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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    17 Nov 2023, 04:51PM
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Computer Age Management Services:

    This capital markets company has risen by 19.2% in the past week, touching its 52-week high of Rs 2,890 per share on Thursday. In Q2FY24, it posted a 17.1% YoY growth in net profit to Rs 84.5 crore and a 13.5% YoY increase in revenue to Rs 275.1 crore, in line with Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates. The company appears in screeners of stocks with increasing revenue and net profit over the past four quarters.

    The stock’s EBITDA margin has expanded by 150 bps YoY to 58%, aided by improved operational leverage, as its expenses grew more slowly than the revenue. The company’s revenue increased on the back of growth in client additions, transaction volumes, and the SIP book. The company’s assets under management (AUM) also rose by 20.3% YoY, owing to growing interest in mutual funds among retail investors. 

    Commenting on the performance, Anuj Kumar, the Managing Director of the company, said, “Our overall assets under service touched a lifetime high of Rs.32.6 lakh crore, and our mutual fund market share is steady at 68.5%. Equity assets grew by 28% YoY on the back of rising share in equity sales alongside steady market movement.”

    Post results, Motilal Oswal Financial Services maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 2,950 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 4.1%. The brokerage believes that the company’s mutual fund segment will deliver strong growth in AUM in the long term. It also foresees favourable macro triggers and investments in the non-mutual fund segment boosting revenue growth. It expects the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 13.5% over FY23-25.

    2. Eicher Motors:

    This automobile manufacturer hit its 52-week high of Rs 3,898 on Friday, marking a 9.1% rise over the past week. The price rise followed the announcement of its Q2FY24 financial results. The company’s net profit has increased by 54.7% YoY to Rs 1,016.2 crore, beating Trendlyne Forecaster’s estimate by 3.7%. It also reported its highest-ever revenue from operations of Rs 4,388.3 crore, a 19.6% YoY increase. In Q2FY24, Royal Enfield registered its highest wholesale performance with close to 2,29,500 motorcycles sold, while VECV also recorded its highest sales of 19,551 units. 

    Despite the introduction of premium motorcycles by competitors like Bajaj Auto and Hero Motocorp, in collaboration with international brands Triumph and Harley Davidson respectively, Eicher Motors’  management says that it is confident about their position in the >250cc motorcycle segment. 

    In the past month, Royal Enfield launched the new Himalayan 450 and an updated Bullet with a J-series engine. Managing Director Siddhartha Lal said, “Both motorcycles have spurred immense consumer interest across the world.” The management believes that the new Himalayan has the potential to become a “game-changer” in the export market, where it currently maintains its market share (8% in America, 9% in Europe and 9% in EMEA) despite a declining industry trend. 

    Eicher Motors is also venturing into electric mobility, having presented an electric motorcycle concept based on the Himalayan Testbed. In addition, VECV has begun delivering electric buses to customers and signed MoUs with leading e-commerce and mobility firms for the supply of over 1000 electric trucks and buses. 

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on Eicher Motors on the back of its strong quarterly performance and new launches, but remains cautious in the face of increasing competition. The company also appears in a screener for stocks with recommendations or target price upgrades by brokers.

    3. Manappuram Finance:

    This banking and finance company has risen by over 11.2% in the past week, touching a new 52-week high on Thursday. This rise follows its Q2FY24 net profit increasing by 20.4% YoY to Rs 419.9 crore, beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 7%. The rise in share price places the company in a screener of stocks with prices above their short, medium and long-term moving averages. The company’s revenue has also increased by 16.5%, driven by its gold loan and microfinance segments. 

    The strong performance is led by robust growth in the company’s AUM (up 27% YoY) and net interest income or NII (up 26% YoY). The AUM for the quarter increased by 27% to Rs 38,950 crore, driven by healthy growth in the MFI (microfinance institution), vehicles, and housing segments. Further, its gold loan AUM (which constitutes 53% of the total AUM) expanded by 8% YoY. VP Nandakumar, the Managing Director, said, “The share of non-gold vertical in our total AUM is now at 47%, in line with our objective of achieving a 50-50 portfolio between gold and non-gold verticals.” The company has guided for a gold loan growth of 8-10% YoY in FY24 and is focused on maintaining pricing discipline in gold loans despite high competition. 

    Following the results, Axis Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating, with a target price of Rs 160. The brokerage believes Manappuram Finance is well-positioned to continue its growth momentum as it focuses on growing its AUM with a sustainable diversified mix, maintaining its stable asset quality. 

    4. Power Finance Corporation:

    This banking and finance company has risen by 14.1% over the past week till Friday, led by its stellar Q2FY24 earnings released on November 8. The stock outperformed the benchmark Nifty Financial Servicesby 13.7% during the same period. The company’s net profit rose by 27% YoY to Rs 3,847 crore and revenue grew by 16% YoY to Rs 17,964 crore. The top-line growth was driven by an increase in lending in the energy transition segment. The company beat Trendlyne Forecaster’s net profit estimates by 24%. 

    According to the management, the company has been able to maintain its market share of 25% in the renewable energy segment due to a sharp rise in disbursals. It noted that the renewable energy space alone has seen a 37% YoY growth in disbursals compared to H1FY23. The company's total disbursals surged by 150% YoY, from Rs 21,790 crore in H1FY23 to Rs 55,562 crore in H1FY24, due to increased lending to renewable energy projects. Higher recoveries and improved diligence in loan disbursals have led to a 98 bps fall in the firm’s Gross NPAs (bad loans) from 4.38% in H1FY23 to 3.4% in H1FY24.

    “In the medium to long term, we see existing business to be complemented by opportunities in energy transition and E-mobility,” noted its CMD Parminder Chopra. The firm is looking to maintain its leadership in lending to renewable energy projects, especially in the North Eastern region of India. In the present quarter, the firm has also forayed into airport funding projects, diversifying its revenue sources further.

    5. NTPC: 

    This electric utilities firm rose 5.7% in the past week following the announcement of its Q2FY24 results. The company’s net profits improved by 38.2% YoY, while its revenue only saw a marginal increase of 1.8% YoY due to lower income from the generation segment. According to Trendlyne’s Technicals, the stock has risen by 15.7% in the past three months. 

    The company’s EBITDA margins have expanded by 260 bps on account of lower fuel expenses. In H1FY24, NTPC increased its total capacity by 5.1% YoY, with the majority of it in thermal capacity. This will help the company manage inconsistencies in renewable energy production.

    The company has set a capex target of Rs 28,400 crore for FY24, with around 47% of it already utilised in the first half. The stock appears in a screener of companies with improving quarterly net profit and profit margins.

    NTPC has also reduced its reliance on imported coal, with production from its captive mines rising by 29.4% YoY and imports dropping by 50% YoY. Despite a 3.4% YoY decrease in average tariff from April to September 2023, the firm offset it by increasing its electricity generation by 5.6% YoY in Q2FY24.

    BOB Capital says that the company's strategic shift towards renewable energy makes it a solid player in the green energy sector. Due to this diversification, the brokerage believes that the company is well-positioned in the power generation space. It maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    16 Nov 2023, 10:39PM

    Chart of the week: Superstar investors’ net worth recovers over the past two quarters after a volatile FY23

    By Bhavani Eswar

    Retail investors often look to superstar investors for insights on which stocks and sectors are worth investing in. Some even invest in shadow portfolios to follow the strategies of these investors. In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyse top superstar investors’ net worth over the past four quarters using data from Trendlyne’s Superstar investor dashboard.

    Despite the Indian equity market’s high volatility, the net worth of most superstar investors rose over the past year. 

    The Indian Volatility Index, Nifty VIX, saw significant fluctuations and increased by 7.6% and 13.5% in December 2022 and January 2023, respectively. This heightened volatility and the muted performance by the Nifty 50 led to many superstars registering negative returns in Q3 and Q4FY23. The Nifty 50 fell by almost 2% in each quarter during this period.  

    Superstar investors’ winning formula: low-debt stocks with high returns 

    Top holdings drive superstar investors' net worth growth in the past year

    Despite the high volatility in Q3 and Q4FY23, the one-year change in most superstar investors’ net worth has increased significantly overall. Their strategy of staying invested and adding investments when markets fell, has helped most superstar investors’ net worth grow in the past year.  

    Rekha Jhunjhunwala leads the pack with a 209% surge in her net worth. This steep growth is largely due to inheriting her late husband Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio and consistently increasing her stake in Titan. In addition, Titan and Tata Motors, her top two holdings, have risen by 24% and 57% over the past year. 

    An interesting trend among these investors is their preference for companies with low or no debt. For instance, Vijay Kedia’s top three holdings, Atul Auto, Tejas Network, and Elecon Engineering Company, which form half of his portfolio, either have minimal debt or are debt-free. This strategy of combining low debt with high revenue growth has yielded results for him. 

    Mid and small-cap stocks, known for their higher risk-reward ratio, have delivered high returns to investors like Kedia. Two of his top three holdings have risen by almost 100% over the last year. Kedia’s net worth increased by 65% and 40% in Q1 and Q2FY24, respectively. Overall, his portfolio has grown by 88% over the past year, making him the second-best performer after Rekha Jhunjhunwala.

    The portfolios of many superstar investors are dominated by stocks from sectors like retailing, banking and finance, and textile apparel. More than 70% of these portfolios have exposure to these sectors. The average revenue growth for the top holdings of Ashish Kacholia, and Anil Kumar Goel over the past three years has exceeded 100%. Consequently, their net worth has increased significantly, by 38% and 35%, respectively, in the past year.

    Monish Parbai and Nemish Shah have seen moderate growth  in their net worth due to the subdued performance of their top holdings like Sunteck Realty and Lakshmi Machine Works. 

    Sunil Singhania’s portfolio has 28 stocks spread across sectors like software and services, metals and mining, and consumer durables. Two of his top three holdings have risen by over 100%, contributing to his net worth rising by more than 30% in the past year.

    In contrast, two superstar investors, Dolly Khanna and Radhakishan Damani, have reported a decline in net worth over the past year. More than 95% of Radhakishan Damani’s portfolio was invested in Avenue Supermarts which fell by 8% last year. Dolly Khanna, on the other hand, cut her stake in several holdings in Q3 and Q4FY23, leading to a fall in her net worth. 

    Superstar investors are not immune to market volatility. But while their portfolios fell in Q3 and Q4FY23, in line with the broader market, have bounced back strongly since then. 

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    The Baseline
    15 Nov 2023
    Domestic investors unseat FIIs as the market movers | Screener: Outperformer stocks with rising FII holdings

    Domestic investors unseat FIIs as the market movers | Screener: Outperformer stocks with rising FII holdings

    By Shreesh Biradar

    For a long time, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) ruled Dalal Street. Their mood decided which way the Nifty and the Sensex swung, and they were the main players in the market.

    That has changed recently - FIIs equity AUM in India is around $586 billion, while DIIs are roughly around $580 billion. The gap between FIIs and domestic investors has narrowed by around $140 billion in just two years.

    The rise of mutual funds, pension funds, insurance schemes and discount brokers has helped increase domestic and retail investments into equities. The Indian population’s equity exposure has more than doubled from 1.3% in 2011 to 3% in 2023. While this penetration rate is still peanuts compared to the US market's 55%, the jump has been enough to skew the markets towards domestic investors.

    The surge in domestic institutional investor (DII) money has taken a bite out of FII dominance – domestic inflows  have outpaced FIIs in the past 18 months. DIIs have invested $39 billion in the equity market, while FIIs have withdrawn $24 billion. DIIs have been the wall against potential declines for the Nifty 50 .

    What is driving FII money out? Higher bond yields in the US, cheaper equity valuations, and a stronger dollar have been major reasons.

    In this week’s Analyticks:

    • FII sour on India, for now: Should retail investors worry about FII outflows?
    • Screener: Stocks with rising FII holdings and strong Q2FY24 performance 

    Let’s get into it.


    Smallcaps jump, FIIs withdraw from large caps 

    Since the beginning of 2023, FIIs have withdrawn nearly Rs 52,188 crore from the Indian equity market. In the same period, DIIs invested around Rs 1,55,861 crore.

    DIIs sustain Indian markets amid FII outflow over the past 18 months 

    DII money has compensated for FII outflows, but the investment preferences of these two sets of investors are very different.

    The Nifty 50 has risen by 6.8% since the start of 2023. In contrast, the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 have jumped 30.1% and 39.9%, respectively. The growth in smallcap and midcap stocks is disproportionately high, thanks to DII interest in these stocks. FII investments have been mainly in large, and some mid-cap companies.

    In largecaps, the damage from FII outflows has been cushioned a bit by DII inflows. But in smallcap stocks, the sheer volume of DII investments has resulted in remarkable returns. The low market cap of the Smallcap index also means that it benefits from even modest DII inflows.

    For example, an inflow of Rs 100 crore into a company with a market cap of Rs 1,00,000 crore is unlikely to move its stock price much. But the same amount can do wonders for a stock with a Rs 10,000 crore market cap.

    Higher US interest rates pull FII money from India

    With US treasury yields near a 16-year high of 5%, FIIs are pulling money out of Indian stock markets. Since April 2022, when US interest rates began to rise, FIIs have taken out nearly Rs 2,00,269 crore. Rising US interest rates make it expensive to borrow money for Indian investments.

    Historically, Indian indices fall with a rise in US treasury bond yields, due to FII outflows. However, the recent DII inflows have cushioned the impact this time. DIIs have invested Rs 3,27,858 crore from April 2022 to October 2023.

    DII investments buffer the impact of FII selling 

    The dollar also recently breached its previous high of Rs 83 against the rupee. A stronger dollar makes investments in Indian equities more expensive, as a depreciating rupee reduces gains. The dollar-adjusted returns of the Nifty 50 stand at 6.1% for 2023. The relatively cheaper valuation of US equities compared to their Indian counterparts also makes the US market more attractive for FIIs.  

    With lower PEs, stocks in the US are cheaper than in India

    For instance, Nifty IT is expensive at 26 PE, higher than Nasdaq 100’s 23.2. US stocks also have the advantage of a global presence, while Indian stocks are limited to domestic markets (except for IT)

    Despite outflows, India remains a top choice for fund managers

    The IMF projects India’s GDP growth at 6.3% for 2023 and 2024, the highest among emerging markets. Even China is expected to trail behind India, with a growth of 5% and 4.2% in 2023 and 2024. India’s inflation, currently at 4.5%, is expected to decline further thanks to falling vegetable and crude oil prices. 

    This is particularly significant as many countries are struggling with price increases, economic slowdowns, and political tensions. In contrast, India’s huge domestic consumer market has helped the global recovery, making it a significant player. These factors make India an attractive option for foreign fund managers.


    India tops as the leading FPI destination in 2023

    Unlike FIIs, selling from foreign portfolio managers has been limited as they largely invest in indexes (like ETFs) rather than single stocks, and are governed by weightages.

    Foreign portfolio managers invested nearly $12.2 billion into India from January 2023 to October 2023. In contrast, China fell out of favor with recent US sanctions and complex rules around foreign investments, and saw FPI outflows of $7.8 billion. 

    Capital goods sector leads in FPI inflow since January 2023 

    India's capital goods sector, especially the FMCG segment, has seen the highest FPI inflows. Increased market penetration in rural areas and the premiumization of products have made capital goods a favoured sector for FPIs. However, India’s extensive imports of Russian oil, which risk attracting US sanctions, have made some FPIs take out money from the oil&gas sector. 

    While foreign portfolio managers show confidence in the Indian market, FIIs have been more fickle. DIIs have been sticking around, actively investing without any signs of slowing down.

    Once the US Fed starts to reduce interest rates, as expected in the second half of 2024, the Indian equity market will likely see an influx of FII funds again, pushing the market to new heights. Until then, it seems that DIIs will run the show.


    Screener: Stocks with increased FII holding, strong performance in Q2FY24 and outperforming the Nifty 50

    Five-Star Business Finance has the highest FII change

    As the shareholding data for Q2FY24 rolls out, we take a look at stocks with the highest rise in foreign institutional investor (FII) holdings. This screener consists of stocks that have seen a rise in FII holdings over the past quarter with strong financial performance in Q4FY23, outperforming both their industries and the Nifty 50 index.

    The stocks in the screener are from industries like banks, IT consulting & software, auto parts & equipment, pharmaceuticals and non-banking finance companies (NBFCs). Major stocks in the screener are Five-Star Business Finance, Medplus Health Services, Adani Power, Blue Star, CreditAccess Grameen and CE Info Systems. 

    Five-Star Business Finance tops the list with the highest rise in FII holding. It increased by 41.5 percentage points QoQ to reach 50.2% in Q4FY23. Funds like Tpg Asia Vii Sf Pte, Sirius Ii Pte and Norwest Venture Partners X - Mauritius have bought 14.3%, 6% and 5.3% stakes, respectively, in the NBFC. The company’s stock price has risen by 6.6% over the past month, boosted by strong Q2FY24 results.

    Medplus Health Services has also seen its FII holding rise by 7.5 percentage points QoQ to 12.4% during the quarter. While major buyers of the healthcare supplies stock were the Steadview Capital Mauritius and the Government of Singapore, which bought 1.7% and 1.5% stakes, respectively, Fidelity Funds - India Focus Fund increased its stake by 1.4%. The stock has risen by 6.6% over the past month, owing to strong Q2FY24 results.


    You can find more screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    13 Nov 2023
    Five analyst picks from cement & construction, general industrials

    Five analyst picks from cement & construction, general industrials

    By Suhas Reddy

    This week, we take a look at the top analyst picks from the cement & construction and general industrials sectors.

    1. Cummins India:

    BoB Capital Markets keeps its ‘Buy’ rating on this industrial machinery manufacturer with a target price of Rs 2,200. This implies an upside of 23.7%. In Q2FY24, its net profit grew by 23.1% YoY to Rs 329.1 crore but its revenue fell 1.8% YoY. 

    Analysts Vinod Chari, Swati Jhunjhunwala and Arshia Khosla attribute its net profit growth to strong performance in the industrial and distribution segments, which have expanded by 23% and 20% YoY respectively. They add that the firm’s EBITDA margin benefitted from lower commodity costs and a larger share of high-powered products in the mix. The analysts believe that the company’s market leadership helped increase its margin, as it was able to maintain its prices despite low input costs.

    Chari, Jhunjhunwala and Khosla see sustainable long-term growth in the domestic power market and believe that the company is well-positioned to adapt to the new emission norms. They expect the firm’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 15.7% over FY23-25.  

    2. Ashoka Buildcon:

    HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this highway developer with a target price of Rs 202, indicating an upside of Rs 44.5%. In Q1FY24, the company’s net profit increased by 76.4% YoY to Rs 112.3 crore, while its revenue grew by 19% YoY to Rs 2,195.3 crore, in line with the brokerage's estimates. 

    According to analysts Parikshit D Kandpal, Nikhil Kanodia and Manoj Rawat, the growth in EBITDA margin (up 463 basis points QoQ to 9.2%) is from declining overhead expenses. As the company didn't receive any new orders in Q2FY24, its order book stands at Rs 14,800 crore. The company has set its FY24 inflow guidance at Rs 5,000-6,000 crore due to a shorter ordering period in an  election year, and weaker-than-expected NHAI ordering. 

    Despite these challenges, the analysts remain optimistic about Ashoka Buildcon on the back of its “strong order book, improving visibility on asset monetization, and likely cash inflow from asset monetization”.

    3. JK Cement:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this cement manufacturer with a target price of Rs 3,900. This indicates an upside of 13.9%. In Q2FY24, the company reported a 58.5% YoY rise in net profit to Rs 178.1 crore, while its revenue grew by 23.7% YoY. According to analysts Sanjeev Kumar Singh and Mudit Agarwal, the EBITDA of Rs 4,700 crore is led by higher white cement volumes in its UAE subsidiary, JK Cement (Fujairah), and lower costs.” The white cement volume included a one-off large order (40,000-tonne shipment) to Australia.

    The management of JK Cement expects demand to remain strong, barring some moderation in November 2023 due to festivals and state elections. The analysts state that cement prices have increased in the company’s key markets. They say, “JK cement has shown strong volume growth, aided by capacity expansion,” and estimate its volumes to grow at a 12% CAGR over FY24- 26, higher than the industry’s average growth rate. 

    4. GE T&D India:

    ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this industrial machinery company and raises the target price to Rs 460 from Rs 315. This implies an upside of 19%. In Q2FY24, the company posted a net profit of Rs 75.6 crore, compared to a net loss of Rs 13.5 crore in Q2FY23. Its revenue fell marginally by 0.4% YoY to Rs 697.8 crore.  

    Analysts Mohit Kumar, Ashwani Sharma, Bharat Kumar Jain and Nikhil Abhyankar remain positive about the company as its order inflow in Q2 grew by 121% YoY and operating margins expanded by 791 bps YoY to 8.7%. They expect an uptick in demand from the transmission segment, stating, “Transmission capital expenditure is likely to see a huge uptick, driven by the need to build renewables infrastructure. To accelerate the build-out, the government has launched a Rs 2.4 lakh crore plan for the new grid.”

    The analysts cite the firm’s robust order pipeline and improving margins for the increased target price. They expect the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 17.8% over FY23-26. 

    5. HG Infra Engineering:

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this construction & engineering firm but cuts the target price to Rs 1,090 from 1,140. This indicates an upside of 28.9%. In Q2FY24, its net profit increased by 17.3% YoY to Rs 96.1 crore and revenue grew by 20% YoY. 

    Although analysts Uttam K Srimal and Shikha Doshi are positive about the company’s prospects, they have reduced the target price due to the management’s revision of order inflow guidance to Rs 5,000-6,000 crore from Rs 8,000-9,000 crore in FY24. The company cites delays in tendering by the National Highways Authority of India for the revision. 

    However, the analysts are confident about the company’s strong order pipeline and its focus on diversification. They note, “The company is looking to diversify more in railways, metros, and solar projects. The management expects 20-25% of its order book to come from non-road projects in the next 2-3 years.” 

    Overall, they expect the firm’s strong order book, execution prowess, asset monetisation and diversification into other sectors to drive healthy revenue growth. The analysts project the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 16.2% over FY23-25. 

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    10 Nov 2023
    Which stocks did superstar investors buy in Q2FY24?

    Which stocks did superstar investors buy in Q2FY24?

    By Abhiraj Panchal

    Superstar investors like Rekha Jhunjhunwala, Ashish Kacholia and Vijay Kedia are closely watched for their buys and sells. Their picks help investors gain insights into current market trends, and identify interesting stocks. In this piece, we look at some investments made by these superstar investors during Q2FY24.

    The chart below compares superstar investors' current portfolio net worth to that of the previous quarter. Net worth is impacted not just by changes in current holdings, but also by new buys and sells. 

    All superstars see a rise in their net worth in Q2FY24

    Each superstar investor's public portfolios reveal approaches fairly unique to their investing style. The chart below provides a breakdown of the sectors that hold the largest share of each investor’s portfolio. 

    Industries preferred by superstars

    Rare Enterprises (Rakesh and Rekha Jhunjhunwala) prefers textiles, apparels and accessories stocks, while Sunil Singhania favours chemicals and petrochemicals. Ashish Kacholia and Porinju Veliyath lean towards software and services. Vijay Kedia’s favoured sector is automobiles & auto components, while Dolly Khanna’s preference is skewed towards oil and gas.

    Rare Enterprises (Rakesh and Rekha Jhunjhunwala) remains conservative in Q2

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio, now managed by Rekha Jhunjhunwala and Rare Enterprises following his passing, grew by 1.6% QoQ to Rs 39,507 crore in Q2FY24. The firm increased its stakes in six companies and made one new addition in the July-September quarter. Rare Enterprises added a new investment in Karur Vysya Bank, a scheduled commercial bank, with a 4.6% stake buy. 

    Rare Enterprises buys a 4.6% stake in Karur Vysya Bank

    The investment firm also increased its holding in D B Realty by 0.6% to 2%. The realty company rose by 115.1% in Q2FY24. It also raised its stake in Fortis Healthcare, a healthcare facilities provider, by 0.2% to 4.7%. The stock rose 8.3% in Q2FY24.  

    The Jhunjhunwala portfolio added minor stakes in Tata group companies – Tata Motors and Titan. It also bought a minor stake in the IT training services firm, Aptech. 

    Ashish Kacholia adds multiple stocks to his portfolio 

    Ashish Kacholia’s net worth rose by 25.3% QoQ to Rs 2,541.1 crore in Q2FY24. During the quarter, he added multiple small and micro-cap stocks into his portfolio. He acquired an 8.5% stake in Universal Autofoundry, an auto parts manufacturer. He also expanded into the general industrial sector, securing stakes of 6.4%, 5.4% and 2.2% in Dhabriya Polywood, BEW Engineering and Balu Forge Industries respectively.

    Ashish Kacholia buys an 8.5% stake in Universal Autofoundry

    The marquee investor also added Vasa Denticity, a healthcare equipment supplier, to his portfolio and now holds 3.8% of the company. He also purchased a 2.8% stake in an education company, NIIT Learning Systems and 1.8% and 1.7% stakes in Aeroflex Industries (iron and steel products company) and Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services (software and services company), respectively, during the quarter. 

    Kacholia increased his stakes in Faze Three and Agarwal Industrial Corp to 5.4% and 4% from the previous holdings of 5.2% and 3.9%, respectively, in Q1.

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund adds two new small-cap companies

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund saw its net worth rise by 12.6% QoQ to Rs 2,382.4 crore in Q2FY24. It added TTK Healthcare (a pharma company) and EMS (a utilities company) to its portfolio, with o1.1% and 1.7% stake additions respectively. 

    Sunil Singhania adds TTK Healthcare and EMS to the portfolio

    Besides the new buys, Abakkus made minor portfolio adjustments through selective purchases. It increased its share in Rupa & Company, a textile firm, by a marginal 0.1%, taking the holding up to 4.2%. It also bought a 0.1% stake in IIFL Securities, and now holds a 3.3% stake. The capital market company’s stock price grew by 42.3% during Q2FY24.

    The fund also purchased minor stakes in two industrial machinery manufacturers, Dynamatic Technologies and The Anup Engineering. It now holds 2.9% and 3.9% stakes respectively in these companies.

    Vijay Kedia buys stakes in Atul Auto for three consecutive quarters 

    Vijay Kedia’s portfolio net worth increased by 41% QoQ to Rs 1,388.8 crore in Q2FY24. He added Om Infra to his public portfolio in Q2 by buying a 2.6% stake in the construction company. 

    Vijay Kedia buys a 6% stake in Atul Auto

    In a show of continued confidence, Kedia raised his stake in Atul Auto by 6% and now holds 20.9%. This marks the third consecutive quarter of increased investment in this auto components manufacturer since Q3FY23. He also bought a minor stake in Vaibhav Global and now holds 2% of the textile manufacturer. 

    Dolly Khanna continues her buying spree from Q1FY24

    Dolly Khanna’s net worth rose by 16.5% QoQ to Rs 359.8 crore in Q2FY24. Continuing her buying streak from Q1FY24, Dolly Khanna added four new companies to her portfolio and increased her stakes in three stocks during the July-September quarter. 

    The ace investor bought a fresh stake (1.3%) in KCP Sugar & Industries Corp, a small-cap sugar company. She also added another sugar company to her portfolio by purchasing a 1.1% stake in Rajshree Sugars & Chemicals.

    Dolly Khanna buys a 1.3% stake in KCP Sugar & Industries Corp

    The two other new additions to the superstar’s portfolio include Salzer Electronics (an electrical products manufacturer) and Prakash Industries (an iron & steel products company). She bought 1.1% and 1% stakes in them respectively. 

    Khanna increased her stake in Prakash Pipes by 0.5% to 3.2% and raised her holding in Talbros Automotive Components by 0.1% to 1.6%. She also added a minor stake in Control Print. 

    Porinju Veliyath adds three new companies to his portfolio

    Porinju Veliyath’s net worth grew by 38% QoQ to Rs 208.7 crore in Q2FY24. He added three new companies to his portfolio and increased his stake in one company. His new additions include Arrow Greentech (a plastic products maker), in which he bought a 1.1% stake. He also purchased a 1% stake in Singer India (a household appliances firm) and P G Foils (an aluminium company). 

    Porinju buys a 1.1% stake in Arrow Greentech

    Porinju increased his stake in Aurum Proptech by 0.2% to 3.5%. The IT consulting & software firm gained 6.4% in Q2FY24.

    Mohnish Pabrai continues to invest in Edelweiss

    Mohnish Pabrai’s net worth in Q2FY24 increased by 25.6% QoQ to Rs 1,364.9 crore. He increased his stake in Edelweiss Financial Services for the fourth consecutive quarter with an additional purchase of 0.1%. 

          Mohnish Pabrai buys a 0.1% stake in Edelweiss Financial Services

    9
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    The Baseline
    10 Nov 2023
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation: 

    This refineries/petro-products firm rose 6.3% on November 7 after reporting a net profit of Rs 5,827 crore in Q2FY24, against a net loss of Rs 2,475.7 crore in Q2FY23. This turnaround was due to higher refining margins and volumes. According to Trendlyne’s Technicals, the company rose 17.4% in the past week, outperforming the Nifty Oil & Gas index by 14.1%. The company also beat Trendlyne Forecaster's profit estimates by 55.7%.

    The stock was recently in the news after rising 7.5% on November 8, aided by a 10% decline in Brent crude oil prices the previous week. This surge in stock price has placed the company in a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

    The management plans to upgrade its Vizag refinery, to increase production by 67% to 15 metric tonnes. This upgrade will be completed by Q4FY24, and is expected to increase the firm’s refining margins by 25% per barrel. Additionally, HPCL’s Rs 37,000 crore investment in the Barmer refinery project in Rajasthan will help the company enter the oil to chemical segment.

    In Q2, HPCL's gross debt was Rs 51,800 crore, a decrease of 24% YoY. However, debt levels are still relatively high due to an ambitious capex plan of Rs 75,000 crore over the next five years, and an annual spending rate of approximately Rs 14,000-15,000 crore. 

    ICICI Securities, for the rest of FY24, expects lower gross refining margins (GRMs) but stronger retail margins compared to Q2 averages. It projects increased volumes in both the refining and marketing segments, driven by the expansion of Vizag facility and the construction of the Barmer Refinery. It also foresees a recovery in fuel consumption by H2FY24. The broker maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.

    2. Ratnamani Metals & Tubes:

    This iron & steel company has risen 18.6% over the past week to touch its all-time high of Rs 3,465 per share. The rise came after it announced a 65.9% YoY growth in its Q2FY24 net profit to Rs 163.4 crore on November 2. Revenue increased by 25.7% YoY due to growth in the steel tubes & pipes and bearing rings segments. Its net profit beat Trendlyne's Forecaster estimates by 40.6%, but revenue missed by 1.9%.

    The company’s net profit has improved on the back of its EBITDA margin expanding by 554 bps YoY to 22% in Q2FY24 due to a  better product mix.  The stock appears in a screenerfor companies with  quarterly growth in net profit and profit margin. However, its order book fell by 8% YoY to Rs 2,975 crore, which includes Rs 607 crore worth of export orders. The order book fell due to weak demand in the carbon steel segment. 

    Manoj Sanghvi, the business head, said, “In the future, we expect to see good traction in the core energy segment, and other critical applications across various industrial segments. This will help us deepen our customer base by expanding the product basket.”

    Post results, Keynote Capitals downgraded the stock to a ‘Neutral’ rating from ‘Buy’, with a target price of Rs 3,113 per share. This indicates a potential downside of 6.9%. The brokerage believes that it is difficult for the company to maintain its high growth levels in net profit and revenue. It expects the company’s sales to grow at a CAGR of 17.3% over FY22-26.

    3. Prince Pipes & Fittings:

    This pipes manufacturer rose 15.3% in intraday trade on Wednesday, after it announced its Q2FY24 results. The street cheered as the company was back in the black on a YoY basis, with a net profit of Rs 70.6 crore in Q2FY24, against a loss of Rs 24.1 crore in Q2FY23. Its profitability has improved on the back of normalising Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) prices, improved product mix, and better pricing. Its EBITDA margin shot up to 14.3% from -1.8% in Q2FY23. The company also beat Trendlyne Forecaster’s profit estimates by 55.9%. It shows up in a screener for companies with improving cash flows and high durability scores. 

    The management has guided for an improvement in sales volumes, which will be on par with its peers. Over the past few quarters, the firm’s volume growth had lagged behind the industry’s due to its limited presence in key segments such as high-density Polyethylene (HDPE) pipes (used in government infrastructure projects). Prince Pipes has expanded its production capacity for HDPE pipes, which helped improve volumes in Q2. Its volume growth had been impacted by unfavourable pricing, which the firm rectified with its recent price adjustments. 

    The management expects PVC prices to remain stable and has guided for an  EBITDA margin of 12-14% over the medium term. ICICI Securities believes that the company will see healthy revenue growth, led by improved demand from the plumbing, infrastructure and agriculture sectors. 

    4. Jyothy Labs:

    This FMCG company hit its all-time high of Rs 424.7 on Thursday, marking a 14.9% rise over the past week. The spike came after the company reported 61.1% YoY growth in its Q2FY24 net profit to Rs 104.2 crore, with revenue increasing by 12.2% YoY to Rs 745.6 crore. It beat Trendlye Forecaster’s net profit estimates by 14%, while revenue met the forecast. The company features in a screener for durable stocks with improving cash flow.

    Jyothy Labs’ expansion into new geographies, market share gain and strength across segments have been key factors behind its growth. The EBITDA margin expanded by 628 basis points YoY to 18.5% due to a reduction in raw material costs. The expansion was primarily in the fabric care segment (43% of total sales), where margins grew by 1,100 basis points to 26.1%. All segments, except for household insecticides, reported double-digit growth. The fabric care and dishwashing segments saw revenues rise by 11% YoY and 10% YoY respectively, while personal care reported a 22% YoY increase. The company has managed to sustain demand despite constant inflationary pressures affecting FMCG products. 

    However, the management has noted a rise in competitive pressures and is focused on boosting volumes and maintaining growth rates. Managing Director M R Jyothy stated, “Jyothy Labs will handle increasing competition with promotional spending and wider distribution.” For FY24, the management expects sales to continue their growth trajectory, driven by volume. 

    ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ call on Jyothy Labs, projecting an EBITDA and net profit CAGR of 31% and 39%, respectively, over FY24-25. This outlook is based on the management’s focus on market share gains and volume growth. 

    5. Trent

    This retailing company has risen around 11.2% in the past four days, and touched its all-time high today, after strong Q2 earnings. Trent’s net profit surged by 152.3% YoY to Rs 234.7 crore, beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 69.8%. This was driven by lower finance expenses. Its revenue also improved by 52.7% YoY, aided by growth in its garments and emerging categories (which include beauty and personal care, innerwear, and footwear). 

    With a 19.7% increase in the past month, Trent has outperformed its sector by 15.6%. The rise in share price places it in a screener of companies with strong momentum.

    Its strong performance in Q2 is led by its like-for-like (LFL) growth of 10% and retail expansion. According to ICICI Securities, Trent’s LFL growth is the highest in the apparel space. During the quarter, the company opened six Westside stores and 27 Zudio stores, taking the total store count to 222 and 411, respectively. Noel N Tata, the Chairman, said, “We will expand and deepen our store presence with the aim of being closer to customers.”

    The company’s Star business (hypermarket and supermarket store chain) has also reported a 30% YoY increase in revenue, led by strong LFL and volume growth. Axis Securities remains positive about Trent’s performance despite the muted consumer demand environment. It maintains its ‘Buy’ rating with an upgraded target price of Rs 2,750. The brokerage expects the company to deliver strong sales growth in the coming quarters, driven by rapid store expansion.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    08 Nov 2023

    Chart of the Week: Telecom and fertilizers rise the most in the quarter

    By Akshat Singh

    In the world of stock markets, identifying bullish sectors can provide a compass to finding great investments. Sector analysis is essential to diversify your investments, make smart investment decisions, and understand broader trends.

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we examine Trendlyne’s sector dashboard to find the top-performing sectors. For each sector, we analyze the companies contributing to the sector's rise. 

    Telecom equipment and fertilizer sectors rise on government subsidies and schemes

    The telecommunications equipment sector saw an 85.3% share price growth in the past quarter. A primary driver for this surge was ITI, accounting for 90.5% of the sector’s rise, thanks to a 155.3% quarterly increase in its stock price. 

    ITI's expansion into laptop and micro PC manufacturing holds the potential for long-term growth, provided it can establish itself as a reliable and competitive player in this market. 

    The company's track record of benefiting from government initiatives and contracts, and opportunities stemming from global supply chain disruptions have further increased its stock price in the past quarter.

    Next up, we have the fertilizers sector, which has risen 24.5% in the past quarter. This can be attributed to the Centre’s subsidy schemes worth Rs 3,70,000 crore. The Israel-Hamas conflict has also led to an increase in commodity prices due to concerns about the global potash fertilizer supply chain. Ashdod Port, a significant export hub for Israel's potash, is currently operating in emergency mode due to the conflict. This situation places approximately 3% of the world's potash supply at risk, according to Bloomberg. Other major contributors to this sector’s performance  were The Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore and Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals, with contributions of 76.1% and 6.4%, respectively to sector growth, and quarterly stock price increases of 54.5% and 19.9%.

    Realty sector rises, helped by expansion and new launches

    We now turn to the realty sector, which has surged by 23.2% in the past quarter. This can be attributed to a positive shift in consumer sentiment, as per Knight Frank’s NAREDCO real estate sentiment index. The optimism of real estate developers primarily stems from the RBI's decision to refrain from raising interest rates for the fourth time and a spike in residential demand during the festive season. REA India says, “Post-pandemic, the demand for home ownership and larger homes, thanks to hybrid working models, have offset concerns about high interest rates.”  

    Major contributors to this sector's growth were DLF and Macrotech Developers. These stocks made contributions of 24.2% and 14.2%, respectively, owing to their quarterly stock price increases of 21.6% and 22.2%. DLF hit a new 52-week high of Rs 525.8 on September 5, following the announcement of its plans to launch a series of residential projects worth nearly Rs 20,000 crore across India during this fiscal year. Macrotech Developers acquired seven land parcels to develop housing projects worth Rs 14,300 crore in Mumbai, Pune, and Thane.

    Gems & jewellery outshines textile, apparel and accessories

    The textiles, apparels & accessories sector rose 18.6% in the past quarter, led by the gems and jewellery industry’s impressive growth of 20.7%. Titan Company, with a 28.8% contribution to the sector's growth and Kalyan Jewellers India, contributing 23.8%, saw their stock prices surge by 12.1% and 87.8%, respectively, over the past quarter. 

    Meanwhile, the media sector also performed well, with a 16.9% increase in the past quarter. This achievement was made possible through contributions from Sun TV Network (35.2%) and Zee Entertainment Enterprises (23.1%), driven by quarterly stock price rises of 24.7% and 16%, respectively. Notably, PwC expects the Indian media and entertainment sector to grow at a CAGR of 9.5%, ultimately reaching a market value of $73.6 billion by 2027. PwC expects subscription service revenues to grow at a 13% CAGR, reaching $2.6 billion, while ad-supported services (AVOD) are poised for faster growth from a smaller base.

    The telecom services sector also rose by 13.4% in the past quarter, driven by significant contributions by Vodafone Idea (49.1%) and Bharti Airtel (36.4%). During this quarter, Vodafone Idea's stock jumped by 74.5%, while Bharti Airtel saw a 6.9% rise. On November 2, Vodafone Idea increased by 7.4%, following reports of HDFC Bank granting a loan of Rs 2,000 crore to the company to assist in covering license fees and 5G spectrum fees.

    Construction sector soars on the back of strong order book and new orders

    The cement and construction sector saw a 11.3% increase in the past quarter, thanks to Larsen & Toubro and UltraTech Cement making contributions of 35.4% and 9.2%, respectively. Their share prices rose by 14.1% and 6.1% over the quarter. Larsen & Toubro's robust performance can be attributed to its strong order book and the acquisition of new orders. In H1FY24, the company secured orders worth Rs 1.5 lakh crore, and by September 2023, its order book rose by 21.6% YoY to Rs 4.5 lakh crore.

    The transportation sector rose by 10.4% in the past quarter. This increase was primarily fueled by contributions of 43.5% from JSW Infrastructure and 11.8% from Cochin Shipyards, as their respective quarterly stock prices surged by 58.4% and 48.2%. On November 4, JSW Infrastructure's stock price climbed by 9.8%, following its entry into the container train operation business with the acquisition of Sical Multimodal and Rail Transport.

    Finally, we move to the general industrials sector, which posted a 10.3% increase in the past quarter. This surge can be primarily credited to Suzlon Energy and Solar Industries India making notable contributions of 29.6% and 14.7%, respectively. Their stock prices rose by 100.3% and 48%, respectively. Suzlon Energy's upward trajectory is fueled by a robust order book, which includes the construction of wind power plants of 1.5 GW capacity and strategic debt reduction plans

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    The Baseline
    07 Nov 2023
    Five analyst picks this week with high upside

    Five analyst picks this week with high upside

    By Satyam Kumar

    Five analyst picks this week with high upside

    This week, we take a look at analyst picks with high upsides in target price.

    1. Jindal Steel & Power: 

    ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this steel products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 795, indicating an upside of 26.2%. In Q2FY24, the company announced a nearly sevenfold YoY rise in net profit to Rs 1,387.8 crore, while its revenue fell by 9.2% YoY. “The performance missed our estimates but was in line with the consensus,” say analysts Amit Dixit, Mohit Lohia and Pritish Urumkar. 

    The analysts believe that opportunistic export sales drove the sales volume. Despite earnings not reaching the anticipated levels, they remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the company due to the expansion of its Angul-II capex plan to Rs 31,000 crore with a delayed commissioning in Q4FY25. The analysts say, “Our belief is premised in the company’s India-centric focus and steel-focused growth plan, both without pushing leverage higher.” The analysts expect EBITDA of Rs 11,049.3 crore for FY24, growing to Rs 14,507.8 crore in FY25. 

    2. Aether Industries: 

    HDFC Securities retains its ‘Buy’ call on this specialty chemicals manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,200. This indicates an upside of 35.6%. In Q2FY24, the company’s net profit grew by 34.4% YoY to Rs 36.7 crore, while its revenue grew by 21.7% YoY to Rs 178.3 crore. Analysts Nilesh Ghuge, Harshad Katkar and Akshay Mane say, “EBITDA and profit exceeded our estimates by 14% and 19%, respectively, mainly due to lower raw material costs and higher other income.”

    The analysts believe that the demand slowdown in the agrochemical industry was due to inventory destocking at the customer end and reduced realisations across products. They add that Chinese companies flooding the Indian market with aggressively priced products has adversely impacted the performance of domestic players. 

    Despite these challenges, the analysts remain optimistic about the company, on the back of capex-led growth, advanced research and development capabilities, technocratic management, market-leading position in most of its products, strong product pipeline, and marquee customer base.

    3. Carborundum Universal: 

    Prabhudas Lilladher maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this other industrial products manufacturer but lowers its target price to Rs 1,408 from Rs 1,482. This implies a still high upside of 31.8%. In Q2FY24, the company’s net profit rose by 14.5% YoY to Rs 101.9 crore and revenue increased by 1.7% YoY. Analysts Amit Anwani and Nilesh Soni attribute the slowdown in revenue growth to “a softening of demand in Europe, Chinese companies dumping products, and the forex impact”. While the ceramics and abrasive segments saw healthy growth, the electrominerals segment dragged due to negative forex movement. 

    Even though the management lowered its revenue guidance for FY24 to 5% from 10%, the analysts remain positive on the firm’s prospects. Anwani and Soni believe that the company will see healthy growth in the long term on the back of its new product launches, better market reach, strong exports, and improvement in its recently acquired subsidiaries. The analysts expect the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 11.8% over FY23-26.

    4. Bharti Airtel:

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this telecom services provider and raises its target price to Rs 1,155 from Rs 1,025. This indicates an upside of 23.3%. Analyst Omkar Tanksale remains optimistic about the stock despite its Q2FY24 net profit and revenue missing the brokerage’s estimates by 46% and 4% respectively. The company’s net profit has declined by 37.5% YoY and revenue grew by 7.3% YoY. Its bottom line was affected by a one-time charge of Rs 1,570 crore, as it paid interest on an additional tax provision related to the Supreme Court’s new ruling on variable license fees. While revenue was impacted “by the devaluation of Nigeria's Naira and other currencies during the period,” Tanksale added.  

    However, the analyst adds that the company’s EBITDA margins beat his expectations, thanks to an increase in 4G conversions and a better service mix. 

    Tanksale remains optimistic about the telecom giant due to robust growth in its 4G and 5G customer base. He believes that the company will continue to gain market share in the long term, driven by its deep rural penetration, strong subscriber growth, and increasing average revenue per user. He expects the firm’s profit to grow at a CAGR of 13.1% over FY23-25. 

    5. Mahanagar Gas: 

    Motilal Oswal maintains its 'Buy' rating on this non-electrical utilities company with a target price of Rs 1,310, indicating an upside of 24.3%. Analysts Abhishek Santosh Nigam, Aman Chowdhary, and Rohit Thorat are optimistic, with growth set to accelerate in the industrial and commercial piped natural gas segment over the next two years, primarily because CNG is now 50% cheaper than petrol and 20% cheaper than diesel. In Q2FY24, the company’s net profit grew by 106.4% YoY to Rs 338.5 crore, while its revenue grew by 10.6% YoY.

    Nigam, Chowdhary, and Thorat believe that the total volumes met their estimates. They foresee rapid growth in the gas segment over the next two years. The company has implemented consumer-friendly measures, such as removing the take-or-pay clause and offering a discount guarantee to new, heavy-usage customers. The analysts believe that the company is encouraging CNG volume growth in the commercial vehicle segments through incentives like free fuel cards with new vehicle purchases, based on gross vehicle weight.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    03 Nov 2023
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. KPIT Technologies:

    This IT consulting & software company has risen by 10% till Friday, since announcing its Q2FY24 results on Monday. Over the past week, the stock has outperformed the Nifty IT index by 9% as investors reacted to a strong set of numbers. The company’s Q2 net profit grew 5.1% QoQ to Rs 140.9 crore and revenue by 9.3% QoQ, beating Trendlyne Forecaster’s estimates by 5.3% and 2.9%, respectively. This growth was driven by the passenger vehicle vertical and improved net realisations. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with high Piotroski scores (indicating healthy financials) and high return on equity and EPS growth.

    Another contributing factor to the stock’s uptick is the management’s upgraded constant currency revenue growth guidance for FY24 to 37%, a rise from the previous 27-30%. This revision comes despite the soft demand environment in the IT industry. The management expects robust growth across verticals, driven by its strong deal pipeline. In Q2, its total contract value stood at $156 million.

    Kishor Patil, the CEO and MD of KPIT Technologies, said, “Our medium-term business fundamentals and growth drivers remain unchanged. While the geopolitical situation and economic uncertainty across geographies are leading to a softer macro environment, we keep a watchful eye on our clients’ business priorities.”

    In the near term, KPIT Technologies expects sustained growth in the passenger vehicle segment, along with plans to increase client engagement and expand services in the commercial vehicle vertical. The management plans to expand into the off-highway four-wheeler segment in the near term and to broaden its operations to other segments in the mobility space in the longer-term.

    2. Nippon Life India Asset Management:

    This asset management company rose 5.5% on Tuesday, following an 18.6% YoY surge in net profit to Rs 244.4 crore in Q2FY24. The stock has also risen by 20% over the past month, helping it appear in a screener of stocks near their 52-week highs with significant volumes.

    Its revenue improved by 20% YoY to Rs 397.5 crore during the quarter, and it beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for net profit and revenue by 12.5% and 12.6%, respectively. 

    Growth came on the back of a 23% YoY increase in assets under management (AUM) from mutual funds to Rs 3.5 lakh crore during the quarter. The improved mutual fund AUM also contributed to an 18 bps QoQ increase in its equity market share to 6.5%. This growth is aided by a boom in the mutual fund market, which has been growing at a CAGR of 21% over FY20-23. With mutual fund penetration in India as a percentage of GDP at 14%, much lower than the global average, there is significant growth potential for AMCs.

    In Q1FY24, the company was selected to oversee the Employees' Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) and Corpus for Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) investments, which began in early July 2023. The management foresees an additional AUM of Rs 1.5 lakh crore, with an annual profit impact of Rs 5-6 crore in the future.

    The firm’s overall market share (including ETF, equity and debt) increased by 16 bps YoY to 7.5%. Sundeep Sikka, the ED and CEO of the company, commented, “We continue to witness an uptick in overall market share, driven by gains across most asset classes and a strong increase in equity market share.”

    Post results, Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with an upgraded target price of Rs 430 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 9.3%. The brokerage believes that despite the relatively lower penetration of mutual funds in India, the AMC is well-positioned to enhance its AUM growth in the future. It expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 13.8% over FY23-25.

    3. Birlasoft: 

    This IT consulting and software company hit its all-time high of Rs 593 on Friday and rose by 11.1% in the past week. The surge in price comes after the company reported a 5.5% QoQ rise in its Q2FY24 net profit to Rs 145.1 crore, while its revenue grew by 3.8%. It beat Trendlyne Forecaster’s net profit and revenue estimates by 5.7% and 1.4%, respectively. The company also features in a screener for durable stocks with improving cash flow.

    The growth was led by its performance in the Americas, which accounted for 85.8% of revenue and a 5.3% QoQ rise. The manufacturing, BFSI, and digital & cloud segments have grown by 4.3%, 5.3%, and 11.9% QoQ, respectively.  Its EBITDA margin expanded by 52 basis points QoQ to 15.7% despite higher wages and subcontract costs. 

    Deal bookings during the quarter were robust, and recovered from a weak Q1FY24. Birlasoft won a $100 million-plus deal from an existing client and booked new deals worth $167 million during Q2FY24.

    The management has guided for a muted Q3 due to high attrition (27.4% in Q2FY24), which has impacted the IT sector as a whole. But the company says it will be able to limit these attrition effects, and expects growth to recover in Q4. Speaking about future prospects, Chief Financial Officer Kamini Shah said, “We continue to win deals, generate strong cash flows, and are also seeing moderating attrition levels, all of which gives us the confidence to deliver healthy growth in FY24.”

    HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ call on Birlasoft on the back of an upward earnings growth trajectory, supported by an extensive service portfolio, better market positioning compared to peers, and recent management changes. 

    4. Oberoi Realty:

    This realty firm rose 2.8% on October 27 as its Q2FY24 net profit increased by 43.4% YoY to Rs 456.8 crore due to lower operating costs. According to Trendlyne’s Technicals, the stock rose 15.2% and outperformed the Nifty Realty by 2.6% in the past week.

    In Q2FY24, the company’s revenue improved by 76.8% YoY to Rs 1,243.8 crore, exceeding Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue and net profit by 28.5% and 53.3%, respectively. The company’s operating profit margin has also improved by 7.3%  YoY. This helped the company appear in a screener of stocks with improving operating profit and margins.

    The rise in revenue was driven by robust pre-sales bookings of Rs 970 crore across Sky City in Borivali, 360 West in Worli, and a pickup in sales in Enigma in Mulund. The company anticipates launching new projects with a gross development value of Rs 1,800 core in H2FY24, and has expanded into Northern India with projects in Gurugram.

    The management expects the Borivali Mall to be completed by Q4FY24, which will add a rental income of Rs 350 crore to its yearly pot. The Commerz III project, slated for completion by Q1FY25, is projected to add an annual rental income of Rs 500 crore. The company has reduced its net debt, thanks to a robust cash flow of Rs 700 crore from its core business. This has resulted in a 3.9% QoQ increase in the closing cash balance.

    Vikas Oberoi, the Chairman & MD of the company, said, “We believe that the real estate market will continue its upward trajectory, driven by strong demand for established brands, spacious apartments and a desire for home ownership. We expect good demand in retail, fueled by the festive season and increased consumer confidence”.

    ICICI Securities expects the company’s rental income to rise to Rs 1,130 crore in FY25E from Rs 290 crore in FY23, as rental operations from these new projects start from Q1FY25E. The Pokhran Road project is also expected to add value to the company’s revenues, leading the brokerage to maintain an “Add” rating on the stock post its Q2FY24 results.

    5. Godrej Consumer Products

    This FMCG firm has risen over 4.7% in the past two days, after announcing a 20.6% YoY increase in net profit to Rs 432.8 crore in Q2FY24. The jump was driven by a moderation in raw material prices. According to Sudhir Sitapati, the Managing Director and CEO, “The quicker-than-anticipated integration of Raymond Consumer Care and favourable palm oil costs led to profit growth”. 

    Meanwhile, its revenue has increased by 6.2% YoY to Rs 3,601.9 crore, marginally beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 0.6%, led by healthy growth in overall volumes. The company has risen 2.9% over the past month, outperforming the FMCG sector by 1.1%. 

    During the quarter, sales of Godrej Consumer’s homecare segment (which contributes around 36% of revenue) grew 5% YoY, led by air fresheners. However, the personal care segment, which makes up 59% of revenue, saw a 1% contraction due to muted growth in the hair colour range. 

    In international markets (which make up over 40% of total revenue), Godrej Consumer’s Indonesia business saw an 11% YoY growth in volumes, aided by its household insecticide business, as well as a favourable macro environment. The Africa, US & Middle East business recorded a 3% growth in volumes. Sudhir Sitapati said, “The company plans to reorganise the hair fashion segment in small East African countries, including Kenya, to improve profitability.” 

    Following the earnings release, Motilal Oswal reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on Godrej Consumer Products with an upgraded target price of Rs 1,150. The brokerage has a positive outlook on the company’s international business and expects it to deliver double-digit sales growth over FY23-25E. As a result, the company features in a screener of companies where brokers have upgraded their recommendations or target prices over the past three months. 

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    03 Nov 2023
    Seven stocks that beat expectations, despite global worries | Outperformers screener for Q2

    Seven stocks that beat expectations, despite global worries | Outperformers screener for Q2

    By Tejas MD

    The earnings season is crunch time for equity markets, as investors and analysts compare the promises CEOs had made to actual results. 

    But the Q2 season has been shadowed by concerns beyond balance sheets. Factors like rising oil prices due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, stubborn inflation, and the possibility of high interest rates sticking around for longer, have slowed market momentum. 

    These concerns have also spooked foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who, after six consecutive months of net buying, sold a net of Rs 18,893.8 crore in September, and Rs 19,982.6 crore in October in Indian stocks. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have been net buyers since April.

    But India still remains the most favoured FII destination among emerging markets.

    FIIs will now look at corporate earnings for signals on where markets are headed. Currently, the Nifty 500 index shows a revenue growth of 10.3% YoY in Q2FY24, with operating profits rising by 25.8%. Let’s take a look at the sectors and stocks that are driving the Nifty 500’s overall revenue growth.

    In this week’s analytics, 

    • Seven Stars: Seven high-growth stocks from three sectors are beating expectations
    • Outperformers Screener:Companies that beat revenue and net profit estimates, and posted strong Q2 results 

    Banking and finance stocks lead the charge in beating Q2 estimates

    The banking and finance sector has taken the lead in driving the Nifty 500’s performance in Q2FY24, with several companies beating Forecaster estimates for both revenue and net profit. The other out-performers are consumer durables and , surprisingly, a few companies in the software and services sector.

    Banking and finance companies lead YoY revenue and net profit growth in Q2

    Key players driving this momentum include CreditAccess Grameen, Canara Bank, Karur Vysya Bank, Cyient, Tanla Platforms, Dixon Technologies (India) and Polycab India.

    Except for Polycab India, all the highlighted companies rose in reaction to results, with CreditAccess Grameen rising 8.5%. Over the past quarter, Dixon Technologies has led the pack overall with a 32.7% increase. 

    Banking and finance stocks rise post results, and in the past quarter

    CreditAccess, Canara Bank and Karur Vysya not only jumped on the day of results but have continued to rise since the result announcements.

    Profits roll in: Banking and finance companies build momentum

    Companies from the banking and finance (including NBFCs) industries have been resilient in the past few quarters, and posted high revenue and net profit growth in Q2 as well, mirroring positive results from sector front-runners like HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. Three companies in focus posted a net interest income increase (both YoY and QoQ), helped by strong loan demand:

    Net interest income rises YoY and QoQ as loan demand stays strong in Q2

    CreditAccess Grameen saw a 53.3% YoY jump in net interest income, thanks to an expanding gross loan portfolio. Canara Bank and Karur Vysya Bank also reported net interest income growth, fuelled by a spike in loans in the retail segment. Karur Vysya’s personal loans jumped 2.2 times YoY, while Canara Bank’s retail loans grew by 10.5%. 

    During Karur Vysya Bank's Q2FY24 earnings call, MD and CEO Ramesh Babu said, “Retail growth has remained steady (+17%) compared to the last quarter, with most of the growth coming from mortgages, both residential and non-residential”. 

    Karur Vysya and Canara Bank’s deposits also grew at 12.8% and 9% YoY respectively in Q2. However, their deposits grew at a slower pace compared to loans, which can put pressure on margins going forward. 

    Falling attrition rates help software & services companies’ margins in Q2

    Software and services firms have had some tough times recently – this sector is highly dependent on global customers, and the slowdown internationally has hit both deal wins and margins. In Q2, industry leaders TCS and Infosys saw single-digit revenue growth, and TCS marginally missed revenue estimates. 

    However, mid-cap companies like Cyient and Tanla Platforms posted strong results, beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue and profit.  

    Cyient and Tanla showcase rising revenue YoY and QoQ in Q2

    Cyient’s digital engineering and technology segment, which saw a 22% YoY increase, has been key to its revenue boost. Meanwhile, Tanla’s enterprise communications segment (SMS and WhatsApp broadcasts) drove its top-line growth. 

    While talking about new growth verticals, Cyient’s management said that its automotive segment is gaining traction on autonomous and connectivity solutions, and that the demand trend for these services looks very strong. 

    Both companies have reported YoY rises in operating profit margins due to cost optimization measures and lower employee expenses on the back of falling attrition rates. 

    Operating profit margin rises sharply YoY but moderates QoQ

    Consumer durables companies see margins rise as raw material prices fall

    Consumer electronics company Dixon Technologies posted high QoQ and YoY revenue growth in Q2, on the back of a 76.8% YoY rise in its mobile manufacturing segment. Dixon, which operates under various production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes, is set to begin production of Google Pixel 8 phones, according to Bloomberg.

    Mobile manufacturing segment drives Dixon Tech’s revenue in Q2FY24

    Polycab India, a cable and wire manufacturer, is not far behind in revenue and profit growth, with increases of 26.6% and 58.9% YoY respectively in Q2FY24. In the Q2 earnings call, Chirayu Upadhyaya, Polycab’s Head of Investor Relations, said, “The cables segment grew with rising demand in the defense sector, which accounts for over 21% of revenues in the first half of the year.”

    As both companies' top and bottom lines grew, operating profit margins also rose YoY thanks to a fall in raw material prices, and a favourable product mix. 

    Operating profit margins rise YoY on better product mix


    Screener: Companies that beat revenue and net profit estimates, with strong Q2 results

    Oberoi Realty tops Forecaster estimates in revenue surprise % 

    This screener shows stocks from the Nifty 500 that have beaten Trendlyne's revenue and net profit Forecaster estimates for Q2FY24. Stocks from Banking and Finance, Software and Services, Consumer durables, Realty and Retailing feature in the screener. 

    Major stocks that appear in the screener are Oberoi Realty, ICICI Securities, Nippon Life India Asset Management, PNB Housing Finance, HDFC Asset Management, Central Depository Services (India) and PVR INOX.

    Oberoi Realty’s revenue grew by 76.8% YoY to Rs 1,217.4 crore in Q2FY24, aiding it to beat its Forecaster estimates by 28.5%. The realty company’s revenue increased on the back of gains from Oberoi Mall, Commerz and The Westin Mumbai Garden City. Its net profit also expanded by 43.3% YoY, thanks to reduced raw material and operating expenses.

    PVR INOX’s revenue grew the most by 191.2% YoY to Rs 1,999.9 crore in Q2FY24. This helped the retailing company outperform Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 7.8%. Its revenue rose on the back of a jump in the average ticket price (ATP) and spend per head (SPH). It posted a net profit of Rs 166.3 crore in Q2FY24 against a net loss of Rs 71.2 crore in Q2FY23.

    You can find some popular screenershere.

    Signing off this week,

    The Trendlyne Team

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