Gujarat Gas: Our ADD recommendation on Gujarat Gas (GGL) with a price target of INR 326 is premised on (1) volume growth of 20% CAGR over FY21-23E, (2) portfolio of mature, semi-mature and new geographical areas (GAs) and (3) compelling valuations among the city gas distribution players (RoE of 27% in FY22E versus 20% for peers - Indraprastha Gas and Mahanagar Gas). 1QFY21 EBITDA/APAT was 26/49% below estimates, primarily owing to 31% lower volumes at 4.1mmscmd, offset by 7% higher per unit EBITDA margin. Godrej Consumers: GCPLs 1QFY21 was broadly in line with revenue/EBITDA growth of -1/3% YoY. Domestic revenue/EBITDA growth was at +5/+22% YoY, while international revenue/EBITDA growth was -8/-36% YoY. Domestic revenue growth was led by HI (27% YoY), while soaps surprised with a 2% YoY decline (HSIE +7%). Hair colours remained weak and declined by 18% YoY. Within international, GUAM was heavily impacted (-23% YoY) by lockdowns while Indonesia maintained a healthy pace (+5% YoY), driven by HI. GCPL continued to drive penetration through innovative launches, and the company launched 45 new products in its hygiene portfolio. We expect HI and hygiene portfolio to sustain healthy growth while discretionary/OOH will be muted in FY21. We maintain our EPS estimates for FY21/FY22/FY23. We value GCPL at 35x P/E on Jun-22E EPS and derive a target price of Rs 628. Maintain REDUCE.

low our estimate of INR 2,149mn. The revenue growth was mainly driven by the CMS (25.4% YoY growth) segment, led by 32 molecules (Development + Commercialize) with speciality API segment, which grew by 33.2% in Q1FY21. EBITDA margin expanded by 622bps to 16.5% level, which was 219bps higher than our estimate driven by 580bps improvement in gross margin led by improved product mix. Management is confident to improve margin profile from current level on the back of strong order book in CMS business, better traction in GDS business and cost optimization measures....

We initiate Buy on State Bank of India (SBIN) with a target price of Rs 240 (SOTP basis, valuing core book at 0.6x FY22E ABV and Subsidiary value at Rs 110). SBIN with business size of ~Rs 57trn is the largest commercial bank with ~22.8/19.7% market share in deposits/ advances in India.

NBIE Values your patronage- Vote for The Team in the Asia Money poll 2020. Click Here We maintain Buy on Indian Oil Corp (IOC) based on our trimmed TP of Rs146. Our buy call is based on: (i) improved outlook for retail margins under sub US$4050/bbbl (ii) refining and petchem margins are at trough levels and could revive over the next 1-2 years based on likely closure of capacities and iii) compelling valuations post the sharp 34% fall in the stock price in the last one year that has priced in worries over policy/volatility in margins and likely risk of increasing competition from private retailers/alternative fuels. IOC's 1QFY21 adjusted PAT at...

Temporary blip in growth, 4Q margin an aberration NBIE Values your patronage- Vote for The Team in the Asia Money poll 2020. Click Here Solar Industries India (SIIL) reported consolidated revenue of Rs5.5bn in 4QFY20, down 19% YoY, as sales worth Rs1bn were deferred due to lockdown. The topline was 7% above our estimate but 15% below consensus. In the domestic market, growth was impacted by heavy monsoons extending in Jan 2020 and lockdown restrictions, affecting mining and construction activities. Thus, Housing & Infrastructure segment sales fell 30% YoY to Rs1.6bn while sales to...

Poised for a quantum leap; Valuations fully priced Dixon Technologies (Dixon) reported 1QFY21 sales of Rs5.2bn, down 55% YoY due to COVID-19 disruptions. The topline was 4%/9% below our/consensus estimates. Consolidated gross margin was up 60bps YoY at 12%. EBITDA fell 68% YoY to Rs169mn with an operating margin of 3.3%, down 130bps YoY due to lower production and under-absorption of costs. The margin was above our/consensus estimates of 1.3%/2.9%. PAT fell 93% YoY to Rs16mn (partially aided by lower tax rate at 26% versus 34% YoY). The bottom-line was above our/consensus of loss of Rs84mn/Rs34mn, respectively. Achieving scale, migration to ODM, new customer acquisition...

Background: Vinati Organics Limited (VOL) was established in 1989 to manufacture specialty organic chemicals. It has since grown to become the world's largest manufacturer of IBB & ATBS and India's largest manufacturer of IB & HP MTBE. The company's products are exported to customers in countries across Europe, America, and Asia. Competitive edge in niche specialty chemicals Cost leadership & scale economies in IBB and technological entry barrier in ATBS. The company started with a small capacity of 1,000 TPA and gradually expanded to 26,000 TPA today for its ATBS production, capturing 60% of the market share. The company also commands more than 65% market share in the world for IBB. With consistent...

We attended the annual conference call on Avenue Supermarts (D-Mart) to get an insight into the outlook and challenges lying ahead owing to the Covid-19 pandemic. Majority of the questions (as anticipated) were pertaining to future plans regarding its e-commerce play (DMart Ready') and views on intensified competition from new entrants with deep pockets. The management reiterated its stance of not aggressively foraying into ecommerce play and rather focusing on further consolidating its position to be an eminent player in the brick & mortar format. Over the years, D-Mart, through its proven business model, has been able to maintain consistent...

BSE: BSE reported lower-than-expected revenue and margin performance in the quarter due to a fall in listing income (-20% QoQ). The core revenue stream improved (transaction charges +20.7% QoQ), led by a jump in cash volume and StAR MF. EBITDA margin was in negative territory (-7.6%) due to a drop in revenue and fixed cost structure. BSE cash market share declined to 6.2% (-113bps YoY) despite a jump in volumes, which we believe can be regained through smart order routing. The StAR MF platform is witnessing strong volume growth (+52% YoY), but realisation will fall from 2Q due to lower pricing. BSE is trying to fight back and build the derivative volume again, but it's still early days. New initiatives like insurance platform, spot exchange and INX are promising, but there is no revenue visibility from them in the near term. The revival of derivatives volume on BSE, smart order routing and interoperability are key triggers to transaction revenue. The value proposed value unlocking of the StAR MF platform is positive and will be closely watched. We arrive at a SoTP-based target price of Rs 565 by assigning 10x multiple to core June-22E PAT (Rs 57/share), Rs 110/sh for the CDSL stake and adding net cash excluding SGF and clearing cash (Rs 397/sh). BSE has net cash of Rs 18bn (~78% of market cap) and a dividend yield of ~5%, which limits downside. Maintain ADD. Vinati Organics: Our SELL recommendation on Vinati Organics with a discounted cash flow based target price of INR 820 (WACC 10%,...

The upcoming RBI MPC policy has admittedly become a close call given elevated inflation prints, but we maintain our call for 25bps cut in policy rates.

Pressure on earnings from hit on soda ash volumes to persist We maintain Sell on Tata Chemicals Ltd (TTCH) based on our revised earnings and Target Price of Rs232 post the 1Q results concall. We have cut earnings 33.1%/11.6% over FY21/FY22E, but raised the TP 7.5%, based on a 10% increase in our Target EV/E (our new estimates represent trough volumes/margins for chemicals), and the increase in the value of its stake in Rallis India. Management expects volumes in the troubled soda ash business (around 75% of revenue) to recover gradually over the next 6-9 months, while adding that this hinges on a recovery in the auto/realty segments, which accounted for 32% of global soda ash demand. There are signs of...

Valuation and Risks: Since its listing in Nov 2016, VBL has historically traded consistently within its avg1 year forward PE of 47x. Given the pandemic and economic downturn, we factor in the risk regarding longevity of the economic troubles and value the stock at a discount of ~ 10% (40x) from its 1 year forward PE since listing on CY21E EPS of Rs. 20.8 and recommend BUY'.

4 August 2020 volumes increased 7% YoY to 2.57mt on improving demand from steel plants as domestic demand improves. This, coupled with higher international iron ore prices, has enabled NMDC to raise prices this month by INR200/t (~9%) to INR2,360/2,650 per ton for fines/lumps. We believe NMDCs iron ore prices should sustain in 2HFY21 due to rising steel prices (up ~INR2,000/t MoM), higher pellet prices (up 20% MoM to INR7,200/t), and reduced iron ore supply from Odisha mines. Volume growth of 7% YoY reported by NMDC (to 2.57mt) in July20 has surprised and is three months ahead of our expectation of positive volume print in 2HFY21. While iron ore production from several auctioned mines in Odisha has commenced in the current quarter, we believe production from these mines would be lower by >30% YoY in FY21, supporting NMDCs volumes in the near term.

4 August 2020 The RBI has approved the appointment of Mr Sashidhar Jagdishan as MD & CEO of the bank for a period of three years, effective from 27 Oct20. He was appointed as Business Head Finance in 1999 and later as Chief Financial Officer in 2008. He has diversified experience across various functions and is currently the Group Head of Finance, Human Resources, Legal & Secretarial, Administration, Infrastructure, Corporate Communications, Corporate Social Responsibility & the Strategic Change Agent of the Bank. Over the past 26 years, under the leadership of Mr Aditya Puri, HDFCB has grown to become the largest private bank in India, with systemic market share of ~9.8% in advances and 8.3% in deposits, and market capitalization at INR5.7t. HDFC Bank HDFCB has maintained a stable asset quality track record over the past two decades through rigorous risk management practices and following high-quality governance standards.

4 August 2020 EBITDA/scm was better than est. INR4.1) and higher QoQ as well (INR4.7 in 4QFY20). Reported EBITDA was at INR1.85b (-60% YoY; -56% QoQ), with PBT at INR0.8b. PAT came in at INR0.6b (-75% YoY and QoQ). CNG volumes stood at 0.7mmscmd (-54% YoY and QoQ). PNG I/C stood at 2.9mmscmd (-60% YoY; -63% QoQ).

4 August 2020 Godrej Consumers (GCPL) 1QFY21 earnings were in line. Household Insecticides (HI) sales were better than expectations. However, Soaps disappointed with 2% YoY sales decline, despite a favorable environment. Gross margins were below expectations due to an adverse mix. A sharp 46% YoY cut in ad-spends meant that EBITDA was slightly ahead of expectations. We do not see any visibility for the single-digit EPS trajectory of the past 5 years to change materially any time soon. RoCE at less than 20% is also much lower than peers and is unlikely to improve materially over the next few years. Thus, valuation of 40.5x FY22E seems fair. EBITDA grew 3% YoY to INR4.7b (v/s est.

Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited (Torrent) reported strong performance for Q1FY2021. Revenues at Rs. 2,056 crore increased by 1.7% y-o-y on account of 2% growth in India business, while other geographies reported a decline. The chronic heavy portfolio in the Indian markets led to revenue growth. Operating profit at Rs. 661 crore increased by 22% y-o-y and was better than estimates. Operating profit margin (OPM) at 32% expanded by 540 bps y-o-y, backed by expansion in gross margins and lower other expenses. Strong operating performance percolated to the bottom line as well. Consequently, PAT for the quarter stood at Rs. 321 crore, up impressively by 49% y-o-y and was ahead...

Disruption owing to nationwide lockdown till first week of May and significant disturbances during remaining period led to contraction of revenue and gross margins for Relaxo Footwear in Q1FY21. Revenue for the quarter de-grew by 43.9% YoY to Rs 363.6 cr

Asian markets are trading mixed tracking positive cues from Wall Street while investors await the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision in the day ahead. Nikkei is trading higher by 1.40%, Hang Seng is trading higher by 0.72% while Shanghai is trading lower by 0.26%. Indian indices ar..