JK Cement Ltd. share price target

Company reported sales volume of 6.61 mtpa, which grew by 17.8% YoY (better-than-industry), mainly led by good demand scenario and ramp-up of newly added capacities (~7 mtpa added in FY26). We believe that company's volume growth to remain better-than-industry going ahead, further ramp-up of recently commissioned plants and new capacity additions. Management has also guided for double digit growth in cement volume for FY27E. On capacity expansion front, company is in process of reaching ~40 mtpa of total grey cement capacity by FY28E (from 32.3 mtpa currently) led by expansion...

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

JK Cement’s (JKCE) 1QFY27 EBITDA was above our estimates, led by higher-than-estimated volume and white cement realization.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Cost savings initiatives to help EBITDA/ton improvement: Company's EBITDA/ton stood at 1013/ton in FY26, up ~1% YoY due to flattish realisations on blended basis. Though the company has guided cost saving of ~50/ton in FY27E from existing operations, company expects total cost inflation of ~150200/ton due to recent increase in fuel and packing costs amid West Asia crisis. However, we expect company's operational performance to improve in FY28E after seeing some cost pressure in FY27E. This will be led by improvement in realisation, focus on cost saving measures primarily led by increase in share of green power to 75% by FY28E from ~52% at present, increasing usage of...

JKCE management highlighted a healthy domestic demand trend in 4QFY26 led by broad based demand across key segments. The pricing environment remains mixed, with stronger traction in non-trade segment relative to trade.

JK Cement’s (JKCE) stock has underperformed broader indices and other top cement companies in the past few months (over Sep-Feb’26 MTD) on account of margin contraction and higher expected capacity additions in its core markets (North and Central) over the next two years.

Notwithstanding weak pricing environment and rising petcoke prices, strong volume growth and cost optimisation measures aided the company’s quarterly performance.

EBITDA/ton to improve led by cost savings initiatives over the next 2-3 years: Company's EBITDA/ton stood at 1017/ton in 9MFY26, up ~14% YoY due to improvement in overall cost structure and positive operating leverage. Going ahead, we expect company's operational performance to improve, led by improvement in realisation, focus on cost saving measures primarily led by increase in share of green power to 75% by FY28E from 52% at present, increasing usage of captive coal, optimising logistics cost and positive operating leverage. The company has also guided for 150-200/ton of cost...

We revise our rating from HOLD to BUY and roll over our estimates to FY28.

JK Cement’s (JKCE) 3QFY26 EBITDA was up 13% YoY to INR5.6b (in line). OPM contracted 70bp YoY to ~16% (-90bp vs. estimate). EBITDA/t declined 7% YoY to INR935 (-6% vs. estimate).

JK Cement (JKCE) remains a premium imperative story - being among the few companies with clear visibility to double capacity in next five years.

Q2FY26 performance: Consolidated revenue increased by 17.9% YoY (-9.9% QoQ) to Rs 3019.2 crores, mainly led by 14.6% YoY growth in blended cement sales volume (to 5 mtpa, -10.7% QoQ) and improvement in blended realization by 2.9% YoY (+0.8% QoQ). EBITDA/ton improved by 37.2% YoY (-27.3% QoQ) to Rs 891/ton. Subsequently, absolute EBITDA is up 57.3% YoY (-35.1% QoQ) to Rs 446.6 crore....

JK Cement’s (JKCE) 2QFY26 earnings were in line with our estimates, with EBITDA growing ~57% YoY to INR4.5b. EBITDA/t surged ~37% YoY to INR894 (vs. est. INR934).

JK Cement (JKCE) has embarked on an express growth track, offering strong visibility of 16% CAGR capacity creation over FY25-30 (vs. FY15–25’s 9%).

We change our rating from BUY to HOLD on the stock.