We broadly maintain our estimates for FY21E/ FY22E despite muted H1FY21 as we expect execution to pick up significantly from Q3FY21E in projects worth Rs33.4 bn on receiving the appointed date coupled with stabilization of labour and supply chain issues. We introduce FY23E and expect 4.2%/ 23.6%/ 23.3% revenue growth for FY21E/...

During FY20, tendering and awarding of projects of NHAI has been subdued, due to lower government spending, delays in land acquisition and delays in granting of appointment dates. Furthermore, the ordering activity during the end of FY20 had come to a halt on account of the nationwide lockdown due to the outbreak of COVID-19. The Central Government has implemented several measures to provide relief in view of the prevailing situation, such as enabling 3-6 months' extension of the project period in existing contracts, releasing due payments within the...

At the end of Jun'20, HG Infra's order book stood healthy at ~Rs.68bn(3.5xTTMrevenues).Thecompanyhasnotwonanymajor projects during YTD FY21. However, the management seems...

We expect, labour shortage to impact execution during H1 FY21. However, the timely receipt of appointed date in Rewari project would support execution in H2 FY21. On overall basis, we expect...

We maintain BUY on HG with SOTP based TP of Rs 337/Sh, valuing the EPC business at 10x FY22E EPS. Key risks (1) Slowdown in NHAI ordering; (2) Delays in receipt of pending dues from Rajasthan Project (3) Elongated monsoon (4) Extension of lockdown. HG Infra reported Rev/EBIDTA/APAT miss of 9/4/4% vs our estimates due to Rs 1bn revenue hit on account of COVID-19. HG won Rs 36bn of new orders during FY20 including 2 Delhi Vadodara Expressway EPC packages totaling Rs 21.4bn. Order backlog is robust at Rs 71bn (3.2x FY20 Rev). Lending institutions continue to draw comfort from the companys execution track record and financial position as it has achieved timely Financial Closure for its 3 HAM projects (1 HAM FC pending).

Overall fund allocation for key infrastructure sectors has declined 4% YoY in Union Budget FY21 to Rs 5.5tn, with gross budgetary support at Rs 2.7tn (+10% YoY) the latter includes Rs 1.6tn (+7% YoY) towards roads and railways.

HG's NWC is ~58days, standalone debt reduction to Rs 2.7bn by FY20E is on track and HAM equity infusion of Rs 2.6bn will be met from internal accruals. HG targeted bid pipeline is robust at ~Rs 150bn (envisages securing HAM orders of ~Rs10bn and EPC orders of ~Rs10-15bn during 4QFY20). Lending institutions continue to draw comfort from the company's execution track record and financial position as it has achieved timely Financial Closure for its 3 HAM projects. Thus, HG is well placed to achieve FC for its incremental HAM projects. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Further delay in NHAI ordering activity; (2) Delays in receipt of pending dues from Rajasthan Project. HG Infra reported Rev/EBIDTA/APAT beat of 2.3/0.9/(3.8)% vs our estimates. The company continues to maintain EBITDA margin around the 15% mark. We maintain BUY on HG with SOTP based TP of Rs 441/Sh, valuing the EPC business at 12x FY21E EPS.

Gurgaon-Sohna site visit indicates steady execution progress

We visited HG Infra's (HGIEL) Gurgaon-Sohna NHAI HAM project site and also met CMD Harendra Singh.

HG delivered an inline performance during 2QFY20. About Rs 32bn of orders are expected to move into execution during 3QFY20, leading to a strong pickup in revenue from 4QFY20. The EPC bid pipeline is robust (HG hopes to secure EPC orders of ~Rs20bn and HAM orders of ~Rs10bn during 2HFY20). HG has received FC for its 2 HAM projects from 2 leading banks, highlighting the company's ability to secure funding in a market which values Infra companies with strong execution capabilities as well as strong financial health. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Further delay in NHAI ordering activity; (2) Delay in appointed dates for the company's HAM and EPC projects. HG Infra reported Rev/EBIDTA/APAT beat of 1/3/8.5% vs our estimates. Higher EBIDTA margins (+35bps vs estimate), stable interest cost/depreciation resulted in APAT beat. We maintain BUY on HG with SOTP of Rs 441/Sh, valuing the EPC business at 12x FY21E EPS.

The corporate tax reduction announced last week will bump up standalone EPS by 2-13% for our infrastructure universe over FY20-FY22, with HGIEL benefiting the most.

Robust Order Book Aiding Consistent Growth: HG Infra has reported its Q1FY20 results broadly in line with our estimates. EBITDA margin has expanded by a marginal 21 bps to reach 15.1% for Q1FY20 on account ofhigher turnover (16.9% YoY growth) and lower material expenses (43.2% vs 50.1% as a % of sales).

HG delivered an inline performance during 1QFY20. The NWC days remained stable at 100 as Rajasthan State project contributed 38%/33days to debtor days. HG expects to realize it soon and revert to 60-65days of NWC. About Rs 23bn of orders will move into execution from 3QFY20-end, leading to a strong pickup in revenue from 2HFY20. The EPC bid pipeline is robust (HG plans to bid for ~Rs 500bn in EPC and selectively in HAM, post FC of 2 HAM). HG has received term sheet for 2 HAM projects and FC will get announced in Sep-19. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Slowdown in NHAI ordering; (2) High interest rates; and (3) Delay in appointed dates for HAM. HG Infra reported Rev/EBIDTA/APAT beat of (8)/(6.1)/0.1% vs our estimates. Higher EBIDTA margins (+30bps vs estimate), stable interest cost/depreciation resulted in inline profits. We maintain BUY on HG with SOTP of Rs 462/Sh, valuing the EPC business at 15x FY21E EPS.

HG Infra Engineering (HGINFRA) has reported a better-than-expected performance in 1QFY20 despite a marginal misses on revenue front, which grew by 17% YoY to Rs5.26mn (vs. our estimate of Rs5.35bn). While EBITDA grew by ~19% YoY to Rs795mn, EBITDA margin stood at 15.1% (+21bps YoY and -96bps QoQ) vs. our assumption of 15%. Higher-than-estimated margin and lower finance cost led to better-than-estimated 27% YoY growth in PAT to Rs344mn (vs. our estimate of Rs312mn). Having secured orders worth Rs36.5bn in FY19 (EPC components), HGINFRA did not bag any order in 1QFY20 due to slowdown in ordering activities. Order backlog stands at Rs57.1bn (2.7x of TTM revenue) as of 1QFY20-end vs. Rs62.2bn in FY19. Further, gross borrowings...

HG Infra's (HGIEL) Q1FY20 revenue grew 17% YoY to Rs 5.3bn but was below estimates due to delayed AD award for the Hapur-Moradabad project.

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM) clocked a 6% YoY rise in Q4FY19 standalone revenue to Rs 140bn, with realisations up 6% despite stagnant volume growth. EBITDA declined 6% YoY to Rs 16.5bn but came in above our estimate, as did margins at 11.7%. Adj. PAT was broadly in line, dipping 9% YoY to Rs 9.3bn. We trim FY20/FY21 earnings estimates by ~2% each to build in softer volumes and also pare our target core P/E multiple from 14x to 12x. Upon rollover to Mar'20, our TP remains at Rs 760....

HG delivered a strong performance during FY19. The focus should now be on debt reduction. There has been a marginal deterioration in NWC days owing to increase in FY19 debtors even as HG expects to realize it soon and revert to 65days of NWC. ~Rs 12/27bn of orders will move into execution from 1QFY20-end/3QFY20 leading to a strong pickup in revenue from 2HFY20. Hapur project's AD is expected to come in the next 15days. The EPC bid pipeline is strong (HG plans to bid for ~Rs 250bn in EPC and selectively in HAM) and it stands to benefit from the upcoming ordering in the roads segment (incl. State projects). We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Slowdown in NHAI ordering; (2) High interest rates; and (3) Delay in appointed dates for HAM. We maintain BUY on HG with SOTP of Rs 462/Sh, valuing the EPC business at 15x FY21E EPS. We have marginally cut our FY20/21E EPS by 0.7/0.3% to factor in higher interest costs as share of interest bearing mobilization advances increase in the mix.

View: Growth momentum to continue; maintain Buy HGINFRA posted a 15.1% YoY growth in revenue in Q4FY19 (highest quarterly revenue in its history) to `5.8 bn (11.6% below our estimate), due to muted execution. The EBITDA margin was up 46 bps YoY to 16.1% (116 bps above our estimate), primarily due to a lower construction cost at 76.6% of revenue, which was partially offset by higher employee and other expenses. The PAT was up 2.1% YoY to `367 mn (19.5% below our...

Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report An emerging pure-play EPC player; Disciplined execution, healthy order book, and strong client reputation the hallmarks of a strong franchise This report is solely produced by Emkay Global. The following person(s)...

Maintain BUY with Rs 408/sh TP. HG Infra Engineering Ltd. (HG) posted strong revenue/EBITDA/PAT at Rs 5.5/0.8/0.4bn respectively (~7/6/7% estimate beat). Stable EBITDA margins at 14.6% are comforting while management believes there is scope for a further 100bps uptick from here as share of own orders increase in mix.