The 15 reports from 6 analysts offering long term price targets
for Ashoka Buildcon Ltd. have an average target of 117.17. The consensus estimate
represents an upside of 87.02%
from the last price of 62.65.
Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) has reported good set of numbers for 1QFY21 compared to our as well as consensus estimates. Given the COVID related lockdown and labour migration, we were expecting a weak quarter for the company but we believe that the recovery in execution has been much swifter. As a result of better than expected execution, revenue and EBITDA were 51.8% and 155.4% ahead of our estimates, respectively. Net revenue at Rs5.72bn declined by 34.7% YoY due to COVID induced lockdown, lower availability of labour etc. EBITDA declined by 25.2% YoY to Rs819mn and EBITDA margin was higher than expected at 14.3% (+182bps YoY). Adj. PAT increased by 6.8% YoY to Rs691mn primarily due to higher other income and lower finance costs,...
Ashoka Buildcon's (ABL) performance was a mixed bag in Q1FY21. Revenues de-grew ~35% YoY to | 572.4 crore on account of weaker-thanexpected execution during the quarter owing to Covid-19 led challenges such amid lockdown and labour shortage. Reported EBITDA margin was up 180 bps YoY to 14.3%, mainly on account of release of contingencies on account of project completion. RPAT grew 11.9% YoY to | 68.1 crore on account of higher other income (driven by insurance claim and restructuring of equipment loans) and higher reported EBITDA. Order book at | 8,617 crore as of Q1FY21...
12 August 2020 Ashoka Buildcons (ASBL) 1QFY21 results were robust. Top line decline was limited to INR5.7b (18% above est.). On account of one-off items as well as release of contingencies, EBITDA and PAT came in well above expectations. A key surprise was the reduction in gross debt to INR2.4b (v/s INR4b at end- FY20), indicating strong focus on cash flow management. Strong execution over the past two years is commendable. However, the pending PE exit in the asset portfolio is an overhang on the stock. We have increased our FY21E EPS by 16%, but FY22E EPS remains broadly unchanged. Strong order book and continuous improvement in the balance sheet augurs well for ASBL. Maintain with revised TP of INR88. Revenue declined 35% to INR5.7b and was 18% above our expectations. EBITDA was down 25% YoY to INR819m (ahead of est.
SBI Macquarie stake sale deal continues to be an overhang on the stock, negotiations to likely restart with prospective buyers. ASBL reported resilient operational performance in a tough scenario with revenues falling 34% YoY due to Covid-19 pandemic, impacting construction...
We revise our FY21E/FY22 EPS by 6/34% and increase our TP to Rs 141/sh (vs Rs 134/sh earlier). We maintain BUY on Ashoka Buildcon with revised TP of Rs 141/sh. Adjusting for ~Rs 1bn release of contingencies in revenue from some of the projects, ABL missed our earnings estimate by 18% on account of weak execution and lower than expected EBITDA margin. Labour availability is 50-65% as of now and sites are working at 50-65% efficiency. Tolling has reached 85% of pre-Covid-19 level within three week of resumption. NWC days improvement, low net D/E of 0.04x and comfortable liquidity insulates ABL from COVID-19 headwinds.
SBI-Macquarie stake exit remains the key overhang on the company. The monetisation could hit a roadblock in the near term given the overall economic challenges. Moreover, we expect ABL's execution to be impacted by Covid-19 impact. We conservatively build in construction revenue growth at 4% CAGR to | 4,248 crore in FY20-22E. We reinstate our ratings (earlier...
Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) has reported good set of numbers for 4QFY20 compared to estimates. Click Here EPC business continues to do well Net revenue at Rs12.5bn declined by 4% YoY and was marginally ahead of consensus estimate. However, EBITDA increased by 26.2% YoY to Rs2.3bn as EBITDA margin was higher than expected at 18.2% (+437bps YoY). Adj. PAT increased by 67.6% YoY to Rs1.6bn primarily due to lower finance expenses. Revenue, EBITDA and PAT were 8%, 68.7% and 94.1% ahead of consensus estimates, respectively. For FY20, ASBL has reported standalone revenue of Rs39.4bn, up 3.1% and EBITDA of Rs5.9bn, up 13.7%. EBITDA margin at 14.9% was up by 139bps. Adj. PAT at Rs3.9bn...
Post relaxations in lockdown almost all projects have commenced operations and are operating at ~60% efficiency with 50-65% labour availability. ASBL reported strong performance in 4Q with healthy execution in its key projects leading to meagre ~4% YoY (PLe: -35% YoY) fall in revenues, despite...
were moving at a steady pace until 15th Mar'20 with timely collection of come to halt due to a) directive and strict implementation of nationwide lockdown, b) stoppage of work requested by clients, c) labour related issues who were unable to return post Holi holidays and d) concerns towards health...
ABL's orderbook (OB) was at | 8,092.4 crore, implying OB-to-bill ratio of 2.0x TTM revenues, giving us comfort on execution ahead. Of this, road projects comprise | 5,981 crore, (HAM projects: | 3,411 crore, EPC projects: | 2,570 crore), power T&D; ~| 1,046 crore, Railways | 993 crore, and CGD | 73 crore. This OB does not include Tumkur-Shivamogga P-IV (TSP-IV) HAM project worth | 869.6 crore and recently won Kandi Ramsanpalle HAM project worth | 586.0 crore. The company has identified projects worth | 30,000 crore for bidding in the next two months and expects | 3,000-4,000 crore order inflow...
3QFY20). Equity requirement in HAM Projects would be ~Rs4.5bn over next two-three years which the management believes would be funded through internal accruals. ASBL is one of the few companies in infra space successfully diversifying into new verticals such as Railways (13% of order book) and smart cities (maiden order Rs3.2bn) over a period of time. In our view, ACL's asset monetisation would a key monitorable and if concluded within a year would remove the overhang on the stock. At CMP, the stock trades at an EV of 5.8x/5.7x FY20E/FY21E EBITDA. We maintain BUY rating...
ABL has delivered strong 2QFY20 performance still the stock is languishing at lows. Concerns on ABL going for cash settlement in an event of SBIM stake in ACL getting distressed valuation, is key overhang. Though there is no mandatory cash settlement, at best asset swap, which may be stake dilutive and incur non-cash diminution of investment value for ABL in ACL. Standalone debt has reduced by Rs 1.2bn QoQ to Rs 4.6bn. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Delay in SBI Macquarie deal closure; (2) Dip in traffic revenue from BOT projects; (3) Delay in ADs. ABL delivered 2QFY20 Rev/EBIDTA/APAT beat of 1/20/39% respectively. We maintain BUY on ABL with a reduced SOTP of Rs 206/sh (vs. Rs 220/sh earlier). TP cut is driven by our re-classification of interest income on ABL funding support to ACL as non-recurring over long term. We value the EPC business at 12x FY21E EPS.
ABL's orderbook (OB) was at | 7,485.5 crore in Q2FY20, implying OB-to-bill ratio of 1.8x TTM revenues, giving comfort on execution ahead. Of this, | 3,814.5 crore BOT, | 1,809.3 crore EPC, | 716.2 crore power T&D;, | 1,067.7 crore railway & | 77.8 crore CGD projects. This OB does not include TumkurShivamoga P-IV HAM project worth | 869.6 crore, recently won | 1,079.5 crore Bundelkhand Expressway and | 313.7 crore SRIT India (Smart City) project. Expecting ordering activity to pick up from December, 2019, the company is targeting order inflow (OI) of | 4,000-6,000 crore in FY20E. On the execution front, it has received appointed date (AD) for seven HAM...
Over last 3M, ABL has underperformed CNXINFRA by 18%. The concerns surrounding SBIM stake sale and likely event of ABL giving cash exit (in case of distress valuation) may have led to this underperformance. ABL as per exit term has no mandatory cash settlement clause. At best there could be asset transfer which may be stake dilutive for ABL and result in investment write down. Going by consensus ACL valuation impact could be Rs 7.3bn (Rs 26/sh). We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Delay in SBI Macquarie deal closure; (2) Dip in traffic revenue from BOT projects; (3) Delay in ADs. We maintain BUY on ABL with reduced SOTP of Rs 220/sh. We have cut our standalone EPC multiple from 15x to 12x to factor in concerns surrounding ACL monetization and likely impact on ABL stake dilution in ACL below 61%, in case of suboptimal valuation bids.
Currently looking to bid for | 50,000 crore road projects ABL's orderbook (OB) stood at | 8,168.3 crore in Q1FY20, implying OB-tobill ratio of 2.0x TTM revenues, giving comfort on execution ahead. This OB consists of | 4,169.6 crore BOT, | 2,066.1 crore EPC, | 828 crore power T&D;, | 1,095.0 crore railway & | 9.6 crore CGD projects. The company is currently intending to bid for road projects worth ~| 50,000 crore and targets Order Inflow (OI) to the tune of | 4,000-6,000 crore in FY20E. On the execution front, with appointed date (AD) for Belgaum-Khanapur HAM project received on March 7, 2019, execution on the project has started. With this, three of...
Ashoka Buildcon's (ASBL) Q1FY20 revenue grew 28% YoY to Rs 8.8bn, below our estimate of Rs 11.8bn due to delayed execution of power T&D;/ railways projects.
Strong performance in a challenging environment: Revenue grew 30% YoY in 1QFY20, which is commendable in a challenging operating environment (liquidity crunch and slowdown amid the election period of around two months). We note that ASBL's revenue growth was strongest among our coverage universe companies. The key positive surprise was the sequential decline in interest expense to INR214m, attributable to a fall in gross debt by INR1.4b. Overall, net profit grew 23% YoY to INR647m (in-line). Dependency on new ordering might increase at such high execution rate:...
Ashoka Buildcon Ltd (ASBL) has reported extremely good set of result for 4QFY19 with revenue of Rs13bn, +86% YoY, vs. our expectations of Rs9.1bn. The beat was driven by better execution among most under construction HAM projects, TOT EPC project (along with another EPC project in Maharashtra) and power projects in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The management has guided for 25-30% growth in FY20 which has upside potential depending on the order inflow in this year. We are building in 21% revenue and 14% EBITDA CAGR over FY19-21 in our estimates. Given the clarification by the management that there is a two year extension in closing the deal with PE investor, we believe that near term stock...
