View 11 reports from 6 analysts offering long term price targets
for Ashoka Buildcon Ltd..
Ashoka Buildcon Ltd. has an average target of 126.17. The consensus estimate
represents an upside of 73.31%
from the last price of 72.80.
- This broker has downgraded this stock from it's previous report. (eg. - Buy->Hold)
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- Broker has maintained previous recommendation but increased share price target.
Kolte Patil Developers: KPDL reported its Q4FY22 presales of 0.8msf (-8.2%/-9.3% YoY/QoQ), valued at INR 5bn (-2%/-10.7% YoY/QoQ), with average realisation of INR 6,418 per sq. ft. (+7.2%/-1.1% YoY/QoQ). With this, its FY22 presales volume came in at 2.7msf (+30.3% YoY; exceeding its FY22 guidance of 2.5msf), valued at INR 17.4bn (+44.8% YoY), with average realisation of INR 6,407 per sq. ft. (+10.8% YoY). In value terms, the contribution of non-Pune sales was ~31%, similar to previous quarter. Over the next few quarters, KPDL has a robust launch pipeline of ~5.4msf, with a top line potential of INR 46bn. KPDL is evaluating business development (BD) pipeline with INR 70bn GDV in Pune (65%), Mumbai and Bengaluru (35%). Net D/E reduced further to 0.14x (0.19x as on Dec-21). Given the comfortable liquidity position, KPDL can further acquire land bank, paving the way for accelerated BD activities. We maintain BUY, with a reduced TP of INR 350 (Mar-24E) to factor in higher cost of capital and WACC. Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our BUY rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 375, is premised on (1) recovery in domestic demand for petroleum products, (2) improvement in refining margins over the coming 18 months, and (3) gradual improvement in marketing margins for FY23-24 vis--vis FY22 levels. Q4FY22 EBITDA/APAT, at INR 42.5/21.3bn, were 46/59% below estimates, owing to higher-than-expected operating expenses on account of write-off taken for the Polyol project, higher depreciation and higher tax rates. Reported GRM stood at USD 15.3/bbl (HSIE: USD 12.7/bbl). NHPC: NHPC's revenue...
Diversified order book, decent execution capabilities, expected pick-up in execution and focus on debt reduction and working capital are expected to outline ABL's performance over the next few years...
Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) Q2FY22 (standalone) revenue and EBITDA came lower than our and consensus estimate. This is led by delay in execution due to heavy monsoon. At EBITDA level, result is lower than our and consensus estimate by 15%. ASBL has revenue guidance at 20% YoY increase for FY22E and margins at ~12-12.5%. H1FY22 Order book at Rs120bn (equals 3x TTM Revenue) with Roads & Railway at 68%. YTDFY22 total order inflow was strong at Rs33.5bn. We have introduced FY24E and roll forward TP at Rs135 (exhibit 8). Maintain BUY. ASBL has renegotiated the terms of shareholders agreement regarding the Investors exit options from the proceeds of the...
of roads and bridges having an integrated portfolio of EPC, BOT and HAM projects. Besides roads construction, ABL also has an established presence across varied infra verticals such as power transmission, railways, city gas distribution. Diversified order book, decent execution capabilities, expected pick-up in execution, and focus on debt reduction and working capital are expected to outline ABL's performance over the next few years...
The current order book stands at ~INR119b. Roads HAM/EPC projects contributed INR28b/INR45b to the order book, while Buildings EPC and Power T&D contributed INR19b each. Railways contributed INR8b. The total order book inflow stands at INR3.4b for YTD....
PNC Infratech: PNC Infratech (PNC) reported a subdued quarter with revenue/EBITDA/APAT of INR 12.5/1.7/0.9bn missing our estimates by 14/11/17%. The order inflow was also tepid as the company did not win any awards in the quarter. However, management is confident of recovery and has maintained its guidance of 20% topline growth, ~14% EBITDA margin, and INR 80bn order inflow for FY22. Given the potential strong ordering by the NHAI, PNC will focus on the road sector. We maintain BUY, given a strong order book (OB) and comfortable balance sheet. A slowdown in NHAI ordering and delay in the monetisation of HAM projects are key risks to our numbers. We have maintained our FY22/23 estimates as we believe commencement of execution in the UP water project and two road EPC projects will lead execution recovery in H2FY22. We roll forward the target price to INR 356/sh (INR 342/sh earlier). Diversification, away from the roads sector, could lead to further rerating. Ashoka Buildcon: Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) reported Q1FY22 standalone revenue/EBITDA/PAT at INR 10/1.2/1bn, 4/(7)/3% beat/(miss) on the estimates. Execution and toll collections have improved gradually since June-21. ASBL has received an order inflow of INR 30bn in FY22 until now and is further targeting orders worth INR 40bn in FY22. Including the recently won orders, the order book (OB) stands at INR 105bn. The company has maintained its guidance of 25% topline growth and 12-12.5% EBITDA margin for FY22. We maintain BUY, given low leverage (net D/E of ~0.15x) and comfortable liquidity position. Potential monetisation of HAM/BOT assets...
Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) Q1FY22 standalone PAT came 19%/ 25% higher than our / consensus estimate. This is led by better execution as work efficiency improved and currently operating at 100% efficiency level. On execution front, company has guided for revenue increase of 25% with EBITDA margin of 12-12.5% for FY22E. Post the result we have increased revenue to 20% YoY pa for FY22E/23E. This has resulted in increase in the EPS by 4% and 6% for FY22E and FY23E respectively. And SOTP base TP is revised to Rs135 (earlier Rs128), TP implied valuation is at 7x FY23E EPS (last 5 years avg at 12x). Catalyst for stock performance is conclusion of ACL asset sale, execution...
Diversified order book, decent execution capabilities, expected pick-up in execution and focus on debt reduction, working capital are expected to outline ABL's performance over the next few years...
We remain positive on the company given a) its excellent blend of diversified EPC orders and Asset ownership (in 23 Road assets and 3 City Gas Distribution assets), b) stable EPC margins and c) healthy order book (Rs94.7bn as at 1QFY22) and foray into new verticals i.e. Railways (8% of order book) and EPC buildings (13%). We expect revenue/PAT CAGR of 9.2%/1.4% for FY22/23E respectively. At the CMP, the stock trades at an EV of...
Ashoka Buildcon: Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) reported 4QFY21 revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 14/2/1.5bn, beating our estimates by 14/32/43% on execution and margin outperformance. Labour efficiency has recovered to 90-95% after hitting a trough at 70% in April-21. The company expects commodity price impact to be minimal, given the escalation clauses in much of the order book. The company has guided for 20-25% topline growth, 12-12.5% margin and INR 60-70bn order inflow for FY22. We maintain BUY on the stock, given low leverage (net D/E of ~0.1x) and comfortable liquidity position. Potential monetisation of HAM/BOT assets and diversification of the order book could be positive triggers for the stock. We tweak our FY22/FY23 estimate to account for impact from higher commodity prices and recovery in toll collections. We roll forward our SOTP-based target price to FY23 and increase it to INR 175/sh (vs INR 168/sh earlier). Oil India: Our BUY recommendation on Oil India with a revised price target of INR 183 is premised on (1) increase in crude price realisation (currently at ~USD 75/bbl) and (2) improvement in domestic gas price realisation (at USD 2.5/mmbtu). We expect oil prices to increase to ~USD 59/61 per barrel in FY22/23E vs. USD 44/bbl in FY21, given global economic rebound post COVID. 4QFY21 revenue was in line with our estimates while EBITDA was 53% below our estimate, owing to high support services of INR 5.1bn (on account of survey expenses). RPAT was above our estimate, owing to higher-than-anticipated other income.
Due diligence for monetization (SBI Macquarie stake sale) is in advanced stage by potential investors; expect SPA to be signed by Q2/Q3 FY22E. ASBL's 4Q performance was healthy with revenues and margins coming above our estimates. Amidst the second wave of Covid, execution was...
TOP PICKS: LT, KNR, PNC Infra, Ashoka, NCC, Capacite Infra, ITD and KPTL. HDFC Securities Institutional Equities (HSIE) hosted the 4th Annual Infrastructure Investors Forum on 18/19th Feb 2021, though virtual this time. We had attendees from 12 large listed Industrials/Infrastructure companies represented by Promoters, CEO/CFO/IR teams. After almost a decade, there is strong/consensus optimism building up for the Indian Infrastructure story. Ordering has moved beyond roads with focus now on health, education, portable water, renewable energy, manufacturing expansion, uptick in real estate cycle and all this is coinciding with relatively lower crude prices, lowest interest rate and improving GDP/Tax collection. Companies remain bullish whilst valuation is still at 40-50% discount to cross cycle mean. We maintain constructive as envisaged in our thematic On Road to Rerating and Triggering a New Cycle.
Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) Q3FY21 (standalone) PAT is lower than our estimate. This is led by lower execution and margin. But management guides to make for revenue shortfall in Q4FY21. This will be driven by 3 projects i.e. Kandi and 2 projects in Bihar. ASBL expects revenue of Rs39-40bn in FY21, YTDFY21 revenue is at -9% YoY and which implies Q4FY21 revenue to increase by 20%. Order book as of 9MFY21 at Rs92bn equals to 4x TTM revenue. We have increased the execution run rate and lowered margin expectations. This has resulted in marginally increase in EPS by 1-4% for FY21E to FY23E. On expectation of pick in capex cycle, driven by allocation to road sector in the...
ABL's order book (OB) at the end of Q3FY21 was at | 9,152 crore (OB-to-bill ratio of 2.5x TTM revenues) spread across roads - HAM (| 3,923 crore), roads - EPC (| 2,988 crore), power T&D; and others (| 1,466 crore), railways (| 692 crore), and CGD (| 83 crore) segments. During Q3FY21, the company has secured projects from a) NTPC Renewable Energy worth | 503 crore for EPC package of 150 MW solar PV project in Rajasthan and b) smaller contracts in power segment worth ~| 300 crore in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Going forward, the management has guided for order inflow of | 2,000-2,500 crore...
ASBL's 3QFY21 revenue came in flat YoY, in line with our estimate. Revenue would have been higher as execution of three projects was delayed and shifted to 4QFY21. EBITDA stood 15% below our estimate as an adverse revenue mix led to 180bp YoY decline in EBITDA margin (120bp below our expectation). As a result of lower depreciation and interest cost, coupled...
With major due diligence done and binding offers received, negotiations & documentation of SBI Macquarie stake sale expected to conclude by Mar'21. ASBL's 3Q performance was muted with revenues and margins coming below our and street estimates, mainly due to delayed commencement of 3 major projects. ASBL now received long-awaited AD in Kandi Ramsanpalle HAM...
Negotiations restarted for SBI Macquarie stake sale with prospective buyers and deal progressing in right direction as per management. ASBL reported decent quarterly performance with execution ramping up (6% YoY growth) across its project sites led by rise in labour availability. Margins...
Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) Q2FY21 (standalone) PAT is higher than our estimate by 25%. Beat is led by better execution (revenue) and EBITDA margin. Revenue is up 7% YoY and business has achieved normalcy. ASBL has guided for FY21E execution (revenue) in-line with FY20. Order inflow in the H1FY21 is Rs24bn (orders received in road EPC) and company expects incremental orders of Rs30-40bn in H2FY21. Order book as of H1FY21 at Rs93bn equals to 2.4x TTM revenue. We have factored improved execution in our FY21E/22E numbers and revised EPS up by 18%/12% (exhibit 8). In the note, we introduced FY23 financials and roll forward TP to FY23E. Our revised TP is Rs111 where...
We are impressed by ABL's continued improvement in leverage at standalone levels and execution recovery. However, the SBI-Macquarie stake exit stays the key overhang on the company. We believe asset monetisation will be key for rerating of EPC business multiples. We conservatively build in construction revenue growth at 4.7% CAGR to | 4,316 crore in FY20-22E. We maintain HOLD rating on the stock with an...
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