1090.80 -19.70 (-1.77%)
NSEJan 15, 2021 03:31 PM
The 33 reports from 12 analysts offering long term price targets for Mahanagar Gas Ltd. have an average target of 1125.73. The consensus estimate represents an upside of 3.20% from the last price of 1090.80.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2020-11-24||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||Geojit BNP Paribas||1063.90||1147.00||1063.90 (2.53%)||Target met||Buy|
Geojit BNP Paribas
Revenue for Q2FY21 dropped 36.3% YoY to Rs. 549cr primarily as volumes shrank 30.9% YoY to 190.7 Standard Cubic Meter (SCMmn). CNG and PNG Industry/ Commercial volumes declined by 42.0%/19.9% YoY, respectively, as lockdown and transport restrictions extended whereas Domestic PNG increased 21.6% YoY. Despite the impact of COVID-19 during the quarter, MGL achieved a growth in volumes QoQ. Blended volume stood at 2.07SCMmn, led by a strong demand recovery in CNG segment post lockdown (1.28SCMmn - 62% of total volume). Witnessed recovery at 90-95% of pre-COVID levels in Nov'20 as commercial activities gradually kicked off. PNG...
|2020-11-18||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||Nirmal Bang Institutional||869.90||1072.00||869.90 (25.39%)||Target met||Buy|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
We maintain BUY rating on Mahanagar Gas (MGL) with our blended DCF-based target price (TP) of Rs1072 as the stock is attractive at current valuation post the recent fall in the stock. We have raised our earnings estimate for FY21E by 80.5% based on the 1HFY21 beat. MGL reported 2QFY21 PAT at Rs1.44bn, down 46.7% YoY, but was 51.8%/21.91% beat vs NBIE/street estimate. Revenue was 19.62% higher than expected at Rs5.07bn due to 15.9%/17.4% beat on CNG/PNG volume. Gross margin and EBITDA margin came in 512bps and 836bps above our estimates, respectively. The YoY fall in PAT was due to: (i) 35.3%/19.1% YoY fall in revenue/EBITDA despite improved margins and (ii) 30.9% YoY fall in gas volume - CNG/PNG volume declined by 42%/0.1% YoY. In...
|2020-09-02||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||Dolat Capital||926.25||1007.00||926.25 (17.77%)||Target met||Hold|
MGL reiterates its position as a trusted natural gas supplier, it remains steadfast to further expand and extend green footprints far and wide, taking strides to responsibly fuel India. During the Pandemic MGL strived to ensure that all customers who need natural gas have an uninterrupted access to the same and they have proactively geared itself to sustain its business in this situation and is firmly on the way to recovery towards PreCovid levels. While there is ample scope for growing the business of MGL organically in its currently authorized GA's, they are continuously looking out for inorganic growth opportunities. Favourable regulatory...
|2020-08-13||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||Geojit BNP Paribas||971.85||1180.00||971.85 (12.24%)||8.18||Buy|
|2020-08-11||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||Nirmal Bang Institutional||981.65||1039.00||981.65 (11.12%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Pressure on volume hurts margins and earnings We maintain Accumulate rating on Mahanagar Gas (MGL) based on our revised DCF-based blended target price (TP) of Rs1039 vs. old TP of Rs1059. We have cut our earnings for FY21E by 38.6% and left FY22E unchanged after the concall. MGL reported 1QFY21 PAT at Rs453mn, down 73.42% YoY and 50.34% miss vs NBIE estimate. Revenue was 32.56% lower than expected at Rs2.62bn - 27.2%/5.36% miss on volume/pricing. Gross margin and EBITDA margin came in 533bps and 808bps below our estimates, respectively. The YoY plunge in earnings was due to: (i) 599bps fall in EBITDA margin and (ii) 62.5% fall in gas volume CNG/PNG volume down 77.8%/21.2%. Our Accumulate call is based on balanced risk reward...
|2020-08-10||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||Dolat Capital||981.65||1070.00||981.65 (11.12%)||Target met||Buy|
The CNG segment (down 77.8% YoY and 75.7% QoQ) due no movement of people and vehicles during the lockdown The domestic PNG segment reported flattish growth sequentially and up 7.1% YoY which was offset by a de-growth of 47% QoQ and 49.3% YoY in Industrial/commercial PNG segment. Overall PNG segment degrew 21.2% YoY and 21.3% QoQdomestic PNG segment increased which was offset by decline in industrial and commercial volumes. Gross margins have gone up by 573 bps QoQ and 821.4 bps YoY, due to low gas cost and spot prices. MGL got the advantage of relatively...
|2020-08-10||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||971.85||1226.00||971.85 (12.24%)||12.39||Buy|
Muted performance all around: Mahanagar Gas' (MGL's) reported weak results in Q1FY21 with EBITDA and PAT at Rs800mn (PLe: Rs893mn; 71%YoY) and Rs452mn (PLe: Rs548mn; -73%YoY) respectively. Lower operating profit was due to weak volume, partly compensated by better than expected margins. For Q1, MGL's gross margins were at Rs17.6/scm vs Rs17.9 in Q4, but higher opex/scm at Rs8.2/scm (due to lower volumes) led to...
|2020-08-10||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||Motilal Oswal||971.25||1200.00||971.25 (12.31%)||10.01||Buy|
10 August 2020 CNG volumes were down 78% YoY to 0.48mmscmd. PNG domestic was higher by 7% YoY to 0.43mmscmd. PNG I/C was down 49% YoY to 0.20mmscmd. At the end of 1QFY21, the company had ~256 CNG stations (~184 belong to OMCs). Raigad had ~14 CNG stations, and the minimum work program (MWP) is fulfilled at Raigad. Opex increased ~44% YoY to INR5.8/scm (+15% QoQ). Thus, EBITDA was 5% higher than est. at INR0.8b (-71% YoY; -67% QoQ). Reported PAT stood at INR0.45b (-73% YoY, but +9% vs.
|2020-08-10||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||981.65||750.00||981.65 (11.12%)||31.24||Sell|
|2020-07-03||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||Sharekhan||1073.55||1380.00||1073.55 (1.61%)||26.51||Buy|
Weak gas prices to drive margins, given MGL's pricing power; we model EBITDA margin of Rs. 9.8/Rs. 10.7 per scm for FY21E/FY22E. Mahanagar Gas Limited's (MGL), a dominant city gas distribution (CGD) player in and around Mumbai, is expected to benefit from weak domestic gas prices, (that are likely to fall further over H2FY2021E-H1FY2022E after a sharp 53% reduction since 2015 to $2.4/mmBtu), which would drive MGL's margins given its strong pricing power in compressed natural gas (CNG) and domestic PNG business (86% of overall gas sales volumes of 3 mmscmd in FY2020). Notwithstanding near-term concerns of a fall in...
|2020-06-12||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||1074.20||1137.00||1074.20 (1.55%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Our TP is INR 1,137 (WACC 10%, Terminal growth rate 3.0%). The stock is trading at 12.4x FY22 EPS. Our ADD recommendation on Mahanagar Gas with a TP of INR 1,137 is premised on its loyal customer base of CNG and commercial establishments (who together comprised 77% of 4Qs sales mix), that are less price sensitive than industrial customers that enable MGL to maintain its per unit margins higher than peers.
|2020-06-12||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||1074.20||1145.00||1074.20 (1.55%)||Target met||Hold|
ICICI Securities Limited
The government's priority allocation of domestic gas to CGD sector has enabled MGL to access cheaper gas for CNG, domestic business segments (~85% of sales mix). MGL's strong gas pipeline infrastructure and expanding operations in Mumbai, its adjoining areas and Raigad district will enable it to capture the benefits of the large and growing market given the low penetration. However, sales volume currently is at 42% of pre-Covid level. Given Mumbai is one of the more affected cities by spread of Covid19, we believe recovery in demand (mainly commercial PNG, CNG) will take time and sales growth will be seen only from Q3FY21E. The stock price has...
|2020-06-12||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||Nirmal Bang Institutional||1074.20||1059.00||1074.20 (1.55%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
We maintain Accumulate rating on Mahanagar Gas (MGL) based on our revised DCF-based blended target price (TP) of Rs1059 vs. old TP of Rs752 (2% upside from CMP). We have cut our earnings for FY21E/FY22E by 31%/1% after the concall. MGL reported 4QFY20 PAT at Rs1.67bn, up 24.82% YoY and 9.7% above NBIE estimate. Revenue was a tad lower than expected at Rs6.86bn - 2.7% miss on volume but 2.2% beat on pricing. Gross/EBITDA margin was a beat based on larger savings on gas cost as a result of lower spot LNG prices. The YoY earnings growth was driven by: (i) expansion in gross/EBITDA margin up 725bps/590bps and ii) lower effective tax rate under the new regime. Gas volume was down 6.3% YoY - CNG...
|2020-06-12||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||Dolat Capital||1069.80||1138.00||1069.80 (1.96%)||Target met||Buy|
Volume de-growth at 2.8 mmscmd (down 7.4% YoY and 8.8% QoQ), against our estimates of 3 mmsmcd due to volumes of approx. 0.3 mmscmd lost in last 10 days of March'20 due to nationwide lockdown. The CNG segment (down 8.8% YoY and 12% QoQ) due no movement of people and vehicles during the lockdown The PNG segment reported flattish growth YoY and a decline of 3.8% QoQdomestic segment increased which was offset by decline in industrial and commercial volumes....
|2020-06-11||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||1074.20||710.00||1074.20 (1.55%)||34.91||Sell|
|2020-06-11||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||Motilal Oswal||1074.20||1200.00||1074.20 (1.55%)||10.01||Buy|
11 June 2020 CNG volumes were down 10% YoY to 1.98mmscmd. PNG-domestic was 7% higher YoY to 0.42mmscmd, while PNG-industrial was down 8% YoY to 0.39mmscmd. This resulted in total PNG volumes declining 1% YoY to 0.8mmscmd. Thus, EBITDA was ~9% lower than est. Reported PAT stood at INR1.7b (-11% est. +25% YoY), with the tax rate at 25.9%. most commercials have not opened yet and many operational consumers are facing challenges.
|2020-06-11||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||1069.80||1263.00||1069.80 (1.96%)||15.79||Buy|
We tweak our FY21/22 earnings estimate to factor in lower volumes as well as higher margins; (MGL's five year EBIDTA CAGR at ~20% with margins growing at 14% and volumes at 5% CAGR). MGL remains an enviable...
|2020-04-30||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||CD Equisearch||972.75||1106.00||972.75 (12.14%)||Target met||Accumulate|
y respectively) failed to prevent negligent drop in revenues (1.1% y-o-y) as the benefits of lower natural gas prices were passed on to customers. The addition of over 31 thousand households during the recently concluded quarter bringing the total to more than 1.24 million household...
|2020-04-13||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||Geojit BNP Paribas||947.25||1126.00||947.25 (15.15%)||Target met||Buy|
|2020-03-31||Mahanagar Gas Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||814.90||1115.00||814.90 (33.86%)||Target met||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
Crude prices witnessed a sharp decline in March due to spread of Covid-19 across the globe and Opec deal failure. A likely increase in oil output by both Saudi Arabia and Russia from Q1FY21E and lower demand are expected to lead to a sizeable oversupply in the oil market. Subsequent low oil prices are expected to significantly affect ONGC's profitability....