The 40 reports from 14 analysts offering long term price targets for Mahanagar Gas Ltd. have an average target of 1100.31. The consensus estimate represents an upside of 29.49% from the last price of 849.70.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2020-09-02||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||Dolat Capital||926.25||1007.00||926.25 (-8.26%)||18.51||Hold|
MGL reiterates its position as a trusted natural gas supplier, it remains steadfast to further expand and extend green footprints far and wide, taking strides to responsibly fuel India. During the Pandemic MGL strived to ensure that all customers who need natural gas have an uninterrupted access to the same and they have proactively geared itself to sustain its business in this situation and is firmly on the way to recovery towards PreCovid levels. While there is ample scope for growing the business of MGL organically in its currently authorized GA's, they are continuously looking out for inorganic growth opportunities. Favourable regulatory...
|2020-08-13||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||Geojit BNP Paribas||971.85||1180.00||971.85 (-12.57%)||38.87||Buy|
|2020-08-11||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||981.65||1039.00||981.65 (-13.44%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Pressure on volume hurts margins and earnings We maintain Accumulate rating on Mahanagar Gas (MGL) based on our revised DCF-based blended target price (TP) of Rs1039 vs. old TP of Rs1059. We have cut our earnings for FY21E by 38.6% and left FY22E unchanged after the concall. MGL reported 1QFY21 PAT at Rs453mn, down 73.42% YoY and 50.34% miss vs NBIE estimate. Revenue was 32.56% lower than expected at Rs2.62bn - 27.2%/5.36% miss on volume/pricing. Gross margin and EBITDA margin came in 533bps and 808bps below our estimates, respectively. The YoY plunge in earnings was due to: (i) 599bps fall in EBITDA margin and (ii) 62.5% fall in gas volume CNG/PNG volume down 77.8%/21.2%. Our Accumulate call is based on balanced risk reward...
|2020-08-10||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||971.25||1200.00||971.25 (-12.51%)||41.23||Buy|
10 August 2020 CNG volumes were down 78% YoY to 0.48mmscmd. PNG domestic was higher by 7% YoY to 0.43mmscmd. PNG I/C was down 49% YoY to 0.20mmscmd. At the end of 1QFY21, the company had ~256 CNG stations (~184 belong to OMCs). Raigad had ~14 CNG stations, and the minimum work program (MWP) is fulfilled at Raigad. Opex increased ~44% YoY to INR5.8/scm (+15% QoQ). Thus, EBITDA was 5% higher than est. at INR0.8b (-71% YoY; -67% QoQ). Reported PAT stood at INR0.45b (-73% YoY, but +9% vs.
|2020-08-10||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||Prabhudas Lilladhar||971.85||1226.00||971.85 (-12.57%)||44.29||Buy|
Muted performance all around: Mahanagar Gas' (MGL's) reported weak results in Q1FY21 with EBITDA and PAT at Rs800mn (PLe: Rs893mn; 71%YoY) and Rs452mn (PLe: Rs548mn; -73%YoY) respectively. Lower operating profit was due to weak volume, partly compensated by better than expected margins. For Q1, MGL's gross margins were at Rs17.6/scm vs Rs17.9 in Q4, but higher opex/scm at Rs8.2/scm (due to lower volumes) led to...
|2020-08-10||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||981.65||750.00||981.65 (-13.44%)||11.73||Sell|
|2020-08-10||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||Dolat Capital||981.65||1070.00||981.65 (-13.44%)||Target met||Buy|
The CNG segment (down 77.8% YoY and 75.7% QoQ) due no movement of people and vehicles during the lockdown The domestic PNG segment reported flattish growth sequentially and up 7.1% YoY which was offset by a de-growth of 47% QoQ and 49.3% YoY in Industrial/commercial PNG segment. Overall PNG segment degrew 21.2% YoY and 21.3% QoQdomestic PNG segment increased which was offset by decline in industrial and commercial volumes. Gross margins have gone up by 573 bps QoQ and 821.4 bps YoY, due to low gas cost and spot prices. MGL got the advantage of relatively...
|2020-07-03||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||Sharekhan||1073.55||1380.00||1073.55 (-20.85%)||62.41||Buy|
Weak gas prices to drive margins, given MGL's pricing power; we model EBITDA margin of Rs. 9.8/Rs. 10.7 per scm for FY21E/FY22E. Mahanagar Gas Limited's (MGL), a dominant city gas distribution (CGD) player in and around Mumbai, is expected to benefit from weak domestic gas prices, (that are likely to fall further over H2FY2021E-H1FY2022E after a sharp 53% reduction since 2015 to $2.4/mmBtu), which would drive MGL's margins given its strong pricing power in compressed natural gas (CNG) and domestic PNG business (86% of overall gas sales volumes of 3 mmscmd in FY2020). Notwithstanding near-term concerns of a fall in...
|2020-06-12||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||HDFC Securities||1074.20||1137.00||1074.20 (-20.90%)||33.81||Accumulate|
Our TP is INR 1,137 (WACC 10%, Terminal growth rate 3.0%). The stock is trading at 12.4x FY22 EPS. Our ADD recommendation on Mahanagar Gas with a TP of INR 1,137 is premised on its loyal customer base of CNG and commercial establishments (who together comprised 77% of 4Qs sales mix), that are less price sensitive than industrial customers that enable MGL to maintain its per unit margins higher than peers.
|2020-06-12||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||1074.20||1145.00||1074.20 (-20.90%)||34.75||Hold|
ICICI Securities Limited
The government's priority allocation of domestic gas to CGD sector has enabled MGL to access cheaper gas for CNG, domestic business segments (~85% of sales mix). MGL's strong gas pipeline infrastructure and expanding operations in Mumbai, its adjoining areas and Raigad district will enable it to capture the benefits of the large and growing market given the low penetration. However, sales volume currently is at 42% of pre-Covid level. Given Mumbai is one of the more affected cities by spread of Covid19, we believe recovery in demand (mainly commercial PNG, CNG) will take time and sales growth will be seen only from Q3FY21E. The stock price has...
|2020-06-12||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||1074.20||1059.00||1074.20 (-20.90%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
We maintain Accumulate rating on Mahanagar Gas (MGL) based on our revised DCF-based blended target price (TP) of Rs1059 vs. old TP of Rs752 (2% upside from CMP). We have cut our earnings for FY21E/FY22E by 31%/1% after the concall. MGL reported 4QFY20 PAT at Rs1.67bn, up 24.82% YoY and 9.7% above NBIE estimate. Revenue was a tad lower than expected at Rs6.86bn - 2.7% miss on volume but 2.2% beat on pricing. Gross/EBITDA margin was a beat based on larger savings on gas cost as a result of lower spot LNG prices. The YoY earnings growth was driven by: (i) expansion in gross/EBITDA margin up 725bps/590bps and ii) lower effective tax rate under the new regime. Gas volume was down 6.3% YoY - CNG...
|2020-06-12||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||Dolat Capital||1069.80||1138.00||1069.80 (-20.57%)||33.93||Buy|
Volume de-growth at 2.8 mmscmd (down 7.4% YoY and 8.8% QoQ), against our estimates of 3 mmsmcd due to volumes of approx. 0.3 mmscmd lost in last 10 days of March'20 due to nationwide lockdown. The CNG segment (down 8.8% YoY and 12% QoQ) due no movement of people and vehicles during the lockdown The PNG segment reported flattish growth YoY and a decline of 3.8% QoQdomestic segment increased which was offset by decline in industrial and commercial volumes....
|2020-06-11||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||1074.20||710.00||1074.20 (-20.90%)||16.44||Sell|
|2020-06-11||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||Prabhudas Lilladhar||1069.80||1263.00||1069.80 (-20.57%)||48.64||Buy|
We tweak our FY21/22 earnings estimate to factor in lower volumes as well as higher margins; (MGL's five year EBIDTA CAGR at ~20% with margins growing at 14% and volumes at 5% CAGR). MGL remains an enviable...
|2020-06-11||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||1074.20||1200.00||1074.20 (-20.90%)||41.23||Buy|
11 June 2020 CNG volumes were down 10% YoY to 1.98mmscmd. PNG-domestic was 7% higher YoY to 0.42mmscmd, while PNG-industrial was down 8% YoY to 0.39mmscmd. This resulted in total PNG volumes declining 1% YoY to 0.8mmscmd. Thus, EBITDA was ~9% lower than est. Reported PAT stood at INR1.7b (-11% est. +25% YoY), with the tax rate at 25.9%. most commercials have not opened yet and many operational consumers are facing challenges.
|2020-04-30||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||CD Equisearch||972.75||1106.00||972.75 (-12.65%)||Target met||Accumulate|
y respectively) failed to prevent negligent drop in revenues (1.1% y-o-y) as the benefits of lower natural gas prices were passed on to customers. The addition of over 31 thousand households during the recently concluded quarter bringing the total to more than 1.24 million household...
|2020-04-13||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||Geojit BNP Paribas||947.25||1126.00||947.25 (-10.30%)||32.52||Buy|
|2020-03-31||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||814.90||1115.00||814.90 (4.27%)||31.22||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
Crude prices witnessed a sharp decline in March due to spread of Covid-19 across the globe and Opec deal failure. A likely increase in oil output by both Saudi Arabia and Russia from Q1FY21E and lower demand are expected to lead to a sizeable oversupply in the oil market. Subsequent low oil prices are expected to significantly affect ONGC's profitability....
|2020-03-25||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||743.70||752.00||743.70 (14.25%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
We are upgrading Mahanagar Gas (MGL) from Sell to Accumulate with our revised DCF-based TP of Rs752 (+6% from CMP), assuming regulated tariff, post the 32% crash in the stock in the past three months. We have cut our FY20-22E estimates by 2.3%/14.9%/15.9% based on tempered volume assumptions for the twin impact of COVID19 and the slowdown. We see decline of 2.5% in 4QFY20 that could spill over into 1HFY21, with the growth likely to revive over the next 6-12 months. We still have concerns over the potential transition to 20% open access for MGL's Mumbai franchise, which could pose the risk of attrition in CNG and Industrial market share to the extent of 20%. Our upgrade to Accumulate is based on the following: (i) the moderately favorable...
|2020-03-20||Mahanagar Gas Ltd.||Reliance Securities||792.85||792.85 (7.17%)||Sell|
Muted Volume Growth with Sequential Margin Contraction Mahanagar Gas (MAHGL) has reported a muted performance (albeit marginally above our estimates) in 3QFY20. While total sales volume grew by a muted 3% YoY (+2% QoQ) and EBITDA/ scm sequentially declined to Rs9.2 (vs. Rs9.9 in 2QFY20). Despite a muted growth in sales volume, its net sales decreased by 1% YoY and 5% QoQ to Rs7.4bn (2.3% below our estimate) mainly due to ~Rs2/scm cut in CNG & PNG prices during the quarter. Overall price realisation of Rs26.5/scm decreased by 7% YoY and 4% QoQ. Its gross profit grew by 6% YoY to Rs3.9bn on account of 8% YoY decline in cost of natural gas. EBITDA increased by 8% YoY (-5% QoQ) to Rs2.6bn (in line with...