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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    17 Jul 2026, 04:48PM
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 17, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 17, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Amber Enterprises India:

    This consumer electronics company rose 2.1% on July 16 after the government approved a new Rs 62,500 crore Mobile Phone Manufacturing Scheme. Amber is likely to benefit from the policy, which rewards companies that manufacture more smartphone components and source parts locally.

    The government has also removed customs duty until March 2029 on key inputs used to manufacture display assemblies and wireless charging modules, lowering the cost of making these components.

    In June, Amber set up partnerships to manufacture smartphones for Oppo, Realme and OnePlus in India. The company expects to manufacture about 20% of Oppo's India volumes by FY28. It plans to increase domestic value addition from 10-12% to 35-40% over the next six years by manufacturing more parts in India instead of just assembling smartphones.

    Amber has also secured government approval for electronics component projects worth more than Rs 4,500 crore under the Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme, making them eligible for government incentives. These include a Rs 3,200 crore investment through its joint venture, Ascent-K Circuit, to manufacture advanced circuit boards.

    In FY26, revenue from Amber's electronics division jumped 49%, while operating profit surged 89%, driven by growth in its circuit board manufacturing and assembly business. Executive Chair & CEO Jasbir Singh said, “The electronics division is expected to grow by around 40% in FY27.” He expects the growth to be supported by the new projects and acquisitions that have expanded Amber's capabilities in printed circuit boards, industrial automation and power electronics.

    BOB Capital Markets reiterated its 'Buy' rating on the stock with a higher target price of Rs 9,300. The brokerage expects the Oppo partnership to generate large production volumes while requiring relatively little investment. It also expects the new mobile manufacturing scheme to improve profitability as Amber expands local component manufacturing.

    2. Adani Energy Solutions (AESL):

    The stock of this power & electric utilities company climbed to a new 52-week high of Rs 1,757.7 on July 17. The rally was sparked by Morgan Stanley raising its target price to Rs 1,943 while maintaining an 'Overweight' rating. The brokerage highlighted that the company is positioned to ride India's power demand wave, thanks to its foothold in power transmission, smart metering, and emerging data centre power solutions. The stock features on a screener of companies that have shown relative outperformance compared to the industry over the past month.

    In June, AESL acquired a 100% stake in IntelliSmart Infrastructure for Rs 3,050 crore. IntelliSmart builds and runs smart meters for power distribution companies under long-term contracts. Analysts at Deven Choksey Research highlighted that prior to this deal, AESL held a smart meter order book of 2.5 crore meters, while IntelliSmart managed about 2.2 crore meters. Combining these two portfolios brings their total to over 4.7 crore smart meters, officially making AESL the largest smart metering platform in India.

    This acquisition comes as India's smart meter market undergoes a government-backed upgrade cycle. Under the Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme (RDSS), the government aims to deploy 25 crore prepaid smart meters nationwide. With an estimated national investment exceeding Rs 1.5 lakh crore, this countrywide modernization initiative is unlocking a growth runway for AESL.

    Propelled by the rapid smart meter rollout on the ground, AESL’s FY26 revenue grew 15.8% YoY to reach Rs 28,325.2 crore. The company’s management surpassed its original FY26 installation target of 70 lakh units by setting up 83 lakh smart meters. Looking ahead, they are aiming to install an additional 1 crore meters in FY27. Backed by rising power demand and supportive policies, Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects Q1FY27 revenue to jump 10.6% and net profit to rise 11.8%.

    3. Nuvoco Vistas Corporation:

    Thiscement producer surged 19.2% over two trading sessions after reporting strongQ1FY27 results on July 13. Revenue increased 9% YoY, while net profit grew 20% and beat Forecaster estimates. Higher cement prices, stronger sales in high-margin regions, and a better mix of premium products drove this growth.

    On the profitability front, EBITDA came in 30% above ICICI Securities’ estimate as the company defended its margins, despite rising energy costs amid the US-Iran conflict. Nuvococut its petcoke, a fuel burned to generate the high heat needed to produce cement, usage by over a quarter to 27% sequentially. The company replaced this fuel with domestic coal and higher-quality limestone. These measures helped contain fuel costs within management’s guidance.

    During the quarter, Nuvoco expanded in western India to reduce its reliance on eastern markets and create a diversified presence. The company commissioned its 2 million tonne per annum (MTPA) Surat plant in July, ahead of schedule, and is building a phased clinker and cement facility in Kutch. These projects open direct access to Gujarat and surrounding markets, freeing Nuvoco’s Rajasthan plants to target northern India. 

    This broader geographic reach cushioned Nuvoco against regional price swings while supporting itsgoal to raise total capacity from 27 MTPA to 35 MTPA by FY28.

    Logistics was a challenge during the quarter. Because railways prioritised coal deliveries to power plants, Nuvoco had fewer trains to transport its clinker, a key material used to make cement. The company was forced to use road transport, which pushed per-tonne freight costs up 9.3%. MD Jayakumar Krishnaswamy noted that these transport bottlenecks cost the company about 4% in potential sales volume. Headded, “I’m looking at cement demand growth between 7% and 8% in the next three quarters.” Government infrastructure spending and housing activity are expected to support cement demand.

    Post results, ICICI Securitiesmaintained its 'Hold' rating. The brokerage remains concerned about Nuvoco's high debt and low return on equity. They noted that cement companies plan to add around 180 million tonnes of capacity through FY28. This will increase cement supply, making it harder for companies to raise prices and protect their profit margins.

    4. Himadri Speciality Chemical:

    This carbon materials manufacturer surged 14% over the past week after reporting Q1FY27 results and announcing Rs 368 crore of fresh capex into specialty materials. Revenue rose 28% YoY and net profit grew 27%, both comfortably beating Forecaster estimates, despite a 6% decline in sales volumes. MD & CEO Anurag Choudhary attributed the performance to “the continued shift in our product mix towards higher-value segments” as the company focuses on growing earnings faster than revenue.

    Himadri is India's largest producer of coal tar pitch with over 65% market share in India. It currently has a coal tar distillation capacity of 6 lakh million tonnes per annum (MTPA) and a carbon black capacity of 2.5 lakh MTPA. Management has ruled out further capacity additions in pitch distillation. Instead, it plans to increase utilisation from about 80% to over 90% while converting more output into value-added products

    The latest investments are aimed at moving higher up the value chain. Himadri will invest Rs 70 crore to set up India's first commercial carbon nanotube (CNT) plant, expected to be commissioned by Q4FY27. It is also investing Rs 170 crore to convert part of its existing carbon black produce into Super Speciality Carbon Black for high-performance applications such as batteries, electronics and engineering plastics. 

    Beyond speciality chemicals, Himadri is expanding into battery materials. It commissioned a 200 MTPA anode materials facility in April and expects to commission a 2,000 MTPA LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) cathode materials plant by Q3FY27. The company has also increased its stake in International Battery Company and continues to back Sicona's silicon-carbon anode technology. With this, Choudhary aims to build “a fully integrated platform” across battery materials.

    Choudhary expects the firm to deliver Rs 1,100 crore in profit by FY28, about 50% above FY26 levels. He expects this growth to come from speciality chemicals, the phased commissioning of new advanced materials projects and the gradual scale-up of its battery materials business.

    5. LTM: 

    This IT services stock surged 5.7% over the past week after reporting healthy Q1FY27 results on July 11. Revenue grew 2.8% QoQ, while net profit rose 5.3%, supported by lower depreciation costs and forex gains. Growth was led by the financial services and technology segments, with both revenue and profit meeting Forecaster estimates.

    Demand for core modernisation, cloud and AI projects in the US helped the financial services business, which contributes over a third of revenue, return to growth. The technology segment also benefited from strong deal wins in AI, cloud and software engineering across North America, highlighting improving enterprise technology spending.

    Not all businesses contributed equally. The manufacturing segment (19% of revenue) declined due to seasonal weakness, while the consumer business (20% of revenue) was weighed down by delays in an Indian tax project and supply chain disruptions in the Middle East. Management expects both headwinds to ease from the second quarter.

    The company also sees a shift in enterprise AI spending. Management said the market has moved from "AI creation" to "AI deployment", with large-scale AI implementation becoming the next growth opportunity. Reflecting this trend, the company's AI business has reached a quarterly run rate of around $150 million.

    MD & CEO Venu Lambu outlined a positive outlook for the year, saying, “We expect FY27 revenue growth to better the 6% delivered in FY26 after accelerating through 2Q and 2H.” Management also reiterated its goal of doubling revenue over the next five years, supported by the acquisition of European technology provider Randstad, expansion in Asia-Pacific, growth in AI-led projects and a recovery in discretionary technology spending.

    Following the results, Motilal Oswal retained its 'Buy' rating and raised its target price to Rs 4,900. The brokerage expects LTIMindtree to deliver a 13% EPS CAGR over FY27-28, supported by improving deal wins, continued growth in AI spending and a gradual recovery in its largest financial services business.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    17 Jul 2026, 02:34PM

    FPIs cut heavyweights, favour capex over consumption

    By Anagh Keremutt

    Every few weeks, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz return to the centre of global markets. It’s the undying zombie, driving fears over oil prices and inflation.

    For an oil-importing economy like India, these two factors, oil and inflation, are influencing how foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) position their portfolios. Over the first six volatile months of 2026, FPIs sold Rs 2.7 lakh crore in Indian equities.

    Financials and IT accounted for over half of these outflows as index heavyweights took the hit from risk-averse investors and rebalancing by MSCI (provider of financial benchmarks). Volatility in crude oil prices have also weighed on oil & gas stocks, and FPIs cut exposure to consumer-facing sectors amid a softer spending outlook and higher input costs.

    Capital goods and metals were among the few positive sectors, helped by government spending and manufacturing-led investment.

    Abhay Laijawala, chief investment officer at Lighthouse Canton, said, “The worst of the FPI selling is over and outflows will reduce significantly.” He added that buying in large banks could power the markets higher.

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyse where foreign investors sold the most, and where they continued to invest.

    Global risks drive selling in market leaders

    Most sectors saw a brief turnaround in FPI flows in February as a trade deal with the US boosted confidence in the rupee. That optimism faded as crude prices climbed and inflation fears rose.

    Oil & gas stocks saw FPI outflows of Rs 28,646 crore during the first six months of this year as the war fuelled volatility in crude oil prices, clouding companies’ earnings outlook.

    During periods of economic uncertainty, FPIs usually cut exposure to index heavyweights such as financials and IT since they’re the easiest stocks to sell, because of their high liquidity.

    Financials saw the highest outflows, with over Rs 1.1 lakh crore leaving the sector, while IT recorded outflows of Rs 34,247 crore between January and June. Financials also saw passive selling after MSCI reduced India's weight in its Emerging Market Index from 13.4% in January to around 10.9% in May, forcing index-tracking funds to cut exposure to large banks.

    The IT sector was already grappling with weaker US demand as clients accelerated AI adoption, reducing spending on traditional IT services. With about 60% of revenue coming from the US, the conflict only exacerbated investors’ concerns.

    The Q1FY27 earnings season has offered some relief, with the Nifty IT rising over 4% in the past week after TCS posted better-than-expected results.

    Healthcare is seen as a defensive sector, but it wasn't immune this time. FPIs sold Rs 20,938 crore during the first half of 2026. New launches such as semaglutide should support revenue growth. However, Goldman Sachs expects profitability to remain under pressure, particularly for companies with significant exposure to the US generics market. Companies such as Dr Reddy’s, Zydus Life, Cipla and Sun Pharma also lost the benefit of high-margin generic Revlimid sales as competition intensified. Pricing weakened, while the product mix shifted towards lower-margin products.

    By the second half of June, financials drew their biggest fortnightly inflows in 14 months. FPIs responded to the RBI’s measures, which helped banks raise overseas funds more cheaply and allowed them to lend to NRIs against foreign currency deposits. Citi Research said these changes could improve banks' margins by reducing funding costs.

    Weak demand weighs on domestic sectors

    The RBI's consumer confidence survey in May suggests households are becoming more cautious. Urban households became less willing to spend on discretionary items, while rural households saw a sharper decline in non-essential spending plans.

    Urban future expectations (which measure long-term consumer optimism) fell to 118.7, the lowest since September 2023. Rural expectations dropped sharply to 119.3 from 129.3 in January over concerns of an El Niño-led hit to rural incomes. A reading above the RBI's neutral level of 100 still signals that households expect conditions to improve over the next year.

    FMCG, consumer services, and consumer durables together saw net outflows of Rs 51,679 crore during the first half of 2026. Higher fuel and food prices squeezed household budgets, while expensive valuations made the sectors less attractive to FPIs. 

    Automakers faced higher input and freight costs due to disruptions in key shipping routes. The sector recorded net outflows of Rs 30,885 crore during the first half of this year as companies faced a difficult choice: absorb rising costs or pass them on to customers. The sector is also expected to see slower growth in FY27 after tax reforms helped drive a strong performance in the previous fiscal year.

    FPIs also sold Rs 9,668 crore worth of construction materials stocks, while realty saw outflows of Rs 8,337 crore during the first six months of 2026. Developers estimated that construction costs rose by as much as 25% since hostilities escalated in West Asia. Shipping companies also rerouted vessels via the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transit times and raising freight costs by Rs 1.5-3.5 lakh per container. 

    Telecom stocks saw outflows of Rs 17,423 crore as investors awaited another round of tariff hikes after the industry's last broad price increase in July 2024. Delayed tariff action curbed expectations of stronger earnings.

    FPIs back India's investment cycle

    FPIs have been selective with their inflows, favouring sectors linked to India's investment cycle. Capital goods and metals together saw inflows of nearly Rs 34,000 crore during the first half of this year. The services sector, comprising logistics, transport infrastructure and commercial services, drew Rs 6,090 crore. Power attracted modest inflows of Rs 965 crore.

    CRISIL expects revenue in India’s capital goods industry to grow by 12-14%, driven by government spending and higher investment in power and infrastructure. India is likely to see higher power demand as households increasingly use air conditioners and cooling appliances amid rising temperatures and heatwave conditions. JM Financial said coal-based plants were running at nearly full capacity to meet this demand.

    Indian metal companies largely follow global metal prices. Expectations of tighter global supplies and fresh stimulus measures in China boosted metal prices, while the Indian government's anti-dumping duties added to positive sentiment.

    During June, however, both capital goods and metals saw profit booking after consistent inflows. 

    Even so, broader FPI sentiment appears to have improved in recent weeks, with FPIs turning net buyers so far in July after four consecutive months of selling. The government's decision to scrap capital gains tax for FPIs and remove the 20% tax on interest income has improved their post-tax returns. That, coupled with a stronger rupee, could help sustain foreign inflows if global conditions don’t deteriorate.

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    Nifty is in a tug of war, with the volatility index rising sharply. What do you think will drive market direction in July?

    July 13, 2026

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    The Baseline
    16 Jul 2026, 04:20PM
    The loose change empires: Micro fees that are building highly profitable companies

    The loose change empires: Micro fees that are building highly profitable companies

    Indians are not really big on subscriptions. Consumer surveys confirm this year after year: that unlike Americans, we pay far less, and resist auto renewals and recurring charges.  Regulators in India have responded accordingly, and the RBI requires OTPs for high-value recurring subscriptions.

    So what are companies to do?

    Consider how an Indian customer may respond to two possible business models. A company offers you food delivery for a monthly subscription fee of just Rs 15, assuming you get food delivered at least once a month. 

    In the second option, the company charges you no subscription fee. It simply charges a small transaction fee for every delivery. That fee starts at Rs. 2. Over the years, in a boiling frog experiment (where the consumer is the frog), the fee slowly increases to Rs. 15 per order. 

    Guess which model makes the company a billion dollar business. The company, Zomato, knows that the pain of payment for a customer is a lot less when the fee is not charged upfront, but is instead bundled into a larger transaction. If you are paying Rs. 350 for your food (the average order value on Zomato), a Rs. 15 fee doesn't feel like too much.

    Even as Zomato has steadily increased its fees since 2024, it hasn't seen big user churn. Its repeat order rate in fact, is 73% in Q1 2026, an increase of 1.5% YoY. Order frequency has risen from 3.66 last year to 3.74 orders per month this year.

    In India, this model, where companies charge small fees that feel like "loose change" to customers, has helped build massive, highly profitable businesses. For the companies that pull this off, this model also comes with significant advantages. Let's dive in.


    A very successful ticketing business built on micro fees

    The online railway ticketing platform IRCTC is in a sweet spot. It's in an industry that is digitizing rapidly: e-ticketing jumped from around 50% of all tickets booked in 2014 to 89% today. Both passenger volumes and average ticket prices are rising. Everywhere, the arrow is pointing up. 

    IRCTC is the exclusive online ticketing provider for the Indian railways, and ticketing is its most porfitable vertical, thanks to the convenience fee it charges on every ticket booked on its website and app. It charges a non-refundable convenience fee of Rs 15 for a non-AC class and Rs 30 for an AC class ticket.  In FY26 alone, the company processed approximately 13.4 crore tickets.

    IRCTC's consolidated Operating Profit Margin stood at 31.9% in FY26. The Internet Ticketing segment however, has a sky high margin of 82.5%, and is the primary reason for the healthy margin overall, even as it contributes less than 30% of IRCTC's revenue.

    This profit contribution will only increase as railway ridership grows. The cost of maintaining and expanding ticketing infrastructure is marginal. IRCTC's revenues are also protected: even if you book a train ticket on a third-party app like Google Pay or MakeMyTrip, the transaction finally flows through IRCTC's backend infrastructure. No private player can legally set up a parallel digital railway ticketing system.

    Living off the IP: Streaming royalties keep Tips Music on a winning trajectory

    A player in an entirely different industry which has benefited from the "loose change" micro fees model is Tips Music. The micro fees it charges here are the licensing fees on the massive music catalogue it has built over the years, which contains over 30,000 songs in 25+ languages.

    The company charges micro-royalties per stream (around 5 to 15 paise per song play). It generates approximately 70-75% of its revenue through streaming services like Spotify, Saavn, Amazon Music, social media like YouTube and Instagram, and licensing deals with partners like Warner Music. The few paise per play adds up quickly across millions of active listeners streaming music 24/7.

    Because the cost of recording these vintage catalogs was recovered decades ago, every incremental stream represents near 100% profit for Tips. The moat is impenetrable, since it's impossible to replicate the legacy music catalog Tips Music has. 

    As Tips' library grows and digital penetration increases, its revenue has grown faster than fixed costs like employees and admin. The growth guidance has been steady at around 20-25%. The company is an easy moneymaker, since it does not have to do too much to protect its business. 

    AvenuesAI: Combining micro fees with AI tools

    AvenuesAI, formerly Infibeam, is similar to the micro fees models that we discussed earlier, with a twist. Best known for its payments related brand CCAvenue, it is the only listed transaction platform in India that is also increasingly AI-powered. 

    Every time you buy something on a website, like a pair of jeans or a movie ticket, AvenuesAI's payment gateway takes a small transaction fee between 0.5% and 2%, depending on the payment mode.

    In FY26, the company's revenues jumped by over 100%, while payments volumes rose by 55%. AvenuesAI is also a relatively lean, digital-first software play. It does not carry the heavy operating overhead of distributing physical hardware (like PayTM boxes) or managing high consumer marketing costs (like Zomato). This allows more of its micro transaction value to flow directly to its bottom line. 

    And the company processes massive transaction volumes. While a portion of the gross fee is passed on to card networks like Visa and Mastercard, and banks, the net revenue it keeps is highly profitable. The company's operating profit margin, already high at 59% in FY25, jumped to 64% in FY26. And as payment volume grows, the fixed costs of the platform are spread over a larger base, allowing EBITDA margins to expand. 

    Another driver to rising margins in recent quarters is AvenuesAI's embedding of its Phronetic AI into its systems. The company is using AI to optimize transactions in real time, by for example, automatically switching to the most successful bank gateway to reduce payment failure rates, and identifying risky transactions and fraud in real time to prevent losses. 

    Overall, all these "loose change" companies are benefiting from three major drivers: 1) they operate a micro fee model with low marginal costs 2) they are players that have held off the competition (Zomato was an early entrant in food delivery, IRCTC has a moat protected by the state, Tips controls a legacy music catalog, and AvenuesAI is in a payment gateway space heavily regulated by the RBI) and 3) all of them are in rapidly growing industries.

    It's a combination that is hard to beat. 

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    The Baseline
    14 Jul 2026
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - July 14, 2026

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - July 14, 2026

    By Abdullah Shah

    1. Eternal (Zomato): 

    Motilal Oswal retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this food delivery provider with a target price of Rs 380 per share, implying an upside of 32.8%. Analysts Abhishek Pathak and Keval Bhagat note that Zomato’s food delivery business is stabilising, while Blinkit offers a major long-term opportunity in hyperlocal commerce despite a short-term growth slowdown.

    The food delivery business is benefiting from customer-friendly changes. These include allowing Gold members to place smaller orders and offering more affordable options to price-conscious customers. Higher platform fees are also helping the company earn more from each order, while profit margins remain within management’s target range.

    Zomato is also expanding its District platform, which offers services in dining and entertainment. Analysts estimate District to generate around $125 million, or Rs 1,200 crore, in operating profit by FY30.

    While quick-commerce growth is moderating from previous highs, management's projection of a 60% CAGR over the next few years indicates strong, untapped demand. Pathak and Bhagat expect Zomato to deliver revenue and net profit CAGRs of 60.5% and 239.8%, respectively, over FY27–28.

    2. Godrej Consumer Products: 

    ICICI Securities upgrades this personal products retailer to a ‘Buy’ rating from ‘Add’, with a target price of Rs 1,300, an upside of 22.5%. Analysts Manoj Menon and Akshay Krishnan upgraded the stock as they expect the company to enter a period of double-digit volume growth.

    Menon and Krishnan believe this momentum will continue over the medium term, driven by deeper market penetration, product launches, and a recovery in international markets. For instance, low-cost incense sticks are drawing new consumers into the home insecticide category. Management views this as a long-term opportunity to upgrade rural users to high-margin liquid vaporisers as electrification spreads.

    The company's past expansion of the Cinthol brand into skincare yielded mixed results. But management wants a second shot at this, and plans to expand the core brand with new product launches. Menon and Krishnan note that the company's Q1FY27 update shows international margins recovering, with both Indonesia and Africa witnessing volume and revenue turnarounds. They project a revenue CAGR of 13% and a net profit CAGR of 20% over FY27–28.

    3. Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone: 

    Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this ports and logistics company, with a target price of Rs 2,050, an upside of 12.5%. Analysts Alok Deora and Shivam Agarwal remain positive on the company due to strong cargo growth and a strategic partnership with MSC Group at Vizhinjam Port. The company handled 91.4 million tonnes of cargo in the first two months of FY27, a 15% YoY increase.

    MSC Group will invest $1.4 billion for a 49% stake in Vizhinjam Port. This partnership is expected to attract more ships that transfer cargo from one vessel to another, strengthening the port's role as a major global cargo hub. Management plans to expand Vizhinjam’s annual capacity by 3.6x by 2028. MSC’s global shipping network is also anticipated to bring more cargo from trade routes connected to Bangladesh and East Africa.

    Deora and Agarwal project logistics and marine services to become key growth drivers alongside core port operations. They forecast cargo volumes to grow 11% over FY27–28. They also estimate a CAGR of 17% in revenue, 18% in EBITDA, and 22% in net profit.

    4. Strides Pharma Science: 

    Geojit maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this pharmaceutical company, with a target price of Rs 1,352, an upside of 26.2%. Analyst Antu Eapan Thomas favours the company as it expands beyond the US and works to reduce its reliance on a single market. Non-US markets now contribute about 49% of total business, with developing market revenue rising 22% in FY26.

    Management also aims to increase US revenue to $400 million by FY28 from $258 million in FY26. Growth is projected to come from more than 60 products that are awaiting approval. The company also plans to restart the sale of several older products that it had previously stopped selling.

    Analyst note that the company is investing in specialised medicines such as nasal sprays, strictly regulated drugs and improved versions of existing treatments. Outside the US, faster product approvals and newly acquired Sandoz brands are expected to fuel growth. Strides paid about $12 million upfront to acquire and license these specific Sandoz brands.

    Thomas expects new launches, geographic expansion, and lower costs to drive revenue and profit. Stronger cash generation should also help the company reduce debt while controlling capital expenditure.

    5. ICICI Bank: 

    Deven Choksey maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this private bank, with a target price of Rs 1,691, implying a 20.1% upside. Analysts Neel Mehta and Maahir Mani highlight that a strong recovery in credit demand gives the bank momentum to expand its loan book. Steady core operations, rising net interest income (NII), and a reliable retail franchise further strengthen its market position.

    Analysts believe India’s economic growth will continue to drive demand for corporate and non-banking financial company loans. To capture this market, management plans to grow total loans in line with the broader 17.5% YoY industrial credit expansion in Q1FY27, supported by steady retail and business banking disbursements.

    Mehta and Mani note that ICICI Bank is raising term deposits to manage its loan-to-deposit ratio and fund credit growth. The bank also plans to leverage the revival in industrial credit to boost earnings. The analysts project an NII CAGR of 12.9% and a net profit CAGR of 13.7% through FY28.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    10 Jul 2026
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 10, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 10, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. TVS Motor Company:

    The stock of this 2 and 3-wheeler manufacturing company rose over 7% this past month, riding high on one of its strongest monthly performances in recent history. The auto major clocked its highest-ever sales for both a single quarter and a single month, delivering 16.3 lakh units in Q1FY27 and 5.9 lakh units in June alone. The stock features on a screener of companies that have shown relative outperformance compared to the industry over the past month.

    This growth propelled TVS past heavyweights Hero MotoCorp and Honda, making it the top two-wheeler seller with 5.7 lakh units sold in June, a 47% YoY jump. The crown jewel of this update was its electric vehicle (EV) segment. TVS's electric two-wheeler sales jumped from 14,400 units in June 2025 to 48,537 units in June 2026. This allowed TVS to maintain its EV leadership with a 24.3% market share, driven by the popular iQube portfolio. The company is also expanding its EV presence in the electric three wheeler space through partnerships. In April, it signed a joint development agreement with Hyundai to co-develop electric three-wheelers, with Hyundai leading design and R&D, and TVS overseeing manufacturing and sales.

    TVS also made waves internationally, with June exports up 47% to 1.7 lakh units, driven by a steady recovery in Sri Lanka and growing momentum across Latin America (LATAM), which management identified as a key market for the next two to three years. To support future growth, the company has earmarked Rs 3,500 crore in capex for FY27, including Rs 2,000 crore for product development. Management expects commodity inflation equivalent to 3-5% of revenue in Q1FY27, due to higher steel, aluminium, and crude oil derivative costs, with around 35% of the impact offset through price hikes.

    Morgan Stanley retained its bullish ‘Buy’ rating on TVS with a target price of Rs 4,327, projecting that the stock price will march upward within the next 30 days. The brokerage highlighted the powerful sales momentum of TVS's premium motorcycles and scooters as major market-share winners, while backing its robust export engine as a critical driver for continued growth.

    2. Kalyan Jewellers India: 

    Thisjewellery retailer rose 33.3% over the past three trading sessions after Citireiterated its ‘Buy’ rating and set a target price of Rs 750, implying an upside potential of 57.5%. The brokerage remained positive after Kalyan Jewellers reported a strongQ1FY27 business update, with revenue growing 38% YoY on healthy demand across India and international markets. However, growth was still below analysts’ estimate of around 45%.

    Its India business grew over 38%, supported by a healthy same-store sales increase of around 28%. This indicates that improvement was driven not just by new store additions but also by stronger sales from existing stores. The strong performance came despite the 28-day Adhik Maas period, a traditional slowdown for wedding shopping that occurs every three years. 

    However, Citinoted that Kalyan’s India business grew slower than Titan’s for the first time in 13 quarters, due to its slower expansion pace. Kalyan added 17 showrooms during the quarter, down from 24 in the previous quarter, while Titan added 77 stores in Q1FY27, up from 47. Commenting on store expansion, Ramesh Kalyanaraman, Executive Director of Kalyan,said, “We plan to open 150 showrooms across Kalyan, Candere and the new regional brand in FY27.”

    International operations also delivered steady numbers, with revenue rising around 35%, contributing 14% of total revenue. The Middle East business jumped around 30%, even as geopolitical tensions reduced footfall in April.

    Kalyan also launched a “Shine with India” campaign in May to increase the use of recycled gold and reduce its dependence on imported gold. This became important after the governmentraised import duty on gold and silver to 15% from 6%. A higher share of recycled gold helped Kalyan reduce its reliance on imports and manage cost pressures. 

    Citi also flagged a few key risks. The brokerage said that weaker jewellery demand, slower debt reduction or any shift away from Kalyan’s asset-light expansion model could hurt investor sentiment. 

    3. Torrent Pharmaceuticals:

    This pharmaceutical company rose 5.2% over the past week after receiving NCLT approval for its merger with JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals (JBCPL). Torrent Pharma acquired the company for Rs 25,689 crore to boost its position in chronic therapies, expand its international footprint, and add a niche contract manufacturing business (CDMO).

    While Torrent is already a major player in cardiac, gastro and paediatric therapies, JB adds scale in ophthalmology (eye care) and gynaecology (women's health). JB's lozenges-focused CDMO business also boosts Torrent's manufacturing capabilities.

    The merger increases Torrent’s network of medical representatives by nearly 33%, allowing it to reach more doctors and sell a wider range of medicines. MD Aman Mehta said, "Certain low-margin businesses of JBCPL have been discontinued," and that the combined entity is expected to generate Rs 450 crore of cost savings over three years.

    The acquisition has been largely debt-funded through Rs 11,000 crore of borrowings at an interest rate of about 7.2%. Forecaster expects interest expense to more than double this year before easing in FY28. Despite concerns over higher debt, Torrent's track record of successfully integrating acquisitions such as Elder Pharma and Curatio offers some comfort. 

    Torrent was also the first to launch generic oral semaglutide in India and has introduced both injectable and oral versions under Semalix and Sembolic brands. It held a 38% share among generic players in April, thanks to its early launch and wider sales network. It is also looking to tap into international markets such as Brazil, where semaglutide has become a roughly $1 billion market.

    ICICI Securities maintained its ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It believes Torrent’s leadership in chronic therapies, pricing power in India and early traction in generic GLP-1 drugs (such as semaglutide) should support earnings growth. The brokerage feels that despite these tailwinds, most of the positives have already been factored into the current price.

    4. Info Edge (India):

    This internet company surged 13% on Tuesday after reporting its Q1FY27 business update. Standalone billings grew 14.4% YoY, accelerating from the 9-11% range seen through FY26. The company also acquired edtech platform Coding Ninjas for around Rs 40 crore, making it a wholly owned subsidiary.

    The recruitment business, which includes Naukri, Naukrigulf, iimjobs and hirist, contributes over 70% of revenue and operates at margins of around 57%. Recruitment billings rose 17.5% in Q1, helped by strong demand for AI and machine learning talent. MD Hitesh Oberoi said, “If we are able to grow our topline in double digits, margins should remain the same.” However, he cautioned that margins could come under pressure if growth slows to 7-8%, as fresh investments in JobHai and AI will continue regardless.

    Following the update, Citi upgraded the stock from 'Sell' to 'Buy' with a target price of Rs 1,400, noting that billings growth is being driven by higher average revenue per user (ARPU) rather than a recovery in hiring. Naukri's own JobSpeak Index shows hiring activity rose just 4.3% in Q1, with May nearly flat.

    Outside recruitment, 99acres continues to gain ground in online real estate. Q1 billings rose 16.6%, rebounding from a near-flat Q4, while the platform maintained a traffic share of over 50% across major cities. Oberoi expects the business to double over the next three years, achieve EBITDA margins of 25-30%, and turn cash-generative this fiscal year.

    Info Edge's other businesses present a mixed picture. Jeevansathi billings grew 14% as it moved closer to breakeven, supported by rising engagement in Hindi-speaking markets. Shiksha, however, remained under pressure, with Q1 billings falling 23% as AI-led changes in search behaviour reduced Google referral traffic. The company is pivoting toward counselling services and AI voicebots to offset this decline.

    5. UNO Minda:

    This auto parts maker rose 4% over the past week after announcing its foray into the passenger vehicle (PV) seating systems market. The company will invest around Rs 320 crore in a greenfield plant in Maharashtra. Commercial production is expected to begin by FY28.

    The project marks Uno Minda's entry into a higher-value product category through its joint venture with Japan's TACHI-S, which until now manufactured only seat recliners. The venture has already secured an anchor order from a leading PV manufacturer. MD Ravi Mehra said the expansion will increase the company's value per vehicle by expanding its presence in a more technology-intensive segment.

    The seating business is part of a broader expansion strategy. Uno Minda has earmarked around Rs 1,750 crore of capex for FY27, with nearly 60% allocated to growth projects. These include new alloy wheel plants for two- and four-wheelers and a powertrain facility to manufacture electric drive units and hybrid transmissions. Group CFO Sunil Bohra expects 7 of the company's 11 ongoing projects to commence or ramp up production this fiscal year.

    The investment cycle is likely to keep margins under pressure in the near term. Mehra said, "We expect EBITDA margin to remain around 11% during FY27," despite commodity prices rising 30-40% and labour costs in Haryana increasing 35%. To offset these pressures, the company is negotiating with customers to shorten price-adjustment cycles from quarterly to monthly.

    Following the announcement, Motilal Oswal initiated coverage with a 'Buy' rating and a target price of Rs 1,406. The brokerage believes Uno Minda's diversified, powertrain-agnostic portfolio spanning switches, lighting, alloy wheels and seating systems positions it well to expand into new product categories. It expects revenue and net profit to grow at CAGRs of 19% and 23%, respectively, through FY28. Key risks include input cost volatility linked to the West Asia conflict and margin pressure from new plant ramp-ups.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    07 Jul 2026
    Are active mutual funds worth the extra fees? We analysed over 200 funds to find out

    Are active mutual funds worth the extra fees? We analysed over 200 funds to find out

    By Tejas MD
    MF winners

    If you've followed the markets over the last year, you've probably seen the permanent headline: FIIs selling, DIIs buying, and everyone on social media debating who's making the right move.

    But after months of selling, FIIs turned net buyers in the second half of June as oil prices fell, with the financial services sector attracting the most interest.

    Whether this marks a real shift or a temporary reversal is anyone's guess. But the stock market over the past year has become less reliant on foreign inflows, as domestic investors became the market's biggest source of support via mutual funds. In 2026, mutual funds invested Rs 2,99,205.9 crore in Indian equities, more than offsetting FII outflows of Rs 2,71,288.4 crore.

    In this week's Analyticks, we look at where active mutual funds have actually earned their higher fees and the categories where passive/index MFs may be the better bet.

    Active advantage?: Outperforming mutual fund categories

    Most investors judge a mutual fund by its returns. But for an active MF, the critical question is whether it consistently beats its benchmark, and delivers better risk-adjusted returns. If it doesn't, paying a higher expense ratio than a passive index fund may not be worth it.

    To find this out, we analysed the performance of over 200 active direct growth equity mutual funds across five categories over the past decade: Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap, Value and Multi & Flexi Cap.

    We compared returns, alpha, risk, the percentage of funds outperforming their benchmarks, Trendlyne checklist scores, and the highest-rated funds in each category, to identify where active management adds value.

    The winners are Small Cap, Value and Flexi Cap funds. These had both the strongest benchmark outperformance and the highest proportion of winning funds. In contrast, Mid Cap funds found it much harder to generate consistent alpha. 

    High return doesn't always mean better performance 

    Based on just returns, Mid Cap and Small Cap MFs appear to be the clear winners. They have delivered the highest median returns across most time periods.

    But the real test for an active fund is whether it can outperform the relevant index.

    Despite their impressive returns, Mid Cap active MFs have consistently struggled to beat their benchmark, the Nifty Midcap 150, over longer time periods. The median active Mid Cap fund has actually underperformed the index.

    It is Value and Flexi Cap funds, that delivered positive alpha over their benchmark, the Nifty 500. Small Cap funds stand out over longer periods, generating around 2.8% alpha over their benchmark.

    One consistent pattern emerges across categories: alpha declines as the investment horizon lengthens. As markets mature and inefficiencies reduce over time, consistently beating the benchmark becomes more difficult, and it is the rare fund manager that pulls it off.

    In which categories are you more likely to pick a winning fund?

    A category may produce only a few exceptional funds. So we also looked at the percentage of funds that beat their benchmark.

    Basically, how easy is it to choose a winning fund in the category?

    Only about 35% of active Mid Cap funds have outperformed their benchmark over ten years. In contrast, nearly 75% of active Value funds and 92% of active Small Cap funds have outperformed their benchmarks.

    This means that choosing a winning value MF is a lot easier than choosing a winning Mid Cap fund.

    Small and Flexi Cap funds also show a higher share of alpha generators, making the case for active management in these categories. Data suggest that active management adds the most value in terms of returns in the Small Cap, Value, and Flexi Cap categories. 

    This analysis includes only currently active mutual funds and excludes funds that have been closed or merged. As a result, it may be subject to survivorship bias.

    Beyond returns: The Trendlyne checklist

    Two funds with similar returns can differ significantly in consistency, downside protection, portfolio quality and risk taken. So we also compared funds using the Trendlyne Checklist, which evaluates them across Performance, Portfolio, Operations and Risk & Reward.

    The Performance section doesn't just measure alpha. It also checks how consistently a fund has delivered across different market cycles, including periods of market stress. The best performers may not always be the best funds. 

    Small Cap funds may lead on returns, but they score lower on the Performance Checklist due to less consistent performance across market cycles and weaker downside protection. Lower operational and risk-reward scores also drag down their overall Checklist ranking.

    Value MFs emerge as the strong all-round category.

    Their focus on reasonably priced companies, lower drawdowns, diversified portfolios and generally lower portfolio churn helps them score well across both the Performance and Risk & Reward sections. The volatility data supports this (the lower the better in the chart).

    Small Cap funds exhibit the highest standard deviation across timeframes, reflecting their higher risk, while Large Cap and Value funds maintain significantly lower volatility. For investors preferring consistency over maximum returns, that trade-off becomes an important consideration.

    The highest-rated mutual funds across categories

    We also identified the highest Checklist-scoring fund in each category.

    These may not be the highest-returning funds. Instead, they are funds that combine strong performance with disciplined portfolio management, reasonable costs, liquidity, operational quality, risk management and a proven track record relative to peers.

    Interestingly, no single asset management company dominates the rankings.

    Among the standout names: Invesco India Large Cap Fund tops the Large Cap category. DSP Value Fund leads among Value funds. Parag Parikh Flexi Cap Fund continues to rank highest in the Flexi Cap category.

    As an MF investor, it's worth keeping in mind: performance is not one number. The strongest long-term choices combine consistent performance, disciplined risk management and the ability to outperform across cycles.

    You can explore all MFs here.

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    The Baseline
    07 Jul 2026

    India's EV market grows beyond the early winners

    By Anagh Keremutt

    If you've been following the news lately, electric vehicles (EVs) seem to be everywhere. Delhi's proposed EV policy, which offers financial incentives to switch to EVs, revived the debate around electrification. Worries over the impact of ethanol-blended petrol on traditional ICE engines have had many prospective buyers taking another look at EVs.

    India registered more than 25 lakh electric vehicles in FY26, taking overall EV penetration to 8.5% from 7.7% a year earlier. EV penetration in passenger vehicles rose to 4.4% from 2.5%, while electric goods vehicle registrations surged 172%.

    With more EV models to choose from, buyers are comparing driving range, ownership costs and after-sales service. Businesses are expanding their electric fleets after finding that lower running costs can offset the higher purchase cost.

    Harshvardhan Sharma, auto tech and innovation expert at Nomura Research, said, "It will not be a zero-sum game on pricing. Companies are trying to stand out by offering better value, not just lower prices."

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at how EV adoption is rising across different segments, why buyer preferences are changing and how businesses are reshaping the market.

    Wider choice, reliable after-sales service drive competition

    A good driving range and fast charging no longer suffice for buyers considering an EV. They want an affordable car that's reliable to own, and backed by dependable after-sales support.

    India's growing appetite for SUVs worked in Mahindra's favour, in the EV segment. The BE 6 and XEV 9e helped lift its share in the passenger EV market by over 13 percentage points to 21.4% as buyers responded to purpose-built electric SUVs with longer driving range, faster charging and premium features. 

    MG tackled one of the biggest hurdles to buying an EV: the upfront price. Its Battery-as-a-Service model lets buyers pay a monthly subscription for the battery instead of purchasing it upfront.

    While retaining its top position, Tata Motors saw its share of the passenger EV market fall by over 14 percentage points to just under 39%. Complaints around Tata's after-sales service have become a recurring topic across owner forums and social media.

    A Reddit user recently called his Tata Nexon EV ownership a "nightmare", alleging repeated battery issues, long service delays and poor workshop support. New EV buyers seem to have decided that the hassle is not worth it, even if it means paying a little more elsewhere.

    In two-wheelers, established manufacturers have chipped away the early lead held by newer EV-first brands. "Once legacy players enter, early movers start losing market share. That’s always baked into the industry," said VG Ramakrishnan, Managing Partner at Avanteum Advisors LLP.

    TVS Motor and Bajaj Auto leveraged dealer and service networks they had spent decades building, giving buyers confidence that issues could be raised and addressed easily. Hero MotoCorp also broadened its Vida portfolio, giving buyers another established brand to consider.

    Ather Energy, a rarity in the industry as a successful newcomer, widened its appeal with the family-focused Rizta instead of relying on premium urban commuters. The model has helped the company tap into the family scooter segment. It also expanded its retail and service network, making its scooters easier to buy and service.

    Ola Electric struggled to keep pace with its own expansion. Customer complaints around servicing, repair delays and spare part availability were followed by a fall of over 18 percentage points in its market share to 11.5%.

    Promise of cost savings drive surging commercial EV adoption

    Fuel is one of the largest operating costs for businesses that keep vehicles on the road all day. Lower fuel and maintenance costs help operators recover the higher purchase cost over time. Electric goods vehicle registrations grew 172% in FY26, while EV penetration more than doubled to 1.4%.

    Unlike passenger vehicles, most commercial fleets run fixed routes and return to the same depot every day, allowing operators to charge vehicles overnight. Last-mile delivery fleets travel relatively shorter distances with predictable schedules, making battery range less of a limitation than it is for someone driving between cities. The government's PM E-DRIVE scheme has also expanded incentives for electric trucks and buses, making the switch more affordable.

    BigBasket estimates its transition to EVs has been brought forward by six to nine months as delivery partners look to reduce fuel cost volatility and improve earnings. Nearly half of its active last-mile fleet is already electric, and aims to reach 70% over the next 12 to 24 months.

    Flipkart's EV Assist platform helps delivery partners access EV rentals, financing, charging and servicing through a single platform. The company estimates riders can reduce fuel costs by 70-80%, improving their earnings by another 15-20%.

    Passenger and cargo three-wheelers remain India's most electrified vehicle segments, with EV penetration reaching 63% and 52%, respectively, in FY26. For many drivers, electric three-wheelers have moved from being an alternative to becoming the default choice.

    Mahindra Last Mile Mobility retained its leadership in passenger electric three-wheelers, while Bajaj Auto and YC Electric remained among the biggest players. Piaggio Vehicles recently partnered with RiseWise Capital to offer 100% financing on replacement batteries after three to four years of ownership, helping drivers avoid a large one-time battery replacement expense.

    Commercial EV makers respond to rising demand

    Automakers are responding to rising fleet demand with more electric buses and trucks. Switch Mobility (Ashok Leyland), PMI Electro Mobility, JBM Auto and Olectra Greentech each held about 20% market share in FY26.

    Montra Electric's lead in the electric truck market is under pressure as Energy In Motion and Sany Heavy Industries rapidly gain market share. The recent entry of Olectra and Tata Motors is making the segment even more competitive.

    Switch Mobility recently won India's largest order for 350 refrigerated electric trucks from transportation company Celcius Logistics. Ashok Leyland has started delivering 55-tonne electric trucks to ASAT Logistics for cement transportation. Tata Motors also secured more than 3,400 electric commercial vehicle orders, including nearly 900 electric trucks and about 500 buses. The orders came from companies across e-commerce, FMCG, mining, steel and airport operations.

    Subsidies helped kickstart India's EV market, but the next growth phase will be driven by companies that solve practical ownership challenges. Buyers want wider choice, better features and reliable after-sales support, while businesses are looking for lower operating costs. The companies that address these expectations will be the winners.

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    The Baseline
    03 Jul 2026
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 3, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 3, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Ashok Leyland:

    This commercial vehicle manufacturer surged 3% on July 1 after reporting a 10% YoY rise in Q1 sales, driven by strong demand for medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCVs) and light commercial vehicles (LCVs). Bus sales, however, declined 30%. Forecaster expects Q1 revenue to rise 4% to Rs 9,108 crore, as geopolitical tensions in West Asia weigh on demand.

    Management believes the medium-term outlook remains favourable despite current headwinds. MD & CEO Shenu Agarwal said GST rationalisation reduced truck prices by up to 10% and “acted as a trigger for the replacement of aged fleets.” With the average truck in India over ten years old, replacement demand is a key growth driver. The company has also signed an MoU with the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways to accelerate the scrappage of ageing vehicles in Delhi-NCR. Under the scheme, buyers receive an 8% discount on eligible trucks and buses, along with government tax waivers.

    Ashok Leyland continues to strengthen its leadership in buses, where it holds a 34% market share. Its electric bus subsidiary turned profitable in FY26, generating over Rs 100 crore in profit and easing concerns over EV-related cash burn. The company has also announced a greenfield battery pack plant near Chennai to deepen localisation and support its growing EV business.

    Exports contribute around 10% of revenue and remain an important growth avenue. The company has partnered with Indonesia's state-owned PT Pindad to co-develop electric buses and defence vehicles. It is also setting up an assembly facility in Saudi Arabia after utilisation at its UAE plant exceeded its annual capacity of 6,000 units. CFO K M Balaji said, “We expect sales of around 7,000–8,000 vehicles this year (in the Middle East), which is around 40% higher demand than our current capacity.”

    ICICI Direct reiterates its 'Hold' rating, citing commodity inflation and higher diesel prices as near-term risks. However, the brokerage remains optimistic on the company's long-term prospects, supported by replacement demand, rising exports, and steady progress in electric vehicles.

    2. Oberoi Realty:

    This realty company’s stock climbed over 10% in the past week following its entry into the Delhi-NCR market. The luxury developer is betting big with a Rs 6,000 crore total investment in its debut Gurugram project, 'Three Sixty North'. The first phase features 832 units spread across 6 towers. CMD Vikas Oberoi is confident that their premium brand will thrive in the north, estimating the total revenue potential across both phases at Rs 16,000 crore.

    Even as West Asia conflicts and AI-driven tech uncertainties cooled down some markets, urban real estate proved incredibly resilient, with Mumbai property registrations hitting a 14-year high in June. Oberoi Realty capitalized heavily on this momentum by leveraging its presence across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), which saw rock-solid, sustained demand for ultra-luxury homes priced between Rs 12 crore and Rs 60 crore in prime markets like Andheri, Worli, and South Mumbai. The stock features in a screener of companies with relative outperformance compared to the industry over the past year.

    Backed by rising pre-sales, Oberoi's FY26 net profit grew 9.6% YoY to Rs 2,507.4 crore. However, project delays caused it to miss Trendlyne's Forecaster estimates for net profit and revenue by 6.2% and 7.5%, respectively. Even with industry-wide construction costs now inflating by 2–3%, the management remains confident it can safeguard its profit margins using strategic pricing and built-in budget cushions.

    The company’s rental business turned into a cash cow as lease rentals leaped 36% to Rs 1,191 crore in FY26. Meanwhile, occupancy at its Sky City Mall hit 72% in Q1FY27, and management expects it to reach 100% by the end of the fiscal year. To keep the momentum going, Oberoi has packed its FY27 calendar with four launches in the first half of the year and three more in the second half.

    ICICI Direct maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 2,080. The brokerage pointed out that Oberoi is sitting on roughly Rs 15,000 crore worth of inventory across seven active residential projects. Moving forward, analysts note that keeping this massive launch pipeline on schedule and securing new land deals will be the most critical milestones to watch.

    3. Va Tech Wabag:

    Thiswater treatment company rose 3.7% on July 1 afterwinning an order worth up to Rs 600 crore from the City of Vienna. Under the project, WABAG will expand the water supply facility that helps provide drinking water to the city.

    In June, WABAG’s stock surged 31.5% as the company entered the UAE and Kuwait markets. Itwon a contract worth up to Rs 600 crore to build a sewage treatment plant in the UAE andsecured an order worth over Rs 1,000 crore for a desalination plant in Kuwait. These wins add to its strong pipeline of over Rs 17,200 crore. CFO Skandaprasad Seetharamansaid, “Our order book is over 4x annual revenue.”

    ForFY26, WABAG beatForecaster estimates, with revenue rising 21% and net profit growing 25.5%. Management expects to sustain 15-20% annual revenue growth and a 13-15% operating margin over the medium term.

    WABAG is also expanding beyond city water projects into high-margin industrial water projects via its "Future Energy" division. The company sees a $4-6 billion opportunity across sectors such as semiconductors, solar cells, data centres, green hydrogen, and AI infrastructure. CMD Rajiv Mittalsaid, “These are five new sectors which we did not have a few years back, that are suddenly in focus.” These industries require specialized, ultra-pure water systems, which offer better profit margins than regular water treatment contracts.

    Hiring skilled talent remains achallenge as WABAG expands globally. Since the industry has few large companies to hire from, the company recruits and trains 200 engineers every year for 18 months. Retaining this technical expertise is crucial for future project execution.

    YES Securitiesmaintains its ‘Buy’ rating on WABAG, expecting Q1FY27 orders to cross Rs 2,000 crore, backed by recent contract wins. The brokerage also forecasts over 20% YoY revenue growth as it executes key projects in Saudi Arabia and India. 

    4. Maruti Suzuki:

    Thiscar company rose 4.5% over the past week after Jefferiesupgraded its stock to 'Buy' and raised its target price to Rs 16,500. The brokerage expects improving passenger vehicle demand, lower commodity costs and expanding production capacity to support earnings. It also raised its FY27-FY29 earnings estimates by 2-4%.

    Maruti widened its lead in India's passenger vehicle market after domestic wholesales rose 24% YoY to around 1.5 lakh vehicles in June, aided by recent capacity expansion. Rural markets accounted for 53% of June sales, while CNG models made up 42% of total sales. Rahul Bharti, Senior Executive Officer, Corporate Affairs,said, "All cylinders are firing. Be it rural or urban, we are seeing strong growth across all markets."

    Management is looking to build on its 39% share of India's passenger vehicle market. Sales & Marketing head Partho Banerjeesaid, "We expect to gain at least two percentage points in both wholesale and retail during Q1FY27." He added that tax relief measures should improve affordability for smaller cars, while SUVs and CNG models continue to support growth.

    The company expects vehicle sales togrow by more than 10% this year. With around 1.9 lakh pending customer orders entering FY27, Maruti is expanding capacity to meet demand. Two new production lines will increase annual production capacity by 19% to 31 lakh vehicles.

    Maruti accounted for 49% of India's passenger vehicle exports in FY26. Management said shipments to the Middle East continued through alternative routes despite geopolitical disruptions, while the company's presence across more than 100 countries helped limit the impact on exports. However, it cautioned that tensions in West Asia and an uneven monsoon could weigh on the broader auto industry.

    5. KPIT Technologies: 

    This automotive software provider’s stock plunged to a 52-week low last week after it cut its Q1FY27 guidance. KPIT expects revenue to decline 1% YoY as European automakers reduce engineering and software spending, delaying vehicle development programs.

    The slowdown stems from profit warnings and weaker demand across Europe's auto industry. Several customers postponed or slowed software and R&D projects, delaying revenue recognition during the quarter. Management said the disruption emerged only in the final weeks of Q1, leaving little time to replace lost business or reduce costs. As a result, operating margins are expected to contract more sharply than revenue. The company is now focusing on AI-led productivity improvements and tighter cost controls to restore profitability.

    Management expects a strong recovery in H2FY27 despite current weakness. Growth remains robust in the products & solutions and trucks & off-highway segments, while the US, Korea, and India markets continue to outperform Europe. Demand for autonomous driving, connected vehicles, predictive maintenance, and full-vehicle engineering remains healthy, supported by a strong order book. New client wins in the passenger vehicle segment are also expected to drive growth.

    Co-founder, MD & CEO Kishor Patil said, “We expect 30% revenue growth in products & solutions in FY27, driven by wallet share improvement in the current account and new client wins.” He reiterated EBITDA margin guidance of up to 21.2%, supported by a richer product mix and AI-driven productivity gains, even as the company continues to invest in AI capabilities, product development, and new markets.

    Following the guidance cut, JP Morgan downgraded the stock to 'Underweight' from 'Neutral' and lowered its target price to Rs 550. The brokerage attributed the slowdown to budget cuts at key customers, including BMW and Volkswagen. BMW alone contributes around 12% of KPIT's revenue.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    02 Jul 2026

    Q1FY27: What's driving the strongest growth forecasts?

    By Anagh Keremutt

    Thousands of kilometres away, negotiators in Doha are indirectly deciding whether Indian companies pay more for crude, freight and raw materials. As the US and Iran prepare to resume peace talks, markets are hoping the Strait of Hormuz remains open and oil prices stay under control. For corporate India, those negotiations matter because they influence everything from fuel and freight costs to the price of key raw materials.

    These rising costs is one reason analysts expect Q1FY27 earnings to be uneven.

    Antu Eapen Thomas, Senior Research Analyst at Geojit Investments, said, "We view Q1FY27 earnings challenges as a supply-side shock rather than a demand collapse." He believes that earnings momentum is likely to regain traction in the second half of FY27 as the economy stabilises.

    While higher input costs and supply disruptions will weigh on many companies, some have business-specific drivers working in their favour. Realty companies will start booking revenue from earlier home sales as projects near completion. In other sectors, capacity expansions, new business segments and favourable industry trends are expected to support growth.

    Despite a challenging quarter, analysts expect these companies to buck the trend. In this edition of Chart of the Week, we identify the Nifty500 companies that analysts expect to deliver the strongest revenue and earnings growth in Q1FY27.

    Early home sales begin paying off for realty companies

    Developers record revenue only after construction reaches certain stages and home buyers take possession. Several real estate companies are now entering that phase, helping explain some of the strongest Q1FY27 growth estimates.

    Prestige Estates' record sales of Rs 30,025 crore in FY26 should begin flowing into revenue this year. With more than 20 residential projects set for completion, Forecaster expects Q1FY27 revenue to more than double, while analysts see EPS rising 55%.

    Prestige's Chairman and Managing Director Irfan Razack echoed that outlook, saying, "We expect residential revenue recognition of around Rs 12,000-13,000 crore in FY27."

    Signature Global's Q1FY27 revenue is expected to grow more than 80% as projects move close to completion, with management expecting revenue recognition to almost double this year. EPS is projected to rise 28.5%. Premium launches such as Cloverdale SPR were priced 12-12.5% higher than the company's earlier Titanium project, giving it room to earn more from each home sold.

    Companies reap the rewards of earlier investments

    The groundwork for rapid earnings growth is often laid years before it shows up in quarterly results. Lloyds Metals, Waaree Energies, Netweb Technologies and Neuland Laboratories are now turning those investments into higher production, stronger execution and faster earnings.

    Pellets are set to become Lloyds Metals' biggest growth driver. The mining company's pellet plant reached full capacity within four months of commissioning, with production expected to rise 156% to around 8 million tonnes in FY27. Forecaster expects Q1FY27 revenue to climb 6.2x, while analysts see EPS jumping more than eight-fold. 

    The new slurry pipeline is also reducing transport costs. Management has guided for savings of Rs 500-600 per tonne, with Managing Director Rajesh Gupta saying, "The slurry pipeline is already delivering cost savings and operational stability."

    Waaree Energies expanded its manufacturing capacity by 73% over the past year to around 26 GW, allowing it to execute more of its Rs 53,000 crore order book. The electrical equipment maker also expects utilisation of its new manufacturing lines to improve as production ramps up. Forecaster expects both Q1FY27 revenue and EPS to almost double. Operating margin expanded 350 basis points (bps) to 22.3% in FY26, showing how additional capacity is already improving profitability.

    AI has become Netweb's biggest business, with the segment growing 460% in FY26 and accounting for 43% of total revenue. Forecaster expects the software provider's revenue to jump 2.7x, while EPS is projected to more than double. The company also began FY27 with more work on hand than it billed during the whole of FY26.

    Large contract manufacturing projects contributed more than two-thirds of Neuland Laboratories' revenue in Q4FY26. Many of these projects have now moved from development into commercial production, allowing the pharmaceutical company to manufacture and supply larger quantities of medicines. Forecaster expects Q1FY27 revenue to grow 72.2%, while analysts project EPS to surge over five-fold. Managing Director & CEO Saharsh Davuluri said these projects generate significantly higher margins than supplying pharmaceutical ingredients, which is the company's core business.

    Newer business segments power the next leg of growth

    Companies are increasingly relying on newer businesses, products and distribution channels rather than their traditional drivers.

    Online retail platform Eternal has seen quick commerce become its largest consumer business, overtaking food delivery by the value of orders placed in FY26. Management is targeting around 60% annual growth for Blinkit, with Forecaster expecting Q1FY27 revenue to jump 2.8x. Blinkit is also becoming cheaper to scale as customer acquisition costs fall, while more mature markets contribute a larger share of profits. Analysts project EPS to rise more than eight-fold.

    Finance company Poonawalla Fincorp's revenue is expected to rise nearly 75% in Q1FY27, with EPS nearly tripling. The company spent the past year expanding into products such as gold loans, education loans and loans against property, taking its loan book up 69.4% in FY26. It also tightened its lending standards, reducing the share of defaulted loans by 40 bps to 1.44%. Managing Director & CEO Arvind Kapil said, "We've moved past the lifting of initial business setup and now firmly in the phase of harvesting operating leverage."

    Forecaster expects Zydus Wellness' Q1FY27 revenue to grow 75.4%, while analysts see EPS rising 7%. The packaged foods company said products such as Sugar Free, Everyuth and Nutralite continued to deliver double-digit growth. Zydus also expects easing input costs and continued expansion in quick commerce and e-commerce to support growth over the coming quarters.

    MCX's revenue is expected to nearly triple in Q1FY27, alongside a four-fold jump in EPS. Average daily turnover surged 2.5x in FY26, while the capital markets company expanded into new products such as electricity futures, bringing power producers and large industrial users to the platform. Managing Director & CEO Praveena Rai said, "The growth we are witnessing is structural, along with taking advantage of cyclical tailwinds." As trading volumes rise, revenue is expected to grow much faster than costs, supporting profitability.

    The June quarter will reveal whether these companies meet analysts' expectations. But the business developments behind those forecasts are likely to shape their growth well beyond a single quarter.

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    The Baseline
    02 Jul 2026
    New threats: Risks for India are shifting from global to domestic

    New threats: Risks for India are shifting from global to domestic

    Across Mumbai in early June, people were watching the skies. The monsoon had arrived in the south, and Bangaloreans were posting annoying photos of themselves drinking hot filter coffee in their balconies, as it rained outside. The monsoon finally reached Mumbai two weeks late.

    The rains stalled again over central India, leaving much of the north still thirsty. June has ended with a 40% monsoon deficit (with north India at a 50% deficit and the south at 27%). It  is the fifth driest June month since 1901. 

    The main cause of the weak monsoon was the onset of the El Niño weather pattern on June 11 over the Pacific Ocean. While market headlines have focused on the US-Iran ceasefire and RBI's approach over interest rates, it is the disappearing monsoon that will have a much bigger impact on the Indian economy in the coming months. The IMD is already predicting that July will also see a monsoon deficit. 

    Will the stock market mood weaken?

    Many institutions including the IMF, expect India to be the fastest growing economy this year, with Bank of America predicting India's GDP growth at 7% in 2026. Former RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is talking about the possibility of GDP growth "touching" 8%.

    But talk is cheap. There are signs that the stock market is not as optimistic as the bureaucrats. Brent crude has now fallen more than 40% from its 2026 peak of over $120 a barrel. Under normal circumstances, one would expect this massive supply-side relief to drive a bull run in equities. Instead, the Nifty has risen by just 1.9% over the past month, and its year change remains negative. The market senses that while supply-side chokepoints are easing, demand destruction may be around the corner. 

    When "clear skies" mean bad news

    For some sectors in particular, "clear skies" spell trouble. The CEOs of FMCG, two wheeler and agrochemical businesses will be staying up late at night, trying to figure out ways to boost sales and margins even as rural customers pull back. 

    Entry-level, commuter motorcycles (100-110cc) are mainly purchased by rural and semi-urban buyers. In this segment, purchasing power is closely linked to water reservoir levels and agricultural yields. The biggest hit is likely going to be taken by Hero Motocorp, whose mass-market Splendor bike is a rural favourite. Less impacted are two wheeler companies that have diversified into premium categories and exports, like Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor.

    In India, FMCG players get around 30-45% of their sales from rural India. When incomes get squeezed, rural customers quickly move from branded products like Ariel to cheap local options. Hindustan Unilever management had already mentioned a visible rural squeeze in its FY26 results. The missing monsoon means that this squeeze may get even tighter in the June and September quarters. Dabur India's deep rural portfolio of hair oils and herbal healthcare could also take a hit. 

    Agrochem player UPL's domestic business is tightly aligned with monsoon health and a good sowing season. The kharif crop sowing season, which starts in June, has already been delayed, thanks to the 40% monsoon deficit. Crop protection companies like Dhanuka Agritech may also see their sales weaken, while export oriented players like PI Industries are relatively insulated.

    Specific players in other industries also have high agricultural exposure. Tyre company Balkrishna Industries for example, has 60% of its segment sales coming from agriculture. It specializes in the "Off Highway" tire built for bumpy rural roads and farm machinery. Nearly 73% of these sales come from the replacement tire market, which is easy for farmers to postpone. In the recent earnings call, the company's management was clear that rural growth was "the key to maintaining momentum" in both the tractor and two-wheeler segments.

    No rain? No worries: The K-shaped economy strikes again

    India, like other markets, is increasingly in a K-shaped consumption pattern. Growth is being driven heavily by premium consumers in high-end real estate, luxury cars, urban consumer brands and electronics. Sectors seeing massive government capex are also benefiting.  These stocks are relatively insulated from monsoon trends.

    A player gaining in the consumer space for example, is Trent.  The parent company of the Westside and Zudio brands, it has managed to bypass general consumption slowdowns by expanding its store footprint beyond Tier 1 and capturing the "urban middle", consumers with just enough purchasing power. 

    Another somewhat well protected set of companies are the ones being funded by government capex. The Indian government is spending heavily on modernizing India's railways and roads, and on defence capabilities. Companies in these spaces are winning projects with large, multi-year budgets. 

    BEML for example, is a key player in the railway and metro expansion effort. New metro lines in Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities, as well as spending on Vande Bharat trains, are giving BEML a revenue boost as it moves away from mining projects. 

    Kiroloskar Oil Engines, which is in power generation, is indirectly benefiting from the government spend on infrastructure, since these projects need large-scale power backup and industrial machinery. And Bharat Electronics is winning government defence contracts for radar and missile systems, as well as defence electronics.

    Then there is the defensive play with the pharma sector. Export-oriented players here continue to be the natural, traditional hedge to a weaker domestic economy. Both Sun Pharma and Cipla, with their strong pipelines in the US generic and specialty markets, are drawing investor bets. 

    The market has changed, but it has not turned around. As the monsoon news sinks in, domestic-oriented, mass market sectors will take hits. Investors will have to be selective.

    Let's hope July sees enough rain and thunder to draw us out into our balconies, with a cup of chai or coffee in our hands. 

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