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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    01 Oct 2026, 05:34PM
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - October 1, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - October 1, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Azad Engineering:

    This precision components maker rose 7% on September 29 after launching two new manufacturing plants for GE Vernova’s Gas Power business. Spread across 15,200 square metres, the plants will make specialised parts used in power-generation equipment, including components for gas turbines. Azad now operates three dedicated facilities for GE Vernova, more than for any other customer.

    The expansion deepens Azad's relationship with GE Vernova. In January 2025, Azad signed a six-year, $112 million deal to supply airfoils for advanced gas turbines, followed by a $53.5 million Steam Power contract in May 2025. 

    Whole-Time Director Vishnu Malpani explained the strategic value of dedicated plants: “Once a global marquee OEM integrates a dedicated qualified facility into their primary supply chain, shifting that business carries a huge switching cost.” Malpani highlights that this secures multi-year revenue and volume visibility. However, Azad relies heavily on a few key buyers. Its top customer drives 19% of FY26 revenue, while its six largest clients generate nearly half of all sales.

    Azad boasts an order book exceeding Rs 6,500 crore, nearly 11 times its FY26 revenue. However, management notes that converting this backlog into sales takes time because new machines and components require customer approval before full-scale production. The company is targeting annual revenue growth of over 25% and EBITDA margins of 32-35%. Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects FY27 revenue to grow 33.5%.

    The company is moving beyond individual components into manufacturing complete engines. In July, Azad delivered India’s first indigenous expendable turbojet engine to DRDO, handling the manufacturing, assembly, and integration.

    ICICI Securities upgrades Azad to ‘Buy’ from ‘Add’ with a target price of Rs 3,200, implying an 8% upside. The brokerage expects the transition from capacity building to order execution to fuel a 33% revenue CAGR over FY27-29, while net profits nearly triple. However, delays in customer approvals could slow the conversion of Azad’s large order book into revenue.

    2. Great Eastern Shipping Company:

    This shipping company rose 3% over the past week after Nomura initiated coverage with a “Buy” rating and a target price of Rs 1,965, implying about 28% upside. The brokerage is positive on the company’s countercyclical approach to fleet management, which involves buying ships when prices fall, selling into strength, maintaining low leverage and returning surplus cash. At the end of August, the firm announced a Rs 900 crore share buyback programme at a maximum price of Rs 1,530 per share.

    The company transports various commodities with its fleet of crude and product tankers, gas carriers, dry bulk vessels, offshore vessels and jack-up rigs. Earnings are currently benefiting from strong tanker rates and GE Shipping’s high exposure to the spot market. Forecaster expects revenue to grow 35% in FY27, with net profit growth of over 30%. 

    Management said disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz forced oil cargoes onto longer routes, sharply increasing demand. CFO G Shivakumar said, “Instead of importing from the Middle East, Asian countries had to source oil from the US or Brazil.” He added that this is a much longer voyage and therefore requires more ships.

    GE Shipping has over Rs 8,000 crore in cash as of the June quarter and is taking a cautious approach to fleet expansion as vessel prices and freight rates have risen. The firm is therefore prioritising replacing older vessels with younger, more fuel-efficient ships while broadly maintaining capacity. In July, it replaced an older tanker with a younger vessel. Management says newer ships can use 20-25% less fuel than vessels built before 2013, improving operating economics.

    Nomura expects the fleet to grow from around 40 vessels currently to 62 by FY29, assuming a meaningful decline in tanker rates. The main risk is that the current freight environment has already triggered a large wave of new vessel orders. Management expects oversupply risk to increase as these ships are delivered, while a normalisation in trade routes could also push freight rates lower.

    3. Dr Reddy’s Laboratories: 

    This pharmaceutical giant's stock price jumped 2.5% on September 29 after Citigroup upgraded it to a ‘Buy’ rating from ‘Sell’. The brokerage also raised its target price to Rs 1,450, implying a 20.2% upside. Citigroup turned bullish on the drugmaker, citing clear earnings visibility, strong sales in non-US markets, and margin growth potential.

    Analysts believe the company will navigate market competition using its diverse product lineup and massive global presence. Recent developments suggest the drugmaker has crossed its major growth hurdles. Crucially, the company has applied for US FDA approval for an Abatacept biosimilar, a key arthritis treatment with a global market size of $3.1 bn in 2025. The company expects final regulatory approval for the drug by the end of 2026.

    Dr Reddy’s EBITDA margin crashed by 14.2 percentage points YoY in Q1FY27. Semaglutide-related setbacks, including a Rs 240 crore provision, lost production incentives, and lower sales, caused this steep drop. Additionally, soaring freight and raw material costs stemming from the West Asia conflict squeezed profits. However, the brokerage expects the upcoming resumption of Semaglutide supplies in Canada to revive both revenue and margins.

    Together, the upcoming Abatacept launch and resumed Semaglutide supplies will generate an extra $350-400 million in revenue through FY29. This cash injection will help the company offset the revenue cliff for its generic cancer drug, Revlimid, following the expiry of volume caps this January.

    Citi predicts Dr Reddy’s operating margins will rebound to 20% by FY29, up from an estimated 14% in FY27. The Abatacept launch and Semaglutide recovery alone will drive a 450 basis point margin expansion. Citi expects North American revenues (27% of topline) to bottom out in FY27, and highlights the company's execution in the non-US markets (62% of revenue). Accelerating growth across India, Europe, and emerging markets is shifting the business toward more sustainable, long-term earnings streams.

    Management remains confident about a recovery in H2FY27. CEO Erez Israeli said, “The strength of our base business and ongoing productivity initiatives will continue to support double-digit base business growth.”

    4. Fortis Healthcare:

    The stock of this healthcare facilities company declined 5.3% on September 30 after the Supreme Court raised concerns over steep medicine markups in private hospitals. The court questioned why essential drug prices cannot be capped at a 16% margin over the price-to-retailer (PTR) and criticized hospitals requiring inpatients to buy medicines exclusively from in-house pharmacies. While the court held off on immediate regulatory action to give the government time for consultations, the next hearing is scheduled for October 12, 2026.

    Medicine and consumable sales generate about 12 to 15% of Fortis’ overall revenue. Because Fortis is structurally a clinically focused hospital operator, unlike peers like Apollo Hospitals with vast retail pharmacy footprints, potential regulatory price caps are expected to have a limited overall impact on the company.

    Compounding its legal troubles, the Delhi High Court ordered a forensic audit into Fortis following Daiichi Sankyo’s push to enforce a Rs 3,500 crore arbitral award against former promoters Malvinder and Shivinder Singh. 

    Fortis management denied involvement in the disputed stake sale and ownership change, noting the transactions predated IHH’s control. It said the company complied with all applicable laws and that the forensic audit would not affect its brand, operations or patient inflow.

    Despite legal headwinds, Fortis’ core operations remained strong, with the hospital segment serving as the primary growth driver and contributing around 85% of consolidated revenue. Looking ahead, Fortis plans to add about 2,000 brownfield beds over the next four years, including 500 beds in FY27. Motilal Oswal highlighted bed expansion and improving occupancy rates as key drivers of volume-led growth and reaffirmed its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 1,130.

    5. Petronet LNG:

    This oil marketing & distribution company rose 1.2% on Monday after Motilal Oswal reiterated its “Buy” rating with a target price of Rs 362, implying an upside of 26.8%. While the rating was unchanged, the fresh update pushed back on three key worries behind Petronet LNG’s sharp fall over the past seven months: costly LNG, Qatar supply disruption and a possible fee cut at Dahej, its main LNG processing plant in Gujarat. 

    The biggest near-term problem is expensive LNG. Costs for users such as fertiliser makers, factories and city-gas companies have more than doubled, making buyers reluctant to lock into fresh long-term contracts. Motilal expects demand, and in turn Petronet’s terminal usage, to pick up once prices become more affordable.

    There are some early signs of demand picking up, with LNG shipments from Deepak Fertilisers and ExxonMobil coming in. The company is also adding capacity. It spent Rs 560 crore to raise Dahej’s annual capacity by 29%, at roughly one-tenth the cost of building a similar new terminal.

    Motilal Oswal also says the risk of the Dahej facility charging lower fees may be overstated. About half the terminal’s business is tied to long-term contracts, and management says the fee on the renewed Qatar deal, covering 7.5 million tonnes a year, will not fall below current levels. The rest is locked in through 2035 with agreed fees and minimum usage commitments.

    Analysts see the company’s Kochi facility emerging as a new growth driver. It ran at just about 24% of capacity in Q1FY27, largely because it has not been connected to a wider pipeline network. That should change once the Kochi-Mangalore-Bangalore pipeline links it to the national gas grid. Motilal expects the pipeline to start by March 2027, while management sees utilisation rising to around 40% over the next two to three years.

    LNG supplies from Qatar remain the main near-term risk, but Petronet is replacing much of the missing supply from elsewhere. Vice President of Finance & Accounts Debabrata Satpathy said, “Even if that volume is not available from the Gulf region, more than two-thirds of that is being compensated from other parts of the world.” He added that once Gulf supplies return, capacity utilisation should “improve quite a bit.”

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    30 Sep 2026, 06:00PM
    Analysts pick their winners: Five stocks expected to shine in Q2 results

    Analysts pick their winners: Five stocks expected to shine in Q2 results

    September hasn't exactly been a month investors will remember fondly. The Nifty 50 is down nearly 13% this year and is heading for its eighth straight weekly loss. With just one quarter left, the index is staring at its first yearly loss since 2015.

    One of the biggest headaches? Oil. Rising crude prices are adding to inflation worries and squeezing company margins, putting more pressure on earnings and investor sentiment. For once, we'll spare you a certain name from Washington.

    As Q2FY27 earnings season begins, HDFC Securities expects earnings growth to cool to 13-14%, from 18-19% in the previous quarter. But Unmesh Sharma, Head of Institutional Equities at HDFC Securities, says growth remains strong despite the slowdown.

    Sharma is also upbeat on mid- and small-cap stocks, where he sees several emerging investment themes.

    The market may be in a bad mood, but some companies, thankfully, are exceptions.

    In this week's newsletter, we look at five companies that analysts expect to post strong revenue and earnings growth, despite the broader market headwinds. 

    The Q2 frontrunners: Analysts pick their top five

    As we head into the Q2FY27 results, we shortlist five stocks from the Nifty 500 that are predicted to post strong YoY and QoQ revenue and net profit growth, according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster. These companies have already set the bar high with good results in Q1FY27.

    All five stocks in focus, Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), Coforge, APL Apollo Tubes, Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL), and Redington, are from different sectors. 

    These stocks have outpaced the Nifty 500 over the past year and quarter. 

    All five stocks have either ‘Good’ or ‘Medium’ scores across Durability, Valuation and Momentum categories. 

    Iron & steel products, heavy electrical equipment, commodity trading & distribution, IT consulting & software, and capital markets feature in the list.

    Steel product makers are expected to benefit from better pricing and a recovery in construction demand, while heavy electrical equipment makers are likely to benefit from strong demand from the power sector.

    Technology distributors could see continued demand for premium electronics and technology products, while mid-sized IT companies may benefit from large deal wins and AI-led spending.

    MCX turns volatility into a business model

    MCX has been on a roll, more than doubling investors' money in the past year, and the momentum continues. Trendlyne's Forecaster expects Q2 revenue to rise 93% and net profit to more than double YoY.

    The biggest driver is commodity options, led by gold and silver, followed by crude oil and natural gas. 

    MCX's client base has nearly doubled in a year, partly as traders moved away from equity derivatives after SEBI tightened trading rules. 

    Sharp swings in gold and silver prices have also pushed more activity towards commodities. Gold and silver now account for about two-thirds of MCX's daily trading.

    MCX has more than 99% of India's exchange-traded bullion, base metals and energy derivatives market. nd because an exchange can handle higher trading volumes without a similar increase in costs, the additional revenue can translate into a significant increase in profit. 

    Praveena Rai, MD & CEO of MCX, said, "Volatility is not the enemy - unhedged exposure to volatility is."

    MCX is also expanding into coal and minerals, planning to invest up to Rs 200 crore in new trading platforms.

    Coforge buys its way into the AI big league

    It’s been a rough year for Indian IT. 

    TCS, Infosys and Wipro are down about 30% each, but Coforge has gained 17%. Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects Q2 revenue to rise 57% YoY and net profit to rise 74%.

    Part of the growth is coming from Encora, the US-based AI engineering firm that Coforge acquired for $2.35 billion. 

    Q2 is the first full quarter to include Encora, and management expects its highest-ever number of large deals. After the Q1 results, CEO Sudhir Singh said he expected “very robust growth, starting with Q2 itself.”

    Coforge has also taken a different approach to the AI opportunity. While larger IT firms still get a significant share of their business from legacy software maintenance, Coforge has focused more on helping companies modernise their systems for AI. About 86% of its revenue now comes from AI, data and cloud work. The company is also shifting from billing clients for hours worked to charging for the outcomes it delivers.

    A key risk is governance. Advent, Coforge’s largest shareholder, opposed Chairman OP Bhatt’s reappointment. Bhatt later resigned after an internal audit found he had withheld board evaluation findings, sending the stock down nearly 9% intraday on September 9. 

    APL Apollo: Riding the infrastructure recovery

    APL Apollo makes steel tubes used in warehouses, airports, metro projects and solar frames. The stock is up 33% in a year. Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects Q2 revenue to rise 33% YoY and net profit 21%, as construction demand recovers from a relatively weak Q1.

    Sanjay Gupta, Chairman of APL Apollo, said, "We expect demand conditions to improve in the coming quarters on the back of an improved government budget allocation for the infrastructure sector." 

    Q1 was a tough quarter for APL Apollo, with higher steel prices and problems at its UAE plant weighing on the business. However, profits held up because the company was able to pass on higher costs without losing customers. APL Apollo controls about 65% of India's high-quality steel tube market. 

    Demand could get a boost as builders shift towards faster steel structures and solar projects expand. But steel prices remain a concern. When prices rise sharply, dealers often hold back on purchases, as they did in Q1.

    BHEL powers up after years of stalling

    For years, BHEL won large orders but struggled to execute them. That now seems to be changing. The stock is up 79% in a year, while Trendlyne's Forecaster expects Q2 revenue to grow 29% YoY and net profit 72%

    Much of the improvement is coming from faster execution. BHEL is paying suppliers sooner, and the government has allowed it to import key components that were holding up projects. That is helping its factories run at higher capacity and allowing projects to move ahead faster. 

    In Q1, it earned a profit of Rs 377 crore against a loss of Rs 455 crore a year ago.

    BHEL has built over half of India's coal power capacity. Competition is limited in large thermal power tenders. Global players have largely exited coal, while Chinese companies face bidding restrictions in India. At the same time, rising power demand and the need for round-the-clock supply are keeping coal power relevant. 

    K Sadashiv Murthy, CMD of BHEL, said, "The renewed emphasis on energy security, following recent geopolitical disruptions, has reinforced the role of coal-based generation in national planning."

    The key risk is execution. Power projects take years to complete, and rising costs could squeeze BHEL's thin margins.

    Redington rides the premium gadget wave

    When you buy an iPhone or Lenovo laptop from a neighbourhood store, it probably came through Redington. The distributor buys products in bulk, stores them, delivers them to retailers and lets them pay later.

    The stock is up 54% in a year. Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects Q2 revenue to rise 23% YoY and net profit 34%.

    Three trends are helping Redington grow. Indians are spending more on premium smartphones, with iPhones now accounting for nearly a third of its sales. Laptop prices are also rising as a global memory chip shortage pushes up costs. 

    Companies are also spending more on cloud and cybersecurity, where Redington earns better margins than on hardware. 

    However, margins remain thin. Net profit is just 1.4% of revenue, and the company is heavily dependent on Apple, which accounts for nearly a third of sales.

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    The Baseline
    30 Sep 2026, 02:34PM

    IRDAI wants to cut insurance selling costs. Who takes the hit?

    By Anagh Keremutt

    The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI) wants every Indian to have adequate life, health and property insurance by 2047, and every business to have suitable cover.

    To make insurance more affordable, the regulator wants insurers to spend less on selling policies and pass the savings to customers. Its September consultation paper, “Recalibrating Economics of Insurance Distribution,” proposes new limits on commissions and lower limits on insurers’ overall expenses.

    Ajay Seth, Chairman of IRDAI, says, “Mis-selling is arising because upfront sales commissions are too high.” He adds that first-year commissions on new business can be as high as 40-50%, incentivising sellers to focus on making the sale rather than recommending the right product.

    The proposals are not final, but they will reduce what PB Fintech and lenders such as L&T Finance earn from selling insurance. 

    Life insurers could save on commissions, but lower payouts may discourage sellers and hurt sales. Motor insurers may fare better because vehicle owners must still buy third-party cover.

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at who stands to lose and which insurers have more room to adjust.

    Why IRDAI wants to change the model

    When you buy an insurance policy through a distributor, the insurer pays that seller for bringing in the business. For example, PB Fintech’s Policybazaar earned about Rs 18.5 in revenue for every Rs 100 of premium customers paid through its core online insurance business in Q1FY27.

    IRDAI’s concern is that these selling costs are rising much faster than the business they generate. Between FY23 and FY25, commissions and other payments to banks and other corporate agents covered by IRDAI’s life-insurance study jumped 125%, while premiums from the new policies they sold rose only 28%.

    General insurance includes vehicle, health and property cover. Premiums from policies sold through brokers grew 37% during the same period, while their commissions rose 173%. Within this, motor insurance showed a wider gap: premiums rose about 34%, while commissions surged 259%.

    Overall costs have risen too. Private life insurers’ commissions and running expenses increased from 16.5% of premiums in FY21 to 20.2% in FY26.

    IRDAI wants to bring this spending down across the industry. For general insurers, it proposes lowering the limit from 30% of premiums to 25% within two years and 20% within five.

    Life insurers would face a ceiling of 15% within two years and 12.5% within five. Those already below these levels in FY25, such as SBI Life and LIC, would face a stricter five-year ceiling of 10%.

    Commission caps squeeze insurance platforms and lenders

    IRDAI’s proposal dealt a sharp blow to listed insurance distributors. PB Fintech’s insurance-related businessesgenerated about 86% of group revenue in Q1FY27. That helps explain the stock’s 36% plunge on September 24. Turtlemint fell to its lower circuit as it earns nearly all its revenue from insurance distribution.

    The proposed limits cover commissions from both new policies and renewals across life and general insurance. For a new individual health insurance policy, distribution companies would face a standard commission cap of 15% of the premium, compared with the current industry average of 24%, according to Kotak Institutional Equities.

    For individual health-policy renewals, distribution companies would face a commission cap of 5%. Jefferies estimates that current commissions are about 15% for policies covering non-senior citizens. A company earning that rate would lose two-thirds of its renewal fee if the cap takes effect.

    Limits for life insurance vary by policy. For individual term policies paid for over several years, IRDAI proposes capping distribution companies’ commissions at 25% of the first-year premium and 7.5% of later premiums. A term life policy, for instance, pays out if the insured person dies during the period of cover

    Yashish Dahiya, Chairman & Group CEO of PB Fintech, said, “Life insurance should see limited impact, but general insurance revenue could shrink to about one-third to 40% of current levels. We may then need to spend less on marketing, sales and customer support.” The company also said it is still unclear whether the new limits would apply to policies already sold.

    Lenders face a sharper cut in commissions from life insurance sold with loans. For policies paid for in full upfront, IRDAI proposes capping the lender’s commission at 2% of the premium, compared with the current average of 22%.

    L&T Finance, Bajaj Finance and Cholamandalam Investment & Finance, among others, fell sharply amid the sell-off. According to SOIC, L&T Finance earned insurance commissions worth 25.6% of its FY26 pre-tax profit, compared with 17.8% at Poonawalla Fincorp and 16.3% at Cholamandalam.

    Those commissions are income for lenders and distributors, but a cost for insurers. So does a smaller commission bill make insurers the clear winners?

    Lower commissions don’t guarantee bigger profits

    Lower commissions could improve insurers’ margins, but distributors may have less incentive to sell policies, which could hurt sales.

    Krishnan Ramachandran, MD & CEO of Niva Bupa, calls the proposals a “net positive”. He expects lower commissions to help the insurer keep health premiums affordable for longer, supporting demand while improving its own economics. “We are in a comfortable situation to bring our expenses within the proposed 25% limit over the next two years,” he added.

    But the benefit may not be equal across insurers. KG Krishnamoorthy Rao, MD & CEO of Generali Central Insurance, says smaller insurers still have to bear many of the same technology, compliance and staffing costs as larger rivals. That makes the proposed expense limits harder for them to meet as a share of a smaller premium base.

    Demand for motor insurance could hold up even if distributors earn less. Vehicle owners still have to buy third-party cover, which pays for injury or damage caused to others.

    IRDAI proposes zero commission for distribution companies selling this cover with new vehicles. With compulsory cover supporting demand, motor insurers could save on selling costs. ICICI Lombard and Go Digit rose amid the September 24 sell-off on expectations of these savings. 

    For life insurers, greater reliance on banks, agents and other sellers does not always mean higher costs. Some already spend a smaller share of premiums than their peers, which could leave them with less to change under the proposed limits.

    SBI Life, for instance, generated about 85% of its premiums from new individual policies through these sellers in FY26. But it spent just 10.6% of total premiums on commissions and running expenses. 

    HDFC Life and Axis Max Life (majority-owned by Max Financial Services) relied less on these sellers, but spent about 21–25% of premiums on these costs, roughly twice SBI Life’s 10.6%. LIC kept costs low too, at 11.9% of premiums, compared with about 18% at ICICI Prudential Life.

    If these proposals become final rules, investors should look for insurers that keep bringing in more business while reducing expenses as a share of premiums. If distributors sell fewer policies, insurers may need to find customers themselves while staying within the new spending limits.

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    The Baseline
    29 Sep 2026
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - September 29, 2026

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - September 29, 2026

    By Abdullah Shah

    1. Century Plyboards (India):

    Axis Direct initiates coverage on this wood-panel manufacturer with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 820, an upside of 23.3%. Analysts Eesha Shah and Vishal Jagwani expect Century Plyboards’ next expansion phase to drive its revenue target of Rs 12,000 crore by FY30-31. 

    The company is building a new plywood plant in Punjab, investing Rs 1,130 crore in a medium-density fibreboard (MDF) and plywood project in Uttar Pradesh, and phasing development of an Odisha facility. Plywood currently contributes around 54% of its revenue, but the company is reducing its reliance on the segment by expanding newer businesses like MDF. Management anticipates MDF to match its plywood business size within two to three years. They target a 15%+ EBITDA margin for the segment, while analysts project MDF revenue to grow 20% annually over FY27-29.

    Shah and Jagwani predict that new plants and higher factory usage will boost profitability from FY27. Analysts forecast overall revenue, EBITDA, and net profit CAGRs of 17%, 24%, and 35% through FY27-29. The company also aims to increase its plywood market share from around 10% to 15% over the medium term, supported by 12-15% annual volume growth over five years. 

    2. Thangamayil Jewellery:

    BOB Capital Markets upgrades this jewellery retailer to a ‘Buy’ rating from ‘Hold’, with a target price of Rs 6,314, an upside of 21.3%. Analysts Lavita Lasrado and Nistha Pala believe that store expansion will drive the next phase of growth, with Chennai at the centre of the plan. 

    Thangamayil aims to increase its Greater Chennai network from 14 to 25 stores over the next 18 months. Chennai already generates 20-23% of total revenue. The company also plans to open roughly 10 stores every year across Tamil Nadu over the next three to four years before entering other states.

    Management projects this expansion will drive a 25% revenue increase while maintaining an EBITDA margin near 6%. Jewellery demand dropped in Q1FY27 as high gold prices deterred buyers. However, recent gold price drops have revived customer interest. Management notes that buyers delayed rather than cancelled purchases, and expects festive and wedding demand to power a recovery in H2FY27.

    Lasrado and Pala highlight strong store productivity, with inventory turnover of 3.2 times annually, beating management’s target of 2.5-3 times. They forecast earnings per share to grow at a 24% CAGR over FY27-29, backed by new stores, demand recovery, and steady sales at existing locations.

    3. Pearl Global Industries (PGIL): 

    ICICI Direct upgrades this apparel maker to a ‘Buy’ rating from ‘Hold ’, with a higher target price of Rs 1,600, an upside of 24%. Analysts Kaustubh Pawaskar and Abhishek Shankar believe PGIL’s manufacturing presence across several countries gives it an advantage in serving global customers and increasing its share of exports.

    The company plans to increase its annual apparel production capacity from 10.1 crore pieces in FY26 to 17-17.5 crore pieces. Its factories in Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia and Guatemala are already operating at 80-90% capacity, leaving limited room to handle additional orders without expansion. 

    PGIL also plans to add capacity in India, supported by government incentives for textile manufacturing and new free trade agreements (FTAs). The UK is estimated to become a bigger market, with analysts forecasting its contribution to revenue to rise from around 4% currently to 10% by FY30, helped by the India-UK FTA.

    Pawaskar and Shankar believe PGIL’s diverse production and broad customer base also reduce its dependence on any single market. This has helped the company manage disruptions such as the West Asia conflict and US tariffs. Management targets revenue of Rs 9,000-10,000 crore by FY30, implying 16-18% annual growth, driven by new customers, higher business from existing clients, expansion into new product categories and better utilisation of its factories.

    4. SPR Auto Technologies: 

    Motilal Oswal initiates coverage on this auto parts maker with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 6,150, an upside of 29.5%. Analysts Radha Agarwalla and Jeemit Shah note that SPR is transforming from a traditional piston maker into a diversified mobility platform via acquisitions. This strategy builds a scalable auto component platform with balanced exposure across powertrains.

    SPR remains a strong player in its core piston business, with around 45% market share. Analysts expect this business to continue growing as pistons are still required in petrol, diesel and other fuel-based engines. The company is also increasing sales in the replacement market and industries outside automobiles, reducing its dependence on any one segment. At the same time, the exit of some global competitors from conventional engine components could help SPR gain incremental market share.

    Agarwalla and Shah report that recent acquisitions of Antolin, Takahata, Timex Group Precision Engineering, and EMF Innovations generate about 35% of revenue. These businesses have expanded the company into precision plastic components while giving it a wider mix of products, customers and markets. They project a revenue and net profit CAGR of about 21% over FY27-29. 

    5. Dr Lal PathLabs (DLPL): 

    Emkay retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this healthcare diagnostics provider and raises its target price to Rs 2,100, an upside of 7.7%. Analysts Anshul Agrawal and Vivek Sethia forecast DLPL to benefit from its strong market position as more customers move towards organised diagnostic chains and preventive health testing becomes more common.

    The company has approved the acquisition of a 70% stake in SN Genelab, a diagnostics company focused on serving hospitals, laboratories and other businesses, for Rs 168 crore. Management projects the deal to strengthen DLPL’s range of specialised tests and reduce its dependence on any one region. Analysts anticipate DLPL to cross-sell SN Genelab tests across its B2B and B2C channels, with revenue gains reflecting in the next two to three years.

    Agrawal and Sethia also see advanced testing as an important growth area for the company. DLPL is investing in genomics, which uses genetic information to help diagnose and understand diseases. These capabilities could help it offer more specialised services and stand out from other large diagnostic chains. The analysts expect revenue to grow at a 14.6% CAGR and net profit at a 16.7% CAGR through FY29.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    25 Sep 2026
    Pre Monday: A big debut, and some new things to worry about

    Pre Monday: A big debut, and some new things to worry about

    It's been a hectic week. The roads were jammed with festival celebrations, which I felt was a bit unfair since Ganesha is supposed to remove obstacles. My phone died as I waited for red lights to change and traffic to clear. I also ate too many sweets.

    This week was also busy for markets, as the event Indian investors have been waiting for a decade, finally happened: NSE listed. The NSE IPO attracted more than $10 billion in bids. The stock debuted at Rs 1,800 and rose 5%, and finished its first day just 1.85% higher, valuing NSE at around $47 billion.

    This week has some brand new signals for what comes next.

    1. The IPO boom has dipped a straw into market liquidity

    NSE's $2.3 billion issue was India's second-largest IPO, and more IPOs are on the way. Snapdeal parent AceVector is planning to list, and Brookfield-backed solar manufacturer Avaada Electro has started roadshows for a $793 million IPO.

    Abakkus Investment Managers warned last month that India's surging IPO pipeline could absorb liquidity that would have otherwise entered existing equities, even though corporate earnings are improving.

    That makes NSE's restrained debut a sign, that investors were excited by the stock, but the valuations may have tempered  momentum. 

    The market cue: Watch if IPO demand remains high, but listing gains become less exciting. That would suggest Indian risk appetite is alive but valuation discipline is coming back.

    2. Insurance saw a "reverse UPI" moment

    The biggest shock this week was regulator-created.  PB Fintech plunged 36% on Thursday after insurance regulator IRDAI proposed tighter commission and expense rules, with new restrictions on online insurance sales practices. The shares remained under pressure on Friday.

    The bombshell impact goes beyond Policybazaar. Lower commissions could transform insurance distribution economics, force insurers to rethink acquisition spending and shift profits more towards insurance manufacturers. PB Fintech CEO Yashish Dahiya has said that significantly lower commissions could force the company to become an insurance manufacturer itself.

    This comes just a week after India's new UPI fees created a lucrative profit pool for payments companies. Indian fintech is getting a reminder that regulators can create a new business model one week, and upend an industry the next. 

    The market cue: Watch share prices of insurers, brokers and digital financial distributors next week. Analysts have to recalculate who loses commission income and who will gain market share. The burning question is whether vertically integrated insurance businesses become more valuable.

    3. Tech and real estate popped while the market struggled

    Thursday produced India's steepest equity decline in ten weeks. But hardware tech and real estate had a great week. 

    Meanwhile, companies are rushing to borrow. Reliance reportedly plans to raise Rs 10,000 crore through a ten-year bond next week, joining a stream of large companies tapping India's abundant banking liquidity.

    The overall trend shows that IPO demand is strong, some sectors are doing pretty well, and credit/lending markets are healthy. There's plenty of cash being invested across the economy.

    The market cue: The signal to watch next week will be market breadth. If capital goods and other earnings-backed sectors are outperforming while the index struggles, the market's emphasis is clearly on earnings.

    This particular signal seems to be getting stronger: that investors are becoming very selective. The upcoming results season will therefore be interesting to watch. The winners are getting separated from the losers fast, and there may be very obvious picks during results season for investors looking for promising players. 

    Heard on the street

    Promoter exit buzz in Whirlpool: Anonymous sources say that promoter Whirlpool Mauritius (the Indian arm of the US parent) is selling its entire remaining 39.7% stake. The deal could be in its final stages, with large investors and a multinational consumer durables company in the mix, and an announcement expected in coming weeks. The stock immediately jumped nearly 20% and hit the upper circuit. It then kept rising and rising. By Friday it was up roughly 33% on unusually heavy volumes.

    On social media and trading desks, the name that attached itself as a buyer was LG Electronics. There is no confirmation from either side. The news remains in the gossip territory, and unverified.

    The Tata Sons rumours continue to swirl: The Tata Sons board met on 17 September, and by a 4-1 vote, decided to move forward with a IPO listing plan with an internal target of around February 2027. Noel Tata reportedly wanted a much longer timeline of 2029.

    Bankers have not been formally appointed yet. The company still has to sort capital structure, convertible preference shares, related-party disclosures, and three years of financials. 

    ET, citing people in the know, also reported that at the board meeting, Noel suggested restructuring Tata Sons by splitting it into several smaller entities so that no single entity stays above the RBI threshold that forces a listing. It is unclear whether the board will even take that proposal up.

    Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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    The Baseline
    25 Sep 2026
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - September 25, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - September 25, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Sansera Engineering:

    This precision components manufacturer rose 6.7% on September 22 after Goldman Sachsmaintained its ‘Buy’ rating and raised its target price to Rs 4,990 from Rs 4,500, implying a 7% upside. The brokerage highlighted major investments in India’s semiconductor sector, with Applied Materials committing $5 billion and Lam Research $1.2 billion. Goldman Sachs believes these investments will benefit local suppliers and accelerate growth in Sansera’s high-margin aerospace, defence and semiconductor (ADS) division. 

    To move beyond traditional auto parts, Sansera is rapidly growing its ADS business. The company builds high-precision parts for semiconductor manufacturing equipment. In August, a major client awarded Sansera a five-year contract worth Rs 1,250 crore. This deal boosted the company's ADS order backlog by nearly 30% to Rs 5,750 crore, roughly 1.6x its FY26 revenue.

    The shift was visible in Q1FY27, when ADS revenue more than tripled YoY to Rs 145.4 crore, nearly half of its FY26 level. Stronger execution and surging exports outside the US and Europe fueled this growth. ADS now drives 14% of Sansera’s revenue, a sharp jump from just 5% in Q1FY26. Commenting on the FY27 outlook, CEO B R Preetham said, “Considering our growth, it will be about 75%-80% in ADS.”

    To manage this massive order book, Sansera is expanding its infrastructure. It is building an 80,000-square-foot facility to boost output. The company has also set up an in-house surface-treatment facility, allowing it to finish and treat components internally instead of relying on outside vendors. Management expects this upgrade to speed up deliveries and tighten quality control.

    However, execution remains critical. Sansera needs customer approvals before it can start large-scale production and turn its orders into sales. Management says missing an approval deadline can delay production by up to a year. The company also still counts on its legacy auto business for most of its income. Any slowdown in vehicle demand could drag down overall earnings, even as the semiconductor segment surges.

    2. Mankind Pharma:

    This pharmaceutical company rose 1.7% on Tuesday after Kotak Institutional Equities upgraded its stock to a “Buy” rating from “Add”. The brokerage also raised its target price to Rs 3,000, implying an upside of 22%.

    Kotak believes the company's core domestic prescription business is finally recovering after a prolonged restructuring of its sales force. The business accounts for about 80% of overall revenue. One sign of improving demand within this business is sales to pharmacies, which grew 12.7% YoY in the Q1FY27, broadly in line with the Indian pharmaceutical market. The pace picked up over July and August, with growth reaching 14.6%, 1.2 percentage points above the market.

    The company is also increasing its focus on chronic drugs, used for long-term conditions such as diabetes and heart disease. Its share of the base domestic business rose to about 40% in Q1. Vice Chairman and MD Rajeev Juneja said, “We remain focused on increasing our chronic share to 50% in the medium term,” while CEO Sheetal Arora said the company expects to get there over the next four to five years. A higher chronic mix, price hikes and a weak base last year helped lift gross margin by 230 basis points to 72.8%.

    Kotak expects higher research spending, more launches and stronger volumes to keep the recovery going. The company's 2024 acquisition of Bharat Serums and Vaccines (BSV) expanded its specialty portfolio into areas such as women's health and fertility. BSV grew 21% in Q1, and the company expects high-teens growth this year as it expands in overseas markets and secures approvals in new ones.

    The company is also paying down debt taken on for the BSV acquisition. Net debt fell 14% between FY26 and Q1, while finance costs dropped 22.5% sequentially. Global CFO Ashutosh Dhawan said the company remains “on track to repay the acquisition-related debt by FY28.”

    The near-term earnings outlook is also strong. Forecaster expects net profit to rise 31.4% in Q2FY27 alongside a 10% increase in revenue. Kotak expects the prescription recovery, higher volumes and new launches to support 23% annual growth in earnings per share through FY29.

    3. PB Fintech: 

    This insurance distributor’s stock plummeted 38.2% to a 52-week low of Rs 1,115 in two sessions from Thursday. The crash followed the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India's (IRDAI’s) proposal to slash insurance commissions and set strict distribution spending limits to prevent mis-selling. These tighter spending caps will squeeze PB Fintech’s core revenue streams.

    The regulator plans commission cuts across key insurance products. New health insurance commissions will drop to 15% from over 30%, while health renewal commissions will fall to 5% from 10-20%. Third-party motor insurance commissions will also plunge to zero from 16%, and own-damage motor commissions will shrink to 5%. As an open-architecture distributor, PB Fintech faces a direct hit to its core earnings from these lower caps.

    Management expects no impact on FY27 results but predicts FY28 will be a volatile transition year as the company overhauls its business model to meet the new regulations. PB Fintech said lower distribution commissions could alter the economics of its existing business model and make insurance manufacturing a more relevant option.

    Co-founder and CEO Yashish Dahiya notes that the changes will impact the general insurance business, while leaving life insurance largely untouched. He said, “The general insurance segment FY28 revenue is expected to drop to 33-40% of current levels.” However, management believes cost benefits can be partially passed through as volume expansion, with 15-20% growth expected as the business adjusts to the new economics.

    To cushion the blow, management will slash marketing expenses rather than staff lay-offs. Dahiya sees room to optimise costs, noting the contact centre generates around 20% of revenue. He anticipates volume growth will demand more tele-calling support to explain complex products and assist with claims.

    Brokerages slashed their target prices sharply following the IRDAI proposal. HSBC delivered the deepest cut, downgrading the stock to a ‘Hold’ rating and lowering its target by 45% to Rs 1,150. It slashed FY28 and FY29 earnings estimates by 56% and 17%, respectively, with the impact of lower take rates partly offset by slightly higher volume growth and cost savings. 

    Jefferies retained its ‘Buy’ rating but trimmed its target by 24.9%. The brokerage estimates that every 10% drop in new-business commissions will wipe out 10-12% of the company's earnings.

    4. Meesho:

    The stock of this internet & catalogue retail company rose over 4% in the past week after UBS delivered a positive outlook on the e-commerce platform. Reaffirming its ‘Buy’ rating, the brokerage raised its target price to Rs 260, anticipating stronger medium-term growth and accelerated margin expansion. While keeping its FY27 estimates largely unchanged, UBS bumped up its FY29–FY31 net merchandise value (NMV) and contribution profit projections by 7% to 18%, alongside a major 20% to 40% upward revision in EBITDA estimates.

    UBS attributed the sharper boost in EBITDA expectations to expanding operational margins, driven by higher ad monetization and improved delivery economics. Even as management remains confident in its FY27 outlook, analysts noted that shifting Diwali from October 2025 to November 2026 will likely slow Q2 growth before fueling a faster Q3 rebound. The stock appears on a screener for companies that have outperformed their industry over the past month.

    Meesho kicked off FY27 on a strong note as Q1 revenue jumped 45.5% YoY to Rs 3,826.4 crore. Boosted by higher merchandise volume, net losses narrowed significantly to Rs 132.8 crore from Rs 289.4 crore in Q1FY26. Cost per delivery decreased by roughly Rs 1 QoQ despite fuel hikes and wage adjustments. Looking ahead, management expects a 25% NMV CAGR through FY31, aiming to nearly double its annual transacting users from 274 million in Q1FY27 to over 500 million over the medium term.

    Analysts at Ventura highlighted that India's e-commerce sector remains structurally underpenetrated, offering a massive long-term runway for platforms like Meesho. Online retail currently represents only ~7% of India's retail market, well behind adoption rates seen in Indonesia, the US, and China. However, the brokerage cautioned that aggressive competition or merchant churn could present headwinds to gross merchandise value and overall order growth.

    5. Tega Industries:

    This mining equipment and consumables maker jumped 10% on Monday after its subsidiary, Tega McNally Minerals, won a Rs 126 crore contract from Kalpataru Projects International. The 14-month contract covers the design, manufacture, supply and commissioning of mineral-processing equipment. Tega makes critical components used in mining and mineral-processing operations, including mill liners, wear-resistant products and conveyor components. These products need to be replaced as they wear down, giving the company a recurring consumables business across global mining markets. 

    The bigger change for the business came from Tega’s acquisition of Molycop, which it completed in June at an enterprise value of about $1.5 billion. Molycop is a major supplier of grinding products used in mineral processing, particularly for copper and gold mines. Tega partnered with Apollo Funds for the deal, with Tega holding 84.18% of the acquisition vehicle (joint venture) and Apollo owning the remainder.

    Molycop contributed around 75% of group revenue in Q1 despite being consolidated for only one month. On the pro forma financials used when the deal was announced, Molycop accounted for nearly 90% of combined revenue, making it the main revenue driver for the enlarged group.

    The next leg of growth could come from cross-selling products through the combined customer network. MD and Group CEO Mehul Mohanka said, “We expect the revenue ramp up to actually happen from Q3 to Q4 onwards of this fiscal year.” Forecaster expects annual revenue to rise more than ninefold in FY27, with net profit growing more than threefold.

    Molycop also brings significant debt onto the balance sheet. Its net debt stood at about Rs 6,366 crore at the end of June, down by roughly a third during Q1. Patrick Koley, Chief Financial Officer, Molycop, said the subsidiary’s net debt should decline further by year-end. Tega is also evaluating non-core assets, with proceeds potentially going towards debt repayment.

    Tega also expects around $20 million in synergies from combining the two businesses over the next two to three years, mainly through procurement, cost savings and operational efficiencies. The latest analyst consensus tracked by Trendlyne is Hold, reflecting uncertainty around the integration and pace of the earnings ramp-up.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    23 Sep 2026

    Big names, uneven returns: What drove India’s business groups over the year

    By Anagh Keremutt

    Lately, it feels like one Adani stock or another is turning up among the gainers. The Adani family's listed companies span power, ports, renewables, cement and other businesses, and several of its larger stocks have risen over the past year. 

    But how have India’s other big business groups fared? Lalit Kumar, Fund Manager at ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, says large promoter-led groups benefit from “deep balance sheets, lower borrowing costs, and access to multiple growth engines.” 

    Most of these groups have businesses spread across multiple industries, which usually helps reduce risk. But that diversification does not always show up in stock returns. A few big companies can still end up deciding how the whole group performs.

    For this analysis, we give bigger listed companies more weight based on their market value. And the results tell very different stories. Adani Group’s gains were largely broad-based, while IndusInd Bank and Ashok Leyland drove most of Hinduja’s return.

    Even as most listed companies within Bajaj and Murugappa fell, both groups still posted positive returns as a few large stocks outweighed the declines elsewhere. Tata and Mahindra lost ground mainly because of their largest companies, while Reliance and Godrej saw all their group stocks decline.

    Sector mix played a part too. Groups with greater exposure to power, steel and financials generally fared better, while IT, consumer and real estate businesses weighed on others.

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at how India’s major business groups performed over the past year and which companies drove those returns.

    Group leaders drive gains, but breadth varies

    The best-performing groups saw very different levels of participation across their listed companies. Adani drew support from several large companies, Hinduja leaned on two flagship names, while a handful of stocks drove much of the upside at Aditya Birla and Jindal.

    Adani’s listed companies rose nearly 36% on a market-cap-weighted basis, with gains spread across its larger names. Its median stock gained roughly 17%, while Ambuja Cements was the main laggard.

    Power generation and transmission drove much of the upside. Adani Power alone contributed around 15 percentage points to the group return. By Q1FY27, it had secured long-term buyers for 56% of its planned capacity additions, while Adani Energy Solutions had transmission projects worth about Rs 71,800 crore under construction.

    IndusInd Bank and Ashok Leyland drove most of Hinduja Group’s 22% gain. Together, they account for about 95% of the group’s listed market capitalisation.

    IndusInd Bank’s shares recovered from their sharp March 2025 fall, which followed discrepancies in its derivatives book. In Q1FY27, loans grew 3% sequentially, marking their first increase after six straight quarters of contraction. Ashok Leyland also gained as truck and light-commercial-vehicle demand stayed strong, while the company held a 34% share of India’s bus market.

    Aditya Birla Group rose 20%, even though half of its 14 listed companies fell over the year. Vodafone Idea, Hindalco, AB Capital and Grasim drove much of the gain. UltraTech Cement, its largest listed company, declined and knocked off 4 percentage points from the group’s overall return.

    Vodafone alone added 12 percentage points to the group gain. The Indian government reduced its long-pending telecom dues by 27% and postponed most repayments, easing a major financial burden. In Q1FY27, the company posted its first quarterly net subscriber additions since the 2018 merger.

    The Jindal Group relied heavily on JSW Steel, which contributed around 6.2 percentage points to the group’s 7.8% return. Jindal Steel also supported the gains.

    India’s curbs on cheaper steel imports helped domestic producers, with the government introducing a three-year safeguard duty in December 2025. The government also imposed anti-dumping duties on some steel products from China and Vietnam, supporting domestic pricing. In Q1FY27, JSW Steel more than doubled its profit YoY as higher steel prices and record first-quarter sales boosted margins.

    Few winners keep group returns afloat

    Positive group returns masked much weaker performance underneath. For example, Bajaj and Murugappa posted positive returns even as most of their companies fell over the past year.

    Only two of Bajaj Group’s 11 listed companies gained over the year. Bajaj Auto drove much of the group’s 1.2% return, led by its exports, which jumped 54% in Q1FY27. Bajaj Finance was the only other stock in the green, while the group’s median stock fell 19%.

    Murugappa Group gained 2.5% even as its median stock fell nearly 13%. CG Power and Cholamandalam Investment, which together account for about 62% of the group's listed market capitalisation, helped keep the overall return positive.

    Demand for power equipment helped CG Power build a much larger order pipeline, with its power systems order backlog rising 59% YoY in Q1FY27. Cholamandalam Investment also rose 10.8% over the past year.

    Heavyweights sink some groups, broad declines hit others

    The weaker groups fell for different reasons. The losses were concentrated at Tata and Mahindra, but spread across the board at Reliance and Godrej. 

    Tata Group slipped 4%, with TCS largely driving the losses. The stock plunged 33% as Indian IT faced weaker client spending and worries over how AI could reshape outsourcing. Titan partly offset the impact, rising 42%.

    Tata’s return needs some context. Tata Motors split its passenger and commercial vehicle businesses during the year. The latter listed separately only in November 2025, making its 1-year return less comparable with the rest. The RBI also rejected Tata Sons’ request to give up its non-bank lender registration, raising expectations of a future listing. Tata Chemicals, Tata Motors and other group stocks briefly rallied on the news before giving up much of those gains.

    Mahindra & Mahindra played a similar role, driving much of the Mahindra group’s 8.5% decline. The stock fell over 15% as higher input costs and rising inventories weighed on the auto business. Its operating margin contracted 1.8 percentage points to 7.1% in Q1FY27.

    Reliance Group dropped 13.5%, with all ten listed companies ending the year in the red. Reliance Industries was the main drag and accounts for over 90% of the group’s listed market capitalisation. The smaller stocks saw a sharper decline, with the group’s median return falling over 30%.

    Vaqarjaved Khan, analyst at Angel Onesays RIL’s fall reflects pressure on near-term earnings and valuations, with West Asia disruptions raising crude premiums and freight costs. “At current levels, much of the bad news appears priced in,” he added.

    Godrej recorded the steepest decline during the year, falling 21% alongside a 14% drop in the group’s median return. Godrej Consumer Products was the biggest drag, weighed down by higher raw material costs due to the West Asia conflict. The stock also plunged over 11% on August 12 after CEO Sudhir Sitapati resigned unexpectedly, shortly after shareholders approved another five-year term. 

    Godrej Properties added to the pressure as its pre-sales growth slowed after peaking in FY25. Rising premium housing supply also slowed sales across key markets.

    A group may span several businesses, but its stock-market return can still depend heavily on where most of its listed value sits.

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    The Baseline
    22 Sep 2026
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - September 22, 2026

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - September 22, 2026

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Avalon Technologies:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this electronics manufacturing services provider, with a target price of Rs 2,740, an upside of 11%. Analysts Sumant Kumar and Yash Darak believe the company will drive the next phase by expanding into high-value businesses like semiconductor equipment and battery energy storage systems (BESS). The company started commercial production of electronic power boxes in Q1FY27 for a top global semiconductor equipment maker after two years of development.

    Management plans to build the semiconductor equipment business into a separate division over the next 18 to 24 months. To support this, they are building dedicated manufacturing facilities in Chennai. BESS is another major opportunity, especially in the US, where demand is rising because of investment in renewable energy, power grids and data centres. Avalon is also enhancing production for aerospace, railway safety systems, locomotive parts and satellite communication equipment.

    Kumar and Darak predict these new businesses and faster order completion will accelerate Avalon's growth rate between FY27 and FY29. They forecast annual increases of 40% for revenue, 47% for EBITDA, and 56% for net profit. Semiconductor equipment and US energy storage demand will contribute heavily to this success, while higher-value products will boost profitability improvement.

    2. Sagility:

    Emkay initiates coverage on this healthcare services company with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 55, an upside of 20.6%. Analysts Dipeshkumar Mehta and Jimit Gandhi favour Sagility as they believe rising US healthcare spending and pressure on insurers to cut costs will push more companies to outsource their operations.

    Sagility is perfectly positioned to capture this trend, drawing 90% of its revenue from US health insurers. It delivers essential, recurring services that support daily insurance operations. Analysts note that US national healthcare spending will rise 5.4% annually from 2026 to 2034, outpacing the broader economy, fueled by an ageing population, chronic diseases, and higher healthcare usage. They forecast Sagility’s revenue will improve 15% annually from FY27-29.

    Management targets low double-digit revenue growth and a 24% to 25% EBITDA margin in FY27. The performance should come from deepening ties with existing clients, launching new services, and expanding among mid-sized US insurers. Mehta and Gandhi highlight that the company is also using acquisitions to add capabilities and clients. BroadPath brought around 30 client groups, while CareSeed added 26 and strengthened the company’s healthcare quality and analytics services.

    3. Siemens Energy India (SEIL): 

    Deven Choksey initiates coverage with a ‘Buy’ rating on this energy technology manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 4,554 per share, a 40.8% upside. Analyst Manik Jain calls the company a high-potential investment in India’s expanding power transmission and generation sectors. SEIL offers a broad portfolio covering grid infrastructure, power generation, engineering services, and research.

    SEIL anticipates maintaining its dominance in the high-voltage direct current (HVDC) segment, where it holds a 30% market share. Expanding renewable energy networks, complex power grids, and the need for flexible power systems will drive a 16.5% annual revenue growth in the segment through FY30. SEIL also leads power generation, commanding a 55% market share in steam turbines. India's plans to build more thermal and nuclear power plants will create strong demand for these turbines over the long term.

    Jain notes that SEIL is well-positioned to benefit from India’s transmission investment cycle through its diverse portfolio across transformers, switchgear, substations and grid-stabilisation solutions. SEIL is also increasing exports by using its Indian factories to supply global markets. Strong transformer capabilities and new US opportunities will boost export sales. He projects the firm to deliver annual growth rates of 25% for revenue and 35% for net profit between FY27 and FY29.

    4. Federal Bank: 

    Axis Direct retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this private bank with a higher target price of Rs 380, implying an upside of 16.2%. Analysts Dnyanada Vaidya and Abhishek Pandya remain positive on the bank, led by a strengthening deposit base and accelerating credit growth in focus segments like retail, commercial banking, and specialised assets.

    Management estimates stronger growth in current accounts in FY27 as it expands its business banking operations and partnerships. The bank is also focusing on attracting more customers to its savings accounts by introducing premium offerings for high-income individuals, mass-affluent customers, and high net worth individuals. It doubled the pace of new current account openings last year and is encouraging employees to focus equally on bringing in deposits and giving out loans. A larger share of current and savings account deposits can help the bank keep its funding costs under control.

    Federal Bank believes its loan book will climb at a mid-teens rate, supported by retail and business lending. Vaidya and Pandya highlight that an improved portfolio mix and stable deposit rates will boost asset yields. They believe the bank can scale up without taking excessive lending risks, helped by a well-diversified loan book and a wider customer base. Analysts expect income earned from lending to rise by around 19% annually and net profit by 26% annually through FY29.

    5. Sakar Healthcare:

    ICICI Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this small-cap pharma company, with a target price of Rs 1,310, an upside of 10.2%. Analysts Siddhant Khandekar and Shubh Mehta estimate that cancer medicines will generate up to Rs 100 crore in revenue in the long-term, driven by higher sales in Europe.

    Sakar Healthcare is boosting production to meet rising demand for its cancer medicines. The company is also taking over the manufacturing of 10 cancer medicines from Accord-Intas, which sells these products in international markets. Eight of these have already received approval for sale, including five tablets and three injectable medicines.

    Management anticipates securing 40 regulatory approvals to sell its medicines across overseas markets by the end of FY27 and up to 90 by FY28. These new approvals could add Rs 150-200 crore to annual revenue by FY29. The oncology business alone is expected to triple by FY28. Sakar is also growing its non-cancer business by manufacturing products for Zydus, Emcure, Glenmark, and Cipla, while increasing exports of blood-thinning medicines and antibiotics.

    Khandekar and Mehta believe higher exports, new drug approvals, expanding production, and more in-house raw material manufacturing will boost revenue and margins. They add that Sakar recently cleared a European regulatory inspection and anticipates a positive final report.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    18 Sep 2026
    Pre Monday: While the Nifty sulks, the money keeps flowing in

    Pre Monday: While the Nifty sulks, the money keeps flowing in

    It's a muted market, it's not a muted market. Both of these things are true. The Nifty is down nearly 11% this year and under pressure. But Indian investors put a record Rs 32,297 crore into SIPs in August. While the headline index has struggled, money is moving aggressively into smaller companies and new listings. 

    Opportunities lie beyond the big guns.

    Equity mutual funds received Rs 29,329 crore in August, up 19% from the previous month, as SIP contributions hit an all-time high.

    Small-cap funds took in Rs 7,973 crore and mid-cap funds Rs 6,989 crore. Large-cap funds actually saw Rs 1,147 crore leave, their second consecutive month of outflows. Investor investment has moved away from index heavyweights. 

    Jefferies' Chris Wood notes that Indian midcaps could also get global investor attention if enthusiasm around the US AI trade cools. 

    The market cue: Investors may benefit from watching market breadth more closely than the Nifty. If mid and smallcaps keep out-performing on weak index days, this correction may be more like a rotation.

    Over the past six years, the UPI payments system became enormous, even as the payments stayed free. That is changing, as from October 15, qualifying merchant transactions above Rs 2,000 will attract a 0.4% fee.

    JP Morgan estimates that the UPI fee could create an annual revenue pool of roughly Rs 16,000–17,000 crore, with around 60% potentially going to banks, 25% to app providers and 15% to aggregators. Goldman Sachs and others have already raised estimates for payment companies.

    Goldman's high-end scenario suggests Paytm's FY28 EBITDA could be 40–70% higher than its previous estimate. This is very good news for the high volume UPI companies that have long struggled with their margins. However, retailers are already protesting the fee and the suggested rule change could face a court challenge. 

    The market cue: Payments and transaction-heavy banks have an earnings catalyst that didn't exist a week ago. Watch Paytm, Pine Labs and high UPI volume banks, as analysts figure out who benefits.

    Nippon India Mutual Fund says demand indicators are now improving across autos, consumer staples and bank credit, while Q1 results suggested an earnings recovery. The big test from here is whether demand holds into the festive season.

    CRISIL notes that passenger vehicle sales rose 25.6% year-on-year, two wheelers 20.6%, while central government capex grew 23.7%. It has raised India's FY27 GDP forecast from 6.6% to 7%.

    Barclays sees a boost for India's banks and mid-sized financials, discretionary consumption, autos, telecom, metals and capital goods.

    The market cue: The interesting trade here won't be 'buy consumer brands'. Investors should instead keep an eye on earnings upgrades for companies linked to discretionary spending and consumer credit, ahead of results.

    NSE's $2.3 billion IPO was fully subscribed on its second day, led by institutional demand. Its anchor book included existing investor LIC, and sovereign wealth funds from Norway and Abu Dhabi. Trading is due to begin on September 24.

    Five mainboard IPOs are open this week, and the rush is already pulling liquidity away from the secondary market.

    The market cue: Don't immediately interpret weak volumes as bearishness next week. The massive NSE listing in particular, can  distort where cash is going.

    Goldman Sachs has identified 42 Indian AI enablers including ACME Solar, Sterlite Tech, and Polycab India across areas such as power and semiconductors.

    The basket is up roughly 60% in 2026, while its earnings estimates have been upgraded around 22%. Nifty 500 estimates, by comparison, have been cut by 2%. 

    Market cue: It looks like India was hiding its AI theme in the power and infra sectors.  

    The Tata family quarrel continues to play out in full public view. The Tata Group companies lost about $3.2 billion in market value on Friday after Tata Trusts has publicly challenged N. Chandrasekaran's reappointment and opposed moves towards listing Tata Sons.

    Tata Trusts owns roughly two-thirds of Tata Sons. Shapoorji Pallonji, its second-largest shareholder, wants the listing, partly with the hope that selling its shares in the IPO will help pay the debts of the Pallonji Group.

    The ongoing stalemate could affect capital allocation and major investments across Tata businesses ranging from Air India to chips and batteries.

    Finally, talk on the street is that two names for HDFC Bank CEO have already gone to the RBI. One is rumored to be Kaizad Bharucha, the current Deputy MD. The second name is described only as an external “top private banker.” 

    Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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    The Baseline
    18 Sep 2026
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - September 18, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - September 18, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Pine Labs:

    Thispayments company rose 16.8% on September 11 after the Reserve Bank of Indiareportedly extended the deadline for re-KYC of existing merchants by six months to March 15, 2027. This extension prevents major transaction delays and buys aggregators valuable time. Chief Business Officer Kush Mehra welcomed the news, stating, “I'm glad that we have got this breather.”

    A strong forecast for the upcoming festive season also fueled the rally. Managementexpects a promising second and third quarter as shoppers spend more. Pine Labspredicts that increased payment processing and transaction fees will boost its contribution margin to 73-74% in H2FY27.

    This bright outlook follows a toughQ1FY27 where the contribution margin dropped 560 bps YoY to 72.3%. The company spent heavily to expand its network infrastructure and relied more on lower-margin distribution, causing the dip. Despite the margin pressure, net profit nearly quadrupled to Rs 19.6 crore, and revenue jumped 20% to reach Rs 737 crore, driven by strong growth in online payments and international processing.

    A new rule offers another massive growth opportunity. Starting October 15, the National Payments Corporation of India willcharge a 0.4% fee on UPI merchant payments over Rs 2,000. Pine Labs, which processes UPI payments for merchants, can now earn a share of this fee, creating a new revenue stream from UPI payments. The opportunity is significant as more than 70% of transactions at its digital checkout points are through UPI. CEO Amrish Rausaid the industry previously grew “without a clear path to monetisation,” but this new fee creates a sustainable business model.

    Following this announcement, Jefferieskept its ‘Buy’ rating and raised its target price to Rs 235 from Rs 180, an upside of 22.4%. The brokerage predicts the new fee could inject Rs 160 crore into the company's FY28 revenue, equal to about 20% of its FY28 EBIT estimates. However, the actual benefit relies on how many transactions qualify and how banks, payment apps, and aggregators split the fees. 

    2. Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services:

    This hospital chain stock surged 9% on Thursday after Advent International agreed to invest Rs 3,150 crore for a 24.9% stake, giving Yatharth fresh capital to accelerate its expansion. The investment will come through a preferential issue of shares and warrants, while the promoter Tyagi family will remain the company’s largest shareholder. The company appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased their shareholding last quarter.

    Yatharth has been steadily building a North India-focused hospital network, with 2,800+ beds across nine hospitals. Occupancy is improving YoY and currently stands at 68%, with newer facilities contributing around 30% to sales. Established hospitals in Noida and Jhansi-Orchha also continued to grow, while another 700 beds are planned through the upcoming Gurugram hospital and brownfield expansions in Noida.

    The bigger opportunity now is to increase utilisation at these newer hospitals and improve profitability as they mature. The new hospital in Faridabad reached EBITDA breakeven within nine months, while its hospital in Agra delivered more than 20% margin in its first full quarter after integration. The New Delhi Model Town hospital is also scaling with an ARPOB close to Rs 50,000 and is on track to reach breakeven by year-end. Yatharth Tyagi, Whole-Time Director, said, “Newer hospitals can become a drag on the margins in the medium term, but we will be closer to 24%.” The company’s adjusted margin, excluding the impact of newer hospitals, stood at 28.1%.

    Yatharth is targeting 5,000 beds, with announced capacity already above 3,200 beds. Commenting on the timeline, Tyagi said, “I think it should be even less than three years, probably somewhere around two and a half years.” The company is also evaluating further acquisitions in North India, focusing on metro and large cities where it sees scope for higher ARPOB.

    The expansion supports a shift towards higher-value specialties and a better payer mix. Yatharth expects EBITDA margin to be above 24% for FY27, with ARPOB growing 9-10%. Choice Institutional Equities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, and expects the revenue and profit to compound at 37% and 39%, respectively, through FY29.

    3. Urban Company:

    This special consumer services company rose 4% on Wednesday after a positive outlook from UBS. The brokerage says India's online home services market is entering its “Blinkit moment.” It cited Urban Company's scale, repeat users and service network as advantages over newer rivals.

    The number of orders jumped 79% in Q1FY27, even as average order value fell 21% to Rs 1,110. Lower-priced InstaHelp orders partly explain the drop. Even so, transaction value per customer in Urban Company's core India business rose 7% to Rs 1,293.

    The company is also retaining more customers. Returning customers generated 83% of Urban Company's FY26 bookings by value, up from 72% in FY22. Customers who joined in FY18 now spend nearly twice as much as they did in their first year.

    Growth is spreading beyond the largest cities too. Service value in smaller cities rose 36% in Q1, faster than the 29% growth in Urban Co's top 10 cities.

    UBS also expects InstaHelp, Urban Co's quick home-help service, to reach breakeven by FY30, a year earlier than management's FY31 target. Loss per order narrowed 23% in Q1, while average order value fell 8% to Rs 138 as competition kept introductory prices low. CEO and co-founder Abhiraj Singh Bhal said the average order value “has to get to around Rs 300 for this business to break even.” He added that, in a worst-case scenario, reaching that price point could take up to five years if competition remains intense.

    Urban Company also has plenty of cash to keep investing in InstaHelp. It ended June with Rs 2,019 crore in cash and investments, while it had no borrowings at FY26-end. 

    Management expects the overall company to reach adjusted operating breakeven by Q3FY28 and around Rs 1,000 crore of adjusted operating earnings by FY31. But UBS is slightly more optimistic, forecasting about Rs 1,130 crore by the same period.

    4. Cochin Shipyard: 

    This shipbuilding & repair stock plunged 8.1% last week after management issued a weak margin outlook during a September 10 analyst call. CMD Jose VJ stated, “We expect EBITDA margin to drop to 14% over the next two years from 22.5% in FY26.” This comes as high-margin legacy defence contracts come to an end.

    The company’s Rs 22,000 crore order book now relies heavily on lower-margin shipbuilding. The highly profitable ship repair segment makes up just 5.5% of pending orders, a sharp drop considering its revenue contribution of 33% in FY26.

    Ship repair remains a vital growth engine despite this near-term dip. Cochin is expanding its capacity in this space. The newly opened International Ship Repair Facility (ISRF) at Wellington Island in Kochi now services commercial and naval vessels under 130 meters and 6,000 tonnes.

    To maximise the ISRF's potential, Cochin formed a 50:50 joint venture with Drydocks World Dubai on September 9 to manage the site. Management expects ship repair revenue to grow 14.7% annually over the next three years to reach Rs 2,500 crore. The company also plans a Phase-II expansion in Kochi. Additionally, Cochin will invest Rs 920 crore to build a second repair cluster in Gujarat in partnership with the Deendayal Port Authority, bringing the total project cost to Rs 1,570 crore.

    CMD Jose expects overall revenue to grow 12-15% in FY27, targeting ten vessel deliveries despite the near-term drag. Shipbuilding execution will accelerate as current vessels reach advanced construction stages and new factories become operational. Additionally, Cochin is the preferred bidder for five next-generation survey vessels worth Rs 5,000 crore, with management expecting to finalise these contracts soon.

    Following the weak margin guidance, ICICI Direct downgraded the stock to a ‘Hold’ rating and cut its target price to Rs 1,590, implying a 13.7% upside. However, the brokerage maintains a positive long-term view. Analysts believe that faster project execution across the defence and commercial segments, paired with robust new order inflows, will ultimately drive long-term revenue and profitability growth.

    5. Venus Pipes & Tubes:

    The stock of this iron and steel products company surged over 7% on September 18, hitting a new 52-week high of Rs 2,309 after its board approved a proposal to raise up to Rs 372 crore through a preferential issue of 22.3 lakh equity shares to 18 investors, including Ashish Kacholia, Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance Company, WhiteOak Capital Equity Fund and Ashoka India Equity Investment Trust PLC. The company plans to use the proceeds to repay debt. 

    Beyond deleveraging its balance sheet, the company is actively expanding into high-growth arenas like data centers, semiconductors, and nuclear energy. This strategic pivot is already bearing fruit: back in May, Venus Pipes bagged a Rs 185 crore Letter of Intent from a top-tier data center client to supply specialized stainless steel cooling spools. Scheduled for completion by December, this deal will boost the share of high-margin, value-added products in its portfolio.

    Backed by ongoing capacity expansions, leadership reaffirmed its FY27 targets of approximately 20% revenue growth and over 15% volume growth. Profitability is also set to climb, with EBITDA margins projected to expand from around 16% in FY26 to roughly 17% by FY28. The stock appears on a screener for companies having high Trendlyne momentum scores.

    ICICI Direct reaffirmed its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock. The brokerage highlighted strong medium-term visibility, driven by double-digit volume growth, an expanding footprint in data center cooling, and a richer mix of specialized offerings. However, analysts pointed out that international geopolitical friction remains a key monitorable, given that exports account for roughly 35% of overall company revenues.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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