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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    29 Aug 2026
    Market cues for this week: India's GDP growth may come in over 7%, but will markets celebrate?

    Market cues for this week: India's GDP growth may come in over 7%, but will markets celebrate?

    Market cues for next week

    India's economy looks set for another 7%+ quarter in GDP growth. Corporate earnings have also improved more than expected. Foreign investors are buying Indian stocks again.

    So of course the Nifty closed last week with its third straight weekly loss. It’s the kind of month that makes me think about Warren Buffett’s comment, that “the stock market is a manic-depressive”.

    The problem isn't India's growth story. How can it be: we are the fastest growing large economy right now. But there are a lot of other spoilers, like pricey oil, a cranky monsoon, global bond markets acting up, and an RBI that sounds less relaxed about inflation.

    Here's what matters for investors this week.

    1. A strong GDP print may come with a troubling footnote

    India's Q1 FY27 GDP numbers arrive on Monday. The Reuters poll expects growth of 7.1%, while Barclays is even more bullish at 7.5%, both ahead of the RBI's 7% estimate. Consumption and government spending are strong.

    Normally, a beat would be good news. Right? Right?

    But the RBI has complicated things.

    Minutes from its August meeting were noticeably more hawkish, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra raising the possibility of a policy “recalibration” if inflation keeps rising.

    The market cue: A GDP growth beat could in fact, force the RBI to raise rates, since the economy will look like it can easily absorb a rate hike. So the market may actually end up being less happy with a high GDP growth number.

    2. Oil came down, but no one is popping the champagne

    Brent was around $89 a barrel on Friday, down more than 5% over the week as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz improved. That's welcome news for oil-importing India.

    But Kotak Institutional Equities thinks that the market may be getting too casual about oil prices. US and Iran are in no mood to reach a deal, and another disruption in Hormuz could push crude higher.

    The market cue: One hopes that oil will keep falling. If it reverses and goes higher, expect airlines, paints, chemicals, logistics and other energy-sensitive businesses to feel it first.

    3. The monsoon is making headlines

    India is heading towards its weakest monsoon since 2009, according to weather department officials. Rainfall was 13% below normal and could finish the season 15% below average.

    September rains will be especially important because cotton, soybean, corn and pulses are maturing, and soil moisture sets up the winter crop.

    A poor finish for the monsoon in September will create two risks simultaneously: higher food inflation and weaker rural incomes. That's not great for an RBI already worrying about inflation.

    The market cue: Keep an eye on September rainfall forecasts for FMCG, two-wheelers, tractors and other rural-demand plays. This could matter a lot more to these stocks than another GDP beat.

    4. Foreign investors are buying India (and shorting it)

    Here's an interesting positioning signal.

    FPIs were buyingIndian equities in August. BNP Paribas notes that valuations have become more reasonable, while improving earnings are bringing foreign money back. But FIIs are sitting on around 1.86 lakh short contracts in Nifty index futures.

    So foreign investors seem to be liking some Indian stocks, but are less convinced about the overall index. If oil and global yields settle down, those hedges can become fuel for a short-covering rally. If oil and bond markets get worse, these shorts start to look smart.

    5. Don’t overreact to this Monday: the market may see some unexpected moves

    The MSCI index’s August rejig gets implemented after Monday's close.

    Estimated passive inflows include roughly $674 million intoEternal, $598 million intoLaurus Labs, $352 million intoLenskartand $310 million intoAdani Energy Solutions.

    Reliance could see roughly $523 million of outflows from its reduced weight.

    Heard on the street this week

    Investors and traders gossip like old aunties. Dalal Street is always abuzz with rumours and unconfirmed news. 

    The liveliest unverified story on Dalal Street this week is NSE trading on NSE. The rumour is that after NSE lists on BSE, it will try to get its own shares traded on the NSE platform itself through the “permitted to trade” (PTT) back door.

    The rumour started as a source-based Bloomberg and NDTV Profit report from roadshows. Exchanges cannot list on themselves, so NSE would first list on rival BSE, then ask SEBI to let the same stock trade on NSE screens anyway.

    That would split the volume BSE expects from India’s biggest IPO, and could eventually let NSE put its own stock into its own indices. BSE shares have already been sold on this buzz.

    HDFC Bankhit the headlines for the wrong reasons. India's largest private lender fell to a two and a half year low amid a US shareholder lawsuit, separate allegations of mis-selling through its Dubai operations and uncertainty over CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan's reappointment. Macquarie says a full three-year renewal for the CEO would remove one major overhang for HDFC Bank.

    Disclaimer:This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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    The Baseline
    28 Aug 2026
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 28, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 28, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Capri Global Capital:

    This lending company surged 15% over the past week after MD Rajesh Sharma said Capri Global expects its gold loan portfolio to grow around 40% this year. The firm plans to add 400 branches by December to support this expansion. Sharma said higher gold prices allow customers to borrow more against the same collateral while keeping loan-to-value ratios within a comfortable range.

    Gold loans have been a key part of Capri Global’s growth since the company entered the segment four years ago. The business now accounts for about 48% of assets under management (AUM). Its portfolio more than doubled in FY26 and grew 13% QoQ in Q1, even as gold prices corrected. The company is focusing on smaller-ticket loans, which have helped improve yields to 18.5%.

    The bigger opportunity is improving branch productivity. Capri had about 1,000 gold loan branches in Q1, with AUM per branch at roughly Rs 19 crore. This compares with around Rs 32.5 crore for Muthoot Finance and Rs 14 crore for Manappuram Finance. Sharma said existing branches can deliver around 25% annual growth even without higher gold prices, while new branches should provide an additional boost.

    Management expects gold loans to account for around 55% of AUM over the medium term, leaving room for its other lending businesses to grow alongside the main franchise. Housing AUM grew 42% YoY in Q1 while MSME and construction finance rose 24% and 40% respectively. During the latest earnings call, Sharma raised the annual AUM outlook by 6% and said, “We are on course to achieve Rs 50,000 crore by FY27 and Rs 65,000 crore by FY28”.

    Deven Choksey reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 316. The brokerage sees Capri Global at an inflection point as its gold loan business shifts from branch-led expansion to a more scalable, volume-driven model. However, it flags the relatively young gold loan book as a key monitorable and says the company still needs to prove that current returns can hold through a full gold-price cycle.

    2. Tata Power:

    The stock of this power & electric utilities company fell 3.3% on August 27 after the Singapore International Commercial Court dismissed its challenge against a $490 million arbitration award owed to Kleros Capital Partners. Unwilling to back down, the power utility plans to file an appeal within the mandatory 28 day window. 

    The legal battle traces back to Tata Power's proposed participation in Russia's Krutogorovo coal project. Kleros dragged the company into arbitration in November 2020, alleging contract breaches and confidentiality violations. By September 2023, the tribunal held Tata Power liable for contractual breaches, ultimately ordering the firm on July 1, 2025, to pay $490.3 million in damages plus interest and legal costs. 

    Beyond courtroom battles, the company continues to charge ahead in the renewable energy space. On August 24, its arm Tata Power Renewable Energy commissioned 190.5 MW of a solar project in Kalasar, Bikaner, Rajasthan, pushing total renewable utility capacity to 12.4 GW. Adding to this green push, the company installed over 61,000 rooftop solar units across Kerala, representing a cumulative installed capacity exceeding 273 MW across the state. 

    Looking ahead, Tata Power aims to more than sixfold rooftop solar revenue to Rs 30,000 crore by 2029 and double its market share to nearly 25%. MD & CEO Praveer Sinha expects to achieve the revenue target ahead of the earlier 2030 guidance, noting that rooftop solar revenue nearly doubled to Rs 4,800 crore last year.

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster projects Tata Power Q2FY27 net income to rise 20.8% on the back of robust domestic power demand. Analysts point out that Tata Power controls premier power distribution licenses across Delhi and Mumbai, while newly acquired Odisha discoms are already showing operational gains post takeover. The stock features in a screener of companies whose book value per share has improved over the past two years.

    3. Biocon:

    This biotech company rose 1.9% on Tuesday after its subsidiary Biocon Biologics won approval for its pegfilgrastim biosimilar in Japan. Pegfilgrastim prevents chemotherapy-induced loss of white blood cells, lowering the risk of serious infections and fever. Biocon will manufacture the drug, while Sandoz will exclusively promote, sell and distribute it in Japan.

    Biosimilars are cheaper versions of biologics, which are drugs made using living cells. They are designed to work as effectively as the original drug. The company already sells a pegfilgrastim biosimilar under the Fulphila brand in the US. Fulphila still holds about 20-25% of the US market after its launch in 2018.

    Biosimilars generated 66% of Biocon’s Q1FY27 revenue, and sales grew 16% YoY. Management expects growth to pick up in H2 as recent launches contribute more. Yesafili, which treats eye conditions linked to ageing and diabetes, entered the US market after Q1. Wider insurance coverage and distribution could support sales from two other US launches for osteoporosis and cancer-related bone complications.

    Biocon is also expanding insulin supplies after European regulators approved a second filling and packaging line at its Malaysia plant. The new line doubles capacity, with supplies expected to pick up in Q2. The generics business reported EBITDA of Rs 56 crore in Q1, against an operating loss a year earlier. Cost cuts and a better product mix drove the turnaround.

    The services business is the main drag. Syngene’s revenue fell 16% in Q1 due to reduced demand from a key biologics client. Its EBITDA margin fell ten percentage points to 15%. Executive Chairperson Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw said, “Performance should improve in H2, limiting the FY27 revenue decline to a single digit, with EBITDA margins returning to the mid-20s.”

    Motilal Oswal reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating and raised its target price to Rs 520. The brokerage expects revenue in both biosimilars and generics to grow about 16% annually through FY28. 

    4. Chalet Hotels:

    The stock of this hotels company climbed over 5% in the past week following management's ambitious plans to expand its luxury portfolio. Central to this growth is its premium brand, Athiva, launched last October to target affluent Indians and millennials. Managing Director Shwetank Singh highlighted the addition of two new Athiva properties in Pune and Hyderabad, which will bring 381 keys to these commercial hubs over the next 3 to 5 years. With these projects underway, the total inventory for the company, including its active pipeline, will expand to 5,500 keys.

    Even as Chalet pushed forward with expansion, its Q1 performance took a hit from geopolitical tensions in West Asia. Global travel disruptions led to a sharp slowdown in foreign tourist arrivals as international travelers delayed or cancelled trips due to safety concerns. Driven primarily by weakness in its real estate segment, Q1FY27 revenue dropped 42.6% YoY to Rs 2,582 crore. However, its operating revenue surpassed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 2.6% as management noted a domestic demand recovery in June. The stock features in a screener of companies that have outperformed their industry over the past month.

    Management maintained its guidance for stable demand and a recovery in H2FY27. Expansion plans remain on track, with Westin Powai renovations and the Vashi hotel rebranding expected to be completed in FY27. The Taj Delhi airport hotel’s planned 380-key addition and Cignus Powai Tower II are expected to commence operations in Q4FY27, while Athiva Goa is slated to open in FY28.

    Nomura maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating on Chalet Hotels, anticipating that improving hotel EBITDA margins will support a 2% upward revision in FY27 and FY28 EBITDA estimates. However, the brokerage cautioned investors to closely monitor occupancy ramp-ups, noting that 30% of the company's portfolio is currently affected by renovation and construction, making timely project delivery essential for sustained growth.

    5. Welspun Corp: 

    This iron & steel products manufacturer soared last week, hitting an all-time high of Rs 2,443.9. The surge followed a Rs 17,200 crore order to supply pipes from its US plant, pushing the total order book to about Rs 42,100 crore.

    ICICI Direct analysts noted that this contract provides multi-year revenue visibility and reduces the company's reliance on short-cycle orders. The deal will keep the US manufacturing facility running near full capacity, boosting regional profitability and operational leverage over the next two years.

    The recent surge builds on the stock's momentum after strong Q1FY27 results and FY27 outlook. Net profit surged three-fold, nearly 2.8x the Forecaster estimate. Cheaper raw materials and a one-time gain from a partial stake sale of its Saudi subsidiary, East Pipes Integrated Co, drove this earnings jump.

    Post results, MD and CEO Vipul Mathur commented on the outlook, saying, “We maintain our FY27 revenue growth guidance of 18%, with EBITDA rising 20%.” 

    Management expects the growth to be fueled by demand across geographies. LNG exports to the US, recovery in onshore & offshore oil pipelines, and rising power demand from AI data centres will boost US exports. Oil & gas investments by Aramco, desalinated water transportation projects and reconstruction opportunities due to the conflict will drive the West Asia business. Lastly, demand from energy, defence and other key sectors will support the Indian business.

    As these positive developments pushed the stock up 50.7% over the past month, insiders cashed in on the rally. Promoters Welspun Investments & Commercials and MD Vipul Mathur sold a 2.3% stake worth Rs 1,417 crore through a block deal.

    Following the mega order, Nuvama retained a ‘Buy’ rating and raised its target price to Rs 2,656. The brokerage expects strong project execution, expansion in West Asia, and upcoming capacity additions to drive long-term earnings growth. Analysts also expect the domestic line-pipe business to rebound sharply as new LNG terminals expand India's city gas distribution networks.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The RBI kept interest rates unchanged again this August, meaning FDs and debt funds are still offering attractive, risk-free returns. But the stock market is volatile. What is your current mindset?

    Aug. 10, 2026

    Poll

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    The Baseline
    27 Aug 2026

    From weak rains to rural spending: India’s next monsoon test

    By Anagh Keremutt

    India’s farmers are getting squeezed from two sides this year. The conflict in West Asia has increased energy and fertilizer costs, while a weak monsoon is raising risks for crop yields and farm incomes.

    A strengthening El Niño is adding to the pressure. As of August 24, cumulative rainfall was 13% below IMD’s 50-year average for the period. July offered brief relief after a sharper deficit in June. The national figure also hides wide differences between states, with some major crop-growing regions facing steeper shortfalls.

    “Deficient monsoons have had a bigger impact on food inflation than on rural demand so far,” Nomura said, cautioning that “these are still early days.”

    The early sowing shock largely eased after July’s rain allowed farmers to catch up on delayed planting. The shortfall in kharif planting narrowed from 25% at the end of June to 2% by mid-August. Now the worries have shifted to crop yields. Higher irrigation costs could squeeze farm incomes, and impact rural spending even though it remains stable for now.

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at how India’s uneven monsoon is changing risks for crops, farm incomes and rural spending.

    India’s monsoon recovery hides regional stress

    India’s monsoon got a much-needed recovery in July after a rainfall deficit of 35.4% in June. But the relief was short-lived, with rainfall slipping below normal again in August. The national average masks the wide regional differences. Central India was only 1% short of normal, while the South was 21% below average and the East and Northeast saw a deficit of 27%.

    These differences are sharper at the state level. Between June 4 and August 10, Bihar recorded a shortfall of 36%, while neighbouring Odisha saw a surplus of 28%. Punjab and Andhra Pradesh were each short by 35%.

    Farmers’ dependence on rain varies across regions. For example, Punjab accounted for 9.6% of India’s rice output in 2024-25, but almost all of its rice fields were irrigated. That gives farmers some protection from weak rainfall, while increasing their dependence on groundwater, electricity and diesel.

    Madhya Pradesh saw a 16% rainfall deficit. With less than 10% of the crop area under irrigation, weaker rains pose a bigger risk in a state that produces 35% of India’s soybean and 15% of its maize.

    Nomura gives more weight to rainfall in regions that account for a larger share of each crop’s production. By that measure, jute is the most exposed, with key growing regions getting 27% less rainfall than normal. Rice and coarse cereals follow at 14% and 13%, while pulse-growing regions are 9% below normal.

    The early-season sowing shock has eased. While overall kharif planting has largely recovered, rice and maize sowing are still 4% lower. Pulses and oilseeds have nearly caught up. The focus now is whether the crops in the ground get enough water to support yields as El Niño conditions strengthen.

    Rising input costs eat into farm incomes

    Around half of India’s farmland lacks irrigation, leaving these regions exposed during weak rainfall. Farmers turning to diesel pumps can see their costs rise as weaker rains force them to irrigate more.

    Costs were already rising amid the West Asia conflict. State-run oil companies hiked diesel prices four times in May, taking the cumulative increase to about 8.6%. Farmer organisations estimate that diesel accounts for 20-25% of cultivation costs. “Any rise in diesel prices increases costs as nearly every farm activity relies on diesel-run machinery,” said Puneet Singh, a farmer from Haryana.

    The conflict also raised fertilizer and raw-material costs, though the government has absorbed much of that increase to protect farmers.

    In Punjab, paddy farmer Dalbir Singh stressed over dry cracks that appeared in his fields during this season. Farmers like Singh can spend up to Rs 570 every hour as they turn to diesel generators to pump water.

    Rural income growth was already weakening. NABARD’s July survey showed that only 27.7% of rural households reported higher incomes from the previous year, the lowest since September 2024.

    Food prices are up 5.1% since April, compared with 1.9% over the same period last year and a five-year average of 4.6%. Sugar prices are 9% higher, while rice has also become more expensive. Higher retail food prices do not necessarily mean higher farm earnings, especially when input costs are rising faster than income.

    The latest increase in farm costs may not be fully visible in retail prices yet. Maximo Torero, chief economist at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, says commodity-price shocks typically take three to six months to feed into retail food prices.

    Rural spending holds up, for now

    Higher farming costs and weaker income growth haven’t affected rural spending yet. Both tractor and 2-wheeler sales grew in strong double digits in Q1FY27. Rural households entered the kharif season with support from the previous harvest and easier access to credit.

    Bajaj Asset Management notes that consecutive years of deficient rainfall generally have a greater impact on farm incomes and rural consumption than a single delayed monsoon. India’s large foodgrain stocks also provide a buffer against a sharp rise in cereal prices.

    Part of this resilience comes from the previous crop cycle. Rajesh Jejurikar, CEO of M&M’s Auto and Farm Sector, said, “Rabi cash flows have been healthy, with wheat procurement improving 19%.” Labour shortages are also pushing farmers towards greater mechanisation. The company’s tractor sales rose 18% in Q1.

    Escorts Kubota expects the tractor industry to grow in the mid-single digits in FY27, even after volumes rose about 19% in Q1. Management says monsoon distribution and festive demand will be key over the coming months.

    Credit is also providing a cushion. Hero MotoCorp’s Chief Business Officer Ashutosh Varma said, “Our retail finance penetration rose to nearly 65% in July as access to credit improved.” He expects financing to provide further support during the festive season.

    Spending on everyday goods is holding up too. Dabur Global CEO Mohit Malhotra said Nielsen data showed rural FMCG growth outpacing urban by 1.7 percentage points. While there was no immediate sign of weakness, rising inflation remained a concern.

    Rural demand is holding up for now. The real test will come after the kharif harvest, when this season’s yields and farm incomes start shaping food prices and consumption.

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    The Baseline
    26 Aug 2026
    SEBI curbed F&O, but investors found another way to borrow

    SEBI curbed F&O, but investors found another way to borrow

    F&O remains a tough game

    SEBI’s crackdown on futures and options appears to be working. Trading activity has fallen and overall losses have come down.

    Personally, the regulator’s actions nudged me away from what seemed to be a rigged game. If you’re someone who trades actively, you would know how difficult it is to churn out consistent profits in the F&O market.

    SEBI’s report card on Indian traders is now out, and it highlights the same problem. Nearly nine in ten individual traders still lose money. Fewer people participated with the new SEBI curbs, but those who stayed, on average, lost more.

    The market, being a zero-sum game, had a few big winners. Proprietary trading firms earned about Rs 44,000 crore before costs, while foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) made another Rs 14,000 crore. Almost all these profits were earned by entities that used algorithms.

    So have the curbs cut the speculative risk among retail traders? Or has this crowd simply moved to a different segment in the market?

    Let’s dive in.

    Total losses by retail traders fall in FY26, driven by participation decline

    Individual traders in India booked a net loss of Rs 91,685 crore in equity derivatives in FY26, down 18% from a year earlier. The fall in aggregate losses, however, does not necessarily mean traders are doing better. The average loss among the traders remaining in the market increased 2.4% in FY26.

    The regulator introduced multiple measures from late 2024, reducing weekly index-option expiries, increasing contract sizes, tightening position limits, and also introducing other safeguards to limit excessive retail participation.

    Participation has fallen since the measures were introduced. The contraction was particularly visible in index options a few months after the measures took effect in November 2024. NSE’s monthly index options turnover fell about 27% from its average in the first eight months of FY25.

    SEBI's measures have helped drive the first annual decline in active individual traders in the equity derivatives segment since FY16. Active traders fell 18% in FY26, while new entrants declined 40% and exits increased 76%.

    Despite the curbs, retail traders’ influence in equity derivatives trading has grown. Individuals still account for nearly 31% of trading in these contracts, up from 26% last year, according to NSE data.

    The more you trade, the higher the loss

    The latest SEBI behavioural study provides a revealing picture of who is losing money. It suggests that frequency of trading matters more than the number of people participating.

    Around 40% of traders were active for more than a hundred days last fiscal year, but they accounted for almost 95% of turnover. Most of them closed the year in the red. Traders who traded for fewer than 100 days incurred less than a tenth of the losses suffered by those who traded more frequently.

    Securities transaction tax (STT) hikes have steadily raised the breakeven cost for traders. Since April, STT on futures has further increased from 0.02% to 0.05%, while the rate on options has risen from 0.10% to 0.15%. For frequent traders, these higher costs can quickly eat into returns and make it even harder to break even.

    The odds only got worse for those who doggedly pursued their trading journey. The share of loss-making traders rose from 91% among those who traded for one consecutive year to 94% after two years, 96% after three years and 97% after four years. Odds only got better marginally for those who stayed consistent for five consecutive years; 95% recorded cumulative losses.

    F&O slows, but MTF picks up

    The slowdown in individual F&O trading also affected brokerage revenue. SEBI estimates that individual trades paid about 9% less in derivatives brokerage in FY26. Borrowing to buy shares, meanwhile, has risen.

    Under the margin trading facility (MTF), brokers fund part of a client’s share purchase and charge interest until the client repays the loan. India’s outstanding MTF loans reached a record Rs 1.5 lakh crore by mid-August, roughly six times the FY23 level.

    “India’s MTF boom is linked to fintechs making debt easier to access and the ‘fear of missing out’ among investors,” said Manishi Raychaudhuri, CEO of Emmer Capital Partners.

    F&O produces brokerage when clients trade. MTF provides interest income for as long as the funded position stays open, giving brokers an additional source of income when trading fees soften.

    In FY26, Angel One’s brokerage income fell 7%, while client funding interest rose over 38%. Motilal Oswal’s brokerage income declined 11%, while pure MTF interest grew 27%. IIFL Capital Services reported a 16% drop in its brokerage and allied income, while MTF interest jumped 31%.

    SEBI's regulatory actions, however, are not the main drivers for MTF growth. Between FY23 and FY26, Angel One’s client funding interest more than tripled, raising its share of total revenue from 8.5% to 16.3%. Motilal’s MTF interest jumped more than fivefold, lifting its revenue share from 5.4% to 16%.

    We can’t say for sure that traders quitting F&O are jumping straight into margin trading. But brokers are earning more by lending investors cash to buy stocks. Brokerage remains a major source of revenue, while funding interest is not pure profit but a substantial addition even though brokers have to borrow money to finance their MTF loans.

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    The Baseline
    21 Aug 2026
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 21, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 21, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Aditya Birla Capital:

    This financial services company gained around 3% on Thursday after announcing its entry into the gold-loan business. It plans to open more than 200 dedicated branches by the end of FY27 and scale the network to around 1,000 branches over the next three years, expanding its presence across urban and semi-urban markets.

    Gold loans are emerging as one of the fastest-growing retail credit segments, with NBFC (non-banking financial company) lending against gold jewellery rising 69% YoY in June 2026. Higher gold prices have also boosted the value of jewellery that borrowers can pledge, supporting demand for gold-backed loans. The new business will add a secured retail product to the company’s lending portfolio. Still, execution remains a key monitorable as it takes on established players such as Muthoot Finance and Manappuram Finance.

    The expansion comes as its existing lending businesses continue to grow. Q1 performance beat Forecaster estimates, with revenue rising 29% and net profit jumping 40%. The overall lending portfolio grew 32%, driven by strong growth in both the NBFC and housing-finance (HF) businesses. Asset quality remained stable, with provisions for bad loans edging down from a year earlier.

    Housing finance is emerging as a growth driver, as profit before tax from the segment doubled after asset under management (AUM) rose 50%. HF CEO Pankaj Gadgil said the business is “looking at moving (to double) the AUM close to 1 lakh crores in the next 6 to 8 quarters.” To achieve this, the firm plans to add around 200 branches this fiscal year, while keeping operating costs broadly range-bound despite continued investments in the network.

    Aditya Birla Capital also raised Rs 4,000 crore in fresh capital during Q1, with 87.5% allocated for growth in its NBFC business. Management said the capital should support the NBFC’s growth requirements over the next three years, providing funding headroom as it expands into gold loans and other retail products.

    Motilal Oswal reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 480. The brokerage expects the company’s expanding customer base and broader product suite to drive cross-selling, with consolidated profit projected to grow at around 28% annually over FY27-28.

    2. Acutaas Chemicals:

    This pharmaceutical company rose 6% on Tuesday after it won approval under the Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme for its Electrolyte Additives manufacturing business. Acutaas is investing Rs 256.5 crore in the project and could receive up to Rs 30 crore in government incentives.

    Electrolyte additives are chemicals used in batteries to improve their performance and stability. The company has begun commercial supplies of two such products from its new 4,000-tonne plant. It is also adding another electrolyte additive, which already has a signed customer contract and is expected to ramp up in FY28.

    In Q1FY27, revenue rose 59% YoY to Rs 329.7 crore, led by a 77% jump in advanced pharmaceutical intermediates revenue. Growth was driven by higher sales of existing and newer pharmaceutical intermediates and its contract development and manufacturing (CDMO) business. Net profit surged 70%, helped by a better product mix and operating efficiencies.

    The company is targeting Rs 1,000 crore in CDMO revenue by FY28. President of Strategy Abhishek Patel said, “We expect four new CDMO products to start contributing revenue from the second half of this year. Each has a peak annual revenue potential of Rs 50-100 crore.”

    Specialty chemicals revenue, however, fell 10.6% as the company phased out lower-margin commodity chemicals. Management expects growth in semiconductor chemicals, battery chemicals and newer specialty products to more than offset the decline in commodity chemicals this year. Acutaas is also expanding its semiconductor chemicals business through Indichem, its South Korean joint venture. Construction of the plant is ahead of schedule, with revenue expected from the next financial year.

    Following Q1 results, Deven Choksey maintained its 'Accumulate' rating on the stock with a higher target price of Rs 3,567. The brokerage expects contract manufacturing, battery and semiconductor chemicals to support growth as the company moves towards higher-value products. It expects net profit to grow at a CAGR of 28% through FY28.

    3. Welspun Living: 

    Thishome-textile company gained 18% over the past week after announcing itsQ1FY27 results on August 13. Revenue rose 24% YoY, beatingForecaster estimates by 4%, while net profit jumped 84%. Higher sales volume and a more profitable product mix drove this growth.

    The US accounts for ~60% of Welspun’s revenue, with the pillow business emerging as a major growth driver. Revenue of the pillow business more than doubled in Q1 as capacity utilisation at the company’s Ohio factory reached ~81% and its Nevada plant began operations. Management expects pillow revenue to double to around $60 million in FY27. 

    Profitability is also improving in the flooring business, where EBITDA margin reached 10.4%, its highest in over two years. Management attributed the improvement to higher sales of soft flooring products, expansion into new markets, and tighter cost control. To support higher volumes, Welspun is also upgrading its existing plants. CFO Manish Bansalsaid, “We are targeting roughly around Rs 400 crore to Rs 500 crore of capex. And that is for automation, modernisation, and debottlenecking.”

    The UK has become another potential growth market after the India-UK free trade agreement took effect in July. They import an estimated $5–7 billion of home textiles annually. The deal puts India on equal tariff terms with Pakistan, which supplies over half of the UK’s home-textile imports. Welspun already has retailer relationships in the UK and an established presence through Christy, its premium home textiles brand, helping it pursue new orders without building a distribution network from scratch.

    A key near-term challenge is flooding at its Vapi facility, which management expects to affect Q2. However, production partially resumed within a week, with output rerouted to other plants. MD & CEO Dipali Goenkasaid, “I can tell you that in Q3 and Q4, we are going to restore growth. So, for the full year, Welspun Living will continue to deliver double-digit growth.”

    Post results, Motilal Oswalmaintained its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 215. The brokerage expects Welspun’s emerging businesses to contribute more over the next two years, alongside the recovery in its core home-textile business. It also raised its FY27 and FY28 earnings estimates on better growth visibility. 

    4. Bharti Hexacom:

    This telecom services company rose 1.6% over the past week after reporting its June-quarter results. Q1FY27 revenue rose 11.8% YoY, driven by growth in the mobile services segment. Meanwhile, net profit rose 23.2%, supported by higher average revenue per user (ARPU) and an improving premium subscriber mix. However, net profit came in 15.7% below Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates due to softer subscriber additions during the quarter. The stock features in a screener of companies that have shown relative outperformance compared with their industry over the past month.

    New smartphone data subscriber additions slowed to 3.4 lakh in Q1, down from roughly 5 lakh in the previous quarter. Management explained this as typical seasonal behaviour, noting that customer sign-ups usually dip in the first half of the year before picking up speed in the second half.

    Accounting for roughly 8% of its parent Airtel’s total subscriber base and regional footprint, Bharti Hexacom benefited directly from Airtel’s strategy of phasing out budget prepaid plans and nudging users toward premium tiers. This strategic shift helped drive its ARPU up to Rs 259, compared to Rs 246 in Q1FY26. While management noted that an extra calendar day in the quarter provided a minor tailwind, top-line growth was fueled by heavy data consumption, structural upgrades, and widespread adoption of premium plans.

    In a notable milestone, Bharti Hexacom’s data engagement surpassed that of Airtel. Its subscribers used an average of 36.2 GB of data per month, exceeding Airtel’s national average of 34.4 GB. Management noted that it remains focused on 5G densification and scaling the Homes & Offices Service business. 

    Motilal Oswal retained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock and raised its target price to Rs 2,050. The brokerage projects customer revenue and EBITDA to grow at CAGRs of ~14% and ~18%, respectively, over FY27-29, driven by an expected ~15% tariff hike in Q3FY27, led by continued premiumisation and market share gains.

    5. Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals:

    This consumer electricals company rose 2.7% on Thursday after laying out its long-term growth plans at its Investor Day. Crompton aims to double revenue over the next four years, with new businesses such as solar pumps, rooftop solar and wires expected to play a bigger role. These categories currently contribute little to revenue but could eventually grow to account for around 20% of sales.

    The core business is also moving towards higher-value products. In Q1FY27, revenue rose 12% YoY, and profit increased 15%, despite supply disruptions and commodity inflation. Its electrical consumer durables business grew 11%, led by sales of premium BLDC fans. CFO Kaleeswaran Arunachalam said, “The BLDC journey for us is probably beginning,” adding that there is a “long, long leg room” for growth.

    Solar rooftop could become one of the more immediate contributors from the newer businesses. Crompton has built an order book of around Rs 500 crore within four months of entering the business. Commenting on execution, MD & CEO Promeet Ghosh said, “This quarter and the next quarter are where I would expect a huge bulk of that order book to get executed.” With around 80% of the market still unorganised, the company is betting that its existing brand, distribution and service network can help it gain share.

    However, execution will depend partly on how well Crompton manages supply chains and raw material costs. The company lost around Rs 200 crore in primary sales in Q1 due to supply disruptions, although management said most of the issues had stabilised by June-end and had returned to normal in July. To offset higher input costs, the firm used price hikes alongside its cost-management programme. Management said around 80% of inflationary costs had already been passed on, while cost savings and operating leverage helped improve EBITDA margin by 20 bps.

    Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 340. It expects revenue and net profit to grow at 13% and 21% annually over FY27–28. The brokerage also expects Crompton’s strong free cash flow to support expansion without adding pressure on its balance sheet.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    20 Aug 2026

    India’s IPO market: From listing gains to long-term performance

    By Anagh Keremutt

    India’s IPO boom has lost steam this year as geopolitical tensions and cautious investors prompted companies to rethink their listing plans. But demand for the issues that did launch remains strong, with recent mainboard IPOs drawing healthy investor interest.

    Several companies deferred their listing plans, while others put their IPO plans on hold. Zepto, for instance, had planned to raise Rs 8,010 crore through an IPO but has now opted to raise an eighth of that sum privately from existing investors. The move came after domestic mutual funds pushed back on the $4-5 billion valuation Zepto was seeking.

    “A slower IPO market has led to a transition period of pricing discipline. This is the beginning of the next IPO boom,” said Bharat Lahoti, President and Co-Head of Factor Investing at Edelweiss.

    So, are India’s IPOs still worth betting on?

    Average listing gains in mainboard IPOs fell to 8.7% in 2026 from 31.8% in 2021, even as most stocks listed this year are trading above their issue prices.

    The sectors driving IPO activity offer a glimpse into where companies see growth and need fresh capital. There’s also a divergence between SME and Mainboard performance. While SME (small & medium enterprises) IPOs yield higher listing pops on average, their performance after listing leaves much to be desired. And strong demand at the IPO stage does not always translate into strong post-listing returns.

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at how the assessment of a ‘good’ IPO in India is evolving.

    Booming sectors fuel the IPO rush

    The IPO boom post pandemic has been a diversified one, with companies from sectors such as banking and finance, industrials, software, and consumer durables launching in the public markets to raise capital. In contrast, telecom, oil & gas, and media have seen fewer listings in recent years.

    Each year, one or two industries tend to dominate listings. In 2024, construction & engineering firms accounted for more listings as infrastructure spending picked up. A year later, electrical-equipment companies led the pack as they raised capital to expand capacity amid rising power demand and investment in the grid.

    This year, textiles has led with four IPOs so far. Recent trade agreements with the US, UK, EU, New Zealand and other markets are expected to lower tariffs on textile exports, adding to the sector’s appeal. “The India-UK FTA is likely to increase apparel and textile exports by 20-25% every year,” said Naren Goenka, chairman of Bharat Tex Trade Federation.

    Textile companies started to invest heavily in new capacity as these trade agreements were getting finalised.

    Alpine Texworld’s IPO shows how rising global demand is prompting textile companies to expand capacity. Its weaving units operated at over 107% of installed capacity in FY26, while the newly launched spinning unit also reached 88.5% utilisation. The company raised around Rs 126 crore through its IPO and plans to use part of the proceeds to set up a new weaving facility, increasing its fabric production capacity by 28%.

    Aastha Spintex is another example. It will use 65% of its IPO proceeds to acquire Falcon Yarns for Rs 131.5 crore, more than doubling its spinning and spindle capacity.

    Internet software & services has also seen three listings this year, with companies seeking capital to tap growing demand for cloud and digital infrastructure. Amagi Media Labs, for instance, will invest over 30% of its IPO proceeds in technology and cloud infrastructure.

    Listing pops grab headlines, but are only half the story

    Smaller issue sizes and strong subscription demand often make SME IPOs attractive to investors chasing listing gains. But data suggests that these initial pops didn’t translate into stronger performance this year. 

    SME IPOs listed at an average gain of 10.3%, versus 8.7% for mainboard IPOs. But only 55% of SME listings are trading above their issue price, versus 79% of mainboard listings.

    Some investors chase SME IPOs for quick listing gains, giving less importance to what happens after the debut. But exiting these small issues isn’t easy. About 32% of SMEs that debuted at a premium this year ended below their opening price on listing day. Half of them also hit their lower circuit, restricting further trading that day.

    With limited institutional participation, liquidity plays a key role in how easily investors can enter and exit SME stocks. Shouraya Khadgawat, lead strategist of equities at Centricity WealthTech, said, “Low trading volumes can make it harder to sell a large holding without significantly affecting the stock price.”

    For instance, Defrail Technologies listed at a premium of over 28%, but hit the lower circuit on both the listing day and the following trading session. The stock now trades 4% below the issue price.

    The key, however, is what happens to the business after listing. So far this year, mainboard IPOs are up 29% on average, compared with 22% for SMEs.

    Omnitech Engineering listed on the mainboard at an 11% discount after its IPO was subscribed 1.14 times. The company’s borrowings had more than tripled over two years by FY25. Nearly 40% of the issue was an offer for sale by the promoter, adding to investors’ concerns.

    By FY26, the company’s debt burden eased despite higher borrowings. Rather than aggressively cutting debt, Omnitech restructured its existing debt and is investing for growth. In Q1FY27, revenue rose 61% and net profit surged 5.7 times, while the company said it was expanding capacity to service its growing order book. The stock now trades 150% above its issue price.

    Shadowfax Technologies followed a similar path. It listed at a 9.2% discount, but the stock has more than doubled from its issue price after profitability jumped. CEO Abhishek Bansal also raised the company’s FY27 revenue growth guidance from 27-30% to 38-40%.

    A weak debut, then, does not tell the full story. The listing price reflects what investors think of the business at the time of the IPO. What matters over time is whether the business can deliver on those expectations.

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    The Baseline
    19 Aug 2026
    Midcaps are rallying, but the Nifty stayed behind

    Midcaps are rallying, but the Nifty stayed behind

    By Tejas MD

    IPOs are having a moment. Twelve mainboard IPOs have listed in August so far, and all of them drew plenty of investor interest and strong listing gains. The appetite for stocks hasn’t disappeared.

    But you wouldn’t know it by looking at the Nifty 50.

    The index has not moved much over the past month, quarter, or even the past two years. This is despite India Inc delivering impressive revenue growth this June quarter - the fastest in 15 quarters. Higher oil prices have pushed up costs across industries, but earnings momentum is positive.

    Kuunal Shah, fund manager at Carnelian Asset Management & Advisors, says, “Earnings growth in India has improved over the last three quarters, and that should continue.” He expects earnings growth of 14%-15% for Nifty 500 companies in 2027 and 2028.

    So, if earnings have picked up and investors are still buying stocks, why is the Nifty 50 going nowhere?

    Let’s dive in.

    The Nifty 50 stayed flat, even as the rest of the market was moving

    One major culprit is driving the headlines of a muted stock market: India’s benchmark index, the Nifty 50.

    The Nifty 50's weekly average volume of 26.7 crore shares is more than a third below its 6-month average of 42 crore. This is a significant cooldown in largecap trading activity. The Nifty stayed flat in returns over the past year, while mid and small caps rose by double digits and hit new highs.

    Selling by foreign investors, while domestic investors favoured mid and small-caps, and weak performance from the biggest stocks drove this gap.

    The divergence is clear over longer time frames as well. 

    Largecap stocks have an FII money problem

    Foreign investors have been pulling money out of Indian equities, but domestic investors stepped in.

    Trendlyne’s FII/DII dashboard shows FIIs sold Rs 4.9 lakh crore in the cash market over the past year, while DIIs bought Rs 8.8 lakh crore (nearly 1.8× the amount FIIs sold).

    Ramesh Mantri, CIO of WhiteOak Capital, says, “Sustained FII selling has hurt largecaps disproportionately because foreign investors typically have a higher allocation to these companies.” 


    Where did the domestic money go? 

    Mid and small caps are obvious favourites. Midcap and smallcap funds attracted roughly Rs 5 for every Rs 1 that went into largecap funds. Largecap funds even saw an outflow in July, their first in nearly three years. 

    Dinshaw Irani, CEO, Helios Capital Asset Management says, "Divergence in earnings is also making small-caps and mid-caps more attractive to investors, despite their higher risk."

    Note that DII flows include MFs, insurance, EPFO and pension money. So pure fund category flows better capture active investor preference.

    The preference for mid and small caps also shows up in AUM. Over the past year, large-cap fund AUM grew just 6%, compared with 22% for midcaps and 24% for smallcaps. 

    Folio growth, which is another indicator of investor participation, favoured mid and small caps.


    Returns are also better for mid and small cap MFs. 

    Trendlyne’s Mutual Fund Dashboard shows that over the past year, midcap and smallcap MF categories gained 12% and 15%, respectively, compared with just 3% for largecap funds. But domestic institutions continued to buy large companies. 

    Returns explain the difference in enthusiasm

    The Nifty 50’s biggest stocks struggled over the past year. HDFC Bank fell 27%, and none of the index’s top five stocks gained in double digits.

    Midcaps moved in the opposite direction. All five of their biggest stocks gained in double digits, with Laurus Labs more than doubling. Smallcaps also performed well, with Delhivery the only one to remain flat.

    The concentration of the Nifty 50 makes this divergence more significant. As per the latest NSE indices fact sheets, Nifty 50’s top five stocks make up around 35% of the index, compared with just around 10% for the Midcap 150 and less than 7% for the Smallcap 250. So when a few heavyweights struggle, they can drag the entire index down.

    The difference is visible at the sector level too. Financial Services rose just 0.3% in the large-cap index, while the mid and small-cap index gained 26.3%. IT shows a similar split: large caps fell 7.9%, while mid and small caps rose 8.2%.

    Part of the reason is the pressure on large IT companies, as clients have become more cautious about traditional outsourcing. In financials, the difference has more to do with the stocks that make up the mid and small-cap index.

    IT was a major drag on large caps. TCS fell 24%, Wipro 27% and Infosys 23%, as clients became more cautious about traditional outsourcing and focused more on AI-led productivity.

    Mid-sized IT firms did better. Coforge and Persistent, with their stronger engineering businesses, were among the better performers.

    Financials also saw a big difference between large and mid/small caps. HDFC Bank, the biggest stock in the large-cap financials index, fell sharply and dragged the segment down.

    The mid and small-cap index has more non-lenders. BSE, MCX and PB Fintech make up a sizeable share, benefiting from rising activity in trading, investing and insurance. BSE rose 32% and MCX 84%.

    Where does that leave the Nifty 50?

    It’s not all bad news. The index has recovered some ground over the past quarter, helped by a rebound in IT. And after its underperformance, valuations have become more attractive: the Nifty 50 is now trading below its 1-year, 2-year and 5-year average PE.

    Midcaps continue to hit new highs, even though they trade below their historical average PE. They remain more expensive than the Nifty 50, while smallcaps look even pricier, with their current PE still above all three historical averages.

    Sachin Bajaj, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer at Axis Max Life, says, “Valuations of Indian markets at 19.7x FY27E and 17x FY28E are trending below long-term averages.”

    Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Smallcap 250 may have done better over the past year, but the Nifty 50 now offers a more attractive valuation. Closing the gap will depend on Nifty's heavyweight stocks rediscovering their mojo.

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    The Baseline
    18 Aug 2026
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - August 18, 2026

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - August 18, 2026

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Lenskart Solutions: 

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this eyewear retailer, with a target price of Rs 705, an upside of 12.2%. In Q1FY27, Lenskart's revenue grew 43% YoY, driven by strong sales in India and overseas, while higher customer spending on premium eyewear helped net profit reach Rs 221.8 crore. 

    Management sees significant room to add stores without hurting sales at existing outlets. Sales from established Indian stores increased 18.3% during the quarter. Lenskart added 132 stores, bringing its global total to 3,459. It has identified more than 6,100 PIN codes where it does not yet have a presence, and plans to open more than 3,000 stores in existing markets. Analysts Aditya Bansal and Avinash Karumanchi note that the company targets all price segments effectively: premium lines generate 20% of sales, while manufacturing efficiencies have made its entry-level Rs 500 range profitable.

    Bansal and Karumanchi forecast annual revenue and net profit to grow by 25% and 50%, respectively, over FY27–28. As frame manufacturing moves in-house and supply chains are streamlined, margins should get a boost. The analysts have also raised their FY27–28 operating profit estimates by up to 5%.

    2. Fine Organic Industries:

    Anand Rathi maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this chemicals manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 6,000, an upside of 17.8%. In Q1FY27, the company’s revenue grew 18% YoY, led by stronger pricing and robust exports, which made up 60% of sales. Net profit also rose 18%. Analysts Nitesh Dhoot and Tanvi Warekar highlight that Fine Organic protected its profitability by passing rising raw material, power, and transport costs on to customers.

    Management expects flat near-term volumes because most factories operate near full capacity. While the Patalganga plant offers extra room, the next major growth driver will be the new Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority Special Economic Zone (JNPA SEZ) facility, scheduled to start up in late FY28. Fine Organic is also constructing its first manufacturing plant in the US, with the first phase forecasted to be operational in 2027.

    Dhoot and Warekar estimate profits to surge from FY28 as new plants start contributing. Fine Organic currently has Rs 1,400 crore in cash and anticipates generating an additional Rs 750 crore over FY27–28. The analysts believe this cash flow will fund the India and US expansion without requiring heavy debt.

    3. Akums Drugs & Pharmaceuticals: 

    ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this pharma major, with a higher target price of Rs 850, implying a 14.1% upside. The company showed solid Q1FY27 results. Revenue grew 13.9% YoY, led by traction in the contract development & manufacturing organisation (CDMO) and domestic branded formulations segments. Net profit soared 57.5%, fueled by inventory destocking and richer margins in trade generics and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).

    Management expects sales to increase at a double-digit rate over the next two years. Analysts Abdulkader Puranwala and Nisha Shetty believe growth will be supported by new contracts in Zambia and Europe, with shipments scheduled to begin by Q3FY27. Akums has also acquired Oriflame India’s colour cosmetics manufacturing facilities, enabling it to expand into skincare, cosmetics and wellness products.

    The analysts note that exports and higher-value products should improve profitability. Management also anticipates the European and Zambian contracts to earn better margins than its domestic business. Exiting smaller non-core businesses should also support profits. They estimate revenue to grow by around 14.4% annually and net profit by 37.7% annually over FY27 and FY28.

    4. Ipca Laboratories: 

    Emkay reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this pharma manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 1,950, implying a 3.6% upside. Ipca delivered strong Q1FY27 earnings as revenue grew 20.2% YoY, boosted by domestic formulations, generics, and branded products sales. Net profit surged 72.3%, thanks to a high-value product mix. 

    Management has raised its FY27 revenue growth target to 15% as demand remains healthy across markets. Sales at Unichem, its US business, are also improving, easing concerns about US growth. Analysts Shashank Krishnakumar and Mohd Suheb Alam highlight plans to invest Rs 700–800 crore to expand manufacturing capacity for finished medicines, biological drugs and key ingredients used to make medicines.

    Krishnakumar and Alam believe profitability will improve as higher-value products and exports contribute more to sales. They also expect revenue to rise faster than raw material and employee costs. They forecast revenue to grow by around 10.2% annually and net profit by 16.2% annually over FY27–29.

    5. Pitti Engineering: 

    Deven Choksey maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this small-cap electrical equipment manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 1,258, an upside of 21.5%. In Q1FY27, revenue rose 15.9% YoY, thanks to demand across its core businesses. Railways generated 28% of revenue, power generation brought in 15%, and industrial applications contributed 12%.

    Management anticipates 17–18% volume growth over the next few years as it targets new businesses in mining, oil & gas, data centres, and specialty industrial markets. A recently completed expansion of sheet metal, machining, and castings production will boost H2FY27 output, supporting its annual revenue target of up to 3,300 crore by FY27. Pitti is also investing Rs 290 crore in a new Hyderabad plant, which is scheduled to start operations in Q1FY30.

    Analyst Manik Jain projects profits to rise faster than revenue as Pitti makes more higher-value finished and assembled components. He believes new capacity and better use of existing factories should also support profitability. Jain estimates annual revenue and net profit growth of 14.1% and 26.8%, respectively, over FY27–28. He raised his FY28 earnings estimate by 6% and expects EBITDA margins to reach up to 17.5% by FY28.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    14 Aug 2026

    How India’s top CEOs got paid in FY26

    By Anagh Keremutt

    Indian companies faced rising costs in FY26, with supply disruptions and volatile crude oil prices weighing on margins towards the end of the year. Several firms responded with price hikes, while others absorbed the higher costs to protect demand.

    But how much of that pressure reached the corner office?

    The median CEO compensation rose 5% to Rs 10.5 crore in FY26, the slowest growth since COVID-19. Anandorup Ghose, Partner at Deloitte India, said CXO pay decisions in India have become more measured. “With Indian equities underperforming over the past 12-18 months and market risks rising, boards have kept pay hikes in check,” he added.

    Performance-linked bonuses and stock awards made up a huge chunk of many executives’ pay. Swiggy's Group CEO Sriharsha Majety received Rs 550 crore in FY26, seven times his previous year’s compensation. Nearly all of it came from exercising stock options during the year.

    While IT CEOs topped the pay charts, some executives took home a much larger share of their companies’ profits. Bank CEOs earned relatively little compared with the profits of the country’s biggest lenders.

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at some of India’s highest-paid CEOs across industries in FY26.

    IT CEOs cash in on stock rewards

    Software companies typically pay their CEOs some of the highest salaries in India. In FY26, stock-linked rewards made up a large part of that pay.

    Persistent Systems CEO Sandeep Kalra received the highest pay among IT CEOs in FY26, with his compensation equivalent to about 20.8% of the company’s net profit. His total compensation of Rs 388.6 crore was 162% higher than the previous year. Excluding exercised stock options, Kalra’s core cash salary rose 43%.

    Salil Parekh of Infosys received a total remuneration of Rs 82.6 crore, up 2.4% YoY. His base pay, retirement benefits and performance-based bonus accounted for 38.6% of his total pay. The larger chunk of his pay came from stock awards exercised during the year. Under Parekh’s leadership, Infosys secured numerous large deals during the year, half of which were new deals.

    Wipro’s CEO Srinivas Pallia took home Rs 49.6 crore in FY26, about 0.4% of the company’s profit. His pay included a fixed salary of Rs 29 crore, with the rest from performance-based rewards.

    Some CEOs took a bigger slice of profits

    CEOs in personal products, real estate, pharmaceuticals and auto sectors earned higher pay packages relative to their companies’ FY26 profits. Some executives received significant pay hikes.

    FMCG company Marico paid its CEO Saugata Gupta Rs 47.3 crore, accounting for 2.7% of the company’s annual profit. His total pay rose 20.7% from the previous year, with more than half coming from exercised stock options.

    Sudhir Sitapati, MD & CEO of Godrej Consumer, took home Rs 31.5 crore, about 1.7% of the company’s annual net profit. His remuneration, however, fell 10.2% from the previous year. The company's stock tanked earlier this week after Sitapati abruptly resigned, shortly after his tenure was extended by another five years.

    Dabur paid CEO Mohit Malhotra Rs 15.4 crore. Despite taking on the Global CEO role, Malhotra’s pay rose just 5% during the year, slightly below the median hike.

    Mahindra Lifespace’s Amit Sinha earned Rs 36 crore, about 12% of the company’s profit. Stock awards from the parent company, Mahindra & Mahindra, accounted for three-fourths of his total pay. Under Sinha’s leadership, the company has expanded its development pipeline fivefold since he took the helm in FY23.

    Gaurav Pandey of Godrej Properties received Rs 23.2 crore, four times his pay in the previous year. Most of the increase came from his performance bonus. During the year, the company achieved its highest-ever booking value, up 16%, while Pandey’s compensation amounted to 1.3% of the company’s profit.

    Kiran S Divi of Divi’s Laboratories received Rs 34.8 crore, 96% of which came from profit-linked incentives. 

    Dr. Satyanarayana Chava, CEO of Laurus Labs, received Rs 24.8 crore, or 2.8% of the company’s annual profit. His pay surged 88% from the previous year, with a significant portion coming from bonuses as the company’s EBITDA jumped 64%.

    CEO Pranay Godha received an 11% pay hike, taking his compensation at Ipca Laboratories to Rs 10 crore. The increase came as the company’s net profit rose 51%.

    JK Tyre paid CEO Anshuman Singhania Rs 39 crore, about 5% of the company’s annual profit. Three-fourths of his pay came from commissions linked to profitability. The company’s profit surged 50% in FY26.

    Ashok Leyland CEO Shenu Agarwal earned Rs 18.2 crore, almost entirely as salary. His pay jumped 48% in FY26. The company also posted its highest-ever commercial vehicle sales, beating its previous record from FY19.

    Sona Comstar CEO Vivek Vikram Singh took home Rs 15 crore in FY26, nearly four times his pay a year earlier. A third of his pay came from performance-linked stock awards. When China restricted exports of rare-earth magnets, a key input for electric vehicle motors, Singh’s team redesigned Sona Comstar’s traction motors in just four weeks without missing customer commitments. He also helped plug a Rs 300 crore revenue gap after a major customer’s new model underperformed, bringing in 31 new programmes and three new customers.

    Bank CEOs earn a smaller piece of net profits

    CEO remuneration at the country’s top banks was less than 0.05% of their FY26 profits. For ICICI Bank’s CEO, the figure is higher when exercised stock options are included.

    HDFC Bank CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan took home Rs 15 crore, up more than 25% from the previous year.

    Sandeep Bakhshi, CEO of ICICI Bank, received Rs 10.6 crore. With stock awards exercised during the year, his total pay rose to Rs 39 crore.

    Axis Bank CEO Amitabh Chaudhry earned Rs 10.3 crore. Half of his pay was base salary, while 20% came from performance bonuses earned in previous years and paid out in FY26.

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    The Baseline
    14 Aug 2026
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 14, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 14, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Kalpataru Projects International:

    Thisinfrastructure company surged 6% over two trading sessions following itsQ1FY27 results on August 11. Net profit jumped 46% YoY, driven by a favourable business mix that improved margins. However, revenue grew by only 4% as labour shortages due to state elections, supply disruptions in the Middle East, and weakness in the Brazil business and road projects weighed on growth.

    KPIL closed the quarter with arecord Rs 66,607 crore order book, providing around 2.5 years of revenue visibility. High-margin segments –Transmission & Distribution (T&D) and Buildings & Factories – make up 73% of this backlog, boosting future profitability. On T&D, MD Manish Mohnotsaid, “We expect a ramp-up in transmission lines and substation capacity to meet rising electricity demand and support the renewable energy effort.” Management values the T&D domestic market at up to Rs 1.3 lakh crore annually over the next five years, which helps back their FY27 order inflow target of Rs 30,000 crore.

    The company wants to win larger, more complex contracts, and has been ramping up its capability to compete in this space. This opens doors to high-moat sectors like data centres, airports, underground metros, and High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) projects. Around Rs 3,000 crore ofcapex over the past four years has focused on strengthening KPIL’s execution capacity. The companyplans an additional Rs 800 crore of capex in FY27, and is setting up a rolling mill in Raipur to process more steel inputs in-house.

    International markets offer further growth. KPIL is bidding for up to $500 million oil and gas projects in the Middle East, and recently secured its first water-treatment order there worth Rs 344 crore. Conversely, it haspaused domestic water project bids to resolve over Rs 1,500 crore in outstanding payments. While regional conflicts and volatile commodity prices pose risks, management believes project reserves can absorb moderate cost increases.

    Post results, Motilal Oswalkept its 'Buy' rating, citing KPIL’s sharp debt reduction and improving earnings outlook. Net debt more than halved YoY, allowing it to fund future projects without straining its finances. Analysts expect net profit to grow at a CAGR of 18% between FY27-29. 

    2. Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX):

    This commodity exchange surged 10% over the past week after SEBI proposed allowing foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to trade physically settled non-agricultural commodity derivatives on domestic exchanges. 

    Currently, FPIs can only trade eligible, cash-settled non-agricultural contracts, so the proposal could open up bullion and base-metal contracts to a wider set of global investors. SEBI expects the move to improve liquidity and price discovery.

    FPIs account for only around 2.5% of MCX's average daily turnover right now, with the exchange adding 35 FPIs in Q1 to take the total base to around 220. This leaves room for participation to increase if the proposal takes effect. Following the proposal, UBS upgraded the stock to 'Buy' with a target price of Rs 3,800, citing the recent correction, strong Q1 volumes and the potential for higher FPI participation.

    The regulatory catalyst comes as MCX is already benefiting from a sharp rise in trading activity. Revenue from operations rose 88% YoY in Q1FY27, while net profit doubled. Option derivatives now account for 75% of fee income. Traded clients rose to 13.7 lakh as retail and institutional participation broadened. MCX retained more than 99% of the commodity futures market, with gold and silver making up about 77% of futures turnover.

    MCX is also broadening its product base to bring more participants onto the platform. MD & CEO Praveena Rai said, “Indices are a primary focus across bullion, metals and commodities, with multiple launches planned over the coming months.” Silver 100 Gram Futures and 10-gram gold contracts are gaining traction, while electricity derivatives are seeing higher participation and open interest. The exchange has also incorporated the Coal Exchange of India and is working on new metal and commodity index contracts. 

    Data services offer another longer-term monetisation opportunity. More than 50 AMCs have adopted MCX bullion prices for ETF and NAV valuation, while the exchange is working to widen adoption and launch new data products. MCX continues to invest in technology to support higher volumes, with processing capacity now above three billion transactions a day. The key risk remains a normalisation in volatility, which can weigh on trading activity.

    3. Titan Company: 

    Thisjewellery company rose 3% on Monday after itsQ1FY27 net profit beatForecaster estimates by 34.5%. Addressing concerns over the impact of the government’s announcements in May, Arun Narayan, CEO of Titan’s Jewellery division,said customers who postponed their jewellery purchases in May largely came back in June. Prime Minister Modi had urged Indians to postpone gold purchases to conserve foreign exchange reserves.

    Titan’s revenue grew 29.3% YoY to Rs 21,502 crore, led by jewellery, watches and eye care, while lower bullion and digital-gold sales partly offset that growth. Net profit jumped 62.9%, thanks to higher jewellery profits and a Rs 407 crore gain from higher realisations on existing inventory following the customs duty hike. 

    CFO Ashok Sonthalia cautioned against treating the gain as sustainable, saying, “We don’t want to take credit because at some point when these duties go down, we will have the opposite situation.”

    Jewellery remained the main growth engine, with domestic sales rising 38%. Tanishq, Mia and Zoya recorded strong growth, with sales at existing stores rising 33%. While buyer growth was modest, the average spend per buyer rose 31% as higher gold prices lifted purchase values. 

    Demand for premium analogue watches also supported growth, with revenue from Watches and EyeCare growing about 21%. Women’s Bags delivered strong double-digit growth, supported by store expansion and rising e-commerce penetration.

    While the management flagged softness in plain gold towards the end of July, buyer growth in studded jewellery has been picking up. The company expects its jewellery margin to stay around 11%. MD and CEO Ajoy Chawla said, “If gold prices remain subdued, a better product mix and higher-value jewellery could support margins.” 

    Motilal Oswalreiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a higher target price of Rs 6,000. The brokerage sees sales growing at a CAGR of 18% through FY28. It expects Titan to benefit from the shift towards organised jewellery buying, with its exchange programme offering another way to attract customers and gain market share. 

    4. PI Industries:

    The stock of this agrochemicals company fell 10.9% over the past week after it reported weak June-quarter results. Q1FY27 revenue fell 11.1% YoY to Rs 1,766.4 crore due to weak demand across both agrochemical and pharma divisions. Profits took an even deeper hit, plunging 38.9% to Rs 244.2 crore as inventory and other expenses climbed. Ultimately, net profit missed Trendlyne's Forecaster estimates by 19.5%, driven down by shrinking export volumes. The stock features in a screener of companies with declining cash flow from operations over the last two years.

    Management attributed the decline in export volumes to an ongoing global agrochemical slump, weak crop prices, and delayed delivery schedules from clients. Even though monsoon rains picked up sharply in July, moving from a 36.4% deficit at the end of June to a 1% surplus by July-end, domestic agrochemical sales still lagged behind last year's figures. Industry experts suggest this slowdown happened because farmers had already stocked up early or reduced planted acreage for certain crops at the start of the season.

    Despite weak global crop-protection demand, the company’s domestic agribusiness delivered 12% volume growth and 3% revenue growth. It continued to invest through the weak phase, strengthening its complex-chemistry and innovation capabilities. PI Industries launched a first-of-its-kind biological nematicide (pest-control product) in Brazil, Mexico and the US. Management reported positive feedback from Brazil and estimates the country’s total addressable market at around $750 million. It expects low-single-digit revenue growth and an EBITDA margin of around 24% in FY27.

    Deven Choksey retained its ‘Accumulate’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 2,833. The brokerage expects PI Industries to remain in a transition phase through FY27, with the pace of recovery in global agrochemical and custom synthesis and manufacturing (CSM) demand key to earnings momentum. It adds that the FY27 capex guidance of Rs 700-800 crore gives the company sufficient flexibility to continue investing through the downturn.

    5. Hero MotoCorp: 

    This two-wheeler firm’s stock surged 6.4% over four sessions after reporting Q1FY27 results on August 7. Revenue jumped 35.4% YoY and beat Forecaster estimates, led by demand across scooters, motorcycles, and exports. Net profit also beat estimates despite falling 17.2%. A richer product mix, price hikes, and lower promotional spending helped offset higher raw material and employee costs. 

    Lower GST rates boosted two-wheeler demand, especially across rural markets. This tax cut benefited price-sensitive entry-level commuter motorcycles, a segment where Hero dominates the industry. The EV business also gained traction, pushing market share to around 11%. Exports grew 63% as the company doubled its global footprint over the past two years. 

    Management expects the two-wheeler industry to deliver double-digit growth in FY27, creating room for volume gains. Hero is also adding capacity to meet the expected increase in demand. The company is planning a Rs 1,500 crore capex as it aims to double monthly ICE scooter capacity to 1.3 lakh units by the end of this fiscal year. They are also increasing EV capacity by 50% to 45,000 units. 

    CFO Vivek Anand maintained his margin guidance, despite EBITDA margin falling 110 bps to 13.3%. “We are optimistic of achieving our medium-term EBITDA margin guidance of 14-16%,” he said, adding that this will be achieved through ongoing cost-cutting initiatives. However, he warned that reaching this target will be challenging in the near-term due to persistent inflation. 

    Following the results, Motilal Oswal retained a ‘Buy’ rating with a higher target price of Rs 6,560, implying a 13.3% upside. The brokerage believes growing scooter market share, strong overall sales, and a diverse export footprint will drive revenue visibility. Analysts expect the firm to deliver annual revenue and net profit growth of 9-10% through FY28.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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