Trendlyne Blog: The Baseline, Latest on stock market and finance in India and the world.

18 Jun 2026, 10:54AM

India Inc tests the tolerance of consumers for higher prices

Walk into a neighbourhood kirana store and the small Rs 10 biscuit pack is the same but different. The price may not have changed, but the quantity inside has. As costs rise, FMCG companies are relying more on smaller sizes, lower discounts and selective price hikes to protect their margins.

Automakers are passing higher costs on to buyers, and telecom operators are preparing for another tariff hike.

Companies are pushing through higher prices even as across sectors, demand remains uneven. While sometimes it reflects confidence that consumers can absorb the increases, more often, companies have limited options in the face of rising costs and pressure on margins.

Analysts at The Knowledge Company estimate packaging costs have risen by 15-20% as crude oil prices rose. "Household staples from soaps to packaged foods face margin pressures as petrochemical input costs rise," the firm said.

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at how companies are responding to rising costs and what their pricing decisions reveal about demand across the country.

FMCG companies turn to price hikes amid rising costs

For the past two years, FMCG companies were focused on reviving demand. Urban consumption remained under pressure as wage growth slowed and households exhausted much of the savings built up during the pandemic. Executives spoke about improving consumption, but backed off from raising prices as they prioritised volume growth over passing on higher costs.

Most companies preferred to absorb the hit on their margins or rely on grammage cuts rather than risk hurting volumes. With input-cost pressures returning and consumption showing signs of recovery, companies are now finding it harder to keep absorbing higher costs, and are turning to price hikes.

Dabur has already implemented price increases of around 4% across parts of its portfolio. The company expects higher prices and volume growth to support double-digit growth this year, despite inflation picking up in the India business.

Hindustan Unilever has raised prices across several product categories by 2-5%. The company said the cost of materials used in its products has risen by up to 10%, and further price hikes may follow if inflation remains higher. Dove and Pears soaps have seen price hikes of about 5%, while Rin and Wheel detergents have become 5-11% more expensive.

Despite concerns around a weaker monsoon, HUL remains optimistic about rural demand. Chief Financial Officer Niranjan Gupta said, “We do not expect any impact on rural demand in the second half of FY27,” citing higher reservoir levels, strong grain stocks and government support prices for crops.

Prices of Marico's cooking oil, Saffola, have jumped by up to 11%, while the company also raised prices in its Value Added Hair Oils portfolio by around 7%.

Godrej Consumer has raised its soap prices by around 5%, detergent prices by about 7% and household insecticide prices by roughly 5%.

The company believes these measures will help offset most of the recent rise in input costs. "This is not an alarming level of inflation. Between pricing, some cost actions, and the portfolio mix, we should be able to recover most of it," said Managing Director Sudhir Sitapati.

Colgate-Palmolive has also raised toothpaste prices by up to 9%, extending the latest round of FMCG price hikes beyond soaps, detergents and edible oils.

Pidilite raised prices in both April and May, with Fevicol becoming 12-15% more expensive. Managing Director Sudhanshu Vats said the company's raw material costs have jumped by 40-50% and that it will continue passing some of those costs on to customers.

Research company Worldpanel by Numerator estimates volume growth in FMCG could slow to 3-4% amid an uncertain macroeconomic environment. Analysts at the firm said, “FMCG volume growth could soften if higher energy costs coincide with food inflation from weather stress and higher input costs.”

The Rs 10 pack is still sacred

Companies may be willing to raise prices on larger packs and premium products, but products priced at Rs 5, Rs 10 and Rs 20 remain untouchable. These packs are often the first choice for value-conscious consumers, especially when household budgets are under pressure.

"We are reducing grammage because we can't breach those price points," said Mohit Malhotra, Global CEO of Dabur India.

Britannia also says it is more comfortable raising prices on packs above Rs 10, while smaller packs may see grammage reductions instead. The company is weighing a mix of price hikes and smaller pack sizes as fuel and packaging costs remain higher.

Smaller packs account for 40-60% of sales across categories ranging from biscuits and soaps to shampoos and staples. "Sales of packs under Rs 20 have been growing 5 percentage points faster than larger packs as consumers find it harder to manage household expenses," said Parle Products Vice President Mayank Shah.

AWL Agri Business is expanding its range of edible oil packs starting from 200 ml. The company says consumers are increasingly opting for smaller purchases that allow them to spread expenses across the month rather than spend Rs 180-200 on a one-litre pack in a single purchase.

Some sectors have more pricing power than others

The latest round of price increases shows that some industries can pass on higher costs more easily than others. Automakers have announced another round of price hikes despite a challenging demand environment, while telecom operators are preparing for fresh tariff increases as revenue growth begins to slow.

Hyundai raised prices by up to Rs 12,800 from June 1, depending on the model and variant, citing higher input and operating costs.

Maruti Suzuki followed with hikes of up to Rs 30,000 across select models from June. "We were left with no choice," said Partho Banerjee, Senior Executive Officer for Marketing and Sales, adding that higher prices are never good for customers, especially first-time buyers.

Mahindra & Mahindra raised prices by up to 2.5% from April 6, while Tata Motors plans to raise passenger vehicle prices by up to 1.5% from July.

Meanwhile, attention in telecom is already shifting to the next tariff hike.

Industry revenue growth slowed to 10% in FY26 from 13% a year earlier as the impact of the July 2024 tariff hikes faded. Wireless revenue growth slowed to 7% in the March quarter, bringing another round of tariff hikes back into focus.

Analysts expect telecom operators to raise tariffs by around 15% from Q2FY27. For consumers, that could translate into roughly a Rs 50 increase for a standard 28-day mobile plan. Motilal Oswal estimates such a move could lift industry revenue by around 11% to nearly Rs 3 lakh crore in FY27.

Pricing power is returning across India Inc, but not every company is using it the same way. Some are raising prices directly, while others are relying on smaller packs and grammage cuts.

The Baseline

17 Jun 2026, 10:31PM

Stocks vs FD: has the extra risk been worth it?

By Tejas MD

For many investors, the past year raised an uncomfortable question: was taking the extra risk in the stock market worth it?

After months of weak returns and volatility, a safe fixed deposit has been looking a lot more attractive.

The past week has brought relief and some green into market returns, now that (after several false starts and bombings) a US Iran deal is finally on the table.

We are in an era where winning the social media narrative is necessary even for large nation states. So a modern war cannot have any losers. As The Wall Street Journal’s Benoit Faucon put it, “Both sides have framed the ceasefire as a victory.”

The deal has been celebrated by Indian markets, and the Nifty is up 3.4% in the past week. But a few good days does not answer the bigger question: if you had invested in India’s largest companies over the last 1, 3, or 5 years, would you have done better than someone who locked their money in an FD?

Within the market, why did some stocks multiply investor wealth while others failed to clear even the FD benchmark?

The answer reveals why this has become a stock picker’s market, where specific bets matter more than just staying invested.

Let’s dive in.

The time advantage: beating fixed deposit returns

Despite the recent bounce, India’s large-cap benchmark, the Nifty 100, has offered investors little to celebrate over the past year, slipping over 1%.

Over these 12 months, only 39% of its constituents managed to outperform a 7% FD return through price gains alone (excluding dividends).

But stretch your horizon to three or five years, and the success rate jumps to 74% and 77%, respectively. It is worth noting that the Nifty 100 index is rebalanced twice a year, weeding out the weaker players over time, but the broader trend holds up: patience pays off.

The three-year data also shows how uneven returns can be. Among the top 100 stocks, 30 became multibaggers, 54 generated positive returns of up to 100%, while 16 lost investor money.

So time is an advantage, but not a guarantee. Even over longer periods, a quarter of India’s biggest companies failed to beat a simple FD return. The real wealth creation came from identifying the businesses that pulled ahead of the pack.

What separates these winners from the laggards? Two patterns emerge.

The capex premium: the stock market rewards builders

The first pattern is reinvestment. Companies that put more money back into expanding their businesses often pulled ahead. We measured this through the ratio of capital expenditure to free cash flow (FCF) over the past three years.

Overall, corporate India has held back on investment. While India's listed company profits are nearing a record 6% of GDP, their capital expenditure has remained mostly unchanged over the years at around 3.6–3.7% of GDP.

The market however, rewarded businesses that are reinvesting today’s cash flows to create tomorrow’s growth engines. Two of the strongest performers in returns, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders and Eternal, lead this trend, with investors backing aggressive expansion plans even as heavy spending pushed their free cash flow into negative territory.

Companies that failed to deploy capital into new growth opportunities have seen their stock prices stagnate. While traditional capex is less relevant for asset-light IT companies, the broad takeaway holds: the market rewarded companies building for the future in India's high growth economy.

Asian Paints is the exception here, with its underperformance driven more by margin pressure from expensive crude oil and intense competition, rather than underinvestment.

The great rotation: changing sector leadership

The second driver behind the winners and losers is sector rotation. Over the past three years, market leadership has shifted away from traditional favourites like IT and FMCG towards sectors benefiting from India’s infrastructure and manufacturing push.

India's economy is changing fast as it grows, and investor interest has moved towards the new stars: defence, PSU manufacturing, utilities, power, and PSU banks. These companies have delivered stronger earnings growth, supported by government spending, a revival in capex, rising power demand, and healthier bank balance sheets.

Pradeep Gupta, Co-founder of Anand Rathi Group, says that this shift is backed by India’s ongoing investment cycle. “The first and most compelling bet is domestic cyclicals linked to capex and manufacturing. India’s growth continues to be domestically driven, supported by sustained public capital expenditure in infrastructure, defence, railways, energy transition, and logistics,” he said.

Stocks like Mazagon, Bharat Electronics, Adani Power, and Hindustan Aeronautics are capitalising on expanding order books and rising power demand.

Meanwhile, the stock market royalty of the previous decade has been left out.

IT stocks took a hit as global clients in the US and Europe tightened tech budgets, delayed projects and cut discretionary spending. Adding to the friction is the uncertainty around AI and what it means for traditional IT pricing power. Giants like TCS, Infosys, and Wipro have struggled to find their footing in the current landscape.

FMCGcompanies face a different challenge: expectations and volatile weather patterns. Stocks like Hindustan Unilever continue to trade at premium valuations, but earnings growth has not kept pace. Weak rural demand and inflation-hit consumers have made it harder to justify their multiples.

The lesson from the past three years is that a rising market no longer lifts everyone. Creating wealth now requires being selective, looking beyond index exposure and identifying where the growth, investment, and earnings momentum actually is.

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The Baseline

16 Jun 2026, 05:11PM

Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - June 16, 2026

By Ruchir Sankhla

1. Jindal Stainless:

Prabhudas Lilladhar upgrades this stainless steel manufacturer to a ‘Buy’ call, with a target price of Rs 821 per share, an upside of 15.7%. The stock has fallen 5.3% over the past month. Analysts Tushar Chaudhari and Satyam Kesarwani believe the recent decline in the stock price has created a good buying opportunity. They say investors are focusing too much on short-term issues such as lower nickel prices, higher fuel costs and rising imports from China, while overlooking the company’s long-term growth plans.

Jindal Stainless recently expanded its steel melting capacity to 4.2 million tonnes per year. This expansion includes a new Indonesian plant that secures better access to nickel, a crucial stainless steel raw material. The company is also investing heavily in downstream facilities and expanding its hot and cold rolling capacities. Management plans to push sales volume to 3.5 million tonnes by FY29, securing an 11% annual volume growth.

Chaudhari and Kesarwani predict that rising infrastructure spending and growing stainless steel use in transport and urban projects will drive demand. They project Jindal Stainless will deliver a 13% annual EBITDA growth over FY27–28.

2. Suzlon Energy:

ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this renewable energy provider with a target price of Rs 65, offering a 12.2% upside. Analysts Mohit Kumar and Mahesh Patil believe Suzlon Energy’s massive 5.5GW order book and scalable 'Suzlon 2.0' strategy guarantee strong revenue growth.

Management observes the energy market shifting toward complete clean power solutions. Suzlon is expanding beyond its traditional wind energy business to provide a broader range of renewable energy solutions, including in solar and energy storage. It is targeting a 40% share of India’s wind energy market from 33% and foraying into the co-development market, aiming for a 60% share by FY31. Management expects these initiatives to support annual revenue growth of around 25% over the long term.

Kumar and Patil note that Suzlon plans to diversify its project lineup to overcome supply chain challenges and construction delays. Management adds that securing new sites, supplying reliable equipment, and managing long-term assets directly fuel ongoing revenue increase. Analysts expect Suzlon to deliver annual revenue and net profit growth of 19.1% and 18.7%, respectively, over FY27-28.

3. Gabriel India:

Motilal Oswal initiates coverage on this auto components company with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 1,266, an upside of 11.4. Gabriel India is shifting from a traditional suspension parts maker to a mobility platform. Management is focusing on adding new product lines through acquisitions and partnerships. Integrating Dana Anand and Henkel Anand brings new products like driveline systems, which transfer engine power to the wheels, and automotive adhesives. Analysts Radha Agarwalla and Aniket Mhatre believe these moves will expand the company’s market reach and build a long-term growth path.

Gabriel India has also partnered with Inalfa, Jinhap, and SK Enmove to expand into sunroofs, lubricants, connectors, and electric vehicle (EV) parts. The company expects these businesses to increase the value of parts supplied per vehicle and generate new revenue streams.

Agarwalla and Mhatre note the company keeps strengthening its suspension market position by winning new orders and increasing supplies to major automakers like Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, and Mahindra & Mahindra. They project revenue, EBITDA, and net profit will grow at annual rates of 22%, 23%, and 55% over FY27-28.

4. Mahindra & Mahindra:

Geojit BNP Paribas retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this vehicle manufacturer with a target price of Rs 3,508, an upside of 11.8%. Mahindra & Mahindra delivered strong FY26 results, boosting revenue by 25.2% and net profit by 32.3%. Higher sales in the automotive and farm equipment segments drove growth.

Management highlights the company's growing strength in the electric vehicle (EV) segment. EV market share reached 9.6% in FY26 and crossed 10% in the last two months. The company also claimed the top spot for revenue generated from EV sales. Analyst Tom Kadavil notes the EV business now makes an operating profit. This milestone reduces risks tied to the company’s investments in EVs and future mobility tech.

Kadavil expects revenue and net profit to grow annually by 12% and 11% over FY27–28. A rising market share in the sport utility vehicle (SUV) segment, higher sales of premium vehicles, and a growing EV presence are expected to drive this growth.

5. Savita Oil Technologies:

ICICI Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this small-cap petro-products maker with a Rs 690 target price, implying a 13.9% upside. Analysts Vijay Goel and Deep Lapsia say Savita Oil’s diverse portfolio and fresh product launches in new markets will boost profitability growth in the medium term.

The company is increasing its production capacity for synthetic ester-based products at its Mahad plant. Analysts predict double-digit volume improvement will continue, driven by strong demand for transformer oils, specialty products, and lubricants. Savita Oil recently launched new coolants for data centres and energy storage systems. This positions the company perfectly to capture surging demand in these sectors. Analysts expect the immersion coolant market to expand 38% annually through FY31.

Goel and Lapsia note that Savita Oil’s EBITDA will jump due to better overall pricing. The company plans to offset higher raw material costs by raising prices for its transformer oils and lubricants. Analysts project the company will achieve an annual revenue growth of 34% and net profit growth of 37% over FY27-28.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

The Baseline

12 Jun 2026

Five Interesting Stocks Today - June 12, 2026

By Trendlyne Analysis

1. Aegis Logistics:

Thisoil and gas company has surged 25% over the past week after JM Financialissued a positive outlook and set a target price of Rs 1,200. The brokerage cited stronger-than-expected performance in the LPG distribution segment, which accounts for more than 90% of the revenue. The stock also appears in ascreener of companies where foreign institutional investors are increasing their shareholding.

Recent gains follow the March-quarter LPG distributionvolume, which rose 71% YoY. Expansion beyond Mumbai and Kandla facilities drove this growth. Aegis now distributes gas from multiple locations, including Mangalore, Haldia and Pipavav.

FY26 net profit came in 25% aboveForecaster estimates. High realisations of Rs 7,000 per tonne boosted profit growth over historical levels of Rs 4,000. CFO Murad Moledinasaid higher energy prices and shipping fares boosted margins. He believes these levels will be sustainable in a normalised environment as volumes continue to rise.

The company remains on track to achieve its target of 2 million tonnes of gas distribution by 2028, from its current capacity of less than a million tonnes. Moledina added that ammonia distribution would contribute to this target, while generating margins of about Rs 5,000 per tonne.

Aegis Logistics plans to invest $5 billion through FY31. The firm expects to spend $1.2 billion this fiscal year and $600 million in FY28. These funds will support several projects scheduled for commissioning by September this year, including liquid storage capacity at Mumbai port and the JNPA terminal expansion.

Management expects to deploy 60% of the planned capex between FY29 and FY31. Project execution, funding and leverage remain key developments to watch. Motilal Oswalmaintains a “Neutral” outlook as it believes current valuations factor in capacity expansion and earnings.

2. Zen Technologies:

Thisdefence technology provider surged 7.2% on June 4 followingreports that the Indian government is eyeing a massive Rs 20,000 crore drone procurement order. While Zen Tech makes anti-drone systems and training simulators, investors see a major long-term opportunity, as a larger drone fleet will likely increase demand for pilot training simulators and counter-drone systems.

Adding to the positive sentiment, Zen Tech closedFY26 with a strong order book of Rs 1,336 crore, providing revenue visibility for the coming quarters. The company secured new order inflows worth Rs 431 crore inQ4FY26 alone, driven by ongoing indigenous defence manufacturing initiatives. On order execution, CFO Hari Haran Chalatsaid, “Out of the total order book, Rs 1,000 crore is expected to be executed, and most of the deliveries are going to happen in Q2 and Q3 of FY27.”

Despite this, FY26 financial performance remained weak. Net profit declined 31%, while revenue fell 25%. Managementattributed the weakness to slower execution of existing orders and delays in converting opportunities into firm contracts. TrendlyneForecaster estimates suggest revenue and net profit could grow 72.9% and 85.7%, respectively, in FY27.

Managementexpects to generate cumulative revenue of Rs 4,000 crore across FY27 and FY28. Growth is anticipated to be driven by the execution of delayed FY26 orders and expansion into newer defence segments such as combat robotics, interceptor drones and automated weapon systems.

ICICI Directrecommends a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a price target of Rs 1,900, noting that the company will benefit from growing demand for anti-drone systems and defence simulators. It expects that the global training and simulation market, which is at $14 billion, could reach $20 billion by 2032, while the anti-drone market is projected to expand from $3 billion to $14 billion over the same period.

3. Apar Industries:

Thiselectrical equipment manufacturer rose 3.5% on June 10 after the company’s management gave a positive outlook on the business. CEO & MD Kushal Desaisaid, “If everything goes well, then we should be seeing double our profits in the next four to five years.” Apar is betting on rising investments in power transmission, renewable energy and data centres to drive growth.

Apar’s cables business is expected to play a major role in that expansion. The company is targeting 25% annual growth in its cables business and plans to invest around Rs 1,500 crore in capex for FY27. More than half of this will go toward expanding cable manufacturing capacity.

InFY26, revenue grew 23.3% to Rs 22,902 crore, led by strong demand for conductors and cables across power transmission and renewable energy projects. Net profit rose 18.9%, supported by higher volumes, improving exports and a greater contribution from premium products.

Conductors, whichaccount for 55.5% of Apar's revenue, remained the company's biggest business. Revenue here grew 32.7% during FY26 as utilities invested in renewable energy projects, transmission upgrades and grid modernisation. Premium products contributed 45.8% of conductor revenue compared with 40.6% a year ago.

The US is emerging as another growth driver for Apar, with revenue from the market rising nearly 50% during the year. Desai said the US market is seeing strong traction, led by growing demand from data-centre projects. “We've already supplied cables worth around $15 million to three major data-centre projects in the US,”he added.

PL Capitalreiterated its ‘Hold’ call on the stock as it expects Apar to benefit from long-term demand linked to renewable energy, grid modernisation and data-centre expansion. The brokerage also highlighted the company’s growing US business, rising share of premium conductors and strong order visibility in conductors and cables as key drivers for future growth.

4. Ajanta Pharma:

The stock of this pharmaceutical company jumped more than 6% over the past week, driven by a fresh policy push from the government. India’s Pharmaceutical Secretary, Manoj Joshi, announced an upcoming scheme aimed at boosting the bulk drugs sector.

Unlike traditional production-linked incentive programs, the new initiative will focus on strengthening long-term manufacturing capacity, promoting R&D investment, and fostering closer collaboration between industry and academia.

Adding to the momentum, a promoter entity of Ajanta Pharma sold 34.5 lakh shares worth over Rs 1,024 crore through a block deal on June 9. The stake was bought by institutional investors, including Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund and Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund. The transaction underscored institutional confidence in the company, supported by its robust earnings momentum and healthy profit margins. The stock features on a screener of companies that have outperformed their respective industries over the past month.

While shipping chaos in the Middle East disrupted global logistics, Ajanta’s domestic market and US generic business stepped up to secure its FY26 performance. Revenue jumped 18.6% to Rs 5,624.9 crore, powered by a better product mix and a stellar US run, backed by 8 new product launches over the last 15 months. Net profit rose 14.7% to Rs 1,056 crore, driven by gains in market share across its existing product portfolio.

Managing Director Yogesh Agrawal guided for mid-single-digit growth in the US market for FY27, supported by strong sales of the company’s seasonal flu drug. He remains confident of sustaining a robust EBITDA margin of around 27%, with a possible variation of up to 1%. On the international front, Ajanta is preparing to enter the rapidly growing weight-loss market by filing for generic semaglutide in emerging markets, with regulatory approvals expected within the following 12 to 18 months.

ICICI Direct maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 3,520, praising Ajanta as one of the market’s most reliable and consistent free cash flow generators. This financial strength is backed by highly disciplined spending. For FY27, management has budgeted Rs 400 crore in capex, earmarking Rs 150 crore for routine maintenance and the remainder for future growth initiatives.

5. Concord Biotech:

This biotechnology stock surged 9.3% over the past week after the company received two approvals from the US FDA. The company received approval for its Mycophenolate Mofetil oral suspension on June 3. The drug is used to prevent organ rejection and addresses an estimated US market of $30 million. The FDA also approved Tofacitinib tablets for the treatment of adult patients with arthritis, spondylitis and colitis, with a US market of $500 million.

The drugmaker reported weak earnings in FY26. Revenue declined 11%, while net profit dropped 30%. Geopolitical challenges, regulatory delays, changing customer purchasing patterns and internal setup costs weighed on performance. Both revenue and net profit missed Forecaster estimates. The active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) and formulations segments contracted during the fiscal year as orders from the US slowed during the first half of FY26. Potential customers also avoided changing existing supply chains amid uncertainty over US tariffs.

The company also faced challenges in obtaining approvals from the Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation, which affected deliveries to Europe for nearly three months. Management suspended a major tender in the Middle East due to regional geopolitical conflicts, which resulted in lower turnover. API deliveries to the area also slowed down, causing exports to drop by 9% during the year.

Management expects a recovery despite the underperformance. Concord’s Joint MD & CEO, Ankur Vaid, said, “We guide for revenue growth slightly better than our historical average of 18% in FY27.” He adds that new ventures, like the injectable facility and the overseas subsidiary, will likely break even in the next financial year.

Following the earnings release, Jefferies maintained a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock, with a target price of Rs 1,020 per share. The brokerage noted that the FY26 performance fell short of expectations due to delayed order execution and regulatory hurdles. However, analysts highlight that the robust order book provides near-term revenue growth visibility and potential for EBITDA margin improvement.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Baseline

11 Jun 2026

India's cash transfers to women are hurting everyone, including women

In 1950, China banned arranged marriages.

The move was part of several announcements that year, which completely changed Chinese society and culture. The government banned marriages arranged by parents and senior family members, saying that young people must freely choose who they wed. It also pushed policies for female education and mass employment, even requiring women to take up physically demanding jobs in construction and factories.

The government advertised these changes heavily across urban and rural China, with slogans telling women to behave like "Iron Girls". Female participation in the workforce zoomed, and female employment went from around 30% of working-age women in 1950 to nearly 90% by the 1970s.

Indian governments made no comparable effort. India has a female labour participation rate of 35% nationally and 25% in urban India today. Women here still mostly do unpaid, domestic work.

The Indian solution: freebies and cash transfers to women

What does a country do when the vast majority of its women don't work? You would think that the government would fix the barriers that keep women out of the workforce, focusing on education, job creation and safety in public spaces.

But instead of pushing women to take up jobs, Indian governments, especially at the state level, are turning to unconditional cash transfers.

At the central level, the main cash transfer scheme for women is the maternity benefit scheme (PMMVY), which provides conditional cash transfers to pregnant women and mothers. The government has cumulatively disbursed over Rs 20,100 crore to 4.3 crore women through this program.

Cash transfers are a small amount in the central government's broader Gender Budget. It is the cash giveaway trend among Indian states that is far more worrying.

States go all in on cash transfers to win votes from women

In 2020, the idea of cash transfers targeting women was a novelty in our politics. Just one state, Assam, ran such a program. Spending nationally on transfers was miniscule, at Rs. 1,600 crore.

Over the next five years, cash transfer programs ballooned. It started with Mamata Banerjee. In the April 2021 West Bengal elections, Banerjee was in a fight for her political life. To boost her party's chances of winning, she promised women voters the Lakshmir Bhandar ('Lakshmi's Treasure Chest') scheme that would give Rs. 500 per month to women and Rs. 1000 per month to Dalit women aged 25-60.

The Trinamool Congress won in a landslide. In November that same year, Arvind Kejriwal copied the strategy. During a rally in Punjab, he made a massive promise ahead of the 2022 elections, of Rs 1,000 per month unconditionally to every woman in Punjab above the age of 18 if the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) came to power.

Both these politicians framed these cash transfers as part of a family relationship. Mamata Banerjee called herself 'didi' (elder sister) who understood the difficulties of running the household. Arvind Kejriwal similarly called himself the 'elder brother' of women voters in Punjab, saying, "Many mothers cannot buy basic things because of tight family budgets. This elder brother of yours will help you."

By the time the BJP won the West Bengal election in 2026, it had raised the cash transfer promise to Rs. 3000 per woman, and renamed from Lakshmir Bhandar to Annapurna. No party suggested that the program should end.

The number of states implementing mostly unconditional cash transfers to women has since grown to 15 across India, and the total amount has jumped 100 times since 2020. India's latest Economic Survey estimates that states will spend an astonishing Rs 1.7 lakh crore on cash promises annually. Some independent estimates put the number even higher, at Rs 2.5 lakh crore distributed to around 13 crore women.

The cash transfer scheme in Karnataka now represents almost 30% of the state's total welfare and nutrition budget, at Rs. 26,000 crore. In West Bengal, the outlay has jumped from Rs. 8,000 crore in 2021 to Rs. 30,000 crore.

The result? Cash transfers are crowding out other spending.

Cash transfers are negatively impacting other spending by governments

Indian lawmakers often defend cash transfers, saying that they are a way to bypass family power structures, where men control the purse strings.

But these transfers have become the rope Indian states are tying their own hands with. The increasing outlay is hurting the ability of the state to spend on other items. Across the 15 Indian states doing these transfers, these now eat up 3-11% of state revenues, according to SBI Research. On average, they consume more of state GDP than spending on infrastructure, education and health.

While such free money provides women with immediate financial relief, they do not address long term issues they face. In fact, by not investing in public infrastructure and education, governments are narrowing opportunities for both women and men to find jobs and earn better incomes.

The result? The average income of a woman in India is significantly lower compared to the average income of a man. And Indian women are much worse off than Chinese women, where policies pushed women to work.

As the economist Arvind Subramanian notes, "Freebies are...symptoms of a problem, the problem being that the Indian state has not been very good at providing health, education and employment." What state governments are offering women right now, are distractions rather than solutions.

The Baseline

10 Jun 2026

Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - June 10, 2026

By Abdullah Shah

1. Lumax Auto Technologies:

ICICI Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this auto parts manufacturer with a target price of Rs 2,035, an upside of 26.2%. Lumax Auto delivered strong FY26 results, with revenue rising 33.3% and net profit increasing 56.9%. Rising product demand, new vehicle launches, and robust replacement market sales drove this performance. The passenger vehicles segment remains the key driver, generating about 53% of total revenue.

Lumax strengthened its passenger vehicle business by acquiring IAC India. This move expanded its interior components portfolio and deepened ties with major automakers like Mahindra & Mahindra and Maruti Suzuki.

The company holds an order book of Rs 1,450 crore. Electric and cleaner mobility products make up nearly 40% of these orders. Management expects better margins in FY27 as higher sales volumes and an improved product mix offset raw material costs.

Analysts Shashank Kanodia and Bhavish Doshi believe Lumax will outperform the broader automobile industry. A diverse product lineup, loyal customer base, and growing electric and CNG vehicle exposure support this outlook. They project a 15% annual revenue increase and 25% earnings growth over FY27-28.

2. Mishra Dhatu Nigam:

ICICI Securities reiterates a ‘Buy’ rating on this aerospace and defence manufacturer, raising its target price to Rs 480 for a 10.8% upside. The company delivered exceptional FY26 results. Faster order execution pushed revenue up 12.8%, while expanding operations and better fixed-cost absorption drove a 18.6% jump in net profit.

Analysts Vikash Singh and Pritish Urumkumar predict that the firm will capitalise on global supply-chain shifts and the Indian government’s push to build a local aerospace manufacturing hub. Management targets 20% revenue growth in FY27 with a 23-25% EBITDA margin. To support this, they will invest Rs 1,000 crore over three years to upgrade downstream manufacturing equipment for forging, bar rolling, and wire drawing.

Singh and Urumkumar highlight that new facilities for single-crystal blades and fasteners will widen profit margins. Developing single-crystal blades represents a major milestone. These high-value components expand the company's addressable market and support India’s ambition to build its own engine manufacturing ecosystem. The analysts project a revenue CAGR of 21% and a net profit CAGR of 39.8% through FY28.

3. Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle:

BOB Capital Markets retains a ‘Buy’ rating on this jewellery retailer, setting a target price of Rs 662 for a 26.8% upside. Analyst Lavita Lasrado says Bluestone will achieve sustained growth through consumer demand, improving store maturity, and a scalable omnichannel model.

Management notes that shoppers frequently discover products online before making purchases in physical stores. This consumer habit gives Bluestone’s integrated online-offline model an advantage over traditional retail. The company plans to expand its store network by 20% annually over the next four years while maintaining stable unit economics.

Lasrado points out that Bluestone proactively adjusts its product mix to navigate gold price volatility. This flexibility, combined with improving operating leverage, supports confidence in its strategy. However, investors must monitor margin stability. Management adds that acquiring new customers, securing repeat purchases, and achieving higher average order values directly fuel ongoing growth. Looking ahead, the analyst expects Bluestone to deliver a revenue CAGR of 24.5% and a net profit CAGR of 100.3% over FY27-29.

4. Torrent Power:

Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades this power utility company to a ‘Buy’ call, with a target price of Rs 1,638 per share, an upside of 17.1%. Analyst Arun Kailasan turned positive on the stock due to the company’s growing power distribution business, expanding renewable energy portfolio, and strong earnings visibility from upcoming project commissioning.

Management expects to close the Nabha Power acquisition in Q1FY27. This deal unlocks a new earnings stream, backed by a 25-year power supply agreement with the Punjab State Power Corporation. Torrent Power also plans to commission 1.2-1.4 gigawatts of new renewable energy capacity in FY27.

To guarantee uninterrupted service, Torrent Power secured enough liquefied natural gas to meet peak summer power demand. This proactive step eliminates concerns over fuel shortages and generation disruptions.

Kailasan notes that any decline in the stock price offers a good entry opportunity for investors. He projects revenue and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 10.6% and 12.8% over FY27-FY28. However, investors should watch for potential risks. Delays in executing renewable projects and rising debt from new commissioning activities could pressure overall profitability.

5. Ipca Laboratories:

Prabhudas Lilladher maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this pharmaceutical major, with a target price of Rs 1,800, implying a 10.4% upside. Ipca delivered strong FY26 results. Revenue grew 8.7%, while net profit surged 54.7%. Analysts Param Desai and Kushal Shah credit this top-line and earnings improvement to strong export formulations and domestic sales.

Domestic formulations outperformed during the year. The branded generic business gained traction and now generates about 75-80% of total EBITDA. Export formulations also increased due to high demand for branded and generic products. While institutional sales lagged and the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) segment stayed flat due to soft exports, healthy execution and better margins drove profit gains.

Management sees demand improving ahead. They forecast 12-13% revenue growth and a 150 bps margin expansion in FY27. Desai and Shah expect recovery in the API segment, consistent domestic sales, and better international synergies to fuel this momentum. Factoring in these catalysts, the analysts project Ipca to deliver a revenue CAGR of 10.6% and a net profit CAGR of 15.2% through FY28.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

The Baseline

09 Jun 2026

FY26 sector trends: India Inc grows on stronger demand, better execution

By Anagh Keremutt

Even as worries about the global economy mounted, India registered steady growth in FY26. GDP rose 7.7%, led by trade, hotels, transport, communications and services.

Corporate profit margins hit their highest level in over five years in Q4FY26. Employee and interest costs fell, helping offset higher raw material prices.

Dhananjay Sinha, Co-head of research and equity strategy at Systematix Institutional Equity, said, “Companies have cut operating and borrowing costs due to higher global economic pressures.”

Upbeat consumer spending showed up across jewellery, beauty and housing despite higher prices, while renewable energy and infrastructure investments lifted industrial companies.

Quick commerce, online platforms and wider distribution helped businesses grow faster during FY26. In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at the companies that reported strong FY26 revenue growth across sectors.

Jewellery, beauty and retail brands expand market share

Higher gold prices did not slow jewellery demand in FY26 as organised retailers gained share from smaller stores, and buyers dropped cash on weddings and premium collections. The textiles, apparels and accessories sector’s revenue grew 53.8% during FY26, while net profit rose 32.5%.

Titan’s revenue grew 44.6%, while net profit surged 52% as exchange-led purchases and studded jewellery sales remained strong. Managing Director Ajoy Chawla said, “Studded jewellery contributed 34% of jewellery sales during the year.”

Kalyan Jewellers expanded aggressively outside South India with revenue growing 42.7% as the company entered newer markets. Net profit jumped nearly 89%.

Lenskart’s revenue grew 28.2% in FY26 as the company opened stores in smaller cities and introduced premium eyewear. Products priced above Rs 10,000 contributed over 20% of India revenue, helping net profit jump nearly 67%.

Consumer spending was strong across beauty and organised retail through FY26. The retailing sector’s revenue grew 31.7% during the year, while net profit rose 58.4%.

Nykaa crossed the Rs 10,000 crore revenue mark with sales rising 26%, while beauty customers doubled to 45 million over the last three years. Net profit surged 3x thanks to higher-margin beauty products.

Digital marketplace CarTrade Tech’s revenue grew 22.3% during FY26 as used-car auctions and online auto classifieds saw more buyer activity. Higher transaction volumes helped net profit jump 65.6%.

Vishal Mega Mart’s revenue grew 20.6% and net profit rose 32.8% during FY26. The company added 105 stores and entered 77 new cities, and private labels contributed over 74% of revenue. Managing Director and CEO Gunender Kapur said, “Same-store sales growth reached 11% during FY26.”

Large launches drive housing sales across major cities

Real estate companies reported revenue growth of nearly 22% in FY26. Net profit rose 25.9% as premium launches across Bengaluru, NCR and Mumbai drew buyers.

Large launches across major cities pushed Prestige Estates’ revenue up 70.6%, while net profit grew 2.6x during FY26. Executive Director Zayd Noaman said, “Our maiden NCR residential launch generated over Rs 9,500 crore in sales from a single project alone.”

Sobha’s revenue rose 29.3% as premium housing sales stayed strong in Bengaluru, while NCR sales increased after its Greater Noida expansion. Together, both regions contributed about 80% of total sales. Net profit more than doubled during FY26.

Anant Raj’s revenue grew 22.8% as premium housing and data-centre projects picked up pace through FY26, while net profit rose 30.3%.

Solar demand and infrastructure spending lift industrial companies

Domestic solar orders picked up through FY26, lifting growth for consumer durable companies.The sector’s revenue grew by 17.7% during FY26.

Waaree Energies’ revenue rose 83.5% as module production jumped 77% and retail solar revenue grew 84% during FY26. Higher factory use helped Waaree nearly double net profit. Emmvee Photovoltaic also delivered bumper results, doubling revenue after expanding domestic solar manufacturing capacity. The company closed the year with a 9.4 GW order book, while net profit surged 2.9x.

HBL Engineering’s revenue rose 68.7% as railway electronics and Kavach safety-system orders grew through the year. Faster railway projects helped net profit nearly triple.

General industrial companies rode renewable-energy investments, transmission projects and infrastructure spending during FY26. The sector reported revenue growth of 14.7%, while net profit rose 2.7%.

Suzlon’s revenue rose over 53% as utilities and industrial users placed more renewable-energy orders through FY26. Higher wind turbine deliveries and faster project deliveries helped net profit rise 52.7% during FY26.

GE Vernova T&D India gained from rising transmission investments. Order backlog rose 49% to Rs 21,460 crore during FY26, while revenue grew 44.6% and profit more than doubled.

PTC Industries also reported strong aerospace and defence demand with revenue rising 88% and net profit growing 66.4%.

Travel, quick commerce and branded foods fuel consumer spending

Weddings, business travel and premium room bookings kept hotels and tourism companies busy. The sector’s revenue grew 16% during the year, while net profit rose 39.6%.

Chalet Hotels’ revenue rose 60.3% during FY26, while net profit surged 4.5x as higher occupancy and premium room tariffs lifted margins. Managing Director and CEO Shwetank Singh said, "Hotel demand is rising faster than new room supply across key markets,” helping room rates stay high.

ITC Hotels benefited from travel and banqueting demand. Revenue grew 19.5%, while net profit rose 28.7% as higher room tariffs and management fees boosted profits. Jubilant FoodWorks’ revenue rose 16.7%, while net profit more than doubled, driven by 351 net store additions and higher online ordering.

Quick commerce and wider distribution helped FMCG brands reach more buyers through FY26. The sector reported revenue growth of 13.5%, while net profit rose 21.1%.

Patanjali Foods’ revenue grew 17.7%, while net profit rose 39.5%. Palm oil prices have jumped after Indonesia tightened export controls earlier in FY26. CEO Sanjeev Asthana said, “Branded edible oils accounted for around 75% of total edible oil sales and were the primary growth driver.”

Honasa Consumer, the parent company of Mamaearth, reported revenue growth of 15.4% during FY26 as skincare and newer brands gained market share. The Derma Co and Aqualogica helped skincare and newer brands grow 35% during the year. Net profit surged 2.8x as higher-margin skincare products made up a bigger share of sales.

Bikaji Foods’ revenue grew 14.7% as family packs, exports and quick commerce sales grew rapidly. Quick commerce sales nearly doubled during the year, while net profit rose 28.6%.

Companies that added capacity faster widened their lead during FY26. Strong consumer demand, market share gains and infrastructure spending drove revenue growth across sectors.

The Baseline

05 Jun 2026

Five Interesting Stocks Today - June 5, 2026

By Trendlyne Analysis

1. Hyundai Motor India (HMIL):

This car manufacturer rose 1.6% on May 27 after it announced price hikes of up to Rs 12,800 across all models, starting June 1. The company cited rising material costs and higher operating expenses as reasons for the increase.

The price hike follows a tough Q4FY26 that squeezed profits. Net profit fell 22.2% as expenses jumped 10%, cutting the EBITDA margin by 370 basis points to 10.4%. However, revenue grew 5.4%, driven by strong exports, higher wholesale volumes, and steady rural demand. Management expects to lift margins back to its 11-14% target range through volume growth, price hikes and cost optimisation.

Exports emerged as a major growth driver during FY26. HMIL beat its export target of 7-8%, delivering a 16.4% jump in overseas shipments, thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and entry into new geographies.

For FY27, management has targeted 8-10% volume growth. MD & CEO Tarun Garg said, "Our growth ambition plans will be fuelled by aggressive investments of approximately Rs 7,500 crore in FY27, marking the highest ever capex in recent years."

Hyundai also plans to launch two new SUVs in FY27, including a mass-market electric model and a mid-sized petrol/diesel model. The Chennai plant will manufacture both models. Additionally, Hyundai is expanding its Pune plant, which will add capacity for 70,000 vehicles and take its total annual production capacity in India to 11.4 lakh units by 2030.

Near-term hurdles persist. On June 1, the stock fell 2.2% after a fire at a supplier's Chennai facility (Mobis India) disrupted the supply of audio systems and safety parts, temporarily slowing production potentially by 15%.

CLSA maintained its “Outperform” rating on Hyundai Motor India with a target price of Rs 2,200, citing upcoming launches and strong utility vehicle demand as drivers of volume growth. It also expects easing commodity costs and operational efficiencies to support margin recovery.

2. Asian Paints:

This paints company rose 1.1% on June 2 after Axis Direct upgraded the stock to 'Buy' with a higher target price of Rs 3,130. The brokerage expects Asian Paints to benefit from improving paint demand and an earnings recovery after several weak quarters.

In Q4FY26, revenue grew 10.6% YoY to Rs 9,247 crore, led by stronger rural demand and higher premium product sales, as decorative paints volumes rose 12.4%. Net profit surged 69.3%, while EBITDA margin expanded 214 bps to 19.3% as operating efficiency improved during the quarter.

Asian Paints is also getting a bigger share of revenue from products beyond traditional wall paints. New products contributed around 17% of overall revenue during the quarter.

Premium paints have helped narrow the gap between volume and value growth, indicating customers are spending more on higher-end products. MD & CEO Amit Syngle said, “The premiumization strategy has been working very well, and the PreLux categories have moved quite well overall.”

The company expects to commission its new chemicals facility in the first half of FY27 as part of a wider 30-40% manufacturing expansion plan. The plant will locally manufacture paint ingredients that are currently imported, helping the company manage supply risks and swings in crude-linked input costs more effectively. The company said only a limited number of global manufacturers currently produce these chemicals.

Axis Direct expects Asian Paints to continue outpacing industry growth as premium products, waterproofing and home décor businesses scale up further. It also expects that the company’s wider distribution network and new products will help defend market share amid rising competition.

3. ITC:

This cigarettes & tobacco products company slumped to a 52-week low of Rs 275 on 4th June, weighed down by an increasingly harsh tax environment. The legal cigarette industry is facing a major crunch after a brutal double whammy: a GST rate jump from 28% to 40%, combined with a massive hike in excise duties in early 2026.

Management pointed out that this punitive tax spike has triggered severe, unintended side effects across the industry. To cope, ITC is gradually rolling out price hikes to eventually reach a tax-neutral footing. Highlighting the sheer scale of the challenge, analysts at Motilal Oswal estimate that ITC needs a massive portfolio-wide price hike of over 35% just to remain EBIT neutral.

This harsh regulatory climate, combined with shipping logjams from the West Asia conflict, severely dented ITC's Q4FY26. Net profit plummeted 72.7% YoY to Rs 5,387.9 crore, largely swallowed up by the skyrocketing excise duties. Overall revenue also dipped 5.1%, dragged down by slowing agri-business and cigarette exports. The stock appears on a screener of companies seeing a rise in non-core income.

ITC’s FMCG segment posted a robust 15% revenue growth, fueled by strong, broad-based demand for everyday essentials, including staples, biscuits, snacks, frozen foods, noodles, and personal care products.

Chairman Sanjiv Puri said ITC is opting for gradual, calibrated price hikes rather than a sharp, one-time increase for consumers. The primary goal is to protect legal sales volumes and prevent the illegal grey market from expanding. While Puri warned of near-term volume declines and temporary pressure on profits, the company says it is focused on fully absorbing the tax impact without ceding market share to grey-market operators.

Motilal Oswal maintained its ‘Neutral’ rating on ITC with a target price of Rs 300. The brokerage expects the current volatility in earnings and cigarette volumes to stabilize once this initial transition phase cools down. Moving forward, ITC's premiumization strategy and non-cigarette businesses are showing structural improvement, with the FMCG business projected to clock a healthy 10% CAGR over FY26-28.

4. R R Kabel:

This wires & cables (W&C) manufacturer surged 14% over the past week after Crisil projected that the industry will deliver 28-30% revenue growth in FY27, with volume growth accelerating to 15-16% from the historical average of 8-10%. The ratings agency expects demand from power transmission, renewable energy, real estate and data centre projects to support the sector. Adding to the positive sentiment, the Gujarat government approved the "Wire-Free City Mission" and allocated Rs 500 crore for its first phase to underground power distribution lines across urban areas.

In Q4FY26, RR Kabel's revenue rose 33.7% YoY, while net profit increased 30.1%. The company benefited from strong demand across domestic and international markets, while higher copper and aluminium prices lifted realisations. W&C revenue grew 36.3% during the quarter, outpacing overall revenue growth, with exports contributing 25% of sales despite war disruptions.

Nearly 90% of revenue comes from W&C, where copper and aluminium account for 55-60% of raw material costs. While higher metal prices boosted realisations, the company also benefited from rising cable demand. Chief Operating Officer Rajesh Jain said wire volumes grew in the "mid-single digits", while cable volumes were "in the high teens" during the quarter. Cables contribute about 27% of the segment's revenue mix.

The firm invested Rs 300 crore towards cable capacity expansion in FY26 and expects another Rs 900 crore to be deployed through FY28. Jain notes that the focus on cables comes as "cables division has already been running at a utilisation of more than 90%," compared with roughly 70% for wires.

Motilal Oswal maintains its Neutral rating on the stock, with a higher target price of Rs 2,020. The brokerage expects cable volumes to grow around 25% over the next two years, compared with 11-12% growth in wires. As a result, cables could account for a larger share of the company's portfolio over time.

5. Astra Microwave Products:

This aerospace and defence stock hit an all-time high of Rs 1,463.9 after reporting strong FY26 results. Revenue rose 10.5%, driven by a ramp-up in project execution and a higher contribution from the space segment. Net profit jumped 25.7%, led by deliveries of high-value products such as satellite components. Both revenue and profit exceeded Forecaster estimates.

The space business, which contributed 10% of revenue, emerged as the growth driver by year's end. Topline from the segment surged 89.9% as the company participated in more strategic satellite and ISRO programs. Management expects repeat orders from upcoming ISRO and Defence Research and Development Organisation satellite networks over the next few years.

The exports division, which accounted for 14% of revenue, also expanded rapidly. The company shifted its focus from low-margin manufacturing to co-developing advanced radio systems and exporting higher-value components. However, the defence segment, the company's largest business at 72% of revenue, declined due to project delays and a shift toward the space and export markets.

Separately, the board will meet on June 10 to consider spinning off the growing space and metrology businesses. Management believes the move will sharpen operational focus, improve capital allocation, and enhance overall efficiency.

Following the results, CFO SG Reddy said, “We reaffirm our FY27 topline growth at 15-20% with a potential for much stronger growth over the coming years.” He added that the company aims to triple its revenue by FY31. Faster execution of radar, electronic warfare, fighter aircraft upgrade, missile, and space programs is expected to support this growth. Additional production orders could further accelerate the company's expansion.

After the earnings announcement, Motilal Oswal retained its 'Buy' rating and raised its target price to Rs 1,580, implying a potential upside of 11.3%. The brokerage expects project execution to accelerate beyond FY27 as the company finalises large orders from Q2FY27 onward. Analysts forecast annual revenue growth of 20% and net profit growth of 30% during FY27-28.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

The Baseline

04 Jun 2026

Is a dual threat coming for the Indian economy?

Two charts in the past week got me thinking about the outlook for the Indian economy this year.

Not many people in India know Spanish, but there are some words that have entered our vocabulary. One is Ola (hello), which nearly every investor knows thanks to Ola Electric, the struggling EV company.

Another is El Niño (the little boy). This is the notorious weather pattern that emerges every few years to raise temperatures and cause droughts worldwide, and wreak havoc on the Indian monsoon.

The chance of an El Nino developing is 80% this year according to the UN, and it's expected to be unusually strong. It is predicted to beat all previous El Ninos in its impact on temperatures.

Right now, the impact on the monsoon may be less severe. The Indian Metereological Department predicts that the monsoon will be at 92% of the normal level, with south India less affected. A major hit on rural demand usually happens if rural rainfall is below 85% of normal levels.

That is chart 1, already concerning. The second chart is the rising prices of fertiliser.

India's wheat and rice grow in our fertile valleys and plains, but the fertilisers feeding these crops come from the desert countries of the Middle East. India gets 42% of our DAP fertiliser imports from Saudi Arabia; Qatar and Oman supply around 42% of India's urea imports. The US Iran war and the closure of the Hormuz strait have driven fertiliser prices sharply up.

Just as these imports have got more expensive, domestic production has taken a big hit due to the LNG import crunch, and has fallen by 20% in the last three months. Out of India’s 32 domestic urea plants, 30 rely entirely on natural gas as feedstock, making the domestic fertiliser industry highly sensitive to any Qatari gas supply disruptions.

Nitrogen sits at the heart of India's food security

Indians are so dependent on fertiliser imports that you could argue that the Middle East is in a lot of our food. Our staple crops of rice and wheat are especially dependent. Removing nitrogen (urea) can cut wheat yields by more than half, and lack of phosphorus can bring rice yields down by 30 percent.

The combination of lower crop yields and a weak monsoon could increase India's food inflation sharply. Projections for FY27 suggest that inflation may jump 5%, as both food and energy prices climb.

Shriram Finance management in its earnings call has already flagged what it calls the "dual threat of 2026": potential monsoon shortfall and elevated agro-input costs from global conflicts. Both of these could weigh on farmer incomes and discretionary spending.

Indians are already impacted by the US Iran war, and a volatile US president threatening tariffs. The central government has been battling multiple problems: a depreciating rupee, rising deficits, and scandals around exam leaks and Adani-related controversies. Now, rising inflation would keep interest rates high, and eat into people's earnings: it's a sour cherry on top of a bad news cake.

Fertiliser companies are warning of higher prices

For fertiliser companies, the pain is already here. Coromandel International management noted in May 2026 that raw material prices in ammonia and sulphur have "gone up exorbitantly higher." The operating profit margin for Q4 FY26 shrunk to 8.12%, compared to an annual average of 10.10%. Other companies in the sector are reporting similar impacts.

Subsidies may reduce the impact on farmers. For kharif 2026, the Union Cabinet approved a subsidy of Rs 41,534 crore, with a 10% increase in subsidy rates for Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Sulphur compared to the previous Rabi season.

To keep DAP prices capped for farmers at Rs 1,350 per bag, the government has also provided a special additional subsidy (roughly Rs 3,500 per tonne) and an 'advantage-disadvantage' clause that compensates companies for the difference between actual import costs and the base subsidy rate.

But Coromandel and Chambal Fertilisers management both note that while the 10% hike is helpful, it is small compared to the "exorbitant" rise in ammonia and sulphur prices. Companies may have to pass on some of the increase in prices to farmers, which could impact their earnings and the overall health of the rural economy this year.

Not everyone is a loser. Companies with significant SSP (Single Super Phosphate) capacity, like Khaitan Chemicals and Rama Phosphates are seeing better margin stability. SSP is an indigenous alternative to DAP imports, and the government has increased its subsidy from Rs 5,121 to Rs 7,408 per MT for the kharif season, putting these companies in a relative sweet spot this year.

But overall, the 'dual threat' is creating more potential losers than winners.

The Baseline

02 Jun 2026

Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - June 2, 2026

By Ruchir Sankhla

1. Syrma SGS Technology:

Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this electronic manufacturing company, with a target price of Rs 1,300, an upside of 11.4%. Analysts Sumant Kumar and Meet Jain remain positive on Syrma SGS as the company shifts from low-margin assembly work to higher-value electronics manufacturing. It is increasing its presence in automotive, industrial equipment, medical devices and defence electronics, while reducing its dependence on consumer electronics and telecom products. These higher-value businesses now contribute more than half of their Rs 6,600 crore order book.

A key growth driver is the company’s entry into printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturing through a joint venture with South Korea-based Shinhyup Electronics. India currently imports 88% of its PCBs, offering domestic manufacturers a huge opportunity. Management expects this business to generate Rs 300 crore in revenue by FY28, with a long-term potential of Rs 2,500 crore.

Analysts Nikhil Chouhan and Chirag Shah believe Syrma perfectly aligns with the government's push for local electronics manufacturing. They estimate revenue, EBITDA, and net profit will grow at a CAGR of 32%, 35%, and 39%, respectively, through FY28.

2. Narayana Hrudayalaya:

Prabhudas Lilladher maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this healthcare provider, raising the target price to Rs 2,250 for a 16.8% upside. Narayana Hrudayalaya delivered robust Q4FY26 results. Revenue soared 74.6% YoY, and net profit rose 13.5%. Analysts Param Desai and Sanketa Kohale note that this growth has come from operational improvements in India and the Cayman Islands, alongside the consolidation of its UK subsidiary.

A better patient mix boosted the India market, raising average revenue per bed by 10%. Meanwhile, Cayman operations increased revenue by 13%, excluding the insurance business. Margin performance looked mixed. Consolidated margins dropped 460 basis points; however, India's margins expanded 400 bps, thanks to a higher contribution of complex medical cases.

The Bengaluru cluster remains the key growth driver, led by leadership in robotic cardiac surgeries and pediatric bone marrow transplants.

Management revealed aggressive expansion plans. They aim to boost bed capacity by 41% over the next three years across Bengaluru, Kolkata and Raipur. To achieve this, they will invest Rs 3,000 crore in domestic upgrades and Rs 460 crore in fresh acquisitions. Analysts expect rising patient inflows to generate 24.4% revenue and 25.4% net profit CAGRs through FY28.

3. AIA Engineering:

ICICI Direct upgrades this industrial machinery parts maker to a ‘Buy’ call, with a target price of Rs 5,285 per share, an upside of 16.1%. Analysts Chirag J Shah and Dilip Pandey turned positive after AIA Engineering reported robust Q4FY26 results. Strong sales volumes and better pricing drove a 9.4% YoY increase in revenue. EBITDA jumped 17.4%. Selling more high-value products expanded the EBITDA margin by 200 basis points.

Management said it is making progress in expanding its business with mining companies. AIA recently installed a new grinding system at a South American mine. The system performed well and helped the company win a second order from the same customer. Management states the new system can increase ore processing capacity by 15% while consuming less electricity, helping mining companies improve efficiency and lower costs.

Shah and Pandey see AIA Engineering as well-positioned to benefit from more mining companies shifting to its high-chrome grinding media. Mining operations use these specific tools to crush and grind ore. The company is currently using only about 55% of its production capacity and holds cash reserves of around Rs 4,300 crore, giving it room to expand.

4. Rainbow Childrens Medicare:

Geojit BNP Paribas initiates coverage on this healthcare facilities company with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 1,679, indicating a 26.2% upside. Rainbow reported healthy Q4FY26 results. Surging demand across pediatric, obstetrics and specialty healthcare services pushed revenue up 20.9% YoY. Net profit climbed 36.8%, driven by lower tax expenses.

Analyst Antu Eapan Thomas sees Rainbow as a highly attractive investment, owing to its consistent growth, funding strategy and low valuation. He notes that improving occupancy rates and a better patient mix will drive revenue and earnings growth, potentially triggering further stock upgrades.

Rainbow currently operates as a South-centric franchise. However, it plans to shift into a national pediatric and perinatal platform by increasing bed capacity 41% by FY29. This aggressive expansion will reduce South India’s share of total beds to 74% from 93%.

Thomas points out that this multi-hub strategy limits geographic risk, offsets seasonal dips in pediatric care, and secures long-term revenue growth. He expects new medical services and deeper tertiary care options to help Rainbow achieve a 15% revenue CAGR through FY28.

5. NLC India:

Axis Direct upgrades this power and mining company to a ‘Buy’ call, with a target price of Rs 385 per share, an upside of 10.3%. Analysts Aditya Welekar and Keval Barot turned bullish as NLC India enters a new growth phase, driven by expanding power generation, higher coal production and a ramp-up in renewable energy capacity.

One of the key growth drivers is the Ghatampur thermal power plant. The third and final unit of the project is expected to start operations in June 2026, making the entire 1,980 MW plant fully operational. The company has also begun mining at the Pachwara South coal block, which started production in March 2026. The mine is projected to produce around 2 million tonnes of coal in FY27, with annual output eventually increasing to 9 million tonnes.

Welekar and Barot note NLC's aggressive long-term goals. The company plans to more than double its mining capacity to 104 million tonnes per annum by 2030. It also aims to grow thermal power capacity from 5,960 MW to 10,020 MW, and expand renewable energy by over five times. To fund these projects, the company plans to invest over Rs 1 lakh crore.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)