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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    17 Apr 2026
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 17, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 17, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX):

    The stock of this capital markets company scaled a fresh 52-week high of Rs 2,903 on April 16, powered by a broad surge across commodity markets. Between the upcoming Akshaya Tritiya festival and hopes for a ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict, gold and silver prices are climbing steadily. This combination of festive demand and geopolitical optimism is driving a massive wave of trading activity.

    The ongoing US-Iran tensions have actually been a boost for MCX’s business. Whenever global oil and metal prices swing wildly due to instability, more traders and hedgers jump into the market to manage their risks. Since MCX primarily earns through transaction fees, this spike in volume improves the company's cash flow and earnings visibility. The stock appears on a screener of companies with rising net cash flow and cash flow from operating activities.

    Over the past year, MCX has delivered impressive returns of over 150%, easily outpacing its global counterparts. While mature international exchanges are seeing steady but slow growth, MCX is riding a wave of structural reforms and India’s growing "financialization of savings." These changes have turned retail participation into a major engine for the company’s stock rally.

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects MCX’s Q4 revenue to grow by 29.2% YoY on the back of strong trading volumes and higher transaction fees. Analysts at HDFC Securities predict revenue will hit Rs 892 crore, while Profit After Tax (PAT) is expected to nearly double to Rs 550 crore. New product launches and a stable technology platform are key drivers behind its compelling growth story.

    HDFC Securities has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating and raised the target price to Rs 2,950. A major highlight is the exchange's increasingly balanced portfolio. While energy used to dominate, gold and silver now account for 30% of the daily average trading volume (ADTV) in options. The brokerage notes that this diversification makes MCX less dependent on a single sector and much more resilient to specific market shocks.

    2. Blue Star:

    This air-conditioner maker surged nearly 13% over the past week as forecasts of a hotter-than-usual summer revived demand expectations. After a delayed start due to April rains, temperatures have now crossed 40°C in several regions, kickstarting sales. However, management is closely tracking both seasons. MD & Chairman B Thiagarajan said, “I pray that summer is good and monsoon is also good,” highlighting that while heat drives immediate demand, it is tier 3, 4 and 5 markets, which depend heavily on monsoons, that are contributing nearly 65% of volumes.

    FY26 remains a challenging year for the industry, weighed down by weak summer demand, GST-related disruptions, higher input costs, and new energy efficiency norms. Management expects AC prices to rise by 13–15% due to these changes, although GST rationalisation offsets about 10% of the increase.

    Industry volumes are likely to decline by around 5% in FY26 after a high base last year, but Blue Star should outperform. Group President Mohit Sud expects industry volumes to grow about 15% in FY27, supported by improving demand. The company aims to grow faster than the industry, driven by stronger distribution, premiumisation, and deeper penetration in smaller cities.

    On the manufacturing side, Blue Star has a room AC capacity of 14 lakh units, scalable to 18 lakh units across its facilities. Supply chain disruptions linked to the US-Iran war have affected component availability, but conditions are now improving. The company is also reducing import dependence, especially for compressors, with domestic manufacturing expected to pick up over the next 18 months.

    The company plans to invest over Rs 200 crore in FY27 to expand capacity and strengthen its product portfolio. Over the long term, Thiagarajan sees a large opportunity, with nearly 150 million Indian households expected to afford air conditioners, more than double the current base, highlighting significant headroom for growth.

    3. Bosch:

    This auto-equipment company rose 2% in the past week as it announced a large internal acquisition that could lift both growth and earnings. Bosch is buying Bosch Chassis Systems India for about Rs 9,068 crore, and the company itself has indicated this could add roughly 5% to earnings once the deal is completed.

    Bosch has largely been a supplier of engine-related parts. This deal brings in braking and safety systems, and increases Bosch’s share of what goes into a vehicle.

    Managing Director Guruprasad Mudlapur said, “The mobility business has shown 18.5% growth QoQ, and the 2-wheeler business grew by 58.3% in Q3FY26” Volumes are already strong across segments. And as vehicle production rises, Bosch can now supply more components per vehicle after the acquisition.

    Mudlapur also said production across passenger vehicles, tractors and two-wheelers is expected to hit record levels, which should support growth going ahead.

    Motilal Oswal Financial Services reiterated its ‘Neutral’ stance on the stock, with a lower target price of Rs 35,323. It noted that the stock has already run up sharply, which limits upside from current levels. It still sees merit in the deal as the acquired business has been growing, and fits well with Bosch’s existing portfolio, strengthening its position with automakers.

    It also helps that this is an internal acquisition within the Bosch group, which reduces execution risk.

    The stock appears in a screener of companies with increasing revenue every quarter for the past two quarters. Shareholding data indicates that mutual funds have increased their stake over the past two months, suggesting growing institutional interest.

    4. Prestige Estates Projects:

    Thisrealty company surged 8.1% on April 8 after surpassing its FY26 pre-sales target of Rs 27,000 crore. The companyreported Rs 30,024 crore in pre-sales, a 76% jump. Strongdemand across cities drove the growth, with Bengaluru contributing 34% of total sales, followed by the National Capital Region (NCR) at 33% and Mumbai at 20%. It also added new projects worth over Rs 50,000 crore in Gross Development Value (GDV) to its pipeline.

    The business development momentum continued in April. The company secured adeal to develop a 17-acre land parcel in Gurugram, with an estimated GDV of Rs 4,200 crore. Next, it alsopartnered with ABIL Group to develop a residential project in Mumbai, boasting a GDV of over Rs 9,000 crore.

    On the rental side, income is set to climb as new buildings are completed. Retail spaces are nearly full at 99% occupancy, showing steady commercial demand. Executive Director Zayd Noamansaid, “With completion of our ongoing pipeline, office annuity income is projected to scale to around Rs 4,000 crore and retail annuity income to approximately Rs 1,175 crore by FY30.”

    A key catalyst is monetising its office portfolio. Managementplans to explore a Real Estate Investment Trust once its portfolio hits 45 million square feet of fully leased office space by FY29, from thecurrent 12 million square feet. This move could unlock significant value and help the company reinvest its capital more efficiently.

    However, rising input costs present a near-term challenge for new projects. Chairman Irfan Razackwarned, “If the costs go up too high, ultimately it will tell on the price, and then the customer has to bear that additional cost.” This could squeeze affordability on upcoming launches, though existing projects are protected by fixed-price contracts.

    Jefferiesmaintains a “Buy” rating but trimmed its price target to Rs 1,635. Citing weaker home-buying demand due to the Middle East conflict, the brokerage cut its FY27 sales growth forecast to about 6% from 21% in FY26. 

    5. HDB Financial Services: 

    This financial services stock soared 10.2% last week after the company reported strong Q4FY26 results. Net profit climbed 41.4% YoY, and revenue rose 11.2%. Broad-based growth across all segments, a larger customer base, better loan quality, and lower provisions drove these strong numbers. 

    The lender’s assets under management (AUM) grew by 11%, fueled by demand for consumer goods, personal cars, commercial vehicles, unsecured business loans, and mortgages. The company's push toward digital channels through its Do-It-Yourself platform helped increase loan issuances by 2.2x in FY26. Secured loans now make up 74% of the total loan portfolio. 

    Management expects the commercial vehicles and construction equipment segments to keep growing in the coming quarters. Strong partnerships with manufacturers and a wide dealership network will support this growth.

    Net interest margins (NIM) widened by 68 basis points during the quarter. Investments in new technology, including AI, helped the company lower its borrowing costs. Discussing future targets, CFO Jaykumar Shah said, “Going forward, we aim to maintain our NIM above 8% over the medium-term.”

    The company improved its loan recovery process by using AI chatbots to contact customers with slightly overdue payments, helping enhance asset quality. In Q4FY26, chatbots sent automated reminders to over 50% of these customers. This move lifted collection rates by 25 bps, improved overall loan quality, and reduced the cost of credit. Management noted that growth will accelerate as asset quality pressures continue to fade, particularly in the unsecured loans and commercial vehicles segments, supported by the scale-up of AI chatbots. 

    Following the results, Jefferies retained its ‘Buy’ rating on HDB Financial with a target price of Rs 845, implying a 23.9% upside. The brokerage believes faster loan growth, lower credit costs, and stable margins will drive future earnings. Analysts expect the firm to deliver annual EPS growth of 22% through FY28. 

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    16 Apr 2026

    Standing up to global shocks: Stocks leading revenue & earnings growth estimates

    By Anagh Keremutt

    The Indian markets are reeling from record FII outflows of Rs 1.6 lakh crore in FY26. Domestic investors have stepped in with strong inflows, cushioning the impact and keeping the indices from slipping too much.

    In the past couple of weeks, markets have seen a relief rally as tensions between the US and Iran eased, with both sides moving towards talks for a longer ceasefire (hopefully, one that lasts). But for foreign investors, the broader backdrop remains less supportive, with rupee movements weighing on returns.

    “The weak rupee is a big factor eating into the returns of foreign investors, and keeping foreign capital at bay,” said Rupen Rajguru, Head of Equity Investment & Strategy at Julius Baer India.

    What’s clearer is how uneven the growth outlook has turned. Earnings expectations are picking up in some sectors on the back of capacity additions and strong orders, while higher crude is weighing on others. 

    “Higher energy prices and supply disruptions may persist for months, denting economic activity across households and corporations,” according to S&P Global Ratings. As cost pressures build, the gap between companies that can sustain growth and those that cannot widens. 

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at Nifty 500 stocks that stand out, with the strongest revenue and EPS growth estimates for FY26. In Q3FY26, the Nifty 500 clocked its highest earnings growth in eight quarters. FY26 estimates are building on the momentum already visible in recent quarters.

    Energy, industrials: Capacity additions, order books lift earnings

    Stocks across Utilities, General Industrials, and Mining are seeing capacity additions and order books translating into growth.

    JSW Energy added 5.2 gigawatts (GW) over the past year, taking its total capacity to 13.3 GW. Thermal power still accounts for over two-thirds of power generation, while renewable output is rising faster, up 96% in Q3FY26. More than 80% of JSW’s sales come from long-term agreements, keeping revenue steady. Higher capacity, along with strong utilization, is expected to drive a 76.8% jump in revenue and 17% growth in EPS in FY26.

    ACME Solar is seeing the same story play out. It commissioned 422 megawatts (MW) in Q3FY26, with most upcoming projects already tied to customers. As these projects go live, they contribute to revenue, which is expected to grow 47% in FY26.

    Motilal Oswal noted that nearly 78% of ACME’s portfolio is tied up under long-term power purchase agreements, providing strong earnings visibility. EPS is expected to rise 84.6% in FY26 as capacity additions drive operating leverage and borrowing costs fall.

    Suzlon’s revenue is expected to grow by 58.8%, while EPS is set to rise 14.6% in FY26. Its order book stands at a record 6.4 GW, more than doubling over the past year. Execution is picking up, with 617 MW delivered in Q3FY26, its highest-ever quarterly figure.

    Despite this improvement, Suzlon is down over 13% in the past year as it continues to face execution challenges. Problems like land acquisition, grid connectivity, and delays in transmitting power have long plagued this company, which are yet to be resolved.

    GE T&D is seeing rising demand for transmission infrastructure. Its order book has grown 13% since March 2025, with inflows increasingly coming from utilities, supporting its projected revenue growth of 44.6% in FY26, while EPS is expected to double. The company is investing close to Rs 1,000 crore to expand manufacturing and execution capacity as demand builds.

    Waaree Energies' order book has grown about 50% since the start of FY26, while production is scaling up. Revenue is expected to rise 80.4% and EPS is set to more than double in FY26. The US duties on Indian solar imports have created uncertainty, but the company has taken steps to address the issue. It is increasing manufacturing capacity in the US and shifting raw materials sourcing to lower-tariff regions.

    Lloyds Metals stands out with the highest projected growth in FY26, with revenue expected to surge 184.9% and EPS by 187.1%. This is driven by a sharp increase in iron ore production, which is expected to more than double in FY26, along with a growing share of pellets, which deliver an EBITDA per tonne about 2.5 times higher than iron ore.

    Higher activity and scale drive growth in financials

    In Capital Markets and Financials, growth is coming from higher trading activity and more efficient scaling of loan books.

    Multi Commodity Exchange is seeing a surge in trading activity, as commodities see investor interest amid supply shocks and scarcity fears. Average daily turnover more than tripled in Q3FY26, led by bullion contracts. Options volumes have more than doubled, adding a new layer of earnings. MD & CEO Praveena Rai said, “Systems are being built to support 3x-4x current volumes,” indicating room for further scale. Revenue is expected to grow 91.5% while EPS more than doubles in FY26.

    BSE is seeing similar traction in derivatives. The introduction of weekly expiry contracts for Sensex options has increased trading frequency and participation. This momentum is expected to continue, with revenue projected to grow 50.5% while EPS rises 83.3% in FY26.

    For Capri Global Capital, assets under management have surged 47%, while loan disbursements are rising faster than costs. MD Rajesh Sharma pointed to improving operating leverage, noting, “Our disbursements have risen 87% over the past year, while manpower has increased by only 19%.” Estimates point to 44.1% revenue growth and an EPS growth of 61.2% in FY26.

    Services, realty & fertilizers: Growth from shifts in demand

    Growth in IT Consulting & Software, Travel Support Services, Fertilizers and Realty is coming from changing customer preferences.

    Netweb Technologies is seeing strong demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure. AI systems contributed 64% of revenue in Q3FY26. The company is also working with digital infrastructure company Vertiv to build integrated systems that combine computing with cooling and power. This supports its forecasted revenue & EPS growth of 106.6% and 87.3%, respectively, in FY26. 

    TBO Tek is seeing customers move toward higher-value bookings. Hotels and ancillary services now account for 59% of gross transaction value, up from 45% in FY23, reflecting a shift toward segments that generate higher commissions than air ticketing. 

    Motilal Oswal noted that the company “operates in a fragmented market with over 2 million travel intermediaries.” As it adds more premium options, agents increasingly rely on TBO for a wider range of bookings, increasing transaction values. This is expected to translate into a revenue growth of 53.4% and EPS growth of 10.9% in FY26.

    Prestige Estates is converting demand into revenue as projects move toward completion. Pre-sales have more than doubled in 9MFY26, providing a strong pipeline for future revenue. Chairman & MD Irfan Razack said the company expects to “cross Rs 30,000 crore in pre-sales in FY26,” driven by launches across key cities. FY26 forecasts point to a revenue growth of 64.8%, while EPS is expected to grow more than 2.5x.

    Paradeep Phosphates is shifting its product mix. Complex fertilizers have grown 78.5% in Q3FY26 as the company moves toward segments with better pricing and steadier demand. Phosphoric acid capacity, a key input, is being increased by 40%, reducing reliance on imports and improving cost control. Its revenue and EPS are expected to grow 57.1% and 40.5%, respectively, in FY26.

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    In your opinion, how long will the US-Iran ceasefire hold?

    April 9, 2026

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    26.2%

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    13.1%

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    60.7%

    84 responses

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    The Baseline
    16 Apr 2026
    After fast fashion, 'fast war' is here with low-cost weapons. And Indian defence players are delivering

    After fast fashion, 'fast war' is here with low-cost weapons. And Indian defence players are delivering

    World War 1 was won by tanks. World War 2 was won by planes, that bombed slow-moving tanks from the air.

    War has made a comeback since 2022, with Ukraine, Iran and Lebanon emerging as battlegrounds. But military planes may no longer be key to winning the modern war.

    To understand how war is changing, I would like to first present you with two sweaters. The first one is by Ralph Lauren, made with cotton and wool, and has designer brand pricing (Rs 20,000). The copycat sweater, released a few weeks after Ralph Lauren's design,  is by a fast fashion, China-based brand called Cider. It is made of acrylic, a cheap, petrochemical-derived fiber and costs Rs. 1,720, less than one tenth of the original. 

    At the heart of fast fashion are two trends: 1) the rise of artificial fibers like acrylic and polyester, and 2) machine-made clothing. Cider releases hundreds of new clothing styles made with these materials every week, manufactured in their Guangzhou factory in China.  

    A similar "fast manufacturing" trend is now happening in the defence industry. 

    In the recent wars in the Middle East, we are seeing smaller states surprise bigger, supposedly stronger countries with new tactics. Last month, Iran attacked and destroyed US bases with cheap, $30,000 suicide drones that the US had to use $2 million interceptors to shoot down. One analyst called it "using a BMW to crash a bicycle". "Saturation attacks" using hundreds of drones and mobile missile launchers are able to overwhelm highly sophisticated defense systems.

    War is having its polyester moment. The future of defence is "fast war", where like fast fashion, the product is cheap and disposable.  Countries now have to be capable of attacking and defending with low cost devices, that can target expensive assets like tanks, aircraft and even military carriers. 

    A drone to drone cost comparison highlights the dilemma for heavy-spending states like the US. Countries like China and Iran are able to produce tactical suicide drones both at low cost and high volumes, unlike the US.

    These drones are designed with a low noise signature and low radar, making them difficult to detect by radar or sensors.

    Low-cost war manufacturing is increasingly being dominated by a few countries: China, Turkey, Iran, Ukraine, and now India. Indian private sector companies are targeting both the Indian and global defence market with innovative products, and they are closing the competition gap with China and others. 

    In the era of cheap wars, Indian players are rising

    The rise of modern warfare, with its use of suicide drones, robots and electronic systems at scale, is drawing multiple Indian  players that while still small, are competing with entrenched bigwigs like HAL and Bharat Electronics for government defence contracts. These include Solar Industries, Zen Technologies, Astra Microwave and others.

    Together, this crop of companies are offering alternative approaches to the traditional, heavy asset war systems that HAL and Bharat Electronics have.

    As the world woke up to threat of cheap war systems, the Indian government has reacted accordingly. Because the traditional defense procurement process is notoriously slow, the armed forces are utilizing Emergency Procurement (EP) powers to buy the right things fast.  The small defence startup ideaForge for example, won a Rs 137 crore emergency procurement order in mid-2025 for hybrid mini-drones from the Indian army. The government used the same emergency procurement route last year to buy hundreds of Nagastra drones from Solar Industries to boost their strike capabilities.

    Solar Industries and Zen Technologies emerge at the forefront of drone tech 

    Traditionally an explosives manufacturer, Solar Industries has turned to suicide (kamikaze) drones as a key offering in their defence arsenal. Their Nagastra-1 precision strike drones, are priced in the $40,000 range, cheaper than the European and American offerings, but pricier than the Chinese.

    The Buddhist word "zen" typically translates as "peaceful" or "calm". The ironically-named Zen Technologies is moving fast in the modern warfare space. ZenTech provides anti-drone, unmanned aerial systems that do both soft-kill (radio jamming, GPS spoofing) and hard-kill (direct attack) to disable hostile drones.

    The company acquired TISA Aerospace in June 2025, which has added loitering munitions (suicide drones) to its product line. It has also launched war robots. The Prahasta (robotic dog) and Barbarik (remote-controlled weapon station) are designed for recon and combat in high-risk areas without exposing personnel.

    Companies like Astra Microwave and Data Patterns are specializing in a different segment - the electronic warfare space, providing jamming solutions and communication intercepts for enemy systems and to disable swarming threats. 

    Opportunity for private players: state behemoths struggle with execution

    While HAL continues to deliver heavy platforms like the LCA Tejas aircraft and the Prachand, its deliveries are behind schedule. The company had won for example,a record Rs 66,500 crore contract from the government for 97 aircraft in 2025, added to a previous order for 83 jets. But due to what it calls engine supply delays from GE Aerospace, only 5 jets were ready for delivery as of April 2026.

    While HAL is trying to catch up to drone manufacturers like Solar industries through new systems like the Combat Air Teaming System (CATS), where a manned fighter like Tejas controls a swarm of autonomous drones, these execution delays have limited it from bidding for new contracts. HAL has been reportedly  excluded from bids to manufacture the country’s first fifth-generation stealth fighter, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). The contract may instead go to a large private sector player like L&T or Tata Advaced Systems.

    As war becomes more commonplace, speed is emerging as a moat for Indian defence players, and the private sector is responding. 

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    The Baseline
    14 Apr 2026
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 14, 2026

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 14, 2026

    By Abdullah Shah

    1. Power Finance Corp (PFC): 

    ICICI Direct initiates coverage on this financial company with a ‘Buy’ rating, with a target price of Rs 520 per share, an upside of 19.9%. Analysts Vishal Narnolia and Parth Chintkindi see PFC as about to capitalise on India’s expanding power and infrastructure financing cycle. They expect the company’s consistent margins, stable asset quality, and long-term growth prospects to drive strong returns on equity (RoE).

    India's power sector is entering a massive spending cycle, with capacity expected to jump to 900 gigawatt (GW) from 520 GW by FY32. This creates a Rs 12-13 lakh crore lending opportunity for financiers like PFC across all power projects. The proposed merger of PFC and REC is a major upgrade. It will create a leaner, dominant lender with a massive Rs 11.5 lakh crore loan book.

    Vishal and Chintkindi highlight that the merger will unlock significant opportunities for integrated technology and improved efficiency. With its expertise and strong relationships, PFC and REC should capture a large share of new financing opportunities. The firm is expected to grow its net interest income by 9.9% and net profit by 7.7% annually through FY28.

    2. Avenue SuperMarts (DMart):

    Motilal Oswal retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this department store operator, with a higher target price of Rs 5,000 per share, a 12.4% upside. Analysts Aditya Bansal and Avinash Karumanchi believe DMart’s value-centric model and superior store economics will ensure its long-term customer appeal despite the rise of digital platforms, especially in Tier 2+ towns.

    Accelerated store additions are a key revenue growth driver. Analysts increased their store addition estimates to 85-90 openings during FY27-28, up from 70-80 previously. They see ample "white space" in populous states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal. In Tier-1 markets. Management focus is on operational efficiency: reducing queues, boosting billing capacity, and improving service levels and checkout speed to fuel revenue growth.

    Expansion into Tier-2 and smaller cities plays on DMart’s value pricing strength and the weaker presence of quick-commerce players. Bansal and Karumanchi observe that while revenue per store might be lower in newer Tier-2 locations, less competition helps offset the need for higher discounts. They project the firm will achieve revenue and net profit CAGRs of 19% and 16%, respectively, over FY27-28.

    3. Tata Consultancy Services: 

    Deven Choksey upgrades this software company to a ‘Buy’ call, with a target price of Rs 3,080 per share, an upside of 24.6%. The upgrade follows a performance recovery, with Q4FY26 revenue climbing 5.4% QoQ to Rs 70,698 crore. Growth was broad-based, with improvements in banking, manufacturing, and technology verticals across North America, Europe, and the UK. Analyst Devak Mehta points out that client additions turned positive after nearly two years, signalling recovering demand. The stock is down 24.3% over the past three months.

    Management sees a structural shift to AI-led growth. The company is building large-scale AI infrastructure through its HyperVault data centres, partnering with OpenAI and AMD. AI revenue now exceeds $2.3 billion annually, making up about 7.6% of total revenue. While AI will drive future growth, management warns it could temporarily hurt traditional revenue due to pricing pressures from increased productivity.

    Mehta expects revenue, EBITDA and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 10–12% through FY27–28. He believes the company’s early entry into AI infrastructure and strong client relationships position it well to capitalise on the next wave of technology spending. But execution, the speed of AI monetisation and competition from AI-first players remain key risks.

    4. Sumitomo Chemical India: 

    ICICI Securities initiates coverage on this agrochemical company with a ‘Buy’ call and a target price of Rs 515 per share, an upside of 22%. The stock is down 25.3% over the past year. Strong domestic agriculture demand and improving industry conditions are driving the positive outlook. However, Middle East tensions pose a near-term risk, potentially increasing input and logistics costs. Agrochemical production relies on crude oil derivatives; disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could raise oil prices, freight, and insurance. This raises raw material costs and may delay shipments, squeezing margins if the company cannot quickly pass on these expenses.

    Sumitomo benefits from its strong bond with its Japanese parent, gaining access to innovative, proprietary products. This keeps its market position premium, unlike generic agrochemical competitors. Management targets 12–13% annual revenue growth over the next few years, driven by new products, capacity expansion, and an improved product mix. The company plans to spend up to Rs 400 crore over the next 2–3 years on new projects in Dahej, Tarapur, and Bhavnagar to support long-term growth.

    Analysts Probal Sen and Hardik Solanki expect steady revenue, EBITDA, and net profit growth through FY28, thanks to product innovation, distribution, and parent support. They believe the company is well placed for steady long-term growth, driven by rising use of specialty agrochemicals and the government’s focus on improving farm productivity. Key risks include input cost volatility and unfavourable weather.

    5. Shilpa Medicare (SML):

    Ventura initiates coverage on this pharma producer with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 511 per share, an upside of 22.9%. Analysts see the biologics and peptide segment as a key growth engine. New biosimilar launches and a growing contract manufacturing (CDMO) business will fuel this expansion as global firms outsource more complex work.

    Shilpa Medicare operates across the entire pharma value chain, including active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), formulations, biologics, and contract manufacturing. Its API segment, contributing ~60% of revenue, holds a strong position in oncology and complex APIs. The company is shifting towards in-house consumption, which will improve margins and integration benefits. The formulations segment, accounting for ~30% of revenue, focuses on complex products such as injectables, oral dissolving films, and transdermal patches. These products face limited competition and offer higher margins than plain generics. 

    Analysts expect revenue growth to accelerate from FY27 onward, driven by new product launches, regulatory approvals, and better use of existing facilities. Margins are set to expand as the business mix shifts. The share of high-margin businesses like biologics and contract manufacturing will increase, while the lower-margin API segment shrinks.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    10 Apr 2026

    Dividend yields vary across sectors, but Indian IT comes out on top

    By Anagh Keremutt

    Stock market investors look for returns in two ways: betting on stock prices going up, or through dividends, where companies share a part of their profits.

    This is where dividend yield comes in. It tells you how much cash a company has distributed to investors each year as a percentage of its stock price. The broader market currently offers a dividend yield of about 1.3%. A stock with a higher yield may not always be paying more. Sometimes the yield rises because the stock price has fallen, making the same dividend look better.

    When markets become volatile like right now, it becomes harder for investors to predict share price gains.Periodic income streams like dividends become more popular. As JPMorgan notes, “Dividends may contribute more to total returns when upside in stocks is limited.”

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at how dividend yields have moved over the past year. The focus is on companies where dividend payouts are backed by consistent earnings, cash inflows, and low debt.

    IT: Strong order books despite AI hype, support dividend yields

    With a dividend yield of about 3.1%, the Indian IT sector sits at the top. In addition to stable dividend payouts, falling stock prices have pushed dividend yields higher.

    Globally, most companies have shifted their spending toward AI-led work and cost-saving programs. Even so, a large share of revenue for Indian tech continues to come from existing clients through their ongoing contracts, ensuring regular cash inflows.

    Within the IT space, Wipro is a juggernaut, boasting a dividend yield of 5.5%. This is supported by its cash flows from core operations, which were about 135% of its net profit in Q3FY26. 

    MD & CEO Srini Pallia noted, “Demand is being led by cost optimisation and vendor consolidation programs.” Wipro also sits on a cash pile of about $6.5 billion, giving it an added cushion to offer payouts even during weaker growth periods. 

    Infosys, another giant in this sector, generated about $915 million in free cash flows in Q3FY26. The company also holds about $3.9 billion in cash and investments, supporting a dividend yield of around 3.4%, even as it continues to invest in large deals and AI-led growth.

    Cyient reported free cash flows of about Rs 236 crore in Q3FY26, equivalent to nearly 158% of its net profit. It ended the quarter with a net cash position of Rs 1,434 crore, supporting its dividend yield of around 3.4%. New deals grew about 36% over the past year, while a shift toward higher-value projects and cost control supported margins and cash generation.

    Tata Technologies has a dividend yield of around 2.1%. A larger share of its revenue now comes from software and embedded engineering, where revenue has grown over 60% annually over the past three years. This work is typically longer-term and recurring.

    Mphasis moves against the tide of falling IT stocks. It has risen by about 9% over the past year and still offers a dividend yield of 2.4%. Growth in its banking and financial services segment, along with a doubling of deal wins over the past year, is bringing in more predictable cash.

    Consumption dividends hold amid cost pressures

    Across consumption sectors, dividend yields stand at about 2.1% for food, beverages & tobacco and 1.5% for FMCG.

    ITC maintains a high dividend yield of 4.7%, supported by strong cash generation from its cigarette business. This segment contributes to nearly 80% of the company’s profits, while margins in its FMCG business expanded by about 145 basis points (bps) in Q3FY26. 

    However, the stock has fallen sharply in the past year. Recent increases in excise duty on cigarettes could put some pressure on volumes and future growth. Considering this, Forecaster expects ITC’s dividend per share to slip by about 3.5% in FY27.

    Hindustan Unilever's (HUL) dividend yield stands at about 2%. In Q3FY26, its gross margins expanded 30 bps, supported by pricing and product mix, keeping cash flows steady.

    There are some concerns for these companies. Crude oil prices have surged amid supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict, raising packaging and logistics costs. As Axis Securities noted, these additional costs could “compress margins by about 100–200 bps in the near term.”

    Companies have responded with price hikes of up to 12%. HUL’s MD & CEO Rohit Jawa said, “We have adjusted prices carefully while keeping costs under control,” to protect margins and keep cash flows steady.

    Cost efficiency drives dividends across AMCs and Nalco

    In financials, the sector dividend yield stands at about 1.1%. Within this, asset managers and rating agencies stand out. Their asset-light models require limited reinvestment, allowing a larger share of profits to be distributed.

    Strong inflows into mutual funds support this. Monthly SIP contributions crossed Rs 31,000 crore for the second consecutive month in January 2026.

    Nippon Life India AMC offers a dividend yield of 2.1%, backed by profit growth, with net profit rising 37% in Q3FY26. Its assets under management (AUM) have grown over 20% in Q3FY26. This larger pool brings in higher fee income, which supports its payouts.

    UTI AMC's core business continued to expand in Q3FY26. Mutual fund assets rose to about Rs 3.9 lakh crore, up 11.7%, supported by regular inflows across categories. This earnings base has enabled the company to maintain a dividend yield of around 5%, with about 94% of its net profit paid out as dividends in FY25.

    Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC reported a 20% growth in net profit in Q3FY26. Its average AUM rose to about Rs 4.8 lakh crore, the highest so far, with consistent inflows across equity, passive and alternate segments.

    A larger share of its business is now coming from higher-fee segments like portfolio management services (PMS) and alternative investment funds (AIF). This shift, along with overall growth, supports its dividend yield of around 2.5%.

    Crisil’s dividend yield stands at 2.2%. Its ratings business delivers margins above 40%. With limited reinvestment needs, a large share of its earnings is available for distribution.

    National Aluminium offers a dividend yield of 2.7%. The stock has risen more than 2.5x over the past year, as aluminium prices climbed over 48% due to supply constraints and the MidEast conflict. Costs remained relatively stable because the company sources much of its raw materials in-house. This helped expand margins and drove net profit growth of about 26% in 9MFY26, increasing the cash available for payouts.

    Across companies, a similar dividend yield can come in different ways. What matters is not how high the yield looks today, but if the business can keep up the payouts by generating enough cash.

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    The Baseline
    10 Apr 2026
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 10, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 10, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Titan:

    Thisgems & jewellery company rose 10% in the past week as its revenuejumped 46% YoY in Q4FY26. Growth remains broad-based, with both domestic and jewellery businesses up over 40%. Consumer sales in jewellery grew, helped by higher spending per customer and a recovery in buyer growth.

    Studded and gold jewellery grew around 30%, while coin sales nearly tripled. Managing Director Ajoy Chawlasaid, “the festive period drove consumer interest across our product portfolio,” with demand across price segments.

    Management also focused on managing affordability. Jewellery CEO Arun Narayan said, “the pivot to lightweight jewellery and introduction of 18-carat and lower carat options helps keep price points accessible.” This is helping sustain volumes while allowing revenue to grow through higher realisations.

    The stock appears in ascreener of companies with increasing revenue every quarter for the past three quarters.

    Expansion continues to support growth. The company added 47 stores in the quarter, taking its total network to 3,603 stores. International business grew 156%, driven by traction in the Middle East and North America. The integration of Damas, a Gulf-based jewellery retailer in which Titan has acquired a controlling stake, also drove growth.

    Geojit however,downgraded the stock to ‘Hold’, citing gold price volatility and near-term pressure on jewellery margins due to product mix changes. But it noted that premium products and a better mix should help margins over the longer term.Forecaster expects revenue to rise nearly 30% in FY26, with net profit surging nearly 55%.

    2. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals:

    The stock of this pharmaceutical company rose by more than 3% over the past week. On 9th April, Glenmark received final approval from the US FDA for its generic version of progesterone 100 mg vaginal inserts used in fertility treatments. According to IQVIA data for the 12 months ended February 2026, the US Endometrin vaginal inserts market recorded annual sales of approximately $59.2 million. The stock appears on a screener for companies that have shown consistent high performance for the past 5 years. 

    On April 1, the company announced it would take over the end-to-end commercialization and distribution of Ryaltris in the US. This nasal spray, used to treat seasonal allergic rhinitis, represents a strategic shift for Glenmark. Commenting on the move, Marc Kikuchi, North America’s President and Business Head, said: “The commercialization of Ryaltris in the US is an important step forward for the growth of our company. It allows us greater operational direction in how we engage the market. Ryaltris was launched in 11 new markets in FY26, taking its global presence to 55 countries.”

    The patent expiry of semaglutide, the key formulation behind Ozempic, has triggered a wave of affordable generics in India. While India has around 100 million diabetics and 250 million people battling obesity, treatment penetration is currently a mere 4-5%. Glenmark entered the fray in March with its semaglutide, GLIPIQ, and launched a weekly treatment starting at just Rs 325. Alok Malik, India Formulations Head, noted that “affordability is one of the biggest barriers to weight loss therapy, and our new vial-based format offers a flexible, cost-effective option for patients.”

    Nomura estimates that India’s semaglutide market could soar past Rs 12,000 crore over the next five years. If even 2% of the obese population starts therapy, weight-loss drug sales could generate over Rs 2,500 crore. This potential is supported by the fact that generic injectables are now 50-90% cheaper than innovator brands like Mounjaro, which can cost up to Rs 26,000 per shot.

    Meanwhile, ICICI Securities believes this "affordability factor" will be a game-changer, especially in Tier 2 and 3 cities where adoption has historically been low. As the price gap between entry-level semaglutide and premium alternatives widens, potentially reaching 86%, domestic adoption for mass diabetes and weight management is expected to jump, shifting these treatments from luxury options to mainstream healthcare essentials.

    3. Lodha Developers:

    Thisreal estate company rose 18.8% over the past week, driven by a strongQ4FY26 update and positive analyst views.

    The company reported its highest-ever quarterly pre-sales of Rs 5,890 crore in Q4FY26, up 23% YoY. Full-year pre-sales grew 16% to Rs 20,530 crore. Though it fell short of the Rs 21,000 crore guidance, management pins the blame on delayed March transactions due to geopolitical tensions, not flagging demand. Underlying sales momentum remains bullish.

    Lodha added 12 projects across key markets during the year. Total gross development value (GDV) additions reached around Rs 60,000 crore, 2.4 times its annual target. This strengthened its launch pipeline and improved revenue visibility.

    MD and CEO Abhishek Lodhasaid, "We are sitting on significant available supply, almost Rs 2 lakh crores of GDV is available for us to sell in the next 5 years." With this pipeline, the company is shifting its focus from business development to improving cash flows, speeding up execution, and reducing reliance on external funding over the next 24 months.

    Morgan Stanleyinitiated coverage with a ‘Buy’ call, expecting the stock to rise meaningfully over the next 60 days. The brokerage highlighted steady execution and potential from Lodha’s data centre business. It pointed to aplanned Rs 1.3 lakh crore data centre park in Maharashtra. This 2.5 gigawatt data centre project near Mumbai aims to generate stable annuity income. Lodha targets around Rs 1,500 crore in annual income by the end of the decade.

    Valuation remains attractive. The stocktrades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.6, well below its five-year average of 82.8. Forward EPS estimates indicate a potential upside of around 250.4% compared to historical PE levels.

    However, Jefferiesestimates that the near-term outlook for the real estate sector remains cautious amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Geopolitical uncertainty hasled to a “wait-and-watch” approach among wealthy buyers and Non-Resident Indians (NRIs). This delays purchases in high-value housing segments where they are key investors. Higher oil prices may also increase construction costs for materials such as steel, cement, and logistics. This caution is expected to impact the June quarter.

    4. FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa):

    This cosmeticsretailer surged 5.5% over the past week afterreporting a strong Q4 business update. The company expects net revenue growth to be in the “late twenties,” likely aboveForecaster estimates of 26%, which would mark its fastest pace in three years. It is also in talks toacquire a majority stake in Deepika Padukone’s skincare brand 82°E to strengthen its premium portfolio, though no binding agreement has been finalised.

    The business continues to scale efficiently, with around 85% ofrevenue coming from product sales and the rest from marketing and related services. Events like its 'Pink Love Sale' has led to growth in marketing income. MD & CEO Falguni Nayarhighlighted the role of technology, noting that AI will enable “more personalised journeys that can improve conversion.”

    Nykaa has over 19 million annual transactingcustomers, growing 25% YoY. To cater to this cohort and expand further, the company added 26 stores and integrated 11 Kiehl’s outlets in Q4, taking the total store count to 313. This reflects its continued focus on building an omnichannel presence.

    Nykaa is also speeding up its deliveries with Nykaa Now, currently active in 53 stores across seven major cities. By using its existing shops to fulfil orders quickly, the firm avoids the high cost of building delivery-only warehouses. This setup bridges the gap between physical shopping and instant delivery, encouraging customers to buy more often while keeping the company's costs down.

    Venturainitiated coverage on the stock with a target price of Rs 310. They highlight Nykaa’s rapid portfolio growth to Rs 2,000 crore over the past five years, and expect it to triple to Rs 6,000 in the next four years. They forecast the firm to deliver a revenue CAGR of 27%, with net profit doubling every year through 2028.

    5. NTPC:

    This power producer’s stock climbed 5.7% last week after the company signed a deal with Électricité de France, a French electric utility company, to jointly develop nuclear power projects in India. The deal will help the company expand its nuclear energy portfolio, in line with the Government’s target to achieve 100 GW capacity by 2047. 

    Over the past month, NTPC also took aggressive steps to expand its overall capacity. On March 28, the board approved a Rs 5,822 crore capex to build a 4.7 gigawatt-hour (GWh) battery energy storage system. The board also cleared a Rs 3,174 crore investment in its joint venture, Meja Urja Nigam. This money will fund stage II of the 2,400 MW Meja thermal power project.

    Following this approval, NTPC awarded a Rs 13,500 crore contract to Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL). As per the order, BHEL will design, build, and test the main plant, including the boiler, turbine, and generator, alongside the civil works for the Meja project.

    In addition, the company awarded Rs 1,078 crore in contracts to Enviro Infra Engineers and GR Infraprojects. These firms will install battery storage systems at NTPC’s thermal power plants in Karnataka, Telangana, and Maharashtra. Furthermore, its subsidiary, NTPC Green Energy, partnered with Nxtra Data to build renewable energy projects. This tie-up will supply round-the-clock green power to Nxtra’s data centres across India.

    Outlining the expansion plans, Chairman and Managing Director Gurdeep Singh said, “We have over 33 GW capacity under construction, including coal, hydro, and renewables. For thermal, we expect to commission 6.5 GW over the next three years.” He added that the company is balancing investments across traditional and clean energy. NTPC is focusing its resources on expanding existing thermal plants while staying open to selective acquisitions.

    Following these moves, UBS upgraded the stock to a ‘Buy’ rating from ‘Neutral’ and raised its target price to Rs 432, an 13.6% upside. Analysts expect power demand to surge amid growing data centre capacity, rising appliance sales, and higher electric vehicle adoption. The ongoing US-Iran conflict could also push the government to roll out stronger energy security policies, further benefiting the company.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    09 Apr 2026
    After the drop, are stock market valuations finally reasonable?

    After the drop, are stock market valuations finally reasonable?

    By Tejas MD

    The Nifty 50 opened sharply higher on Wednesday, jumping over 3% after the US and Iran agreed to a two week ceasefire, with Iran agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire is already fragile, after Israel bombed civilian neighborhoods in Lebanon, killing nearly 300 people including children and injuring thousands.

    Crude prices fell nearly 15% on ceasefire news.But the widespread bombing of refineries and petrochemical fields across Iran and the Gulf states over the past month is expected to keep oil supply tight and expensive, even if the ceasefire holds beyond two weeks.

    The last time we wrote about market valuations in November 2025, the Nifty 50 was near all-time highs and Goldman Sachs had upgraded India to “Overweight.”

    Now it's April and summer outside, but it's been winter for the markets. The Nifty 50 and Nifty Midcap 150 are in correction territory, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 flirted briefly with a bear market.

    The war hit both sentiment and supply chains. Goldman Sachs hascut its Nifty 50 target by 14% to 25,300. Moody’s has trimmed India’s FY27 growth forecast to 6%, flagging inflation risks.

    With all this uncertainty, how has the performance across major indices changed? Are market valuations finally more reasonable?

    Let’s dive in.

    Markets after the big drop and short jump: Nifty Midcap is the winner

    March was brutal across global markets, and India was no exception. The Nifty 50, Nifty Midcap 150, and Nifty Smallcap 100 fell by double digits over the month, dragging down returns.

    Right now looking at my portfolio has all the appeal of climbing on a weighing machine after Diwali. The chance of good news is low. Over the last two years, none of the indices below have delivered returns comparable to even bank FDs, which gave around 15% absolute returns over the last two years.

    Longer time frames have a better story to tell. The Midcap index continues to stand out. The Midcap 150 has outperformed its peers across years, and its five-year returns are more than double that of the Nifty 50.

    A year ago, valuations looked expensive for the Midcap index. With the recent correction however, midcaps offer strong performance with reasonable valuations.

    Even when adjusted for risk, midcaps come out ahead. Based on our analysis of the past 12 years, the Nifty Midcap 150 has delivered the highest average returns and CAGR. It also recorded the highest Sharpe ratio, meaning investors earnedbetter returns for each unit of risk taken, despite higher volatility than the Nifty 50.

    Smallcaps show the opposite trend. The Smallcap 100 has lower returns and higher volatility than midcaps, leading to weaker risk-adjusted returns.

    The correction, and even long-term returns, have not been uniform. Midcaps show relative strength, with a better balance of returns, valuations, and risk.

    Earnings catch up in midcaps, making them less expensive in PE

    The Nifty Midcap 150 has long traded at a premium, backed by stronger growth. That still holds. At a PE of 31.3, it remains the most expensive among the three major indices, but the gap has narrowed. Over the past year, its PE has dropped nearly 10% as earnings have begun to catch up.

    This shift is being driven by strong quarterly performance from companies like Hindustan Petroleum, Life Insurance Corporation of India, Lloyds Metals and Energy, and Waaree Energies. Solid profit growth across these names has helped bring overall valuations down.

    Growth momentum is also in favour of midcaps. In Q3FY26, midcap companies delivered 15.5% YoY revenue growth, ahead of the Nifty 50 at 9.3% and the Nifty Smallcap at 11.2%.

    Valuations are no longer stretched. All three indices are now trading below their historical PE levels, indicating a broader cooling in the market.

    Best and worst performers across indices

    One trend is especially clear. Metals and mining stocks have been among the strongest performers, even after the recent pullback due to the ongoing conflict. This is supported by firm global commodity prices and strong earnings from domestic players. 

    In contrast, IT stocks have struggled this year, with concerns around AI-led efficiencies and reduced hiring, along with slower global tech spending, delayed deal closures, and cautious client guidance.

    In the Nifty 50, metal names such as Hindalco Industries and Tata Steel feature among the top performers. On the other hand, IT majors such as Tata Consultancy Services and Wipro are among the laggards.

    Within the Nifty Midcap, industrial names have led the gains. Companies like GE Vernova and Hitachi Energy India are among the top performers, alongside National Aluminium Company and Multi-Commodity Exchange of India.

    On the weaker side, stocks like KPIT Technologies, Bajaj Housing Finance, and Jubilant FoodWorks are laggards.

    The picture is even more extreme in the Nifty Smallcap. It highlights the high-risk, high-reward nature of the segment. 

    The top five stocks have at least doubled over the past year, while the bottom five have nearly halved. Metals and mining names show up here as well, with Hindustan Copper and Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation among the top performers.

    Historical trends show that all three indices are now trading below their long-term valuation averages. But we must remember that “undervalued” is relative. Markets can stay under pressure and become even cheaper before stabilising.

    Despite all the celebrations in markets, the ceasefire has a qualifier: "temporary". Trump may wake up on the wrong side of the bed after a few days. Someone may try to sabotage the ceasefire deal. Oil prices will be the number to watch, given their impact on inflation and overall market sentiment.

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    The Baseline
    08 Apr 2026
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 8, 2026

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 8, 2026

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Oil And Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC): 

    Geojit BNP Paribas retains its ‘Buy’ call on this oil company, with a target price of Rs 322 per share, an upside of 14.9%. The Israel–Iran conflict currently affects the near-term outlook. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are raising freight, insurance, and input costs for refining and overseas operations. However, rising crude oil prices will likely support upstream revenues over the medium term, partially offsetting these pressures.

    Management is focusing on efficiency and controlling costs to manage market swings. The company is boosting its output of new well gas, targeting 24% of total gas production by FY27. This move should improve margins, as gas is more profitable than crude. ONGC is prioritising steady production growth and optimisation to create value.

    Analyst Arun Kailasan notes ONGC targets 42.5 million metric tonnes of oil and gas production by FY27. The company has already spent Rs 24,400 crore on projects in 9MFY26, and they expect another Rs 8,000 crore in Q4. Over 20 major projects, worth about Rs 77,000 crore, are underway. He believes new projects, stable gas output, and cost control will drive growth and provide clear earnings despite geopolitical risks.

    2. EPL: 

    ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this packaging company, with a target price of Rs 315 per share, an upside of 42.3%. The Israel–Iran war, however, negatively impacts EPL: roughly 30% of its revenue comes from Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, exposing it to demand and supply chain risks. Rising polymer prices and logistics costs pressure margins, given its reliance on oil-based raw materials.

    ICICISec’s optimism stems from EPL's merger with Indovida. This deal transforms EPL from a simple tube maker into a diverse packaging company. It adds rigid packaging like bottles and closures to its portfolio and strengthens its footprint in Asia and Africa.

    Management says the merger will immediately boost earnings and create benefits of scale. The merged entity is expected to deliver EBITDA of around Rs 1,750 crore in CY25, compared to EPL’s EBITDA of Rs 834 crore in FY25. The company also targets up to $50 million in savings from better sourcing and a wider distribution network.

    Analysts Sanjesh Jain and Mohit Mishra forecast double-digit revenue growth, thanks to a wider product range and new markets. Although rising raw material costs are a risk, the company is working to pass these increases on to customers.

    3. JK Cement: 

    Motilal Oswal retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this cement maker but lowers the target price to Rs 6,040 per share, a 10.3% upside. JK's stock fell 8.4% last quarter and 15.4% over six months. The US-Iran war is a negative weight on the stock, with the company’s UAE plant, its global export hub for white cement, facing operational and export disruptions. Shipments from the UAE and petcoke imports to India are also facing higher freight costs and delays.

    Analysts Sanjeev Kumar Singh and Mudit Agarwal believe that its cost-saving efforts and aggressive expansion plan will help counter the impact of the war. Management pointed to healthy domestic demand in Q4FY26. However, higher petcoke and packaging costs will increase expenses.

    Singh and Agarwal note that using more green power and streamlining logistics will help offset rising costs. Management aims to expand its capacity to 50 million tonnes per year by FY30-31, funding this growth with a Rs 9,000 crore investment in new projects in Jaisalmer, Mudappur and Panna. Analysts expect the company to grow revenue by 15% and net profit by 13% annually through FY28.

    4. Kajaria Ceramics: 

    Prabhudas Lilladher maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this ceramics maker, raising its target price to Rs 1,147 per share, a 9.3% upside. Kajaria’s stock has fallen 12.7% in the last six months. The US-Iran war will have a negative impact on the company’s profits by raising fuel costs, and also could spark domestic price wars as stalled exports from the Morbi region in Gujarat (accounting for about 85% of India’s ceramic production) flood the local market.

    Analysts Praveen Sahay and Rahul Shah, however, remain positive on Kajaria. They believe it can gain market share as competitors face bigger disruptions. They also highlight its strong brand, shift to higher-value products, and resilient margins, despite soft demand.

    Management expects 7-8% volume growth in Q4FY26 as dealer inventories return to normal. Supply issues in the Morbi region give Kajaria a chance to capture more market share. The company is sticking to its 17-18% EBITDA margin guidance, helped by price hikes, healthy sales, and a better product mix.

    Sahay and Shah note that gas price volatility is a key risk to watch, especially for outsourced production. They add that exports are weak due to high logistics costs and container shortages, which will affect Q4FY26 results.

    5. Granules India:

    Emkay initiates coverage on this pharma company with a ‘Buy’ call and a target price of Rs 800 per share, an upside of 25.8%. The positive outlook is due to strong growth in the US market, especially in controlled substances like opioids, sedatives, and stimulants, which now make up 30% of revenue. This segment has grown rapidly due to market share gains and a reliable supply chain, improving both revenue and margins.

    Management is shifting focus to more profitable areas, moving from raw ingredients to finished drugs and from simple generics to complex products. This strategy has steadily improved gross margins. The company performed well despite regulatory problems at its Gagillapur plant in Telangana, and a potential clearance could pave the way for future approvals and growth. New ventures, like its peptide business, are expected to grow over time.

    Analysts Shashank Krishnakumar and Bhavya Gandhi expect earnings to grow around 20% annually through FY28. This growth will come from strong performance in controlled substances and a greater share of finished drugs. They believe a better product mix and cost efficiencies will sustain margin improvement.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    02 Apr 2026
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 2, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 2, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo):

    The stock of this airline company rose by over 5% on April 1 after it named William Walsh as its next CEO, effective August 3. Walsh is currently the Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), and viewed as a "steady hand" for an airline navigating geopolitical turbulence and regulatory scrutiny. Investors are betting his global expertise will stabilize the airline when he transitions from his current role this July.

    The outlook for IndiGo hasn't been entirely clear skies; its stock has fallen about 18% since the Iran conflict began on February 28. Between strict new pilot duty-time rules and rising hostilities in the Gulf, the market leader is facing a triple threat of demand, cost, and revenue pressure. Several brokerages have preemptively lowered their profit and margin estimates for the upcoming fiscal year. Its stock appears on a screener of stocks having a low to medium Trendlyne momentum score.

    Regulators are also keeping IndiGo on a shorter leash, opting for a "moderate" approach to flight approvals following the airline's major operational meltdown last December. While IndiGo planned to launch its summer schedule with 2,000 daily flights in April, executives now warn of possible cuts. Since the schedule was set before the Middle East crisis escalated, uncertainty may force a significant reduction in services. 

    Analysts at Motilal Oswal highlight that the US-Iran escalation and closed Pakistani airspace have disrupted routes that carry 25% of global traffic. With Gulf operations contributing 18-20% of annual revenue, the current suspension is creating a major Q4 shortfall. Financially, the stakes are high, as the brokerage estimates that every $1 increase in crude oil prices trims profit by Rs 360 crore, leading to an estimated Rs 1,600 crore rise in fuel expenses, which already account for one-third of total costs.

    ICICI Securities maintained its ‘Buy’ rating despite all the headwinds, but reduced the target price to Rs 5,210. While expensive fuel and a weaker Rupee have pushed up internal costs, higher ticket prices are helping cushion the blow. The brokerage estimates the cost per available seat kilometer (CASK) will hit Rs 3.5 in Q4FY26, before stabilizing at Rs 3.4 throughout FY27 and FY28 as operations hopefully normalize.

    2. Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL):

    This aerospace & defence stock jumped 5.3% on Wednesday after the company reported healthy growth for FY26. Revenue jumped 4% to Rs 32,350 crore as the firm executed orders and sped up deliveries. Discussing the outlook, Chairman and Managing Director Dr DK Sunil said, “The outstanding manufacturing orders provide long-term revenue growth visibility over the next 7-8 years, with a focus on strong execution.”

    The order book climbed 34.3% to Rs 2.5 lakh crore. Massive Ministry of Defence contracts for aircraft, helicopters and engines fueled this surge. To manage this backlog, HAL opened a third Tejas fighter jet production line and a second basic trainer aircraft line at its Nasik factory. The company also partnered with Mishra Dhatu Nigam to create a strategic “metal bank” for nickel, cobalt, molybdenum, and other high-performance superalloys. This move ensures a steady supply of critical raw materials and reduces reliance on foreign suppliers for these rare metals.

    However, HAL’s large order book led to the company being excluded from the fifth-generation stealth fighter jet project after failing to qualify under the evaluation framework laid down by the Defence Research and Development Organisation. The framework states that companies with an order book greater than 3x of their revenue would not be picked for the stealth fighter jet programme. HAL’s order book is currently 7.7x of its annual revenue.

    HAL also faces short-term supply chain risks. The company relies heavily on Israeli aerospace giants for technology and parts. It works closely with Israeli firms like Israel Aerospace Industries, Elbit Systems, and Rafael to import crucial electronics, radars, and warfare systems for its Tejas and Su-30MKI jets. The US-Iran conflict threatens the production schedules of these Israeli suppliers. But the geopolitical tensions also create an incentive to manufacture more defence equipment locally over the long term.

    Following the provisional turnover update for FY26, Citigroup retained a ‘Buy’ rating on HAL with a target price of Rs 5,560, implying a 50.8% upside. The brokerage believes the rapidly expanding order book guarantees steady revenue growth over the long term.

    3. Eternal:

    Thisfood delivery company’s stock surged 4.8% on March 24,supported by a platform fee hike and improving sentiment around profitability.

    The trigger was Zomato’s decision to raise its platform fee by 20% to Rs 15 per order. This move helps offset rising costs like fuel and protects profit margins. Analysts at Elara Capital estimate each Rs 1 increase adds nearly Rs 120 crore to its earnings, keeping the company on track to achieve its FY28 EBITDA margin guidance of 5–6%.

    The company isn't worried about losing customers. The revised feeaccounts for only ~3.1% of the average order value of Rs 475, making it unlikely to affect customer behaviour. Past trends also show that gradual fee hikes have not disrupted order growth.

    The stockrose another 3.3% on April 1 after HDFC Securities upgraded it to a “Buy,” citing a potential upside of 46.7%, driven by expectations of a stronger Q4FY26. Trendlyne’sForecaster also sees revenue growing 13.7% and profits rising 46.6% from the previous quarter.

    Analysts believe the Gold membership program will fuel growth in its food delivery business, attracting more users and orders. They project a significant yearly jump: 20% more monthly users, 24% more orders, and an 18% rise in order value.

    The company's quick commerce arm, Blinkit, is expected to maintain momentum. They project a 10% quarterly growth in order value, outpacing competitor Swiggy Instamart (~3%), supported by the addition of dark stores, stable daily orders, and near break-even profitability.

    Looking beyond food, the company isinvesting in its "District" segment. Despite recent losses, this venture hopes to create a broader consumer platform.

    Commenting on District's outlook, CFO Akshant Goyal said, “For us to deliver 30% CAGR over the next three to four years, it doesn't necessarily mean that the industry has to grow that much. A lot of it can also come from market share gains, and we are building that into our plans right now.” Analysts note Q4 is seasonally weak for this segment, and anticipate continued investment.

    4. PVR Inox:

    Thismultiplex operator is witnessing a strong content-led recovery, backed by a record year for Indian cinema. CY2025 saw box office collections touch Rs 13,395 crore, with 37 films crossing the Rs 100 crore mark. Popular releases like Dhurandhar helped drive footfalls higher, pushing occupancy up to 28.5%.

    Managementbelieves the “content cycle is now well-oiled,” supported by a steady pipeline of Hindi, regional, and Hollywood films. This momentum is already reflecting in revenues, with ticket sales contributing over half of total income, while food and beverage spending adds more than 30%. Kamal Gianchandani, who oversees business planning and strategy, said, “The best years are ahead of us,” pointing to a strong outlook for 2026 and 2027.

    Expansion remains measured, with a clear pivot toward asset-light growth. The company is scaling its FOCO (franchise-owned, company-operated) model, where developers invest most of the capital while PVR manages operations. It has 149 screens signed under this model andadded over 75 screens in FY26. The company plans to open around 150 screens in FY27, focusing on underpenetrated Tier II and III cities, while keeping annual capex in the Rs 350–400 crore range.

    At the same time, the company is focusing on deleveraging. Net debt has declined to Rs 365 crore, down by over Rs 1,000 crore since the merger with INOX. Thesale of its 4700BC business has further improved liquidity, keeping the company on track to become net debt-free by early FY27. Lower leverage and controlled capex are expected to reduce interest costs and support margin expansion, with EBITDAmargins at 18% already nearing pre-COVID levels.

    The company appears in ascreener of stocks where brokers upgraded their recommendations in the past three months. Geojit BNP Paribasmaintains an ‘Accumulate’ rating with a target price of Rs 1,065. The brokerage expects a recovery-led growth trajectory, with revenue projected to grow at 11% over FY26–28 and margins improving steadily as operating leverage kicks in.

    5. Thermax: 

    This heavy-equipment company rose 1.4% in the last week as its subsidiary bagged an order worth Rs 1,600 crore. The order is for an 800 MW thermal plant in Madhya Pradesh and covers the supply and installation of the boiler.

    Thermax’s order book stood at Rs 12,641 crore by 9MFY26, up 11% YoY. The growth came from inflows in industrial products and export-led infra work, including refinery projects. 

    Forecaster expects revenue to rise marginally by 2.5% in FY26, while net profit is likely to remain flat. MarketMind notes that about 25% of the order book is tied to refinery and petrochemical projects, with meaningful exposure to the Middle East, increasing risks of delays and higher costs where cross-border movement is involved.

    CEO Ashish Bhandari said that the profit in the chemicals business fell by about Rs 48 crore from last year, mainly due to new capacity costs and weak volumes. He added that margins may improve, but are “unlikely to return to earlier highs soon.” The company has also been more selective in taking new infra orders, choosing to avoid projects with higher execution risks even if it slows growth in the near term.

    ICICI Direct had upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’ with a higher target price of Rs 3,400. It expects execution to improve after a weak phase, with margins in the infra segment already showing recovery. The brokerage also points to a gradual shift toward more stable segments like industrial products and cooling solutions. 

    Shareholding data indicates that mutual funds have increased their stake over the past five months, signalling growing institutional confidence despite a muted near-term outlook.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    02 Apr 2026
    Gold rising, crude expensive, portfolio volatile: the new financial year begins

    Gold rising, crude expensive, portfolio volatile: the new financial year begins

    There's no other way to say it. Trump lies like he breathes. He claims Iran asked him to be the next Supreme Leader, that he passed cognitive tests no other US President has (these are actually tests for dementia), and that Iran sent him presents (one account joked the present was a "fake Gucci bag"), At multiple points over March, he claimed he was close to ending the war with Iran. 

    On Tuesday, he said that the US is "winding down" the war in Iran, and will be out within "two or three more weeks". US markets rose sharply, and Indian markets also jumped. 

    But the first worrying signal is the phrase. For Trump, "two or three weeks" is like the Indian "I'll be there in two minutes". It's a placeholder for an actual time, or could be a delaying tactic. US troops are still arriving in steady numbers in the middle east, and the Hormuz strait is still blocked, the three parties, US, Israel and Iran, are still heavily bombing each other. 

    The second worrying sign is Trump saying this ahead of a three day weekend for the US, with markets closed for Good Friday on April 3. Perhaps he imagines that his ground troops will invade Iran on Thursday night and manage to seize Kharg island before Monday's market open, allowing the US to claim significant progress. In a national address he made on Wednesday, he also threatened to bomb Iran "back to the Stone Age", as US and Israel have been striking civilian infrastructure like electricity plants and pharmacies.

    What does all this confusion mean for our portfolios? Commodities, despite Trump's possibly fake announcements, are showing warning signs. Economists say a recession is likely to emerge in the middle of the year. 

    Let's be realistic. In a world led by madmen eager to start and prolong wars, we need to clearly break down the kind of portfolio action we need to take. 

    Portfolio moves that make sense in FY27

    Crude oil prices will remain high: Goldman Sachs notes that the damage to local production has already been significant. The damage to oil fields from the war has caused crude oil production from OPEC is down by 7 million barrels per day in March. Oil prices are likely to hover around $100 per barrel, raising India's import costs considerably. Global visible oil inventories have declined by 130 million barrels since the conflict began.

    Polymarket bets put a 92% chance of Brent staying at $105 in mid June, reflecting the market's near-certainty that prices will hold elevated through the second quarter even if the conflict de-escalates modestly.

    In this environment, investing in specific stocks that hold up in a high oil price environment, makes more sense. ONGC is an upstream oil player which benefits in margins when oil prices go up.

    Sugar companies are another beneficiary of higher oil prices, owing to government policy. When expensive crude causes the import bill to go up, the government reliably accelerates its ethanol blending program to substitute crude with locally made ethanol.

    Sugar companies like Balrampur Chini Mills divert sugar and molasses heavily towards ethanol production during these periods, due to high government procurement prices for ethanol. 

    Praj Industries is a manufacturer that operates in a very specific space: it makes the plants and technology for sugar companies to distill ethanol, which soars in demand when oil prices rise. 

    Gold is glittering - but don't fall too hard

    In a world where safe havens look much less safe than before, it makes sense to adjust portfolios accordingly. Gold has re-emerged as a safe bet since 2025, It has however proved to be quite volatile, despite steady central bank buying in the metal. 

    If you already hold Gold ETFs or Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs), your year gains are probably looking pretty good. But buying gold right now at the current high prices may not be a great idea. Instead, its best to keep gold at around 15% of your portfolio as an inflation hedge. If you have more than this, it may be time to partially book some profits. 

    The most vulnerable sectors?

    The impact of high oil and gas prices seeps through all sectors, from packaging to retail to fertilizer. We drive our cars, dress in polyester, and consume food grown from naphtha fuelled crops. But it is sectors with the least amount of pricing power that get hit the most from oil-linked inflation: tyre and paint stocks, where 40-60% of raw material is from crude derivatives (Apollo Tyres, Asian Paints), FMCG companies (HUL), and auto stocks. The impact of this will be most visible one quarter later, in the Q1FY27 results, as these companies get hit in their margins. Companies with the least pricing power in these sectors like entry level auto players (Maruti Suzuki) will tend to be the hardest hit.

    These stocks tend to see both spike in raw material costs and demand destruction as inflation rises. Tyre replacement and paint purchases decline, and cost sensitive consumers in FMCG and entry level auto back off. Rebalancing portfolios away from these sectors over the next few weeks, as the impact of expensive, scarce oil makes its way through the Indian economy, may be the sensible choice. 

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