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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    08 May 2026, 05:46PM
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - May 8, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - May 8, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Godrej Properties (GPL):

    Thisrealty firm's shares rose 3.5% on May 4 after it reported itsQ4FY26 results. Net profit surged 70.1% YoY, driven by strong inventory sales, while revenue rose 42%, supported by healthy housing demand and a robust launch pipeline. The company exceeded its FY26 business development target by over 2X, creating Rs 42,100 crore in future booking potential with 18 new project additions.

    However, this massive pipeline relies heavily on just a few locations. Mumbai, Bengaluru, and Punecurrently hold 56% of the company's 22.8 million square feet (msf) of unsold homes. The upcoming 80 msf of new launches reveals the same trend, tying 59% of new homes to these three cities. This heavy geographic focus creates a serious risk if any of these local markets slow down.

    Analystsworry that AI disrupting IT jobs might hurt housing demand in tech hubs like Bengaluru and Pune. GPL management however, dismisses these fears. Executive Chairperson Pirojsha Godrej,said “The worry that AI is somehow going to lead to core residential demand is probably a little bit overdone.” They believe strong buyer interest across Mumbai, Hyderabad, and other cities, along with a diversified project pipeline, will easily offset any dips in demand.

    Looking ahead to FY27, GPL hasset a booking value target of Rs 39,000 crore, with a collection goal of Rs 24,000 crore and a delivery target of 13.5 msf. Godrejsaid, “We remain focused on delivering our return on equity target of 20% by FY28 by stepping up our speed on execution and project delivery.”

    Company promoters believe in GPL's future, as it appears in ascreener of stocks where promoters have increased their shareholding QoQ. They spent Rs 2,373 crore tobuy an additional 4.5% stake in the business, taking total ownership to 51.7%, signaling strong insider confidence.

    Despite the strong numbers, BOB Capital Marketsdowngraded the stock from ‘Buy’ to ‘Hold.’ The brokerage warned that global risks, like the West Asia conflict and high interest rates, will likely dampen homebuyer enthusiasm. They expect booking growth to slow to a 13.4% annual rate between FY27 and FY29.

    2. RailTel Corporation:

    Thistelecom infrastructure company rose 5.9% in the past week after its order bookjumped 79% to Rs 10,766 crore in FY26, with non-railway projects making up more than three-fourths of the pipeline. Chairman & MD Sanjai Kumar said, "Rs 3,000-3,500 crore of orders should get converted into revenue this year," highlighting high revenue visibility for FY27.

    Revenue grew 28% YoY to Rs 1,669 crore inQ4FY26, driven by consistent execution in the projects business and a 25% rise in telecom services revenue. Net profit rose 25%, helped by telecom operating margins jumping nearly ten percentage points to 33.4%. 

    RailTel provides connectivity to CCTV cameras installed across railway stations as part of a video surveillance project for the railways. This brought in recurring revenue under the telecom segment this quarter. The company also recognised some delayed payments from earlier quarters, and management said this could continue as more stations go live over the next few quarters. This suggests the margin improvement may not be temporary.

    Data center revenue rose 59% in FY26, with Kumar calling it the company’s main growth driver going forward. To support this expansion, RailTel is building a 10 megawatt (MW) data center in Noida, with the first 5 MW phase expected to be ready next year. The company is also setting up city-level data centers in Indore, Ujjain, Chandigarh, and Visakhapatnam this year as part of a broader plan to build 102 such facilities across India.

    Third-party partners are funding much of the real estate infrastructure, helping keep RailTel’s capital spending under control.

    ICICI Securitiesupgraded the stock to ‘Reduce’ with a higher target price of Rs 300. The brokerage flagged free cash flow (FCF) falling more than 86% between FY24 and FY26 as the projects business tied up more cash in working capital. While it expects FCF to recover next year, the gap between earnings growth and cash generation remains a key thing to watch.

    3. Bajaj Auto:

    The stock of this two- and three-wheeler manufacturer hit a 52-week high of Rs 10,740 on May 7 after reporting a strong Q4 FY26 performance. Its Q4 net profit soared 103.2% YoY to Rs 3,661.9 crore, driven by higher sales of premium motorcycles. Revenue didn't lag either, leaping 41.8% to Rs 18,493.9 crore. To top it off, the board approved a massive Rs 5,633 crore buyback, offering to scoop up 46.9 lakh shares at a premium price of Rs 12,000 each.

    April was a global victory lap for the brand. Net exports skyrocketed 83% to 2.7 lakh units, actually overtaking domestic volumes (2.5 lakh units). Three-wheelers were the stars of the show with a 125% export jump, while two-wheelers rose 78%. Motilal Oswal highlighted that in Nigeria, the local currency finally stabilized, giving dealers the financial confidence to restock, while Sri Lanka’s broader economic recovery reopened trade opportunities. These two factors were major contributors to the surge in exports.

    Its quarterly net profit and operating revenue surpassed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 4.8% and 1.7%, respectively. With exports accounting for over half of total volumes, Bajaj strengthened its position as a net foreign exchange earner, providing a hedge against domestic cost pressures. The stock appears on a screener for companies with 10% increase in share price over three months, with rising net profit growth.

    Back home, growth was a more modest 13%, as entry-level buyers felt the pinch of geopolitical tensions and fuel costs. Executive Director Rakesh Sharma noted that the two-wheeler industry saw a slight dip in demand between Q4 and April. He said the company is closely monitoring fuel prices to assess how the demand environment shapes up. However, he added that expectations of higher petrol prices are boosting consumer sentiment toward electric vehicles, strengthening growth in the segment during April.

    Looking toward FY27, the company aims to dominate the 125cc and 150cc motorcycle segments. Sharma confirmed the strategy: “Through Q1 and the rest of FY27, the team will remain absolutely focused on gaining share in the 125cc and 150cc segments, riding the continued industry growth, and this will be done based on new product launches and brand development in exports.”

    Axis Direct has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on Bajaj Auto and hiked the target price to Rs 11,410. The brokerage points to a strong "multi-cylinder" growth story driven by premium motorcycles, a rebound in exports, and a disciplined scale-up in the EV and three-wheeler segments. Even with minor supply chain hiccups in the EV space, Bajaj’s capital-efficient model and its expanding financial services business via Bajaj Auto Credit (BACL) provide a good foundation, according to the analysts.

    4. Dr. Lal Pathlabs:

    Shares of thisdiagnostic company surged 15.1% on May 4 after the company reported its best quarterly revenue growth in four years. InQ4FY26, revenue grew 16.6% YoY, fueled by a 12.9% increase in volume samples and a better mix of tests.

    But it wasn't all good news. Net profit fell 15.2%. Higher payments to collection centers and more ad spending squeezed EBITDA margins, whichdropped 150 bps to 26.6%.

    The company is now shifting its focus to preventive healthcare. Executive Chairman Arvind Lalsaid, “India’s healthcare landscape is witnessing an emerging trend, moving from episodic care (reactive testing) to a wellness-oriented diagnostic model (proactive screening).” He added that this shift is being driven by an ageing population and rising chronic diseases.

    To capture this shift, the company launched Sovaaka, a premium concierge-led wellness service. CEO Shankha Banerjeedescribed it as "a foray into AI-based precision health screening.” The launch expands the company’s offerings beyond traditional pathology testing and towards preventive care.

    Looking ahead, managementprojects revenue growth in the low-to-mid teens for FY27. They plan to achieve this by attracting more patients, not by raising prices. They guide EBITDA margins to be between 27–28%, and will invest Rs 100–120 crore to add new labs and advanced centers.

    Managementstates that the ongoing tensions in the Middle East impact the supply chain. However, it notes that strong inventory and long-term contracts will block any immediate problems. Still, the company imports most of its testing chemicals. If disruptions continue or oil-linked input costs rise, profits could shrink in the coming quarters.

    Following the results, Nomurakept its ‘Buy’ rating and raised the target price to Rs 1,860 from Rs 1,800. The brokerage cited that the stock is trading near its seven-year low valuation. They expect an EPS CAGR of 15% over FY27–29, driven by strong volume growth and acquisition-led expansion, supported by a robust balance sheet.

    5. Waaree Energies: 

    This electrical equipment maker’s stock plunged 11% on April 30 after the company reported mixed Q4FY26 results. EBITDA margins shrank by 400 basis points due to high silver & copper prices and soaring freight costs caused by the West Asia conflict. A drop in high-margin export sales also hurt margins. Additionally, the company had to buy expensive solar cells from outside suppliers to meet demand for its modules. 

    Revenue soared 109.1%, and net profit jumped 71.5%, despite the margin squeeze. Revenue beat Forecaster estimates, while net profit missed estimates due to the drop in EBITDA margins. Surging solar module sales and inventory clearance drove this top-line growth. Sales in the core solar module business (~88% of revenue) and the engineering & construction segment (~12% of revenue) more than doubled during the quarter. Strong domestic and export demand, new factory capacity, and faster project execution fueled these gains. The company has a robust order book of Rs 53,000 crore, with a pipeline exceeding 100 GW.

    CEO Jignesh Rathod outlined the positive outlook, stating, “We continue to remain upbeat on our growth prospects and guide for EBITDA of Rs 7,000-7,700 crores for FY27.” To reach these goals, management plans to invest Rs 30,000 crore over the next two years to build a fully integrated clean energy platform.

    The company will spend Rs 10,000 crore of this budget to build a 20-gigawatt-hour battery cell and pack manufacturing plant. Waaree also plans to expand its inverter capacity to 4 GW from 3.1 GW and scale up hydrogen electrolyser production. To fund these plans, the board approved a Rs 10,000 crore fundraise through a share sale to institutional investors.

    Following the results, Nuvama retained a ‘Buy’ rating on Waaree Energies and raised its target price to Rs 4,375, implying a 35.4% upside. The brokerage expects EBITDA to climb 25% in FY27. Stronger performance in the high-margin wafer and cell manufacturing businesses, along with expansions into battery storage, inverters, and transformers, will drive this earnings boost.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    07 May 2026

    What drove multibaggers in FY26: Order books, commodity cycles and turnaround plays

    By Anagh Keremutt

    As the FY26 earnings season draws to a close, the fourth quarter has investors paying closer attention to management commentary. Rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions have made the outlook quite uncertain. 

    PL Capital expects Nifty50 earnings growth in FY26 to slow by two percentage points from the 6% logged in FY25. Amnish Aggarwal, Co-Head Institutional Equities at PL Capital, said, “While India’s long-term outlook remains intact, inflation pressures, high interest rates and weak foreign demand could weigh on economic growth in the short–term.”

    While the Nifty500 had a weak year overall, registering a negative return of 2% in FY26, a small group of stocks delivered multibagger returns. In FY25, 10 stocks within the Nifty500 gave multibagger returns, with gains being spread across consumer, telecom and defence stocks.

    FY26 looked very different, with most of the 11 multibaggers coming from industrials, metals, capital market-linked businesses and select auto companies. Strong order inflows, rising commodity prices, and improving margins were the key triggers behind these rallies.

    “Show me the money” is what investors are saying, according to analysts, and fundamentals will be key to future rallies. “The strong rally seen during 2020-22 led to higher stock valuations. The years since then have been a period where earnings growth has been catching up to valuation,” said Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Anand Rathi. “FY26 is a transition phase to a more earnings-driven uptrend, rather than a period of explosive returns,” he added.

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at the Nifty500 multibaggers in FY26 and the factors that drove their gains.

    Strong order books drive power equipment multibaggers

    For many power equipment companies, investors reacted before profits improved. Large order wins through FY25 gave visibility of future growth, pushing these stocks sharply higher in FY26.

    GE Vernova ended the previous financial year with its order book doubling, helping drive a 155% rise in the stock during FY26. The momentum in order inflows continued, with the backlog rising over 13% to Rs 14,380 crore by 9MFY26. As more grid and export projects moved into execution, EBITDA margins expanded 910 basis points (bps) to 27.1%.

    Hitachi Energy’s order inflows surged 228% in FY25, driven by transmission and renewable energy projects. The revenue visibility helped the stock jump over 103% and by 9MFY26, these orders started reflecting in earnings, with net profit more than tripling YoY. Its order backlog reached a record Rs 29,872 crore by December 2025, supported by demand from utilities, industries, and data centres.

    Commodity-linked multibaggers rose amid volatile global prices

    Four multibagger stocks in FY26 rallied as global commodity prices surged amid rising demand and supply shortages. The volatility was further exacerbated by geopolitical uncertainties like tariffs and export curbs by key producers.

    Global aluminium prices rose 30.5% in 2025, marking the largest annual gain since 2021. Sustained demand from EVs, renewable energy infrastructure and construction all played a role in the price surge amid fears of supply shortages. National Aluminium (Nalco) jumped over 130% as the global demand fed directly into the company’s performance, with alumina sales volumes rising 30.7% in FY26 and production reaching a record 23 lakh tonnes.

    Nalco’s Managing Director, Brijendra Pratap Singh, noted that the company has already reached the “upper limit of capacity in metal production during the year.”

    Copper prices soared in 2025 to record highs, with 3-month LME prices exceeding $12,000 per tonne due to a severe structural supply shortage colliding with surging demand. Hindustan Copper, being one of the few direct beneficiaries in India, rose over 118% in FY26. By 9MFY26, revenue jumped by 43.5% while net profit surged over 71%, supported by higher realizations and improved output from key mines.

    Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation’s 108.6% rise in FY26 came from steady demand for lignite, a key fuel for thermal power and industrial use. Despite growth in renewables, India continues to rely on thermal sources for round-the-clock power. This supported GMDC’s core mining business, with profit before tax surging 70% in 9MFY26, aided by cost control and a one-time tax refund.

    Volatile commodity prices also benefited companies that don’t mine or produce metals. MCX rose over 127% in FY26 as volatility in commodity prices drove trading activity across energy, bullion, and metals. Average daily trading activity in futures and options more than doubled in 9MFY26, which supported 89% growth in net profit while EBITDA margins expanded 700 bps to 71%.

    Turnaround plays were rewarded by investors

    Some companies entered FY26 after reducing debt, improving margins, or shifting towards higher-value products.

    Aditya Infotech became the best-performing stock in the Nifty 500 in FY26, soaring 166.6% after listing in August 2025. The company reduced debt from around Rs 466 crore in June 2025 to about Rs 68 crore by September 2025, lowering interest costs and improving profitability. Net profit more than doubled in 9MFY26 as the company gained market share and shifted towards higher-margin IP-based products. EBITDA margins expanded 395 bps as IP products contributed nearly 75% of the portfolio.

    Ather Energy rose 137.4% in FY26 as profitability improved sharply. EBITDA losses narrowed by 13 percentage points to -23% in FY25 as the company reduced costs per vehicle and improved gross margins. The improvement continued through FY26, with EBITDA margins improving to -6.7% for the full year and reaching near breakeven at -2.5% in Q4FY26. Lower battery costs, better product mix, and operating leverage supported the turnaround as volumes grew 69%.

    New business verticals power multibaggers in FY26

    Some stocks surged on defence orders, expansion into new businesses, or early exposure to themes like AI.

    Force Motors rose 129.2% in FY26 after exiting weaker segments and focusing on shared mobility and specialised vehicles. A March 2025 order to supply nearly 3,000 Gurkha vehicles to the Indian Defence Forces further strengthened this business. The strategy reflected in FY26 earnings, with net profit rising 51% and revenue growing 12%.

    Post its listing in late May 2025, Belrise Industries surged 112% in FY26 after investors began pricing in its expansion into passenger vehicles, EVs, aerospace, and defence. The company announced Rs 800 crore of expansion plans and entered passenger vehicles and aerospace through the H-One India and SDM acquisitions. The growth reflected in execution, with 9MFY26 revenue rising 16% and net profit surging 51%.

    As one of the few listed proxies for the AI theme in India, Netweb Technologies jumped 103.6% in FY26 as investors saw early signs of strong AI-led demand. Revenue, EBITDA, and net profit more than doubled in Q1FY26. Managing Director Sanjay Lodha said, “AI revenue quadrupled amid rising enterprise adoption across sectors.” AI systems contributed over 43% of FY26 revenue, while overall revenue rose 90% and net profit jumped 80.9%.

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    With so much news hitting us at the start of the week, what do you think was the REAL driver behind Monday's market rally?

    May 4, 2026

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    The Baseline
    06 May 2026
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - May 6, 2026

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - May 6, 2026

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Phoenix Mills: 

    ICICI Direct retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this realty company, with a target price of Rs 2,200, an upside of 21.7%. The company delivered strong Q4FY26 results, boosting revenue by 21% YoY and net profit by 40%. All its businesses, retail, office leasing, and hospitality, contributed to this growth, with strong consumer spending.

    The mall business remains a primary growth engine. Retail consumption surged 31% to Rs 4,261 crore, driven by strong demand in jewellery, electronics, and fashion. Better occupancy and tenant mix in malls in Pune and Bengaluru will likely boost rental income. Management forecasts double-digit consumption growth in FY27. Phoenix Mills is also embarking on a significant expansion, seeing growth in its retail portfolio to 18 million sq ft (msf) from 11.5 msf by 2030, with new projects in major cities.

    Analysts Ronald Siyoni and Samarth Khandelwal expect consistent earnings growth from increasing rental income, higher office occupancy, and new project execution. Lower borrowing costs and improved cash flow further strengthen the outlook. They praise the company's diverse growth plans, but note that the project completion times require monitoring.

    2. Dalmia Bharat: 

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this cement company, with a target price of Rs 2,430, an upside of 25%. Analysts Uttam K Srimal and Shikha Doshi remain positive on the stock, citing its robust capacity expansion, favourable pricing environment, and disciplined cost management driving near-term earnings growth. Dalmia Bharat reported stable Q4FY26 results, with cement volumes increasing 3% YoY.

    Management says it is also prioritising long-term growth. The company is adding 12 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of cement capacity across Kadapa, Pune, and Belgaum, alongside a new bulk terminal in Chennai by Q2FY28. Dalmia Bharat is also actively reducing operating costs. It already cut costs by Rs 100 per tonne in FY26 and aims for another Rs 150-200 per tonne reduction over the next two years, leveraging more renewable energy and process improvements.

    Srimal and Doshi forecast revenue, EBITDA, and net profit to grow at CAGRs of 8%, 15%, and 25%, respectively, for FY27–28. They estimate EBITDA margins of 21–22%, supported by better pricing, renewable energy adoption, and an improved product mix. They believe the stock is well-positioned to benefit from industry consolidation and market share gains.

    3. Ultratech Cement: 

    BOB Capital Markets maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this cement producer, with a target price of Rs 14,401, an upside of 20.5%. The company reported healthy results in Q4FY26: revenue grew 11.8% YoY, and net profit climbed 20.5%, boosted by higher domestic sales.

    Analysts Milind Raginwar and Ayush Dugar believe that Ultratech’s focus on cost savings to prepare for industry challenges is the correct strategy over raising prices. They note cost savings are progressing, thanks to improved clinker efficiency, greater use of green energy, and reduced logistics expenses.

    Management stated that domestic cement capacity increased by 8 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) to 200.1 MTPA, and the company remains on track to reach 242.5 MTPA by FY28. They plan an annual capex of up to Rs 10,000 crore in the near term. This investment will fund production efficiency enhancements and capacity expansion at India Cements and Kesoram Industries. 

    Raginwar and Dugar observe that the company has maintained high capacity utilisation despite bumpy demand, indicating that utilisation rates will improve further. They expect the firm to deliver revenue and net profit CAGRs of 13% and 20%, respectively, over FY27-28.

    4. Nippon Life India Asset Management: 

    Emkay maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this asset management company, with a target price of Rs 1,150, an upside of 5.5%. The company delivered a strong Q4FY26, with revenue climbing 30.4% YoY. This growth was driven by a 30% increase in assets under management (AUM) and a 60-basis-point expansion in market share, which now stands at 8.9%, its highest level since June 2019.

    Management reported strong interest in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with assets growing 16% sequentially. This helped boost the revenue yield to 41.3 basis points, thanks to a larger share of high-yielding commodity ETFs. The company anticipates that new total expense ratio regulations will have only a minor impact of 3-4 basis points and plans to offset some costs by passing them to distributors.

    Analysts Avinash Singh and Mahek Shah consider Nippon Life India AMC one of the fastest-growing large asset managers. Strong equity inflow market share, leadership in ETFs, and consistent retail participation will drive earnings growth through FY27-28. They expect ~20% AUM CAGR over FY27-29. Singh and Shah remain confident in the company's ability to achieve profitable growth despite regulatory changes.

    5. Kirloskar Pneumatic Co: 

    Prabhudas Lilladher retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this compressor & pump manufacturer, with a higher target price of Rs 1,715, a 12.1% upside. Kirloskar Pneumatic reported strong results in Q4FY26. Revenue jumped 20.2% YoY, and net profit climbed 79%. A favourable product mix, backward integration, and higher-margin contracts fueled this performance.

    Analysts Amit Anwani and Prathmesh Salunke believe Kirloskar Pneumatic is well-positioned for long-term revenue and earnings growth, even with near-term challenges. They remain confident in the stock, driven by the expanding air compression segment and new product platforms across compression and refrigeration. Management projects over 20% growth in revenue and net profit for FY27, boosted by the short-cycle equipment and product businesses, with about 10-15% growth from new products.

    Anwani and Salunke highlight additional growth drivers: the new Tyche and Khione refrigeration compressor series to increase penetration in commercial and industrial refrigeration, and in-house intellectual property and integrated manufacturing capabilities. They expect the firm to achieve a revenue CAGR of 17% and a net profit CAGR of 13.7% through FY28.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    30 Apr 2026
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 30, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 30, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Varun Beverages (VBL):

    The stock of this food & beverages company rose 3.8% over the past week, fueled by rising temperatures and a refreshing Q1CY26 performance. VBL’s Q1 net profit jumped 20.1% YoY to Rs 872.4 crore, led by lower inventory and deferred tax expenses. Revenue climbed 18.5% to Rs 6,765.1 crore, helped by higher net realisation and sales. The stock features in a screener of companies that have outperformed their industry over the past month.

    VBL is going big in Africa. It recently finalized its 100% acquisition of South African beverage firm Twizza and signed a deal to buy Crickley Dairy for approximately Rs 1,315 million. This move marks a major pivot from its core PepsiCo franchise, diversifying the portfolio into the high-growth dairy and juice-based drink segments.

    Its quarterly net profit and revenue surpassed Trenlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 15% and 11%, respectively. The strong growth was driven by robust execution and demand. The company’s India volumes grew by 14.4%, and international volumes by 21.4%. The integration of Twizza is expected to further supercharge this long-term international expansion.

    While VBL has almost no direct business in the Middle East conflict zones, it isn't totally immune. Since 80% of its volume comes from India, the main risk is secondary, specifically the cost of petroleum-based PET bottles and global logistics. Chairman Ravi Jaipuria emphasized that a "safety net" of strategic inventory management is in place to handle supply chain turbulence.

    Management plans to invest between Rs 500-600 crore in CY26 to keep its growth engines humming. Ravi Jaipuria credited the company's momentum to a healthy demand and disciplined execution across all its territories. However, he noted that VBL’s India realisations dipped 1.5% and termed it a strategic choice to attract new customers through larger packs and targeted price-point launches. Jaipuria described these moves as a “conscious near-term trade-off” aimed at “expanding the consumer funnel”.

    Motilal Oswal retained a ‘Buy’ rating on VBL and raised the target price to Rs 600. The brokerage expects a sizzling June quarter, thanks to the El Niño heatwave and the consolidation of the Twizza and Crickley brands. With the company also aggressively scaling its snacking business, the brokerage sees a clear path for continued growth.

    2. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries:

    Thispharma giant’s stock surged 7% on April 27 after it announced an $11.8 billiondeal to buy New Jersey-basedOrganon. The deal marks its entry into women’s healthcare and biosimilars, while expanding its presence to over 140 countries.

    MD Kirti Ganorkar sees China as the biggest prize. Hesaid, “Sun Pharma currently has a negligible presence in China, which is the world’s second-largest pharmaceutical market at around $150 billion and is growing at 5–7% annually.” Organon provides an established $800 million Chinese operation with eight key brands, offering immediate access and lowering expansion risks.

    To pay for the deal, Sun Pharma will spend up to $2.5 billion of its own cash and borrow nearly $9.8 billion. This massive loan wipes out the company’s current debt-free status. Its net debt will beabout 2.3 times its earnings (EBITDA), which could curb its appetite for more big deals.

    A key concern is Organon's $8.5 billion in existing debt, which Sun Pharma will inherit. Executive Chairman Dilip Shanghvihighlights a clear gap: Sun Pharmaceutical Industries has delivered strong growth, while Organon has seen flat revenue over the past five years. The success of the deal now depends on reviving growth. With only about one-third of Organon’s portfolio expanding, Sun Pharma will need to maximise returns from its mature brands to support debt repayment.

    Trendlyne’sForecaster projects strong future growth, with revenue seen rising 12.1% and net profit 28% YoY by Q4FY26. Once the deal closes in 8-9 months, Sun Pharma's revenue will nearly double to $12.4 billion, placing it into the global top 25 pharma companies.

    Following the news, ICICI Directdowngraded the stock to ‘Hold’. The brokerage cites caution, noting that while Sun Pharma is skilled at acquisitions, this is its biggest bet yet. Analysts worry about execution risks and limited immediate growth drivers. On the plus side, Organon has stronger profit margins than Sun Pharma. 

    3. Coal India:

    Thiscoal mining company surged 8.4% over the past week after reporting itsQ4 results. Revenue grew 23.6% YoY, while net profit rose 13%, with both metrics comfortably beatingForecaster estimates. While coal volumes declined marginally in FY26, the medium-term outlook remains intact, with the company targeting a billion tonnes of coal production by FY29.

    Union Coal and Mines Minister G. Kishan Reddy said, “India's rapidly growing economy requires a balanced energy strategy, with nearly 400 billion tonnes of coal reserves, among the highest globally,” underscoring coal’s share of over 70% in the current electricity mix. With a dominant ~74% share in domestic coal production, the company remains well positioned to benefit from this. Rising power demand, lower coal exports from Indonesia, and higher global gas prices are providing additional tailwinds.

    To capitalise on this demand, the company has sanctioned 117 mining projects with a combined capacity of 979 million tonnes, backed by a capex outlay of around Rs 1.4 lakh crore.

    EBITDAmargins for the quarter stood at 27.3%, with per tonne realisation increasing 7.4% to Rs 636. The e-auction segment continues to be the most profitable, with a 11% contribution to volumes. Analysts expect the e-auction share to rise to around 15% by FY28, supporting profitability. While premiums over fixed supply agreement (FSA) prices moderated, improving global coal prices and supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions could support higher realisations.

    The company is alsodiversifying beyond coal to strengthen long-term growth. It is investing in coal gasification projects with BHEL and GAIL, while expanding into thermal and renewable power. It is also exploring critical mineral assets, including rare earth elements.

    ICICI Directreiterates its ‘Buy’ rating with a higher target price of Rs 550. The brokerage expects growth driven by volume expansion, strong cash flows, and diversification into new energy segments. It also highlights the company’s net cash-positive balance sheet, supporting a dividend yield of around 6%.

    4. Zensar Technologies:

    Thissoftware company fell 11.4% in the past week after MD & CEO Manish Tandon guided for flat EBIT (operating) margins inQ1FY27. “Zensar’s technology, media & telecommunications (TMT) business will remain under pressure for the next few quarters,” Tandon said.

    InQ4FY26, the company’s revenue grew by 6.7% YoY to Rs 1,450 crore, led by its banking & financial services segment and supported by AI-led work. But this was offset somewhat by a decline in the TMT segment, which contributed to over 18% of its total revenue during the quarter, as global tech clients cut spending and shifted more work in-house.

    Net profit rose 19.4% to Rs 210 crore. However, operating performance was weak. EBIT margin declined 137 bps sequentially to 14.7%, as the company incurred upfront costs for a $210 million deal and saw lower employee utilisation during the quarter. This deal, the largest in the company’s history, is now central to its near-term growth. Tandon pointed to general delays in deal closures, noting that the deal was expected earlier but closed only in February, limiting its contribution in Q4FY26. 

    CFO Pulkit Bhandari also noted that the deal will begin contributing from Q1FY27, but “full ramp-up is expected only by Q3.” That leaves growth in the next couple of quarters dependent on execution, even as core demand remains uneven. 

    Competition is also intensifying. Tandon noted that larger IT firms are now bidding for smaller deals, increasing pricing pressure across the sector. AI is helping Zensar win deals, but much of this work is replacing existing services rather than adding new revenue streams.

    Axis Directmaintained its ‘Hold’ call on the stock, with a lower target price of Rs 580. The brokerage expects growth to remain moderate and has cut revenue estimates for FY27 and FY28, factoring in slower deal conversion and execution timelines. 

    5. IDFC First Bank: 

    This private bank stock climbed 4.5% on April 27 after reporting healthy Q4FY26 results. Revenue grew 12.1% YoY, supported by strong performance in both retail and wholesale banking segments. Net profit rose 4.9%, aided by lower provisions, a Rs 129.6 crore tax refund, and improving asset quality. While profit beat Forecaster estimates, revenue came in slightly below expectations due to a slowdown in treasury operations.

    Loan growth remained strong, driving net interest income (NII) higher. Growth was led by segments such as vehicle, gold, small business, and wholesale lending. However, deposit growth lagged due to lower savings rates, tight system liquidity, seasonal withdrawals, and the impact of a one-time fraud-related loss at a Haryana branch.

    The bank reported a net interest margin (NIM) of 5.9%, in line with guidance, supported by a lower cost of funds and a higher share of retail loans. Looking ahead, management expects NIM to moderate slightly to around 5.8% as the bank increases its exposure to wholesale and business banking segments, which typically carry lower yields. Ongoing branch expansion may also weigh on margins in the near term.

    CFO Sudhanshu Jain outlined the growth outlook, stating, “We expect our core income (NII and fees) to grow around 18% in FY27, driven by normalisation in stressed segments and continued traction in retail and small & medium enterprise lending.” Despite some margin pressure, management remains focused on sustaining overall profitability and maintaining prudent risk-adjusted returns.

    Following the results, ICICI Direct retained its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 80, a 14.9% upside. The brokerage expects improved operating leverage and lower credit costs to support earnings, with NII and net profit projected to grow around 19% and 80% annually over FY27–28.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    29 Apr 2026

    Confidence check: Which company promoters are buying, and which are selling stakes?

    By Anagh Keremutt

    Indian equities have been on a bumpy ride lately, reacting to Q4FY26 results and tensions in West Asia.

    IT stocks are tumbling as they remain exposed to a weak geopolitical environment and lag on the AI front. Sentiment also dampened after Infosys flagged a weak growth outlook. Sunny Agrawal, head of fundamental research at SBI Securities, said, “A major concern is the deflationary pressure from AI, which is impacting the growth prospects of major Tier 1 companies.”

    Earnings growth is expected to be narrow. BFSI, FMCG, and Consumer Discretionary, particularly autos, are likely to see relatively stronger performance, according to Axis Direct.

    Overall growth sentiment is also less bullish. In its April MPC meeting, the Reserve Bank of India trimmed its GDP estimates slightly for the first two quarters of FY27. 

    FIIs have been quick to act, selling about Rs 1.8 lakh crore in Indian equities so far this year. But promoters, who have real skin in the game, have moved differently. 

    Over the past quarter, some promoters booked profits after a strong rally, or trimmed holdings in sectors that were slowing down. Companies also issued new shares to raise fresh capital and bring large institutional backers on board. We even saw a few promoters buy more shares to double down on expected growth.

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we track insider moves across Nifty500 stocks to figure out promoter moves and what it signals for your portfolio.

    Stake cuts reflect profit booking and demand concerns

    Promoters trimmed stakes in several companies in Q4FY26.

    Vishal Mega Mart’s promoter, Samayat Services LLP, has been offloading its stake since the company’s IPO in late 2024. Over the past quarter, it sold a 14% stake in a block deal, bringing the overall promoter holding down to a little over 40%. The stock is up 21% since its IPO.

    Despite the company’s strong operating performance over the past few quarters, Samayat executed the block dealat a discount of about 10% to the market price. 

    Netweb Technologies saw its promoters from the Lodha family sell around 4% of their stake, taking the promoter holding slightly below 67%. The promoters trimmed their stake to raise funds for “personal reasons” after the company reported strong earnings with rising revenue from AI systems in Q3FY26.

    The housing finance industry appears twice in companies where promoters sold shares. Aadhar Housing’s promoters trimmed their holdings by 10.3% to about 65%, while Home First Finance’s promoters reduced theirs by 5.4% to almost 7%. In both cases, early private investors reduced their exposure, allowing these offloaded stakes to be picked up by other institutions.

    This comes alongside a shift in the housing market. A report by real estate consultant Knight Frank noted that demand is moving towards higher-priced homes even as sales in the sub-Rs 1 crore segment continue to decline. 

    Shishir Baijal, Managing Director of Knight Frank India, said, "The slowdown in affordable launches reflects developers’ reluctance to commit capital, as they pivot toward premium housing."

    Both Aadhar Housing and Home First are focused on affordable housing borrowers, with relatively small loan sizes. So when demand shifts toward higher-priced homes and activity slows at the lower end of the market, it directly affects their core segment.

    The Government of India reduced its stake in BHEL by 5% to around 58% through an offer for sale earlier this year. The move came as the stock rallied on strong order inflows in thermal power and railways, helping the government advance its divestment targets.

    Fundraising, institutional buying dilute promoter stakes

    A few companies also saw promoter ownership come down from issuing new equity, diluting promoter holdings.

    Biocon raised Rs 4,150 crore through a QIP to reduce its debt and fund the buyout of Viatris’ stake in Biocon Biologics. It also completed the integration through a share swap. With more shares issued, the promoter stake reduced by 9.5%, taking it to around 45%.

    Poonawalla Fincorp also issued a QIP, raising Rs 2,500 crore to expand its lending business. This added to the total number of shares, diluting the promoter stake by nearly 5% to about 59%.

    Manappuram Finance is bringing in US-based private equity giant Bain Capital as a partner. Bain will buy freshly issued shares at a 30% premium to the stock’s six-month average and also make an offer to acquire shares from existing investors. The deal has led to dilution in the existing promoters’ holdings by about 3.5%, taking holdings to a little over 31%.

    Shriram Finance brought in Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group as a strategic partner through a large issuance of new shares. As these additional shares were created and allotted to MUFG, the total share base expanded, which diluted the promoters’ holding by about 5.1% to roughly 20.3%.

    Promoters buy up shares in companies with improving outlook

    A few promoters increased their stakes this quarter. These additions were largely linked to business momentum, ownership changes, or planned actions like warrant conversions and acquisitions.

    Anamudi Real Estates LLP, a promoter entity at Godrej Properties, has invested in the company, taking promoter holding past the majority mark to about 51.7%. The buying comes alongside a ramp-up in launches and bookings, suggesting promoters are leaning in just as the business enters a high-growth phase.

    Jio Financial Services saw its promoter ownership rise 2% to just under 50%, following the conversion of warrants into equity shares and their allotment to promoter group entities, including Sikka Ports & Terminals and Jamnagar Utilities & Power. 

    Promoters have been increasing their stake in Adani Energy Solutions over the past year, with promoter holdings rising 1.5% in the past quarter to around 72.7%. This build-up comes as the company expands deeper into transmission and smart metering, where long execution cycles and high capital requirements typically warrant stronger promoter backing.

    The change at JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals reflects a shift in control. With Torrent Pharmaceuticals completing its acquisition, promoter holding increased 1.3% over the past quarter to about 48.8%, marking the transition to a pharma-led ownership with a sharper focus on integration and long-term growth.

    Other notable increases in promoter holdings were seen in Jindal Stainless, eClerx Services, Adani Enterprises, Vardhman Textiles, and NCC.

    Promoters are putting more money into businesses where growth looks clearer, while trimming stakes in companies where the outlook is uncertain. In a few cases, they’re also bringing in large institutions to fund expansion and improve how the business is run.

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    The Baseline
    28 Apr 2026
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 28, 2026

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 28, 2026

    By Abdullah Shah

    1. ICICI Bank: 

    Deven Choksey upgrades this bank to a ‘Buy’ call, with a target price of Rs 1,691 per share, an upside of 30.9%. This upgrade followed a strong Q4FY26. Provisions hit a 12-quarter low due to corporate loan write-backs. Analyst Maahir Mani noted ICICI Bank managed falling interest rates better than anticipated: loan income dipped only 1% after three rate cuts, and overall lending margins stayed stable.

    Management is focused on profitable growth while managing risk. The credit cost is at 0.4% now, with an expected rise to 0.5% by FY27. The bank is lending more to businesses and rural areas, where returns are higher, growing these segments by 24–26%. In contrast, retail loan growth is slower at 9.5%. Mani believes this shift ensures stable earnings and sustained profitability.

    Mani expects the bank's core lending income to grow 16.6% by FY27. Declining deposit costs will support this. Consequently, lending margins should hold steady at about 4.2–4.3%. The analyst remains positive on the bank's clear earnings outlook, strong asset quality, and robust balance sheet, though unsecured lending poses a key risk.

    2. Jubilant Ingrevia: 

    Axis Direct initiates coverage on this chemical company with a ‘Buy’ rating, with a target price of Rs 800 per share, an upside of 11.1%. Analyst Shivani More sees the company at a key turning point. It's shifting from low-profit basic chemicals to high-value specialty products, as well as contract development and manufacturing (CDMO) services.

    The company is investing heavily in this transformation, spending Rs 2,000 crore on new plants and expanding production, including for Vitamin B3. Management projects this strategy will fuel significant growth, aiming to triple revenue and quadruple net profit by FY30.

    The CDMO business is expected to become a major growth engine, backed by strong, long-term contracts, including a $300 million agrochemical deal. Demand for its nutrition-related products, like niacinamide and choline, should also climb from FY27 as the company boosts its production capacity.

    More forecasts revenue to grow 13% and net profit 22% annually through FY28. Margins should improve as the company sells more high-value items. Strong execution and clear order visibility stand out as key strengths.

    3. PNB Housing Finance: 

    ICICI Securities upgrades this housing finance provider to a ‘Buy’ rating from ‘Hold’, with a higher target price of Rs 1,350, a 29.4% upside. The company posted strong Q4FY26 results, where net profit surged 19.2% YoY, driven by improved asset quality. Revenue rose 6.6%, thanks to asset under management (AUM) growth with higher demand in non-premium and semi-urban areas.

    Analysts Renish Bhuva and Chintan Shah turned positive on the stock, noting sustained improvements across most business metrics, including higher loan disbursements without compromising on asset quality. Management expects its loan book to exceed Rs 1 lakh crore in FY27, with a net interest margin around 3.6%. They also project retail AUM growth of 18-20%, led by the affordable housing segment.

    Bhuva and Shah highlight that PNB Housing Finance improved asset quality through a strategic shift. It now targets higher-quality customers (88% of Q4FY26 loans went to those with a credit score above 700) and dedicates a team to resolve bad loans. Analysts expect the company to deliver net interest income and net profit CAGRs of 21.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over FY27-28.

    4. Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC: 

    Motilal Oswal retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this asset management company, with a target price of Rs 1,230, an upside of 15.4%. The company reported mixed Q4FY26 results. Revenue rose 6.9% YoY, driven by assets under management (AUM) growth across segments. However, net profit fell 20% due to increased employee benefits, fees, and commission costs.

    Analysts Prayesh Jain and Nitin Aggarwal see growth coming from the company's focus on launching a Specialised Investment Fund (SIF) platform and expanding non-mutual fund segments. Management noted improved Q4FY26 inflows, boosted by better product acceptance and more approvals from banking channels. Products like arbitrage, flexi-cap, multi-asset, multi-cap, balanced advantage, and thematic funds drove these inflows.

    Jain and Aggarwal highlight the mutual fund business' sharp growth. Fund performance across equity and fixed income improved, and Aditya Birla saw rising traction in systematic investment plan (SIP), and an expanding distribution network. However, management warned that April's regulatory changes related to expense ratios would impact equity yields. They plan to offset this by adjusting commission structures and optimising costs. Analysts expect the firm to achieve a 10.7% net profit CAGR through FY28.

    5. DCB Bank: 

    BOB Capital Markets maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this small-cap bank, with a higher target price of Rs 224, an upside of 18.1%. DCB Bank reported healthy Q4FY26 growth: revenue jumped 8.1% YoY, and net profit rose 16.1%. Analysts Niraj Jalan and Kaustubh Shetye remain positive on the stock, noting that the strong performance was driven by deposit and loan growth and better asset quality.

    Management aims to double the balance sheet every 3-4 years. To achieve this, the bank plans to expand its distribution to over 500 branches (from 480 in FY26) and invest Rs 1,100–1,200 crore by Q3FY27. They project the bank’s net interest margin will be 3.5–3.7%, expecting gains from deposit repricing to reflect by Q3FY27.

    Jalan and Shetye emphasise that consistent loan growth in recent quarters suggests future double-digit balance sheet expansion. They add that the bank's growth strategy will pivot towards core secured segments like mortgages, small & medium enterprises, and agriculture. Analysts expect the bank to deliver credit and deposit CAGRs of 19-20% over FY27-29.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    24 Apr 2026
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 24, 2026

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 24, 2026

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Adani Power:

    The stock of this power & electric utilities company surged 10.2% over the past week, driven by a strong demand outlook for domestic energy. On April 21, its subsidiary, Adani Atomic Energy, launched a new arm, Rawatbhata-Raj Atomic Energy (RRAEL) to handle nuclear power generation and distribution. This strategic move is rather perfectly timed, coinciding with the Indian government's recent push to open the heavily guarded nuclear sector to private players.

    The 2025 SHANTI (Sustainable Harnessing and Advancement of Nuclear Energy for Transforming India) bill is a major policy shift designed to end state control of nuclear energy and attract roughly $26 billion in private funding. By prioritizing the development of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), the government aims to scale India's nuclear capacity to 100 GW by 2047. Adani’s new nuclear venture positions the company at the forefront of this massive national energy expansion.

    While the US-Iran conflict has rattled energy markets, Adani Power relies on thermal energy rather than imported gas for power generation. As India’s top private thermal producer, it manages a massive 18,110 MW capacity alongside a 40 MW solar setup. Since it doesn't rely on expensive Gulf LNG as its main input, the company is shielded from international price shocks and continues to outperform its industry peers. The stock appears on a screener of companies that have shown relative outperformance versus the industry over the past month.

    Bernstein analyst Nikhil Nigania identified three major tailwinds for the sector including energy security, weaker monsoons, and the data center boom. He notes that AI and India’s digital expansion are fueling an "explosive" need for electricity. Since data centers never sleep, their massive power appetite is directly boosting revenues for the country's top energy producers.

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects Adani Power’s Q4 revenue to grow by 13.3% YoY on the back of higher power demand due to a weaker monsoon and a hotter summer outlook. While the summer started mildly, JM Financial notes that rising temperatures and intense pre-monsoon heat from mid-May will drive up energy needs. This extreme weather is expected to cause a shortfall in hydro generation, paving the way for a massive surge in coal-fired output that will directly benefit the company's bottom line.

    Initiating coverage with an ‘Outperform’ rating, Bernstein pointed out India's unique energy landscape: resource-poor in oil and gas, but rich in coal and solar. Because widespread electrification is the long-term solution, the brokerage argues that the best investments aren't just in pure renewables. Instead, companies dominating thermal, nuclear, storage, and grid segments-like Adani Power-hold the most promise.

    2. Indian Energy Exchange (IEX):

    Thisenergy exchange fell 8% on April 20 as the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC)proposed a new system that changes how electricity prices are decided.

    IEX has been the dominant platform where electricity trades are executed, with prices being determined by the buy and sell orders placed on it. It made IEX a core part of the market’s pricing process.

    Now, all exchanges will send their buy and sell orders to Grid India, the government-backed operator that manages the country’s power grid. It will pool these orders to decide a single price for the market. IEX will still facilitate trades, but the price will no longer be decided on its platform.

    Balaji Rao Mudili, research analyst at Bonanza, flagged the competitive impact. “IEX’s dominance came from being the place where prices were set,” he said. “With pricing now centralised, rival exchanges can attract trades without needing to build the same scale first, spreading volumes across platforms.”

    Nearly 78% of IEX’s revenue comes from transaction fees, so it depends heavily on trading volumes on its platform.

    Mirae Asset Mutual Fundsold about a 0.2% stake in the company on April 20, possibly reacting to this news. The size of the sale may be small, but the timing reflects the cautious mood around the impact of the new policy. 

    The CERC move comes at a time the business itself is seeing strong activity. IEX traded 141 billion units of electricity inFY26, up 17% YoY. A large share of this came from the real-time market, where power is bought to manage short-term demand, with volumes rising over 40%. Volumes in Q4FY26 also grew 24%.

    Motilal Oswalmaintained its ‘Neutral’ stance with a target price of Rs 137. The brokerage sees growth continuing, but the loss of pricing control changes how the business is valued. New opportunities like a coal exchange exist, but they are still some time away from contributing in a meaningful way.

    3. Nestle India:

    Thispackaged food manufacturer surged 13% over the past week after reporting strongQ4 results. Revenue grew 22% YoY, and net profit jumped 27%, beating Forecaster estimates by a wide margin. Chairman & MD Manish Tiwarysaid, “This performance was powered by double-digit volume growth, supported by higher advertising spends," while delivering a 153 basis points improvement in EBITDA margin. The company features in a screener of stocks with the best results last week.

    Analysts note that 85% of the company’s portfolio benefited from GST-led pricing changes, which spurred demand. Continued investments in brands, distribution, and capacity have helped sustain growth momentum. Easing input costs, particularly softer coffee and cocoa prices due to improved global supply, also provide additional tailwinds.

    Domestic revenue grew 23%, driven by distribution gains and rural expansion. General trade channels remain the primary growth driver, especially in rural markets, helped by a distribution reach across nearly 2.2 lakh villages. Despite this, Tiwary highlights the long runway ahead, noting, “In my earlier role inHUL, rural contributed a 48% revenue share,” compared with Nestle’s 18%.

    New-age channels are contributing meaningfully. Quick commerce has emerged as a key growth driver, enabling rapid launches of products such as Nestea green tea variants. Increasing adoption of beverage machines by businesses have boosted out-of-home consumption at double-digit rates, while digital channels scale steadily.

    ICICI Securitiesreiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, raising the target price to Rs 1,650. The brokerage expects a volume-led recovery driven by underlying demand and better distribution. It remains optimistic about Nestle’s growth trajectory, with GST-led affordability driving sales and momentum in discretionary categories such as chocolates.

    4. Radico Khaitan:

    Thisalcohol company jumped 5% over the past week. The surgefollowed an April 18 draft notification from Karnataka of its new liquor tax policy, along with Motilal Oswalreiterating its ‘Buy’ rating with 20.8% upside.

    Karnataka's proposed policy, first announced on March 6, is a game-changer for premium spirit makers like Radico Khaitan, as it is thelargest liquor-consuming state in India. The state will now tax drinks based on their alcohol content, not price. It is also cutting tax slabs from 16 to 8 and letting companies set their own prices. This levels the playing field, as premium brands will no longer face higher taxes just for being expensive. Under the new policy, drinks with the same alcohol content will be taxed equally.

    This shift especially helps the company’s premium vodka, which drives over half of its premium sales. MD Abhishek Khaitan sees a huge opportunity andsaid, “While vodka accounts for over 20–25% of the global spirits market, in India it remains less than 4%, presenting significant headroom for growth.” Radico Khaitan leads this market with its Magic Moments brand, commanding a 60% market share in the vodka segment.

    The stock’s rise was also fueled by Motilal Oswal setting a target price of Rs 3,850. The brokerage maintained its 'Buy' rating, confident in Radico Khaitan's dominance in white spirits. The company holds an impressive 80% share of thepremium Indian-made vodka market.

    On the cost side, Radico Khaitan is well-protected. Itsources key ingredients like alcohol locally, and glass prices aren't tied to oil. Still, a sharp rise in crude oil from global tensions could increase its packaging and shipping expenses.

    Motilal predicts steady growth, forecasting a 13% annual revenue increase through FY28, led by its high-end brands. TrendlyneForecaster estimates also suggest revenue will grow 15.6% YoY in Q4FY26. However, it is expected to decline QoQ-wise by 2.5%, as Q3 typically benefits from festive demand, making Q4 relatively softer in comparison. 

    5. HCL Technologies:

    This IT stock plunged over the past week, hitting a new 52-week low after reporting mixed Q4 results. MD and CEO C Vijayakumar guided modest growth for FY27, saying, “We expect revenue to grow 1–4% with EBIT margins of about 18%,” up from 16.5% currently. He cautioned that while AI demand remains strong, pricing pressure and a shift towards cost-saving deals could limit overall growth.

    Revenue remained flat QoQ at Rs 34,303 crore as clients cut discretionary IT spending and deal wins slowed. Net profit rose 10.1%, thanks to lower costs and a weak base in Q3FY26 due to labour code changes. However, both revenue and profit missed Forecaster estimates.

    Performance remained uneven across segments. Weakness in telecom and media offset growth in the other segments, as two large US telecom clients reduced non-essential IT spending. Some manufacturing and retail clients also scaled back their software programs. EBITDA margins fell 283 basis points due to seasonal softness in the software business and delayed pricing decisions.

    Amid this slowdown, AI continues to emerge as a key growth driver. The segment reached an annualised revenue of $620 million, raising its contribution to about 4% of total revenue from just 1% in the previous quarter. Growth was driven by large deals and strong demand for AI Force, a platform to automate IT and data workflows.

    The company secured two major AI deals during the quarter, including an AI factory program worth over $100 million and an engineering services contract focused on advanced chip development. Management expects advanced AI services to grow 25–30% annually over the medium term, helping offset weakness in traditional segments, even as pricing pressure persists.

    Following the results, Deven Choksey upgraded the stock to a ‘Buy’ rating from ‘Hold’ with a target price of Rs 1,611, implying a 33.9% upside. The brokerage expects steady execution in AI-led deals and margin discipline to support medium-term growth, with revenue and profit projected to grow around 8% annually through FY28.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    24 Apr 2026
    As Trump slips on banana peels, what are domestic institutional investors betting on?

    As Trump slips on banana peels, what are domestic institutional investors betting on?

    The market is in the middle of a tug of war. While foreign investors have turned bearish, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) are loading up their portfolios. In April alone, foreign investors took out over Rs, 42,000 crore from the Indian stock market, while domestic investors poured in nearly Rs. 35,000 crore.

    US President Donald Trump's loose lips are driving uncertainty globally. The ceasefire with Iran is on again, off again - this week Trump threatened to bomb Iran hours before he announced a ceasefire extension. When the US and Iran were close to a deal in Pakistan, Trump scuttled it by talking to the press about things Iran had agreed to, which they had not.

    If there is a banana peel on the street, Trump is available to step on it. 

    Unfortunately for us, the global economy right now is full of banana peels, with oil rising, the Hormuz Strait still closed, and inflation up. Institutional investors are consolidating, moving to cash, or getting into defensive sectors.

    In the Indian market, the rupee's depreciation is also a factor, causing foreign investors to look elsewhere for returns. They have steadily pulled out funds while DIIs put money in. 

    But DIIs are not doing a "spray and pray" in their bets; they are investing quite selectively. As the Q4 results come in, domestic institutions are shifting their preferences towards specific sectors, and rotating their money away from others. 

    Let's take a look at the new favourites.

    DIIs shift away from tech amid AI anxiety

    The Nifty indices suggest a mood shift in the markets. As conflicts have risen, defence stocks have done remarkably well. In addition, FMCG and bank indices have seen momentum, while tech and pharma stocks have struggled. 

    The ongoing Q4 results have seen tech companies take negative hits this week. Nifty IT fell nearly 4% just today, after muted guidance from the Big 4 for FY27, and weaker than expected earnings.

    Overall global tech demand is looking flat and companies are tightening spending. As Srini Palla, the CEO of Wipro puts it, "Disruptions have become the new normal".

    While there's a lot of talk around AI investments and tools, there's little clarity in outcomes. Indian tech players have multiple AI offerings, but clients are still unclear on the returns. Until there is real evidence for AI driven gains, customers are holding back on allocating funds to new projects. 

    A migration to defensives

    As tech bleeds and inflation ticks up, domestic investors are migrating to the defensive sectors that consumers have to buy in both boom and bust periods.

    FMCG has emerged as a favourite defensive theme as the results season progresses. Even as HCL Tech fell over 10% this week, Nestle India rose nearly 14% while HUL rose over 11%. HUL rose on higher delivery, indicating that institutions are taking a significant number of shares home. 

    This pattern in institutional preferences was already emerging ahead of the Q4 results. Tech stocks were under-represented in DII bets over the past three months. Instead, the biggest bets from India's institutional investors have been in banking stocks (where valuations had taken a hit, giving investors cheaper entry points), as well as life insurance, healthcare and auto.

    Bank management like ICICI Bank's CFO Anindya Banerjee see India's upbeat growth outlook as driving credit growth and loan books by double digit percentages in FY27. This has been key to institutional bullishness. Consumer plays like Eternal (Zomato) have also drawn institutional buys, thanks to resilient demand in spaces like food and grocery delivery. 

    Retail investors may be looking at the share price declines in bellwether IT stocks and getting tempted, but DIIs are not hanging around to catch falling knives.

    FY27 could be the year where clients get more clarity on AI spending and the kind of large scale IT projects that will deliver value. Until then however, IT spending is unlikely to see a major breakout.

    Conflicts around the world could also intensify, as Trump looks for more banana peels to step on  - he has already spoken about invading Cuba and Nigeria. In such volatile political environments, investors need to be a lot more cautious about blanket investments. The bets DIIs make in the coming weeks will provide useful clues. 

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    The Baseline
    23 Apr 2026

    India’s trade deficit jumped in FY26 with high gold prices and rising imports

    By Anagh Keremutt

    India’s trade deficit widened sharply in FY26.

    India’s total imports grew faster than exports over the financial year, pushing the trade deficit up by 26% to $119.3 billion. But unlike previous years, oil wasn’t the main driver. Petroleum imports actually fell 6.4%. Instead, the pressure came from rising gold prices and a surge in electronics imports.

    Gold saw a sharp jump in prices throughout the year, as conflicts and trade tariffs drew investors into what many see as a safe haven investment. So even though gold volumes declined, the overall import bill rose. 

    Silver imports saw both prices and volumes moving up. Electronics imports also climbed, driven by strong domestic buying and the needs of a growing manufacturing base.

    Growth was more muted on the export side. Total exports rose 4.2% to a record $860 billion. Services continued to be the anchor, expanding 7.9% and generating a surplus of over $213 billion.

    While merchandise (goods) exports were flat, engineering exports stood out. Pankaj Chadha of EEPC India said, “Engineering goods exports hit an all-time high of $122.4 billion despite external disruptions.”

    That’s what sets FY26 apart: the deficit is widening, but not because of a weakening economy. Strong domestic demand, resilient services exports, and pockets of manufacturing strength are all visible in the underlying numbers.

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at how precious metals are driving the deficit, and how India’s trade structure is changing. 

    Precious metals drive a widening trade deficit

    A large part of the widening deficit traces back to precious metals. Average gold import prices surged 30.3% in FY26, lifting the import bill.

    Throughout the year, central banks increased gold buying amid geopolitical uncertainties and the US-Iran war. Expectations of interest rate cuts made gold more attractive relative to other fixed-income assets. 

    Silver moved even faster, pushing total import values up more than 2.5x. Supply shortages, festive demand, and rising industrial use in electronics and solar all played a role.

    Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, pointed to the price shock in precious metals while explaining the current account outlook, highlighting the “gold price spike” as a key reason behind the widening gap.

    Rising exports, powered by more imports

    Part of the rise in merchandise imports also reflects stronger economic activity. India’s exports of engineering goods and electronics have picked up. But these exports depend on imported inputs. Chips, components, metals, and intermediates all come from global supply chains. As output rises, imports rise along with it.

    Electronics imports grew by 17.8%, while machinery imports rose by over 14%, reflecting demand for components and capital equipment. These imports are harder to cut back on. Electronics tracks consumption demand, while machinery points to ongoing investment. Pulling back here does not just reduce imports; it also hampers domestic economic activity.

    Exports are picking up in similar segments. Non-petroleum exports rose 3.6%. Engineering goods grew nearly 5%, while electronics surged 25%, taking shipments close to $48 billion. 

    Other sectors were far more muted. Pharmagrew just 2.1%, chemicals were flat, and petroleum product exports fell 15% on lower global crude prices through most of FY26. This kept overall export growth modest despite strength in electronics. 

    Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal noted that export growth is coming from a “diversified basket, strengthening India’s position in global value chains.” Assembling a product requires parts sourced across countries. The final export leaves from India, but many of the pieces arrive first from elsewhere.

    The surplus in trade excluding petroleum and gems & jewellery stood at around $75 billion, supported by electronics export, though it narrowed slightly in FY26.

    India: The middleman in global trade

    India is exporting to more countries now. Exports to China surged 36.7% in FY26, while Spain and Hong Kong saw growth of 46% and 33%, respectively. Exports to Vietnam and Sri Lanka also grew by around 20%.

    Even as exports diversify, a few markets still dominate. The US, UAE, and China alone account for about a third of India’s exports. This concentration makes trade vulnerable to regional disruptions. The war involving the US, Israel and Iran did exactly that, pulling down India’s trade with West Asia. In March alone, exports and imports to the region fell by over 50%. Crude oil imports dropped nearly 36%, while gold imports fell 31.6%.

    China remains the largest source of India’s imports, accounting for roughly 17%. The UAE follows in second place, while other key suppliers include Russia and the US. Beyond that, imports are spread across a wide set of countries. 

    Imports from China rose about 16% in FY26, crossing $131 billion, with much of it feeding into electronics and engineering supply chains.

    This creates a loop where inputs come in from China, production happens in India, and finished goods move out to other markets. As exports grow, imports tied to those supply chains grow too.

    The US remains India’s largest export market, but the balance is changing. Export growth was marginal here, while imports from the US rose about 16%, leading to a roughly 19% decline in the trade surplus.

    Higher tariffs earlier in the year added pressure for exporters. Some absorbed the cost, while others passed it on through higher prices, affecting their ability to compete. Towards the end of the financial year, tariffs were reduced to 18% under an interim pact. While that should help, the effects will take time to show.

    Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative, noted that “easing tariffs could support a recovery in exports as trade terms improve.”

    The trade data in FY26 shows how India imports inputs from one set of countries and exports finished goods to another. While this supports trade flows, it also puts pressure on the overall trade balance.

    If gold prices stabilise in the coming months and export momentum holds, the deficit can ease. But if import-intensive growth continues or global prices rise again, the pressure is likely to persist.

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    The Baseline
    23 Apr 2026
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 23, 2026

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 23, 2026

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. HDFC Bank: 

    ICICI Direct reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this private bank, with a target price of Rs 1,050, a 32.7% upside. The bank's stock dropped 21.5% in the last six months and reported mixed Q4FY26 results. Net profit grew 8% YoY, helped by lower interest costs and provisions. However, revenue fell 2.8% due to a slowdown in the corporate banking segment.

    Analysts Vishal Narnolia and Parth Chintkindi, however, see strong revenue growth ahead in FY27, and the stock has seen sustained MF buying in the past quarter. They credit the bank's healthy lending, improved funds portfolio, and strong financial position. Management sees steady growth ahead from stronger auto and home loan sales, backed by its powerful distribution network. Management also noted that deposit growth is improving, giving them a clearer path to normalising their loan-to-deposit ratio.

    Narnolia and Chintkindi highlight that margins will rise slowly. A better borrowing mix and repricing of deposits should lower the bank's cost of funds. They add that the bank’s strong financial cushion, controlled spending, and past tech investments will boost efficiency and maintain returns. Analysts expect net interest income and net profit to grow 13-14% CAGR over FY27–28.

    2. MTAR Technologies:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this defence company, with a target price of Rs 6,000, an upside of 11.5%. The Israel-Iran conflict poses a slight risk. High exports and ties to Israeli defence clients could delay shipments and raise logistics costs. However, a key client, Bloom Energy, provides a strong outlook. Bloom expanded its Oracle partnership to 2.8 GW from 1.2 GW. This expansion, fueled by AI data centre demand, could bring MTAR Rs 1,400–1,700 crore in new orders over the next few years.

    Management is focused on scaling up its fuel cell segment, where it supplies critical parts. As Bloom’s orders grow, MTAR expects to boost production to 9,700 units in FY27 and 14,000 in FY28. The clean energy business will likely drive growth, making up 71% of total revenue by FY28, up from 62% in FY25. This provides a clearer growth path but also increases reliance on a single business area.

    Analysts Meet Jain and Sumant Kumar raised their estimates, citing strong fuel cell demand and execution. They predict strong growth over FY27–28, with revenue, EBITDA, and net profit growing at a CAGR of 49%, 65%, and 90%, respectively. They believe margins should improve with increased scale and efficiency.

    3. Bajaj Consumer Care: 

    ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this personal products manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 600 per share, an upside of 27.1%. This positive outlook follows a strong Q4FY26. Revenue grew 30.4% YoY to Rs 330 crore, thanks to strong sales of its Almond Drops Hair Oil and a rebound in rural demand.

    Management says its 'Aarohan' distribution expansion is nearly complete. The initiative focuses on expanding direct reach across outlets, reducing dependence on wholesalers, and improving distribution efficiency to support better margins. The company will now focus on boosting productivity and growing existing product lines. 

    Markets under this program are already growing about 4% faster. The company aims for Rs 500 crore in revenue within three years. Gross margins surged to 63.7%, an 899 bps jump, helped by a better product mix and cost controls. Bajaj Consumer Care expects to maintain EBITDA margins in the low to mid-twenties, but will keep a close eye on raw material costs.

    Analysts Manoj Menon and Ashutosh Joytiraditya forecast steady growth over FY27–28. They see revenue, EBITDA, and net profit growing at a CAGR of 12%, 19%, and 18%. They view the company's execution, improving channel mix, and margin expansion positively. However, reliance on a single brand and fluctuating input costs remain key risks.

    4. HDFC Asset Management Co (HDFC AMC):

    BOB Capital Markets keeps its ‘Buy’ rating on this asset manager, with a target price of Rs 3,175, a 15.5% upside. HDFC AMC posted mixed results for Q4FY26. Revenue grew 3.7% YoY, fueled by higher assets under management (AUM) and steady systematic investment plan (SIP) inflows. However, net profit fell 2.5% due to market-related losses and higher expenses.

    Analysts Vijiya Rao and Niraj Jalan believe HDFC AMC is set for steady growth. They point to its strong brand, high equity exposure, and excellent profitability. Management aims to grow market share in both its mutual fund and non-mutual fund businesses to boost long-term revenue. They also see industry-wide growth ahead, as more investors join and SIPs continue to attract funds.

    Rao and Jalan note that a recent rule change on exit loads will have a small impact. Management plans to offset this by adjusting commissions and managing costs. They forecast the company will achieve 13.5% revenue growth and 14.5% net profit growth CAGR over FY27–29.

    5. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company:

    Anand Rathi reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this asset manager, with a target price of Rs 3,800 per share, an upside of 11.4%. A steady Q4FY26 performance supports this view. Revenue rose 19.5% YoY to Rs 1,517 crore, and EBITDA jumped 29.7%, pushing margins to 76.5%.

    Management highlights strong growth in assets under management (AUM). Its mutual fund average AUM grew 25.6%, helping it maintain its position as the second-largest asset manager with a 13.5% market share. Its strength in equity, hybrid, and active funds supported the AUM growth. Retail investor interest is strong, with monthly systematic investments up 30.6%. The company now has 1.7 crore customers. It is also launching new products like specialised investment funds and maintains a robust distribution network.

    Analyst Shivam Gupta expects steady growth from expanding AUM, strong retail investments, and new products. Margins should remain stable due to the business's efficiency. However, market volatility is a key risk that could affect near-term cash flows and earnings.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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