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The Baseline
04 May 2023
India emerges a winner in the global oil war | Stocks beating analyst estimates in Q4
By Shreesh Biradar

Over the past few decades, major geopolitical events led to sharp fluctuations in oil prices – the US invasion of Iraq (which triggered a 49% jump in oil prices from March 2003 to March 2004), the Afghanistan crisis (58% up from September 2001 to September 2002), and sanctions on Iran (43% up from September 2010 to September 2011).

Each of these events disrupted the crude oil supply chain. The usual pattern is this: Developed nations impose sanctions on an oil producer, and developing economies struggle with high oil prices, and rising fiscal deficits.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is the latest example, where many analysts expected $100 oil after the US and Europe stopped energy purchases from Russia.

But unlike the previous blanket bans, this time the G7 countries took a softer stand by capping the Russian oil price at USD 60 per barrel. The sanctions are meant to ensure a revenue cap for Russia, without hampering the oil supply chain.

Many countries are not complying with the price cap:

The impact this time is different – by continuing to buy Russian oil despite EU and US boycotts, India and China have become major refined oil exporters.

In this week’s Analyticks:

  • Oil politics: India is on the winning side of oil politics, for a change
  • Screener: Stocks that beat analyst estimates for revenue and net profit in Q4FY23

Let’s get into it.

India's deep thirst for cheap Russian oil

The price cap on Russian oil has caused its Ural crude to trade at 40% below the international benchmark, Brent crude. In the first quarter of 2023, Russian Ural oil averaged USD 51.05 per barrel, while Brent crude oil was priced around USD 81.91.

India's economy is highly susceptible to oil price fluctuations. A report by Edelweiss suggests that a 10 dollar increase in oil prices causes a current account deficit of 0.5% of India's GDP. If India were to replace its entire import crude basket with Russian Ural, its current account deficit could contract by 1.6%-1.7% of GDP.

The landing cost (including freight and insurance) of Russian Ural for India was roughly USD 70 in March. India and China are snapping up cheap Russian crude in large quantities - Russia currently accounts for nearly 40% of India’s crude imports, while China has increased its Russian oil imports by 22%. 

The Middle East’s oil producers have been at the receiving end of this, and saw their share of Indian oil imports drop sharply.

Sooner or later, Middle Eastern refiners may need to revise their official selling price to compete with Russia.

The increased demand for cheaper Russian Ural has pushed its prices past the $60/barrel cap imposed by the G7, and the price differential between Russian Ural and Brent had narrowed to 20% by the end of April 2023. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has saidthat India is going to keep buying Russian oil past the price cap, as long as it remains cheaper than Brent crude.

Can India increase Russian oil imports?

India increased its Russian imports from 67,500 barrels/day in January 2022 to 2.1 million barrels/day by the end of April 2023. Russia is now India’s single major source of oil supply. Whether India can increase its Russian oil imports further is a complex question. 


India has struggled to find an alternative currency to the US dollar for purchasing Russian crude oil. Russia's removal from the international SWIFT payment system has made dollar transactions difficult, and exposes India to potential sanctions. Trading in INR is impractical, as Russia is a net exporter to India; receiving rupee payments would leave Russia with an excess of rupees and no way to spend them.

For now, Russia and India are trading in UAE Dirhams, which helps to a certain extent as it is pegged to the dollar. But this does not completely solve the INR depreciation issue. UAE is a net exporter to India, so India buying more Dirhams for Russian trade will cause the INR to depreciate against the Dirham. 

India also cannot stockpile much Ural oil due to its limited strategic petroleum reserve of 5.33 MMT, which covers only about 9.5 days of national demand. In contrast, countries like China have significant reserves that can meet nearly 50 days of their national demand.

A potential solution for India is to rapidly refine and export more Russian oil. But Indian oil refineries are operating at full capacity, with overall capacity utilization exceeding 100% since May 2022. In January 2023, capacity utilization reached 106.9%, and state-run firms like Indian Oil Corporation reported even higher figures at 110%. India cannot increase oil exports without investing in additional capacity expansion projects.

Russian oil wears an Indian disguise, as India becomes the top fuel exporter to Europe

The European Union banned seaborne crude imports from Russia starting from February 2023. At the time, Russia accounted for nearly 30%of European crude imports.

While the US has increased its crude oil exports to Europe by morethan 70%, it is unable to meet all of Europe’s needs. So Moscow is rerouting Russian oil to Europe via refineries in India, China, Africa and the Middle East. India has become the hub for sending Russian Ural to Europe as refined oil. 

India’s oil refineries are processing and exporting Russian crude as a clean fuel. India supplied roughly 3,65,000 barrels per day to Europe in April 2023, an increase of 187% since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022. 

Data Source: Kpler and Bloomberg

However, India cannot completely substitute Russian oil exports to Europe, which averaged around 1.1 million barrels per day before the start of the conflict. India is limited here by its refining infrastructure.

The idea behind the sanctions was to cripple Russia's revenue source without completely cutting off the global oil supply. The plan has worked, but it's not been foolproof. Russia is still making money, just not as much. Oil supply to Europe has continued, but routed through India and China. For the first time, countries like India and China, which used to be victims of international oil politics, are gaining from this oil war.

Screener: Stocks that beat analyst estimates for revenue and net profit in Q4FY23

With the Q4FY23 result season in full swing, we take a look at the stocks that have beat analyst estimates for revenue and net profit on Trendlyne’s Forecaster. This screenerfeatures stocks with the highest positive surprises in estimates for revenue and profit in Q4FY23.

Stocks from the banking, NBFC, pharmaceuticals and IT consulting & software industries dominate the screener. Stocks that stand out are Machrotech Developers, ICICI Lombard General Insurance, Syngene International, IDFC First Bank, Supreme Industries and Welspun India.

Macrotech Developers recorded the highest positive surprise in Forecaster estimates, beating revenue estimates by 15.1% in Q4FY23. However, the realty company’s revenue fell 5.5% YoY in the quarter to Rs 3,255.4 crore. It also beat Forecaster estimates for net profit by 47.5% as it grew by 39% YoY to Rs 744.4 crore.

ICICI Lombard General Insurance surpassed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue by 14.3% as it posted a 12.3% YoY growth in premiums earned in Q4FY23. The rise in premium earned from the retail health, corporate health and motor insurance segments aided the growth in net premium earned. A net profit growth of 39.8% YoY to Rs 436.9 crore helped the general insurer beat the Forecaster estimates by 12.1%.

You can find some popular screenershere.

Signing off this week,

The Trendlyne Team

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
04 May 2023
Market closes higher, HDFC's Q4FY23 net profit rises 19.6% YoY to Rs 4,425.5 crore

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 18,255.80 (166.0, 0.9%), BSE Sensex closed at 61,749.25 (556.0, 0.9%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 15,405.50 (129.1, 0.9%). Of the 1,942 stocks traded today, 1,271 were in the positive territory and 621 were negative.

Indian indices closed in the green after opening flat on a volatile day of trade. The benchmark Nifty 50 index rose over 165 points and closed over the 18,250 mark. Data from the Federation of Automotive Dealers' Association showed retail sales for the automotive industry fell 4% YoY to 17.2 lakh units in April. Two-wheeler retail sales decreased by 7.3% YoY, while car sales fell 1.3% YoY.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green, following the benchmark index. Nifty Metal and Nifty PSU Bank closed higher than Wednesday’s levels. Nifty IT closed 0.5% higher, despite the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index closing in the red on Wednesday. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, commercial services & supplies was the top-performing sector of the day.

European indices traded in the red, despite major Asian indices closing in the green. European stocks traded lower as investors look ahead to the European Central Bank’s latest monetary policy decision, to be announced later today. US indices futures traded flat after closing in the red on Wednesday, as investors assessed the impact of a 25 bps rate hike by the US Fed on the economy.

  • Godrej Properties beats Macrotech Developers in YoY and QoQ net profit growth, PE ratio and FII holdings. But it lags in price-to-book ratio, broker average rating and Trendlyne valuation score.

  • IndiaMART InterMESH rises over 14% in the past week. The company features in a screener of stocks where brokers have upgraded recommendation or target price in the past three months. It also ranks high on Trendlyne’s Checklist.

  • Housing Development Finance Corp is rising as its net profit improves by 19.6% YoY to Rs 4,425.5 crore in Q4FY23. Revenue also increases by 35.6% YoY to Rs 16,679.4 crore on the back of growth in interest income. The company shows up in a screener of stocks with improving net profit over the past two quarters.

  • Dabur India’s Q4FY23 net profit rises 2.2% YoY to Rs 300.8 crore and revenue grows by 6.4% YoY. The company’s largest business segment, the consumer care business, remains flat YoY. Growth in Q4 is being led by the food business growing by 44.8% YoY. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with declining cash flows.

  • Medical equipment, fertilizers and educationindustries rise more than 20% in the past month.

  • KEC International is rising despite seeing a 35.6% YoY decline in Q4FY23 net profit due to a write-off of Rs 44 crore the company received in Q4FY22. Its revenue has grown by 29.2% YoY to Rs 5,525 crore. The stock is currently trading near its 52-week high of Rs 525.9 per share.

  • Jefferies maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on KEI Industries with a target price of Rs 2,305. The brokerage says the company’s revenues have been high but offset by low margins in Q4.

  • Equitas Small Finance Bank, Piramal Enterprises and Britannia Industries rise 6.5%, 5.1% and 3.8% respectively over the past week, ahead of their Q4FY23 results tomorrow.

  • ABB India and Cholamandalam Investment & Finance reach their all-time highs of Rs 3,662.7 and Rs 970 per share respectively. The former has risen 8.2% over the past month, while the latter grew 21.7%.

  • SJVN bags an order worth Rs 1,200 crore for setting up a 200 MW grid-connected solar power project in Khavda Solar Park by Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam. The stock has gained 6% in the past week.

  • Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone inks a share purchase agreement with Solar Energy to divest its 100% equity stake in Coastal International Terminals for $30 million.

  • Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Co is rising as its Q4FY23 net profit increases 23.7% YoY to Rs 852.8 crore, while its interest income grows by 43.5% YoY as disbursements surge by 65% YoY. The management says that the firm has gained market share across product segments in Q4. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with improving cash flows and high durability scores.

  • Patel Engineering, along with its joint venture partner, wins two projects worth a total of Rs 1,309.9 crore. The Tumkur branch canal micro-irrigation project is awarded by Visvesvaraya Jala Nigama, while the Sher micro-irrigation project is from the Water Resources Department of Madhya Pradesh. The company's share in these projects is Rs 508.2 crore.

  • Anil Rai Gupta, Chairman and Managing Director of Havells India, says the company’s margins are expected to improve to 13-15% in FY24 on the back of cooling input costs. He adds that it will not take further price hikes in the fan segment.

  • KRChoksey upgrades its rating on ACC to ‘Buy’ from ‘Accumulate’ but lowers its target price to Rs 2,166 from Rs 2,342. This implies an upside of 23.2%. The brokerage expects the company to benefit from the Centre’s focus on infrastructure and affordable housing due to its pan-India presence. It also expects margin pressure to ease in the coming quarters due to declining prices of crude, coal, and pet coke.

  • Telecom stocks like GTL Infrastructure, HFCL, Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) and Mahanagar Telephone Nigam are rising in trade. All constituents of the broader sectoral index S&P BSE Telecom are trading in the green.

  • Retail sales for the automotive industry fall 4% YoY to 17.2 lakh units in April, shows data from the Federation of Automotive Dealers' Association. Two-wheeler retail sales are down 7.3% YoY, while cars fall 1.3% YoY.

  • Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone’s April 2023 cargo volumes rise 12.8% YoY to 32.3 million metric tonnes (MMT). This growth is driven by rising volumes of dry cargo and containers. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with improving book value per share over the past two years.

  • HG Infra Engineering announces plans to sell its entire stake in its wholly owned subsidiaries like Gurgaon Sohna Highway, HG Rewari Ateli Highway, HG Ateli Narnaul Highway and HG Rewari Bypass to Highway Infrastructure Trust for an equity value of Rs 531 crore. The stock has touched a 52-week high in the past week.

  • G R Infraprojects wins an order worth Rs 737.2 crore from the Ministry of Road Transport and Highway for the construction of a four-lane highway with paved shoulders in the state of Uttar Pradesh.

  • Indian rupee appreciates to 81.82 from the previous close of 81.67 against the US dollar in early trade today.

  • Khurshed Yazdi Daruvala, promoter of Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy, sells a 0.5% stake in the company on Wednesday.

  • Tata Chemicals is falling despite reporting an increase in net profit by 53.6% YoY to Rs 711 crore in Q4FY23. Although its input costs have fallen, power and fuel costs rose 13% YoY. However, revenue has increased by 27% because of the growth in demand for soda ash, bicarbonate and salt. The company reports a decrease in net debt by 8% to Rs 3,898 crore.

  • Sona BLW Precision Forgings is rising after its net profit increased 14.5% YoY to Rs 119.8 crore in Q4FY23. Revenue has surged 35.5% with sales of battery electric vehicles. The company's net order book for FY23 stands at Rs 21,500 crore, an increase of 15.6% YoY.

  • Titan’s Q4FY23 net profit rises 50% YoY to Rs 734 crore despite an increase in expenses by 33%. Advertising and finance costs surge by more than 20% YoY in Q4. Revenue has also increased across all segments like watches and wearables, jewellery and eyecare, among others. It shows up in a screener of stocks with consistent returns over the past five years.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include General Insurance Corporation of India (184.70, 19.47%), Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company Ltd. (950.20, 7.17%) and Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd. (288.35, 6.21%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Petronet LNG Ltd. (226.80, -4.18%), Indian Railway Finance Corporation Ltd. (34.20, -3.53%) and Endurance Technologies Ltd. (1,335.40, -2.03%).

Volume Rockets

30 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included General Insurance Corporation of India (184.70, 19.47%), The New India Assurance Company Ltd. (126.65, 15.19%) and Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd. (67.45, 9.94%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were TTK Prestige Ltd. (702.05, -2.51%), Firstsource Solutions Ltd. (116.45, -1.27%) and Tata Chemicals Ltd. (982.25, -1.09%).

Chemplast Sanmar Ltd. (437.15, 1.50%) was trading at 7.8 times of weekly average. Kajaria Ceramics Ltd. (1,127.70, 3.61%) and Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company Ltd. (950.20, 7.17%) were trading with volumes 7.6 and 6.8 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

22 stocks took off, crossing 52-week highs, while 1 stock was an underachiever and hit its 52-week low.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Apollo Tyres Ltd. (359.75, 1.24%), Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company Ltd. (950.20, 7.17%) and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. (4,968.00, 0.32%).

Stock making new 52 weeks lows included - V-Mart Retail Ltd. (2,095.00, -0.88%).

19 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Suzlon Energy Ltd. (8.60, 6.17%) and Birla Corporation Ltd. (973.65, 4.72%). 7 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Mishra Dhatu Nigam Ltd. (207.45, -1.36%) and Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd. (71.75, -0.21%).

 
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The Baseline
03 May 2023
Five analyst picks with high profit and revenue growth in Q4
By Suhas Reddy

This week in analyst picks we take a look at companies with revenue and profit growth above 10% YoY in their Q4 results.

  1. Maruti Suzuki India: ICICI Securities maintains its 'Buy' rating on this automobile company with a target price of Rs 10,091, implying a 15% upside. In Q4FY23, the company reported a 20.5% YoY growth in revenue to Rs 32,791 crore and a 42.7% YoY increase in net profit to Rs 2,624 crore. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates, the company has fallen 0.8% short of revenue expectations, but marginally surpassed profit estimates by 0.1% during the quarter.

Analysts Basudeb Banerjee and Vishakha Maliwal note that Maruti Suzuki's Q4FY23 EBITDA margin of 10.5% is in line with their estimate of 10.6%. The analysts add that even though the volumes have increased by 11% QoQ, a higher revenue-sharing mix with Toyota and SMG impacted the gross margin by 60 bps QoQ. The analysts believe that the car manufacturer had to balance market share and profitability by prioritizing the allocation of available semiconductor supply for vehicle production, leading to a lower focus on the average selling price.

  1. ICICI Bank: Axis Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 1,150, implying an upside of 24.7%. In Q4FY23, the bank’s standalone net profit rose 30% YoY to Rs 9,121.9 crore and revenue was up by 36.8% YoY. It has beaten Trendlyne’s Forecaster profit estimates by 1.2%. 

Analysts Dnyanada Vaidya, Prathamesh Sawant and CA Bhavya Shah believe that the company has delivered a stellar performance in Q4, driven by robust credit growth across segments and improving asset quality. They remain optimistic about the stock’s prospects given its strong retail-focused liability franchise, stable asset quality, healthy provision coverage and capitalization. 

The analysts believe that the firm’s margins have peaked and will witness moderation as the cost of funds catches up. “However”, they write, “backed by pristine asset quality, thereby keeping credit costs benign, we remain confident in ICICI Bank’s ability to deliver RoA of 2%+ over the medium term”. They expect the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 14.2% over FY23-25.  

  1. Persistent Systems: HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this IT consulting & software company and raises its target price to Rs 5,880 from Rs 5,820. This implies an upside of 23.8%. In Q4FY23, its net profit rose 25.1% YoY to Rs 251.5 crore and revenue grew by 37.7% YoY. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, it has beaten revenue estimates by 0.1% but missed net profit estimates by 6.2%. 

Analysts Apurva Prasad, Amit Chandra and Vinesh Vala state that Persistent Systems is their top pick among mid-tier IT companies. They are bullish about its growth prospects due to its strong order book, consistency in large deal wins, improved client-mining and operational efficiencies. They add, “Attrition continued to trend lower and the company’s headcount increased by 291 in Q4, with plans of adding 850-1,000 freshers in FY24 and wage hike plans in Q2FY24.”

The analysts believe that the firm bagging its highest number of new deals in Q4 is a key positive, as a higher volume of large deals provides revenue growth visibility. They expect the IT firm’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 16.1% over FY23-25. 

  1. Tata Consumer Products: ICICI Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this packaged food  company with a target price of Rs 980, indicating an upside of 25.7%. In Q4FY23, the company’s net profit grew by 23.5% YoY to Rs 268.6 crore while its revenue increased by 14% YoY. Its revenue has surpassed Trendlyne’s forecaster estimates by 3.3% but profit missed estimates by 12.7%. 

Analyst Sanjay Manyal remains optimistic about the company due to its new product portfolio, which he believes has a large opportunity size that will drive volumes. He says, “A strong innovation and premiumisation strategy in salt and tea are expected to drive margins in established brands.” He also believes that margins will be aided by the softening of commodity prices along with price hikes. Manyal is positive about the company's long-term growth prospects, as Tata Starbucks crossed sales of Rs 1,000 crore, and with aggressive store addition, profits should grow at a faster pace. 

  1. Bajaj Auto: Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this automobile manufacturer with a target price of Rs 4,782. This indicates an upside of 6.3%. In Q4FY23, the company reported a profit of Rs 1,704.7 crore (up 11.7% YoY), while its revenue grew by 11.2% YoY. The auto company has surpassed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates of revenue and profit by 5.3% and 2.3%, respectively. The analysts say, “Despite pressure on volumes, Bajaj Auto reported better-than-expected results on account of a richer product mix.” Revenue exceeded their estimates by  7.1%. 

The analysts add that the company has been recovering faster in the three-wheeler and premium two-wheeler segments. They expect it to continue to increase its market share in both domestic and export markets on the back of a strong portfolio of premium brands and cost-effective entry-level products. They remain optimistic due to the auto manufacturer's diverse geography mix and strong presence in the domestic premium motorcycle segment, which they believe will drive operating performance even in a weak business scenario.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
03 May 2023
Market closes lower, Godrej Properties' Q4 net profit rises 58.2% YoY to Rs 412.1 crore

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 18,089.85 (-57.8, -0.3%), BSE Sensex closed at 61,193.30 (-161.4, -0.3%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 15,276.40 (-24.4, -0.2%). Of the 1,940 stocks traded today, 924 showed gains, and 966 showed losses.

Indian indices snapped their six-day gaining streak and closed in the red. Nifty 50 fell around 65 points and closed below the 18,100 mark. MRF rose over 5.5% as its Q4FY23 net profit surged 86% YoY to Rs 313.5 crore while its revenue increased by 10%.

Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green, despite the benchmark index closing in the red. Nifty Energy and Nifty Infra closed lower than Tuesday’s levels. Nifty IT closed in the red, in line with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which fell 0.9% on Tuesday. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, hotels, restaurants & tourism was the top-performing sector of the day for a second straight trading session.

European stocks traded in the green. However, major Asian indices closed lower. European stocks rose, led by banking stocks ahead of the interest rate decision by the US Fed later today. Eurozone unemployment hit a record low of 6.5% in March, the lowest since the EU's statistics agency started compiling jobless figures in April 1998. Brent crude oil futures extended losses and traded sharply lower after falling over 5.2% on Tuesday.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that stocks like Rail Vikas Nigam, Welspun India, Syngene International and Oracle Financial Services Software are in the overbought zone.

  • Havells India’s Q4FY23 net profit rises 1.6% YoY to Rs 358 crore and revenue grows by 9.8% YoY driven by its switchgear and cables segments. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with improving net cash flow over the past two years.

  • MRF, 3M India and Hindustan Aeronautics are trading above their second resistance or R2 level despite markets trading lower.

  • Bharat Heavy Electricalsrises over 6% in trade today. The stock ranks high on Trendlyne’s Checklist, scoring 72.7%. It also features in a screener of companies with strong momentum.

  • Godrej Properties is rising as its Q4FY23 net profit surges 58.2% YoY to Rs 412.1 crore and revenue grows by 23.7% YoY. The firm’s booking value and customer collections increase by 25% and 52% YoY in Q4. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with high TTM EPS growth.

  • MRF is rising as its Q4FY23 net profit surges 86% YoY to Rs 313.5 crore and revenue increases 10%. Net profit margin has improved 268 bps YoY to 5.76% in Q4. The company has declared a dividend of Rs 10 per share in FY23. The stock is trading near its 52-week high.

  • Transportation, fertilizers and healthcare equipment & supplies sectors rise more than 12% over the past 90 days.

  • Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories and Anupam Rasayan India touch their 52-week highs of Rs 4,960 and Rs 1,224.2, respectively. Dr. Reddy’s has risen 6.5% in the past month, while the other increased by 40.3%.

  • Virender Jeet, CEO of Newgen Software Technologies, says the company will grow over 20% in FY24. He adds that its margin will increase by 22%.

  • Sun TV Network’s annual RoCE stands at 27.2%, outperforming the broadcasting and cable TV industry by 9.2 percentage points.

  • Macrotech Developers, Dalmia Bharat and Persistent Systems underperform the Nifty 50 index over the month post their Q4FY23 results.

  • Adani Wilmar is falling as its Q4FY23 profit drops 60% YoY to Rs 93.61 crore, while its revenue declines 7%. The profit for FY23 also dips 27.6% to Rs 582.12 crore. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with low debt.

  • IT stocks like L&T Technology Services, LTIMindtree, Mphasis, Tata Consultancy Services and Coforge are falling in trade. All the constituents of the broader sectoral index Nifty IT are also trading in the red.

  • Aviation stocks like InterGlobe Aviation (Indigo), SpiceJet and Jet Airways are rising in trade after Go First filed for voluntary insolvency proceedings with the NCLT (National Company Law Tribunal).

  • Blue Star, Ceat and Hero MotoCorp's weekly average delivery volumes rise ahead of their Q4FY23 results tomorrow.

  • ICICI Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Ultratech Cement with a target price of Rs 9000, implying an upside of 19.7%. The brokerage remains positive about the company’s growth prospects given its market leadership, strong brand value, expansive retail presence and robust balance sheet. It expects the firm’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 12% over FY23-25.

  • Ahluwalia Contracts (India) wins an order worth Rs 744.7 from DLF Home Developers for the construction of civil structures and waterproofing work for the Arbour project located at Gurugram.

  • Indostar Capital Finance will open an offer for sale (OFS) today in which promoter group firms Everstone Capital Partners II and Indostar Capital will offload a 14.2% stake (1.9 crore shares) in the company. After the OFS, Indostar Capital will hold a 17% stake, while the promoter group will own 75%.

  • India’s services PMI surges to the highest level since June 2010, reaching 62 in April from 57.8 in March.

  • PSU bank stocks like Central Bank of India, Punjab & Sind Bank, UCO Bank and Bank of Baroda are falling in trade. All constituents of the broader index, Nifty PSU Bank, are also trading in the red.

  • Hulst BV, promoter of Coforge, sells a 3.5% stake in the company for approx Rs 887 crore in a bulk deal on Tuesday.

  • Crude prices fall sharply to around $75 per barrel. The decline is due to concerns about more rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and a decline in manufacturing activity in China, among other factors.

  • DCM Shriram is falling as its Q4FY23 net profit dips 53.5% YoY to Rs 186.7 crore and revenue declines by 2.7% YoY. The company’s profitability has been impacted by rising raw material and power & fuel costs, while its revenue is hit by weakness in its chloro-vinyl and farm solutions segments.

  • KEI Industries is rising as its Q4FY23 net profit increases by 19% YoY to Rs 138.1 crore. Revenue also rises 9% YoY, led by growth in cables & wires and stainless-steel wires segments. The company's profit margin improves by 60 bps YoY to 7.07% in Q4. The stock has touched its 52-week high in the past week.

  • Ambuja Cements is rising after reporting an increase in standalone net profit by 1.6% YoY to Rs 502.4 crore and an 8.4% rise in revenue. Expenses has grown 12% on high raw material costs in Q4. The company recommends a final dividend of Rs 2.5 per share for FY23. It shows up in a screener of stocks with growth in profit margin (QoQ).

  • Tata Steel’s Q4FY23 net profit plunges by 82.5% YoY to Rs 1,704.9 crore and its revenue falls by 9.2% YoY due to declining steel prices and weakness in its European business. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with weak Piotroski scores.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Indian Railway Finance Corporation Ltd. (35.45, 5.66%), MRF Ltd. (93,559.80, 5.60%) and InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. (2,164.10, 4.68%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Adani Wilmar Ltd. (397.45, -4.33%), Adani Enterprises Ltd. (1,839.00, -4.21%) and Adani Total Gas Ltd. (922.95, -3.76%).

Movers and Shakers

28 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Engineers India Ltd. (94.85, 14.90%), Ceat Ltd. (1,638.30, 7.68%) and Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. (86.95, 6.56%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Manappuram Finance Ltd. (113.95, -12.14%), Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation Ltd. (979.40, -5.84%) and DCM Shriram Ltd. (804.40, -1.82%).

Jamna Auto Industries Ltd. (104.20, -0.53%) was trading at 10.2 times of weekly average. Jyothy Labs Ltd. (193.75, 0.78%) and MRF Ltd. (93,559.80, 5.60%) were trading with volumes 10.0 and 9.2 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

26 stocks overperformed with 52-week highs, while 1 stock was an underachiever and hit its 52-week low.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Akzo Nobel India Ltd. (2,422.00, 0.51%), Apollo Tyres Ltd. (355.35, 2.64%) and Carborundum Universal Ltd. (1,104.70, -1.03%).

Stock making new 52 weeks lows included - GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (1,248.15, 1.43%).

16 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including RHI Magnesita India Ltd. (684.00, 6.30%) and PNB Housing Finance Ltd. (485.25, 5.92%). 8 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd. (71.90, -1.84%) and V-Guard Industries Ltd. (246.20, -1.64%).

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
02 May 2023
Market closes higher, Coal India's monthly production grows 7.7% YoY to 57.6 MT in April

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 18,147.65 (82.7, 0.5%), BSE Sensex closed at 61,354.71 (242.3, 0.4%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 15,300.75 (81.2, 0.5%). Of the 1,994 stocks traded today, 1,130 showed gains, and 790 showed losses.

Indian indices pared gains towards the end of the trading day and closed in the green. The Nifty 50 rose nearly 70 points and closed above the key 18,100 mark. According to the data released by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the joblessness rate of India rose to 8.1% in April from 7.8% in March. Rural unemployment fell marginally by 13 bps MoM to 7.3%.

Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 closed outperformed the benchmark index and closed in the green. Nifty Pharma and Nifty Realty closed lower than Friday’s closing levels. Nifty IT closed sharply higher, despite the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 closing flat on Monday. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Hotels, Restaurants & Tourism was the top-performing sector of the day as it rose over 2%.

Most European indices traded in the red except for Switzerland’s SMI trading in the green. European stocks traded lower as the Eurozone GDP grew by 1.3%YoY in Q1CY22 against the economist’s estimate of 1.4%. US indices futures trade lower indicating a negative start.

  • REC sees a long buildup in its May 25 future series as its open interest rises 4.7% with a put-call ratio of 0.84.

  • Rail Vikas Nigam is rising as it bags an order worth Rs 2,249 crore through its joint venture with SCC, in which the company has a 51% share. The project involves the construction and design of an irrigation distribution network in Banswara, Rajasthan. The project is expected to be completed in 42 months.

  • Alkem Laboratories and Indian Bank touch their 52-week highs of Rs 3,544.1 and Rs 330.7, respectively. Alkem Labs has risen 8.6% in the past month, while the other increased by 17.6%.

  • Coforge is falling in trade as 21.55 lakh shares (3.5% equity) of the company, amounting to Rs 891.8 crore, change hands, according to reports.

  • Coal India is rising as its production grows 7.7% YoY to 57.6 MT in April. The company's over burden removal (OBR) has improved by 31% YoY, which will help in stepping up coal production during monsoon.

  • Hitachi Energy India, Maruti Suzuki India, Bosch and Eicher Motors are trading above their third resistance or R3 level.

  • Tejas Networks, IndusInd Bank and Bank of Maharashtra outperform the Nifty 50 index over the month post their Q4FY23 results.

  • Reports suggest that 19.4 crore shares (0.94% equity) of Rail Vikas Nigam, amounting to Rs 229.7 crore, change hands in a large trade.

  • According to reports, brokerage CLSA downgrades Kotak Mahindra Bank to ‘Buy’ from ‘Outperform’ as it believes that the stock’s upside is limited, given the recent run-up in share price. Macquarie maintains its ‘Neutral’ rating on the bank, stating that the firm’s profitability is strong but growth is below expectations.

  • Energy stocks like Adani Green Energy, Oil and Natural Gas Corp and NTPC are rising in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty Energy index are also trading in the green.

  • Varun Beverages is rising as its Q1CY23 net profit surges 68.8% YoY to Rs 429.1 crore and revenue rises 37.8% YoY. This robust performance is driven by the total sales volume increasing by 24.7% YoY on account of healthy demand across India. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with improving cash flow from operations over the past two years.

  • V Vaidyanathan, Managing Director and CEO of IDFC First Bank, says the bank’s deposits will grow 40-45% in FY24. He expects the bank’s credit card business to be profitable by FY25.

  • IndiaMART InterMESH is falling as its net profit falls 2.8% YoY to Rs 55.8 crore in Q4FY23. However, revenue grows 33.5% YoY to Rs 268.8 crore on the back of growth in web & related services and accounting software services segments. It shows up in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue for the past eight quarters.

  • HDFC Securities downgrades Voltas to ‘Reduce’ from ‘Accumulate’ and lowers the target price to Rs 750 from Rs 925. This implies a downside of 6.5% from the current market price. The brokerage cites Voltas' loss in market share in key business segments as the reason for the downgrade and expects revenue to grow at a CAGR of 13.2% over FY23-25.

  • RBL Bank's net profit rises 37% YoY to Rs 271 crore in Q4FY23. Interest income also grows 17.1% YoY led by the retail and corporate banking segments. The bank's asset quality improves as its gross and net NPAs decline by 103 bps and 24 bps YoY respectively. It shows up in a screener of undervalued growth stocks.

  • According to reports, oil marketing companies (OMCs) like Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp may see a stake increase by the Centre, as they submit their capital investment plans. Instead of subsidies, the Rs 30,000 crore capital announced in the budget may be used for equity infusion in these OMCs.

  • NBCC India is rising as it bags an order worth Rs 749.3 crore to redevelop and modernize presses belonging to the Indian government in Mayapuri, Delhi, Nashik and Kolkata. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with no debt.

  • R Subramaniakumar, Managing Director and CEO of RBL Bank, says the bank's retail segment will grow by 24-25% in FY24. He adds that NIM (net interest margin) will be above 5%, while credit cost will be around 1.5-2%.

  • Mahindra & Mahindra's total wholesales for April 2023 rise 36.5% YoY to 62,294 units. Its total passenger vehicle wholesales also increase 54% YoY but total exports fall 32.9% YoY.

  • Metal stocks like Hindalco Industries, JSW Steel, APL Apollo Tubes and Tata Steel are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index BSE Metal is also trading in the green.

  • Centre reduces the windfall tax on locally produced crude oil to Rs 4,100 per tonne from the earlier Rs 6,400. Meanwhile, excise duty on petrol, diesel and ATF (aviation turbine fuel) remains nil.

  • Bajaj Auto's total wholesales rise 6.6% YoY to 3.3 lakh units in April 2023. Its total domestic wholesales also increase 108.6% YoY but exports drop 43.3% YoY.

  • NCC is rising as it bags six new orders worth Rs 3,344 crore in April from state and central government agencies for its buildings, electrical, and water divisions. The stock has touched a 52-week high today.

  • Ultratech Cement is falling as its Q4FY23 net profit declines 32% YoY to Rs 1,665.95 crore on higher costs. Power and fuel costs rise 34% YoY and freight expenses surge 20%. However, revenue increases 18% due to rising domestic sales. It shows up in a screener of stocks where brokers have upgraded recommendations or target prices in the past three months.

  • Kotak Mahindra Bank’s Q4FY23 net profit rises 26% YoY to Rs 3,495.59 crore with net interest income increasing 35%. The bank’s margins also improve 97 bps YoY to 5.75%. The bank has declared a dividend of Rs 1.5 per share for FY23. The stock is trading near its 52-week high.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Indian Railway Finance Corporation Ltd. (33.55, 5.67%), Adani Power Ltd. (235.95, 4.94%) and IDFC First Bank Ltd. (63.85, 3.91%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Atul Ltd. (6591.55, -4.08%), Delhivery Ltd. (364.60, -2.62%) and Hero MotoCorp Ltd. (2,495.90, -2.45%).

Movers and Shakers

34 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Welspun India Ltd. (101.05, 15.35%), Alkyl Amines Chemicals Ltd. (2,583.85, 9.30%) and Aarti Drugs Ltd. (457.80, 8.78%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Atul Ltd. (6,591.55, -4.08%), Timken India Ltd. (2,915.15, -2.29%) and V-Guard Industries Ltd. (250.30, -1.77%).

TCNS Clothing Co. Ltd. (502.75, 2.02%) was trading at 20.9 times of weekly average. Hatsun Agro Products Ltd. (882.00, 4.01%) and Sapphire Foods India Ltd. (1,242.90, 3.93%) were trading with volumes 15.8 and 13.5 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

37 stocks hit their 52-week highs, while 4 stocks were underachievers and hit their 52-week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Akzo Nobel India Ltd. (2,411.10, 3.72%), Bajaj Auto Ltd. (4,498.00, 1.49%) and Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation Ltd. (1,040.10, 0.29%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Atul Ltd. (6,591.55, -4.08%) and GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (1,230.60, -0.91%).

29 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Aarti Drugs Ltd. (457.80, 8.78%) and Hitachi Energy India Ltd. (3,448.75, 4.24%). 2 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Sanofi India Ltd. (5,427.10, -2.57%) and Tube Investments of India Ltd. (2,582.35, -0.26%).

 
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The Baseline
01 May 2023
Chart of the week: Stocks where FIIs and mutual funds are raising their stake
By Abdullah Shah

As Q4FY23 shareholding data comes in, we take a look at companies with the highest jumps in foreign institutional investment (FII) and mutual fund holding QoQ. This screener shows stocks with a more than 1% QoQ increase in their FII and mutual fund holdings in Q4FY23.

FIIs and mutual funds have been favouring stocks from the auto & auto components, and software & services sectors. Stocks that show up in the screener include Equitas Small Finance Bank, Sona BLW Precision Forgings, Syngene International, Coforge, Data Patterns, Samvardhana Motherson International and Hindustan Aeronautics.

Equitas Small Finance Bank’s FII and mutual fund holdings have increased the most in Q4FY23 – by 18.6% and 24.6% QoQ, respectively. The FII holding jump was on the back of investments from Ellipsis Partners Llc, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Rimco India. This is despite the Government of Singapore selling 1.4 crore shares (or 0.9% stake) in the banking & finance company.

Mutual funds like Franklin India Mutual Funds, SBI Mutual Fund and HDFC Mutual Fund bought 5.9%, 3.6% and 6% stake respectively in the bank over the same period. This influx of investments from FIIs and mutual funds helped the company’s stock price to rise by 26.6% over the past quarter.

Sona BLW Precision Forgings’ FII holding rose by 13.4% QoQ in Q4FY23, with the Government of Singapore being the largest buyer of 2.4 crore shares (or 4.1% stake) in the auto components company. Fidelity Funds and BNP Paribas Arbitrage bought 1.3% stake each in the same period.  SBI Mutual Fund bought 3.5 crore shares (or 6% stake), leading to a 5.3% rise in mutual fund holdings. The company’s stock rose 2.2% over the same period.

Syngene International was another stock that saw its institutional holding jump. Its FII holding increased by 6.4% QoQ in Q4FY23, as the Government of Singapore bought 1.6 crore shares (or 3.9% stake) in the pharmaceuticals & biotechnology company. Its mutual fund holding also saw a 3.3% QoQ rise in Q4FY23 on the back of Invesco India Arbitrage Fund buying 45.8 lakh shares. The investments made by FIIs and mutual funds aided the company’s stock to grow by 9.8% over the past 90 days.

In terms of share price performance of the 14 companies that made it into the screener, eight have risen over the past quarter

 
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The Baseline
28 Apr 2023
Five Interesting Stocks Today
  1. Nestle India: This packaged foods company hit its all-time high in share price of Rs 21,137 on Thursday after it posted a 24.7% YoY rise in net profit, to Rs 736.6 crore in Q4FY23. It has also beaten Trendlyne’s forecaster estimates, with revenue growing 21% YoY to Rs 4,830.5 crore on the back of double-digit sales growth across all product segments. This helps the company to show up in a screener of stocks where brokers upgraded recommendation or target price in the past three months.

According to its management commentary, the growth in sales in the domestic market was 21.2% YoY on the back of healthy pricing, high volumes and strong product mix. The packaged foods segment witnessed sales growth with the help of strong festive sales and consumer promotions. The confectionery segment also posted double-digit growth thanks to the rise in sales of Kitkat and Munch.

Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 22,990, indicating a potential upside of 11.3%. The brokerage believes that Nestle India’s strong positioning in the domestic food segment, improving out-of-home consumption, and penetration in rural markets will enable it to deliver  double-digit earnings growth in the long term. 

  1. Voltas: This consumer durable stock has fallen 5% in trade after announcing its Q4FY23 results. Its net profit has dropped by 21% YoY to Rs 143.9 crore due to provisions for delayed collections in its international business. The company’s margins also decreased by 240 bps YoY to 7.4% in Q4. Voltas had to cancel a joint venture (JV) with Highly International, a Hong Kong company, as it did not get the necessary approvals. The JV was intended to set up a manufacturing unit to build compressors and reduce import dependency.

Analysts at Jefferies suggest that the benefit of lower commodity prices has not been passed on in pricing and this may lead to volume and margin growth for the company in FY24. However, Goldman Sachs has given a ‘Sell’ rating on the stock, as it missed net profit estimates. Trendlyne’s Forecaster suggests that Voltas missed the estimates by 4.1%. ICICI Securities gives a ‘Hold’ rating on account of Voltas losing market share to its peers. Its market share dropped to 21.9% in February, against 25.2% in FY21. 

On a positive note, revenue increased by 10.9% YoY to Rs 2,956.8 crore, as Q4 saw the early arrival of summer in India. The management expects better sales and margins in Q1FY24 and adds that the unitary cooling products business has performed relatively well, despite low consumer sentiment in March. The stock has gained nearly 8.5% in the past three months.

  1. Bajaj Finance: Thisbanking and finance stock has outperformed itsNifty Financial Services index by 2% in the past month. The stock rose 4.2% in the past week according to Trendlyne’sTechnicals. The stock reaction came on the back of its Q4FY23 results, where it reported the highest-ever quarterly AUM addition of Rs 16,537 crore with 29% YoY growth. The growth was on account of higher lending in SMEs and the loan against securities segment.

Bajaj Finance’s profits increased by 30% YoY to Rs 3,518 crore, beating street estimates by 6%. The growth was on account of higher net interest margins (NIM), which remained flat at 10.6%, despite the cost of funds increasing substantially. Most analysts hadexpected the margins to contract. The firm also reported its lowest-ever net NPAs for the quarter at 0.34%. However, the provision coverage ratio of 64% gives room for further provisioning. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with consistently increasing profits for the past four quarters . 

Bajaj Finance’smanagement has guided FY24E with an AUM and profit growth of 26% and 23% respectively. On the negative side, management is expecting its gross NPA to increase from 0.94% currently to 1.4%-1.7% by the end of FY24.

Global Brokerage firmJefferies has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating, stating that profit growth can be expected at a 26% CAGR, aided by loan growth. The NIM is expected to contract, but will be offset by increased operating efficiencies. Bajaj Finance’s foray into credit cards will be a game-changer.

  1. IndusInd Bank: This bank’s share price fell 1.3% on Monday despite reporting strong Q4FY23 results. However, it has risen over 3% in the past three sessions till Thursday. It consequently features in a screener of companies with strong momentum scores. IndusInd Bank posted a 49.9% YoY increase in net profit to Rs 2,040.5 crore in the quarter. Its consolidated net interest income has also grown by 17.2% YoY, led by the corporate and retail banking segments. 

Commenting on the bank’s Q4 performance, Managing Director & CEO Sumant Kathpalia said that its loan growth accelerated to 21% YoY, led by retail deposit growth at 19% YoY. He also highlighted a new milestone, of the bank’s quarterly net profit crossing the Rs 2,000 crore mark for the first time. IndusInd Bank’s management has guided a 18-23% loan growth target for the next three years, FY23-26E.

Deposits grew 14.6% YoY led by retail deposits. The CASA ratio, however, declined to 40% from 42% in Q3FY23. The bank aims to increase the share of retail deposits to 48-50% by FY26E, driven by branch additions.

Although the bank reported healthy earnings in Q4, analysts are cautious due to the higher slippages QoQ, on account of MFI (microfinance institutions) loans and the downgrade of corporate restructured loans. KR Choksey maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the bank, stating that the asset quality has been stable, despite the increase in the slippages during the quarter.

  1. KPIT Technologies: This IT consulting & software company has risen 7.4% over two consecutive trading sessions since announcing its results on Wednesday, and touched its 52-week high of Rs 948.8 on Thursday. This uptrend was fuelled by its robust Q4FY23 performance despite the macroeconomic slowdown impacting Indian software companies. The company’s net profit rose by 41.5% YoY to Rs 111.6 crore, while its revenue jumped 56.1% YoY, led by healthy growth across business segments. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with revenues increasing sequentially for the past eight quarters. 

The company performed well in an environment where most Indian IT companies have battled a slowdown in international market growth.This mid-tier IT firm’s growth was driven by robust performance in the European and American segments. One reason may be that it is not directly exposed to the struggling international banking sector, as it primarily provides automotive software services. 

The US dollar revenue from the UK & Europe segment jumped 79.2% YoY, making it the largest contributor to the firm’s consolidated revenue in Q4. Its American segment grew 34.9% YoY, and revenue from the Asia segment declined by 10.1%

The management has set a conservative revenue growth guidance for FY24, similar to its peers, with a projected growth of 27-30%, which is lower than its growth guidance for FY23 (31-32%). However, the management is confident about its medium-term growth prospects on the back of healthy demand and a strong order book. 

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
28 Apr 2023
Market closes higher, Glenmark Life Sciences' Q4 net profit surges 48% YoY to Rs 146.4 crore

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 18,065.00 (150.0, 0.8%), BSE Sensex closed at 61,112.44 (463.1, 0.8%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 15,219.55 (144.5, 1.0%). Of the 1,949 stocks traded today, 1,255 showed gains, and 626 showed losses.

Indian indices rose sharply towards the end of the trading session and closed in the green for a fifth consecutive day. The Nifty 50 rose nearly 150 points and closed above the key 18,000 mark. In the past week, the benchmark Nifty 50 index has risen nearly 2.5% as investors analysed Q4FY23 earnings from major companies.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green, following the benchmark index. Nifty Media and Nifty PSU Bank closed sharply higher than Thursday’s closing levels. Nifty IT closed in the green, taking cues from the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which closed 2.76% higher on Thursday. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Hardware Technology & Equipment was the top-performing sector of the week as it rose over 12%.

Most European indices traded in the red, despite all major Asian indices closing in the green. European stocks traded lower as the French Consumer price index rose 5.9% YoY in April, ahead of the expected 5.7%, while Spanish CPI came in at 4.1%, higher than the previous month’s 3.3%. Brent crude oil futures traded lower and are set to post weekly losses for a second straight week.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Welspun India, Raymond and Varroc Engineering are in the overbought zone.

  • Star Health and Allied Insurance Co is rising as its posts a net profit of Rs 101.8 crore in Q4FY23, compared to a loss of Rs 82 crore in Q4FY22. The firm’s net premium earned rises 11.1% YoY. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with book value per share increasing over the past two years.

  • Gujarat State Fertilizer Chemicals rises 26.8% in the past week and outperforms the Nifty 500 index by 24.4%. The stock ranks high on Trendlyne’s checklist, scoring 73.9%. The company features in a screener of companies with strong momentum.

  • Finolex Cables and Larsen & Toubro hit their all-time highs of Rs 922.4 and 2,362.7 respectively. The former has risen 13.7% over the past month, while the other increased by 9.5%.

  • Mphasis rises as its Q4FY23 net profit increases 3.4% YoY to Rs 405.3 crore, with its revenue improving by 2.6% YoY. The company shows up in a screener of stocks with improving annual net profit for the past two years.

  • Rail Vikas Nigam rises 5.9% in trade today. It shows up in a screener of stocks which have gained more than 20% in the past month. The company also bags an order worth Rs 121 crore on Thursday.

  • Dipali Goenka, CEO of Welspun India, says the company’s sales will grow 10-12% in FY24. She adds that Welspun aims to reduce its net debt to Rs 1,000 crore by the end of FY24.

  • Glenmark Life Sciences is rising as its Q4FY23 net profit surges 48% YoY to Rs 146.4 crore and revenue increases 20.9% YoY. The robust performance is driven by strong traction in the API and CDMO segments. CFO Tushar Mistry attributes the growth to better margins from higher CDMO contribution, improved product mix, PLI benefit, and lower input costs.

  • PSU banks like UCO Bank, Central Bank of India and Punjab & Sind Bank are rising in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty PSU Bank index are also trading in the green.

  • Indian Hotels and Bank of Maharashtra’s annual profit growth outperform their respective sectors by 418% and 87.4% respectively.

  • PI Industries is surging as its subsidiary, PI Health Sciences, enters a share purchase agreement (SPA) with US based Therachem Research Medilab LLC (TRM US) to acquire a 100% stake in TRM India, Indian subsidiary of TRM US, for $42 million (approximately Rs 343.4 crore). It also enters an SPA with Plahoma Twelve GmbH to acquire a 100% stake in Archimia for 34.2 million euros (approximately Rs 307.8 crore).

  • Indian Hotels Co’s Q4FY23 net profit jumps 4.4X YoY to Rs 328.3 crore and revenue surges by 86.4% YoY on the back of robust demand and high revenue per room. The company’s EBITDA margin expands by 14.7 percentage points to 32.9%. Puneet Chhatwal, Managing Director and CEO, targets an EBITDA margin of 33% for FY25.

  • Trent is falling after posting a net profit of Rs 45 crore, which is lower than analyst estimates due to high discounting and poor product mix in Q4FY23. However, its revenue grows by 64.3% YoY to Rs 2,182.7 crore. The company shows up in a screener of stocks with good quarterly growth in Q4FY23.

  • KRChoksey downgrades its rating on Bajaj Auto to ‘Accumulate’ from ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 4,756, implying an upside of 7.3%. The brokerage has become more cautious about the company's future due to uncertainty surrounding the timing of export recovery. It also expects margins to stagnate in the coming quarters and sees limited upside given the stock’s recent run-up.

  • Fertilizers, hardware technology & equipment, realty and forest materialssectors rise more than 15% in the past month.

  • IRB Infrastructure is rising as it bags a contract worth Rs 7,380 crore to build Hyderabad Outer Ring Road (158 km long). The stock has gained 54.28% from its 52-week low.

  • LTIMindtree is rising as its net profit rises 0.5% YoY to Rs 1,113.7 crore in Q4FY23. Revenue also increases 21.9% YoY on the back of a strong order book of $1.4 billion (approximately Rs 1.1 lakh crore) during the quarter. The company shows up in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue for the past 4 quarters.

  • Umesh Revankar of Shriram Finance expects the company’s GNPA to fall below 6% in the coming year. He adds that credit cost will improve in the upcoming quarters. The company's consolidated net interest income for Q4FY23 amounts to Rs 4,533.6 crore.

  • Telecom stocks like Indus Towers, Tejas Networks, HFCL, Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) and Tata Communications are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index S&P BSE Telecom is also trading in the green.

  • Godrej Consumer Products will acquire Raymond Consumer Care’s FMCG business for Rs 2,825 crore. The stock has hit its 52-week high in the past week.

  • Tech Mahindra’s Q4FY23 net profit declines by 25.8% YoY to Rs 1,117.7 crore despite its revenue rising by 13.2% YoY. The firm’s profitability has been impacted by the contraction in its financial business vertical and higher employee costs. Its total contract value drops by 44% YoY to $592 million in Q4.

  • Satyanarayana Chava, Founder and CEO of Laurus Labs, expects an improvement in the company’s API (active pharmaceutical ingredient) sales and margins to reach 25% in FY24. He adds that Laurus’ margin has been the lowest in three years due to factors like the continued fall in the price of ARVs (antiretroviral drugs).

  • ACC reports a 41% YoY decline in Q4FY23 net profit to Rs 235.6 crore, with power and fuel costs and freight costs dropping by 9.4% and 1.8%, respectively. The cement segment drives an 8.2% YoY revenue increase. The stock has fallen 38% from its 52-week high.

  • Embassy Office Parks REIT's Chief Executive Officer Vikaash Khdloya resigns to pursue other interests, with effect from June 30, 2023. The board appoints Aravind Maiya as the Chief Executive Officer, effective from July 1, 2023.

  • Axis Bank is falling after reporting a net loss of Rs 5,361.8 crore in Q4FY23 against a net profit of Rs 4,417.7 crore in Q4FY22 because of the Citibank acquisition deal. Amitabh Chaudhary, MD & CEO, says that this is a one-time cost and if the acquisition cost is excluded, the bank’s profit would have grown by 61% YoY. Its net interest income has grown 33% YoY, while advances saw a 20% increase.

  • Wipro’s Q4FY23 net profit marginally falls by 0.4% YoY to Rs 3,074.5 crore on the back of higher employee costs and other expenses. Its revenue rises by 11.2% YoY, while its total bookings grow by 29% YoY. The firm’s last twelve-month attrition rate dips by 4.6 percentage points to 19.2%. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with declining net cash flow.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include PI Industries Ltd. (3,384.50, 10.40%), Indus Towers Ltd. (155.00, 7.01%) and Zomato Ltd. (64.90, 6.92%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Shriram Finance Ltd. (1,332.60, -5.19%), Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. (907.50, -4.83%) and Axis Bank Ltd. (860.00, -2.43%).

Volume Rockets

44 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd. (65.80, 15.74%), Lloyds Metals & Energy Ltd. (326.00, 15.56%) and Ceat Ltd. (1,557.20, 10.97%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. (907.50, -4.83%), CSB Bank Ltd. (279.50, -4.67%) and CESC Ltd. (68.50, -2.91%).

EIH Ltd. (188.75, 10.06%) was trading at 17.9 times of weekly average. Polyplex Corporation Ltd. (1,358.55, 7.39%) and Tejas Networks Ltd. (658.70, 4.58%) were trading with volumes 10.0 and 9.9 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

24 stocks hit their 52-week highs, while 4 stocks tanked below their 52-week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Apollo Tyres Ltd. (346.90, 1.60%), Bajaj Auto Ltd. (4,431.95, 0.54%) and CCL Products India Ltd. (599.10, -0.13%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - MMTC Ltd. (28.25, -11.30%) and Laurus Labs Ltd. (307.60, 5.32%).

24 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd. (65.80, 15.74%) and Ceat Ltd. (1,557.20, 10.97%). 3 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Sanofi India Ltd. (5,570.10, -6.62%) and Trent Ltd. (1,367.75, -1.05%).

 
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The Baseline
28 Apr 2023
Five stocks where promoters are raising their stakes
By Abhiraj Panchal

Investors pay close attention to changes in a company's promoter holding, as it reflects the bullish/bearish sentiments among senior insiders who know the details of the business' performance. Today we take a look at five stocks with this bullish signal in their shareholding - promoters increasing their stake during Q4FY23:

  1. Aster DM Healthcare: This healthcare facilities provider has seen a 4% increase in its promoter and promoter group holdings, which reached 41.9% in Q4FY23. Promoter group Union (Mauritius) Holdings, along with the family promoters Azad Moopen Mandayapurath, Alisha Moopen and Ziham Moopen acting in concert, purchased a 4% stake in the company. 

The promoter holdings remained unchanged for seven out of the past eight quarters, with the increase occurring only in the last quarter. 

Aster DM Healthcare has reported profits for 10 consecutive quarters.  But its net profit fell by 6% YoY to Rs 139.4 crore in Q3FY23. The stock price has increased 26.1% in the past year and 66.3% in the past two years. According to Trendlyne’s forecaster estimate, the healthcare facilities provider has a consensus recommendation of ‘Buy’, with seven ‘Strong Buys’, and one ‘Buy’ and ‘Hold’ each.  

  1. Quess Corp: This software and services company has seen its promoter Fairbridge Capital Mauritius purchase a 4.5% stake through a buyback of shares on the NSE. Promoter Ajit Isaac also increased his stake by 0.4%. As a result,  total promoter holdings increased to 56.7%. However, the net rise in promoter holdings over the past eight quarters is only 1.5%, as other sells happened over that period.

Quess Corp has reported profits for seven consecutive quarters, with its Q3FY23 profits  at Rs 88 crore (up 5% YoY) and revenue at Rs 4,472 crore (up 21.3%). The stock’s price, however, has dropped by 47.9% in the past year and 40.4% in the past two years. The reason for the share price drop could be the sequentially falling profits since Q4FY22. According to Trendlyne’s forecaster estimate, the company has a consensus recommendation of ‘Buy’, with three analysts rating it a ‘Strong Buy’, and one analyst each giving a ‘Hold’ and a ‘Sell’. 

  1. TCI Express: This logistics services provider has seen a 2.8% increase in its promoter and promoter group holding to 69.7% in Q4FY23. The promoter Vineet Agarwal acquired a 2.7% stake, increasing his overall holding to 5.2% in Q4. Apart from Agarwal, Bhoruka Express Consolidated also increased its stake in the company during the quarter. 

Total promoter holdings have risen by 3% in the past four quarters and 2.9% in the past eight.

TCI Express’ net profit fell 8.9% to Rs 32 crore in Q3FY23, while its revenue grew 9.3%. Even though the stock’s price fell 19.8% in the past year, it has increased by 64.5% in the past two years. Trendlyne’s forecaster estimate states that this logistic provider has a consensus recommendation of ‘Buy’ from nine analysts– five ‘Strong Buys’, two ‘Buys’, and one ‘Hold’ and ‘Strong Sell’ each.

  1. UPL: This agrochemicals company has witnessed a 1.6% increase in its promoter and promoter group holdings, to 32.4% in Q4FY23. Promoter groups Harmonic Ventures and Suresight Ventures increased their holdings in the company by 0.5% and 1.1% respectively. They bought shares through the open market in multiple small tranches. The total promoter holdings have increased by 3.9% in the past four quarters and 4.4% in the past eight quarters.

UPL reported a net profit of Rs 1,087 crore (up 16.1% YoY) and a revenue increase of 21.4% in Q3FY23. The stock price has fallen 8.2% in the past year but increased by 22.7% in the past two years. According to Trendlyne’s forecaster estimate, the agrochemicals manufacturer has a consensus recommendation of ‘Buy’ from 23 analysts, including 18 ‘Strong Buys’, four ‘Buys’ and one ‘Hold’.  

  1. Zydus Wellness: This FMCG company’s promoter and promoter group holding has increased by 1.1% to 66.5% in Q4FY23. Zydus Family Trust, a promoter of the company, acquired a 1.1% stake during the quarter through multiple small transactions in the open market between February 28, 2023 and March 29, 2023. The total promoter holding has increased by 1.6% in the past eight quarters.

Zydus Wellness has reported profits for nine consecutive quarters. In Q3, its profit stood at Rs 19.6 crore (down 16.1% YoY) and revenue was Rs 416.4 crore. The stock price has fallen 7.4% in the past year. According to Trendlyne’s forecaster estimate, the FMCG company has a consensus recommendation of ‘Buy’ from seven analysts, of which six are ‘Strong Buys’ and one is a ‘Buy’.

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
27 Apr 2023
Market closes higher, Textiles stocks like KPR Mill, Trident and Raymond are rising in trade

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 17,915.05 (101.5, 0.6%), BSE Sensex closed at 60,649.38 (348.8, 0.6%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 15,075.05 (80.7, 0.5%). Of the 1,952 stocks traded today, 1,131 were on the uptrend, and 757 went down.

Nifty 50 rose over 100 points from its day’s low and closed above the 17,900 mark on a volatile day of trade. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das stated that Indian Banks are resilient and not adversely impacted by recent global events, but their business models must be reviewed to ensure adequate capital and liquidity buffers.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green, following the benchmark index. Nifty FMCG closed flat after recovering from the day’s low. All other major sectoral indices closed higher than Wednesday’s levels. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, the Telecom Services was the top-performing sector of the day, rising over 1.6%.

All major European indices traded in the green, tailing major Asian indices that closed higher. US indices futures traded lower as investors waited for US Q1FY23 GDP numbers to be released later today.

The US House of Representatives narrowly passed a bill to raise the government's debt ceiling to USD 3.14 trillion while pushing for major spending cuts, against the wishes of President Joe Biden. The bill is expected to be dead on arrival in the Senate.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that stocks like Rail Vikas Nigam, Aurobindo Pharma, Gujarat State Fertilizer & Chemicals and Glenmark Pharmaceuticals are in the overbought zone.

  • Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das says that the Indian banking system has not been adversely impacted by the recent banking crisis in advanced economies. He adds that the RBI has started looking into the business models of banks and even nudged them to strengthen their capital buffers during periods of stability.

  • Embassy Office Park REIT's net profit declines 87.3% YoY to Rs 35.4 crore in Q4FY23. However, its revenue rises 15.8% YoY on the back of distributions of Rs 532 crore. According to Vikaash Khdloya, CEO of the company, it is well-positioned to take advantage of global businesses seeking skilled talent and low costs in India.

  • Mankind Pharma’s Rs 4,326.4 crore IPO gets bids for 15.32X the available 2.8 crore shares on offer on the last day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 92% of the available 1.4 crore shares on offer.

  • Bajaj Finserv is rising as its Q4FY23 net profit increases by 31.4% YoY to Rs 1,769 crore, while its revenue rises 25.3% YoY. This growth is driven by rising interest income and premiums from its insurance business. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with improving book value per share over the past two years.

  • Morgan Stanley maintains its ‘Overweight’ rating on HDFC Life Insurance Co and increases the target price to Rs 700. The brokerage has also raised the APE (annualized premium equivalent) and VNB (value of new business) estimates for FY24/25 by 5% and 1-3% respectively.

  • Textiles stocks like KPR Mill, Trident, Raymond and Alok Industries are rising in trade. The broader sector of textiles is also trading in the green.

  • HDFC Life Insurance, Hindustan Zinc, Lupin and Godrej Consumer Products are trading below their second support or S2 level.

  • CSB Bank, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals and SBI Cards and Payment Services rise 5.2%, 3.2% and 2.1% respectively over the past week, ahead of their Q4FY23 results tomorrow.

  • Hindustan Unilever’s Q4FY23 net profit rises 12.8% YoY to Rs 2,600 crore, with total sales increasing 10.8%. Revenue has also grown across segments like home care, beauty & personal care and food. Sanjiv Mehta, MD & CEO, says that with easing inflation, lowering commodity prices and consumption readjustment, price and volume growth will rebalance.

  • Voltas is falling as its net profit declines 21.3% YoY to Rs 143.9 crore on the back of higher input costs and other expenses. However, the firm’s revenue rises 10.9% YoY driven by growth across all business segments. The company shows up in a screener for stocks trading below their short, medium and long-term averages.

  • Shoppers Stop is surging as it reports a net profit (Rs 14.3 crore) for the fourth consecutive quarter in Q4FY23. Revenue rises 29.5% YoY to Rs 923.9 crore on the back of growth in sales from the private brands and beauty segments. The stock is trading 63.2% higher than its 52-week low of Rs 396.6.

  • Suresh S Iyer, Managing Director and CEO of Can Fin Homes, says the company’s asset quality has improved marginally. He adds that Can Fin’s loan growth will be around 18-20% in FY24.

  • Coforge is rising despite a 44.7% YoY fall in net profit to Rs 114.8 crore due to a provision made by the company in the form of exceptional items worth Rs 52 crore. Revenue for the company has grown 24.5% YoY, with the total order book rising 21% in Q4.

  • HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Persistent Systems and raises its target price to Rs 5,880 from Rs 5,820, indicating an upside of 28.4%. The brokerage states that the company is its top pick among mid-tier IT stocks, given its strong order book, consistency in winning large deals, improved client mining and operational efficiencies.

  • Indus Towers’ Q4FY23 net profit dips 23.5% YoY to Rs 1,399.1 crore, while its revenue drops 5.1%. The company has made additional provisions worth Rs 43 crore towards Vodafone Idea, taking cumulative provisions to Rs 5,453 crore on account of doubtful receivables. Indus Towers has fallen 9% in the past three months.

  • Sachin Titekar, Joint Managing Director of KPIT Technologies, says the company’s revenue will grow 27-30% and its EBITDA margin will be 19-20% in FY24. He adds that the company targets to improve its margins to over 20% in the coming years.

  • Realty companies like Macrotech Developers, Godrej Properties, Phoenix Mills, Prestige Estates Projects and Sobha are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index Nifty Realty is also trading in the green.

  • Syngene International is rising as its Q4FY23 net profit increases by 20.9% YoY to Rs 178.7 crore while its revenue grows by 31.2% YoY. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with net profit increasing sequentially for the past three quarters.

  • Mahindra Logistics, Tanla Platforms and Voltas see a QoQ fall in net profit growth after declaring their Q4FY23 results in the past week.

  • L&T Technology Services is rising as its Q4FY23 net profit increases 18% YoY to Rs 309.6 crore. Revenue has increased across all segments, taking total growth to 19%. Amit Chadha, MD & CEO, says that the company targets revenue growth of 20% for FY24. The stock is up 5% in trade.

  • JP Morgan maintains its ‘Overweight’ rating on Bajaj Finance with a target price of Rs 9,000. The brokerage says the company’s NIMs are stable on a QoQ basis in spite of high funding costs. Its AUM has grown 29% YoY.

  • City Union Bank surges after it reappoints N Kamakodi as the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, with effect from May 1, 2023.

  • Ipca Laboratories is falling after the US FDA issued a Form 483 with three observations for its Silvassa facility. The stock has touched its 52-week low in the past week.

  • SBI Life Insurance is rising as its Q4FY23 net profit increases 15.6% YoY to Rs 776.8 crore. The company’s new business premium has grown 16% YoY in FY23 and the product mix improved for participating and non-participating products. The stock is trading above its second resistance or R2 level.

  • Bajaj Finance’s Q4FY23 net profit rises 30.5% YoY to Rs 3,157.7 crore. The NBFC’s total loans and assets under management have grown more than 20% and net interest income also rose 28% YoY to Rs 7,771 crore. It shows up in a screener of stocks with high TTM EPS growth.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include L&T Technology Services Ltd. (3,731.00, 8.24%), Vodafone Idea Ltd. (6.90, 5.34%) and Tata Elxsi Ltd. (6,578.20, 4.57%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Voltas Ltd. (808.40, -5.41%), Laurus Labs Ltd. (292.05, -2.65%) and HDFC Life Insurance Company Ltd. (517.85, -2.59%).

Volume Shockers

30 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd. (60.95, 11.43%), L&T Technology Services Ltd. (3,731.00, 8.24%) and Alok Industries Ltd. (12.70, 7.17%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Voltas Ltd. (808.40, -5.41%), Laurus Labs Ltd. (292.05, -2.65%) and UTI Asset Management Company Ltd. (657.30, -1.31%).

Network 18 Media & Investments Ltd. (58.90, 7.09%) was trading at 14.6 times of weekly average. Star Cement Ltd. (115.85, 3.53%) and Shoppers Stop Ltd. (644.50, 4.41%) were trading with volumes 9.1 and 8.8 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

21 stocks hit their 52-week highs, while 4 stocks hit their 52-week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Bajaj Auto Ltd. (4,408.20, 2.54%), Carborundum Universal Ltd. (1,057.75, -0.84%) and Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company Ltd. (854.40, 1.92%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - PVR Ltd. (1,458.80, 0.63%) and Aavas Financiers Ltd. (1,400.90, -2.37%).

12 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd. (60.95, 11.43%) and L&T Technology Services Ltd. (3,731.00, 8.24%). 7 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Lupin Ltd. (693.75, -1.97%) and Shyam Metalics and Energy Ltd. (293.70, -1.33%).