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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    11 Dec 2024
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - December 11, 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - December 11, 2024

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Tata Power:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates a ‘Buy’ rating on this electric utilities company with a target price of Rs 509, indicating an upside potential of 17%. Analysts Abhishek Nigam and Preksha Daga note that Tata Power plans a capex of Rs 1.5 lakh crore over the next five years, approximately three times the capex incurred over the last five years. As part of this, the company has revised its annual capex guidance for FY26-27 to Rs 25,000-26,000 crore, up from the earlier range of Rs 22,000-23,000 crore.

    The analysts highlight that the company expects to double its transmission and distribution capacity to 10,500 circuit kilometers (cKm) by FY30, up from the current 4,633 cKm. The operational green capacity target for 2030 has been increased to 23 GW from the earlier 20 GW. Meanwhile, the under-construction pipeline has significantly expanded to 10 GW, up from 3.7 GW previously.

    Nigam and Daga note that the management plans to double its EBITDA and net profit to Rs 30,000 crore and Rs 10,000 crore by FY30, respectively. They expect a CAGR of 7.3% in net sales, 6% in EBITDA over FY25-27.

    2. Supreme Industries:

    Sharekhan retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this plastic products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 5,700, indicating an upside potential of 15.8%. In Q2FY25, the company reported a net profit decline of 15% YoY to Rs 206.6 crore. Revenue decreased 1.4% YoY to Rs 2,288 crore during the quarter. Regarding the results, analysts said, “Earnings were hit by the sharp fall in PVC prices, weak infrastructure demand and extended monsoons.”

    Analysts note that the company is entering the gas piping market with an initial capacity of 3,000 tonnes per month, set to begin sales in the current quarter. The annual market size for gas pipes is estimated at 1 lakh tonnes. The company's total capital expenditure plan stands at Rs 1,500 crore. Plastic pipes capacity is set to increase to 8.4 lakh tonnes by FY25, up from 7.4 lakh tonnes in FY24.

    Analysts mention that the management expects a revenue/net profit CAGR of 16%/18% over FY25-27. The brokerage notes healthy demand outlook and incremental capacity additions are likely to drive an 18% net earnings CAGR over FY25-27.

    3. Dhanuka Agritech:

    Axis Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ rating on this agrochemicals manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,760, indicating an upside potential of 9.7%. Analysts Sani Vishe and Shivani More highlight that the company has recently shifted its outlook from negative to positive for FY25. The business has a portfolio of  approx. 90 products and a pan-India distribution network with around 6,500 distributors and dealers, along with 80,000 retailers.

    In Q2FY25, Dhanuka Agritech’s revenue grew 5.9% YoY to Rs 654.3 crore, but missed Forecaster estimates by 1.3%. Analysts attribute the miss to around Rs 100 crore in sales returns from Q1 due to continuous rainfall in the months of August and September, which delayed the spraying of insecticide. However, with good reservoir levels and favorable groundwater conditions, Rabi acreages are expected to improve.

    Initially, the management had anticipated a 100 bps YoY decline in margins for FY25. However, this outlook has now been revised to a 100 bps improvement, driven by positive market response to new product launches like Purge, LaNevo, and MYCORe SUPER.

    Vishe and More expect that the company will deliver strong top-line and margin growth in FY25, driven by a robust product mix, improving prices, and a strong Rabi season. They expect the firm's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 17.3% over FY25-27.

    4. Uno Minda:

    Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this auto parts manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,209. This indicates a potential upside of 13.4%. Uno Minda reported a 17.2% YoY revenue growth to Rs 4,245 crore in Q2FY25, driven by new customer additions in the 2-wheeler (2W) and 4-wheeler (4W) segments and leveraging its client base. EBITDA margin improved by 28 bps to 11.4%, supported by a superior product mix. The company’s management expects margins to remain in the 11-12% range in FY25, considering the ongoing capex and expansion efforts.

    The automotive industry saw a 9% YoY increase in production volumes for Q2FY25, driven primarily by the 2W segment, which saw a 12.5% rise, reaching 62.6 lakh units. Analyst Saji John said, "The channel inventory correction has shown signs of improvement over the past two months, and we expect the auto industry to deliver stronger volume growth in the second half of the fiscal year compared to the first." 

    The company is working on increasing its kit value across all segments by expanding capacity and forming partnerships, despite the slow growth in the EV market. It has partnered with Hyundai Mobis to manufacture automotive speakers and secured a significant order for EV charging solutions from a Japanese original equipment manufacturer (OEM). John expects a revenue CAGR of 24% and a net profit CAGR of 23.7% over FY25-27.

    5. Sonata Software:

    Emkay initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this IT solutions provider with a target price of Rs 780, indicating an upside of 16.3%. The company’s international IT services business achieved a 26% revenue CAGR over FY21-24 and a 4.3% quarterly growth over the past 10 quarters. While revenue growth slowed in the last three quarters due to macro uncertainty, analysts Dipesh Mehta and Kevin Shah view this as a “temporary setback”. They expect strong growth as market conditions improve, with increased consumer spending anticipated in CY25.

    Sonata Software has a long-standing partnership with Microsoft. Mehta and Shah believe the partnership gives SSOF an opportunity for growth within the Microsoft ecosystem. Sonata expects AI services to contribute 20% to the company’s revenue in the next three years.

    Sonata aims for a revenue of $1.5 billion by FY27. The company’s focus on building a large-deal team has led to consistent growth in deals worth over $5 million, increasing from 10 in FY23 to 14 in FY24, and 6 in H1FY25. Analysts expect the company to return to top-quartile revenue growth as demand stabilizes.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    06 Dec 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - December 06, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - December 06, 2024

    1. Dixon Technologies:

    This smartphone manufacturer rose 11.6% over the past week to hit an all-time high of Rs 17,530 on Thursday. The surge came after the announcement that its subsidiary, Padget Electronics, will commence mass production of Google Pixel smartphones in collaboration with Compal Smart Device India. Google aims to ship over 10 million Pixel phones globally this year, following the shipment of about 10 million units in 2023.

    Dixon Technologies' revenue surged 2.3X YoY to Rs 11,528.4 crore in Q2FY25, driven by a 235% YoY rise in its mobile & EMS segment. However, the company expects the contribution from the mobile segment to reduce from 70% to 60-65% by FY26, due to strong order inflow in the telecom and IT hardware segments.

    In the IT hardware segment, Dixon has partnered with four of the top five players, covering 70-75% of the market, and plans to scale up production in the coming quarters. The company will begin production for Lenovo in Q3FY25, followed by Asus in Q4FY25, and targets a revenue of Rs 4,500-5,000 crore in the next 2-3 years for the IT hardware segment.

    Telecom segment revenues have grown sharply, rising from Rs 17.3 crore in FY22 to Rs 690 crore in FY24, driven by increasing demand from Bharti Airtel for set-top boxes. To support this growth, Dixon plans to double its telecom capacity at its Noida facility.

    The company’s production-linked incentives (PLI) are ending in FY26. PLI is a government scheme that offers financial incentives to companies to increase their production in specific sectors. Dixon Technologies has been declared eligible under the reworked PLI 2.0 scheme for IT products. Commenting on this, MD Atul Lall said “We have committed to a total production value of Rs 48,000 crore over the six years of the PLI scheme. By the third year, we expect our annual revenue to stabilize between Rs 4,500-5,000 crore.”

    Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on Dixon with a target price of Rs 18,800, indicating a potential upside of 7.9%. The brokerage believes that onboarding top-tier clients in the IT hardware segment positions Dixon for growth in the coming years. While the mobile & EMS segment is expected to lead, other verticals, including IT hardware and laptops, are likely to contribute to overall performance.

    2. PG Electroplast:

    This consumer electronics company has gained 16.2% over the past week following board approval for a qualified institutional placement (QIP) to raise Rs 1,500 crore on December 4. This QIP will result in an equity dilution of 6.7%.

    PG Electroplast posted a 56.3% YoY rise in net profit to Rs 19.3 crore in Q2FY25, and a 45.7% increase in revenue YoY due to a strong order book across its product lines. The product business (mainly home appliances), contributing 53.7% to the total revenue, grew 106% YoY. The room air conditioners (RAC) segment saw a growth of 212% due to the extended summer season, while the washing machine business grew 23% YoY during the same period. Operating profit margins improved by 3% YoY in Q2, driven by cost control and operating leverage.

    Last month, the company, through its wholly owned subsidiary PG Technoplast, signed a definitive agreement with Spiro Mobility, an electric two-wheeler company based in Africa. Under the agreement, the company will serve as Spiro Mobility’s exclusive manufacturing partner for electric vehicles in India. Vishal Gupta, MD (Finance), said, “We are looking at a revenue of around Rs 500 crore by the second year of operation.”

    Nuvama maintains a ‘Buy’ rating after the company surpassed Q2FY25 expectations by 10%. The brokerage expects the company to achieve a revenue and net profit CAGR of 29% and 43%, respectively, over FY25-27. However, it highlights unfavourable weather conditions and delays in ramping up new categories as key risks.

    3. Aster DM Healthcare:

    Thishealthcare company surged 11.4% over the past eight trading sessions, following a merger announcement with Blackstone-backed hospitals operator Quality Care India (QCIL). The merged entity, Aster DM Quality Care, aims to become one of India's top three hospital chains in terms of revenue and bed capacity.

    The new entity will have a network of 38 hospitals and over 10,150 beds across 27 cities and nine states with a market presence in South and Central India. Aster shareholders will own 57.3% of the merged entity, while QCIL shareholders will hold the remaining 42.7%. Azad Moopen, Founder and Chairman of Aster DM Healthcare, will continue as the Executive Chairman, and Varun Khanna, Group MD of Quality Care, will become the MD and Group CEO of the merged entity.

    Alisha Moopen, Deputy Managing Director of Aster DM Healthcare,said “The merged entity will be uniquely positioned to pursue both brownfield and greenfield expansion projects with plans to reach 13,300 bed capacity by FY27.” 

    InQ2FY25, Aster DM Healthcare reported a revenue of Rs 1,086.4 crore beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 1.3%, despite declining 67.2% YoY due to the sale of its GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) business to a consortium led by Fajr Capital in Q4FY24. However, the company’s revenue grew by 8.5% QoQ.

    In H1FY25, the company’s average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB)rose by 11.8% YoY to Rs 43,600. The company plans toadd 1,800 beds by FY27, increasing its total capacity to 6,800.

    After the merger announcement, Prabhudas Lilladharmaintains its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 620, indicating an upside potential of 26.4%. The brokerage expects an EBITDA CAGR of 24% over FY25-27 and notes that the management aims for a 10-15% increase in EBITDA over the next 3-4 years driven by optimizing material and manpower costs.

    4. Cochin Shipyard:

    This marine port & services company rose 5% on December 2 after securing a contract worth Rs 1,000 crore from the Defence Ministry. The contract involves the short refit and dry docking of a large Indian naval vessel. In addition, the Defence Acquisition Council approved five capital acquisition proposals totalling over Rs 21,772 crore, providing a boost to defence stocks like Hindustan Aeronautics, Bharat Dynamics, and shipbuilders including Cochin Shipyard. The procurement includes equipment for the Indian Navy, Coast Guard, and Air Force. 

    Cochin Shipyard has surged by 7.1% over the past week. This rise in share price is also driven by a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by the company with Seatrium Letourneau USA. This involves designing and providing critical equipment for jack-up rigs for the Indian market on November 25.

    As of September 30, 2024, Cochin Shipyard’s order backlog stands at Rs 22,000 crore,  providing strong revenue visibility over the next few years. Speaking on this Madhu S Nair, the CEO said, “Our order book reached an all-time high during the second quarter, which involved building 65 ships, with the bulk of the orders coming from Germany, Norway, Cyprus, and the Netherlands. Apart from these, we have our focus on making green ships and already fulfilling orders for hydrogen fuel cell and methanol ships, electric ships, hybrid ships, and other sophisticated ships.” During the quarter, the company completed the capacity expansion of its dry dock and international ship repair facility. This is expected to improve its operational capability, enabling the construction and repair of larger vessels. 

    The company reported a 13% YoY increase in revenue to Rs 1,143.2 crore in Q2, led by better execution in the shipbuilding and ship repair segments. Net profit grew 4.1% YoY to Rs 188.9 crore during the quarter. However, EBITDA margins declined 260 bps YoY to 18%, due to higher input costs and lower shipbuilding margins.

    Geojit BNP Paribas has a ‘Buy’ rating on Cochin Shipyard with a target price of Rs 1,557, which the company has already surpassed. The brokerage believes the company’s long-term prospects have improved in terms of capacity expansion, order visibility, and ship repair orders.

    5. Solar Industries India:

    This industrial products company rose by over 3% on December 2 as it received its largest-ever export order worth Rs 2,039 crore for the supply of defence products, over a period of four years. Following this, on December 4, the Defence Acquisition Council, led by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh approved five defence acquisition proposals worth over Rs 21,772 crore, creating a potential opportunity for the company in defence orders.

    The company released its Q2FY25 result on November 13. Its net profit rose by 48.2% YoY to Rs 285.9 crore, while its revenue rose 28.9% YoY on the back of a rise in defence order inflows. However, the company missed Trendlyne Forecaster's revenue estimate by 10% and net profit estimate by 21% due to delays in the Indian 'Pinaka' (rocket launcher) order and slow growth in the construction and infrastructure segments. It appears in a screener of stocks that have consistently given high returns over five years in Nifty500.

    ICICI Securities notes that the market is underestimating the impact of the company's ongoing export order inflows in the defence sector. With Rs 4,500 crore in orders for CY24, they expect annual revenue growth of Rs 1,100–1,300 crore. The defence order book, at Rs 3,360 crore before Q2FY25, is expected to rise to Rs 5,000–5,200 crore with the new order.

    Manish Nuwal, CEO & managing director of the company, revised the FY25 capex guidance upward to Rs 1,200 crore and also expects defence product sales of Rs 1,500 crore, making up 20% of total sales. Regarding the Pinaka orders, he said, “Due to Diwali and the holiday season, Pinaka orders were delayed, but we expect to receive them within a month, marking a significant milestone for our company.”

    ICICI Securities retains its ‘Buy’ rating on Solar Industries with a target price of Rs 13,250. The brokerage notes that the incremental earnings from domestic orders are likely to sustain defence revenues for the company at Rs 1,800-2,500 crore on average and keep margins elevated over the next four years. At this stage, the brokerage’s FY26 EPS estimate is 10% higher than consensus and it believes that upward revisions are likely. 

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    06 Dec 2024
    FIIs keep buying some sectors amid a broader selloff | Screener: Outperforming stocks with strong estimates for Q3

    FIIs keep buying some sectors amid a broader selloff | Screener: Outperforming stocks with strong estimates for Q3

    By Tejas MD

    For the last couple of years, India has basked in its status as a 'star performer' in the global economy, with strong growth even as China sputtered. But our article in October worried about signals that suggested that India's growth engine was slowing down. At the time, there was mostly anecdotal evidence from management about weak demand and consumer sentiment.

    But the latest GDP data has proved this beyond doubt. India’s growth came in sharply lower than expectations, at a seven-quarter low of 5.4% in Q2FY25. 

    Suresh Narayanan, chairman and managing director of Nestlé India said in a media briefing, “The market is facing muted demand. It's extremely clear - the growth in the food and beverages sector which used to be double digits a couple of quarters ago, is now down to 1.5% to 2%”.

    Most sectors saw economic activity slump in Q2, with mining and construction among the weakest. Manufacturing growth also slowed to a six-quarter low of 2.2%.

    After the GDP report, analysts rushed to downgrade their growth forecasts for India. Goldman Sachs cut their projection to 6% in FY25, down from 6.4%. 

    After lowering her FY25 projection to 6% from 6.5%, Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay Global Financial Services said, “The growth shock was due to lower manufacturing growth. We see urban consumption also staying pale owing to weaker incomes.” 

    The RBI had projected a 7.2% GDP growth for FY25, which now looks quite out of reach, and is likely to be lowered at its next monetary policy meeting on December 6. Will lower GDP growth have any effect on RBI’s interest rate decision? RBI so far has stubbornly refused to cut rates, citing high food inflation. 

    Stocks have been under pressure from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) selling. But there are sectors where FIIs have stayed bullish. Let’s dive in. 

    • Holding on: FII sector picks during the market correction
    • Screener: Stocks outperforming their industries in Q2 revenue and profit growth with strong Forecaster estimates for Q3

    FIIs press sell, but some sectors see inflows 

    FIIs have been relentlessly selling Indian equities since late September. India was no longer the star attraction this quarter due to China’s stimulus moves, higher-than-expected inflation, weak Q2 earnings, and US election jitters. October saw a historic high for FII outflows.

    But sectoral data reveal some FII favourites - and some who aren't.

    One consistent favorite, where FIIs kept buying even during the sell-off, is healthcare, a defensive sector. Regardless of market cycles, people get sick and need medicines and treatment, making healthcare an attractive choice for cautious investors. 

    Another standout was chemicals, the only sector with inflows across all these months. Despite grappling with high raw material and freight costs over the past two years, analysts see it recovering from multi-year margin lows.

    Realty and IT also found favor with FIIs last quarter. But banking & finance, consumer durables and FMCG, initially net gainers, flipped mid-quarter as FIIs turned bearish. A slow rural recovery and soaring inflation have dampened FMCG prospects, especially after dismal Q2 GDP data showed private consumption growth slowing.

    Power and oil & gas saw significant outflows, with the latter showing disappointing Q2 profits due to weaker refining margins and heavy inventory losses. The auto and auto components sector was a mirror image to chemicals, with FIIs selling across all months.

    FII favourites outperform the Nifty 50 in the past quarter

    The Nifty 50 touched multiple all-time highs earlier this year, only to take a sharp U-turn in October, sliding into correction territory with a 10% dip from its peak. During this volatile quarter, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) saw their favorite sectors outperform the benchmark index.

    FII favored sectors outperform the Nifty 50 in the past quarter

    FIIs’ least preferred sectors tumbled sharply, with one exception: banking and finance, which managed to hold its ground amidst the sell-off.

    Which companies drove these sector shifts?

    Healthcare and Chemicals stocks keep gains

    Leading the pack of top performing stocks are two consumer durables players: Premier Energies and Waaree Energies. Both debuted on the market this past quarter, and haven’t stopped climbing since.

    In the Pharma sector, Piramal Pharma stole the spotlight. Strong traction in its CDMO segment pushed Q2 results beyond expectations. Low manufacturing prices and government incentives such as the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) plan have turned India into an appealing CDMO destination for global companies that are diversifying away from China.

    Top contributors in FII preferred sectors rise in the past quarter 

    Oberoi Realty and Persistent Systems have also risen in the past quarter due to strong Q2 results. Both companies beat their net income estimates according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster. 

    Tough times for Auto and Oil & Gas: What’s Driving the Decline?

    The last quarter has been brutal for auto and oil & gas, with both sectors facing significant headwinds. Auto manufacturers like Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, and TVS Motor saw stock prices tumble, reflecting falling year-on-year sales across passenger, commercial, and two-wheeler segments.

    Adding to the gloom, Bajaj Auto's Executive Director Rakesh Sharma admitted that they had miscalculated, “The response in the motorcycle industry is a little bit muted…we thought that 6 to 8% growth will be there in the festive period, but it is not that much. It is 1 -2%”.

    Oil & gas sector falls sharply in the past quarter

    In the oil & gas sector, intense margin pressure has dragged down performance, with Reliance Industries—India’s largest company by market cap—underperforming the Nifty 50. The sector has struggled to offset weaker refining margins and larger-than-expected inventory losses.

    Finally, the FMCG and electric utilities sectors also lagged the Nifty 50. In the FMCG sector, none of the top ten companies managed to outperform the benchmark, averaging a sharp 10.2% decline in stock prices.


    Screener: Stocks outperforming their industries in Q2 revenue and profit growth with strong Forecaster estimates for Q3

    Restaurants and electrical equipment stocks have the highest Forecaster estimates in Q3

    With the end of the Q2FY25 result season, we take a look at stocks that have outperformed their industries in revenue and net profit growth in Q2, with high Forecaster estimates for Q3FY25. This screener shows stocks outperforming their industries in revenue and profit, with estimates for the next quarter suggesting an upbeat outlook.

    The screener contains stocks from restaurants, IT consulting & software, banks, heavy electrical equipment, and pharmaceutical industries. Major stocks that appear in the screener are Godrej Properties, Dixon Technologies (India), Kaynes Technology India, Zomato, Suzlon Energy, Au Small Finance Bank, Devyani International, and Jubilant Foodworks. 

    Godrej Properties features in the screener as Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates its revenue and EPS to grow by 162.8% YoY and 383% YoY respectively, in Q3FY25. This comes after its revenue and net profit grew by 122.5% YoY and 401.8% YoY in Q2FY25 on the back of higher bookings and new product launches. Analysts like Motilal Oswal Financial Services expect this realty company to deliver strong growth, improvement in cash flows, and higher margins, driven by a strong pipeline and healthy realisations.

    Dixon Technologies also shows up in the screener as Forecaster expects its revenue and EPS to grow by 102.5% YoY and 111.4% YoY, respectively, in Q3FY25. Analysts at Sharekhan expect this high-flying consumer electronics stock’s revenue and profitability to improve, led by growth momentum in the mobile & EMS division, and a ramp up in the laptop segment. 

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    05 Dec 2024
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - December 05, 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - December 05, 2024

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    1. Aadhar Housing Finance:

    ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this housing finance company with a target price of Rs 550. This indicates a potential upside of 24.8%. Analysts Renish Bhuva, Chintan Shah, and Palak Bhatt highlight the company’s strong focus on geographical diversification. Unlike many mortgage players, where over 30% of assets under management (AUM) come from a single state, Aadhar Housing Finance (AHF) stands out with no single state contributing more than 15% of its AUM.

    The company’s AUM stands at Rs 22,800 crore as of September 2024 which is among the highest in its listed peer group. AHF’s management reported minimal borrowings from the National Housing Bank (NHB) in H1FY25 but expects significant borrowing in H2FY25, which is likely to keep the cost of funds (CoF) in the range of 8.1-8.2%.  

    Bhuva, Shah, and Bhatt note that AHF strategically targets the salaried segment beyond tier-2 cities, focusing on low-ticket loans under Rs 15 lakh. Aadhar’s early entry into underserved markets and focus on the formal salaried segment has helped its lending business. They expect AUM to grow at a CAGR of 20.8%, reaching Rs 31,046.2 crore by FY26.

    2. The Ramco Cements:

    ICICI Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this cement & cement products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,130, indicating an upside of 8.6%. The Ramco Cements is primarily based in South India, with around 84% of its cement capacity located in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, while the remainder is in the East. The company added 4.6 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of capacity between FY23 and H1FY25, bringing its total capacity to 24 MTPA, with plans to expand to 30 MTPA by FY26.

    The company’s volume growth declined by 0.6% YoY in H1FY25, impacted by elections, monsoon, an extended heatwave, and pressure on cement prices. However, analysts Vijay Goel and Ankit Shah expect a recovery in sales volumes in H2, driven by capacity additions and stronger demand in key markets such as Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh. They believe that Ramco’s focus on expanding capacities at existing locations will support its market share growth.

    The company has monetised Rs 376 crore of non-core assets during September-October 2024, aiding debt reduction and to support Rs 1,200 crore capex planned for FY25. Goel and Shah project a 12% revenue CAGR and a 64% net profit CAGR over FY25-27.

    3. Lloyds Metals and Energy:

    Anand Rathi initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this mining firm with a target price of Rs 1,260, indicating an upside of 17.8%. Lloyds, the only iron ore miner in Maharashtra, holds around 157 million tonnes of extractable iron ore. Analysts Parthiv Jhonsa and Prakhar Khajanchi note that the company’s Surjagarh mine, awarded through an allocation route, exempts it from paying a premium to the government, making it one of the most cost-competitive miners in India.

    Lloyds Metals and Energy is establishing integrated steel facilities in Ghughus and Konsari, set to begin operations between FY27-29. The company is also constructing a 10-million-tonne, 85km slurry pipeline between Hedri (pumping station) and the Konsari plant. This pipeline is expected to deliver benefits from FY26 and will save around Rs 600 crore annually when fully utilised.

    In Q2FY25, Lloyds’ revenue grew by 25% YoY to Rs 1,364.4 crore, surpassing Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 12.5%. However, its EBITDA margin declined by 130 bps to 24.9%, but analysts remain positive about margin growth. Jhonsa and Khajanchi said, “The company’s strong presence in Maharashtra and the development of integrated steel plants are expected to improve margins. Additionally, the construction of a slurry pipeline is likely to further drive up the EBITDA margin.”

    4. Hindustan Unilever:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this personal products company with a target price of Rs 3,100, indicating an upside potential of 25.8%. In Q2FY25, the company reported a revenue growth of 2.1% YoY to Rs 16,145 crore, driven by the home care and beauty & wellbeing segments.

    Despite a muted quarter for FMCG overall, analysts Naveen Trivedi and Tanu Jindal highlight that the company has a pipeline of innovative products in skin care and home care, aimed at capturing additional market share in the premium segment. The company is focusing on offering more premium products in beauty & wellbeing (B&W) and foods & refreshments (F&R) segments. HUL has a vast distribution network of 9 million outlets. Its Shikhar app services 1.4 million outlets, handling 50% of traditional trade demand. 

    The analysts said, “The company remains focused on volume-led growth, complemented by low single-digit price hikes to offset raw material pressures.” HUL has achieved 30% ecommerce CAGR over the past three years.

    Trivedi and Jindal note that the company aims for strong turnover growth by increasing volume, offering premium products, and changing its portfolio in B&W and F&R. They expect a CAGR of 7% in sales, 8% in EBITDA, and 9% in net profit over FY25-27.

    5. Anant Raj:

    Emkay initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this realty company with a target price of Rs 925, indicating an upside potential of 28.1%. In Q2FY25, the company reported a net profit growth of 75.7% YoY to Rs 105.6 crore and revenue rose 54.3% to Rs 512.9 crore.

    Analysts Ashwani Sharma, Harsh Pathak and Chinmay Kabra note that the company owns 220 acres of land, with approximately 120 acres of land yet to be developed. Also, the company has around 101 acres of land bank in Delhi which has a development potential of around 12 million square feet (msf), supporting its ability to launch new projects. The company plans to increase its data center and cloud capacity to 307 megawatts (MW) in the next 4-5 years, up from the current 6 MW. 

    Sharma, Pathak and Kabra expect multifold growth in this segment, driven by digital adoption, 5G expansion, better optic fiber networks, and government efforts on data protection. They project residential sales to grow at a CAGR of 18%, reaching Rs 4,600 crore. This, they say, will drive collections to grow at a CAGR of 39%, reaching Rs 2,630 crore between FY25-27, leading to a strong cash flow for the company.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    03 Dec 2024

    Chart of the Week: Financial firms grow in Q2FY25, while the cement sector struggles

    By Aditi Priya

    The RBI's monetary policy review meeting, scheduled for December 4-6, comes at a time when markets have turned volatile, with foreign fund outflows, sticky food inflation, and global uncertainty. India's GDP growth number for Q2FY25 also landed with a thud, slowing to 5.4% in Q2FY25, far below estimates and the lowest in two years.

    Gaura Sen, chief economist at IDFC Bank, lowered India’s overall FY25 GDP growth forecast to 6.3% from 6.6%. She noted that much of the weakness in the first half has come from, “a slowdown in urban demand and decline in government capital expenditure.” Brokerages like Nomura and ICICI Securities also lowered their FY25 GDP growth estimates. While Nomura and HSBC expect a rate cut in December from the RBI, consensus still remains that RBI might start rate cuts only in February 2025.  

    Indian Inc’s results season was pretty muted, with many companies missing earnings expectations. This triggered an equity selloff. JM Financial analyzed 227 companies under its coverage and found that 45% missed earnings estimates, highlighting a challenging quarter.

    In this week's Chart of the Week, we explore the Trendlyne's Results Dashboard to analyze which industries excelled and which ones underperformed.

    Exchanges & capital markets firms continue to outperform in Q2FY25

    India’s capital markets have steadily grown in recent years, with the trend continuing in the last quarter. Despite the recent volatility, markets hit new highs, with Nifty50 near its all-time high of 26,179 after rising 20.5% over the past year. As per Trendlyne's Results Dashboard, the exchange industry reported a remarkable 94.8% YoY revenue growth in Q2FY25, with operating profit margins soaring 71.3% in the same period due to increased activity in the equity derivatives segment and higher daily premium turnover. 

    BSE posted a threefold jump in net profit, reaching Rs 346.8 crore for the September quarter. The average daily premium turnover in the equity derivatives segment soared to Rs 8,203 crore in Q2FY25, compared to Rs 768 crore in the same quarter last year. Similarly, MCX India's revenue jumped 68.8% YoY, rising to Rs 310.8 crore.

    The capital markets industry saw overall revenue and operating profit margin growth of 44.7% and 12% respectively, in Q2. Firms like Motilal Oswal Financial Services, ICICI Securities and Angel One contributed to this surge.

    Consumer electronics see growth, realty sector shows mixed performance

    The consumer electronics industry saw average revenue growth of 61.3% YoY, while net profit jumped 170.7%. Once considered a luxury, room air-conditioners (AC) have become popular as summers have become hotter. AC manufacturers like Voltas and Blue Star reported net profit growth of 265.3% and 36.1% respectively in Q2FY25, driven by high demand. The operating profit margin for Voltas surged by nearly 102% and by 1.1% for Blue Star as it is significantly increasing its production and capacity to prepare better for the upcoming summer.

    Voltas' unitary cooling products segment, which includes split and window AC, maintained strong growth momentum. The segment outperformed the market with a 56% surge in volumes. The company retained its leadership position in the AC segment, achieving a 21% market share as of September 2024. The AC segment revenue rose by an impressive 45% to Rs 5,384 crores, compared to Rs 3,723 crores in the same period last year. 

    Another consumer electronics front-runner, Dixon Technologies posted better-than-expected Q2FY25 results. This was led by a 235% YoY revenue increase in the mobile segment. Acquisition of Ismartu in August 2024, boosted mobile production and volumes from brands like Itel, Infinix, and Tecno. The company’s net profit jumped by nearly 263% to Rs 390 crore in Q2 from Rs 107.3 crore last year. Operating profit margin also increased marginally. The company’s booming mobile phone manufacturing segment contributed 73% to the operating profit and 82% to the total revenue.

    Meanwhile, the realty industry had a mixed performance in Q2FY25, with both winners and losers. Average revenue growth stood at 26.3%, with operating profit margins rising by 68.3%. Companies like Godrej Properties, Sobha, and DLF played a key role, growing due to new project launches and higher retail demand in Q2. However, the sector's net profit fell by 17.7% in the September quarter. Prestige Estates reported a 77.4% drop due to a Rs 106 crore deferred tax impact, mainly from tax code changes, including the removal of indexation benefits on capital gains.

    Gems & jewellery industry report strong growth, while movies & entertainment faces a decline

    The gems & jewellery industry witnessed a 54.8% revenue growth and 76% operating profit margin growth, on average. In the spotlight was industry leader Titan, which reported a 15.8% increase in revenue, but its net profit dropped by 23% due to a reduction in customs duty. The customs duty cut led to lower gold prices, boosting jewellery sales. However, increased costs and reduced margins affected net earnings. The company saw its standalone jewellery business revenue grow 26% to Rs 10,763 crore compared to the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, Kalyan Jewellers saw a nearly 37.6% surge in revenue, though its operating profit margin fell by around 24% due to the fluctuating gold prices. Senco Gold also contributed to the overall industry growth with positive revenue, net profit and operating margin growth in Q2FY25. 

    The movies and entertainment industry experienced a 13.4% drop in revenue. India’s largest multiplex chain, PVR Inox, reported its third consecutive quarterly loss as the growing popularity of streaming services kept audiences at home, impacting box-office collections and food and beverage sales. 

    Movie theaters have been struggling with low footfalls in recent quarters as higher inflation has led consumers to cut back on discretionary spending. In response, multiplexes have introduced lower-priced weekday passes and reduced popcorn prices to attract customers.

    Cement industry and roads & highways witness revenue moderation in Q2FY25

    Both cement and roads & highways industries reported a decline in revenue growth YoY in Q2. The cement industry’s average revenue and net profit growth declined by 1.4% and 75.4%, respectively in Q2. This was due to weak demand during the monsoon season. UltraTech Cement, the market leader, saw its first quarterly revenue drop in four years, with a 2% and 19% decline in revenue and operating profit margin, respectively. Grasim Industries also saw a 66.5% decline in net profit and a 22.3% reduction in its operating profit margin.

    Similarly, the roads and highways industry's average revenue declined by 11.7% during Q2, but operating profit margins edged up by 0.8%. IRB Infrastructure reported a 6% decline in revenue growth for the quarter, while operating profit margins increased by 6%. Virendra Mhaiskar, Chairman and MD of IRB Infrastructure said, “We anticipate better performance in the upcoming quarters, driven by the end of the monsoon season, the onset of the festive season, and accelerated progress in under-construction projects."

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    The Baseline
    29 Nov 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - November 29, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - November 29, 2024

    1. NBCC (India):

    This construction and engineering company rose over 3.2% on Thursday after signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Housing & Urban Development Corp (HUDCO) to develop a 10-acre institutional plot in Noida Sector 62. The project, estimated at Rs 600 crore, will have NBCC as the project management consultant.

    NBCC has risen by 6.3% over the month, driven by multiple order wins during November worth more than Rs 1,500 crore (excluding the MoU with HUDCO). These include work orders worth Rs 428 crore from the ST & SC Development Department, Government of Odisha, to upgrade primary school hostels and schools across various locations in the state.

    Other orders this month include project management consultancy services for Rajasthan State Industrial Development and Investment Corp and building construction for the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) across five locations, among others. 

    During Q2FY25, NBCC reported a 19.8% YoY increase in revenue to Rs 2,458.7 crore, driven by improvements in the PMC (project management consultancy), real estate, and EPC (engineering procurement and construction) segments. Net profit increased 53.4% YoY to Rs 122.1 crore during the quarter, (the company incurred an exceptional expense of Rs 65.4 crore in Q2FY24). 

    The company’s current order book stands at Rs 84,400 crore. During the first half of the year, NBCC secured Rs 28,100 crore worth of orders, up 19.6% YoY. With a strong order pipeline in place, the focus now falls on the execution of projects. Speaking on this, Kellambally Mahadevaswamy, CMD of the company said, “This is one of the highest ever business secured in six months. We are targeting to take it up to Rs 1 lakh crore at the end of this financial year”.

    Trendlyne classifies NBCC (India) as an Expensive Performer. The company is trading in the Strong Sell Zone, indicating that it is currently trading above its historical PE.

    2. LTIMindtree:

    This IT software firm has risen by 4.1% in the past week, following two developments. The company entered a partnership with Microsoft to jointly invest in AI-powered solutions and create go-to-market strategies, aimed at helping clients accelerate AI adoption. Additionally, Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) increased its stake in LTIMindtree (LTIM) from 5% to 7% between March 20 and November 19, 2024, now holding shares worth approximately Rs 12,630 crore.

    LTIM reported a 10.3% QoQ growth in net profit, reaching Rs 1,251 crore in Q2FY25, surpassing Trendlyne Forecaster’s estimates by 1.8%. Revenue also rose 3.9% to Rs 9,731.8 crore, driven by growth in the banking, financial services & insurance (BFSI) and technology, media & communications segments. The EBIT margin improved modestly by 50 bps QoQ to 15.5%. The company features in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue every quarter for the past two quarters. 

    The company secured $1.3 billion in deal wins in Q2, including a $200 million multi-year deal in the manufacturing segment. The company has a strong deal pipeline, with a total contract value (TCV) of $5 billion. Over the past 18 months, LTIM has closed 45+ large deals worth $2 billion, with a balanced portfolio: 30% in banking, financial services & insurance (BFSI), 33% in manufacturing, and 31% in communications. 

    However, the management expects Q3 to face seasonal headwinds and furloughs (temporary employee absences), which could moderate its momentum to some extent. Chief Financial Officer Vipul Chandra said, “We expect a 200 bps margin impact from wage hikes and furloughs in Q3. Our target EBIT margin is 17-18%, but achieving this will depend on the industry returning to double-digit growth.” Analysts believe that increased spending by BFSI clients on transformation projects will drive growth, despite margin pressures.

    LTIM plans to expand its scaled verticals, such as BFSI and Technology, and accelerate overall growth. The management sees AI as its key focus and expects Gen AI to drive the next wave of productivity. It has recently established an AI innovation center in Bengaluru, in partnership with IBM, to accelerate AI adoption for clients.

    Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this stock with a target price of Rs 7,400, indicating a potential upside of 19.9%. The brokerage is confident in the company's expertise in data engineering and ERP modernization, positioning it well to benefit from pre-GenAI investments. It expects a net profit CAGR of 19.2% over FY25-27. However, the firm is in the PE Sell Zone, currently trading above its historical PE.

    3. Tips Music:

    Thismedia and entertainment company gained 3% on November 25 after announcing a direct strategicpartnership with TikTok, the short-form video platform owned by ByteDance. The deal will promote Tips music library globally, excluding India and China.

    The agreement between Tips Music and TikTok aims to meet the increasing global demand for Indian music, particularly among non-resident Indians (NRIs) and expatriates. Through this agreement, TikTok users will have access to over 31,000 songs from Tips Music's library, featuring genres from Bollywood classics to regional language hits.

    Kumar Taurani, Managing Director of TIPS Musicsaid, “This direct strategic partnership with ByteDance marks an important step in expanding the global footprint and engagement of TIPS Music. The TikTok platform has a massive audience base and this deal improves the discovery of our music.”

    InQ2FY25, the company reported a net profit growth of 21.5% YoY to Rs 48.2 crore, while revenue surged 33.7% YoY to Rs 86.2 crore. This growth is attributed to the increasing contribution from digital platforms such as YouTube, Spotify, Saavn, Amazon Music, and Apple Music. Managementexpects overall revenue and net profit to grow by 30% for FY25 and plans to increase market share from the current 8-9% to 10-11% within the next 3-4 years.

    Yes Securities hasinitiated a ‘Buy’ rating on Tips Music, with a target price of Rs 1,050. The brokerage believes that favourable industry trends, a strong content acquisition strategy and improved licensing laws will benefit the company in the medium term. They expect revenue and EPS to grow at a CAGR of 38% each over FY25-27, driven by a mix of growth in advertising revenues and premium subscriptions.

    4. L&T Finance:

    ThisNBFC surged 3.4% over the past week as itannounced a multi-year partnership with Amazon Finance India, a lending service provider to offer loan products through Amazon’s app and website. This will help L&T Finance (LTF) diversify its loan book as it extends loans to Amazon’s merchants as well as customers.

    InQ2FY25, the company reported revenue growth of 15.6% YoY at Rs 4,024 crore, with net profit rising 16.9% YoY to Rs 696 crore. Both revenue and net profit beat Forecaster estimates marginally. As disbursements in the retail segment increased 12% YoY, assets under management (AUM) grew 28% YoY to Rs 88,975 crore. Credit costs stayed almost flat YoY which led to 32 bps YoY growth in net interest margins.

    During itsinvestor day on November 25, LTF provided insights into its project Cyclops, which is an AI-based underwriting engine still in its beta phase. Managing Director and CEO, Sudipta Roy, says, “Cyclops will help the company transition from a wholesale dominant franchise to a retail-focused NBFC.” Management at LTF highlighted that they introduced the Cyclops project to the two-wheeler business in June ‘24.

    Before Cyclops, LTF was able to handle 8,000 requests per day, but now it can handle over 2 lakh requests per day. Customer mix has also improved and shifted towards the ones that have the least number of delinquencies (failed payments by borrowers) due to improved borrower segmentation.

    ICICI Securitiesmaintains a ‘Buy’ rating on L&T Finance as they expect these new initiatives to improve operational efficiency. LTF also plans to introduce an automated risk management system by September 2026, which will be able to generate early warning signals resulting in a further decline in credit costs. With AUM growth of 20-25% on a sustained basis, the company aims to double its loan book in the next 3-4 years.

    5. Sobha:

    This realty company has gained over 10% in the past week after it posted its Q2FY25 result on 15th November. Its net profit rose 74.6% YoY to Rs 26.1 crore, while its revenue increased by 24.8% YoY on the back of a 43.7% rise in real estate segment revenue. The company beat the Trendlyne Forecaster estimates for revenue by 15.5%. However, it missed the net profit estimate by 37.7% as its EBITDA margin contracted by 192bps YoY to 9%. It appears in a screener of stocks which have consistently given high returns over five years in Nifty500.

    Q2FY25 was a mixed quarter for the company, with a 32% YoY decline in pre-sales, primarily due to lower demand for recent launches in the first half of the year. The company’s contract manufacturing segment also saw a 22.9% YoY revenue decline. However, completions were up by 28% YoY to around 0.9msf, supporting strong revenue growth. The company’s residential segment has been a growth driver for the company with its collections rising by 8.6% YoY to Rs 2,614 crore due to new launches. Also, the company's extensive land bank across multiple cities has further strengthened its market position.

    Analysts note that the company has resolved its debt issues through better operating cash flow and successful completion of its Rs 2,000 crore rights issue, positioning it for aggressive growth. They also mention that the promoter is gradually increasing their stake, and Sobha is expanding its portfolio by acquiring land and forming more joint ventures.

    Jagadish Nangineni, managing director of the company, on the EBITDA margins said, “The contracts and manufacturing can give much better margin once we choose the right set of contractual projects or we choose to deemphasize on some of kind of contracts that we are currently undertaking like civil in nature”. He adds that, “The revenue yet to be recognized from the sales that have been done till date, stands at about Rs 14,500 crore and the blended margin for this unrecognized revenue is over 33% and which would be recognized in the next 4 to 5 years.” On FY25 guidance he added, “Our previous guidance of Rs 8,500 crore in pre-sales depends on the timing of our expected launches in the next 5 months. We're hopeful that things will align, but a clearer picture will emerge in the next 2 months as we roll out new products.” 

    Geojit BNP Paribas has retained an ‘Accumulate’ rating on Sobha with a target price of Rs 1,802. The brokerage expects the company to do well in H2FY25 on the back of planned launches of ~5.5msf in the latter half, from its massive pipeline of ~19.3msf. However, it also points out that as a premium player in the sector, any moderation in real estate demand is a key risk along with any delay in obtaining approvals.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    29 Nov 2024
    The debate over cutting interest rates | Screener: Stocks outperforming a bearish market

    The debate over cutting interest rates | Screener: Stocks outperforming a bearish market

    By Swapnil Karkare

    One can argue that the Reserve Bank of India works like a game of dominoes. The bank makes one move, and it sets off a whole series of cascading events.

    There is a Tom & Jerry cartoon that shows RBI's dilemma (my mother used to claim that cartoons were useless, but I have now proven that this is not true). In the cartoon, Jerry tries to take a piece of cheese. A string tied to the cheese pulls an alarm clock, setting off a series of events which ends up with a very heavy box hitting Tom.

    In its role as the central bank, RBI is constantly trying to avoid moves that will result in a heavy hit on the Indian economy. But right now, the economy is in a difficult mood. It's dealing with high inflation, a weakening rupee, and capital outflows.

    What can the RBI do? On the one hand, prices are rising and the consumer price index (CPI) has crossed the 6% mark – the upper limit of the target inflation range. On the other hand, a slowing economy is hurting businesses. 

    Should RBI hold interest rates at the current level to bring inflation down, or should it cut rates to boost economic growth? The government is on the side of lower interest rates. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has pushed for lower rates to drive GDP growth, and Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has made similar remarks. This has got many hoping that the RBI may cut rates at its next meet.

    The central bank however, makes up its own mind. And it sees inflation as a dangerous creature, which if let loose with low interest rates, can create havoc. So it will probably hold rates steady in its December monetary policy meeting, despite the government's displeasure.

    A screenshot of a social media post

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    In this week's Analyticks,

    Push and pull: The debate over interest rates cuts as the Indian economy slows

    Screener: Rising stocks recovering towards year highs, and outperforming their sectors

    Inflation: No immediate relief in sight

    RBI is a cautious central bank, unlikely to cut rates without clear signals. And the big picture is unfriendly right now, because of persistent inflation coming from rising food prices. These increases are partly due to unseasonal rains, which destroyed crops like onions and tomatoes, and strained already fragile supply chains. In October, vegetable prices surged by 42% year-on-year (YoY), driving up the CPI to a 14-month high of 6.2% YoY. 

    Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, has suggested that the RBI can ignore food inflation when setting rates. However, food makes up nearly half of household expenditure for many Indians. The central bank cannot just ignore the effect of rising food prices on overall demand. 

    Despite hopes that food inflation will ease over the next few months as supply conditions improve – thanks to higher mandi arrivals, adequate reservoir levels, and better rabi sowing, the outlook right now is unclear. The State Bank of India (SBI) estimates that consumer inflation will stay higher than the RBI's projection (4.8-4.9% vs. 4.5%) till the end of FY25. This dampens hopes for a rate cut even by February, according to SBI.

    Near-term risks: A stronger dollar, and the China factor

    Another complicating factor is the stronger US dollar. While a strong dollar has made Indian exports more competitive, India is now importing inflation, particularly in crude oil and other commodities. Being a net importer of goods, imported inflation is hitting India hard. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and UBS expect the dollar to stay strong under a Trump administration, which could keep pushing up the cost of imports.




    Then there is China. China is for now, still grappling with deflation, low demand and falling fiscal revenues despite several rounds of stimulus. Lower demand has kept commodity and crude oil prices low.

    The CME Group points out that if China can reverse its economic slowdown, we could see higher commodity prices worldwide, so the central bank is keeping an eye on the Chinese recovery. 

    Growth vs. Inflation: Walking a tightrope

    Remember last month’s newsletter on India’s slowdown? We discussed how lower government spending dragged the economy down. However, post-elections, it has picked up compared to the previous year. The jump in government spending is expected to help the economy recover. 

    Motilal Oswal expects a better second half for businesses, driven by higher government expenditure, a robust kharif crop, and strong rural demand. A rate cut may not be needed urgently if these factors kickstart the recovery.

    But there are still factors that can drive prices up, from unseasonal rainfall and supply chain issues to global upheaval that hits oil and commodity prices. Governor Das has warned that a rate cut right now would be "very premature" and "risky". 

    RBI is unlikely to budge on rate cuts, for now

    With high inflation and upward price pressures expected to persist for at least a month, the RBI monetary policy committee is likely to hold rates. Government officials and ministers might not be thrilled with this decision, but it's a common scenario worldwide. Governments often push central banks to cut rates, and rarely call for hikes.

    If the economic conditions improve — possibly by February or April 2025, when the MPC meets again —we believe the RBI will be ready to cut rates. Till then, the central bank is likely to keep both the government and investors in a sulk.


    Screener: Rising stocks recovering towards year highs, and outperforming their sectors

    General Industrials & IT stocks rise the most in the past month

    In the current bearish market environment where the Nifty 50 is trading at a discount of 7.9% from its 52-week high of 26,277.6, we look at stocks that have risen the most over the past month, outperforming their sectors and trading near their year highs. This screener shows rising stocks over the past month trading near their year highs which are also outperforming their sectors.

    The screener contains stocks from the banking & finance, pharmaceuticals & biotechnology, software & services, general industrials, and diversified consumer services sectors. Notable stocks in the screener are Kirloskar Brothers, Vijaya Diagnostic Centre, Jyoti CNC Automation, KFIN Technologies, Gillette India, Mastek, eClerx Services, and CCL Products India.

    Kirloskar Brothers has risen the most, by 36.9% over the past month, helping it to outperform the general industrials sector by 33.4 percentage points. This has helped the stock to recover towards its 52-week high of Rs 2,684 per share and it is currently trading at a discount of 17%. The industrial machinery company (which manufactures engineered, industrial, agriculture and domestic pumps, valves, and hydro turbines) has been on the rise since reporting its Q2FY25 results on October 29 where its revenue and net profit grew by 14.7% YoY to Rs 1,050.1 crore and 89.9% YoY to Rs 95.1 crore, respectively. Its revenue increased on the back of Rs 1,162 crore worth of new orders during the quarter, while its net profit surged, led by higher volumes, cost control initiatives undertaken by the company, and a reduction in raw material prices.

    Vijaya Diagnostic Centre comes in next after rising by 27.9% over the past month, outperforming the diversified consumer services sector by 28.6 percentage points. This has helped the stock to recover towards its 52-week high of Rs 1,250 per share and is currently trading at a discount of 7.4% from its year-high. This healthcare services company’s price rose on the back of its revenue and net profit growing by 28.7% YoY to Rs 187.5 crore and 25.9% YoY to Rs 41.9 crore, respectively, in Q2FY25. Its revenue increased on the back of an improvement in patient footfall and higher test samples. 

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    28 Nov 2024
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - November 28, 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - November 28, 2024

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Bharti Airtel:

    Geojit BNP Paribas reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this telecom services provider with a target price of Rs 1,711, indicating an upside of 9.7%. The company reported a net profit growth of 168% YoY to Rs 3,593.2 crore in Q2FY25. Revenue increased by 11.6% YoY to Rs 41,728 crore, helped by improvements in the Indian mobile services, Airtel business, and home services segments. 

    The analyst highlights that average revenue per user (ARPU) of the company has increased to Rs 233 from Rs 203 a year earlier, supported by recent tariff hikes. Airtel's customer base grew 4.3% YoY to 563 million. The company installed 5,000 additional towers and 15,200 mobile broadband stations, enhancing connectivity. The capital expenditure for the quarter stands at Rs 7,675 crore, with Rs 6,260 crore incurred in India and Rs 1,415 crore in Africa.

    Geojit expects a CAGR of 13.4% in sales, 14.8% in EBITDA, and 40.7% in net profit over FY25-26.

    2. Sansera Engineering:

    ICICI Direct retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this auto parts & equipment company, setting a target price of Rs 2,000, indicating an upside potential of 29.3%. The company reported a net profit growth of 7.8% YoY to Rs 50.7 crore in Q2FY25, while revenue rose 10.6% YoY to Rs 767.2 crore during the quarter.

    Analysts Shashank Kanodia, Manisha Kesari and Bhavish Doshi highlight the company’s strong order book which stands at Rs 2,010 crore as of Q2FY25 (vs Rs 1,930 crore in Q2FY24), with 51% from higher-margin segments like non-auto and auto tech agnostic parts. Around 60% of orders are from international markets. Sansera is focusing on diversifying its revenue mix, aiming to lower automotive internal combustion engine dependency from 73% to 60% and improve tech agnostic and non-auto sectors to 20% each. The management aims to grow the non-auto segment with a CAGR of 35-40%.

    Kanodia, Kesari, and Doshi expect a CAGR of 17% in revenue, 22.3% in EBITDA, and 36.4% in net profit for the period FY25-27, with revenue anticipated to reach around Rs 4,500 crore by FY27.

    3. Sky Gold:

    Edelweiss maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this gems & jewellery manufacturer with a target price of Rs 4,500, indicating an upside potential of 16.9%. In Q2FY25, the company reported a net profit growth of 4X YoY to Rs 36.7 crore. Its revenue rose 98.7% YoY to Rs 788.6 crore, due to the recent duty cut which led to a surge in footfalls during the quarter.

    Analyst Palash Kawale highlights that strong festive demand and recent acquisitions supported overall volume growth of 38% YoY to 345 kg/month this quarter. Management plans to increase volumes through new clients and higher sales to existing customers. Exports reached Rs 69 crore in Q2FY25 from Rs 14 crore in Q2FY24, contributing 9%, and are expected to reach 10% by year-end. Margin gains from value-added products, along with the sale of mutual fund holdings and reinvestment of the proceeds into fixed deposits, drove profitability.

    Commenting on the results, Kawale said, “Given its record of overachieving its targets in the past combined with management’s execution capabilities, we believe that Sky Gold can be a long-term growth story.” The analyst expects revenue, EBITDA, and net profit to grow by 53%, 61%, and 73%, respectively over FY25-27.

    4. CESC:

    Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this electric utilities company with a target price of Rs 217, indicating an upside of 24.5%. CESC reported a net profit growth of 1.4% YoY to Rs 353 crore in Q2FY25, driven by strong performances in Haldia and Dhariwal. Dhariwal Infrastructure and Haldia Energy’s profits increased by 19% and 12%, respectively, reaching Rs 81 crore and Rs 74 crore helped by higher power generation. However, the growth was partially offset by the standalone business due to higher interest expenses. The company’s revenue rose by 2% to Rs. 4,819 crore.

    CESC plans to commission 1.5 GW of solar and 1.7 GW of wind capacity by FY29, with transmission connectivity of both expected to be granted in Q3FY25. Currently, 3.2 GW of wind projects are in engineering, procurement & construction (EPC) mode with Inox Wind, Suzlon, and Ecoren. Additionally, CESC Projects, a subsidiary of CESC, plans to set up a 10,500 TPA Green Hydrogen facility within the next three years.

    The company implemented a 5.7% tariff hike starting in June to recover fuel and power purchase adjustment costs. The analysts say, "The 5.7% tariff hike, along with renewable energy investments and the turnaround of the distribution business, will boost earnings." They expect the company’s revenue and net profit to grow by 7.5% and 11.5%, respectively, over FY25-27.

    5. Lemon Tree Hotels:

    IDBI Capital maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this hotels company with a target price of Rs 145. This indicates a potential upside of 11.6%. Lemon Tree Hotels’ (LTH) management highlights that Aurika Mumbai targets over 60% occupancy in Q3, up from 50% in Q2, by focusing on high-rate international crew business, which offers higher average rates and more predictable demand.

    Analysts Archana Gude and Sarthak Awasthi note, “We remain positive on LTH within the mid-scale hotels segment due to its operational scale and the opening of Aurika, Mumbai, which will further boost earnings." They believe the management's strong outlook on inventory expansion and debt repayment is encouraging despite margin challenges in FY25 due to cost escalations.

    In Q2FY25, the company reported a revenue growth of 21% YoY to Rs 284.4 crore, beating Trendlyne Forecaster estimates by 1.6%. However, net profit fell 27% due to lower available rooms and higher expenses from ongoing renovations. 

    The management is upbeat about growth in H2FY25, with October-November showing 15% revenue and 20% EBITDA growth YoY, driven by increasing wedding and banquet demand, particularly from destination weddings and social events. They expect renovation spending in FY25 to be Rs 100-110 crore, with 60% focused on high-value properties like Delhi and Mumbai.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    26 Nov 2024
    Chart of the Week: IT and banking sectors outperform Nifty, while FMCG and auto struggle

    Chart of the Week: IT and banking sectors outperform Nifty, while FMCG and auto struggle

    By Aditi Priya

    Over the past quarter, the Indian market has turned volatile, as both global and domestic pressures pile up. As the dollar strengthened and US elections resulted in a Trump win, foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers over the past quarter, with total net sales amounting to Rs 67,601 crore in equity. India’s Q2FY25 GDP growth is also expected to show a slight slowdown. 

    According to rating agency ICRA, the GDP growth rate is expected to dip marginally to 6.5%, compared to 6.7% in the previous quarter. However, the RBI has maintained its FY25 GDP growth forecast at 7.2%. It has adjusted the second-half estimate to 7.4%, despite a weaker first quarter and has revised the second-quarter forecast to 7% (down from 7.2%). Heavy rainfall and weaker corporate profits have contributed to this slowdown. India's retail inflation also increased to 6.2% in October, up from 5.5% in the previous month, primarily driven by higher food prices, surpassing RBI’s upper tolerance level of 6%. Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda described the pace of consumer price inflation as shocking. He noted, “While inflation for cereals and pulses may ease gradually, vegetables will take longer to stabilize. Core inflation also shows an upward trend, particularly in personal care products, as rising input costs are passed on to consumers.” This, he said, makes a rate cut in December unlikely.

    While overall market sentiment has been negative, several sectors have outperformed the Nifty50 index in the past quarter. Key sectoral indices like IT, financial services, banking, services and realty have been resilient, delivering strong returns amid tough conditions. On the other hand, sectors such as metal, infra, auto, FMCG, energy and oil &  gas have struggled, underperforming the broader market due to weaker consumer demand, as well as global uncertainty and inflationary pressure.

    In this week’s Chart of the Week, we take a look at Trendlyne’s Indices Dashboard to identify the sectors that have outperformed and underperformed the flagship Nifty50 over the past quarter.

    IT sector rebounds and emerges as the top-performing sector over the past quarter

    The IT sectoral index Nifty IT has emerged as the best-performing sector, posting a 7.3% gain over the past quarter. Average revenue rose by 6.6% YoY in Q2FY25, driven by strong demand for emerging technologies such as Generative AI, machine learning, and cloud transformation. Tech Mahindra saw YoY net profit jump in triple digits, with a jump of 132.8%. 

    Its growth was fueled by positive sequential growth across all verticals, except manufacturing and healthcare. IT companies got a boost due to interest rate cuts in the US and EU. Salil Parekh, CEO of Infosys, notes, “Historically when interest rates are cut and inflation is better controlled in Western Europe and the US, spending on large technology programs tends to rise.”

    The financial services and banking sector indices also outperformed Nifty50, rising 3.5% and 2.5%, respectively, over the past quarter. Banks saw higher YoY growth in deposits in Q2FY25 compared to Q1FY25, driven by increased efforts to attract deposits through higher rates and innovative schemes. Punjab National Bank, the second-largest public sector bank, recorded a 10.9% YoY growth in domestic deposits, up from 8.1% in Q1FY25.

    The services sector index has risen 2.1% over the past quarter, with Zomato’s net profit increasing by 33.7% YoY for Q2FY25. The telecom services company Bharti Airtel saw a massive increase in the net profit to Rs 2,517.6 in Q2FY25 from a loss of Rs 293 crore in Q2 last year.

    The Nifty Realty Index has also outperformed Nifty50, posting a return of 1.1% over the past quarter. The festive season typically sees an increase in consumer and business activity boosted by new project launches. Developers like Oberoi Realty reported strong net profit growth. It reported a profit of Rs 463.6 crore in Q2FY25, compared to a net profit of Rs 194.4 crore in the same quarter last year.

    Oil & Gas, FMCG and Infrastructure are top losers over the past quarter

    The Nifty Oil & Gas index has significantly underperformed Nifty50, falling 16.9% over the past quarter. This decline is primarily due to the poor performance of oil marketing companies (OMCs) such as Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum, which reported a substantial drop in net profit (between 70-99%) during Q2FY25. The Q2 profit came in well below expectations, as weaker oil refining margins and larger-than-expected inventory losses pushed core profit before tax (PBT) into the negative territory.

    The Nifty FMCG index saw a 8.8% decline over the past quarter. Rising costs and inflation impacted FMCG companies’ topline and bottom line. To counter rising raw material costs, many companies took steps to control expenses, which slightly helped reduce the impact on their profits. ITC stood out as one of the few exceptions, posting a 15.8% increase in revenue in Q2FY25, beating its Forecaster estimate. Other companies such as Colgate-Palmolive, Britannia, Nestlé, and Dabur fell short of their revenue estimates.

    The Nifty Auto index has fallen 9.4% over the past quarter. This was mainly due to the passenger vehicle segment seeing a 1.8% drop in Q2FY25 compared to the same period last year, likely due to demand saturation in urban markets and sales disruptions caused by the extended monsoon. Commercial vehicles also recorded an 11% decline in Q2FY25 compared to the previous year, which was likely driven by a slowdown in industrial and construction activity.

    The Nifty Infrastructure index has declined by 6.6% over the past quarter. UltraTech Cementsaw a decline of 33.9% YoY in the net profit in Q2FY25. The cement and construction company, Larsen & Toubro’s net profit also fell 26.5% in Q2. Additionally, the government has spent only Rs 3.1 lakh crore on capex by August 2024, or 27% of its annual target. This leaves a 73% shortfall, compared to 37.4% spent in the same period last year.

    The Nifty Metal index has fallen by 4% over the past quarter, with 9 out of its 15 constituents, including Tata Steel, Hindustan Zinc, Hindalco Industries, Hindustan Copper, and Jindal Steel, falling during this period

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    The Baseline
    26 Nov 2024
    Which stocks did superstar investors buy in Q2FY25?

    Which stocks did superstar investors buy in Q2FY25?

    By Melissa Koshy

    Investors closely follow superstar investors like RARE Enterprises, Ashish Kacholia, Sunil Singhania, and Vijay Kedia for valuable insights into the market. Their buys and sells help investors discover interesting sectors and stocks. Here’s a look at their top buys in Q2FY25.

    (You can now also invest in shadow superstar baskets available on Starfolio, which are updated and rebalanced as per Trendlyne's superstar portfolios).

    In Q2, most superstar investors turned cautious, making fewer additions and more stake sales. The chart below shows the changes in superstar investors' current portfolio net worth. Note that net worth reflects changes in both current holdings and new buys & sells. 

    Each superstar investor's public portfolio reflects their particular investing style and sector preferences. The following chart gives a breakdown of the dominant sectors in each investor’s portfolio. 

    Sector preferences vary among superstar investors – RARE Enterprises leans towards the textiles apparels & accessories sector, while Ashish Kacholia and Sunil Singhania favor the general industrials sector. Vijay Kedia’s preferred industry is telecommunications equipment. Dolly Khanna prefers the oil & gas industry, and Porinju Veliyath favors software & services.

    RARE Enterprises adds a newly listed company to its portfolio in Q2

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio, currently managed by Rekha Jhunjhunwala and RARE Enterprises, has increased 2.9% to Rs 49,831.7 crore as of November 26. RARE Enterprises added just one new company and increased a minor stake in another during the quarter. 

    Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio added recently listed Baazar Style Retail by buying a 3.7% stake. The department stores chain debuted on the stock exchanges on September 6, 2024. The company was listed at a 2.8% premium but is currently trading at 15.7% lower than its listing price. 

    During Q2, RARE increased a minor stake in Tata Motors. The portfolio now holds a 1.3% stake in the cars & utility vehicles maker. Over the past year, the company’s share price has increased by 16.2%. 

    Ashish Kacholia adds six new companies to his portfolio

    Ashish Kacholia’s net worth has declined by 12.3% to Rs  2,967.9 crore as of November 26. During the quarter, the marquee investor added six new companies to his portfolio and raised a minor stake in another. 

    Kacholia’s biggest buy during the September quarter was Radiowalla Network, an advertising & media stock. The ace investor bought a 7.8% stake in the company. Radiowalla debuted on the stock exchanges on April 5, 2024. The company’s share price has increased by 49.9% from its listing price. 

    During Q2, the ace investor also bought a 2.7% stake in Advait Infratech. Over the past year, the electrical equipment maker has surged by 223.7%, outperforming its industry by 142.8%. Kacholia also added construction & engineering firm Jyoti Structures, by buying a 2.5% stake. The company’s share price has increased by 84.2% in the past year. 

    Kacholia also added Bharat Parenterals to his portfolio by buying a 2% stake, as well as a 1.1% stake each in Aimtron Electronics and E2E Networks. Over the past year, the pharmaceuticals, electronic components, and internet software & services companies have surged by  174.9%, 217.8%, and 515.1% respectively. 

    The ace investor increased a minor stake in Aeroflex Industries. He holds a 1.8% stake in the iron & steel products maker. 

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund makes no new buys in Q2

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund saw its net worth fall by 4.1% to Rs 2,929.9 crore as of November 26. The fund has been pretty quiet in recent months, and made no buys or stake increases during the quarter, continuing the trend from the June quarter.

    Vijay Kedia adds a new company in Q2, increases stake in another

    Vijay Kedia’s net worth decreased by 3.2% to Rs 1,777.7 crore. During the July-September quarter, the ace investor added consulting & software company TAC Infosec to his portfolio by buying a 14.6% stake. 

    Over the past year, TAC Infosec’s share price has zoomed 628.7%, outperforming its industry significantly by 589% points. 

    Kedia increased his stake in Precision Camshafts in Q2 by 0.9%. The ace investor now holds a 2.1% stake in the auto parts & equipment maker.  Over the past three months, the company’s share price has increased by 28.1%, compared to the industry’s 8.3% decline.

    Dolly Khanna adds three new companies to her portfolio in Q2

    Dolly Khanna’s net worth decreased by 23% to Rs 449.5 crore, she publicly holds 19 companies. During Q2, the investor continued to expand her portfolio by adding three new companies and raising stakes in eight others. Among her new investments is a 1.3% stake in mining company20 Microns and a 1.1% stake each in Pondy Oxides & Chemicals, a non-ferrous metals company, and commodity chemicals stock POCL Enterprises. Both Pondy Oxides and POCL have risen by 284.9% and 420.9%, respectively, over the past year.

    During the second quarter, Khanna bought a 0.88% stake in plastic products company Prakash Pipes, taking her holding to 3.8%. She bought a 0.85% stake incapital markets company Emkay Global Financial Services and now holds a 2.5% stake. The ace investor added minor stakes in the sugar stock KCP Sugar & Industries Corp and the fertilizers company Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizers. She now holds 1.6% stakes in both these companies. 

    During Q2, Khanna also bought minor stakes in Selan Exploration Technology, Nile, National Oxygen, Rajshree Sugars & Chemicals, and Zuari Industries. Notably, she added stakes in three companies from the sugar industry.

    Porinju Veliyath adds a hotels stock to his portfolio

    Porinju Veliyath’s net worth increased by 17.6% to Rs 271.9 crore. During the second quarter, he added Apollo Sindoori Hotels to his portfolio, acquiring a 1.4% stake in the hotels company.

    The investor also increased his holdings in three of his existing companies. He bought an additional 1.1% stake in real estate firm Ansal Buildwell, raising his total stake to 3.1%. Over the past year, Ansal Buildwell has outperformed its industry by 32.8%.

    The ace investor also added a 0.5% stake in an IT software company Aurum Proptech, taking his holding to 5.4%. Additionally, he raised his stake in TAAL Enterprises, an airline industry company, which has a good durability score of 70.

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