Tata Power Company Ltd. share price target

Tata Power (TPWR) adjusted PAT growth of 10% YoY was broadly in-line with our estimate. Growth is driven by TP solar, IPP, Delhi & Odhisa discom. In Q4FY26 T&D contributed 60% to PAT , followed by renewable at 25% and coal / standalone at 10%. The key overhang through FY26 the Mundra SPPA is now largely resolved, with the agreement concluded with Gujarat and the remaining four procurer states in advanced stages of finalisation, materially reducing earnings uncertainty from FY27 onwards. TPWR has an operational capacity of 16.7GW, currently skewed toward thermal generation; however, this mix is expected to improve materially with ~5GW of in-house...

Tata Power’s(TPWR) finalization of the Supplemental Power Purchase Agreement (SPPA) with Gujarat is a significant positive development, addressing the viability challenges of the Mundra plant.

*over or under performance to benchmark index to lower thermal and hydro segment revenue. Thermal and hydro revenue declined 58.9% YoY to Rs. 2,022cr, impacted by lower PLFs, planned outages and suspension of Mundra operation in Q3FY26. The renewable segment's revenue surged 78.3% YoY to Rs. 3,785cr, driven by an increase of 4,906 MW in solar capacity and an addition of 1,221 MW in wind capacity, supporting higher generation and execution. T&D revenue rose 8.8% YoY to Rs. 9,626cr, driven by strong operational performance...

Weak 3Q amid Mundra shutdown: Tata Power (TPWR) reported a 3QFY26 APAT of INR7.7b, indicating a 20% miss vs. our est.

Tata Power (TPWR) saw a muted Q2FY26, stifled by a shutdown of its 4GW coal-based power plant – a consequence of the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) impasse.

TPWR aims to double EBITDA to INR300b by FY30; for the Mundra plant, company is in advanced discussions to finalize a new SPPA mechanism (similar in nature to Section XI), which should enable power scheduling from Jan’26.

Tata Power (TPWR) is present across the power value chain – generation, transmission and distribution. TPWR has diversified its presence over the years – from its conventional thermal power and integrated Mumbai distribution business, the company is now building up its renewables portfolio with notable backward integration via in-house solar EPC and module/cell manufacturing.

TPWR’s consolidated EBITDA/adj. PAT came in at INR33b/INR9.2b, below our estimates by 12%/13%. The weakness in results was largely attributable to Mundra plant shutdown in 2Q, which offset the stronger performance at Odisha distribution and the solid ramp-up at TP Solar on a YoY basis.

Tata Power has been integrating a diverse set of businesses in its portfolio. From a conventional thermal power and integrated Mumbai distribution business, it has come a long way in building its renewable pack – a trifecta of solar manufacturing, solar EPC and RE generation.

TPWR’s 1QFY26 EBITDA came in 25% above our estimate at INR41b, while adjusted PAT was in line with our est. at INR10.6b.

The company's overall performance was strong, driven by efficient execution in its renewable pipeline, full-scale solar cell and module operations, and sustained leadership in rooftop solar and EV infrastructure. Strategic initiatives such as pumped hydro development, clean energy expansion and digital grid modernisation underscore its commitment to long-term growth. Management's calibrated capital allocation, rural electrification push and third-party EPC order execution offer...

Tata Power Company Limited’s (TPCL) Q4FY25 Adjusted PAT grew by 14.5% y-o-y to Rs. 1,025 crore and was a little ahead of estimates. The earnings growth is attributable to the traditional generation, coal, Tata Power Solar (cell & module plant), Odisha discoms and a lower tax rate.

Tata Power reported a good set of result in Q4FY25. EBITDA came in at INR 34.8bn (+27% YoY) driven by strong performance in renewables segment – solar manufacturing and renewable generation, coupled with strong show by Odisha discoms.

TPWR’s 4QFY25 EBITDA came in 7% above our estimate at INR32.5b, while adjusted PAT was in line with our est. at INR9.7b.

Tata Power Company Limited’s (TPCL) Q3FY25 Adjusted PAT grew by 8.2% y-o-y to Rs. 1,031 crore, which was inline with our estimates.

Tata Power commissioned 4GW of solar cell capacity in Q3FY25. Its solar manufacturing capacity reported an excellent set of result – INR 13bn in revenue and INR 1bn in profit in Q3. It now operates largest integrated solar cell and module manufacturing plant in the country.

TPWR’s 3QFY25 EBITDA came in 4% below our estimate but was up 38% on a YoY basis.The rise in EBITDA was driven by: 1) robust growth in the standalone business amid strong PLFs and regulatory upside in Mundra.

Tata Power in its analyst meet showed a roadmap for the company till FY30. Company has increased the capex guidance to Rs. 25,000 annually from Rs. 22,000 crore previously.

Tata Power: Site Visit and Analyst Meet 2024

Tata Power hosted its Investor Day at its 4.3GW solar cell and module factory in Tirunelveli, Tamil Nadu on 6 Dec’24.