My Newsfeed

logo
The Baseline
11 Oct 2023
By Akshat Singh

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at the top 15 stocks that drove the Nifty 500’s rise in the past year. These stocks were responsible for 25.3% of the Nifty 500’s 14% gain. This translated to an overall 3.6 percentage point contribution.

Over the past year, the Nifty 500 has risen 14%. To understand which were the top stocks that drove this surge, we analysed the change in market capitalisation for stocks in the index, and divided it by the total change in market cap across all index members.

NBFCs and public sector banks lead gains in banking & finance 

Six of the 15 stocks in our list are from the banking & finance sector. Within the sector, the non-banking financial company (NBFC) industry is represented by Indian Railways Finance Corp, Power Finance Corp, and REC. These three stocks drove 3.5%, 2.2%, and 2.2% of the Nifty 500’s gains, registering impressive one year returns  of 250%, 191%, and 199%, respectively.  

The top public sector banks in the list include Indian Overseas Bank, UCO Bank and Union Bank of India, contributing Nifty500 gains of 2%, 2%, and 0.2% respectively. They delivered  multibagger returns of 161%, 262%, and 135% in the past year. 

The public banking sector’s PE  TTM ratio stands at 8, compared to the overall banking industry's 19.2, indicating potential for further growth in PSU bank stocks. Several growth drivers like the RBI's decision to remove the incremental CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) mandate of 10% for scheduled banks and the inclusion of Indian sovereign bonds in the JP Morgan Government Bond Index are at play.

Engineering stocks surge on budget boost and lower input costs 

Larsen & Toubro and Rail Vikas Nigam from the cement & construction sector have contributed 3.9% and 1.9% respectively to Nifty 500’s yearly gain. Their performance got a lift from the government’s 33% capex hike to Rs 10 trillion in the FY24 budget. The sector's growth can also be attributed to the declining prices of input materials like steel, which have fallen by 22% since their peak in Q4FY22. These prices are further expected to drop by 9-11% in FY24. This decline is expected to have a positive impact on operating profitability, especially for companies with fixed-price contracts, which typically constitute 25-30% of their total revenue. 

Larsen & Toubro’s stock price rose by 62% in the past year. According to the company's Chief Financial Officer, R Shankar Raman, its order book increased by 57% YoY to Rs 65,000 crore in Q1FY24. The management expects it to surge to Rs 2 lakh crore by Q4FY24. 

Rail Vikas Nigam, with a 368% rise in the past year, has reaped the benefits of the government’s Rs 2.4 lakh crore allocation to the railways in the FY24 budget. As of Q1FY24, the company's order book is at Rs 65,000 crore, including Rs 30,000 crore from the railways. The management aims to grow it to Rs 75,000-1 lakh crore by the end of the fiscal year.

Meanwhile, IT major Tata Consultancy Services contributed 3.3% to Nifty 500’s gains, thanks to a 17% annual share price growth. The company has multiple transformational deals in its pipeline, including projects with NEST for digital scheme administration services. According to Sharekhan, TCS sustains strong deal momentum, averaging $8.9 billion from Q1FY23 to Q1FY24. Notably, contracts with JLR (Jaguar-Land Rover)/NEST and BSNL, valued at $1 billion, $1.1 billion, and $1.8 billion, are expected to boost revenue growth estimates.

Strong order books and inflows drive general industrials and shipping stocks 

Suzlon Energy, a heavy electrical equipment company, added 1.5% to the gains of Nifty 500, thanks to a 280% rise in its stock price in the past year. The company currently holds a 33% market share in the wind energy space, with an order book of 1.5 GW in the domestic market. According to ICICI Securities, its revenues are expected to achieve a CAGR of 37% during FY23-25.

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, a shipping company, contributed 1.6% to Nifty 500’s gains. With multibagger returns of 261% in the past year, the company’s order book consists of defence orders amounting to Rs 50,000 crore as of August 2023. The firm is also competing with a joint venture of Larsen & Toubro and Thyssenkrupp, Germany, in the bidding of P75 submarines. 

Other significant contributors to Nifty 500’s gains are ITC, NTPC and The Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore. ITC, with a 31% annual growth, contributed 2.5%, while NTPC’s 45% annual stock price increase added another 1.5%. The Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore contributed 1.8%, with a remarkable 366% rise in its share price over the same period

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
11 Oct 2023
Market closes higher, Motilal Oswal maintains ‘Buy’ on PI Industries

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 19,811.35 (121.5, 0.6%) , BSE Sensex closed at 66,473.05 (393.7, 0.6%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 17,407.35 (104, 0.6%), of the 1,985 stocks traded today, 1,269 were on the uptick, and 670 were down.

Indian indices extended their gains from the afternoon session and closed in the green, with the Nifty 50 closing at 19,811.4 points. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, fell 2.5% and closed at 11 points. Larsen & Toubro’s hydrocarbon business bagged a contract worth more than Rs 7,000 crore from a client in the Middle East.    

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green, taking cues from the benchmark index. Nifty Realty and Nifty Infra closed higher than their Tuesday close. According to Trendlyne's sector dashboard, Telecommunications Equipment was the top-performing sector of the day as it rose 2.1%.

Major European indices traded flat or lower, except for Switzerland Swiss Market Index trading in the green. However, Asian indices closed higher than their Tuesday levels. US index futures traded in the green, indicating a positive start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures traded in the red for a second straight session after rising 4.6% on Monday.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like PCBL, Prestige Estates Projects, Safari Industries (India) and Solar Industries India are in the overbought zone.

  • Tanla Platforms surges more than 7%, ahead of its earnings announcement on October 20. Trendlyne's Forecaster estimates its revenue to grow by 35.9% and 34.5% in FY24. It has a Trendlyne Momentum score of 64, aiding it to appear in a screener of stocks with high momentum scores.

  • HDFC Securities initiates coverage on Stylam Industries with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 2,300. This indicates an upside of 30.2%. The brokerage is optimistic about the firm due to its industry-leading EBITDA margins, healthy balance sheet and potential for domestic and global expansion. It expects the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 26% over FY23-26.

  • The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that India's natural gas demand will increase by 4% in 2023 and grow by over 8% annually until 2026. Despite a 6% fall in 2022, India's LNG imports rose 8% in the first eight months of 2023 compared to the same period last year.

  • Hindustan Zinc falls following reports indicating a potential 3.5% stake sale by the government through an offer for sale. The company appears in a screener of stocks with increasing promoter pledge.

  • PSU Banks like Bank of Baroda, Central Bank of India, UCO Bank, Indian Overseas Bank and Bank of Maharashtra are falling in trade. Barring Indian Bank and Punjab National Bank, all other constituents of the broader sectoral index, Nifty PSU Bank, are trading in the red.

  • Satia Industries is rising as it bags multiple orders worth Rs 340 crore from Text Book Production and Marketing, M.P. Text Book Corp, Rajasthan State Textbook Corp and State Bureau of Textbook Production & Curriculum Research. The orders relate to the supply of 34,000 MT of paper for printing textbooks.

  • Equity Mutual Funds' net inflow declines marginally MoM to Rs 13,857 crore in August, according to data released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI). Meanwhile, SIP contributions and ETF investments surge during the month.

  • Oil & gas stocks like Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Reliance Industries are rising in trade. All constituents of the broader BSE Oil & Gas are trading in the green.

  • Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on PI Industries and raises the target price to Rs 4,560 from Rs 4,450. This implies an upside of 29.9%. The brokerage remains positive about the firm’s growth prospects due to its robust order book, new product launches and the recent acquisitions in the pharmaceuticals space.

  • Info Edge (India)'s arm Redstart Labs (India) agrees to invest $4,00,000 in Ray IOT Solutions, a healthcare company engaged in developing a non-contact breathing and sleep tracker for babies.

  • Larsen & Toubrois rising as its hydrocarbon business bags a contract worth more than Rs 7,000 crore from a client in the Middle East. The contract is for the engineering, procurement and construction of gas compression facilities.

  • Boman Rustom Irani, CMD of Keystone Realtors, says that H1FY24 has been favourable for the company and highlights that it has achieved 45% of the FY24 pre-sales guidance of Rs 1,800 crore. He believes that the firm may surpass the FY24 guidance in H2, driven by new launches. He adds that the company's major focus remains on volumes, followed by pricing.

  • Wiprorises as it signs a definitive agreement to acquire 10% equity shares of FPEL Ujwal, amounting to Rs 6.3 crore. With this acquisition, the company plans to increase the use of renewable energy across its offices in Karnataka. It appears in a screenerof stocks nearing their 52-week highs, with significant volumes.

  • Multi Commodity Exchange of Indiarises to its all-time highof Rs 2,179.4 per share as it announces its plans to launch a commodity derivatives platform on Monday. A mock trading exercise will be held on Sunday to test the platform.

  • JK Tyre & Industries is rising as Emkay reportedly initiates coverage on it with a ‘Buy’ rating. The brokerage believes the stock price can double over the next three years, led by growth in its high-margin segment and declining debt. It adds that the company has outperformed its peers over the past 12 quarters.

  • CLSA reportedly upgrades India to ‘Overweight’ and increases its portfolio allocation to 20% over the MSCI benchmark. The brokerage believes that India has a substantial potential for credit growth.

  • Laxmi Organic Industries surges more than 11% as its fundraising committee approves a QIP issue and the allotment of 96.3 lakh equity shares worth Rs 259.1 crore. It appears in a screener for stocks with strong momentum.

  • IT stocks like Wipro, Mphasis, Persistent Systems, LTIMindtree and L&T Technology Services are rising in trade. All the constituents of the broader sectoral index, Nifty IT, are trading in the green.

  • Ugro Capital rises following a 73% YoY growth in its Q2FY24 assets under management, reaching Rs 7,590 crore. The company's overall efficiency improves by 80 bps to 97.6%. The company appears in a screener of stocks with increasing net profit and margin.

  • DAM Capital maintains its 'Buy' rating on TVS Motor Co with an upgraded target price of Rs 3,051. The brokerage forecasts a robust recovery in the company's export markets starting from H2FY24. It expects TVS to register a solid double-digit volume growth of over 30% in H2FY24, as well as margin expansion.

  • Anil Kumar Goel and Associates cuts its stake in LG Balakrishnan & Bros to below 1% in Q2FY24. It held a 1.3% stake in Q1.

  • Porinju Veliyath cuts his stake in Taneja Aerospace & Aviation to below 1% in Q2FY24. He held a 1.2% stake in Q1.

  • Bank of Baroda falls as the RBI directs it to suspend the onboarding of new customers to its 'BOB World' mobile application. This move comes as the regulator noted supervisory concerns related to the customer onboarding process on the app. The company appears in a screener of stocks with declining net cash flow.

  • Zee Entertainment Enterprises faces an appeal lodged by IDBI Trusteeship Services at the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) in Delhi. This appeal challenges the National Company Law Tribunal’s (NCLT) approval of the Zee Entertainment and Sony Pictures merger.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Vodafone Idea Ltd. (11.85, 7.24%), Hero MotoCorp Ltd. (3,100.85, 4.17%) and Max Healthcare Institute Ltd. (575.00, 3.60%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Bank of Baroda (207.20, -3.31%), ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd. (524.90, -2.82%) and JSW Energy Ltd. (397.35, -2.74%).

Movers and Shakers

26 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Mishra Dhatu Nigam Ltd. (456.90, 12.03%), Laxmi Organic Industries Ltd. (302.20, 11.43%) and Tanla Platforms Ltd. (1,104.10, 7.10%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy Ltd. (313.80, -5.00%), Poly Medicure Ltd. (1,369.90, -2.54%) and Abbott India Ltd. (22,430.25, -1.40%).

JK Paper Ltd. (400.30, 3.54%) was trading at 10.0 times of weekly average. Welspun India Ltd. (124.35, 6.06%) and Welspun Corp Ltd. (410.30, 5.04%) were trading with volumes 9.7 and 8.9 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

35 stocks overperformed with 52 week highs, while 1 stock tanked below their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Bharti Airtel Ltd. (955.60, 0.76%), Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company Ltd. (1,259.70, 0.04%) and Coal India Ltd. (301.85, -0.46%).

Stock making new 52 weeks lows included - Rajesh Exports Ltd. (464.05, -1.11%).

10 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including City Union Bank Ltd. (140.80, 4.49%) and Rallis India Ltd. (217.15, 2.57%).

 
logo
The Baseline
10 Oct 2023
Five analyst picks this week
By Abhiraj Panchal

1. Birla Corp: 

ICICI Direct maintains a 'Buy' rating on this cement manufacturing company with a target price of Rs 1,540, indicating an upside of 23.2%. Analyst Vijay Goel is optimistic about the company's efforts to enhance capacity utilisation and operational efficiency, which are expected to boost margins and profitability.

Goel is upbeat about the recently commissioned 3.9 million-tonne cement facility in Muktaban, Maharashtra. He foresees robust sales volume growth as Birla Corp expands in the west while maintaining a strong footprint in the northern, central, and eastern parts of India. He projects a strong CAGR of 8.2% in sales volume over FY23-25.

The analyst notes the company's efforts to improve operational efficiency through streamlined raw material sourcing, increased utilisation of coal from its captive mines, and a shift towards captive power, including solar and waste heat recovery. Goel also highlights government incentives for the Muktaban facility, lower fuel costs, and a strategic focus on premium product sales as key contributors to potential margin and profit growth in FY24-25.

2. Federal Bank: 

Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this private bank with a target price of Rs 170, implying an upside of 14.8%. Analysts at the brokerage expect the bank to sustain its healthy operational performance, with strong loan growth, healthy fee income, and lower credit costs, despite net interest margin (NIM) pressure in the near term. They add, “The bank saw an impressive loan growth of 20% YoY and 5% QoQ in Q2FY24. This growth was broad-based across retail (22% YoY) and wholesale (17% YoY) segments.”

The analysts highlight the management’s optimistic outlook on credit growth, which is guided to be 18-20% in FY24, with broad-based traction across asset classes. Federal Bank plans to scale up the share of high-yielding assets in its loan book. The analysts also expect NIMs to bottom out in H1FY24 and gradually pick up in H2FY24. They forecast the bank’s standalone net profit to grow at a CAGR of 17.5% over FY23-25.

3. APL Apollo Tubes: 

Motilal Oswal maintains a 'Buy' rating on this iron and steel products company with a target price of Rs 1,930, indicating an upside of 22.6%. Analysts Sumant Kumar, Meet Jain, and Omkar Shintre hold a positive outlook due to the company's well-distributed manufacturing plants, giving it a robust geographic presence and keeping it close to customers.

Analysts at Motilal Oswal see the company's focus on value-added products as a big plus, especially with the addition of the Raipur plant, which has a capacity of 1.2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA). They expect the Raipur unit to produce innovative roofing products designed for better corrosion protection and durability. They believe that these value-added products will boost margins.

Kumar, Jain and Shintre expect that increased capacity, debottlenecking, and the addition of high-margin products from the Raipur unit, will drive volume growth and margin expansion in the future.

4. Navin Fluorine International: 

HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this commodity chemicals manufacturer with a target price of Rs 5,368, implying an upside of 44.6%. Analysts Nilesh Ghuge, Harshad Katkar and Akshay Mane are optimistic about the firm’s growth prospects despite the resignation of its Managing Director, Radhesh Welling. Their positive outlook is on the back of the firm’s strong earnings visibility, given its long-term contracts, increasing share of high-margin segments in total sales, and rising production capacity. They also add, “The company’s operating model, with individual CEOs leading each business vertical, supported by senior management teams from various departments, will help it maintain its growth strategy.”

Ghuge, Katkar and Mane are positive about the management’s focus on  maintaining capex spending, and research & development investments. They believe the company’s focus on expanding its existing capacity will enable it to win bigger projects in the future, thus maintaining the growth momentum. The analysts expect the firm’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 27.7% over FY23-26.  

5. Ujjivan Small Finance Bank:

Axis Direct reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this bank with a target price of Rs 64, indicating an upside of 9.9%. Analysts Dnyanada Vaidya, Prathamesh Sawant and Bhavya Shah say, “FY23 was characterised by a sharp rebound in the MFI business and a gradual pick up in the non-microfinance book.” The bank’s disbursements have grown by 42% YoY. As the challenges posed by the pandemic fade, the analysts highlight improvements in both asset quality and profitability metrics. 

Vaidya, Sawant and Shah expect Ujjivan Small Finance Bank to grow rapidly with these building blocks in place. They are optimistic that the bank will now focus on sustaining growth momentum and improving efficiency. They believe that the bank is well-poised to deliver robust RoA and RoE of 3-3.1% and 25-27%, respectively, supported by improving cost ratios and consistent credit costs. 

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
10 Oct 2023
Market closes higher, Dolly Khanna sells a 0.3% stake in KCP, now holds a 1.4% stake

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50closed at 19,689.85 (177.5, 0.9%), BSE Sensexclosed at 66,079.36 (567.0, 0.9%) while the broader Nifty 500closed at 17,303.35 (175.7, 1.0%). Market breadth is highly positive. Of the 1,982 stocks traded today, 1,508 were gainers and 436 were losers.

Indian indices extended the gains from the afternoon session and closed in the green, with the Nifty 50closing at 19,690. The volatility index, Nifty VIX, dropped by 1.1% and closed at 11.3 points. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised India’s FY24 GDP growth forecast to 6.3% from an earlier estimate of 6.1%.

Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 closed in the green, following the benchmark index. Nifty Realty and Nifty Metal closed higher than Monday’s closing levels. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, coal emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of over 6%.

Most European indices trade in the green. US indices futures trade higher, indicating a positive start. The data released by the Italian National Institute of Statistics indicated that Italy’s industrial production in August increased by 0.2% MoM against the estimates of a 0% growth. Brent crude oil prices have increased by 4% since the conflict in Israel and hovering around $88 per barrel.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that stocks like Kaynes Technology India, Safari Industries (India), PCBL and Solar Industries India are in the overbought zone.

  • Prestige Estates Projects surges more than 9% to touch its all-time high of Rs 796.4 per share. It ranks high on Trendlyne's checklist with a score of 63.6%. The stock has a 'Buy' consensus from 14 out of 16 analysts. Its revenue is expected to grow by 25.7% in Q2FY24, according to Trendlyne's Forecaster.

  • Coal India rises over 5% to touch its 52-week high of Rs 303.7, following Nuvama Institutional Equities' projection of a record dividend payout of Rs 30 in H2FY24. The brokerage keeps a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock and raises the target price to Rs 389 from Rs 361, citing the firm's potential for volume growth, improved e-auction prices, and the possibility of high dividends.

  • Shyam Metalics and Energy rises as its Q2FY24 sponge iron sales volume increases by 3.1% YoY to 1.8 lakh tonnes and steel sales volume grows by 8.3% YoY to 50.8 lakh tonnes. The company appears in a screener of stocks with improving book value per share.

  • Anil Yadav, CFO at IRB Infrastructure Developers, says the company targets its Hyderabad business to generate an EBITDA of Rs 600-650 crore. He adds that its construction margins are expected to improve by 100-200 bps.

  • JSW Steel is rising as its crude steel production grows by 13% YoY to 6.4 million tonnes in Q2FY24, helped by increased Indian operations. The company appears in a screener of stocks with upgraded analyst recommendations or target prices over the past three months.

  • Solar Industries India rises as it receives its biggest-ever order worth Rs 1,853 crore from Coal India for the supply of bulk explosives, which it will supply in a span of two years. It appears in a screener for stocks with strong momentum.

  • HCL Technologies and Angel One's weekly average delivery volumes rise ahead of their Q2FY24 results on Thursday.

  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raises India’s GDP growth forecast for FY24 by 20 bps to 6.3%, while it maintains its FY25 projection of 6.3%. The IMF also projects India’s CPI inflation for FY24 at 5.5%.

  • GM Breweries is falling as its Q2FY24 net profit declines 1.4% YoY to Rs 22.4 crore despite its revenue rising by 5.8% YoY. The drop in profitability is due to higher raw material costs and excise duty. Its EBITDA margin falls by 2.1 percentage points YoY to 19.6%.

  • Vascon Engineers rises as it receives a Letter of Acceptance(LOA) worth Rs 352.9 crore from Jharkhand State Building Construction Corporation for the completion of remaining work for a medical college and the upgradation of a district hospital in Koderma. It appears in a screener for stocks with strong momentum.

  • Ajmera Realty & Infra India is rising as its sales value surges by 52% YoY to Rs 252 crore in Q2FY24 and collections increase by 8% YoY. The company also acquired three projects with a gross development value of Rs 800 crore.

  • IDFC First Bank sells its office premises in BKC, Mumbai, for Rs 198 crore to the National Securities Depository.

  • Global crude oil prices decline after rising over 4% in the previous sessions. Analysts believe that prices may continue to rise amid concerns over supply shortages caused by the Israel-Hamas conflict. Brent crude is currently trading at around $87.9 per barrel.

  • Media stocks like DB Corp, Saregama India, TV18 Broadcast, Network18 Media & Investments and Dish TV India are rising in trade. All the constituents of the broader sectoral index, Nifty Media, are also trading in the green.

  • Realty stocks like Prestige Estates Projects, Godrej Properties, DLF and Oberio Realty rise more than 2% in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty Realty index are also trading in the green.

  • HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Sell’ rating on Trent with a target price of Rs 1,370. This implies a downside of 33.6%. The brokerage believes the stock is trading at an expensive valuation and expects the revenue per store to decline if the company continues its store expansion beyond two years. It adds that a huge share of FY22 and FY23 net profits came from dividends and mark-ups on fixed assets sold, which is unlikely to sustain bottom-line growth in the medium-to-long term.

  • According to a poll of economists, India's retail inflation is expected to fall to a three-month low of 5.4% in September from 6.8% in August, re-entering the RBI's tolerance range of 2-6% after two months. Economists also anticipate India’s IIP (Index of Industrial Production) to grow by 9.1% in August.

  • Larsen & Toubro wins a contract worth Rs 1,000-2,500 crore for the construction of a water supply project in Rajasthan. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with consistently high returns over the past five years.

  • Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders surges over 5% as it signs a letter of intent (LoI) with a European client to construct six firm and four optional units of 7,500 DWT multi-purpose hybrid power vessels.

  • Genus Power Infrastructures rises sharply as its subsidiary bags orders worth Rs 3,115 crore. The order involves the design of an advanced metering system and the installation of 34.8 lakh smart prepaid meters. The company appears in a screenerof stocks with improving quarterly revenue.

  • Dolly Khanna sells a 0.3% stake in KCP in Q2FY24. She now holds a 1.4% stake in the company.

  • DAM Capital maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Escorts Kubota, with an upgraded target price of Rs 5,100. It expects increased export growth to boost the company’s overall volume growth. The brokerage predicts revenue and PAT CAGR of 17% and 41%, respectively, over FY23-26.

  • Ashish Kacholia buys a 3.5% stake in Saakshi Medtech & Panels in a bulk deal on Monday.

  • Ashish Kacholiaadds Aeroflex Industries to his portfolio in Q2FY24, buys a 1.8% stake in the company.

  • Dilip Buildconis rising as it receives a letter of acceptance (LoA) worth Rs 396.9 crore from the Water Resources Zone, Udaipur. The LoA is for an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract to build the Dewas III and IV dams in Rajasthan, with a completion timeline of 44 months.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Indian Railway Finance Corporation Ltd. (75.65, 6.32%), Delhivery Ltd. (433.60, 5.91%) and Godrej Properties Ltd. (1,722.75, 5.65%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Max Healthcare Institute Ltd. (555.00, -2.39%), Bayer Cropscience Ltd. (5,285.00, -1.97%) and Trent Ltd. (2,050.80, -1.36%).

Movers and Shakers

20 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Prestige Estates Projects Ltd. (727.50, 8.50%), Godfrey Phillips India Ltd. (2,263.70, 7.25%) and City Union Bank Ltd. (134.75, 7.16%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Triveni Turbine Ltd. (384.80, -4.27%) and Honeywell Automation India Ltd. (38,433.55, -0.05%).

Vaibhav Global Ltd. (436.70, 6.60%) was trading at 8.3 times of weekly average. Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd. (284.20, 4.14%) and Godrej Properties Ltd. (1,722.75, 5.65%) were trading with volumes 4.7 and 4.4 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

27 stocks took off, crossing 52 week highs, while 1 stock hit their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Bharti Airtel Ltd. (948.35, 2.57%), Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company Ltd. (1,259.15, 3.25%) and Coal India Ltd. (303.25, 5.37%).

Stock making new 52 weeks lows included - Rajesh Exports Ltd. (469.25, -1.87%).

8 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd. (284.20, 4.14%) and Steel Authority of India (SAIL) Ltd. (88.80, 2.84%). 8 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Star Health and Allied Insurance Company Ltd. (575.20, -1.24%) and Sumitomo Chemical India Ltd. (422.35, -0.72%).

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
09 Oct 2023
Market closes lower, KPI Green Energy bags three orders for 4.2 MW solar power projects

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50closed at 19,512.35 (-141.2, -0.7%), BSE Sensexclosed at 65,512.39 (-483.2, -0.7%) while the broader Nifty 500closed at 17127.70 (-165.9, -1.0%). Market breadth is moving down. Of the 1,993 stocks traded today, 368 were in the positive territory and 1,594 were negative.

Indian indices closed in the red, with the Nifty Nifty 50 closing at 19,512.4 points. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose 10.7% and closed at 11.4 points. Hero MotoCorp closed 2.5% lower after reports of an FIR registered against Pawan Munjal, MD & CEO, by the Vasant Kunj Police station. The FIR relates to a fake invoice case of Rs 5.9 crore registered by Brains Logistics in 2009-10.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed lower, taking cues from the benchmark index. Nifty Media closed 2.2% lower while Nifty IT closed flat. According to Trendlyne's sector dashboard, Telecommunications Equipment was the top-performing sector of the day as it rose 3.6% in a weak market.

Major European indices recovered from their day lows and traded flat or marginally higher, except for Germany's DAX index trading in the red. Asian indices closed mixed amid weak global cues. US index futures traded lower, indicating a negative start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures fell from their day highs but still traded 3% higher on fears of crude oil supply disruption from Iran.

  • Multi Commodity Exchange of India sees a long buildup in its October 26 future series as its open interest rises 19.2% with a put-call ratio of 0.6.

  • HDFC Bank, Alkem Laboratories and GMM Pfaudler see their mutual fund holdings rise by 2.1%, 1.6% and 1.5% respectively.

  • CG Power and Industrial Solutions, BSE, and Varun Beverages’ stock prices increase 259.7%, 231.5%, and 211% respectively over the past two years.

  • Metal & mining stocks like Jindal Stainless, Welspun Corp, Hindustan Copper, APL Apollo Tubes and Steel Authority of India are falling in trade. Barring Hindustan Zinc, all the other constituents of the broader sectoral index, Nifty Metal, are trading in the red.

  • Vascon Engineers rises to an all-time high of Rs 78.5 as it bags an order worth Rs 262.2 crore from a Government of India enterprise, Bridge and Roof Co India. The project involves the development of the Government Medical College in Kanker, Chhattisgarh. The company appears in a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

  • KPI Green Energy is rising as it bags three orders for 4.2 MW solar power projects under its captive power producer segment. The projects are expected to be completed in FY24.

  • NLC India is falling despite bagging an 810 MW grid-connected solar power project from Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with book value per share improving over the past two years.

  • Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone declines by over 4% due to concerns over the Haifa port in northern Israel. The company assures that it has contingency plans to ensure business continuity. It adds that Hafia contributes only 3% of the total cargo volumes. For FY24, the firm expects Haifa's cargo volumes to be in the range of 10-12 MMT.

  • Hero MotoCorp is falling following reports of an FIR registered against Pawan Munjal, MD & CEO, by the Vasant Kunj Police station. The FIR relates to a fake invoice case of Rs 5.9 crore registered by Brains Logistics in 2009-10.

  • PSU Banks like Central Bank of India, Bank of Maharashtra, Punjab & Sind Bank, Indian Overseas Bank and Punjab National Bankare falling in trade. The broader sectoral index, Nifty PSU Bank, is also trading in the red.

  • Shree Renuka Sugarsacquires a 100% stake (5 crore shares) in Anamika Sugar Mills for Rs 235.5 crore to establish its presence in Uttar Pradesh. It appears in a screenerfor stocks in the Nifty 500 with consistent high returns over five years.

  • Morgan Stanley maintains its ‘Equal-weight’ rating on Titan Co with a target price of Rs 3,190. The brokerage highlights that the company achieved a 20% YoY revenue growth in Q2FY24, despite the general weakness in discretionary demand.

  • Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on The Ramco Cements and raises the target price to Rs 1,130 from Rs 1,010. This implies an upside of 21%. The brokerage is optimistic about the company’s growth prospects on the back of rising sales volumes, focus on premiumisation and improving cost efficiencies.

  • Metropolis Healthcare rises as its Q2FY24 core business revenue grows by 13% YoY. The company's B2C revenue increases by 15% YoY. The company appears in a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

  • Global oil prices surge following an attack on Israel by Hamas, raising concerns over possible supply shocks from the region.

  • R C Bhargava, Chairman of Maruti Suzuki India, announces that the company plans to invest over Rs 50,000 crore by FY31. He adds that a significant portion of this investment, amounting to Rs 45,000 crore, is dedicated to expanding the production capacity to 4 million vehicles annually. Investments will also be utilised to improve the supply chain and to develop the export infrastructure, with an aim to export 7,50,000 vehicles by FY31.

  • Som Distilleries & Breweries declines as its board decides not to proceed with the proposed QIP issue due to the limited number of bids received. The company says it will evaluate the viability of raising funds at a suitable time. It appears in a screener for stocks in the 'Sell' zone.

  • Rail Vikas Nigam is falling despite it bagging an order worth Rs 394.8 crore from Maharashtra Metro Rail Corp. The project involves the design and construction of an elevated metro viaduct and is expected to be completed in 30 months.

  • Multi Commodity Exchange of India is rising as SEBI's Technical Advisory Committee grants approval for the launch of its commodity derivative platform (CDP).

  • Prestige Estates Projects hits an all-time high of Rs 700.9 following a 102% YoY increase in Q2FY24 net sales to Rs 7092.6 crore. The group sold 3,659 units during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks with improving book value per share.

  • Retail sales for the automotive industry rise 20.4% YoY to 18.8 lakh units in September, shows data from the Federation of Automotive Dealers' Association. Two-wheeler retail sales are up 21.7% YoY, while cars increase by 19% YoY. FADA anticipates an upbeat festive season for auto retail and has changed its outlook for the festive season from cautiously optimistic to optimistic.

  • Dolly Khanna buys a 0.5% stake in Prakash Pipes in Q2FY24. She now holds a 3.2% stake in the company.

  • Radhakishan Damanisells a 0.3% stake in Andhra Paperin Q2FY24. He now holds a 1% stake in the company.

  • Mohnish Pabraisells a 1.9% stake in Rain Industriesin Q2FY24. He now holds a 7% stake in the company.

  • Kaynes Technologyis rising as the company plans to set up a semiconductor OSAT (outsourced semiconductor assembly and testing) and compound semiconductor facility in Telangana. The company has estimated a capex of Rs 2,800 crore for the facility.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Oil India Ltd. (311.25, 5.24%), Supreme Industries Ltd. (4,000.00, 2.24%) and Hindustan Zinc Ltd. (311.80, 2.05%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Indian Overseas Bank (43.30, -6.38%), Adani Power Ltd. (342.00, -6.12%) and Union Bank of India (99.35, -5.65%).

Movers and Shakers

11 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included ITI Ltd. (215.00, 11.98%), Oil India Ltd. (311.25, 5.24%) and Archean Chemical Industries Ltd. (602.25, 2.51%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd. (120.90, -2.54%) and Elgi Equipments Ltd. (494.00, -0.15%).

United Breweries Ltd. (1,561.40, 0.04%) was trading at 5.8 times of weekly average. Crisil Ltd. (3,917.65, 1.94%) and Metropolis Healthcare Ltd. (1,501.10, 2.04%) were trading with volumes 4.4 and 4.0 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

17 stocks overperformed with 52 week highs, while 4 stocks hit their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Coromandel International Ltd. (1,162.00, -0.81%), Godrej Industries Ltd. (678.25, -5.68%) and Ipca Laboratories Ltd. (936.10, 0.24%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Rajesh Exports Ltd. (478.20, -3.77%) and Adani Total Gas Ltd. (590.30, -2.37%).

16 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Petronet LNG Ltd. (223.20, -3.12%) and Sumitomo Chemical India Ltd. (425.10, -3.04%).

 
logo
The Baseline
06 Oct 2023
Five Interesting Stocks Today

1. Bajaj Finance: 

This NBFC touched its 52-week high of Rs 8,192 per share and closed 4.1% higher on Friday, a day after announcing its Q2FY24 business update.  The company’s board of directors approved the raising of Rs 8,800 crore through qualified institutional placement (QIP) on Thursday, subject to approval from shareholders. Funds from the QIP will be used to reduce the company’s cost of capital and increase its AUM growth, and is a response to rising competition in the sector.

The stock has risen by 11.2% over the past month, outperforming the Nifty 50 index by 10.8 percentage points. This helped the company appear in a screener of stocks with high momentum scores.

The NBFC’s assets under management (AUM) improved by 33% YoY to Rs 2.9 lakh crore for the quarter, aided by increased deposits and new loans. This growth beat Jefferies’ estimates by 300 bps. The company’s customer franchise increased by 3.6 million YoY to 76.6 million, and remains on track to achieve its guidance for 12-13 million growth in users during FY24. Trendlyne’s Forecaster predicts revenue growth of 26.8% YoY in Q2 and 24.8% YoY in FY24. 

Post the business update, BOB Capital Markets maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 9,105 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 16%. The brokerage believes that the company’s strong AUM growth, diverse product mix and efficient execution will help it keep up with competitors and improve its asset quality. It expects the company’s net interest income to grow at a CAGR of 20% over FY22-25. 

2. Kaynes Technology India:

This electronics manufacturing services (EMS) company has risen 13.6% over the past week till Friday, riding on the back of a healthy business outlook. The Indian EMS industry is expected to benefit from the global shift in supply chains, positioning Kaynes to profit from its presence across various industrial segments. The company provides manufacturing services to firms in the automotive, railways, aerospace, defence, medical and information technology sectors.

As the company mostly caters to other industrial businesses, its primary exposure is to the business-to-business (B2B) segment. According to reports, Morgan Stanley expects EMS companies with high B2B exposure to outperform their peers due to reduced competition and higher margins. It adds that this will enable companies to spend more on research & development and increase the scope for backward integration.

The management states that the firm has a low customer concentration, with the top five clients making up 44% of the total revenue. Kaynes also added one large multinational client in Q1FY24. 

Trendlyne's Forecaster estimates the firm’s revenue to surge by 33.5% QoQ and 99% YoY to Rs 396.7 crore in Q2FY24. It shows up in a screener for companies with net cash flows improving over the past two years.

With ambitions to foray into semiconductor manufacturing, Kaynes signed an MoU with the Karnataka Government on August 24. The agreement involves an investment of Rs 3,750 crore to set up a Semiconductor Assembly and Testing (OSAT) facility and a Printed Circuit Board (PCB) manufacturing plant. The management plans to start production in both plants by the end of 2024 and expects the benefit to flow in from H2FY25. 

3. South Indian Bank: 

This bank’s stock price fell by 1.5% on Thursday, following its business update. The decline was likely due to the rising cost of funds for the bank, due to a falling CASA (current account savings account) ratio and slowing credit growth. The stock had jumped by 11.2% over the past month, according to Trendlyne’s Technicals. The company was also recently in the news for the appointment of P R Seshadri as its new CEO & MD following RBI’s approval.

SIB’s provisional Q2FY24 update has recorded a 10.3% YoY surge in gross advances to Rs 74,975 crore. Similarly, total deposits climbed by 9.8% YoY. By the end of Q2FY24, CASA deposits stood at Rs 31,162 crore. The bank's credit growth in FY24-25E is expected to be around 12-13%. Moves to stabilise the liability mix, adjust interest rates on 65% of deposits, launch new retail products, and improve yields are expected to boost profits by 10-20 basis points. The stock appears in a screener of companies with high interest payments compared to earnings.

The management expects net interest margins to rise by 20 bps to 3.5% by Q4FY24, partly from growth in high-yielding loans. The bank also aims for a 1% return on assets (RoA) by the end of FY24.

ICICI Securities says that the qualification of the new MD & CEO will be critical to the stock’s rerating. They see RBI’s approval for the appointment of P R Seshadri as a key positive for the bank. According to the brokerage, he played a crucial role in improving risk management at Karur Vysya Bank and achieving credit growth despite profitability pressures from rising NPAs. The broker maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.

4. TVS Motor: 

This two/three-wheeler manufacturer has fallen by 2.3% since announcing its September business update on Tuesday. The decline is on account of lower quarterly three-wheeler wholesales, which contracted by 15.7% YoY in Q2FY24. 

In September 2023, the company’s total wholesales rose by 6% YoY to 4 lakh units, and its electric vehicle (EV) wholesales surged 4X YoY to 20,356 units. TVS has also been seeing an increase in exports, registering an 8% growth in September despite a high base.

Taking note of the healthy response to EVs, TVS Motor launched its second electric scooter, TVS-X, for Rs 2.5 lakh. The recent launch of Apache RTR 310, priced at Rs 2.4-2.6 lakh, also indicates the company’s interest in catering to the premium lifestyle segment market. The company aims to gain market share by introducing multiple products in numerous segments. It is also expected to launch electric three-wheelers in the coming quarters, and has started exporting EVs to Nepal with plans to expand to other markets.

In Q1FY24, the automobile manufacturer’s net profit grew by 42.2% YoY to Rs 434.3 crore, beating Trendlyne Forecaster’s estimate by 6.9%. Its revenue also increased by 24.4% YoY. Even though TVS’ EBITDA margin has been in the range of 10% for the past eight quarters, the management hopes to improve it further through a better product mix, price hikes, and a focus on premiumization. The company features in a screener for stocks with improving cash flow and good durability.

Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ call on TVS on the back of new launches and a gradual revival in export volumes. Analysts expect a healthy festive season and believe that the company will see robust traction in volumes, backed by its product portfolio.

5. Marico

This FMCG company has fallen by over 5.9% since the announcement of its business update on Thursday. Marico reported a low single-digit YoY volume growth in Q2FY24. It’s domestic volumes grew by 3% YoY in Q1FY24. The company attributed weak rural demand as the reason for this muted volume growth. Parachute Coconut Oil and Saffola Edible Oils’ volumes (contributing to around 37% and 31% of the total revenue) also grew in the low-single digits. 

Marico highlighted that its consolidated revenue has moderated during the quarter due to price corrections in its key domestic portfolio. In Q1FY24, the company’s revenue dropped by 2.1% YoY to Rs 2,523 crore, driven by price cuts taken in its Saffola Edible Oils segment. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, its revenue is expected to grow 3.4% YoY in Q2FY24. The company is set to declare its Q2 results on October 30.

The FMCG company’s management said that the recent surge in food prices and below-normal rainfall in some regions have dampened rural demand. According to Saugata Gupta, the MD and CEO of the firm, “Factors such as retail inflation dropping to sub-5% levels, late pickup in monsoons, hike in kharif crop MSPs (minimum support price) and higher government spending give us hope for a gradual recovery in rural sentiment”. He added that Marico targets a volume growth of around 8% in the medium term. 

The company’s share price touched a new 52-week high on Tuesday after ICICI Securities upgraded its rating to ‘Buy’ and raised the target price to Rs 670. The brokerage is optimistic about the company's efforts to accelerate expansion while maintaining its market share. As a result, Marico features in a screener of stocks where brokers have upgraded recommendations or target prices in the past three months.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
06 Oct 2023
Market closes higher, Valiant Laboratories’ shares debut at a 15.9% premium

Trendylne Analysis

Nifty 50closed at 19,653.50 (107.8, 0.6%), BSE Sensexclosed at 65,995.63 (364.1, 0.6%) while the broader Nifty 500closed at 17,293.60 (97.8, 0.6%). Market breadth is in the green. Of the 1,954 stocks traded today, 1,237 showed gains, and 665 showed losses.

Indian indices extended the gains from the afternoon session and closed in the green, with the Nifty 50 closing at 19,654. The volatility index, Nifty VIX, dropped by 5.9% and closed at 10.3 points. Ujjivan Small Finance Bank's total deposits grew by 43% YoY to Rs 29,134 crore in Q2FY24, while advances rose 27% YoY to Rs 29,134 crore.

Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 closed in the green, following the benchmark index. Nifty Realty and Nifty Pharma closed higher than Thursday’s closing levels. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, realty emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of over 2.7%.

Most European indices trade in the green. US indices futures trade higher, indicating a positive start. The data released by the German Federal Statistical Office indicated that German factory orders in August rose 3.9% MoM against the estimates of 1.8%. German factory orders in July contracted by 11.7% MoM.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like Suven Pharmaceuticals, Gujarat Ambuja Exports, Suzlon Energy and Tata Investment Corp are in the overbought zone.

  • Mahindra Holidays & Resorts rises over 7% in trade today. The company ranks high on Trendlyne’s Checklist, scoring 59.1%. It also features in a screener of consistent highest-return stocks over five years.

  • Bharat Heavy Electricals rises as it wins two arbitration proceedings against Jaiprakash Power Ventures. This led the company to bag contracts for the 660 MW Jaypee Nigrie Thermal Power Project and the 250 MW Bina Thermal Power Plant. The company appears in a screener of stocks with improving RoA.

  • Dabur India's management expects its revenue to grow in the mid to high single digits in Q2FY24. It also expects net profit to increase proportionally. The company features in a screener of stocks with low debt.

  • PB Fintech falls as 1.1 crore shares (a 2.5% stake), amounting to Rs 871.2 crore, reportedly change hands in a bulk deal. SoftBank is the likely seller.

  • Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Indian Hotels Co with a target price of Rs 492, implying an upside of 16.3%. The brokerage believes the company is well-placed to benefit from the rising demand for travel in FY24, given its focus on expanding through the asset-light model, improving cash flows and strengthening of balance sheet. It expects the firm’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 27% over FY23-26.

  • Realty stocks like DLF, Godrej Properties, Sobha, Swan Energy and Brigade Enterprises are rising in trade. Barring Mahindra Lifespace Developers, all the other constituents of the broader sectoral index, Nifty Realty, are trading in the green.

  • HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Navin Fluorine International with a target price of Rs 5,368. This implies an upside of 44.3%. The brokerage believes the firm’s growth momentum is intact despite the resignation of its Managing Director, Radhesh Welling. It expects growth to be driven by long-term contracts, rising contribution from the high-margin business to the sales mix and capacity expansion.

  • Strides Pharma Science declines as reports suggest that 13.8 lakh shares (1.5% equity), amounting to Rs 69.1 crore, change hands in a large trade.

  • Valiant Laboratories’ shares debut on the bourses at a 15.9% premium to the issue price of Rs 140. The Rs 152.5 crore IPO has received bids for 29.8 times the total shares on offer.

  • Ujjivan Small Finance Bank surges as its total deposits grow by 43% YoY to Rs 29,134 crore in Q2FY24, while advances rise 27% YoY to Rs 29,134 crore.

  • InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo Airlines)rises as reports suggest that it will introduce a fuel charge of up to Rs 1,000 to offset the rising cost of aviation fuel. The fuel surcharge applies to both domestic and international routes and will take effect starting today. The company appears in a screenerof stocks with improving cash flow from operations.

  • HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Navin Fluorine Internationalwith a target price of Rs 5,368. This implies an upside of 44.3%. The brokerage believes the firm’s growth momentum is intact despite the resignation of its Managing Director, Radhesh Welling. It expects growth to be driven by long-term contracts, rising contribution from the high-margin business to the sales mix and capacity expansion.

  • Macquarie has an ‘Outperform’ rating on Jindal Steel & Power, Tata Steel and Hindalco, while it downgrades its rating on JSW Steel to ‘Neutral’. The brokerage believes that robust domestic demand and strong steel prices augur well for the steel companies.

  • Sun Pharmaceutical Industries rises as it announces the US FDA's acceptance of its new drug, Deuruxolitinib, used to treat adults with moderate to severe alopecia areata. It appears on a screener for stocks with strong annual EPS growth.

  • Foreign institutional investors sell stocks worth Rs 7,660.6 crore in the equity market over the past week, according to Trendlyne's FII dashboard. Meanwhile, index options witness the highest outflow of Rs 1.3 lakh crore from foreign investors.

  • Railtel Corp of India rises as it wins a work order worth Rs 68 crore from Jammu Smart City to commission a data centre and disaster recovery centre for the Integrated Command and Control Centre.

  • The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintains India's real GDP growth forecast for FY24 at 6.5% while CPI inflation for Q2FY24 has been raised to 6.4%. According to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, challenges to the future outlook include geopolitical tensions, potential global economic recession, and irregular monsoon.

  • KPI Green Energy rises as it bags multiple orders for the development of solar power projects, totalling 12.1 MW from domestic entities. The projects are expected to be completed in FY24 in various tranches. The company appears in a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

  • Kalyan Jewellers is rising after announcing its Q2FY24 business update, as its revenue increases by 27% YoY, led by robust momentum in footfalls across Indian and Middle Eastern markets. Revenue from its Indian operations climbs 32% YoY due to healthy same-store sales. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with improving RoA over the past two years.

  • Healthcare stocks like Aurobindo Pharma, Granules India, Alkem Laboratories and Dr Reddy's Laboratories are rising in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty Healthcare index are also trading in the green.

  • Adani Wilmar rises as its total standalone sales volumes grow by 11%, aided by growth in the industry essentials and food & FMCG segments. However, there's a 13% dip in standalone sales value due to a decline in the edible oil segment. The company appears in a screener of stocks with improving net cash flow.

  • RBI decides to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.5% during the Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

  • Lupin is rising as it receives tentative approval from the US FDA for its abbreviated new drug application for tolvaptan tablets. This generic variant of Otsuka Pharmaceutical's Jynarque tablets is used for the prevention of heart failure and hormone imbalance. According to IQVIA, the drug had an estimated annual sales of $287 million in the year ending August 2023.

  • Dolly Khannabuys a 0.1% stake in Talbros Automotive Componentsin Q2FY24. She now holds a 1.6% stake in the company.

  • Bajaj Financeis rising as its board of directors approves the issue of shares worth up to Rs 8,800 crore through a qualified institutional placement (QIP).

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Bajaj Finserv Ltd. (1,634.65, 5.97%), General Insurance Corporation of India (225.30, 5.18%) and Godrej Properties Ltd. (1,675.00, 4.73%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Vodafone Idea Ltd. (10.95, -2.23%), CG Power and Industrial Solutions Ltd. (418.75, -1.70%) and Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd. (2,845.50, -1.61%).

Movers and Shakers

18 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Godrej Industries Ltd. (719.10, 19.64%), Kalyan Jewellers India Ltd. (258.15, 10.13%) and Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Ltd. (433.80, 7.64%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were BASF India Ltd. (2,506.75, -1.54%), Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (772.85, -0.39%) and Rajesh Exports Ltd. (496.95, -0.21%).

Godrej Agrovet Ltd. (515.00, 7.36%) was trading at 15.2 times of weekly average. AstraZeneca Pharma India Ltd. (4,726.10, 4.93%) and Century Plyboards (India) Ltd. (653.40, 0.97%) were trading with volumes 12.8 and 10.4 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

19 stocks overperformed with 52 week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Bajaj Finance Ltd. (8,168.55, 4.05%), DLF Ltd. (548.70, 4.51%) and eClerx Services Ltd. (2,147.85, 6.21%).

6 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including PI Industries Ltd. (3,420.70, 1.03%) and Sterlite Technologies Ltd. (159.40, 0.28%). 1 stock slipped below their 200 SMA including BASF India Ltd. (2,506.75, -1.54%).

 
logo
The Baseline
05 Oct 2023
By Akshat Singh

Investors are constantly on the lookout for investment strategies that deliver outsize returns. Managing a portfolio that consistently outperforms its benchmark over time is a feat achieved by very few. Often, you will find ‘finfluencers’ on youtube claiming market-beating returns every time they invest. The reality of the stock market however, is that it is volatile, and there will be periods of negative as well as positive returns. 

One way to maximize returns is via screeners that automatically search for stocks that outperform on not one, or two but multiple metrics. The DVM score, for example, looks at several metrics across management quality, financial health, stock valuation, as well as several dozen technicals, to identify high-scoring stocks. With these scores, investors are able to shortlist higher quality stocks for investing. 

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyse one DVM screener - the ‘DVM - High Performing, Highly Durable Companies’ screener. This screener selects stocks from the Nifty 500 index that show strong financial durability, reasonable valuation, and positive momentum scores. It is optimised to highlight the top five stocks with the highest durability scores. 

The screener backtest checks for past returns generated, and ran from March 2013 to September 2023, evaluating this strategy’s quarterly performance against the Nifty 500 benchmark. The screener has given cumulative returns of 2,772.8% over 10 years and 6 months, with a CAGR of 37.4%. In contrast, the benchmark’s CAGR stands at 14.5 %.

The heatmap presents a period analysis, showcasing the strategy's quarterly returns from Q1FY14 to Q2FY24. The data reveals that this approach delivered positive returns in 29 out of 42 quarters. It also outperformed the Nifty 500 index in 30 of these 42 quarters. 

The strategy had its maximum drawdown of 29.9% in Q1FY23. The term maximum drawdown represents the biggest observed loss from a portfolio’s peak to its lowest point before a new peak is attained. This strategy is an automated one and did not have a stop loss set, so the drawdowns show the maximum loss potential under this approach. Introducing a stop loss can reduce periods of negative returns and lower maximum drawdowns.

The screener currently has stocks such as Great Eastern Shipping Co, Apar Industries, Natco Pharma, Maruti Suzuki India and Jindal Saw.

In the course of the backtest, Ceat gave the highest returns of 428.8%. On the other hand, Triveni Engineering & Industries’ stock price had the highest fall of 48.8%.  

Greenpanel and Jyothi Labs shine as top performers over the past two years

Greenpanel performs the best in the DVM screener over the past two years

Here, we look at stocks with the highest returns over the past two years from the DVM screener’s backtest. Greenpanel Industries was part of the screener from June 30, 2021, to June 30, 2022. During this period, it provided a return of 85.9%.

Meanwhile, Jyothy Labs entered the screener on June 30, 2023, and exited on September 22, 2023. In these three months, the company gave a return of 61.7%. This can be attributed to the rise in its net profit by 98.7% YoY to Rs 96.3 crore in Q1FY24, aided by increased rural demand. 

The tobacco major, Godfrey Phillips, remained in the screener for two quarters, from September 30, 2022, to March 31, 2023. In this duration, the company gave 58.5% returns. The company's decision in October 2022 to sell its chewing tobacco business and other trademarks allowed it to concentrate on the cigarette business. Consequently, its net profit surged by 70.3% YoY in Q3FY23 to Rs 199.2 crore.

Zydus Lifesciences, a pharmaceuticals major, was in the screener from September 30, 2022, to June 30, 2023. During this period, its stock price rose by 50.7%. On October 3, 2022, the company received the US FDA’s approval for its Mirabegron tablets, which are used to treat overactive bladder. This came with 180 days of shared generic drug exclusivity, caused the stock price to surge by 5.8%. 

Lastly, Kalyan Jewellers India, active in the screener for the past quarter, recently exited but not before registering a 46.7% return. The company’s net profit rose by 33.3% in Q1FY24 to Rs 143.9 crore, aided by expansions in northern regions of India and the UAE. 

Apar Industries and Jindal Saw post 300%+ returns in the past year

Apar Industries leads in one-year gain among active stocks

Let’s now focus on the yearly and quarterly price change % of stocks currently active in the screener. Apar Industries’ stock price rose by 353.1% in the past year and 66.9% in the past quarter. Since its inclusion in the screener on March 31, 2023, the firm has yielded a return of 101.6%. The company’s Q4FY23 net profit rose by 193.8% YoY, followed by a surge of 61.2% YoY in Q1FY24. 

The general industrials company, Jindal Saw, reported a stock price rise of 334.4% in the past year and 38.3% in the past quarter. The company posted net profit gains of 54.2X to Rs 263.1 crore in Q1FY24. On September 18, 2023, the company entered into a joint venture with Hunter Energy Services, a US-based company. As part of this collaboration, they will jointly invest $25 million (approx Rs 208.1 crore) to establish a threading plant in Maharashtra. The investment will replace imports estimated at $200 million per annum.

Meanwhile, Natco Pharma surged by 42.2% in the past year and 26.3% in the past quarter. The shipping company, Great Eastern Shipping Company, also rose by 63% in the past year and 13.8% in the past quarter. It has been active in the screener for the past quarter and has provided 9.2% returns in this period. Shipping stocks surged after global leaders announced a multinational rail and port agreement that would connect the Middle East and South Asia at the G20 summit. This led to the shipping stocks to surge by 12.2% in the past month.

Lastly, auto giant Maruti Suzuki India’s  share price rose by 20% in the past year and 8.4% in the past quarter. The company’s quarterly net profit increased by 143.7% YoY to Rs 2,525.2 crore in Q1FY24. 

In summary, the screening criteria of high returns and durability, results in stocks that can potentially deliver medium to long-term gains with moderate risk, as suggested by the max drawdown of 29.9%. Despite uncertainties like the COVID-19 pandemic, this screener gave a mean quarterly return of 10%. It also consistently held an average stock count of 4.7, implying diversified investment, except for Q1FY21 when it had no stocks. 

Investors should undertake quarterly portfolio reviews and adjustments according to the entries and exits of stocks. And keep in mind as always, that  past returns don't guarantee future outperformance.

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
05 Oct 2023
Market closes higher, Rites bags order worth $111 million (Rs 924 crore)

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 19,545.75 (109.7, 0.6%) , BSE Sensex closed at 65,631.57 (405.5, 0.6%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 17,195.80 (72.7, 0.4%), of the 1,952 stocks traded today, 1,203 were on the uptick, and 695 were down.

Indian indices extended the gains from the afternoon session and closed in the green, with the Nifty 50 closing at 19,546. The volatility index, Nifty VIX, dropped by 6.2% and closed at 10.9 points. India’s service PMI in September expanded to 61 against estimates of 59.5. India’s service PMI for August stood at 60.1.

Nifty Midcap 100 closed flat, while Nifty Smallcap 100 closed in the green, following the benchmark index. Nifty Media and Nifty IT closed higher than Wednesday’s closing levels. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, media emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of over 2%.

Most European indices trade in the red, except for England’s FTSE 100 trading flat. US indices futures trade lower, indicating a negative start. The data released by the French National Institute of Statistics and Economics indicated that France’s industrial production in August contracted by 0.3% MoM against estimates of a 0.4% decline.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that stocks like C.E. Info Systems, Kaynes Technology India, Suzlon Energy and Indian Overseas Bank are in the overbought zone.

  • NHPC shuts down all its power stations in Sikkim due to flash floods. NHPC's Teesta-V power stations (510 MW) and Teesta-VI HE Project (500 MW), situated in Teesta Basin, are the two affected projects.

  • Tata Motors is rising as its subsidiary, Tata Motors JLR UK, reports a 27.5% YoY sales growth in September to 8,125 units. The growth is due to the improvement in sales of Land Rover and Jaguar. It appears in a screener of newly affordable stocks with good financials and durability.

  • Rites is rising as it emerges as the lowest bidder in a tender floated by Bangladesh Railway, with an estimated value of $111 million (Rs 924 crore). The order involves the procurement of 200 broad-gauge passenger carriages for Bangladesh Railway.

  • Blue Star falls despite acquiring 15.1 crore shares in its subsidiary, Blue Star Climatech though a rights issue of shares at Rs 10 per share, amounting to Rs 151 crore. The company appears in a screener of stocks with low debt.

  • Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company falls as it issues shares via qualified institutional placements at Rs 1,180 each, which is at a discount to the floor price of Rs 1,200.5. The company has issued 1.7 crore shares, raising a total of Rs 2,000 crore. It appears in a screener of stocks with high debt.

  • Morgan Stanley notes Zomato's consistent performance in core business profitability. The firm's recent hike in platform fees has been well-received by its users. The brokerage maintains an 'Outperform' rating on Zomato, with a target price of Rs 125.

  • Plaza Wires' Rs 71.3 crore IPO gets bids for 161X the available 95 lakh shares on offer on the fourth day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 374.8X the available 13.2 lakh shares on offer.

  • Tata Consultancy Services rises after being chosen by the Georgia Department of Labor to replace its cloud-based unemployment insurance system. The company appears in a screener of stocks nearing their 52-week highs with significant volumes.

  • Healthcare Global Enterprisesacquires SRJ CBCC Cancer hospital in Indore from SRJ Health Care. The company plans to expand the hospital by adding 100 beds and upgrading its cancer diagnostic and treatment facilities. The hospital is expected to be operational in two years.

  • Hindalco Industries signs an MoU with Odisha Mining Corporation for a Rs 8,000 crore investment, in two phases. This deal ensures a long-term supply of bauxite ore for Hindalco's proposed two-million-tonne alumina refinery and 150-MW captive power plant in Kansariguda, Rayagada district.

  • BoB Capital Markets maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Bajaj Financewith a target price of Rs 9,105. This implies an upside of 15.5%. The brokerage believes the firm’s robust assets under management growth, efficient execution and diverse business model will enable it to fend off competition and manage asset quality risks. It expects the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 26.8% over FY23-25.

  • India’s Services PMI rises to 61 in September from 60.1 in August, driven by favourable demand conditions, new businesses and an increase in output volumes.

  • Capri Global Holdings sells a 0.5% stake in Indiabulls Housing Finance for approx Rs 42.9 crore in a bulk deal on Wednesday.

  • Marico is falling as it reports low-single-digit volume growth YoY in Q2FY24 due to weak rural demand. The company’s consolidated revenue has been marginally lower during the quarter, driven by price corrections in its key domestic portfolios.

  • Sobha is rising as its Q2FY24 sales rise by 48.1% YoY to reach a record high of Rs 1,723.8 crore. Its average price realisation per square foot also grows by 17.4% YoY to Rs 10,223. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with improving cash flow and good durability.

  • Emkay Global initiates coverage on Indian Hotels Co and Lemon Tree Hotels with a ‘Buy’ rating, and Chalet Hotels with a ‘Hold’. According to the brokerage, demand is expected to remain strong despite limited supply. It also predicts occupancy to remain high.

  • Nazara Technologies surges more than 5% as its subsidiary, NODWIN Gaming, acquires a 100% stake in PublishME for $2 million (approximately Rs 16.6 crore).

  • Media stocks like Nazara Technologies, Network 18 Media & Investments, Sun TV Network, TV18 Broadcast and Dish TV India are rising in trade. All the constituents of the broader sectoral index, Nifty Media, are also trading in the green.

  • Larsen & Toubro secures multiple orders worth Rs 2,500-5,000 crore. The orders involve the construction of a residential township in Bengaluru, a commercial tower in Hyderabad, and a super specialty hospital at the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur.

  • Prashant Pitti, Co-Founder & Executive Director of Easy Trip Planners, says that the festive season and the Cricket World Cup have resulted in a surge in demand, which is 72% higher this year. He also highlights that volumes on routes like Delhi-Ahmedabad have gone up by 89%.

  • Exide Industries rises as it acquires 11 crore share, amounting to Rs 340 crore, in its subsidiary Exide Energy Solutions (EESL). EESL plans to use this amount to fund its greenfield projects. The company appears in a screener of stocks with low debt.

  • Hindustan Aeronautics is rising after announcing that the Indian Air Force intends to procure an additional 97 light combat aircraft (LCA) Tejas fighter jets. This comes after the company completed delivering the first LCA Tejas twin-seater aircraft.

  • Porinju Veliyath buys a 1% stake in Kerala Ayurveda for approx Rs 1.6 crore in a bulk deal on Wednesday.

  • Macrotech Developers’ Q2FY24 pre-sales rise 12% YoY to Rs 3,530 crore, its highest-ever quarterly pre-sales. With this, it achieves nearly half of its pre-sales guidance for FY24. Its collections increase by 16% YoY, while its net debt declines 23.5% YoY to Rs 6,730 crore.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Zomato Ltd. (105.40, 4.62%), One97 Communications Ltd. (895.10, 3.71%) and InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. (2,473.40, 3.71%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Marico Ltd. (542.45, -4.98%), Punjab National Bank (77.10, -3.32%) and Union Bank of India (105.50, -2.72%).

Volume Shockers

15 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Infibeam Avenues Ltd. (19.70, 13.22%), SIS Ltd. (480.15, 9.61%) and eClerx Services Ltd. (2,022.25, 8.91%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Oberoi Realty Ltd. (1,091.05, -2.68%) and Linde India Ltd. (5,968.30, -0.05%).

Prestige Estates Projects Ltd. (671.30, 7.23%) was trading at 8.7 times of weekly average. Sumitomo Chemical India Ltd. (440.80, 5.43%) and Godrej Industries Ltd. (601.05, 3.06%) were trading with volumes 6.0 and 4.7 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

16 stocks hit their 52 week highs, while 2 stocks were underachievers and hit their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Balkrishna Industries Ltd. (2,585.25, 2.22%), Coromandel International Ltd. (1,166.10, 1.92%) and eClerx Services Ltd. (2,022.25, 8.91%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Navin Fluorine International Ltd. (3,695.60, -3.39%) and Adani Total Gas Ltd. (602.90, -1.28%).

7 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Sumitomo Chemical India Ltd. (440.80, 5.43%) and Bharat Dynamics Ltd. (1,001.65, 2.26%). 4 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. (976.60, -1.40%) and Dabur India Ltd. (550.75, -0.83%).

 
logo
The Baseline
04 Oct 2023
Five analyst picks this week
By Suhas Reddy

1. Minda Corp: 

SBI Securities gives this auto components manufacturer a 'Buy' rating with a target price of Rs 382, indicating an upside of 17.1%. The analysts are optimistic about the company due to its robust electric vehicles (EV) order book and smart key lock set. The total order wins stand at Rs 3,000 crore, of which Rs 750 crore is for battery chargers. 

Minda Corp’s management has guided a revenue growth of 20-25% over the next 2-3 years on the back of new product development, customer acquisition, and increasing exports. They also expect better efficiencies, streamlining of fixed costs and component localization initiatives to improve margins. They predict that demand will pick up in H2FY24, coinciding with the festive season. They are also positive about the improvement in semiconductor supplies due to new supplier management initiatives, and expect momentum to extend into the coming quarters. 

2. Global Health: 

Motilal Oswal initiates coverage on this healthcare facilities company with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 840, implying an upside of 13.4%. Analysts Tushar Manudhane, Sumit Gupta and Akash Manish Dobhada state that “the firm has been able to cater to requirements across therapeutics, making it a preferred choice among many patients”. This has enabled its net profit to grow at a CAGR of 47% over FY19-23, they add. 

The analysts expect this growth momentum to continue in the coming quarters, led by an increasing volume of patients, growth in international patients, and improving average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOD). They are also upbeat about the firm’s plans to increase capacities at its new hospitals in Lucknow and Patna. Overall, they are optimistic about the healthcare services provider’s growth prospects due to its robust business model and surplus cash. Manudhane, Gupta and Dobhanda expect the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 26% over FY23-25. 

3. PI Industries: 

Geojit BNP Paribas reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this agrochemicals company and  increases its target price to Rs 4,000. This indicates an upside of 17.9%.  According to analyst Anil R, the company’s standalone profit growth of 22.2% YoY to Rs 1,829 crore in Q1FY24 was led by robust CSM export contribution, from higher volumes and prices. “Favourable product mix and improved operating leverage expanded EBITDA margin in Q1FY24,” he says. 

The analyst expects exports to double in the coming 3-4 years on the back of government support, becoming a major revenue driver. He also remains positive about PI Industries’ plans to launch four new products in FY24, and its strong CMS export order book of $1.8 billion. Anil expects the focus on research and new acquisitions to grow the pipeline further. The management has planned a consolidated capex of Rs 900 crore for FY24, mainly for its agchem business.  

4. NTPC: 

ICICI Direct maintains a 'Buy' rating on this electric utilities company with a target price of Rs 300, indicating an upside of 27.6%. Analyst Chirag Shah holds an optimistic view as the company is the sole player that has added coal-based capacities over the past five years, reaching an impressive installed base of 73,000 MW. Notably, NTPC aims to achieve 45-50% of its capacity from non-fossil fuels by 2030.

Shah believes in the management's ability to reach 20,000 MW of renewable capacity by FY26, considering the company's current 3,300 MW of installed renewable capacity and 5,900 MW of projects under construction. He also highlights the company's efforts to diversify into emerging areas like green hydrogen and nuclear power.

Shah foresees generation growth at a CAGR of 11% over FY23-25 due to a higher power load factor (PLF) from increased electricity demand. However, he cautions that a slowdown in demand due to reduced economic activity could affect the company's PLF and profitability.

5. Brigade Enterprises: 

ICICI Securities maintains a 'Buy' rating on this realty company, with a target price of Rs 695, indicating an upside of 20.4%. Analysts Adhidev Chattopadhyay and Saishwar Ravekar are upbeat about the company's prospects due to its residential launch pipeline of 8 million square feet (msf) over the next 12 months, and significant land acquisitions with a gross development value (GDV) of Rs 53 billion.

The analysts predict residential sales bookings to reach Rs 45.8 billion in FY24 and climb to Rs 51.3 billion in FY25, fueled by its robust launch pipeline. They highlight the company's strategic land acquisitions in Bengaluru, Chennai, and Hyderabad, with GDVs of Rs 8 billion, Rs 10 billion, and Rs 35 billion, respectively.

The analysts also believe that the company's focus on achieving 100% occupancy by FY24 (currently at 84%) will be key to its success. They foresee a 16% net operating income by FY25, driven by the leasing of vacant spaces in Tech Gardens, Bengaluru, and the full operationalization of the Brigade Twin Towers office project in FY25.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)