We roll over our estimate to FY23E valuing the company at 7x of FY23E EV/EBITDA to arrive at target price of Rs, 1230 implying an upside of 18% from CMP.

JMC Projects: JMC Projects (JMC) reported revenue of INR 13.5bn (+44%/+26% YoY/QoQ), 6% ahead of our estimate. However, EBITDA/APAT missed our estimate by ~7% on higher commodity prices and COVID-related expenses. JMC registered an exceptional year with order wins of INR 84.4bn, taking the order book (OB) to INR 140bn. The momentum has continued in 1QFY22 with intake of INR 30bn until now. Despite the lockdown, labour availability is at 90% of Mar-21. Provided COVID situation does not deteriorate further, management expects 15-20% revenue growth. We reiterate BUY with an increased target price of INR 126, given (1) a healthy order book (~4x FY21 revenue) and (2) comfortable balance sheet. We have tweaked our FY21 estimate to incorporate continued momentum in the order intake and higher commodity prices. Key risks: (1) delay in restructuring/monetisation of BOT assets and (2) increase in leverage. Asian Paints: APNTs topline delivery (43.5% YoY) exceeded expectations (HSIE: 35%). Growth was all-round. Decorative business clocked 48/46% volume/value growth, underpinned by (1) strong pent-up demand in paints and adjacencies (waterproofing) and 2) pick-up in metros and Tier 1/2 cities. Industrial subsidiaries too delivered a strong recovery. GM crack (down 266bp YoY at 43.2%; in-line) was a foregone conclusion, given runaway RM inflation. Strong cost control cushioned EBITDAM (+128bp at 19.8%; in-line). While the double whammy of the second wave and RM inflation is expected to be a drag in 1Q, demand normalisation trend over the year is unlikely to change meaningfully for a category like paints. Hence, we marginally cut our FY22/23 revenue/EPS...

Further re-rating imminent

We recommend to BUY with a target price of Rs.800/share, valuing the company at 5.5x of its FY22E EV/Ebitda.

Birla Corporation Ltd. (BCL) reported a strong beat in Q2FY21 led by better than expected volumes and realisation.

We expect 10.2%/ 12.6%/ 16.9% revenue/ EBITDA/ APAT CAGR over FY20-23E led by -4.1%/ 17.7%/ 16.0% volume growth and 1.5%/ 0.5%/ 1.0% cement realization growth in FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E. We increase our revenue/ EBITDA estimates by 9.0%/ 15.0% for FY21E considering H1FY21 results. Accordingly, we increase our APAT estimates by 39.4% for FY21E. We broadly maintain FY22E and introduce FY23E. We factor 3.9mtpa Mukutban (Maharashtra) expansion to commence by end of Sept'21 (in line with management...

A single bench of the Honble High Court at Calcutta vide its order dated 18th September, 2020 in a probate proceeding to which the Company is not a party has restrained Mr. Harsh V. Lodha, Non-Executive Director and Chairman of the Company from holding any office in the Company.

Birla Corporation (BCL) is one of the leading cement producers with 15.5 million tonne per annum (mtpa) capacity, spread mainly across central, north and eastern India.

Disruption due to nationwide lockdown and significant disturbances in key markets and manufacturing centres led to contraction of Revenue/Ebitda/APAT of the company. Company reported de-growth in Revenue/Ebitda/APAT by 35%/39% and 53% on YoY basis.

increase in NSR sequentially owing to pricing tailwinds in operatingmarketsandhighershareoftrademix(+1015% shift in mix towards trade segment). However, operating marketsofBCORPwitnessedstablepricingwhiletrademix hasbeenhighhistoricallyforthecompany(8085%ofsales) leavinglessscopeforincrementalimprovement. Cost optimization measures and stable pricing translated into EBITDA/te of Rs 981 (5% y/y). Absolute EBITDA...

We are initiating coverage on Birla Corporation Limited (BCL) with a BUY recommendation and a Target Price of Rs 854, which implies 50% upside from the current levels

Birla Corp's debt had risen with the acquisition of RCCPL assets. The company has also undertaken greenfield capacity expansion at an estimated cost of ~| 2500 crore in Maharashtra. This project would be funded by debt to the extent of 70-75%, leading to further addition in debt. The decision to keep the Kundanganj brownfield expansion on hold would help keep leverage from increasing further. We expect debt to peak in FY21 (refer...

(est. of 3.44 MT) which was down by 13% y/y due to lockdownmeasures.However,utilizationlevelforBCORP remainedsublimeat93%forQ4FY20.Furtherallplants of BCORP except Raebareli and Durgapur have been...

29 January 2020 EBITDA/ton was up 33% YoY (-12% QoQ) in 3QFY20, led by higher realizations (+4% YoY) and cost savings (+2% YoY). While BCORP witnessed some decline in trade sales due to seasonality, it remains focused on higher trade/premium cement sales and cost efficiencies over the longer term. We maintain our FY20/21 estimates and rating. Cement realizations increased 4% YoY (-1.4% QoQ) to INR4,743/t. BCORP witnessed a sharp decline in prices in the eastern region. Total cost/ton was up 1% QoQ (-2% YoY) at INR4,141 (3% above our estimate of INR4,040). Note that consumption of higher-cost clinker inventory offset the benefit of lower power & fuel and freight costs. EBITDA/ton declined 12% QoQ (+33% YoY) to INR859 (9% below our estimate of INR946). EBITDA stood at INR2.9b (+42% YoY, -6% QoQ) v/s our estimate of INR3.2b. PAT stood at INR815m (3x of FY19), 10% below our estimate of INR903m.

Birla Corp has a strong presence on the retail front owing to its distribution network and focus on trade sales, which have a share in excess of 80% of total volume sales. Further, the company has been pushing more of premium cement via its trade channels and higher ad spends. This has led premium products to form 35-50% of trade sales. In turn, this has enabled the company to improve its realisations, which have growm at 6% CAGR over FY16-19, putting the company in the ranks of industry giants, UltraTech and ACC. This, combined with 19% volume CAGR has contributed to...

1HFY20 performance: Sales/EBITDA/PAT increased 13%/ 61%/2.3x YoY. Operating cash flows post working capital and taxes declined 5% YoY to INR4.1b, led by an increase in working capital due to higher receivables (+2...

volumes increased 13.2% YoY to 3.85mt. Cement realizations rose 1.3% YoY to INR4,625/t. Consequently, EBITDA/t increased 6% YoY to INR804. 5 May 2019 margin improving 0.9ppYoY to 16.5%. PAT came in at INR1.28b (-2% YoY, our estimate of INR1.05b). For FY19, volumes grew 10% to 13.

Birla Corporation Limited (BCorp) reported substantial rise in its Q4FY18 financial results on back of robust realization and volume growth.

Birla Corporation Limited (BCorp) reported a mixed bags of results in its Q3FY18 financial results. Net revenue and cement sales volume exceeded our estimates, however EBITDA and net profit...