NTPC Ltd. share price forecast

CreditAccess Grameen: CreditAccess Grameen (CREDAG) reported steady operating performance with NII/PPOP growth of 35%/34% YoY. Disbursements growth was muted during the quarter (-63% QoQ) due to disruptions related to transitioning to RBI's new guidelines on MFI lending, a trend witnessed across other MFI lenders as well. Portfolio stress continued to recede further, with PAR-0 now at 3% (from the peak of 30.6% in Q1FY22) and GNPA for the consolidated entity at 3.1%, indicating near-normalised credit costs, going forward. Having fixed the issues around implementation of the new MFI guidelines, the management remains upbeat about increasing the pace of new customer additions and loan growth guidance of 24-25%. We tweak our FY23E/FY24E earnings estimates for higher loan growth and maintain BUY, with a revised TP of INR1,047 (3.0x Mar-24 ABVPS). Our implied multiple reflects CREDAG's high cross-cycle potential RoE and a very conservative approach to an inherently risky business. CDSL: CDSL posted a weak quarter, primarily on the margin front, while revenue growth of 2.6% QoQ was better than expected but the pace of growth has moderated (six-quarter CQGR of 8%). Revenue growth was impacted by a drop in transaction charges (market activity) and online data charges (lower KYC fetches). The significant jump in annual issuer charges, boosted by higher retail folios, was a surprise, but it's an annuity revenue stream and will support growth for FY23E. The pace of BO account addition has moderated (incremental addition down 35% YoY) but CDSL continues to gain market share (~71%). The margin disappointment was due to higher bonus pay-out...

Sobha: Sobha (SDL) reported the highest-ever annual presales of 4.9msf (+22% YoY), valued at INR 38.7bn. Bengaluru accounted for 68% of total presales volume (vs 67% in FY23). SDL expects contribution from Bengaluru to come down to 55% over the next few years. The residential launch pipeline stands at 13.2msf, with 61% of launches planned for the Bengaluru market. SDL recorded the best-ever cash inflow of INR 12.9bn (+32%/+22% YoY/QoQ) on the back of best-ever residential cash collection of INR 10.6bn. This resulted in overall net debt reduction by 13% QoQ to INR 23.4bn. In FY22, SDL took an average price hike of 6% YoY and it expects a similar hike in FY23. On the back of this and increasing interest rate, it expects volume to remain flat in FY23, with presales value growth in low double digits. Currently, ~80% of its customers opt for housing loans. We maintain BUY, with a reduced TP of INR 902/sh to factor in rising cost of capital resulting in higher WACC. NTPC: Generation/sales increased 3.0%/2.4% YoY to 79.9/73.9bn units in Q4FY22 on higher YoY base, led by improved demand. Coal PAF improved marginally in Q4 to 89.6%, vs 89.1% YoY, but coal PLF was down at 76.1%, vs 77.1% YoY. Under-recovery came in at INR4.5bn, vs INR6.0bn YoY, while surcharge income declined to INR1.6bn, vs INR6.2bn YoY. Consequently, after adjusting for one-offs, adj PAT increased 19% YoY to INR45.6bn, above our estimate. Overdue reduced to INR42.7bn vs INR56.6bn YoY and INR45bn QoQ. NTPC has 3.4GW of RES capacity under...

NTPC has set aggressive renewables long term capacity addition target of 60000 MW by 2032, which was earlier pegged at 30000 MW. The company currently has 6500 MW of renewable projects in various stages. Out of this, 1600 MW has been commercialised and ~3500 MW will come under commissioning in the next 18 months. The company expects to spend ~40% of total capex planned for FY22, FY23 on renewable projects. This share is going to further increase from FY25 beyond, which indicates very strong addition in renewable portfolio from FY24 onwards The company is...

NTPC has 17% of total installed capacity in India with 23% generation share The company's vision is to become a 130 GW+ company by 2032 of which 60 GW would be contributed by renewable energy Q3FY22 Results: NTPC reported operationally strong Q3FY22 results. Generation...

The base deficit rose marginally to 0.4% in Dec-21 while peak deficit fell to 0.1% vs 0.6% MoM, with the merchant rate at INR3.2/unit. As of Jan-22, discoms' outstanding dues have risen to INR1066 bn (+18%/+8% on YoY/MoM). We expect power demand to revive during Feb-Mar-22. NTPC, PGCIL, and CESC are our top picks. Generation growth remained subdued in Dec-21 at 2.5% YoY due to low temperatures at the onset of peak winter, which dampened power demand. In the MTD Jan-22 period as well, demand growth stood at 1.5% YoY, mainly due to a partial lockdown imposed across states due to rising COVID cases. Lower power demand and improved coal supply led to a 3x increase in coal stocks across stations compared to the critical level of Oct-21. Coal dispatches to the power sector surged by 41.5% YoY to 63.3 MT in Dec-21.

While the Centre has dropped the DBT scheme from the proposed bill, other reforms like delicencing and smart metering can be the silver lining that will revive the sector. NTPC, PGCIL, and CESC are our top picks. Given the onset of winter and muted power demand, generation growth remained subdued in Nov-21 at 2.1% YoY. During MTD Dec-21 as well, demand growth has been low at 2% YoY. Lower power demand and improved coal supply led to a 1.5x increase in coal stocks across stations compared to the critical Oct-21 level. Coal dispatches to power sector surged by 39.3% YoY to 60.3 MT in Nov-21. The base/peak deficit fell to 0.2%/0.6% in Nov-21 vs 1.1%/3.2% MoM, which led to 62% MoM fall in merchant rates in the same month to INR3.1/unit. As of Dec-21, discoms' outstanding dues had risen to INR990 bn (-22% YoY but +2% MoM).

On the operational front, NTPC's gross power generation for the quarter ended September 2021 was 74.811 billion units compared to 67.673 billion units (BU) in quarter ended September 2020. The company's total installed capacity increased to 66,900 MW as on 30 September 2021 as against 62,910 MW as on 30 September 2020. Domestic coal supply for its plants in the September quarter stood at 43.39 million tonnes, up from 38.21 million tonnes in the same period a year ago. Coal production (from captive mines) in the September 2021 quarter stood at 2.79 million metric tonnes (MMT), up from 0.77 MMT in the same period a year ago. Coal imports of the firm...

NTPC Ltd. owns and operates power generation plants that supply power to state electricity boards throughout India. The company generates power from coal, gas, liquid fuel, hydro, solar, nuclear, wind and renewable energy...

GAIL (India): Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a price target of INR 210 is based on 9% CAGR expansion in gas transmission volume over FY22-24E to 136mmscmd on the back of (1) increase in domestic gas production, (2) increase in demand of RLNG, and (3) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India. Q2FY22 EBITDA/APAT were 34/47% above our estimates, owing to a 7% higher revenue, lower-than-expected raw material cost, higher-than-expected other income, and lower-than-expected tax outgo. JSW Energy: Net generation increased 2.4% YoY to 6.8bn units, led by strong generation across the Vijayanagar and Ratnagiri plants; it was partially offset by lower output across Barmer stations and hydro plant. Accordingly, PLF declined for the Barmer stations and hydro plant, while it improved for Vijayanagar and Ratnagiri stations. EBITDA was flat but PAT decreased 5.5% YoY to INR3.4bn due to increased other expenses and tax expenses. JSW Energy expects to add 15.5GW of RES capacity by FY30, of which 2.5GW would be added by FY24. It has signed a PPA for 2.25GW of these capacities until date. It plans to venture into the green hydrogen business and is carrying out scoping for a pilot project. It has also signed MoUs with Maharashtra for resources for 5GW wind and 1.5GW hydro pumped storage projects, which are in nascent stages. JSW Energy's current net D/E stands at 0.4x, while net debt/EBITDA stands at 2.0x. We maintain SELL along with our TP of INR118/share, as the stock price has risen steeply to INR346, which is unjustifiable to...

HSIE Results Daily NTPC: Generation/sales increased 19.2%/19.3% YoY to 71.7bn/66.6bn unit in Q1FY22 on the back of demand recovery. Coal PAF, however, declined in Q1FY22 to 94% vs 96% YoY, but coal PLF was up at 70% in Q1FY22 vs 58.2% YoY. Underrecovery in Q1FY22 came in at INR1.9bn. After adjusting for previous periods and one-off items, adjusted PAT came in at INR31.6bn above our estimate. Debtors (>45 days) increased to INR90bn vs INR65bn QoQ during the second corona wave. NTPC plans to add 15GW of RES capacity by FY24 and another 45GW by FY32. We expect the companys standalone PAT to grow at 9% CAGR over FY21-23E, led by improvement in PLF, PAF, and regulated equity. The RoE shall expand from 13.2% in FY21 to 13.7% in FY23 and generate an FCF of INR175bn over FY22-23E. Management plans to monetise its trading arm and renewable business, going ahead, to enhance the value proposition for stakeholders. We maintain a BUY rating and FY23 P/BV (consolidated) TP of INR 143/share as the stock is currently trading at an attractive FY23 consolidated P/BV of 0.7x and a PE of 6.0x.

NTPC's 1QFY22 results highlight a steady performance given the regulated business and aided by other income. S/A adj. PAT (excl. FC u/r) was broadly flat YoY at INR33.1b. NTPC has set a RE capacity target of 60GW by 2032. While this may seem ambitious (implying 55.5GW p.a. of RE additions over the next 11 years), the co. has taken steps to improve its renewable footprint. ~3GW of renewable capacities are under construction and expected to be commissioned over the next two years. Even as the co. gradually scales up...

Net up 18% thanks to lower EO exp, lower tax and lower MI Consolidated net sales (including other operating income) of NTPC for the quarter ended Jun 2021 has increased 14% to Rs 29888.02 crore. Sales for the quarter ended 30 June 2021 include (a) Rs 25.27 crore (30 June 2020: Rs 20.39 crore) on account of deferred tax materialized which is recoverable from beneficiaries as per Regulations, 2019; (b) Rs 40. 10...

NTPC has 17% of total installed capacity in India with 23% generation share The company's vision is to become a 130 GW+ company by 2032 of which 60 GW would be contributed by renewable energy Q1FY22 Results: NTPC reported Q1FY22 results, which were below estimates on...