NTPC Ltd. share price target

We see a potential upside to the sector’s ~86GW thermal capacity addition requirement, supported by stronger-than-expected power demand growth – base case now at ~6% vs. ~5% earlier.

We recommend a BUY with a Target price of Rs 363/share, implying ~10% upside.

prospects : NTPC delivered a healthy Q1FY27 performance with regulated equity growing 9% YoY to 1.22 lakh crore, supported by over 8 GW of capacity additions over the last 12 months and improving operational performance (PLF of 76.7%, +155 bps YoY). NTPC plans to invest 16.86 lakh crore over FY2737, comprising 7.24 lakh crore in renewables, 4.63 lakh crore in nuclear, 3.09 lakh crore in hydro & pumped storage, 1.28 lakh crore in thermal, 0.52 lakh crore in mining and 0.10 lakh crore in BESS. This investment supports its long-term targets of 136 GW...

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock

NTPC’s standalone revenue for 1QFY27 came in at INR438b (+3% YoY, +2% QoQ), 4% ahead of our estimate. APAT stood at INR51b (+16% YoY, -3% QoQ), beating our estimate by 17% as other expenses came in 20% below our estimate and 22% lower YoY.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

NTPC delivered a healthy FY26 performance with standalone adjusted PAT at INR195bn, up 8% YoY, supported by a 4% increase in regulated equity and improvement in coal plant PAF by 20bps to 90.1% in FY26. Core profitability remained strong with implied FY26 core RoE (excluding other income) improving to 17.4% versus 16.5% YoY (led by better plant efficiency). Looking ahead, NTPC has reiterated an annual capacity addition target of ~10GW across FY27EFY29E, with NGEL targeting ~8GW annually, while the...

Strong capacity pipeline and energy transition drive visibilty About the stock: NTPC is India's largest power generation company with a total installed NTPC has 17% of total installed capacity in India with ~24% generation share The company's vision is to become a 244 GW+ company by 2037 of which ~120...

NTPC has positioned itself as India’s major provider of, firm & dispatchable power, in a grid that is shifting toward variable renewable generation. The company’s battery energy storage programme (BESS) is an important step through which NTPC intends to convert its legacy thermal infrastructure into a flexible, hybrid power platform capable of serving round-the-clock and peak-demand contracts that pure renewable developers cannot fulfil.

Capacity-Driven Earnings Growth. Earnings linked to capacity commissioning. ~15.5% regulated ROE under cost-plus framework. Rising regulated equity driving profit visibility.

NTPC Ltd owns and operates electricity generation plants that supply power to state electricity boards in India. The company generates power from coal, gas, liquid fuel, nuclear, hydro, solar, wind and other renewable energy sources. It has an installed...

The company's vision is to become a 244 GW+ company by 2037 of which ~120 GW would be contributed by renewable energy. Q3FY26 performance: NTPC reported muted earnings as lower demand and grid restrictions impacted coal PLF by 495 bps in Q3FY26 to come in at 71%. The company reported gross standalone generation of 87.3 billion units (BU) down 4.3% YoY while energy sold declined 4.8% YoY to 81 BUs. However, on account of higher YoY tariff the standalone revenue for the quarter stood at 40843.8 crore down 1.2% YoY. The PLF for Q3FY26 at 71% whereas the same for the gas-based...

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Standalone reported PAT in 3Q was in line with our estimates, favored by lowerthan-expected finance costs and higher-than-expected other income. However, Adj. PAT came in 6% below our estimates.

NTPC is reportedly planning a large coal-to-synthetic natural gas (SNG) facility with a capacity of 5-10m tonnes per year (link). Producing SNG from its own coal would lower dependence on imported LNG, which is prone to price and supply volatility.

*over or under performance to benchmark index NTPC Ltd owns and operates electricity generation plants that supply power to state electricity boards in India. The company generates power from coal, gas, liquid fuel,...

Adjusted PAT in 2QFY26 was 4% above our estimate, mainly supported by higher-thanestimated other income. EBITDA missed our estimate as weak power demand led to soft generation trends.

The company's vision is to become a 244 GW+ company by 2037 of which ~120 GW would be contributed by renewable energy. Q2FY26 performance: NTPC reported muted earnings as extended monsoon and grid restrictions impacted coal PLF by 627 bps in Q2FY26 to come in at 66%. The company reported gross standalone generation of 83.2 billion units (BU) down 6% YoY while energy sold declined 6.24% YoY to 77.1 BU. Hence the standalone revenue for the quarter stood at 39167 crore down 3% YoY. The PLF for Q2FY26 at 66% whereas the same for the gas-based stations PLF was at 6.8%. The...

NTPC has set ambitious expansion targets over the next decade. Earlier this year, the company raised its capacity target to 149GW by FY32 (vs. 130GW earlier).

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.