NTPC's risk averse regulated business model provides earnings visibility (expect a 19% PAT CAGR over FY2021E-FY2023E) as robust commercialisation target (5-6 GW annually) would drive strong growth in regulated equity base. We expect gradual re-rating led by improving operational performance (PAF at 90% plus and higher PLF for coal-based power plants), 15% CAGR guidance over FY21-23 in regulated equity, and better mix of renewable energy to allay concern of ESG. Management is confident to reduce receivable to Rs. 16,000 crore by Q4FY2021 (versus Rs. 19,164 crore in Q2FY2021) as discoms are expected to clear dues of power generation...

NTPC Q2 PAT declines 7.74% to Rs 3436 cr and board approves share buyback worth Rs 2,275 cr, in line with the estimates The board of directors of NTPC on Monday (26 October) approved a buyback proposal. The company aims to buyback upto 19.78 crore shares (2% of the total number of fully paid-up equity shares) at Rs 115 per share. The buyback will be on a proportionate basis through a tender offer route. The company has fixed 13 November 2020 as the record date for the purpose of ascertaining the eligibility of...

Reported revenues came in at | 24677.1 crore up 8.4% YoY. This was in line with our expectations. Generation came in to the tune of 67.6 billion units (BUs) in Q2FY21 vs. expectations of 67.3 BUs. On the other hand, energy sold came in 62.8 BUs vs. expectations of 62.6 BUs. PLFs of coal plants were at 64.3% in Q2FY21 vs. 58.2% in Q1FY21. As of Q2FY21, commercial capacity was at 50355 MW whereas installed capacity was at 51155 MW. The company has also made strong progress on the coal mining side as it expects to mine 15 million tonnes (MT) in FY21. The management has...

NTPC has announced a Buy Back scheme for an aggregate amount not exceeding INR 2,276 crores offering 197,891,146 shares at a price of INR 115 per share. The buyback will be on a proportionate basis under the tender offer route. Company has fixed 13th November, 2020 as the record date for the purpose of ascertaining the eligibility of shareholders for Buyback of equity shares. Offering to Small Shareholders (up to 2 lakhs)...

NTPC's Q2FY2021 PAT at Rs. 3,505 crore (up 7.4% y-o-y) was in-line with our estimate of Rs. 3,502 crore as higher-than-expected higher surcharge income at Rs. 657 (up 20% q-o-q) and increased regulated equity (up 19.3% y-o-y) was offset by FC underrecoveries of Rs. 271 crore. Management has guided for strong commercialisation of 5,566MW for FY2021, 7,336MW for FY2022, and 5,016 for FY2023 and expects fixed cost under-recoveries to reduce to Rs. 200 crore-220 crore by March 2021. NTPC board has approved buyback of equity shares not exceeding 19.8 crore shares (2% of the total paid up equity share capital) at a price of Rs. 115/share (29% premium...

NTPC Ltd. owns and operates power generation plants that supply power to state electricity boards throughout India. The company generates power from coal, gas, liquid fuel, hydro, solar, nuclear, wind and renewable energy...

minority interest de-grew by 6% to Rs 2890 crore in Q1 June 2020 over Q1 June 2019. NTPC reported exceptional cost of Rs 836.76 crore in Q1 June 2020. The PSU enterprise said that in accordance with the announcement of Government, to allow a rebate of 20%-25% on the capacity charges, the company has approved Rs 1510.47 crore for the 2020-21. During the...

Maintain NTPC's reported S/A PAT (including the impact of a rebate) was down 5% YoY to INR24.7b (v/s our est. PLF of coal-based plants fell to 58.2%, v/s 73.9% in the previous year, weighed by lower power demand. Interest cost at S/A was also impacted by INR2.1b on account of the The co.s numbers also included an INR2.2b CSR contribution in the current quarter related to COVID-19 care packages NTPC plans to reach ~130GW capacity by 2032. NTPC expects its capitalization run-rate to be at 56GW p.a. for the next three to four years. The balance is to be paid only when DISCOMs withdraw their NTPC has discussed the possibility of a buyback in its previous board meetings Outstanding overdues have reduced to INR145b (currently) from INR164b at June-end. This provides strong With the pickup in capitalization, which was partly hampered due to coal availability issues, we expect a regulated equity CAGR of ~11% over FY2023.

NTPC reported operationally decent Q4FY20 results. Despite lockdown impact in March 2020, the company posted better generation data vis--vis expectations. NTPC met its capacity addition target in FY20 and has aggressive additions plans in FY21-22E. Optically, PAT looks below estimates, which is on account of higher tax outgo on account of settlement...

Maintain Adj. for one-offs and FC u/r, NTPC's S/A PAT came in at INR33.0b (4% up YoY and 8% higher than our est. Reported PAT, however, came in at INR12.5b (down 71% YoY) given the the Vivad se Vishwas scheme and b) INR8b impact on account of adj. Overall, FY20 JV profit declined to INR4b in FY20 v/s INR6.7b in FY19 on account of losses at NTPC expects capitalization momentum to continue and targets ~5.9GW for commercialization in FY21. We remain conservative and build-in commercialization of 3.6GW Muted power demand, coupled with production ramp-up at Coal Indias mines, has led to an increase in coal stocks at power plants. However, production at these mines has improved, leading to recovery in coal stocks at For FY20, FC u/r stood at ~INR2.5b (v/s INR8b in FY19). This provides strong With the pickup in capitalization, which was partly hampered due to coal availability issues, we expect a regulated equity CAGR of ~12% over FY2023.

Continues to remain at attractive valuations; Maintain Buy NTPC reported Q4 numbers which were better than expectations, with an adjusted PAT of Rs 38bn. The drop in PLFs at 67% in FY20, compared to 77% in FY19, reflects the trend in the industry, but is still better than the industry PLF of 56% in FY20. It has commercialized 5.2GW in FY20, while maintaining a target commercialization of 5.9GW in FY21. NTPC also plans to achieve 5.5GW of capacity addition in FY21. Its capex target is Rs 210bn in FY20....

The first tranche of the Rs20tn package' mentioned by the Prime minister was announced today, comprising measures worth Rs6tn. This tranche included a Rs900bn loan to state discoms by govt-owned PFC and REC to pay off the genco dues. The loan will be provided against the Rs940bn receivables of the discoms. The loans will be secured against receivables, and additionally guaranteed by respective state govts. The liquidity will be infused within a couple of days by offering concessional loans to state electricity discoms, which would be 150 bps lower than the usual lending rates by the PFC and REC. while the loan rate would be concessional, it will vary from utility-to-utility depending...

22 April 2020 NTPC has met its target of 5.3GW of commercialization for FY20, marking the highest ever commercialization for the company in a single year (Exhibit 1). We note the recovery of RoE / fixed charges for these plants depends on NTPCs ability to operate and declare availability. Thus, the company is insulated from power demand conditions (which, given the current scenario, could lead to lower offtake from these plants). Muted power demand, coupled with production ramp-up at Coal Indias mines, has resulted in an increase in coal stocks at power plants. In 1H, availability at NTPCs plants was impacted by production issues at Coal Indias mines (Talcher and Korba coalfields). However, production at these mines has improved, leading to recovery in coal stocks at these plants (Exhibit 2). As per our interaction with NTPC, given the essential nature of the power generation business, the movement of coal through rail or road has not been a challenge.

The acquisition multiple ascribed is reasonable as Neepco has been acquired at P/BV multiple of 0.6x on FY19 financials (latest available) while on an equity/MW basis the valuation works out to | 1.9 crore/MW (operational plus under construction capacity). Similarly, THDC has been acquired at a P/BV multiple of 1.1x on FY19 financials while on an equity/MW basis, the valuation works out to | 2.9 crore/MW (operational plus under construction capacity). This acquisition will help NTPC diversify its thermal based portfolio as non-thermal capacity before this event was just 800 MW....

NTPC Ltd. owns and operates power generation plants that supply power to state electricity boards throughout India. The company generates power from coal, gas, liquid fuel, hydro, solar, nuclear, wind and renewable energy...

NTPC Q3 PAT rises 22.6% to Rs 3197.73 cr, meets estimates as other income rises Revenue from operations in Q3 December 2019 declined 0.31% to Rs 25412.39 crore, from Rs 25491.04 crore in the corresponding period last year. Profit before tax (PBT) for Q3 December 2019 stood at Rs 3672.94 crore, down by 1.34% from Rs 3722.76 crore in Q3 December 2018. Tax expenses declined 12.33% to Rs 696.63 crore year-on-year (YoY). Profit after tax (PAT) for Q3 December 2019 stood at Rs 3179.06 crore, grew by 22.37% from Rs 2597.95 crore in Q3 December 2018. NTPC group's total installed capacity increased to 58,156 MW as on 31 December 2019 as...

Gross generation declined 12.6% to ~61.2 billion units (BUs) vs. estimate of 60.7 BUs whereas energy sold declined 13.9% YoY to 56.3 BUs vs. our estimate of 58.6 BUs, given auxiliary consumption was at 8%. Plant load factor (PLF) of coal plants was at 63.5% vs. 77.7% in Q3FY19 while that of gas based plants was at 10.4%. Similarly, the plant availability factor (PAF) was at 88.3% vs. 85.3% in Q3FY19 while the same for gas based stations was at 98.8% vs. 94.9%. As of Q3FY20, commercial capacity was at 47985 MW whereas installed capacity was at 49695 MW as of 9MFY20. The...

FC recoveries of INR0.7b were largely driven by better availability at NTPCs plants, given production recovery at corresponding Coal Indias mines. On the other hand, the company had witnessed FC u/r of INR2.8b in the same quarter last year pertaining to Unchahar (which has now stabilized post the boiler blast) and the lack of coal availability at Kudgi and Mauda (non- NTPC booked late payment surcharge of INR4.2b (v/s INR0.9b in 3QFY19), given the change to accrual accounting and higher overdues amount. NTPC witnessed FC recoveries of ~INR0.7b as the availability factor for its plants The company noted that DIPAM has appointed a transaction advisor for the acquisition, while NTPC has appointed SBI Caps for the same. NTPC expects another ~5.2GW to be commercialized in PAF at NTPCs plants was impacted by coal production issues at Coal Indias mines (Talcher, Korba coal fields) in 1H.

23 January 2020 NTPCs commercialization target of ~5GW appears on track. PAF at NTPCs plants was impacted by coal production issues at Coal Indias mines (Talcher and Korba coal fields). We note that in FY19, u/r were largely pertaining to Unchahar (which has now stabilized post the boiler blast) and the lack of coal availability at its non-pit head plants (such as Kudgi and Mauda). This time around Talcher, Korba and Sipat pit head plants have largely seen issues on fuel availability. Thus, as production at corresponding Coal Indias mines recover, availability at these plants can be ramped up. Over Nov-Dec19, NTPCs plants within Korba coalfields (Sipat and Korba Stg. III) have reported PAF of 90-100%. ~5GW of capitalization for FY20 appears to be on track given the recent commissioning/commercialization. We believe fuel supply/availability at these plants can be ramped up (if operational issues at mines do not persist).

This was driven by an increase in generation from pit head (lower variable cost) plants in the northern and eastern regions of India; on the other hand, higher variable cost generation from the southern region CERC, in its order, has taken note of this and (1) extended its implementation up to end-FY20, and (2) set out a methodology for sharing of benefits accumulated in the pool. The CERC has directed that benefits within the SCED pool should be shared equally between the participating generators and DISCOMs (after compensation for part load operations of generators). The benefit for each generator would be in proportion to their share of SCED schedule for the time Our analysis suggests that NTPC is entitled to a net benefit of ~INR1b for the first three months of the pilot scheme (see As observed, PLF for NTPCs non- pit head plants (such as Simhadri, Kudgi, Solapur and Dadri) have declined.