Voltas: Voltas' Q1FY23 saw a mixed bag performance. UCP revenue was in line with market share recovery in RAC, while segment margin saw a miss (seen industry-wide). EMPS continued to disappoint, by missing both on revenue and margin. UCP delivered a 125/111% value/volume YoY growth (HSIE 123%), with the three-year CAGR at 8%. Voltas also regained some of its market share, which touched 24% (June exit) vs 19% earlier (March exit), a market share lead of 950bps over the No. 2 player. Voltas is also a leader in the inverter segment (earlier dominated by LG), with the market share at 22%, 300bps higher than LG. Despite increasing competition, we believe Voltas' core strength (after sales service, distribution network, etc.) will continue to support its market share. RAC is Voltas' core business (unlike for other players); we believe an aggressive and proactive approach will continue to bring efficiency and competitiveness in the long run. UCP EBIT margin saw pressure (7.7% vs. HSIE 9%); with commodity softening and easing trade inventory, we expect recovery in EBIT margin. We model 11% EBIT margin for FY24/25. Performance of project business remained weak and we do not expect immediate relief (although we model 6% EBIT margin for FY24/25). We cut our EPS estimates by 17/6/3% (largely to offset weak performance of project business) for FY23/24/25. We value the stock on SoTP (UCP/EMPS/EPS P/E at 43/10/15x and Volt-Beko P/S of 4x) on Jun-24 to derive a TP of INR 1,050. Maintain ADD. Gujarat State Petronet: Our ADD rating on Gujarat State Petronet...
Dabur reported a decent print (+10% YoY India revenue, +5% YoY volume growth) with Foods and Beverages managing the show well. While Healthcare performance appears unexciting (lapping a high base), the HPC category did reasonably well. That said, the performance was decent on an overall basis.