TVS Motor Company Ltd. share price target

TVSL’s FY26 annual report highlights accelerated execution across 5 strategic priorities—premiumization, EV leadership, commercial mobility, sustainability, and global expansion—supported by sustained R&D (5x over 10Y to Rs12.5bn, 2.7% of FY26 revenue) and brand investments (4% of revenue).

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

TVSL logged another strong quarter, with revenue up 38% yoy led by 28% yoy volume growth/4% qoq ASP rise. EBITDA was up 41% yoy with EBITDAM at 12.8% (dip limited to 30bps qoq as the 130bps gross margin drop was offset by lower other expenses).

TVS Motor Company (TVSL) is poised to sustain its domestic and international outperformance, driven by robust retail demand (led by market share gain), strong EV momentum, and strategic global expansion (LATAM, Middle-East and EU).

TVS Motor Company (TVS)’s 1QFY27 EBITDA came in 8% ahead of our estimate of INR17.8b as the impact of a sharp rise in input costs was offset by improved mix, favorable currency benefits, and tight cost control.

Outperformance in Scooters, EVs and exports drive gains of 28% YoY and 34% YoY in volumes and revenue respectively

To increase capacity by 1.5mn units to 8.3mn in 12 months TVSL reported a mixed set of Q4 numbers with in-line revenue, beat on margins (that expanded), and miss on PAT. The management aims to outperform industry in the scooter segment, in e2Ws, and in exports which it expects to drive FY27 growth. TVSL continues to invest in technology, R&D, innovation and brand building and is taking riskcalibrated growth measures across categories amid geopolitical uncertainties. We estimate volume/realization CAGR of 10.3%/4.6% over FY26-28E translating to revenue/EBITDA/adj. EPS CAGR of 15.4%/16.0%/20.4%. Retain ACCUMULATE' rating with TP of INR3,950 (previously INR4,150), valuing the stock at 35x P/E based on...

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

TVSL logged a strong Q4, with revenue up 34% YoY, led by 28% YoY volume growth and 1.5% higher ASP QoQ. EBITDA was up 26% YoY, with EBITDAM stable QoQ at 13.1%.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

TVS Motor Company (TVS)’s 3QFY26 PAT stood at INR9.7b, in line with our estimate of INR10b. EBITDA margin expanded 120bp YoY to 13.1% (slightly above our estimate of 12.9%).

TVS Motor Company (TVS) has been the only two-wheeler player in India to showcase consistent market share gains across its key segments over the past decade and has delivered this with earnings CAGR of 23% and RoCE improvement to 36% (from 22%).

Export volumes grew 31% Yoy in Q2FY26, ahead of industry growth, Strong momentum in Africa & Latin America; recovery in Asia.

The demand outlook remains positive supported by GST rate cuts and improving rural sentiment among other macro economic tailwinds. Management expects commodity cost pressures to be softer in Q3 compared to Q2, while pricing discipline, favourable product mix and material costsaving initiatives are likely to support margin expansion. EV volume trajectory is expected to improve from Q3 with the rollout of the new Orbiter EV and gradual easing of magnet supply constraints. The company continues to invest strategically in premium motorcycles, EVs and technology capabilities to reinforce long-term competitiveness. With strong product momentum, export recovery and sustained premiumisation, TVS is positioned to grow ahead of the industry....

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

TVS Motor Company’s (TVS) 2Q PAT at INR9.1b was below our estimate of INR9.9b, even as the EBITDA miss was just 2%. PAT miss was largely driven by higher interest and depreciation expenses, along with a loss on the fair valuation of its investment in TVS Supply Chain.

TVSL logged a healthy Q2, with 29% YoY revenue growth and 12.7% EBITDAM (vs 11.7/12.5% YoY/QoQ). Per the management, the domestic 2W industry grew 24% during the festive season (urban/rural: ~26/22%), with TVSL outpacing peers with ~32% growth.

EBITDA surged by 40% y/y to Rs15.1bn, broadly in-line with our estimate. Our positive stance on the stock is backed by expected upturn in 2W volume (domestic/exports), led by GST relief and better financing availability.

Arriving at a revised TP of Rs 3,810 (Earlier: Rs 3,085), implying an upside of 11% from the CMP. We hence maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

The demand environment remains positive, driven by good monsoons, benign interest rates, tax reliefs, and the festive season in addition to strong exports. FY26 capex is expected to be Rs. 1,600-1,700 cr. The company also plans to make strategic investments of Rs. 2,000 cr in FY26. Management indicated commodity cost pressures of around 0.5% in Q2, which they intend to...