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Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
22 Jan 2025
Market closes higher, HDFC Bank's net profit grows 2.2% YoY to Rs 16,735.5 crore in Q3
By Trendlyne Analysis

Markets closed higher. Nifty 50 closed at 23,155.35 (130.7, 0.6%) , BSE Sensex closed at 76,404.99 (566.6, 0.8%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 21,396.55 (-36.7, -0.2%). Market breadth is moving down. Of the 2,394 stocks traded today, 522 showed gains, and 1,846 showed losses.

Indian indices closed higher, with the benchmark Nifty 50 index closing at 23,155.4 points. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, fell 1.7% and closed at around 16.8 points. HDFC Bank's net profit grew 2.2% YoY to Rs 16,735.5 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increased 7% YoY to Rs 87,460.4 crore during the quarter. 

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the red. Nifty Services Sector and Nifty Pharma closed higher. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Software & Services emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 1.4%.

European indices are trading in the green, except for Spain’s IBEX 35. Major Asian indices closed mixed. US index futures are trading higher, indicating a positive start to the trading session. Alphabet reportedly invests an additional $1 billion in AI start-up Anthropic, building on its earlier $2 billion commitment to strengthen its position in the AI race. GE Aerospace, Texas Instruments, and Union Pacific are set to report their earnings later today.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that Sanofi India is in the oversold zone.

  • HDFC Bank rises as its net profit grows 2.2% YoY to Rs 16,735.5 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 7% YoY to Rs 87,460.4 crore, owing to improvements in the treasury, retail and wholesale banking segments. However, the bank's asset quality declines as its gross and net NPA grow by 16 bps and 15 bps YoY, respectively. It appears in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue for the past four quarters.

  • Cyient DLM plunges to its 52-week low of Rs 505.7 per share as its net profit declines 40.4% YoY to Rs 11 crore in Q3FY25 due to higher raw materials, inventory, employee benefits, finance, and depreciation & amortisation expenses. However, revenue grows 36.5% YoY to Rs 451.1 crore, helped by improvements in the defence and aerospace segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with declining cash flows.

  • LTIMindtree is rising as it extends its partnership with the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), a non-profit association focused on improving medical education and health care. Under this partnership, the company will help AAMC accelerate continuous improvement initiatives, improve decision-making, and enhance productivity.

  • Bandhan Bank receives a claim payout of Rs 289.6 crore under the Credit Guarantee Fund for Micro Units (CGFMU) scheme. The amount, calculated at Rs 314.7 crore as of March 31, 2024, is adjusted by Rs 25.1 crore recovered from eligible accounts between April 1 and October 31, 2024.

  • Polycab India falls sharply as its revenue misses Forecaster estimates by 2.8% despite rising 20.4% YoY to Rs 5,226.1 crore in Q3FY25, driven by strong performance in the wires & cables and FMEG segments. Net profit grows by 10.8% YoY to Rs 457.6 crore, helped by inventory destocking. It shows up in a screener of stocks with an increasing trend in non-core income.

  • Neuland Laboratories rises sharply as its board of directors approves a capex of Rs 342 crore for the capacity expansion at Units 1 and 3 of its Telangana manufacturing facility. The company plans to increase the peptide synthesizer capacity by 6.4-kilo litre (KL) from 6.9 KL at Unit 1 and expand capacity by 52 KL to 373 KL at Unit 3.

  • ITI secures a Rs 167 crore contract from the Rural Development Department, Government of Maharashtra. The contract involves setting up, operationalizing, rolling out, and monitoring the implementation of Aaple Sarkar Seva Kendra (ASSK) in the Gram Panchayats of the Chatrapathi Sambhaji Nagar, Nagpur, and Amaravati regions of Maharashtra.

  • Jefferies maintains a 'Buy' rating on Ambuja Cements & ACC with target prices of Rs 725 and Rs 2,655, respectively. The brokerage cites the cement industry's recovery in volume and pricing in CY25. It names Ambuja Cements among its top picks and expects the recent mergers and acquisitions (M&As) to help drive volume growth.

  • Tanla Platforms falls sharply as its Q3FY25 net profit drops by 15.4% YoY to Rs 118.5 crore due to higher cost of services and employee benefits expenses. Revenue decreases marginally by 0.2% YoY to Rs 1,000.4 crore during the quarter. It shows up in a screener of stocks where mutual funds decreased their holding in the past quarter.

  • Piramal Pharma is falling as it issues a corporate guarantee for a $216 million (~ Rs 1,869.1 crore) loan for its European subsidiary, Piramal Dutch Holdings, from a group of banks, including The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corp, BNP Paribas, and Axis Bank.

  • Akums Drugs & Pharmaceuticals is falling as the Income Tax Department conducts a search at the company's and its subsidiaries' offices and manufacturing units.

  • Life Insurance Corporation of India increases its stake in Container Corp of India (CONCOR) to 9.8% (approx 6 crore shares) from 7.8% in September 2024, by buying 41 lakh shares this month. The insurer bought the stake through open market purchases, indicating confidence in the company's outlook.

  • Dalmia Bharat's net profit plunges 76.8% YoY to Rs 61 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue declines 12.2% YoY to Rs 3,218 crore due to lower sales volumes during the quarter. It shows up in a screener of stocks with PE higher than industry average PE.

  • India Cements' falls sharply as its revenue falls 16.5% YoY to Rs 903.2 crore in Q3FY25, missing the Forecaster estimates by 4.5%. Net loss expands to Rs 428.8 crore compared to Rs 16.5 crore in Q3FY24 due to higher raw material, power & fuel and finance costs. It shows up in a screener of stocks underperforming their industry price change in the quarter.

  • Rossari Biotech is falling as its net profit misses Forecaster estimates by 6.5% after declining 7.8% YoY to Rs 31.7 crore in Q3FY25 due to rising input costs and lower operational efficiency. However, revenue increases 10.6% YoY to Rs 512.7 crore during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks outperforming their industry price change in the quarter.

  • Kotak Institutional Equities believes the Indian economy could experience moderate collateral damage if a prolonged "conflict" arises between foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs). The brokerage anticipates large FPI outflows, with DIIs buying at current high valuations, likely leading to issues with the balance of payments (BoP), forex reserves, and liquidity.

  • JK Tyre & Industries secures a $100 million (~Rs 865.7 crore) sustainability-linked loan from the International Finance Corporation (IFC), allocating $30 million to itself and $70 million to its subsidiary, Cavendish Industries. The funds will boost passenger car radial (PCR) tyre production at its Madhya Pradesh plant and bus radial (TBR) tyres in Uttarakhand.

  • KEI Industries is falling as its Q3FY25 net profit misses Forecaster estimates by 6% despite growing 9.4% YoY to Rs 164.8 crore, helped by inventory destocking and lower sub-contracting expenses. Revenue rises 19.6% YoY to Rs 2,480.9 crore, driven by improvements in the cables & wires and stainless steel wire segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with growing costs YoY for long-term projects.

  • Home First Finance Company India's board of directors schedules a meeting for January 28 to consider a proposal to raise funds via a qualified institutional placement (QIP) of equity shares. The board will also announce the company's Q3FY25 earnings during the meeting.

  • DAM Capital initiates a 'Buy' rating on Karur Vysya Bank with a target price of Rs 274. The brokerage highlights the bank's structural transformation, with improvements in return on assets (RoA) and return on equity (RoE) to 1.7% and 17%, respectively. It believes the bank has the potential to be a steady compounder and its strong business can thrive in the mid-sized banking sector.

  • IndiaMART InterMESH plunges to its 52-week low of Rs 2,065.4 per share as its Q3FY25 net profit declines 10.4% QoQ to Rs 121 crore, caused by higher employee benefits expenses. Revenue falls 3.2% QoQ to Rs 399.2 crore during the quarter. It shows up in a screener of stocks where promoters are decreasing their shareholding.

  • PNB Housing Finance's net profit grows 42.8% YoY to Rs 483.3 crore in Q3FY25, driven by better management of financial losses and write-offs. Revenue increases 10.7% YoY to Rs 1,941.8 crore during the quarter. It features in a screener of stocks with zero promoter pledges.

  • Tata Technologies' net profit grows 7.1% QoQ to Rs 168.6 crore in Q3FY25, helped by lower outsourcing & consultancy expenses. Revenue rises 2.4% QoQ to Rs 1,345 crore, driven by improvements in the services and technology solutions segments. It features in a screener of stocks with increasing return on equity (RoE) over the past two years.

  • ICICI Prudential Life Insurance's net profit grows 43.2% YoY to Rs 325.7 crore in Q3FY25, helped by lower advertisement and publicity expenses. Revenue decreases by 82.8% YoY to Rs 4,535.6 crore due to a loss from investment income during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks with increasing profits every quarter for the past three quarters.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 23,099.85 (75.2, 0.3%) , BSE Sensex was trading at 76,114.42 (276.1, 0.4%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 21,416.70 (-16.5, -0.1%)

  • Market breadth is sharply down. Of the 1,902 stocks traded today, 528 were gainers and 1,324 were losers.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Bajaj Holdings & Investment Ltd. (11,286.40, 4.5%), Wipro Ltd. (309.10, 3.6%) and Infosys Ltd. (1,856.45, 3.1%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Macrotech Developers Ltd. (1,077.20, -6.1%), Polycab India Ltd. (6,164.35, -6.0%) and ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd. (598.05, -5.9%).

Movers and Shakers

20 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation Ltd. (2,230.15, 12.6%), Star Cement Ltd. (229.77, 6.9%) and Elgi Equipments Ltd. (558.80, 5.6%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were India Cements Ltd. (319.65, -8.3%), Aditya Birla Real Estate Ltd. (1,845.80, -6.7%) and IndiaMART InterMESH Ltd. (2,143.45, -6.6%).

Zydus Wellness Ltd. (1,802, -3.2%) was trading at 20.3 times of weekly average. Bajaj Holdings & Investment Ltd. (11,286.40, 4.5%) and PNB Housing Finance Ltd. (911.45, 1.4%) were trading with volumes 15.9 and 10.9 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

30 stocks tanked below their 52 week lows.

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Astral Ltd. (1,455.40, -0.6%) and Axis Bank Ltd. (959.30, -1.1%).

6 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation Ltd. (2,230.15, 12.6%) and Star Cement Ltd. (229.77, 6.9%). 43 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including India Cements Ltd. (319.65, -8.3%) and Aegis Logistics Ltd. (718.65, -6.1%).

 
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The Baseline
22 Jan 2025
Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - January 22, 2025
By Divyansh Pokharna

1. REC:

Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this public sector NBFC with a target price of Rs 530, indicating a potential upside of 11.2%. REC's management plans to double its assets under management (AUM) to Rs 10 lakh crore by 2030, with renewable energy making up about 30% of its portfolio. The company also aims to capture 20% of the market share in the coal-based power plant business. Analysts Dnyanada Vaidya and Pranav Nawale project an AUM growth of ~18% CAGR over FY25-27.

REC has managed higher risks from state government-backed entities by relying on government guarantees for timely repayments. Its selective lending strategy and efforts to resolve stressed loans have helped improve asset quality. Vaidya and Nawale say, “We expect slippages to stay under control, leading to a gradual improvement in asset quality. With credit costs remaining in check, we anticipate healthy earnings growth of 14% CAGR over FY25-27.”

The company’s management expects to maintain net interest margins (NIMs) between 3.5-3.8%, with FY25 NIMs estimated at around 3.6%. The analysts believe that while there may be a slight decline in NIMs, low credit costs will offset this, enabling REC to achieve a stable return on assets (RoA) of 2.5-2.6% and return on equity (RoE) of 20-21% in the medium term.

2. Bharat Electronics:

Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this defence equipment manufacturer with a target price of Rs 360, indicating an upside potential of 29.1%. Bharat Electronics (BEL) has grown its overall defence market share to 12.8% in FY24 from ~12% in FY23, driven by government focus on defence indigenization. Analysts Teena Virmani, Prerit Jain, and Harsh Tewaney note that the BEL holds nearly 60% market share in the specialized defense electronics segment.

The analysts highlight BEL’s strong order book of Rs 74,600 crore as of Q2FY25. They also note that the company is expanding its presence through strategic business units and focusing on increasing exports and non-defense projects in its order book. In FY24, the company filed 146 intellectual property rights (IPRs), including 82 patents, in areas like AI, radars, and embedded systems. During the same period, 161 patents were granted, comprising approvals from some of the FY24 filings as well as applications submitted in previous years, bringing the total number of granted patents to 208.

Virmani, Jain, and Tewaney project order inflows of Rs 25,000 crore, Rs 32,100 crore, and Rs 38,500 crore for FY25, FY26, and FY27, respectively. They expect a revenue CAGR of 19% and a net profit CAGR of 20% over the FY25-27. However, the firm is in the PE Sell Zone, currently trading above its historical PE.

3. HCL Technologies:

Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this IT consulting firm with a target price of Rs 2,180, indicating an upside of 21%. In Q3FY25, the company reported a revenue growth of 3.6% QoQ, reaching Rs 29,890 crore, driven by improvements in the software, engineering research and development (ER&D), and services segments. EBIT margin expanded by 90 bps to 19.5%, surpassing analyst estimates of 19.3%. Net profit increased by 8.4% to Rs 4,591 crore, beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates marginally by 0.3%.

HCL Tech's total contract value (TCV) stood at $2,095 million in Q3FY25, marking a 6% QoQ decline. The company’s management noted that the average duration of signed deals has shortened, leading to moderated TCV. While smaller deals are converting faster, larger deals are taking more time. Analysts believe that HCL Tech is well positioned to deliver growth among Tier-1 IT companies in FY25 and beyond, thanks to its diversified offerings and partnerships with hyperscalers like SAP and ServiceNow.

The company’s share price dropped by 9.3% over the past month and 4.4% during the previous quarter. However, analysts expect the company to continue its growth in the IT services business, which makes up 89% of its total revenue. They forecast a revenue CAGR of 9% and a net profit CAGR of 12% over FY25-27.

4. HDFC Life Insurance Company:

KRChoksey maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this life insurance company with a target price of Rs 820, indicating an upside potential of 31.4%. In Q3FY25, the company reported a 11.6% YoY growth in gross written premium (GWP) to Rs 17,275 crore, driven by higher contributions from individual and group businesses.

Analyst Dipak Saha mentions that the market share of the company rose by 70 bps to 10.8%. The number of policies sold increased by 15%, outpacing the private sector’s growth of 9%. He notes that the annuity business is expected to grow due to rising awareness of retirement planning and a growing customer base, along with increased demand for guaranteed income products for post-retirement financial security. 

In Q3FY25, the value of new business (VNB) grew by 9.1%, driven by a solid increase in annualized premium equivalent (APE). The company aims for double-digit APE growth in FY25, supported by strong seasonal demand in the January-March quarter. 

Saha expects the annuity and protection businesses to see steady growth, supported by increased demand in tier 2 and tier 3 cities. They expect 15.2% CAGR growth in net premiums, 15.9% in VNB, 23.1% in net profit and 13.8% over FY25-27.

5. Rainbow Childrens Medicare:

Prabhudas Lilladher initiates coverage with a ‘Buy’ rating on this healthcare facilities company with a target price of Rs 1,785. This indicates an upside potential of 23.7%. Analysts Param Desai and Sanketa Kohale believe that the company leveraged its first-mover advantage to establish itself as a leader in India’s pediatrics market, offering specialized healthcare services.

As of Q2FY25, Rainbow Childrens Medicare has 1,523 beds operational out of its total capacity of 1,935 beds. The company plans to add over 380 beds between H2FY25 and FY27 by expanding spokes in Bengaluru and establishing regional hubs in Coimbatore and Rajahmundry. Additionally, the board is exploring mergers and acquisitions in Northeast and West India.

Desai and Kohale project the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 19% over FY25-27, driven by improvements in FY25, new bed additions, and scaling up of recently launched units.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
21 Jan 2025
Market closes lower, Aditya Birla Real Estate's Q3 revenue falls 12.3% YoY to Rs 961.3 crore
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 23,024.65 (-320.1, -1.4%) , BSE Sensex closed at 75,838.36 (-1235.1, -1.6%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 21,433.20 (-375.8, -1.7%). Market breadth is sharply down. Of the 2,390 stocks traded today, 546 showed gains, and 1,815 showed losses.

Indian indices closed in the red as most of the Q3 earnings, were either in-line or marginally fell short of expectations. Stretched valuations added to the trouble. Zomato was the biggest stock loser on the Sensex today, falling over 10% after its net profit dropped 57.2% YoY. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose 3.5% and closed at 17 points.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the red, following the benchmark index. S&P BSE Realty Index and Nifty Realty were among the top index losers today. According to Trendlyne’s Sector dashboard, Telecommunications Equipment emerged as the worst-performing sector of the day, with a fall of 3.6%.

Asian indices closed higher with an exception of Indian indices, while European indices are trading mixed. US index futures traded in the green, indicating a positive start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures are trading in the red. Goldman Sachs expects Chinese equity markets to grow 20% over the next 12 months, despite US trade tariff concerns. Kinger Lau, chief China equity strategist at the firm, believes China can absorb additional tariffs this year and anticipates low-teens earnings growth for Chinese companies, excluding the tariff impact.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that Vodafone Idea is in the overbought zone.

  • Indian Railway Finance Corp's net profit grows 2% YoY to Rs 1,630.7 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases marginally by 0.4% YoY to Rs 6,763.4 crore, helped by higher lease income. It shows up in a screener of stocks with improving book value over the past two years.

  • Adani Energy Solutions secures an order worth approximately Rs 25,000 crore for the Bhadla (Rajasthan)-Fatehpur (Uttar Pradesh) High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) transmission project. The order aims to evacuate 6 GW of renewable energy from Rajasthan’s renewable energy zones to demand centers in North India and the national grid. AESL will complete the project within 4.5 years.

  • Aditya Birla Real Estate is falling sharply as it posts a net loss of Rs 40.6 crore in Q3FY25 compared to a net profit of Rs 83.3 crore in Q3FY24 due to higher inventory, land, construction, employee benefits, finance, and depreciation & amortisation expenses. Revenue declines 12.3% YoY to Rs 961.3 crore, caused by a reduction in the pulp and paper segment. It shows up in a screener of stocks with weakening technicals and share price decline.

  • Sudipta Roy, Managing Director & CEO of L&T Finance, projects a 20% growth in assets under management (AUM) for FY25. He adds that the company’s disbursements will be risk-calibrated, with reduced sectoral disbursements in the rural joint liability group segment. Roy expects credit costs to remain high in Q4FY25 and highlights a recovery in the rural segment in Q3.

  • Sunteck Realty is rising as it posts a net profit of Rs 42.5 crore in Q3FY25 compared to a net loss of Rs 9.7 crore in Q3FY24, driven by lower construction and development costs. Revenue surges 2.8X YoY to Rs 161.8 crore during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks with increasing profits every quarter for the past two quarters.

  • South Indian Bank's net profit grows 12% YoY to Rs 342 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 6.9% YoY to Rs 2,817.8 crore driven by improvements in the corporate and retail banking segments. The bank's asset quality improves as its gross and net NPAs decline by 44 bps YoY and 36 bps YoY, respectively. It shows up in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue over the past eight quarters.

  • AGI Greenpac's Q3FY25 net profit grows 34.9% YoY to Rs 90.5 crore owing to lower raw materials, employee benefits, finance, and depreciation & amortisation expenses. Revenue rises 7.8% YoY to Rs 674 crore, led by an improvement in the packaging products segment. It features a screener of stocks with dividend yields greater than their sector average dividend yield.

  • Macquarie maintains a positive outlook for the cement industry, forecasting demand recovery and price hikes to drive margin expansion in H2CY24. The brokerage keeps an 'Outperform' rating on Ultratech Cement with a target price of Rs 11,868. However, it downgrades Ramco Cements to an 'Underperform' rating with a target price of Rs 785.

  • Indoco Remedies is falling as it posts a net loss of Rs 26.4 crore in Q3FY25 compared to a net profit of Rs 16.3 crore in Q3FY24 due to higher inventory, depreciation & amortisation, finance, and employee benefits expenses. Revenue declines 10.9% YoY to Rs 411.4 crore, caused by a reduction in exports. It shows up in a screener of stocks with low Piotroski scores.

  • Tata Elxsi partners with Minespider, a blockchain-powered solutions provider, to Launch MOBIUS+ for battery lifecycle traceability. The partnership will develop a battery lifecycle management platform that combines blockchain and analytics to optimize battery sustainability and compliance across global markets.

  • Multi Commodity Exchange of India falls sharply as it posts a net profit of Rs 160 crore in Q3FY25, compared to a loss of Rs 5.4 crore in Q3FY24, but misses Forecaster estimates by 1%. The profit is driven by a significant reduction in information technology and related expenses. Revenue grows 57.3% YoY to Rs 301.4 crore during the quarter. It features in a screener of stocks underperforming their industry price change in the quarter.

  • Nomura upgrades its rating on Gland Pharma to 'Neutral', with a lower target price of Rs 1,790. The brokerage notes that improved US exports could impact the company’s performance. It attributes lower Enoxaparin supplies to the decline in US exports in Q3 but expects a recovery in Q4. This setback will likely result in a stronger product mix, potentially enhancing YoY gross margin.

  • L&T Finance is rising as its Q3FY25 net profit beats Forecaster estimates by 5.2% despite falling 2.2% YoY to Rs 626.4 crore due to higher finance, impairment on financial instruments, and employee benefits expenses. However, revenue grows 14.6% YoY to Rs 4,105.1 crore, helped by improvements in its retail book and disbursements. It features in a screener of stocks with above-line growth and below-line valuations.

  • Cipla is falling as its wholly-owned subsidiary, Medispray Laboratories, receives a Form 483 with one observation from the US FDA following an inspection at its manufacturing facility in Kundaim, Goa.

  • Landmark Cars is rising as it receives a letter of intent (LoI) from JSW MG Motor India (MGI) to set up new MG Select dealerships in Ahmedabad and Kolkata. The dealerships will be established by its subsidiary, Aeromark Cars, and are expected to be operational by May 2025 with two models, MG Cyberstar and MG M9 EV.

  • One97 Communications (Paytm) declines over 5% as its Q3FY25 contribution margin misses analyst estimates amid higher DLG (default loan guarantee) costs. JM Financial anticipates the impact of DLG costs will normalize, with the contributing margin returning to around 55% (excluding UPI incentives). It believes the company will report PAT profitability next quarter, helped by UPI incentives of Rs 350 crore. The brokerage maintains its 'Buy' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 1,250.

  • Vodafone Idea receives a Rs 1,600 crore tax refund as the Supreme Court upholds the Bombay High Court's ruling, dismissing the tax department's appeal due to an unexplained 295-day filing delay.

  • Reliance Power's board of directors appoints Neeraj Parakh as its Chief Executive Officer (CEO) for three years, effective January 20.

  • Jammu & Kashmir Bank's net profit grows 26.2% YoY to Rs 531.5 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue rises 12.6% YoY to Rs 3,448.4 crore, helped by improvements in the treasury, corporate, and retail banking segments. The bank's asset quality improves as its gross NPA declines by 76 bps YoY.

  • CLSA remains cautiously optimistic about the Indian IT sector, forecasting a BFSI-led recovery in 2025. It believes the European auto slowdown presents a significant challenge. The brokerage notes improving deal activity in both large and small deals in H2FY25 and expects a 4.5% YoY growth in managed services, driven by a gradual recovery.

  • Glenmark Pharmaceuticals is rising as it launches its Phytonadione Injectable Emulsion Ampules in the US market, used to treat Vitamin K deficiencies. The ampules are equivalent to Hospira’s Vitamin K1 Injectable Emulsion, with an estimated market size of approximately $19.7 million in the year ending November 2024, according to IQVIA.

  • Oberoi Realty is falling sharply as its net profit misses Forecaster estimates by 4.1% despite surging by 71.7% YoY to Rs 618.4 crore in Q3FY25, helped by lower land, development rights, and construction expenses. Revenue grows 34.5% YoY to Rs 1,460.3 crore, attributed to improvements in the real estate and hospitality segments. It shows up in a screener of stocks with an increasing trend in non-core income.

  • Dixon Technologies (India) is falling as its net profit misses Forecaster estimates by 20.4% despite rising 77.5% YoY to Rs 171.2 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 1.2X YoY to Rs 10,453.7 crore, driven by a 1.9X growth in the mobile and electronics manufacturing services segment during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks outperforming their industry price change in the quarter.

  • Zomato falls sharply as its Q3FY25 net profit declines 57.2% YoY to Rs 59 crore due to higher inventory, employee benefits, finance, depreciation & amortisation, advertisement & sales promotion, and delivery & related expenses. However, revenue surges 61.3% YoY to Rs 5,657 crore, driven by improvements in the India food ordering & delivery, hyperpure supplies, quick commerce, and going out segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with expensive valuations according to Trendlyne valuation scores.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 23,389.75 (45, 0.2%), BSE Sensex was trading at 77,261.72 (188.3, 0.2%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 21,819.60 (10.6, 0.1%).

  • Market breadth is ticking up strongly. Of the 1,944 stocks traded today, 1,386 showed gains, and 524 showed losses.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (369.95, 2.7%), Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. (6,919.15, 2.0%) and Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd. (3,823.55, 1.7%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd. (15,144.35, -13.8%), Zomato Ltd. (214.55, -10.5%) and Oberoi Realty Ltd. (1,858.05, -7.2%).

Volume Rockets

20 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Global Health Ltd. (1,055.35, 5.4%), Century Plyboards (India) Ltd. (818.65, 3.3%) and Vinati Organics Ltd. (1,745.70, 2.5%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Newgen Software Technologies Ltd. (1,311.35, -16.2%), Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd. (15,144.35, -13.8%) and Zomato Ltd. (214.55, -10.5%).

Tanla Platforms Ltd. (666.05, 0.9%) was trading at 22.8 times of weekly average. Sunteck Realty Ltd. (493.60, 0.2%) and Dalmia Bharat Ltd. (1,771.20, 1.1%) were trading with volumes 14.2 and 6.6 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

1 stock overperformed with 52 week highs, while 9 stocks were underachievers and hit their 52 week lows.

Stock touching their year highs included - Biocon Ltd. (390.55, -2.7%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Astral Ltd. (1,464.60, -1.3%) and Axis Bank Ltd. (970.20, -1.8%).

16 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Sammaan Capital Ltd. (160.91, 2.1%) and Star Cement Ltd. (214.87, 2.1%). 23 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Zomato Ltd. (214.55, -10.5%) and Oberoi Realty Ltd. (1,858.05, -7.2%).

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
20 Jan 2025
Market closes higher, ICICI Lombard's net profit grows 67.9% YoY to Rs 724.4 crore in Q3
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 23,344.75 (141.6, 0.6%) , BSE Sensex closed at 77,073.44 (454.1, 0.6%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 21,809 (128.8, 0.6%). Market breadth is in the green. Of the 2,431 stocks traded today, 1,503 were gainers and 891 were losers.

Nifty 50 closed in the green after rising in the morning session. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose 4.2% and closed at 16.4 points. Kotak Mahindra Bank surged as its net profit grew 10% YoY to Rs 3,304.8 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increased 13.9% YoY to Rs 16,050.4 crore, led by improvements in the treasury, corporate, and retail banking segments.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed higher, following the benchmark index. Nifty Private Bank and S&P BSE Telecom Index were among the top index gainers today. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Telecommunications Equipment emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 2.9%.

Asian indices closed higher, except for Korea’s KOSPI and Thailand’s SET, which closed flat. European indices are trading mixed. US index futures are trading flat, indicating a cautious start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures are trading lower as investors expect US President Donald Trump to lift restrictions on Russia's energy sector in exchange for a deal to end the Ukraine-Russia war.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that PTC Industries is in the overbought zone.

  • Newgen Software Technologies' net profit rises 26.5% QoQ to Rs 89 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 2.6% QoQ to Rs 389.5 crore, driven by higher sales in India, Asia-Pacific (APAC), and the United States regions during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks outperforming their industry price change in the quarter.

  • Supreme Petrochem's Q3FY25 net profit grows 5.4% YoY to Rs 71.4 crore, helped by inventory destocking. Revenue rises 18.2% YoY to Rs 1,422.7 crore, led by higher production volumes. It features in a screener of stocks with zero promoter pledges.

  • ICICI Lombard General Insurance's net profit grows by 67.9% YoY to Rs 724.4 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 17.6% YoY to Rs 5,882.8 crore during the quarter, driven by higher sales in the fire, marine, health, crop, and motor segments. It features in a screener of stocks with increasing profits every quarter for the past four quarters.

  • Kalyan Jewellers India rises over 5% as Motilal Oswal AMC issues a clarification, denying social media allegations of bribery related to pushing the company’s shares. Kalyan Jewellers clarified during its earnings call last week that there were no IT raids at its office and dismissed the bribery claims.

  • Nazara Technologies is rising as its board of directors approves raising up to Rs 495 crore through a preferential issue of shares at an issue price of Rs 990 per share.

  • Waaree Renewable Technologies is rising as it receives a letter of intent (LoI) for a Rs 277.2 crore project from a leading wind energy company. The order involves engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) work for a 105 megawatt peak capacity ground-mounted solar power project.

  • Motilal Oswal maintains its 'Buy' call on Infosys with a target price of Rs 2,200 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 21.4%. The brokerage believes the company will benefit from increased discretionary spending in FY26. It expects the firm's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 8.5% over FY25-27.

  • Suresh Iyer, Managing Director & CEO of Can Fin Homes, projects a 15% growth in assets under management (AUM) for FY26, with disbursals ranging between Rs 8,500-9,000 crore in FY25 and Rs 12,000 crore in FY26. He highlights that 'e-khata' (a portal used to keep property records) issues in Karnataka impacted the business by approximately Rs 400 crore in Q3FY25 but notes recent improvements in the process.

  • Netweb Technologies India's Q3FY25 net profit grows 17.9% QoQ to Rs 30.3 crore. Revenue surges 32.6% QoQ to Rs 335.5 crore, helped by improvements in the high performance computing (HPC), hyperconverged infrastructure (HCI), AI systems, high performance storage (HPS), and space & defence segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with improving net cash flow over the past two years.

  • Jio Financial Services' net profit grows marginally by 0.3% YoY to Rs 294.8 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 6% YoY to Rs 438.4 crore during the quarter, helped by higher gain on fair value changes. It shows up in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased their shareholding in the past quarter.

  • Hitachi Energy India's board of directors approves raising Rs 4,200 crore by issuing equity shares through a qualified institutional placement (QIP) or other securities.

  • Bajaj Finance enters a partnership with Bharti Airtel to offer its retail financial products on the Airtel Thanks App, with plans for a nationwide expansion to Airtel’s network of stores. Rajeev Jain, MD of Bajaj Finance, highlights the partnership's potential to leverage India’s digital infrastructure for inclusive growth and combine the brands' strengths.

  • Banco Products (India) is rising as its wholly-owned subsidiary, Nederlandse Radiateuren Fabriek (NRF), announces an expansion in Romania by opening a new 18,613 sq m warehouse in Chitila. The facility aims to address growing customer demand in the region and improve operational efficiency to support future growth.

  • One97 Communications is rising as its net loss contracts 5.2% YoY to Rs 208.3 crore in Q3FY25, helped by lower payment processing, marketing & promotional, employee benefits, software, cloud & data centre, and finance costs. However, revenue declines 32.8% YoY to Rs 2,016.5 crore during the quarter. It appears in a screener of stocks with the highest recovery from their 52-week lows.

  • Laxmi Dental's shares debut on the bourses at a 32.8% premium to the issue price of Rs 408. The Rs 698.1 crore IPO received bids for 114.4 times the total shares on offer.

  • United Breweries rises more than 5% as recent discussions reveal that the Telangana government assures the company of a price hike within 30-45 days. The government has plans to clear the outstanding dues in installments over the next 12-13 months. The company has decided to resume its beer supply to Telangana Beverages Corporation (TGBCL), effective immediately.

  • Gland Pharma is rising as it receives an establishment inspection report (EIR) from the US FDA following a good manufacturing practices (GMP) inspection at its Pashamylaram facility in Hyderabad in July 2024, marking the closure of the inspection.

  • Ramkrishna Forgings is rising as its Q3FY25 net profit grows 14.7% YoY to Rs 99.6 crore, helped by inventory destocking and lower depreciation & amortisation expenses. Revenue increases 8.1% YoY to Rs 1,077.4 crore, led by an improvement in the forging components segment. The company's board of directors approves setting up a new casting project with a capacity of 30,000 metric tonnes per annum (MTPA) in Jamshedpur.

  • Kotak Mahindra Bank surges as its net profit grows 10% YoY to Rs 3,304.8 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 13.9% YoY to Rs 16,050.4 crore, led by improvements in the treasury, corporate, and retail banking segments. The bank's asset quality improves as its gross NPA declines by 23 bps YoY.

  • Citi maintains a 'Buy' rating on SBI Life Insurance Co with a target price of Rs 2,100. The brokerage believes the company's strong momentum in its agency and unit-linked insurance plan (ULIP) businesses presents a promising opportunity for long-term investors. It also highlights the firm's solid operational performance. However, it highlights that potential regulatory challenges regarding bancassurance continue to pose risks.

  • RBL Bank is falling as its net profit declines 80.7% YoY to Rs 32.6 crore in Q3FY25. However, revenue increases 10.8% YoY to Rs 3,536.3 crore, driven by improvements in the treasury, wholesale, and retail banking segments during the quarter. The bank's asset quality improves as its gross and net NPAs contract by 20 bps and 27 bps YoY, respectively.

  • Tech Mahindra's Q3FY25 net profit declines by 21.4% QoQ to Rs 983.2 crore. Revenue falls by 3.8% QoQ to Rs 13,302.1 crore due to a reduction in the business process services (BPS) segment. It shows up in a screener of stocks with expensive valuations according to the Trendlyne valuation score.

  • Indian Hotels Company's net profit grows 28.9% YoY to Rs 582.3 crore in Q3FY25 due to lower finance costs. Revenue increases 29% YoY to Rs 2,533.1 crore, driven by a 40% increase in new businesses during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks with improving ROE over the past two years.

  • Wipro rises sharply as its net profit grows 4.5% QoQ to Rs 3,353.8 crore in Q3FY25, driven by lower inventory, employee benefits, facility, travel, communication, and legal & professional expenses. Revenue increases 0.3% QoQ to Rs 23,322.9 crore, helped by an improvement in the American market. It appears in a screener of stocks with increasing net profit for the past four quarters.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 23,227.60 (24.4, 0.1%), BSE Sensex was trading at 76,829.60 (210.3, 0.3%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 21,698.75 (18.5, 0.1%).

  • Market breadth is in the green. Of the 2,005 stocks traded today, 1,158 showed gains, and 784 showed losses.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. (1,920.50, 9.2%), Wipro Ltd. (300.25, 6.5%) and United Breweries Ltd. (2,060.60, 5.6%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Supreme Industries Ltd. (4,021.90, -4.3%), UNO Minda Ltd. (1,038.55, -4.1%) and Zomato Ltd. (239.75, -3.6%).

Movers and Shakers

16 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd. (82.73, 16.5%), CreditAccess Grameen Ltd. (999.50, 9.7%) and Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. (1,920.50, 9.2%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Supreme Industries Ltd. (4,021.90, -4.3%), Bharti Hexacom Ltd. (1,302.35, -1.7%) and Hatsun Agro Products Ltd. (954.80, -1.6%).

United Breweries Ltd. (2,060.60, 5.6%) was trading at 6.9 times of weekly average. RBL Bank Ltd. (158.18, 2.0%) and Sanofi India Ltd. (5,400, -0.7%) were trading with volumes 5.3 and 5.0 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

1 stock took off, crossing 52 week highs, while 7 stocks tanked below their 52 week lows.

Stock touching their year highs included - Biocon Ltd. (401.55, 2.0%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - MRF Ltd. (1,13,502.10, -0.4%) and ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Ltd. (1,0974.40, -2.7%).

18 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd. (82.73, 16.5%) and Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. (1,920.50, 9.2%). 5 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Zomato Ltd. (239.75, -3.6%) and Sapphire Foods India Ltd. (314.25, -1.2%).

 
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The Baseline US
19 Jan 2025
2024 was a banner year for the S&P500. Will 2025 be different?

The rise of the S&P 500 index is supposed to reflect the performance of a diversified group of stocks and sectors. But since the 2010s, it's been more like a Big 7 index, with its rise driven by the most powerful, primarily tech companies. In 2024, the Magnificent 7 -Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms and Tesla - accounted for more than half of the index's gains.

The index has delivered annual returns of approximately 25% in the last two years. If this growth rate holds up, investors could potentially double their dollars every three years by investing in one of the S&P 500 ETFs. According to Trendlyne, returns were even higher for growth or momentum ETFs, some of which delivered over 35% returns in 2024.

But now, analysts are waiting for the other shoe to drop. Valuations have ballooned, especially for the Magnificent 7, while revenues in promising new areas have failed to materialize. Even superstar investorWarren Buffet has increased cash reserves significantly to over $300 billion, around 28% of total assets.

Volatility worries are also turning up in analyst reports. Donald Trump, the incoming US President, with his all-caps social media pronouncements ("TIKTOK IS LESS OF A DANGER TO THE USA THAN META (FACEBOOK!), WHICH IS A TRUE ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE"), and his impulsiveness, makes market watchers nervous. The S&P 500 is trading at a discount of around 3% from its December high, ahead of Trump's swearing in on January 20.

Commenting on long-term treasury yields nearing 5% levels, Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global, said, “80% of the increase in long rates since September has been driven by worries about fiscal policy (under Trump).” The Trump administration is likely to give analysts at least a few sleepless nights this year.

AI was in the driver's seat in 2024. What happens now?

More than 40% of companies in the index mentioned “AI” during earnings calls as they race to stay competitive in this once in a generation technology shift. NVIDIA, a leading player in AI chips, saw its valuation nearly triple in one year.

According to a Citigroup report on AI, more than half (54%) of the jobs in the finance sector have a high potential for automation. Other sectors with significant automation potential include insurance (48%), energy (43%), capital markets (40%), and travel (38%).

The Mag 7 drove gains for the S&P 500 in 2024. But AI for all its hype, has yet to deliver the money. The 2025 outlook for big tech is less rosy, with rising expenses and little to no return from AI-based services so far. Trendlyne’s Forecaster predicts a modest 7.3% median upside for the Mag 7 in 2025, a notable decline from the median return of over 50% in 2024.

Mag 7’s share of S&P 500 market cap has tripled over the past decade

The winners: semiconductors, healthcare, pharma led industry performance in 2024

Over the past year, semiconductors, electronic equipment, healthcare services, specialty pharma and airlines were the top performers, soaring 70% and more. Semiconductor and electronic equipment companies were fueled by the growing demand for AI applications, 5G networks, and the Internet of Things (IoT), while airline companies benefitted from more travel. Tourists were getting sprayed with water in Barcelona, and the normally mild Japanese were complaining about local transport services being overwhelmed. But tourist traffic kept growing.

Healthcare services and specialty pharma also witnessed strong growth, rising by 73.5% and 70.3%, respectively, over the past year. 

Semiconductors lead with a 93.8% rise, while oil, steel, and discount retailers lag

On the other hand, discount retailers, alcoholic beverages, and steel were among the laggards. Companies like Dollar Tree and Five Below were impacted due to slower consumer spending.

In 2021, the average American over 21 consumed alcohol in an amount equivalent to over 600 standard drinks. But recent state health warnings, and shifts in behavior towards non-alcoholic drinks among younger Americans, is hurting the alcohol industry. Meanwhile, cable/ satellite and steel industries declined by over 13% in the past year.

Analysts predict modest gains for the S&P 500 in 2025

For 2025, the median forecast for S&P hints at a modest outlook, with the index projected to reach 6,600, an 8.2% return. Wells Fargo's high estimate points to a 14% return, while UBS' conservative estimate suggests only a 5% gain. Interestingly, no forecasts predict a negative return for the year. 

Wells Fargo predicts street high S&P 500 target of 7,007 for 2025

Goldman Sachs highlights the correlation between corporate revenue growth and nominal GDP growth, saying, “Corporate revenue growth (at the index level) typically moves in line with nominal GDP growth. Our estimate of 5% sales growth for the S&P 500 is consistent with our forecasts for 2.5% real GDP growth and for inflation to cool to 2.4% by the end of next year.”

The incoming Trump presidency could shake up markets with tax cuts, tariffs, and deregulation

From Trump’s inauguration in 2017 to his final day in office, the S&P 500 rose at a CAGR of 13.8%. This was a significant rise even with the pandemic selloff in March 2020, which saw the market’s worst period in decades. Trump’s 2024 re-election can mean more action on tariffs, deportations, deregulation, and tax cuts.

Trump’s 2017 tax cuts increased deficits, with the US trade deficit rising by 41.2% between 2016-2020, the highest since 2008. If Trump's new tax plans are implemented as expected, US debt might rise to 141% of GDP by 2034, compared to 134% without any policy changes. If all his tax promises are fulfilled, debt could increase even more, reaching 150% of GDP.

The stricter immigration rules Trump wants may reduce the labor supply, affecting sectors like hospitality, agriculture, and technology, which rely heavily on foreign labor. Companies reliant on Chinese imports could see a rise in raw material costs with tariffs, which may squeeze profit margins, particularly in the technology, consumer electronics, and manufacturing sectors. But relaxed antitrust regulations may boost mergers, especially in tech, healthcare, and energy.

Trump is promising big changes. The road from promises to policies however, is long and arduous, especially with the thin majorities the Republicans have in the House and Senate.

 
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The Baseline
17 Jan 2025
Five Interesting Stocks Today - January 17, 2025
By Trendlyne Analysis

1. L&T Technology Services:

This IT consulting & software firm surged over 8% on Thursday following the announcement of its Q3 results. Eight large deals secured over the past quarter drove this increase. CEO Amit Chadha further fueled the rise by assuring investors that the company is on track to achieve its $2 billion revenue target in the medium term with an EBIT margin of 17-18%.

In Q3, the company reported sequential revenue growth of 1.8%, reaching Rs 2,687 crore, while net profit rose by 0.9% to Rs 322 crore. The profit remained flat QoQ, primarily due to wage hikes and one-time costs associated with the Intelliswift acquisition. Although revenue for the quarter aligned with Forecaster estimates, net profit fell short of estimates by 3.1%. 

LTTS operates across three segments: mobility, sustainability, and technology, with each segment contributing roughly equal revenue. Over the past quarter, the firm won two large deals in mobility. It also secured two new deals in the sustainability segment. Additionally, it announced three deal wins in the technology segment. 

Regarding future deals, CEO Amit Chadha said, “LTTS is seeing a good number of large deals in the pipeline across all three segments.” He also emphasised that FY26 will outpace FY25 in terms of deal wins. Chadha is confident in the firm's outlook of achieving 10% revenue growth in FY25, including the contribution of Intelliswift.

Post Q3 results, Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on LTTS. Analysts at Sharekhan expect the firm to witness a higher growth trajectory supported by the Intelliswift acquisition, which opens avenues to service three new sectors: retail, fintech, and healthcare. With a target price of Rs 6,500, the stock has a potential upside of over 20%.

2. Biocon:

This biotechnology company has risen by over 6% in the past week and touched a 52-week high of Rs 397.8 today. On January 12th, the company's Malaysian subsidiary received USFDA approval for its insulin units. Motilal Oswal notes that after this approval, all the company’s key biosimilar sites are USFDA-compliant, improving its prospects in the US market. The approval of the Malaysian site opens up commercial opportunities for its ‘B-Aspart’ (synthetic insulin) drug, whose US market size is estimated at $800 million (approximately Rs 6,640 crore).

The company had reported a net loss and a flat revenue in Q2FY25 due to delayed approvals for the US market and increased financial leverage. However, Trendlyne Forecaster estimates the company’s revenue to rise by 9.2% in Q3FY25. HSBC Securities expects an operational turnaround for Biocon driven by multiple catalysts, including its strong pipeline of biosimilars and a recovery in the generics sector, fueled by high-value launches such as generic GLP-1 products (used for weight loss and diabetes treatment). The company also appears on a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

Kedar Upadhye, Chief Financial Officer of the company, discussed the high debt situation in the biologics space, “Net debt in Biologics, which was around Rs 10,800 crore, has now decreased by about Rs 410 crore as of September 30th. Capex for the year is expected to be between Rs 750-830 crore, with half allocated to maintenance and the other half to expanding insulin capacity in Malaysia, driven by strong demand and pricing in global markets.” 

Motilal Oswal has upgraded Biocon to a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 430. The brokerage forecasts a 21% EBITDA CAGR over FY25-27. Given the focus on compliance and the potential business from upcoming products, it has raised the EV/EBITDA multiple for the biologics business to 22x on a 12-month forward basis. Additionally, it notes that timely approval of 'B-Aspart' could offer further upside to biologics sales over FY25-27. It expects Biocon’s potential sales from this product to reach at least $80-100 million (approximately Rs 664 crore to Rs 830 crore).

3. PCBL Chemical:

This petro-products maker has declined by 9.8% over the past week after announcing its Q3FY25 results on January 10. During the quarter, its net profit fell 37.1% YoY to Rs 93.1 crore due to higher material and finance costs, employee benefits and other expenses. Revenue was up 21.3% YoY at Rs 2,010 crore. The company’s net profit missed Forecaster estimates by 7.2%, while revenue missed estimates by 2.3%.

During the December quarter, revenue growth was driven by increased volumes (up 5% YoY at 143,500 MT) and the inclusion of the Aquapharm business. PCBL Chemical acquired Pune-based specialty water chemicals maker Aquapharm Chemicals in January 2024, marking its foray into the global specialty segments including water treatment chemicals and oil & gas chemicals.

PCBL’s carbon black segment (which contributes to over 81% of the total revenue) grew by 2% YoY during the quarter. Sales growth was slower compared to Q2FY25 (up 21.5% YoY) due to a drop in realizations amid crude oil price fluctuations. Commenting on this, Raj Gupta, CFO of the company said, “Volatility in crude prices has affected our realizations, as our main raw material is derived from crude. Additionally, a change in product mix during the quarter also impacted our performance”. Meanwhile, the power segment declined by 1.5% YoY during the quarter. 

During Q3FY25, the company commissioned the second and final phase of its 20,000 MTPA (metric tons per annum) specialty chemical capacity at the Mundra Plant in Gujarat, increasing its total installed capacity to 790,000 MTPA. 

Following PCBL’s results announcement, Nuvama lowered its rating to ‘Hold’ with a target price of Rs 397. The brokerage believes PCBL’s long-term growth prospects look promising with business diversification, but high debt levels and a potential turnaround in Aquapharm remain key factors to monitor.

4. Anand Rathi Wealth:

This capital markets company fell 3.5% on January 13 following the announcement of its Q3FY25 results. Anand Rathi Wealth's (ARW) revenue increased by 29.9% YoY to Rs 237 crore, but it missed Trendlyne Forecaster estimates by 2.6%. Net profit grew 33.3% YoY to Rs 77.3 crore for the quarter. The company also declared a 1-for-1 bonus share issue, offering one bonus share for every equity share held.

The firm’s assets under management (AUM) grew by 38.8% to Rs 76,402 crore. Equity mutual funds (MF) made up 55% of the total AUM, up from 52% in Q3FY24, while debt MF accounted for 5%, down from 9%. The company had initially set an AUM guidance of Rs 72,000 crore for the year, but having exceeded this target, management has revised the guidance to Rs 80,000 crore.

The company’s MF AUM stands at Rs 45,875 crore, which accounts for 1.37% of the total market, valued at around Rs 30 lakh crore. Deputy CEO, Feroz Aziz mentioned that the company aims to increase its market share to 4%. He outlined that achieving this target relies on two key factors: attracting funds faster than the industry average and ensuring the company’s portfolio outperforms the average equity MF. He highlighted that ARW’s portfolio, consisting of 14 schemes, has outperformed the Nifty by around 7.5-8% this financial year, which should help achieve the target.

The company added 1,785 new client families over the past year, increasing its total client base to 11,426. While ARW's stock price has declined by 7.3% in the last month, it outperformed its industry by 4%.

Post results, Motilal Oswal maintains its 'Neutral' rating on the stock. The brokerage projects a revenue and AUM CAGR of 26%, and 28% for PAT over FY25-27, supported by the company’s strong cash flow of Rs 890 crore, a return on equity (RoE) above 40%, and a healthy balance sheet. With a target price of Rs 4,200, the stock has a potential upside of 5.7%.

5. Angel One:

This brokerage company has fallen 6.5% over the past week. The stock faced selling pressure after the company reported its lowest quarterly profit increase (8.1% YoY) in Q3FY25 since its 2020 listing, due to stricter regulations in the derivatives market. 

SEBI introduced new rules in October 2024 that limit retail investor participation in Futures & Options (F&O). These changes included raising the minimum contract size, cutting weekly expiries, requiring upfront premium payments, and stopping popular contracts. Angel One reported a 13% QoQ drop in F&O brokerage to Rs 662.7 crore, with the segment contributing 52.5% to the company’s total revenue in Q3FY25.

Angel One’s revenue increased by 19.1% YoY to Rs 1,263.8 crore. The company also announced a dividend of Rs 11 per equity share, totaling Rs 99.3 crore. This represents 35.3% of the consolidated net profit for Q3FY25.

Dinesh Thakkar, Managing Director of Angel One, stated, “Although a few regulations introduced this quarter caused a temporary industry-wide impact, our aggressive client acquisition strategy, along with the normalization of client activity, will fuel renewed growth momentum in the coming quarters.”

Motilal Oswal lowered its target price while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating. The revised target price of Rs 3,200 suggests a potential upside of 28.2% from the current market price. The brokerage says that Angel One has managed to maintain its profitability by changing its pricing to cover the impact of fee transparency regulations.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
17 Jan 2025
Market closes lower, AstraZeneca gets CDSCO approval to import and sell Soliris drug in India
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 23,203.20 (-108.6, -0.5%) , BSE Sensex closed at 76,619.33 (-423.5, -0.6%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 21,680.25 (-34.3, -0.2%). Market breadth is neutral. Of the 2,394 stocks traded today, 1,205 were gainers and 1,152 were losers.

Indian indices closed lower, with the benchmark Nifty 50 index closing at 23,202 points. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose 1.8% and closed at 15.8 points. Infosys' net profit grew 4.6% QoQ to Rs 6,806 crore in Q3FY25, while revenue increased 1.9% QoQ to Rs 41,764 crore.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green. S&P BSE Energy and Nifty Oil & Gas closed higher. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Fertilizers emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 2.3%.

European indices are trading higher. Major Asian indices closed mixed. US index futures are trading in the green, indicating a positive start to the trading session. Truist Financial Corp, Schlumberger NV, Fastenal, and Wipro are set to report their earnings later today.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like Minda Corp, PTC Industries, and Equitas Small Finance Bank are in the overbought zone.

  • Steel Strips Wheels falls sharply as its revenue declines by 3.2% YoY to Rs 1,074.7 crore in Q3FY25, missing Forecaster estimates by 2.9%. Net profit drops by 19.7% YoY to Rs 477.1 crore during the quarter. It appears in a screener of stocks near their 52-week low.

  • Geojit BNP Paribas maintains its 'Buy' call on Avenue Supermarts with a target price of Rs 4,107 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 13.4%. The brokerage believes the company's strong balance sheet and operational efficiency will support ongoing store expansions, helping revenue growth. It expects the firm's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 17.6% over FY25-27.

  • AstraZeneca Pharma India gets approval from the Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation (CDSCO) to import and sell Eculizumab (Soliris) in India. The drug treats two rare blood disorders that can lead to blood clots, organ damage, kidney failure, and severe complications.

  • OPEC's share of India's crude oil imports increased to 51.5% in 2024, marking its first rise in nine years, while Russia's share remained stable at 36%. India's total oil imports rose by 4.3% YoY to 4.8 million barrels per day. However, Russia's share is expected to decline in 2025 following new US sanctions on Russian producers and tankers.

  • Ganesh Housing Corp's Q3FY25 net profit grows 60% YoY to Rs 160.8 crore, helped by inventory destocking, tax returns of Rs 54.8 crore and lower employee benefits, finance, and depreciation & amortisation costs. Revenue increases 44% YoY to Rs 264.1 crore during the quarter. It features in a screener of stocks with improving return on capital employed (RoCE) over the past two years.

  • Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) rises as it signs an agreement with six entities to execute and operate the 900 MW Upper Karnali hydro-electric power project in Nepal.

  • Aether Industries rises sharply as its net profit surges by 149% YoY to Rs 43.4 crore in Q3FY25, led by inventory destocking. Revenue grows 40% YoY to Rs 233.3 crore, driven by improvements in the large-scale manufacturing, contract manufacturing, and contract research & manufacturing services (CRAMS) segments. It features in a screener of stocks with improving cash flow for the past two years.

  • Umang Nahata, CEO of Mastek, highlights the company's target to boost margins by 200 bps to 19% over the next two years. He anticipates an improvement in performance in Q4, as wage hikes in Q3 impacted margins by 160 bps. Nahata adds that the company is exploring investments in Europe through tuck-in acquisitions.

  • C.E. Info Systems (MapMyIndia) partners with Qualcomm Technologies to develop advanced automotive solutions under the ‘Make in India’ initiative. MapMyIndia will use Qualcomm's Snapdragon auto connectivity platform to create cost-effective telematics, enhancing connectivity and safety for the mass market.

  • Metro Brands is falling as its Q3FY25 net profit declines 3.3% YoY to Rs 94.6 crore, caused by higher employee benefits, finance, and depreciation & amortisation expenses. However, revenue grows 11.5% YoY to Rs 726.3 crore, helped by increased sales due to the festive and wedding season. It appears in a screener of stocks where promoters have reduced their shareholding by more than 2% QoQ.

  • Havells India rises as its revenue grows by 10.8% YoY to Rs 4,889 crore in Q3FY25, driven by an increase in switchgear, cables, lighting & fixtures, electrical consumer durables, and Lloyd consumer segments. However, net profit falls by 3.3% YoY to Rs 278.3 crore due to higher raw material, employee benefits, and depreciation & amortisation expenses. It appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased their holding in the past quarter.

  • The World Bank, in its Global Economic Prospects report, states that India will continue to be the world's fastest-growing economy over the next two years despite a slowdown. It maintains its previous growth forecast of 6.7% for FY26. The report also highlights that GDP growth in the broader South Asian region will likely reach 6.2% in 2025 and 2026, primarily driven by India's strong performance.

  • AIA Engineering's board of directors approves setting up two Hi-Chrome Grinding Media manufacturing facilities in China and Ghana with a capacity of 50,000 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) each and a capex of $50 million (~ Rs 432.9 crore) through its subsidiary, Vega Industries (Middle East). The company is also considering setting up similar facilities in Indonesia and other locations.

  • Capital Infra Trust’s shares debut on the bourses at a 1% discount to the issue price of Rs 100. The Rs 1,578 crore IPO received bids for 2.8 times the total shares on offer.

  • Hatsun Agro Products falls sharply as its Q3FY25 net profit declines 28.7% YoY to Rs 40.9 crore due to higher employee benefits, finance, and depreciation & amortisation expenses. However, revenue grows 6.4% YoY to Rs 2,012 crore during the quarter. It shows up in a screener of stocks near their 52-week lows.

  • UBS upgrades APL Apollo Tubes to a 'Buy' rating with a higher target price of Rs 1,900. The brokerage believes the company could positively surprise the market with sustained demand momentum. It also notes that hot rolled coils (HRC) prices, which are typically inversely correlated with APL volumes, have dropped around 14% YoY in the last 6 months, which is positive for the company’s volume growth.

  • HFCL secures an advance work order worth Rs 2,501.3 crore from Bharat Sanchar Nigam (BSNL) for BharatNet Phase III in Punjab. The project involves design, construction, and maintenance and has a three-year construction timeline.

  • Bajaj Healthcare surges more than 10% as it receives exclusive rights from Threotech to manufacture, distribute and sell the finished formulation of Magnesium L Threonate. The drug is used to treat depression, Alzheimer's disease, and age-related memory loss and has a market size of $438 million.

  • Bharat Petroleum Corp rises as it finalises a Rs 31,802 crore loan from an SBI-led consortium to fund a petrochemical complex and expand refinery capacity at Bina, Madhya Pradesh. The consortium includes the State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Union Bank of India, Canara Bank, Bank of India, and Export-Import Bank of India.

  • Citi initiates a 'Buy' rating on Aadhar Housing Finance with a target price of Rs 565. The brokerage expects steady growth in assets under management (AUM) at a 16% CAGR over the next 4-6 years and highlights its diversified distribution. Meanwhile, it points out the risks of promoter dilution and the increasing share of informal self-employed borrowers.

  • LTIMindtree is falling sharply as its net profit declines 13.2% QoQ to Rs 1,085.4 crore in Q3FY25, helped by lower finance costs. Revenue grows 1.5% QoQ to Rs 9,873.4 crore, led by improvements in the banking, financial services, & insurance (BFSI), manufacturing & resources, consumer business, and healthcare, life sciences & public services segments. It shows up in a screener of stocks where insiders sold their stakes.

  • Reliance Industries is rising as its revenue grows by 7% YoY to Rs 2.4 lakh crore in Q3FY25, driven by improvements in the oil to chemicals (O2C), retail and digital services segments. Net profit rises 7.4% YoY to Rs 18,540 crore, surpassing the Forecaster estimates by 3.1%. It features in a screener of stocks outperforming their industry price change in the quarter.

  • Axis Bank is falling sharply as its Q3FY25 net profit misses Forecaster estimates by 2.6%, despite growing 3.8% YoY to Rs 6,303.8 crore. Revenue increases 10.2% YoY to Rs 36,926.1 crore, helped by improvements in the treasury, corporate, and retail banking segments. The bank's asset quality improves as its gross NPA declines by 12 bps YoY.

  • Infosys' net profit grows 4.6% QoQ to Rs 6,806 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 1.9% QoQ to Rs 41,764 crore, attributed to improvements in the financial services, retail, communication, energy, utilities, resources & services, manufacturing, hi-tech, and life sciences segments. It features in a screener of stocks with increasing net profit and profit margin (QoQ).

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 23,184.10 (-127.7, -0.6%), BSE Sensex was trading at 77,069.19 (26.4, 0.0%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 21,609.95 (-104.6, -0.5%).

  • Market breadth is sharply down. Of the 1,902 stocks traded today, 616 were on the uptrend, and 1,232 went down.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include IDBI Bank Ltd. (84.01, 5.5%), Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (4,116.60, 5.1%) and Macrotech Developers Ltd. (1,176.95, 4.3%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Infosys Ltd. (1,815.45, -5.9%), PB Fintech Ltd. (1,724.40, -4.9%) and Axis Bank Ltd. (991.05, -4.5%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

14 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included BLS International Services Ltd. (501.85, 11.2%), NBCC (India) Ltd. (95.31, 8.5%) and Gujarat State Fertilizer & Chemicals Ltd. (208.86, 7.4%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Axis Bank Ltd. (991.05, -4.5%), Aether Industries Ltd. (821.65, -3.8%) and Sonata Software Ltd. (571, -2.5%).

Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. (364, 3.7%) was trading at 53.8 times of weekly average. Go Digit General Insurance Ltd. (290.70, -0.4%) and Bharat Dynamics Ltd. (1,276.25, 6.2%) were trading with volumes 14.1 and 4.5 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

1 stock made 52 week highs, while 4 stocks were underachievers and hit their 52 week lows.

Stock touching their year highs included - Biocon Ltd. (393.70, 0.1%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Axis Bank Ltd. (991.05, -4.5%) and Relaxo Footwears Ltd. (579.75, 0.5%).

17 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Bharat Dynamics Ltd. (1,276.25, 6.2%) and Manappuram Finance Ltd. (193.75, 5.8%). 11 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. (1,758.60, -2.6%) and Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. (4,124.30, -2.0%).

 
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The Baseline
16 Jan 2025
By Aditi Priya

2024 was an eventful one for investors. The Nifty 50 and Sensex delivered gains of 8.8% and 8.2%, respectively, while broader markets outperformed. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices rose by more than 20%.

However, the final quarter gave investors whiplash, with the Nifty 50 declining nearly 12% from its September peak. Disappointing quarter results and high foreign fund outflows in October and November drove markets down. Still, the year ended with positive returns, marking the ninth consecutive year of gains for the Indian equity market. 

Of the 130 industries tracked on Trendlyne’s industry dashboard, 87 outperformed the Nifty 50 index in 2024. In this Chart of the Week, we highlight the top-performing industries and their major contributors over the past year.

Manufacturing and industrial sectors see steady growth in 2024

India's manufacturing and industrial sectors were the stars of 2024. Industries like heavy electrical equipment, consumer electronics, industrial machinery, and other electrical equipment rose over 70% in the past year.

The manufacturing PMI consistently stayed above the 50-mark, indicating sustained expansion in these industries. Increasing foreign investments, an expanding domestic market, and government initiatives like ‘Make in India’ and ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ drove this growth. 

Among standout companies in these industries, Siemens (heavy electrical equipment) rose 39.8% over the past year. It also reported strong financial performance over the past 12 months. Its trailing twelve month (TTM) revenue and net profit increased by 38.5% and 13.7%. The surge in demand for electrification and data centers, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), led to high growth.

Dixon Technologies (consumer electronics) capitalized on the PLI scheme to expand its mobile phone manufacturing segment, boosting its revenue share in this category from 12% in FY20 to 62% in FY24.

Jyoti CNC, a metal cutting CNC machines manufacturer, launched its IPO in January 2024. The IPO received a strong response from investors, with an overall subscription of 40.5 times. Since its listing, the company has delivered returns of 260.9%. The rally is fueled by the company's strong financial performance, growing order book, and rising global demand for CNC machines, especially in aerospace. Jyoti CNC's total order book reached Rs 4,289.3 crore by the end of Q2FY25.

Similarly, Waaree Energies, a leading player in the other electrical equipment industry, launched its IPO in October 2024. As India's largest solar photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturer, the IPO saw high demand and was oversubscribed 76.3 times, including 11.3 times by retail investors. Since its debut, the company has delivered impressive returns of over 73.6%. As of September 30, 2024, its order book stood at 20 GW.

Financial services surged due to strong foreign inflows and increased retail participation

The banking and finance sector, including industries like exchanges, capital markets, and other financial services, saw notable performance improvements over the past year. 

In 2024, strong foreign institutional inflows (in seven out of 12 months) and increased retail participation drove India's stock markets to record highs. New demat accounts rose 33% in 2024 compared to 2023, bringing the total to 18.5 crore.

Top performers from exchanges, capital markets, and other financial services industries include Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange, Motilal Oswal, KFIN Technologies and Central Depository Services (CDSL). 

BSE shares surged 158.6% in 2024, fueled by its expansion of derivatives offerings and the anticipation of the National Stock Exchange’s (NSE) IPO. SEBI's regulatory changes favoring BSE's weekly Sensex options and strong financial performance also contributed to this growth. BSE’s TTM revenue and net profit grew by 17.1% and 119.3%, respectively.

CDSL maintained its dominant position with a 73% market share in demat accounts (September 2024). NSE's potential IPO boosted positive sentiment toward market infrastructure firms like CDSL, anticipating benefits from increased market activity.

Credit rating agency CRISIL's share price rallied by over 41% in 2024 after it acquired a 4% stake in Online PSB Loans (OPL) for Rs 33.3 crore, enhancing its presence in the digital credit infrastructure ecosystem. The company also reported strong financial results over the past year, with a 10.4% TTM net profit increase, and maintained consistent dividend payouts.

The services sector thrived due to rising demand and increased digital adoption

The services sector, including industries like hotels, internet software & services, and internet & catalogue retail industries, showed strong performance in 2024. The PMI for the services sector surged to a four-month high of 60.8 in December 2024, up from 58.4 in November, reflecting a strong rise in demand. 

The hospitality industry benefited from a rebound in travel and tourism, while internet-based services experienced growth due to increased digital adoption and e-commerce activities. Top performers include Indian Hotel Company, Chalet Hotels, Zomato, Swiggy, Brainbees Solutions and PB Fintech.

Indian Hotels Company's (IHCL) share price surged 75.8% in 2024. The company unveiled its ‘Accelerate 2030’ strategy in November 2024, aiming to double its hotel count and revenue by FY30. This plan includes expanding its portfolio to over 700 hotels, up from 350 in FY24, and increasing consolidated revenue to Rs 15,000 crore. 

Zomato's share price rose over 74% over the past year as the company reported a 249.4% increase in net profit TTM. In December 2024, Zomato joined India's BSE Sensex index, becoming the first new-age tech company to do so.

In 2024, Swiggy and Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) launched their IPOs in the Indian market. Both IPOs received significant investor interest and were oversubscribed. Swiggy expanded its quick commerce services via Instamart, aiming for 10-minute grocery deliveries. The company increased warehouse size and cut delivery times, with quick commerce now making up 40% of its food delivery volume since 2020.

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
16 Jan 2025
Market closes higher, HDFC Life's net profit grows 14.6% YoY to Rs 421.3 crore in Q3
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 23,311.80 (98.6, 0.4%), BSE Sensex closed at 77,042.82 (318.7, 0.4%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 21,714.55 (163.4, 0.8%). Market breadth is overwhelmingly positive. Of the 2,393 stocks traded today, 1,749 were in the positive territory and 609 were negative.

Indian indices closed higher, with the benchmark Nifty 50 index closing at 23,311.8 points. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose 1.3% and closed at 15.5 points. Bharat Dynamics closed sharply higher as it bagged an order worth Rs 2,960 crore from the Ministry of Defence to supply medium-range surface-to-air missiles for the Indian Navy.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green. Nifty Metal and Nifty PSU Bank closed higher. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Transportation emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 2.3%.

European indices are trading higher, except for Spain’s IBEX 35 and Germany’s DAX. Major Asian indices closed mixed. US index futures are trading mixed, indicating a cautious start to the trading session. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, U.S. Bancorp, and UnitedHealth Group are set to report their earnings later today.

  • L&T Technology Services sees a long buildup in its January 30 futures series, with open interest increasing by 23.8% and a put-call ratio of 0.7.

  • Mastek's revenue rises 10.9% YoY to Rs 869.5 crore in Q3FY25, driven by improvements in the UK & Europe and North Americas operations. Net profit grows 25.8% YoY to Rs 94.7 crore during the quarter. It features in a screener of stocks with increasing net profit and profit margin (QoQ).

  • Alok Industries is falling as its net loss expands by 18.7% YoY to Rs 273 crore in Q3FY25 due to higher finance and power & fuel costs. Revenue plunges 30.5% YoY to Rs 870.6 crore during the quarter. It shows up in a screener of stocks with low Piotroski scores.

  • HDFC Life Insurance surges as its net profit grows 14.6% YoY to Rs 421.3 crore in Q3FY25. However, revenue declines 36.5% YoY to Rs 16,979.3 crore, impacted by lower earnings from funds managed under the shareholders’ account. It shows up in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased their holding in the past quarter.

  • Bernstein notes that 2024 was a strong year for internet companies, with the sector delivering over 50% returns. The brokerage expects this trend to continue in 2025. It has an 'Outperform' rating on Zomato, Swiggy, and Info Edge, with target prices of Rs 315, Rs 635, and Rs 8,630, respectively.

  • Sterling & Wilson Renewable Energy surges as it posts a net profit of Rs 14.8 crore in Q3FY25 compared to a net loss of Rs 63.8 crore in Q3FY24, helped by lower employee benefits and finance costs. Revenue grows 3x YoY to Rs 1,842.7 crore, driven by improvements in the engineering, procurement & construction (EPC) and operation & maintenance service segments. It features in a screener of stocks with decreasing promoter pledges.

  • DB Corp is falling as its net profit declines 4.7% YoY to Rs 118.2 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue falls 1.4% YoY to Rs 655.6 crore, impacted by the printing, publishing and allied businesses. It shows up in a screener of stocks with weakening technicals and share price decline.

  • Gland Pharma receives an establishment inspection report (EIR) from the US FDA following a good manufacturing practices (GMP) inspection at its Dundigal facility in Hyderabad in July 2024, marking the closure of the inspection.

  • Ashwani Kumar, Managing Director & CEO of UCO Bank, states the bank has received approval from the Government of India to raise Rs 2,000 crore through a QIP, which will result in a 3% reduction in the government’s stake. He adds that the bank aims to achieve a 75% credit-deposit (CD) ratio, a target in line with their previous guidance.

  • Indian Railway Finance Corp rises sharply after signing a Rs 250 crore lease agreement with NTPC to finance eight bogie open bottom rapid (BOBR) rakes. This marks the first phase of funding for 20 rakes under the General Purpose Wagon Investment Scheme (GPWIS).

  • Bharat Dynamics rises sharply as it bags an order worth Rs 2,960 crore from the Ministry of Defence (MoD) to supply medium-range surface-to-air missiles (MRSAM) for the Indian Navy.

  • EMS is rising sharply as it bags an order worth Rs 105.1 crore from Deltabulk Shipping India to develop, operate, and maintain the Multimodal Logistics Park (MMLP) in Nagpur on a design, build, finance, operate, and transfer (DBFOT) basis.

  • Rubicon Research, a leading player in the pharma sector, plans to raise Rs 500 crore through an initial public offering (IPO) to support inorganic growth, strategic initiatives, and loan repayment. The company recently acquired Alkem Laboratories' Pithampur (Madhya Pradesh) facility for Rs 149 crore through a slump sale.

  • Nazara Technologies rises sharply as its board of directors schedules a meeting on January 20 to consider and approve raising funds through a preferential issue of shares.

  • Punjab & Sind Bank is surging as its net profit grows 146.7% YoY to Rs 282 crore in Q3FY25, helped by lower employee benefits expenses. Revenue increases by 14.6% YoY to Rs 3,269.4 crore, led by improvements in the treasury and corporate banking segments. The bank's asset quality improves as its gross and net NPAs decline by 187 bps YoY and 55 bps YoY, respectively.

  • Gensol Engineering rises sharply as it partners with Refex Green Mobility (Refex eVeelz) to transfer 2,997 electric four-wheelers valued at Rs 315 crore. Refex eVeelz will integrate these into fleet operations and lease them to Blu-Smart Mobility.

  • According to a poll of analysts, the weakening Indian rupee could drive up inflation due to more expensive imports. They anticipate the Reserve Bank of India will make policy adjustments at its February meeting, though many now expect the rate cuts to be delayed until April-June. Since Trump's victory, the rupee has depreciated by about 3% against the rising US dollar in just over two months, marking a sharp shift from nearly two years of relative stability and low volatility.

  • GAIL (India) is rising as it enters a settlement agreement with SEFE Marketing & Trading Singapore worth $285 million (~ Rs 2464.4 crore). As per the agreement, the companies will withdraw the arbitration proceedings before the London Court of Arbitration.

  • Azad Engineering is surging as it bags an order worth $112 million (~ Rs 960 crore) from GE Vernova International, USA, to supply airfoils for advanced gas turbine engines.

  • Ceat falls sharply as its Q3FY25 net profit drops 46.5% YoY to Rs 97.1 crore due to higher raw material costs and other expenses. However, revenue increases 11.4% YoY to Rs 3,299.9 crore, surpassing the Forecaster estimates by 1%. It appears in a screener of stocks with improving book value over the past two years.

  • UBS upgrades Indus Towers to a 'Buy' rating with a target price of Rs 425. The brokerage notes the company is steadily adding towers to support Airtel's rural expansion. It adds that Vodafone Idea is paying Rs 800-1000 crore in dues per quarter and expects potential upside as VI increases tower uptake, improving the tenancy ratio.

  • Oracle Financial Services Software falls sharply as its Q3FY25 net profit declines 6.3% QoQ to Rs 541.3 crore due to higher employee benefits, travel, and professional expenses. However, revenue grows 0.4% QoQ to Rs 1,784.9 crore, helped by an improvement in the product licenses and related activities segment. It shows up in a screener of stocks with growing costs YoY for long-term projects.

  • Rail Vikas Nigam rises sharply as it receives a Rs 3,622.1 crore contract from Bharat Sanchar Nigam (BSNL) for BharatNet's middle-mile network. The project is under a design-build-operate-maintain (DBOM) model and involves a three-year construction phase and 10-year maintenance.

  • AXISCADES Technologies is rising as its board of directors appoints Alfonso Martinez as the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Managing Director (MD), effective January 20.

  • L&T Technology Services surges as its net profit grows 0.9% QoQ to Rs 322.4 crore in Q3FY25. Revenue increases 3.1% QoQ to Rs 2,653 crore, driven by improvements in the sustainability and tech segments. It features in a screener of stocks with PEG lower than industry PEG.

  • The market opened on an upbeat note. Nifty 50 was trading at 23,335.75 (122.6, 0.5%), BSE Sensex was trading at 77,158.33 (434.3, 0.6%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 21,756.15 (205.0, 1.0%).

  • Market breadth is surging up. Of the 1,939 stocks traded today, 1,737 were gainers and 178 were losers.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd. (411.15, 10.6%), L&T Technology Services Ltd. (5,244.40, 8.1%) and IDBI Bank Ltd. (79.63, 7.9%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Oracle Financial Services Software Ltd. (10,189.85, -3.4%), Trent Ltd. (6,211.55, -2.8%) and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. (1,302.75, -2.6%).

Movers and Shakers

24 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Ircon International Ltd. (220.41, 16%), Jupiter Wagons Ltd. (494.75, 14.2%) and Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Ltd. (326.90, 11.7%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Oracle Financial Services Software Ltd. (10,189.85, -3.4%), Ceat Ltd. (3,044, -0.4%) and Endurance Technologies Ltd. (2,070, -0.3%).

L&T Technology Services Ltd. (5,244.40, 8.1%) was trading at 8.3 times of weekly average. HDFC Life Insurance Company Ltd. (641.40, 7.9%) and Punjab & Sind Bank (49.48, 6.9%) were trading with volumes 8.1 and 8.0 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

1 stock took off, crossing 52 week highs, while 4 stocks tanked below their 52 week lows.

Stock touching their year highs included - Biocon Ltd. (393.15, 2.9%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Asian Paints Ltd. (2,215.60, -0.6%) and Relaxo Footwears Ltd. (579.10, 0.4%).

21 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including L&T Technology Services Ltd. (5,244.40, 8.1%) and HDFC Life Insurance Company Ltd. (641.40, 7.9%). 8 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Oracle Financial Services Software Ltd. (10,189.85, -3.4%) and Kalyan Jewellers India Ltd. (539.20, -2.9%).

 
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The Baseline
15 Jan 2025
A turnaround for Indian pharma in the US | Screener: High momentum pharma stocks
By Tejas MD

The fireworks were soggy for Indian markets in the new year. In the first 15 days of 2025, the Nifty 50 slipped into correction territory, down over 10% from its highs, while the Indian rupee tumbled to a record low, breaching 86 against the US dollar.

According to Bloomberg, the mood will be muted this earnings season as well, as Q3FY25 results could bring a flurry of downgrades.

Pictet Asset Management portfolio manager Prashant Kothari, who oversees about $1 billion in an Indian equity fund, says, “We have had very good economic expansion in India, but there may be clouds on the horizon.” He adds that opportunities in India "are not juicy."

But falling valuations may not be a bad thing, if you know where to look. Warren Buffett loved buying great stocks at discount valuations, and famously said, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." 

One defensive sector that gets interesting in tough times is pharma. Since 2005, the Nifty 50 has delivered an annual negative return three times, but the Nifty Pharma index has outperformed the benchmark index all three times. 

So which stocks are looking especially strong ahead of Q3FY25 results? Let’s dive in. 

In this week’s Analyticks,

  • Indian pharma companies are adapting - and winning - in a changing US market
  • Screener: Pharma stocks with high momentum and durability scores, with rising operating profit margin in Q2

US market recovery gives Indian pharma a boost

Indian drug makers have seen booms and busts in the past 15 years, due to their heavy reliance on the US generics business. 

The problem with generics? A generic drug contains the same chemical substance as one originally protected by patents. Its main appeal is its lower price.

So competition in the generic drug market is fierce. A single generic option usually causes a 40% fall in the drug's prices, and five to six generic players cause a 90% reduction. As a result, this segment has lower margins, and no product differentiation to bank on. 

Trendlyne’s share price history data shows that Nifty Pharma outperformed the Nifty 50 from 2010 to 2016. This was due to a sharp uptick in US generics sales, which Indian players benefitted from by exporting low-cost generic drugs to the US. 

Nifty Pharma outperforms the Nifty 50 in nine out of past 15 years

But the easy generics money soon ran out, and a slowdown took hold in 2016. US generics became less profitable due to stricter regulations by the US FDA. The regulator also encouraged more generics competition. Nifty Pharma posted negative returns from 2016 to 2019.

Post-Covid, Indian pharma companies pivoted towards specialty and complex generics segments in the US to beat the slowdown in generics sales. Industry leaders like Sun Pharma, Cipla, and Dr Reddy’s embraced this strategy.

This pivot led to Nifty Pharma's sharp rise of 34% in 2023, and 39% in 2024. Relatively smooth USFDA inspections have also contributed to this, allowing Indian drug makers to speed up product launches and enhance profitability in the competitive US market.

However, not all companies enjoyed similar success. Firms like Aurobindo Pharma and Alkem Labs attempted to diversify into specialty injectables and biosimilars but faced challenges. Weak demand and persistent supply chain issues have undermined their efforts, limiting revenue growth.

India vs US: Where is pharma's focus? 

Post-COVID, Indian companies have switched away from the broad generics space in the US, which had high competition, to complex generics (Cipla, Dr Reddy’s), specialty products (Sun Pharma), and peptides. 

Abhay Gandhi, Sun Pharma's CEO (North America Business), said in the Q2FY25 earnings call, “The US specialty business has grown YoY. The underlying prescription trends for the specialty business are strong.” 

This diversification strategy has fueled two growth engines - India and the US. In addition, the number of adverse classification outcomes from US FDA inspections fell in 2024 after a sharp uptick in 2019. 

USFDA’s red flags decrease in 2024

In 2024, 206 USFDA inspections were conducted, of which only 14 (6.6%) resulted in official action (OAI). The OAI percentage has fallen from 11% in 2019. An OAI from the USFDA greatly impacts the profitability and product launch timeline for drugmakers. 

US generics remain an important vertical. Several bestseller drugs are expected to go off-patent in the US, increasing the potential for generic alternatives. This could help offset any lower-than-expected India sales. The Indian pharmaceutical market's growth moderated to 7% in 2024. This was primarily due to a lack of price hikes on the National List of Essential Medicines products and a regulatory ban on 156 fixed-dose combination drugs. 

The US market, on the other hand, has picked up in the last few quarters after a period of underperformance. This was helped by strong sales of the complex generic cancer drug Revlimid (lenalidomide). 

In the generics space, companies must launch new complex generics to find the next blockbuster, which remains a concern. 

Pharma companies expected to post strong numbers in Q3

According to a Q3 result preview report by KR Choksey, pharma companies’ revenue is expected to grow 10.8% YoY, led by strong US business, and domestic growth.

The EBITDA margin is expected to expand 198 bps YoY, led by a favorable product mix and increased focus on complex products. Falling freight and raw material costs are also expected to help margins. The average price of raw materials has fallen around 25% YoY in Q3FY25 to $114/Kg. 

A diverse set of companies, from API manufacturers to branded generics manufacturers, are in the list of players expected to post positive revenue and net profit growth in Q3. 

Divi’s Labs expected to post high revenue and net profit growth

Mankind Pharma depends mainly on Indian market growth (over 90% of revenue share), and its Q3FY25 revenue and net profit are set to increase for the eighth quarter. Its outperformance in market growth with IPM is expected to continue in the chronic segment in Q3. 

Companies like Sun Pharma and Dr Reddy’s get a notable portion of their revenues from the US. While specialty products should drive revenue growth for Sun Pharma, new product launches remain key for Dr Reddy’s. 

Divi’s Labs and Lupin saw a sharp turnaround in the past two years. Divi’s Labs is benefitting from lower raw material prices and high demand in the custom synthesis segment. 

When it comes to Trendlyne’s DVM scores, these pharma companies boast high durability scores. 

Pharma companies have medium momentum scores despite a weak quarter

Despite a weak quarter, these pharma companies’ momentum scores remain in the ‘Medium’ category. Zydus Lifesciences has the highest DVM score. It has good durability, medium valuation, and momentum scores, making it a ‘Mid-range Performer.’ 

Screener: Pharma stocks with high momentum and durability with rising operating profit margin in Q2

Pharma stocks with high momentum scores and rising operating margins

As we enter the results season, we look at stocks from the pharmaceutical industry with good momentum and durability with rising operating profit margin growth in Q2FY25. This screener shows pharmaceutical stocks with high Trendlyne momentum and durability scores with rising operating profit margins in Q2FY25.

Major stocks that feature in the screener are Procter & Gamble Health, Lupin, Granules India, Ipca Laboratories, Mankind Pharma, Orchid Pharma, Innova Captab, and Caplin Point Laboratories. 

Lupin features in the screener with a good Trendlyne momentum score of 57 and a growth of 5.4 percentage points YoY in operating profit margin in Q2FY25. This pharma stock has a high momentum score, helped by an 18.7% rise in stock price over the past six months. The company’s operating margins improved due to lower freight costs, combined with a better mix of high-margin products, helped by new product launches like Mirabegron in the US and Luforbec in the UK.

Ipca Laboratories also appears in the screener after its operating profit margin grew by 3 percentage points YoY to 18.8% in Q2FY25. Operating margin improved, led by reduced raw material costs and a 25-30% cost reduction in active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) processes at its subsidiary, Unichem Laboratories. It also has a good Trendlyne Momentum score of 59, driven by a 28.7% surge in its stock price over the past six months.

You can find some popular screeners here.

Signing off this week,

The Trendlyne Team