HCL Technologies Ltd. share price target

Our investment case rests on the strength of the core business and its ability to generate cash.

HCLT reported healthy deal TCV—one of the highest Q1 deal TCVs and mega deal win in the early part of Jul’26. Management retained its guidance, despite a slightly better-than-expected top line and strong deal wins.

We expect HCLT to report a weak Q1FY27 with USD revenue declining ~2.0% QoQ to ~USD 3,608 Mn (+1.8% YoY). Our estimates are below street consensus, which expects -0.6% to - 1.2% QoQ CC decline.

HCL Technologies (HCLT) reported 1QFY27 revenue of USD3.6b, which declined 0.5% QoQ CC, above our estimate of 1.4% QoQ CC decline. EBIT margin came in at 16.9%, in line with our estimate of 16.9%.

HCLTech remains resilient in its core IT services despite a challenging macro environment, driven by strong cost takeout initiatives and productivity execution, with AI/GenAI embedded across most client engagements. However, near-term growth visibility is tempered by AI-driven disruption in traditional service lines, which management estimates could translate into a 23% portfolio-level revenue drag over time, alongside client-specific budget cutbacks in the US and reduced discretionary spending in the telecom sector. Geopolitical uncertainty and softness...

We recommend a HOLD rating on the stock

HCLT’s weak revenue guidance of 2.5% YoY CC (at the midpoint) vs. 3.9% YoY CC growth for FY26 is driven by Discretionary spend cuts in two telecom clients, budget cuts in one manufacturing and one retail client, AI-led deflation, weak exit run-rate and challenging macro.

HCL Tech posted Q4FY26 revenue of USD 3.68bn, down 3.3% QoQ but up 2.4% YoY, due to telecom client discretionary spend cuts and discontinuation of two SAP programs. Services held relatively firm at -0.1% QoQ (+4.2% YoY), while Software fell sharply 28% QoQ on seasonality and delayed procurement. EBIT margin came in at 16.5% (17.7% ex restructuring). For full-year basis, revenue grew 3.9% in constant currency to USD 14.7bn with services growing 4.8% mainly driven by IT & Business (+3.7% YoY) and ER&D (9.8% YoY). The AI narrative remains a key differentiator; annualized Advanced AI revenue reached USD 620mn, AI Force deployed across 75...

HCLT's Q4 performance was significantly below expectations, with revenue declining 3.3% QoQ CC versus our estimate of 2.0% and consensus of 1.6%. The miss was driven by weakness in the Services business, impacted by cancellation of discretionary programs in select telecom clients and termination of two SAP modernization engagements, which are expected to weigh on FY27E revenue by ~50 bps. Beyond these specific headwinds, subdued discretionary spending amid geopolitical uncertainty, the near-term deflationary impact of AI, and continued softness in the Software segment are likely to weigh on growth. Consequently, FY27E organic revenue...

Aggressive Scaling of Advanced-AI and 'AI Factory' Leadership - HCLTech is rapidly monetizing the generative AI tech shift, with its Advanced-AI segment reaching an annualized revenue run-rate of USD 620 million.

HCLT explicitly states FY27 is weaker than FY26. Due to (1) geopolitics and (2) Gen AI deflation. FY27 acceleration narrative fails first test

delivering industry-leading capabilities centered around digital, engineering, cloud and AI, powered by a broad portfolio of technology services and products. Q4FY26 & FY26 Performance: Revenues were at US$3,682 mn, -2.9% QoQ/ +5.3% YoY (in CC terms -3.3% QoQ/ +2.4% YoY). The services business revenue was down 0.1% QoQ / up 4.2% YoY CC. EBIT margin at 16.5%, was down ~202 bps QoQ, Services (IT & Business & ER&D services) margin at 16.2%, was down ~27 bps QoQ. PAT at 4,488 crore, -6.4% QoQ/ +4.2% YoY. For FY26, revenue was US$14,664 mn, +6% YoY (+3.9% YoY CC) with services business revenue up 4.8% YoY CC. EBIT...

HCL Technologies (HCLT) reported 4QFY26 revenue of USD3.7b, which declined 3.3% QoQ CC, below our estimate of 0.9% QoQ CC decline.

We recommend a BUY on the stock with a target price of Rs 1,860/share, implying an upside of ~10% from the CMP.

HCL Tech delivered a strong double-digit performance, driven by accelerated adoption of AI-led transformation, engineering services and large-scale digital modernisation, supported by robust deal momentum and deepening strategic partnerships. The management expects sustained revenue growth and stable profitability while continuing to invest in AI platforms, talent and go-to-market expansion. The company announced strategic acquisitions to strengthen its telecom engineering and data intelligence capabilities, further enhancing its products and...

Q3FY26 net new bookings at $3.0 bn (4-year high). 63% from Applications & ER&D — resilient demand pockets. $473 mn, 5-year mega deal improves medium-term visibility.

HCL Technologies delivered a standout Q3FY26, driven by resilient growth, strong deal bookings, and expanding AI leadership. Revenue rose 4.8% CC YoY to USD 3.8bn, supported by balanced momentum across services including engineering & software. ER&D services remained the key growth engine, reflecting rising demand for advanced AI, Physical AI, and custom silicon solutions. Net new bookings surged to USD 3bn, the highest in four years, highlighting sustained client confidence. Margins improved sequentially, backed by disciplined cost management and operating leverage which were partially offset by wage hikes and restructuring...

We recommend a BUY rating on the stock.

Much better-than-expected services and software QoQ performance. Raises guidance for services part and for the company for FY26

HCLT reported a beat on revenue, with growth of 4.2% QoQ CC (I-Sec: 2.2%, Cons: 2.8%) led by strong growth in its software products business aided by seasonal strength and continued healthy traction in ER&D and IT services despite seasonal headwinds from furloughs.