HDFC Life Insurance Company Ltd. share price target

APE grew by 9% y-o-y in Q4FY25, while VNB grew by 12% y-o-y. For FY25, APE grew 16% y-o-y, Individual APE grew by 18% and value of new business (VNB) grew by 13% y-o-y.

HDFCLIFE reported an overall steady performance in growth (Retail APE YoY growth – FY25: 18%; Q4FY25: 9.7%) and profitability (FY25 VNB margin: 25.6%; VNB growth: 13% YoY) despite the headwinds from new surrender regulation implementation and decline in the MFI-linked Credit Life segment.

HDFCLIFE reported below expectations APE growth of 9.7% YoY in Q4FY25 (up 17% YoY in FY25)

HDFC Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE) reported APE of INR51.9b (in line) in 4QFY25, up 10% YoY, driven by 9%/13% YoY growth in individual/group APE. For FY25, APE grew 16% YoY to INR154.8b.

A frontrunner in a growing industry

HDFC Life continues guide for 18-20% APE growth and >15% VNB growth in the next couple of quarters. APE growth remained healthy at 20% y-o-y while VNB grew by 14% y-o-y in 9MFY25.

HDFCLIFE reported an impressive performance in 9MFY25, with APE 1.6% above our estimate at Rs102.9bn, and VNB margin at 25.1% above our estimate of 24.5% resulting in a 4.2% beat on VNB at Rs25.9bn.

HDFCLIFE reported stronger-than-expected APE growth of 20%/12% YoY in 9MFY25/Q3FY25

HDFCLIFE reported broadly in-line numbers for H1FY25, with APE 3.6% above our estimate at Rs67.2bn however, VNB Margin at 24.6% missed our estimate of 25.1% resulting in largely in-line VNB at Rs16.6bn.

VNB margins lagged estimates, fell by ~200 bps y-o-y reported at 24.3% vs estimates of 25.4% due to adverse product mix and repricing of IRR downwards for some of the existing non-par savings & annuity products (one off item).

We maintain a Buy on HDFC Life with a revised PT of Rs.870. The company is confident of growing
retail APE higher than industry APE and doubling VNB every four years.

HDFC Life (HDFCLI) reported 18% growth in VNB YoY despite 113bps reduction in VNB margin to 25.1% in Q1FY25. This, along with strong 39% growth in non-par, 31% growth in individual protection and 22% growth in number of policies underline HDFCLI’s execution efforts as it aims to clock 18–20% VNB CAGR.

HDFC Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE) in 1QFY25 reported lower-than-expected
VNB margins at 25% (est. 26%), with absolute VNB increasing 18% YoY to
INR7.2b (in line with estimate).

HDFCLIFE reported broadly in-line results for Q1FY25, with APE at Rs28.6bn
(+23% YoY), coming in 4% above our estimates and more than offsetting the
slight margin miss at 25% (Emkay est.: 25.6%), leading to a ~2% beat in VNB
at Rs7.18bn (Emkay: Rs7bn).

HDFC Life reported broadly in-line performance, except VNB margins lagged estimates. APE grew by 23% y-o-y mainly driven by higher ULIP sales (up 99% y-o-y).