News from trendlyne

Market closes higher, Ashok Leyland to invest Rs 5,000 crore to develop batteries in India
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 24,625.05 (198.2, 0.8%), BSE Sensex closed at 80,364.49 (554.8, 0.7%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 22,713.55 (250.6, 1.1%). Market breadth is overwhelmingly positive. Of the 2,560 stocks traded today, 1,728 were in the positive territory and 788 were negative.

Indian indices closed higher after extending gains throughout the day. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, fell 3.9% and closed at 11.3 points. India’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 59.3 in August from 59.1 in July, reaching its highest level since February 2008, driven by strong demand and higher factory orders.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed higher. Nifty Auto and Nifty Capital Markets were among the top index gainers today. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Automobiles & Auto Components emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 2.5%.

Asian indices closed mixed. European indices are trading in the green, except for Spain’s IBEX 35. US index futures are trading flat. US markets are closed today due to Labor Day. Brent crude futures are trading higher amid concerns over Russian oil supply disruptions from Ukraine attacks and US sanctions, despite increased production from other countries.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like Maruti Suzuki, HBL Power Systems, UNO Minda, and Eicher Motors are in the overbought zone.

  • Nuvoco Vistas Corp rises as it plans to add a 4 million metric tonnes per annum (MMTPA) grinding mill at Arasmeta Cement Plant with a capex of Rs 200 crore. The new facility is expected to be operational by Q3FY27.

  • Eicher Motors rises sharply as its sales increase 55% YoY to 1.1 lakh units in August, driven by a 57% rise in domestic sales and a 39% growth in exports.

  • Ashok Leyland is rising as it plans to invest Rs 5,000 crore over the next seven to ten years to develop and manufacture next-generation batteries in India. The investment supports its electric vehicle portfolio and also serve the wider automotive and energy storage sectors.

  • EV two-wheeler makers like Ola Electric and Ather Energy rise sharply following positive developments at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in China and optimism around proposed GST reforms that could boost sales. China has started easing export restrictions on rare earth metals and critical minerals, indicating a possible thaw in trade relations.

  • Sterlite Technologies is falling sharply as its US subsidiary receives a $96.5 million (~ Rs 582 crore) penalty from the US District Court. This comes after Prysmian Cables and Systems USA filed a complaint against the arm and its employee, Stephen Szymanski, alleging violations of non-compete and confidentiality agreements by disclosing information to Sterlite.

  • Ather Energy surges to a new all-time high of Rs 512.8 following the launch of its new scooter platform, EL, designed to boost manufacturing efficiency. The EL architecture will reduce production man-hours by 15%. The company expects the electric two-wheeler (E2W) market to grow at a 41% CAGR, with E2Ws anticipated to account for 35% of overall two-wheeler sales by FY31.

  • TVS Motor surges to its all-time high of Rs 3,373.7 as its total wholesales grow 30% YoY to 3.9 lakh units in August, driven by a 30% YoY increase in two-wheelers and a 35% YoY growth in international business.

  • Jairam Sampath, Whole Time Director & CFO of Kaynes Technology, says outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) pilot production is underway, with chip shipments set to begin by Q4FY26. He projects semiconductor revenue to reach Rs 1,500 crore by FY28, driven by government initiatives. Currently, all electronics exports are exempt from US tariffs, and exports are expected to contribute 25% of revenue by FY27. He estimates PAT to reach Rs 1,800–2,000 crore by FY30.

  • Deven Choksey maintains its 'Buy' call on ACC, with a target price of Rs 2,128 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 17.3%. The brokerage expects strong growth going forward, led by an increase in capacity, helping its market positioning and cost optimisation, yielding higher operational benefits. It expects the firm's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 7.7% over FY26-27.

  • Aditya Birla Capital is rising as it plans to invest Rs 250 crore in Aditya Birla Housing Finance (ABHFL) to fund its growth and improve its leverage ratio.

  • Adani Power is rising as it secures a letter of award (LoA) from MP Power Management (MPPMCL) to supply electricity at a tariff of Rs 5.8 per unit. The company will set up a new 800 MW ultra-supercritical thermal power plant in Madhya Pradesh with a capex of Rs 10,500 crore.

  • Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC, highlights that India’s real GDP growth stands at 6.8% after accounting for an inflation deflator impact of around 1%. This suggests strong economic resilience despite global trade pressures, including recent US tariffs on Indian goods. She expects the RBI to cut rates to counter the drag from tariffs and adds that it will be worth watching how GST reforms influence revenue and fiscal planning.

  • Bajaj Auto is rising as its total wholesales grow 5% YoY to 4.2 lakh units in August, driven by a 29% increase in exports. However, the company's domestic wholesales fall 8% YoY to 2.3 lakh units during the month.

  • NCC surges as it receives orders worth Rs 788 crore in August from state government agencies. The orders come under the company’s water division.

  • Aurobindo Pharma receives Form 483 with three observations from the US FDA after an inspection at its subsidiary, Apitoria Pharma's active pharmaceutical drug (API) manufacturing facility in Telangana.

  • India's Manufacturing PMI rises to 59.3 in August, up from 59.1 in July, reaching its highest level since February 2008. The increase was fueled by strong demand, a surge in factory orders, and solid output growth.

  • Premier Energies is rising as its subsidiaries, Premier Energies Photovoltaic, Premier Energies Global Environment and Premier Energies International, bag orders worth Rs 2,703 crore. The orders are to supply solar photovoltaic (PV) modules and cells, with an aggregate capacity of 2,059 MW.

  • Gujarat Industries Power is rising sharply as it receives approval from the Energy and Petrochemicals Department, Government of Gujarat, to establish a 700–750 MW lignite-based power plant at Valia. Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam (GUVNL) also approves procuring power from the plant for 25 years.

  • AXISCADES Technologies is rising as its subsidiary, Mistral Solutions, secures an order worth Rs 150 crore from Combat Aircraft Systems Development & Integration Centre (CASDIC), Ministry of Defence. The order is The order is for developing 10 electronic control units for the cooling system in the Su-30 MKI fighter jet upgrade.

  • India's Q1FY26 GDP grows 7.8% YoY, a 5-quarter high, driven by government reforms and fiscal prudence. Industry leaders remain confident in the economy’s resilience amid US tariffs, citing strong domestic demand. FICCI President Harsha Vardhan Agarwal says income tax cuts, a lower repo rate, a good monsoon, and the upcoming GST rate rationalisation will support demand and offset export weakness.

  • Torrent Power is rising as it bags a letter of award (LoA) from MP Power Management (MPPMCL) for the long-term procurement of power from a 1,600 MW new coal-based power plant, at a tariff of Rs 5.8 /kWh. The company will set up 2x 800 MW of ultra-supercritical power plants in Madhya Pradesh with a capex of Rs 22,000 crore.

  • Escorts Kubota is rising as its total wholesales grow 27.1% YoY to 8,456 units in August. Exports surge 35.5% to 554 units, while domestic wholesales increase 26.6% to 7,902 units.

  • PG Electroplast is rising as its, step-down subsidiary, Next Generation Manufacturers, signs a memorandum of understanding with the Government of Maharashtra to invest Rs 1,000 crore in a greenfield project at Kamargaon, Ahilyanagar. The project sets up integrated manufacturing facilities for air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and related products.

  • Zydus Wellness rises as its subsidiary, Alidac UK, approves the acquisition of a 100% stake in Comfort Click for a cash consideration of GBP 239 million (~ Rs 2,851 crore).

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 24,523.50 (96.7, 0.4%), BSE Sensex was trading at 79,828.99 (19.3, 0.0%), while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 22,558.40 (95.5, 0.4%).

  • Market breadth is highly positive. Of the 2,128 stocks traded today, 1,544 showed gains, and 515 showed losses.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Tube Investments of India Ltd. (3,150, 6.4%), Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd. (17,582, 5.3%) and MphasiS Ltd. (2,921.50, 4.8%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Waaree Energies Ltd. (3,200.50, -5.9%), United Breweries Ltd. (1,795.80, -2.9%) and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (1,563.30, -2.0%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

16 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Zydus Wellness Ltd. (2,217.80, 9.9%), Kaynes Technology India Ltd. (6,600, 7.8%) and Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Ltd. (431.40, 6.8%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were United Breweries Ltd. (1,795.80, -2.9%) and Jyoti CNC Automation Ltd. (896.85, -1.6%).

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (687.05, 6.5%) was trading at 7.1 times of weekly average. Torrent Power Ltd. (1,262, 2.8%) and Rites Ltd. (258.48, 6.0%) were trading with volumes 6.4 and 5.6 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

8 stocks made 52 week highs, while 4 stocks were underachievers and hit their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Eicher Motors Ltd. (6,280, 2.9%), Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. (14,887, 0.7%) and TVS Motor Company Ltd. (3,356.20, 2.4%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - United Breweries Ltd. (1,795.80, -2.9%) and Deepak Nitrite Ltd. (1,788.90, 0.1%).

31 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Ola Electric Mobility Ltd. (62.48, 15.6%) and Tube Investments of India Ltd. (3,150, 6.4%). 5 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Esab India Ltd. (5,092, -0.9%) and Divi's Laboratories Ltd. (6,093, -0.6%).

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The Baseline
29 Aug 2025
Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 29, 2025
By Trendlyne Analysis

1. Maruti Suzuki India:

This car manufacturer hit an all-time high of Rs 14,895 on August 28 following reports that the government may announce a cut in GST on most cars and two-wheelers before Diwali 2025. The proposals under discussion include lowering GST on small cars and two-wheeler petrol vehicles to 18% from 28%, while large cars may see a cut to 40% from the current 43–50%.

Global brokerages Nomura and Jefferies are positive on Maruti Suzuki, noting that carmakers are likely to benefit more than two-wheeler makers from the proposed GST cuts. This is because two-wheeler companies will soon face higher costs from implementing anti-lock braking systems, which the government has mandated from January 2026. Maruti, with 68% of its sales coming from small cars, is well placed to benefit from the tax cuts. Jefferies expects the company’s earnings to rise by 2–8% over FY26–28.

Nomura highlights that since carmakers usually offer higher discounts, there is room to reduce them now. The brokerage estimates this could lead to a margin improvement of 100–150 bps for all OEMs, even if the full GST reduction is passed on to customers.

On August 26, Maruti launched its first all-electric SUV, the e-Vitara. The model is aimed mainly at global markets, with plans to cover over 100 countries, starting with Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden. Analysts however, expect domestic EV demand to slow, since GST cuts on conventional vehicles could make electric cars comparatively more expensive, potentially delaying the EV adoption by 2–3 years.

Rahul Bharti, Chief Investor Relations Officer (CIRO), said, “We expect SUVs, including electric models, to be a key driver of growth during the festive season and in the medium term." But he cautioned that Maruti faces supply challenges for EV magnets and is working on alternatives through localization and diversified sourcing.

2. Titan:

Thisgems & jewellery maker has risen by 7% over the past month. Bernstein recentlyinitiated coverage on the company with an ‘Outperform’ rating and set the target price at Rs 4,200. The brokerage believes the company is well-poised to benefit from India's growing shift towards organised players and modern consumer preferences. This is the highest target in the consensus – the average target from analysts on Titan, according toTrendlyne’s Forecaster, is Rs 3,941.

DuringQ1FY26, the company’s revenue grew by 24.6% YoY to Rs 16,523 crore, driven by improvements in the watches and jewellery segments. Net profit was up 52.6% at Rs 1,091 crore. Both revenue and net profit beat Trendlyne’sForecaster estimates by 13.5% and 15.7%, respectively.

Titan’s jewellery businessgrew 16.6% YoY in the quarter, led by a 15% rise in its gold portfolio. Growth was primarily thanks to higher ticket sizes (the average customer spend per purchase), which helped offset the impact of rising gold prices. 

The company also highlighted changing customer tastes, including rising demand for 18-carat jewellery across segments, and growing traction for 14-carat jewellery in some regions. To mitigate the impact of higher gold prices, Titan launched 9-carat diamond jewellery. With the festive season ahead, analysts expect jewellery demand to pick up further, leaving Titan well-positioned to capitalise. The company is targeting 15–20% growth in its jewellery division for FY26.

Most jewellery players have delivered strong results despite global headwinds like geopolitical tensions, tariff volatility, and surging gold prices. Addressing the tariff impact, MD C.K. Venkataramansaid, “The US contributes just over 2% of Titan’s sales, making recent tariff developments less significant in the short term. Our international jewellery business is expanding rapidly, with the GCC market expected to grow substantially. Combined with the US, overseas sales could soon contribute around 6% of total revenues”. Meanwhile, Titan’s watches segmentgrew by 24% YoY, primarily driven by improved analogue watch sales and strong growth in the Helios retail channel. 

Bernstein highlights Titan’s opportunities in international jewellery, especially after the Damas acquisition in the Middle East, as well as in its eye-care business, which offers longer-term incremental growth opportunities if executed well.

3. Divi's Laboratories:

Thispharma company rose 1.6% on August 25 following Jefferiesupgrade to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’, with a higher target price of Rs 7,150. The brokerage cited two major trends that could benefit the company: the rising demand for diabetes and weight loss drugs and the global shift of manufacturing away from China. On the impact of US tariffs, CEO Kiran Divi said, ”Right now, there is no clear methodology on what the tariff will be. But we have long-term supply agreements, which will protect the company.”

Divi’s has thelargest production capacity among Indian drugmakers at 16,500 kilolitres (KL). Nearly all of this capacity has been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), with the remaining capacity expected to receive approval within the next two years.

A key focus is on GLP-1 drugs, which help control blood sugar and support weight loss in patients with Type 2 diabetes. Divi’s is India’s key supplier of these drugs, holding contracts to supply both injectable and oral versions. Analystsexpect GLP-1 drugs to contribute $250 million (around Rs 2,200 crore) in revenue by FY28.

To manufacture such medicines, companies require peptides, short chains of amino acids that serve as the building blocks for these drugs. Divi’sis “backward integrated”, meaning it can produce these raw materials (peptides) in-house. Kiran Divisaid, “Most customers are coming to us because of our ability to make key starting materials and peptide fragments. This places us uniquely in the GLP-1 opportunity.”

Financially, inQ1FY26, the company reported a 26.7% YoY rise in net profit to Rs 545 crore with revenue growth of 13.7% to Rs 2,410 crore. The custom synthesis segment, which includes GLP-1 drugs and peptides, accounts for 53% of revenue and grew 23%. Growth in the segment was driven by strong demand from companies developing new drugs and thecommissioning of Kakinada Unit-III, which expanded the production capacity. 

Jefferies noted that Divi’s custom synthesis segment grew 19% YoY in FY25, led by the heart failure drug Sacubitril Valsartan. They cautioned that the segment may face near-term volatility due to the launch of Entresto generics in the US, after the July 2025 ruling allowed generic versions of a drug to enter the market. However, Jefferies expects the segment to deliver a 16% CAGR between FY26-28.

4. Action Construction Equipment (ACE):

Thiscrane maker surged 6% last week as investors bet on demand tailwinds from GST rationalisation, likely to be finalised at the September council meeting. A simpler GST structure could boost consumption and revive private capex. ACE, with over 60% market share for cranes in India, stands to benefit from this revival.

In addition, the rising public capex on roads, rail, metros, and logistics is reinforcing theprospects of medium-term order pipelines for ACE’s cranes, construction, and material-handling equipment. Executive Director Sorab Agarwal expects the construction equipment and road machinery business to grow 30–40% this year as order releases pick up, supported by Minister Nitin Gadkari’s push for a faster approval of road tenders. Tower crane volumes, which climbed 16% YoY in Q1, further highlight resilience in the real estate sector and the broader construction ecosystem.

The recent rebound in ACE’s stock followed an over 15% slide after itsQ1FY26 results on August 8, where revenue fell 8% YoY and more than 50% QoQ. The drop was largely due to pre-buying of cranes in late FY25 ahead of new emission and safety norms, which resulted in price hikes of over 10%. Early monsoons and weak investment sentiment amid tariff and geopolitical uncertainty further weighed on sales.

CMD Vijay Agarwalsaid, “We expect demand to normalise from the second quarter and improve more visibly from Q3, as pricing transition issues settle and the monsoon recedes.” Despite the revenue decline, ACE delivered a 16% YoY rise in net profit, driven by margin expansion from price hikes, cost efficiencies, softer input costs, and higher other income.

Based on its existing capacity, ACE can scale up to Rs 5,000 crore in revenue, offering over 30% growth headroom from current levels without major capex until FY27, when it is targeting sales of Rs 4,400 crore. In the near term, the company is prioritising modernisation and automation with over Rs 100 crore earmarked for FY26, alongside Rs 130 crore for land acquisitions. Beyond this, ACE has planned a larger expansion of Rs 250–300 crore over the next two years to drive its longer-term ambition of reaching Rs 6,600 crore in revenue by FY29.

5. PVR INOX:

The stock of this movies & entertainment company rose 14.4% over the past month. On August 22, it launched a 10-screen megaplex in Borivali, Mumbai, with a total seating capacity of 1,372, and spread across 43,500 sq ft. PVR INOX’s Managing Director, Ajay Bijli said, "Mumbai remains a key market, and this launch under our capex model shows our commitment to aspirational cinemas."

In Q1FY26, the company significantly reduced its net loss to Rs 54 crore, down from Rs 125 crore in the prior year. Revenue climbed 23% YoY, driven by an 8% increase in average ticket prices and a 23% rise in movie ticket sales. Operating revenue surpassed Forecaster estimates by 1.7%, with F&B and ad revenues growing 22.4% and 17.3%, respectively The stock features in a screener of companies with improving net cash flow over the past two years.

Q1 cinema admissions increased 12% YoY, reaching 3.4 crore. The company’s management expects to exceed its FY24 number of 15 crore footfalls in FY26, backed by a strong content pipeline including "Coolie" and "Avatar 3." Mr. Bijli added that FY26 began robustly for the Indian box office, with Bollywood collections up 38% due to successful films. He noted that their "Blockbuster Tuesdays" offer which started in April, has been highly effective, attracting nearly 1 million new and returning moviegoers and boosting weekday attendance.

Regarding capital expenditure, CFO Gaurav Sharma stated, "Our capex guidance remains unchanged despite plans for 90 to 100 new screens and increased renovation spending decided earlier this year. We expect a total spend of approximately Rs 400-425 crore. This includes about Rs 250-260 crore for new screens."

Geojit BNP Paribas attributes the stronger Q1 performance to a robust content slate and improved admissions. While it flags risks like Karnataka pricing and external disruptions, it sees support from a rebound in Hollywood content, select Bollywood hits, and consistent regional demand. The brokerage maintains an ‘Accumulate’ rating with a revised target price of Rs 1,252.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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The Baseline
28 Aug 2025
By Abdullah Shah

India’s economy grew 6.7% in Q1FY26, according to ICRA estimates – a slower pace of growth. Signs of a muted economy showed up in corporate performance, as India Inc. recorded its fifth straight quarter of single-digit earnings growth. This was largely due to weakness in the IT and manufacturing sectors. 51 companies transitioned from profit in Q4FY25 to losses this quarter.

Domestic support from government spending, liquidity, and RBI policy helped stabilise the economy, but global upheaval, including Trump's proposed 50% tariffs, volatile crude oil prices, and changing interest rates, have made CEOs cautious.

Emkay Global’s Seshadri Sen noted, “The broader market delivered weak earnings for Q1FY26, though trends did not worsen significantly. We see this as the bottom for the cycle, and expect a recovery from H2FY26, led by consumer discretionary spending.”

According to Trendlyne’s Results dashboard, more than 58% of Nifty500 companies have reported positive net profit growth for the quarter ending June 30. This Chart of the Week looks at industries with strong YoY growth in revenue and net profit. The major industries include investment companies, hotels, gems & jewellery, internet software & services, and finance

Strong portfolios give investment companies a boost

In Q1FY26, investment companies significantly outperformed other industries, boasting an 86.4% rise in revenue and a 47% increase in net profit YoY, thanks to strong portfolio gains. Sundaram Financial Holdings, Maharashtra Scooters and Summit Securities saw the highest growth.

Sundaram Financial Holdings' Q1FY26 revenue jumped 317.8% and net profit grew 42.4% YoY, due to rising investments. The company significantly increased its direct holding in Axles India to 63% from 38.8%, taking its effective holding to 89.4% in April, allowing for full financial consolidation. The sale of 5.6 lakh TVS Holdings shares for Rs 301.4 crore contributed to its revenue and profit.

Both Maharashtra Scooters and Summit Securities also reported strong Q1FY26 performances, driven by gains in their portfolios. Maharashtra Scooters’ revenue grew 279.2% and net profit soared 328.1% YoY, with an additional boost from an 82.6% cut in expenses. Summit Securities reported a 32.2% increase in revenue and a remarkable 585.5% surge in net profit, benefiting from a low Q1FY25 base that included a divestment-related loss.

Hotels see higher room rates and occupancy in Q1FY26

Strategic moves, including expansion into Tier 2 and 3 cities and a shift from property ownership to management contracts, propelled the hotels industry's Q1FY26 performance. It reported a 38.1% rise in revenue and an impressive 82.5% increase in net profit YoY.

The industry is witnessing strong demand for domestic travel, MICE events, weddings, and business travel. Indian Hotels, Chalet Hotels and ITC Hotels emerged as the top performers this quarter.

Leading the hotels industry, Chalet Hotels’ Q1FY26 revenue climbed 147.8% and net profit surged 234.9% YoY, exceeding Forecaster estimates by 101.2% and 196.4%. Strong hospitality segment performance, marked by higher average room rates (ARR) and revenue per available room (RevPAR), drove revenue growth. An additional boost of Rs 439.1 crore in residential project sales further strengthened the top line.

Sanjay Sethi, MD and CEO of Chalet Hotels, noted, "We expect double-digit RevPAR growth over the next 3-4 years, driven by a strong travel ecosystem within India, both on the leisure and business sides."

In Q1FY26, ITC Hotels’ revenue increased by 15.5% and net profit by 53.8% YoY, surpassing Forecaster estimates for both. Indian Hotels also reported growth, with revenue up 31.7% and net profit rising 19.3%, though its net profit fell short of estimates. Higher domestic travel led to increased average room rates (ARR) and revenue per available room (RevPAR), driving growth at Indian Hotels.

A strong wedding season and rising gold prices drive growth for the gems & jewellery industry

Strong domestic demand, driven by the wedding season and higher gold prices, propelled the gems & jewellery industry to a 24.3% revenue increase and a 43% net profit jump YoY in Q1FY26. Export growth, however, was tempered by anxieties surrounding the new US tariffs. Key players, including Titan, Kalyan Jewellers, and PC Jeweller, led growth.

Titan’s Q1FY26 revenue jumped by 24.6% and net profit by 52.6% YoY, beating Forecaster estimates. Healthy performance across its jewellery, watches, and eyewear segments fueled this growth. Jewellery led the gains, benefiting from demand during the wedding season and higher average transaction values resulting from rising gold prices. Robust sales volumes and a favourable shift to higher-margin products further boosted profitability.

CK Venkataraman, Managing Director of Titan, said, “In light of the tariffs, Titan is exploring a Middle East Gulf country as a manufacturing base to export to the US."

Kalyan Jewellers’ Q1FY26 revenue grew 31.3% and net profit increased 48.6% YoY, surpassing Forecaster estimates. Aggressive store expansion and strong sales at existing stores drove this growth. Meanwhile, PC Jeweller’s revenue and net profit rose 80.7% and 3.8% year-over-year, benefiting from a low base in Q1FY25.

Core business momentum powers growth in internet software & services 

In Q1FY26, the internet software & services industry’s revenue and net profit grew by 22.3% and 4,230.1% YoY, fueled by AI-driven operational efficiencies and strong performance in key segments like digital payments, insurance tech, and gaming. Nazara Technologies, One97 Communications (Paytm) and PB Fintech were at the forefront of these gains.

Nazara Technologies delivered mixed but strong results in Q1FY26 – revenue jumped 99.4% and net profit rose 136.2% year-over-year. While revenue missed Forecaster estimates, net profit exceeded them. Better performance in its gaming, e-sports, and ad-tech segments boosted its top-line. The gaming segment surged 159.6% YoY, due to strong contributions from Fusebox and Animal Jam.

However, Nazara Technologies’ stock fell 18.9% last week after the company suspended real-money gaming operations following the passage of the Online Gaming Bill, 2025, which bans money games, ads, and payments, posing major risks to the sector.

One97 Communications’ revenue climbed 27.7% and net profit soared 114.6% YoY in Q1FY26, propelled by growth in subscription merchants, gross merchandise value, and financial services. The company also improved its profitability by utilising AI to reduce expenses in marketing, employee, and technology areas. 

PB Fintech’s revenue increased by 33.4% and its net profit rose by 40.6% YoY, helped by higher insurance premiums and lending disbursements.

Interest rate cuts and strong retail credit demand fuel growth in the finance industry

The finance industry’s Q1FY26 revenue rose 21.5% and net profit 17.8% YoY, driven by strong retail credit demand, including gold loans and RBI rate cuts since February. Bajaj Finance, Cholamandalam Investment & Finance, and Muthoot Finance were contributors to growth.

Bajaj Finance delivered a strong Q1FY26 performance, with revenue growing 21.3% and net profit increasing 20.1% YoY, with revenue meeting and net profit exceeding Forecaster estimates, respectively. Larger assets under management (AUM), increased loan bookings, and rising customer additions, driven by high demand in the mortgage sector, contributed to this growth.

Cholamandalam Finance & Investment posted Q1FY26 revenue growth of 25% and net profit growth of 20.1% YoY, driven by strong AUM growth in vehicle and loan-against-property segments. Muthoot Finance’s revenue rose 44.2% and net profit 73.2% YoY, boosted by a surge in gold prices above Rs 1 lakh in April, which enabled larger loan disbursals and fueled AUM, revenue, and profit growth.

The healthcare services and other industrial products industries' revenue and net profit also increased by 19.6% & 28.8%, and 17.7% & 27.9% YoY. Standout performers from the healthcare services industry are Inenturus Knowledge Solutions, Dr. Lal Pathlabs, and Metropolis Healthcare. On the other hand, Solar Industries, PTC Industries, and Premier Explosives drove growth in the other industrial products industry.

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The Baseline
28 Aug 2025
Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - August 28, 2025
By Ruchir Sankhla

1. Pidilite Industries:

Geojit BNP Paribas reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this adhesives company with a target price of Rs 3,447, an upside of 11.2%. Analyst Anil R highlights that the tile adhesive market is growing at nearly twice the pace of India’s GDP. Pidilite is also expanding approximately 1.5 times faster than the market, with rural demand consistently outpacing urban growth in recent quarters.

Pidilite Industries’ Q1FY26 revenue rose 10.5% YoY to Rs 3,753 crore, supported by higher sales across its consumer and business-to-business (B2B) segments. The consumer and bazaar segment, which contributes the majority of revenue, grew 10% YoY, while B2B revenue increased 11%. Management noted that the domestic business benefited from favourable monsoon conditions, steady demand, and lower input costs, while international subsidiaries recorded 6.5% growth. 

The analyst expects Pidilite to continue delivering strong volume-led growth, supported by ongoing investments in its brands and supply chain. However, the company remains cautious about potential headwinds from geopolitical developments and uncertainty around global tariffs.

2. Dabur India:

Sharekhan retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this FMCG company with a target price of Rs 623, an upside of 19.3%. Analysts note that the company’s Q1FY26 performance was muted, as unseasonal rains during the peak summer months impacted its beverages and glucose sales. Revenue grew only 1.7% YoY to Rs 3,405 crore; but excluding its seasonal products, revenue rose 7%.

The home and personal care segment grew 5%, led by oral care, home care, and skincare. Healthcare revenue declined 4.4% but rose 2.7% when excluding glucose, thanks to growth in its power brands such as honey, chyawanprash, and Honitus (cough syrup) . Dabur reported market share gains across 95% of its portfolio.

The management stated that rural growth outpaced urban for the fifth straight quarter, with a 390 bps lead in Q1. For Q2, the company expects double-digit revenue growth, supported by premiumisation, new launches, and a focus on its power brands. As part of its Vision FY28 strategy, Dabur has exited several margin-dilutive categories, including tea, adult diapers, sanitiser, and breakfast cereals. These businesses collectively contributed only Rs 8 crore in sales in FY25.

3. NTPC:

ICICI Securities reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this power company with a target price of Rs 439, an upside of 31.8%. NTPC is transforming from a thermal power giant into a diversified power player. It has raised its target capacity to 149 gigawatt (GW) by FY32 (from 130 GW) with a planned capex of Rs 7 lakh crore. 

While the company plans 26-27 GW of coal-based capacity expansion, it is targeting 60 GW of renewable capacity, led by its listed green subsidiary, NTPC Green Energy. The company is also investing in green hydrogen, energy storage, and nuclear energy, with a long-term nuclear energy target of 30 GW by FY47.

Analysts Mohit Kumar and Mahesh Patil expect the company to benefit from India’s 6% annual power demand growth. They note that thermal capacity will remain critical in the medium term to meet peak demand, which supports NTPC’s expansion plans. They also highlight that execution has improved in FY26, with 3 GW already commissioned so far, compared to 4 GW commissioned during the entire FY25.

4. Godrej Consumer Products:

Emkay maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this FMCG major, with a target price of Rs 1,400, an upside of 11.3%. Analyst Nitin Gupta notes that GCPL is focused on volume-led growth in India and international markets while improving margins. At Emkay Confluence 2025, Vishal Kedia, Head of Global Strategy, shared that the company is investing early in a few categories ahead of the demand curve to capture growth opportunities.

In India, Gupta sees high-growth potential in household insecticides (HI), soaps, and personal wash. HI, contributing one-third of India’s revenue, could deliver high single-digit to low double-digit growth. Soaps, also a third of revenue, are under margin pressure due to palm oil inflation, with price hikes expected from Q3FY26. New initiatives like body wash, air fresheners, and deodorants are being tested and priced to boost adoption.

Internationally, the company faces margin pressure in Indonesia due to competition, with margins expected to recover to 22-24% in the medium term. Africa is expected to achieve low double-digit growth and margins of 17-18% over the next 4-5 years.

5. Sharda Cropchem:

Khambatta Securities upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this agrochemicals producer with a higher target price of Rs 1,162, an upside of 20.1%. In Q1FY26, the company's revenue increased 26.5% YoY to Rs 984.8 crore, beating Forecaster estimates by 11%. The non-agricultural and agrochemical segments grew, boosting revenue growth. The company’s EBITDA margin expanded 356 bps to 14.4%. 

Management's outlook for FY26 is to grow the topline by approximately 15% and maintain healthy EBITDA margins in the range of 15%-18%. They plan a capex of Rs 400-450 crore for the year to support new product registrations. The global agrochemical market is showing signs of recovery, with inventories returning to normal levels.

Analysts at Khambatta Securities expect revenue, EBITDA, and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 15.9%, 17.3%, and 38.4%, respectively, driven by the company’s plans to add new product registrations.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

IPO activity surges with ten new issues and ten listings this week
By Melissa Koshy

The market continued the uptrend from the previous week, with the Nifty 50 gaining around 1% last week. This rise was driven by optimism surrounding the Prime Minister’s announcement on lower GST rates. 

India’s Flash PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) hit a new high in August, reaching 65.2 from 61.1 in July. A PMI above 50 shows growth, and this jump reflects stronger demand in the economy. Both manufacturing companies and service providers reported more new orders. Export orders surged at the fastest rate since 2014, driven by higher inflows from Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and the US.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, says, "A record-high composite PMI and early signs of an urban demand revival are expected to support the market. The consumption sector will likely benefit from a favourable monsoon, low interest rates, and indirect tax reliefs." 

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled a rate cut in the September policy meeting at the Jackson Hole symposium. However, he highlighted that the decision will depend on the upcoming jobs and inflation data. Additionally, a key factor to watch is any fresh update from the US on the additional 25% tariffs on Indian goods, which are set to take effect on August 27. 

The IPO market keeps its momentum this week, with ten issues set to open, including two from the mainboard segment. In addition, ten companies will make their stock market debut, following five listings last week.

Five new companies debuted on the bourses in the past week

Regaal Resources led the mainline listings last week with a 38.2% gain over its issue price of Rs 102. This maize-based specialty products maker saw strong demand for its IPO and received bids for 159.9X the shares on offer. The HNI category was the most active at 356.7X, while retail investors subscribed 57.8X. The stock currently trades 21.6% above its issue price.

BlueStone Jewellery & Lifestyle, a jewellery maker, listed at a 1.4% discount but is now up 5.7% from its issue price. The company had received bids for 2.7X the shares on offer. The QIB category saw the highest interest at 4.3X, while the HNI portion was undersubscribed at 0.6X.

All three SME IPOs list at 20% lower circuit

In the SME segment, Mahendra Realtors, Icodex Publishing Solutions, and Studio LSD all listed at a 20% discount. The three companies are currently trading 23.4%, 30.9%, and 24% below their issue prices.

Ten new offerings to hit the market this week; SMEs lead the pack

The primary market is set for another busy week, with ten IPOs opening for subscription. Two mainline IPOs are scheduled to open on August 26, close on August 29, and will list on September 3.

Anlon Healthcare: A pharma company that manufactures intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) for medicines, nutraceuticals (foods that provide medical or health benefits), personal care, and veterinary products. It plans to raise Rs 121 crore via a fresh issue, priced at Rs 86–91. IPO proceeds will go towards capital expenditure to expand a manufacturing facility, debt repayment and working capital requirements. 

Vikran Engineering: A heavy electrical equipment maker, with a diversified project portfolio, majorly focused on energy and water infrastructure sectors. The company offers end-to-end services, including conceptualisation, design, supply, installation, testing, and commissioning, serving the power, water, and railway sectors. 

The company is looking to raise Rs 772 crore via a fresh issue, with Rs 721 crore coming from a fresh issue and the rest through an offer-for-sale (OFS). The price band is set at Rs 92 - 97 per share. The IPO funds will be used for working capital needs and general corporate purposes.

All mainline IPOs witness net profit growth in FY25

Along with these two mainboard IPOs, eight SME IPOs are also lined up this week.

  • Globtier Infotech and NIS Management opened its IPO on August 25, will close on August 28, and list on September 2. Globtier aims to raise around Rs 31.1 crore at Rs 72 per share, while NIS Management plans to raise Rs 60 crore with a price band of Rs 105-111.
  • Current InfraprojectsandSattva Engineering Construction will be open on August 26, close on August 29, and are set to list on September 3. Current Projects aims to raise Rs 41.8 crore with a price band of Rs 76–80, while Sattva Engineering plans to raise Rs 35.4 crore with a price band of Rs 70-75. 
  • Oval Projects Engineering will open for subscription on August 28, close on September 1, and list on September 4. The company plans to raise Rs 46.7 crore, with a price band of Rs 80-85 per share.
  • Sugs Lloyd, Snehaa Organics and Abril Paper Tech are scheduled to open their IPOs on August 29, close on September 2, and debut on the bourses on September 5. Sugs Lloyd plans to raise Rs 85.7 crore with a price band of Rs 117-123, and Snehaa Organics aims to raise Rs 32.7 crore priced at Rs 115-122 per share. Meanwhile, Abril Paper is set to raise Rs 13.4 crore at Rs 61 per share.

A busy week ahead with ten new listings

Patel Retail received bids for 95.4X the shares on offer. The QIB category saw the highest interest at 272.4X, while the retail portion was subscribed at 42.5X. The company will list on August 26. The department store chain mainly serves tier-III cities and nearby towns such as Thane, Raigad, Ambernath, etc. It sells food, FMCG products, general merchandise, and apparel.

QIBs drive demand for most mainline IPOs listing this week

Shreeji Shipping Global’s saw its IPO subscription reach 58.1X. The QIB category was the most active at 110.4X, while HNIs subscribed 72.2X. The company is a logistics player that handles dry-bulk cargo at non-major (smaller) ports and jetties in India and Sri Lanka. It is set to list on August 26.

Vikram Solar and Gem Aromatics were subscribed by 54.6X and 30.3X, and are also set to debut on the bourses on August 26. Vikram Solar is a solar module manufacturer, while Gem is a chemicals manufacturer that produces essential oils, aroma chemicals, and other specialty ingredients. 

Mangal Electrical IndustriesIPO was subscribed at 9.5X.The company manufactures transformers used in electricity distribution and transmission. It also makes key transformer parts such as laminations, coils, cores, and oil-immersed circuit breakers. It is set for listing on September 1.

Retailers emerge as the highest bidders in four of five SME IPOs

Five SMEs are also scheduled to hit the market this week:

LGT Business Connextions will list on August 26. Its IPO was subscribed by 1.2X. Meanwhile, ARC Insulation & Insulators is set for listing on August 29. The IPO was subscribed 3X by day 2.

Shivashrit Foods, Classic Electrodes and Anondita Medicare will close on August 26 and list on September 1. The IPOs of these companies were subscribed by 0.2X, 1.8X and 3.1X as of day 1.

Trendlyne Analysis released a IPO Note report for IPO on 25 Aug, 2025.
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The Baseline
22 Aug 2025
Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 22, 2025
By Trendlyne Analysis

1. Endurance Technologies:

This auto parts supplier rallied 9% in the past week after its board approved a capacity expansion at the Waluj plant in Maharashtra. The company will invest about Rs 136 crore to increase production of its braking systems. The expansion is expected to be completed by the fourth quarter of FY26.

Endurance said the expansion is being driven by rising demand for advanced safety products, especially its anti-lock braking systems (ABS). The government has proposed making ABS mandatory for all two-wheelers above 50cc from January 1, 2026. 

The company currently has an ABS capacity of about 6.4 lakh units and plans to increase this to nearly 30 lakh units by March 2026. MD Anurag Jain said that Endurance has given dual-channel ABS samples to Royal Enfield and Bajaj, and the company expects to begin supplies in September 2025. He added, “We currently have a 13–15% share in the ABS market, which we expect to increase to at least 25% after the expansion, while continuing to hold around 60% share in disc brakes.”

The company announced its Q1 results on August 13. Revenue rose 17.5% YoY, supported by 9% growth in domestic sales and a strong 39% rise in exports to Europe. Net profit was up 11% YoY but came in 3.3% below Forecaster estimates. Die casting accounted for almost half of the revenue, followed by suspension.

Endurance acquired a 60% stake in the Stoferle group in Germany during the quarter for €38 million (~Rs 386 crore). Stoferle, which makes high-precision parts for German automakers, has annual revenues of €84 million (Rs 854 crore) with margins of 18–20%. The management believes this deal will strengthen Endurance’s presence in Europe and bring benefits through common raw material sourcing and better use of capacity across projects.

Axis Securities has a ‘Buy’ rating on the company, pointing to its strong track record in handling large deals, which supports long-term growth. The company is looking to grow its share in the four-wheeler segment and expand business with customers in the premium bike market. These benefits are expected to show from H2FY26. Axis projects revenue and profit CAGR of 13% and 14% over FY26–28.

2. Va Tech Wabag:

Thiswater treatment company rose 5% in three trading sessions after announcing itsQ1FY26 results on August 12. The company’s revenue increased 17% YoY to Rs 734 crore, while its net profit grew 19.6% to Rs 65.8 crore. The growth was fueled by strong progress on large projects in Chennai and Saudi Arabia. 

A strong order book also supported growth. Rajiv Mittal, Chairman & Managing Director,said, “We closed the quarter with a well-diversified order book of approximately Rs 15,800 crore— over four times our annual revenue.” The order bookcomprises 64% in Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) and 36% in Operations and Maintenance (O&M).

The company recorded orderinflows of approximately Rs 2,600 crore during the quarter. This includes the reinstatement of its largest internationalorder, the Yanbu Desalination Project in Saudi Arabia, which had been previously cancelled, and theBengaluru water reuse project. On August 19, the company won a five-year, Rs 118 croreorder from the Ministry of Works, Kingdom of Bahrain, for O&M of a sewage treatment plant. This strengthens the company’s O&M presence in the Middle East.

The company targets a revenue CAGR of 15-20% over the next 3-5 years, with EBITDA margins of 13-15%. Its targeted revenue mix, with over 50% from international projects, 30% from industrial clients and 20% from the high-margin O&M business, is expected to support margin expansion and healthy cash flows.

While the company’s outlook remains positive, it faces some challenges, such as projectdelays like the six-to-seven-month slowdown in the Indosol Solar desalination. Mittal said, “The delay was due to a change of government and the need to reallocate the land originally assigned.” The company’s bidding approach also limits opportunities on projects without full payment security or strategic rationale.

Following the results, Axis Securitiesmaintained its ‘Buy’ rating, citing VA Tech Wabag’s strong order book, diversified project mix, and disciplined execution as key drivers for sustainable growth and margin expansion.

3. Sarda Energy & Minerals:

Thismetals and mining company surged 8% last week afterwinning the bid for the Senduri coal mine in Madhya Pradesh. The acquisition deepens its backward integration strategy by securing long-term coal supply for its thermal power plants, particularly the 600 MW unit at Binjkot, which sits close to the mine.

With the acquisition of this power plant in Binjkot last year, the company now getshalf of its total revenue from the power segment. The firm currently has nearly 762 MW of thermal capacity and 167 MW of hydro capacity. They sell this energy into merchant markets and also use it for their operations, hedging against volatility in either segment.

The remaining half of its revenue comes from ferro alloys and steel, which just a year ago made up over 90% of total sales. Iron ore pellets remain the foundation, but the company is steadily moving into value-added products like sponge iron, billets, rods and wires to capture higher realisations. To further growth in this segment, Chairman Prakash Sardasaid that the firm is “securing the raw materials (via acquisition of mines) needed for ferro alloys and steel, which will reduce dependency on external sources” and lift margins.

The stock had already rallied more than 20% earlier this month afterQ1FY26 results surprised Dalal Street. Revenue jumped 71% YoY, while net profit more than doubled, powered by higher energy prices and a 37% rise in hydropower generation from an early monsoon. With power’s contribution rising in the earnings mix, EBITDA margin expanded sharply to over 40%, compared with 33.5% a year earlier.

Looking forward, management reiterated its focus on maintaining a balanced model—treating power as an annuity-like cash flow engine while using ferro alloys and steel for cyclical upside. "With steady power sales, captive integration, and growing mining strength, we expect to sustain high earnings visibility across cycles," management said on the call.

Notably, investorMukul Agrawal held more than 1% of the company’s shares at the end of June 2025, according to Trendlyne’sshareholding data. The company also appears in a screener of stocks where bothFII andMFs have increased their shareholding in the last quarter.

4. Finolex Industries:

Thisplastic products manufacturer rose 6% on August 18 after the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) issued arecommendation to the Finance Ministry. DGTR proposed imposing anti-dumping duty on polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resin imports to stabilise prices, curb cheap imports and support domestic producers.

The proposed duties range from $22 to $284 per metric ton (MT), varying by country of origin. China is the largest PVC supplier to India, accounting for over 50% of total demand and faces a proposed duty of over $232 per MT. PVC resin is a raw material used in pipes, fittings, frames, and sheets in the agriculture and infrastructure sectors.

Currently, domestic PVC prices hover around $700 per MT. Saurabh Dhanorkar, MD,notes, “We expect domestic prices to rise once the anti-dumping duty is implemented, likely from October, and we believe this will support margins and improve capacity utilisation.” He also expects the company to achieve double-digit EBITDA margins in FY26, up from the current 9%, once PVC prices stabilise and demand picks up in H2FY25.

Finolex Industries derives 70% of its revenue from the agriculture segment and the rest from the infrastructure segment. In Q1FY26, both segments experienced weak demand, coupled with price volatility and lower realisations. This caused net profit and revenue to fall short ofForecasters’ estimates by 11% and 36%, respectively.

Dhanorkarsaid, “The early onset of monsoon reduced demand in Q1. But demand has ramped up in early August with high single-digit volume growth despite the monsoon continuing, and we expect this trend to continue in the second half of the fiscal year.” Thanks to this, the company expects to cross double-digit volume growth in FY26.

BOB Capital Markets maintains its 'Buy' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 265 per share, citing strong earnings and rising infrastructure segment revenue. The brokerage expects the anti-dumping duty on PVC to push domestic prices higher and believes this will improve the company’s operating margin. It projects EBITDA to grow at a 33% CAGR from FY26-27.

5. Godrej Properties (GPL):

The stock of this realty company rose 6% over the past week. On August 21, the company won a Telangana Housing Board e-auction for a 7.8 acre residential plot in Kukatpally, Hyderabad. The winning bid was Rs 547.8 crore, and the company estimates the project's revenue potential to be around Rs 3,800 crore. According to CEO Gaurav Pandey, the acquisition in Kukatpally is a "strategic location aligned with the city's growth."

While the company’s revenue declined by 4.7% YoY in Q1FY26, net profit increased by 15.4%. This rise was fueled by higher price realization from new project launches. Net profit also exceeded Forecaster estimates by 77.5%, supported by strong pre-sales, which accounted for 54% of total bookings for the quarter. The stock features in a screener of companies whose annual profit growth has surpassed that of the broader sector.

In Q1, the company added five new projects with a potential saleable area of 9.2 million square feet and an estimated gross domestic value (GDV) of Rs 11,400 crore. This achievement represents 57% of its annual business development goal within the first quarter alone. Pirojsha Godrej, the Executive Chairperson of GPL, stated, “We are on track to achieve our bookings target of Rs 32,500 crore in FY26 and are also on track to meet our guidance across all other operating parameters.” 

GPL has maintained its FY26 guidance, targeting Rs 40,000 crore in new launches and Rs 32,500 crore in pre-sales. Mr. Pandey also commented on current project pricing, adding, “With a few exceptions, we have successfully increased prices by 2% to 3% across most projects in the North. In Mumbai, prices have risen by 1% to 2%, while the increase has been less than 1% in Pune. In the South, we've seen a price increase of around 2% to 3%. Our post-launch sales for the last quarter exceeded Rs 2,750 crore.”

Motilal Oswal anticipates that sales booked over the past two years, which have a stronger margin profile, will be recognized in FY26-27, helping to alleviate investor concerns. The brokerage believes GPL is well-positioned to deliver strong performance in growth, cash flows, and margins, supported by a solid project pipeline and healthy returns. It has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 2,843.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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The Baseline
21 Aug 2025
You must have heard about the panic around

Japan in 1989, China in 2023, India in 2024:  the year that governments in these countries officially started to worry about falling birth rates. 

Fewer babies seems like a strange thing to be concerned about in India, a country of 1.4 billion people. We are reminded of the fact that we are the world's most populous country every time we step into a Mumbai local, a Bangalore metro; if we enter a mall during a Diwali sale, or misguidedly visit Shimla on a long weekend.  

But fewer numbers of babies worry governments due to the economic impact. A falling birth rate means a shrinking working population, slower GDP growth and lower tax payments to governments to fund old age pensions, subsidies, and social security. So when working populations fall, the country becomes poorer over time.

For a population to be at replacement level and neither grow nor shrink, a country needs a fertility rate (average number of children per woman) of 2.1. India's population fell below that fertility replacement level in 2020. And the fertlity rate is even lower in southern states like Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, where the average number of children per woman is between 1.2 and 1.6. The Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu M K Stalin has suggested that to fix this, Tamilians "should have 16 children each".

Humans used to be a fertile species - fertility rates typically used to be between 4.5 to 7.5. But we are now at a turning point. For the first time in recorded history, the world's largest economies are all below the population replacement rate.

Most of Europe fell below the replacement level in the 1970s, the US in the 1980s, and China in the 1990s.  South Korea’s fertility rate fell below 0.7 children per woman this year, the lowest in the world, meaning its population will halve by 2075. Africa is now the only large region in the world with fertility rates above the global replacement level. 

Most of the world's economic output now comes from low-fertility countries. Economists have started to panic, over this output falling as populations decline.

In the 1960s, the writer Paul Ehrlich visited India and, overwhelmed by the sheer number of people in the streets of New Delhi, warned about over-population disaster and global famine. Decades later, the Cato Institute called Ehrlich "a misanthrope who'd make you apply for a government permit to have a baby if he could".

Now we are worrying about the opposite: too few people.  But is a declining population really that bad for the world?


Fertility is not just falling - it is falling faster than before 

When I walk around my city (Bangalore), an interesting trend I see is the number of families with just one kid. Just a few years ago, two kids was common enough. Now among friends and family, I am seeing a lot of ones - and even a few zeroes.

This trend is happening worldwide. Fertility is falling faster than before. The decline from a fertility rate of six to three took almost a century to happen in Britain—from 1816 to 1910. It took less than half that time for India,  just 18 years in South Korea and 11 years in China.

In cities like Seoul and Beijing, nursery school staff are taking up jobs in old age homes instead. More than 10% of pre-school teachers in China have quit in the past five years due to falling student numbers. 

When people are asked about why they are having fewer children, they mention the high cost of living, lack of time, and a lack of community support because in many cases, parents live as nuclear families while their relatives live elsewhere.

But when governments have tried to intervene by providing paid time off for parents, free childcare and generous child subsidies (China is offering couples $500 a year to have a child), the fertility rate has not increased.

This suggests that there are other factors at work. Economists have for instance, found a direct relationship between the number of years of education women receive, and falling fertility levels. When women have options like jobs and access to birth control, they have fewer kids. 

Children also once used to be the only social security people had in their old age. But they take time and money to raise. They are also unpredictable: as adults, they may move far away from you, marry someone you don't like, or even change their minds about you. In the age of  investments with predictable returns, reliable careers and pensions, having kids has become increasingly optional.

Are we having another Ehrlich moment?

Is it possible, that like Paul Ehrlich, we are panicking prematurely? In 1900, the world's population was around 1.6 billion. We are sitting at four times that number, as populations across the globe exploded in the past 100 years.  

When population soared, technology - in the form of fertilizers and pesticides that raised crop yields  - saved humans from the famine Ehrlich predicted would "end the world in 2000". Now, technology is again changing fast.

Better healthcare is already helping people to have longer careers - CEOs like Warren Buffett are working at 94, which would have been unthinkable even two decades ago. As people live longer and healthier, retirement ages can be pushed, putting less stress on pensions and social security. Rather than worry about ageing populations, countries should worry about populations ageing well.

Another factor is the underemployment of women in countries like India. Increasing labor participation of women from the current 40% levels would provide a long-term productivity boost, rather than falling for bad ideas like pushing them back home to have sixteen children. 

AI is a third new, important factor to consider - if artificial intelligence and robots substantially raise productivity per person, then countries will be able to drive economic growth with much fewer people. And if AI is eventually able to innovate at human or close to human levels, then we will start seeing technological breakthroughs at an even faster pace than ever before. 

Falling fertility has coincided with huge gains for us in gender equality, education and reproductive freedom.  Rather than trying to rewind the clock, we should think about how we can build a world with fewer people. The planet will thank us.

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The Baseline
21 Aug 2025
Caught in the crossfire: Will India’s economy hold up against Trump’s tariff shock?
By Divyansh Pokharna

Global trade tensions have flared up again, and India is right in the middle of the storm. President Trump has imposed 25% tariffs and an additional 25% penalty on Indian goods, citing the country’s continued purchase of Russian oil. Interestingly, the penalty does not apply to other nations such as China, the largest importer of Russian crude. 

For Indian exporters, this move threatens their business relationships with US customers and has made their near-term growth outlook uncertain.

Markets took comfort when reports after the Trump–Putin meeting suggested that Washington may relax the extra penalties on India’s Russian oil imports. But exporters are cautious, aware that US policy under Trump can shift quickly, and the outlook can change overnight.

The Reserve Bank of India reflected this uncertainty in its April 9 forecast. It trimmed the FY26 growth projection when the US first threatened a 26% tariff, but it left the estimate unchanged after the steeper 50% tariff announcement on August 6, not foreseeing a significant additional impact. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said, “We don't see a major impact of US tariffs on the Indian economy unless there is a retaliatory tariff,” said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra. But he added that “the global environment continues to be challenging.”

International institutions have echoed this view, with the IMF raising its growth forecast slightly and S&P Global judging the tariff impact as manageable. The US buys only a sixth of Indian goods, and the Indian government has been reaching out to its BRICS partners to boost trade ties after the new tariffs. The BRICS countries already trade more goods with one another than with the US. 

Other global agencies, however, take a more cautious view. Goldman Sachs believes that higher tariffs will weigh more heavily on exports and company earnings than official forecasts suggest. It estimates that GDP growth could decline by as much as half a percentage point, more severe than the RBI anticipates.

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at how analysts see US tariffs impacting India’s growth. Some global agencies see them as a serious threat, while others point out that strong domestic demand limits the overall effect.

From manageable slowdown to sectoral shock: mixed views on tariff impact on sectors

Moody’s Ratings and Barclays remain cautious, though not overly worried about the tariff shock. Moody’s estimates that the 50% US tariff could trim India’s GDP by around 30 bps, mainly because of a lower contribution from exports. It believes the overall hit will be limited, citing strong domestic demand and a resilient services sector. 

Barclays offers a similar estimate of a 30 bps slowdown, pointing out that India’s growth is driven more by domestic consumption than by exports. Both agree that some export-heavy sectors, such as textiles and jewellery, will feel the pressure, but the broader economy should hold up.

Nomura takes a different angle. While it expects the overall hit to growth to be smaller—around 20 bps compared with Moody’s and Barclays’ 30 bps—it warns that the sectoral fallout could be more severe. Calling the 50% tariff “almost like a trade ban,” it highlights that smaller industries such as textiles and jewellery, already operating on thin margins, could be disproportionately affected. At the same time, Nomura sees a possible cushion: India may be able to redirect some exports to Europe, the UK, and New Zealand.

Goldman Sachs sees the most severe risk. It estimates that tariffs could shave as much as 60 bps off India’s growth if they remain in place. More than the immediate slowdown, Goldman Sachs cautions that the bigger threat lies in uncertainty. Prolonged tariffs, it argues, may discourage companies from making new investments or planning expansions.

Industry leaders echo these concerns. Siva Ganapathi, MD of Gokaldas Exports, says that the 50% tariff feels “more like a ban than a tax” and warns it could disrupt supply chains, pushing buyers to shift away from India. Shrenik Ghodawat, MD of the Sanjay Ghodawat Group, adds that sectors like textiles, gems, and seafood must quickly find alternative markets to cushion the blow. He estimates that if tariffs persist, India’s GDP could slow by 0.4 to 1 percentage point.

Domestic demand expected to keep growth outlook intact

The RBI has kept its outlook largely steady. The signal is clear: the central bank expects strong spending to continue supporting the economy despite external pressures.

S&P Global has taken an even more upbeat stance. The ratings agency recently upgraded India’s sovereign credit rating from BBB- to BBB, calling the impact of the 50% US tariff “manageable” or even “marginal.” It reasons that exports to the US make up only about 2% of India’s GDP, and with key sectors such as pharma and electronics exempt, the actual exposure is closer to 1.2% of GDP.

S&P also highlights that India’s economy is powered mainly by its consumers, with nearly 60% of growth driven by domestic spending. On top of that, the “China-plus-one” shift is drawing global companies to India—not just for exports, but to tap into its fast-growing home market. Together, these factors give India an added cushion and make growth more resilient.

The IMF is similarly optimistic. It raised India’s growth forecast to 6.4% for both FY26 and FY27, up from 6.2% and 6.3% earlier. While acknowledging that a 50% US tariff could trim growth by 20–30 basis points, it expects strong household demand and continued government investment to offset much of the drag. The fund stresses that because India’s economy depends more on domestic consumption and public investment than on external trade, it is less vulnerable to shocks like tariffs.

The RBI, S&P, and IMF all share a common view: India’s growth story rests on domestic demand rather than exports. Tariffs may pinch a few export-oriented sectors, but they are unlikely to derail the broader economy. The real test lies in how long the tariffs last. A short disruption may sting exporters without affecting overall growth, while a prolonged 50% tariff could add pressure. Even at the lower 25% rate, the impact would still be noticeable, though far more contained.

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The Baseline
19 Aug 2025
Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - August 19, 2025
By Divyansh Pokharna

1. Manappuram Finance:

ICICI Securities upgrades its rating on this NBFC to ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 305, a 13.2% upside. Manappuram is working to expand its share of gold loans to 75% of its total loans, up from the current 65%. The goal is to improve the share of secured loans to 90% and reduce the share of unsecured microfinance. The management believes this shift will improve asset quality by reducing exposure to riskier segments.

To achieve this, the company will offer gold loans through its subsidiaries. It plans to introduce them at its Asirvad subsidiary, which has around 1,100 branches. If successful, the model will be extended to other subsidiaries. Under this plan, the company expects gold loan branches to grow to over 5,000 by year-end, up from 4,044 now.

Analysts Ansuman Deb, Shubham Prajapati, and Sanil Desai are also optimistic about the appointment of new CEO Deepak Reddy. They expect him to strengthen core businesses such as gold loans, vehicle loans, and housing finance, along with improving governance and customer focus.

In Q1FY26, the company's AUM rose 3% QoQ but fell 1.4% YoY, mainly because of weak performance at Asirvad Microfinance. The segment has been under pressure as many borrowers took on excessive debt, leading to higher defaults. This pushed up credit costs and weighed on profitability. The management expects conditions to improve and hopes the segment to recover by Q4FY26.

2. Global Health (Medanta):

Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this hospitals chain with a target price of Rs 1,550, an upside of 12.9%. In Q1, the company’s net profit rose 45% YoY, beating Forecaster estimates by 17.2%, helped by a one-time gain from an interest reversal. However, EBITDA margins fell to 22%, down 190 bps YoY, due to annual salary hikes and costs related to the new Noida hospital.

The company’s average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB) grew 4% YoY in Q1. Management expects mature hospitals to see 3–7% annual growth, mainly from treating more complex cases rather than price hikes. For newer hospitals, ARPOB may fluctuate quarterly but should gradually rise over time, supported by shorter patient stays. Management added that occupancy for advanced care hospitals will likely peak at 70–75% in FY26.

Medanta plans to invest Rs 3,500 crore to add 3,000 new beds over the next five years, along with Rs 450 crore for maintenance in the next three years. Analyst Aman Goyal notes that the company’s strong balance sheet will support this expansion, along with technology upgrades and acquisitions in key regions.

3. Can Fin Homes:

Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades its rating to ‘Buy’ on this housing finance company with a target price of Rs 900, an upside of 17.2%. In Q1FY26, the company’s loan disbursements grew 9% YoY to Rs 2,000 crore. The management expects disbursements of Rs 10,500 crore in FY26, with Rs 2,500 crore planned for Q2. Net profit rose 12.1%, even as the company increased provisions to clear out overdue accounts early in the year.

Can Fin Homes has passed on the recent repo rate cuts to its customers, lowering rates by 25 bps. However, the benefit will reach borrowers gradually, since most loans reset only once a year. By Q1, 67% of the loan book was on annual resets, down from 72% in March. The remaining loans reset every quarter.

Analyst Arun Kailasan notes that with banks passing on rate cuts to customers with a delay, net interest margins should remain stable. He expects net interest income to grow 11.2% and net profit to rise 40.4% over FY26–27.

4. Lemon Tree Hotels:

IDBI Capital maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this hotel company with a target price of Rs 177, a 19% upside. The company’s Q1FY26 revenue rose 17.8% YoY to Rs 315.8 crore. Growth was driven by a 10% rise in average room rate to Rs 6,236 and higher management fees from third-party contracts and its subsidiary, Fleur Hotels.

Analysts Archana Gude and Jaydeep Taparia note broad-based growth, with Aurika Mumbai’s occupancy jumping to 76.6% from 45.8% last year, driven by higher corporate and direct bookings. During the quarter, the company signed 14 new management and franchise contracts, adding 1,273 rooms, and operationalised five hotels with ~400 rooms.

Management expects accelerated growth across owned, leased, managed and franchised assets, supported by strong travel demand, new contracts, and expansion. Net debt declined 11% YoY to Rs 1,658 crore, and the company targets becoming debt-free within the next 18 months.

5. MRF:

Anand Rathi maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this auto tyres manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,70,000, a 16% upside. MRF’s Q1FY26 revenue grew 6.7% YoY, beating Forecaster estimates by 3.1%. Growth was driven by stronger domestic demand and an improvement in product pricing. However, EBITDA margin declined to 12.4% from 14.1% last year due to higher input costs.

Management noted that the April-June quarter usually brings higher sales, as new vehicle production boosts orders from original equipment manufacturers and replacement demand also picks up. But this year, demand was subdued due to tariff issues in April, the impact of geopolitical tensions in May, and early monsoons.

Despite these challenges, analyst Mumuksh Mandlesha remains optimistic about the company. The brokerage expects revenue, EBITDA, and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 9%, 13%, and 19%, over FY26-28. This is supported by stronger replacement and export demand, market share gains, and margin recovery from lower rubber and crude derivative prices.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

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The Baseline
19 Aug 2025
Which stocks did superstar investors buy in Q1FY26?
By Divyansh Pokharna

The first quarter of FY26 was marked by market volatility, largely driven by global trade tensions. During these months, the US and India were busy negotiating the first phase of a Bilateral Trade Agreement, to improve trade between the two countries, and bring down tariffs on both sides.

But President Trump blew up the negotiations, complaining about India’s imports on Russian oil, and imposed a 50% import tariff on Indian goods. The move prompted a warning from Moody's about a potential slowdown in India's manufacturing sector and overall economic growth. However, S&P Global Ratings expects the tariffs to have limited impact on the economy, noting that exports to the US are small and key sectors like pharma and consumer electronics are largely exempt. The agency also upgraded India’s sovereign rating from ‘BBB-’ to ‘BBB’.

To invest in markets as volatile as this, people follow superstar investors like RARE Enterprises, Ashish Kacholia, Sunil Singhania, and Vijay Kedia for insights. Their buying and selling activity helps retail investors identify promising sectors and stocks. We take a look at their top buys in Q1FY26.

In Q1, most superstar investors remained cautious due to market volatility. They made fewer additions and more stake sales, continuing the pattern seen from the March quarter. The chart below shows changes in their current public portfolio net worth. 

Despite limited buying, several of their existing holdings delivered strong gains during the quarter, leading to a rise in net worth for most of these investors. Note that superstar net worth includes current holding changes, as well as new buys and sells. 

Each superstar investor's portfolio reflects their unique investing style and sector preferences. The chart below highlights the dominant sectors in each investor’s public portfolio. 

Sector preferences vary among superstar investors – RARE Enterprises leans towards the Textiles Apparels & Accessories, while Ashish Kacholia favours general industrials. Sunil Singhania focuses on the metals & mining sector, and Vijay Kedia’s preferred industry is automobiles & auto components. Dolly Khanna leans more towards the fertilizers industry, and Porinju Veliyath’s top sector is software & services.

Ashish Kacholia added just one new stock to his portfolio in Q1, which topped the list of best-performing stocks for the quarter. Dolly Khanna made the most new investments during this period, with Coffee Day Enterprises emerging as her top-performing stock. Here’s a look at the key stocks held by these superstar investors.

Kacholia’s Gujarat Apollo Industries topped the list with a 34.5% rise over the past quarter. Among Dolly Khanna’s holdings, Coffee Day Enterprisesrose 30.8%, followed by Southern Petrochemicals Industries and Sarla Performance Fibers. Porinju’s RPSG Ventures also appears in the list, gaining 4.9% in Q1.

RARE Enterprises records no new buys in Q1

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio, currently managed by Rekha Jhunjhunwala and RARE Enterprises, has risen by 10% to Rs 61737.8 crore as of August 18. The fund has stayed relatively quiet in recent months, making no new purchases or stake increases during the quarter. However, RARE has fully sold its stake in Nazara Technologies.

Net worth has increased despite no stake additions, driven by strong performance in key holdings such as Star Health and Allied Insurance, Concord Biotech, Fortis Healthcare, etc. However, its two largest holdings, Inventurus Knowledge Solutions and Titan Company, recorded nearly flat performance in the past quarter.

Ashish Kacholia adds a new company in Q4, raises stake in three

Ashish Kacholia’s net worth rose 7.3% to Rs 2,659 crore as of August 18. During the quarter, the ace investor addedGujarat Apollo Industries, a small-capindustrial machinery maker, to his portfolio, investing about Rs 5 crore for a 1.1% stake.

FIIs alsoincreased their holding in the company, from a mere 0.01% to 0.14% during the quarter. The stock appears in ascreener of stocks that outperformed their industry during the quarter. It has risen by 73.8% over the past year.

Kacholia also bought a 0.3% stake inAgarwal Industrial Corp during Q1, increasing his holding to 4.3%. The stock ranks high on Trendlyne’s checklist with a score of 56.5%. However, it has declined by 32.3% over the past year.

He also made small additions of 0.1% each to his holdings in Tanfac Industries and Aeroflex Industries. Both companies have strong Durability scores and rank high on Trendlyne’s checklist. They also turn up in a screener of stocks that have delivered consistently high returns over the past five years.

Sunil Singhania slightly increases his stake in Mastek

Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund saw its net worth drop 2.2% to Rs 2,452.3 crore as of August 18. Singhania’s fund remained cautious during the quarter, making more stake sales and adding only a small 0.1% stake in Mastek.

The fund now holds a 2.8% stake in the IT consulting firm. However, this is down from 3% stake in the June quarter last year.

Trendlyne classifies Mastek as a Mid-range Performer, driven by its high Durability score but average Valuation and Momentum scores. The stock is undervalued based on both current PE and future earnings estimates.

Analysts estimate the stock could rise around 22% over the next year, with an average target price of Rs 3,072. It has already gained 7.3% in the past quarter.

Vijay Kedia makes no new buys in Q1

Vijay Kedia's net worth has fallen by 13.4%, reaching Rs 1,193.8 crore as of August 18. He has been relatively quiet in recent months, making no new purchases or stake increases during the quarter, but has sold stakes in a few companies.

Dolly Khanna adds three new companies in Q1

Dolly Khanna's net worth increased by 37%, reaching Rs 533.3 crore as of August 18. She publicly holds 17 companies and continued to expand her portfolio in Q1 by adding three new companies and increasing stakes in another seven. 

Her new investments include a 1.7% stake in Southern Petrochemicals Industries Corp, a fertilizer manufacturer, and a 1.6% stake in Coffee Day Enterprises, which runs coffee outlets. She also bought a 1% stake in Sarla Performance Fibers, a textiles firm.

Over the past quarter, Southern Petrochemicals’ share price has risen by 16.9%, Coffee Day has gained 30.8%, while Sarla Performance has increased by 0.3%. 

Khanna increased her stake in Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizers by acquiring 1.1%, taking her holding to 3.3%. This is the fourth consecutive quarter where she has raised her stake in the company. It has surged 158.9% over the past year, outperforming its industry by 59 percentage points.

Khanna also bought minor stakes in Som Distilleries & Breweries (0.4%), 20 Microns (0.3%), and 0.2% each in Prakash Industries and Rajshree Sugars & Chemicals. Additionally, she made small purchases in KCP Sugar, Zuari Industries, and GHCL

Porinju Veliyath adds an IT consulting firm to his portfolio in Q1

Porinju Veliyath's net worth increased by 13.5%, reaching Rs 232.2 crore. During the June quarter, he added RPSG Ventures to his portfolio, acquiring a 1.4% stake in the IT consulting & software company. The company’s share price has increased by 12.2% over the past year, outperforming its industry by 23.6 percentage points. 

During Q1FY26, Porinju increased his stake in Orient Bell by 0.9%, taking his holding to 4.6% in the ceramics manufacturer. The stock has strong Durability and Valuation scores of 85 and 61.3. The company has gained 3.9% over the past quarter. 

He also picked up a 0.4% stake in Apollo Sindoori Hotels and now holds 2.1% in the hotels stock. The company has gained 8.7% over the past quarter, outperforming the industry by 8.4 percentage points. It also has a high Durability score of 65. 

Porinju bought a 0.2% stake each in Sundaram Brake Lining and M M Rubber Company. He has a 1.3% stake in both the auto parts maker as well as the auto tyres manufacturer. These companies feature in a screener of stocks with zero promoter pledge.