Finolex Industries Ltd. share price forecast

Inventory losses impacted a seasonally strong quarter

Q1 revenue increased 23% YoY as volumes/realisations rose 29%/4% in PVC pipes & fittings and 25%/0.2% in PVC resin

Record revenue while miss on profitability front

Q4 revenue increased 28% YoY as volumes/realisations rose 4%/9% in PVC pipes & fittings and 32%/8% in PVC resin

Weak results on volatile PVC prices

Q3 revenue declined 6% YoY as volumes fell 15% in PVC pipes & fittings and 36% in PVC resin

Record PVC/EDC delta at $790/ton (Vs $654 / ton in Q2FY21 Vs $830 / ton in Q1) last quarter pretty much explains the momentous rise in PVC resin EBIT to Rs 230.59 crs compared to just Rs 99.10 crs in the same quarter a year ago, as external sales of resin rose by a n astonishing 41.6% to 13684 tons. With spreads at record highs, PVC resin spreads...

Q2 revenue growth robust at 85% YoY as PVC realisations surged 63% and pipe volumes grew 27% YoY

Expect volume to improve with seasonality; Realisation to remain at elevated level

Sharp increase in realization aided net sales growth FIL's blended sales volume increased by 8% YoY to 106,068MT. Pipes volume grew by 5.5% YoY to 55,819MT, while PVC volume was up by 10.6% to 50,249MT. NSR further strengthened in both PVC and pipes segment by 92.7%/58.1% respectively over Q1FY21. Though raw material prices saw some softness in the beginning of Q1FY22, prices are again on uptrend and may touch a level of USD 1,300-1,400 by December, 2021. Pipes segment will remain subdued due to seasonal weakness in demand;...

Q1FY22 revenue growth robust at 72% YoY as PVC realisations surged 93% YoY

Robust performance aided by strong realisation improvement; in line with estimates

Finolex Industries Ltd. (FIL) reported the best ever quarterly performance on all key parameters. Net sales increased by 23.9% YoY to Rs12.4bn, while EBITDA came in at Rs4.1bn, a robust growth of 57.8% over Q4FY20. The company reported net profit of Rs2.9bn compared to Rs587mn in Q4FY20. The management attributed Q4FY21 performance to higher sales volume and improved realisations. Amid pandemic, demand has shifted from unorganised to organised players. Though second wave of Covid-19 led lockdown has weighed on demand for agri-pipes in Q1FY22E, the management cited that demand may come back in Q2FY22E, if things normalise. Nonagri segment demand is healthy as real estate has picked up well key cities. We have...

FNXP reported strong Q4FY21 revenue growth of 63% YoY as PVC prices surged 68% YoY, driving up realisations

Plastic Pipe Sector Review Q3FY21

Finolex Industries Ltd. (FIL) reported an all-round quarterly performance led by higher sales volume, improved realisation and sharp inventory gain. Net sales increased by 52.5% YoY to Rs10.6bn, while EBITDA came in at Rs3.4bn, a robust growth of 150.5% over Q3FY20. The company reported net profit of Rs2.5bn, up by 163.4% YoY. The management attributed a stellar quarterly performance to healthy demand and higher than anticipated improvement in net sales realisation (NSR). Also, sharp increase in PVC prices led to inventory gain in Q3FY21. The company remained confident to keep the growth momentum by increasing capacity in pipes and strengthening distribution...

Finolex Industries' (FIL) Q3FY21 revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew 52.6%/152%/186% YoY (significantly higher than our as well as street estimates)

Finolex Industries' (FNXP) Q3FY21 revenue grew 53% YoY, aided by a 15% rise in PVC resin volumes while pipe volumes increased 5%.

V-shaped recovery in global PVC resin prices since May with corresponding surge in PVC/EDC delta (above long term average of $550600/mt) explains much of the rise in Finolex's PVC resin EBIT in Q2 - Rs 99.10 crs Vs Rs 45.13 crs in the same quarter a year ago.; though external sales (volumes) fo PVC resins rose by just 38.1% to 9665 tons. As indication of its barely subdued impact, Finolex's PVC resin realizations were at $920 / mt compared to $740/ton in Q1 while PVC/EDC delta stood at $653/mt compared to $547/mt in Q1. Supply constraints of PVC resins have...