Finolex Industries Ltd. share price target

For Q1FY27, Finolex Industries (FNXP)’ operational profitability surpassed our estimates – lifted by better realisations. EBITDA/kg in the pipe segment rose 55% YoY to INR 15.7 on a low base, resulting in EBITDA growth of 13.9% YoY.

Revenue grew 12% YoY despite flat volumes; EBITDA margin expanded sharply to 25.3% on strong PVC spreads and inventory gains

Finolex Industries' (FIL) Q4FY26 result beat our estimates on margins front. The management guided that the agricultural volume was subdued in Q4 because farmers anticipated softening prices amid market volatility, alongside delayed monsoons, though agricultural pipe demand began showing initial recovery indicators during the month of May. The company is gradually diversifying its product mix to reduce agri-dependence, with the agricultural segment share declining from 67% in FY25 to 63% in FY26, while the non-agricultural segment continues expanding. Further, the management noted that the fittings segment...

volatility in RM prices . The company reported an inventory gain of INR 350-400mn in purchases amid PVC price volatility and expectations of further price corrections, segment for FY27, while targeting EBITDA margins at sub-15% levels amid continued Q4FY26. The company increased its inventory position to 91 days (up 22 days YoY,...

Finolex Industries delivered a mixed performance in Q4FY26. Its revenue missed our estimate by 8.9% on lower pipe volume of -0.5% y/y vs. ARe of 10%, due to weak demand for agri pipe.

Finolex Industries' (FIL) Q3FY26 result was below our estimates on key parameters. The management cited that the monsoon season materially impacted demand across the piping industry, leading to muted volumes in Q3. Channel inventory levels remained below normal but started rebuilding gradually in January as PVC prices stabilized and sentiment improved. Industry demand outlook remains cautious but seasonally stronger in Q4, with infrastructure and non-agri applications supporting recovery. However, management refrained from expecting double-digit industry growth given...

FNXP trails peers on muted demand for agri pipes: rev declined ~10% YoY led by vol decline of ~14% YoY while realisations grew 5% YoY

Finolex Industries' (FIL) Q2FY26 result was a mixed bag as net sales was marginally below our estimate, while margins were beat to our forecast. Volume decreased by about 6% YoY mainly on account of prolonged heavy monsoon. The management anticipates a rebound in deferred demand once the monsoon recedes and does not foresee a significant overall decline in agri demand. The company faced global structural issues in the VCM market, which it is attempting to manage through long-term contracts to ensure continued supply. The management reiterated that the core focus remains on being a...

Reported weak pipe sales volume in Q2 due to muted demand environment, but beats EBITDA estimate on sharp margin improvement

at 50% discount to consensus target market value. We recently met the management of Finolex Industries (FNXP) to gauge volume growth outlook, market share dynamics, PVC resin availability, and price trends post DGTR's final findings on ADD on PVC resin. The company reiterated its 10% volume growth guidance in Pipes & Fittings (P&F) for FY26 and expects margin improvement ahead. We believe FNXP stands to benefit from 1) imposition of ADD on PVC resin given its backward integration, 2) GST rate revision on agri pipes, 3) expanding dealer/distribution network, and 4) gradual expansion in...

Finolex Industries' (FIL) Q1FY26 result was below our estimates on key parameters. The company experienced modest growth in pipes and fittings volumes, despite a weak overall demand scenario, however, operating performance was muted mainly due to weaker realization on account of volatility in PVC prices. The management guided that the demand has shown high single-digit growth as of early August 2025. The company expects this high single-digit trend to continue and is hopeful of crossing double-digit growth for FY26. Net sales declined by 8.5% YoY to Rs10.4bn, while EBITDA came in at...

Sharp EBITDA miss in Q1 on weak demand and sharp margin pressure due to volatile PVC resin prices

Beats EBITDA estimate by 47.0% on sharp sequential improvement in the pipe segment margin

P&F reported soft volume growth of 2.1% YoY due to challenging demand scenario and delays in ADD on PVC resin prices. The company has guided double digit volume growth for FY26, with margin recovery expected as competitive pricing will improve with demand and normalization in channel inventory. EBIT/kg for the P&F segment moderated at Rs10.5 with lower PVCEDC spread at USD 491/MT and 3.2% YoY lower realization. The correction in realization was mainly due to discounts and correction in RM prices. We...

Gained market share in pipe segment in a difficult environment by offering heavy discounts to its dealers

Gained market share in pipe segment in a difficult environment, but still missed our EBITDA estimates by 90% due to sharp margin contraction