The 29 reports from 10 analysts offering long term price targets for Dabur India Ltd. have an average target of 477.00. The consensus estimate represents an upside of 3.31% from the last price of 461.70.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2019-11-06||Dabur India Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||476.55||550.00||476.55 (-3.12%)||19.12||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
Healthcare segment witnessed robust growth of 11.1% growth on account of increased focus of the management in health supplements and digestives verticals (double digit growth in Chyawanprash, Glucose and Digestives). Growth in home & personal care was subdued at 4% impacted by a severe slowdown in hair oils, which grew a mere 2.6% YoY. Oral care growth was also muted at 4.4% though Dabur Red sustained healthy growth of 9.5%. Foods segment declined 5% due to category slowdown and downtrading to lower priced alternatives. Dabur's rural sales grew ahead of urban sales (6%...
|2019-11-06||Dabur India Ltd.||Nirmal Bang||476.55||470.00||476.55 (-3.12%)||Target met||Accumulate|
what we have envisaged. Dabur's 2QFY20 consolidated revenues grew by 4.1% YoY to Rs. 22.1bn (vs our est. 6.3% growth to Rs. 22.6bn) as domestic FMCG sales grew 4.9% led by volume growth of 4.8% CMP: Rs481 YoY (vs est. 4%). Overall EBITDA grew YoY by 8.6% to Rs. 4.9bn (vs our est. 3.7% growth to Rs. 4.7bn). Adj. PAT grew by 15.1% to Rs. 4.3bn (vs our est. 4% to Rs. 3.9bn). The exceptional item (of Target Price: Rs470 around Rs. 400mn) for the current quarter represents provision for impairment in the value of treasury investment due to rating downgrade leading to default in repayment. Gross margin expanded 140bps Downside: 2% YoY to 50.8% which drove EBITDA margin expansion of 90bps YoY to 22.1% (vs est. 20.7%). The domestic business in 2QFY20 continued to face headwinds in the form of a sustained slowdown in Vishal Punmiya...
|2019-11-05||Dabur India Ltd.||HDFC Securities||481.35||511.00||481.35 (-4.08%)||10.68||Buy|
Dabur has delivered in a tough environment as its initiatives are beginning to pay dividends. Mohit is focusing on (a) Scaling power brands (8 brands with 65% revenue mix) which have a large addressable opportunity and (b) Deeper rural penetration led by higher direct reach (targeting 55k villages in FY20). While beverage market share is at all time-high, recovery in growth is critical for Dabur to outperform. Our conviction in recovery in volume growth is led by pick-up in transfers of PM-kisan scheme, normal monsoons and favorable base. Dabur reported an in-line show amidst weak consumer demand in rural. Ex-foods, domestic volume growth of 7.4% is commendable. Mohits (new CEO) strategies and execution is visible in 1HFY20 performance wherein Dabur has outperformed the market (vs. riding with the tide). We raise estimates by 2-3% and value Dabur at 40x on Sep-21E EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 511. Maintain BUY.
|2019-11-05||Dabur India Ltd.||Prabhudas Lilladhar||481.35||484.00||481.35 (-4.08%)||Target met||Hold|
Dabur is taking initiatives on new product launches and distribution believe that quality of growth has not been good as large categories like Oral care and hair care are under pressure. In addition, Juices as a category is facing structural growth issues. Visibility in IBD remains hazy given growth...
|2019-11-05||Dabur India Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||481.35||455.00||481.35 (-4.08%)||Target met||Neutral|
2QFY20 consolidated sales grew 4.1% YoY to INR22.1b (v/s est. INR22.4b). EBITDA grew 8.6% YoY to INR4.9b (v/s est. INR4.8b). PBT grew 6% YoY to INR5b (v/s est. INR5b). Adj. PAT increased 15.5% YoY to INR4.4b (v/s est. INR3.9b)....
|2019-10-18||Dabur India Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||466.50||550.00||466.50 (-1.03%)||19.12||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
High concentration to rural to drive future growth Dabur derives 40-45% of revenue from rural sales vs 35% for the industry, which has led the company to grow at 20% sales CAGR over FY09-14 period. However, rural slowdown due to GST and demonetisation over last 4 years has resulted in a tepid topline growth of ~4% in the last 5 years. Though high base in FY19 and recent rural slackness may impact company's performance in FY20, we remain positive on long term growth prospects for Dabur. We believe that government would increase its measures to improve...
|2019-09-11||Dabur India Ltd.||HDFC Securities||449.10||497.00||449.10 (2.81%)||7.65||Buy|
Co level initiatives are on track. We will be keen to see how Mohit will drive Dabur's large but under indexed portfolio. Revitalizing the strategy should fill the gaps in product/distribution/ communication. There are few low hanging fruits which Mohit will try to assess initially, resulting in a quick turnaround in performance. Rural tilt in sales mix means progress of monsoon (normal) and government initiatives are key (wage growth is muted). Our change in rating is based on medium term performance. We attended the analyst meet of Dabur India. We observed that Daburs strategy has turned aggressive (outperform market) vs. defensive (riding with the tide). Dabur headed by Mohit Malhotra (new CEO, joined Aug'18) is shaping up well. Mohit is taking the right steps which were required years ago. Dabur has always been admired due to its wide product range and strong rural play (45% rev mix). However, the co was performing below its potential. Extensive product range was limiting managements focus (defensive approach due to focus on many brands). Rural play (acceleration) has been more of a hope than a reality due to competition from regional players and entry of large players in upcountry markets. With the change in approach, we are confident that Dabur can outperform over the next 3-5 years. Current slowdown might impact near term performance but we expect a mean reversion for many brands over the next few years. We see a re-rating potential in Dabur. We are upgrading the target multiple to 40x (38x earlier) on Sep-21 EPS. Our TP...
|2019-09-11||Dabur India Ltd.||Prabhudas Lilladhar||449.10||437.00||449.10 (2.81%)||Target met||Hold|
Dabur has maintained a very cautious stand due to near term macro- Change in Estimates | Target | Reco economic headwinds led by 1) slowing down of MoM FMCG growth rate (13.2% in 2Q19 to 3.7% in July'19) 2) increased unemployment 3) liquidity...
|2019-09-09||Dabur India Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||444.25||425.00||444.25 (3.93%)||Target met||Neutral|
9 September 2019 The new CEO believes that DABUR had deviated its focus from its core business over the past 15 years or so. Management believes that, unlike peers, not only does the company have strong domain knowledge, extensive sourcing of herbs and the widest collection of ancient manuscripts on traditional medicines, but also all-encompassing knowledge and a portfolio suitable for the core concepts of Ayurveda Ahaar, Vihaar and Aushadi (meaning Food, Habit and Medicine respectively). These will be the key focus areas which management believes were lacking vigor over the last five years, either in terms of pipeline or enthusiasm. In the four-year vision cycle (currently in the second year), it will not enter any new category, and thus, all innovations and renovations will be in existing categories of HPC, Healthcare and Food.
|2019-09-09||Dabur India Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||444.25||440.00||444.25 (3.93%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
We met the top management team of Dabur India (Dabur) at the analyst meet organized by them. Some key highlights are as below: Near term commentary soft: Dabur is seeing slowdown in the market, which could affect near term growth. Industry growth is sequentially seeing pressure now; value growth of 10% (led by 6.2% volume growth) in 1QFY20 now comes down to 7.1% (3.7% volume growth) in July'19. Faster growth in the Natural/Ayurvedic/Herbal segment, focus on power brands, low unit packs (LUP's) helped Dabur to grow ahead of the market in the recent quarter. Despite good performance in 1QFY20, the company has maintained its target of mid to high single digit volume...
|2019-08-13||Dabur India Ltd.||Prabhudas Lilladhar||429.25||437.00||429.25 (7.56%)||Target met||Hold|
IBD margins expected to improve in 2HFY20 We met the management of Dabur to understand current demand scenario, vision and the long term business strategy. Dabur is looking at a sustainable 7-8% volume growth led by 1) strengthening and scaling up of the 8 power...
|2019-07-22||Dabur India Ltd.||HDFC Securities||421.40||470.00||421.40 (9.56%)||Target met||Buy|
New CEO Mohit Malhotra intends to (1) Scale power brands (large addressable opportunity), (2) Increase direct reach in rural (55k villages in FY20 vs 48k now) and (3) Cost optimisation. Most of this is on track, but the rural tilt in sales mix does depend on the progress of the monsoon and government initiatives to revive the rural economy. In FY20, we expect (1) Recovery in gross margins (+70bps vs. -103bps in FY19) led by price hikes and benign input cost inflation, (2) Tight cost controls (A&P) and (3) Favorable operating leverage which will drive EBITDA margin by 181bps (-56bps in FY19). Dabur delivered a strong 1QFY20, despite weak macros and a high base. Cos distribution initiatives and concentrated brand focus have led to ~10% vol. growth, ~2x estimates. This is unprecedented, given Daburs track-record in difficult macros. We model near term softness, maintaining estimates despite the 1Q beat. Our TP of Rs 470 is based on 38x Jun-21E EPS. Maintain BUY.
|2019-07-22||Dabur India Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||421.40||500.00||421.40 (9.56%)||8.30||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
Domestic business grew 10.5% driven by 9.6% growth in volume, supported by higher trade promotions. All key categories witnessed growth: health supplements (+19.6%), digestives (+18.2%), OTC (+13.1%), ethicals (+15.9%), hair oil (+12.1%), shampoo (+10.9%), oral care (+11.4%) and skin care (+12.1%). However, mere 1.5% growth in foods, on account of increased competitive intensity, was a disappointment. Volume growth was encouraging, considering a high base of 21%. However, the management has indicated a further slowdown in rural demand with growth in June...
|2019-07-22||Dabur India Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||421.40||435.00||421.40 (9.56%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Dabur India's domestic performance surprised positively in 1QFY20, delivering a revenue growth of 9.3% YoY which was driven by a 9.6% YoY growth in volume in domestic business. Revenue growth was slightly ahead of our estimate and was likely a result of a combination of measures taken by management like driving network expansion in rural areas, increasing direct reach footprint, streamlining of advertisement and brand promotion spends to focus on their power brands and pick-up in innovation momentum in several categories. These initiatives are very encouraging and indicative of a step in the right direction by management. Moderation in crude oil prices and benign inflation kept the cost pressures in check and the company took an overall price increase of 1.5% in the current quarter. Performance in the International...
|2019-07-19||Dabur India Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||420.20||425.00||420.20 (9.88%)||Target met||Neutral|
|2019-07-19||Dabur India Ltd.||Arihant Capital||423.75||446.00||423.75 (8.96%)||Target met||Hold|
Defying current slowdown in consumer demand, Dabur India came out with good set of numbers, beating our estimate on all fronts. Consolidated revenue for the quarter Q1FY20 grew 9.3% YoY to Rs 2273 cr, above our estimate of Rs 2170 cr. Consolidated EBITDA jumped 18.5% YoY to Rs 458 cr beating our estimate of Rs 401 cr, while EBITDA margin expanded +157bps YoY to 20.1% against our estimate of 18.5%. PAT for the quarter witnessed a decent growth of 10.3% YoY to Rs 363 cr above our estimate of Rs 340 cr. Despite subdued consumer sentiment, domestic business of...
|2019-05-03||Dabur India Ltd.||HDFC Securities||382.00||464.00||382.00 (20.86%)||Target met||Buy|
Dabur is enjoying a renewed consumer fad in naturals' across its portfolio with limited competitive intensity. Dabur's success in FY20-21E will depend on how the co. capitalizes on this opportunity based on (a) Success of new launches, (b) Scaling power brands, (c) Marketing strategy (d) Deeper distribution (rural markets) and (e) Recovery in rural demand. Post the recent correction in the stock, we believe the ask rate is not demanding. New CEO on board would lead to a rejig in the co's strategy and may result in short term pain for long term gain. We advise investors to look at the stock from a medium-long term perspective. Dabur reported a weak show in 4QFY19, as the performance was marred by seasonality impact and slowdown in rural offtake (unlike previous elections). We cut our EPS by 4% for FY20-21E owing to a delay in rural acceleration and weakness in international biz. We believe the govt. will focus on reviving rural consumption, making Dabur the best play (particularly after the recent stock correction). Our TP is at Rs 464 based on 38x FY21E EPS.
|2019-05-03||Dabur India Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||382.00||430.00||382.00 (20.86%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Dabur India's domestic performance witnessed a sharp decline in 4QFY19 which was much weaker than expected considering that rural markets have been somewhat sluggish, up just 5% YoY, which was less than half of what was registered in the previous quarter. This led to a major negative surprise of 3% on the top-line. Growth in international business and margins was also well below expectations, resulting in a decline in operating performance by 6% which was also significantly below expectation. Hair Care and Food segments witnessed a significant decline in growth rate whereas Oral Care, Home Care and Skin Care registered healthy growth rate. Rise in employee costs and other expenditure was the key...
|2019-05-03||Dabur India Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||382.00||450.00||382.00 (20.86%)||Target met||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
Rural slowdown dents earnings; international remains subdued The rural market constitutes 45% of the company's sales vs. ~35% for the industry. Domestic FMCG sales growth moderated to 6% due to rural slowdown, liquidity crunch and prolonged winter, which impacted hair care and foods segments. The international business growth also remained muted (1% constant currency growth) due to continued weakness in MENA region and adverse currency in Turkey, Nigeria and Pakistan. We believe steady focus on expanding direct reach in rural areas would augment the...
|2019-05-03||Dabur India Ltd.||Arihant Capital||377.00||446.00||377.00 (22.47%)||Target met||Buy|
Dabur India came out with stable set of numbers, which were mostly in line with our estimate. Consolidated revenue for the quarter Q4FY19 grew 4.7% YoY to Rs 2128 cr, slightly below our estimate of Rs 2229 cr, while EBITDA came at Rs 457 cr exactly in line with our estimate of Rs 456 cr. EBITDA margins came in at 21.5% which was impacted by higher staff costs (+34% YoY). PAT for the quarter stood at Rs 370 cr against our estimate of Rs 404 cr(-6.5% YoY) mainly on account of Rs 75 cr of exceptional loss on account of impairment of goodwill in one of its wholly owned subsidiary M/s Hobi...