The 25 reports from 8 analysts offering long term price targets for Dabur India Ltd. have an average target of 471.25. The consensus estimate represents an upside of 5.10% from the last price of 448.40.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2020-05-28||Dabur India Ltd.||HDFC Securities||448.40||404.00||448.40||9.90||Sell|
Dabur can capitalise on the rising consumer trend towards naturals/ayurvedic, health supplement and hygiene products in the medium term. However, aggregate demand will be weaker for discretionary business in India and international business will also be volatile with several macro headwinds in FY21. We cut EPS estimate by ~10% for FY21/FY22 (7/9% cut in our FMCG thematic in April). We value DABUR at 40x on Mar-22E EPS, deriving a TP of Rs 404. Maintain REDUCE. Dabur India reported 12% yoy decline in net revenues with a contraction of 15% yoy in India volume. Domestic volumes were up by 4.6% yoy in Jan/Feb (largely inline) but high dependence on the last 10 days of March (~20% of the qtr, more than expected) impacted overall performance. Channel filling for seasonal products like Juices, Glucose, Pudin Hara etc was impacted most due to lockdown. International business clocked healthy 8% yoy growth in Jan/Feb, and -0.6% yoy in 4QFY20. Negative oplev and limited time for cost control resulted in 23% yoy decline in EBITDA.
|2020-05-28||Dabur India Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||448.40||520.00||448.40||15.97||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
With increasing health consciousness, some products with immunity booster proposition like Chyawanprash, Honey & OTC products are gaining traction. Further, the company also launched five new products in the healthcare space along with immunity booster kit. DIL posted 400% surge in Chyawanprash demand & 80% growth in honey in the last few months inducing it to expand capacity of these products to meet the current demand. We believe health supplement would be driving the growth and could see structural demand improvement given increasing consumer...
|2020-05-27||Dabur India Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||448.40||429.00||448.40||-4.33||Neutral|
We also expect an impact on FY21 earnings owing to its high dependence on wholesales and on the profitable MENA business getting affected by the sharp crude price decline. sales/ EBITDA/ Adj. PAT grew 2%/ 3%/ margin contracted 260bp YoY to 18.9% (v/s est. The goal is to appeal to the millennial, increase accessibility and drive penetration through sampling and Management has identified power brands (1) together contribute ~65% of sales, but would contribute large part of Ad-spend focus on power brands would mean that even if overall ad spend rises by only ~6-7%, the increase in ad spends on power brands is likely to be in In its home and personal care portfolio where penetration is very high, the aim is to take market share from peers and plug gaps in terms of portfolio and Weak results and muted near-term outlook has led to 7.4%/9.0% decline in EPS forecasts for FY21/FY22E.
|2020-02-04||Dabur India Ltd.||Geojit BNP Paribas||513.65||527.00||513.65 (-12.70%)||17.53||Hold|
Geojit BNP Paribas
Dabur India Ltd (Dabur), a leading Indian FMCG company, is a world leader in Ayurveda with a portfolio of over 250 Herbal/Ayurvedic products. The company operates through Health Supplements, Digestives, Shampoos, Hair...
|2020-01-31||Dabur India Ltd.||HDFC Securities||495.75||510.00||495.75 (-9.55%)||Target met||Buy|
Dabur has outperformed in a tough environment as its brand building initiatives are beginning to pay dividends. Mohit Malhotra is focusing on (a) Scaling power brands (8 brands with 65% revenue mix) which have a large addressable opportunity, (b) Deeper rural penetration led by higher direct reach (targeting 55k/60k villages in FY20/21) and (c) Innovation of new products. We remain optimistic for Dabur and expect co will be opportunistic in the rural recovery. Dabur posted healthy 5.6% domestic volume growth (est 5%) despite weak consumer sentiments in rural India. Focused strategy on power brands, innovative launches and increase in rural reach is driving share gains. Rural growth outpaced urban by 400bps for Dabur (in contrast to industry). Oral care growth at 8.5% was much better than category growth and market leader (Colgate posted 4%). Health Supplements and Digestive also posted healthy 12% and 16% growth. Food remained muted due to category issue, will be keen to watch performance in upcoming season. Despite near term headwinds, we believe Dabur will outperform peers owing to (1) Focus on power brands, (2) Expanding addressable market, (3) Healthy growth in natural category, (4) Rising distribution reach and (5) Innovative launches. We value Dabur at 40x on Dec-21E EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 510. Maintain BUY.
|2020-01-31||Dabur India Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||495.75||490.00||495.75 (-9.55%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Dabur's 3QFY20 consolidated revenue grew by 7% YoY to Rs. 23.5bn (vs our est. 4.9% growth to Rs. 23.1bn), led by domestic FMCG volume growth of 5.6% YoY (vs our est. 4%). Rural growth at 5.3% YoY was ahead of urban by 400bps in 3QFY20. Hair care, Health Supplements, Oral Care, Digestives, Home Care and OTC & Ethicals grew by 1%, 12.2%, 8.5%, 15.9%, 2.5% and 3.9%, respectively. The Foods business declined by 1.7% during the quarter. Dabur continued to gain market share in core categories Chyawanprash saw 314bps improvement, toothpaste market share rose by 30bps, market share in hair oils increased by 50bps and Real fruit juices saw a sharp 530bps improvement YoY. International business grew by 12% YoY in constant currency...
|2020-01-31||Dabur India Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||497.00||550.00||497.00 (-9.78%)||22.66||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
Healthcare shines, HPC muted, foods segment disappoints The healthcare segment witnessed robust growth of 10.7% during the quarter. Most of the power brands that the management has laid focus on for the medium term are from the healthcare segment, among which Chyawanprash, Hajmola, Pudin Hara and Honitus registered strong growth during the quarter. Growth in home & personal care was subdued at 3.5%, impacted by a severe slowdown in hair oils, which remained flat (up 0.4% YoY). On the positive side, oral care grew 8.5% YoY on the back of a strong...
|2020-01-30||Dabur India Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||495.75||480.00||495.75 (-9.55%)||Target met||Neutral|
Rural sales for Dabur grew 400bp, ahead of urban in 3QFY20, and aided by Results for the quarter were better than estimates led by domestic volume growth, international business and higher gross margins. Valuations are fair at 46.3x FY21 EPS, particularly for a business with moderate earnings growth prospects (~14% CAGR over FY20-22 despite base of 6.4% CAGR in the past 4 years) and RoCEs in mid-20s, also at with TP of INR480 (targeting 40x Further deceleration was witnessed in the FMCG sector in 3QFY20. Demand 6.6% FMCG category value growth itself a multi-year low on Nielsen data, which was 5.3% in Dec19 therefore, slowdown was witnessed toward the quarter-end. Overall domestic sales growth was 5% YoY with 5.6% volume Gross Margins should expand, led by low RM costs in 4QFY20, but company will invest in ad-spends; therefore EBITDA margins are unlikely to expand in the domestic business.
|2019-11-19||Dabur India Ltd.||Geojit BNP Paribas||453.70||499.00||453.70 (-1.17%)||Target met||Hold|
Geojit BNP Paribas
Margins expand in Q2 but valuation expensive Dabur India Ltd (Dabur), a leading Indian FMCG company, is a world leader in Ayurveda with a portfolio of over 250 Herbal/Ayurvedic products. The company operates through Health Supplements, Digestives, Shampoos, Hair...
|2019-11-06||Dabur India Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||476.55||550.00||476.55 (-5.91%)||22.66||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
Healthcare segment witnessed robust growth of 11.1% growth on account of increased focus of the management in health supplements and digestives verticals (double digit growth in Chyawanprash, Glucose and Digestives). Growth in home & personal care was subdued at 4% impacted by a severe slowdown in hair oils, which grew a mere 2.6% YoY. Oral care growth was also muted at 4.4% though Dabur Red sustained healthy growth of 9.5%. Foods segment declined 5% due to category slowdown and downtrading to lower priced alternatives. Dabur's rural sales grew ahead of urban sales (6%...
|2019-11-06||Dabur India Ltd.||Nirmal Bang||476.55||470.00||476.55 (-5.91%)||Target met||Accumulate|
what we have envisaged. Dabur's 2QFY20 consolidated revenues grew by 4.1% YoY to Rs. 22.1bn (vs our est. 6.3% growth to Rs. 22.6bn) as domestic FMCG sales grew 4.9% led by volume growth of 4.8% CMP: Rs481 YoY (vs est. 4%). Overall EBITDA grew YoY by 8.6% to Rs. 4.9bn (vs our est. 3.7% growth to Rs. 4.7bn). Adj. PAT grew by 15.1% to Rs. 4.3bn (vs our est. 4% to Rs. 3.9bn). The exceptional item (of Target Price: Rs470 around Rs. 400mn) for the current quarter represents provision for impairment in the value of treasury investment due to rating downgrade leading to default in repayment. Gross margin expanded 140bps Downside: 2% YoY to 50.8% which drove EBITDA margin expansion of 90bps YoY to 22.1% (vs est. 20.7%). The domestic business in 2QFY20 continued to face headwinds in the form of a sustained slowdown in Vishal Punmiya...
|2019-11-05||Dabur India Ltd.||HDFC Securities||481.35||511.00||481.35 (-6.85%)||Target met||Buy|
Dabur has delivered in a tough environment as its initiatives are beginning to pay dividends. Mohit is focusing on (a) Scaling power brands (8 brands with 65% revenue mix) which have a large addressable opportunity and (b) Deeper rural penetration led by higher direct reach (targeting 55k villages in FY20). While beverage market share is at all time-high, recovery in growth is critical for Dabur to outperform. Our conviction in recovery in volume growth is led by pick-up in transfers of PM-kisan scheme, normal monsoons and favorable base. Dabur reported an in-line show amidst weak consumer demand in rural. Ex-foods, domestic volume growth of 7.4% is commendable. Mohits (new CEO) strategies and execution is visible in 1HFY20 performance wherein Dabur has outperformed the market (vs. riding with the tide). We raise estimates by 2-3% and value Dabur at 40x on Sep-21E EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 511. Maintain BUY.
|2019-11-05||Dabur India Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||481.35||455.00||481.35 (-6.85%)||Target met||Neutral|
2QFY20 consolidated sales grew 4.1% YoY to INR22.1b (v/s est. INR22.4b). EBITDA grew 8.6% YoY to INR4.9b (v/s est. INR4.8b). PBT grew 6% YoY to INR5b (v/s est. INR5b). Adj. PAT increased 15.5% YoY to INR4.4b (v/s est. INR3.9b)....
|2019-11-05||Dabur India Ltd.||Prabhudas Lilladhar||481.35||484.00||481.35 (-6.85%)||Target met||Hold|
Dabur is taking initiatives on new product launches and distribution believe that quality of growth has not been good as large categories like Oral care and hair care are under pressure. In addition, Juices as a category is facing structural growth issues. Visibility in IBD remains hazy given growth...
|2019-10-18||Dabur India Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||466.50||550.00||466.50 (-3.88%)||22.66||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
High concentration to rural to drive future growth Dabur derives 40-45% of revenue from rural sales vs 35% for the industry, which has led the company to grow at 20% sales CAGR over FY09-14 period. However, rural slowdown due to GST and demonetisation over last 4 years has resulted in a tepid topline growth of ~4% in the last 5 years. Though high base in FY19 and recent rural slackness may impact company's performance in FY20, we remain positive on long term growth prospects for Dabur. We believe that government would increase its measures to improve...
|2019-09-11||Dabur India Ltd.||HDFC Securities||449.10||497.00||449.10 (-0.16%)||Target met||Buy|
Co level initiatives are on track. We will be keen to see how Mohit will drive Dabur's large but under indexed portfolio. Revitalizing the strategy should fill the gaps in product/distribution/ communication. There are few low hanging fruits which Mohit will try to assess initially, resulting in a quick turnaround in performance. Rural tilt in sales mix means progress of monsoon (normal) and government initiatives are key (wage growth is muted). Our change in rating is based on medium term performance. We attended the analyst meet of Dabur India. We observed that Daburs strategy has turned aggressive (outperform market) vs. defensive (riding with the tide). Dabur headed by Mohit Malhotra (new CEO, joined Aug'18) is shaping up well. Mohit is taking the right steps which were required years ago. Dabur has always been admired due to its wide product range and strong rural play (45% rev mix). However, the co was performing below its potential. Extensive product range was limiting managements focus (defensive approach due to focus on many brands). Rural play (acceleration) has been more of a hope than a reality due to competition from regional players and entry of large players in upcountry markets. With the change in approach, we are confident that Dabur can outperform over the next 3-5 years. Current slowdown might impact near term performance but we expect a mean reversion for many brands over the next few years. We see a re-rating potential in Dabur. We are upgrading the target multiple to 40x (38x earlier) on Sep-21 EPS. Our TP...
|2019-09-11||Dabur India Ltd.||Prabhudas Lilladhar||449.10||437.00||449.10 (-0.16%)||Target met||Hold|
Dabur has maintained a very cautious stand due to near term macro- Change in Estimates | Target | Reco economic headwinds led by 1) slowing down of MoM FMCG growth rate (13.2% in 2Q19 to 3.7% in July'19) 2) increased unemployment 3) liquidity...
|2019-09-09||Dabur India Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||444.25||425.00||444.25 (0.93%)||Target met||Neutral|
9 September 2019 The new CEO believes that DABUR had deviated its focus from its core business over the past 15 years or so. Management believes that, unlike peers, not only does the company have strong domain knowledge, extensive sourcing of herbs and the widest collection of ancient manuscripts on traditional medicines, but also all-encompassing knowledge and a portfolio suitable for the core concepts of Ayurveda Ahaar, Vihaar and Aushadi (meaning Food, Habit and Medicine respectively). These will be the key focus areas which management believes were lacking vigor over the last five years, either in terms of pipeline or enthusiasm. In the four-year vision cycle (currently in the second year), it will not enter any new category, and thus, all innovations and renovations will be in existing categories of HPC, Healthcare and Food.
|2019-09-09||Dabur India Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||444.25||440.00||444.25 (0.93%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
We met the top management team of Dabur India (Dabur) at the analyst meet organized by them. Some key highlights are as below: Near term commentary soft: Dabur is seeing slowdown in the market, which could affect near term growth. Industry growth is sequentially seeing pressure now; value growth of 10% (led by 6.2% volume growth) in 1QFY20 now comes down to 7.1% (3.7% volume growth) in July'19. Faster growth in the Natural/Ayurvedic/Herbal segment, focus on power brands, low unit packs (LUP's) helped Dabur to grow ahead of the market in the recent quarter. Despite good performance in 1QFY20, the company has maintained its target of mid to high single digit volume...
|2019-08-13||Dabur India Ltd.||Prabhudas Lilladhar||429.25||437.00||429.25 (4.46%)||Target met||Hold|
IBD margins expected to improve in 2HFY20 We met the management of Dabur to understand current demand scenario, vision and the long term business strategy. Dabur is looking at a sustainable 7-8% volume growth led by 1) strengthening and scaling up of the 8 power...