The 24 reports from 9 analysts offering long term price targets for Dabur India Ltd. have an average target of 456.25. The consensus estimate represents an upside of 7.50% from the last price of 424.40.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2019-08-13||Dabur India Ltd.||Prabhudas Lilladhar||429.25||437.00||429.25 (-1.13%)||Target met||Hold|
IBD margins expected to improve in 2HFY20 We met the management of Dabur to understand current demand scenario, vision and the long term business strategy. Dabur is looking at a sustainable 7-8% volume growth led by 1) strengthening and scaling up of the 8 power...
|2019-07-22||Dabur India Ltd.||HDFC Securities||421.40||470.00||421.40 (0.71%)||10.74||Buy|
New CEO Mohit Malhotra intends to (1) Scale power brands (large addressable opportunity), (2) Increase direct reach in rural (55k villages in FY20 vs 48k now) and (3) Cost optimisation. Most of this is on track, but the rural tilt in sales mix does depend on the progress of the monsoon and government initiatives to revive the rural economy. In FY20, we expect (1) Recovery in gross margins (+70bps vs. -103bps in FY19) led by price hikes and benign input cost inflation, (2) Tight cost controls (A&P) and (3) Favorable operating leverage which will drive EBITDA margin by 181bps (-56bps in FY19). Dabur delivered a strong 1QFY20, despite weak macros and a high base. Cos distribution initiatives and concentrated brand focus have led to ~10% vol. growth, ~2x estimates. This is unprecedented, given Daburs track-record in difficult macros. We model near term softness, maintaining estimates despite the 1Q beat. Our TP of Rs 470 is based on 38x Jun-21E EPS. Maintain BUY.
|2019-07-22||Dabur India Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||421.40||500.00||421.40 (0.71%)||17.81||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
Domestic business grew 10.5% driven by 9.6% growth in volume, supported by higher trade promotions. All key categories witnessed growth: health supplements (+19.6%), digestives (+18.2%), OTC (+13.1%), ethicals (+15.9%), hair oil (+12.1%), shampoo (+10.9%), oral care (+11.4%) and skin care (+12.1%). However, mere 1.5% growth in foods, on account of increased competitive intensity, was a disappointment. Volume growth was encouraging, considering a high base of 21%. However, the management has indicated a further slowdown in rural demand with growth in June...
|2019-07-22||Dabur India Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||421.40||435.00||421.40 (0.71%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Dabur India's domestic performance surprised positively in 1QFY20, delivering a revenue growth of 9.3% YoY which was driven by a 9.6% YoY growth in volume in domestic business. Revenue growth was slightly ahead of our estimate and was likely a result of a combination of measures taken by management like driving network expansion in rural areas, increasing direct reach footprint, streamlining of advertisement and brand promotion spends to focus on their power brands and pick-up in innovation momentum in several categories. These initiatives are very encouraging and indicative of a step in the right direction by management. Moderation in crude oil prices and benign inflation kept the cost pressures in check and the company took an overall price increase of 1.5% in the current quarter. Performance in the International...
|2019-07-19||Dabur India Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||420.20||425.00||420.20 (1.00%)||Target met||Neutral|
|2019-07-19||Dabur India Ltd.||Arihant Capital||423.75||446.00||423.75 (0.15%)||5.09||Hold|
Defying current slowdown in consumer demand, Dabur India came out with good set of numbers, beating our estimate on all fronts. Consolidated revenue for the quarter Q1FY20 grew 9.3% YoY to Rs 2273 cr, above our estimate of Rs 2170 cr. Consolidated EBITDA jumped 18.5% YoY to Rs 458 cr beating our estimate of Rs 401 cr, while EBITDA margin expanded +157bps YoY to 20.1% against our estimate of 18.5%. PAT for the quarter witnessed a decent growth of 10.3% YoY to Rs 363 cr above our estimate of Rs 340 cr. Despite subdued consumer sentiment, domestic business of...
|2019-05-03||Dabur India Ltd.||HDFC Securities||382.00||464.00||382.00 (11.10%)||9.33||Buy|
Dabur is enjoying a renewed consumer fad in naturals' across its portfolio with limited competitive intensity. Dabur's success in FY20-21E will depend on how the co. capitalizes on this opportunity based on (a) Success of new launches, (b) Scaling power brands, (c) Marketing strategy (d) Deeper distribution (rural markets) and (e) Recovery in rural demand. Post the recent correction in the stock, we believe the ask rate is not demanding. New CEO on board would lead to a rejig in the co's strategy and may result in short term pain for long term gain. We advise investors to look at the stock from a medium-long term perspective. Dabur reported a weak show in 4QFY19, as the performance was marred by seasonality impact and slowdown in rural offtake (unlike previous elections). We cut our EPS by 4% for FY20-21E owing to a delay in rural acceleration and weakness in international biz. We believe the govt. will focus on reviving rural consumption, making Dabur the best play (particularly after the recent stock correction). Our TP is at Rs 464 based on 38x FY21E EPS.
|2019-05-03||Dabur India Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||382.00||450.00||382.00 (11.10%)||6.03||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
Rural slowdown dents earnings; international remains subdued The rural market constitutes 45% of the company's sales vs. ~35% for the industry. Domestic FMCG sales growth moderated to 6% due to rural slowdown, liquidity crunch and prolonged winter, which impacted hair care and foods segments. The international business growth also remained muted (1% constant currency growth) due to continued weakness in MENA region and adverse currency in Turkey, Nigeria and Pakistan. We believe steady focus on expanding direct reach in rural areas would augment the...
|2019-05-03||Dabur India Ltd.||Arihant Capital||377.00||446.00||377.00 (12.57%)||5.09||Buy|
Dabur India came out with stable set of numbers, which were mostly in line with our estimate. Consolidated revenue for the quarter Q4FY19 grew 4.7% YoY to Rs 2128 cr, slightly below our estimate of Rs 2229 cr, while EBITDA came at Rs 457 cr exactly in line with our estimate of Rs 456 cr. EBITDA margins came in at 21.5% which was impacted by higher staff costs (+34% YoY). PAT for the quarter stood at Rs 370 cr against our estimate of Rs 404 cr(-6.5% YoY) mainly on account of Rs 75 cr of exceptional loss on account of impairment of goodwill in one of its wholly owned subsidiary M/s Hobi...
|2019-05-03||Dabur India Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||382.00||430.00||382.00 (11.10%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Dabur India's domestic performance witnessed a sharp decline in 4QFY19 which was much weaker than expected considering that rural markets have been somewhat sluggish, up just 5% YoY, which was less than half of what was registered in the previous quarter. This led to a major negative surprise of 3% on the top-line. Growth in international business and margins was also well below expectations, resulting in a decline in operating performance by 6% which was also significantly below expectation. Hair Care and Food segments witnessed a significant decline in growth rate whereas Oral Care, Home Care and Skin Care registered healthy growth rate. Rise in employee costs and other expenditure was the key...
|2019-05-02||Dabur India Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||382.80||415.00||382.80 (10.87%)||Target met||Neutral|
2 May 2019 Sales, EBITDA and adj. DABUR is targeting high-single-digit volume growth in India FMCG in FY20, with 2-3% realization growth. We cut our FY20/21 EPS forecast by ~3%/4% to factor in the companys weaker-than-expected performance. Despite this, FY19 turned out to be the third successive year of single-digit EPS growth and the fifth consecutive year of less than 12% sales growth. The company continues facing challenges in the form of a large and underperforming international business (~30% of sales) and an unwieldy domestic portfolio of brands, many of which are yet to demonstrate sustainably strong growth. Valuations are not cheap at 41.6x FY20, particularly for a business with moderate earnings growth prospects and lower-than-peers RoCEs of mid-20s. At the same time, we do acknowledge that earnings could come in better than expected if rural growth surprises positively and the new CEO further sharpens the focus on growth.
|2019-03-25||Dabur India Ltd.||Arihant Capital||425.15||491.00||425.15 (-0.18%)||15.69||Buy|
Healthy volume growth and stable margins to benefit in the coming years - Initiate with Accumulate rating with Target Price of Rs 491 Dabur India Ltd. (Dabur) is the fourth largest FMCG Company of the country presently catering to health care, personal care & food segment. The company is expected to report 10.9% CAGR growth in revenue over FY18-21E while PAT will witness a CAGR of 12.5% over the same period. We are positive on the future prospects of Dabur and initiate coverage with an...
|2019-02-11||Dabur India Ltd.||Axis Direct||451.00||495.00||451.00 (-5.90%)||16.64||Buy|
|2019-02-05||Dabur India Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||449.50||480.00||449.50 (-5.58%)||13.10||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Dabur India's domestic performance witnessed a sharp uptick in growth rate (15.2% YoY which was nearly double of what was registered in the previous quarter). This led to a major surprise of 3% on the top-line. Growth in International business and margins was well below expectations, resulting in operating and net earnings performance (growth of 10%) which was largely in line with expectation. Supported by intensive marketing efforts, growth rates in Hair Care, Healthcare and Skin Care segments were well above expectations. Rise in promotional spending, volatility and a sharp increase in raw material costs was the key reason behind the substantial decline in gross...
|2019-02-03||Dabur India Ltd.||HDFC Securities||451.50||482.00||451.50 (-6.00%)||13.57||Buy|
We value Dabur at 38x P/Eon Dec-20EPS to arrive at a TP of Rs 482 (Rs 477 earlier). Maintain BUY. Dabur reported an in-line quarter with beat in domestic volume growth (12% vs. est of 9%) and miss on gross margins (-228bps vs. exp of -117bps). International revenue growth dented performance (up 3%) led by GCC region (-12%) and adverse currency. EBITDA/APAT grew by 10/10% (exp 9/12%).
|2019-02-01||Dabur India Ltd.||Emkay||451.50||451.50 (-6.00%)||Hold|
by 12% volume growth. However, the international market had a weak quarter, leading to an in-line performance overall with 10% earnings growth. Margins were adversely affected by inflation in the commodity basket, unfavorable currency movements, and higher promotional expenses in the international market. Although domestic margins are expected to see a recovery, headwinds in the...
|2019-02-01||Dabur India Ltd.||Prabhudas Lilladhar||451.50||456.00||451.50 (-6.00%)||Target met||Hold|
We increase our EPS estimate of FY20 and FY21 by 1.8% and 3.3% respectively given optimistic domestic demand outlook backed by 1) 12.4% domestic volume growth on a high base (13% in 3QFY18) and continued momentum in January sales as well 2) expected pick up in rural sales post consumption led interim budget and 3) softening input costs pressures and...
|2019-02-01||Dabur India Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||451.50||500.00||451.50 (-6.00%)||17.81||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Domestic business grew 14.8% mainly driven by 12.4% volume growth during the quarter. International business reported growth of 1% in constant currency terms impacted by underperformance of MENA markets and adverse currency movement Consumer care segment and foods segment increased 12.7% YoY and 7.6% YoY, respectively. Consumer care segment growth was led by hair oil growth of 23.6%, shampoo category growth of 25.2%,...
|2018-11-22||Dabur India Ltd.||Edelweiss||400.50||442.00||400.50 (5.97%)||Target met||Buy|
|2018-11-01||Dabur India Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||370.20||420.00||370.20 (14.64%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
The 2QFY19 earnings performance of Dabur India (DABUR) was reasonably below overall expectations. After surprising significantly on the upside in the previous quarter, the current quarter saw a sharp reversal though to some extent the management attributed this to seasonality in the areas such as food. Revenues grew 8.5% led by 8.1% volume growth in domestic business. Volume growth, in our view, was largely a function of higher trade promotions during the quarter. Revenue performance was 5% below expectation. Operating profit and net earnings grew 7.4% and 4% YoY, respectively. Gross margin declined 30bps on account of increased pressure on input prices. Staff costs and other overheads grew ahead of...