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Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
28 May 2024
Market trades lower, ICICI Direct retains its 'Buy' call on Hindalco Industries
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 22,888.15 (-44.3, -0.2%), BSE Sensex closed at 75,170.45 (-220.1, -0.3%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 21,387.35 (-105.7, -0.5%). Market breadth is highly negative. Of the 2,115 stocks traded today, 567 were on the uptrend, and 1,509 went down.

Indian indices extended their losses from the afternoon session and closed in the red. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose by 4.4% and closed at 24.2 points. NMDC closed lower after its Q4FY24 net profit fell 37.8% YoY to Rs 1,412.7 crore despite an 18.2% YoY rise in revenue. 

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the red, taking cues from the benchmark index. However, Nifty Media and Nifty Pharma closed higher than their Monday close. According to Trendlyne’s Sector dashboard, FMCG emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 0.7%.

Major Asian indices fell from their open and closed flat or lower, except for Taiwan’s SE index closing in the green. European indices traded mixed on a volatile day of trade. US index futures traded in the green, indicating a positive start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures traded marginally higher after closing in the green for two straight trading sessions.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like Bharat Dynamics, Jupiter Wagons, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, and Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers are in the overbought zone.

  • J Kumar Infraprojects' Q4FY24 net profit rises 34.9% YoY to Rs 99.7 crore, while its revenue increases by 25.4% YoY. EBITDA margin for the quarter stands at 14.3%, compared to 14.1% in Q4FY23. The company appears in a screener for stocks relatively outperforming their industry over the past year.

  • Realty stocks like Brigade Enterprises, Phoenix Mills, Sobha, and Prestige Estates Projects are falling in trade. The broader sectoral indices, BSE Realty and Nifty Realty, are also trading in the red.

  • Nomura believes that India will be the largest beneficiary of the 'China+1' strategy. It holds a positive outlook on the electronics, autos, solar energy, and pharma sectors, driven by the supply chain relocation and the Centre’s focus on boosting manufacturing. Among these sectors, Nomura is bullish on Reliance Industries, Bharat Electronics, Exide Industries, Sona BLW, and UNO Minda.

  • Concord Biotech is falling after Ontario Inc. sells a 3.4% stake in the company, amounting to Rs 519 crore, through a block deal.

  • AstraZeneca Pharma India rises sharply as its net profit surges 128.6% YoY to Rs 39.5 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue grows by 33.9% YoY to Rs 391.9 crore, helped by approval of new medicines and indications. It shows up in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased their shareholding last quarter.

  • Power stocks like CG Power & Industrial Solutions, Adani Power, ABB India and NHPC fall more than 2% in trade. All constituents of the broader BSE Power index are also trading in the red.

  • Reports suggest that 10.2 lakh shares (0.3% equity) of Sun TV Network, amounting to Rs 65.4 crore, change hands in a large deal.

  • NMDC's Q4FY24 net profit falls 37.8% YoY to Rs 1,412.7 crore despite an 18.2% YoY rise in revenue. Profit decreases due to higher royalty expenses and accounting of one-time penal and interest charges. The company increases prices for lump iron ore and fines by 65.5% and 64%, respectively.

  • ICICI Direct retains its 'Buy' call on Hindalco Industries with a higher target price of Rs 835 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 23%. The brokerage remains positive on the stock driven by its strategic capacity expansions at Novelis & Indian operations, and strong demand drivers for aluminium. It expects the company's net profit to grow at a CAGR of 19.2% over FY25-26.

  • PB Fintech is falling after Tencent Cloud Europe sells a 1.2% stake in the company, amounting to Rs 677 crore, through a block deal.

  • Mayank Singhal, Vice Chairman and MD of PI Industries, anticipates strong headwinds in the agrochemicals sector globally in the next few quarters. He projects revenue growth of 15% for FY25 and expects the pharma business to generate over Rs 1,000 crore annually within the next four years.

  • Adani Enterprises is rising as its board of directors approves the fundraising of Rs 16,600 crore via qualified institutional placement (QIP) and other modes in multiple tranches.

  • GMDC falls sharply as its net profit declines by 54.2% YoY to Rs 207.1 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue falls by 31.8% YoY to Rs 822.5 crore, due to a reduction in the power and mining segments. The company features in a screener of stocks with fall in quarterly revenue and net profit (YoY).

  • Reliance Industries' subsidiary, Radisys Corporation, plans to provide support to Ghana-based Next-Gen InfraCo (NGIC) with the launch of 5G services across Ghana in the next six months, followed by expansion to other parts of Africa.

  • According to a poll of economists, India’s GDP is estimated to grow by 6.9% in Q4FY24, and 7.7% in FY24. The GDP numbers are scheduled to be released on Friday.

  • Goodyear India falls as it reports a net loss of Rs 4.2 crore in Q4FY24, compared to a profit of Rs 33.6 crore in Q4FY24, due to weak demand for tractors and trucks. Its revenue drops 15% YoY to Rs 554 crore during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks near their 52-week low.

  • National Aluminium Co rises sharply to its all-time high of Rs 206.3 as its net profit surges by 101.4% YoY to Rs 996.7 crore in Q4FY24, helped by lower raw material costs. However, revenue declines by 1.7% YoY to Rs 3,663.1 crore, due to a reduction in the chemicals and aluminium segments. It features in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased their shareholding in the last two months.

  • Va Tech Wabag rises as it wins a five-year operation and maintenance contract worth Rs 85 crore from Nama Water Services for the Al Duqm desalination plant in Oman.

  • CLSA maintains its ‘Sell’ rating on Nazara Technologies and lowers the target price to Rs 525, citing Q4 earnings below estimates. The brokerage notes the decline in revenue in the Ad Tech and eSports segments.

  • Natco Pharma rises sharply as its net profit surges by 40.1% YoY to Rs 386.3 crore in Q4FY24, helped by lower raw material costs. Revenue grows by 19.8% YoY to Rs 1,110.3 crore due to an improvement in the pharmaceuticals segment. It appears in a screener of stocks with improving book value per share increasing in the last two years.

  • Adani Energy Solutions' board approves raising Rs 12,500 crore through a qualified institutional placement or other permissible modes.

  • Keystone Realtors raises Rs 800 crore via qualified institutional placement. The company sells shares to institutional investors such as Quant MF, SBI Life Insurance, and SBI General Insurance.

  • LIC of India rises as its Q4FY24 net profit grows by 2.4% YoY to Rs 13,672.6 crore. Revenue increases by 25.3% YoY to Rs 2.5 lakh crore, helped by an improvement in premiums. It features in a screener of stocks with a decrease in provisions.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 22,974.30 (41.9, 0.2%), BSE Sensex was trading at 75,585.40 (194.9, 0.3%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 21,538.85 (45.9, 0.2%).

  • Market breadth is in the green. Of the 1,884 stocks traded today, 1,102 showed gains, and 708 showed losses.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include 3M India Ltd. (33,914.55, 9.6%), GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (2,480.50, 5.1%) and Coromandel International Ltd. (1,291.10, 3.6%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Indian Overseas Bank (70.60, -5.2%), UCO Bank (58.15, -4.7%) and IDBI Bank Ltd. (86, -4.1%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

29 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Hatsun Agro Products Ltd. (1,119.75, 11.9%), 3M India Ltd. (33,914.55, 9.6%) and Garware Technical Fibres Ltd. (3,499.80, 9.1%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Borosil Renewables Ltd. (481.10, -5.0%), Capri Global Capital Ltd. (211.70, -4.5%) and Ingersoll-Rand (India) Ltd. (4,347, -4.5%).

Aarti Drugs Ltd. (495.70, 2.7%) was trading at 22.3 times of weekly average. Sumitomo Chemical India Ltd. (449, 1.8%) and Sun TV Network Ltd. (660.70, 3.8%) were trading with volumes 13.6 and 11.6 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

17 stocks made 52 week highs, while 1 stock tanked below their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Aegis Logistics Ltd. (749.80, 0.7%), Amara Raja Energy & Mobility Ltd. (1,247.65, 2.1%) and Ashok Leyland Ltd. (226.85, 0.1%).

Stock making new 52 weeks lows included - KRBL Ltd. (274.85, -0.4%).

8 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Hatsun Agro Products Ltd. (1,119.75, 11.9%) and 3M India Ltd. (33,914.55, 9.6%). 11 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including C.E. Info Systems Ltd. (1,910, -3.3%) and Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd. (3,123.05, -2.6%).

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
27 May 2024
Market closes flat, Divi's Labs' net profit grows 67.6% YoY to Rs 538 crore in Q4FY24
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 22,932.45 (-24.7, -0.1%), BSE Sensex closed at 75,390.50 (-19.9, 0.0%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 21,493 (9.3, 0.0%). Market breadth is in the red. Of the 2,154 stocks traded today, 777 were on the uptick, and 1,327 were down.

Indian indices pared their gains from the afternoon session and closed flat. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose by 6.8% and closed at 23.2 points. Divi's Laboratories hit its 52-week high and closed higher after its net profit grew 67.6% YoY to Rs 538 crore in Q4FY24. The company’s revenue also increased by 18.1% YoY to Rs 2,382 crore during the quarter.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green, outperforming the benchmark index. Nifty Bank and Nifty IT closed higher than their Friday close.  According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Banking and Finance emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 0.9%.

Major Asian indices closed in the green, except for India’s BSE Sensex index closing flat. European indices traded flat or higher amid mixed global cues. US index futures traded marginally lower, indicating a cautious start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures traded in the green after rising 0.8% on Friday.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that stocks like Bharat Dynamics, Bharat Electronics, Schaeffler India, and Hindustan Aeronautics are in the overbought zone.

  • HCL Technologies is rising as it collaborates with its arm to manufacture custom silicon chips that support AI-driven business operations.

  • Divi's Laboratories surges to its 52-week high of Rs 4,359 per share as its net profit grows 67.6% YoY to Rs 538 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue increases by 18.1% YoY to Rs 2,382 crore during the quarter. It features in a screener of stocks with zero promoter pledge.

  • PSU bank stocks like Indian Overseas Bank, UCO Bank, Punjab & Sind Bank, and Central Bank of India are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index, Nifty PSU Bank, is also trading in the green.

  • Goldman Sachs raises India’s GDP growth forecast by 10 bps to 6.7% in CY24. The brokerage now expects the RBI to begin with interest rate cuts in Q4CY24, from the earlier projection of Q3. It says the monetary policy committee is cautious about persistent food inflation due to supply disruptions amid ongoing hot weather conditions in many parts of India.

  • Spicejet falls as Delhi High Court reportedly upholds its order asking the company to return two leased aircraft and three engines to TWC Aviation.

  • Awfis Space Solutions' Rs 598.9 crore IPO gets bids for 50.1X the available 86.3 lakh shares on offer on the last day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 41.2X the available 15.6 lakh shares on offer.

  • Astra Microwave is rising as its net profit surges 302.9% YoY to Rs 54.4 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue grows by 37.5% YoY to Rs 356.7 crore on the back of healthy execution of space orders. It shows up in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue every quarter for the past three quarters.

  • Ashok Kumar Tyagi, the Co-CEO of DLF, notes the strengthening demand for luxury real estate on a QoQ basis. He expects the company to achieve sales of Rs 17,000 crore in FY25, with Rs 3,500 crore coming from the Lux 5 project in Gurugram. Tyagi also highlights the company’s launch pipeline, which includes projects in Goa and Mumbai.

  • KR Choksey retains its 'Accumulate' rating on Devyani International with a target price of Rs 172 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 12.5%. The brokerage remains cautious on the stock due to persistent demand challenges and changing customer preferences in favor of other food categories. It expects the company's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 28.7% over FY25-26.

  • Aurobindo Pharma's Q4FY24 net profit rises 79.5% YoY to Rs 908.8 crore, helped by lower expenses. Revenue increases 16.8% YoY to Rs 7,715 crore during the quarter. The company features in a screener of stocks with increasing profits every quarter for the past four quarters.

  • Nifty 50 rises for five consecutive sessions and hits an all-time high of 23,108.4 today. Stocks like Divi's Laboratories, IndusInd Bank, and Larsen & Toubro are among the top performers in the index.

  • Himanshu Mody, CFO of Suzlon Energy, anticipates the execution of the current order book in the next eight quarters. He adds that the current 3.3 GW order book has a revenue potential of more than Rs 19,800 crore over the next two years.

  • NTPC touches its all-time high of Rs 380.5 per share as its Q4FY24 net profit grows by 26.9% YoY to Rs 6,168.7 crore. Revenue rises by 9.1% YoY to Rs 48,816.6 crore, helped by an improvement in the power generation segment. It features in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased their shareholding in the past two months.

  • AXISCADES Technologies' arm Mistral Solutions wins an order worth Rs 90 crore from Bharat Electronics to develop radar processing systems.

  • Bosch rises as its Q4FY24 profit increases by 41.7% YoY to Rs 564 crore, led by growth in the automotive products segment. Revenue improves by 6.2% YoY during the quarter. The company appears in a screener for stocks hitting a 52-week high today.

  • Satish Pai, Managing Director of Hindalco Industries, expects aluminium prices to stabilise at around $2,400/tonne compared to the current $2,550. He projects improved EBITDA/tonne in Q1, higher than Q4 levels. Pai highlights the capex spending in FY24 at Rs 4,200 crore, and Rs 6,000-7,000 crore planned for FY25.

  • Reliance Power falls sharply as it reports a net loss of Rs 397 crore in Q4FY24, compared to a profit of Rs 321 crore in Q4FY23 due to higher expenses on PPE and capital work in progress. However, its revenue increases 15.6% YoY to Rs 2,193 crore during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks with foreign institutional investors (FII) or institutions increasing their shareholding.

  • Cochin Shipyard surges to its all-time high of Rs 2,100 per share as its net profit rises sharply by 6.6x to Rs 258.9 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue grows by 103.5% YoY to Rs 1,366.2 crore on account of an improvement in the ship building and ship repair segments. It shows up in a screener of stocks with dividend yield higher than their sector dividend yield.

  • Rail Vikas Nigam rises as it wins an order worth Rs 187.3 crore from Maharashtra Metro Rail Corp to construct elevated metro stations.

  • InCred Equities upgrades Divi’s Laboratories to ‘Add’ and raises the target price to Rs 4,707, as the company’s Q4 results beat estimates. The brokerage notes the significant rise in enquiries and improved visibility in the CCS (custom chemical synthesis) business.

  • United Spirits is rising as its net profit surges 136.3% YoY to Rs 241 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue grows by 14% YoY to Rs 6,622 crore, led by improvements in the beverage alcohol, and sports segments. It shows up in a screener of stocks near their 52-week highs with significant volumes.

  • Nazara Technologies' promoter, Mitter Infotech, sells a 6.4% stake in a block deal. Meanwhile, Plutus Wealth Management buys a stake in the company.

  • Macrotech Developers is rising as its subsidiary enters a share purchase agreement to acquire a 50% stake in Siddhivinayak Realties for Rs 415.6 crore.

  • Torrent Pharmaceuticals rises sharply as its net profit grows by 56.4% YoY to Rs 449 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue increases by 11% YoY to Rs 2,776 crore, helped by improvements in the Indian, Germany, and Brazil markets. It features in a screener of stocks with increasing return on equity (RoE) over the last two years.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 23,001.65 (44.6, 0.2%), BSE Sensex was trading at 75,655.46 (245.1, 0.3%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 21,553.90 (70.2, 0.3%).

  • Market breadth is in the green. Of the 1,964 stocks traded today, 1,242 were on the uptick, and 653 were down.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Indian Overseas Bank (74.50, 10.9%), Ashok Leyland Ltd. (226.70, 7.6%) and UCO Bank (61, 7.1%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Hindustan Zinc Ltd. (706.90, -4.8%), Linde India Ltd. (8,704.25, -4.5%) and Solar Industries India Ltd. (9,686.85, -3.2%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

45 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Ltd. (16,261.50, 20%), Indian Overseas Bank (74.50, 10.9%) and Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (1,119.45, 8.1%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were EIH Ltd. (443.95, -5.9%), Sun TV Network Ltd. (636.65, -4.3%) and Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. (1,196.35, -3.1%).

Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences Ltd. (1,820.40, -2.9%) was trading at 11.9 times of weekly average. Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (2,655.25, 1.6%) and AstraZeneca Pharma India Ltd. (6,432.80, 6.8%) were trading with volumes 9.3 and 9.2 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

35 stocks made 52 week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd. (1,431.65, 1.1%), Aegis Logistics Ltd. (744.65, 4.8%) and Amara Raja Energy & Mobility Ltd. (1,221.55, 0.9%).

12 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Ltd. (16,261.50, 20%) and Kajaria Ceramics Ltd. (1,301.55, 2.2%). 16 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including eClerx Services Ltd. (2,180.80, -2.8%) and Jindal Worldwide Ltd. (334.20, -2.3%).

 
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The Baseline
24 May 2024
Five Interesting Stocks Today - May 24, 2024

1. Info Edge (India):

This internet software & services company has risen by 8% over the past week and touched a 52-week high of Rs 6,545 on Thursday. On May 16, Info Edge (India) reported a net profit of Rs 60.4 crore for Q4FY24, compared to a loss of Rs 272.8 crore in Q4FY23. Its revenue grew 8.7% YoY to Rs 657.4 crore, beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 7.2%. EBITDA margins improved by 153 bps YoY to 41% during the quarter. 

Info Edge’s recruitment business and cash cow (Naukri), which accounts for 73% of its revenue, grew by 3.4% YoY in Q4. Billings during the quarter were up 7% YoY. Recruitment business growth was slightly slower compared to the other segments due to a slowdown in IT hiring. Hitesh Oberoi, the Managing Director said, “FY24 was a challenging year for the overall recruitment business largely because of the slowdown in IT hiring”. However, he highlighted that there has been an increase in IT job listings and resumes being viewed by hiring managers over the last 3-4 months. 

Meanwhile, during Q4FY24, the company’s non-recruitment business verticals, namely 99acres.com (real estate), Jeevansathi.com (matrimony), and Shiksha.com (education) grew by 22.5%, 29.2%, and 22.2% respectively. 

In addition to the various lines of online business, the company has invested in several start-up companies. As of March 2024, Info Edge holds 13.6% and 12.7% stakes in Zomato and PB Fintech (PolicyBazaar), respectively. The management reiterated no plans to sell their holdings in these companies, given their growth prospects. Other strategic investments include Nopaperforms Solutions, Ambition Box, and AarogyaAI.  The company highlighted that businesses like Ambition Box and Job Hai have begun monetizing in Q4, and have the potential to grow at a faster pace moving forward.

Post Info Edge’s results announcement, JM Financial upgraded its rating to  'Buy' and raised the target price to Rs 7,000. According to the brokerage, billings growth slowdown in the recruitment segment has bottomed out. It expects EBITDA margins to expand from 40.1% in FY24 to 44.7% in FY27.

2. Balkrishna Industries:

This off-highway tyre manufacturer hit a new 52-week high of Rs 3,174.3 on Tuesday after surging 17.5% in the past week, following the release of its Q4 and FY24 results. In Q4FY24, the company reported revenue growth of 20.2% YoY to Rs 2,852.7 crore, surpassing Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 15.4%. During the same period, its net profit went up by 87.4% YoY to Rs 486.8 crore, beating estimates by 29.1%.

The revenue beat was mainly driven by a 13% volume expansion due to market share gains on a YoY basis, and partially passing higher freight tariffs (due to the Red Sea crisis) onto customers. The increase in net profit was supported by improving EBITDA margins, which grew by 460 basis points YoY to 24.9%.

Geographically, 47.1% of the company’s revenue comes from Europe, 26.8% from India, 16.9% from the Americas, and the rest from other regions. On the global front, the company has a market share of 5-6%. Balkrishna aims to increase it to around 10% in the next five years through diversification and better penetration in the OEM segment, particularly in the non-farm tyre category. Currently, sales from replacements account for 71.1% of revenue, while OEMs contribute 27%.

Joint Managing Director Rajiv Poddar said, “The company is considering price hikes in the coming quarter to counter rising raw material prices, especially in natural rubber, and freight costs.” He also emphasized that India will be a focus market for the firm due to significant growth in the replacement market.

Sharekhan upgrades Balkrishna Industries to ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 3,195. Analysts are upbeat as the management is looking for volume growth in FY25 with margins stable at current levels. They also expect a revival in demand and are positive about the company’s market share strategies.

3. HG Infra Engineering:

This construction & engineering stock has risen by 46.5% over the last month due to its strong Q4FY24 results on May 8 and two order wins on Wednesday. Its Q4FY24 net profit grew by 11.2% YoY to Rs 190 crore, while revenue increased by 11.1% YoY to Rs 1,713.9 crore. Its net profit missed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 10.3%, but revenue beats estimates by 12.4%. The company appears in a screener of stocks outperforming their industries in terms of price change over the past month.

HG Infra’s revenue increased on the back of its order book increasingly diversifying with the addition of solar projects to its existing portfolio of road engineering, procurement and construction (EPC), railways and water projects. Despite a rise in revenue, its order inflow for FY24 stood at Rs 4,350 crore, 45.6% lower than the management’s estimate of Rs 8,000 crore on account of a reduction in orders from the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) due to elections. 

However, the election effect is waning, as the company bagged two orders worth Rs 4,142.2 crore from Maharashtra State Road Development Corp (MSRDC) from the Maharashtra government on Tuesday. Road EPC projects accounted for 38% of the total order book of Rs 12,434 crore in FY24, while 40% originated from hybrid annuity model (HAM) road projects, 22% from railway projects, and the rest from other projects.

Post results, the company’s Chairman and Managing Director, Harendra Singh, said, “We have five solar projects which are expected to be completed by H1FY25. We expect to add new projects worth Rs 11,000-12,000 crores in road, railway, solar and water segments to sustain and scale our business. We believe that we will achieve 15-20% growth in the top line in the coming years and maintain a steady margin in the range of 15-16%.”

Post results, Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on the stock with a target price of Rs 1,320 per share. Since the release of the analyst call on May 13, the stock has risen by 28.5%, achieving the target price. The brokerage believes that the company’s revenue will grow on the bank of a strong order book position, better order intake, diversification into related sectors as well as the government’s infrastructure focus. It expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 15% over FY25-26.

4. Cipla:

This pharma company rose by 10.4% in the past month following multiple announcements. In the past week. The firm received final approval from the US FDA for its Lanreotide injection product, used in tumor treatment. The Lanreotide injection is a generic version of the Somatuline Depot injection. According to IQVIA, Somatuline Depot has annual sales of approximately $898 million.

Cipla also announced its Q4FY24 results this month. Its net profit improved by 80.1% YoY to Rs 939 crore, while revenue increased by 9.2% YoY. It beat Trendlyne Forecaster’s net profit estimates by 10%. The company’s EBITDA grew by 12.1% YoY. The profit growth was due to higher non-operating income as the firm received a Rs 309.7 crore dividend from one of its subsidiaries. The company also appears in a screener for stocks with annual profit growth higher than sector profit growth.

The company plans to incur Rs 1500 crore in capex in FY25. Ashish Adukia, Chief Financial Officer, said, “We expect the EBITDA margin for FY25 to increase by 200 basis points to about 24.5-25.5% compared to FY24.” The management expects to spend 6-7% of revenue in FY25 on research and development.

Meanwhile, four promoters of Cipla sold a total of 2.5% stake (aggregating to 2.1 lakh shares) in the company through open markets. Buyers include global and domestic funds such as ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, Aditya Birla Mutual Fund, Axis Mutual Fund, Societe Generale, and Morgan Stanley Asia.

Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ call on Cipla due to its better-than-expected results from business in the US. The brokerage believes results were driven by more US distributors buying manufactured drugs from India, a shortage of drugs in a few segments and the launch of products like gSynbicort and Peptide with a market size of $300-400 million.

5. PVR INOX:

This movies & entertainment company declined by 1.4% after it announced its results on May 14. The firm missed Trendlyne Forecaster revenue estimates for Q4FY24 by 29.1% and the net profit estimate by 68.3%. The company’s net loss reduced by 61.2% YoY to Rs 219.8 crore on the back of a 4.9% decline in movie exhibition costs. The stock shows up in a screener for stocks with low PE.

The company’s customer footfall declined by 10.7% QoQ to 32.6 million in Q4FY24 on the back of fewer movie releases and promotional offers. Analysts suggest that the upcoming 2024 general elections and T20 Cricket World Cup may exert pressure on the movie pipeline for Q1FY25, potentially resulting in decreased occupancy levels. 

The company’s management anticipates improvements in revenues and costs in FY25. But the effect of streaming platforms on theatre footfalls is a factor that the management does not have a clear answer for. The company plans to reduce losses by cutting annual capital spending, and is exploring options like franchising for its outlets..

The company’s management anticipates a reduction of approximately 25% in total capital expenditure for FY25 compared to the previous year, as it rolls out a new screen portfolio, where its landlord partners will co-invest for most of the screen growth. 

Sanjeev Kumar Bijli, Executive Director of the company, said that in FY24 PVR Inox exited 85 underperforming screens and are going to shut down about 70 underperforming screens in FY25. He adds “We will be very selective in adding new cinemas and plan to open about 120 new streams in FY 25, prioritizing expansion efforts in South India.” 

The company is prioritizing the southern region due to the considerable success of its new program "PVR passport," which offers customers the opportunity to watch four movies per month at PVR INOX theaters for just Rs 87 per ticket. Southern enrollments in PVR passport lead at 35%, followed closely by the North and West regions at approximately 33% each.

Motilal Oswal has retained its "Neutral" rating on PVR INOX with a price target of Rs 1,400. The brokerage says that maintaining occupancy and traction in ad revenues amid an increasing threat from deep-pocketed OTT players is key. The brokerage values PVR INOX at 13x FY26E EV/EBITDA to arrive at a TP of Rs 1,400.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
24 May 2024
Market closes flat, InterGlobe Aviation's net profit rises by 106.1% YoY to Rs 1,894.8 crore in Q4
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 22,957.10 (-10.6, -0.1%), BSE Sensex closed at 75,410.39 (-7.7, 0.0%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 21,483.75 (-5.8, 0.0%). Of the 2,113 stocks traded today, 796 were on the uptrend, and 1,274 went down.

Indian indices pared the gains from the morning session and closed flat. The volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose by 1.5% and closed at 21.7 points. Fortis Healthcare's Q4FY24 net profit rose 46.8% YoY to Rs 203 crore. Revenue increased 8.7% YoY to Rs 1,785.8 crore during the quarter.

Nifty Smallcap 100 closed lower, while Nifty Midcap 100 closed flat following the benchmark index. Nifty Bank and Nifty Media closed higher than Thursday’s closing level. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, fertilizers emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of over 2.4%.

Most European indices trade in the red. US indices futures trade flat, indicating a cautious start. The Federal policy meeting minutes indicated that the committee is looking to delay the interest rate cuts due to sticky inflation. The Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller warned that the board needs to see several months of good data before voting for a rate cut.

  • Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals sees a short buildup in its May 30 future series as its open interest rises 9.6% with a put-call ratio of 0.4.

  • Zaggle Prepaid's Q4FY24 net profit rises 153.3% YoY to Rs 19.15 crore, helped by an increase in interest income. Revenue increases 46% YoY to Rs 273.4 crore during the quarter. The company features in a screener of stocks with increasing profits for the past two quarters.

  • Hindalco's Q4FY24 net profit rises 30% YoY to Rs 3,174 crore, helped by lower expenses. Revenue increases marginally to Rs 55,994 crore during the quarter. The company recommends a dividend of Rs 3.5 per share. It appears in a screener of stocks with new 52-week highs.

  • Century Plyboards falls sharply as its net profit falls 30.6% YoY to Rs 79.5 crore in Q4FY24 due to higher employee benefits, raw material, and finance costs. However, revenue grows 8.9% YoY to Rs 1,068.6 crore due to improvements in the plyboard & allied products, laminate, medium density fibre board, and particle board segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with rising net cash flow and cash from operating activities.

  • CareEdge Ratings expects the gross refining margins of Indian OMCs (oil marketing companies) to moderate in FY25 by around $6-8 per barrel, from $10-12 in FY24. The moderation is due to the narrowing Russian crude discounts, and reduction in product cracks.

  • UPL and Aarti Industries enter into a joint venture named Augene Chemical. The aim is to produce and market specialty chemical products. The companies plan to invest Rs 300 crore over two years into this venture.

  • Awfis Space Solutions' Rs 598.9 crore IPO gets bids for 7.5X the available 86.3 lakh shares on offer on the third day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 17.2X the available 15.6 lakh shares on offer.

  • Godrej Properties falls as the Defence Ministry reportedly raises objections to suspend the company's project in Mumbai, which is 500 meters away from a defence office. The estimated revenue from the project is Rs 7,000 crore.

  • Arun Kumar, Executive Chairman of Strides Pharma, says the company targets EBITDA margins of 22% for FY25. He highlights the new launches in the US market, and adds that the firm aims to achieve revenue of $285-300 million in FY25.

  • KR Choksey keeps its 'Buy' rating on Sun Pharmaceuticals with a target price of Rs 1,827 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 23%. The brokerage expects sustained revenue growth, driven by improvement in all its segments and investments in R&D to build a global product pipeline for the specialty and generics segments. It expects the company's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 10.8% over FY25-26.

  • Fortis Healthcare's Q4FY24 net profit rises 46.8% YoY to Rs 203 crore, helped by lower expenses. Revenue increases 8.7% YoY to Rs 1,785.8 crore during the quarter. The company features in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased shareholding over the past two months.

  • Foreign institutional investors invest Rs 303.4 crore in the equity market over the past week, according to Trendlyne's FII dashboard. However, index options witness the highest outflow of Rs 80,167.4 crore from FIIs.

  • Reports suggest that around 1.1 crore shares (0.5% equity) of Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, amounting to Rs 1,480.5 crore, change hands in a large deal.

  • JK Lakshmi Cement's net profit surges by 41% YoY reaching Rs 162.1 crore in Q4FY24, attributed to reduced inventory and power expenses. However, revenue declines by 4.4% YoY to Rs 1,780 crore for the quarter. It features in a screener of stocks with increasing net profit for the past three quarters.

  • Finolex Cables surges as its Q4FY24 net profit rises 6.3% YoY to Rs 186 crore. Its revenue increases 14.4% YoY to Rs 1,401 crore due to improvements in the electrical cables and copper rods segments. The company appears in a screener of stocks with new 52-week highs today.

  • Caplin Point Laboratories' arm gets US FDA approval for Phenylephrine hydrochloride Ophthalmic Solution, used to dilate the pupil of the eyes. The solution has a market size of $32 million in the US.

  • Nifty 50 breaches the 23,000 mark for the first time, hitting a new record high of 23,004.1 in early trade. The BSE Sensex also reaches a record high of 75,582.3.

  • Honasa Consumer rises sharply as it posts a net profit of Rs 30.4 crore in Q4FY24, compared to a net loss of Rs 160 crore in Q4FY23. Revenue grows by 24.4% YoY to Rs 490.1 crore. It appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds bought stakes in the past two months.

  • Telecom stocks like Vodafone Idea, MTNL, Indus Towers, and Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) are rising sharply in trade, helping the broader BSE Telecom index to reach its all-time high of 2,820.7.

  • Biocon surges to its 52-week high of Rs 329.9 per share as it signs a licensing and supply agreement with Handok in South Korea to commercialize its complex drug product, Synthetic Liraglutide. The drug is an injection in a pre-filled pen used for chronic weight management.

  • Emkay Global initiates coverage on the recently listed Go Digit General Insurance with a ‘Sell’ rating and a target price of Rs 210. The brokerage views the company as a typical player in the general insurance space, focusing more on commercial lines and motors with an intermediary-driven distribution model. It notes the absence of a clear competitive advantage.

  • Vodafone Idea surges as it announces discussions with network vendors, including Ericsson, to supply network gears for 5G rollout.

  • Zee Entertainment Enterprises is rising as it terminates its merger cooperation agreement (MCA) with Sony India and seeks a termination fee of $90 million (approx. Rs 748.9 crore).

  • New World Fund buys a 0.5% stake in Coforge for approx Rs 163.7 crore in a bulk deal on Thursday.

  • InterGlobe Aviation rises as its net profit surges by 106.1% YoY to Rs 1,894.8 crore in Q4FY24, helped by a deferred tax return of Rs 124.2 crore. Revenue grows by 26.7% YoY to Rs 18,505.1 crore on the back of an improvement in passengers carried and higher capacity. It features in a screener of stocks with high FII holding.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Vodafone Idea Ltd. (15.10, 7.5%), Bharat Forge Ltd. (1,573.50, 5.4%) and Power Finance Corporation Ltd. (491.65, 5.2%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Bayer Cropscience Ltd. (5,281, -5.6%), One97 Communications Ltd. (340.95, -4.3%) and FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd. (168.10, -3.5%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

35 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Aegis Logistics Ltd. (710.25, 12.7%), Finolex Cables Ltd. (1282.60, 12.1%) and Amara Raja Energy & Mobility Ltd. (1,210.15, 8.6%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Vaibhav Global Ltd. (371.50, -4.7%), InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. (4,256.50, -3.3%) and Chemplast Sanmar Ltd. (475, -1.9%).

JK Lakshmi Cement Ltd. (805.50, 1.4%) was trading at 22.5 times of weekly average. Bikaji Foods International Ltd. (556.30, 4.1%) and AstraZeneca Pharma India Ltd. (6,024.75, 6.1%) were trading with volumes 19.6 and 9.6 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

43 stocks overperformed with 52-week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Aegis Logistics Ltd. (710.25, 12.7%), Amara Raja Energy & Mobility Ltd. (1,210.15, 8.6%) and Ambuja Cements Ltd. (635.30, -1.7%).

12 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd. (3,228.95, 2.3%) and Archean Chemical Industries Ltd. (625.05, 1.9%). 8 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Bayer Cropscience Ltd. (5,281, -5.6%) and Clean Science & Technology Ltd. (1,373, -2.8%).

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
23 May 2024
Market closes higher, Garden Reach Shipbuilders' net profit grows by 101.8% YoY to Rs 111.6 crore in Q4
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 22,967.65 (369.9, 1.6%), BSE Sensex closed at 75,418.04 (1197.0, 1.6%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 21,489.55 (251.8, 1.2%). Market breadth is in the red. Of the 2,119 stocks traded today, 938 were on the uptick, and 1,137 were down.

Indian indices extended their gains from the afternoon session and closed at their record highs. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, fell 0.4% and closed at 21.4 points. Minda Corp closed lower after its net profit plunged 42% YoY to Rs 70.8 crore in Q4FY24, due to higher raw materials, employee benefits, and finance costs.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green but underperformed the benchmark index. Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Infra closed higher than their Wednesday close. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Commercial Services & Supplies emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 4.3%.

Major European indices trade in the green, except for the UK’s FTSE 100 index trading flat. However, Asian indices closed mixed on a volatile day of trade. US index futures trade in the green, indicating a positive start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures trade in the green after falling 1% on Wednesday.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like Jupiter Wagons, ABB India, PNC Infratech, and Hindustan Zinc are in the overbought zone.

  • Taj GVK Hotels & Resorts' Q4FY24 net profit rises 79% YoY to Rs 25.8 crore, helped by lower expenses. Revenue increases 11.7% YoY to Rs 115.8 crore during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks near their 52-week highs.

  • GPT Infraprojects surges as it wins an order worth Rs 554.9 crore from Rail Vikas Nigam for various construction work.

  • Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers surges to its all-time high of Rs 1,424.8 per share as its net profit grows by 101.8% YoY to Rs 111.6 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue rises by 62.7% YoY to Rs 1,091.6 crore. It features in a screener of stocks with increasing net profit for the past four quarters.

  • Reports suggest that 4.1 crore shares (7% equity) of Star Health and Allied Insurance, worth approx. Rs 2,200 crore change hands through block deals. FDI investors, Apis Partners, Madison (MIO), and ROC Capital are the likely sellers in the transaction.

  • Awfis Space Solutions' Rs 598.9 crore IPO gets bids for 3.4X the available 86.3 lakh shares on offer on the second day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 10.3X the available 15.6 lakh shares on offer.

  • Aether Industries rises as the Gujarat Pollution Control Board (GPCB) revokes the closure order for its manufacturing facility II, after partially halting operations following a fire incident on November 29, 2023. The company can now resume at 75% capacity.

  • Oil India signs an agreement with Numaligarh Refinery to transport additional petroleum products via the NSP (Numaligarh-Siliguri product pipeline) following the commissioning of the Numaligarh Refinery Expansion Project.

  • Nifty 50 hits an all-time high of 22,880.6 today. BSE Sensex also reaches a record high of 75,124.3.

  • Auto stocks like Eicher Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki India, and Samvardhana Motherson International are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index Nifty Auto hits an all-time high of 23,676.9 today.

  • Torrent Power's Q4FY24 net profit drops 7.6% YoY to Rs 447 crore due to an increase in global fuel prices. However, revenue increases 8.1% YoY to Rs 6,528.5 crore during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks with FII / FPI or institutions increasing their shareholding.

  • Power Grid Corp falls sharply as its net profit declines by 3.6% YoY to Rs 4,166.3 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue falls by 2% YoY to Rs 12,305.4 crore due to a reduction in the transmission segment. The company's board approves a line of credit of Rs 5,000 crore from a consortium of banks.

  • Surendran Chemmenkotil, the CEO of Metropolis Healthcare, highlights the company’s plan to increase its presence into 1,000 towns, with a major focus on northern and eastern markets, over the next two years. He adds that the firm is looking for merger & acquisition opportunities, and aims to set up 25 new labs in FY25.

  • KPI Green Energy's board approves the sub-division of existing equity shares in the proportion of 1:2. The record date for the purpose of the split will be intimated in due course.

  • HEG falls as its board approves the demerger of its graphite business into a new company (to be incorporated) to create two independent entities addressing separate growth prospects. Post-demerger, HEG will consolidate Bhilwara Energy with itself, and the existing company will become a platform for green energy businesses.

  • FSN E-Commerce Ventures' (Nykaa) Q4FY24 net profit jumps 298% YoY to Rs 9 crore, helped by lower inventory and raw material costs. Revenue increases 28% YoY to Rs 1,668 crore during the quarter. The company appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds have increased their holding over the past two months.

  • Nomura raises the target price on Cipla to Rs 1,535, while it maintains its ’Neutral’ rating. The brokerage believes that the US FDA approval for the therapeutic equivalent version of Somatuline will help gain an additional market share. It also notes the growth in the company’s overall volumes by 10-15% YoY.

  • PSU banks like Indian Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, Bank of Maharashtra and Bank of Baroda rise more than 2% in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty PSU Bank index are also trading in the green.

  • Godrej Properties sells around 650 homes and achieves a booking value of over Rs 2,000 crore through the launch of its project Godrej Jardinia in Noida.

  • PG Electroplast surges to its all-time high of Rs 2,600 as its net profit grows by 73.2% YoY to Rs 69.6 crore in Q4FY24, helped by returns from sales of inventory. Revenue increases by 30.2% YoY to Rs 1,080 crore, due to improvements in the products, plastic, and electronics segments. It shows up in a screener of stocks with zero promoter pledge.

  • Oravel Stays (OYO) withdraws its draft papers filed with the Securities Exchange Board for an initial public offer (IPO). This is the second time in nearly three years the company has pulled its IPO plans.

  • Go Digit General Insurance’s shares debut on the bourses at a 5.2% premium to the issue price of Rs 272. The Rs 2,615 crore IPO has received bids for 9.6 times the total shares on offer.

  • Minda Corp is falling as its net profit plunges 42% YoY to Rs 70.8 crore in Q4FY24, due to higher raw materials, employee benefits, and finance costs. However, revenue grows by 13.7% YoY to Rs 1,224.8 crore, driven by improvements in the two-wheeler, passenger vehicles, and three-wheeler segments. It appears in a screener of stocks where insiders sold their shareholding.

  • Keystone Realtors' board approves raising funds through a qualified institutional placement (QIP). The board has set the floor price at Rs 682.5 per share for the QIP and aims to raise around Rs 1,000 crore.

  • Jubilant Foodworks rises sharply as its net profit grows 7.3x YoY to Rs 207.5 crore in Q4FY24, helped by an exceptional gain of Rs 170.2 crore. Revenue increases by 23.6% YoY to Rs 1,594.1 crore, driven by improvements in the Indian and International businesses. It features in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue for the past four quarters.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 22,596.85 (-1.0, 0%), BSE Sensex was trading at 74,253.53 (32.5, 0.0%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 21,272.65 (34.9, 0.2%).

  • Market breadth is ticking up strongly. Of the 1,857 stocks traded today, 1,310 were on the uptick, and 497 were down.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include UNO Minda Ltd. (829.95, 9.5%), Adani Enterprises Ltd. (3,387.30, 7.8%) and Indian Railway Finance Corporation Ltd. (186.50, 6.2%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Deepak Nitrite Ltd. (2,334.90, -5.2%), Lupin Ltd. (1,632.65, -4.9%) and Max Healthcare Institute Ltd. (803.05, -4.2%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

25 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included UNO Minda Ltd. (829.95, 9.5%), Adani Enterprises Ltd. (3,387.30, 7.8%) and PNB Housing Finance Ltd. (798.65, 7.2%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were HEG Ltd. (2,247.50, -16.4%), GMM Pfaudler Ltd. (1,323.05, -5.9%) and Deepak Nitrite Ltd. (2,334.90, -5.2%).

Gland Pharma Ltd. (1,881.85, 5.0%) was trading at 11.7 times of weekly average. Jubilant Foodworks Ltd. (475, -1.0%) and Star Health and Allied Insurance Company Ltd. (548.85, 1.7%) were trading with volumes 7.8 and 7.3 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

39 stocks took off, crossing 52 week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd. (1,443.35, 4.7%), Adani Power Ltd. (711.35, 2.9%) and Ashok Leyland Ltd. (212.35, 2.0%).

14 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including JK Paper Ltd. (379.80, 2.9%) and Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Ltd. (410, 2.0%). 6 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Balaji Amines Ltd. (2,213.35, -1.1%) and 3M India Ltd. (30,900, -0.9%).

 
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The Baseline
22 May 2024
Should we worry about foreign investors exiting markets?| Screener: stocks where FIIs have cut stake
By Shreesh Biradar

The election this year has come with much nail-biting. It’s not just political parties that are having the jitters – investors are also facing sharp market swings and volatility. The Nifty VIX rose to a 15-month high of 22.3 points as of Tuesday, while the Nifty 50 has been range-bound since the start of the polling season.

Foreign institutional investors in particular have grown wary of the volatility. They are at their most pessimistic level since 2012, shorting Indian stocks significantly, and have withdrawn around $3.5 billion from Indian equities in May alone. For now, foreign outflows have not dented valuations much, as inflows from domestic institutions have jumped.

Rising bond yields in the US have also contributed to FII withdrawal. Bond yields are up as the timing of likely rate cuts by the US Fed keeps getting postponed, shifting from June-July to September-October. And despite tensions between the US and China, cheaper valuations of Chinese and Hong Kong equities (currently trading at 10 PE) have been tempting foreign investors.

Mihir Vora, Chief Investment Officer of Trust Mutual Fund, says, “ FII outflows are on account of election uncertainty. India in the longer term will see FII inflows, as it is one of the fastest growing countries among large economies”. 

Historically, FIIs have returned to Indian markets post elections. Will this year be different?

In this week’s Analyticks:

  • FIIs exit stocks: How is the exodus impacting Indian markets?
  • Screener: Stocks where FII/FPIs are decreasing shareholding, with falling stock prices over the past month

Let’s get into it.

Election-led volatility, rising US bond yields trigger FII outflows

Volatility – a good measure of risk in the market – has risen significantly over the past month for India. But this is not the first time an election has driven the Nifty VIX up. The volatility index shot up during the 2014 election (a change election), to 38 points. In 2019, when the BJP won reelection, it rose to 29 points. Comparatively, the current rise of the Nifty VIX is on the lower side. 

But foreign investors hate uncertainty, and net outflows are likely to persist until the results are announced. If a single party wins, FIIs might return quickly to Indian equities.

Nifty VIX on the lower side so far, compared to the past two general elections

The strengthening US dollar has also fuelled FII outflows since a depreciating rupee eats into investor gains. Another reason for the outflow has been rising bond yields in the US. 

Sticky inflation and a strong American job market have put the US Fed in a tight spot as far as cutting interest rates is concerned. Rate cuts are now expected only in September, and the expected rate cut size has gone down from 90 bps at the start of 2024 to around 44 bpsnow. As a result, US treasury yields shot up from 3.8% at the start of 2024 to 4.7% by the end of April. The rising yield has attracted foreign investors.

Historically, Indian indices fall with a rise in US treasury bond yields, due to FII outflows. Recent DII inflows have buffered the fall, as domestic institutions invested Rs 2,50,903 crores from April 2023 to April 2024.

Rising US bond yields have triggered FII selling

Largecaps impacted by FII outflow, DIIs protect the fall

Since the start of 2024, FIIs have withdrawn nearly Rs 84,318 crore worth of equity from the Indian market. In the same period, DIIs invested around Rs 1,52,620 crore.

DIIs sustain Indian markets amid FII outflows in the past 12 months

The Nifty 50 has risen 3.3% from the start of 2024, while Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 have gained 11.5% and 11% respectively. FII money has mainly been in largecap and midcap stocks, while DIIs have invested in midcap and smallcap.

As a result, the FII outflow from largecaps has been cushioned only a bit by DIIs. The midcap and smallcap rallies have been backed by DII inflows, despite concerns about their expensive valuations.

Telecommunication and consumer services sectors get maximum inflows, while FMCG and financial services see an exodus.

The telecom services sector saw the highest inflows from FIIs in 2024. The inflows were driven by Vodafone Idea’s FPO. The Vodafone issue saw FIIs buying 65% (Rs 11,700 crore) of the Rs 18,000 crore FPO.  The sector also saw FII investments in Bharti Airtel, which has gained significant market share in the past year, even as it raised overall tariff rates.

The capital goods (general industrial) sector saw investments in the defence industries. The defence industry was aided by large orders from the government – Indian defence firms won orders of more than $7 billion in FY24. Capital goods firms involved in infrastructure and real estate also saw increased volumes, due to higher election spending by the government and an uptick in real estate activity.

The telecommunication sector has led FPI inflows since January 2024

The financial services sector on the other hand, saw the highest selling in 2024. Most of the selling came in private banks and NBFCs, which have faced liquidity concerns and stiff competition from public sector banks. HDFC Bank – usually an FII favourite – saw the biggest exodus. HDFC Bank’s margins are under pressure, while merger woes continue. 

The FMCG sector also saw pressure as rural consumption slowed. The premiumization of products led to lower offtake in price-sensitive rural geography. However, higher consumption in urban areas has offset this a bit.

FIIs may choose India over China in the long run

Chinese stocks are now at at an attractive valuation compared to India. The government stimulus in China (around $138 billion) and the recent pick-up in industrial production have driven foreign inflows up. But the economic woes in the country and the rising threat of a US-China trade war may dent enthusiasm for the Chinese market in the longer term.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has guided India’s GDP growth of 6.8% for 2024, which is the highest among emerging economies. In comparison, China is expected to slow down to 4.6% GDP growth in 2024, from 5.2% in 2023. India’s inflation, currently at 4.8%, is also predicted to decline post-monsoons due to an expected fall in vegetable prices. 

While most emerging economies are struggling with price rises, slowdowns and geo-political tensions, India has so far not seen a major dent in growth. Increased tariffs on Chinese goods from the US and EU have impacted its growth prospects, and India is being seen by the world as a good alternative. 

In this scenario, current FII outflows are not a big worry. DIIs have been actively investing without any signs of slowing down. Foreign investors are expected to return in two phases, first, post-election, and then after the Fed starts rate cuts in the second half of 2024. Until then, DIIs will run the show.

Screener: FII/FPI decreasing shareholding QoQ with falling stock prices over the past month

Banking and finance stocks see highest FII outflows in Q4FY24

As the shareholding data for the final quarter of FY24 has come out, we take a look at stocks that saw a decline in their foreign institutional investor (FII) holdings during the quarter. This screener shows stocks where FII decreased their stake QoQ, where share prices declined over the past month.

The screener is dominated by stocks from the banking & finance, software & services, textiles, apparels & accessories and diversified consumer services sectors. Major stocks that appear in the screener are Aster DM Healthcare, Route Mobile, Kalyan Jewellers, PVR INOX, HDFC Bank, Star Health and Allied Insurance, Indus Towers and Indiabulls Housing Finance.

Aster DM Healthcare’s FII holding contracted the most by 7.5 percentage points in Q4FY24, while its stock price also plunged by 30.8% over the past month. The fall in stock price is mainly due to the company giving out a special dividend of Rs 118 per share on April 23.  Olympus Capital Asia Investments was the largest seller in the healthcare stock with a sale of an 8.9% stake in the company. The sold shares were picked up by mutual funds like Nippon Life India Trustee Ltd-A/C Nippon India Small Cap Fund (2.1% stake) and Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund (0.6% stake), and retail investors (1% stake).

FIIs sold a 5% stake in PVR INOX in Q4FY24, the stock has also fallen 5.3% over the past month. Funds like Plenty Private Equity Fund I and Multiples Private Equity Fund II LLP, among others sold a total of 2.3% stake in the movies & entertainment company. The sold stake was picked up by mutual funds like Nippon Life India Trustee Ltd-A/C Nippon India Mul (1.5% stake), HDFC Trustee Company Ltd. A/C Hdfc Capital Builder (3.8% stake and ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund (1.4% stake). 

You can find more screeners here.


 
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The Baseline
22 May 2024
Chart of the Week: 13 of the 15 stocks constituting the Nifty Metal index trade near all-time highs
By Satyam Kumar

A week ago, US President Joe Biden imposed a new tariff hike on Chinese products, which is projected to affect around $18 billion in annual imports from China. He accused China of heavily subsidising products, causing Chinese companies to produce more than what the market can absorb and then dumping the excess at unfairly low prices. He said, “When you follow tactics like this, you’re not competing. It’s not competition, it’s cheating.”

Since the tariff hike on May 14, the Nifty Metal index as of May 22 has posted a sharp rally of 9.1%, as Indian exporters stand to gain from a fairer playing field. However, experts caution about US tariffs diverting the dumping of Chinese goods to India.

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we will be looking at the performance of India’s metal index, Nifty Metal, over the past year. As of May 22, the index has risen 76.6%, outperforming the benchmark Nifty 50, which has increased by 24.1%. This rise is mainly due to quick government intervention against Chinese dumping and surging commodity prices globally.

Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta drove index gains in the past quarter

In the past quarter, the metal index rose 24.4%, with approximately 70% of the gains driven by Vedanta and its subsidiary Hindustan Zinc. Since March 28, 2024, Vedanta and Hindustan Zinc have surged by 81% and 154%, respectively. This rally can be attributed to clarifications on debt distribution post-demerger and rising prices of base metals such as zinc, lead and silver.

On September 29, 2023, Vedanta's Chairman, Anil Agarwal, announced the creation of independent verticals through the demerger of Vedanta and Hindustan Zinc. He expects the demerger to be completed by the end of this year. The company also clarified that debt will be divided among demerged entities based on the ratio of assets allocated. In Q4FY24, the company reduced its debt by 10% QoQ to Rs 56,338 crore.

Hindustan Copper is the best-performing stock in the index, with gains of 299% in the past year. The company's shares have consistently risen in line with increased demand and movements in copper prices. Copper, an essential base metal, plays a pivotal role in the energy transition ecosystem, serving as a key component in manufacturing electric vehicles, power grids, and wind turbines. Recently, speculations of a shortage fueled by talks of output cuts by smelters have led copper prices to surge by over 25% since the start of the year.

Commodity trading company Adani Enterprises also gained 59.4% in the past year. On May 22, the company surged 18.9% as the conglomerate received a clean chit from the Supreme Court of India regarding the Hindenburg case. The apex court appointed a six-member committee following allegations of stock manipulation and accounting fraud by U.S.-based short-seller Hindenburg Research.

Selling by FPIs led index to decline in the Sept-Oct 2023 period

Among all the sectors, the metals and mining sector saw the highest FPI outflow of Rs 8,531 crore in FY24. Companies faced major hurdles due to the dumping of steel at cheaper rates and sub-standard imports from China. Between April and July 2023, steel imports from China to India rose 62% YoY, leading to a significant sell-off by foreign portfolio investors (FPI) of Rs 12,009 crore in August and September last year.

In response, the Indian government imposed a five-year anti-dumping duty on specific types of Chinese steel in September 2023. This tax, levied on imported goods priced below fair market value, aims to curb Chinese imports. The industry is also expected to address production gaps in 2024, supported by policy reforms, incentives, and expansion plans by industry giants such as Tata Steel, Vedanta, and JSW Steel.

Expanding manufacturing PMI boosts outlook for the metal sector

Manufacturing activity, which is indicated by the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), is said to be expanding when it is higher than 50. The PMI for India has been above 50 for all of the past year, signifying robust growth in the manufacturing space. Rising PMI is often directly correlated to the higher demand for metals. On April 1, the metal index rose 3.7% after both the US and China posted expansion in their manufacturing activity in March 2024.

The US saw its manufacturing activity expand in March 2024 as it posted a PMI of 50.3 for the first time since September 2022. Although this figure is just above the threshold of 50, which separates expansion from contraction (PMI below 50), it ended a 16-month streak of shrinking activity. 

Similarly, China's manufacturing activity expanded in March for the first time since September 2023, as its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 from 49.1 in February. The data offered some relief to China’s policymakers, even as a crisis in the property sector remains a drag on the economy.

Higher steel prices & anti-dumping duty help steel makers

In November 2023, the metal index posted a monthly gain of 8.8%. This rise came after steel-producing constituents witnessed a significant uptick in their share prices as they benefitted from the surging steel prices. This rise in steel prices was due to a rapid decline in inventories and a recovery in end-consumer demand. Since November 2023, companies like Steel Authority of India (SAIL), Tata Steel and JSW Steel have risen 110.3%, 49.5% and 27.5% respectively.

Another factor that is playing in their favour is the higher tariff imposed by governments across the globe to curb Chinese dumping. India saw a 62% rise in steel imports from China to India between April and July 2023, compared to the same period last year. The Indian government imposed an anti-dumping duty of $613 per tonne on flat base steel wheels from China for five years. Similarly, the US government on May 14 raised tariffs on some steel and aluminium products to 25%, citing China's "unfair" policies that were harming workers and businesses in the US. The rising anti-China mood in the commodity market has boosted Indian metal stocks, a trend that is likely to continue in the coming quarters.

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
22 May 2024
Market closes higher, Hitachi Energy's net profit surges 123.7% YoY to Rs 113.7 crore in Q4
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 22,597.80 (68.8, 0.3%), BSE Sensex closed at 74,221.06 (267.8, 0.4%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 21,237.75 (50.1, 0.2%). Of the 2,120 stocks traded today, 1,016 were gainers and 1,058 were losers.

Indian indices extended their gains from the afternoon session and closed in the green. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, fell 1.6% and closed at 21.5 points. JK Tyre & Industries closed sharply higher after its Q4FY24 net profit rose 55.4% YoY to Rs 175 crore, due to a Rs 133.4 crore return from inventories and lower finance costs.

Nifty Smallcap 100 closed in the red, despite the benchmark index closing in the green. Nifty Midcap 100 closed higher but underperformed the Nifty 50. Nifty IT and Nifty FMCG closed higher than their Tuesday close. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Telecommunications Equipment emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 2.2%.

Major Asian indices closed flat or lower, except for India’s BSE Sensex closing higher. European indices also traded flat or lower, taking cues from Asian indices. US index futures traded marginally lower, indicating a cautious start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures traded in the red after falling 1.4% on a volatile day on Tuesday.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that stocks like Balkrishna Industries, Hindustan Zinc, Havells India and Siemens are in the overbought zone.

  • SpiceJet rises as it seeks a refund of Rs 450 crore out of the Rs 730 crore it previously paid to former promoter Kalanithi Maran and his firm, KAL Airways, following the Delhi High Court’s order on May 17.

  • KR Choksey downgrades Tata Motors to 'Accumulate' from 'Buy' with a lower target price of Rs 1,043 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 10.1%. The brokerage expects a near-term slowdown due to subdued growth in the domestic PV and CV sectors amid industry obstacles. It projects the company's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% over FY25-26.

  • Indian Bank's board approves raising Rs 5,000 crore via qualified institutional placement, follow-up public offer, or rights issue. The board also approves raising Rs 2,000 crore by issuing perpetual bonds and Rs 5,000 crore through long-term infrastructure bonds.

  • IREDA plans to launch an FPO (follow-on public offer) this year to capitalise on rising financing opportunities in the energy transition space and enhance the company's growth.

  • M&M Financial Services rises as it receives a 'Corporate Agent' certification from the IRDAI. This will help the company to sell life, health and general insurance.

  • Awfis Space Solutions' Rs 598.9 crore IPO gets bids for 1X the available 86.3 lakh shares on offer on the first day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 4X the available 15.6 lakh shares on offer.

  • Hitachi Energy India's net profit surges 123.7% YoY to Rs 113.7 crore in Q4FY24, beating Forecaster estimates by 89.2%. Revenue grows by 27.1% YoY to Rs 1,695.3 crore helped by an improvement in order inflow from exports. It shows up in a screener of stocks with more than 20% rise in the past month.

  • K Natarajan, MD and CEO of Galaxy Surfactants, highlights the company’s target to achieve volume growth of 6-8% and EBITDA/mt of around Rs 20,500-21,500 in FY25. He expects demand recovery in the US and Europe.

  • Strides Pharma gets US FDA approval for Sucralfate Oral Suspension, marking the first Indian approval for this complex formulation. It is a therapeutic equivalent version of Carafate, used to treat diseases in the gastrointestinal tract, and has a market size of $124 million.

  • Metropolis Healthcare's net profit rises 9% YoY to Rs 36.5 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue increases 17% YoY to Rs 331 crore during the quarter, driven by strong growth in the B2C segment, and the Mumbai market. The company features in a screener of stocks with new 52-week highs today.

  • Granules India's promoter, Krishna Prasad Chigurupati, sells a 3.1% stake (75 lakh equity shares) in the company through a block deal.

  • Jefferies notes the moderation in spending for the credit card industry in April. The brokerage highlights that SBI Cards, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank have witnessed a marginal MoM rise in spending share, while that of HDFC Bank and IndusInd Bank fell.

  • Awfis Space Solutions raises Rs 268.6 crore from anchor investors ahead of its IPO by allotting 70.1 lakh shares at Rs 383 each. Investors include Ashoka Whiteoak ICAV, HDFC Mutual Fund, ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, Nippon Life India, Axis Mutual Fund, Motilal Oswal MF, and Edelweiss.

  • One97 Communications' revenue declines by 2.7% YoY to Rs 2,398.8 crore in Q4FY24 due to disruptions in the payments business caused by the RBI ban. Net loss expands 3.3x to Rs 549.6 crore caused by higher employee benefits expenses. It features in a screener of stocks underperforming their industries in the last quarter.

  • JK Tyre's Q4FY24 net profit rises 55.4% YoY to Rs 175 crore, due to a Rs 133.4 crore return from inventories and lower finance costs. Revenue increases 1.8% YoY to Rs 3,698.5 crore during the quarter. The company features in a screener for strong performer, under radar stocks (DVM).

  • Bhanu Chopra, Managing Director of RateGain Travel Tech, expects organic growth at 20% in FY25, compared to over 30% in FY24. He adds that the company targets to double its revenue to Rs 2,000 crore in the next few years. Chopra adds that RateGain aims to improve EBITDA margins by 100-200 bps.

  • Cipla gets US FDA approval for its abbreviated new drug application for Lanreotide Injection. It is a therapeutic equivalent version of Somatuline and is used for the treatment of patients with acromegaly and gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. Somatuline has an annual market size of $898 million.

  • HG Infra Engineering surges as it wins two orders worth Rs 4,142.2 crore from Maharashtra State Road Development Corp to construct expressways.

  • Suzlon Energy rises sharply as it bags an order to supply 134 wind turbines with a rated capacity of 3 MW each for the development of a 402 MW wind energy project by Juniper Green Energy in Rajasthan.

  • Reports suggest that 2.2 crore shares (3.5% equity) of Apollo Tyres, worth approx over Rs 1,000 crore, change hands in a block deal. Private equity firm Warburg Pincus is a likely seller in this transaction.

  • Anil Kumar Goel sells a 0.7% stake in GRP for approx Rs 8.3 crore in a bulk deal on Tuesday.

  • GAIL (India) to reportedly invest Rs 50,000 crore to build a 1.5 million tonnes per annum ethane cracking unit in Madhya Pradesh.

  • PNC Infratech surges to its all-time high of Rs 485 per share as it emerges as the lowest bidder of Rs 4,994 crore for two road projects in an auction held by the Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation (MSRDC). The projects include the construction of an access-controlled ring road in Pune and an access-controlled expressway connector from Jalna to Nanded.

  • Bharat Heavy Electricals falls sharply as its net profit declines by 25.6% YoY to Rs 489.6 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue grows by 0.9% YoY to Rs 8,416.8 crore due to an increase in the industry segment. It appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds decreased their shareholding in the last quarter.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include General Insurance Corporation of India (379.30, 10.0%), Macrotech Developers Ltd. (1,312.60, 5.6%) and Solar Industries India Ltd. (9,945.90, 5.3%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. (301.95, -5.4%), Linde India Ltd. (9,283.55, -4.2%) and NMDC Ltd. (273.20, -3.2%).

Volume Rockets

35 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included PNC Infratech Ltd. (517.60, 13.1%), General Insurance Corporation of India (379.30, 10.0%) and Finolex Cables Ltd. (1,159.60, 9.6%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Gujarat State Fertilizer & Chemicals Ltd. (221.55, -8.2%), Global Health Ltd. (1240.45, -7.1%) and Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. (301.95, -5.4%).

Sheela Foam Ltd. (924.95, 0.1%) was trading at 15.2 times of weekly average. Metropolis Healthcare Ltd. (1956.05, 2.8%) and KNR Constructions Ltd. (276, 5.4%) were trading with volumes 12.6 and 12.3 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

46 stocks made 52 week highs, while 1 stock tanked below their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Adani Power Ltd. (691.45, 1.7%), Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. (1,222.75, 0.4%) and Bharat Electronics Ltd. (283.60, 3.5%).

Stock making new 52-week lows included - CCL Products India Ltd. (565.10, 2.0%).

13 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including KNR Constructions Ltd. (276, 5.4%) and Vinati Organics Ltd. (1,766, 3.4%). 13 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including AIA Engineering Ltd. (3,650, -2.5%) and Orient Electric Ltd. (216.50, -2.3%).

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
21 May 2024
Market closes flat, Man Industries (India) wins new export orders worth Rs 505 crore

Nifty 50 closed at 22,529.05 (27.1, 0.1%), BSE Sensex closed at 73,953.31 (-52.6, -0.1%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 21,187.65 (43.2, 0.2%). Market breadth is in the red. Of the 2,176 stocks traded today, 799 were gainers and 1,340 were losers.

Indian indices pared the gains from the afternoon session and closed flat. The volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose by 6.2% and closed at 21.8 points. Biocon's arm Biocon Biologics gets US FDA approval for Yesafili, an interchangeable biosimilar to Aflibercept, used to treat different types of ophthalmology conditions. Aflibercept has an annual market size of $5.9 billion.

Nifty Smallcap 100 closed lower, while Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green with the benchmark index closing flat. Nifty Metal and Nifty Media closed higher than Friday’s closing level. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, metal & mining emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of over 5.2%. 

Most European indices trade in the red. US indices futures trade flat, indicating a cautious start. Post tariff increases by the US government on Chinese products, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the US and Europe need to stop intake of China’s excess goods.

  • Astral sees a short buildup in its May 30 future series as its open interest rises 23.8% with a put-call ratio of 0.4.

  • Man Industries (India) wins new export orders worth Rs 505 crore. Its total unexecuted order book stands at approx Rs 2,100 crore to be executed in the next six to eight months.

  • Deepak Nitrite's net profit rises 8.5% YoY to Rs 254 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue increases 8.4% YoY to Rs 2,126 crore during the quarter, due to an improvement in the phenolics segment. The company features in a screener of stocks near their 52-week highs.

  • Aether Industries falls sharply as it posts a net loss of Rs 1.4 crore in Q4FY24 compared to a net profit of Rs 37.6 crore in Q4FY23, due to higher employee benefits and finance costs. Revenue declines by 30% YoY to Rs 129.1 crore, caused by a reduction in the large scale manufacturing, contract manufacturing, and contract research and manufacturing segments. It shows up in a screener of stocks underperforming their industries in the past quarter.

  • CB Ananthakrishnan, Director-Finance and CFO of Hindustan Aeronautics says, the company targets revenue growth of 15% in the next 2-3 years. He expects an order book of around Rs 1.2 lakh crore in FY25 and projects it to reach Rs 3 lakh crore in three years.

  • Vodafone Idea rises as it approves raising Rs 2,075 crore by allotting equity shares to Oriana Investments on a preferential basis.

  • Wheels India surges as its Q4FY24 net profit rises 78.7% YoY to Rs 38.3 crore, while its revenue increases marginally YoY to Rs 1,274.5 crore. Profit grows due to a fall in inventory costs. The company plans to spend Rs 200 crore on capex in FY25. It appears in a screener for stocks with more than a 20% rise in share price.

  • Rail Vikas Nigam surges as it wins an order worth Rs 148.3 crore from South Eastern Railway to develop an electric traction system for the Kharagpur-Bhadrak section.

  • India’s domestic air traffic grows 2.4% YoY in April to 1.3 crore passengers, according to the data released by DGCA. IndiGo and Air India’s market share rises to 60.6% and 14.2% respectively, in April, while that of Vistara falls to 9.2%.

  • Tata Steel surges to its all-time high of Rs 174.6 per share as it reportedly signs an agreement with National Grid's Electricity System Operator. As per the agreement, National Grid will build a new electrical framework to power Tata Steel's electric arc furnace in Port Talbot by the end of 2027.

  • Trident falls sharply as its net profit plunges 57.1% YoY to Rs 56.6 crore in Q4FY24, due to higher raw materials, employee benefits, and finance costs. However, revenue grows by 7.6% YoY on the back of improvements in the yarn and towel segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with increasing non-core income.

  • NIBE surges as it inks a technology transfer pact with the Defence Ministry to manufacture and sell anti-terrorist vehicles to central and state defence agencies.

  • Himanshu Baid, Managing Director of Poly Medicure, highlights the company’s target to achieve revenue growth of over 22-25% YoY, and margin expansion of 100-150 bps in FY25. He adds that the firm aims to improve growth in renal business by 50-60% YoY.

  • India Cements' Q4FY24 loss narrows 73% YoY to Rs 60.6 crore due to a fall in input cost, power & fuel, and transportation expenses. The company's revenue decreases 13.9% YoY during the quarter. It appears in a screener of stocks with increased shareholding by mutual funds in the past month.

  • Metal stocks like Vedanta, Coal India, Hindalco Industries and Tata Steel rise sharply in trade, helping the broader BSE Metal index to surge to its all-time high of 33,405.8.

  • Indian Railway Finance Corp's board approves fundraising of up to Rs 50,000 crore for FY25 from both domestic and international markets through various methods.

  • Nomura upgrades its rating on Vodafone Idea to ‘Neutral’ and raises the target price to Rs 15. The brokerage has an improved outlook on the company after its fundraise and Q4 results, which were in line with estimates. It notes an improvement in ARPU (average revenue per user) and a moderation in the pace of subscriber loss.

  • Biocon's arm Biocon Biologics gets US FDA approval for Yesafili, an interchangeable biosimilar to Aflibercept, used to treat different types of ophthalmology conditions. Aflibercept has an annual market size of $5.9 billion.

  • Shriram Properties inks a joint development agreement to develop a 4-acre land parcel in Bengaluru. The proposed project will comprise 270 apartments, with an aggregate revenue potential of over Rs 250 crore.

  • IFGL Refractories falls sharply as its net profit plunges 57.4% YoY to Rs 12.5 crore in Q4FY24 due to higher raw materials, employee benefits, and finance costs. Revenue grows 6.7% YoY to Rs 401.2 crore, owing to improvements in the Indian and European markets. It appears in a screener of stocks with declining return on equity (RoE) for the past two years.

  • Aptus Value Housing is falling as 3.6 crore shares (7.2% equity) of the company, amounting to approximately Rs 1,075 crore, change hands in a large deal.

  • Bharat Electronics surges as its Q4FY24 net profit rises 30% YoY to Rs 1,797.1 crore, while its revenue increases by 34.3% YoY. The company's EBITDA margin drops by 156 bps YoY to 26.7% during the quarter. It appears in a screener for stocks with no debt.

  • Patel Engineering rises sharply as its net profit surges by 78% YoY to Rs 140.3 crore in Q4FY24, helped by lower employee benefits expenses, construction and finance costs. Revenue grows by 11.7% YoY to Rs 1,374.3 crore on the back of an improvement in the civil construction segment. It features in a screener of stocks with high analyst ratings with at least 20% upside.

  • Kalpataru Projects International inks three contracts worth Rs 7,550 crore with Aramco for engineering, procurement, and construction of the master gas system network. The project involves laying more than 800 km of lateral gas pipelines.

  • Ujjivan Small Finance Bank's net profit grows 6.5% YoY to Rs 329.6 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue increases by 29.4% YoY due to improvements in the treasury, retail, and wholesale banking segments. The bank's asset quality improves as its gross NPA contracts by 65 bps YoY. It shows up in a screener of stocks with improving revenue for the past eight quarters.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 22,474.75 (-27.3, -0.1%), BSE Sensex was trading at 73,822.85 (-183.1, -0.3%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 21,118.85 (-25.6, -0.1%).

  • Market breadth is in the red. Of the 2,001 stocks traded today, 693 were on the uptrend, and 1,220 went down.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Hindustan Zinc Ltd. (741.30, 19.6%), Balkrishna Industries Ltd. (3,052.70, 9.1%) and Vedanta Ltd. (491.70, 7.2%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Delhivery Ltd. (389.75, -10.4%), PB Fintech Ltd. (1,286.30, -5.5%) and Astral Ltd. (2,078.20, -5.3%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

43 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd. (341.75, 14.0%), SJVN Ltd. (148.15, 10.0%) and Balkrishna Industries Ltd. (3,052.70, 9.1%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Delhivery Ltd. (389.75, -10.4%), Aptus Value Housing Finance India Ltd. (297.65, -5.8%) and City Union Bank Ltd. (145, -5.3%).

Aether Industries Ltd. (838.70, 0.9%) was trading at 14.5 times of weekly average. Star Cement Ltd. (244.75, 8.5%) and Global Health Ltd. (1,335.20, -4.9%) were trading with volumes 13.9 and 13.2 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

63 stocks hit their 52 week highs, while 2 stocks were underachievers and hit their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Adani Power Ltd. (680.05, 7.2%), Ashok Leyland Ltd. (211.35, 0.4%) and Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. (1,218.25, 1.3%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - CCL Products India Ltd. (553.85, -2.6%) and Anupam Rasayan India Ltd. (785.10, 0.1%).

7 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Vinati Organics Ltd. (1,705.90, 2.3%) and JK Lakshmi Cement Ltd. (793.20, 1.9%). 16 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Delhivery Ltd. (389.75, -10.4%) and Aptus Value Housing Finance India Ltd. (297.65, -5.8%).

 
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The Baseline
20 May 2024
Five high-upside stocks from analysts this week - May 20, 2024
By Abhiraj Panchal

Today we take a look at five stock picks from analysts with high upside potential.

1. DLF:

Edelweiss maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this realty developer with a target price of Rs 1,081, indicating a potential upside of 27%. In Q4FY24, the company reported revenue growth of 47% YoY to Rs 2,316.7 crore, with net profit rising 61.5% YoY to Rs 920.7 crore. Analysts Amit Agarwal and Rishith Shah say, “We are upbeat on the company’s growth story given its robust launch pipeline, brand recall, favourable dynamics in its home turf, improving annuity income, and market consolidation.” DLF’s recent luxury projects in North India have sold out within a few days. 

Analysts are optimistic about the company’s steady presales of Rs 14,777 crore, down 2% YoY primarily due to a higher base in the previous year. New launches of around 6 million square feet (msf) constituted 82% of presales, while the remaining 18% came from existing projects. 

Agarwal and Shah are positive about the company’s outlook as the management forecasted a launch pipeline of Rs 36,000 crore for FY25. They also forecast a revenue CAGR of 11% for FY25-26 owing to the launch pipeline of Rs 94,000 crore with an additional land bank of 132 msf, for which development plans are yet to be finalised.

2. Safari Industries (India):

IDBI Capital maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this luggage maker with a target price of Rs 2,535, indicating an upside of 20%. The company’s net profit grew by 13.4% YoY to Rs 43.2 crore in Q4FY24, while its revenue improved by 21.3% YoY to Rs 370.5 crore. 

Analyst Ajit Sahu says, “Safari Industries Q4FY24 sales were in line with our expectations.” He believes that the growth occurred due to improvements in tourism activities. He also notes, “Over the past two years, Safari has gained market share from its peers”. The analyst states that Safari Industries' sales grew by 21% YoY outperforming VIP Industries’ sales growth of 15% YoY in FY24.

Sahu is optimistic about the company as it sets up a greenfield manufacturing unit in Jaipur. He believes that future growth will come from its initiative to sell premium products like Urban Jungle (the premium luggage collection). He applauds the management’s ability to outperform industry sales growth and also expand operating margins to higher levels. He estimates profit and revenue to grow at a 26.5% and 19% CAGR, respectively, over FY25-26.

3. CreditAccess Grameen:

KR Choksey maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this finance company with a target price of Rs 1,850, indicating an upside of 29.9%. In Q4FY24, the company’s net profit grew by 33.9% YoY to Rs 397.1 crore (1.1% above the brokerage’s estimates), while total revenue improved by 36.9% YoY to Rs 1,459.1 crore. Analyst Unnati Jadhav says, “CreditAccess Grameen reported stellar operating performance during the quarter, but saw deterioration in asset quality led by higher slippages.”

The analyst is optimistic about the company's expansion strategy and expects it to be key to business momentum going forward. The company added 194 branches during FY24, bringing its total infrastructure strength to 1,967 branches. The analyst also says that the NBFC succeeded in controlling its borrowing costs through a cost-effective borrowing mix, and expects it to remain stable and bring predictability to its overall margins in FY25.

Jadhav continues to be positive about CreditAccess Grameen due to its leadership, improving geographical footprint, superior return ratios, consistent operating performance, and industry tailwinds.

4. Sansera Engineering:

Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this auto parts and equipment manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,270. This indicates a potential upside of 19.8%. In Q4FY24, the firm reported revenue growth of 19.7% YoY to Rs 745.6 crore, with net profit rising 31.1% YoY to Rs 46.1 crore. 

Analysts Shridhar Kallani and Aditya Welekar note, “For FY24, the share of auto components has reduced to 75%, while non-auto & tech and aerospace segment has increased to 20% and 5%, respectively.”

Kallani and Welekar are upbeat on the company’s capex plan of Rs 400 crore in FY25 and Rs 350 crore in FY26, mainly towards electric vehicle components and non-auto products. They expect the company to post a CAGR of around 20.8% for EBITDA and 29.4% for net profit over FY25-26. They attribute this growth to the sales mix tilting towards non-auto components, growth in the export business, and recovery in its its Sweden operations led by improved operational efficiency.

5. NCC:

ICICI Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this construction and engineering company with a target price of Rs 320. This indicates a potential upside of 15.2%. In Q4FY24, the firm’s net profit increased by 25.3% YoY to Rs 239.2 crore, while revenue grew by 31.1% YoY. 

Analysts Bhupendra Tiwary and Hammaad Ahmed Ulde are optimistic about NCC’s order book. Its order book stands at Rs 57,536 crore, largely driven by Rs 18,439 crore worth of orders secured in FY24, a growth of 37% YoY. The management has guided for an order book inflow of Rs 20,000-22,000 crore, with ordering likely to be impacted owing to elections in the first half. Considering the order book, the analysts expect a revenue CAGR of 15% over FY25-26. With healthy execution, the analysts estimate EBITDA margins at 10% and 10.5% in FY25 and FY26, respectively, and expect a 26% earnings CAGR over FY25-26.

The analysts say, “NCC is a key beneficiary of the tailwinds in the buildings, roads, water, mining and electrical segments. Given strong order book visibility and improving balance sheet strength, it is poised for healthy growth ahead.”

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)