Safari Industries (India) Ltd. share price target

Safari's Q1FY26 performance exceeded our expectations. Sales grew 17% YoY to Rs5.3bn, driven by strong volume growth (up 17% YoY), while realizations remained flat YoY - indicating easing price competition. As a result, gross margin expanded by 128bps YoY to 45.8% but declined 344bps QoQ on higher share of low margin products. EBITDA grew by 20% YoY to Rs793mn, with EBITDA margin expanding by 38bps YoY to 15.0%, supported by higher gross margins despite higher A&P spends (7% vs. 5.5% in Q1FY24). PAT increased by 14% YoY to Rs505mn. We expect revenue/EBITDA/PAT to grow at a CAGR of 14%/26%/29%...

SII IN reported better than expected results with revenue/EBITDA beat of 3.8%/8.3% respectively. After multiple quarters, volume growth was at par with value growth indicating price wars have stabilized. We expect irrational pricing environment to end soon amid change of guard at top-level within peer set. This is expected to bode well for SII IN as price support to e-com channel partners would come down and tangible benefits of margin expansion resulting from improving utilization at Jaipur would be visible. Additional margin kicker...

We cut our EPS estimates by 6%/5% for FY26E/FY27E as we fine tune our topline growth assumptions amid persistent pricing pressure (volume growth of 22% has resulted in value growth of 15%). Safari reported better-thanexpected performance with EBITDA margin of 14.5% (PLe 12.8%) led by improvement in GM amid 1) reduction in RM prices, 2) better product & channel mix, and 3) lower discounts on e-com channel. Progress at the new site in Jaipur...

We recommend BUY with TP of Rs. 1036/share.