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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    04 Jul 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 04, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 04, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Motilal Oswal Financial Services:

    This financial services firm rose over 8% on Thursday after its asset management subsidiary reported that its Assets Under Management (AUM) had surpassed Rs 1.5 lakh crore. This marks a sharp increase from a quarter ago, when it was just above Rs 1.2 lakh crore. Over the past five years, its AUM has increased at a CAGR of 34%.

    For FY25, the company reported an 18.5% increase in revenue, beating Forecaster estimates slightly by 0.7%. Net profit was flat for the year, mainly due to a Rs 743 crore loss in the treasury segment during Q4, which caused a 15% miss in profit estimates.

    Wealth and asset management now contributes over 80% of group revenue, and the remainder comes from the broking and housing finance businesses. Housing finance grew by 13% in FY25, while other verticals saw 30%+ growth. Private Wealth Management remains the most profitable division, contributing more than 40% to operating income.

    Group Managing Director, Navin Agarwal, said, “We believe the Private Wealth Management business will contribute a larger share of profitability for the group in the coming years due to higher growth as we continue to penetrate more customers with differentiated products and services.”

    Agarwal added, “We believe that the Motilal Oswal Group is very well placed to benefit from the financialization theme, which is a long-term mega trend.” He expects this trend to play out over several decades, especially in India, given the low penetration of investment products and services.

    Emkay Global maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a lower target price of Rs 850, due to the treasury impact. Despite this, the brokerage expects revenue to grow at a CAGR of 10% and operating profit at a CAGR of 12% over FY26–28, citing the company’s historical resilience in volatile market conditions.

    2. Torrent Pharmaceuticals:

    This pharma company has risen by 4.5% over the past week after it signed an agreement to buy a controlling stake in JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals (JBCP) at a valuation of Rs 25,600 crore. The acquisition will be followed by a merger of the two entities. Torrent Pharma will acquire a 46.4% stake from US-based private equity firm KKR for Rs 11,900 crore, and will later launch a mandatory open offer to acquire up to 26% from public shareholders.

    JBCP has reported sales and net profit CAGR of 17% and 19%, respectively over FY22–25, reaching Rs 3,900 crore in revenue and Rs 660 crore in profit. While cardiology is the leading therapy area for both JBCP and Torrent, their focus products differ, which could support complementary growth post-acquisition. Torrent’s market share in cardiology after the acquisition is projected to increase by 410 bps to 11.3%. However, analysts expect the contribution of the India business to Torrent’s overall revenue to rise by only 50 bps, to around 57%. In the international market, there is no overlap for the companies in the US business. In Russia, JB’s brands have been growing at a relatively faster pace, and it also has an established presence in South Africa.

    Torrent will get access to JBCP’s international contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) business, a segment where it currently has no presence. JBCP leads globally in the lozenges CDMO segment—an oral treatment used to treat throat irritation, which has been a key driver of its international operations.

    As of FY25, Torrent has an EBITDA margin of 32%, while JB Pharma’s stands at 26%. Commenting on the potential improvement, Aman Mehta, Whole-time Director, said, “The immediate 1–2 years could see gains in the cost side, through procurement savings, operational efficiencies, and elimination of overlaps. Revenue-side benefits like cross-selling and portfolio expansion should be visible in the following years.” He added that margins should improve over the 3–5 year period, with near-term gains largely driven by cost synergies.

    ICICI Securities has a ‘Hold’ rating on Torrent with a target price of Rs 3,500. The brokerage highlights that JB Pharma’s ophthalmology (eye-care) brand could support overall margin expansion post-acquisition. Additionally, the deal may give Torrent an entry into contract manufacturing of lozenges and help strengthen its presence in the US, Russia, and South Africa.

    3. Amber Enterprises India:

    This consumer electronics company rose by 8.3% over the past week as its subsidiary, IL JIN Electronics entered into a definitive agreement to take a majority stake in Power-One Micro Systems, a battery storage and solar inverter manufacturer. The company’s Executive Chairman & CEO, Jasbir Singh, said, “This transaction will provide a foothold for Amber’s Electronic Division into the rapidly growing sector for batteries, EV chargers, UPS and the solar inverter market.

    The company also laid out plans to invest Rs 6,000 crore in an electronics manufacturing plant near Noida International Airport at Jewar. The facility will produce printed circuit boards (PCBs), home appliances, and consumer electronics. Yamuna Expressway Industrial Development Authority (YEIDA) has already issued a Letter of Intent to the firm for 100 acres of land in Noida, near the Yamuna Expressway.

    The company posted a 48.1% increase in revenue for FY25, while its net profit surged by 83.3% due to robust growth in consumer durables & electronics segment. It surpassed the Forecaster operating revenue estimate by 4.4%, but missed the net profit estimate by 6.2% as its railway sub-systems & mobility division saw a decline in revenues as the focus remained on non-AC coaches and due to delay in railway projects across regions. The company appears in a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

    Mr. Singh, speaking on future guidance, said, “We expect the electronics business to grow by 30% in FY26, with segment PBT margins improving by 300 basis points to 9-10%.” The firm plans to invest Rs 3,000 crore in the electronics segment over the next five years. Of this, 65% of the capex is expected to be recovered through the PLI scheme and government subsidies, while the company will bear the remaining 35%.

    Sharekhan has retained a ‘Buy’ rating on Amber Enterprises with a target price of Rs 8,142. The brokerage sees it well positioned to benefit from growing demand in the components ecosystem. It highlights long term growth drivers for the room air conditioner (RAC) industry, including low penetration, rising temperatures, changing lifestyles, and increasing demand from Tier II to Tier IV cities, all of which are expected to boost AC component demand and support Amber’s growth.

    4. Apollo Hospitals Enterprise:

    Thishospital company rose 3.5% on July 1 after announcing thedemerger of its non-hospital businesses into a new company, Apollo Healthtech, which isexpected to list on stock exchanges within 18 to 21 months.

    Thedemerger consolidates Apollo’s existing pharmacy distribution business (offline and online), Keimed (third-party distribution), and telehealth into a single entity. Post-demerger, Apollo Hospitals will operate two separately listed businesses: one focused on healthcare services (hospitals, diagnostics, and primary/specialty care), and the other on omnichannel pharmacy and digital health through Apollo Healthtech.

    In FY25, the businesses proposed for demergergenerated revenue of Rs 16,300 crore andaim to reach Rs 25,000 crore by March 2027, with a 7% EBITDA margin. Growth is expected to come from an expanded digital health offering and wider pharmacy reach.

    Commenting on Apollo Healthtech's outlook, Madhivanan Balakrishnan, CEO of Apollo Health Co,said, “We are looking at a revenue growth of around 22–23% on a YoY basis. We remain committed to achieving a break-even on the digital Apollo 24/7 platform by the end of this financial year.” Sanjeev Gupta, CFO of Apollo Healthadded that Apollo 24/7 posted a loss of Rs 80 crore in the last quarter, which is expected to reduce to zero over the next four quarters. The loss wasdue to the high operating costs associated with scaling its digital healthcare platform.

    Analystsbelieve that the listing of Apollo Healthtech will simplify Apollo’s overall structure and help investors see the value of each business separately. Meanwhile, Apollo Hospitals will focus on core hospital operations as theyplan to invest over Rs 8,000 crore in the next five years to add more than 4,300 beds across India. 

    Apollo Healthtech willpay a royalty to Apollo Hospitals for the ‘Apollo’ brand name. This royalty is likely to be approximately Rs 10 crore annually, with an increase over time.

    Following the announcement, Motilal Oswalreiterated its ‘Buy’ rating with an upgraded target price of Rs 8,720, citing the strategic demerger as a key catalyst. The move unlocks value, enables focused growth, and positions Apollo Healthtech as a leading digital health and pharmacy platform.

    5. Gabriel India:

    This auto parts & equipment manufacturer rose 44.2% over the past week and touched a 52-week high of Rs 1,011.4 on July 2, after its boardannounced a restructuring plan. Gabriel's parent company, the ANAND Group, plans to combine and restructure its businesses to achieve revenues of Rs 50,000 crore by 2030.

    Gabriel India manufactures suspension parts for two-wheelers, passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and railways. Its parent company, ANAND Group, owns two other automobile-related businesses, Anchemco and Asia Investment. 

    Anchemco manufactures vehicle brake fluids, coolants, and diesel exhaust fluids. Asia Investments, along with its joint ventures (JVs), manufactures driveshafts, sealants and sunroofs.

    The merger plans involve the restructuring of these two businesses under one roof. Anchemco will merge with Asia Investments. Post merger, the entire automotive business of Asia Investments, including Anchemco and its joint ventures, will be separated and merged into Gabriel.

    Alongside this merger, Gabriel is diversifying beyond suspension products into new areas, such as solar dampers for the renewable energy sector. Atul Jaggi, Managing Director,said, “We aim to scale new products like solar dampers to Rs 200-300 crore in revenue over the next 2-3 years. We plan to double sunroof production capacity in the second half of FY26 and intend to expand the product portfolio.”

    The company’s net profit rose 14.4% to Rs 211.9 crore inFY25. Revenue grew 8.9% to Rs 3,643.3 crore, driven by higher sales in the two-wheeler segment and the utility vehicles (UVs) segment. Anchemco and its joint ventures generated annual revenue of Rs 4,000 crore in FY26. Post merger, Gabriel's revenue is expected to increase to Rs 8,000 crore.

    Elara Securitiesmaintains its 'Buy' rating with a higher target price of Rs 1,115 per share, citing that the company’s transition from a single-product to a multi-product business is expected to improve margins. The brokerage believes that after the merger, the company will expand into multiple products, segments, and geographies. It projects EPS to grow at a 45% CAGR from FY25-27.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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    The Baseline
    03 Jul 2025
    Is India getting old before getting rich? | Screener: All star stocks with high five year returns

    Is India getting old before getting rich? | Screener: All star stocks with high five year returns

    By Swapnil Karkare

    In Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara (ZNMD), Hrithik Roshan's character dreams of retiring at 40, in arguably Bollywood’s first example of FIRE ambitions: Financially Independent, Retire Early.

    But in Hollywood's The Intern, Robert De Niro plays a 70 year old widower who joins a startup as an intern — not for money, but purpose.

    One kind of hero wants freedom after 40, and the other seeks meaning after 70.

    ZNMD was released in 2011, when India’s fertility rate was 2.5. The Intern came out in the US in 2015, when its fertility rate was 1.8. Today, India’s fertility rate is at 1.9, below replacement and closer to the US. More of our movie viewers are older, with the median age in states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka between 30-35. Rather than focusing on the dreams of the young, there is talk about a Hindi remake of The Intern.

    India has already begun ageing. As fertility rates decline, the share of older people in India's population is rising even as all other groups fall. The share of senior citizens (65+) has gone up from 5% in 2010 to 7% today and will hit 15% by 2050.

    This puts pressure on the working population. They face a rising number of dependents, having to take care of their children as well as their parents. The share of this working population in India will peak in less than a decade, in 2034, at 69%.

    In this week's Analyticks,

    Is India greying early?: A fall in fertility rates is changing India's demographics
    Screener: All Stars: High scorers across key metrics

    Ageing like fine wine..or not?

    Indian society is going through a quiet but significant change. Fewer children are being born, and people are living longer. You can already see the change on both ends of the age spectrum.

    Our child population (ages 0-14) has been shrinking since 2010, and declined by 0.85% in 2o24 alone. The fertility rate, number of babies per woman, in India is now below the replacement rate of 2.1, which means that we are not replacing people who die.

    As a result, over time the share of taxpayers in India's population will fall, while that of beneficiaries – older generations – will rise. This will put more pressure on government budgets and economic growth.

    India has hit lower fertility faster than expected

    India has reached below replacement levels at a relatively low per capita income compared to developed economies, but in line with some emerging Asian countries. Economists have some theories: educated women in conservative Asian societies are more reluctant to have children, and support systems for families in these societies are, unlike in Europe, quite limited.


    The silver hair impact on GDP

    When Indians hear that our population may fall in coming years, the usual response is "Good! The country is too crowded."

    That is true, but the transition to a lower population is economically painful. Ageing economies, for instance, grow more slowly. Even if people delay retirement and work for a few more years, it doesn’t offset the drag on growth. European countries, where average ages are 45+, are expected to see an 8% decline in per capita incomes by 2050, even if current employment rates stay the same.

    India has benefitted from its young population for decades. It has helped increase average incomes by 0.7 percentage points per year between 1997 and 2023, according to McKinsey. But this demographic dividend won’t last - by 2050, this advantage will shrink to just 0.2 percentage points per year, meaning India can no longer rely on population structure alone to drive growth.

    The stock market hit from older people

    Working people save some of their income, and after retirement, they use those savings. Younger people invest in equities, but as the population gets older, they prefer safer investments like bonds. They get rid of their loans and probably don’t need another post-retirement. Thus, overall debt levels go down.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia found that these patterns hold for both developed and emerging economies. As the working population grows, equity markets and banks benefit. But once the 65+ group dominates, bond markets gain and savings drop.

    Then there is the pensions impact. Today, only 12% of India’s population is covered by the formal pension system.  Older states like Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Kerala already spend over 20% of their revenues on pensions. These are the ageing states of India.

    Are we getting old before getting rich?

    Getting older fast is not great news for an emerging economy like India. Like people, economies growing old without enough financial security have a tough time. Unlike rich countries that have ample capital and already built infrastructure, developing countries face multiple challenges: job creation, defence needs, climate adaptation, and ageing. They all need resources.

    In India, over 40% of senior citizens are poor, 78% have no pension cover, and only 18% have health insurance. At this pace, India could have 300 million elderly citizens without any pension support by 2050. McKinsey warns that India has a 33-year window to get rich before it gets old. 

    Governments are adapting. Japan made long-term care a legal right in 2000. Singapore is building elderly-friendly housing with inbuilt medical and social facilities. China is aggressively developing senior-focused products and services, like chewable health foods, comfortable clothing, and targeted entertainment.

    India’s silver economy is still nascent. Older folks contribute about 3% to GDP today, with the potential to add 1.5 percentage points if more seniors rejoin the workforce, according to Rohini Nilekani Philanthropies’ study. 

    India is estimated to have the largest working-age population by 2100, followed by Nigeria, China and the US, despite a huge decline in the absolute number of workers. This means India has more time and headroom to prepare for its silver age. But a higher absolute number of working-age people alone won't guarantee growth unless they are productively employed, healthy, and skilled. The clock is ticking.


    Screener: All Stars: High scorers across key metrics

    All Stars: Top performing stocks with high scores across metrics

    Despite the volatility of 2025, which has been marked with trade tensions and the drums of war, some Indian stocks continued to show financial strength and strong performance across metrics. This screener identifies such all-star  stocks that score high across metrics like the DVM scores, Piotroski score, buy-sell zone, checklist scores, and strengths, weaknesses, opportunities & threats (SWOT).

    These all-star stocks come from the banking, telecom services, healthcare facilities, internet & catalogue retail, and heavy electrical equipment industries. Major stocks that show up in the screener are Schneider Electric Infrastructure, TVS Motor, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, State Bank of India, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, ICICI Bank, and Bharti Airtel. 

    Schneider Electric Infrastructure’s stock has surged 940% over the past five years. This heavy electrical equipment manufacturer has a good Trendlyne durability score of 90, strong technicals and a high Piotroski score of 8. The firm turned profitable in FY22 with a net profit of Rs 27.6 crore. Since then, its net profit has increased to Rs 267.9 crore in FY25, up 55.7%. Its revenue grew 20.1% to Rs 2,661.3 crore in FY25, helping it achieve a five-year CAGR of 13.8%. The company’s focus on fast-growing segments, including developing data centres, electric vehicles (EVs), semiconductors, and services drove its revenue growth, while falling inflation, higher energy demand, and an improved product mix of products with higher margins helped improve profitability. 

    Apollo Hospitals Enterprise also features in the screener after its stock jumped 639.8% over the past five years. This healthcare facilities provider has a good Trendlyne durability score of 80, helped by strong technicals and a healthy Piotroski score of 7. The company’s revenue grew for the past four consecutive years to Rs 19,165.5 crore in FY25, while net profit surged 60.9% YoY to Rs 1,445.9 crore. According to analysts at Geojit BNP Paribas, improvements in the healthcare services, diagnostics & retail health, and offline & online pharmacy segments helped revenue growth. Meanwhile, higher patient occupancy and improved pricing & product mix with higher margins have boosted profits. Its board also approved the demerger of its digital health, pharmacy distribution, and telehealth businesses into a new listed entity, NewCo, on June 30.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    02 Jul 2025

    Chart of the Week: The Cash Kings of FY25

    By Omkar Chitnis

    Global geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns are reminding the corporate world of an important lesson: “Cash is king.”

    The era of low interest rates post the 2008 crisis – when central banks worldwide reduced rates to record lows to stimulate growth – got businesses used to debt, and fuelled startups growing rapidly on borrowed money. But as interest rates climb back up, companies are seeing the benefits of having surplus cash on the balance sheet. 

    There is, of course, a balance between too little cash and too much. Very high cash reserves suggest that investment opportunities are being missed or are not available. Excess undeployed cash is also vulnerable to inflation, which erodes its real value over time.

    In FY25, the cash reserves of Nifty 500 companies grew 17% to Rs 17.5 lakh crore, supported by healthy operating margins alongside modest growth in capital expenditure.

    Among sectors, the IT consulting & software industry led with cash reserves of Rs 1.17 lakh crore, followed closely by the automobile and auto ancillary sector at Rs 1.15 lakh crore. Metals and mining firms collectively held Rs 1.1 lakh crore, and engineering companies had over Rs 73,000 crore.

    Bhavesh Shah, Head of Investment Banking at Equirus, says, “The Covid pandemic triggered a realisation among corporates to maintain higher liquidity for unforeseen challenges. Simultaneously, consumer behaviour, including post-pandemic revenge buying, boosted company performance and added to cash reserves.” 

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyse thestocks with the highest and lowest cash reserves and the reasons for the same.

    Strong financial positions, steady profits and diversified businesses have enabled companies such as Reliance Industries in the oil and gas sector, Tata Motors in automobiles and auto components, Infosys in software and services, and Larsen & Toubro in the cement and construction sector to maintain high cash reserves.

    On the other hand, when it comes to companies with low cash reserves, sectors such as food, beverages, and tobacco, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, and chemicals and petrochemicals feature in the list. Some companies with low cash reserves include Balrampur Chini, Concord Biotech and Clean Science and Technology, mainly due to high spending on expansion and dividend payments.

    Reliance Industries tops cash reserves to fuel expansion and green energy push

    Reliance Industries holds the highest cash reserves among Indian companies. In FY25, it reported Rs 1.06 lakh crore in cash reserves, representing a 45.2% CAGR over the five years. 

    Reliance generates strong cash flows from its retail and telecom businesses, which now contribute more than half of its consolidated EBITDA. Sanjay Mookim, an analyst at JPMorgan, says, “Back in FY17, a staggering 96% of Reliance’s EBITDA came from its core energy operations. Fast forward to FY25, consumer verticals have taken centre stage.”

    For FY26, Reliance plans to invest Rs 75,000 crore through internal accruals and external borrowings for its new energy business, including the development of a 20 gigawatt (GW) solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing plant, expansion of retail stores, and a petrochemical expansion. 

    Auto and IT strengthen their cash reserves to accelerate EV and AI investments

    The growing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and rising demand for artificial intelligence (AI) are prompting automobile and software companies to strengthen their cash reserves to fund shifting market needs. 

    Tata Motors holds the highest cash reserves in the automobile and auto components sector at Rs 40,834 crore, driven by a profit CAGR of 239% over the past two years. In FY25, Tata Motors repaid its Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) debt, earned higher earnings from increased sales of premium models, and benefited from better pricing. The company earns 70% of its revenue from the JLR business.

    Despite its strong financial position, Tata Motors’ sales declined in recent months due to weak demand in both passenger and commercial vehicles, increased competition, macro headwinds, and the expiration of government subsidies such as the FAME scheme.

    For FY26, Tata Motors plans to invest £3.8 billion (Rs 40,000 crore) in JLR’s electric vehicle manufacturing facilities in the United Kingdom (UK). In India, the company plans to invest Rs 33,000-35,000 crore by FY30, primarily through internal accruals, to launch new electric vehicle models and upgrade its passenger vehicle manufacturing facilities.

    Ashok Leyland holds cash reserves of Rs 7,263.4 crore as of FY25. The company transitioned to a net cash surplus of Rs 4,242 crore from a net debt of Rs 89 crore in FY24, helped by improved margins resulting from lower raw material costs, a more favourable product mix, and higher sales.

    K.M. Balaji, CFO, says, “In FY26, we plan to invest Rs 1,000 crore in product development for switch mobility (EV division) and expansion of Hinduja Leyland Finance, using internal accruals.”

    Infosys leads the software and services sector with cash reserves of Rs 24,455 crore, supported by higher operating cash flow and better working capital management.

    It consistently returned cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, raising its dividends at a 16% CAGR over five years to Rs 20,289 crore in FY25.

    HCL Technologies holds Rs 21,289 crore in cash reserves in FY25, supported by strong operating cash flows of Rs 22,261 crore and lower acquisition spending of Rs 2,032 crore. New deals in AI and engineering research and development (R&D) services have boosted revenue growth, and high-margin businesses, such as the software segment, have helped the company grow its cash reserves.

    C. Vijayakumar, CEO, says, “In FY26 and beyond, cash reserves will fund AI, generative AI, and acquisitions to strengthen market presence.” He also highlights the Rs 77,000 crore order pipeline for FY25 and steady cash reserves that support the company’s FY26 revenue growth target of 2% to 5%.

    Cyclical sectors maintain high cash reserves to navigate market volatility

    Cyclical sectors including cement and construction, utilities, and metals and mining, are vulnerable to market volatility, compelling companies to maintain substantial cash reserves as a cushion.

    Engineering giant Larsen & Toubro (L&T), which operates in the cement and construction sector, had cash reserves of Rs 22,965 crore at the end of FY25, a 49.5% increase from the previous year. 

    L&T’s net profit rose 15.1% to Rs 15,037 crore in FY25, on the back of a 15.3% increase in revenue, which reached Rs 2.5 lakh crore. The company reported a strong order book of Rs 5.7 lakh crore. 

    R. Shankar Raman, CFO, says, “We expect order inflows and revenues to grow by 10% and 15%, respectively, in FY26. We aim for margins of 8.3% in the projects and manufacturing portfolio and plan to build three semiconductor fabrication facilities in India over the next five to ten years, with potential investments of over Rs 1 lakh crore.”

    Grasim Industries, the flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group, held cash reserves of Rs 7,905 crore as of FY25, a 70% increase from the previous year. Strong revenue and dividend inflows from its core businesses—cement (UltraTech Cement), chemicals, and financial services (Aditya Birla Capital)—drove this growth.

    In utilities, Tata Power leads with cash reserves of Rs 11,751 crore, supported by higher revenue from improved billing and collections from distribution companies, lower finance costs, and reduced capital expenditure in FY25.

    CEO Praveer Sinha notes, “For FY26, we have planned an investment of Rs 25,000 crore, with 50% allocated to renewables, 20% to power generation, and 30% to transmission and distribution, funded through internal accruals and debt.”

    In the metals and mining sector, Coal India holds cash reserves of Rs 34,215 crore in FY25, helped by higher coal production, strong demand, and increased e-auction premiums. 

    Pharma, food, and beverage sectors face a cash crunch amid huge investments

    Large investments have left stocks in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, as well as in food, beverages, and tobacco, with the lowest cash reserves in FY25.

    Concord Biotech holds the lowest cash reserves in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, with Rs 1.2 crore as of FY25. Its stock has risen 17.08% over the past year. The company invested Rs 160 crore to upgrade its manufacturing facilities, bringing down its cash reserves from Rs 47 crore in the previous year.

    Balrampur Chini holds the lowest cash reserves in thefood, beverages, and tobacco sector, at Rs 3.4 crore in FY25, following an investment of Rs 880.4 crore in the Polylactic Acid (PLA)project. It funded the project through internal accruals and debt, which reduced its reserves.

    Godfrey Phillips' cash reserves declined to Rs 30.3 crore in FY25 due to higher spending on fixed assets and a 43.7% dividend payout.

    BEML, a manufacturer of heavy-duty trucks and trailers, held Rs 5 crore in cash reserves in FY25, down from Rs 39.3 crore in FY23. This was due to increased spending on fixed assets and higher working capital needs. Despite lower cash flow, BEML paid Rs 85 crore in dividends in FY25, further decreasing its cash reserves.

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    The Baseline
    01 Jul 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - July 01, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - July 01, 2025

    By Omkar Chitnis

    1. Federal Bank:

    Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 250, a 14.3% upside. Federal Bank is focusing on strengthening its deposit base by boosting growth in current account (CA) deposits. Overall deposit growth was moderate at 12% in FY25, led by a 15.6% increase in current and savings account (CASA) deposits. However, the CASA ratio remained modest at around 30.2%.

    Analysts Nitin Aggarwal, Dixit Sankharva, and Disha Singhal expect deposit growth to pick up pace, projecting a CAGR of 15.1% over FY26–28. A push to grow CA deposits and a stronger non-resident (NR) customer base will be key here. They estimate that the CASA ratio will improve to 34–35% by FY28.

    The bank's asset quality remains strong, with gross non-performing assets (GNPA) at 1.8% and net NPA at 0.4% in FY25, along with a healthy provision coverage ratio (PCR) of over 75%. While Federal Bank remains cautious on unsecured lending, it may gradually increase exposure as the environment improves. Analysts estimate the bank will achieve around 17% CAGR in loans over FY26–28.

    The health of a bank has historically depended on management keeping a steady head during boom times, and limiting over-lending and unsecured lending. In this vein, Aggarwal, Sankharva, and Singhal note that the new CEO KVS Manian “is focusing on sustainable, returns-driven growth”. They expect return on assets and return on equity to improve by FY28, supported by better margins and a stronger asset mix. However, they add, “near-term net interest margins (NIMs) may face pressure from high funding costs.”

    2. Metro Brands:

    Emkay reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this footwear seller with a target price of Rs 1,400, a 23.2% upside. Metro is strategically filling product gaps in its portfolio and continues to be a preferred platform for international brands entering India. The company has been appointed as the exclusive retail and digital partner for Clarks in India and neighbouring countries—Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Maldives, and Sri Lanka.

    Clarks is known for its comfort-focused premium footwear, with an average selling price of Rs 3,000–7,000. Metro will manage Clarks' e-commerce channels in India, including its website.

    Kaushal Paresh, CFO, said during the Q4 results, “E-commerce is growing faster than our overall business. Going forward, the focus will shift to profitability while also exploring opportunities in quick commerce. We will continue to spend 3 to 4% of revenue on advertising to promote new launches and boost brand awareness.”

    Metro has declined by 6.6% over the past six months. Analysts Devanshu Bansal and Mohit Dodeja highlight that the stock has delivered a 15% revenue CAGR over the last decade and has the potential to perform even better in the coming years.

    3. Radico Khaitan:

    Sharekhan initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this beverage company with a target price of Rs 3,090, a 20.2% upside. In FY25, the company’s operating profit margin rose by 160 basis points to 13.9%, driven by higher sales of premium products and cost optimisation in its production and packaging verticals.

    Since April 2022, the company has incurred a capex of Rs 950 crore (funded partly by debt of Rs 631 crore), for the expansion of its Rampur and Sitapur facilities. Management plans to reduce debt by 35–40% in FY26 and aims to become debt-free by FY27. Analysts believe this will improve earnings growth and expect the return on equity to rise to 18% by FY27 from the current 13%.

    Over FY21–25, the company’s revenue and volume from the prestige & above (P&A) segment grew at a CAGR of 25% and 19%, respectively, thanks to strong performance in its core brands. Analysts expect a double-digit growth momentum in the P&A segment, with a CAGR volume growth of 52% by FY27 from new launches in premium and luxury brands and expansion in both domestic and international markets.

    Management aims to improve profit margins by approximately 100 basis points each year, reaching a target of around 17–19% in three years. Analysts believe the UK-India free trade agreement (FTA) will reduce import duties and boost the company’s profitability on UK exports. They estimate revenue and net profit to grow by 18% and 41%, respectively, over FY26–27.

    4. Escorts Kubota:

    Geojit BNP Paribas initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this commercial vehicle manufacturer with a target price of Rs 3,801, a 14.5% upside. In FY25, revenue rose 15.7% to Rs 10,705.1 crore, while net profit grew 20.5% to Rs 1,264.9 crore, driven by an increase in tractor sales, lower commodity costs and price realisation.

    Analyst Saji John writes that Escorts Kubota is the third-largest agricultural tractor manufacturer in India with an 11.1% market share. He expects its volume growth to improve in FY26 due to strong agricultural output and the government’s infrastructure projects, which will support sales of construction equipment.

    The company has planned a capital expenditure of Rs 350–400 crore for FY26 to expand its manufacturing facility and develop new products. Management plans to launch the new Powertrac paddy series of tractors in the 52–60 horsepower (HP) range for southern markets in Q3 FY26. Additionally, it aims to introduce mid-segment tractors in the 40–45 HP range in Q2 FY26 to fill product gaps.

    The analyst projects mid-single-digit growth for the domestic tractor segment in FY26, driven by new product launches in both the construction equipment and tractor segments. They expect exports to grow by 20–25% in FY26 and estimate revenue and net profit will rise by 10.5% and 16%, respectively, over FY26–27.

    5. GAIL (India):

    ICICI Securities reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this utility company, with a target price of Rs 245, a 29.2% upside. In FY25, revenue rose 6.6%, while net profit grew 25.7% to Rs 12,499.8 crore, driven by higher gas and polymer production volumes.

    The management aims to achieve a profit of Rs 4,000–4,500 crore from the gas business in FY26, down from Rs 4,833 crore in FY25. This is due to the shutdown of its Kanpur fertiliser plant and the delay in commissioning the Durgapur-Haldia and Dhamra-Haldia pipelines. However, the management plans to sell 105 million standard cubic meters per day (mmscmd) of gas in FY26, up from 101 mmscmd in FY25, through new domestic and international contracts.

    The company plans to invest Rs 10,700 crore in FY26 to expand its petrochemical facility at Usar and the Dabhol Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal. Analysts Probal Sen and Hardik Solanki expect the company to boost its revenue by raising gas tariffs by 15–20% in the first half of FY26.

    Analysts see strong business prospects for GAIL by FY27 and FY28, driven by a recovery in its petrochemicals segment and the commissioning of new LNG plants, which will boost demand for gas transportation and trading. They forecast net profit growth of 10% over FY26–28.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    27 Jun 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - June 27, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - June 27, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Zee Entertainment:

    This broadcasting & cable TV company has risen over 13% in the past week after sharing a positive business outlook. Zee announced plans to achieve breakeven in its digital platform, Zee5, which reported an EBITDA loss of Rs 548 crore in FY25. 

    The company says that it is moving away from a ‘growth-at-any-cost’ strategy to a more focused and disciplined approach. To support this turnaround, it aims to cut costs, improve content monetization, and boost user engagement. Zee5 has been weighing down the company’s overall performance in recent years, and a turnaround is likely to be challenging.

    Zee aims to improve its EBITDA margin to 18–20% in FY26, up from 14.4% in FY25. The firm is also targeting a rise in TV viewership share to 17.5%, compared to 16.8% last year. The stock has declined 7% over the past year.

    On June 16, the company’s board approved issuing up to 17 crore fully convertible warrants to promoter group entities at Rs 132 per warrant, around 2.6% above SEBI’s floor price. This move will bring in about Rs 2,240 crore in capital and increase promoter shareholding from around 4% to over 18%.

    Analysts believe the promoters are funding the warrant purchase using money recovered from Essel Group dues — about Rs 600 crore has been recovered recently, with a potential recovery of up to Rs 1,800 crore over the next 12–18 months. The Essel Group (Zee’s promoter) had borrowed heavily and pledged Zee shares to repay other debts. While Zee hasn’t specified how the fresh funds will be used, analysts see the move as sentimentally positive.

    In FY25, the company’s revenue declined by 4%, largely due to a 11% drop in domestic advertising revenue, impacted by a weak macro environment and a packed sports calendar. Mukund Galgali, Deputy CEO and CFO, said, “We are targeting improvement in ad revenue through re-entry into free-to-air channels (free TV channels), launch of new genres such as mini-series, and a focus on regional content. We are hopeful of an 8–10% increase in advertising revenue during FY26.”

    Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock, as the company hasn’t clarified how the newly raised funds will be used, and a market purchase of shares may have been a better option. The brokerage also believes that a steady recovery in advertising revenue is crucial for Zee to achieve its targeted 8–10% revenue CAGR with its current portfolio.

    2. KPIT Technologies:

    This IT consulting & software company fell over 6% on June 24 after it released a mid-quarter update about the uncertainty surrounding its business. Rising geopolitical concerns and confusion around US’ auto tariffs have spooked clients across geographies. Management highlights that even though the order pipeline remains strong, conversions are much slower. In the medium term, management expects offshoring to grow further, with auto OEMs hoping to lower overall costs as the dust surrounding tariffs settles.

    In FY25, the company reported revenue growth of 22% and net profit growth of 41%. Revenue came in line with estimates, while net profit was 6% ahead of estimates. Forecaster projects 10% YoY revenue growth in Q1 FY26; however, expects net profit to be flat YoY. The acquisition of Caresoft’s Global Engineering Solutions business is expected to close by the end of Q1, which is expected to boost consolidated revenue by 4% starting Q2.

    The company gets 50% of its revenue from the UK and Europe, 30% from the Americas region, and the remaining 17% from the rest of the world. KPIT in its latest update, notes that Europe is looking positive while the US and Asia are somewhat uncertain. This is a stark contrast to Q4, where revenue from Asia grew by 73% and the US grew by 4% YoY, while declining by 6% YoY in Europe.

    Co-founder and Chairman Ravi Pandit, said, “The deal closures have been going up consistently – from $202 million in Q1 to $280 million in Q4, while revenues haven’t yet fully reflected this,” noting that the pipeline is strong. He acknowledged that clients have turned cautious following Trump’s recent auto tariffs, but expressed confidence that trade agreements will likely be resolved within the next three to four months.

    Geojit maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a lower target price of Rs 1,456 per share. Despite investment in technology and salary hikes, analysts at Geojit expect margins to stabilise at 20-21% for FY26. The brokerage highlights that delays in the integration and ramp-up of large-scale projects due to global trade tensions could impact revenue, affecting short-term financial performance and growth projections.

    3. Grasim Industries:

    This cement & cement products company touched a 52-week high on 27th June as its paints subsidiary, Birla Opus Paints started operations of its resin manufacturing plant in Mahad (Maharashtra) this week. This plant has an installed capacity of 22 million litres per annum (MLPA), with which Grasim expects to meet its resin needs for paint manufacturing in-house.

    Since entering the decorative paints market in 2021 under the Birla Opus brand, Grasim Industries has been a disruptor, capturing over 10% revenue share in the organized paints sector. Deep discounts, strategic hires, and well-placed manufacturing units have helped its market cap jump 84% in four years, while rivals like Asian Paints, Berger, and Kansai Nerolac saw a 23% decline.

    The company posted a 13.4% increase in revenue for FY25, but net profit fell 34.2% due to higher costs of key raw materials, particularly cellulosic fibre used in textiles and packaging. It marginally surpassed the Forecaster operating revenue estimate by 1.1% led by a positive growth in the cement and paint businesses. The company appears in a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

    Himanshu Kapania, MD & Business Head of Birla Opus, said, “ We have achieved the fastest capacity ramp-up in the world, with 5 out of 6 plants commercialized by March 2025, adding 1,096 MLPA in FY25, a 21% share of the organized decorative paints capacity. Our final plant in Kharagpur is set to be launched in H1FY26, which will raise our total capacity to 1,332 MLPA. With the launch of the Kharagpur plant, Birla Opus will achieve a 24% capacity share in the sector, paving the way to scale up from our current high single-digit revenue market share to one that better reflects our capacity leadership.”

    Geojit BNP Paribas has retained a ‘Buy’ rating on Grasim Industries with a higher target price of Rs 3,033. The brokerage believes Grasim’s diverse portfolio positions it to tap into emerging growth opportunities. It expects strong growth in the cement segment, driven by government infrastructure spending and rural demand. In paints, the company is likely to gain ground in the premium segment through new plant launches and high capacity utilisation at Birla Opus.

    4. IndiaMART InterMESH:

    Thisretail company rose 6% on July 25 after Nuvama Institutional Equitiesupgraded it to a 'Buy' rating from 'Reduce', with a target of Rs 3,800 per share. The brokerage expects the company to enter a new demand cycle in Q2 and Q3 of FY26, driven by increased subscriber additions, an expansion of the in-house sales team, and higher marketing expenditures.

    IndiaMART operates a business-to-business (B2B) online marketplace that connects buyers with suppliers. The company controls 60% of the market. Most of its revenue comes from paid subscriptions available to the suppliers listed on the platform. These subscription plans include Platinum and Gold plans, which contribute 75% of total revenue, while the entry-level Silver plan accounts for the remaining 25%.

    The brokerage highlights that the company has improved the platform segment and expanded its in-house sales team to reduce churn in the Silver segment. Indiamart projects revenue to grow at an 18% CAGR over FY26–28.

    Average revenue per user (ARPU) improved by 11% to Rs 61,000 in FY25, driven by a price hike in gold and platinum subscription plans. Dinesh Agarwal, CEO,said, “For FY26, we aim to maintain ARPU growth of 9–10% by addressing churn and improving product-market fit.”

    The silver subscription segment had a monthly customer churn rate of over 7% in Q4 FY25. Agarwalsaid, “We have achieved a 66% reduction in supplier cancellations in the silver segment, and we aim to reach 80% by the end of Q2 FY26. By improving lead quality and user experience, we expect to retain more silver segment suppliers, boost subscriber growth, and drive higher revenue.”

    The company’s net profitrose 64.9% to Rs 550.7 crore in FY25, beatingForecaster estimates by 15%, driven by higher other income and lower marketing and sales expenses. Revenue grew 16% to Rs 1,388.3 crore, driven by improved realisation from suppliers and a broader customer base.

    In FY25, the company’s EBITDA margin stood at 38%. Jitin Diwan, CFO,said, “Margins will likely normalise to 33%–35% from the current 38%–40% once customer churn in the silver segment reduces, and we plan to increase advertising spend to Rs 50–100 crore annually, which could reduce margins by up to 500 basis points.”

    5. NLC India:

    Thismining and power company rose 2.3% on June 23 after receiving anorder from Tamil Nadu Green Energy Corp. The order is for the development of three Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) projects, with a combined capacity of 250 MW/500 MWh, located at Ottapidaram, Annupankulam, and Kayathar in Tamil Nadu.

    In FY25, the company beat its revenue and net profitForecaster estimates. Its revenuerose 17.6% to Rs 15,280.7 crore and its net profit grew 41.4% to Rs 2,621.4 crore. Strong coal and lignite productiondrove this growth. 

    The commissioning of a new unit at the Ghatampur thermal plant in Q4 contributed over Rs 700 crore in revenue.Favourable tarifforders also added around Rs 600 crore to net profit, as NLC was able to recover pending dues and interest from state power distribution companies.

    Commenting on future plans, Director (Finance) Prasanna Kumar Acharya,said “We want to have a lignite mining capacity of 104.4 million tonnes, a thermal power generation capacity of 10,020 MW and renewable energy (RE) capacity of 10,110 MW by 2030, making the RE capacity more than conventional capacity” 

    The company hasguided a capex of Rs 1,16,880 crore for this expansion by FY30. Acharya mentions that this expansioncould more than double NLC India’s revenue to Rs 37,000 crore and nearly double its net profit to Rs 5,300 crore by FY30, implying a CAGR of 19% and 14%, respectively.

    However, NLC India may face somechallenges. Land acquisition is a major issue, especially at Neyveli, where lignite output is expected to be only 3 million tonnes in FY26 against a capacity of 7 million tonnes. Power plants are often directed by state load dispatch centres to reduce their generation, especially during the daytime when solar generation is high, which affects their revenue. The Ghatampur unit,despite generating revenue, reported losses as it could not run at full capacity. Projects like the Pachwara coal block and the lignite-to-ethanol plant are also delayed because of pending approvals and re-tendering.

    Axis Direct hasmaintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, citing strong growth visibility from capacity expansions across thermal, mining, and renewable energy. It also highlighted the company’s plans to list its green energy business, NLC India Renewables, by Q2FY27, to fund its renewable energy expansion.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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    The Baseline
    26 Jun 2025
    Smallcaps are back on the radar, with promising growth | Screener: Analyst favourites among smallcaps

    Smallcaps are back on the radar, with promising growth | Screener: Analyst favourites among smallcaps

    By Swapnil Karkare

    India’s small caps are once again in the news – this time, not for higher volatility or FII sell-offs. Analysts and investors alike are increasingly upbeat about this space.

    “We believe that over the long term, in a growth economy like India, small-cap stocks will outperform large caps,” Venugopal Manghat of HSBC Mutual Fund says. His optimism stems from a combo of tailwinds: low inflation, falling interest rates, rising liquidity, and strong support in manufacturing, infrastructure, and financial growth.

    Market experts like Shankar Sharma of GQuant Investech call India 'a fundamentally small-cap market', while Gautam Shah, Founder, Goldilocks Research, takes a bolder stance. He suggests ignoring the Sensex and Nifty and focusing on the broader market that includes smallcaps.

    Smallcap stocks have seen a remarkable expansion in market value, jumping from Rs. 17 lakh crore in 2017 to Rs. 92 lakh crore by the end of 2024, according to Bajaj Finserv AMC. That’s a nearly 5x jump.

    In fact, what qualifies as “small” has also changed dramatically. Back in 2019, the large-cap threshold was Rs. 26,000 crore. Today, it’s Rs. 1 lakh crore. Small-caps jumped from just Rs. 2,000 crore to Rs. 11,000 crore (the BSE smallcap index has an even higher threshold, with the largest stock, Hitachi Energy, at Rs. 80,000+ crore).

    So, while the whole market cap ladder has moved up, smallcaps have climbed the fastest. 

    A screen shot of a phone

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

    In this week's Analyticks,

    A smallcap boom: Small, rising players are back in the news

    Screener: Favourite smallcap stocks among analysts, where consensus is 'Strong Buy'

    The smallcap space is riding on high enthusiasm

    Varun Goel of Mirae Asset Investment Managers believes that small caps are now one of the best long-term bets. These companies are set to benefit from the revival in private capex, cleaner balance sheets, and a steady pickup in consumption as incomes rise. 

    Analysts seem to support this view. Among the top 250 small-cap stocks, 117 have strong analyst coverage (five or more forecasts) in Trendlyne’s Forecaster tool. Most of these companies are expected to deliver double-digit growth in both revenue and earnings over the next year.

    On the revenue side, Utilities, Metals & Mining, Consumer Durables and NBFCs lead the pack. For earnings, the highest forecasted growth is seen in Consumer Discretionary, Transport & Logistics, Metals & Mining, Chemicals, and Auto. These sectors are closely tied to India’s infrastructure and consumption cycles.

    Optimism is backed by results

    A growing economy, along with the recent market correction and lower risk premiums, have encouraged investors to favour smaller, domestically-focused companies that are likely to benefit more from India’s consumption and capex revival. But the story does not stop here. 

    For the second consecutive month, small-caps are beating their largecap peers in earnings growth. In May, earnings per share for the Nifty Small Cap 250 Index rose by 2.3% MoM against a flat line for the Nifty 50 Index. And smallcaps rose 9.6%, higher than the Nifty 50’s 1.7% — a sign that investor confidence is returning.




    Mutual fund investors are favouring smallcaps

    Sometimes the best way to gauge market sentiment is to follow where institutional money is flowing. The mutual fund data reveals a pattern that's been building steadily over the past year - investors have steadily increased their allocation to smallcap funds. 

    From June 2024 to May 2025, small-cap schemes saw Rs. 43,954 crore in net inflows, followed closely by midcap at Rs. 43,133 crore and much higher than largecaps at Rs. 26,389 crore. This does not include multicap or flexicap schemes. Starting this year, inflows in smallcap schemes have beaten midcaps by 15% and large caps by 78% on average. 

    “The sharp decline in largecaps points to a shift among investors toward higher-growth, though riskier, segments like mid and small caps. It also reflects some degree of profit booking, as large-cap indices had already seen a considerable run-up in the months prior”, explains Himanshu Srivastava of Morningstar Investment Research India.


    It can get nail-biting: uncertainty and smallcaps go together

    It's important to highlight that smallcaps are often the first to react when sentiment turns sour — and not in a good way. Downgrades and drawdowns are more common here due to their thinner margins, lower liquidity, and greater earnings volatility. 

    What complicates matters more is that many small-caps don’t enjoy the luxury of close institutional tracking. Even a minor change in outlook or performance can lead to sudden re-ratings, both upward and downward.

    In the recent earnings season, 31% of small-cap companies missed earnings expectations compared to 17% of large-cap companies, according to JM Financial. Thus, we need to be cautious while selecting smallcaps to invest in.

    Smallcaps defy the stereotype: most are healthy

    But despite widespread concerns about quality and valuations in the smallcap space, a deeper analysis reveals that this is a surprisingly healthy group. 

    Out of 250 companies, 150 have a ‘Good’ durability score (above 55). That’s 60% of the smallcap index. It shows that a majority of small-cap companies have solid and consistent fundamentals. This finding aligns perfectly with Bajaj AMC's research, which found that 74% of the top 250 small-cap companies reported double-digit return on capital employed (ROCE).

    Only 10 companies scored ‘Bad’ on durability (less than 35), which is a relatively small number. One-fourth have a valuation score of less than 30, while almost 60% are fairly priced.

    Momentum is even more skewed. 188 companies (two-thirds) fall in the ‘Mid’ category, suggesting neutral or unremarkable price action. Only 19 are in the Good momentum category, while 43 are in Bad, reflecting recent volatility and cooling off after earlier rallies.


    Who are the standouts in this space?

    As always in small-cap investing, selectivity matters more than broad-based exposure. We analysed small-cap companies based on Trendlyne’s Durability and Momentum scores that are seen positively by market analysts.

    Companies with a good durability (55+) and momentum (60+) scores and a high operating margin (15% and above) included:  MCX, Narayana Hrudayalaya, KFIN Technologies, Karur Vysya Bank, Deepak Fertilisers, and Intellect Design Arena. These stocks are not exceptionally overvalued.


    MCX

    New products like electricity derivatives, rising retail interest in options, and volatility in key commodities are driving MCX’s stock prices. Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments, sees growth potential in the stock, though at a more measured pace than before.

    Narayana Hrudayalaya

    Despite recent rallies, the healthcare major remains attractively valued compared to peers. Its PE Ratio stands at 51x/43x on TTM/Forward basis vs. its peers: Max Healthcare (108x/62x), Apollo Hospitals (70x/53x), Fortis (74x/56x) and KIMS (65x/56x).  

    KFIN Technologies

    Strong revenue growth, expanding EBITDA margins, and accelerated momentum in the company’s international operations has turned Jefferies bullish on this stock. The brokerage justifies its premium valuation based on consistent execution, expanding addressable market, and a high-margin, tech-driven business model. Its ROCE and ROE have consistently remained above 20% for the last four years. 

    Karur Vysya Bank 

    Emkay is optimisticabout the bank’s future performance, backed by strong RoA, asset quality, capital/provision buffers, and stable management. It boasts one of the lowest NPAs among small & mid-sized private banks, with NNPA at just 0.2%. It also has one of the lowest borrowing costs among its peers at 5.8%.

    Deepak Fertilisers

    Deepak's Q4FY25 net profit rose 23% on strong crop nutrition products demand. Unlike agrochemical firms facing demand volatility in both domestic and export markets, fertilisers are showing resilience in domestic demand. The management is doubling down on its speciality product portfolio and capacity expansion, while an above-normal monsoon is expected to improve its market share.

    Intellect Design Arena

    Intellect Design management projects 15% revenue growth in FY26, driven by its new AI platform and banking solutions. The Chairman has set an ambitious target of Rs. 5,000 crore in AI revenues over five years, from the current total revenue of just over Rs. 2,500 crore in FY25. Of course, ambitions are so far, just ambitions. But it's worth keeping an eye out.


    Screener: Smallcap Favourites: Smallcap stocks with rising momentum, where Forecaster consensus is 'Strong Buy'

    Birla Corp, JB Chemicals have Strong Buy consensus from Forecaster

    Wars and tariffs have made high volatility the defining trend of 2025, and  smallcap stocks have borne the brunt. The BSE Smallcap index fell 3.3% over the past six months. In this environment, there are outperformers and laggards, so we look at smallcap stocks with positive analyst consensus. This screener shows stocks from the Smallcap index with rising Trendlyne momentum scores, where Forecaster consensus recommendation is 'Strong Buy'.

    The screener consists of stocks from the pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals, iron & steel products, capital markets, and cement & cement products industries. Major stocks in the screener are DCB Bank, Birla Corp, JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals, Dhanuka Agritech, Balrampur Chini Mills, Nuvama Wealth Management, RR Kabel, and VRL Logistics.

    Birla Corp has a Forecaster consensus of ‘Strong Buy’ with its Trendlyne momentum score growing to 57.1 over the past month. Analysts at Motilal Oswal are confident on this cement & cement products company on the back of strong growth in its Mukutban plant, an increase in realisation, and capacity expansion set to be commissioned in FY28-29. However, analysts expect a near-term volume moderation due to capacity constraints and peak capacity utilisation.

    JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals also features in the screener with a ‘Strong Buy’ consensus from Forecaster. This pharmaceuticals company’s Trendlyne momentum score increased to 53.2 over the past month. Analysts at Prabhudas Lilladher expect its growth to continue, led by the geographical expansion of legacy brands, improvement in the medical representative (MR) segment productivity, scale-up in acquired brands, new launches, and scaling up of contract manufacturing business.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    26 Jun 2025

    Chart of the Week: Rising demand and capacity expansion to power earnings and revenue growth for Q1FY26

    By Omkar Chitnis

    The Indian market has been navigating unpredictable times since the start of the financial year in March. The chaos started early, with Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2 and continuing through the India-Pakistan and Iran-Israel conflicts. Every time things seem to settle, a new twist appears. Despite the uncertainty and the feeling that we are stuck inside a bad thriller movie, the Nifty 50 is up 7.2%since the beginning of the financial year.

    Companies ended FY25 on a strong note, with Nifty 500 firms posting better-than-expected returns in Q4. The momentum and strong FY26 guidance have kept investors focused on earnings as the Q1FY26 results draw near.

    Commenting on the outlook, Nilesh Shah, Managing Director at Kotak Mahindra AMC, said, “We expect earnings to improve gradually over the next few quarters for corporate India. Rural demand is recovering, interest rates have come down, and liquidity has improved. We expect Nifty earnings to grow 11–13% in FY26.”

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyse the top 20 stocks with the highest earnings per share (EPS) and revenue growth projections for Q1FY26.

    Laurus Labs and Gujarat Fluorochemicals are among the companies expected to post strong EPS growth in the upcoming quarter results, according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster. Favourable product mix and improved operating margins are projected to lift profitability.

    Kaynes Technology, Bharat Dynamics, and C.E. Info Systems are gearing up to deliver strong topline growth through capacity expansion and the execution of government contracts.

    Inox Wind, FSN E-Commerce Ventures, Sobha, and Coforge aim to drive EPS and revenue growth by scaling up new operations amid rising demand.

    Expansion and cost control to lift Q1 net profit

    Trendlyne’s Forecaster highlights stocks expected to post the highest EPS growth in Q1FY26 across sectors such as hotels, restaurants & tourism, chemicals,pharmaceuticals & biotechnology, andFMCG.

    Rising rural demand, new product launches, income tax relief, and lower food inflation drive the growth. 

    Analysts expect a demand uptick for companies such asWestlife Foodworld,Gujarat Fluorochemicals,Titan Company, andJubilant Foodworks.

    Pharmaceuticals company Laurus Labs has gained 56% in the past year, driven by strong order inflow in its contract development and manufacturing organisation (CDMO) business and improved capacity utilisation. These factors helped boost the EBITDA margin by four percentage points to 19.8% in FY25. 

    For Q1FY26, Trendlyne Forecaster estimates Laurus Labs to post the highest EPS growth among Nifty 500 peers at 782.6% YoY and 24.5% revenue growth. This sharp increase comes as the company reported a steep 50% drop in net profit in Q1FY25 due to weak active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) demand and margin pressure, making the Q1FY26 profit growth appear much higher in percentage terms.

    McDonald’s restaurant operator Westlife Foodworld expects a dramatic 614% YoY EPS growth in Q1FY26 and revenue growth of 10.8% due to higher footfall and stabilised commodity prices driving a recovery in same-store sales. In contrast, in Q1FY25, net profit fell 88% YoY to 3.3 crore, due to higher store expansion expenses and weak discretionary spending.

    The company added 81 stores over the last two years, expanding from 357 outlets in FY23 to 438 in FY25. It aims to cross 630 stores by the end of FY27.

    Its competitor, Jubilant FoodWorks, added 325 stores across Domino’s Pizza, Dunkin’ Donuts, and Popeyes brands in FY25, taking the total store count to 3,316. Trendlyne Forecaster estimates EPS growth of 110% YoY and revenue growth of 12.6% in Q1FY26, driven by the company’s expansion into Tier 2 and 3 towns and a stronger focus on premium offerings.

    Meanwhile, Trendlyne Forecaster estimates Gujarat Fluorochemicals to post 146.9% YoY EPS helped growth and 19.4% revenue growth in Q1FY26, driven by its focus on high-value products such as battery chemicals and Fluoropolymers.

    In FY25, its fluoropolymer segment recorded strong revenue growth, thanks to higher volumes and stable product prices as the company ramped up production capacity. It also shifted towards higher-margin fluoropolymers used in electric vehicle batteries, which boosted realisations and improved operating margins by 3.4 percentage points to 24.1%.

    To capitalise on EV growth, Dr. Bir Kapoor, CEO, said, “We are investing Rs 6,000 crore to expand capacity for EV battery materials and aim to enter high-demand markets in the US and Europe by FY28 through this vertical.” 

    IT and consumer durables set for revenue boost on rising demand and order wins

    Trendlyne Forecaster estimates strong Q1FY26 revenue growth forKaynes Technology,Bharat Dynamics,C.E. Info Systems,National Aluminium Company, andCoforge.

    Kaynes Technology, a consumer durables company, has delivered a 900% return to shareholders over the past three years. During this period, its revenue grew at a CAGR of 58.5% and profit at 91.9%, driven by strong demand from the automotive and industrial automation sectors and support from government-backed Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes. Trendlyne Forecaster projects 58.8% YoY revenue growth and 38.2% EPS growth for Q1FY26.

    Jairam Sampath, CFO, said, “We are projecting 60% revenue growth for FY26 and expect EBITDA margin to improve by 50 basis points to 15.6%, helped by a strong order book and execution of new business opportunities. We also expect exports to contribute 20–25% of revenue, up from the current 10%.”

    Forecaster expects C.E. Info Systems (MapmyIndia) to post 40.1% revenue growth and 25.3% EPS growth in Q1FY26, driven by a strong order book from the automotive segment and government contracts. In FY25, its order book stood at Rs 1,500 crore.

    Rakesh Verma, CMD, said, “In FY25, we expanded into the Southeast Asian market, and we project revenue from this region to grow from Rs 26 crore in FY26 to Rs 80 crore by FY28, with the order book expected to cross Rs 2,000 crore.”

    Capital goods and realty stocks lead Q1FY26 profit and revenue forecasts

    Analysts expect strong EPS and revenue expansion in the upcoming quarter for stocks includingInox Wind,FSN E-Commerce Ventures,Sobha,Coforge, andMulti Commodity Exchange, supported by healthy demand and margin improvement.

    Inox Windholds a 15% market share and gained 21% over the past year. It leadsNifty 500 peers with a 158.2% YoY revenue growth and EPS growth of 616.8% for Q1FY26. The company postedpositive EPS in FY25 of Rs 3.4 after the promoter infused Rs 2,200 crore in FY25 to reduce debt and improve working capital.

    Management aims toachieve1,200 MW of wind turbine execution in FY26 and expects revenue realisation to increase to Rs 5.5 crore per megawatt (MW), up from Rs 5 crore. In FY25, its order book stood at 3,203 MW. Analysts at Axis Directproject strong revenue visibility over the next 2–3 years and expect revenue to grow at a CAGR of 69% during FY26–27.

    Realty playerSobha has seen its share pricerise 20% over the past three months. Its average price realisation rose 23% Rs 13,412 per sq ft in FY25 as it entered high-income markets such as Mumbai and Greater Noida. Trendlyne’s Forecasterestimates EPS growth to be 440% and revenue growth to be 122.5% YoY for Q1FY26.

    Yogesh Bansal, CFO, said, “We plan to launch nine mn sq ft of residential projects in FY26 and target to achieve Rs 10,000 crore in sales, a 60% jump over FY25. We expect a 33% EBITDA margin of Rs 15,873 crore of unsold inventory, compared to 9.8% last year, as we shift towards premium projects.”

    Similarly, stocks from the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, metals and mining, andcapital goods sectors—such asLaurus Labs,Godawari Power & Ispat,National Aluminium Company, Bharat Dynamics, andSignatureglobal—also fall into the category of high EPS and revenue growth estimates.

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    The Baseline
    25 Jun 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - June 25, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - June 25, 2025

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    1. Container Corp of India:

    Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this logistics company with a target price of Rs 980, a 31.5% upside. The company’s domestic volumes rose 12% in FY25, supported by its entry into new commodity segments. For FY26, it targets 13% overall volume growth (including 20% domestic), helped by high-margin segments and faster cargo movement through the dedicated freight corridor (DFC) — a rail line built exclusively for goods.

    Analysts Alok Deora and Saurabh Dugar note that the Dadri–Mundra rail freight route, operational since May 2023, has already shifted a significant share of cargo from road to rail. With the full DFC set to be operational by FY26, more cargo from northern India is likely to shift toward the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (JNPT), benefiting Container Corp due to its strong presence at the port.

    Container Corp holds a strong market position, with around 58% share at JNPT and 56% across India as of March 2025. In FY25, the company invested Rs 810 crore, and plans to increase capex to Rs 860 crore in FY26. The funds will be used to expand its container and rake fleet, develop new terminals, and upgrade IT systems.

    Deora and Dugar project a 10% CAGR in volumes and expect EBITDA margins to remain healthy at 23–24% over FY26–27.

    2. Axis Bank:

    Emkay reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 1,400, a 14.6% upside. The bank’s management sees the RBI’s policy stance as supportive of credit growth but believes it is still too early to revise system-wide loan growth estimates. However, they expect Axis Bank’s credit growth to be 300–400 bps higher than the industry average.

    Analysts Anand Dama, Nikhil Vaishnav, and Kunaal N note that the recent sharp cut in the RBI’s repo rate could put pressure on bank margins in H1FY26, especially in Q2. However, as deposit rates adjust downward, some of this pressure may ease in the second half. Axis Bank expects its net interest margin (NIM) to settle around 3.8% in the medium term, down from 4% in FY25.

    The bank has no plans to introduce any new policy changes that might affect its non-performing assets or loan loss provisions (LLP). Dama, Vaishnav, and Kunaal believe the LLP has largely peaked and is unlikely to increase further.

    3. Happy Forgings:

    ICICI Securities initiates coverage on this forging company with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 1,150, an upside of 18.6%. Over FY20–25, the company’s revenue from commercial vehicles (CV) and farm equipment (FES) segments grew at a CAGR of 15% and 17%, respectively, outpacing the industry by a wide margin. This was driven by a broader product portfolio, the addition of new customers, and higher wallet share from existing clients.

    Analysts Ronak Mehta, Vivek Kumar and Vishakha Maliwal expect CV volumes to grow at 4–5% over FY26–27, supported by the vehicle scrappage policy (a government initiative to remove old, polluting vehicles from roads).

    Happy Forgings designs, manufactures, and supplies forged and machined parts that are essential for safety in automotive and other industries. In FY25, it secured new orders worth Rs 250 crore. As of March 2025, its order book stood at around Rs 650 crore, to be executed over the next 2–3 years. The company also expects to receive about Rs 300 crore in new orders over the next 12–24 months, mainly from the passenger vehicle (PV) and industrial export segments.

    The company is expected to maintain high capex in the near term as it expands its forging and machining capacity by adding new 10,000-tonne, 3,000-tonne, and 4,000-tonne forging presses. HFL recently announced a capex of Rs 650 crore for heavy forging expansion, while analysts estimate total capex to reach Rs 850 crore over FY26–28.

    4. Privi Speciality Chemicals (PSCL):

    Ventura initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this speciality chemicals company with a target price of Rs 3,253, implying a 42.8% upside. In FY25, revenue rose 19.9% to Rs 2,101 crore, while net profit nearly doubled to Rs 187 crore, driven by higher demand from Europe and North America and new product launches.

    The management has planned an investment of Rs 1,100 crore by FY28 to increase its aroma chemicals production capacity to 54,000 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) from 48,000 MTPA. The company is also investing in backward integration, such as the procurement of raw materials and the generation of green energy, to lower power costs and increase efficiency. Analysts expect this to improve return on equity by 120 bps to 18.1% by FY28.

    Analysts believe PSCL’s focus on improving its supply chain and expanding its distributor base in EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) by introducing new speciality aroma molecule products will help expand internationally. They expect revenue to grow at a CAGR of 19.5% over FY26–28, driven by capacity expansion, changing consumer trends, and growth in the value-added segment.

    5. Lloyds Metals & Energy:

    Axis Securities initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this mining company with a target price of Rs 1,670, implying a 9.4% upside. Analysts Aditya Welekar and Darsh Solanki highlight the company's long-term mining rights at the Surjagarh mining complex till 2057 with 157 million tonnes of hematite ore. They expect this will support volume-driven revenue growth and provide raw material security over the long term.

    The company plans to invest Rs 32,700 crore over the next 5–6 years to expand its infrastructure. This includes two 85 km and 190 km slurry pipelines for transporting ore to its steel plants, a 1.2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) wire rod mill, and a 12 MTPA pellet plant at Konsari, Maharashtra.

    Analysts note that Lloyds Metals does not pay auction premiums to the government, as it holds a mining lease under pre-2015 regulations. Peers with post-2015 leases pay an average 110% premium over the notified price. Analysts believe this gives Lloyds a cost advantage and greater pricing flexibility during down cycles.

    In FY25, the company’s revenue rose 3% to Rs 6,721.4 crore, while net profit increased 16.6% to Rs 1,449 crore—both slightly below Forecaster estimates. During the year, Lloyds Metals acquired a 79.8% stake in Thriveni Earthmovers. Analysts believe this acquisition will help internalise mining operations and drive cost efficiency in FY26.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    20 Jun 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - June 20, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - June 20, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Schneider Electric Infrastructure:

    This heavy electrical equipment manufacturer has risen by 8% in three sessions following Goldman Sachs’ upgrade to a ‘Buy’ rating from 'Sell' with a target of Rs 910 per share. The brokerage projects a strong 31% CAGR in order inflows between FY26-FY28, driven by rising power demand and the need to upgrade India’s distribution infrastructure. It also expects the company’s operating margins to improve by 110 bps to 39.6% by FY32. The report added “We revise the total addressable market upward to $14.5 billion by FY32, from an earlier $9 billion”

    On June 11, Schneider Electric partnered with NVIDIA to develop infrastructure for AI applications. They are working on systems for power, cooling, and high-density racks aimed at making data centers more efficient. As part of the effort, they are setting up thirteen AI factories and five AI gigafactories (large-scale facilities) across Europe.

    In FY25, the company’s net profit rose 56% to Rs 268 crore. Schneider turned profitable in FY22, with profit growing at a CAGR of 76.5% over FY22–25. Revenue increased 20% during the year, in line with Forecaster estimates. Its order inflows rose 13.4% to Rs 2,690 crore, helped by key wins in advanced transformers, smart switchgear, and solutions for utilities and renewable projects.

    The company’s management has announced two major capex projects. It will invest nearly Rs 100 crore at the Vadodara plant to increase the switchgear panel capacity by 75% to 14,000 units by FY27. At the Kolkata plant, a new greenfield facility in Dankuni will receive about Rs 90 crore to expand breaker (electrical safety device) capacity from 5,000 to 45,000 units, also by FY27.

    Suparna Bhattacharyya, CFO, commented on the expected gains from the capex, saying, “We are seeing good traction in orders that we want to execute. It will be a staggered but profitable increase, at least at the gross margin level. There may be some depreciation impact early on, but we’re optimistic about revenue growth from these (capex) lines.”

    CEO & MD Udai Singh noted that while private sector capex announcements for FY26 are down 10–12%, falling inflation at 3.1% may help revive demand. He added that government schemes like the Rs 76,000 crore production-linked incentive (PLI) for digitalization, along with rising demand for data centers, could further support investment momentum.

    2. BEML:

    Thiscommercial vehicle manufacturer rose 2% on June 18, after its Chairman and Managing Director, Shantanu Roy,said the company expects to double its order book by the end of FY26. BEML is a state-owned company that builds vehicles and equipment for mining, defence, and metro rail. It also supplies coaches for various metro and rail projects in India.

    The company endedFY25 with an order book of Rs 14,610 crore and aims to secure over Rs 14,000 crore in new orders in FY26, taking the total to nearly Rs 28,000 crore. The company expects railway, metro, defence, and aerospace segments to drive this growth. 

    InFY25, BEML posted its highest-ever net profit of Rs 292.5 crore, up 3.8%, driven by the execution of high-margin orders in the metro and defence segments. However, revenue fell slightly by 0.8% to Rs 4,022.2 crore due to delays in executing metro and rail orders, especially in Q3. 

    Regarding the slow order execution, Roysaid, ”The order execution that we were planning could not happen because of prototype clearance and a waiting period, which is generally 18 to 24 months for the first prototype.” The management plans to speed up execution in FY26 as key metro and Vande Bharat projects progress. It expects a 20% revenue increase in FY26, supported by a strong order pipeline.

    Commenting on the future plans, Roysaid, “The next big thing we are working on is the high-speed train, the bullet train, which should be a game changer for the country. It's a collaborative effort of the Indian Railways, National Highspeed Rail Corporation, and BEML.” The company is developing a prototype for the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train and aims to begin trials by December 2026.

    BEML is alsobidding for the Rs 30,000-40,000 crore Vande Metro project in Mumbai, and plans to launch Vande Bharat Sleeper prototypes this year. On June 9, itsigned agreements with the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) to build three defence mobility platforms, including support systems for Arjun tanks.

    Elara Securities hasreiterated its ‘Accumulate’ rating on BEML, citing strong order visibility, 20% revenue growth guidance for FY26, and robust metro and defence prospects, with a target price of Rs 4,860.

    3. RHI Magnesita India:

    This refractory producer surged over 3% on June 16 after Axis Securities reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 550 over the next three to six months. The brokerage believes that RHI Magnesita is well-positioned to benefit from rising demand, thanks to its leadership in the Indian refractory market, where it holds a 30% share. India is currently the fastest-growing refractory market globally, with a projected 6-8% CAGR through FY30.

    FY25 performance was slightly below expectations however, with annual revenue declining marginally, and missing Forecaster estimates by 1.6% due to heightened competition and rising input costs. Net profit came in 9% below estimates as EBITDA margins fell by 100 bps, weighed down by pressure on realisation rates, higher raw material prices, and increased employee expenses.

    The company has earmarked Rs 150 crore in capex for FY26. According to CFO Azim Syed, a significant portion of this investment will go toward acquiring modern presses, which are expected to lower manpower costs once commissioned over the next 12 to 14 months. He also highlighted that net debt was reduced by 53%, ending FY25 at Rs 146 crore.

    MD and CEO Pramod Sagar says, “Medium-term demand fundamentals remain intact, with domestic steel capacity poised to expand and infrastructure-led cement demand expected to recover in FY26.” RHI’s high-grade refractory products are used in high-temperature industrial processes of over 1,200°C across sectors like steel, cement, and glass. He also stated that the company is selectively raising prices to offset cost increases and expects EBITDA margins to reach 15% by Q2 FY26 from 13.7% currently.

    While Axis Securities sees strong medium-term potential, it flags short-term risks such as elevated input costs and intensified competition. The brokerage projects a sales CAGR of 13% and net profit CAGR of 30% over FY26–27. The company appears in the screener of stocks where FIIs and mutual funds have increased their stake over the past quarter.

    4. Siemens:

    Thisheavy electrical equipment company rose 3% on June 17 after receiving a Rs 1,230 crore order from the National High-Speed Rail Corporation (NHSRCL). The order includes developing a signalling and telecommunication system for the Mumbai–Ahmedabad high-speed rail project.

    Siemens operates in the industrial automation, mobility, and infrastructure sectors. In line with parent company Siemens AG’s restructuring plan, the Indian arm announced the demerger of its energy business (Siemens Energy) on May 14, 2024, to focus on power generation equipment, transmission systems, and renewable energy.

    Sunil Mathur, MD and CEO,said, “The two businesses operate in very different markets and need different types of investment. The demerger allows both companies to focus on their core areas, use resources more efficiently, and helps us work towards doubling Siemens’ order book in five years.”

    InQ2FY25 (In fiscal year of Oct to Sept), Siemens' revenue declined 2.5% YoY to Rs 4,259 crore, following weaker demand in its factory automation and industrial control systems business. Meanwhile, its order book rose 7.2% to Rs 41,460 crore. Mathursaid, “The industrial automation and mobility segments faced weak demand due to sluggish private capex, and fewer large projects were executed and billed, which impacted revenue and profitability.”

    Siemens plans to invest Rs 1,100 crore over the next two to three years to expand its main businesses. It aims to increase export revenue share from 12% to 20% over the next three to five years.

    Management is optimistic about the mobility segment in H2FY25. Mathursaid, “We expect stronger revenue and volume, driven by project deliveries of the 9,000 horsepower locomotive, and aim to scale production from 5 to 100 units annually by FY27.”

    Prabhudas Lilladhermaintains an ‘Accumulate’ rating on Siemens with a target price of Rs 3,497. The brokerage expects large orders from Indian Railways, metro projects, and growth in public capital expenditure to drive long-term growth in the mobility and smart infrastructure segments. They believe the demerger of the energy business will help Siemens focus on core verticals and improve capital allocation.

    5. Oil India (OIL):

    This exploration & production company rose by 5.1% on June 12 as it signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Cochin Port Authority to establish a support base for offshore oil exploration in the Kerala-Konkan Basin. In a recent interview, India’s Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Hardeep Singh Puri, highlighted key reforms in exploration policy. He pointed out that India has transitioned from a production-sharing to a revenue-sharing model. Puri believes that oil discoveries and regulatory simplification could drive a significant leap in the country's economic growth. He believes that India is on the brink of a ‘Guyana-sized’ oil discovery in the Andaman Sea.

    The company reported a 1.1% rise in revenue with a net profit jump of 3.4% in FY25 due to growth in natural gas & pipeline transportation revenue. It marginally missed the Forecaster net profit estimate by 1.2%, led by a decline in crude oil segment revenue and high volatility in crude oil prices. The company appears in a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

    Debojeet Hazarika - GM Finance at OIL, stated, “Our capex for FY25 was Rs 8,467 crore. Around 80% of the capex was allocated to upstream (finding and extracting), while the remaining went into midstream (transportation & storage) and downstream (refining & distribution). FY26 remains broadly similar, with an emphasis on exploration, development drilling, and strategic downstream growth. Additionally, a planned capex of Rs 9,133 crore has been earmarked for Numaligarh refinery in FY26.”

    Avendus Spark has initiated a ‘Buy’ rating on OIL with a target price of Rs 630, citing strong production visibility and capacity expansion as key positives, despite recent corrections in oil prices. It highlights “high-octane growth at low valuation” with over 80% earnings growth potential in three years, which it considers a rarity in the sector. Growth is expected to be volume-driven, supported by a threefold increase in Numaligarh refinery capacity and steady upstream output.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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    The Baseline
    19 Jun 2025
    Winners and losers of 2025 in global indices | Screener: Nifty outperformers (so far) this year

    Winners and losers of 2025 in global indices | Screener: Nifty outperformers (so far) this year

    By Tejas MD

    No one wants the news to be too interesting. But that's what has happened in 2025. After Trump's tariffs came the India-Pakistan conflict, and now it's the Iran-Israel war. It’s been a year where one should ask: "Who needs Netflix?" Just refresh the news page.

    Everyone praises the patient, long-term investor. And sure, patience may be a virtue, but these days it’s being tested everyday. 

    How are the world’s major indices holding up in the storm? Trendlyne’s global indices dashboard has the answers, and we take a closer look.  

    In this week’s Analyticks,

    • Markets versus global shocks: A performance check of global indices
    • Screener: Stocks beating the Nifty 50 and their sectors over the past quarter and year

    Global indices: 2025's winners and losers

    Only three major indices have posted gains so far in 2025: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, followed by Germany’s DAX and the UK’s FTSE 100. 

    The Taiwan Weighted Index, 2024’s top performer, has tumbled to the bottom, hit by a cooling AI-tech boom and worries over US tariffs targeting semiconductors.

    Only Hang Seng and DAX post double-digit gains in the past six months

    Nifty 500 and Nasdaq 100 bounced back with double-digit gains over the past quarter. But despite the recent recovery, both indices have been flat overall in 2025 due to a weak start to the year.

    India’s Nifty 500 is the top performer over five years, with the Nasdaq 100 in the second spot. The Hang Seng, FTSE 100, and Shanghai Composite lag over the same time period.

    Despite continued global upheaval, indices recovered in the past quarter. The top stock gainers in the respective indices indicate that tech was the top performer for the US, while energy, pharma, and industrials won elsewhere. 

    Top-performing stocks across global indices in the past quarter

    Palantir Tech, a major US tech player in defence, national security and healthcare, was the top S&P 500 performer in 2024 and has extended its momentum in 2025.

    Garden Reach Shipbuilders is the Nifty 500’s best performer in the past quarter. This aerospace and defence company is rising after strong Q4 results. 

    Rising oil prices keep central bankers on their toes

    Most central banks started easing rates last year, after rate hikes to tackle record inflation in 2022. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) initially held back but joined the rate-cutting cycle in 2025.


    RBI and ECB cut rates in 2025; US Fed hits pause

    Under the new RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, who took office in December, the central bank has moved quickly to boost growth, and has cut rates by a whole percentage point.

    The US Fed, in contrast, has been more cautious in 2025, holding rates steady amid the uncertainty around Trump tariffs. Analysts project two rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, with the first likely in September. But this is far from guaranteed.

    Now, the Israel–Iran conflict has oil prices surging. Brent crude jumped 10–13% since the first attack by Israel, briefly hitting $78 per barrel. Any instability in the Strait of Hormuz—which Iran controls, and which handles around 20% of global crude oil shipments—could send energy prices past $100, complicating central banks' efforts to reduce inflation.

    According to the Fed’s model, a $10 increase in oil prices is expected to increase US inflation by 0.4% and lower GDP by 0.4%.

    What’s driving equity markets in India and the US?

    The Nifty 50 has recovered in the past quarter, hovering around the 25,000 mark again, thanks to better-than-expected Q4 results. Sectors like general industrials, realty, transportation, and commercial services and supplies stole the spotlight.

    General Industrials emerges as the star sector in the past quarter

    The top four contributors in the general industrials sector are from the defence industry: Hindustan Aeronautics, Bharat Electronics, Solar Industries, and Bharat Dynamics. As the Indian government focused on national security, it boosted spending on domestic defence equipment and product manufacturing.

    Real estate stocks rallied in the last quarter, led by DLF, as Indians aspired to luxury apartments that come with fancy flooring, big balconies, and giant gyms that will be rarely used. Analysts point to easing interest rates as a key driver for rising home purchases.

    Transportation stocks jumped on falling crude oil prices, though the recent spike in oil may pose risks ahead. Meanwhile, commercial services and supplies continued their upward trend, emerging as one of the top-performing sectors over the past year.

    Commercial services and consumer durables are the star segments in the US

    In the past quarter, strong consumer demand, falling interest rates, and solid earnings from retail giants have boosted commercial services and consumer durables in the US.

    Visa and Mastercard led gains in commercial services, helped by rising digital transactions and strong financials. In consumer durables, lower borrowing costs and a retail recovery drove demand.

    Commercial services & supplies: Top-performing sector in the past quarter

    In hardware tech, Nvidia and Broadcom jumped on AI and hardware momentum, while Tesla lifted the auto sector with strong deliveries and renewed investor confidence, after Elon Musk departed from the US government and cut down on his late-night posting on X.


    Screener: Stocks outperforming the Nifty 50 and their sectors over the past quarter and year

    Banking, general industrials rise the most in the past quarter and year

    With global markets in turmoil after the rising tensions between Iran and Israel, we look at stocks that have outperformed the benchmark Nifty 50 index and their sectors. This screener shows stocks that have outperformed the Nifty 50 and their respective sectors over the past year and quarter. 

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the banking & finance, general industrials, software & services, realty, and pharmaceuticals & biotechnology sectors. Major stocks in the screener are Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers, BSE, Intellect Design Arena, Valor Estate, Reliance Power, Authum Investment, Multi Commodity Exchange, and GE Vernova T&D India. 

    Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers’ stock price has surged 143.3% and 94.6% over the past quarter and year. This aerospace & defence company’s Q4FY25 net profit and revenue jumped 118.9% and 60.9% YoY, respectively. Inventory destocking, lower purchase of products for resale, sub-contracting, and finance costs helped increase net profit, while improvement in order execution drove revenue growth. The company also won multiple contracts from India and overseas, including an order reportedly worth Rs 25,000 crore to supply eight Next Generation Corvettes (NGC) for the Indian Navy.

    Intellect Design Arena also features in the screener after its stock price rose 93.4% and 16.1% over the past quarter and year, respectively. This IT software products company’s revenue and net profit jumped 18.7% and 85.4% YoY during Q4FY25. Improvements in collections and the license, platform and asset management company (AMC) segments helped revenue growth. The company secured nine new customer wins for its digital transformation journey and achieved 16 product implementations for global financial institutions.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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