The 41 reports from 13 analysts offering long term price targets
for GAIL (India) Ltd. have an average target of 131.50. The consensus estimate
represents a downside of -1.90%
from the last price of 134.05.
Owing to the huge demand supply mismatch across the globe on the path of normalization in the post COVID world, spot LNG prices and petchem margins are trending at multi-year highs. GAIL has reported concerns in its Gas trading and Petchem segment in 1HFY21, which are now likely to see some gains. GAIL has outperformed the Nifty by ~30% (rallying ~36%) over the last one-month...
Event update: The unified tariff regulation notified by the PNGRB last week is designed to be revenue neutral for existing pipelines of natural gas transportation as explained in the new regulation. And this view has been echoed by industry executives during our channel checks. We agree with the regulations' primary rationale to help deliver gas at a uniform tariff across India and expand the gas market. And the proposal to notify rules for the gas exchange (and a grid management system) will support gas to gas competition. In a nutshell, the unified tariff, if taken to its logical conclusion and supported by a natural gas exchange, availability of green' fuel at a competitive price...
Considering that the petrochemicals business is back to optimal levels & improvement in natural gas demand, the outlook remains positive. Hence, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a revised price target of Rs.108 based on SOTP valuation....
Gas transmission segment volumes were down 2.1% YoY at 106.4 mmscmd (our estimate: 105 mmscmd). Transmission volumes surpassed FY20 levels during the current quarter and are expected to improve further post commission of pipelines. Going ahead, we estimate 105.7 mmscmd and 118.5 mmscmd for FY21E and FY22E, respectively, on account of additional domestic gas from newer fields. The gas transmission EBIT at | 1021.2 crore was up 27.2% YoY and came in above our estimates. On the gas trading front, volumes fell 6.4% YoY to 88.6 mmscmd. Gas trading loss was at | 364...
TTK Prestige: TTK delivered a miss in revenue and margin despite a robust 20% YoY growth in Aug/Sep. Weak performance in July (localised lockdown and supply constraints), resulted in revenue/EBITDA growth of 3/-1% YoY (HSIE 8/8%). West region was among the most impacted markets in July. The company has grown at a healthy pace (15% YoY) in October too and festive demand should be a driver in 3Q. Gross margin was adversely impacted by product mix (decline in cookers). However, cost control measures helped restrict the impact on EBITDA margin. With the recovery in cookers (Sep/Oct), we expect the margin to be healthy in 2HFY21 (price hike will also support). We increase our EPS estimates for FY21/FY22/FY23 by 3/2/1%. We value TTK Prestige at 35x P/E on Sep-22E EPS and maintain the target price of Rs 6,250. Maintain ADD. Symphony: Symphony's 2QFY21 was in line with our estimates (down 43% YoY) as domestic business continued to face challenges due to high trade inventory. Recovery in exports was strong, although Rest of the World (RoW) delivered mixed results. GSK China continued to struggle, while IMPCO and CT delivered positive growth. Gross margin at 48% saw a sequential recovery, still lower than 50% guidance. Liquidation of channel inventory will continue to remain a key monitorable in FY21. Primary sales are expected to remain impacted over the next two quarters due to trade inventory and liquidity pressure in the channel. Our thesis around gradual recovery seems to be playing out, and we expect the recovery in demand to gain...
GAIL's 2QFY21 results were spectacular, with revenue miss of 16%/7.8% vs NBIE/consensus estimate at Rs136.43bn and PAT beat of 76.7%/14.5% vs NBIE/consensus estimate at Rs12.39bn. This was driven by the beat in Petchem and Gas Transmission segments as well as other income. The Gas Marketing segment reported EBITDA loss at Rs3.35bn vs profit of Rs2.54bn/loss of Rs5.17bn YoY/QoQ. According to GAIL all segments (except Gas Marketing) were operating at optimum volumes, with Gas Transmission surpassing FY20 average. CGD volume has touched 80-90% of normal level. Loss in Gas Marketing was a result of lower volume and high US H-H benchmark linked LNG cost, which could not be passed on due to soft spot gas...
GAIL reported lower-than-estimated 2QFY21 EBITDA, led by continued poor performance in gas trading for the second consecutive quarter. However, other segments reported better numbers (with petchem being a surprise). Gas transmission volumes stood at 106mmscmd (-2% YoY) in 2QFY21, although above FY20 average. GAIL expects further increase in transmission and trading volumes in the coming quarters. With some delay, the Kochi-Mangalore pipeline is expected to be completed by end-Nov'20 and gas sales of ~0.7mmscmd will start immediately....
Segment wise, natural gas transmission revenue stood at Rs 1268.13 crore, down by 14% YoY and accounted for 8% of sales. PBIT from the same was down by 17% to Rs 716.65 crore with PBIT margin at 56.5% as compared to 58.1% for June19 quarter. LPG transmission revenues stood at Rs 153.55 crore up by 14% YoY and accounted for 1% of sales. PBIT from the same rose 32% to Rs 81.48 crore. PBIT margins stood at 53.1% as compared to 45.7% for June19 quarter. Natural gas marketing segment revenue stood at Rs 11635.38 crore down by 38% YoY and accounted for 73% of sales. PBIT from the same was loss of Rs 614.06 crore compared to profit...
Brigade Enterprises: BRGD reported 1QFY21 pre-sales volume/value at 0.42mn sqft/Rs 2.5bn, registering decline of 63%/58% YoY. While leasing activity was conspicuous by its absence, rental collection from existing portfolio remained healthy at 98% in 1QFY21. The company has given 50% waiver on MG during the lockdown for the retailers who have reopened at the mall. BRGD has started operations at hospitality assets and hopes to achieve gross operating breakeven by 2QFY21. Collection of Rs 3.8bn led to positive operating cashflow of Rs 820mn. Net debt also remained stable at Rs 29bn (Rs 28bn at FY20-end, BRGD's share). Despite midterm challenges in hospitality and retail business, we maintain BUY with target price of Rs 213/sh as BRGD has strong liquidity. Lease tie-up in BTG Bengaluru will lead to further re-rating. Balaji Amines: Our BUY recommendation on Balaji Amines with a price target of INR 785 is premised on (1) robust demand from pharma and agrochemical industry that comprise 77% of its revenue mix, and (2) faster-than-anticipated recovery in plant utilisation. 1Q EBITDA/APAT was 41/71% above our estimates, attributable to (1) 10% higher sales volumes and (2) 28% higher per-kg EBITDA. JMC Projects: JMC Project's (JMC) 1QFY21 financial performance has been severely impacted as its order book has a high exposure to the worst-affected urban regions, mainly in the buildings and factories segment (58% of order backlog). With almost a one-month loss due to the lockdown, execution is now gradually ramping up with labour availability improving from 60% to 75% QoQ. Despite weak execution, order intake has been...
Gas transmission segment volumes were down 14.4% YoY at 90.2 mmscmd (our estimate: 97.5 mmscmd) as offtake was lower due to impact of lockdown. Going ahead, we estimate transmission volumes at 109 mmscmd, 127.5 mmscmd for FY21E, FY22E, respectively, due to additional domestic gas from newer fields. The gas transmission EBIT at | 716.7 crore, was down 16.6% YoY but above our estimates due to lower costs. Gas trading volumes declined 15.9% YoY to 81.2 mmscmd. Gas trading reported loss of | 545.5 crore (estimated profit: | 214.9 crore) as the company had to...
Significant impact in physical performance coupled with lower price realisations. Maintain Accumulate GAIL's Q1FY21 results were below our estimates on revenue front and...
Gas trading loss looms large in massive miss NBIE Values your patronage- Vote for The Team in the Asia Money poll 2020. Click Here GAIL's 1QFY21 results were disastrous, with revenue beat of 25.16%/(13.3%) at Rs120.87bn and PAT miss of 76.61%/75.5% at Rs2.56bn vs NBIE/street estimates. The gas marketing segment reported EBITDA loss at Rs5.17bn vs profit of Rs8.61bn/Rs6.31bn YoY/QoQ. During the concall, the management reported a revival across all segments to near precovid volumes that could still be at risk from future lockdowns, which is unpredictable. The management could not explain why such a steep loss in the gas trading segment earnings...
Weak performance: GAIL reported sharply lower than expected Q1FY21 results- EBITDA Rs6.2bn (PLe: Rs16.9bn; -72% YoY) and PAT at Rs2.5bn (PLe Rs11.0bn; -80% YoY), respectively. Profit was dragged by lower...
On FY22E, GAIL, GSPL and PLNG are trading at a PER of 6.4-11.9x, a 17-39% discount to their five-year average. By FY22E, operating cash flows should improve by up to 21% YoY, and FCF yield should increase up to 1,020bps YoY for these three companies. A sharp increase in domestic gas supply growth, from no growth over FY17FY20 to a 12% CAGR over FY21FY24E, and the uneven impact of COVID-19 on various gas consumers should shuffle the deck in the gas utilities sector. Coupled with global excess supply (over demand) keeping LNG prices competitive, this should benefit Indian gas utilities. We expect supply and (low) price led 9.8% CAGR in Indian natural gas demand over FY2124E to drive earnings growth of 42-45% (FY21FY23E) as well as stock price upside potential of over 19-27% for our top picks GAIL, GSPL, and Petronet LNG. Rising capacity utilisation should drive growth for these stocks, which currently trade at compelling valuations.
GAIL (India) consolidated net sales of the company fell 6% to Rs 17922.79 crore in Q4FY20 compared to Q4FY19. OPM of the company rose 660 bps to 15.9% leading to 62% increase in operating profits to Rs 2841.93 crore. Other income was up 17% to Rs 955.56 crore. As a result PBDIT increased 48% to 3797.49 crore. Interest cost rose 787% to Rs 215.62 crore while depreciation rose 31% to Rs 639.89 crore. PBT was up 43% to Rs 2941.98 crore....
GAIL has come out with robust set of numbers in Q4FY20 led by strong profit growth from petrochemicals and gas trading division. Though, volume growth remain muted for most of the segments owing to lockdown for 9 days in Mar'20 but lower gas cost, better marketing margin and cost efficiency across segment boosted profits. Further, out of total 120 cargoes in FY20, 46 were sold overseas and 74 in India and expect similar ratio for FY21 as well. Out of total 90 LNG cargoes from US, the company has already sold 37 cargoes overseas and nearly 70% of total volume is hedged. The company mentioned that except CNG volume, volume at all the segment has come...
GAIL reported a beat of 25% on EBITDA at INR24.8b (+47% YoY, +19% QoQ). EBITDA was up 13% YoY to INR11.6b, with transmission volumes at 109mmscmd (flat YoY and QoQ), implying ~53% utilization. Gas transmission EBIT was up 15% YoY to INR8.9b. EBITDA was flat YoY at INR1.1b, with volumes up 2% YoY at 1.04mmt (102% utilization). LPG Transmission EBIT was also flat YoY at INR0.9b. EBIT was higher than expected at INR6.0b (+3% YoY, +29% QoQ), while volumes stood at 97.8mmscmd (flat YoY, +2% QoQ). Petchem sales were lower 18% YoY/QoQ at 174kmt; however, EBITDA at INR1.85b (~2x YoY) was due to lower gas cost. Nevertheless, realization was also lower 13% YoY at INR70/kg (flat QoQ). EBITDA came in at INR5.5b (+23% YoY, +74% QoQ), led by better realization. Transmission segment should remain a major contributor to EBIDTA (>50% share) and volumes are expected to grow to ~125mmscmd in FY22E.
