588.25 -28.70 (-4.65%)
NSEMar 05, 2021 03:31 PM
The 9 reports from 4 analysts offering long term price targets for Radico Khaitan Ltd. have an average target of 544.33. The consensus estimate represents a downside of -7.47% from the last price of 588.25.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2021-02-22||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||Way2Wealth||554.40||554.40 (6.11%)||Accumulate|
|2021-01-30||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||489.45||546.00||489.45 (20.19%)||Target met||Accumulate|
HSIE Results Daily: Dabur, Lupin, Shriram Transport Finance, Aarti Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services, Motilal ...
Motilal Oswal Financial Services: Strong cash/derivative volume at +42.1/102.6% YoY drove capital markets APAT +63.3 YoY to Rs 818mn. Recovery in equity markets with some outflows meant net improvement of just 14.4/7.2% YoY/QoQ in closing AUM. The AMC's APAT recovered +31.7% QoQ to Rs 382mn. Significant MTM gain (Rs 2.1bn, +286.1% YoY) on treasury resulted in MOFS (ex. MOHFL) APAT growth of 120.5/22.5% YoY/QoQ. We have increased our FY21E APAT estimate by 21.3% to factor in the higher treasury and lower operating expenses, while mildly changing FY22/23E estimates. We retain an ADD with a TP of Rs 740 (15/25x Sep-22E Broking/AMC APAT, + 0.7/0.5x for Sep-22E treasury/ MOHL). Radico Khaitan: Radico delivered a mixed result as there was a miss in revenue but a beat in margin. P&A volume grew by 5% YoY, supported by exports while Popular volume declined by 1% YoY. Radico's overall volume growth of 1% YoY was slightly ahead of the industry, which declined by 1%. Excluding AP (4% mix vs. 8% YoY) and CSD (down 25% YoY, ~10% mix), domestic volume growth stood at 9% YoY. Gross margin was up by sharply 232bps YoY to 50.8%, supported by benign RM inflation and improved mix (IMFL mix grew to 81.7%). Radico continued to gain market share in most major states. We expect Radico to sustain a strong earnings show over the next few quarters, led by (1) recovery in the industry (the most impacted states are recovering), (2) market share gains supported by new launches, (3) stable ENA prices, (4) strong traction...
|2021-01-30||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||489.45||580.00||489.45 (20.19%)||Target met||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
Radico continues to widen its volume growth performance over other industry players. It is on the cusp of another breakthrough (post dominance of domestic vodka market volumes) with its focus on the bigger domestic P&A; whisky segment by launching more brands in the segment. Exports market (8% of revenues) and CSD (8-9% of revenue), present other opportunities to grow its premium products. The company is also expected to become debt free in a year or two. We maintain our BUY rating on the...
|2020-10-29||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||445.70||550.00||445.70 (31.98%)||Target met||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
Newer launches to help company tap premium segments Premium variants of successful brands such as 8PM whisky (8PM platinum), Morpheus brandy (Morpheus Blue), Magic Moments (better canister packaging, Magic Moments Verve) has helped the company to explore newer segments (Prestige and Above whisky) and also tap different consumer palates. Radico is planning to launch more premium products in the whiskey segment. Launches in super-premium segments (Jaisalmer Indian Craft gin, Rampur Indian Single Malt) are expected to help the...
|2020-08-10||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||Dolat Capital||383.10||507.00||383.10 (53.55%)||Target met||Buy|
Upping the competitive ante; Growth + PE re-rating story Radico Khaitan (RDCK) AR highlight that it registered a healthy 12.5% volume growth in FY20 against industry growth of meager 0.5%. Premiumisation remains the key focus area and a growth driver. 11 out of 12 brands launched in last decade were in premium category. RDCK's brand portfolio is entirely organically developed. RDCK has four millionaire brands and two more in the pipe. RDCK was ranked as the no. 1 mid-cap company in Fortune India's The Next 500 viz. the most...
|2020-07-24||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||393.80||460.00||393.80 (49.38%)||Target met||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
The company is seeing a good recovery as June sales were only down ~10% YoY and the company expects to reach normal revenue trajectory in H2FY21. On profitability front, gross margin expanded owing to combination of factors like better price realisation and favourable state and product mix and price increase in key southern state of Telangana. Benign input cost and higher product realisation are expected to aid in gross margin improvement and stringent cost control and judicious spend on sales promotion will...
|2020-07-24||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||Dolat Capital||393.80||507.00||393.80 (49.38%)||Target met||Buy|
backdrop of Covid. Key highlights were (1) A modest volume de-growth of 10% YoY in Jun (2) 1/3rd debt reduction from Rs 3.8bn in Mar'20 to Rs 2.6bn as of Jun and (3) 740/240bps gross/EBITDA margin expansion. Over the last three years, RDCK experienced robust volume growth, price increases, premiumisation, RM tailwinds, and thus de-leveraging. RDCK's revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew at an impressive CAGR of 13/21/41% over FY17-20. Net debt declined from Rs 9.5bn in FY16, to Rs 2.6bn as of Jun-20. We remain constructive on RDCK story due to...
|2020-05-30||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||330.25||363.00||330.25 (78.12%)||Target met||Buy|
We value Radico at 16x on Mar-22E EPS, deriving a TP of Rs 363. Maintain BUY. Radicos 4QFY20 performance was strong with 15% yoy growth in net revenues. IMFL revenue and volume growth was 16% and 13%, out of which, P&A; clocked 31% and 11% respectively. This was in stark contrast to the industry (flat yoy) which struggled in 4QFY20 (UNSP posted rev/vol decline of 11/13% yoy). Co continued scaling its premium brands (Rampur, Morpheus, 8PM Black, etc) and Morpheus is expected to become a millionaire brand in FY21. EBITDA growth of 13% was not only superior to UNSP but also to other FMCG players.
|2020-05-29||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||330.25||400.00||330.25 (78.12%)||Target met||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
Strong volume growth continues for IMFL category Despite the lockdown in the latter part of March, RKL was able to deliver double digit volume growth in Indian made foreign liquor (IMFL). For FY20, IMFL volume growth was ~12.5% whereas prestige and above segment grew 15.2% YoY to 7.05 million cases while regular and other segment volumes grew 11.4%. Volume growth was broad based across key states and key IMFL brands. RKL's new brands 8PM Black Whiskey and 1965 Spirit of Victory rum continued their strong growth trajectory. Revenue for FY20...
|2020-01-24||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||380.10||527.00||380.10 (54.76%)||Target met||Buy|
During FY17-19, Radico enjoyed an earnings upcycle which has moderated in 9MFY20. However, co's focus on investing in new launches, driving premiumisation and deleveraging B/S has kept the growth momentum steady. Robust cash flow generation over the last 2 years (Rs 5bn cumulative FCF) was redeployed to repay debt (Rs 3.6bn in Dec-19 as compared to Rs 7.9bn in Mar-17). We expect deleveraging to sustain, making the co debt free by FY22. Healthy cash flow and deleveraging will re-rate the stock. Radico Khaitan saw a blockbuster performance in 3Q with P&A; saw 21% volume growth (beating estimates). Liquor industry facing multiple headwinds (slowdown, flooding, liquidity stress and policy changes) in 9MFY20, despite, Radico posted 16% P&A; volume growth to 5.5mn cases. Ease in RM inflation and sustaining healthy volume should re-rate the stock. We value Radico at 22x (45% discount to UNSP) on Dec-21 EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 527. Maintain BUY.
|2020-01-24||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||388.50||430.00||388.50 (51.42%)||Target met||Buy|
ICICI Securities Limited
Revenues from core services fell marginally by 0.2% to US$155.2 million while DLM revenues dipped 36.8% QoQ to US$15.1 million. Weakness within core services was mainly due to drag in its largest vertical aerospace & defence (decline 5.1% QoQ) on account of a dip in spend in engineering design. Decline in transport (down 14.7% QoQ) vertical also contributed to the slowdown in core. On the positive side, communication recovered healthily with 2.3% QoQ growth. Going ahead, growth is expected to gradually recover in aerospace from Q4FY20E. Taking into account...
|2019-11-08||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||330.40||498.00||330.40 (78.04%)||Buy|
During FY17-19, Radico enjoyed an earnings upcycle which is expected to moderate in FY20. However, co is investing in new launches, driving premiumisation and deleveraging B/S which keeps the story alive. Robust cash flow generation over the last 2 years (Rs 4.4bn cumulative FCF) was redeployed to repay debt (Rs 3.5bn in Sep-19 as compared to 7.9bn in Mar-17). We expect deleveraging to sustain, making the co debt free by FY22. We expect the stock to re-rate as premiumisation and deleveraging continues. Radico Khaitans 2Q performance was soft but still stronger than industry growth. Liquor industry was impacted by slowdown, flooding, liquidity stress in the trade and stiff RM inflation. We believe these headwinds will moderate in 2H. We value Radico at 22x (45% discount to UNSP) on Sep-21 EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 498. Maintain BUY.
|2019-09-24||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||319.80||400.00||319.80 (83.94%)||Target met||Buy|
|2019-08-09||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||318.15||492.00||318.15 (84.90%)||Buy|
During FY17-19, Radico enjoyed an earnings upcycle which is expected to moderate in FY20. However, co is investing in new launches, driving premiumisation and deleveraging B/S which keeps the story alive. Robust cash flow generation over the last 2 years (Rs 4.4bn cumulative FCF) was redeployed to repay debt (Rs 3bn in Jun-19 vs. 7.9bn in Mar-17). We expect deleveraging to sustain, making the co debt free by FY22. We expect the stock to re-rate as premiumisation and deleveraging continues. Radico Khaitans 1Q performance was mixed with beat in volume growth but in-line EBITDA. Hardening of RM cost led to crack in GM margins. Consistent market share gains and scaling new launches drives our revenue upgrade by 6% over FY19-21E. However, sustained RM pressure leads to only 1% EBITDA upgrade over FY19-21E. We value Radico at 26x (35% discount to UNSP) on Mar-21 EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 492. Maintain BUY.
|2019-06-25||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||Emkay||295.40||529.00||295.40 (99.14%)||Target met||Buy|
We believe that the broader mid-cap sell-off, concerns about rising raw material costs and fears about liquor ban in Andhra have overshadowed positive developments such as market share gains backed by product launches and continued debt reduction. RDCK is protected from the recent jump in Extra Neutral Alcohol (ENA) prices as it is backward-integrated with 100mn liters of ENA capacity. The recent price hikes by 10 states...
|2019-05-06||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||Kotak Securities||346.55||440.00||346.55 (69.74%)||Buy|
of our estimates, driven by 6.2% yoy growth in IMFL volume which was at 5.1 mn cases. Volume in Prestige and above category grew at 22.1% yoy while Regular category grew at a slower pace of 1.3% yoy. Volume growth in...
|2019-01-24||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||429.85||592.00||429.85 (36.85%)||Buy|
Reiterate BUY with revised TP of Rs 592 (32x Dec-20E EPS) vs. 40x for UNSP.RDCK trades at relatively cheap valuation at 25/22x FY20/21E EPS vs. 47/37x for UNSP. Radico Khaitan (RDCK) delivered healthy performance in 3QFY19. Revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew by 14.6/27/51% YoY. For 9MFY19, revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew at 18/37/69%.
|2019-01-23||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||Emkay||420.30||547.00||420.30 (39.96%)||Buy|
Volume growth of the premium category continues to be robust: up 19% yoy/7% qoq. The company further reduced debt by Rs768mn in Q3. We expect RDCK to become debt-free in FY20 due to its solid FCF generation. The stock is available at a PER of 23.8x/20.1x FY21/21E EPS which is cheap for a consumer name. Our Buy recommendation is underpinned by an FCF yield of 5%,...
|2019-01-14||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||Emkay||418.05||547.00||418.05 (40.71%)||Buy|
next six months. The company expects molasses prices to be in line with last year. RDCK will incur Rs700mn in capex in the next two years to support premium brands' growth. The company is in the process of: 1) converting one of its molasses distilling plants to a grain spirit-based one; and, 2) tripling its malt spirit capacity to 1.5mn liters. The production of new products Verve Vodka, 8PM Black Whiskey, and Morpheus Blue Brandy is in full swing. Management expects three product launches in the next two years. Our forecasts and TP are unchanged, based on a target 31x FY20E PER, reflecting strong earnings growth. Strong 3Q results with expected 46% yoy growth in earnings should be...
|2018-10-25||Radico Khaitan Ltd. +||Kotak Securities||391.25||431.00||391.25 (50.35%)||Target met||Buy|
with our estimates, driven by 11.5% yoy growth in IMFL volume which was at 5.2 mn cases. Volume in Prestige and above segment grew at 14.6% yoy while Regular segment grew at 10.3% yoy. Volume growth slowed on qoq due to...