Axis Bank Ltd. share price target

Axis delivered a quarter where the headline beat expectations, although the underlying quality of the print was mixed. Core PPoP exceeded our estimate by 3.2%, driven almost entirely by opex.

Axis Bank delivered a robust Q1FY27, with advances up 19% YoY and deposits up 18% YoY, gaining 10 bps and 20 bps market share respectively. Growth was corporate-led (38% YoY, with 91% of the book rated A- and above), while retail disbursements grew 18% YoY, underpinning a gradual retail book recovery. Asset quality improved with GNPA/NNPA at 1.28%/0.39% and net credit cost declining 75 bps YoY to 0.63%. NIM moderated to 3.46% attributed to full transmission of the 125 bps repo cut and balance sheet mix but...

Axis Bank (Axis) reported Q1FY27 PAT of INR 71.1bn (up 23% YoY; 1% QoQ), driven by a sharp decline in provisioning, while NII and PPOP growth was soft.

Loan growth accelerated to 19.0% y/y (vs. 18.5% in Q4FY26), ahead of the system and peers (Kotak/HDFC), while deposit growth of 18.0% y/y was the highest among peers (Kotak/HDFC/ICICI).

Retail and SME comprise ~66% of total loans Q1FY27 performance: Axis Bank reported mixed performance in Q1FY27, with strong business growth partly offset by continued margin compression. Advances grew 19% YoY (2% QoQ), led by robust corporate (38% YoY) and SME (25% YoY) growth, while retail growth remained relatively moderate despite healthy disbursement. Deposits increased 18% YoY (3% QoQ), driven by 23% YoY growth in term deposits, with CASA at 38%. NIM declined 16 bps QoQ to 3.46%, impacted by loan repricing, adverse balance-sheet mix and seasonal agri-related interest...

Axis Bank (AXSB) reported a 1QFY27 net profit of INR71.1b (up 22.5% YoY; 7% beat), led by lower opex (amid a small one-off reversal) as well as controlled provisions.

We value Axis bank on an SOTP basis at INR 1556, comprising the core bank at 1.7x FY28 adjusted book value of INR 843(INR 1433 / share) plus INR 123 for the subsidiaries. With a CMP of INR 1310 and a target price of INR 1556, we arrive at an upside of 19%.

Asset quality improved both q/q & y/y with gross/net slippages declining to 1.63%/0.69% closing the gap with peers on this metric. Loan growth accelerated to 18.5% y/y (vs 14.2% in Q3), ~250bps ahead of system and peers (Kotak/ICICI/HDFC).

Axis Bank reported a strong quarter with advances growing 19% YoY and 6% QoQ, while deposits grew 14% YoY and CASA improved to 40% on MEB basis. NIM moderated to 3.62% (FY26 NIM at 3.69%) reflecting rate cut transmission; management reiterated through-the-cycle NIM guidance of 3.8% to be achieved within 15-18 months from the last rate cut. Asset quality strengthened with GNPA improving 17 bps QoQ to 1.23% and Net NPA at 0.37%. The bank proactively created a one-time voluntary provision of Rs 2,001 cr which is calibrated against a severe stress scenario including oil at $150/bbl neutralised by a Rs 2,193 cr tax...

Retail and SME comprise ~66% of total loans Q4FY26 performance: Axis Bank reported a steady operating performance in Q4FY26, with advances growing ~18.5% YoY (6.4% QoQ) led by strong traction in corporate and SME segments, while retail growth remained relatively moderate but supported by improving disbursement. Deposits increased ~14% YoY (6% QoQ), aided by term deposits and CASA accretion. NIMs remained broadly stable at 3.62%, while other income was impacted by treasury MTM losses, opex remained controlled with cost-to-asset at ~2.3%. Asset quality improved with GNPA/NNPA...

Mixed quarter; NII/opex miss was offset by fees/provisions Targeted retail share is 70% (66.5% as of Mar'26) We trim core PAT for FY27/28E by avg. 2% AXSB saw a mixed quarter as better fees and asset quality was offset by miss on NII and opex. NII growth at 1.2% QoQ was lower to loan growth of 6.4% led by back-ended corporate accretion. Due to tax benefit of INR 21.9bn, buffer provisions of INR 20bn...

Axis Bank (AXSB) reported a 4QFY26 net profit of INR70.7b (flat YoY, up 9% QoQ; in line), as the bank utilized one-off gains from tax reversals to strengthen its standard asset provisioning buffer.

PAT higher than our estimates, mainly supported by tax reversals. Return ratios and AQ improving on lower slippages

Update Note

PPoP in line with estimates; return ratios and asset quality improving

Axis Bank (AXSB) reported 3QFY26 net profit of INR64.9b (up 28% QoQ, 11% beat), aided by lower provisions and controlled opex.

Axis Bank reported a healthy Q3FY26 performance, with operating metrics reflecting steady execution despite a softer interest rate environment. Net interest income grew 5% YoY to Rs14,287 crore, supported by balance sheet expansion and stable margins. Core pre-provision operating profit increased 7% YoY to Rs10,815 crore, aided by healthy fee income growth and controlled operating costs. Profit after tax rose 3% YoY to Rs6,490 crore, with a strong 28% QoQ improvement driven by operating leverage and stable credit costs. We...

Retail and SME comprise ~69% of total loans Q3FY26 performance: Axis Bank reported healthy business momentum though margin pressure persisted in Q3FY26. Advances grew 14% YoY (4% QoQ), led by continued traction in SME and mid-corporate segments, while retail portfolio remained benign in single digit. Deposits recorded robust growth of 15% YoY (5% QoQ), led by healthy CASA inflows, with CASA ratio sustained at 39%. NIM for Q3FY26 was 3.64%, down 9 bps QoQ, reflecting continued transmission of rate cuts. Core operating profit rose 7% YoY (9% QoQ), driven by strong fee income growth...

We sense a strategic shift in Axis Bank (Axis)’s playbook, basis our meeting with Mr Amitabh Chaudhry (MD&CEO), Mr Subrat Mohanty (ED), Mr Puneet Sharma (CFO) and Mr Rahul Jain (Head-IR).