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Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
30 Apr 2024
Market closes lower, Indian Oil Corp's net profit falls 50% YoY to Rs 5,148.9 crore in Q4
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 22,604.85 (-38.6, -0.2%), BSE Sensex closed at 74,482.78 (-188.5, -0.3%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 20,997.20 (5, 0.0%). Market breadth is in the red. Of the 2,077 stocks traded today, 912 were gainers and 1,119 were losers.

Indian indices pared the gains from the afternoon session and closed in the red. The volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose by 5.1% and closed at 12.9 points. Indian Oil Corp’s net profit declined by 50% YoY to Rs 5,149 crore in Q4FY24 due to higher employee benefits and finance costs. Revenue also dropped by 3.1% YoY to Rs 2.2 lakh crore, impacted by the petroleum products segment.

Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 closed flat with the benchmark index closing lower. Nifty Realty and Nifty Auto closed higher than Monday’s closing level. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, retailing emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of over 1.7%. 

Most European indices trade in the red, except for England’s FTSE 100 trading higher. US indices futures trade lower, indicating a negative start. The provisional data indicated Eurozone’s GDP increased by 0.4% YoY in Q1 against estimates of 0.2% growth.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like Escorts Kubota, Aegis Logistics, Just Dial and Hindustan Aeronautics are in the overbought zone.

  • Indian Oil Corp falls sharply as its net profit declines by 50% YoY to Rs 5,148.9 crore in Q4FY24 due to higher employee benefits and finance costs. Revenue also drops by 3.1% YoY to Rs 2.2 lakh crore, impacted by the petroleum products segment. It appears in a screener of stocks with declining net cash flow.

  • KR Choksey reiterates its 'Buy' rating on Axis Bank with an upgraded target price of Rs 1,345 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 15.6%. The brokerage believes that the bank's investment in technology and branch expansion will improve its operating leverage. It expects the company's net profit to grow at a CAGR of 13.2% over FY24-26.

  • Auto stocks like Mahindra & Mahindra, Exide Industries, Ashok Leyland and Apollo Tyres are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index, Nifty Auto, is also trading in the green.

  • Manappuram Finance rises to a 52-week high of Rs 207.3 as SEBI approves the IPO of its subsidiary, Asirvad Micro Finance. The company had filed a draft prospectus with SEBI in October 2023, which was later put on hold.

  • Exide Industries' Managing Director (MD) and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Subir Chakraborty retires, effective today. The company appoints Avik Kumar Roy as the new MD and CEO, effective May 1, 2024.

  • NHPC is rising as it reportedly signs an agreement with Norway-based Ocean Sun to explore the implementation of floating solar energy technology in India.

  • Newgen Software Technologies surges as its Q4FY24 profit rises 54% QoQ to Rs 105.3 crore and revenue grows by 16.6% QoQ. The Europe, Middle East and Africa markets contribute the most towards this revenue growth. The company appears in a screener of stocks with low debt.

  • Nifty 50 reaches a record high of 22,783.4 today, inches closer to the 22,800 mark.

  • Granules India is rising as it receives final approval from the US FDA for its abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) for colchicine capsules. The tablet is a generic equivalent of Hikma International Pharmaceuticals' reference listed drug (RLD), Mitigare capsules, used for the treatment of gout flares.

  • Trent surges to its all-time high of Rs 4,670 per share as its net profit rises 15.8x YoY to Rs 712.1 crore in Q4FY24 owing to an exceptional gain from leasing activities. Revenue grows by 51.1% YoY to Rs 3,297.7 crore during the quarter. It shows up in a screener of stocks with increasing net profit for the past four quarters.

  • PSP Projects wins a work order worth Rs 229.5 crore for the construction of a mall and a multiplex for Thoth Mall and Commercial Real Estate.

  • Nuvama Institutional Equities expects Vodafone Idea to be included in the MSCI Global Standard Index during its August review. The brokerage sees Thermax, FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa), Alkem Laboratories, and SAIL as other likely inclusions to the index.

  • Shoppers Stop’s Q4FY24 net profit jumps 62.5% YoY to Rs 23.2 crore due to reduced inventory costs. Its revenue increases by 13.2% YoY to Rs 1,046.3 crore, driven by healthy demand in its beauty segment and luxury products.

  • Rites rises as it wins an order worth $111.3 million from Bangladesh Railway to supply 200 broad gauge passenger carriages.

  • KFIN Technologies rises as its Q4FY24 net profit improves 30.8% YoY to Rs 74.5 crore and revenue increases by 24.1% YoY to Rs 234.9 crore. The domestic mutual fund investor solutions segment contributes most towards this revenue growth. The company appears in a screener of stocks that have gained more than 20% in the past month.

  • Vivek Mathur, the CFO of KFIN Technologies, guides a revenue growth of 15-20% in FY25. He expects margins to be in the range of 40-45% for the company. Mathur highlights that revenue from international business has increased to 11% in FY24, and expects it to improve to 15% going ahead.

  • Rail Vikas Nigam's joint venture with Kerala Rail Development Corp receives a contract worth Rs 439 crore from Southern Railway to redevelop Thiruvananthapuram Central Railway Station.

  • Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers is rising as the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers approves an investment of Rs 2,169.7 crore in Talcher Fertilizers. Talcher Fertilizers is a joint venture (JV) among GAIL, Coal India and Fertilizer Corp.

  • JNK India’s shares debut on the bourses at a 49.6% premium to the issue price of Rs 415. The Rs 649.5 crore IPO has received bids for 28.1 times the total shares on offer.

  • Mahindra & Mahindra touches a 52-week high of Rs 2,152 following the launch of the XUV 3XO Compact SUV. Investec says this will enhance the compact SUV market share, and strengthen the overall UV franchise of the company. The brokerage maintains its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 2,200.

  • SBFC Finance falls as its promoter reportedly sells its entire 5.5% stake worth Rs 536.5 crore in a bulk deal.

  • KEC International rises sharply as it bags multiple orders worth Rs 1,036 crore from Indian and overseas clients in the transmission & distribution (T&D), railways and cables segments.

  • The Ministry of Corporate Affairs approves the appointment of Hitesh Kumar Sethia as the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Jio Financial Services.

  • Tata Chemicals falls sharply as it posts a net loss of Rs 827 crore in Q4FY24 compared to a net profit of Rs 711 crore in Q4FY23 due to higher provisions. Revenue declines by 21.1% YoY to Rs 3,475 crore, impacted by the basic chemistry products and specialty products segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with declining revenue for the past four quarters.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 22,695.30 (51.9, 0.2%), BSE Sensex was trading at 74,746.98 (75.7, 0.1%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 21,074.45 (82.3, 0.4%).

  • Market breadth is ticking up strongly. Of the 1,850 stocks traded today, 1,417 showed gains, and 370 showed losses.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include REC Ltd. (507.15, 9.5%), Power Finance Corporation Ltd. (441.55, 6.3%) and Schaeffler India Ltd. (3,689.85, 6.1%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. (168.85, -4.5%), Aditya Birla Capital Ltd. (231.40, -3.8%) and YES Bank Ltd. (26.15, -3.5%).

Volume Shockers

47 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included REC Ltd. (507.15, 9.5%), JM Financial Ltd. (88.90, 9.1%) and Gillette India Ltd. (6,667.90, 7.4%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Eureka Forbes Ltd. (471.20, -5.5%), Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. (168.85, -4.5%) and Rossari Biotech Ltd. (749.25, -4.0%).

Star Cement Ltd. (237.20, 4.3%) was trading at 17.8 times of weekly average. Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Healthcare Ltd. (16,070, -0.7%) and Symphony Ltd. (966.50, 1.6%) were trading with volumes 14.4 and 11.5 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

46 stocks took off, crossing 52 week highs, while 1 stock were underachiever and hit their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Ashok Leyland Ltd. (192.65, 3.9%), Astral Ltd. (2,118.10, 3.1%) and Axis Bank Ltd. (1,165.90, 0.6%).

Stock making new 52 weeks lows included - Sheela Foam Ltd. (904.40, -1.1%).

18 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including JM Financial Ltd. (88.90, 9.1%) and Gillette India Ltd. (6,667.90, 7.4%). 7 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Cyient Ltd. (1,806.50, -1.9%) and Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd. (395.55, -1.5%).

 
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The Baseline
29 Apr 2024
5 stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 29, 2024
By Satyam Kumar

1. Welspun Living:

Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this textiles company with a target price of Rs 181. This indicates an upside of 19.3%. In Q4FY24, the company’s net profit rose by 16.4% YoY to Rs 146 crore, and its revenue increased 19.2% YoY to Rs 2,616.7 crore. Analysts at Sharekhan are positive as the company stands to benefit from India signing a free trade agreement (FTA) with the UK, which will help boost revenue in the long term.

Management has given cautious guidance for the near term given the geopolitical tensions. However, the analysts are confident of long-term growth prospects due to large opportunities in the export markets, entry into the home textile segment, and benefits from the ‘China + 1’ strategy. 

Analysts at Sharekhan forecast a 10-12% revenue growth in FY25 driven by fashion towels and flooring segments, coupled with capacity additions. They maintain EBITDA margin guidance at 15-15.5% for FY25.

2. Nestle India:

Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this packaged foods manufacturer with a target price of Rs 2,880, indicating an upside of 14.8%. In Q4FY24, the company’s profit increased 12.4% YoY to Rs 934.2 crore and its revenue grew by 8.8% YoY. It reported EBITDA margins of 25.7%, up 289 basis points YoY. Analysts Preeyam Tolia and Suhanee Shome say, “Nestle delivered resilient all-round performance, driven by growth across all categories, with a healthy balance in product mix, pricing, and volume growth.”

Tolia and Shome are positive about the company due to its efforts toward rural penetration and premiumization in its core categories, and differentiated product launches by adding new categories like Nespresso and Purina Pet Care. They believe the firm’s direct-to-customer platform and its focus on a fast-growing nutraceutical portfolio will help it increase demand. They expect Nestle sales and profit to grow at 13% and 18% CAGR respectively over FY24-25. The analysts are also optimistic about Nestle’s joint venture with  Dr Reddy’s to launch a nutritional portfolio.

3. Hatsun Agro Products:

ICICI Securities upgrades this packaged foods manufacturer to a ‘Buy’ call with a target price of Rs 1,190. This indicates an upside of 8.3%. In Q4FY24, the company’s net profit rose by 108.7% YoY to Rs 52.2 crore and its revenue increased 14.4% YoY to Rs 2,049 crore. Analysts Aniruddha Joshi, Manoj Menon, Karan Bhuwania, and Nilesh Patil are optimistic due to its strong volume-led revenue growth and no price hikes in the past year. The analysts noted that the company reported 10-quarter high gross margins of 30.7% on the back of deflationary trends in raw material prices.  

The analysts expect margin expansion to continue in FY25 due to lower milk prices, higher revenue share of ice cream, accumulation of low-priced inventory, and improved capacity utilisation at the Solapur and Govindapur facilities. They estimate EBITDA margin to be 12.1% in FY25 compared to 11.3% in FY24. The company has introduced two chocolate brands, Hanobar and Havia in FY24 which analysts believe to be margin and value accretive in the medium-term.

4. HDFC Asset Management:

KRChoksey maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this asset management company with a target price of Rs 4,235, indicating an upside of 12.3%. In Q4FY24, the company’s net profit increased 43.8% YoY to Rs 540.8 crore, and its revenue went up by 33.5% YoY to Rs 851.3 crore. Analyst Unnati Jadhav is upbeat as assets under management went up 39.1% YoY to Rs 60,730 crore driven by a higher tilt toward equity-oriented assets. In FY24, the company expanded its product offerings by launching five new funds. Also, it has enhanced its passive front by launching five index funds and two ETFs. 

According to the management, the employee cost for FY24 increased by 13.0% YoY as it included an ESOP cost of Rs 47 crore. However, Jadhav is optimistic as management expects ESOP costs to reduce in FY25 to Rs 20 crore. At the same time, she believes that the company will continue to invest in its digital infrastructure to support its distribution partners. In FY25-26, Jadhav expects revenue and profit CAGR of 21.5% and 19.7% respectively.

5. Patel Engineering:

Hem Securities initiates a ‘Buy’ call on this construction and engineering company with a target price of Rs 80. This indicates an upside of 26.2%. The analyst Mudit Jain believes the firm’s order book of Rs 19,134 crore and its book-to-bill ratio of 4.3X provide multi-year revenue visibility.

Jain says, “Patel Engineering being the leader in hydroelectric EPC projects is expected to get a good amount of orders in this space.” The firm has 42 hydropower projects with an aggregate capacity of 18,034 MW under construction. He believes that around 27,000 MW of hydropower projects will be announced in the coming years and expects the company to win major orders from this pipeline.

Jain notes that the order inflow was muted during the quarter mainly due to the Lok Sabha elections. However, the management is confident that order awarding will be robust post elections. They have guided for 15-20% growth in the order book for FY25. The analyst expects the small-cap company to post decent numbers going forward on the back of increased execution, and expects order inflows to increase. 

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
29 Apr 2024
Market closes higher, ICICI Direct retains its 'Buy' rating on IndusInd Bank
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 22,643.40 (223.5, 1%), BSE Sensex closed at 74,635.11 (905.0, 1.2%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 20,992.20 (152.9, 0.7%). Market breadth is balanced. Of the 2,103 stocks traded today, 1,034 were in the positive territory and 1,019 were negative.

Indian indices extended their gains from the afternoon session and closed in the green. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose 12.1% and closed at 12.2 points. KPIT Technologies closed sharply higher after its Q4FY24 profit grew by 5.9% QoQ to Rs 165.9 crore and revenue increased by 4.6% QoQ. The European region contributed the most towards the company’s revenue growth.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green but underperformed the benchmark index. Nifty Energy and Nifty Bank closed higher than their Friday close. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Telecommunications Equipment emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 2.6%.

European indices traded in the green, taking cues from the Asian indices. US index futures traded higher, indicating a positive start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures traded marginally lower after rising 1.1% on a volatile day on Friday.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that stocks like Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Voltas, Aegis Logistics and Aditya Birla Capital are in the overbought zone.

  • ICICI Direct retains its 'Buy' rating on IndusInd Bank with an upgraded target price of Rs 1,850, indicating a potential upside of 24.6%. The brokerage forecasts an increase in the bank’s revenue, driven by improved granularity in assets and liabilities, growth in the new retail and SMSE segments, and strong asset quality. It expects the bank's net interest income (NII) to grow at a CAGR of 17% over FY24-26.

  • Metals & mining, telecommunications equipment, and fertilizerssectors rise more than 15% in the past month.

  • Mahindra Lifespace Developers falls sharply as its revenue plunges by 94.4% YoY to Rs 14.3 crore in Q4FY24, impacted by the projects, project management, and development segments. However, net profit surges 134.9 times YoY, driven by a decrease in raw material costs. The company features in a screener of stocks that have underperformed their industries in the past quarter.

  • HSBC Global Research downgrades its rating on SBI Cards and Payment Services to ‘Reduce’ and cuts the target price to Rs 650 due to higher credit costs and asset quality pressures. SBI Cards’ Q4FY24 net profit rises 11% YoY to Rs 662.4 crore, and revenue increases 15.5% YoY. Credit costs grow 50% YoY during the quarter.

  • Shakti Pumps (India) hits the upper circuit as profit rises to Rs 89.7 crore in Q4FY24 from Rs 2.2 crore in Q4FY23. Its revenue grows by 233% YoY to Rs 610.1 crore on the back of Indian operations, while revenue from overseas operations falls. The company appears in a screener for stocks with low debt.

  • KPIT Technologies rises as its Q4FY24 profit grows by 5.9% QoQ to Rs 165.9 crore and revenue increases by 4.6% QoQ. The European region contributes the most towards revenue growth. The company appears in a screener for stocks with growth in net profit, with increasing profit margin.

  • Techno Electric & Engineering reaches a 52-week high of Rs 1,067.6 as it bags multiple orders worth Rs 4.063 crore from domestic entities. The orders include the establishment/execution of 765 kV substation packages for PowerGrid Corp and Adani Power, and the installation and operation of smart meters.

  • Sanjay Agarwal, MD of Au Small Finance Bank, highlights the bank’s target to double its balance sheet size to Rs 2.5 lakh crore in three years. He says this will be driven by the merger with Fincare SFB and the country’s growing consumption trend.

  • PSU bank stocks like Bank of India, Union Bank of India, Indian Bank and Central Bank of India are rising in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty PSU Bank are also trading in the green, helping the index touch its all-time high of 7,502.6.

  • Multi Commodity Exchange of India is falling as the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) demands the company to pay a higher regulatory fee based on the annual turnover, including the notional value of options contracts.

  • Yes Bank rises sharply as its net profit surges by 123.2% YoY to Rs 451.9 crore in Q4FY24, helped by a reduction in provisions and a tax return, compared to a tax expense in Q4FY23. Revenue increases by 19.8% YoY due to improvements in the treasury, corporate, and retail banking segments. The bank’s asset quality also improves, with gross and net NPAs contracting by 50 bps and 20 bps YoY, respectively.

  • IREDA is rising as it receives the 'Navaratna' status from the Centre’s Department of Public Enterprises. Pradip Kumar Das, the CMD, says the company’s next target is to achieve the Maharatna status. He adds that the firm aims to continue 30% revenue growth, and expects the share of emerging businesses to increase to 45-50%.

  • Gland Pharma receives US FDA approval for Cetrorelix Acetate for Injection, a bioequivalent and therapeutically equivalent of Cetrotide, used to prevent premature LH surges. It has annual sales of approx $129 million.

  • Ircon International rises as its joint venture with Dineshchandra R Agrawal Infracon wins a construction order worth Rs 1,198.1 crore from East Coast Railway.

  • Apollo Hospitals Enterprise falls sharply as its board approves a Rs 2,475 crore investment in its subsidiary, Apollo Hospitals Co. by Advent International. Apollo Hospitals Co, in turn, acquires an 11.2% stake in Keimed for Rs 625.4 crore.

  • Amit Kumar Sinha, the CEO of Mahindra Lifespace Developers, says Q4 has been a strong quarter for the company in terms of pre-sales. He adds that the new launch in Kandivali, Mumbai, has driven bookings. Sinha also expects the company to exceed the FY25 guidance of Rs 2,500 crore in terms of bookings.

  • BSE falls after SEBI orders the company to pay a regulatory fee on the annual turnover, including the options contract fee.

  • IDFC First Bank falls sharply as its net profit declines by 9.8% YoY to Rs 724.4 crore in Q4FY24. However, revenue increases by 27.9% YoY to Rs 8,219.2 crore, driven by loans and advancements. The bank's asset quality is also improving, with gross and net NPAs contracting by 63 bps and 26 bps YoY, respectively. It appears in a screener of stocks with high interest payments compared to earnings.

  • Glenmark Pharmaceuticals receives US FDA approval for Acetaminophen and Ibuprofen tablets. Acetaminophen, a bioequivalent to Advil, has annual sales of $84.1 million.

  • Morgan Stanley maintains its ‘Overweight’ rating on InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) with an upgraded target price of Rs 4,615. The brokerage believes that the company has a large and sustainable moat. It expects a ramp-up in outbound travel and sees an expansion in the domestic and international markets to 370 million passengers in FY30.

  • ATC Telecom Infrastructure sells a 2.2% stake in Vodafone Idea for approx Rs 1,840.3 crore in a bulk deal on Friday.

  • ICICI Bank reaches its all-time high of Rs 1,131.7 as its net profit grows by 17.4% YoY to Rs 10,707.5 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue increases by 22.3% YoY to Rs 37,948.4 crore, driven by improvements in the deposits, domestic loans, retail loans, and business banking segments. It features in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue over the past eight quarters.

  • Maruti Suzuki is rising as its net profit surges 47.1% YoY to Rs 3,952.3 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue increases by 19.1% YoY to Rs 36,694.2 crore, helped by the domestic and export markets. It appears in a screener of stocks with growth in net profit and profit margin (QoQ).

  • HCL Technologies is falling as its net profit declines 8.4% QoQ to Rs 3,986 crore in Q4FY24 due to higher inventory, employee benefits and finance costs. Revenue remains flat at Rs 28,499 crore, with growth in the IT & business services segment offset by reductions in the engineering & R&D services and HCL software segments. It features in a screener of stocks where mutual funds have reduced their shareholding in the past quarter.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 22,491.05 (71.1, 0.3%), BSE Sensex was trading at 73,981.92 (251.8, 0.3%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 20,916.45 (77.1, 0.4%).

  • Market breadth is overwhelmingly positive. Of the 1,910 stocks traded today, 1,585 were gainers and 268 were losers.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Supreme Industries Ltd. (4,955.15, 14.2%), Au Small Finance Bank Ltd. (637.95, 6.4%) and Indian Bank (559.05, 6.2%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include HCL Technologies Ltd. (1,387.40, -5.9%), Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. (5,968.35, -4.6%) and Vodafone Idea Ltd. (13.45, -3.9%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

35 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Supreme Industries Ltd. (4,955.15, 14.2%), Jamna Auto Industries Ltd. (141.75, 7.3%) and JBM Auto Ltd. (1,907.50, 7.1%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were HCL Technologies Ltd. (1,387.40, -5.9%), Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. (5,968.35, -4.6%) and IDFC Ltd. (121.65, -4.4%).

BLS International Services Ltd. (349.95, 6.2%) was trading at 10.2 times of weekly average. AIA Engineering Ltd. (3,771.85, -3.4%) and Vaibhav Global Ltd. (425.30, 6.1%) were trading with volumes 10.1 and 6.9 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

42 stocks made 52 week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Aegis Logistics Ltd. (696.15, 9.5%), Axis Bank Ltd. (1,159.25, 2.6%) and Bank of Maharashtra (71.05, 5.0%).

16 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Vaibhav Global Ltd. (425.30, 6.1%) and Finolex Cables Ltd. (1,035.05, 3.1%). 8 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Craftsman Automation Ltd. (4,423.50, -5.6%) and IDFC Ltd. (121.65, -4.4%).

 
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The Baseline
26 Apr 2024
India is ignoring a critical piece of its growth story | Stocks where promoters cut their stake this quarter

Recently a friend made a guilty, late-night Swiggy food order. The order got marked as delivered but nothing arrived. Hungry and frustrated, she contacted Swiggy and got a refund.

But an hour later, a neighbour knocked on her door and handed her the parcel, which had been accidentally left outside his apartment. There was no option to reverse the refund on the Swiggy app.

The next day, a well-spoken young man turned up at her door in a panic. It was the Swiggy delivery person - he had been penalized the refund amount (Rs. 500). She gave him the money but was struck by his anxiety. This was money, he said, that he did not have. An amount that was small for her - a manager at Titan - was a lot for him.

The question for us is why there are so many like him, and so few like her. We see many young Indians working difficult, low-paying jobs in delivery, logistics, construction.   

This election, PM Narendra Modi is pitching to voters for another term. He insists that he is the best choice for a young, aspirational country. Some of the successes the government claims are indeed very real. Since 2014, India has seen 54,000 kilometres of new national highways built. The number of Indians taking flights has doubled to 200 million in the last decade. The government has invested in both physical and digital infrastructure, with flyovers, metro lines, electrification, direct cash transfers, UPI, and telecom connectivity. It's a big deal for a country that had become used to potholes and power cuts. 

But even with this progress, there are many questions. In the recent Lokniti-CDS survey of 10,000 voters across 19 Indian states, unemployment was the top worry for 27%, and 62% said that finding a job had become even harder in the past five years. India's unemployment rate, which hovers around 8% according to the private institution CMIE, is higher than other Asian economies at a comparable development stage.

We are often referred to as a young country that will be the 'world's next workforce'. But our youth boom is challenging India's policy makers: how are we going to provide these hundreds of millions of young people with jobs, and add to India's productivity and growth?

In this week's Analyticks:

Youth boom, yes. Job boom, no: India needs to ramp up on job creation, fast

Screener: Promoters selling stakes in their companies in the latest quarter

A youthful country, looking for work

When tourists visit India, they often remark on how visibly young the country looks. The median age of Indians is 29, compared to 39 in the US and 40 in China. Nearly half of our population is under the age of 25. 

India's youth is not evenly spread out across the country. Many of India's young people are now in the north. 

Over the last two decades, a big shift has happened in the Indian economy - the south and west of the country, which have long been the main drivers of growth, have grown older.

Population shifts put more young people in poorer states

The south and west of India still dominate in GDP contribution to the economy, and in GDP per capita. The Hindi heartland states, which have the youngest populations (UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan) have a low industrial base, making this a low GDP-per-capita region. 

Young people in the poorer states also have to deal with weaker educational infrastructure, resulting in low education levels. For example, nearly half of Tamil Nadu’s 18-to-23-year-olds are in higher education, compared with 17% in Bihar.

And while more Indians than ever before are finishing school, recruiters are finding major quality problems while hiring, with learning deficits that make many unemployable. The youth unemployment rate for Indians who cannot read or write is 3.4%. But the unemployment rate is 6X more for those who have completed secondary education (18.4%), and 9X more for college graduates (29.1%).

A digital skills survey showed large percentages of Indians unable to complete basic digital tasks.

At present, 83% of India's unemployed are young people, and 90% of workers are in informal work. States like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and MP have even higher unemployment levels - in Rajasthan for example, youth unemployment is estimated at 30.2%. The result of this is 3,700 PhD holders, 5,000 graduates and 28,000 postgraduates applying for 62 posts of “peon” in the Uttar Pradesh Police Department. 

To avoid a crisis, this needs to change fast. India's government sector employs only 5% of the population, so private job creation is key. In addition to building up our manufacturing base, India is providing subsidies to large companies through efforts like PLI schemes. But it needs to do more for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which are labour intensive and job creators, but were hit hard by demonetization in 2016 and the pandemic in 2020. 

But the problem is not just in the supply of jobs, but also the quality of people looking for work. So most of all, India needs to take a U-turn in its school and health policies, and raise funding here. This is crucial to build the innovators and entrepreneurs who create jobs, and the high skilled workers who attract investment.

Foreign investment has lots of countries competing for it right now - India, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia - and it will go where there is high-quality human capital. If we don't focus on education and health, we are doing India's youth a great disservice, condemning them to bad schools and indifferent jobs. 

But we will have to act quickly. Because the youth dividend, as China and the US already know, doesn't last long.  

Screener: Stocks with reduced promoter holding in Q4FY24

With the end of the last quarter of FY24, we take a look at stocks where promoters sold the most stakes during the quarter. This screener shows stocks that saw a decline in promoter holding over Q4FY24. 

There may be many reasons for a drop in promoter holdings, but investors often see it as signalling a lack of confidence in future growth. So promoter sales can trigger selling from other investors. Promoters may also sell their stake to earn profits when shares have risen sharply.

The screener is dominated by banking & finance, software & services, realty, metals & mining and pharmaceuticals & biotechnology. Major stocks that appear in the screener are Whirlpool of India, Aavas Financiers, Swan Energy, Suven Pharmaceuticals, Shyam Metalics and Energy, NLC India, InterGlobe Aviation and Samvardhana Motherson International.

Whirlpool of India’s promoters sold a 24% stake in the company during Q4FY24, the most among the Nifty 500 index. This takes the company’s promoter holding down to 51% in Q4FY24. The promoters plan to use the proceeds from the sale to repay a $500 million term loan. The sold shares were bought by mutual funds as they invested in a 21% stake in the company. SBI Small Cap Fund bought a 9.7% stake, the most among other mutual funds, in the company. The company’s stock price has underperformed the consumer electronics industry by 7.1 percentage points in the past quarter, despite rising by 15.8% in the same period.

You can find more screeners here.

 
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The Baseline
26 Apr 2024
Five Interesting Stocks Today - April 26, 2024

1. Macrotech Developers (Lodha):

This realty company hit its all-time high of Rs 1,309.5 on Thursday before falling by 1.3% in today’s session. Its Q4FY24 results showed revenue growing by 24.8% YoY while profit fell 10.6% YoY to Rs 665.5 crore. Profit declined due to a rise in the cost of projects and increased depreciation & amortization expenses. Despite the fall, it beat Trendlyne Forecaster’s net profit estimate by 45.6% and revenue estimates by 9.6%. It reported a 340 bps growth in EBITDA margin to 33.4%.

Lodha achieved its estimated FY24 pre-sales growth of 20% and posted pre-sales of Rs 14,520 crore. Its pre-sales jumped 40% YoY in the quarter to Rs 4,230 crore and collections grew 20%. The Mumbai-based company’s business is focused in Tier-1 cities in Maharashtra, and the Mumbai region contributed 61.6% of its pre-sales while Pune contributed 24.5%. The firm is now diversifying its focus toward the south, and Bengaluru contributed around 8% of the pre-sales. The management expects to advance its ‘expansion stage’ in Bengaluru.

On the back of its strong operating cash flow generation and its recently raised Rs 3,300 crore via QIP, Macrotech Developers reduced its debt by 55% to Rs 3,010 crore, less than 0.2X the equity. Managing Director Abhishek Lodha said, “The sharp reduction in net debt has happened alongside the addition of new projects worth Rs 20,300 crore. This enhanced financial strength will give us the opportunity to accelerate margin and top-line growth.” The company has targeted a 20% sales booking CAGR over FY24-26, implying bookings worth Rs 21,000 crore in FY26. The firm appears in a screener for stocks with low debt.

ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Hold’ on Macrotech Developers based on its strong launch pipeline and new project additions. The brokerage is however cautious due to its higher-than-expected price growth. Over the past year, the company’s share price has grown by 167.5%, outperforming its industry by 26.8 percentage points. 

2. Axis Bank:

This banking & finance company surged 6% on Thursday following the announcement of CEO and Managing Director Amitabh Chaudhry's term extension by three years till December 31, 2027. Chaudhry, who joined the bank in January 2019 after leading HDFC Standard Life Insurance for nine years, is increasingly seen as instrumental for the bank's growth trajectory. The bank released its quarterly and annual results this week, which aligned with or beat estimates across all fronts.

In FY24, Axis Bank reported a 22% YoY increase in revenue to Rs 72,336 crore, slightly exceeding Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 1.7%. The bank's net profit for the fiscal year stood at Rs 24,861 crore, surpassing estimates by 4%. Its profit in FY24 is not comparable to the same in FY23 because of the acquisition of Citibank India's consumer banking business in March 2023. The company shows up in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue every quarter for the past eight quarters.

Additionally, the bank's board approved a fundraising plan of Rs 55,000 crore, with Rs 35,000 crore to be raised through debt and the remaining Rs 20,000 crore through equity. This capital infusion aims to strengthen the bank's financial position and support future growth efforts.

Commenting on the results, Amitabh Chaudhry said, “In FY24, we relentlessly focused on our key priority areas - Bharat Banking, Digital and Sparsh (our customer obsession program), I believe we were also nimble in picking up some enticing new opportunities that came our way.” He also highlighted the progress in integrating Citi's operations, which will complete within the next six months.

ICICI Securities reiterated its ‘Buy’ call on Axis Bank. They are optimistic as the bank posted an improvement in net interest margin by 5 bps QoQ to 4.6%, contrary to their expectation of a decline. With a target price of Rs 1,280, Axis Bank presents offers a potential upside of 13.2%.

3. Persistent Systems: 

This IT consulting & software company has fallen 11.6% over the past week. This comes after its Q4FY24 EBIT missed Trendlyne’s forecaster estimates by  4.2%. The EBIT margin flatlined at 14.5% as margin expansion was offset by lower resource utilisation, higher subcontractor costs and travel costs. The company’s management gave a flat margin guidance for FY25. 

Sandeep Kalra, the CEO acknowledged the weak numbers, and said, “We will be working towards improving utilization, onsite-offshore mix, and other operational efficiencies to achieve our medium-term target of improving margins by 200-300 basis points over the next 3 years”.

In Q4FY24, Persistent Systems’ net profit grew 1% QoQ to Rs 315.3 crore, driven by lower finance costs. Its revenue also increased 3.7% QoQ to Rs 2,590.5 crore, led by growth in its BFSI (which constitutes around 31% of its total revenue) and healthcare (24% of the revenue pie). The software, hi-tech, and emerging industries (45.1% of the revenue) weakened during the quarter. Both net profit and revenue however, beat estimates.

The company has outperformed its larger IT peers in revenue growth. For instance, Infosys reported a 2.3% QoQ degrowth in revenue during the quarter, while TCS’ was up 1.1% QoQ. 

In terms of geographies, North America and India revenue grew by 4% and 4.5% QoQ while Europe declined 9.3% QoQ. In contrast, Infosys’ North America revenue declined by 2.2% QoQ. During the quarter, Persistent’s total contract value (TCVs) stood at Rs 44.8 crore. The company also highlighted that there has been no deal re-negotiation. 

Post the company’s results, Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating and lowers the target price to Rs 4,510. The brokerage says the company’s commentary on maintaining EBIT margin at the current level for FY25 via investments in building sales and marketing capacity as well as building next-gen technology assets, including the AI domain, is likely to place an upper limit on the profitability. 

4. Hindustan Zinc:

This zinc company has been on a rally, rising by 42.4% over the past month.  However, the stock fell by 1.5% on April 19 after it posted a 21.1% YoY decline in its net profit to Rs 2,038 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue also decreased by 12% YoY to Rs 7,285 crore during the quarter. The company’s revenue missed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 5.8%, but net profit beat estimates by 1.9%. It shows up in a screener of stocks with high promoter pledges.

Revenue fell on account of significantly lower zinc & lead prices and lower lead volumes, which was partially offset by an increase in silver and zinc volumes. On an annual basis, the company’s refined zinc production was marginally down YoY, while refined lead production was up 3% YOY. The increase in lead production was due to the company adopting pyro operations which increases the value of lead ores. 

The company has set a capex of Rs 2,249.7-2,708 crore for FY25. Part of the capex will be used for the undergoing expansion of its 160 kt roaster in Debari which is expected to be completed by Q4FY25. The remaining will be used for the 510kt fertilizer plant in Chanderiya which will be commissioned by FY26. Speaking after the results, Amit Misra, CEO of the company said, “Our FY25 volume growth guidance for mined metal production is set at 4-6.5% YoY, refined metal production at 4-6% and saleable silver production at 0.5-4%.”

The sharp rise in the stock’s share price prior to results came in reaction to the company reaching its highest-ever production numbers for zinc and silver production in its FY24 business update, and a surge in zinc prices (up 17.4% in April 2024). Zinc prices had fallen by 13% in 2023, contributing to the fall in the company’s revenues. But prices have been on a recovery in 2024, rising by 9.5% so far. With its rise in production, the company has become the 2nd largest producer of zinc and the 3rd largest producer of silver globally. The company has also incorporated a subsidiary to discover and develop mineral blocks, which will produce lead alloys and other critical minerals listed by the government.

Post results, Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock with an upgraded target price of Rs 370 per share. The brokerage states that the company’s performance has been in line with its estimates. It also believes that the company’s focus on improving production with tight cost control will boost profitability. It expects the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 16.7% over FY24-26.

5. Laurus Labs

This pharma company rose by 2.6% today post its result announcement. The firm beat Trendlyne Forecaster estimates for Q4FY24 for revenue by 2.1%, however missed the net profit estimate by 37%. For Q4FY24, the company’s net profit fell by 26.6% YoY to Rs 75 crore on the back of rise in raw material and employee expenses, while its revenue rose by 4.3% YoY. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with annual net profit declining for the last 2 years.

The company’s API business contributed more than half of the revenue and saw a growth of 30%. Its formulations or FDF business saw continued volume-led recovery in Antiretrovirals (ARV), and stable pricing despite market challenges. Spends were high compared to last year partly due to additional spend towards Competitive Generic Therapies (CGT) space. 

The company’s management expects EBITDA margins to improve in FY25 as they are prioritizing capex into high value and growing market segments. For FY24, net capex was reported at Rs 700 crore (14% of the revenue). The management also notes that their $100 million CDMO investments are on track and they are planning an R&D center coming on line by June 2024 end. Laurus has recently inked a pact with Slovenia-based drug maker Krka to set up a joint venture firm in Hyderabad. Krka will hold a 51% stake and Laurus 49% share in the joint venture. 

The company’s management says that at least two products are under preparation for the US market and they have launched one in Q4. V V Ravi Kumar, Executive Director & Chief Financial Officer, said: “Overall FY24 was challenging, driven by selling price decline in antiretroviral (ARV) products and absence of large purchase orders (PO). Despite operational challenges, our committed capacity built-up is on track as is our focus on productivity improvement.”

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on Laurus Labs with a "sell" rating and a price target of Rs. 350, with a “Sell” rating. According to the brokerage, shares of Laurus Labs may fall as much as 23% over the next 12 months as it thinks that its segments lack immediate growth catalysts.



Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
26 Apr 2024
Market closes lower, Vedanta's net profit falls 27.4% YoY to Rs 2,275 crore in Q4FY24
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 22,419.95 (-150.4, -0.7%), BSE Sensex closed at 73,730.16 (-609.3, -0.8%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 20,839.35 (-28.6, -0.1%). Market breadth is horizontal. Of the 2,058 stocks traded today, 993 were in the positive territory and 1,020 were negative.

Indian indices maintained the losses from the afternoon session and closed in the red. The volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose by 1.7% and closed at 10.9 points. Bank of Maharashtra’s net profit surged by 45% YoY to Rs 1,217.7 crore in Q4FY24, helped by a reduction in provisions. Revenue grew by 21.6% YoY, driven by improvements in the treasury operations, retail, and corporate banking segments.

Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 closed higher, with the benchmark index closing lower. Nifty IT and Nifty Media closed higher than Thursday’s closing level. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, fertilizers emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of over 2.1%. 

Most European indices trade in the green. US indices futures trade higher, indicating a positive start. The provisional data indicated that the US GDP increased by 1.6% in Q1 against estimates of 2.5% growth.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like Aegis Logistics, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Just Dial and Cello World are in the overbought zone.

  • CSB Bank falls sharply as its Q4FY24 net profit declines 3.1% YoY to Rs 1,514.6 crore due to higher operating expenses. However, revenue rises 24.9% YoY to Rs 7,948.7 crore, driven by growth in the treasury, corporate, and retail banking segments.

  • Vedanta rises sharply as its net profit, despite falling by 27.4% YoY to Rs 2,275 crore in Q4FY24, beats Forecaster estimates by 13.8%. Revenue decreases by 6.1% YoY to Rs 34,937 crore, due to reductions in the zinc, aluminium, copper, and power segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with declining revenue for the past two quarters.

  • According to S&P Global, the RBI's intervention with Kotak Mahindra Bank may slow its credit growth and profitability, forcing the bank to rely more on developing its physical branch network. The agency has granted the bank a BBB-/Stable/A-3 rating and claims that the move will have no effect on its rating. S&P Global highlights that the bank may continue to cross-sell its other products to existing clients.

  • Bank of Maharashtra rises sharply as its net profit surges by 45% YoY to Rs 1,217.7 crore in Q4FY24, helped by a reduction in provisions. Revenue grows by 21.6% YoY, driven by improvements in the treasury operations, retail, and corporate banking segments. The bank's asset quality improves as its gross and net NPAs contract by 59 bps and 5 bps YoY, respectively, during the quarter.

  • Zensar Technologies is rising its Q4FY24 net profit increases 7.2% QoQ to Rs 173.3 crore, driven by lower finance costs and depreciation expenses. Its revenue is up 2.1% QoQ due to growth in the digital & application, and digital foundation services segments.

  • KPI Green Energy falls sharply as its net profit declines by 15% QoQ, despite growing by 35.4% YoY to Rs 43 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue increases by 58.6% YoY to Rs 289.4 crore, driven by improved sales of plots, power, and captive power projects. It features in a screener of stocks that have outperformed their industries in the past quarter.

  • Aditya Jajodia, Chairman & Director of Jai Balaji Industries, states that the company's focus remains on expansion and value-added products, expecting them to constitute around 80-85% of total sales over the next few quarters. He highlights the company’s potential FY27 revenue of Rs 10,000 crore with margins around 18%. Jajodia adds that the firm will be net debt-free within 15 months.

  • Can Fin Homes, Birlasoft, and Gillette India’s weekly average delivery volumes rise ahead of their Q4FY24 results on Monday.

  • Consumer durables stocks like Dixon Technologies, Havells India, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, and Bata India are rising in trade. This helps the broader Nifty Consumer Durables index to touch its all-time high of 34,537.9.

  • Motilal Oswal keeps its 'Buy' rating on Equitas Small Finance Bank with an upgraded target price of Rs 125 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 25.9%. The brokerage expects the bank's slippage to reduce on the back of an improvement in collection efficiency. It expects the bank's net interest income to grow at a CAGR of 14.9% over FY24-26.

  • Metals & mining, general industrials, transportation, consumer durables, fertilizers, and telecommunications equipment sectors surge more than 5% over the past week.

  • Dr. Vikas Gupta, CEO of Alkem Labs, says that the domestic market remains their core focus and expects continued growth there. He anticipates that the company's dependence on China will decrease as more players enter the Indian market. He also notes that pricing erosion in the US has stabilized, and they are now looking for opportunities to boost their growth.

  • Media stocks like Sun TV Network, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, PVR Inox, and Saregama India are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index Nifty Media is also trading in the green.

  • UTI Asset Management surges to its 52-week high of Rs 1,005 as its net profit grows by 53.9% YoY to Rs 151.3 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue increases by 24.4% YoY to Rs 327.5 crore during the quarter. It appears in a screener of stocks with improving cash flow from operations over the past two years.

  • Foreign institutional investors divest Rs 1,077 crore in the equity market over the past week, according to Trendlyne's FII dashboard. Index options witness the highest outflow of Rs 34,503.7 crore from foreign investors. Meanwhile, mutual funds are net buyers in the equity market, injecting Rs 4,636.5 crore during the same period.

  • InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) is rising as it places an order for 30 Airbus A350-900 aircraft. This marks the company's entry into the wide-body aircraft space and will enable further expansion of its network.

  • IndusInd Bank is falling as its net profit, despite growing by 15% YoY to Rs 2,346.8 crore in Q4FY24, misses Forecaster estimates by 2%, helped by a reduction in provisions. Revenue increases by 21.7% YoY due to improvements in the treasury operations, corporate, and retail segments. The bank’s asset quality improves as its gross and net NPAs contract by 8 bps and 2 bps YoY, respectively.

  • Vodafone Idea is falling as 2.8% equity (185 crore shares), worth approximately Rs 2,000 crore reportedly changes hands in multiple block deals. ATC Telecom Infra is a likely seller in the transaction.

  • Schaeffler India is falling as its Q4FY24 net profit, despite a marginal growth of 0.2% YoY to Rs 219.7 crore, misses estimates by 9.3%. Its revenue, however, rises by 10.6% YoY to Rs 1,873.1 crore, driven by growth in the automotive technologies, vehicle lifetime solutions, and bearings segments.

  • Goldman Sachs maintains its ‘Neutral’ rating on Nestle India and raises the target price to Rs 2,550. The brokerage highlights the company’s strong earnings in Q4, driven by margin expansion. It also notes the potential benefits from Dr. Reddy’s medical representative network.

  • L&T Technology Services plunges as its net profit, despite growing by 1.4% QoQ to Rs 340.9 crore in Q4FY24, misses estimates by 4.9%. Revenue increases by 4.4% QoQ to Rs 2,593.5 crore, thanks to improvements in the transportation, plant engineering, and telecom & high-tech segments. It features in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue for the past eight quarters.

  • Bajaj Finance falls sharply as its net profit, despite growing by 21.1% YoY to Rs 3,842.5 crore in Q4FY24, misses Forecaster estimates by 12.5%. Revenue increases by 31.4% YoY to Rs 14,932 crore due to an improvement in assets under management (AUM). It appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds decreased their shareholding in the past quarter.

  • Sandur Manganese & Iron Ores rises sharply as it acquires an 80% stake in Arjas Steel at an enterprise value of Rs 3,000 crore.

  • Tech Mahindra rises sharply as its net profit grows by 29.5% QoQ to Rs 661 crore in Q4FY24, owing to reduced employee benefits expenses. Revenue declines by 1.8% QoQ to Rs 12,871.3 crore due to a fall in the IT and BPO segments. It features in a screener of stocks where FIIs have increased their shareholding.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 22,585.10 (14.8, 0.1%), BSE Sensex was trading at 74,509.31 (169.9, 0.2%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 20,910.30 (42.4, 0.2%).

  • Market breadth is ticking up strongly. Of the 1,808 stocks traded today, 1,305 were in the positive territory and 440 were negative.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Tech Mahindra Ltd. (1,278.75, 7.4%), Coromandel International Ltd. (1,184.50, 6.5%) and Container Corporation of India Ltd. (1,068, 6.3%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include L&T Technology Services Ltd. (4,778.10, -7.8%), Bajaj Finance Ltd. (6,731.20, -7.7%) and Bajaj Finserv Ltd. (1,597.35, -3.5%).

Volume Shockers

42 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd. (228.10, 12.3%), Zensar Technologies Ltd. (620.75, 8.0%) and The New India Assurance Company Ltd. (244.70, 7.8%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were L&T Technology Services Ltd. (4,778.10, -7.8%), Bajaj Finance Ltd. (6,731.20, -7.7%) and CSB Bank Ltd. (384.10, -5.1%).

Westlife Foodworld Ltd. (886.65, 7.8%) was trading at 13.1 times of weekly average. DCM Shriram Ltd. (956.55, 5.8%) and Tech Mahindra Ltd. (1,278.75, 7.4%) were trading with volumes 12.6 and 10.1 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

48 stocks overperformed with 52 week highs, while 1 stock hit their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Aegis Logistics Ltd. (635.65, 5.9%), Bharat Electronics Ltd. (238.95, 0.6%) and Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. (278.85, 2.7%).

Stock making new 52 weeks lows included - Sheela Foam Ltd. (905.10, -2.2%).

13 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Westlife Foodworld Ltd. (886.65, 7.8%) and Tech Mahindra Ltd. (1,278.75, 7.4%). 14 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including L&T Technology Services Ltd. (4,778.10, -7.8%) and Bajaj Finance Ltd. (6,731.20, -7.7%).

 
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The Baseline
25 Apr 2024
By Satyam Kumar

In FY24, a rising Indian equity market saw net foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows amounting to $25.3 billion (approx. two lakh crore), surpassing other emerging market peers, as reported in RBI’s ‘State of the Economy’. Sectors like capital goods, consumer services, automobiles, and financial services emerged as top choices for FPI investments, collectively accounting for over 60% of the total foreign inflows, according to NSDL data. This trend underscores the importance of FPI activity as a measure for retail investors seeking insights into strong-performing sectors.

In this Chart of the Week, we take a look at sectors with the highest FPI activity in FY24. Throughout the year, FPIs consistently poured money into capital goods companies, with a total inflow of Rs 46,935 crore. The consumer services sector was the second favourite among FPIs with a net investment of Rs 32,186 crore. 

Metals and mining, on the other hand, witnessed the highest FPI outflow of Rs 8,531 crore in FY24. The FMCG sector saw cyclical FPI investments: an inflow of Rs 10,621 crore from April to July 2023, followed by a divestment of Rs 15,521 crore from August 2023 to February 2024, influenced by El Niño conditions and rural consumption worries.

Capital goods, auto and consumer services emerge as favourites

More than half of the total investment of around Rs 2 lakh crore by FPIs went into capital goods, auto and consumer services sectors. Capital goods companies have benefited from a robust order backlog and a steady inflow of fresh orders. This growth was supported by higher commodity prices and increased government infrastructure spending, as well as production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes.

Consumer services ranked second in FPI interest, with heavy inflows in the final two months, with FPIs purchasing stocks worth Rs 12,179 crore in February and March. Auto stocks also caught the attention of FPIs, attracting investments worth Rs 29,862 crore in FY24. This was propelled by strong OEM sales, new product launches, and favourable raw material prices, all of which gave profit margins a boost.

The financial services sector was doing quite well until interest rates went steadily higher and the RBI tightened loan requirements in November 2023. The sector observed mixed FPI inflows, with inflow of Rs 51,947 crore in H1FY24, followed by an outflow of Rs 23,154 crore in H2FY24. In the past year, public sector banks also garnered attention as analysts highlighted their cheap valuation compared to private banks.

Healthcare and Telecom witness rapid expansion amid positive consumer sentiment

The healthcare sector, comprising the pharma and hospitals industry, witnessed an inflow of Rs 16,687 crore in FY24. The pharma industry's growth was driven by international market launches, steady domestic operations, and improved margins. Similarly, hospitals saw increased bed occupancy and growth in average revenue per occupied bed, alongside steady capacity additions, leading to higher net income and revenue visibility. 

FPIs were net buyers worth Rs 15,277 crore in the telecom sector in FY24, supported by healthy subscriber additions and a gradual uptick in average revenue per user (ARPU). However, sector performance consolidated due to marginal expansion in ARPU, due to the absence of price hikes in the past year. Also, added capex costs with the 5G rollout and network densification kept debt levels elevated giving rise to higher finance costs.

IT and FMCG sectors see muted investment

FPIs injected a net amount of Rs 5,931 crore into the information technology (IT) sector in FY24. This inflow is comparatively lower than other sectors as hiring at IT companies was at all-time lows during the past year, as margins grew stressed and clients renegotiated contracts. Indian tech firms, particularly IT services companies, faced pressure due to their reliance on the slowing North American market for over 60% of their revenue. 

The FMCG sector also saw muted investor interest as FPIs added stocks worth Rs 1,341 crore in FY24. Topline growth remains muted due to subdued demand, particularly in the mass end of the segment. Lower crop yields after a below-average monsoon have affected rural demand.

Oil and metals sectors see net FPI outflow in FY24

The oil & gas sector saw a net selling of Rs 5,774 crore in FY24. Market volatility resulting from OPEC cuts and geopolitical factors, such as supply chain disruptions due to the Israel-Hamas conflict and drone attacks on Russian oil refineries by Ukraine, contributed significantly to this trend. Brent Crude futures have risen by 13.4% year-to-date.

Lastly, the metals and mining sector saw the highest FPI outflow of Rs 8,531 crore in FY24. Indian companies in this sector face major hurdles because of the dumping of steel at cheaper rates and sub-standard imports from China. Here, dumping refers to an abrupt increase in supply, which was seen from April to July 2023, where steel imports from China to India rose 62% YoY.  However, the government took measures to curb Chinese imports in September 2023, where they imposed a five-year anti-dumping duty targeting specific types of Chinese steel. Anti-dumping duty is a tax levied on imported goods that the government believes are priced below fair market value. The industry is also expected to address production gaps in 2024 and reduce dependence on imports, supported by policy reforms, incentives, and large-scale expansion plans by industry giants such as Tata Steel, Vedanta, and JSW Steel.

These FPI trends in different sectors reflect both global economic factors and sector-specific challenges in India, highlighting the importance of understanding market dynamics for investors to make better investment decisions. Looking ahead, developments in sectors such as IT, finance and FMCG will be closely watched, as they navigate through higher interest rates and volatile customer spending.

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
25 Apr 2024
Market closes higher, Nestle India's net profit grows by 26.8% YoY to Rs 934.2 crore in Q4
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 22,570.35 (168.0, 0.8%), BSE Sensex closed at 74,339.44 (486.5, 0.7%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 20,867.90 (137.3, 0.7%). Market breadth is in the green. Of the 2,072 stocks traded today, 1,082 showed gains, and 950 showed losses.

Indian Indices extended their gains from the afternoon session and closed in the green. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose 4.4% and closed at 10.7 points. Indian Hotels Co closed sharply lower after its Q4FY24 net profit missed estimates by 3.7% despite growing by 27.3% YoY to Rs 417.8 crore.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green, taking cues from the benchmark index. Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Metal closed higher than their Wednesday close. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Commercial Services & Supplies emerged as the day's best-performing sector, with a rise of 1.9%.

Major Asian indices closed in the green, except for Japan’s Nikkei 225 index closing flat. European stocks traded mixed as investors awaited Q4FY24 earnings data from major companies. US index futures traded in the red, indicating a negative start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures traded lower after closing 0.4% lower on Wednesday.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that stocks like United Breweries, Whirlpool of India, Aegis Logistics and Amara Raja Energy & Mobility are in the overbought zone.

  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories is rising as it enters into an agreement with Nestle India to form a joint venture (JV) to manufacture and commercialise products in the medical nutrition, specialised nutrition, nutraceuticals, and supplements categories in India and other geographies.

  • Nestle India is rising as its net profit grows by 26.8% YoY to Rs 934.2 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue increases by 9% YoY to Rs 5,267.6 crore on the back of the confectionery, milk products and nutrition segments. It shows up in a screener of stocks nearing their 52-week highs with significant volumes.

  • PSU bank stocks like Indian Overseas Bank, Bank of India, State Bank of India and UCO Bank are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index, Nifty PSU Bank, is also trading in the green.

  • According to a CRISIL report, increasing severity and frequency of weather disturbances have led to frequent rises in vegetable prices in recent years. Despite making up only 15.5% of the food index, vegetables accounted for about 30% of food inflation in FY24. The fiscal year 2024 saw extreme volatility in vegetable prices, ranging from a low of -7.9% in May 2023 to a high of 37.4% in July 2023.

  • Orient Cement rises as reports suggest Aditya Birla Group is in the advanced stage of negotiation to buy the promoter's stake in the company.

  • JNK India's Rs 649.5 crore IPO gets bids for 5.2X the available 1.1 crore shares on offer on the third day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 2X the available 56.1 lakh shares on offer.

  • Inox Wind touches a new 52-week high of Rs 658.4 after its board approved a 3:1 bonus equity share issue. The record date will be announced later.

  • Abhishek Lodha, the incoming CEO of Macrotech Developers, says the company targets a 5-6% price growth and a 20% increase in pre-sales in FY25. He expects 10% of the volume growth from new locations and a total volume growth of 14% in FY25. He also highlights continued expansion plans across Mumbai, Pune and Bangalore.

  • ICICI Direct assigns a 'Buy' rating on Hindalco Industries with a target price of Rs 780 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 23.1%. The brokerage is optimistic on the back of strategic capacity expansions at Novelis and in Indian operations, and structural drivers in place for healthy aluminium demand. It expects the company's net profit to grow at a CAGR of 10.3% over FY24-26.

  • Au Small Finance Bank’s Q4FY24 net profit declines 12.7% YoY to Rs 370.7 crore due to stamp duty and transaction charges related to its merger with Fincare Small Finance Bank. However, its net interest income grows 24.4% YoY on the back of growth in the treasury, retail, and wholesale banking segments.

  • Jubilant Pharmova receives Form 483 with five observations from the US FDA after conducting an inspection at its radiopharmaceutical manufacturing facility in Canada.

  • The Department of Economic Affairs' (DEA) March review indicates that India's broad-based growth is boosting the global economy. The report notes that a slowing recession is helping global economic recovery. Additionally, the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) forecast of an above-average monsoon in 2024 is expected to improve harvests, reduce inflation concerns, and enhance the outlook for the next Kharif crop season.

  • Divi's Laboratories plans capacity addition at its manufacturing facility, with an estimated investment of Rs 650-700 crore to secure a long-term supply agreement with a customer. The proposed facility is expected to be operational by January 2027.

  • Indian Hotels Co is falling as its Q4FY24 net profit misses estimates by 3.7% despite growing by 27.3% YoY to Rs 417.8 crore. Its revenue rises 17.2% YoY to Rs 1,905.3 crore, driven by growth in revenue per available room (RevPAR).

  • Mas Financial Services rises sharply as its net profit grows by 22.5% YoY to Rs 68.1 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue increases by 23% YoY to Rs 329.5 crore, helped by improvements in assets under management (AUM) across the micro-enterprise, SME, two-wheeler, commercial vehicle, and salaried personal loan segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue over the past eight quarters.

  • BofA upgrades Bharat Forge to 'Buy' and raises the target price to Rs 1,450. The brokerage hikes the firm's EPS estimate by 7-15% for F25-26 to factor in the scaling up in defence & PV exports. BofA notes significant growth in the company’s three key business segments: defence, PV exports, and industrial casting.

  • Dalmia Bharat falls as its Q4FY24 profit decreases by 47.5% YoY to Rs 320 crore, despite a 12% YoY increase in revenue. The profit decline is due to a gain in Q4FY23, when the company recorded an extra Rs 529 crore from an associate and joint venture. The company appears in a screener for stocks that have received broker price or recommendation upgrades in the past month.

  • Canada Pension Plan Investment Board sells a 2.8% stake (2 crore shares) in Delhivery, for approximately Rs 906.4 crore in a block deal on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Capital Group Fund and Fidelity Group buy 2.2% and 0.5% stakes in the company.

  • Axis Bank rises sharply as it posts a net profit of Rs 7,129.7 crore in Q4FY24, compared to a net loss of Rs 5,728.4 crore in Q4FY23. Revenue increases by 25.2% YoY, driven by gains in the treasury, corporate and retail banking segments. The bank's asset quality also improves with gross and net NPAs contracting by 59 bps YoY and 8 bps YoY, respectively.

  • Praveen Kutty, the incoming MD & CEO of DCB Bank, guides net interest margins (NIMs) for FY25 to be between 3.65-3.75% and a credit cost of 0.3%. He also expects the return on assets (RoA) to reach 1% in FY25 on a steady-state basis. He notes that the bank's asset book will double in around three years.

  • LTIMindtree's Q4FY24 net profit decreases 5.9% QoQ to Rs 1,099.9 crore, with revenue down 1.5% YoY. However, FY24 saw a net profit increase of 3.9% YoY to Rs 4,582.1 crore, and revenue growth of 7.4% YoY. The board has recommended a final dividend of Rs 45 per share for FY24.

  • Happiest Minds Technologies acquires 100% equity share capital of PureSoftware Technologies for $94.5 million (Rs 779 crore). PureSoftware is a digital engineering & transformation services and solutions provider.

  • Kotak Mahindra Bank plunges as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) orders the bank to cease and desist onboarding new customers through its online and mobile banking channels, and issuing new credit cards. This follows the RBI's observation of deficiencies in the bank's income tax examination.

  • Hindustan Unilever is falling as its revenue declines by 1.6% YoY to Rs 15,013 crore in Q4FY24, impacted by the beauty & personal care segment. Net profit grows by 2% YoY to Rs 2,558 crore, helped by lower raw material costs. It features in a screener of stocks that have underperformed their industry in the past quarter.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 22,340.75 (-61.7, -0.3%), BSE Sensex was trading at 73,572.34 (-280.6, -0.4%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 20,706.75 (-23.9, -0.1%).

  • Market breadth is in the green. Of the 1,814 stocks traded today, 1,121 were on the uptick, and 623 were down.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Bharat Forge Ltd. (1,311.85, 7.4%), Aditya Birla Capital Ltd. (229.80, 6.2%) and Vodafone Idea Ltd. (13.90, 6.1%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. (1,642.45, -10.9%), Dalmia Bharat Ltd. (1,806.45, -8.0%) and Indian Hotels Company Ltd. (577.25, -5.1%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

29 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Hitachi Energy India Ltd. (9,329.50, 13.6%), Godfrey Phillips India Ltd. (3,449.70, 10.2%) and Bharat Forge Ltd. (1,311.85, 7.4%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. (1,642.45, -10.9%), Dalmia Bharat Ltd. (1,806.45, -8.0%) and Indian Hotels Company Ltd. (577.25, -5.1%).

Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Ltd. (270.90, -5%) was trading at 124.3 times of weekly average. Mas Financial Services Ltd. (308.70, 3.5%) and Jyothy Labs Ltd. (426.70, 1.2%) were trading with volumes 26.4 and 16.1 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

35 stocks took off, crossing 52 week highs, while 2 stocks tanked below their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Ambuja Cements Ltd. (638.35, -1.0%), Bharat Electronics Ltd. (237.60, 0.5%) and Canara Bank (616.85, 3.3%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. (1,642.45, -10.9%) and Dalmia Bharat Ltd. (1,806.45, -8.0%).

12 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Crisil Ltd. (4,354.05, 5.0%) and Fine Organic Industries Ltd. (4,560.80, 2.5%). 12 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. (1,642.45, -10.9%) and Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Ltd. (270.90, -5%).

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
24 Apr 2024
Market closes higher, Equitas Small Finance Bank's net profit rises by 9.3% YoY in Q4
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 22,402.40 (34.4, 0.2%), BSE Sensex closed at 73,852.94 (114.5, 0.2%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 20,730.65 (78, 0.4%). Of the 2071 stocks traded today, 1,237 were in the positive territory and 784 were negative.

Indian indices maintained the gains from the afternoon session and closed in the green. The volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose by 0.8% and closed at 10.3 points. US FDA concludes inspection at Zydus Lifescience injectable manufacturing site in Jarod after reporting 10 observations.

Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 closed lower following the benchmark index. Nifty Metal and Nifty Healthcare closed higher than Tuesday’s closing level. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, fertilizers emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of over 3.3%.

Most European indices trade in the green, except for Switzerland’s SMI trading lower. US indices futures trade flat, indicating a cautious start. The US provisional manufacturing PMI for April contracts to 49.9 against estimates of 52. Tesla's Q1 revenue declined 8.7% YoY to $21.3 billion, missing estimates by 4.1%.

  • ICICI Bank sees a short buildup in its April 25 future series as its open interest rises 25.1% with a put-call ratio of 0.6.

  • Equitas Small Finance Bank falls sharply as its net profit misses Forecaster estimates by 2.6% despite growing by 9.3% YoY to Rs 207.6 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue grows by 25% YoY during the quarter. The bank's asset quality improves as its gross and net NPAs decline by 15 bps YoY and 4 bps YoY. It appears in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue for the past four quarters.

  • Rail Vikas Nigam is rising as it has emerged as the lowest bidder, along with its JV partner KRDCL, for a project worth Rs 439 crore from Southern Railway. The contract includes the redevelopment of Thiruvananthapuram Central Railway Station, to be executed over 42 months.

  • Emkay initiates coverage on Bajaj Finance with a 'Buy' rating and target price of Rs 9,000 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 23.4%. The brokerage is positive on the stock on the back of its strong strategy execution and the listing of its housing subsidiary. It expects the company's net profit to grow at a CAGR of 21.4% over FY24-27.

  • Citi maintains a 'Buy' rating on Bharti Airtel and raises the target price to Rs 1,520. The brokerage expects the firm's FY26 average revenue per user (ARPU) to rise by 3% in FY26 and its EBITDA to improve by 1-2% by FY25-26 due to clarity on tariff hikes. The brokerage increases the valuations of Bharti Airtel's India mobile, homes, and enterprise segments.

  • Cyient DLM rises as its Q4FY24 profit increases 80.7% YoY to Rs 22.7 crore and revenue improves 34.1% YoY. EBITDA falls 100 bps due to an increase in administrative expenses. The company appears in a screener of stocks with growing profits for the past three quarters.

  • JNK India's Rs 649.5 crore IPO gets bids for 1X the available 1.1 crore shares on offer on the second day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 1.1X the available 56.1 lakh shares on offer.

  • ASK Automotive’s board approves a joint venture (JV) with Aisin Group Companies to market and sell IAM (independent after-market) parts for passenger cars.

  • United Breweries touches a 52-week high of Rs 2,026.2 following a 20% organic growth in Heineken's India revenue in the first quarter of 2024, driven by higher volume and a favourable price mix. Kingfisher Ultra and Heineken Silver led the company's premium portfolio's volume growth in the low-20s.

  • Multi Commodity Exchange of India is plunging as its Q4FY24 net profit misses Forecaster estimates by 20.4%, despite surging 16.1X YoY to Rs 87.9 crore, helped by reduced computer technology and communication expenses. Revenue increases by 35.4% YoY to Rs 181.1 crore, owing to an improvement in average daily turnover (ADTO).

  • 360 One Wam is rising as its net profit grows by 55.5% YoY to Rs 241 crore in Q4FY24. Its revenue increases by 45.8% YoY during the quarter due to improvement in the wealth and asset management segments. The company’s board approves an interim dividend of Rs 3.5 per share.

  • ICICI Prudential Life Insurance falls as its net profit dips 26% YoY to Rs 173.8 crore, while total income rises 96.5% YoY. The profit fall is due to an increase in net benefits paid. The company appears in a screener for stocks with low debt.

  • Rakesh Sharma, Executive Director of Bajaj Auto, says FY25 exports could be better than FY24 and expects a 7-8% growth in the domestic market this year. He notes that there is no divide between rural and urban markets of the Indian two-wheeler segment. He adds that their new Brazil plant will begin operations in June.

  • Sudarshan Chemical Industries touches a 52-week high of Rs 766.5 following the launch of Sumica Gold 42631, an effect pigment for coatings, plastics, and textiles. The product is now available in Indian and overseas markets.

  • GPT Infraprojects surges as it wins orders worth Rs 487 crore from Mumbai's Central Railway for the construction of a new BG line in the Solapur-Osmanabad section.

  • Tata Elxsi falls as its net profit declines by 4.6% QoQ to Rs 196.9 crore in Q4FY24 due to increased employee benefit expenses. Revenue decreases by 0.9% QoQ to Rs 905.9 crore, owing to a downturn in the software development & services segment. It appears in a screener of stocks that have underperformed their industry in the past quarter.

  • Under the government's production linked incentive (PLI) program, seven companies including Reliance Industries, Amara Raja Advanced Cell Technologies, JSW Neo Energy, and Waaree Energies, have submitted bids to produce advanced chemistry cells (ACC) with a capacity of 10 gigawatt-hours in the program's second round.

  • Metal stocks like Steel Authority of India, NMDC, Jindal Steel & Power and Hindalco Industries are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index, Nifty Metal, is also trading in the green.

  • Zydus Lifesciences falls as US FDA concludes inspection at the company's injectable manufacturing site in Jarod with 10 observations.

  • Puravankara is rising after being selected as the preferred developer for redeveloping a residential housing society in Pali Hill, Mumbai. The project's gross development value (GDV) is estimated at Rs 2,000 crore.

  • Shrinivas Kulkarni, Chief Financial Officer of Cyient DLM, forecasts over 30% revenue growth for FY25, with margins improving and ROCE expected to reach 15%, then 25%. He highlights benefits from the growth of India's Emergency Medical Services (EMS) industry. The company's Q4FY24 net profit surged by 80.7% YoY to Rs 22.7 crore, and revenue increased by 34.1% YoY.

  • Rama Steel Tubes rises sharply as its board of directors approves fundraising of Rs 500 crore through a follow-on public offer (FPO).

  • Welspun Corp wins an export contract worth Rs 611 crore to supply LSAW pipes, coating and bends in Latin America.

  • Radhakishan Damani's Derive Trading and Resorts buys a 3.4% stake in VST Industries through open market transactions on Friday.

  • Tata Consumer Products plunges as its net profit drops 19.3% YoY to Rs 216.6 crore in Q4FY24 due to rising raw material costs and employee benefits expenses. Revenue increases by 8.5% YoY to Rs 3,926.9 crore, helped by Indian and international markets. The company appears in a screener of stocks with negative profit growth and a QoQ decrease in promoter shareholding.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include United Breweries Ltd. (2,030.95, 9.2%), Steel Authority of India (SAIL) Ltd. (164.65, 8.1%) and Linde India Ltd. (8,245.15, 8.1%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Vodafone Idea Ltd. (13.10, -9.0%), Tata Consumer Products Ltd. (1,110.15, -5.4%) and Tata Elxsi Ltd. (7,030.15, -4.9%).

Volume Rockets

32 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Aegis Logistics Ltd. (595.95, 10.8%), Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd. (248.70, 10.8%) and Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation Ltd. (608.40, 9.8%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Tata Elxsi Ltd. (7,030.15, -4.9%), ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd. (575.65, -3.1%) and Sundram Fasteners Ltd. (1051.05, -1.8%).

United Breweries Ltd. (2030.95, 9.2%) was trading at 19.6 times of weekly average. Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd. (402.20, 5.7%) and Emami Ltd. (446.35, 1.4%) were trading with volumes 14.3 and 10.5 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

38 stocks overperformed with 52-week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Aegis Logistics Ltd. (595.95, 10.8%), Amara Raja Energy & Mobility Ltd. (1,133.30, -2.3%) and Ambuja Cements Ltd. (644.45, 1.2%).

16 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation Ltd. (608.40, 9.8%) and Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Ltd. (3,001, 4.2%). 6 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Ltd. (285.15, -5%) and Crisil Ltd. (4,144.95, -1.2%).

 
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The Baseline
23 Apr 2024
5 stocks to buy from analysts this week - April 23, 2024
By Abhiraj Panchal

1. Amara Raja Energy & Mobility:

ICICI Direct reaffirms this auto parts and equipment company as a ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 1,200. This indicates an upside of 15.2%. Analyst Shashank Kanodia is bullish about the company’s strong presence in the automotive sector, which contributes 70% to its sales. He is also optimistic as the company has consistently reported better operating margins than its peers. 

Kanodia is positive about the revenue visibility in the new energy space as Amara Raja entered an MoU with the government of Telangana to set up a Li-Ion Battery Gigafactory. He expects the facility to have a cell manufacturing capacity of up to 16 GWh & assembly capacity of up to 5 GWh. This venture involves an estimated investment of Rs 9,500 crore over the next decade. Kanodia is also upbeat as the company has an indirect presence in the new energy segment through its minority stake in Log9 Materials. 

2. Indian Hotels Company:

Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this hotel company with a target price of Rs 679, indicating an upside of 16%. The analysts point to the room demand being higher compared to supply, thanks to rising demand from domestic travellers and the growth of new tourism segments. Adding to this, the analysts note that demand is continuing to improve with India’s rising prominence in the global tourism market, along with strong support from the government in the form of improved infrastructure and favourable policies.

With good macroeconomic conditions, analysts anticipate average room rentals to grow by 10-12% in FY25. They also note a correlation between airline passenger movement and room demand and expect an increase in room demand alongside rising airline passenger numbers. Sharekhan analysts are positive about the company's plans to accelerate its hotel expansion, targeting the opening of 25 new hotels annually compared to the previous target of 15-20 hotels. In the past quarter, the company’s share price has risen by 22.2% underperforming its industry by 5.6 percentage points. 

3. LT Foods:

Hem Securities initiates a ‘Buy’ call on this agricultural products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 237. This indicates an upside of 13.1%. Analyst Aarushi Lunia says, “We are positive on the future growth prospects of the company on the back of its robust distribution network, strong brand equity and endeavour to enrich its product portfolio by expanding into newer categories.”

Lunia points to LT Foods' expansion in Europe, Mauritius, Denmark, and Slovenia as a green flag. She also believes that the company’s strategic partnership with Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment will give boost its future growth plans in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia region, and fortify its position as one of the leading players. 

The analyst notes that the company aims to enhance its product mix with a higher focus on margin-accretive premium basmati export business and plans to scale up new launches in the value-added segment. LT Foods is targeting a five-year revenue CAGR of 10-12%, driven by a focus on expanding its product portfolio, investments in branding, and strengthening its distribution network.

4. Equitas Small Finance Bank:

Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this bank with a target price of Rs 125, indicating an upside of 27%. Analysts Nitin Aggarwal, Dixit Sankharva and Disha Singhal say, “Equitas Small Finance Bank has been delivering consistent performance, with steady improvements in both asset quality and return ratios. It ispoised to report steady operating performance, backed by robust loan growth, healthy margins and controlled credit costs.”

The bank has been investing in its business by adding new branches and building digital infrastructure and capabilities, which they believe has kept its operating expenses elevated. They expect the bank to continue investing in its tech capabilities. 

Analysts note that the bank has been focusing on building a diversified loan book, with securities-based lending, vehicle finance, microfinance loans and housing finance being the key business segments. It is focused on growing the unsecured personal loan and credit card segments, and targeting the prime segment to improve its loan mix. The analysts estimate a 22% CAGR in loans and a 26% CAGR in deposits over FY24-26. 

5. HDFC Life Insurance:

Bob Capital Markets maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this life insurance provider but reduces its target price to Rs 775 from Rs 850, indicating an upside of 27.9%. In FY24, the company’s net profit increased by 3.1% YoY to Rs 1,258.2 crore, while revenue grew by 5.5% YoY. 

The company’s value of new business (VNB) fell by 5% YoY to Rs 3,500 crore, with margins decreasing by 130 basis points to 26.3%. Analyst Mohit Mangal notes that the margin decline is due to a one-time fixed cost of Rs 1,000 crore and a higher share of unit-linked insurance plans (ULIPs). He expects the company to report a VNB margin of 26.5% in FY25 and estimates a 17% VNB CAGR over FY24-FY26. The analyst adds, “HDFC Life’s market share (individual APE) decreased to 15.4% YoY at the end of FY24, indicating the company's growth struggles.”

However, Mangal maintains his positive stance on HDFC Life Insurance on the back of its innovative launches, balanced product mix, and increasing demand from tier-2 and tier-3 markets.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)