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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    01 Dec 2023
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Aster DM Healthcare:

    This healthcare facilities company rose 18.9% and touched its all-time high of Rs 424.4 per share on Wednesday after its board of directors approved the sale of its Gulf business, Aster DM Healthcare FZC, to Alpha GCC Holdings for $1 billion (approximately Rs 8,330.1 crore). 

    Alpha GCC Holdings, a consortium of Fajr Capital and other members, will own a 65% stake, while the promoters will own the remaining 35% after the transaction. This deal means Aster DM will now focus solely on its  operations in India. The firm also plans to distribute the proceeds from the deal as a dividend to its shareholders. The company shows up in a screener of stocks with prices above short, medium and long-term moving averages. 

    The divestment of the Gulf business aims to create a separate operational entity for India, enabling independent operations and a separate board structure. Despite contributing nearly 75% of consolidated revenue, the Gulf business’ lower margins and higher capital requirements had depressed the valuation. After the divestment, the company’s net profit growth jumped to 146% YoY compared to a 19% YoY fall seen pre-segregation in FY23. Its EBITDA margin also jumped by 200 bps to 15%. 

    Speaking on the divestment, the company’s founder, Azad Moopen, said, “Profitability of the Gulf business was lower because the GCC region is hyper-competitive for a smaller population, compared to the relatively underserved Indian market. The GCC sale will unlock the Indian entity’s potential for growth, which should see this business continue to grow at over 25-30%.”

    2. Tata Power Company

    This electric utilities company has risen around 5.8% in the past week and touched a new 52-week high today. This comes after it announced its plans to invest a capex of Rs 60,000 crore by FY27, during the analyst meet on Tuesday. Around 45% of this capex will be used for expanding its renewable energy segment. The company will invest around Rs 15,000 crore in FY24 and Rs 20,000 crore in FY25. In addition, the company’s arm, Tata Power Renewable Energy, has received a letter of award (LoA) to develop a 200 MW firm and dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE) project with SJVN. 

    Over the past month, the company’s share price has risen by 15.4%. In Q2FY24, Tata Power’s net profit rose 6.9% YoY to Rs 875.5 crore, due to lower fuel expenses. Its operating margins improved by 7.1 percentage points YoY on increased transmission and distribution (T&D) activities and lower costs for coal and solar cells. The electric utilities major plans to double its revenue and profits in the next four years, on the back of these new investments. 

    Sharekhan is optimistic about the company’s shift towards clean energy and believes that growth will be largely driven by the distribution and renewable energy segments. It expects PAT to see a CAGR of 11% over FY23-FY26E. The brokerage maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Tata Power with a target price of Rs 285. 

    During the Q2 earnings call, Praveer Sinha, the Managing Director and CEO, highlighted the company’s focus on clean energy. He said, “We have set an ambitious target that by 2030, 70% of our installed capacity will be clean energy.” Currently, its clean energy portfolio stands at 5,500 MW which is nearly 38% of its installed capacity.

    3. Bharat Heavy Electricals:

    This heavy electrical equipment manufacturer hit its 52-week high of Rs 176.5 on Thursday. Over the past week, it rose by 19.4%, driven by a positive business outlook. It bagged a contract worth Rs 2,956 crore on Wednesday from the Ministry of Defense for supplying 16 advanced guns to the Indian Navy. Additionally, Bharat Heavy Electricals has signed a memorandum with a French state-owned company to explore opportunities in the Jaitapur nuclear power plant project in Maharashtra.

    The company holds a 70% market share in power equipment manufacturing in India. It is now looking to diversify its revenue sources by foraying into new segments like railways (Vande Bharat train sets), pumped-hydro storage facilities, and other defence equipment. The stock also appears in a screener of companies efficiently managing their assets to generate profits. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, its annual net profit is expected to rise by 13.8% YoY to Rs 509.4 crore in FY24. 

    Over the past year, the stock has risen by 103.7%, particularly gaining momentum since mid-2022. The street is optimistic about the company’s prospects due to increasing demand for coal-based power and the Centre’s focus on infrastructure development. Given the firm’s presence across segments, its order book has seen robust growth. 

    The pick-up in new orders is likely to accelerate due to the increasing domestic demand for power. Given the firm's massive market share, it is expected to get a big share of the orders, from the ongoing capacity expansion plans in India. ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ call on the stock. According to analysts, a decrease in raw material prices and improved working capital management can boost the company’s margins. 

    4. Central Depository Services (India): 

    This investment companies firm rose 4.2% on November 23 following the announcement of it becoming the first listed depository to cross 10 crore active demat accounts. The number of active demat accounts grew by 31.8% YoY to 9.6 crore in Q2FY24. According to Trendlyne’s Technicals, the stock rose by 5.9% in the past week, mainly due to the IPO season, especially the Tata Technologies IPO. 

    In Q2FY24, the company’s revenue improved by 39.2% YoY. This increase was due to a significant rise in transaction revenue, IPOs/corporate actions, KYC processing, and strong seasonal earnings from e-voting. The company’s EBITDA margins marginally improved by 6 bps YoY to 62.4% due to lower finance expenses, which were offset by higher technology and employee expenses. The company appears in a screener of stocks with growing net profit and margins.

    The depository’s demat accounts have grown by 8.3% in the current quarter, the highest in seven quarters. Central Depository Services maintains a dominant market share of 74%, with an incremental share of 89%. Additionally, it generates steady revenues from charges imposed on annuity issuers, which are not linked to market fluctuations. The income generated from the annuity division provides revenue visibility.

    HDFC Securities says the mandatory demat requirement for non-small private limited companies presents significant growth prospects. The Ministry of Corporate Affairs has set a compliance deadline of September 2024 for about 1.4 million private limited companies. Despite increased technology investments and growing regulatory and labour expenses, the company’s  EBITDA margins are expected to remain within the 60-62% range. The broker maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.

    5. PCBL:

    This chemicals manufacturer hit its all-time high of Rs 278 on Thursday and marked a 37% rise over the past month. The company acquired Aquapharm Chemicals for Rs 3,800 crore, allowing PCBL to foray into global specialty segments for water treatment chemicals and oil & gas chemicals. This is in line with the company’s vision to create a global specialty chemical business portfolio. 

    PCBL has also formed a battery application joint venture (JV) with Kinaltek, where it holds a 51% stake and will invest $16 million. This diversification of the portfolio aims to reduce the company's reliance on the tyre industry, where it supplies carbon black. 

    In Q2FY24, PCBL’s consolidated net profit grew by 5.4% YoY to Rs 122.6 crore, despite an 8.7% YoY fall in revenue. It beat Trendlyne Forecaster’s net profit estimate by 4.7%, while revenue was in line with estimates. Gross margin expanded by 6.8 percentage points YoY despite lower realisation and volumes. This was due to reduced raw material costs. The company also features in screener for stocks with improving ROCE over the past two years. 

    PCBL has also benefited from the commissioning of its carbon black facility in Chennai, which added 9 ktpa (kilo tonnes per annum) to sales and achieved 50% utilisation. Utilisation rates are expected to reach 80% in 3-4 quarters. The management expects to add 80-100 ktpa of carbon black capacity per annum to meet strong domestic and international demand. Due to its expansion efforts, PCBL stands to benefit from the European ban on Russian carbon black (752 ktpa), effective July 2024. 

    ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ call on PCBL on the back of its entry into the conductive carbon black business. The brokerage believes that it will be an added growth driver and boost margin expansion.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    29 Nov 2023
    COTW: Global index rebalances open the gates to foreign inflows into domestic markets

    COTW: Global index rebalances open the gates to foreign inflows into domestic markets

    By Bhavani Eswar

    Foreign capital is vital for emerging markets like India as it provides essential funds for companies, and helps boost shareholder value. The scale and timing of this foreign money are key for domestic investors. 

    But while foreign investors can help the economy, they also bring market volatility, since such money is ‘easy come, easy go’, and affects inflation and local currency demand. 

    Recent rebalancing in major global indices, like the MSCI and FTSE, creates opportunities for increased foreign inflows. This edition of Chart of the Week focuses on changes in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) indices, a global index provider traded on the NYSE. 

    India's increased weight in the MSCI Global Index could lead to inflows of up to $1.5 billion

    MSCI's indices are critical benchmarks for global fund allocation, guiding investments in stock markets worldwide. These indices are closely monitored by global entities such as asset managers, hedge funds, banks, companies, and insurance firms. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) typically use MSCI indices to guide their allocation of passive funds and have already invested$14.64 billion in Indian equities this year.

    Notable among the MSCI indices are the All Country World Index, Frontier Markets Index, and Emerging Markets (EM) Index (launched in 1988, India included in 1994). India's weight in MSCI indices is set to double to 16.3%, second only to China's 29.8%, in three years, after the latest rebalancing, which will take effect from November 30.

    India’s benchmark indices have outperformed the EM index, yielding 4.7% returns in the year till October, compared to MSCI EM's -2.1% over the same period. Over 10 years, India's annualized returns stand at 8.3%, against MSCI EM's 1.1%.

    Record number of Indian stocks in MSCI after latest rebalancing 

    Indian stocks’ weightage in MSCI indices set to rise with nine additions

    The MSCI EM index determines stock weights based on free-float market capitalization, which are shares that foreign investors can trade. Greater market capitalization means more weight and allocation from investors. Reliance Industries (with a weight of 1.34%), ICICI Bank (0.91%), and Infosys at (0.87%) are among the top 10 stocks in the MSCI EM index.

    In its latest quarterly update, MSCI added nine Indian stocks to the index. Key entries include Tata Motors, Polycab India, Macrotech Developers, IndusInd Bank, and One 97 Communications, the parent company of Paytm. Following this, IndusInd Bank, Suzlon Energy, Persistent Systems, and APL Apollo Tubes are expected to get large investments of $290 million, $264 million, $258 million, and $227 million, respectively, according to Nuvama Research. This brings the total Indian stocks in the index to 131. Notably, no existing Indian stocks were removed to include these new ones.

    The latest positive review by MSCI EM comes almost a month after foreign brokerage Morgan Stanley upgraded India to the status of ‘most preferred’ emerging market.

    Recent changes in FTSE set to bring additional inflows into Indian equities

    Recently, FTSE, another global index provider, implemented adjustments in its semiannual index review on September 18, 2023. It added stocks like Reliance Industries, Wipro, and Bajaj Finance to the India index and expects to attract $120 million from just these three stocks. However, Infosys and HCL Tech might see outflows of $35 million and $15 million, respectively, as reported by IIFL Research.

    The addition or removal of a stock from an index can influence its share price. When a stock is added, demand may increase, leading to a possible price hike. If removed, it could face selling pressure, decreasing its price. These changes, therefore, can impact individual investors' portfolio values. 

    The rise in inflows is expected to come from passive trackers like index-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds, not necessarily from active fund managers. While this does not guarantee a rise in overall foreign funds, it boosts market sentiment.

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    The Baseline
    28 Nov 2023
    5 stocks to buy from analysts this week

    5 stocks to buy from analysts this week

    By Satyam Kumar

    1. Axis Bank:

    HDFC Securities maintains its 'Buy' rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 1,150, indicating an upside of 13%. In Q2FY24, the company reported a revenue growth of 32% YoY to Rs 27,417.5 crore, while its net profit increased by 10.5% YoY. Analysts Krishnan ASV, Neelam Bhatia, and Akshay Badlani are optimistic about its improved deposit quality and aggressive credit card rollout following the Citi acquisition.

    Analysts believe that the bank is investing in technology, using initiatives like Siddhi and Sparsh to improve branch productivity and consumer engagement. These efforts are expected to reach full potential in 7-8 quarters, putting the bank in line with its peers. Deposits have shown a steady improvement, with a 550 bps reduction in outflow rates over the past two years. In the past six quarters, the bank has increased lendable deposits by 34% while reducing non-lendable deposits by 17%.

    After the acquisition of Citi's wealth business, Axis Bank now holds the third-largest wealth management franchise, with AUM exceeding Rs 4.5 trillion. With a dominant position in merchant acquisition (19% market share in PoS terminals), the bank is expected to maintain steady performance and deliver an RoE of 16-17% over the next few years, according to the analysts. 

    2. Coal India:

    Motilal Oswal maintains its 'Buy' rating on this coal company with a target price of Rs 380, indicating an upside of 12.3%. In Q2FY24, its net profit increased by 12.5% YoY to Rs 6,799.7 crore and revenue increased by 9.9% YoY. Analysts Alok Deora and Parthiv Deepak Jhonsa are confident in the company's ability to achieve its production target of 780 million tonnes in FY24, driven by robust consumption demand.

    Deora and Jhonsa expect Coal India’s e-auction premiums to remain stable at 85-90%, reflecting its goal to produce 1 billion metric tonnes within the next three years. With an expected 7.2% growth in domestic power generation to 1,750 billion units in FY24, analysts foresee increased demand for coal. The company is also diversifying its portfolio by investing Rs 150 billion in setting up 3 GW of solar capacity by FY26.

    Deora and Jhonsa believe that the company is well-positioned to capitalise on future growth opportunities. They add that any post-election rise in fuel supply agreement prices could further boost the company's financial performance. 

    3. Devyani International:

    KRChoksey maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this quick service restaurant with a target price of Rs 230, implying an upside of 28.7%. In Q2FY24, the firm’s net profit fell by 43.2% YoY to Rs 33.4 crore and revenue increased by 9.6% YoY. Analyst Unnati Jadhav believes that the company faced seasonal weakness and a challenging macroeconomic environment in Q2, leading to lower same-store sales growth (SSSG) and average daily sales (ADS), impacting profitability. However, she notes that its revenue has grown on the back of new store additions, despite unfavourable market conditions.  

    Jadhav expects consumer sentiment to improve in the coming quarters and believes that Devyani is well-placed to benefit from this through its aggressive store expansion plans. She adds, “The brand contribution margin should improve going forward due to operating leverage and new store stabilisation.” She also believes that the firm is on track to meet its target of 2,000 stores by 2026. The analyst sees the firm’s expansion into non-metro cities in India as a key positive. She expects Devyani’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 22.5% over FY23-25.

    4. The Ramco Cements:

    Geojit BNP Paribas maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this cement products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,119. This indicates an upside of 16.2%. In Q2FY24, the company’s net profit surged to Rs 72 crore (up 23x YoY), while its revenue increased by 30.6% YoY. Analyst Vincent Andrews cites strong volumes and margin improvements in the quarter for the rating. The company has guided for a 20% volume growth in FY24. 

    According to the analyst, the firm’s EBITDA margin has sharply improved by 680 bps YoY to 17.1%, mainly due to lower input costs and higher volumes. He notes that despite high capex during FY19-24 (Rs 5,000 crore as against Rs 1,030 crore in FY19), resulting in increased debt, the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio has improved to 3.3x from 4.5x in the last capex cycle. Andrews concludes, “The Ramco Cements’ capacity expansions, coupled with government push on infra and housing, will help future volumes. Lower input costs and a focus on deleveraging post FY24 will support valuation.”

    5. Finolex Cables:

    Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this electrical equipment company with a target price of Rs 1,100, indicating an upside of 15.7%. In Q2FY24, the company’s net profit grew by 21% YoY to Rs 165 crore, while its revenue was up by 8.9% YoY at Rs 1,187 crore.

    Despite challenges like unseasonal rains affecting discretionary spending and the FMCG segment last quarter, the management considers a margin guidance of 14% realistic, provided raw material prices stabilize. It is also planning a capex of Rs 400 crore in the next 12-18 months to expand capacity across various product categories.

    Analysts predict long-term growth for the company, driven by demand in key sectors like automotive, construction, and industrials. They also expect the government's Bharat Net program to boost demand for its communication cables. “Its capacity expansion across all product categories and backward integration in the optical fiber cables (OFC) segment will drive volume and margin growth in the long run,” say the analysts.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    24 Nov 2023
    2023 sees IPOs rebound, as investors grow optimistic

    2023 sees IPOs rebound, as investors grow optimistic

    By Tejas MD

    The IPO market is a useful mirror, reflecting the mood of investors. In 2022, it showed caution and hesitation, but 2023 tells a different story – one of recovery.  

    In 2022, high inflation and rising interest rates led to a quiet year for Indian IPOs. However, IPOs are back in fashion in 2023 as inflation eases to the RBI's target levels, and investor confidence rises.

    The benchmark Nifty 50 index is up 8.8% in 2023. This renewed enthusiasm is visible globally as well. The US indices S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have risen by 18.4% and 46.5% in 2023.

    Right now, the pessimists are losing money: Michael Burry, the investor known for his ‘big short’ during the 2008 global financial crisis and who had predicted a US market crash in 2023, closed his short positions worth $1.6 billion in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in September, at a 40% loss. 

    India is set to be the fastest-growing major economy in FY24, and many companies are trying to ride the growth wave by launching their IPOs. But how does their performance compare to those in previous years? Let’s explore. 

    In this week’s Analyticks, 

    • IPO fever: 2023 sparks a wave of new listings, breaking 2022's quiet spell
    • Screener: IPO stocks listed in the past two years with the highest 1-year jump in share price, plus YoY revenue and profit growth in Q2FY24

    2023 sees an IPO bonanza, as markets recover 

    The IPO market saw a downturn in pandemic year 2020, with a 14.9% fall in listings. But the recovery in 2021 made it the ‘Year of IPOs’. The number of mainboard IPOs exceeded those of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in 2021, as larger companies rode positive market sentiment, helped by a 24.12% rise in the Nifty 50.

    2023 marks the highest number of IPOs listed in five years  

    After a bull run in 2021, 2022 brought volatility, fueled by high inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical tensions. As a result, many companies scrapped their IPO plans citing unfavourable market conditions.

    But in 2023, the total number of IPO listings has risen sharply, and reached the highest level in the past five years.

    Vast majority of IPOs list in the green

    Over the past five years, the number of IPOs listing with gains has increased. As of November 20, 2023, 83% of IPOs have listed above their issue prices. 

    IPO success rate climbs: Majority list in the green 

    The average listing gains of the five most successful mainline IPOs in each year tell an interesting story.

    2022 sees dip in the top five IPOs' average listing gains 

    The average gain was the highest in 2021 (157.3%) but dropped significantly in 2022, due to investor hesitancy after the underperformance of several high-profile tech IPOs in 2021. 

    Only Zomato trades higher than its issue price among new-age tech companies

    However, 2023 signals a positive shift. Not only has the number of listed mainline and SME IPOs crossed 2022’s total, the average listing gains of the most successful ones have also improved sharply, from 49.7% to 77.5% in 2023.

    Banking and finance IPOs excel in 2023

    Two companies from the banking and finance sector, Utkarsh Small Finance Bank and SBFC Finance, are among the top four IPOs this year, thanks to the sector's overall uptrend.

    Utkarsh Small Finance Bank rises since its successful listing in July 2023

    The most successful IPO of the year, ideaForge Technology from the defense sector, debuted with a 92.7% gain. However, the stock has since fallen sharply and is currently trading only 20% above its issue price. This IPO also had the second-highest total subscription at 106x its offer. The Indian government's defense spending boost has increased investor interest in this sector.

    All four IPOs in 2023 garner strong investor interest with high subscription rates 

    Netweb Technologies, a software and services company, saw strong interest from qualified institutional buyers (QIBs) and listed at high gains. However, since its listing on July 27, the stock has declined by over 15%.

    Stock prices of three out of the four most successful IPOs have now fallen below their listing gains. This trend suggests that investors are cashing in on initial gains to secure profits. Three of these IPOs listed in July 2023, a month when the Nifty 50 closed in the green for the fifth consecutive month. 

    Post-2021, investors seem more inclined toward companies with strong fundamentals, especially after loss-making companies were listed at extremely high valuations, but failed to meet expectations.

    Barring ideaForge Technologies, which turned profitable in FY22, the other three top IPOs in 2023 have displayed consistent profitability.

    ideaForge Technology turns profitable in FY22

    With still a month left in the year, India's IPO landscape is bustling with activity. In the coming weeks, five companies, including Tata Technologies and the Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA), are set to collectively raise over Rs 7,300 crore. The IPO recovery is a confidence signal in the Indian economy, and more companies are lining up to list in the coming months.


    Screener: IPO stocks listed in the past two years with highest 1-year change, and YoY revenue and profit growth in Q2FY24

    Kaynes Tech leads in 1-year change % among IPOs listed in the past two years

    This screener shows profit-making mainline IPO stocks listed in the past two years that have risen the most over the past year, with YoY revenue and net profit growth in Q2FY24. The screener is dominated by the banking & finance, consumer durables, diversified consumer durables, textiles, apparels & accessories and software & services sectors. 

    Major stocks that appear in the screener are Kaynes Technology India, Kalyan Jewellers India, Anand Rathi Wealth, Electronics Mart India, RateGain Travel Technologies and Global Health.

    Kaynes Technology India has risen by 322.5% since its listing on the bourses on November 22, 2022. Its net profit grew by 53.8% YoY to Rs 32.3 crore, while revenue increased by 32.1% YoY in Q2FY24. The profit increase is on the back of improvement in the automotive, industrial and aerospace, outer-space & strategic electronics segments.

    Kalyan Jewellers comes next with a 238.5% rise over the past year. Listed on March 26, 2021, at Rs 73.9 per share, its net profit and revenue grew by over 27% YoY in Q2FY24. This profit rise was aided by an improvement in operational leverage, new customer additions and new showrooms.

    You can find more screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    24 Nov 2023
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Narayana Hrudayalaya:

    This healthcare facilities firm has been in the news after announcing a Rs 1,000 crore super speciality hospital in Kolkata, leading to a 3.3% rise in its stock on November 21. According to Trendlyne’s Technicals, the stock rose 8.2% over the past week, outperforming the Nifty Healthcare index by 6.6%. The outperformance was due to its lower valuation compared to peers, improved profitability of its newer hospitals post-expansion, and upcoming growth plans in both domestic and Cayman Island hospitals.

    In Q2FY24, the company’s revenue improved by 14.3% YoY, backed by rising average revenue per patient. The company’s EBITDA margins increased by 230 bps YoY, driven by increased revenue realization per bed in its domestic and Cayman Island hospitals. The company appears in a screener of stocks with growing quarterly net profit and margins. 

    The management plans a capex of Rs 1,140 crore in FY24, having already invested Rs 394 crore in H1FY24. The capex will focus on technological upgrades for better patient care and operational efficiency, as well as development in the Cayman Islands. Revenue growth was observed in new hospitals, with improved EBITDA. 

    Prabhudas Lilladher says that the company comes at an attractive valuation compared to its peers. The ramp-up in its Cayman unit, which will be operational in H1FY25, will be key. The broker maintains a ‘buy’ rating on the company.

    2. CG Power and Industrials:

    This heavy electrical equipment manufacturer’s shares have surged to a record high of Rs 498 each, with a 20% rise on Wednesday alone. The rise follows the Murugappa Group company's announcement that it is seeking approval to set up a semiconductor assembly unit – an area where the Indian government has long aspired to be a key player. 

    In its regulatory filing, CG Power said it had applied to the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY), proposing a project with an outlay of Rs 6,592 crore over the next five years. The project is part of a  scheme offering 50% capex support from the Centre.

    In Q2FY24, the firm reported a revenue growth of 19.5% YoY to Rs 2,000 crore, beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 1.6%. Its net profit also rose by 35.4% YoY to Rs 242 crore. Due to its success in generating cash, the firm appears in a screener of stocks with improving cash flow from operations. According to Trendlyne’s Forecaster, the company’s annual revenue is expected to rise by 17.8% in FY24.

    The management has approved capacity expansion in both the industrial and power systems segments at multiple units in Bhopal, with an investment of Rs 35 crore. A similar expansion plan has been approved for units in Nashik, with an investment of Rs 155 crore. Geojit BNP Paribas expects the company to incur a capex of Rs 500 in FY24 and FY25, driven by strong domestic order book. 

    3. Welspun Corp:

    This iron & steel products company has been on the rise over the past month, touching its 52-week high of Rs 562.9 per share on November 21. The surge is on the back of strong results, new order wins, and approvals for expansion. Its stock price has risen by 25.6% over the past month, featuring in a screener of stocks with prices above short, medium and long-term moving averages.

    The stock rose by 8.5% on November 12 after its associate company, East Pipes Integrated Company for Industry (EPIC), signed a contract worth approximately Rs 1,000 crore with Saudi Aramco. The contract involves supplying large-diameter steel pipes to Aramco for the next 13 months. 

    The company’s subsidiary, Sintex BAPL, also received approval from the government of Odisha to invest Rs 479.5 crore in a new pipe manufacturing unit in Sambalpur on Wednesday. The facility, set to have a production capacity of 37,520 MT per annum, is expected to become operational in the next three years. 

    Welspun Corp also posted a net profit of Rs 384.7 crore in Q2FY24 compared to a net loss of Rs 56.6 crore in Q2FY23. Its revenue surged by 106.7% YoY to Rs 4,059.4 crore, thanks to improved sales in the pipeline and building materials segments. Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects the company’s revenue to grow by 49.9% YoY and net profit to surge by 4.6x YoY in FY24. 

    Commenting on its latest order wins, Vipul Mathur, MD and CEO of the company, said, “Our associate company, EPIC in Saudi Arabia has a confirmed order book exceeding two years. The execution of the recent Aramco order, valued at SAR.1.8 billion (approximately Rs 4,000 crore), has started.”

    4. Aurobindo Pharma

    This pharmaceutical company touched an all-time high of Rs 1,043 on Wednesday (November 22), following the US FDA approval of the anti-cancer drug, Ryzneuta, developed by its subsidiary Acrotech Biopharma. The global market size of the drug is approximately $6 billion. Aurobindo Pharma’s share price has risen by 5.8% in the past week, further boosted by a successful US FDA inspection at the manufacturing facility of another subsidiary, APL Healthcare, which resulted in zero observations. As a result, it features in a screener of stocks with the highest recovery from their 52-week lows. 

    Over the past month, the stock has risen by 18.1%, outperforming its industry. Its net profit in Q2FY24 surged by around 85% to Rs 757.2 crore, while the EBITDA margin expanded by 485 bps YoY to 19.4%, driven by low material cost and a favourable product mix. According to Santhanam Subramanian, the Chief Financial Officer, “We are on track to achieve the 20% plus EBITDA margin target set internally for the year.”

    Aurobindo Pharma’s revenue has grown by 25.7% YoY, led by healthy performance in the formulations and API (active pharmaceutical ingredients) businesses (up 29% YoY and 20.3% YoY, respectively). During the quarter, the revenue from US formulations (excluding Puerto Rico) increased by 35.7% YoY to Rs 3,385 crore, driven by volume growth, stable demand, and new product launches. 

    KR Choksey maintains its ‘Accumulate’ rating on Aurobindo, with an upgraded target price of Rs 1,090. The brokerage is optimistic about the company’s strong pipeline of 40 new products slated for launch in the next 12 months, providing growth opportunities in existing and new businesses. 

    5. UNO Minda: 

    This auto parts manufacturer hit its all-time high of Rs 694.7 on Friday, marking a rise of 17% since the announcement of its Q2FY24 results on November 7. Its profit has increased by 32.3% YoY to Rs 225 crore, while its revenue grew by 25.5% YoY to Rs 3,630.2 crore. It beat Trendlyne Forecaster’s net profit and revenue estimates by 9.9% and 6%, respectively. Its EBITDA margin improved by 42 bps sequentially to 11.1%, due to a fall in employee and other expenses.

    The growth in Q2FY24 has been on the back of continued capacity expansion and market share gains. The company also witnessed growth across all product verticals. The switch segment, which accounts for 28% of total revenue, grew by 26% YoY, while the lighting and casting segments increased by 23% and 21%, respectively. The company features in a screener for stocks with low debt.

    For FY24, UNO Minda has planned a capex of around Rs 700-800 crore. The firm commissioned its electric vehicles component and systems plant in Q2FY24. According to ICRA, EV penetration is expected to double from the current 2-3% to 4-6% by FY25, which will potentially increase the company’s orders from original equipment manufacturers.

    UNO Minda has approved the setting up of a new greenfield plant with a capacity of 1.2 lakh alloy wheels per month, responding to strong demand as the existing capacity is fully utilised. According to the management, “The new plant will lead to a potential 2-3X growth over the next seven years.”

    Axis Securities upgraded its rating on UNO Minda to ‘Buy’, citing continued outperformance and consistent execution capabilities. It forecasts revenue and profit CAGR of 15% and 19% respectively, over FY24-26. 

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    23 Nov 2023

    Chart of the Week: Chemical, banking and IT stocks get highest upsides from analysts

    By Akshat Singh

    While looking at what analysts recommend as stocks to buy, the average target price upside is crucial. This metric looks at the potential share price growth of a stock, as forecasted by analysts. A higher upside percentage indicates a more positive outlook, and a potential for growth beyond the stock’s current valuation. 

    It's important to note that analyst predictions are not always accurate – there are unexpected factors that can affect a business, and its stock price. This is a cloudy crystal ball. But analyst calls are one among several factors investors can consider before picking a stock.

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we focus on this screener, which highlights stocks with high target prices and a significant upside according to analysts. We have selected sectors with the highest upside % and the stocks within these sectors driving this upward trend. We have only included stocks with positive price changes in the past six months. 

    Analysts highlight chemical sector’s high upside amid expansions

    The chemical & petrochemical sector has been on the mend, and Anupam Rasayan India is set for an especially strong performance, according to analysts, with an average share price upside of 42.2%. The stock has risen by 9.7% in the past month. Prabhudas Liladher expects the company’s revenue to grow on the back of three factors: its commercialization of innovative products, a robust order book, and its expansion into fluorination chemistry, which signifies diversification within the industry.

    PI Industries also shows promise with an average price upside of 17.5%. The stock has risen by 12.4% in the past six months. According to Axis Direct, PI Health Sciences aims to boost its research capabilities by acquiring firms for a new pharmaceutical centre in Hyderabad. New brand launches and reduced working capital point to the company's growth plans. Finally, we have Aarti Industries with an average share price upside of 16.8%. It has risen  by 5.3% in the past six months. 

    Analysts expect high growth in internet software and services 

    Next, we move to the software & services sector, where Infibeam Avenues has an average share price upside of 28.7%. Its stock price has risen by 48.6% in the past six months. New-tech company Zomato has an average share price upside of 20.4% and rose by 80.6% in the same period. According to Motilal Oswal, India's food delivery sector is still developing and holds significant growth opportunities. They predict Zomato's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 53% annually from FY23 to FY25 due to its strong market presence in the food delivery and Hyperpure segments. 

    PB Fintech’s average share price upside stands at 7.8% and its stock price has risen by 29.7% in the past six months. According to Keynote Capital, the company is going through a crucial growth phase, driven by increased commission revenue, expansion into smaller cities, and effective cost management. Its insurance premiums have grown by 36.5%, due to a surge in health insurance, while lending disbursals rose by 41.6% in Q2FY24. 

    Moving on to the banking & finance sector, the Indian Energy Exchange has an average share price upside of 19.6%. The stock has risen by 1.4% in the past month. Similarly, Union Bank of India has an average share price upside of 15.6%, with a 57.9% rise in the past six months. The upside is thanks to management efforts to maintain gross non-performing assets (GNPA) below 6% and net non-performing assets (NNPA) under 1% for FY24. 

    As for Can Fin Homes, analysts expect a price upside of 10.2%. The stock has risen by 17% in the past six months. This upside is attributable to an increase in net interest margin (NIM) despite higher credit costs. By closely managing credit and operating expenses, the company aims to improve return ratios.

    In the automobiles and auto components sector, CIE Automotive India has the highest average share price upside of 22.1%. The stock has risen by 8.7% in the past six months. Analysts anticipate increased profits due to CIE's decision to sell its German operations, which is expected to increase EBITDA margins for its European business, in line with the company's targeted EBITDA range of 17-18%. 

    The two companies of the Minda group, Uno Minda and Minda Corporation, have price upsides of 9.4% and 9.1%, respectively. These stocks have risen by 22.9% and 25.1% in the past six months. 

    Cement & construction sector’s outlook strong amid robust order books 

    In the cement & construction sector, IRB Infrastructures Developers leads with the highest average share price upside of 39.1%. The stock has risen by 28.8% in the past six months. The positive outlook is tied to the company's steady FY24 construction revenue projection, expected to be in the range of  Rs 5,000-5,500 crore, a 20-25% rise from the previous year. Looking forward, the company plans to bid on projects worth Rs 80,000-85,000 crore by Q3FY24.

    KNR Constructions follows with an upside of 14%. The stock has risen by 24% in the past six months. According to Motilal Oswal, although the order inflow has been low so far, the tender pipeline remains strong. Due to reduced awarding activity by NHAI in H1FY24, KNRC has adjusted its FY24 order inflow estimate to Rs 2,000-3,000 crore. With an existing order book of Rs 7,500 crore, the company is projected to achieve an 11% CAGR in revenue for FY23-25. Birla Corporation also has a price upside of 7.8%. The stock has risen by 31.6% over the past six months.

    In the FMCG sector, Dabur India is at the forefront with the highest average share price upside of 16.4%. The stock has risen by 4.2% in the past six months. It is followed by Godrej Consumer and Tata Consumer, with price upsides of 15.8% and 6.3%, respectively. Analysts hold a positive outlook for this sector as they foresee improvements driven by lower core inflation, increased government spending, higher urban remittances, and the likelihood of easing raw material prices boosting profit margins.

    General industrials and Pharmaceutical stocks rise on regulatory approvals

    3M India is the top performer in the General Industrials sector with an average upside of 13.9%. The stock has risen by 29.5% in the past six months. Next in line is defence player Bharat Dynamics, with an upside of 11.3%. The stock has risen by 6.4% in the same period. This optimistic view comes from the Defence Acquisition Council's approval in September 2023 for the production of Dhruvastra missiles, intended for the indigenous ALH Mk-IV helicopters. Elgi Equipments also has an average share price upside  of 7.9%. It has risen by 9.6% in six months.

    Shifting to the pharmaceutical & biotechnology sector, Gland Pharma leads with an 11% average share price upside and a stock price rise of 55.2% in the past six months. According to Axis Direct, the company has expanded in Europe by acquiring Cenexi for CDMO operations and established new B2B partnerships in various markets by optimizing its US-approved ANDA portfolio. Major international players like Procter & Gamble Health and Pfizer are also in the spotlight with average upsides of 8.4% and 6.6%, respectively

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    The Baseline
    21 Nov 2023
    Which stocks did superstar investors sell in Q2FY24?

    Which stocks did superstar investors sell in Q2FY24?

    By Suhas Reddy

    Superstar investor portfolios are closely tracked, for valuable insights into market trends and strategies. The proof is in the pudding - the most-watched superstars have a long track-record in increasing their net worth and making high-return picks. These seasoned investors' buying and selling decisions tell us quite a bit about their views on various stocks and sectors.

    All superstar investors see their net worth rise in Q2FY24

    Previously, we looked at the key superstar buys in Q2FY24. Now, let's analyse their sells. 

    Biggest sells by superstars in Q2FY24

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala/RARE Enterprises makes fewer sells compared to previous quarters

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio, currently managed by his wife Rekha Jhunjhunwala, and investment firm Rare Enterprises, cut its stakes in four companies in Q2FY24. Despite these sales, the late big bull’s portfolio grew by 1.6% QoQ to Rs 39,507 crore.

    The investment firm reduced its holdings in two companies to below 1% in the July-September quarter. The biggest sell was in the agrochemicals company, Rallis India, where its stake was cut from 7.8% to below 1%. Rallis’ share price has fallen by 4.9% over the past year. 

    Similarly, the portfolio took its stake to below 1% from 2.5% in Autoline Industries. This auto parts & equipment stock rose by 6.1% over the past year. 

    Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio pares stakes in four companies

    The other two sells include firms from the banking and finance sector. It cut its stake in Federal Bank by 0.4% to 3.1% and in Star Health & Allied Insurance Co, a general insurance firm, by 0.6% to 17.25%. 

    Ashish Kacholia sells stakes in two recently added stocks 

    Ashish Kacholia sold stakes in 11 companies in Q2FY24. During the quarter, his net worth increased by 25.3% QoQ to Rs 2,541.1 crore. He reduced his stakes in Venus Pipes & Tubes and SG Finserve to below 1% each, despite having added these metals and finance companies to his portfolio in Q1. Venus Pipes’ share price rose 14.2% over the quarter while SG Finserve fell by 6.1%. 

    Kacholia also scaled back his stakes in Arvind Fashions (apparels and accessories manufacturer) and Bharat Bijlee (electrical engineering company) to below 1% each. Their stock prices rose 17.8% and 69.2% respectively in the past year. He held 1.1% and 1.8% in them respectively in the previous quarter. 

    Ashish Kacholia scales back stakes in four companies to below 1%

    Kacholia reduced his stake in auto parts manufacturer SJS Enterprises by 1.1% and now holds 3.2% (stock price increased by 33.2% in the past year). The ace investor also trimmed a 0.4% stake each in Xpro India (containers & packaging company) and NIIT (IT training services provider) and now holds 3.9% and 1.86%, respectively. He cut his stake in Repro India (publishing company) to 3.2% by selling a 0.3% stake.

    Kacholia also sold a 0.2% stake in Safari Industries (India) and a 0.1% stake in ADF Foods. He now holds 2.1% in the textile company and a 2.8% stake in the FMCG company. He also slightly reduced his stake in Ami Organics to 2.1%.

    Sunil Singhania goes on a selling spree

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund pared stakes in nine companies in Q2FY24. But the Fund’s net worth rose by 12.6% QoQ to Rs 2,382.4 crore during the same period, thanks to gains in the existing portfolio and a few buys. It sold a 1.95% stake in Rajshree Polypack retaining 4.28% of it. The commercial services and supplies company’s stock price grew 23% in the past year.

    Sunil Singhania cuts stake in Rajshree Polypack by 1.95%

    The fund also trimmed its stakes in Hindware Home Innovation and Ion Exchange (India) (prices increased by 48.6% and 137% in the past year), a consumer durables and utilities company, by 0.5% each. It now holds 4.4% and 2.8% stakes in the companies, respectively. It also reduced its stake in AGI Greenpac (a diversified consumer services company) and Dreamfolks Services (a travel support services company) and now holds 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. 

    Abakkus cut a 0.1% stake each in Uniparts India (heavy electrical equipment manufacturer) and Siyaram Silk Mills (textile company) to now hold 2.2% and 1.9% respectively. It also cut a minor stake in CMS Info Systems and Mastek, and now holds 1% and 3.2%, respectively.

    Vijay Kedia removes two companies from his portfolio

    Vijay Kedia adjusted his portfolio by reducing stakes in six companies in Q2FY24. His net worth increased by 41% QoQ to Rs 1,388.8. He slashed his stakes in Heritage Foods and Panasonic Energy India to below 1% during the quarter, from a 1.2% stake each in the packaged foods and electronic components companies in Q1FY24. The stock price of the former increased by 41.5% while the later fell by 25.7% in the past year.

    Vijay Kedia takes stakes to below 1% in two companies

    Kedia sold a 3.5% stake in Affordable Robotic & Automation over H1FY24. He now holds a 9.9% stake in the industrial machinery manufacturer. The company rose by 268.6% in the past year. He also cut his stake in Repro India to 6.36% by selling a 0.5% share of the publishing company. 

    He sold a 0.2% stake in Elecon Engineering as well. He now holds 1.6% in the industrial machinery manufacturer. He reduced his stake in Tejas Networks (a telecom company) to 2% by selling a 0.1% stake. 

    Dolly Khanna offloads stakes in multiple companies in Q2FY24

    Dolly Khanna sold significantly in Q2FY24, as she cut her holdings in nine companies. Her portfolio grew by 16.5% QoQ to Rs 359.8 crore in the July-September quarter. However, she has not reduced her stakes in any of these companies below the 1% threshold. 

    Dolly Khanna reduces holdings in nine companies

    The superstar investor’s biggest sell in Q2 was Pondy Oxides & Chemicals, an other non-ferrous metals manufacturer, in which she reduced her stake by 0.6% to 3.1%. Over the past year, this small-cap company gained 21.9%. 

    She lowered her stake in Simran Farms by 0.44% to 1.44%, while stock price has increased by 19.5% over the past year. In Monte Carlo Fashions she cut her holding by 0.42% to 1.94%, while its share price movement has been flat over the past year, rising by a marginal 0.3%. 

    She also cut a 0.3% stake in the cement company, KCP, bringing her holding to 1.4%. The ace investor trimmed her stakes by 0.2% each in Chennai Petroleum Corp, Nitin Spinners and Som Distilleries & Breweries, now owning 1.6%, 1.2% and 1.1% in them respectively. She also brought down her stake in Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizers by 0.1% to 1.2% and slightly reduced her holding in Tinna Rubber and Infrastructure. 

    Porinju V Veliyath cuts holdings in nine companies

    In Q2FY24, Porinju V Veliyath sold his stakes in nine companies and among them, he pared his holdings to below 1% in five. His portfolio grew by 38% QoQ to Rs 208.7 crore. 

    He took his stake in Priti International from 1.3% to below 1%. This furniture manufacturing company gained 49.3% over the past year. He also reduced his stake in Taneja Aerospace & Aviation, to below 1% from 1.2%. This aerospace firm had surged by 93.2% over the past year.  

    The ace investor brought his stakes to below 1% from 1.1% each in Lakshmi Automatic Loom Works, Kovilpatti Lakshmi Roller Flour Mills and Ansal Properties & Infrastructure. 

    Porinju takes his stakes in five companies to below 1% 

    However, the superstar investor’s biggest sell in Q2 was in Ansal Buildwell, a realty company, where he reduced his stake by 1.4% to 2% and the stock had fallen by 5.8% over the past year. He trimmed his stake in the commodity chemicals firm, Ashok Alco-Chem, by 1.1% to 3%. He also cut minor stakes in Max India and Thejo Engineering. 

    Mohnish Pabrai sells his stake in a petrochemicals company

    Mohnish Pabrai’s net worth increased by 25.6% QoQ to Rs 1,364.9 crore in Q2FY24. During this period, he reduced his stake in Rain Industries to 6.95% by selling a 1.87% stake in the petrochemicals company. Rain Industries reported a loss for the first time after a streak of profitability for five consecutive quarters. Its stock price fell by 17.8% in the past year.

    Mohnish Pabrai pares stake in Rain Industries

    This analysis by Trendlyne is meant for investor education - to help understand companies and make informed investment decisions on their own. It should not be considered an investment recommendation.

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    The Baseline
    21 Nov 2023
    5 stocks to buy from analysts this week

    5 stocks to buy from analysts this week

    By Abhiraj Panchal

    1. Bajaj Finance:

    Axis Securities maintains its 'Buy' call on this banking and finance company with a share price target of Rs 9,425. This indicates a potential upside of 32.7%. Analysts Dnyanada Vaidya and Prathamesh Sawant remain positive on the firm despite an RBI’s directive asking Bajaj Finance to stop approving loans for the Insta EMI Card and eCOM due to non-compliance with online lending regulations, particularly in interest rates and repayment methods.

    According to the analysts, this regulation is not expected to significantly impact the company's financials, as only 4.1% of Bajaj Finance's total disbursements come from the EMI card segment. However, they caution that prolonged “restrictions would affect the company’s customer acquisition momentum” since the EMI card segment constitutes 18-21% of total new customer acquisitions. They also expect a potential decline in the return on assets in the case of lower fee income, and pressures in the Net Interest Margin (NIM) in H2FY24.

    2. Aarti Industries:

    Geojit BNP maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this specialty chemicals manufacturer with a target price of Rs 600. This indicates an upside of 15.1%. In Q2FY24, the company’s net profit fell 27.2% YoY, while its revenue dropped by 13.7% YoY. 

    The revenue was lower than the brokerage’s estimates due to inventory destocking and decreasing realisation. According to analyst Anil R, sequential growth in EBITDA was led by falling input costs and operational expenses.

    The company’s management says that the worst impacts were observed in H1FY24, with demand revival in dyes, polymers, additives, and some discretionary categories. Aarti Industries has also planned a capex of Rs 3,000 crore for 40 new value-added products over FY24-25. 

    The analyst says, “Our confidence is bolstered by the sector's robust growth prospects, Aarti Industries strategic emphasis on portfolio expansion, aggressive capacity expansion, and the anticipated uptick in long-term contracts.” He expects profit to grow by 12% CAGR over FY24-25.

    3. Tata Steel:

    Bob Capital reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this steel products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 150, indicating an upside of 18.8%. According to analysts Kirtan Mehta and Yash Thakur, the company’s Q2FY24 performance has been weak but only marginally below their estimates. They suggest a sequential improvement in Q3 is likely, and note that the company’s “profit has bottomed in Q2 as operations in the Netherlands return to breakeven, and India’s H2 demand outlook improves”.

    Tata Steel’s cash transition cost assessment of 235 million pounds for redundancies and asset closures aligns broadly with the brokerage’s prior estimate of 250 million pounds for the decarbonisation of its UK operations. The company has planned a similar capex for transitioning the operations in the Netherlands as well. Despite the weak results, the analysts remain confident in Tata Steel’s ability to deliver earnings-accretive growth.

    4. KNR Constructions:

    HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this construction & engineering company with a share price target of Rs 341, implying an upside of 14.3%. In Q2FY24, its net profit grew by 27.8% YoY to Rs 147.4 crore and revenue increased by 8% YoY.  

    Analysts Parikshit D Kandpal, Nikhil Kanodia and Manoj Rawat note that while KNR’s revenue and profit growth in Q2 were healthy, its EBITDA margin fell YoY due to volatile raw material prices and higher fixed costs. They add that the firm recorded no new orders in H1FY24, leading to a “revised  FY24 order inflow target range of Rs 3,000-4,000 crore, down from Rs 4,000-5,000 crore earlier”. 

    However, the analysts expect the firm to win orders in H2FY24 on the back of diversification into different segments and geographies. Kandpal, Kanodia and Rawat remain optimistic about KNR’s prospects given its healthy balance sheet, strong execution capabilities and order pipeline. They estimate the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 10.4% over FY23-26. 

    5. Grasim Industries:

    Motilal Oswal keeps its ‘Buy’ rating on this cement manufacturer with a target price of Rs 2,380. This implies an upside of 20.4%. In Q2FY24, its net profit rose by 15.3% YoY to Rs 1,163.8 crore and revenue grew by 10% YoY. Analysts Sanjeev Kumar Singh and Mudit Agarwal attribute the growth in net profit to a healthy performance in the viscose staple fibre (VSF) segment. VSF, a man-made biodegradable fibre, is emerging as an alternative to cotton. However, the analysts point out that the firm’s EBITDA was impacted due to cost pressures in the chemical segment.

    Singh and Agarwal expect the company’s margins to stabilise in H2FY24 on the back of caustic soda prices improving from their lows. They see the slight rise in VSF prices in China and the launch of its paint business as key positives. They add, “We believe that the firm raising Rs 4,000 crore through a rights issue will ease pressure on the balance sheet and support  its growth plans.” The analysts expect the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 9.5% over FY23-25. 

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    17 Nov 2023, 04:51PM
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Computer Age Management Services:

    This capital markets company has risen by 19.2% in the past week, touching its 52-week high of Rs 2,890 per share on Thursday. In Q2FY24, it posted a 17.1% YoY growth in net profit to Rs 84.5 crore and a 13.5% YoY increase in revenue to Rs 275.1 crore, in line with Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates. The company appears in screeners of stocks with increasing revenue and net profit over the past four quarters.

    The stock’s EBITDA margin has expanded by 150 bps YoY to 58%, aided by improved operational leverage, as its expenses grew more slowly than the revenue. The company’s revenue increased on the back of growth in client additions, transaction volumes, and the SIP book. The company’s assets under management (AUM) also rose by 20.3% YoY, owing to growing interest in mutual funds among retail investors. 

    Commenting on the performance, Anuj Kumar, the Managing Director of the company, said, “Our overall assets under service touched a lifetime high of Rs.32.6 lakh crore, and our mutual fund market share is steady at 68.5%. Equity assets grew by 28% YoY on the back of rising share in equity sales alongside steady market movement.”

    Post results, Motilal Oswal Financial Services maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 2,950 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 4.1%. The brokerage believes that the company’s mutual fund segment will deliver strong growth in AUM in the long term. It also foresees favourable macro triggers and investments in the non-mutual fund segment boosting revenue growth. It expects the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 13.5% over FY23-25.

    2. Eicher Motors:

    This automobile manufacturer hit its 52-week high of Rs 3,898 on Friday, marking a 9.1% rise over the past week. The price rise followed the announcement of its Q2FY24 financial results. The company’s net profit has increased by 54.7% YoY to Rs 1,016.2 crore, beating Trendlyne Forecaster’s estimate by 3.7%. It also reported its highest-ever revenue from operations of Rs 4,388.3 crore, a 19.6% YoY increase. In Q2FY24, Royal Enfield registered its highest wholesale performance with close to 2,29,500 motorcycles sold, while VECV also recorded its highest sales of 19,551 units. 

    Despite the introduction of premium motorcycles by competitors like Bajaj Auto and Hero Motocorp, in collaboration with international brands Triumph and Harley Davidson respectively, Eicher Motors’  management says that it is confident about their position in the >250cc motorcycle segment. 

    In the past month, Royal Enfield launched the new Himalayan 450 and an updated Bullet with a J-series engine. Managing Director Siddhartha Lal said, “Both motorcycles have spurred immense consumer interest across the world.” The management believes that the new Himalayan has the potential to become a “game-changer” in the export market, where it currently maintains its market share (8% in America, 9% in Europe and 9% in EMEA) despite a declining industry trend. 

    Eicher Motors is also venturing into electric mobility, having presented an electric motorcycle concept based on the Himalayan Testbed. In addition, VECV has begun delivering electric buses to customers and signed MoUs with leading e-commerce and mobility firms for the supply of over 1000 electric trucks and buses. 

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on Eicher Motors on the back of its strong quarterly performance and new launches, but remains cautious in the face of increasing competition. The company also appears in a screener for stocks with recommendations or target price upgrades by brokers.

    3. Manappuram Finance:

    This banking and finance company has risen by over 11.2% in the past week, touching a new 52-week high on Thursday. This rise follows its Q2FY24 net profit increasing by 20.4% YoY to Rs 419.9 crore, beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 7%. The rise in share price places the company in a screener of stocks with prices above their short, medium and long-term moving averages. The company’s revenue has also increased by 16.5%, driven by its gold loan and microfinance segments. 

    The strong performance is led by robust growth in the company’s AUM (up 27% YoY) and net interest income or NII (up 26% YoY). The AUM for the quarter increased by 27% to Rs 38,950 crore, driven by healthy growth in the MFI (microfinance institution), vehicles, and housing segments. Further, its gold loan AUM (which constitutes 53% of the total AUM) expanded by 8% YoY. VP Nandakumar, the Managing Director, said, “The share of non-gold vertical in our total AUM is now at 47%, in line with our objective of achieving a 50-50 portfolio between gold and non-gold verticals.” The company has guided for a gold loan growth of 8-10% YoY in FY24 and is focused on maintaining pricing discipline in gold loans despite high competition. 

    Following the results, Axis Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating, with a target price of Rs 160. The brokerage believes Manappuram Finance is well-positioned to continue its growth momentum as it focuses on growing its AUM with a sustainable diversified mix, maintaining its stable asset quality. 

    4. Power Finance Corporation:

    This banking and finance company has risen by 14.1% over the past week till Friday, led by its stellar Q2FY24 earnings released on November 8. The stock outperformed the benchmark Nifty Financial Servicesby 13.7% during the same period. The company’s net profit rose by 27% YoY to Rs 3,847 crore and revenue grew by 16% YoY to Rs 17,964 crore. The top-line growth was driven by an increase in lending in the energy transition segment. The company beat Trendlyne Forecaster’s net profit estimates by 24%. 

    According to the management, the company has been able to maintain its market share of 25% in the renewable energy segment due to a sharp rise in disbursals. It noted that the renewable energy space alone has seen a 37% YoY growth in disbursals compared to H1FY23. The company's total disbursals surged by 150% YoY, from Rs 21,790 crore in H1FY23 to Rs 55,562 crore in H1FY24, due to increased lending to renewable energy projects. Higher recoveries and improved diligence in loan disbursals have led to a 98 bps fall in the firm’s Gross NPAs (bad loans) from 4.38% in H1FY23 to 3.4% in H1FY24.

    “In the medium to long term, we see existing business to be complemented by opportunities in energy transition and E-mobility,” noted its CMD Parminder Chopra. The firm is looking to maintain its leadership in lending to renewable energy projects, especially in the North Eastern region of India. In the present quarter, the firm has also forayed into airport funding projects, diversifying its revenue sources further.

    5. NTPC: 

    This electric utilities firm rose 5.7% in the past week following the announcement of its Q2FY24 results. The company’s net profits improved by 38.2% YoY, while its revenue only saw a marginal increase of 1.8% YoY due to lower income from the generation segment. According to Trendlyne’s Technicals, the stock has risen by 15.7% in the past three months. 

    The company’s EBITDA margins have expanded by 260 bps on account of lower fuel expenses. In H1FY24, NTPC increased its total capacity by 5.1% YoY, with the majority of it in thermal capacity. This will help the company manage inconsistencies in renewable energy production.

    The company has set a capex target of Rs 28,400 crore for FY24, with around 47% of it already utilised in the first half. The stock appears in a screener of companies with improving quarterly net profit and profit margins.

    NTPC has also reduced its reliance on imported coal, with production from its captive mines rising by 29.4% YoY and imports dropping by 50% YoY. Despite a 3.4% YoY decrease in average tariff from April to September 2023, the firm offset it by increasing its electricity generation by 5.6% YoY in Q2FY24.

    BOB Capital says that the company's strategic shift towards renewable energy makes it a solid player in the green energy sector. Due to this diversification, the brokerage believes that the company is well-positioned in the power generation space. It maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    16 Nov 2023, 10:39PM

    Chart of the week: Superstar investors’ net worth recovers over the past two quarters after a volatile FY23

    By Bhavani Eswar

    Retail investors often look to superstar investors for insights on which stocks and sectors are worth investing in. Some even invest in shadow portfolios to follow the strategies of these investors. In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyse top superstar investors’ net worth over the past four quarters using data from Trendlyne’s Superstar investor dashboard.

    Despite the Indian equity market’s high volatility, the net worth of most superstar investors rose over the past year. 

    The Indian Volatility Index, Nifty VIX, saw significant fluctuations and increased by 7.6% and 13.5% in December 2022 and January 2023, respectively. This heightened volatility and the muted performance by the Nifty 50 led to many superstars registering negative returns in Q3 and Q4FY23. The Nifty 50 fell by almost 2% in each quarter during this period.  

    Superstar investors’ winning formula: low-debt stocks with high returns 

    Top holdings drive superstar investors' net worth growth in the past year

    Despite the high volatility in Q3 and Q4FY23, the one-year change in most superstar investors’ net worth has increased significantly overall. Their strategy of staying invested and adding investments when markets fell, has helped most superstar investors’ net worth grow in the past year.  

    Rekha Jhunjhunwala leads the pack with a 209% surge in her net worth. This steep growth is largely due to inheriting her late husband Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio and consistently increasing her stake in Titan. In addition, Titan and Tata Motors, her top two holdings, have risen by 24% and 57% over the past year. 

    An interesting trend among these investors is their preference for companies with low or no debt. For instance, Vijay Kedia’s top three holdings, Atul Auto, Tejas Network, and Elecon Engineering Company, which form half of his portfolio, either have minimal debt or are debt-free. This strategy of combining low debt with high revenue growth has yielded results for him. 

    Mid and small-cap stocks, known for their higher risk-reward ratio, have delivered high returns to investors like Kedia. Two of his top three holdings have risen by almost 100% over the last year. Kedia’s net worth increased by 65% and 40% in Q1 and Q2FY24, respectively. Overall, his portfolio has grown by 88% over the past year, making him the second-best performer after Rekha Jhunjhunwala.

    The portfolios of many superstar investors are dominated by stocks from sectors like retailing, banking and finance, and textile apparel. More than 70% of these portfolios have exposure to these sectors. The average revenue growth for the top holdings of Ashish Kacholia, and Anil Kumar Goel over the past three years has exceeded 100%. Consequently, their net worth has increased significantly, by 38% and 35%, respectively, in the past year.

    Monish Parbai and Nemish Shah have seen moderate growth  in their net worth due to the subdued performance of their top holdings like Sunteck Realty and Lakshmi Machine Works. 

    Sunil Singhania’s portfolio has 28 stocks spread across sectors like software and services, metals and mining, and consumer durables. Two of his top three holdings have risen by over 100%, contributing to his net worth rising by more than 30% in the past year.

    In contrast, two superstar investors, Dolly Khanna and Radhakishan Damani, have reported a decline in net worth over the past year. More than 95% of Radhakishan Damani’s portfolio was invested in Avenue Supermarts which fell by 8% last year. Dolly Khanna, on the other hand, cut her stake in several holdings in Q3 and Q4FY23, leading to a fall in her net worth. 

    Superstar investors are not immune to market volatility. But while their portfolios fell in Q3 and Q4FY23, in line with the broader market, have bounced back strongly since then. 

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