PCBL Ltd. share price forecast

PCBL’s Q4FY22 EBITDA disappointed on higher other expenses, but gross profit/kg improved QoQ which is good. PCBL’s management sounded bullish on the carbon black cycle with favourable demand supply, and anticipates an upside risk to both volumes and spreads in the coming period.

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PCBL had fixed April 12, 2022 as the record date for stock split in the ratio of 1:2 i.e. one existing share of face value | 2 gets sub-divided into two shares of FV | 1 each. The ex-date for stock spilt is April 11, 2022 On the ex-date i.e. starting today (April 11, 2022), the stock price will adjust for stock split ratio and is expected to trade at | 120/share i.e. half the closing...

We initiate coverage on PCBL with a BUY rating and target price of Rs300, valuing the stock at 12x FY24E PE. PCBL has recalibrated after challenging times till FY14. It is strengthening its business model; re-innovated with an emphasis on R&D, and is seeing structural tailwind from reduced China concern.

Net sales for Q2FY22 were at | 1067.6 crore with carbon black sales volume at ~116 KT, up 7% QoQ and consequent EBITDA/tonne at ~| 16,150 Consequent PAT in Q2FY22 was at | 121.5 crore, up 16.5% QoQ...

Net sales for Q1FY22 were at | 1004 crore with carbon black sales volume at 109 KT, down 3% QoQ and consequent EBITDA/tonne at ~| 15,000 Consequent PAT in Q1FY22 was at | 104 crore, down 18% QoQ...

As per industry estimates, as of FY20, domestic effective capacity of carbon black is pegged at ~11 lakh tonne with domestic consumption pegged at ~9.5 lakh tonne, thereby implying industry operating at ~85%+ utilisation levels. On the import-export front, carbon black exports in FY20 were at ~1.4 lakh tonne, with imports at ~1.9 lakh tonne, implying net imports of ~0.5 lakh tonne. Going forward, carbon black demand is expected to grow to ~11.5-12 lakh tonne by FY23E, implying incremental demand of ~2-2.5 lakh tonne. With ~1 lakh tonne of surplus capacity being put up by PCBL's...

Philips carbon Black Limited (PCBL) is a leading player for carbon black with customers across the globe. It is India's largest carbon black manufacturer, with four state-of-the-art plants at Durgapur, Palej, Kochi and Mundra. The company has a production capacity of 571,000 Metric Tonnes (MT) per annum with a dedicated capacity for specialty black of 40,000 MT. It also generates 76MW of green power from its cogeneration plants located across its manufacturing units. The company has presence in more than 40 countries to meet specific endrequirements across rubber, plastics, coatings, inks and other niche products. PCBL (TN), a wholly owned subsidiary of PCBL has been incorporated for...

We interacted with the Phillip Carbon Black (PCB) management to get an update on company operations, post a stellar Q3 results (PAT up 80%YoY to Rs1.25bn). Management highlighted that record volumes including Specialty Carbon Black, supportive market conditions (given closure of ~30% Chinese supplies) and low cost inventory aided profitability and the trend is expected to sustain for next 2 quarters. Capacity expansion plans remain on track and company expects incremental sales volumes of 100-110K MT over FY22-23E post which the 150K MT greenfield capacity will drive growth beyond FY24E....

As per industry estimates, as of FY20, domestic effective capacity of carbon black is pegged at ~11 lakh tonne with domestic consumption pegged at ~9.5 lakh tonne, thereby implying industry operating at ~85%+ utilisation levels. On the import-export front, carbon black exports in FY20 were at ~1.4 lakh tonne, with imports at ~1.9 lakh tonne, implying net imports of ~0.5 lakh tonne. Going forward, carbon black demand is expected to grow to ~11.5-12 lakh tonne by FY23E, implying incremental demand of ~2-2.5 lakh tonne. With ~1 lakh tonne of surplus capacity being put up by PCBL's...

Unlike other automobile segments viz. 2-W, PV that are more linked to discretionary spend and have witnessed near secular growth over the past decade, CV demand is more cyclical and is governed by economic cycles. In the recent past, post FY19, the Indian CV space has been adversely impacted by several factors like revised axle load norms, efficient goods transport due to GST, slowing domestic economic activity and tighter financing availability due to NBFC crisis. Covid disruption from March 2020 onwards further added to industry woes with FY21E volumes in the M&HCV;...

30% of revenue and 70% from domestic market. Company is currently focusing on value added products (specialty chemical segment) and has...

Phillips Carbon Black (PCBL) reported a steady performance in a Covid impacted Q1FY21. Net sales for the quarter were at | 360 crore, down 61% YoY. Carbon black sales volume for the quarter came in at ~51,300 tonne, down 52% YoY with blended realisation at | 68/kg vs. | 83/kg in base quarter. PCBL reported positive EBITDA and PAT prints despite a steep decline in sales volume and value. EBITDA in Q1FY21 was at | 39 crore with EBITDA margins at 10.7% (EBITDA/tonne at ~| 7,500/tonne). PAT in Q1FY21 came in at | 2.3 crore. The company guided for near normalcy in operations...

Specialty grade CB is a margin accretive product and difficult to crack amid global dominance by a few players. PCBL, through its years of R&D; and capability building process, has made a mark in this field and clocked ~20,000 tonne (~5% of total CB sales volume) from this division in FY19. Going forward, with incremental capacities in place, the company is well poised to outperform its base business growth with speciality grade CB sales volume growing at a CAGR of 26% in FY19-22E to 40,000 tonne in FY22E (~9% of total volume). This will augment its EBITDA margins to 15.6% in...

Phillips Carbon Black (PCBL) reported a de-growth of 2% YoY in top-line at `8630mn led by lower revenue in carbon black segment. Sales volume in both rubber carbon black and specialty carbon black segment improved 2-4% YoY however pricing pressure in specialty...

Higher share of replacement demand in tyre to protect volumes Carbon black is used as a reinforcing agent in manufacturing tyres and constitutes ~26% of tyre by volume. Tyres industry by virtue of having higher share of replacement demand (~60% of sales) vs. the OEM sales (~30% of sales) is somewhat insulated from the prevailing slump in vehicle sales domestically and is expected to steadily grow at a CAGR of 7%+. This ensures healthy carbon black demand with PCBL as a natural beneficiary which is a market leader domestically with a market share of ~35%....