Coal India Ltd. share price target

Structural changes in the domestic energy's landscape are likely to keep volume growth muted: CIL reported a 4% YoY increase in coal production to 198 MT in Q1FY27, driven by steady thermal power demand in the quarter. While CIL is targeting 1 billion tonnes of annual coal production through the development of 117 mining projects with a cumulative capacity of 979 MT, backed by a capex of ~1.2 lakh crore. In addition, the company is enhancing its coal evacuation capabilities through first-mile connectivity projects, dedicated railway infrastructure, and greater...

We maintain our BUY rating

Coal India’s (COAL) 1QFY27 revenue stood largely in line at INR462b (+8% YoY and flat QoQ), driven by higher volume offtake. Adj. EBITDA (excluding OBR expenses) stood at INR102b, declining 9% YoY and 17% QoQ, against our estimate of INR118b.

Apr'26 volumes were soft, inventory drawdown underway Strong e-auction premiums and declining power plant stocks signal firm demand and tightening supply Apr'-26 volumes were soft (production -10% YoY, offtake -2% YoY), due to inventory reduction (~130mt as on Mar-26 vs. ~107mt YoY), supporting working capital and cash flows. E-auction premiums remained strong at ~51% over notified prices (vs. ~45% in Mar'26 and ~35% in Feb'26), reflecting firm spot demand and supported by higher import parity (Apr'26 Indonesian coal 6332kcal at ~US$103/t, +2% MoM). Downstream...

Financials restated, EBITDA slightly better than estimates: Revenue grew +6% YoY to INR464bn in Q4FY26, driven by 29% YoY increase in coal-related levies following Operationally, offtake volumes stood at 199mt (-1% YoY) and blended ASP softened ~1% YoY to INR1,598/t, impacted by weaker realizations in both FSA and e-auction segments. Notably, e-auction volumes increased to 14% of total offtake (vs. 11% YoY), although realizations declined 7% YoY to INR2,203/t. Despite modest volume and pricing pressure, EBITDA (ex-OBR) grew 8% YoY to INR123bn, outperforming estimates by 4 improving 60bps YoY to 26.5%. PAT increased 12% YoY to INR109bn, aided by stronger...

We maintain our BUY rating.

Operation spanning 85 mining areas across eight states, currently owing 310 mines including 129 underground, 168 opencast and 13 mixed mines. Q4FY26 Results: CIL reported steady performance in Q4FY26. Revenues for the quarter stood at 46,490 crore (up 6% YoY) with coal sales volume of 199 million tonne (MT) (down 1% YoY). Reported EBITDA in Q4'26 stood at 12,673 crore with margins at 27.3%, up ~12 bps YoY. EBITDA/tonne for Q4FY26 came in at 636 vs. 593 in Q4FY25. PAT for Q4'26 stood at 10,908 crore. It declared a final dividend...

The company has retrospectively restated the FY24/25 financials following an audit-led reassessment of coal levy accounting, shifting certain levies from agent to principal basis.

COAL’s production in FY26 declined 1.6% YoY to 768mt, while offtake was down 3% YoY at 735mt, the muted volume was primarily attributed to increased competition from captive/merchant coal producers, subdued thermal power plant demand and high inventory levels.

Coal India reported moderate Q3FY26 results, driven by softer operational stability, improved evacuation infrastructure, higher mechanisation and diversification into renewables and critical minerals, alongside downstream integration initiatives and stronger digital mine management practices. Continued investments in clean energy projects, mineral diversification and logistics optimisation could support medium-term sustainability while maintaining coal's strategic relevance. Looking ahead, an intense early summer is expected to accelerate power demand and drive a sharp recovery in coal offtake, offsetting the subdued performance seen earlier in...

We upgrade the stock from HOLD to BUY rating.

Despite a recent slowdown in volume, Coal India is positioning itself for long-term sustainable growth through strategic diversification into coal gasification, critical minerals, and renewable energy. This is further supported by a robust net-cash-positive B/S and a strong dividend yield of ~7%. Consequently, we maintained a BUY rating on Coal India, thereby...

We maintain our HOLD rating.

Revenue for 3QFY26 came at INR349b (-5% YoY and +16% QoQ) against our est. of INR345b. The decline was mainly led by muted volume during this fiscal.

We maintain our HOLD rating.

Marred by extended monsoons coal-based thermal power generation touched a ~30-mth low of 99.29GW in Sep’25, dampening the thermal coal off-take volume.

Revenue for 2QFY26 came at INR302b (-2% YoY and -16% QoQ), against our estimate of INR299b. The decline was mainly led by muted volume.

India’s total installed power capacity reached ~490GW as of Jul’25, grew at 7.8% CAGR over the past 15 years. Renewable energy (~237 GW, 49% share) has surpassed thermal capacity (~220 GW, 44% share), where RE and thermal grew at 10.9% and 6.5% CAGR, respectively, over the past 15 years.

Coal India Ltd (CIL) is one of the largest coal producer in the world, with its output totalling 781 million tonnes (MT) in FY2025. It aims to increase coal production to 1 billion tonnes by FY2028-29. The company has 14 fully owned subsidiary companies...

Q1FY26 consolidated revenue of Rs. 35,842 crore was down 1.7% y-o-y. Volume saw a de-growth while the realization was almost flat y-o-y.