Q1FY21 revenue from operations drop 31.8% YoY to Rs. 17,007cr, owing to lower demand from power sector, as commercial establishments such as offices and factories largely remained shut during the quarter owing to lockdown. FSA revenues of raw coal went down 22.2% YoY at Rs. 13,896cr as sales volume registered a 21.6% YoY decline to 102.2mt. However, average FSA realizations decreased marginally to Rs. 1,360/ton (-0.8% YoY). Similarly, E-Auction revenue of raw coal took a hit reaching Rs. 2,535cr (38.2% YoY) due to lower sales volume of 15.87mt (-16.7% YoY) and lower average realization of 1,598/ton. The washed coking coal revenue fell 47% YoY to Rs. 177cr during the quarter, due to lower sale volume of 0.3mt (-35.4% YoY) and decrease in...

YTD, both production, offtake remain lower YoY In the current fiscal (YTD), the company witnessed a muted trend in both production and offtake volumes. During April-August 2020 (YTD), CIL reported production of 195.5 MT (down 7.0% YoY) while offtake during the period was at 208.4 MT (down 13.4% YoY). During the current fiscal, August 2020 is the only month where the company was able to report growth in production and offtake on a YoY basis. For August 2020, CIL's coal production increased 7.1% YoY to 37.2 MT (34.7 MT in August 2019) while...

Receivables fell 10% in August'20 v/s June'20 to Rs210bn Coal India (COAL) reported Q1FY21 EBITDA in line with our expectation. In spite of attractive valuations (EV/EBITDA at 2.5x FY22e), stock would continue to remain under pressure due to frequent stake sale by Govt and pressure on profitability in E-auction (contributes>50% of EBITDA) in light of weak global prices and sluggish demand. Release of additional supplies due...

5 September 2020 Coal Indias (COAL) 1QFY21 results highlight the impact of lower volumes/ e-auction realizations amid subdued thermal power demand. Adj. EBITDA (ex-OBR) was down 63% YoY. Muted power demand has impacted off-take and e-auction realizations. However, we expect Coal India to tide over the situation given its large cash INR190/share based on 3.5x Sep21 EV/EBITDA. 1QFY21 Adj. EBITDA (ex-OBR) was down 63% YoY to INR28b (in-line) on account of lower off-take/e-auction realizations. While FSA realization at INR1,359/t was below our est. INR1,400/t, it was offset by higher mix of e- auction volumes at 15.9mt (v/s est. Revenue declined 26% YoY to ~INR185b (v/s est.

During Q4FY20, The company has reported Consolidated total income to Rs.27,568.23 crore. Down by 3.56 % as compared to Q4FY19. Profit before tax (PBT) in Q4 FY20 stood at Rs 7447.40 crore, down by 16.2% from Rs 8892.35 crore in Q4 FY19. Tax expense fell 1.54% to Rs...

Coal India (CIL) reported a mixed set of Q4FY20 numbers. EBITDA came in higher than our estimate while reported PAT came in lower than our estimate. PAT came in lower than our estimate on the back of higher-thanexpected effective tax rate. CIL reported sales volumes of 164 million tonne (MT), flattish YoY. Fuel supply agreement (FSA) sales volume was at 139.2 MT (142.4 MT in Q4FY19) while FSA realisation during the quarter was at | 1446/tonne (| 1460/tonne in Q4FY19). E-auction volumes were at 21.0 MT (16.7 MT in Q4FY19) while e-auction realisations were at | 2106/tonne (| 2754/tonne in Q4FY19). Total operating income was at | 27568.2 crore...

29 June 2020 Coal India (COAL)s results highlight the impact of lower e-auction realizations and flattish volumes amid subdued thermal power demand. FSA realizations, though, have continued the improvement demonstrated over the past year on account of better grade quality. Muted power demand would impact off-take and e-auction realizations in the near term. However, we expect Coal India to tide over the situation price of INR189/sh based on 3.5x Sep21 EV/EBITDA. ~INR66b) due to lower e-auction realizations and muted power off-take. The beat on our estimates was driven by better-than-expected FSA realizations and a higher mix of e-auctions in the off-take. Volumes were flat YoY at ~164mt (in-line). Cash cost (ex-OBR) decreased 1% YoY at INR981/t. FSA volumes declined 2% YoY to 139.2mt. Realizations came in higher grade realization. E-Auction volumes rose 26% YoY to 21mt. Conversely, realizations were down 24% YoY to INR2,105/t.

28 May 2020 COAL has reduced production given the build-up in inventories at its own mines and power plants. Dispatches for COAL have increased over the past one week, even as power demand recovers and factories restart operations. As demand continues to recover and given the current focus on OBR, the company believes it would be in a better position to ramp up production. Of the ~170-180mt imported thermal coal in India, COAL plans to substitute ~100mt, thereby looking to improve off-take. ~18mt of coal has been auctioned and committed for off-take (as part of its import substitution drive). COAL has noted that it expects thermal power demand to continue at least for the next 10-15 years in the country. Accordingly, it plans to increase production to 1b ton over the next 3-5 years. While COAL is still finalizing its investment plan, it has set FY21 capex target at INR120b, which might increase in the coming years.

2 April 2020 Coal Indias (COAL) dispatches declined 10.3% YoY to 53.5mt in Mar20 due to a sharp fall in demand from the power sector. Indias nation-wide lockdown comes at a time when (a) power demand has mines has been ramped up following a heavy monsoon season. Accordingly, inventories at both coal mines and power plants have risen (refer to Exhibits 1/2) a general trend at the onset of summer, but higher than usual. On the other hand, with Industrial and Commercial consumers accounting for nearly ~50% of Indias power demand, generation has been severely dented over the past one week. Furthermore, given the must-run status for renewables in the country, the brunt of the demand decline is being borne by coal-based plants. Generation from coal-based plants fell ~40% YoY over March 25 (Exhibit 4). On account of such a sharp demand drop and higher coal inventories at power +6.5% YoY) (Exhibit 5).

At current level, the company is attractively trading at ~2.6x FY22 EV/EBITDA and 5.3x FY22 P/E. We reiterate our BUY rating with a roll forward target price of Rs. 202 based on 3.5x FY22E EV/EBITDA. FSA sales volume boosts topline QoQ Coal India's Q3FY20 revenue grew 13.8% QoQ to Rs. 23,190cr (-7.4% YoY), primarily driven by higher revenue from FSA and other operating income, which increased 20.6% QoQ and 16.3% QoQ, respectively. E-Auction's revenue declined 17.5% QoQ (38.1% YoY) due to lower sale volume of 9.8mt (-36.5% QoQ; -32.8% YoY), partially offset by higher average realization at Rs. 2,623/t (+29.9% QoQ; -7.9% YoY). FSA's...

Coal India Ltd is the largest coal producing company in the world. The company also produces non-coking coal and coking coal of various grades for diverse applications. The company's customer include large thermal power generation companies, steel and cement producers and other industrial companies in the public and private sector with many...

During the YTD current fiscal, CIL's production and offtake volumes witnessed a muted trend. One of the reasons for the same is extended monsoons. Production volume for the first 10 months (April-January 2020) of FY20 were at 451.5 million tonnes (MT) (down 3.9% YoY). Similarly, offtake volumes for April-January 2020 were at 473.3 MT (down 4.8% YoY). Going forward, we maintain our offtake volume assumption of 600 MT for FY20E and 625 MT for FY21E. CIL's offtake volume for FY19 was at 608 MT. EBITDA margins to hover around ~21-22%......

After 3 quarters of muted Rs 4bn revenue runrate, CIL is returning back to growth path. With Govt order book (49% in mix) moving into execution from 4QFY20, CIL will start delivering strong execution. EBIDTA margin expansion of 100-150bps may play out as number of sites is coming down and average order value is going up. Gross debt is stable at Rs 2.8bn though CIL needs to bring down unbilled revenue. We Maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Slowdown in real estate (2) Delay in debtors recovery & (3) Slowdown in Government Capex. Capacite Infraprojects Ltd (CIL) delivered Rev/EBIDTA/PAT beat of (1.2)/9.8/8% respectively. Despite this, headlines numbers remain weak, resulting in 15/3/5% cut to our FY20E Rev/EBIDTA/APAT estimate. We believe 3QFY20 execution has bottomed and recovery is expected from 4QFY20. We maintain BUY on CIL with an increased TP of Rs 360/sh (12.8x FY21E EPS).

12 February 2020 Coal Indias (COAL) results highlight the impact of lower volume offtake amid subdued thermal power demand. FSA realizations though were higher YoY on account of increased share to non-power and better grade. Production at the companys mines has started to ramp up post heavy monsoon, and we expect offtake to improve as power demand recovers. The stock trades attractively at ~3x FY21E EV/adj. EBITDA and offers a dividend yield of ~10%. Maintain Buy with a target price of INR258/sh. EBITDA (ex-OBR) declined 22% YoY to ~INR62b (our driven better-than-expected realizations. Other income rose 21% YoY to decline in sales volumes. Volumes were down 8% YoY at ~142mt (in-line). FSA volumes declined 6% YoY to 127.7mt. However, realization was up 6% YoY at INR1,411/t due to higher non-power segment sales and better grade realized. E-auction volumes declined 33% YoY to 9.8mt.

Volumes revived in Q4; low base to help volumes grow 5%+ in FY21E Coal India (COAL) reported Q3FY20 EBITDA in line with our expectation. Impacted by extended monsoon and local issues, volumes fell 8%YoY/6%YoY in Q3FY20/9MFY20. Volumes improved meaningfully December onwards with growth at 6% on the back of better condition of mines (after heavy rains), receding contractor and local level issues. In spite of weakness in E-auction...

to 17.7%. Thus, Operating Profit (OP) dropped 16% to Rs 3,611.16 crore. Performance for quarter ended September 2019 Coal India (CIL) total income from operation dropped 7% to Rs 20,382.63 crore for the second quarter ended September 2019, due to softer sales volume as prolonged rains disrupted...

Coal India (CIL) reported a steady set of Q2FY20 numbers. Higher-thanexpected FSA realisations supported overall earnings for the quarter. The company reported a sales volume of 122 million tonne (MT) (down ~11% YoY). FSA sales volume came in at 104 MT (broadly in line with our estimate of | 105 MT) while FSA realisations during the quarter was at | 1439/tonne (up 5% QoQ, higher than our estimate of | 1350/tonne). E-auction volumes came in at 15 MT (broadly in line with our estimate of 14 MT) while the eauction realisations were at | 2020/tonne (down 6% QoQ, broadly in line with our estimate of | 2000/tonne). The company reported a total operating income of | 20383 crore, down 7% YoY. EBITDA came in at | 3611.2 crore,...

12 November 2019 INR191b) in 2QFY20 due to lower sales volumes (-11% YoY at ~122mt, in-line). However, FSA realization was up 12% YoY on account of higher sales to the non-power sector and lower grade slippage. Cash cost (ex-OBR) increased 8% YoY to INR1,318/t, given negative operating leverage on lower volumes. The companys wage bill was up 1% YoY at INR90.7b. The beat was driven by increased FSA realization and higher-than-expected e- auction volumes. PBT declined 16% YoY to INR42.8b. Adj. PAT, however, was up 14% YoY to For 1HFY20, adj. EBITDA/PBT were up 1% YoY at INR117b/INR113b. Adj. PAT increased 19% YoY to INR81.5b on a lower tax rate. Cash flow from operations post tax though was down 46% YoY at INR49.

Tax rate fell by 1100bps to 28% as its five subsidiaries adopted new rate Coal India (COAL) reported Q2FY20 EBITDA above our estimates by 9% on the back of better than expected FSA realisations. Though the performance on volumes remained disappointing, company succeeded to offset the impact partially by enhancing FSA realisations through improvement in grades and higher realisations on auction of linkages in non-power segment. Admittedly, volume growth would hold the key as the performance stands unjustified in light of two major rail lines (loading incremental 20mtpa or 3.5% growth over...

Besides, even if India were to realize its true potential of ~150GW of hydro, this would imply incremental generation (at 40% PLF) of just 390BU which is not sufficient to even meet incremental demand over the next five years. Our demand-supply model for thermal coal implies demand CAGR of 6% over FY19-24 to reach 1.2bt (Exhibit COAL is trading at an FY20 FCF yield of ~9% and an EV/EBITDA of ~3x. Even if one were to make conservative assumptions of (1) capping COALs production at 710mt from FY22 and (2) a fall in share for COAL in domestic coal consumption to 50% in FY31 (68% in FY19), the PV of COALs 12-year cash flows would be equivalent to its current market cap (Exhibit implies Indias renewable capacity would reach ~310GW by FY31 (accounting for ~100% of the countrys avg.