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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    21 May 2025
     What CEOs are saying about FY26 | Screener: Stocks gaining momentum after Q4 results

    What CEOs are saying about FY26 | Screener: Stocks gaining momentum after Q4 results

    By Tejas MD

    Financial markets have a way of surprising you. Just when everyone was talking about the Nifty 50 being stuck in a correction, the index pulled a fast one, breaking through the psychological 25,000 mark on May 15 and now hovering around 5% of its all-time highs.

    A sharp 14% rebound from April lows is a reminder of how fast momentum can flip.

    Not everyone is celebrating yet. As Q4 earnings come in and global trade concerns grow, especially with renewed talks about US tariffs, many CEOs are showing more caution than confidence. Volatility remains high, and most CEOs seem to be in a “wait-and-watch” mode as they look ahead to FY26.

    It’s a bit like getting stuck in Bangalore traffic after a downpour—you know you’ll start moving at some point, but for now, all you can do is sit tight and hope the road clears soon.

    In this Week’s Analyticks,

    • Cautious but not quiet: What CEOs are betting on for FY26
    • Screener: Stocks gaining momentum after net profit and operating profit margin improvements in Q4FY25

    Uncertain times, cautious optimism: What CEOs are saying about FY26

    Caution has been the dominant tone in Q4FY25 earnings calls, as global uncertainties—especially US tariff developments—cast a shadow over an otherwise strong financial performance by Indian companies. 

    Despite good Q4 results, management commentary was quite guarded, even when analysts pushed management to stick their necks out. CEOs across sectors signaled the need for more “clarity” in economic developments.

    We used Trendlyne’s ‘Discover’ tool to track the key concerns CEOs raised in these earnings calls.

    Many leaders have pinned hopes on a sharp turnaround in the second half of FY26. Bajaj Finserv’s President, S. Sreenivasan, put it plainly, “We believe the geopolitical and external environment will be volatile in the first half of FY26, but we are very cautiously optimistic about H2 of the coming year when we should come back to growth”. 

    Uncertainty and caution lead earnings call themes in Q4

    Optimism hasn’t entirely vanished. CEOs highlighted strong demand trends—especially in FMCG, paints, and chemicals—as reasons for confidence. Domestic demand is proving resilient.

    Most FMCG companies are upbeat about demand in FY26, thanks to softer food inflation, tax and interest rate cuts, and expectations of a good monsoon.

    When asked about the outlook, Dabur CEO Mohit Malhotra said, “We are seeing green shoots in the business. So, I think food inflation is moderating. Going forward, sequential improvement is what we expect”. 

    While firms like JBM Auto, L&T, and Happiest Minds raised their FY26 guidance on strong Q4 results, tech majors Infosys, HCL Tech, and Wipro cut their growth forecasts, citing global uncertainty and weak client demand. 

    Tariff fog hangs over Q4 earnings calls

    Top CEO talking points: Trump and tariffs

    CEOs were on edge the previous quarter, but expected clarity on US tariffs by April 1st. But that clarity never came. As Q4 unfolded, Trump’s shifting stance on trade has kept the outlook murky.

    Many CEOs pointed to tariffs and delays in trade agreements as a drag on decision-making, with order bookings either delayed or paused altogether. Companies like Jindal Stainless and UltraTech Cement have responded by shifting focus to domestic markets.

    While explaining the dip in EBITDA per tonne, Jindal Stainless’s MD pointed to rising trade tensions as a factor. “Trade uncertainty picked up with Mr. Trump taking over. Many of our export bookings came under pressure or were put on hold, so we had to divert more volumes into the domestic market.”

    CEOs are concerned about macro issues

    Tech CEOs echoed these challenges. TCS CEO K. Krithivasan highlighted the inflationary impact of tariffs and the toll on IT spending: “Client IT budgets have remained flat.” CEOs are also raising slowdown and recessionary fears.

    FY26: CEOs are hopeful about lower inflation and a capex push

    Some CEOs sounded upbeat about FY26, pointing to easing inflation in India and early signs of a rebound in manufacturing and services. Management teams aren’t just talking up the outlook – they are backing it with spending.

    FY26 key priorities: what CEOs are focusing on

    Tata Steel, for instance, has announced a massive Rs 15,000 crore capital expenditure plan for FY26, which aims to drive expansion and launch new projects.

    Companies like Polycab are looking at exports to fuel the next growth phase. After a slowdown in the US, Polycab is actively targeting Europe, the Middle East and Australia, with plans to ramp up revenue from these regions in the coming year.

    CEOs highlighted growth pockets—especially in government contracts and pharma. For example, public sector demand has rebounded, benefiting firms like Blue Star and Netweb Technologies, after a Q3 slowdown due to elections. Blue Star’s CFO noted, “While the Industrial and BFSI sectors remained muted, government orders showed signs of revival during this quarter.”

    Industry opportunities: what are CEOs bullish about?


    In pharma, the spotlight was on new product launches. Cipla and Dr. Reddy’s focus on complex generics, while Alembic Pharma and Aarti Drugs are gaining momentum in API.

    Meanwhile, Trump’s May 12 executive order to make US prescription drug prices the lowest globally has sparked concern. But Indian generic drug makers aren’t too worried. 

    Morepen Lab’s CEO, Sushil Suri, said, “Thankfully, we’re in the generics space. These rules mainly target patented drugs, not us.” He added, “Even if President Trump wants to shake things up, the US has no alternative. They simply don’t have domestic manufacturing for generics—they rely on India.”

    One thread runs through commentary by CEOs across major companies: until there’s clarity on trade policy, management teams will delay some big decisions.


    Screener: Stocks gaining momentum after improvements in net profit and operating profit margin in Q4FY25

    Capital markets stocks’ operating margins rise in Q4

    As the Q4FY25 results season comes to a close, we look at stocks where profitability has improved YoY. This screener shows stocks with rising Trendlyne momentum scores MoM after YoY growth in net profit and operating profit margins in Q4FY25.

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the finance, healthcare services, capital markets, electric utilities, and electrical equipment/products. Major stocks that show up in the screener are BSE, Reliance Power, 360 One Wam, Premier Energies, IDBI Bank, Inventurus Knowledge Solutions, and IndiaMART InterMESH.

    BSE’s net profit surged 361.9% YoY during Q4FY25, with its operating profit margin expanding 32.5 percentage points to 60.5%. This capital markets company’s Trendlyne momentum score jumped MoM to 73.2. According to analysts at HDFC Securities, a 44.5% YoY reduction in regulatory fees and a Rs 109.4 crore return from provisions for the Settlement Guarantee Fund (SGF) helped improve profitability. 

    Reliance Power also shows up in the screener after its net profit grew 131.5% YoY in Q4FY25, with operating profit margin expanding 20 percentage points. This electric utilities company’s Trendlyne momentum score increased MoM to 63.7 post results. Its net profit and operating margin improved due to lower fuel consumption, finance, depreciation & amortisation, and generation & administration expenses. 

    You can find some popular screeners here.

    Signing off this week,

    The Trendlyne Team

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    The Baseline
    20 May 2025
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - May 20, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - May 20, 2025

    By Omkar Chitnis

    1. Tata Steel:

    ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this steel company and raises the target price to Rs 190, indicating an upside of 19%. Tata Steel’s EBITDA/tonne increased by Rs 1,000 QoQ in Q4FY25, up from Rs 600, due to higher selling prices and lower fixed costs.

    In Q4FY25, sales volume grew 3.3% YoY to 5.6 million tonnes, driven by higher production at the Odisha facility. Tata Steel Netherlands (TSN) reported a profit of Rs 120 crore in Q4FY25, compared to a loss in the same quarter last year.

    Analysts Amit Dixit and Mohit Lohia expect Tata Steel’s overall EBITDA to grow 47% to Rs 37,100 crore in FY26, driven by improvements in the UK business. They also expect profits to rise in Q1FY26 due to higher selling prices of Rs 3,000 per tonne in India and a reduction of fixed costs by Rs 1,800-2,000 per tonne.

    The management aims to reduce fixed costs by Rs 11,500 crore by FY27 across India, UK, and Netherlands operations. It expects cost reductions to help its Netherlands and the UK businesses break even by Q2FY26. The company plans to invest Rs 15,000 crore in capital expenditure in FY26 and reduce debt by Rs 3,000 crore.

    2. V-Guard Industries:

    Anand Rathi retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this electrical appliance company with a target price of Rs 475, indicating an upside potential of 25.1%. The company’s Q4FY25 revenue rose 14.5% YoY to Rs 1,538.1 crore, driven by strong growth in the electrical and electronics segments. Net profit grew 19.6% to Rs 91.1 crore due to lower interest costs.

    Analyst Prasheel Gandhi expects the company’s electronics vertical to maintain strong momentum, led by stabilizers, inverter batteries, and the solar rooftop segment. He anticipates the solar rooftop business will contribute significant revenue over the next 4–5 years.

    V-Guard Industries’ battery business revenue grew in double digits YoY in FY25. The management aims to increase battery capacity with an investment of Rs 50 crore and expects a revenue potential of Rs 300–400 crore in 2.5 years. The analysts project the company’s revenue and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 14.2% and 28.8%, respectively, over FY26–27.

    3. Bank of Baroda:

    Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 260, indicating an upside of 10%. In Q4FY25, Bank of Baroda’s net profit rose 3.3% YoY to Rs 5,048 crore. Treasury gains more than doubled to Rs 1,559 crore, supporting overall profitability and pushing return on assets (RoA) to around 1.2%. The analysts said, “We believe the bank is likely to sustain RoAs at ~1.0% in FY26 led by recoveries and higher treasury gains.”

    Net interest income (NII) declined 7% YoY in Q4FY25, while net interest margin (NIM) fell by 33 basis points due to lower loan yields and higher cost of funds. The analysts believe the pressure on NIMs and asset quality volatility can be managed through recoveries, treasury gains, and a better mix of loans and deposits. They also highlighted the bank’s focus on growing current account savings account (CASA) and retail term deposits, while cutting back on bulk deposits to support long-term growth.

    The bank’s gross non-performing assets (NPA) fell 10 bps YoY to 2.3% in the quarter. Analysts expect NII and net profit to grow by 8.5% and 2.8% over FY26–27, aided by stable asset quality.

    4. Vijaya Diagnostic Center:

    Emkay reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this healthcare services provider chain with a target price of Rs 1,150, indicating an upside of 24.6%. Analysts Anshul Agrawal and Abin Benny believe the next 2–3 years look promising, supported by the timely commissioning of new labs in non-core geographies (such as Pune, Kolkata) and management’s guidance of over 15% sales CAGR during FY26–28, despite the asset-heavy model.

    In Q4FY25, Vijaya Diagnostic’s revenue rose 12% YoY to Rs 173 crore, led by a 20% growth in the wellness segment, which contributed 15% of total revenue. However, the EBITDA margin declined by 90 bps YoY to 39.8% due to expansion-related costs. Agrawal and Benny expect margins to improve to 40.5% by FY28, backed by the management’s target to achieve breakeven within 12 months for each new lab.

    The company has commissioned two new labs in Q1FY26 and plans to add three more in the next 3–4 months. Analysts believe growth will also be supported by the management’s plan to increase prices by 1–2% across various test categories during FY26.

    5. Blue Jet Healthcare:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this pharma company with a target price of Rs 965, implying an upside of 21%. In Q4FY25, the company’s revenue grew 85.1% YoY to Rs 3,404 crore, driven by higher sales in pharmaceutical intermediates. Net profit rose 177% to Rs 1,101 crore, helped by new capacity additions and improved plant efficiency.

    Blue Jet's capex for FY25 stood at Rs 300 crore on research and development (R&D) and expansion of production capacity. Analysts Aman Chowdhary and Sumant Kumar expect strong revenue visibility in FY26, driven by rising demand for pharma intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). They project the revenue share from the pharma intermediates to rise to 25% by FY27, up from 17% in FY25, aided by expansion into new markets such as Canada, the US, and Europe.

    Analysts expect strong revenue growth from the API segment in FY26, driven by new product launches and increased production capacity. They project Blue Jet’s revenue and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 27% and 25%, respectively, over FY26–27.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    20 May 2025
    Which stocks did superstar investors sell in Q4FY25?

    Which stocks did superstar investors sell in Q4FY25?

    By Melissa Koshy

    The portfolio changes of superstar investors like RARE Enterprises, Ashish Kacholia, Sunil Singhania, and Vijay Kedia offer valuable insights into the market, especially during periods of volatility. Their buys and sells help investors identify potentially profitable sectors and stocks. Let’s take a look at the sells made by these superstar investors in Q4FY25.

    The chart below shows changes in superstar investors' current portfolio net worth (note that net worth reflects share price changes in current holdings and new buys and sells).

    Most superstars see a fall in their net worth in Q4FY25

    Previously, we focused on the key superstar buys in Q4FY25. Now, let's analyse their sells. The last quarter of FY25 turned volatile - most superstar investors remained cautious and increased stake sales, continuing the trend from the previous quarter. The chart below highlights their biggest sells during this period.

    Biggest sells by superstars in Q4FY25

    RARE Enterprises cuts a 2.1% stake in an edible oils maker

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio, currently managed by Rekha Jhunjhunwala and investment firm RARE Enterprises, reduced holdings in three companies during Q4. The portfolio’s net worth has risen by 24.4% to Rs 62,580 crore as of May 19, primarily due to the infusion from Inventurus Knowledge Solutions. It disclosed a 49.3% stake in the company when its IPO was listed on December 19.

    RARE Enterprises trims stake in three firms

    In the January-March quarter, the late big bull’s portfolio reduced its stake in Sundrop Brands by 2.1%. The portfolio held a 7% stake in the firm for two consecutive quarters. This edible oils maker has gained 13.3% in the past year, but underperformed its industry by 5.8% points.

    During the latest quarter, RARE reduced its stake by 0.3% in the department stores chain Baazar Style Retail, taking its holding to 3.4%. The company has declined by 26.7% over the past year, underperforming its industry by 38.5%. It also has an expensive valuation, scoring only 20.8 as per Trendlyne’s Valuation score.

    RARE Enterprises also cut its stake in Nazara Technologies by 0.2%, and now holds 7.1% in the internet software & services company. The portfolio has reduced its stake in the company for the past six quarters. Nazara has surged 102.9% in the past year. Trendlyne’s DVM score classifies it as an Expensive Rocket as it trades in the PE Sell Zone.

    Ashish Kacholia adjusts holdings in key sectors

    Ashish Kacholia’s net worth declined by 14.9% to Rs 2,670 crore as of May 19 as he dialled back on multiple stocks.

    Ashish Kacholia pares stakes in multiple companies in Q4

    During the latest quarter, Kacholia cut a 1.4% stake in Awfis Space Solutions, a special consumer services company. The company has weak financials and features in a screener of stocks with low Piotroski scores. The company is trading at an expensive valuation, suggested by Trendlyne’s valuation score of below 30, and is displaying a neutral momentum with Trendlyne’s momentum score of 39.

    The marquee investor reduced his stake in industrial machinery maker Walchandnagar Industries by 0.6%, taking his holding to 2.6%. Trendlyne classifies the company as an Expensive Performer. The company posted a loss of Rs 41.8 crore in FY24 and Rs 29.8 crore during 9MFY25. It has been reporting losses since FY13, except in FY23.

    High valuations, sustained FII selling, and weak market sentiment in mid- and small-cap stocks likely prompted Kacholia’s portfolio trimming in Q4.

    Kacholia cut a 0.2% stake in specialty chemical firm Yasho Industries during the quarter, and now holds 3.9%. The company’s share price has declined by 8% over the past year, underperforming its industry by 20.9% points. It has a low Durability score of 35 and an expensive valuation, scoring 10.3.

    During Q4, Kacholia offloaded 0.1% each in Vasa Denticity and Ami Organics. He held 3.8% and 1.8% stakes in the healthcare supplies and pharma companies in Q3FY25. Both companies feature in a screener of stocks with high PE (PE > 40).

    The ace investor also sold 0.1% each in Universal Autofoundry and Sanjivani paranteral. The auto parts & equipment maker and pharma stock feature in a screener of bearish stocks. Universal Autofoundry has underperformed its industry by 59.6% points in the past year. Sanjivani is currently trading in the Strong Sell Zone, indicating it is trading above its historical PE. 

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund cuts stakes in two firms to below 1%

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fundsaw its net worth fall by 14.9% to Rs 2,535.2 crore. The fund cut its holdings in two companies to below 1% and trimmed minor stakes in four others during Q4FY25.

    Singhania reduces holdings in BirlaNu, Uniparts and others

    Singhania’s fund reduced its holdings to below 1% each in cement & cement products maker BirlaNu and heavy electrical equipment firm Uniparts India. BirlaNu features in a screener of profit-to-loss companies (companies that moved from profit to loss QoQ). It has declined by 10.4% in the past year, underperforming its industry by 23.5% points. Uniparts ranks medium in Trendlyne’s checklist. It is currently trading in the Sell Zone.

    During Q4, Abakkkus Fund lowered its stake in Sarda Energy & Minerals by 0.3% and now holds 1.5% in the steel products maker. The company is a Mid-range Performer and also features in a screener of stocks where mutual funds decreased their holdings last quarter. 

    Singhania’s fund cut 0.1% each inauto parts makerShriram Pistons,specialty retail firmEthos,industrial machinery companyAnup Engineering, andIT consulting playerMastek in the March quarter. He now holds a 1% stake each in Shriram Pistons and Ethos, 3.6% in Anup Engineering and a 2.8% stake in Mastek. All four companies have declining net cash flows. Ethos and Anup Engineering have expensive valuation scores, while Shriram Pistons and Mastek have technically neutral momentum scores. 

    Vijay Kedia makes minor stake sales during Q4

    Vijay Kedia’s net worth decreased by 24.1% to Rs 1,440.2 crore as of May 19. During the quarter, he reduced his stake in auto parts maker Precision Camshafts from 3.2% in Q3 to 2.1%. Over the past year, the company’s share price fell 10.8%, underperforming its industry by 15.8% points.

    Kedia cuts his stake in Precision Camshafts, Tejas Networks and others

    During the quarter, Kedia also cut a 0.3% stake in telecom equipment maker Tejas Networks. He held a 1.9% stake for five consecutive quarters before reducing it to 1.3% in Q3FY25. The company’s share price declined by 38.4% over the past year and is classified as a Slowing Down Stock by Trendlyne.

    The ace investor further reduced his stakes in Global Vectra Helicorp and Sudarshan Chemical Industries by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, bringing his holdings to 4.9% and 1.3%. Global Vectra posted a loss of Rs 13.3 crore in 9MFY25 and a marginal profit of Rs 1.2 crore in FY24, while Sudarshan Chemicals is considered overvalued based on its current PE.

    Kedia also sold a minor stake in Elecon Engineering, now holding 1.1% in the industrial machinery manufacturer.

    Dolly Khanna cuts stakes in multiple companies

    Dolly Khanna reduced her holdings in eight companies during Q4FY25, including four where her stake fell below 1%. Despite the reductions, her net worth rose by 22.5% to Rs 557 crore as of May 19, supported by new additions and stake increases. She added two new companies, Polyplex Corp and GHCL, and increased her stake in seven others during the quarter.

    She lowered her stake in steel products maker Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys and oil exploration company Selan Exploration from 1.2% to below 1%. Over the past year, Indian Metals’ share price declined by 11.5%, while Selan Exploration dropped by 12.1%.

    Dolly Khanna cuts stakes in four companies to below 1%

    Khanna also reduced her stake in Nile and POCL Enterprises to below 1%. Both companies are currently in the PE Sell zone and appear in a screener of stocks with declining net cash flow.

    During the quarter, she trimmed her stake in Zuari Industries by 1.3%, bringing it down to 1.6%. Trendlyne classifies this sugar company as a Mid-range Performer due to its medium financial strength, valuation, and a neutral Momentum score.

    She also cut her stake in packaging firm Rajshree Polypack by 0.1%, now holding 1.1%. The company’s share price has fallen 27.5% over the past year, underperforming its industry by 74.5% points.

    Khanna made a minor reduction in Rajshree Sugars & Chemicals as well during the quarter.

    Porinju Veliyath reduces stake in an IT consulting firm to below 1%

    Porinju V Veliyath’s net worth fell 33.7% to Rs 196.2 crore as of May 19. During the quarter, he reduced his stake in IT consulting firm RPSG Ventures to below 1%, down from 1.4% in Q3. The company’s share price has fallen 6.1% over the last six months but is up 32.2% over the past year.

    Porinju pares stake in RPSG Ventures to below 1%; reduces holding in Kaya

    He also cut his stake in Kaya, a skincare clinic chain, to 1.3% after consistently holding 2.9% for the past three quarters. Kaya holds a medium rank on the Trendlyne Checklist and has a neutral momentum score of 47.8. Its share price has underperformed its industry by 48% points over the past year.

    Additionally, during the quarter, Veliyath marginally reduced his stake in Max India, a holding company.

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    The Baseline
    16 May 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - May 16, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - May 16, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Titan:

    This gems and jewellery major has seen a 7.8% increase in its share price over the past week. The rise is due to its Q4FY25 results, in which it reported an 18.8% YoY growth in revenue to Rs 15,032 crore, helped by higher sales across segments. Net profit grew 13% YoY to Rs 871 crore, driven by inventory destocking. 

    For the full year, Titan’s revenue was up 18.4% YoY at Rs 60,456 crore, beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 3.4%. However, net profit declined 4.6% to Rs 3,337 crore, due to higher raw material, employee benefits, depreciation, and advertising expenses.

    In Q4, the jewellery segment (which contributes over 88% to the total revenue) rose 25% YoY, driven by growth in ticket size. Meanwhile, Titan’s watches and wearables segment grew 20%, led by improved domestic analogue watch sales and strong growth in the Helios retail channel.

    Gold prices have surged around 35% YoY in FY25, prompting consumers to rethink jewellery purchases. Commenting on this, Ajoy Chawla, the CEO of the jewellery division, said, “Sentiment has weakened, especially in the sub-Rs 50,000 range, as more products move above that mark. I think more and more customers are going to be open to lower caratage as they adjust to higher prices.”

    Amid surging gold prices, consumers are opting for lightweight and lower carat jewellery (14K, 18K), with CaratLane launching 9K (9 carat gold is 37.5% pure gold, combined with metals like silver, copper, and zinc) pieces to attract value-focused buyers. Titan expects strong growth in its jewellery division, targeting 15–20% revenue growth in FY26. Tailwinds like more wedding dates and income-tax cuts are also expected to support demand.

    The company added 72 stores on a net basis during the quarter, taking its retail store count to 3,312. Titan holds an 8% market share in the Indian jewellery market and has been working on expanding its retail footprint. 

    JM Financial hasupgraded its rating on Titan to ‘Buy’ and set a higher target price of Rs 3,725. The brokerage believes the rise in gold prices has shifted consumer preference toward lower carat, lightweight jewellery with relatively lower making charges. A correction in gold prices could revive demand and support margin improvement.

    2. Berger Paints:

    This paints company has risen 7% in the past week after announcing its Q4FY25 results. Its revenue grew 7.3% YoY to Rs 2,720 crore, driven by strong performance in the decorative segment. It outperformed key rivals in revenue growth, with Asian Paints reporting a 4.3% decline and Kansai Nerolac posting just 2.7% growth. The company saw a 7.4% increase in sales volume and a 190 bps YoY rise in EBITDA margin, as strong demand for premium paints and lower raw material costs helped offset the impact of last year’s price cuts.

    For the full year, Berger Paints' revenue grew 3.1%, and net profit rose 1.1%, surpassing Forecaster estimates. The company gained market share, increasing from 19.5% in FY24 to 20.3% in FY25. MD & CEO Abhijit Roy highlighted that the fading impact of past price cuts is expected to narrow the gap between volume and value growth, supporting stronger value growth going forward.

    Speaking on expansion plans, Roy said, “We have a capex plan of around Rs 850 crore over the next two years. About Rs 400 crore will go towards commissioning our Hindupuram plant and phase-1 of the Panagar operations (new paint manufacturing facility) in FY26. Another Rs 250 to 350 crore is expected to be spent in FY27.”

    The company appears in a screener of stocks that benefit from lower crude oil prices. It rose 1.9% on May 5 after crude prices dropped nearly 4% on oversupply concerns following OPEC+’s production hike. Despite falling oil prices, the management isn’t in favour of price cuts, as rutile prices (a mineral used in paint pigments) are expected to rise due to the government’s new anti-dumping duty.

    Over the past year, Berger Paints' stock has risen 18.8%, outperforming its industry and the Nifty 50 index. The company's 5-year average P/E and forward P/E suggest the stock is undervalued. Its current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 56.5 is well below its 5-year average of 75.4. Based on analyst estimates, its forward PE is 58, suggesting potential for further upside.

    Post results, Dolat Capital assigned an ‘Accumulate’ rating with a target price of Rs 616. The brokerage expects Berger’s revenue to grow 11.4% over FY26–27, supported by a rebound in demand. This recovery will likely be driven by higher disposable incomes, easing inflation, and an above-average monsoon.

    3. Coromandel International:

    This fertilizers company surged 7.6% over the past week after its subsidiary, Coromandel Chemicals, entered into a joint venture with Sakarni Plaster to manufacture and market green building materials using phospho gypsum. The stock has been hitting new highs following its inclusion in MSCI’s Global Standard Index as part of the May 2025 review. Due to this inclusion, IIFL Alternate Research and JM Financial estimate passive inflows of over Rs 1,800 crore.

    In FY25, Coromandel reported a 10% YoY increase in revenue and 26% net profit growth, surpassing Forecaster estimates. This performance was aided by 15% volume growth and a decline in raw material costs. The company gets around 5% of its revenue from exports, mainly in the crop protection segment.

    Although margins per tonne of fertiliser produced dipped marginally this year to Rs 4,150, Coromandel has maintained its FY26 guidance of Rs 5,000. To achieve this, the company is focusing on backward integration to ease supply bottlenecks. As part of this strategy, it acquired a majority stake in Baobab Mining and Chemicals Corporation in Senegal, which supplies rock phosphate and is expected to meet one-third of the company’s requirements.

    Coromandel is scaling up its Nano DAP product, which can reduce the per acre usage of traditional DAP (a fertiliser) by half when mixed with one litre of Nano DAP. The company aims to increase sales of Nano DAP bottles 15-fold over the next 2–3 years, banking on rising domestic acceptance and export opportunities.

    Commenting on the outlook for FY26, MD & CEO Sankarasubramanian S said, “Our turnover for the next year can be on the high double-digit side, supported by a healthy profit margin, with the changing portfolio towards high-margin products.” 

    Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Coromandel and projects revenue growth of 12% and net profit growth of 23% in FY26, supported by stable agrochemical prices, improved inventory levels, and favourable weather across key regions. The brokerage also expects margins to improve over the next 2–3 years, driven by backward integration, higher demand, product innovation, and a strategic shift toward high-margin offerings in the crop protection segment.

    4. Canara Bank:

    This bank rose 13% over the past week after announcing its Q4FY25 results. During the quarter, the company’s net profit grew 28.3% YoY to Rs 5,070 crore and revenue increased 7.6%, driven by lower provisions and higher other income. The bank appears in a screener of stocks with decreasing provisions.

    Revenue rose 9.6% in FY25, and profit increased 14.8%, exceeding Forecaster estimates. Despite the rising profit, the net interest margin (NIM) contracted by 25 bps YoY to 2.8% in Q4, led by higher deposit costs and a decline in net interest income (NII).

    Canara Bank’s loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) improved by 47 bps YoY to 73.6% in Q4FY25 as deposit growth outpaced loan growth. Loans grew 11%, driven by housing and vehicle loan growth. The bank also improved its asset quality by reducing the non-performing assets (NPA) ratio by 57 bps to 0.7% in FY25, driven by lower slippages and higher loan recoveries.

    The company’s retail loan book increased 42.8% YoY, driven by a rise in retail gold loans from metropolitan customers after the bank discontinued agriculture gold loans. In April 2024, the RBI mandated that banks reclassify agriculture gold loans as retail gold loans.

    The bank’s decision to reduce its lending rate by 10 bps across home, personal, and auto loans, effective May 12, also drove the stock price higher.

    During the Q4 earnings call, Satyanarayana Raju, MD & CEO, outlined the growth roadmap for FY26. He said, “We are targeting 10–11% loan growth and 9–10% deposit growth in FY26. We aim to reduce gross NPAs to 2.5% and grow the retail gold loan portfolio to Rs 70,000 crore by the end of FY26, up from the current Rs 48,000 crore.”

    Post results, Emkay Global retains its ‘Buy’ rating on the bank. The broker expects stronger treasury gains and lower provisions to drive an ROA of 0.9–1.1% over FY27–28.

    5. Tata Elxsi:

    This IT consulting & software company rose over 8% in the past week due to the free-trade agreement between India and the UK. On May 14, Mercedes-Benz Research and Development India selected the company for Vehicle Software Engineering and Software-Defined Vehicles (SDV) development. 

    The company announced its Q4FY25 and full-year results on April 17. It reported a 12.5% YoY decline in net profit for Q4FY25, reaching Rs 172.4 crore, due to a rise in raw material and employee benefit expenses. Its revenue rose by 1.3% YoY and beat Forecaster's estimate by 3.9% due to strong growth in the domestic business. Tata Elxsi appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds have increased shareholding in the past month.

    In FY25, the company saw a decline in revenue from the US, while contributions from India and other global markets grew. Manoj Raghavan, MD and CEO, Tata Elxsi, regarding this said, “We have been investing and actually building relationships in the emerging markets over more than 4-6 quarters. This is not a knee jerk reaction; it is part of a well planned strategy. Our focus on exploring new markets has proven valuable in navigating the current challenges in both the US and Europe.”

    ICICI Securities upgraded Tata Elxsi to a ‘Reduce’ rating with a target price of Rs 4,250. The brokerage notes that while new deals offer short-term relief, structural and macroeconomic challenges persist amid tariff-related uncertainties. It expects margins to recover as growth rebounds in Q1FY26, with the onsite-offshore mix and contract structures (fixed price, time, and material) likely to remain stable.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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    The Baseline
    15 May 2025
    A car running on flat tires: Pakistan's economy is struggling

    A car running on flat tires: Pakistan's economy is struggling

    By Swapnil Karkare

    India just had one those weeks that reminds me of the Lenin line: “There are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen.” A terrorist attack took two countries to the brink of full-blown war and back. The 2025 conflict between India and Pakistan was different, or “dangerously different” from previous ones, as The Economist put it. 

    An unanswered question remains — why would Pakistan, with its economy on a ventilator, enter a fight it simply couldn't afford? Forget regional experts. Even checking with ChatGPT first would have helped:

    A screenshot of a chat

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

    But this assumes that Pakistan's leaders are rational actors. It's no secret that its economy has been in a dire state for a while now, with high inflation and unemployment, falling GDP growth, soaring debt, and barely enough reserves to buy a few weeks of imports. The country has clung to the life-raft of international aid — just a day before the ceasefire, the IMF handed Pakistan a billion dollars.


    A group of soldiers marching

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

    We take a closer look at what's happening with our troubled neighbour.


    Is the IMF hurting Pakistan?

    The IMF’s bailout of Pakistan made headlines on May 9. It released $1.3 billion, the second tranche of its $7 billion package. The Russia-Ukraine war has spiked commodity prices and pushed Pakistan’s import bill through the roof. With enough money for just two weeks of imports, the Pakistan rupee tumbled, and inflation surged past 30%, sending the government into panic mode.

    Many Indians were taken aback by IMF's willingness to give money to a country that has a long history of sheltering terrorists, from Osama Bin Laden to the Pahalgam attackers. But IMF has kept funding Pakistan to avert its bankruptcy and prevent regional chaos.

    Pakistan has been in a never-ending loop of crisis and bailout, rinse and repeat. This is the 24th bailout of its economy since 1958. Economist William Easterly has noted that bailouts to bad governments usually delay reforms and worsen poverty. Imagine giving a gambler a bottomless wallet: when a country knows that help will keep coming, it has little incentive to fix its root problems.

    The IMF must approve Pakistan’s FY26 (July ending) budget, scheduled in the first week of June, for it to go forward. Reports suggest that Pakistan is planning an 18% increase in defence spending. The fund’s bailout programme comes with conditions such as increasing tax revenue, and reducing wasteful expenditure. It will be interesting to see how the fund views this spending increase. 

    A grim comparison with India

    On one side, we have a country that runs on bailouts. On the other side is India, which has not taken money from the IMF since 1991. Pakistan's economy is barely one-tenth the size of India's. India's foreign exchange reserves are nearly double Pakistan's GDP. 

    The comparison between the two neighbours paints a harsh picture:

    A car running on flat tires? Pakistan has structural issues that need repair 

    High birth rates in Pakistan have led to a population boom, but it isn’t able to reap its benefits. For every 100 people working, 70 are dependents. This is a heavy load on family budgets, and has kept the national savings rate stubbornly low. 

    High GDP growth could have absorbed this pressure. But growth has been sluggish, and Pakistan's labour productivity ranks amongst the lowest globally. Years of ignoring education and healthcare have only made things worse.

    Pakistan has to import essentials like fuel, machinery, edible oils, and fertilisers, which make up nearly 60% of its total imports. To keep them affordable, it needs to stop the rupee from falling. That means selling dollars from its reserves. But instead of earning those dollars through exports, it borrows them from institutions like the IMF. And when it’s time to repay, it resorts to more bailouts and relief programs. 

    Pakistan's stock market reflected the costs of escalation

    Even if the IMF looked the other way, financial markets didn’t. The contrast was stark: relative calm in India, turmoil in Pakistan. That alone reflected the underlying difference in economic resilience. 

    Before Operation Sindoor, India had suspended the Indus Water Treaty, closed borders, and halted exports. Pakistan depends on the Indus basin for 80% of its farm water. Shashi Tharoor, a former Foreign Minister, said that Pakistan could run dry within four days in the event of a full-scale conflict. Moody’s also flagged that escalation could destabilise the economy and freeze foreign lending. 

    Between the Pahalgam attacks (April 22) and the ceasefire (May 9), Pakistan’s KSE-100 index dropped 13%, while India’s Nifty 50 stayed steady, up by 0.4%. On May 7, the day of Operation Sindoor, Indian markets opened lower – down by 0.6%, while KSE100 opened 6% lower. Post-ceasefire, both the markets rejoiced - Nifty 50 up by 3.8% from May 9, and KSE100 up by 13.3%, showing that the cost of conflict was simply too high for Pakistan.

    Glimmers of hope

    Indians shouldn't be rooting for Pakistan’s failure — a failed state tends to breed more terrorism, not less. The economy is very fragile right now, due to low productivity, poor human capital, and a dangerous dependence on imports and foreign lending.

    With the help of the IMF, the Pakistani economy showed signs of revival in 2024, post-bailout. In March 2025, the fund noted, “Pakistan has made significant progress in restoring macroeconomic stability.” Prices and exchange rates were stabilising, interest rates softening. 

    Fitch upgraded Pakistan from CCC+ to B- while projecting a stable outlook. In December 2024, the government even launched a five-year economic blueprint, focused on enhancing exports, and digital transformation. 

    The vibes around Pakistan’s economy were getting better. Morgan Stanley listed it as an ‘unexpected winner’, as the KSE100 index gained 84% in 2024. Portfolio manager, Steven Quattry said, “You don’t have to stretch your imagination to make an investment case for Pakistan”. Investors like BlackRock, Eaton Vance Corporation, Legal & General, and Evli raised stakes in Pakistani companies. 

    Guns vs. Butter

    So it is surprising that leaders acted the way they did amidst the country’s economic revival journey. Pakistan has risked losing not just manpower, infrastructure, and investors, but also long-term faith in its capability to revive itself.

    Pakistan is a classic case of the ‘guns vs. butter’ dilemma. Every rupee spent on defence is a rupee not spent on education, healthcare, or food. 

    For example, in the late 1980s, Pakistan’s defence spending peaked at 7% of GDP. World Bank economist Parvez Hasan calculated that if just half of that had gone to development instead, Pakistan’s GDP growth from 1970 to 2010 could have been 2 percentage points higher, and the economy could’ve been twice its current size.

    Frustration on the ground has been growing year after year. “They talk a lot, but we don’t see much change. It feels like they don’t understand what people are going through,” said a Pakistani student.Unless something dramatically changes, Pakistan’s economy will remain hostage to violence, underperformance and social instability - and a constant threat to India.

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    The Baseline
    14 May 2025
    Chart of the week:  From partnerships to diversification: Dixon Technologies powers ahead to new highs

    Chart of the week: From partnerships to diversification: Dixon Technologies powers ahead to new highs

    By Omkar Chitnis

    From the moment we wake up, devices shape our routines—the smartphone by our bedside, the TV in our living room, the washing machine humming in the background, and the laptop powering our workdays. In a world increasingly reliant on electronics, Dixon Technologies is seizing the chance to solidify its position as a leading player in the industry.

    Over the past year, this third-party consumer electronics manufacturer saw its shares reach new highs. Strong financial results, strategic partnerships with global brands, and a rapid expansion of production capacity, supported by India’s Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, have fuelled this growth.

    The company's share price tripled since January 2024, rising from Rs 6,500 in January 2024 to Rs 19,148 in May 2025 as it expanded its presence beyond electronics manufacturing services.

    Saurabh Gupta, CFO of Dixon Technologies, said, “India’s push for electronics manufacturing presents a $10 billion opportunity in IT hardware. We expect Dixon to grow in this segment at a rate of 35–40% annually in the next few years.”

    However, this optimism comes with a caveat. Dixon’s share price, with a P/E ratio of 122.6, is trading above the industry average of 85.1. Yet, it remains below the company’s historical averages. Dixon’s 5-year average P/E and forward P/E suggest the stock is still undervalued.

    In this edition of the Chart of the Week, we analyze the company’s price action from its early joint ventures (JVs) with global brands in 2024 to its recent diversification.

    Amid the reversal of US-China tariffs, companies like Apple and Alphabet view the tariff exemption as temporary relief. However, they plan to shift production to India to reduce dependency on a single country and mitigate future political risks. 

    Indian Electronics Manufacturing Service (EMS) companies like Dixon Technologies, Kaynes Technology, and PG Electroplast are capitalizing on this shift.

    Dixon’s new deals power growth in CY24, but policy shift cools momentum

    Dixon started CY24 with strong momentum, with its stock rising nearly 11.6% in February 2024, after commissioning a new manufacturing facility in Dehradun to produce washing machines for domestic and global players. The company also entered a contract manufacturing agreement with Compal Smart Device to manufacture mobile phones.

    Three months later, Dixon's stock rose 27.5% in June 2024 after it signed a JV agreement with HKC Corporation to manufacture Liquid Crystal Modules (LCM) for smartphones, TVs, and auto displays.

    However, Dixon’s momentum faced a temporary setback in July 2024 when the Indian government reduced import duties on mobile phones and chargers from 20% to 15%. While the move aimed to make devices more affordable for consumers, it raised concerns about increased competition from imported phones, potentially dampening the demand for Dixon’s local assembly services.

    Despite the import duty change, Dixon's management expressed optimism. Atul Lall, MD of Dixon Technologies, stated, “We are optimistic on the government's positive response to the production-linked incentives scheme in electronics manufacturing. The mobile manufacturing ecosystem in India has matured, and the changes in import duties do not affect India’s competitiveness or strength.”

    Following the brief downturn, Dixon’s stock regained momentum in September 2024, driven by its subsidiary Padget Electronics signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Asus India to manufacture IT products and laptops.

    After a series of agreements and MoUs, investors’ focus shifted to Dixon's Q2FY25 results. The stock gained after its net profit grew 263.2% YoY to Rs 389.9 crore on November 6, 2024, driven by higher mobile phone production and strong growth in the electronics manufacturing services (EMS) segment. Revenue rose 133.3% YoY to Rs 11,534 crore following its acquisition of an EMS provider, Ismartu, in mid-August.

    Saurabh Gupta, CFO at Dixon Technologies, stated, “The 56% stake in Ismartu India, with its strong presence in smartphones and feature phones, is expected to add Rs 7,000–8,000 crore to Dixon's revenue by FY27.”Currently, Dixon derives 9% of its total revenue from the US market, primarily through manufacturing Motorola phones. 

    Dixon's CY24 rally stalls in early CY25

    Building on a series of agreements and MoUs, Dixon Technologies' stock rose for six straight sessions in December 2024. The upward trend continued after it signed a JV with Vivo India to establish an original equipment manufacturing (OEM) business for Vivo's smartphones in the Indian market.

    Dixon delivered an impressive 173.6% return in CY24, driven by strong growth and expanding partnerships. However, the momentum faltered at the start of CY25. On January 8, the Tata Group announced an $18 billion investment to enter the electronics and semiconductor space, extending far beyond its existing work with Apple, which had started in 2023. This news led to a 12.2% drop in Dixon’s share price as investors reassessed the competitive landscape.

    Ekta Mittal, senior analyst at CCS Insight, notes, “Tata Electronics, looking to add clients like Xiaomi and Oppo, will intensify competition in the market, and a price war will follow. Smaller EMS players will find it difficult to match Tata’s scale, supplier deals, and end-to-end delivery capabilities.”

    Dixon’s challenges worsened on January 21, 2025, when it missed Q3FY25 net profit estimates by 18.5%, due to higher depreciation and interest costs. The stock plunged 13% as brokerages responded with caution. Jefferies maintained an “underperform” rating, while Goldman Sachs initiated a “sell,” pointing to steep valuations and signs of slowing growth.

    Despite a 7.4% decline in its stock price over the first four months of CY25, Dixon’s shares began to recover in late March 2025 after the company partnered with Signify Innovations (Philips Lighting) to expand its product portfolio in lighting products and accessories.

    In April, Dixon stock gained momentum on reports suggesting that Alphabet may shift part of its Pixel smartphone production from Vietnam to India due to higher US tariffs on Vietnamese goods than Indian goods. Dixon currently manufactures nearly 70% of Pixel phones in India, and the stock also rose following the government announcement of the Rs 22,919 crore PLI scheme for non-semiconductor electronic components.

    Dixon derives 89% of its revenue from mobile phone manufacturing. The company is expanding its product portfolio to include home appliances and consumer electronics to reduce its reliance on this segment.

    Dixon plans to invest Rs 1,000 crore in high-margin components such as camera modules, battery packs, and precision parts. In H2FY25, the company secured orders from four global IT brands—HP, Lenovo, Acer, and Asus—for laptops and related IT hardware components. To cater to this demand, Dixon is setting up a dedicated manufacturing unit for IT hardware and telecom products, with production expected to begin in FY26.

    Based on this development, Dixon is targeting Rs 3,500 crore in revenue from its IT hardware business by FY26. Atul Lall, MD of Dixon Technology, said, “For the sector and Dixon, the growth path is going to be extremely aggressive in investment and diversification in the future.”

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    The Baseline
    13 May 2025, 05:09PM
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - May 13, 2025

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - May 13, 2025

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    1. Godrej Consumer Products:

    Anand Rathi reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this personal products maker with a target price of Rs 1,430, indicating an upside of 12.9%. In Q4FY25, the company’s revenue rose 6.3% YoY to Rs 3,598 crore, driven by 6% volume growth. However, EBITDA margin declined 120 bps to 21.1% due to inflation in palm oil costs. 

    Analyst Ajay Thakur expects the overall EBITDA margin to rise by 130 bps to 22.2% over FY25–27. He attributes this to price hikes in soaps, easing palm oil prices, and improving profitability in the international business. The management also projects a 24–27% EBITDA margin in the domestic business over the medium term and expects double-digit EBITDA growth in FY26. In Q4, revenue from Indonesia grew by 5%, while the GUAM region (Africa, the US, and the Middle East) posted 23% organic growth.

    Thakur is optimistic as the company’s focus on building new categories, and product innovation have driven high-potential launches like Fab liquid detergent and its entry into pet care. It introduced a pet care brand, Godrej Ninja, in Tamil Nadu, and plans a national rollout in FY26.

    The company is also focusing on expanding rural distribution. Through Project VISTAAR, its distribution network grew from 35,000 to 80,000 villages, reaching 6,20,000 rural outlets in FY25. This project had a 100bps impact on EBITDA margin. Analyst projects a 9.7% growth in revenue for FY26-27.

    2. Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HPCL):

    Emkay retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this refineries & petro-products company with a target price of Rs 500, an upside of 28.6%. HPCL’s refining volume rose 15% YoY to 6.7 million metric tonnes (mmt) in Q4FY25, with strong utilisation at 118%. Domestic sales grew 2.6% even as the overall industry declined 1.8%. For FY25, HPCL gained 0.25% market share, outperforming its other PSU peers. It features in a screener of stocks outperforming their industry price change in the quarter.

    HPCL’s capex for FY25 stood at Rs 14,510 crore. Analysts Sabri Hazarika and Arya Patel note that its current major investment cycle is nearing completion. The focus now is on generating returns from this capex before starting the next phase under its 5-year plan of Rs 77,000 crore. The company is also working to maintain a healthy debt-to-equity ratio and ensure that repayments stay manageable. Its capex for FY26-27 is targeted at Rs 13,000–14,000 crore annually, including Rs 4,000 crore in equity, Rs 5,000 crore for refining, and the rest on marketing and other areas.

    Hazarika and Patel project HPCL’s revenue and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 2.7% and 6.9%, respectively, over FY26–28.

    3. Alembic Pharmaceuticals:

    BOB Capital Markets maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this pharma company with a target price of Rs 1,032, a potential upside of 15.2%. Alembic Pharma’s US sales grew 20% YoY in Q4FY25, driven by higher volumes and four new product launches. The company plans to launch 15 new products in FY26, with analysts expecting 3–4 of them to generate significant revenue.

    The company’s research & development (R&D) spending is set to rise to Rs 6,000 crore in FY26 from Rs 5,200 crore in FY25. About 40% of this will go towards peptides, complex injectables, and ophthalmic products (eye-related), while the rest will focus on active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and oral solids. US sales are expected to grow at 13% CAGR over FY26–27.

    In FY25, Alembic’s net profit fell 8% YoY due to a 40% jump in finance costs from higher short-term debt. Inventory days increased to 148 from 110 last year, as the company built up stock for multiple delayed product launches and its new Jarod plant in Gujarat. Analyst Foram Parekh expects this to normalise in FY26.

    Parekh expects FY26 to outperform FY25 across all key areas, with double-digit growth in domestic sales, new product launches in the US, and stronger growth in the high-margin Rest of the World (RoW) markets.

    4. Ami Organics:

    IDBI Capital upgrades its rating to 'Buy' on this pharma company with a target price of Rs 1,368, a potential upside of 16.5%. The company's revenue grew 37.2% in Q4FY25, and profit increased by 148.4%, driven by growth in its contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) business.

    The management aims to achieve 25% revenue growth in FY26, up from the current 23%, driven by new product launches such as lithium-ion battery additives and a new specialty chemical product. The company plans to invest Rs 2,000 crore in FY26 to develop electrolyte additives, a solar power plant, and a pilot plant in Gujarat.

    Analyst Jason highlights that the company aims to generate Rs 1,000 crore in revenue from its CDMO business by FY28 to meet growing demand. They expect the company to benefit from new CDMO contracts in H2FY26, driven by the shift from China to India. Analysts project a revenue CAGR of 25-30% for the company over the next two years.

    5. APL Apollo Tubes:

    Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the steel tube manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,920, implying a 11.3% upside. In Q4FY25, the company’s revenue grew 17% YoY to Rs 5,324 crore, driven by higher steel tube prices. Net profit rose 72% to Rs 293 crore, helped by lower energy costs and improved plant efficiency.

    Analysts Aditya Welekar and Darsh Solanki expect the company to achieve EBITDA/tonne of Rs 5,000 in FY26, up from Rs 4,864, driven by higher volumes in the value-added products (VAP) portfolio and a reduction in employee cost per tonne from Rs 1,000 to Rs 600 by FY27.

    Management aims to increase capacity from 4.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) to 6.8 MTPA by FY28 to tap into new markets in East India and raise exports to 10% from the current 6%, with an investment of Rs 1,500 crore. Analysts expect steel tube volumes to grow by 20% annually over the next 2–3 years and return on capital employed (ROCE) to improve to 35% in FY26, up from 25% in FY25.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    12 May 2025, 04:25PM
    Which stocks did superstar investors buy in Q4FY25?

    Which stocks did superstar investors buy in Q4FY25?

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    The final quarter of FY25 was marked by volatility. US President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, announced in April, sparked trade war concerns and added to the uncertainty. India and the US are now actively discussing the first phase of a Bilateral Trade Agreement. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick mentioned that around 7,000 tariff lines could be modified or changed under the deal.

    To invest in a changing market, people closely follow superstar investors like RARE Enterprises, Ashish Kacholia, Sunil Singhania, and Vijay Kedia for insights into the market. Their buying and selling activity helps retail investors identify promising sectors and stocks. We take a look at their top buys in Q4FY25.

    (You can now invest in shadow superstar baskets available on Starfolio, which are updated and rebalanced in line with Trendlyne's superstar portfolios).

    In Q4, most superstar investors stayed cautious as markets turned volatile, making fewer additions and more stake sales, continuing the trend from the December quarter. The chart below shows changes in their current public portfolio net worth.

    Superstar net worth includes current holding changes, as well as new buys and sells. 

    Each superstar investor's portfolio reflects their unique investing style and sector preferences. The chart below highlights the dominant sectors in each investor’s public portfolio. 

    Sector preferences vary among superstar investors – RARE Enterprises leans towards the textiles, apparels & accessories sector, while Ashish Kacholia favours general industrials. Sunil Singhania focuses on the metals & mining sector, and Vijay Kedia’s preferred industry is automobiles & auto components. Dolly Khanna leans more towards the oil & gas industry, and Porinju Veliyath’s top sector is software & services.

    Ashish Kacholia made the highest number of new investments in Q4, adding six new companies to his portfolio. His new picks lead the list of best-performing stocks over the past quarter. One of Dolly Khanna’s stocks also features in this list. Here’s a look at the top-performing stocks held by superstar investors.

    Kacholia’s Qualitek Labs topped the list with a 11.3% rise over the past quarter, followed by Infinium Pharmachem. Among Dolly Khanna’s holdings, Polyplex Corp gained 8.8% during the same period. 

    Porinju’s M M Rubber Company and Kacholia’s Z-Tech have dipped slightly during the quarter, with both falling around 1.5%. Meanwhile, GHCL and Concord Control declined by 7.2% and 8.1%, respectively.

    RARE Enterprises adds a minor stake in a banking stock

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio, currently managed by Rekha Jhunjhunwala and RARE Enterprises, has risen by 16.2% to Rs 57,245 crore as of May 12. During Q4, RARE Enterprises only made a minor stake increase in a banking stock.

    RARE increased a minor 0.1% stake in Federal Bank in the March quarter. The portfolio now holds a 1.5% stake in this banking stock. Over the past year, the bank’s share price has increased by 21.6%, outperforming its industry by 5.6% points. It also has an affordable valuation score of 66.5.

    RARE also bought minor stakes in Canara Bank and Titan during the quarter, taking its holding to 1.5% and 5.2% in the banking and gems & jewellery companies, respectively.

    Ashish Kacholia adds six new companies in Q4

    Ashish Kacholia’s net worth has declined by 21.3% to Rs 2,506.8 crore as of May 12. During the quarter, the ace investor added six new companies to his portfolio and raised stake in one firm. 

    Kacholia’s biggest buy during the December quarter was Qualitek Labs, a consulting servicescompany. The investor bought a 5.1% stake in the company. The company’s share price has increased by 92.8% over the past year, outperforming its industry by 98.2% points.

    During Q4, he acquired a 4.6% stake in Infinium Pharmachem. Over the past year, the pharma company has risen by 31.6%, outperforming its industry by 11.5% points. Kacholia also added construction & engineering company Z-Tech (India) by buying a 3.5% stake. The firm has surged 405.5% in the past year, and outperformed its industry by 395.5% points.

    The marquee investor added Thomas Scott, a textiles company, in the March quarter, buying 2.4%. The company has a high durability score of 60. Kacholia’s portfolio also revealed a 1.9% stake in wires & cables maker Quadrant Future Tek. The company debuted on the bourses on January 14, 2025, with its IPO oversubscribed by 186.7x. 

    Kacholia also added a 1.2% stake in Concord Control to his portfolio in Q4. The electronic components manufacturer has risen by 74.4% over the past year. It features in a screener of companies with low debt.

    He increased his stake in Tanfac Industries by 0.4%, bringing his holding to 1.6%. Tanfac has a high Durability score of 75 and ranks high on Trendlyne’s checklist with a score of 65.2%.

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund discloses stake in a recently listed company

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund saw its net worth fall by 21.6% to Rs 2,339.7 crore as of May 6. The fund disclosed a 1.3% stake in a water management solutions company during the March quarter.

    Denta Water and Infra Solutions debuted on the bourses on January 29, 2025, with its IPO oversubscribed by 221.7 times. The stock has risen marginally by 0.3% over the quarter. The company has strong financials, with revenue and net profit rising by 13.7% and 127.3%, respectively, in Q3FY25. It appears in a screener of stocks showing rising quarterly net profit and profit margin (YoY).

    The fund also marginally increased its stake in Technocraft Industries and HG Infra Engineering, now holding 2.4% and 1.4% in these companies, respectively.

    Vijay Kedia makes no new buys in Q4

    Vijay Kedia's net worth has fallen by 31.2%, reaching Rs 1,347.2 crore as of May 12. He has remained relatively quiet in recent months, making no new purchases or increasing stakes during the quarter. However, he has sold stakes in a few companies.

    Dolly Khanna adds two new companies in Q4, raises stakes in eight

    Dolly Khanna's net worth increased by 11%, reaching Rs 533.7 crore as of May 6. She publicly holds 17 companies and continued to expand her portfolio in Q4 by adding two new companies and increasing stakes in eight others. Her new investments include a 1.2% stake in Polyplex Corp, a packaging films maker, and a 1% stake in GHCL, a commodity chemicals manufacturer. 

    Both companies have high Valuation scores, indicating they are attractively priced. Over the past year, Polyplex Corp's share price has risen by 45.2%, while GHCL’s increased by 24%.

    During Q4FY25, Khanna also bought a 1% stake in Som Distilleries & Breweries, raising her holding to 2.4%. She increased her stake in Prakash Industries by 0.8%, now holding 2.1%. Both companies have high Trendlyne checklist scores of over 60.

    Additionally, Khanna added a 0.4% stake each in Prakash Pipes, Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizers, and 20 Microns. Her holdings in these companies are now 4.1%, 2.2%, and 1.7%, respectively. All three have outperformed their industry price change over the last quarter.

    The ace investor also raised her stake by 0.2% in Stove Kraft and 0.1% in KCP Sugar during Q4. Her current stakes in these companies are 1.3% and 19%, respectively. Khanna increased her stake slightly in Savera Industries as well.

    Porinju Veliyath adds two new companies to his portfolio in Q4

    Porinju Veliyath's net worth decreased by 40.4%, reaching Rs 176.8 crore. During the March quarter, he added Apollo Sindoori Hotels to his portfolio, acquiring a 1.7% stake in the hotels company. The company’s share price has fallen by 24.1% over the past year, underperforming its industry by 37%. However, it has a high Durability score of 65.

    Veliyath also bought a 1% stake in M M Rubber Company, a rubber products manufacturer. The company features in a screener of stocks with zero promoter pledges.

    Additionally, Veliyath acquired a 0.1% stake in IT software company Aurum Proptech, increasing his holding to 6%. The company's share price has risen by 22.7% in the past year, outperforming its industry by 12.3%.

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    The Baseline
    09 May 2025
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - May 09, 2025

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - May 09, 2025

    By Trendlyne Analysis

    1. Coforge:

    This IT consulting & software firm jumped 5.2% over the past week after announcing its Q4 results. The rise was also driven by CEO Sudhir Singh expressing confidence in achieving the company’s $2 billion revenue target by FY27, backed by record-high deal wins in FY25. He highlighted that the executable order book for the next 12 months stands at $1.5 billion, up 48% YoY. Singh noted that near-term macroeconomic challenges are not expected to pose a major risk.

    The surge in Coforge’s order book is largely driven by a major deal with Sabre Corp, a travel technology company. On March 4, Coforge announced a 13-year, $1.6 billion contract with Sabre, which translates to about $120 million in annual revenue. With this deal making up nearly half of the order book, there is a potential risk of margin pressure, as Sabre may have leverage over pricing. However, the management is confident that it will not hurt margins and aims for an EBITDA margin of around 18% by FY27, up from the current 16.6%.

    In Q4, the company’s EBITDA margin rose by 108 bps QoQ to 18.7%. Revenue grew 1.9% QoQ to Rs 3,441 crore, but missed Forecaster estimates by 2.5%. The growth was supported by strong performance in the banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI), travel, and overseas government segments. Speaking about the travel vertical, Singh said. “In North America and Europe, airlines are being cautious, but leisure travel is slowly picking up. Travel demand is strong in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, so FY26 looks promising for us.”

    During the quarter, Coforge acquired a data and cloud asset in the US, generating $6 million in quarterly revenue, and a ServiceNow asset in Australia, contributing $2 million per quarter. This helped offset the revenue loss from the recently divested AdvantageGo business, an insurance software unit. The company sold AdvantageGo for $53.5 million on April 30 as part of a broader strategic restructuring.

    Motilal Oswal has given Coforge a ‘Buy’ rating, calling it their top pick among tier-II IT players. The brokerage believes a strong executable order book and consistent client spending across sectors will support the company’s growth. It also expects Coforge’s EBITDA margin to expand by 100–120 bps over the next 12–18 months.

    2. R R Kabel:

    Thiswires and cables companysurged 18% over the past week after announcing its Q4results. In Q4, the company reported a revenue growth of 26% YoY, surpassingForecaster estimates by 8%. Net profit gained 64%, significantly exceeding expectations, led by strong volume gains and price hikes. 

    RR Kabel shares rallied as this performance came after two quarters of relatively subdued demand, impacted by channel destocking and volatility in raw material prices.

    The businessgets a majority of its revenue from wires and cables (W&C), while 12% comes from fast moving electrical goods (FMEG). Losses in the FMEG division have gone down by half in Q4, and the company expects this segment to achieve EBITDA breakeven by FY26. The company appears in ascreener of stocks with best results last week in terms of revenue and net profit growth on a YoY basis.

    RR Kabel’s management is confident of outpacing the industry with a targeted CAGR of 18%, as the W&C industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15%. To support this ambition, the company invested Rs 370 crore in capex this year, which is 95% higher compared to last year.

    Looking ahead, MD Shreegopal Kabrasays, “We have already begun executing our Rs 1,200 crore capex plan for FY26-28, which is primarily aimed at expanding cable capacity to support a 15-20% volume growth and improve margin.” Kabra aims to achieve a topline growth of Rs 4,500 crore with this investment.

    Motilal Oswalmaintains a ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock. It sees volatility in raw material prices and rising competition as key challenges. Analysts also expect the company’s net debt to increase to Rs 840 crore by FY27 from Rs 110 crore as of FY25, driven by higher capex.

    3. Sona BLW Precision Forgings:

    Thisauto parts manufacturer rose 3.3% on May 2 after announcing itsQ4FY25 results. The company's net profit grew 10.4% YoY to Rs 164.1 crore, beating Forecaster estimates by 8.5%. The growth wasdriven by higher other income from interest earned on surplusQIP funds.

    However, during the quarter, the company’s operating revenue dropped 2.3% YoYdue to uncertainty over US tariffs, weaker demand in the US, intense competition from Chinese OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) in the EU, and the transition of a global EV customer to a new model.

    Vivek Vikram Singh, MD & Group CEO of the company,said, “Despite a temporary revenue drop due to model transition, we closed the quarter with record profitability. Our Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) business is growing rapidly, and with new product launches and orders, our order book is at an all-time high.” The company expects revenue growth to recover in H1FY26 and plans to diversify towards Chinese and other Asian OEMs as the US and EU markets remain weak.

    In FY25, BEVscontributed 36% of the company's total revenue, an increase from 29% in FY24. BEV revenue grew by 38% YoY in FY25. The segment also accounts for 77% of the total order book of Rs 24,200 crore. North America remains the largest market, contributing roughly 40% of sales.

    About 3% of revenue faces risk from US tariffs. Managementnoted that the indirect effects of the tariffs could slow down customer demand and disrupt supply chains in the short term. He also highlighted China's recent export restrictions on seven rare earth elements and associated magnets, which could strain electric vehicle (EV) component sourcing. To mitigate this, Sona BLW isdeveloping magnetless motor technology and other non-rare-earth technologies.

    The company is expanding its product portfolio with new products such as traction motors, controllers, belt starter generators (BSG), and sensors. It entered the railway equipment business byacquiring Escorts Kubota’s railway division for Rs 1,600 crore. The company is also working on high-voltage traction motors for heavy vehicles and exploring robotics applications for driveline components.

    Post results, Motilal Oswalreiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating. The brokerage expects net sales to grow at an 11.7% CAGR and net profit at an 11.5% CAGR over FY26-27, driven by BEV momentum and new business wins.

    4. CCL Products India:

    This tea & coffee company recorded its best single-day gain in eight months, rising 15.9% on May 6, following the announcement of its Q4FY25 and full year results on May 5. The company reported a 56.2% YoY surge in net profit for Q4FY25, reaching Rs 101.9 crore, driven by an improved product mix and expanding margins. Its revenue rose by 14.9%. The stock appears in a screener featuring strong momentum stocks.

    The company beat Trendlyne’s forecaster, Q4FY25 net profit estimate by 55.3% and the revenue estimate by 32.3%. Despite volatility in coffee prices, the company’s gross margins rose by 133 basis points to 44.4%, while EBITDA margins expanded by 328 basis points YoY to 19.5%. Its geographical advantage enabled it to strengthen its presence in international markets, increase market share, and secure new business opportunities. The company also plans to further invest in the UK and US markets.

    Challa Srishant, Managing Director of CCL Products, has set a target of 40% volume growth in the domestic market by FY26. The company also aims to increase its global market share from 7% to 10%. Mr. Srishant expects EBITDA/kg to stay steady at approximately Rs 120 per kg and remains confident in meeting volume targets, despite shorter contract periods. He highlighted the completion of the company’s subsidiary (Ngon Coffee) manufacturing facility in Vietnam and noted that, “We are expanding in China, Taiwan, Middle East, and African markets. These are economies we foresee will be driving coffee consumption in the coming decades.”

    The company's working capital debt rose to Rs 1,815 crore in FY25, mainly due to high coffee prices and long-term loans taken for capacity expansion. On the debt levels, Srishant said, “With raw material prices now falling 10%, there could be a reduction in working capital loans. Over the next 3-4 years, debt levels will start sliding back.” But he didn’t go into specifics.

    Axis Securities has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on CCL, citing the company’s consistent performance despite volatility in coffee prices. The brokerage highlighted the company’s plans of expanding capacity in value-added products such as freeze-dried coffee (FDC) and small packs in Vietnam. It has increased its FY26 & FY27 PAT estimates by 13% and 14%, respectively.

    5. Avenue Supermarts (DMart): 

    This department stores chain has declined by 5.4% over the past week following the announcement of its Q4FY25 results. Avenue Supermarts’ net profit declined 2.2% YoY to Rs 550.9 crore, and missed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 5.1%. The dip in profit was due to higher raw materials, employee benefits and finance costs. 

    During the quarter, revenue increased 16.9% YoY to Rs 14,896.9 crore driven by new store additions. DMart opened 28 new stores, taking its total count to 415. For the full year, the company added 50 stores, up 22% compared to the previous year. 

    DMart’s like-for-like (LFL) sales fell to 8.1% in Q4FY25 from 10.3% a year ago. The management highlighted that non-metro cities outperformed metros. Quick-commerce's rising popularity has been impacting these markets, which account for ~47% of DMart’s revenue. Despite the perception of D-Mart’s customer as being highly price conscious, quick commerce players have been making inroads.

    Neville Noronha, CEO & Managing Director, said, “The rise of Q-commerce is impacting us, particularly in metro stores with high foot traffic and fast inventory turnover”. He added that increased competition in the FMCG space, rising employee costs, and higher investments in service levels have dragged down margins. The company’s EBITDA margins declined 100 bps YoY to 6.4% in the March quarter. 

    DMart is known for offering the lowest prices on branded fast-moving consumer goods, while Q-commerce players’ advantages are discounted pricing and 10-minute delivery. The company has been offering higher discounts and increasing its delivery services through DMart Ready. It expanded its presence to 25 cities during FY25. Noronha highlighted, “Home delivery is gaining traction in metros, however, losses from the format will likely continue in the near term”.

    Following the company’s earnings announcement, Axis Direct reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating with a Rs 4,770 target price. The brokerage highlights DMart’s focus on boosting store productivity, improving profits, and reviving its general merchandise & apparel segment.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    09 May 2025
    Superstar investor portfolios take a hit from market volatility | Screener: Promoters reducing their stakes

    Superstar investor portfolios take a hit from market volatility | Screener: Promoters reducing their stakes

    By Tejas MD

    A diet that includes five cans of Coca Cola every day, potato chips and weekly meals at McDonald's. No exercise. This is the secret to Warren Buffett's longevity (he is now 94) and 75-year career.

    The famous Oracle of Omaha is retiring with a legacy that is difficult to imitate — whether in terms of his food habits, his success, or in the returns he generated at Berkshire Hathaway.

    Buffett's timeless quote,“Our favourite holding period is forever”, has inspired generations of investors.  Retail investors look up to superstar investors like Buffett, hoping to figure out their high-return strategies.

    But investing strategies vary. Some of these investors stick to Buffett’s mantra of patience. Others move fast, reshuffling their portfolios to ride out the storm. So, how are India’s superstar investors navigating the turbulence of 2025? Who’s holding firm? Who’s making bold moves? And how has their net worth changed in the recent market volatility? 

    In this week’s Anlayticks, 

    • Portfolio pain: Superstar investors see their net worth take a hit in Q4FY25
    • Screener: Promoters decreasing their shareholding QoQ

    Market volatility roils superstar investor portfolios in Q4

    The last quarter of the financial year ending March 2025 was volatile, with benchmark indices plunging 16%+ from their record highs. Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ rattled markets in April with tariff uncertainty. Even superstar investors haven't been spared, with their portfolios taking a hit.

    Major superstar investors see their net worth fall in the March qtr (Q4FY25)

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala & Associates’ public portfolio (now managed by Rare Enterprises), saw a rise in net worth in the March quarter, mainly due to a Rs 14,953 crore fund infusion into a newly listed company, Inventurus Knowledge.

    Other top investor portfolios saw their net worth drop. Vijay Kedia took a big hit, with his top holdings, Atul Auto and TAC Infosec, falling 16% and 30% over the past quarter. These two stocks make up over 30% of his public portfolio. The struggle highlights the dangers of a volatile market, that even the best in the business can’t avoid.

    Most expert investors sat tight during this period, or cautiously trimmed their stakes. But Ashish Kacholia took a different route, going for an aggressive reshuffle. In Q4FY25, he cut his holdings in 10 companies and added eight new names.

    Breaking the trend: Ashish Kacholia snaps up new stocks in a volatile market

    Interestingly, this mirrors Mukul Agrawal’s strategy from the previous quarter, when he picked up eight new stocks while cutting his stake in 12 companies. However, Agrawal went into sell mode this quarter, trimming his position in 13 stocks while buying a new stake in just one company.

    New stakes are in recently listed, expensive companies

    Some top investors acquired new stakes in 10 companies in Q4,all in the small-cap space. Ashish Kaholia contributed eight of these new additions.

    New Buys: Kacholia picks up expensive, newly listed stocks

    One sector in particular, is in the spotlight — commercial services & supplies, which features prominently across these portfolio moves.

    Two clear patterns stand out from this list. First, seven of the 10 new buys are fresh listings from 2024-25. Second, they come with expensive valuations, as flagged by Trendlyne’s valuation scores.

    Superstar investors pick up new stakes in 2024-25 newcomers

    Only one of the seven recently listed companies outperformed the Nifty50 in the past quarter, Qualitek Labs. 

    Superstar investors sell stakes in underperforming companies

    Ten stocks exited superstar portfolios in the past quarter. Barring Ceat, all other companies have underperformed the Nifty50 in the past quarter.

    These exits spanned sectors from transportation to banking and finance. The biggest loser was Quick Heal Tech, a software and services firm that Mukul Agrawal chose to offload.

    Fundamentally strong stocks feature in superstar investors’ Sell list

    Interestingly, even fundamentally strong stocks were cut out, as price underperformance forced superstar investors to exit in Q4.

    Among long-term winners for superstars, Vijay Kedia’s Neuland Labs shines

    Neuland Labs, the pharma player, stands out as the best-performing long-term bet for both Vijay Kedia and Mukul Agrawal. However, Kedia has outpaced Agrawal in returns, thanks to his timely entry in 2019 when the stock was trading at lower levels.

    Best long-term holdings for superstars: Kedia's Neuland Labs tops the list

    Akash Bhanshali’s Gujarat Fluorochemicals (30% of total holding value), on the other hand, has lagged since they bought the stock. However, Bhanshali's net worth has almost tripled in the past two years due to high performance in their other holdings and fresh buys in new stocks.


    Screener: Promoters decreasing their shareholding QoQ

    Banking & finance stocks see QoQ drop in promoter holdings in Q4FY25

    2025 began with heightened volatility across global markets, triggered by President Donald Trump's new import tariffs. As benchmark indices slipped into correction territory, promoters of several Indian companies reduced their holdings. This screener highlights stocks where promoters cut their stakes quarter-on-quarter in Q4 FY25.

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the banking & finance, pharmaceuticals & biotechnology, FMCG, software & services, and consumer durables sectors. Major stocks that feature in the screener are AWL Agri Business, JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals, UCO Bank, Central Bank of India, Hitachi Energy, Aditya Birla Fashion, Home First Finance, and Indian Overseas Bank.

    JB Chemicals shows up in the screener after its promoter cut their stake by 5.8 percentage points to 47.8% in Q4FY25. Its stock price declined 9.9% over the past quarter. This pharmaceutical company’s promoter, Tau Investment Holdings, sold 89.8 lakh shares (a 5.8% stake) for Rs 1,459.8 crore. A mutual fund, Kotak Emerging Equity Scheme (bought a 1.4% stake), and a foreign institutional investor (FII), Smallcap World Fund, Inc (bought a 1.1% stake), picked up the stake sold by the promoters.

    Public sector undertaking (PSU) banks like UCO Bank, Central Bank of India, and Indian Overseas Bank saw a 4.4 percentage points, 3.8 percentage points, and 1.8 percentage points reduction in promoter holding in Q4FY25. The Government plans to reduce its holdings in these banks to below 75%, with an official stating, “This will be done to comply with the Securities and Exchange Board of India’s (Sebi’s) minimum public-shareholding norms. While market conditions will be considered, the government plans to use both the offer for sale (OFS) and qualified institutional placement (QIP) routes." FIIs and mutual funds picked up stakes in UCO Bank and Central Bank of India, while retail investors also picked up stakes in Indian Overseas Bank.

    You can find more screeners here.

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