Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd. share price target

We expect the company to grow its Revenue/EBITDA/PAT at a CAGR of 10.7% / 20.4% / 20.2% for the period of FY26-FY28E. The company is currently trading at 15x FY28E and we value the company at a PE of 17x FY28E EPS, implying a target price of INR 840 with the upside of 14%.

Sales/EBITDA was reported 4%/24.5% below our estimates; PAT reported 11.9% above our estimates on reporting tax credit

Alembic Pharma (ALPM) exhibited in-line revenue with a slight miss on EBITDA/PAT for the quarter. While ex-US export growth was strong for the quarter, it was offset by moderate YoY growth in domestic formulation (DF) and US sales.

Sales/EBITDA /PAT reported 7%/4%/8% above our estimates. EBITDA margin was marginally 50 bps below our estimates

Alembic Pharma’s (Alembic) Q2FY26 result beat our expectations – led by formulations exports (up 25.1% YoY) while India continued to grow at a modest pace (4.9% in Q2FY26).

Alembic Pharma is expected to maintain steady growth momentum supported by its expanding complex generics portfolio in the US, sustained traction in Ex-US markets, and a gradual recovery in the domestic formulations business.

We maintain a positive FY26E outlook, expecting sustained double-digit growth across US, Ex-US, and RoW businesses. Growth across regions will be majorly driven by a healthy US pipeline, strategic expansion in RoW, and improved execution across India.

Earnings reported in-line where sales/EBITDA/PAT were -2.6/3.4%/-0.7% above estimates. EBITDA margin was 90 bps above estimates

Alembic Pharma’s (Alembic) Q1FY26 result was in line with our expectations. Revenue growth was mainly driven by US (13% YoY) and ex-US international business (21% YoY). India growth was tepid at 4.7% YoY due to challenges in specialty portfolio (up 1% YoY) and slowdown in acute market.

Alembic Pharma (ALPM) delivered a largely in-line performance for 1QFY26. Superior execution in the export market led to YoY growth in revenue/EBITDA/PAT for the quarter.

Revenue/EBITDA/ PAT grew 6.7%/8% and 19% above our estimates. EBITDA margin reported 20bps above estimates of 15.4% in 4QFY25

Alembic Pharma (ALPM) delivered a better-than-expected performance in 4QFY25. A strong performance in export markets was offset partly by a muted show in domestic formulation (DF) segment.

US and ROW sales grew above our estimates of 5% and 13% respectively, reporting growth of 10% each

Alembic Pharma’s (Alembic) Q3FY25 result was dragged by tepid performance in India and API biz. India biz growth has been weaker (5.8% in 9MFY25) for the last couple of quarters due to pressure in acute segment even though animal health biz has been growing <20%.

Alembic Pharma (ALPM) delivered operationally in-line 3QFY25 performance. Higher interest outgo and tax led to lower-than-expected earnings for the quarter.

Alembic Pharma’s (ALPM) 2QFY25 results came in below our estimates due to the deterioration in API business and higher operational costs.

Q2FY25 results were below our estimates on all fronts; however, ALPM expects H2 to be better than H1FY25 driven by healthy product mix

ALPM reported strong margin gains in Q4 on account of better utilisation of new facilities and traction in the US business

Alembic Pharma (ALPM) delivered better-than-expected 4QFY24 earnings,
led by better gross margin and improved off-take in the API segment. After
two consecutive years of weak financial performance, ALPM ended FY24
with 10%/14%/43% YoY growth in sales/EBIDTA/PAT to INR62b/INR9.3b/
INR6b.

Monthly Economic Buffet: Economic Round-up January 2024. SBIN: Pension one-off hurts profitability. JSTL: Progressing on expansion but valuations fair. ACEM: Healthy quarter, sustainability key; retain HOLD. ALPM: Healthy quarter; PAT beat on low tax rate. CPBI: Margin stress across segments. VSTT: Poor demand dampens performance