The 10 reports from 6 analysts offering long term price targets
for Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd. have an average target of 1216.83. The consensus estimate
represents an upside of 33.75%
from the last price of 909.80.
We maintain BUY on Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ALPM') and increase our March FY22 TP to INR 1,480 (from INR 1,475 on modeling changes) thus an upside of 47% over the CMP. Q4FY21 results were on expected lines. Subdued US performance was on the back of headwinds coming from Sartans pricing erosion, which is likely to continue in the medium term. RoW business was a pleasant surprise on the back of low base post serialisation. Domestic continues to underperform due to Covid related headwinds; Specialty to lead the FY22 growth. Key medium term trigger would be USFDA's EIR for the general injectable plant which has already been audited by the USFDA on Feb-2021, deemed mission critical. Using DCF, we value Umbralisib at INR 160 per share discounting these sources of revenues including milestone based payments and CMP revenues over Umbralisibs commercial life. ALPM is currently trading at ~12x / ~9.6x EV / EBITDAx for FY22E / FY23E....
Q4 revenues grew 6.1% YoY to | 1280 crore with strong growth in RoW formulations and API segment being partly offset by 17.7% YoY decline in US sales to | 475 crore. Domestic formulations grew 4.7% YoY to | 358 crore. RoW sales grew a robust 76.5% YoY to | 233 crore whereas API segment grew 38.1% YoY to | 214 crore. EBITDA margins declined 45 bps YoY to 26.7% with lower gross margins being mostly offset by lower...
Alembic Pharma (ALPM)'s 4QFY21 operational performance was marginally below estimates, largely due to lower traction in US / Domestic Formulation (DF) sales. ALPM awaits feedback from the USFDA on the resolution of observations at the recently inspected injectables Unit (F3). We tweak our estimates for FY22/FY23, factoring in a) a slowdown in US sales and b) lower expensing of operational cost related to newer facilities. We continue to value ALPM at 19x 12M forward earnings to arrive at TP of INR1,070. We maintain Neutral on a limited upside from current levels....
Q3 results were a mixed bag. While operational performance was below Idirect estimates amid lower than expected International (mainly US) and API sales, net profit was higher due to higher-than-expected profit contribution from Rhizen Phama (one-off). Revenues grew 8.7% YoY to | 1314 crore led by strong growth in domestic, ROW formulations and API segment. US sales growth remained muted (down 0.6% YoY) at | 512 crore due to competition in Sartans. Domestic formulations grew 13.6% YoY to | 418 crore. EBITDA margins expanded 89 bps YoY to 27.8% due to better gross margins and lower R&D; cost. Subsequently, EBITDA grew 12.3% YoY to |...
We lower our PAT estimate by 3%/4% for FY22/FY23, factoring in higher competition for Sartans and delay in approvals for injectable products. We continue to value ALPM at 19x (in line with its five-year average) 12M forward earnings to arrive at TP of INR1,070. Maintain Neutral....
Alembic pharma reported yet another outstanding quarterly numbers with 7%/21%/34% higher Revenue/EBITDA/PAT from our estimates. The beat was supported by strong growth in Azithromycin OSD along with the strong market share gain. Lagging therapies of Gastroenterology and Gynecology also reported significant improvement during the quarter. Geography wise, growth in revenue was led by the ROW market which grew by 84.1% YoY (14% of revenue, up 3.3% QoQ) due to continued recovery in the European businesses from supply chain related issues and API business which grew by 28.9% YoY (18% of revenue, flat QoQ). The...
Domestic sales comprise 31% of FY20 revenues with higher contribution from specialty (54% of domestic sales). However, despite having an established set-up, growth (FY16-20 CAGR of ~5%) has lagged the industry growth curve. Alembic is consciously focusing on this aspect by overhauling distribution channels (defocusing on trade generics). Overall, we expect...
Valuation and Risks: We upgrade our revenues by 3.2% / 3.3% for FY21E/FY22E at Rs 52 bn / Rs 56 bn respectively due to upgrade in US, ROW and API business.
Domestic Formulations A Mixed Bag: The domestic formulations industry grew by 9.7% during the quarter and 9.8% for the year. The last 15-20 days of the March quarter were an issue due to COVID-19 and lockdown. Digital marketing, video calling had replaced the traditional mode of personalvisits and marketing.
5 July 2020 ALPM delivered a 14% CAGR in US sales to USD280m (43% of sales) on account of 58 launches over FY1620. Particularly, in FY20, ALPM garnered 49% YoY growth, led by new launches (22) and partly by regulatory concerns witnessed by peers. On a high FY20 base, we expect a 10% CAGR in US sales to USD340m over FY20 22. ALPM would ramp up filings across new dosages (Ophthalmology, General Injectables, Oncology Injectables, and Oral Solids). The considerable share of revenue from new capex / product development would reflect in overall growth in US sales 2HFY22 onward; thus, it forms a marginal portion of the business trajectory over FY2022. ALPM delivered 13% YoY growth in 4QFY20, reflecting the benefit of the pre-buying of medicines (in anticipation of shortage due to COVID-19) and partly of renewed strategy. While efforts to improve sales growth have been on track, performance could be dented on account of the COVID-19-led slowdown.
of capex is monetized from next fiscal. In the current disruptive environment, we reckon stocks with high certainty of earnings would command a disproportionate investorinterestandwidepremiumtosectoraverages.WebelieveAlembicPharma fitsthebillasitforaysintooncoandgeneralinjectablesandimprovestherevenue mixin3years.ExpectUSbusinesstoclock20%cagrexSartansovernext4yearsto touch ~US$450mn in FY24E. Domestic business should rebound and our recovery case is premised on strong close to Q4 FY20 as well as positive management commentary.WeassumemoderationingrossmarginthoughEBIDTAshouldpickup...
Domestic sales comprise 31% of FY20 revenues with higher contribution from specialty (54% of domestic sales). However, despite having an established set-up, growth (FY16-20 CAGR of ~5%) has lagged the industry growth curve. The company is consciously focusing on this aspect with focus on overhauling of distribution channels (defocusing on trade...
The company's revenue from Domestic Formulations (DF)grew by 13% to Rs.3.4 bn. US revenues grew by 84% on YoY basis to Rs. 5.8 bn. This has been on account of supply constraints in the Sartan space in the US market coupled with new launches. ROW markets grew by 61% to Rs. 1320 mn. API business degrew by 31% to Rs. 1550 mn during Q4 FY20.
ALPM remains on track in terms of finishing its large capex project (~INR25b) to enhance new dosage offerings and increase capacity requirements in the US Generics segment. ALPMs 4QFY20 revenues came in at INR12.1b, up 30% YoY, led by International Formulations (+80% YoY), supported by growth in the US segment (48% of sales; +84% YoY to USD75m) and the Non-US segment (11% of sales; +63% YoY). The gross margin expanded 140bp YoY to 78% owing to a superior product led by improved operating leverage (employee cost down -120bp YoY/other expenses down 520bp YoY as % of sales, offset by higher R&D; expense of For FY20, revenue/EBITDA/Adj.PAT stood at INR46.1b/INR12b/INR8.3b, largely led by strong traction in US generic. The US base business from already-approved products is likely to witness a quarterly run rate of USD70m (v/s USD50m up to 3QFY20) going forward.
