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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    14 Aug 2024, 05:48PM
    Which stocks did superstar investors sell in Q1FY25?

    Which stocks did superstar investors sell in Q1FY25?

    By Melissa Koshy

    Investments by superstar investors like RARE Enterprises, Ashish Kacholia, Sunil Singhania, and Vijay Kedia are closely tracked by investors for valuable insights into the market. Their buys and sells help investors identify interesting sectors and stocks. Here we look at the sells made by these superstar investors during Q1FY25.

    The chart below shows the changes in superstar investors' current portfolio net worth. Note that net worth reflects both changes in current holdings as well as new buys and sells. 

    Some superstar investors see their net worth rise in Q1FY25

    Previously, we looked at the key superstar buys in Q1FY25. Now, let's analyse their sells. During the latest quarter, most superstars went on a selling spree as many stocks hit sky-high valuations, and adjusted their holdings in key sectors. The following chart shows their biggest sells during this period. 

    Biggest sells by superstars in Q1FY25

    RARE Enterprises makes minor stake sales 

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio made some cuts, but with a cautious knife. The portfolio, currently managed by Rekha Jhunjhunwala and investment firm RARE Enterprises, cut minor stakes in multiple companies. The portfolio’s net worth grew 4.5% to Rs 50,586.1 crore after Q1FY25.

    Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio pares minor stakes in multiple companies

    In the April-June quarter, the late big bull’s portfolio cut a 0.2% stake in internet software company Nazara Technologies, and now holds an 8.37% stake. Its share price rose by 37.3% in the past year, underperforming its industry by 71.1 percentage points. This is the third consecutive quarter the portfolio has reduced its stake in the company. RARE also cut a 0.2% stake in edible oils maker Agro Tech Foods, taking the holding to 7.3%. Previously, it held an 8.1% stake in the firm since Q1FY24 before reducing it to 7.5%. 

    During the latest quarter, RARE reduced a minor 0.1% stake each in bank stocks — Federal Bank, and Karur Vysya Bank. It now holds 2.5% and 4.27%, respectively, in the banks. 

    RARE Enterprises also sold a 0.1% stake each in other industrial goods firm Raghav Productivity Enhancers, other financial services company Crisil, capital markets stock Geojit Financial, and pharmaceuticals firm Jubilant Pharmova during the quarter. The portfolio now holds 5%, 5.36%, 7.2%, and 6.57%, respectively, in these companies. 

    Ashish Kacholia goes on a selling spree

    Does Ashish Kacholia know something that we don’t, about the stock market? His net worth fell by 15.9% to Rs 2,847.1 crore after Q1FY25 as he pulled back on multiple stocks. The investor, who is usually a bullish player in midcap and smallcap stocks, reduced his stakes inAdor Welding to below 1% from 4.2% in Q4FY24. The Industrial goods company’s share price rose by 16.8% in the past year underperforming its sector by 128.9 percentage points. 

    Kacholia sells stakes in multiple companies

    The marquee investor also reduced his stake in the non-ferrous metals company Gravita India to below 1% compared to 2.2% in Q4FY24. This company is in a strong PE sell zone with its promoter holdings decreasing from 66.48% in Q4FY24 to 63.37% in Q1FY25.

    Kacholia also cut his stake to below 1% each in apparels & accessories company Vaibhav Global, finance company Ugro Capital, industrial machinery company HLE Glascoat, iron & steel products retailer Shankara Building Products, and restaurants chain Barbeque-Nation Hospitality.

    He reduced his stakes in other companies – 0.7% in Shaily Engineering Plastics, 0.5% in Garware Hi-Tech Films, 0.4% in Repro India, 0.1% in NIIT Learning Systems, 0.2% in Ami Organics and 0.3% in Aditya Vision. He also sold 0.8% each in PCBL and Sastasundar Ventures during the quarter. A likely reason for Kacholia’s multiple sells is the soaring valuations in the midcap and smallcap space. 

    Raging bull market can be trouble some for experienced investors https://t.co/QZDIgoNgdo

    — Ashish Kacholia (@LuckyInvest_ARK) June 28, 2024

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund adjusts holdings in key sectors

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fundsaw its net worth fall 10.3% to Rs 2,741 crore after Q1FY25. The fund reduced its stake in Route Mobile to below 1% during the quarter, after holding a 2.4% stake in the internet services & software company in Q4FY24. Its share price has risen marginally by 0.7% over the past year, underperforming its industry by 107.6 percentage points. It also reduced its stake in PSP Projects, a construction and engineering company, to below 1% from 1.5% in Q4FY24.

    Singhania trims his stake in Route Mobile and PSP Projects to below 1%

    Singhania’s fund also trimmed its stake in IIFL Securities by 0.2%, now holding 3.1% of the capital markets company. It sold a 0.1% stake in Mastek and now holds 3% in the IT consulting & software company. 

    Abakkus cut a 0.09% stake in the construction & engineering company HG Infra Engineering. It now holds 1.35% compared to 1.44% in Q4FY25. Its share price rose by 60.3% in the past year, underperforming its industry by 33 percentage points. 

    Vijay Kedia cuts stakes in three companies

    Vijay Kedia reduced his holdings in three companies in Q1FY25, with stakes below 1% in two companies. His net worth dropped 12.8% to Rs 1,615.2 crore since the end of Q1FY25. During the quarter he reduced his stake to below 1% in auto parts & equipment manufacturer Talbros Automotive Components and in electric utilities company Reliance Infrastructure from 1% each in Q4FY24. Over the past year, its share price increased by 28.8%, underperforming its industry by  82.

    Kedia reduces stakes in Talbros Auto, Reliance Infra to below 1%

    Kedia also cut his stake in Patel Engineering to 1.4% from 1.6% in Q4 FY24. The ace investor had added the construction & engineering company to his portfolio in Q4FY23, by buying a 1.3% stake. The company’s share price has fallen by 7.6% over the past quarter.

    Dolly Khanna cuts stakes in four companies 

    Dolly Khannareduced her holdings in four companies in Q1FY25, including one where her stake fell below 1%. Her net worth has increased by 4.2% to Rs 608.4. crore since the end of Q1FY25. During the quarter, she reduced her stake in Salzer Electronics (an other electrical equipment/ products manufacturer) to below 1%, from the 1% held in Q4FY24. She added the firm to her portfolio in Q2FY24 by buying a 1.1% stake but reduced her holding to 1% in Q3. Over the past year, Salzer has risen by 195.6%, underperforming its industry by 978.4 percentage points. 

    Dolly Khanna pares stakes in Salzer Electronics, Deepak Spinners and others

    During the April-June quarter, Dolly Khanna cut her stake in Deepak Spinners by 0.7% to 1.04%. She held a 1.77% stake in the small-cap textiles company in Q4FY24. 

    The ace investor reduced 0.1% stake each in National Oxygen and Control Print, taking her holding to 1.16% and 1.1%, respectively, in the industrial gases and computer hardware companies. 

    Porinju Veliyath cuts stakes in two companies in Q1

    Porinju V Veliyath’s net worth increased by 17.3% to Rs 224.2 crore after Q4FY24. During the quarter, he reduced his stakes in two companies. Porinju cut a 0.2% stake in Mitsu Chem Plast, taking his holding to 1.5%. He added the containers & packaging firm to his portfolio in Q4FY24 by buying a 1.7% stake. Over the past year, the company’s share price has declined by 25.2%, underperforming its industry by 85.8 percentage points. 

    Porinju pares stakes in Kaya and Mitsu Chem

    During the latest quarter, the marquee investor reduced a minor stake (0.1%) in special consumer services company Kaya, taking his holding to 2.9%. He has consistently held a 3% stake for a year since Q4FY23. The company has an expensive valuation with a score of 19.7, but a moderately bullish momentum score of 63.7. 

    Mohnish Pabrai reduces stake in a realty company to below 1% 

    Mohnish Pabrai’s net worth fell by 81.1% to Rs 92.5 crore after Q1FY25, and publicly holds just one company currently. During the quarter, he reduced his holding in Sunteck Realty to below 1%, from 2.2% in Q4FY24.  He consistently held a 6.7% stake in the company since Q1FY23, before reducing it to 2.2% in the March quarter. The realty company’s share price has risen by 58.5% over the past year but underperformed its industry by 60.4 percentage points.

    Pabrai trims stakes in two companies in Q1

    During Q1, Pabrai cut his stake in Edelweiss Financial Services by 3.9%, taking his holding to 1.2%. He held a 5.1% stake in the other financial services company in Q4FY24. Over the past quarter, Edelweiss has risen by 9.9%, underperforming its industry’s 22.9% growth.

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    The Baseline
    14 Aug 2024, 09:13AM
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - August 14 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - August 14 2024

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Maruti Suzuki India:

    KRChoksey maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this cars and utility vehicles manufacturer with a target price of Rs 14,148, indicating a potential upside of 15.3%.  The stock is currently in a strong PE buy zone. The company saw a strong performance in Q1FY25, where its net profit rose 48.9% YoY to Rs 3,759.7 crore, driven by cost reduction initiatives, favorable commodity prices and foreign exchange rate. Revenue grew 10.6% YoY to Rs 36,839.9 crore.

    Analyst Unnati Jadhav says, “The growth was primarily driven by strong export sales which increased by 11.6% YoY, with Jimny being the highest exported vehicle during the quarter.” She notes the company’s plans to double its production to 4 million vehicles by FY30-31 from the current level of 2.2 million.

    Jadhav anticipates that stronger rural markets will drive increased demand for hatchbacks, as the company aims to boost exports and CNG sales. Revenue, EBITDA, and adjusted PAT are expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.5%, 9.4%, and 12.6%, respectively, over FY25-FY26, as margins continue to improve.

    2. Coal India:

    ICICI Direct makes a ‘Buy’ call on this coal mining and production company with a target price of Rs 650 and a potential upside of 24.6%. The company reported a net profit of Rs 10,959.5 crore for Q1FY25, up 37.5% YoY. This increase was driven by lower material costs, reduced employee benefits, and decreased inventory. Its revenue grew 2.2% YoY to Rs 38,349.2 crore. Coal India is classified a strong performer as shown by its DVM score.

    Analyst Shashank Kanodia and Manisha Kesari note that the company is expanding its portfolio into new areas, including coal gasification through JV agreements with BHEL and GAIL, investments in thermal power such as Mahanadi Basin Power and exploring acquisitions of critical mineral assets both domestically and internationally. They remain optimistic about Coal India, citing strong volume growth prospects, ongoing diversification into emerging sectors, a healthy net cash positive balance sheet, and dividend yield of approximately 5%. Analysts expect coal production to grow at an 11% CAGR from FY25 to FY26 to 950 metric tonne (MT) by FY26, and anticipate a 7% CAGR growth in sales and PAT over the same period.

    3. Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences (KIMS):

    Edelweiss retains a ‘Buy’ recommendation on Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences (KIMS) setting a target price of Rs 2,560, suggesting a potential upside of 15.2%. This healthcare facilities company posted a 7.2% YoY increase in net profit to Rs 86.6 crore and a 13.8% YoY rise in revenue to Rs 693 crore in Q1 FY25. Analysts Thakur Ranvir Singh and Pawan Bhatia say,”Growth in revenue was helped by 21% YoY rise in ARPOB, 8% YoY growth in IP volume and 10% rise in OP volume”.

    KIMS plans to add approximately 1,800 beds in two years through various greenfield and brownfield plans. Analysts highlight that the company is on track to commence operations at its Nasik unit (300-beds) and newly acquired 200-bed multi-specialty Queen’s NRI Hospital (QNRI) at Vizag in Q2FY25, which is expected to improve performance in H2FY25.

    Singh and Bhatia believe the company has a strong expansion plan for the next 3 years, anticipating an increase in the total bed capacity to approximately 6,300 in FY27 from 3,975 in FY24. They retain their FY25 estimates, with a revenue, EBITDA, PAT CAGR of 23%, 22%, 19% respectively for FY 25-26. They also revised theirFY26 revenue, EBITDA and PAT forecasts upwards  by 6%, 5%, 8% due to the addition of new beds.

    4. Oil And Natural Gas Corporation:

    Emkay maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this exploration and production company with a target price of Rs 360. This indicates an upside of 7.2%. The company has received approval for the restructuring of its ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) project. The government has approved a Rs 10,501 crore investment in OPaL, including financial support for raw materials, with gas priced up to 20% above the Administered Price Mechanism (APM).

    ONGC reported a revenue growth of 19% YoY to Rs 1,69,562.3 crore in Q1FY25, but missed the Forecaster estimates by 5.8%. The revenue increase was driven by higher crude sales, while lower gas output impacted results. ONGC Videsh (OVL) saw costs reduce due to a shift in royalty payments from cash to kind, though production remained unchanged.

    Analysts Sabri Hazarika, Harsh Maru, and Arya Patel are optimistic about ONGC’s investment in green energy, targeting 10GW by CY30, and its plans to expand gas production capacity by developing new wells throughout the year. They anticipate positive developments in premium gas pricing and a boost from increased capex for Mozambique projects.

    5. Tech Mahindra:

    Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades this IT consulting firm to ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 1,645, indicating a potential upside of 9.4%. The company’s EBITDA margin improved by 180 bps, and lower interest expenses supported net profit growth in Q1FY25. However, revenue dropped 1.2% YoY to Rs 13,006 crore, impacted by the communications segment.

    The company introduced TechM VerifAI, a framework for validating AI systems, and developed over 100 AI solutions. During the quarter, Tech Mahindra expanded its workforce by 2,165 employees, and continued strategic initiatives like Project Fortius and Turbocharge to enhance margins. The analyst says, “The company's investment in AI and its workforce expansion, coupled with cost-saving initiatives, should  yield enhanced margins and drive growth in the manufacturing segment”. Additionally, they anticipate stable demand in the BFSI segment, as the company continues to explore new opportunities with existing clients. 

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here

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    The Baseline
    13 Aug 2024
    COTW: When it comes to the Olympic race, India lags in medals to GDP ratio

    COTW: When it comes to the Olympic race, India lags in medals to GDP ratio

    By Satyam Kumar

    The Paris 2024 Summer Olympics ended with Indian athletes winning a total of six medals (one silver, five bronze) –three in shooting, and a medal each in hockey, wrestling, and athletics (javelin). 

    Successful Olympic athletes like Abhinav Bindra and Neeraj Chopra have won golds in the past and have become national heroes, inspiring others. Rifle shooter Abhinav Bindra was the first Indian to win an Olympic gold medal in an individual event at Beijing in 2008 and was the only one to do so for over a decade before Neeraj’s javelin triumph at Tokyo in 2020.

    Last year in October, Prime Minister Modi expressed hopes that India would host the Olympics in 2036, pledging to leave no stone unturned in the effort. However, there is still a lot of work to be done if we want to get a piece of the global sports action.

    The International Monetary Fund in May projected that India will surpass Japan to become the 4th largest economy in the world in terms of nominal GDP in 2025. With a growth rate of over 7%, India will very likely become the third largest economy in the coming years. However our performance in the Olympics is a different story. 

    India stands last in terms of number of medals to GDP ratio in the 2024 Olympics, at 0.05 medals for every $100 billion in GDP.

    In this week’s Chart of the Week, we explore why India lags so far behind in global sports. Countries like the United States, China, and Australia dominate the medal tally, and even smaller developing nations like Jamaica, Mexico, and Brazil are far ahead of us.

    An Olympic medal is a rarity in India: one per 250 million people

    India ranks last in medal density among the most populous nations

    In 2023, India beat China to become the most populous country in the world, with over 1.4 billion people. More than half of the population is under the age of 25, and the average age in India is 29 years, compared to 37 in China and 48 in Japan. 

    You would imagine that this kind of demographics would produce hundreds of thousands of talented Indian athletes. 

    But despite  having the highest youth population, only 117 Indians went to compete in the Olympics this year. China in comparison, sent around 388 people who participated in a total of 33 events. From the above chart, it is clear that qualifying for the Olympics events and winning medals is very rare for India. If we look at the tally this year, India has won only one medal per 250 million people, which translates to 0.004 medals per million people. Meanwhile, countries like the United States, Japan and Brazil won 0.38, 0.36 and 0.10 medals respectively per million people.

    Sports: A neglected field in terms of government spending

    Budget allocation for sports has been below 0.1% for the past decade

    The percentage of the total budget allocated to the Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports, which oversees sports, games, and youth welfare programs, is abysmal. For over a decade, this allocation has remained below 0.1% of the total budget. This underinvestment could be a major reason why a country with the largest youth population ranks 71 in terms of medal tally in the 2024 Olympics.

    Over the past decade, the government has launched various initiatives to promote sports in India. To enhance Olympic and Paralympic performance, the Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports introduced the Target Olympic Podium Scheme (TOPS) in 2014. It ensures that a ‘core group of athletes’ have all necessary, personalised support in terms of foreign exposure, hiring of specific coaches, training and competition abroad.

    In 2018, another program was launched by the name “Khelo India Program” which aimed at reviving the sporting culture in India at the grassroots. It has been more than five years since the programme was launched, and has seen participation of around 20,000 athletes. 3,000 athletes identified as Khelo India Athletes are currently training at Khelo India Academies, and are given an out-of-pocket allowance of Rs 10,000 per month.

    A lot of noise, but not enough money: China spends ten times more than India on sports

    At the outset, it looks like the government has only revamped the names of various sports programs but changed little else. For instance, Sports Authority of India (SIA) centers have been renamed Khelo India Academies, but little to no effort have been put into increasing the budget allocation.

    India has aims to become a developed nation by 2047. To compete globally at a level that reflects our rising economic strength, India needs substantial investment in infrastructure and athlete development. In the FY25 Budget, the government has allocated Rs 3,442 crore for the development of sports, which translates to approx. $410 million. In comparison,, China spent around $3.2 billion in 2023, and has plans to spend around $1 billion in 2024.

    The cause of our medal drought is clear: sports in India is severely underfunded and has failed to  keep up with other nations. The government's ambitious goal of hosting the Olympics in 2036 may not materialze if we don’t do a big overhaul, in funding as well as infra and training for young athletes. 

    To excel on the global stage and nurture our talent, the Indian government needs to step up to the plate. Else we will continue to finish dead last in the race.

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    The Baseline
    09 Aug 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 09, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 09, 2024

    1. BSE:

    This stock market exchange saw an 8.4% surge on Thursday following the announcement of its Q1 results after market hours on Wednesday. The firm posted a revenue growth of 2.5X YoY at Rs 674 crore in Q1FY25, surpassing Trendlyne's Forecaster estimate by 14.5%. Adjusted net profit rose 2.6X YoY to Rs 265 crore, beating estimates by 14%.

    In Q1FY25, transaction charges, which make up more than half of the total revenue, soared 5.6X YoY to Rs 366 crore. Revenue from equity derivatives jumped to Rs 242 crore, compared to just Rs 1.6 crore in Q1FY24, thanks to a relaunch in May last year. However, the currency derivatives segment faltered as revenue plunged by 85% YoY, following the RBI mandate requiring traders to demonstrate foreign currency exposure to participate in this segment.

    BSE shares had surged 6% on July 31 after SEBI proposed seven key amendments to curb the FnO frenzy. SEBI had observed that most traders lose money on expiry day trading, where premiums are low but risk is high. One of the amendments aims to limit both NSE and BSE to only one weekly expiry contract each. 

    Analysts anticipate these changes to impact FnO volumes. But they also forecast a significant market share gain for BSE from its current 20% level, since these amendments are expected to impact NSE more severely, as it currently holds 80% market share with four weekly expiry contracts on different days, compared to BSE's two.

    MD & CEO Sundararaman Ramamurthy said, “BSE’s foray into single stock derivatives space from July 1, 2024, with a mid-month expiry, has gained considerable traction.” He highlights that performance has exceeded his expectations, with a total turnover of Rs 341 crore in July.

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Neutral’ rating on BSE due to the uncertainty surrounding potential new regulations for FnO. However, they view the relaunch of BSE derivatives products last year as a game-changer and expect the recent launch of stock derivatives to drive further market share gains for BSE.

    2. Adani Wilmar:

    This edible oils company rose by 10.6% over the past week, after Adani Enterprises approved a scheme of arrangement to demerge its food FMCG business and transfer it to Adani Wilmar, along with investments in Adani Commodities LLP.

    Adani Wilmar reported a net profit of Rs 313.2 crore in Q1FY25 compared to a net loss of Rs 78.9 crore in Q1FY24, helped by inventory destocking. Revenue grew 9.6% YoY to Rs 14,168.6 crore, during the quarter. The firm missed Trendlyne’s forecaster estimates for revenue by 1.6%, but beat net profit estimates by 81.9%. 

    Adani Wilmar got a boost from a notable increase in volumes, with edible oils up 12% YoY and Foods & FMCG up 42% YoY. The company increased its market share by 60 bps to 19% in the edible oil business, with its brand "Fortune" leading the segment. The firm’s market share in edible oil is nearly 1.5 times that of its next competitor, Patanjali Foods, dominating in North and Central India. CFO Shrikant Kanhere said, “We expect 30-40% YoY annual volume growth for the next three years once our Gohana plant is operational, enabling a more efficient in-house supply chain.”

    The company has broadened its product range with "Pehli Dhaar," a cold-pressed mustard oil, and is utilizing its established distribution network to boost food product sales and reach more customers. It plans to cover 50,000 rural towns by March 2025 to enhance product distribution. Adani Wilmar also aims to expand its export business, focusing on specialty chemicals and branded food products, to explore new markets.

    KRChoksey maintains its “Accumulate” rating with an upgraded target price of Rs 382.4, indicating a potential upside of 6.5%. The brokerage highlights favorable commodity prices, improved margins, and a scaling up of the food portfolio as drivers for future growth.

    3. Godrej Consumer Products:

    This personal products maker has declined more than 3.9% in the past two days after announcing its Q1FY25 results. Its revenue declined 3% YoY to Rs 3,409 crore in Q1, missing Forecaster estimates by 2.4%. This was largely due to a 25% YoY decline in GAUM ( Godrej Africa, USA, and Middle East).  Net profit grew 41.4% YoY to Rs 450.7 crore during the quarter, but missed estimates by 8.2%. 

    International markets (which make up around 37% of the total revenue), saw Godrej Consumer’s Indonesia business outperform, with a 7% YoY growth in volumes. The growth was led by its hair colour business, and the newly launched Stella Electric Diffuser. However, Africa, US & Middle East business volumes declined due to devaluation of Nigeria’s naira currency, and the Red Sea crisis. 

    In the domestic business, the homecare segment (which contributes around 38% of revenue) grew 8% YoY led by air fresheners and liquid detergent. However, the household insecticide business was impacted by severe heatwaves. The management highlighted that Goodknight Agarbatti is scaling up and gaining market share from unorganised incense stick players. Meanwhile, the personal care segment (contributing around 58% of the revenue) sales grew by 6% YoY. 

    Meanwhile, Godrej Consumer Products announced its entry into the pet care industry, by creating a subsidiary, Godrej Pet Care, with an expected cash investment of Rs 500 crore planned over the next five years. The production will begin in Q2FY26, and the company will have a manufacturing agreement with Godrej Agrovet, operating in the animal feed and agribusiness sectors. Aasif Malbari, the CFO acknowledged the jump in pet ownership in India, saying,  “Pet foods is a Rs 5,000-crore category with the potential for strong double-digit growth for the next few decades”.

    Post results, Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 1,700. The brokerage believes the implementation of disruptive innovations, the introduction of access packs, expansion into new growth categories, and increased advertising expenditure will contribute to a consistently robust growth trajectory. 

    4. Carborundum Universal:

    This industrial products company fell by over 10.8% over the past week. It announced its results on July 31s – the company’s net profit fell by 0.2% YoY to Rs 112.5 crore in Q1FY25, while its revenue fell by 2.4% YoY, mainly on the back of declines in electro minerals and ceramics segment revenues. The firm missed trendlyne’s forecaster estimates for revenue by 5.4% and for net profit by 14.7%. The stock shows up in a screener for stocks in the PE sell zone.

    Electro minerals are the basic raw material used in the manufacturing of abrasives and for surface preparation in tile and paint industries. Carborundum Universal manufactures these, as well as industrial ceramics like Zirconia Ceramic, which is used in the food industry for grinding applications. The company’s consolidated electro-minerals sales struggled in Q1, falling by 9% YoY to Rs 380 crore due to a drop in price realization by 4-6% from Chinese dumping. Consolidated ceramics sales fell by 6% YoY to Rs 270 crore, primarily due to delays in refractory orders. 

    China has cast a shadow on Carborundum Universal’s numbers. Analysts note that the firm has reported a muted set of results since the last four quarters on account of competition with Chinese abrasives, loss of a customer in engineered ceramics, and the decline of the Russian ruble, which negated the gains of growth in subsidiaries’ revenues.

    Sridharan Rangarajan, MD of the firm, commented: “For FY25, in the previous call  we said that full-year consolidated sales growth could be 9% to 11% and consolidated sales could be Rs. 5,100 to 5,200 crore. We are confident of delivering the same. We expect growth of 11% to 12% in Abrasives, 12% to 14% in Ceramics as told earlier. We maintain the same stands for Electro Minerals as well, a growth of 5% to 6%. Abrasive India growth would be 9% to 11%. We expect the second half to be better. All the projects that we plan to execute are in line and we are confident of what we guided in the last call.”

    Despite management optimism, ICICI Securities has downgraded the stock to a “Sell” rating with a target price of Rs 1,450. The brokerage highlights that due to its well-diversified and large product basket, the firm is a key beneficiary of the increased focus on hi-tech manufacturing in the domestic market. However, with near-term headwinds in mind, the brokerage has maintained Its target price and now values the stock at 36x FY26 EPS.

    5. Torrent Power:

    This electric utilities company surged 16.5% to its all-time high of Rs 1,908 per share on 31 July, the day after its Q1FY25 results. The company’s net profit grew by 88% YoY to Rs 972.2 crore, beating Forecaster estimates by 50.1% while its operating revenue rose by 22.9% YoY to Rs 9,110 crore, largely driven by higher merchant power sales of 1.7 billion units (vs. 400 million units YoY).

    During the quarter, the company reported a sales growth of 65% YoY in the generation segment from Rs 2,229.3 crore in Q1FY24 to Rs 3,677.6 crore in Q1FY25. Its transmission and distribution segment grew 4.7% YoY to Rs 6,934.3 crore while its renewables segment grew 5.5% YoY.

    The company also signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with AIA Engineering and Torrent Urja 16 to supply renewable energy. This agreement involves developing and setting up hybrid projects with a capacity of up to 33 MW in Gujarat. The power will be supplied to AIA's production units through open access from the TU16 project.

    Saurabh Mashruwala, Chief Financial Officer of the company said, “The current electricity market conditions are favorable for generators like us, given sufficient capacity and the lack of recent major investments in thermal power. We expect to reach 5 GW of renewable energy capacity in the next two to three years.” The company is capitalizing on these favorable conditions by investing in the development of two major transmission projects. The first, the Khavda Transmission Project, which has a return on equity of 15% and is expected to cost more than Rs 800 crores. Second is the Solapur transmission project which will involve an investment of Rs 470 crores.

    ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 1,825. The brokerage does not expect contribution to decline in the next three quarters, leading to moderation in quarterly profit, and expects EBITDA margin to be 17.1% in FY25 and 18.7% in FY26.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    08 Aug 2024
    Which stocks did superstar investors buy in Q1FY25?

    Which stocks did superstar investors buy in Q1FY25?

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    Investments by superstar investors like RARE Enterprises, Ashish Kacholia, Sunil Singhania, and Vijay Kedia are closely tracked by investors for valuable insights into the market. Their buys and sells help investors identify interesting sectors and stocks. Here we look at the buys made by these superstar investors during Q1FY25.

    (You can now also invest in shadow superstar baskets available on Starfolio, which are updated and rebalanced as per Trendlyne's superstar portfolios).

    In Q1, superstar investors made fewer additions and more stake sales, with some only making small increases in stakes and no new buys during the quarter. The chart below shows the changes in superstar investors' current portfolio net worth. Note that net worth reflects both changes in current holdings as well as new buys and sells. 

    Some superstars see a fall in their net worth in Q1FY25

    The public portfolio of each superstar investor indicates their investing style and preferred approaches. The following chart gives a breakdown of the dominant sectors in each investor’s portfolio. 

    Sectors preferred by superstars

    Sector preferences vary among superstar investors – RARE Enterprises leans towards the textiles apparels & accessories sector, while Ashish Kacholia and Sunil Singhania favor the general industrials sector. Vijay Kedia’s preferred industry is automobiles & auto components. Dolly Khanna prefers the oil & gas industry, and Porinju Veliyath favors software & services.

    RARE Enterprises’ only buy is a minor stake in a healthcare company

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio, currently managed by Rekha Jhunjhunwala and RARE Enterprises, fell by around 10.9% to Rs 46,092.1 crore by the end of Q1FY25. During the first quarter, no new additions were made. RARE Enterprises made just a minor stake increase in healthcare facilities firm Fortis Healthcare by 0.1%. The portfolio now holds a 4.2% stake. Over the past year, the company’s share price has increased by 43.7%. 

    Ashish Kacholia adds a new listed company to his portfolio

    Ashish Kacholia’s net worth declined by 6.9% to Rs 2,718.5 crore after Q1FY25. During the quarter, the marquee investor added recently listed special consumer servicesAwfis Space Solutions to his portfolio, by buying a 4.8% stake. 

    Awfis Space Solutions debuted on the stock exchanges on May 30, 2024. The company’s share price has increased by 64.3% from its listing price. 

    During Q1, the ace investor also bought a 0.2% stake in Dhabriya Polywood. He now holds a 6.67% stake in the plastic products company. Kacholia added it to his portfolio in Q2FY24 by purchasing a  6.4% stake. The company’s share price has grown by 70.5% over the past year, outperforming its industry by 27.4 percentage points. 

    During Q1, Kacholia also bought a minor stake in Brand Concepts. He now holds 1.6% in the specialty retail company. The company’s share price rose by 65.9% in the past year. 


    Ashish Kacholia adds Awfis Space Solutions to his Portfolio

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund makes no new buys in Q1

    Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus Fund saw its net worth fall by 4.2% to Rs 2,711.3 crore after Q1FY25. The fund didn’t make any buys during the quarter. The fund’s activity in  Q4FY24 was also limited, adding just minor stakes to current holdings. Abakkus Fund increased its holdings in household appliances manufacturer, Hindware Home Innovation, to 4.5%.  It also added minor stakes in Shriram Pistons & Rings and IIFL Securities. 

    Vijay Kedia increases stake in an airline company

    Vijay Kedia’s net worth increased by 33.6% to Rs 1,659.9 crore after Q1FY25. During the April-June quarter, the ace investor did not add any new stocks to the portfolio and increased his stake in just one company – airlines stock Global Vectra Helicorp, by buying a 1.9% stake. Kedia now owns 4.9% of the company. Over the past year, the company’s share price has increased by 260.4%.

    Vijay Kedia buys a 1.9% stake in Global Vectra Helicorp

    Dolly Khanna adds five new companies to her portfolio in Q1

    Dolly Khanna’s net worth increased by 25.5% after Q1FY25 to Rs 615.7 crore, she publicly holds 21 companies. During Q1, the investor continued to expand her portfolio by adding five new companies and raising stakes in four others. Among her new investments is a 1.6% stake in capital market company Emkay Global Financial Services and a 1% stake in Tinna Rubber and Infrastructure, a specialty chemicals company. She also bought a 1.1% stake each in textile stock Super Sales India, non-ferrous metals company Nile and bank stock Ujjivan Small Finance Bank. 

    Dolly Khanna adds five stocks to her portfolio

    During the first quarter, Khanna bought a 0.53% stake inexploration & production companySelan Exploration Technology, taking her holding to 1.56%. She bought a 0.4% stake in breweries & distilleries company Som Distilleries & Breweries and now holds a 1.5% stake. The ace investor added minor stakes in the sugar stockZuari Industries and the housing finance company Repco Home Finance. She now holds 1.9% and 1.2% stakes respectively, in these companies. 

    Porinju Veliyath buys a small stake in an IT company 

    Porinju Veliyath’s net worth increased by 37.3% to Rs 262.3 crore after Q1FY25. During the first quarter, he increased investments in two companies. The investor bought a 0.4% stake in Aurum Proptech and now holds 4.9% in the IT consulting & software company. In the last one year this company has outperformed its industry by 21%.

    Porinju adds minor stakes in Aurum Proptech and TAAL Enterprises

    The ace investor also increased his stake in airlines industry company TAAL Enterprise by adding 0.2%, taking his holding to 1.3%. The company has a good durability score of 65. 




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    The Baseline
    07 Aug 2024

    Chart of the Week: Sectors and stocks with the highest dividend yields in the past year

    By Satyam Kumar

    There are two popular ways to generate returns from stocks: 1) when your capital appreciates with share price growth, and 2) dividends. Investing in dividend-paying stocks gives you a share of a company’s profits through regular cash payments. Such high-dividend stocks serve as reliable sources of income. 

    The dividend yield, expressed as a percentage, is the annual dividend payment relative to the stock’s current price. The significance of the dividend yield for a company lies in its ability to attract and retain investors for longer. A higher dividend yield boosts the stock’s appeal, especially for investors looking for a steady income.

    It's important to note that the dividend yield isn't a static figure; it changes as the stock price fluctuates. A falling stock price can inflate the dividend yield, a factor investors need to consider when analysing this metric. 

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we will look into sectors and companies with the highest 1-year dividend yield over the past year. The full high dividend screener is here.

    Aster DM Healthcare gives a special dividend after sale of its Gulf business

    Healthcare facilities company Aster DM Healthcare announced a special dividend of Rs 118 per share from the proceeds after the sale of its Gulf business. Its share price rallied after the company completed the separation of its India and GCC businesses on April 3. The management said the Indian healthcare market looks promising and, after segregation, the company would focus on increasing its footprint in India. 

    Through both greenfield and brownfield opportunities, the company aims to take its total bed count in India to more than 6,600 in the next three years. The expansion plan will encompass the upcoming Aster Capital in Trivandrum, and Aster MIMS Kasargod projects, and adding bed capacity to existing hospitals. The healthcare company will also be looking at potential markets such as Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh – while UP is a demographically younger market compared to South India, it is highly underserved when it comes to health facilities. The capital allocation for this expansion is in the range of Rs 1,000 crore.

    Indian Oil & its subsidiary Chennai Petroleum Corp. deliver the highest dividend yield among oil & gas companies

    The oil & gas sector had a dividend yield of 1.7% in the past year. Companies in the lead are Indian Oil Corporation, Chennai Petroleum Corporation and Bharat Petroleum with dividend yields of 7.2%, 6.1% and 3.8% respectively. It is important to note here that central public sector enterprises must pay a minimum annual dividend of 30% of profit after tax or 5% of net worth, whichever is higher as per guidelines given in 2020.

    In FY24, Indian Oil gave a 4X higher dividend of Rs 12 on a YoY basis, thanks to the cheap Russian crude that boosted gross refining margins over the past year. However, Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates that the dividend per share will fall to Rs 6.8 in FY25. This is because discounts have almost halved to $3-6/barrel from $8-10/barrel in FY24, mainly due to higher freight and insurance costs because of Ukrainian drone attacks. This is evident in the net profit of oil & gas companies in Q1FY25. Indian Oil saw its net profit decline 75.6% YoY, while Chennai Petroleum’s net profit declined by 35.8% on a YoY basis.

    Bharat Petroleum also saw its net profit decline by 73.3% on a YoY basis in Q1FY25. Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates the company will lower its dividend payout by 35.7% in FY25 compared to that in FY24. However, due to inflationary headwinds and a slowing global economy which might even lead to a recession in the US, crude oil prices are trading below the $80 level. This can be a major tailwind for refining margins and profitability, leading to potentially higher payouts/dividends.

    Vedanta’s dividend yield takes a hit, as it aims to deleverage balance sheet

    The metals & mining sector on the other hand had a dividend yield of 2.1%. Companies with the highest dividend payout in this sector are Vedanta, Coal India and NMDC with yields of 6.3%, 4.9% and 3.9% respectively. All three companies saw their share price nearly double over the past year.

    Contrary to the estimate beating dividend per share payout of Rs 101.5 in FY23, Vedanta missed the FY24 dividend payout estimates by 17.1%. This comes as the debt-heavy mining company works to deleverage its balance sheet via strategic demerger and asset sale. In Q4FY24, the company reduced its debt by 10% on a QoQ basis and improved its net debt to EBITDA ratio to 1.5X from 1.7X.

    Meanwhile, the banking & financial services firm had an overall dividend yield of 1% in FY24. The top dividend-paying stocks in this sector are ICICI Securities, UTI Asset Management Company and Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, offering yields of 5.2%, 4.8% and 3.5% respectively.

    Among the stocks that made it to the list, only Ujjivan Small Finance Bank’s share price fell over the past year.

    It’s worth noting that there are many reasons for companies to pay out dividends. While some aim to distribute profits back to shareholders, others might do so due to a lack of significant expansion plans. Companies that pay dividends are typically considered more stable and financially sound and, historically, dividend stocks have proven to be a safe bet during market downturns.

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    The Baseline
    07 Aug 2024
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - August 7 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - August 7 2024

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    1. Tata Consumer Products:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates a ‘Buy’ rating on this tea & coffee company with a target price of Rs 1,380, indicating a potential upside of 15%. In Q1FY25, Tata Consumer Products' revenue grew 15.6% YoY to Rs 4,391 crore. EBITDA margins improved 80 bps YoY led by strong performance in the international beverage segment and higher coffee prices within the unbranded business.

    Analysts Sumant Kumar and Meet Jain highlight the acquisitions of Capital Foods and Organic India, which contributed nearly 5% to the company’s revenue. They are optimistic about the company's plans to diversify its product portfolio through the ready-to-drink segment, and its entry into the branded dry fruits market. Additionally, the company plans to digitize its supply chain to improve operational efficiency and cost management.

    Kumar and Jain are positive about the management's focus on strengthening the core business and expanding its distribution network. They project a revenue and PAT CAGR of 12% and 20% respectively, over FY25-26.

    2. Granules India:

    ICICI Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this pharmaceuticals company with an upgraded target price of Rs 765. This indicates an upside of 16.5%. In Q1FY25, Granules India’s revenue grew 20% YoY to Rs 1,176 crore driven by a 45% increase in US sales, which accounts for 74% of total sales.

    The company saw a 90% YoY growth in EBITDA, driven by enhanced margins and a favorable product mix. Analysts Siddhant Khandekar and Shubh Mehta are upbeat about the company's plans to produce essential raw materials in-house to secure its supply chain.They are positive about Granules expanding its product portfolio, particularly in formulations, with a targeted launch of 7-8 products annually in the US. The firm’s Genome Valley plant began operations in March, which increased its production capacity to 2 billion units. 

    ICICI Direct projects a revenue CAGR of 12.9% and a net profit CAGR of 37.9% over FY25-26, driven by the company’s emphasis on increasing sales of its formulation products, especially in the US and Europe.

    3. NLC India:

    Axis Direct initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this electric utilities company with a target price of Rs 340, indicating a potential upside of 30.2%. In FY24, the company’s net profit rose 32.8% YoY to Rs 1,854,1 crore, missing Forecaster estimates by 7.4%. However, operating revenue fell 19.6% YoY to Rs 12,999 crore.

    Analysts Aditya Welekar and Darsh Solanki notes the company’s plans to increase its mining capacity from 50 MTPA to 102 MTPA, thermal power capacity from 4,640 MW to 10,465 MW, and renewable energy capacity from 1,431 MW to 8,059 MW by 2030. These capacity expansions will require a capital expenditure of Rs 1 lakh crore. These efforts aim to diversify cash flows and mitigate risks during the thermal power expansion.

    Welekar and Solanki value the conventional thermal business at 1.8 times the FY33 equity projections. They value the regulated mining business at 1.9 times FY26 equity, the renewable energy business at 9.0 times EV/EBITDA on FY26 EBITDA, and the merchant coal business at 7.0 times EV/EBITDA on FY26 EBITDA.

    4. Indraprastha Gas:

    Sharekhan has a ‘Buy’ rating on this non-electrical utilities company with a target price of Rs 648, indicating a potential upside of 19.4%. In Q1FY25, the company’s net profit fell 7.8% YoY to Rs 481.2 crore but beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 11.5%. Its operating revenue rose 3.3% YoY to Rs 3,520.6 crore driven by a 7.4% increase in the sales volume of piped natural gas (PNG), reaching 198.4 million standard cubic meters (scm) compared to 184.7 million scm in Q1FY24.

    Analysts note the company’s capex for FY25 is projected to be Rs 1,700-1,800 crore, with around Rs 300 crores spent in Q1FY25. They also highlight the company’s plans to establish 10 new compressed biogas (CBG) plants in FY25, with an estimated project cost of Rs 300-350 crore, shared equally in a joint venture. The company plans to expand its network by adding 90 new CNG stations.

    The analysts expect increased consumption from ongoing infrastructure development and the introduction of CNG-compatible bikes to enhance consumption levels. The growth in LNG sales, which benefits from higher margins, also contributes to this optimistic forecast.

    5. ICICI Lombard General Insurance:

    Geojit BNP Paribas maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this general insurance company with a target price of Rs 2,331, indicating an upside of 20.5%. In Q1FY25, the company’s gross direct premium income (GDPI) rose 20.4% YoY to Rs 7,688 crore, beating the industry’s 13.3% YoY growth. It appears in a screener of stocks outperforming their industry during the quarter. 

    The health segment saw a growth of 28.5% YoY, helped by the launch of a new health insurance solution ‘Elevate’. The analyst remains optimistic about the boost in the retail health business, driven by shifting consumer preferences and improved servicing capabilities. ICICI Lombard has expanded its product offerings with new long-term insurance products for the private car and 2-wheeler segment.

    Geojit projects ICICI Lombard’s premium earnings to grow at 16.4% CAGR and net profit CAGR of 25.1% over FY25-26, helped by its strong product mix and demand of its product by customers.


    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    02 Aug 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 02, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - August 02, 2024

    1. Zen Technologies:

    This defense company has jumped 11.2% since the declaration of its Q1FY25 results on July 28 and has risen 32.5% over the last month. In Q1FY25, the company’s net profit grew 68.8% YoY to Rs 79.5 crore, and its operating revenue increased 92.2% YoY to Rs 254.6 crore during the quarter. However, its EBITDA margin decreased by 10%. On 26 July, Zen Technologies hit a 5% upper circuit as it launched four AI-powered robots for the global defense market. The IP-owned robot products are Hawkeye, Barbarik-URCWS (Ultralight Remote Control Weapon Station), Prahasta, and Sthir Stab 640.

    Ashok Atluri, Chairman and Managing Director of the firm said, “Training and simulation, including virtual simulators and live ranges, are our cornerstone. Recently, the armed forces have recognized the need for tactical training, preparing soldiers for combat. This shift is expected to drive significant growth for our company and we are confident about meeting our guidance of Rs 900 crores of turnover in the current financial year.“ The company has an outstanding order book valued at Rs 1,158.5 crore as of June 30, a 113% YoY growth. This includes orders worth Rs 647.9 crore for training simulators and Rs 510.9 crore for anti-drone systems. Typically, the company receives a higher number of new orders in Q2 and Q3.

    Motilal Oswal has given a ‘Buy’ rating on Zen Technologies with a target price of Rs 1,820. The brokerage states that the current valuation of ZEN is still cheaper than that of other comparable companies in the private defense sector and expects a CAGR of 63% in revenue, 57% in EBITDA, and 57% in PAT during FY 25-27.

    2. Navin Fluorine International:

    This commodity chemicals company fell by over 4.4% after it announced its results on Tuesday. The company’s net profit fell by 16.8% YoY to Rs 51.2 crore in Q1FY25, while its revenue rose by 6.9% YoY. The firm missed Trendlyne’s forecaster estimates for revenue by 9.2% and for net profit by 17.1%. The stock shows up in a screener for stocks with PE higher than the industry PE.

    A big driver of the profit decline was  the company’s specialty chemical segment revenue falling by 30% YoY. It was affected by poor demand and inventory optimization efforts by global clients. By H1FY24, chemical companies lowered their expectations due to weak global demand from a European recession, U.S. inflation, and a slow recovery in China. 

    High inventory levels from over-ordering in previous years has resulted in less than 1% YoY growth in chemical output. In response, companies are focusing on cost reduction and improving efficiencies to counter falling production. It was the less profitable High-Performance Product (HPP) segment that was the primary revenue driver for Navin Fluorine, with a 66% YoY growth attributed to stable operations at the Dahej plant and increased utilization and sales of new R32 gas for compressors and refrigerators.

    Anish P Ganatra, CFO of the firm, said: “To strengthen the product pipeline in the specialty chemicals vertical we have established an R&D center in Surat and have introduced a new agro molecule in this center for a global major, with an annual peak revenue potential of Rs 40-50 crore over the next three years.” Ganatra also highlighted the signing of a supply agreement for a patented agrochemical product catering to the Japanese market, with an incremental annual revenue potential of Rs 20-30 crore in CY25. The firm’s  priority for the coming quarter is to commission the Agro Specialty project, with a capex of Rs 540 crore.

    Axis Direct has given a “Sell” rating on Navin Fluorine International, with a target price of Rs 3,135. The brokerage has revised estimates downward due to the slower-than-expected recovery in the Specialty Chemicals. The brokerage believes that long term growth prospects remain strong and the growth is likely to pick up towards the end of FY25 – but this is subject to project stabilization and optimal capacity utilization. It values the stock at 27x FY26E, which implies a downside of 17% from the CMP.

    3. Dixon Technologies:

    This smartphone manufacturer rose 6.8% in the past week as its Q1 results beat estimates on all fronts. The company reported a revenue growth of 101.2% YoY to Rs 6,588 crore, beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimate by 13%. Net profit rose 94.2% YoY to Rs 133.7 crore, beating forecasts by 20.6%.

    Dixon’s rise in sales was driven by their mobile and electronic manufacturing services (EMS) division. This division saw revenue growth of 189% YoY to Rs 5,192 crore and contributed 79% to the total revenue in Q1FY25, compared to 55% during the same period last year. The company currently manufactures smartphones and feature phones for brands such as Xiaomi, Motorola, and Samsung. Notable growth was seen in volumes of Motorola smartphones during Q1, driven by rising export orders. In the past four fiscal years, Dixon’s smartphone production capacity has increased at a CAGR of around 100%, thanks to their aim to add capacity of 15 million units on an annual basis.

    Dixon’s shares took a hit on Budget day after the Finance Minister proposed to cut import duty on mobile phones and chargers from 20% to 15%. However, Dixon Tech MD, Atul Lall says that the mobile manufacturing ecosystem has matured in India and expects the ‘Made In India’ trend to continue. He also said that India should make all the components going into the smartphones domestically, and expects a package for the component sector soon.

    During the earnings call for Q1, Lall said, “We are looking to capture 55-60% of the smartphone market after the Ismartu acquisition, which will add 10-12 million to the current production capacity of 45 million.” He also highlighted that the company plans to deepen its manufacturing capabilities by partnering with HTC for display module technology, with production anticipated to begin in FY26.

    BOB Capital Markets maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on Dixon Technologies. The brokerage is upbeat on the company’s outlook because of the strong performance in the mobile & EMS segment. They raised their EPS estimates for FY25/26 by 7% due to the company’s leading position in the electronics manufacturing sector. With a target price of Rs 13,800, the stock has a potential upside of 18.4%.

    4. Colgate-Palmolive (India):

    This FMCG company has risen by 6.8% over the past week after announcing positive Q1FY25 results on Monday. The company reported net profit growth of 33% YoY to Rs 364 crore, helped by inventory destocking and lower finance costs. Revenue rose 13% YoY to Rs 1,496.7.1 crore, driven by improvements in the toothpaste, toothbrush, and personal care segments. Net profit beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 9.6%, while revenue surpassed estimates by 4.5%. EBITDA margins also expanded 238 bps YoY to 34% during the quarter. 

    During the quarter, the company reported double-digit sales growth in the toothpaste segment, led by a 7-9% volume growth. The personal care brand Palmolive, which consists of body wash and hand wash, continued to experience strong growth but currently lacks a significant presence in rural areas. The company aims to expand its personal care footprint in India, focusing on the high-growth body wash segment. 

    Over the past month, Colgate-Palmolive has risen by 17.6%, outperforming its sector’s by 11.5%. The company witnessed a pick-up in domestic demand in Q1. According to Prabha Narasimhan, the Managing Director & CEO, “We have seen continued demand pickup in rural markets outpacing growth in urban markets for the second quarter in a row”. The re-launch of the Colgate Strong Teeth toothpaste brand helped drive rural growth. Colgate has continued to add new products, increase investments in advertising, and expand its distribution network. During the quarter, ad spends rose 10% YoY.

    The company’s peers like Hindustan Unilever, Dabur, and Emami reported a good first quarter and also highlighted signs of rural recovery. Dabur’s CEO said, “The timely arrival of monsoon coupled with a rural-centric Budget with a focus on rural infrastructure, agriculture, and employment is a key positive for the overall sector”. 

    Post Colgate’s earnings announcement, Axis Securities has a ‘Hold’ rating with a target price of Rs 3,050. But the brokerage believes the recent sharp rise in share price has capped its upside potential. It anticipates that increasing competitive intensity may further impact long-term growth prospects. 

    5. Kaynes Technology:

    This electrical equipment manufacturer rose by 4.3% over the past week, following the release of its Q1FY25 results. The company’s net profit rose 106.6% to Rs 50.8 crore, surpassing Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 14.7%. The company appears in a screener of stocks with growth in quarterly net profit with increasing profit margin YoY.

    Revenue grew 74.3% to Rs 532.3 crore, beating Forecaster estimates by 4.6%. This was led by strong growth in the automotive (up 56% YoY) and industrial & EV (up 2.7x YoY) verticals. The industrial vertical's revenue contribution increased by 19 percentage points YoY, reaching 55% during the quarter.

    Kaynes’ order book has grown to Rs 5,040 crore during the quarter, including major orders in aerospace, EV, and medical sectors. It has onboarded a leading medical equipment provider for exports to Europe and the US, anticipating significant revenue growth from this partnership.

    The company plans to expand its business into the outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) sector, focusing on modern chip packaging. This expansion is expected to boost exports, which currently makes up 15% of the order book. Commenting on this, Director and Chief Financial Officer Jairam Sampath said, “We anticipate exports to climb from 15% to about 20-25% by FY26, driven by chip packaging in the OSAT sector and expansion in aerospace and medical electronics segments.”

    Motilal Oswal retains a “Buy” rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 5,000. The brokerage notes that the Telangana facility, starting by the end of August 2024, will boost the company’s EMS capabilities, especially in the smart meter sector. It remains positive on Kaynes’s strong order book growth, projecting a revenue CAGR of 62% and a PAT CAGR of 78% for FY25-26.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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    The Baseline
    02 Aug 2024
    Superstar investors on a selling spree as markets hit record highs | Screener: Promoters increase pledges in these stocks

    Superstar investors on a selling spree as markets hit record highs | Screener: Promoters increase pledges in these stocks

    By Tejas MD

    You know the experience of watching someone blow air into a balloon? They puff and puff and sometimes they keep going even when the balloon looks about to pop. That's what investors have been feeling, with the Indian indices.

    We've seen yet another all-time high for the Nifty 50 this week: the benchmark index has hit its all-time high for the eleventh week in a row. The bull run is now a full gallop, and the Nifty is within kissing distance of 25,000 as of this writing. 

    US markets on the other hand, have recently struggled as the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell 3.6% on Friday, the most since 2022. Tesla and tech stocks took a beating as investors and analysts reconsidered the promise of AI. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones also fell on Friday, down 2.3% and 1.2%. Bloomberg called the sudden drop ‘scary and long overdue’ – the S&P 500 had been on a 17-month streak without a drop of 2%, unseen since 2007. 

    But Indian markets seem unbothered by US weakness, and managed to hit another all-time high on Monday. This long upward trend has investors biting their nails. This nervousness is also showing up in the portfolios of superstars. Investors like Kacholia and Singhania sold much more than they bought in Q1FY25.

    Which sectors are superstar investors worried about? And which are the few stocks that they bought?  

    In this week’s Analyticks,

    • Watching the balloon: Superstar investors think twice before adding new companies to their portfolios
    • Screener: Promoters that increased pledged shares QoQ in Q1FY25

    Let’s dive in.


    Superstar investors go on a selling spree as markets hit all-time highs

    Superstar investors have turned picky with their investments as the market heats up. 

    Many top superstar investors saw their portfolio net worth fall in Q2FY25 (till July 29) – the trend is visible in the new shareholding data for Q1FY25. This is not because of underperformance but because superstar investors have sold their holdings in many companies. The portfolio net worth of  Ashish Kacholia, Sunil Singhania, and Vijay Kishanlal Kedia has fallen at least 7.5% in Q2FY25 till July 29, as they went into selloff mode. 

    Major superstar investors see net worth fall in Q2 after major sells

    Dolly Khanna’s portfolio on the other hand, has risen the highest (9.6%) as this superstar investor increased her stake in many companies, and bought new stakes in five companies. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s portfolio, now managed by Rare Enterprises, has remained flat as the team did not make any big changes, but sold small stakes in seven companies. 

    Ashish Kacholia, who favors small-cap companies, sold his stake to below 1% in seven companies, and made only one new buy. Singhania and Kedia did not buy any new stocks in the past quarter, and each cut stakes to below 1% in two companies.

    Singhania and Kedia did not add any new stock to their portfolios in Q1

    In all, the superstars in focus bought new stakes in only ninecompanies (Khanna bought in five) and sold their stakes to below 1% in 21 companies. 

    Superstar investors are selling overvalued and loss-making companies

    When it comes to sells, it’s a particular kind of stock that is being dropped: the stock is either in the PE sell zone (trading higher than their historical PEs) or is making losses.

    Only two stocks in the sell list are exceptions here, being profitable and trading in the PE buy zone – Shankara Building Products and Route Mobile. Kacholia and Mukul Agarwal sold their stakes in Shankara Building Products to below 1%. 

    Most stocks sold by superstar investors trade in PE Sell Zone

    Superstar investors sell industrials, metals stocks

    General Industrials and Metals and Mining sectors dominate the sell list, followed by Consumer Durables and textiles. Interestingly, Goldman Sachs noted that American hedge funds are also selling off industrial stocks, amid concerns around GDP growth for the US and China. 

    General Industrials sector dominates the superstar sell list 

    The sells list also includes loss-making companies (negative net profit TTM) – Reliance Infra, Sterlite Technologies, Barbeque-Nation, and Dish TV India. 

    Expert investors are buying new stakes in financially strong, moderately valued and rising companies

    Three themes come to light when looking at the buy list – strong financials, rising share prices and moderate value. 

    Barring Paytm and Super Sales India, all other companies’ Trendlyne Durability score is in the ‘Good’ category. A high Durability score indicates good and consistent financial performance: stable revenues, profits, cash flows and low debt. 

    Superstar investors are buying rising stocks with good financial health

    Paytm is the only loss-making company that features in the list, bought by Akash Bhanshali. During the same quarter, Softbank, which had an initial investment in Paytm of around $1.55 billion, exited its position at a loss of 12%-14%. 

    Nile and Dilip Buildcon top the list with a durability score of 80 and 75. These two companies’ momentum and valuation scores are also in the good category, making them ‘Strong Performers’.

    Investors look to ride the momentum on moderately valued stocks

    Eight out of the nine companies bought recently have PE TTM lower than their sector PE. 

    In addition, the PEG ratio, which includes the net profit growth component into the PE ratio, is lower than one for all companies except Ujjivan. A PEG ratio of less than one can indicate undervaluation. Paytm (loss-making) and newly listed Awfis Space Solutions, are excluded in this analysis. 

    Most stocks bought by superstar investors are trading below their sector PE TTM


    The final theme among the stocks in the buy list is Momentum - a critical factor in a bull market. All stocks except Ujjivan Small Finance Bank have risen in the past quarter. 

    Only Ujjivan Small Finance Bank underperforms Nifty 50 in the past quarter and year

    Ashish Kacholia’s new bet Awfis Space Solutions, which was listed on May 30, is already up 81.6%. Top performers over the past year include Tinna Rubber, Emkay Global and Nile. 

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s old bet Titan outshines in long term growth

    When we look at long-term bets by these superstars, late Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s Titan and Mukul Agarwal's Neuland Labs come out on top. Titan and Neuland Labs respectively contribute to 33.7% and 5.7% of their portfolios. 

    Best performing long-term holdings: Jhunjhunwala's Titan, Mukul Agarwal's Neuland Labs

    Bhanshali’s Gujarat Fluorochemicals (27.3% of total holding value) and Kedia’s Atul Auto (24.7% of total holding value) on the other hand, have failed to beat the benchmark index in terms of share price performance since they bought these stocks. However, both these superstar investors’ net worth has almost doubled in the past year, due to high performance in their other holdings and fresh buys in new stocks. 

    India's superstar investors have become famous for their patience during the ups and downs of the market. The recent, increased selling in their portfolios could be an important signal. Warren Buffett once said, ‘Be fearful when others are greedy’. And right now, valuations of many stocks look greedy indeed.


    Screener: Promoters increasing pledged shares QoQ in Q1FY25

    Banking and construction stocks see a rise in promoter pledges in Q1FY25

    As the latest shareholding data for companies came in, we took a look at stocks that saw a significant rise in promoter-pledged shares (which indicates higher loans taken out against stock). This screener identifies companies where pledged shares by promoters are greater than 20% and have increased QoQ in Q1FY25.

    The screener has stocks from the banking, cement & construction and metals & mining sectors. Major stocks that appear in the screener are 360 One Wam, IRB Infrastructure Development, Max Financial Services, Kalpataru Projects, India Cements, Hindustan Zinc, and Lloyds Metals & Energy. Most of the stocks in the screener have seen their promoters also sell stakes over the past quarter. 

    360 One Wam stands out with the highest rise of 9.2 percentage points QoQ in promoter-pledged shares. This takes the promoter pledge to 40.5% of their total holding in Q1FY25. Yatin Shah holds a 3.7% stake in the company and has pledged 73.6% of his holding, while Kush Family Private Trust and Kyra Family Private Trust have a 1.5% stake each and have pledged 100% of their holding. 

    IRB Infrastructure Developers’ promoters increased their pledges by 6.4 percentage points in Q1FY25. This takes the company’s promoter pledge to 55.3% of their total holding in the company. IRB Holdings holds a 29.5% stake in the company and has pledged 56.9% of its total holding. 

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    01 Aug 2024
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - July 31 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - July 31 2024

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Thyrocare Technologies:

    ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this healthcare services company with a target price of Rs 825, indicating a potential upside of 6.3%. In Q1FY25 the company’s net profit rose 39.7% YoY to Rs 24.2 crore, beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 11.4%. Its operating revenue grew 16.3% to Rs 156.9 crore, driven by the pathology business. 

    Analysts Abdulkader Puranwala and Nisha Shetty state, "Thyrocare’s management is diversifying its historically high-volume test-focused business model." They note the recent launch of bundled test packages like 'Jaanch,' which grew 25% year-over-year, and the acquisition of Polo Labs and Think Healthcare to expand Thyrocare’s test menu and service offerings.

    Puranwala and Shetty expect Thyrocare to achieve a 33% earnings CAGR from FY25 to FY26, with an RoCE of approximately 22.3% by FY26. They project cumulative free cash flow generation of Rs 260 crore over the same period. While the stock has recently hit a fresh year high, it has underperformed the Sensex and Nifty over five years.

    2. Jindal Steel & Power:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates a ‘Buy’ rating on this iron and steel products company with a target price of Rs 1,200, indicating a potential upside of 22.9%. In Q1FY25 the company’s net profit fell 20.5% YoY to Rs 1,340.2 crore, but beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 6.9%. Revenue grew 8% to Rs 13,652.3 crore, driven by healthy volumes.

    Analysts Alok Deora and Sonu Upadhyay note that as of June 2024, the company has spent approximately Rs 17,500 crore of the Rs 31,000 crore allocated for its capital expenditure plan and aims to incur the remaining Rs 13,500 crore over the next three years. They also highlight that the management does not anticipate any cost increases due to the delay in the BOF-II plant expansion, which is expected to be completed by the second quarter of FY25.

    Analysts say, “While first-quarter results were slightly below our estimate, the outlook remains bright.” They expect ongoing capital expenditures to lead to more value-added products, resulting in better profitability.

    3. Pitti Engineering:

    KRChoksey retains a ‘Buy’ rating on this electrical equipment manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,379, indicating a potential upside of 15.1%. In FY24 the company reported a net profit rise of 53.3% to Rs 90.2 crore, beating Forecaster estimates by 21.5%. Operating revenue grew 9.2% to Rs 1,201.6 crore.

    Analyst Unnati Jadhav notes that the company has agreed to acquire 100% of Dakshin Foundry’s equity for Rs 153.1 crore. Dakshin Foundry specializes in high-quality castings from materials like ductile iron, grey iron, low carbon steel and alloy steel. In March 2024, the company also acquired Bagadia Chaitra Industries (BCIPL) for Rs 124.9 crore. The analyst believes these acquisitions will boost production capacity and operational capabilities, supporting the company's inorganic growth strategy.

    Jadhav expects a CAGR of 26.8% for revenue, 29.7% for EBITDA, and 42.9% for PAT over FY25-26 and anticipates FY26 EPS to be Rs 57.5 due to strong demand across various sectors, and increased capacity from recent acquisitions.

    4. Coforge:

    Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this IT consulting and software company with a target price of Rs 6,895. This indicates an upside of 9.2%. In Q1FY25, the company‘s revenue grew 1.8% YoY to Rs 2,400.8 crore, but missed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 1.1%. Net profit fell by 19.4% YoY to Rs 133.2 crore due to higher operating expenses and acquisition-related costs. The company witnessed increased demand in North America, which contributes 50% of its revenue.

    Analyst Omkar Tanksale highlights that the company’s growth is supported by a strong deal pipeline, with significant wins in the banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) and travel sectors. He expects continued momentum from these deals and anticipates the revival of the BFSI sector, projecting double-digit growth in FY25.  

    Tanksale notes concerns about cross-currency headwinds affecting margins but remains positive about the company’s growth potential and strong deal pipeline in the long term perspective.He projects a revenue CAGR of 20.9% and an adjusted PAT CAGR of 29.7% over FY25-26.

    5. Schaeffler India:

    Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this auto parts and equipment manufacturer with an upgraded target price of Rs 4,764. This indicates an upside of 13.3%. In Q2CY24, Schaeffler’s net profit grew 12.8% YoY to Rs 253 crore. Analysts attribute this growth to increased exports and expansion into new markets in Asia. The analysts state “The improvement in export performance can be attributed to the completion of de-stocking in the European market, and the rise of new markets in the Asia-Pacific region.”

    Analysts highlight Schaeffler’s focus on high-value electric vehicle components, domestic demand, and export revenues. They expect continued momentum from its railways business and see potential growth in the non-bearings segment, driven by innovative solutions for hybrid power trains.The management remains positive about the company's order wins, backed by its technological expertise and cost-effective manufacturing.

    The analysts project revenue and net profit CAGR of 16.8% and 19.5% respectively, over CY25-26, driven by Schaeffler’s strategic focus on localisation, expanding its product portfolio, and leveraging its brand equity in the aftermarket business.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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