The 17 reports from 8 analysts offering long term price targets for Granules India Ltd. have an average target of 288.57. The consensus estimate represents a downside of -23.24% from the last price of 375.95.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2020-09-15||Granules India Ltd.||ICICI Securities Limited||369.30||430.00||369.30 (1.80%)||14.38||Buy|
|2020-09-11||Granules India Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||344.30||410.00||344.30 (9.19%)||9.06||Buy|
With the generic version of Focalin XR being approved, GRAN now has 30 ANDA approvals (28 final and 2 tentative). It is used for the treatment of Focalin XR and its generic equivalent had US sales of USD556m for 12- There are 5 companies having final approval for this product, other than GRAN. Accordingly, we expect price erosion of 7-10% with market share gradually building up to 10% over 12 months post the launch of the product. This could provide meaningful upside to GRANs ANDA-led Formulations GRAN has multiple growth levers, such as (a) the ANDA pipeline for US generics (with some products having limited competition opportunity), which should drive an increase in the share of formulations for developed markets, (b) enhanced reach for core molecules, and (c) reduced opex through backward integration.
|2020-07-20||Granules India Ltd.||Geojit BNP Paribas||303.40||327.00||303.40 (23.91%)||Target met||Buy|
Geojit BNP Paribas
Granules achieved its highest ever quarterly revenue of Rs.736cr during Q1FY21 with a YoY growth of 24%. The Finished Dosages segment grew by 35% during the quarter as the company successfully launched Colchicine tablets and Butalbital APAP caffeine tablets in the U.S The company reduced its Promoter pledge percentage from 37.6% to 8.7% through the recent buyback process. We expect net profit to grow at a CAGR of 22% over FY20-FY22E on...
|2020-07-20||Granules India Ltd.||BP Wealth||265.15||312.00||265.15 (41.79%)||Target met||Buy|
Granules (GIL) posted revenues of INR 7,356mn with 23.6% YoY growth, which was ~6% above our estimate of INR 6929mn. Revenue growth was mainly driven by new product launches and an increase in market share of existing products. Gross margin improved (918bps YoY) due to higher formulation sales (52% of revenue vs 48% in Q1FY20). Subsequently, EBITDA margin expanded by 503bps to 25% level was 475bps higher than our estimate. EBITDA was partially impacted by one-off INR 280mn related to metformin recall (INR150mn) and COVID-19 related expenses (INR130mn). As per management EBITDA margin can be sustainable (~23% for FY21) as continued traction in the formulation business. GIL reported PAT of INR 1114mn, was above our estimate of INR 744mn driven by strong operational performance and lower tax rate (25.3% vs 32% in Q1FY20). Management expects to achieve 30% PAT growth in FY21 compared previous year and 25% for FY22 given the strong traction in base business along with new product launches in the US generics business. Post...
|2020-07-18||Granules India Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||264.05||315.00||264.05 (42.38%)||Target met||Buy|
18 July 2020 Post delivering spectacular earnings growth (76% YoY) in FY20, Granules Indias (GRAN) posted strong revenue/EBITDA/PAT in 1QFY21. This was led by new launches in formulations (FDs) and better market penetration for intermediates (PFIs). We have raised our EPS estimate by 12%/6% for FY21/22E to factor in (a) the increased FD business on account of ANDA launches in the US, (b) addition of new molecules in the API segment, (c) increased traction in existing products, and (d) improving profitability due to backward integration. We value GRAN at 14x 12M forward earnings to arrive at price target of INR315. GRANs 1QFY21 sales were up 23.6% YoY to INR7.4b (v/s est. INR6.7b), led by 35% YoY growth in FDs (INR3.9b; 52% of sales) and 45% YoY growth in intermediates (INR1.4b; 19% of sales). API sales (29% of sales) declined moderately by 1% YoY, affecting overall growth to some extent. Adjusting for the same, Gross Margin (GM) for the company stood at 60.3% and expanded 990bp YoY, led by larger share of FDs and PFIs.
|2020-07-14||Granules India Ltd.||BP Wealth||241.40||241.40 (55.74%)||Buy|
Weak demand coupled with logistic/Supply chain issue lead to Muted Quarter We expect the companies under our pharmaceuticals coverage to report flattish revenue growth in Q1FY21 with 14.2% decline in profitability, on account of weak domestic business, negatively affected by COVID-19 lockdown. The US business is likely to remain moderate on account of reversal of benefits of stocking at the wholesale level in Q4FY20, lower sales from seasonal products (gTamiflu, speciality products of Sun Pharma) and weak demand for injectables (Aurobindo) due to sharp drop in patients visiting physicians and hospitals. However, companies with higher exports will benefit due to appreciation in the USD-INR by ~5% QoQ. With respect to domestic markets, the growth is likely to favour companies with a larger presence in chronic therapy despite lockdown led restrictions....
|2020-06-09||Granules India Ltd.||Geojit BNP Paribas||214.35||233.00||214.35 (75.39%)||Target met||Buy|
|2020-06-04||Granules India Ltd.||BP Wealth||184.20||227.00||184.20 (104.10%)||Target met||Sell|
Granules (GIL) posted revenues of INR 5,999mn with 2.2% YoY decline, which was ~14% below our estimate of INR 6945mn. Revenue growth was mainly impacted by the restriction imposed on export of Paracetamol API, PFI and FD's (which was uplifted for PFI & FD's in the month of April and for the API in the month of May) and disruption in logistics (revenue loss of INR600 to700mn). However, post lifting of restriction on the export of paracetamol, capacity utilization has improved significantly now. Gross margin improved (754bps YoY) due to higher formulation sales (57% of revenue vs 52% in Q4FY20). However, EBITDA margin expanded by barely 75bps to 16.7% level was 279bps lower than our estimate due to higher employee cost (up 43.8%) and one time INR 217 Mn impairment of...
|2020-06-03||Granules India Ltd.||Anand Rathi||184.20||227.00||184.20 (104.10%)||Target met||Buy|
Outlook and Valuation. Its dominance in key APIs (paracetamol, ibuprofen, metformin) would help Granules emerge a prime beneficiary as the Covid-19 outbreak has led to a surge in demand for such drugs. Granules is likely to retain strong traction for the next couple of years driven by formulations and the healthy contribution from new capacities. We expect ~25%/~23% revenue/PAT CAGRs over FY20-22. At the CMP, the stock trades at 9x FY22e EPS of `20. Risks: 38% of promoters' holdings have been pledged;...
|2020-02-03||Granules India Ltd.||Ashika Research||162.20||170.00||162.20 (131.78%)||Target met||Buy|
Granules India Ltd. (GIL) continue to deliver strong earnings in Q3FY20. Revenue growth was marginally below expectation while EBITDA improving further. Revenue grew by 11.4% YoY to Rs. 704 cr in Q3FY20 due to increased contribution from regulated markets along with higher contribution from Pharmaceutical Formulation Intermediates (PFI) (up 8% YoY) and Finished Dosage (FD) (up 23% YoY). Geographically, North America (up...
|2020-02-03||Granules India Ltd.||Geojit BNP Paribas||162.20||175.00||162.20 (131.78%)||Target met||Buy|
Geojit BNP Paribas
Q3FY20 revenue grew by 11% YoY driven by higher sales in Formulations (FD) (~23%YoY) segment and PFI (Pharmaceutical formulation Intermediaries )(~8%YoY). EBITDA registered a 44% growth YoY while margin improved by 300bps to 23% on account of better capacity utilisation which is also reflected in the PAT growth of 59% YoY. Recognized an impairment loss of Rs 32crs in Q3FY20 on sales of joint venture (JV) business Biocause (China) which will be offset in...
|2020-01-22||Granules India Ltd.||BP Wealth||149.25||190.00||149.25 (151.89%)||Target met||Buy|
Granules (GIL) posted revenues of INR 7040mn with11.4% YoY increase, which was 5% below our estimate of INR 6,337mn. Revenue growth was mainly driven by Formulation (FD) (23% YoY growth) segment, led by new product launches and better pricing in existing products in the regulated market. EBITDA margin expanded by 524bps to 23.2% level was 388bps higher than our estimate due to 755 bps improvement in gross margin led by improved product mix. During the quarter the company charged one time exceptional item of INR 320mn provided for impairment in Biocause. Adj. to exceptional item, PAT came above our estimate at INR961mn (est INR798mn) driven by the operationally superior performance. R&D; spend was at 3.2% during Q3FY20, 101bps higher than last year same quarter. GIL's board approved buy back of 12.5mn (4.92% of equity capital) shares at INR200 per...
|2020-01-21||Granules India Ltd.||Motilal Oswal||149.25||165.00||149.25 (151.89%)||Target met||Buy|
21 January 2020 GRAN is on a sustained earnings growth trajectory, led by higher business from forward integration, expanding its portfolio and reach. We raise our EPS estimate by 6.5%/7.3%/2.2% for FY20/21/22 to factor in (a) increased formulation business on account of ANDA launches in the US and (b) improving profitability due to forward integration and addition of higher- margin API molecules in the portfolio. Reiterating Growth was mainly driven by strength in the formulation dosage (FD) segment (+23% YoY; 54% of total sales). Gross margin expanded 750bp YoY to 50.7%, led by the higher share of formulation revenue. 20.2%), partly offset by higher other expenses (+160bp YoY) and staff cost (+70bp YoY). Strong EBITDA growth and a lower tax rate led to PAT growth of 56.4% YoY to INR944m (our estimate INR876m). GRAN reported one-time provision charge for impairment of INR320m related to the divestment of Granules Biocause Pharma, resulting in lower reported PAT of INR641m.
|2019-12-23||Granules India Ltd.||Nirmal Bang Institutional||127.15||127.15 (195.67%)||Not Rated|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
We recently met the management of Granules India - A vertically integrated pharmaceutical company focused on exports to regulated markets -North America, EU and LATAM. The company has organized its business into 3 broad divisions Core Focus Molecules, US Generics and Onco/Multi API. The Core Focus Molecule business is built around 8 molecules which are Ibuprofen, Paracetamol, Metformin, Methocarbamol, Guaifenesin and three newly launched molecules Losartan, Cetrizine and Fexofenadine. The Company manufactures/sells these molecules in all formats - APIs, PFIs, and FDs. About 80% of the FY19 revenue (Rs22,792mn) came from the core products. US generics comprise 20% of the revenues and it is still scaling up...
|2019-11-08||Granules India Ltd.||Axis Direct||120.10||144.00||120.10 (213.03%)||Target met||Buy|
Granules India (GRAN) is a vertically integrated pharmaceutical company, headquartered in Hyderabad, India. GRAN is one of the largest manufacturers of key APIs like Paracetamol, Ibuprofen, Metformin, Guaifenesin and Methocarbamol for developed and emerging markets.
|2019-10-25||Granules India Ltd.||Geojit BNP Paribas||124.20||137.00||124.20 (202.70%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Geojit BNP Paribas
Q2FY20 revenue grew by 20% YoY driven by higher sales in Formulations (FD) (~34%YoY) segment and PFI (Pharmaceutical formulation Intermediaries )(~37%YoY). Granules to exit the JV business in Omnichem (India) and Biocause (China) citing lower capacity utilization and issues related to environment compliances in China. EBITDA registered a 37% growth YoY while margin improved by 260bps to 19.7% on account of better capacity utilisation while...
|2019-10-24||Granules India Ltd.||BP Wealth||124.35||124.35 (202.33%)||Sell|
Granules (GIL) posted revenues of INR 6,995mn with 20.4% YoY increase, which was 10% higher than our estimate of INR 6,337mn. Revenue growth was mainly driven by PFIs (43% YoY growth) and Formulation (FD) (34% YoY growth) segments, led by new product launches and better pricing in existing products in the regulated market. EBITDA margin expanded by 322bps to 20.5% level was 159bps higher than our estimate due to 322 bps improvement in gross margin led by improved product mix and easing RM costs. Adj.PAT came above our estimate at INR958mn (est INR671mn) driven by the operationally superior performance. During the quarter, GIL sold its 50% stake in Granules Omnichem JV for ~INR1,099mn( 2.2x Book Value) to JV partner. As it does not delivering desired result with lower capacity utilisation and lower return on capital. GIL is also initiated to sell its stake in...
|2019-08-01||Granules India Ltd.||HDFC Securities||91.60||170.00||91.60 (310.43%)||Target met||Buy|
The mgmt is confident in achieving 20/25% revenue/PAT CAGR over the next few years driven by the ramp up in formulations and US sales by leveraging its expanded facilities. Increased efficiencies and oplev will enable EBITDA margin improvement (+200bps to 19% over FY19-21E). With limited capex requirements over the next few years, healthy FCF (Rs 1.5bn+ annually) will enable debt reduction (net debt at Rs 8.63bn now). We model 16/23/22% revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR over FY19-21E. At 8.0/6.5x FY20/21E EPS, Granules is trading at a steep discount to peers. Improving fundamentals and promoter pledge release will drive re-rating. We maintain BUY on Granules following yet another quarter of robust YoY growth driven by expanded capacities. EBITDA margin at 19.9% was 300bps above estimates, despite a 5% miss on revenue. Our TP is unchanged at Rs 170 (12x FY21E EPS).
|2019-08-01||Granules India Ltd.||BP Wealth||91.60||155.00||91.60 (310.43%)||Target met||Buy|
Granules (GIL) posted revenues of INR 5,953mn with 31.3% YoY increase, which was slightly below our estimate of INR 6,235mn. Revenue growth was mainly driven by the Formulation (FD) (57.6% YoY growth) segments, led by gMethergine along with new product launches and better pricing in existing products in the regulated market. FD revenue contribution stood at 48% vs 40% in Q1FY19. EBITDA margin expanded by 391bps to 19.9% level, was 323bps higher than our estimate due to 490 bps improvement in gross margin led by improved product mix and easing RM costs. Adj. PAT came above our estimate at INR832mn (est INR650mn) supported by higher profits from the JVs (INR...
|2019-06-24||Granules India Ltd.||Axis Direct||95.80||107.00||95.80 (292.43%)||Target met||Buy|