Oil And Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. share price target

ONGC’s 4QFY26 standalone revenue came in line with our est. at INR359b. Crude oil/gas sales were 4%/5% below our est. at 4.6mmt/3.8bcm. Reported oil realization was USD78.3/bbl.

ONGC's operating momentum is improving as production stabilises across mature assets and new projects move towards commissioning. Upcoming production drivers, including offshore developments and new well gas, are expected to boost volume and improve the gas mix. The growing contribution of premium-priced new well gas is expected to enhance revenue quality and account for 24% of the company's total natural gas output by FY27. The management said it is taking...

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has confirmed a decisive breakout from a well-formed rounding bottom pattern on the weekly timeframe, signaling a structural trend reversal from accumulation to expansion. The stock has reclaimed its key moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200 EMA), indicating strong improvement in medium- to long-term momentum. Price action has also moved above the...

ONGC’s Q3FY26 adj. EBITDA/PAT (standalone) came in at INR 168bn/INR 83.7bn (-9%/+2% YoY) vs. I-Sec’s estimate of INR 174/INR 81.7bn. Consol. EBITDA/PAT stood at INR 268.6/INR 99.8bn (+3%/+16% YoY).

ONGC’s 3QFY26 revenue came in line at INR315.5b. Crude oil/gas sales were in line at 4.7mmt/3.9bcm. Crude oil production declined marginally QoQ/YoY, while natural gas production remained flat QoQ/YoY.

fell sharply to USD61.6/bbl from USD72.6/bbl YoY. Consequently, revenue fell 4.5% QoQ and 6.4% YoY to Rs315.5bn (PLe: Rs309.8bn; BBGe: Rs316.8bn). EBITDA stood at Rs173.2bn (PLe: Rs158.7bn; BBGe: Rs160.1bn), declining 2.1%...

Performance above expectations, given better-than-expected performance of refinery subsidiaries (HPCL and MRPL)

ONGC’s Q2FY26 adj. EBITDA/PAT (standalone) came in at INR 175bn/INR 98.5bn (-3%/-18% YoY) vs. I-Sec’s estimate of INR 179.7/INR 96.5bn. Slightly lower-than-estimated realisation and higher opex drove the underperformance.

Performance above expectations due to better-than-expected performance of subsidiaries (HPCL and MRPL)

ONGC’s 2QFY26 revenue came in line with our est. at INR330b. Crude oil/gas sales were in line with our est. at 4.8mmt/3.9bcm. VAP sales stood at 592tmt (est. 681.5tmt).

Natural gas revenue improved YoY aided by higher nomination gas price at USD 6.64/MMBTU versus USD 6.50/MMBTU Q1FY25 and strong new well gas contribution at USD 8.26/MMBTU, delivering revenue of Rs. 1,703cr with a 20% premium. EBITDA grew 0.5% YoY to Rs. 17,185cr, while EBITDA margin expanded 520bps YoY to 53.7%, supported by improved operating efficiency. ONGC's outlook is reinforced by its offshore exploration successes, notably the Vajramani' prospectus and Suryamani' pool discovery, highlighting its exploration *over or under performance to benchmark index led growth potential. Production from the PY-3 field along with special dispensation...

New Well Gas (NWG) expected at 2.6bcm in FY26 with sharply lower oil price realization of USD66.1/bbl in Q1 vs USD73.7/bbl in Rs322bn). EBITDA of Rs186.6bn (-2% QoQ) was in-line with our estimate of 187.6bn & consensus of Rs182bn. Lower DDA/write-offs of Rs80bn vs Rs111bn in the previous quarter was partially countered by lower other income of...

Oil production in KG-Basin to ramp up from 35kbopd to 45kbopd Mixed production profile of standalone oil (+0.4% QoQ) and gas (-1.9% QoQ) combined with marginally higher oil price realization of USD73.7/bbl in Q4 vs USD72.6/bbl in Q3FY25 resulted in revenues of Rs349.8bn, +3.8% QoQ. EBITDA of Rs190bn (+0.2% QoQ) was 3.8% higher than our est of 183.2bn & consensus of Rs179.7bn. Much higher DDA led by write-offs resulted in PBT declining by 20% QoQ to Rs88bn (PLe Rs107bn) despite growth in rev. PAT stood at...

ONGC’s Q3FY25 SA EBITDA came in at Rs170.4bn, a 4% beat to our estimate, mainly led by higher-than-expected revenues. RPAT at Rs82.4bn was a 4% miss on higher DD&A; and lower other income.

ONGC’s 3QFY25 EBITDA was in line with our estimate at INR189.7b, as crude oil/gas sales came in line. Both crude oil and natural gas production trends were flat QoQ.

ONGC’s Q2FY25 SA EBITDA came in at Rs170.3bn, a 9% beat to our estimate, led by lower-than-expected survey-dry wells expense and levies.

ONGC’s reported EBITDA stood at INR182b (flat YoY) in 2QFY25, in line with our estimate. PAT was 30% above our estimate, mainly aided by higherother income.