78.50 -1.70 (-2.12%)
NSENov 27, 2020 03:31 PM
The 22 reports from 8 analysts offering long term price targets for Oil And Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. have an average target of 88.67. The consensus estimate represents an upside of 12.96% from the last price of 78.50.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2020-11-24||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||Geojit BNP Paribas||78.50||86.00||78.50||9.55||Buy|
Geojit BNP Paribas
While crude oil prices are witnessing sequential improvements, supported by volume growth from Hazira plant and KG98/2 project in long-run. Hence we upgrade our rating to BUY on the stock with revised target price of Rs. 86 using SOTP valuation....
|2020-11-17||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||71.30||104.00||71.30 (10.10%)||32.48||Buy|
|2020-11-14||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||Motilal Oswal||71.30||90.00||71.30 (10.10%)||14.65||Buy|
|2020-09-07||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||SMC online||74.45||74.45 (5.44%)||Results Update|
operating profit to Rs 8839.29 crore. Other income of the company fell 30% to Rs 1079.41 crore. Interest cost fell 1% to Rs 1497.66 crore. Depreciation (includes Depletion, Amortization and impairment losses) cost increased 2% to Rs 5847.94 crore. PBT was down 77% Rs 2573.1 crore. Tax expenses were down 79% to Rs 922.19 crore. Net...
|2020-09-02||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||ICICI Securities Limited||80.30||80.00||80.30 (-2.24%)||Target met||Hold|
ICICI Securities Limited
Crude oil prices stayed volatile in Q1FY21. Brent crude oil prices fell up to ~US$17/bbl while WTI oil prices traded in the negative for the first time in April. With demand increasing following a resumption of economic activities & Opec output cuts, Brent oil prices recovered in May, June. Average Brent crude oil prices remained lower at US$31.4/bbl, a decline of US$19.2/bbl QoQ. In Q2FY21E, oil prices are in range of US$45/bbl. Going ahead, we model net realisation of US$39.4/bbl for FY21E, US$48.5/bbl for FY22E at Brent oil prices of US$41/bbl, US$ 50/bbl, respectively, taking into account...
|2020-09-02||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||Motilal Oswal||79.05||105.00||79.05 (-0.70%)||33.76||Buy|
2 September 2020 Net oil realization stood at USD28.7/bbl (v/s est. Net sales were in line at INR130b (-51% YoY). EBITDA stood at INR59b (v/s est. +26%, -61% YoY), on lower other expenditure. This was primarily due to lower travelling/employee cost, lower statutory levies and cess, and lower feedstock gas prices at Dahej petchem plant. ONGC believes that DD&A; may remain at the same levels but other costs may decline significantly, led by various cost cutting measures. Tax was higher at 45.1% (v/s est. 33.3%), due to further provisioning of Service Tax/GST on Royalty as contingent liability. The matter is listed for hearing in the second week of Sep20 before the Honorable High Court of Rajasthan.
|2020-09-02||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||80.30||96.00||80.30 (-2.24%)||22.29||Buy|
|2020-07-19||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||HDFC Securities||80.30||86.00||80.30 (-2.24%)||9.55||Accumulate|
Upstream players: We expect a sharp 34-36% QoQ decline in revenue for ONGC and OIL respectively, led by lower (1) crude realisations at INR 2,393/bbl, down 48/33% YoY/QoQ, (2) prices of VAPs, (3) 26% cut in domestic gas price realisation. Revenue for our coverage universe is likely to decline by ~50/45% YoY/QoQ owing to the lockdown and sharp correction in crude oil and gas prices. This has resulted in a decline in sales for OMCs, RIL, GAIL and CGD entities and lower realisation for upstream companies. We expect EBITDA for oil and gas companies under our coverage to decline by 30% YoY in 1Q owing to lower refining margins and per unit EBITDA margins for CGD companies.
|2020-07-03||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||SMC online||83.75||83.75 (-6.27%)||Results Update|
ONGC reported 7% decrease in its topline to Rs 104488.95 crore in Q4FY20 compared to corresponding previous year period. OPM fell to 3.5% from 15.6% leading to 79% fall in operating profit to Rs 3638.66 crore. Other income of the company rose 39% to Rs 3525.37 crore. Interest cost rose 52% to Rs 2191.34 crore. Depreciation (includes Depletion, Amortization and impairment losses) cost increased 8% to Rs 6771.78 crore. PBT before EO reported loss of Rs 1799.09 crore compared to profit of Rs 12370.11 crore. The...
|2020-07-02||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||IDBI Capital||81.85||95.00||81.85 (-4.09%)||21.02||Buy|
ONGC's Q4FY20 result was impacted negatively by higher impairment losses (Rs 49bn), higher forex loss (Rs11.1 bn) and higher dry-well write off (Rs26.4 bn). Revenue was down 20% YoY to Rs 214.6bn on the back of 20% YoY lower crude oil realization at US$50.5/bbl. Oil sales volume declined by 7.3% YoY to 5.4mmt whereas gas sales volume declined 10.6% YoY to 4.7bcm. Further, standalone EBITDA declined by 37% YoY to Rs5 bn due to higher forex losses of Rs11.1bn. The company reported net loss of Rs31 bn while adjusted PAT declined 83% YoY to Rs7.1 bn. We forecast oil price of US$40/50/bbl for FY21/FY22 while oil and gas production decline of 2% for FY21 and 1% growth in FY22. We resume our coverage...
|2020-07-01||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||HDFC Securities||81.85||86.00||81.85 (-4.09%)||9.55||Accumulate|
Our TP is INR 86 (8x EV/e Sep-21E standalone earnings and INR 25 from investments).The stock is currently trading at 2.4x FY22 EV/e. Our ADD recommendation on ONGC with a TP of INR 86 is premised on rich OCF yield of 6/35% and divided yield of 14% for FY21/22E. We believe the current valuations are contextually low after adjusting for investments (OVL+ other) at 4.0x FY22 PER
|2020-06-30||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||Motilal Oswal||80.45||105.00||80.45 (-2.42%)||33.76||Buy|
30 June 2020 Standalone revenue of INR214.6b (-20% YoY, -10% QoQ) was marginally higher than our estimate. The YoY decline was primarily due to lower oil price realization (at USD49/bbl in 4QFY20). However, EBITDA came in lower than estimate at INR85.9b (~-30% YoY/QoQ), impacted by higher other expenditure. ONGC recorded INR11.1b on account of exchange loss and INR3.7b on account of Ind-AS 116 related adjustment. If adjusted for the above stated two charges, EBITDA stands at INR101b (in line v/s est. DDA stood at INR80.4b (v/s est. Higher DDA and lower other income resulted in PBT of INR10.1b (lower ~82% YoY/QoQ).
|2020-04-22||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||ICICI Securities Limited||67.60||65.00||67.60 (16.12%)||Target met||Sell|
ICICI Securities Limited
Opec+ output cut deal not enough; oversupply to continue From the start of 2020, Brent oil prices have declined ~60% while WTI oil prices went below zero. In March, a disagreement between Opec and Russia regarding production cut led to a price war in the global market. This led Brent oil prices to drop to ~US$30/bbl. In April, finally Opec+ announced a deal to reduce oil output by 9.7 million barrels per day (mbpd). As per IEA, global oil demand could drop by ~23 mbpd in Q1FY21E amid spread of Covid-19, which meant that even if a 9.7 mbpd output cut takes place in May,...
|2020-04-01||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||65.75||110.00||65.75 (19.39%)||40.13||Buy|
|2020-03-31||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||ICICI Securities Limited||65.75||65.00||65.75 (19.39%)||Target met||Hold|
ICICI Securities Limited
Crude prices witnessed a sharp decline in March due to spread of Covid-19 across the globe and Opec deal failure. A likely increase in oil output by both Saudi Arabia and Russia from Q1FY21E and lower demand are expected to lead to a sizeable oversupply in the oil market. Subsequent low oil prices are expected to significantly affect ONGC's profitability....
|2020-02-25||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||Geojit BNP Paribas||89.10||89.10 (-11.90%)||Hold|
Geojit BNP Paribas
The volatility in crude oil prices is expected to continue in short-term, while the new block should provide necessary uptick in production from FY21 onwards. We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock with a roll forward target price of Rs. 107 using SOTP valuation. Topline adversely impacted by weaker realizations In Q3FY20, standalone revenue fell 14.4% YoY to Rs. 23,710cr, on the back of a continued decline in crude oil prices in the global markets. Offshore business revenue dropped 16.8% YoY to Rs. 15,765cr, while Onshore business decreased to Rs. 7,945cr...
|2020-02-17||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||SMC online||102.80||102.80 (-23.64%)||Results Update|
profit to Rs 15655.46 crore. Other income of the company fell 34% to Rs 1744.44 crore. Interest cost rose 14% to Rs 1536.55 crore. Depreciation (includes Depletion, Amortization and impairment losses) cost increased 25% to Rs 7514.45 crore. PBT before EO fell 35% to Rs 8348.9 crore. The company had nil EO income/expense during the quarter compared to EO expense of Rs 10.26 core. PBT after EO fell 35% to Rs 8348.9 crore. Tax expenses fell 12% to Rs...
|2020-02-17||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||ICICI Securities Limited||102.80||110.00||102.80 (-23.64%)||40.13||Hold|
ICICI Securities Limited
ONGC declared its O3FY20 results that were below our estimates on the profitability front, mainly due to higher depreciation & amortisation costs and lower other income. Revenues declined 3.2% QoQ at | 23710.1 crore (our estimate: | 22823.2 crore) on account of marginally lower realisations as well as sales volume QoQ. The oil & gas production was largely in line with our estimates. As per expectations, the quarter witnessed nil subsidy burden while net realisations were at US$59.7/bbl. EBITDA during the quarter declined 7.5% QoQ and came in at | 12298.3 crore (our estimate:...
|2020-02-15||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||HDFC Securities||103.30||184.00||103.30 (-24.01%)||134.39||Buy|
Despite production cut from OPEC and non-OPEC countries, we expect the oil prices to remain muted owing to the robust supply from US Shale and weakening global macros. Thus, we do not foresee subsidy sharing in FY21/22E as well. Besides, ONGC will generate OCF yield of 32.1/35.1% and dividend yield of 9.7% over FY21/22E. Though the stock has remained out of flavor given GoI's stake sale to achieve its disinvestment target, it still remains a key overhang on the stock (in the last 2 years, GoI's shareholding shrank from 67.7% to 62.8%). We value ONGC at Rs 173/sh (8x Dec-21E standalone core EPS (adj. for dividend income) + OVL EPS and Rs 31 from other investments) vs the consensus TP of Rs 184. We maintain BUY on ONGC following an inline performance with our PAT estimate in 3QFY20. The current valuations after adjusting for investments (OVL and others) for FY21/22 are 1.5/1.3x EV/EBITDA, 3.6/3.1x PER. Such pessimism is unwarranted in our opinion.
|2020-01-06||Oil And Natural Gas .. +||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||123.45||210.00||123.45 (-36.41%)||167.52||Buy|