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The Baseline
04 Jan 2024
By Akshat Singh

In India, the investment landscape has shifted. While FIIs were net sellers in 2022, they were net buyers in Indian equities in 2023, contributing a total inflow of Rs 1.58 lakh crore. MFs were also net buyers, injecting nearly the same amount (Rs 1.57 lakh crore) as FIIs into Indian stocks. MFs were able to catch up to FIIs in terms of equity investments in 2023 as they were more consistent, and divested in only one month compared to a four-month outflow by FIIs. 

Sunil Singhania, a superstar investor and founder of Abakkus Asset Manager, says “When it comes to FII flows my views are very positive. In the next two to three years, FII flows into India will be very high.”

In the equity market, FIIs’ cash segment activity was a major factor, influencing index movements. Of the four months that Nifty 50 went lower, three had FIIs withdrawing from the equity market. 

When it came to futures and options, FIIs were net sellers with an outflow of Rs 6,319.8 crore and Rs 8.5 lakh crore, respectively. 

FIIs divested in three of four months that Nifty 50 declined

In this edition of Chart of the Week, we take a look at the monthly FII/DII data on Trendlyne’s FII/DII dashboard and identify major trends. 

Jan and Feb 2023 saw high FII outflows in equities

The equity markets began 2023 on a sour note, with FIIs taking out Rs 25,292 crore in January. This led to a 2.4% fall in the Nifty 50. However, a substantial Rs 1.2 lakh crore inflow into the options segment by FIIs led them to be buyers at Rs 91,618.4 crore. MFs were net buyers of equities with a total inflow of Rs Rs 21,353.2 crore in January 2023.

Equities overall saw major outflows in January, particularly in the financials and IT sectors, with consumer services, oil & gas, telecommunications, and auto sectors also seeing significant declines. Dr V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, pointed to profit booking as the key driver here. “The simple logic behind FII selling in January is that India is the only large market where FIIs are still sitting on good profits after the disastrous 2022 performance in most global markets.” 

In February 2023, FIIs divested Rs 636.4 crore from the equities. This month also saw FIIs return to index options, buying Rs 65,336.3 crore expecting market volatility. Sector-wise, FIIs reduced their stakes in metals, power and oil & gas, while investing in the capex-heavy capital goods sector, motivated by the Rs 10 lakh crore capex investment announced in the union budget 2023. This was followed by a 2% fall in the Nifty 50. MFs were net sellers, with an outflow of Rs 515.1 crore in February 2023. This selling was partly induced by the Adani-Hindenburg case.

Adani stocks attract 25% of March 2023’s total FII inflow

In March 2023, FIIs invested Rs 12,578.2 crore in equities and MFs invested Rs 20,764.3 crore surpassing FIIs investment. The major chunk of FII buying, amounting to Rs 15,446 crore, was made by GQG Partners in four Adani Group stocks. This also led to a 31% sequential rise in MF inflows, according to AMFI. 

FII investments continued in April 2023, with an inflow of Rs 15,733.4 crore in equities. FIIs turned overweight on the financials and automotive sectors, which constituted 50% and 14% of their total investment, respectively. On the other hand, MFs turned net sellers, with a total outflow of Rs 6,766.7 crore attributable to an outflow of Rs 4532.6 crore from the equity market. 

In May, FIIs had an inflow of Rs 37,369.3 crore in equities and an outflow of Rs  40,036.6 crore in index options. MFs invested Rs 2,446.5 crore into the equities market and had an overall outflow of Rs 2,359.6 crore.

Financials sector sees fluctuating investment patterns 

In June, FIIs invested Rs 43,310.8 crore in stocks, providing a positive boost to the market. MFs invested Rs 5,664 crore into the equities market. Mutual funds ended their two-month selling streak and re-emerged as overall net buyers with a total investment of Rs 514.6 crore. Most of the FII investment was done in the financial services, capital goods, and automobile sectors. According to Nirav Karkera, Head of Research at Fisdom, “The banking and financial services segment is large and fairly diversified into smaller, specific sectors. It saw FIIs and MFs reallocate funds from heavyweight banks to smaller banks and NBFCs.” 

 After significant inflows in previous months, FIIs turned sellers in the financial services and FMCG sectors. Their net purchases decreased in sectors like IT and capital goods, potentially influenced by rising bond yields, higher oil prices, and inflation concerns.

FIIs execute major sell-offs in options starting September

FIIs sold off Rs 18,893.8 crore in equities in September, driven by concerns over potential US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes to curb high inflation. The FIIs also began their options selling spree with a divestment of Rs 2.4 lakh crore. This sell-off was offset by MFs buying Rs 18,512.4 crore in equities. 

In addition, Chinese stocks showed an uptick due to their previous market decline and government efforts like interest rate cuts. This drew FII focus from India to China. 

FIIs continued their selling streak with a Rs 21,679.9 crore of shares divestment in October 2023. This led to a fall of 2.8% in the Nifty 50. But mutual funds invested Rs 16,916 crore in equities. The FII outflow was because of rising US treasury yields due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate stance, and market volatility from the Israel-Hamas conflict. 

Both FIIs and MFs were net buyers of equity in November, with inflows of Rs 9,433.8 crore and Rs 17,654.3 crore, respectively. This led to FII holdings in Indian equities dropping to a 10-year low, due to the mass selling from August to October. 

MFs, however, came to the rescue of Indian markets. According to ICICI Securities, MFs have adopted a more careful and focused strategy, favouring stable and promising sectors amid uncertainty. Healthcare, private banks, and auto saw substantial MF inflows, with multi-cap and mid-cap funds attracting the most attention.

In December 2023, FIIs were net equity buyers with an inflow of Rs 56,390.6 crore while MFs invested Rs 23,894.7 crore in equities. 

The influx of funds into equities was on the back of record highs in major indices and a pause in Fed rate hikes. However, FIIs were net sellers overall with an outflow of Rs 2.9 lakh crore due to selling in index options. Mutual funds also broke their two-month selling spree and became net buyers, with an inflow of Rs 412.3 crore.

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
04 Jan 2024
Market closes higher, Bandhan Bank's loans and advances rise 18.6% YoY in Q3
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50closed at 21,658.60 (141.3, 0.7%), BSE Sensexclosed at 71,889.05 (532.5, 0.8%) while the broader Nifty 500closed at 19,541.25 (174.1, 0.9%). Market breadth is overwhelmingly positive. Of the 2,036 stocks traded today, 1,345 were on the uptrend, and 655 went down.

Indian indices extended their gains from the afternoon session and closed in the green, with the benchmark Nifty 50closing at 21,659 points. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, dropped 5.4% and closed at 13.3 points. Bandhan Bank's loans and advances rose 18.6% YoY to Rs 1,15,964 crore in Q3FY24. Its total deposits also increased by 14.8% YoY to Rs 1,17,422. The bank's CASA ratio stood at 36.1%.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green following the benchmark index. Nifty Realty and Nifty Bank closed higher than their Wednesday’s close. According to Trendlyne's sector dashboard, realty was the top-performing sector of the day as it rose 6.2%. 

Major European indices traded in the green. US index futures traded higher, indicating a positive start to the trading session. The data released by Hamburg Commercial Bank indicated that the Eurozone’s composite PMI for December contracted to 47.6 against estimates of 47.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Shyam Metalics and Energy, Sun Pharma Advanced Research and MRF are in the overbought zone.

  • NBCC bags multiple orders worth Rs 98 crore from the Navodaya Vidyalaya Samiti for the construction of multiple Jawahar Navodaya Vidyalayas (JNV) buildings in Assam, Meghalaya and Tripura.

  • GMR Airports Infrastructure rises more than 3% in trade today. Reports suggest that 2.9 crore shares (0.5% equity), amounting to Rs 243.5 crore, change hands in a block deal.

  • Aptus Value Housing Finance, Timken India, RBL Bank, and Granules India witness an increase in mutual fund holdings in the past month.

  • NHPC rises to an all-time high of Rs 69.8 as it signs an MoU with Gujarat Power Corporation for a Rs 4,500 crore. It involves the construction of Kuppa Pumped Storage. The company appears in a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

  • United Spirits files a writ petition in the Bombay High Court against a Rs 365 crore claim from the Canteen Stores Department, Ministry of Defence. The claim is related to a previously concluded settlement, where the company asserts that all recovery claims by the customer were fully settled.

  • KR Choksey initiates coverage on Jio Financial Services with a ‘Buy’ rating and target price of Rs 290. The brokerage notes the company's benefits from the extensive customer bases of Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail. It expects the company to achieve an AUM of Rs 46 billion in FY24, driven by an improved product pipeline that aligns with consumer needs.

  • Balaji Amines surges more than 3% as the government of Maharashtra approves conferring the 'Mega Project' status to the company's expansion project for manufacturing speciality chemicals. Under the 'Mega Project' status of the package scheme of incentives, the company will receive an investment of Rs 750 crore.

  • FMCG stocks like Tata Consumer Products, Emami, Varun Beveragesand Dabur Indiarise more than 2% in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty FMCGindex are also trading in the green, helping it to touch its all-time high of Rs 57,865.3.

  • Oil And Natural Gas Corprises to a 5-year high of Rs 214.3 as it reportedly wins seven out of the ten oil and gas exploration areas.

  • The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) upgrades Macrotech Developers, Polycab India, REC, and Union Bank of India, among others, to the largecap category. Kalyan Jewellers, SJVN, and Suzlon Energy, among others, have been moved to the midcap category. The updated market categorisation list for H1CY24 will be effective from February to July.

  • Central Bank of Indiais rising as its total deposits grow by 9.5% YoY to Rs 3.4 lakh crore in Q3FY24. Gross advances improve by 14.9% YoY to Rs 2.1 lakh crore in the same period. The bank appears in a screenerof stocks with improving return on equity (RoE) over the past two years.

  • Macrotech Developers surges more than 6% as it executes a share purchase agreement (SPA) to acquire a 100% stake in Goel Ganga Ventures for Rs 1 lakh.

  • Bajaj Finance rises by 4% as its AUM crosses Rs 3 lakh crore for the first time, posting a 35% YoY increase. Total loans booked also improve by 26% YoY to 9.8 million in the December quarter.

  • Anuj Kathuria, President (India) of JK Tyre & Industries, says the company is expanding faster than the overall industry. He adds that H2FY24 will be in line with projections, expecting high single-digit growth. Kathuria also expects margins to be around 15% going forward.

  • Ujjivan Small Finance Bankrises with a 29% YoY increase in deposits to Rs 29,869 crore in Q3FY24. The bank's disbursements improve by 17% YoY. It appears in a screenerof stocks nearing their 52-week high with significant volumes.

  • Realty stocks like Sobha, Godrej Properties, Macrotech Developers and DLF surge more than 5% in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty Realty index are also trading in the green, helping it to reach its all-time high of Rs 832.7.

  • Angel One surges over 6% to an all-time high of Rs 3,750 as its average daily turnover (ADTO) grows by 156.2% YoY to Rs 42 lakh crore in December 2023. Its client base also improves by 55.5% YoY to 1.9 crore, with total order numbers rising by 59.2% YoY in the same month. The company appears in a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

  • Antony Cherukara, the CEO of VST Tillers Tractors, says sales in December have been lower than expected. He adds that the company’s exports have improved, compared to the industry's overall decline. Cherukara highlights a delay in launching VST's new brand Zector, and sets a sales guidance of 1,000 units for the first 12 months post its launch.

  • Bandhan Bank's loans and advances rise 18.6% YoY to Rs 1,15,964 crore in Q3FY24. Its total deposits also increase by 14.8% YoY to Rs 1,17,422. The bank's CASA ratio stands at 36.1%.

  • Dolly Khanna buys a 0.2% stake in Prakash Industries in Q3FY24. She now holds a 1.2% stake in the company.

  • Torrent Power surges 6% as it signs an MoU worth Rs 47,350 crore with the Department of Energy & Petrochemicals, Gujarat. The MoU, part of Gujarat government's investment promotion initiative, covers 3,450 MW of solar power, 1,045 MW of hybrid power, infrastructure for 7,000 MW of solar projects, and capex for its distribution network.

  • Power Finance Corp rises as it signs a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Gujarat government for projects worth Rs 25,000 crore. The company appears in a screener of stocks with improving quarterly revenue.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Macrotech Developers Ltd. (1,097.10, 9.27%), Godrej Properties Ltd. (2,216.15, 7.98%) and Torrent Power Ltd. (1,014.60, 7.44%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Mankind Pharma Ltd. (2,074.05, -3.78%), Gland Pharma Ltd. (1,975.30, -2.75%) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (452.65, -1.82%).

Volume Rockets

34 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Sobha Ltd. (1,295.25, 15.70%), Century Textiles & Industries Ltd. (1,398.25, 12.21%) and DCM Shriram Ltd. (1,141.45, 9.93%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Navin Fluorine International Ltd. (3,796.20, -1.85%) and Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd. (386.65, -0.01%).

Torrent Power Ltd. (1,014.60, 7.44%) was trading at 17.8 times of weekly average. Brigade Enterprises Ltd. (922.90, 6.16%) and MMTC Ltd. (64.70, 8.56%) were trading with volumes 13.0 and 10.2 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

89 stocks took off, crossing 52 week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Ajanta Pharma Ltd. (2,289.50, 2.54%), Ambuja Cements Ltd. (549.45, 2.49%) and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. (5,762.20, -0.11%).

13 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Borosil Renewables Ltd. (485.90, 4.27%) and Delhivery Ltd. (404.00, 1.76%). 4 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Vedant Fashions Ltd. (1,238.65, -1.73%) and APL Apollo Tubes Ltd. (1,450.85, -1.31%).

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
04 Jan 2024

Markets are trading high. Nifty 50 was trading at 21659.65 (142.3, 0.7%) , BSE Sensex was trading at 71867.31 (510.7, 0.7%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 19526.35 (0.82%).

Market breadth is surging up. Of the 2025 stocks traded today, 1419 were on the uptrend, and 582 went down.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Torrent Power Ltd. (1026.90, 8.75%), Godrej Properties Ltd. (2219.55, 8.15%) and Macrotech Developers Ltd. (1067.70, 6.34%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Mankind Pharma Ltd. (2090.00, -3.04%), Vedant Fashions Ltd. (1236.50, -1.90%) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (453.20, -1.70%).

Volume Rockets

15 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Sobha Ltd. (1271.00, 13.53%), Torrent Power Ltd. (1026.90, 8.75%) and Godrej Properties Ltd. (2219.55, 8.15%).

Brigade Enterprises Ltd. (918.60, 5.67%) was trading at 11.0 times of weekly average. Amber Enterprises India Ltd. (3192.00, 2.57%) and MMTC Ltd. (64.25, 7.80%) were trading with volumes 6.2 and 6.2 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

71 stocks took off, crossing 52 week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Ajanta Pharma Ltd. (2319.55, 3.88%), Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. (5766.85, -0.03%) and Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. (1118.50, 2.49%).

13 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Borosil Renewables Ltd. (484.05, 3.87%) and Delhivery Ltd. (402.60, 1.41%). 4 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Vedant Fashions Ltd. (1236.50, -1.90%) and APL Apollo Tubes Ltd. (1449.10, -1.43%).

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
03 Jan 2024
Market closes lower, Shyam Metalics and Energy opens its QIP for raising Rs 3,600 crore
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 21,517.35 (-148.5, -0.7%), BSE Sensex closed at 71,356.60 (-535.9, -0.8%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 19,367.15 (-51.3, -0.3%), of the 2,036 stocks traded today, 1,104 showed gains, and 898 showed losses.

Indian indices extended their losses from the afternoon session and closed in the red, with the benchmark Nifty 50 index closing at 21,517.4 points. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, fell 3.3% and closed at 14.1 points. Rail Vikas Nigam closed in the green after it signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with REC to finance projects undertaken by the construction & engineering company.

Nifty Smallcap 100 closed flat while the Nifty Midcap 100 closed higher, despite the benchmark index closing in the red. Nifty Media and Nifty Pharma closed higher than their Tuesday close. According to Trendlyne's sector dashboard, Utilities was the top-performing sector of the day as it rose 2.4%.

Major Asian indices closed in the red, except for China’s Shanghai Composite index, which closed marginally higher. Most European indices traded lower amid weak global cues. US index futures traded in the red, indicating a negative start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures traded lower for a fifth consecutive trading session.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that stocks like Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Tata Consumer Products, Godrej Industries and MRF are in the overbought zone.

  • Strides Pharma Science rises 1.5% in trade and reaches a new 52-week high of Rs 696.3. The company ranks medium on Trendlyne’s Checklist, scoring 36.4%. It also features in a screener of companies with strong momentum.

  • Rail Tel Corporation hits a new 52-week high of Rs 364.9 after bagging an order worth Rs 35 crore from Rail Vidyut Nigam. The contract includes providing application support and data center hosting services.

  • Grasim Industries is falling as its joint venture (JV), AV Terrace Bay, in which it holds a 40% stake, pauses its pulp operations. The company says that the pulp mill will be put under a warm idle for an easy future restart. The mill produces 3.2 lakh air-dry metric tonnes of northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) paper-grade pulp.

  • Bajaj Auto rises to an all-time high of Rs 7,059.8 as its board will consider a share buy-back on January 8. The company appears in a screener of stocks with improving book value per share

  • Amrit Lal Meena, Secretary of the Ministry of Coal, reports a 23% YoY increase in India’s coal stock, reaching 94 MT in December. He highlights that Coal India has achieved 84% of its capex target by December. He also affirms that there will be sufficient supply of coal for the coming summer season.

  • Adani Total Gas signs an MoU with Shigan Quantum Technologies to decarbonize the supply chain and modify ICE engines to run on cleaner fuels like CNG.

  • ONGC rises amid reports that its subsidiary, ONGC Videsh, is in talks with Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) to recover $600 million (approx. Rs 4,995.7 crore) in accrued dividends. This move comes after the easing of trade sanctions on Venezuela by the USA.

  • Rail Vikas Nigam surges more than 4% as it signs a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with REC to finance projects undertaken by the construction & engineering company. As per the MoU, REC will receive a part of the revenue/returns earned by RVNL for providing the finances.

  • Samvardhana Motherson International is falling as reports suggest that 63.5 lakh shares (0.1% equity), amounting to approximately Rs 39 crore, change hands.

  • PSU bank stocks like Bank of Maharashtra, Canara Bank, UCO Bankand Central Bankof India rise more than 2% in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty PSU Bankindex are also trading in the green.

  • Glenmark Pharmaceuticals is rising as it launches Lirafit, the first bio-similar of the anti-diabetes drug Liraglutide. Priced at Rs 100 for a 1.2 mg dose, the drug improves glycemic control in type 2 diabetes patients with comorbidities like cardiovascular diseases.

  • Citi Research maintains a 'sell' rating on Avenue Supermarts with a target price of Rs 3,100. This implies a downside of 21.6% from its current market price. The brokerage points to a weakness in the company's third-quarter earnings due to revenue impacts from an inferior product mix and the addition of new stores in smaller towns.

  • SBI Securities predicts the Nifty 50 to reach around 23,500-24,300 in 2024. The brokerage has a positive outlook on Nifty IT, Metal and Pharma indices, as well as chemical, realty, railways, and PSU stocks.

  • GAIL (India) and TruAlt Bioenergy form a joint venture (JV) with 49% and 51% stakes, respectively. The JV will set up CBG plants worth over $72 million, funded through a combination of debt and equity.

  • Maruti Suzuki India declines as its total passenger vehicle wholesales in December decline by 3.7% YoY to 1,19,518 units. However, its total export sales rise by 23.3% YoY to 26,884 units over the same period.

  • SBI raises a $1 billion (approximately Rs 8,333 crores) syndicated loan, underwritten by HSBC Bank, with tenures of five and three years. The loan proceeds are earmarked for supporting long-term loan growth for liability management.

  • India’s manufacturing PMI falls to an 18-month low of 54.9 in December from 56 in November due to a softer increase in new orders and output. The PMI reading remains above 50 for the 30th consecutive month.

  • Tech stocks like MphasiS, Coforge, LTIMindtreeand Wiprofall more than 2% in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty ITindex are also trading in the red, leading it to plunge more than 2%.

  • Sun Pharmaceuticals hits a 10-year high of Rs 1,304.6 after it acquires 100% ownership in Israel-based Libra Merger to consolidate business in Israel.

  • Bank of Maharashtra rises following its Q3FY24 business update. Its total deposits improve 17.9% YoY to Rs 2,45,738 crore, while gross advances increase 20.3% YoY to Rs 1,88,796 crore.

  • Suvankar Sen, MD and CEO of Senco Gold, reports a 20-25% revenue growth in Q3FY24 and maintains an 18-20% revenue growth guidance for FY24. He expects rising gold prices to impact demand. Sen adds that the company’s margins will improve in H2 and outlines plans to open 18-20 stores.

  • Gensol Engineering is rising as it bags an order worth Rs 138.7 crore from Sarda Energy & Minerals to establish a 33 MW solar power project. The project, which will be located in Chhattisgarh, aims to power Sarda Energy & Minerals' Khalora plant and is expected to be completed in the next six months.

  • Radhakishan Damani buys a 1.4% stake in VST Industries for approx Rs 75.6 crore in a bulk deal on Tuesday.

  • Adani Group stocks like Adani Enterprises, Adani Energy Solutions, Adani Total Gas and Adani Green Energy surges following reports that the Supreme Court will pronounce its judgement in the Adani Group-Hindenburg case on Wednesday.

  • Shyam Metalics and Energy rises as it opens a qualified institutional placement to raise Rs 3,600 crore. The company has set a floor price of Rs 597.6, indicating a discount of 7.1% to its current market price.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. (1,183.20, 11.37%), Adani Total Gas Ltd. (1,099.30, 9.83%) and Biocon Ltd. (282.35, 6.07%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Avenue Supermarts Ltd. (3,932.35, -4.17%), 3M India Ltd. (34,236.75, -3.92%) and Hindalco Industries Ltd. (593.05, -3.88%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

32 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Ltd. (387.25, 14.44%), Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. (1,183.20, 11.37%) and Sobha Ltd. (1119.50, 10.78%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Kaynes Technology India Ltd. (2,555.95, -4.03%), VST Industries Ltd. (4,034.60, -0.63%) and Mahindra Lifespace Developers Ltd. (546.15, -0.10%).

FDC Ltd. (411.70, 3.29%) was trading at 34.7 times of weekly average. Vaibhav Global Ltd. (432.20, 6.23%) and Adani Wilmar Ltd. (380.95, 3.91%) were trading with volumes 27.0 and 9.1 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

58 stocks hit their 52 week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd. (1,094.25, 1.47%), Ajanta Pharma Ltd. (2,220.25, 1.39%) and Ambuja Cements Ltd. (536.10, 0.98%).

10 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Borosil Renewables Ltd. (466.00, 7.97%) and Adani Wilmar Ltd. (380.95, 3.91%). 5 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including GMM Pfaudler Ltd. (1557.55, -2.43%) and Data Patterns (India) Ltd. (1,855.95, -2.26%).

 
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The Baseline
02 Jan 2024
5 stocks to buy from analysts this week
By Satyam Kumar

1. Amber Enterprises India:

Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this consumer electronics manufacturer with a target price of Rs 3,700, indicating an upside of 19.1%. Analyst Akshay Mokashe says, “The company reported robust growth outlook across all segments, resulting in strong earnings visibility from FY23 to FY26.” He notes rising contribution from the railway and mobility (R&M) division, which yields higher operating margins, and expects it to help improve operating profits in the coming quarters. 

Revenue from Amber Enterprises’ electronics division grew at a 48% CAGR over H1FY21-H1FY24. Mokashe believes this was backed by its strategic JV with NOISE, which helped the company expand its market reach in the wearables segment and other smart electronics categories. He remains optimistic about the company on the back of a robust order book in the R&M division, increasing value-added products, and improving operating leverage, which he expects to drive higher ROE, ROCE and operating margins by FY26. He projects a revenue and PAT CAGR of 15% and 34%, respectively, over FY24-26.

2. Siemens:

BOB Capital Markets maintains its 'Buy' rating on this heavy electrical equipment company with a target price of Rs 4,600, indicating an upside of 13.8%. Analysts Vinod Chari, Arshia Khosla, and Swati Jhunjhunwala are optimistic as the company's order backlog increased by 165% YoY to Rs 45,520 crore at the end of Q2FY24. They expect Siemens to benefit from a Rs 26,310 crore order for 1,200 electric locomotives from the Indian Railways.

Chari, Khosla, and Jhunjhunwala forecast a surge in incoming orders/tenders from private companies, as the capacity utilization in the private sector has reached 75% (the point at which companies make new capex plans). They note that margins have expanded across segments as Siemens was able to negotiate better prices, except in the mobility segment due to factory ramp-up costs and R&D expenses for the new rail order. The analysts are also closely monitoring the demerger of its energy business, which is expected by 2025. They believe that Siemens, with its strong order book and diverse customer base, is well-positioned to sustain different capex cycles.

3. Coal India:

Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this coal company with a target price of Rs 430. This indicates an upside of 9.5%.  According to analysts Alok Deora and Parthiv Jhonsa, Coal India has made a long-term commitment through FSA agreements to meet the increasing demand in the power sector amid government push for reliable 24x7 electricity supply.” They say that the company aims to increase production to 780 mt in FY24 and 850 mt in FY25. 

They also note that the revival in demand and rise in international prices have led to e-auction premiums of 80-100% over the past few months. 

Deora and Jhonsa say that Coal India has intensified its focus on capex to improve its evacuation infrastructure. Its capex has tripled from FY20 to Rs 18,600 crore in FY23, and analysts expect it to surpass the budgeted target for FY24. They conclude, “Considering the limitations of renewable energy, the dependence on thermal power plants is expected to grow in the coming years. This will likely increase the demand for thermal coal from Coal India.”

4. Bata India:

Geojit Financial Services maintains its 'Buy' rating on this footwear company with a target price of Rs 1,870, indicating an upside of 17.1%. Analyst Vincent Andrews holds a positive outlook due to margin improvements backed by growth in the premium segment and an asset-light expansion model. 

In Q2FY24, the company’s revenue had declined by 1.3% YoY to Rs 834.6 crore, driven by a shift in festive season buying, weaker demand in the mass category due to inflationary pressure, and increased GST rates.

With the premium segment growing at 1.5 times the overall rate, Andrews forecasts an improvement in gross margins. He believes that the recent licensing and manufacturing agreement with the globally renowned fashion brand Nine West will contribute to Bata’s top line, leveraging the company's strong brand recall and reach.  

Bata India added 28 stores in Q2FY24, taking the total to 476. It aims to reach 500 franchise stores by 2024. Andrews believes that the company's asset-light, franchise-based expansion model will help in controlling fixed costs and contribute to a gradual improvement in margins. As of December 2023, Bata India has 2,150 stores in 725 cities.

5. Saregama India:

ICICI Direct assigns a ‘Buy’ rating on this movies and entertainment company with a target price of Rs 445. This implies a 19.2% upside. Analyst Bhupendra Tiwary believes its “B2B licensing revenue will grow at 24% CAGR over FY23-25 to Rs 692 crore, supported by monetization of existing music copyrights and new music acquisitions”. 

Tiwary believes that growth in licensing revenue will be further aided by the transition into a subscription model, which could increase revenue by 150% to 300% as the industry moves towards a paid subscription model. According to the management, increasing their share of new content across regional languages and acquiring minority stakes in regional music companies will raise licensing revenue by 22%-25% in FY24.

Recently, the company acquired Pocket Aces, a digital entertainment firm with access to more than nine crore digital followers. Analysts expect revenues from TV, films, and events to grow at a 33% CAGR between FY23 and FY25, thanks to Pocket Aces’ digital presence and distribution strength. The management also expects the combined revenues to grow at 27% in the medium term.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
02 Jan 2024
Market closes lower, Coal India's monthly coal production rises by 8.2% YoY in December
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50closed at 21,665.80 (-76.1, -0.4%), BSE Sensexclosed at 71,892.48 (-379.5, -0.5%) while the broader Nifty 500closed at 19,418.40 (-51.1, -0.3%). Market breadth is in the red. Of the 2,034 stocks traded today, 938 were gainers and 1,061 were losers.

Indian indices maintained their losses from the afternoon session and closed in the red, with the benchmark Nifty 50closing at 21,666 points. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, dropped 0.7% and closed at 14.6 points. TVS Motor reported a 25% YoY increase in December wholesales to 3 lakh units, driven by strong domestic demand. Its domestic sales were up 33% YoY.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the red following the benchmark index. Nifty Pharma and Nifty Healthcare closed higher than their Monday’s close. According to Trendlyne's sector dashboard, pharmaceuticals & biotechnology was the top-performing sector of the day as it rose 2.7%. 

Major European indices traded in the green except for England’s FTSE 100 trading lower. US index futures traded flat, indicating a cautious start to the trading session. The data released by Hamburg Commercial Bank indicated that the Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI for December contracted to 44.4 against estimates of 44.2.

  • Bata India sees a short buildup in its January 25 future series as its open interest rises 21.2% with a put-call ratio of 0.4.

  • Glenmark Life Sciences rises 8.8% in trade and reaches a new 52-week high of Rs 720. The company ranks high on Trendlyne’s Checklist, scoring 60.9%. It also features in a screener of companies with no debt.

  • Vodafone Idea falls by over 5% following its clarification on recent media reports predicting a possible tie-up with American company StarLink. The company has denied any such discussions with StarLink.

  • Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone rises as its monthly cargo volumes grow by 42% YoY to 35.6 million metric tonnes. The company appears in a screener of stocks with improving cash flow from operations.

  • Nuvama Institutional Equities predicts that the FMCG industry will wee muted rural demand in Q3 and Q4FY24, resulting in lower volume growth. However, the brokerage expects United Breweries and Nestle India to see healthy growth in sales and volume. It also forecasts a likely improvement in the industry in FY25, led by the general elections and a fall in inflation.

  • Private bank stocks like Kotak Mahindra Bank, Federal Bank, IDFC First Bank and ICICI Bank are falling in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty Private Bank index are also trading in the red.

  • Zomatorises as it reportedly hikes its mandatory platform fee to Rs 4 from Rs 3, effective from January 1. This hike applies only to its key markets, that is 33% of the cities where it operates.

  • Pharmaceuticals stocks like Lupin, GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals, Glenmark Pharmaceuticalsand Gland Pharmaare rising in trade. The broader sectoral index, Nifty Pharma, is also trading in the green.

  • KV Pradeep, Chairman & MD of Olectra Greentech, says the company expects to supply around 800 buses in FY24, down from the earlier guidance of over 1,000. He highlights that the current order book has over 9000 orders. Pradeep adds that the company's capacity is set to increase to 10,000 units by mid-2024.

  • Tata Motorstouches a 52-week high of Rs 804 as its Q3FY24 passenger vehicle wholesales increase by 5% YoY to 1,38,455 units and total domestic wholesales rise by 3% YoY to 2,34,981 units. Its commercial vehicle wholesales also marginally improve by 1% YoY to 96,526 units over the same period.

  • TVS Motor'sDecember wholesales rise by 25% YoY to 3 lakh units, driven by strong domestic demand. Its two-wheeler sales improve by 27% YoY, with domestic sales up 33%. The company appears in a screenerfor stocks with improving cash flows and high durability scores.

  • Coal Indiarises to an all-time high of Rs 394.6 as its monthly coal production rises by 8.2% YoY to 71.9 million metric tonnes. The company appears in a screenerof stocks with improving annual net profits for the past two years.

  • Shashank Srivastava, Senior Executive Officer (Marketing & Sales) at Maruti Suzuki India, reports a sharp drop in the PV industry's inventory level in December, falling below 45,000 units. He forecasts single-digit growth for the industry in 2024 and adds that retail sales are returning to around 1.35-1.4 lakh units.

  • NMDC hits a 52-week high of Rs 219.15 after increasing the prices of lump ore by Rs 400 to Rs 5,600 per tonne and fines by Rs 250 to Rs 4,910 per tonne.

  • Motilal Oswal Financial Services maintains its 'Buy' rating on Dalmia Bharatwith a target price of Rs 2,800 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 21.6%. The brokerage cites the company's capacity expansion plans to 110-130 MTPA by 2031 and green energy initiatives as key growth drivers. It expects the company's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 8.1% over FY23-26.

  • RPP Infra Projects rises to an all-time high of Rs 128 as it bags an order worth Rs 183.6 crore from the Public Works Department of Chennai. The order involves constructing stormwater drains in Kovalam, Chennai. The company appears in a screener of stocks with strong momentum.

  • Jefferies has a 'Buy' rating on Coal India, Tata Steel and Hindalco Industries, and a 'Hold' rating on JSW Steel. The brokerage is cautiously optimistic about the metals sector in 2024, expecting an improvement in macro conditions. It sees a volume CAGR of 6-15% for Coal India, Tata Steel, and JSW Steel in FY24-26.

  • Power Grid Corp of Indiaappoints Shri Ravindra Kumar Tyagi as its new Chairman and Managing Director, effective from January 1, 2024.

  • Auto stocks like Eicher Motors, Ashok Leyland, TVS Motor and Mahindra & Mahindra plunge more than 2% in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty Auto index are also trading in the red.

  • Godrej Properties is rising as it purchases a 4-acre land parcel near Bengaluru to develop a premium residential project with a revenue potential of Rs 1,000 crore.

  • The Centre raises the windfall tax on locally produced crude oil to Rs 2,300 per tonne from Rs 1,300 earlier. However, it slashes the export tax on diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) to ‘Nil’ from Rs 0.5 per litre and Rs 1 per litre, respectively.

  • Ashok Leyland's total wholesales for December 2023 fall 10% YoY to 16,324 units. Its medium and heavy commercial vehicles' wholesales fall 11% YoY, while light commercial vehicles' wholesales drop 9% YoY.

  • Gensol Engineering is rising as its board of directors approves an increase in the authorised share capital to Rs 50 crore from Rs 40 crore by issuing 1 crore equity shares at Rs 10 each. The board has also sanctioned the issue of equity shares worth Rs 300 crore through a public issue, preferential allotment and qualified institutional placement (QIP).

  • Hindustan Unileverfalls as it receives a GST demand notice for Rs 450 crore from five states: Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Assam and Haryana. The company appears in a screenerof stocks with declining quarterly net profits and margins.

  • Eicher Motorsis falling as its monthly wholesales decrease by 7% YoY to 63,387 units due to reduced sales of two-wheelers with engine capacity up to 350cc. Its exports have also fallen by 29% YoY over the same period.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Mankind Pharma Ltd. (2,107.20, 6.47%), Lupin Ltd. (1,394.35, 6.21%) and GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (2.049.00, 4.99%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Vodafone Idea Ltd. (16.05, -5.59%), Eicher Motors Ltd. (3,892.50, -3.61%) and Macrotech Developers Ltd. (1,014.50, -3.60%).

Movers and Shakers

25 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Alok Industries Ltd. (25.80, 20.00%), VST Industries Ltd. (4,060.10, 20.00%) and Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Ltd. (338.40, 10.05%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were G R Infraprojects Ltd. (1,110.60, -2.00%), La Opala RG Ltd. (361.00, -1.85%) and Kajaria Ceramics Ltd. (1,298.45, -0.77%).

Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (792.45, 3.47%) was trading at 32.9 times of weekly average. Lemon Tree Hotels Ltd. (129.85, 9.39%) and Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd. (242.35, 7.31%) were trading with volumes 26.1 and 14.0 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

63 stocks hit their 52 week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Ajanta Pharma Ltd. (2,190.00, 1.41%), Amara Raja Energy & Mobility Ltd. (815.50, -1.16%) and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. (5,746.35, -0.06%).

5 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Data Patterns (India) Ltd. (1,898.80, 3.15%) and Sumitomo Chemical India Ltd. (414.35, 1.02%). 7 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd. (405.10, -2.27%) and KRBL Ltd. (372.45, -1.14%).

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
01 Jan 2024
Market closes flat on first trading day of the new year

Nifty 50 closed at 21741.90 (10.5, 0.1%) , BSE Sensex closed at 72271.94 (31.7, 0.0%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 19469.50 (40.4, 0.2%)

Market breadth is in the green. Of the 2053 stocks traded today, 1322 showed gains, and 684 showed losses.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Vodafone Idea Ltd. (17.00, 6.25%), YES Bank Ltd. (22.65, 5.59%) and LIC Housing Finance Ltd. (563.05, 5.03%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company Ltd. (1225.35, -2.73%), Eicher Motors Ltd. (4038.35, -2.54%) and Bharti Airtel Ltd. (1013.05, -1.86%).

Movers and Shakers

15 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Gujarat State Fertilizer & Chemicals Ltd. (273.75, 13.40%), JBM Auto Ltd. (1619.35, 10.60%) and Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Ltd. (307.50, 7.22%).

Top high volume loser on BSE was Data Patterns (India) Ltd. (1840.90, -1.09%).

Century Textiles & Industries Ltd. (1280.00, 4.70%) was trading at 6.2 times of weekly average. Route Mobile Ltd. (1668.75, 4.39%) and Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd. (793.95, 5.47%) were trading with volumes 5.8 and 5.7 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

79 stocks hit their 52 week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Ajanta Pharma Ltd. (2136.00, 2.51%), Ambuja Cements Ltd. (534.30, 2.57%) and Bank of Baroda (233.75, 1.15%).

10 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Gujarat Gas Ltd. (484.00, 4.88%) and Aavas Financiers Ltd. (1561.20, 1.89%). 4 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Delhivery Ltd. (384.35, -1.26%) and Data Patterns (India) Ltd. (1840.90, -1.09%).

 
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The Baseline
30 Dec 2023
Global indices beat expectations in 2023 | Screener: Outperformers with rising FII holdings
By Shreesh Biradar

We started the year fearful and anxious. Goldman Sachs’ strategy group sent out a warning to its clients, regarding the economic outlook:  “Caution: Heavy Fog.” January 2023 began ominously, with rising energy prices, high inflation, a global growth slowdown, a war of words between US and China, and recession fears.

Luckily for us, the pessimists lost this round.

We end the year with two ongoing wars, Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza. But despite this, the fears of 2023 turned out to be more manageable than expected. Volatility fell, and most major global indices delivered high returns over the year. Japan's Nikkei 225 hit a 33-year high, and the US' S&P 500 is just 1% shy of its all-time high of 4,796 points. Even the broader MSCI World Index has given 21% returns year to date.   

The Indian stock market has mirrored this global trend, with the benchmark Nifty 50 delivering around 20% returns over the year and reaching an all-time high of 21,779.

In this week’s Analyticks:

  • Global indices soar: Major markets make big gains in 2023
  • Screener: Stocks outperforming Nifty 50, with rising FII holdings and strong financials 

Let’s get into it.

Inflation soared, but markets made a big comeback

Inflation peaked at the start of 2023, and central banks scrambled to pin it down with interest rate hikes. The US started the year with an inflation rate of  6.4%, way over the Federal Reserve's target of below 2%. Despite the Fed raising interest rates to a 22-year high, US inflation was stubborn for most of the year, thanks to rising energy prices and a hot job market.

The Fed's rate hikes claimed victims early in 2023 –  regional banks like Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank toppled. Higher rates also resulted in ballooning debt for economies like Argentina, leading to the Argentinian peso’s collapse againstthe US dollar and  hyperinflation, with 161% inflation in November 2023.

Inflation in Argentina rose so fast that restaurant menus and shops used peel-off stickers for prices, since they went up every week.

China was an inflation outlier. Its economy failed to take off post-COVID, resulting in low demand and inflation. China’s inflation even hit the negative zone at -0.5% in November, a deviation from its historical range of  1.5% to 2.5%.

India has been trying to balance its interest rate and inflation. While RBI kept inflation in the targeted range of 4%-6%, it held the interest rate at 6.5%. The RBI has made a hike of just 250 bps since April 2023, compared to a 450 bps increase in the US.

Most of the gains for major indices came in the last quarter of 2023, as inflation tapered down and global central banks finally signaled a pause in rate hikes.

AI gives US indices a boost, while China struggles

The West is in the throes of a new Cold War. The trade war between the US, Europe and China - on everything from chips to cars - has escalated in 2023. The US imposed sanctions on chip exports to China. China retaliated by limiting exports of rare earth materials needed for chip manufacturing. This led to chip shortages and cost increases that affected industries from automobiles to televisions.

Rising chip demand and advances in AI were a boost to American semiconductor/chip companies and AI players, whose stocks (NVidia, Intel, Microsoft, Google) saw huge gains. The Nasdaq 100 delivered 54.3% returns YTD as momentum built around AI. Among the largest markets, the S&P 500 index was the outperformer.

S&P 500 delivered the highest returns in 2023 in USD

China is a different story. There are so many empty houses in China right now that these can accomodate 3 billion people. The country's real estate meltdown, as major companies defaulted on their debt, has spooked investors. The trade war and sanctions also hurt China a lot more than the US.

Anyone trying to predict oil prices in 2023 got their fingers burned. The OPEC cartel tried to keep prices high but failed, as Russia undercut their prices and US ramped up oil exports. Oil briefly traded above $85 per barrel when Hamas attacked Israel. But for most of the year oil prices stayed below that level, despite OPEC+ production cuts.

Lower oil prices limited the Middle East’s revenue. Consequently, the benchmark indices of UAE (ADX General) and Kuwait (BK Main 50) fell 6.8% and 5.2% YTD, respectively.  

UK FTSE delivered the highest returns across major indices

India comes out on top 

2023 was the year India put a rover on the moon, hosted the G20, and Modi's hugs got international coverage. We were very visible on the global stage, and the Indian economy had a lot of good news as well. The country recorded one of the highest GDP growth rates for the year (7.6% in the first half of 2023). The realty and automobile sectors in India saw the biggest gains in 2023.

India is the fastest-growing economy among large countries

While China struggled with a real estate crisis, the Indian realty sector boomed. The housing sales value in the top seven metros for the first nine months of 2023 exceeded 2022’s total. Nifty Realty was the biggest gainer of the year with 78% YTD returns.

India’s robust GDP growth has been driven by rising domestic consumption. The country recorded its highest-ever automobile sales in November, surpassing Japan and becoming the third-largest market after the US and China. The Nifty Auto index also saw an increase of 42% YTD.

IT stocks focused on services were badly hit due to global reductions in IT spending by major financial institutions. However, new geos and sectors have helped bridge this gap, leading to Nifty IT delivering  25% returns. 

India also benefited from an FII inflow of Rs 146,721.1 crore into the Indian equity market. This has positioned the Nifty50 among the top 10 best-performing indices among major economies. 

2024 looks more promising at the start, compared to 2023. Let's hope the optimists keep winning.

Screener: Stocks outperforming Nifty 50 with increased FII holdings and strong financials

HDFC Bank has the highest FII change

This screener consists of stocks outperforming both their respective industries and the Nifty 50 index, with increased Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) holdings in the past quarter and strong financial performance.

The stocks are from industries like banks, electric utilities, housing finance, electrical equipment, IT consulting & software, department stores and cement & cement products. Major stocks in the screener are HDFC Bank, Adani Power, LIC Housing Finance, KEI Industries, Sonata Software, Trent and Ultratech Cement. 

HDFC Bank tops the list of outperformers with the highest rise in FII holding, which increased by 18.8% QoQ to reach 52.1% in Q2FY24. The Government of Singapore and Invesco Developing Markets Fund have bought 2.3% and 1.2% stakes respectively. The company’s stock price has risen by 11.2% over the past month.

You can find more screeners here.