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Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
17 May 2024
Market closes higher, Endurance Technologies' Q4 net profit rises 54% YoY to Rs 210.2 crore
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 22,466.10 (62.3, 0.3%), BSE Sensex closed at 73,917.03 (253.3, 0.3%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 21,064.55 (135.5, 0.7%). Of the 2,139 stocks traded today, 1,358 were gainers and 735 were losers.

Indian indices maintained the gains from the afternoon session and closed in the green. The volatility index, Nifty VIX, dropped by 1% and closed at 19.8 points. Endurance Technologies Q4FY24 net profit rose 54% YoY to Rs 210.2 crore, beating Forecaster estimates by 20.8%. Revenue increased by 20.2% YoY during the quarter.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed higher following the benchmark index. Nifty Metal and Nifty Media closed higher than Thursday’s closing level. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, metal & mining emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of over 2.1%.

Most European indices trade in the red, except for Switzerland’s SMI index trading lower. US indices futures trade flat, indicating a cautious start. Eurozone’s CPI inflation for April remains unchanged at March levels of 2.4%.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like Schaeffler India, ABB India, Jupiter Wagons, and Honeywell Automation India are in the overbought zone.

  • GPT Infraprojects rises as its Q4FY24 net profit increases by 64.7% YoY to Rs 18.8 crore, while revenue grows by 12.9% YoY. Its EBITDA margin improves by 160 bps YoY to 12.4%. The company appears in a screener for stocks with a 20% growth in share price over the past month.

  • Endurance Technologies surges as its Q4FY24 net profit rises 54% YoY to Rs 210.2 crore, beating Forecaster estimates by 20.8%. Revenue grows 20.2% YoY during the quarter. The company features in a screener of companies with zero promoter pledge.

  • Axis Direct maintains a 'Hold' call on Colgate-Palmolive (India) with a target price of Rs 2,500. The brokerage is optimistic about the company's long-term strategy to drive revenue growth by launching new products, marketing, rural market penetration, etc. It estimates net profit and sales to grow at 12.7% and 10.3% CAGR, respectively over FY25-26.

  • Rajesh Jejurikar, Executive Director and CEO (Auto and Farm Sector) of Mahindra & Mahindra, projects a growth of 15-17% in the SUV portfolio for FY25 and expects electric SUVs to constitute 20-30% of the portfolio by 2027. He highlights the strong EBIT margin in their tractor business despite decline in volume.

  • IDBI Capital retains its 'Buy' call on NCC with a target price of Rs 300 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 8.2%. The brokerage is optimistic about the company's order inflow and mentions that the order book of Rs 57,500 crore continues to provide revenue visibility.

  • Go Digit General Insurance's Rs 2,614.7 crore IPO gets bids for 5.4X the available 5.3 crore shares on offer on the third day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 3.5X the available 92.1 lakh shares on offer.

  • Karur Vysya Bank receives the Reserve Bank of India's approval to appoint J Natarajan as the Executive Director.

  • The United Nations revises India’s GDP growth forecast for FY24 to 6.9% (from 6.2% earlier), and 6.6% in FY25. The organization sees economic growth driven by strong public investment and private consumption.

  • Info Edge (India) rises as it reports a net profit of Rs 60.4 crore in Q4FY24, compared to a loss of Rs 272.8 crore in Q4FY23. Its revenue jumps by 376.6% YoY. The company's revenue was lower in Q4FY23 due to market loss on investments included in other income. Info Edge appears in a screener for stocks with decreased shareholding by mutual funds.

  • Wonderla Holidays falls as its Q4FY24 net profit declines 35.5% YoY to Rs 22.6 crore due to a rise in input cost and employee benefit expenses. Revenue decreases by 6.9% YoY during the quarter. The company appears in a screener for stocks with low debt.

  • eClerx Services falls as its Q4FY24 net profit declines 1.5% YoY to Rs 130.5 crore, despite a 13.1% YoY rise in revenue. Profit falls due to higher employee benefit expenses. The company's board approves the proposal for a buyback of up to 13.8 lakh shares worth Rs 385 crore.

  • Indrajit Mookerjee, Executive Director and VC of Texmaco Rail, highlights the execution run-rate of 850 wagons per month, and says the company will maintain the same rate going forward. He says the updated orderbook stands at Rs 8,000 crore/ 14,600 wagons. Mookerjee expects revenue growth of around 50% in FY25.

  • Consumer durables stocks like Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, Dixon Technologies (India), Amber Enterprises India, and Cera Sanitaryware are rising in trade. The broader sectoral indices, BSE Consumer Durables and Nifty Consumer Durables are also trading in the green.

  • Cresta Fund sells a 0.6% stake (20 lakh shares) in Jindal Saw, for approximately Rs 108.3 crore in a block deal on Thursday. Meanwhile, Nippon India Small Cap Fund and Societe Generale pick up stakes in the company.

  • Sanghvi Movers' Q4FY24 net profit rises 40.7% YoY to Rs 47.7 crore, while revenue increases by 34.5% YoY. The company's board approves a stock split in the proportion of 1:2, implying 1 share will be sub-divided into 2 shares.

  • Transport Corp of India plans to acquire two cargo ships worth around $35-40 million in FY25, to boost its seaways business. The company is exploring shipbuilding options in China, Japan, and Korea and anticipates placing new orders by the second half of the year.

  • Larsen & Toubro's buildings and factories business vertical wins multiple orders worth Rs 1,000-2,500 crore. The orders include the construction of a Medical College and Hospital Campus in Kolkata, as well as add-on orders from some of its existing projects.

  • Glenmark Pharmaceuticals is rising as it receives final approval from the US FDA for Brimonidine Tartrate and Timolol Maleate Ophthalmic Solution. The ophthalmic solution, used in the treatment of increased eye pressure, has an estimated annual sales of $290 million in the US.

  • Mahindra & Mahindra hits an all-time high of Rs 2,554 as its Q4FY24 net profit rises 4.5% YoY, while revenue increases by 9% YoY. The company's board approves an investment of Rs 12,000 crore in its electric vehicles arm, Mahindra Electric Automobile, over the next three years.

  • Reports suggest that 83.7 lakh shares (around 1.9% stake) of PB Fintech change hands in two block deals. The company’s promoters are likely sellers in this transaction.

  • BEML surges as it wins an order worth Rs 250 crore from Northern Coal Fields for dump trucks.

  • Zydus Lifesciences' arm, Zydus Lifesciences Global FZE, inks an exclusive licensing and supply agreement with MSN Laboratories for manufacturing and supplying cabozantinib tablets in the US market. The tablet has an addressable market of $1,464 million in the US.

  • Vodafone Idea's Q4FY24 losses extend by 19.6% YoY to Rs 7,674.6 crore despite a marginal rise in revenue. The loss widens due to an increase in finance costs. The company appears in a screener for stocks with decreasing mutual funds holding.

  • Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals' Q4FY24 net profit rises 5.5% YoY to Rs 138.4 crore. Revenue increases by 9.4% YoY during the quarter, driven by the electric consumer durables segment. The company appears in a screener for stocks with rising net cash flow and cash from operating activity.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (2,287, 13.1%), Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd. (8,938.40, 8.2%) and Solar Industries India Ltd. (8,900, 7.2%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Honeywell Automation India Ltd. (5,2912, -5.1%), MphasiS Ltd. (2,311.60, -2.5%) and Voltas Ltd. (1,288.30, -2.5%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

36 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Kaynes Technology India Ltd. (3,080.35, 20.0%), Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Ltd. (391.90, 15.6%) and GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (2,287, 13.1%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were eClerx Services Ltd. (2,278.80, -5.1%), SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd. (1,434.20, -1.2%) and Motherson Sumi Wiring India Ltd. (68.65, -1.2%).

Affle (India) Ltd. (1175.25, 7.4%) was trading at 20.0 times of weekly average. Whirlpool of India Ltd. (1,559.55, 3.3%) and Prince Pipes & Fittings Ltd. (668.60, 1.3%) were trading with volumes 14.9 and 12.8 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

45 stocks took off, crossing 52-week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Ashok Leyland Ltd. (207.85, 0.6%), Astral Ltd. (2,303, 1.3%) and Bharat Electronics Ltd. (248.20, 4.3%).

19 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including JK Paper Ltd. (376.95, 7.7%) and Affle (India) Ltd. (1,175.25, 7.4%). 5 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Dabur India Ltd. (535.80, -1.2%) and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. (5,799.55, -0.9%).

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
16 May 2024
Market closes higher, GAIL (India)'s Q4FY24 net profit rises 260.1% YoY to Rs 2,177 crore
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 22,403.85 (203.3, 0.9%), BSE Sensex closed at 73,663.72 (676.7, 0.9%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 20,929.05 (187.2, 0.9%). Market breadth is in the green. Of the 2,137 stocks traded today, 1,171 showed gains, and 921 showed losses.

Indian indices gyrated between losses and gains throughout the day and closed in the green. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, fell 1.3% and closed at 20 points. Honeywell Automation India hit its all-time high and closed sharply higher after its net profit grew 32.2% YoY to Rs 148.2 crore in Q4FY24, due to lower employee benefits expenses. 

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green, taking cues from the benchmark index. Nifty FMCG and Nifty Realty closed higher than their Wednesday close. According to Trendlyne’s Sector dashboard, General Industrials emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 2.4%.

Major European indices traded flat or lower, despite the Asian indices closing in the green. US index futures traded flat or higher, indicating a positive start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures traded in the red after closing marginally higher on a volatile day on Wednesday.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that stocks like Timken India, Siemens, CG Power and Industrial Solutions and Cummins India are in the overbought zone.

  • GAIL (India)'s Q4FY24 net profit rises 260.1% YoY to Rs 2,177 crore despite a 2.7% YoY fall in revenue. Profit grows on the back of fall in input and inventory costs. The company appears in a screener for stocks with growth in net profit with increasing profit margin.

  • Varroc Engineering, Astral, Balkrishna Industries, and Poly Medicure rise by 9.2%, 8.8%, 4.9% and 3.2% respectively over the past week, ahead of their Q4FY24 results tomorrow.

  • PSU bank stocks like Canara Bank, Bank of India, State Bank of India, and Bank of Baroda are falling in trade. The broader sectoral index, Nifty PSU Bank, is also trading in the red.

  • Awfis Space Solutions sets the price band for its IPO at Rs 364-383 per share. The issue, valued at Rs 598.9 crore, consists of a fresh issue worth Rs 128 crore and an offer for sale of around Rs 470.9 crore. The issue opens for subscription on May 22.

  • Caplin Point Laboratories is rising as its net profit grows by 19.1% YoY to Rs 121.6 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue increases by 17.4% YoY to Rs 470.5 crore due to an improvement in the US and emerging markets. It shows up in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue for the past eight quarters.

  • Go Digit General Insurance's Rs 2,614.7 crore IPO gets bids for 0.5X the available 5.3 crore shares on offer on the second day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 2.2X the available 92.1 lakh shares on offer.

  • Texmaco Rail & Engineering rises sharply as its net profit surges 2.5x YoY to Rs 45.3 crore in Q4FY24, driven by lower finance costs. Revenue increases by 38% YoY to Rs 1,164.1 crore, owing to improvements in the freight car and electrical infrastructure segments. It features in a screener of stocks with rising return on equity (RoE) for the past two years.

  • India’s merchandise trade deficit widens to $19.1 billion in April, compared to $15.6 billion in March. Merchandise exports stood at around $35 billion in April, while imports were at $54.1 billion.

  • Reliance Industries' arm, REC Solar Holdings AS, sells its 100% stake in REC Solar Norway AS to Elkem ASA for around $22 million.

  • KR Choksey retains its 'Buy' call on State Bank of India with an upgraded target price of Rs 975 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 20.6%. The brokerage believes that the bank is well-positioned for future growth due to its strong financial performance and favorable market conditions. It expects the company's net interest income to grow at a CAGR of 14.7% over FY24-26.

  • Happiest Minds Technologies announces a strategic partnership with Solvio to provide salesforce implementations offering practical solutions on a global scale, transforming client engagements and increasing operational efficiencies.

  • Tribhuwan Adhikari, MD and CEO of LIC Housing Finance, highlights the company’s target to achieve double-digit growth in disbursement and loans in FY25. He expects the net interest margins (NIMs) in the range of 2.7-2.9% for the year. Adhikari also sees an improvement in asset quality in FY25.

  • Brightcom Group plunges to its 52-week low of Rs 11.7 per share as the NSE and BSE reportedly suspend trading its shares from June 14. This comes after the company failed to comply with SEBI's regulations to submit its financial results for Q2FY24 and Q3FY24. The company will be allowed to trade only on the first day of each week for the next six months starting June 30.

  • NLC India falls sharply as its net profit plunges 86.2% YoY to Rs 114.2 crore in Q4FY24 due to higher employee benefits expenses. Revenue decreases by 31.1% YoY to Rs 4,034.4 crore, impacted by the mining and power generation segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with declining net cash flow.

  • Adani Energy Solutions completes acquisition of 100% stake of Essar's Mahan-Sipat transmission assets for Rs 1,900 crore.

  • Saurabh Gupta, CFO of Dixon Technologies (India), sees significant growth opportunities in the mobile segment. He highlights the company’s target to achieve revenue of Rs 30,000-32,000 crore, and EBITDA margins of around 3.9-4.2% in FY25.

  • Honeywell Automation India surges to its all-time high of Rs 53,484.6 as its net profit grows 32.2% YoY to Rs 148.2 crore in Q4FY24, due to lower employee benefits expenses. Revenue rises by 11.9% YoY to Rs 950.7 crore during the quarter. It shows up in a screener of stocks with improving net cash flow for the last two years.

  • Oil India rises as its board of directors is set to meet on May 20 to discuss the issuance of bonus shares to its equity shareholders.

  • NCC surges as its Q4FY24 net profit rises 25.3% YoY to Rs 239.2 crore, while its revenue increases by 31.1% YoY to Rs 6,530.1 crore. Its EBITDA rises 18.5% to Rs 551 crore. The company appears in a screener for stocks with low debt.

  • Centre lowers the windfall tax on locally produced crude oil to Rs 5,700 per tonne from Rs 8,400 earlier. Meanwhile, the tax on diesel, aviation turbine fuel (ATF), and petrol remains ‘Nil’.

  • Pricol surges to its all-time high of Rs 464 per share as its net profit grows by 39.3% YoY to Rs 41.5 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue increases by 12% YoY to Rs 588.5 crore during the quarter. It shows up in a screener of stocks with zero promoter pledge.

  • Brookfield India Real Estate Trust is set to acquire a 50% stake in four assets from Bharti Enterprises. This includes commercial properties totaling 3.3 million square feet, valued at Rs 6,000 crore.

  • Titagarh Rail Systems rises sharply as its net profit surges by 63.7% YoY to Rs 78.9 crore in Q4FY24, helped by a fall in finance costs. Revenue increases by 8.8% YoY to Rs 1,067.1 crore, driven by an improvement in the freight rail systems segment. It appears in a screener of stocks with increasing net profit for the past four quarters.

  • Jindal Stainless falls sharply as its net profit plunges by 34.6% YoY to Rs 500.7 crore in Q4FY24, due to higher employee benefits, finance, stores & spares consumed, and power & fuel expenses. Revenue declines by 3% YoY to Rs 9,509 crore, caused by lower nickel prices and weak exports. It features in a screener of stocks with growing costs YoY for long-term projects.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 22,292.60 (92.1, 0.4%), BSE Sensex was trading at 73,338.24 (351.2, 0.5%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 20,831.30 (89.5, 0.4%).

  • Market breadth is surging up. Of the 1,885 stocks traded today, 1,529 were gainers and 298 were losers.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Honeywell Automation India Ltd. (55,737.50, 13.1%), Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (4,603.70, 10.1%) and Oberoi Realty Ltd. (1,711.15, 8.7%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Bandhan Bank Ltd. (179.60, -5.4%), Mankind Pharma Ltd. (2,092.55, -4.5%) and Canara Bank (113.70, -4.5%).

Volume Shockers

33 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Honeywell Automation India Ltd. (55,737.50, 13.1%), Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (4,603.70, 10.1%) and NCC Ltd. (273.55, 8.8%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Bandhan Bank Ltd. (179.60, -5.4%), Mankind Pharma Ltd. (2,092.55, -4.5%) and Kama Holdings Ltd. (2,474.90, -2.0%).

FDC Ltd. (472.80, 3.9%) was trading at 11.1 times of weekly average. Carborundum Universal Ltd. (1,646.20, 7.4%) and 3M India Ltd. (29,999, 4.8%) were trading with volumes 10.6 and 8.2 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

37 stocks made 52 week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Adani Power Ltd. (640.35, 0.1%), Ashok Leyland Ltd. (206.65, 2.6%) and Astral Ltd. (2,273.05, 2.7%).

11 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Sunteck Realty Ltd. (446, 4.5%) and eClerx Services Ltd. (2,401.90, 4.3%). 7 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Sundram Fasteners Ltd. (1,185.30, -2.1%) and PI Industries Ltd. (3,608.30, -1.5%).

 
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The Baseline
16 May 2024
By Satyam Kumar

Indian equity markets have stood out as a bright spot in the global investment landscape. India’s flagship index Nifty 500 has delivered gains of 34% in the past year, outperforming global counterparts like Nikkei 225, S&P 500 and others. However, volatility has spiked recently, with India VIX surpassing the 20-point mark, reaching its highest level since early 2023. The surge in volatility can be attributed to concerns that the ruling party might win fewer seats than initially expected. Analysts also worry about lower voter turnout, heightening the possibility of negative surprises.

Given the recent volatility, it is important to look at both the past quarter and past year to assess the performance of stocks and sectors.  In this edition of Chart of the Week, we dive into Trendlyne’s indices and sector dashboard to identify the top-performing sectors. We also take a look at the companies driving growth within each sector. Simultaneously, we identify the reasons for the stocks that have demonstrated resilience over the long term and during periods of heightened volatility.

It's crucial to examine the sectors that have thrived despite recent volatility. Analysing sectors helps diversify investments, make informed decisions, and grasp broader trends. So we have selected the top nine sectors over the past quarter as well as the past year,  highlighting the stocks that have contributed the most to the sectoral gains.

Consumer Durables, Realty & Auto stocks benefit from rising demand in  premium segments

Consumer Durables stands out as the top-performing sector, after posting a 355% gain over the past year. Polycab India gained from the demand surge in real estate and infrastructure sectors, marking a 42.9% rise in the past quarter and a 91.8% surge over the past year. Similarly, Dixon Technologies (India) rose 34.1% in the last quarter and surged 191% in the past year. Dixon Technologies has benefitted from the manufacturing boost buoyed by the ‘Make in India’ initiative and the ‘China+1’ strategy.  In the ‘China+1’ strategy, companies are shifting a significant portion of their manufacturing from China to other developing nations like India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, etc.

Likewise, electrical appliances manufacturer Havells India, saw a 25.2% uptick in its share price in the last quarter, accounting for 20.7% of the sector's 18.9% gains during the same period. This growth was largely fueled by increased demand for summer appliances due to rising temperatures nationwide and the uptick in discretionary spending among Indian consumers.

The Realty sector soared by 124% in the past year, driven by heightened demand for luxury residences as appetite for a higher standard of living increases. DLF, Macrotech Developers, and Prestige Estates Projects were major contributors, with respective gains of 90.2%, 130.7%, and 211.8% over the past year.

However, the realty sector's gains moderated in the last quarter as presales consolidated due to a lack of new launches. Despite this, the sector managed a 6.9% increase, with Prestige Estate Projects and Godrej Properties accounting for more than half of the gains. These companies benefited from increased realisations per square foot in metropolitan areas and their expansion in tier-I and tier-II cities.

The automobile and auto components sector has been consistently rising with gains of 14.4% in the past quarter and 71% in the past year. This was driven by higher sales in the premium segment and stable raw material prices, resulting in higher realisations. However, sluggish monsoons impacted sales in the entry-level segment, with surges observed only during festive seasons. Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra emerged as consistent gainers, contributing to over one-third of the sector's gains in both the last quarter and the past year.

Rising demand for electricity drives utilities, mining and general industrials higher

According to Trendlyne’s Sector and Indices Dashboard, the metals and mining sector has risen 18.2% in the past quarter and 85% in the past year. In terms of total production, India's mining sector grew by 7.5% in FY24 with robust demand in steel, cement, and aluminium industries, highlighting strong economic activity. Hindustan Zinc was the best-performing stock in the past quarter as it rose 68%. Coal India also outperformed its peers in the past year with 90% gains as production rose 10% on an annual basis driven by demand from thermal power plants. 

Meanwhile, the utilities sector, which is a direct beneficiary of rising electricity demand, rose 7.1% in the past quarter and 116% in the past year. NTPC has consistently contributed to sectoral growth as it gained 9.4% in the past quarter and 101% in the past year. 

State-run NTPC has announced plans to add 5 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity in FY25. Of this, the company plans to install 3 GW of renewable energy capacity and the remaining 2 GW of thermal power capacity.

General Industrials, on the other hand, is the best-performing sector in the past quarter with gains of 24.6%. Siemens, ABB India, and Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) are the top sector drivers with each contributing 16%, 15% and 13.1% to the sectoral rise. If we look at the performance over the past year, the sector has risen by 120%. Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL), HAL, and Suzlon Energy are the highest contributing stocks as they rose 162.2%, 240.3% and 377.8% in the past year.  Rising demand for heavy electrical equipment from the utilities sector drove BHEL and Suzlon Energy higher. 

Similarly, defence company HAL witnessed its order book swell over Rs 94,000 crore at the end of FY24 as it received orders for its armoured helicopters and fighter jets amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Industry leaders such as Indigo, Bharti Airtel and Dmart drive sectoral gains

The transportation sector surged by 95% in the past year. Adani Ports & SEZ and InterGlobe Aviation (Indigo) emerged as key drivers, responsible for over 50% of the sector’s total growth. While Adani Ports has posted moderate gains amid high volatility in the past quarter, Indigo soared by 29.4%, contributing 67.5% to the sector's 10% gains in the same period. The expansion of new airports has improved connectivity which in turn has increased the preference for air travel, resulting in a rise of air passenger traffic to pre-COVID levels. In addition, stable fuel prices and expansion into international routes have also played a role in Indigo's share price uptick.

The telecom services sector, which rose 16.6% in the past quarter, switched places in the chart with the commercial services and supplies sector as their major contributor, Adani Enterprises which gained 48% in the past year, consolidated in the past quarter. Bharti Airtel, contributing 68.4% to the telecom sector's rise, gained as Chairman Sunil Mittal indicated a potential tariff hike post-elections in Q2. This strategic move aims to enhance their RoCE (return on capital employed) amidst substantial investments in 5G and increased customer acquisition costs.

Meanwhile, the retailing sector demonstrated steady growth, advancing 18% in the past quarter and 76% over the past year. Trent and Avenue Supermarts (Dmart) emerged as consistent performers, accounting for over 90% of sectoral gains in both periods. The continuous momentum in discounted mass-consumer products and the surge in urban consumer spending due to rising income levels have driven the sales volume of retail giants like Dmart and Trent.

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
15 May 2024
Market closes flat, Power Finance Corp's net profit grows by 20.3% YoY to Rs 5,624.4 crore in Q4
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 22,200.55 (-17.3, -0.1%), BSE Sensex closed at 72,987.03 (-117.6, -0.2%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 20,741.85 (58.1, 0.3%). Of the 2,133 stocks traded today, 1.235 were gainers and 838 were losers.

Indian indices maintained the losses from the morning session and closed flat. The volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose by 0.3% and closed at 20.3 points. Colgate-Palmolive’s net profit missed Forecaster estimates by 5.3% despite growing by 20.1% YoY to Rs 379.8 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue increased by 10.3% YoY to Rs 1,512.7 crore during the quarter.

Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 closed higher with the benchmark index closing flat. Nifty Realty and Nifty PSU Bank closed higher than Tuesday’s closing level. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, telecommunication equipment emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of over 5.4%.

Most European indices trade in the green, except for France’s CAC 40 trading lower. US indices futures trade flat, indicating a cautious start. Eurozone’s industrial production in March increased by 0.6% MoM against estimates of 0.5% growth.

  • Shree Cements sees a long buildup in its May 30 future series as its open interest rises 19.3% with a put-call ratio of 0.4.

  • Colgate-Palmolive (India) falls sharply as its net profit misses Forecaster estimates by 5.3% despite growing by 20.1% YoY to Rs 379.8 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue increases by 10.3% YoY to Rs 1,512.7 crore during the quarter. It appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased their shareholding in the past quarter.

  • Asahi India Glass rises as its net profit grows by 7.2% YoY to Rs 73.9 crore in Q4FY24, owing to lower raw material and inventory costs. Revenue increases by 3% YoY to Rs 1,105 crore, helped by an improvement in the automotive glass segment. It shows up in a screener of stocks near their 52-week highs with significant volumes.

  • Jyothy Laboratories falls sharply as its net profit misses Forecaster estimates by 8.1% despite growing by 32.4% YoY to Rs 78.2 crore in Q4FY24, helped by lower inventory and finance costs. Revenue increases by 7% YoY to Rs 660 crore, driven by improvements in the fabric care, dishwashing, and personal care segments. It features in a screener of stocks underperforming their industries in the past quarter.

  • Aakash Ohri, Joint Managing Director and Chief Business Officer of DLF, anticipates FY25 sales to be in the range of Rs 17,000-Rs 18,000 crore. He says that the launch of Privana was postponed to FY25 due to regulatory delays. Ohri also expects the company's Mumbai project to be launched in either Q3 or Q4 of FY25.

  • Manali Petrochemicals rises as its UK-based arm, PennWhite, and KRAHN UK ink a long-term agreement to distribute silicone oil in the UK and Ireland markets.

  • Go Digit General Insurance's Rs 2,614.7 crore IPO gets bids for 0.2X the available 5.3 crore shares on offer on the first day of bidding. The retail investor quota gets bids for 1X the available 92.1 lakh shares on offer.

  • Granules India reappoints Krishna Prasad Chigurupati as Chairman and Managing Director of the company for a period of five years, effective from August 31, 2024.

  • Moody’s Ratings forecasts India’s GDP growth at 6.6% in FY25. The ratings agency expects strong demand for loans by NBFCs, driven by the country’s robust economic growth, which will support the sector’s profitability.

  • Power Finance Corp rises sharply as its net profit grows by 20.3% YoY to Rs 5,624.4 crore in Q4FY24, helped by a reduction in provisions. Revenue increases by 20.3% YoY to Rs 24,141.4 crore. It features in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue for the past four quarters.

  • Power stocks like Siemens, CG Power and Industrial Solutions, Suzlon Energy, and Adani Green Energy are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index, BSE Power, is also trading in the green.

  • Archean Chemicals falls sharply as its net profit plunges 57.8% YoY to Rs 57.6 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue decreases by 25.8% YoY to Rs 283.9 crore during the quarter. It shows up in a screener of stocks with high promoter pledges.

  • B Thiagarajan, Managing Director of Blue Star, notes that tier 2-3 cities account for more than 65% of sales. He raises the growth estimate for the company’s summer sales to 30-40% from 25-30% earlier. Thiagarajan also highlights that the AC penetration in India stands at around 8%, and expects it to increase to 20-25% by 2030.

  • Life Insurance Corp of India rises as the Securities and Exchange Board of India grants the company an additional three years to achieve 10% public shareholding.

  • TBO Tek’s shares debut on the bourses at a 55% premium to the issue price of Rs 920. The Rs 1,550.8 crore IPO has received bids for 86.7 times the total shares on offer.

  • Oberoi Realty surges to its all-time high of Rs 1,629.1 per share as its net profit grows by 64.1% YoY to Rs 788 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue rises by 56.6% YoY to Rs 1,558.6 crore, helped by an improvement in the real estate segment. It appears in a screener of stocks with negative to positive growth in sales and profit with strong price momentum.

  • Lalit Agarwal, CMD of V-Mart Retail, highlights the company’s target to achieve like-for-like growth of 6-7%, and revenue growth of 13-15% in FY25. He anticipates improvement in margins, and states that the company will maintain prices at current levels. Agarwal also notes the improvement in Bihar and other eastern parts of India.

  • Aadhar Housing Finance’s shares make a flat debut on the bourses at Rs 315. The Rs 3,000 crore IPO has received bids for 25.5 times the total shares on offer.

  • Siemens surges to its all-time high of Rs 7,240 per share as its net profit rises 70.2% YoY to Rs 802.5 crore in Q2FY24. Revenue grows by 18.6% YoY to Rs 5,681 crore, driven by improvements in the energy, smart infrastructure, mobility, and digital segments. The company approves a capex of Rs 1,000 crore for capacity expansion. It also approves the demerger of its energy business into a separate listed entity, Siemens Energy.

  • Go Digit General Insurance raises Rs 1,176.6 crore from anchor investors ahead of its IPO by allotting 4.3 crore shares at Rs 272 each. Investors include Fidelity Investment Trust, Goldman Sachs, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Custody Bank of Japan, Bay Pond Partners, East Spring Investments India, Mirae Asset Mutual Fund, and Florida Retirement System.

  • The MSCI Global Standard Index adds 13 companies including PB Fintech, Phoenix Mills, Indus Towers, and NHPC during its May review. Meanwhile, One97 Communications (Paytm), Berger Paints, and Indraprastha Gas have been excluded from the standard index.

  • Cipla's promoters Shirin Hamied, Rumana Hamied, Samina Hamied, and Okasa Pharma together sell a 2.5% stake in the company. Post transaction, the entire promoter group holds a 31.7% stake in the company.

  • Mahindra & Mahindra's subsidiary, Mahindra Holdings, sells its entire 30.8% stake in New Delhi Centre for Sight for Rs 425.4 crore to Space Investments, Defati Investments Holdings BV and Infinity Partners.

  • Aurionpro Solutions' board approves a bonus issue of shares to equity shareholders of the company in the ratio of 1:1.

  • Bharti Airtel is falling as its net profit plunges 31.1% YoY to Rs 2,071.6 crore in Q4FY24 due to higher network operating, access, license fee, employee benefits, and sales & marketing expenses. Revenue grows by 4.4% YoY to Rs 37,599.1 crore, owing to improvements in the mobile services - India and South Asia, Airtel business, homes services, and digital TV services segments. It shows up in a screener of stocks with negative profit growth where promoters are decreasing their shareholding QoQ.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Siemens Ltd. (7,119.30, 6.9%), Life Insurance Corporation of India (990, 6.3%) and Linde India Ltd. (8,775.30, 6.0%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Canara Bank (113.31, -79.4%), Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. (2,672.55, -5.2%) and ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd. (577.05, -3.4%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

32 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Hitachi Energy India Ltd. (10,745.65, 9.8%), ITI Ltd. (313.55, 9.8%) and Thermax Ltd. (5,087.80, 8.4%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. (2,672.55, -5.2%), Archean Chemical Industries Ltd. (616.60, -4.5%) and V-Mart Retail Ltd. (2,135, -1.7%).

Oberoi Realty Ltd. (1,574.15, 3.6%) was trading at 18.2 times of weekly average. KEC International Ltd. (760.75, 5.7%) and Eris Lifesciences Ltd. (880.55, 0.5%) were trading with volumes 11.2 and 9.0 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

34 stocks overperformed with 52 week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Adani Power Ltd. (639.75, 1.9%), BASF India Ltd. (4,574.80, -0.9%) and Biocon Ltd. (311.90, 0.3%).

20 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Sundram Fasteners Ltd. (1,210.70, 5.9%) and Sona BLW Precision Forgings Ltd. (604.55, 4.3%). 5 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Canara Bank (113.31, -79.4%) and Archean Chemical Industries Ltd. (616.60, -4.5%).

 
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15 May 2024
 
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The Baseline
14 May 2024
5 stocks to buy from analysts this week
By Satyam Kumar

1. ICICI Bank:

KR Choksey maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 1,355, indicating a potential upside of 20.1%. In Q4FY24, the company's revenue surged by 24.6% year on year to Rs 67,181.7 crore, while its net profit grew by 29.2% YoY to Rs 12,728.6 crore. Analyst Unnati Jadhav is optimistic as the bank's performance was in line with expectations. She suggests that lower-than-expected provisions led net profits to rise in Q4, exceeding estimates by 2%.

Jadhav identifies the retail loan segment as a key growth driver for the bank – it recorded significant growth of 19.4% YoY and 3.7% QoQ. The retail loan portfolio constitutes 46.8% of the total portfolio. She anticipates the cost-to-income ratio to rise to 40.5% for FY26 due to ongoing investments in branch expansion and digital banking strategies. Jadhav estimates a profit CAGR of 14.5% over FY25-26, and a 16.4% CAGR in advances.

2. TVS Motor Company:

Geojit BNP Paribas maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this 2/3-wheeler manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 2,265, indicating an upside of 9.5%. In Q4FY24, the company reported a revenue growth of 23.5% YoY, coming just shy of the Rs. 10k crore mark to Rs 9,999 crore. It also saw a 15.1% YoY increase in its net profit to Rs 387 crore. Analyst Antu Eapen Thomas attributes the Q4FY24 revenue jump to strong volume growth, a superior product mix, and improved realisation.

Thomas notes that the EBITDA margin met their expectations, rising by 105 basis points YoY to 11.3%, supported by softening raw material prices and effective cost control measures. He highlights the company's outperformance compared to its peers in Q4, with market share in the motorcycles segment rising by 50 basis points to 13.7% due to urban commuter growth and a strong product mix in the 125 cc category.

Thomas is optimistic as the company plans to launch several new products ranging from 5KW to 25KW on the EV platform by FY25. He notes that the company aims to expand its dealer network from 400 to 800 by year-end and currently derives 10% of its volume from EVs.

3. KPR Mill:

Sharekhan reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this textiles company with a target price of Rs 965, suggesting a potential upside of 19.9%. In Q4FY24, the company's revenue experienced a 12.7% YoY decline to Rs 1,708.6 crore, while net profit increased by 1.9% YoY to Rs 213.6 crore. 

Analysts at Sharekhan attribute this rise in net profit to improved EBITDA margins, which increased by 332 basis points YoY to 19.7%. They express optimism as lower raw material costs contributed to a 541 basis points YoY rise in gross margins.

Analysts at Sharkhan note, “In the medium to long term, the China+1 factor, the likely signing of the free trade agreement (FTA) with the UK, and increasing opportunities in the US market provide scope for consistent growth in its high-margin garment business (~40% of the total revenue).” They are bullish on the company as the brownfield capacity addition of 30 million pieces is set to be completed by H1FY25. Following the expansion, analysts expect that the company will produce 40 million pieces per quarter in H1FY25 and 45 million pieces per quarter in H2FY25.

4. Kajaria Ceramics:

ICICI Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this tiles company with a target price of Rs 1,440, indicating a 24.1% upside. In Q4FY24, the company's revenue grew by 3.5% YoY to Rs 1,258.3 crore. However,  its net profit declined by 5.2% YoY to Rs 102.4 crore. Analysts Bhupendra Tiwary and Hammaad Ahmed Ulde attributed this profit decrease to relatively lower tile prices, which impacted margins. During Q4FY24, tile sales volumes increased by 5.5% YoY to 29.6 million square meters (MSM).

Tiwary and Ulde are optimistic as the management outlined a 3-year plan to achieve a volume of 150 million square meters (MSM) of tiles by FY27, implying a volume CAGR of 11.5% and a tiles revenue CAGR of around 11% over FY25-27, reaching Rs 5,500 crore. They note the company’s intentions to expand its presence in tier-II and tier-III cities. Kajaria has indicated that demand recovery is likely post-elections, in Q2FY25. With stable gas prices and benefits driven by operating leverage, they anticipate EBITDA margins to improve to 16% and 16.5% in FY25 and FY26, respectively, from the current 15.3% in FY24.

5. Aarti Drugs:

Axis Direct maintains its 'Buy' rating on this pharmaceutical company with a target price of Rs 570, indicating an upside of 20.8%. In Q4FY24, the company witnessed a 16.4% YoY decline in revenue to Rs 621.1 crore, while its net profit decreased by 15.7% YoY to Rs 47.3 crore. But analyst Ankush Mahajan highlights that the company surpassed expectations on a sequential basis, with a 2.3% revenue growth and 34.4% net profit growth QoQ in the March quarter.

Mahajan is optimistic as the company's gross margins improved by 282 bps QoQ due to a better product mix and declining input costs. He also noted a 227 bps QoQ improvement in EBITDA margin, driven by operating leverage from enhanced capacity utilisation.

Mahajan is also positive as the company announced a greenfield project for dermatology products at its Tarapur facility, with plans to ramp up operations by H1FY25. He expects growth in the API segment due to an anticipated positive shift in the export landscape, supported by likely interest rate cuts, low stock levels, and rising demand.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
14 May 2024
Market closes higher, Jindal Stainless supplies high-strength stainless steel for the Vande Metro train

Nifty 50 closed at 22,217.85 (113.8, 0.5%), BSE Sensex closed at 73,104.61 (328.5, 0.5%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 20,683.80 (172.8, 0.8%). Market breadth is surging up. Of the 2,127 stocks traded today, 1,603 were on the uptrend, and 485 went down.

Indian indices extended their gains from the open and closed in the green. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, fell 1.9% and closed at 20.2 points. Zydus Wellness hit its 52-week high and closed in the green after its net profit grew by 3.4% YoY to Rs 150.3 crore in Q4FY24, led by a fall in raw material costs.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green, outperforming the benchmark index. Nifty Auto and Nifty Metal closed higher than their Monday close. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Commercial Services & Supplies emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 3.4%

Major Asian indices closed higher, except for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index closing in the red. European indices traded flat or lower amid mixed global cues. US index futures traded flat, indicating a cautious start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures traded flat after rising 0.9% on a volatile day on Monday.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like Schaeffler India, Jupiter Wagons, Escorts Kubota and SKF India are in the overbought zone.

  • Apar Industries surges to its all-time high of Rs 8,399 per share as its net profit beats forecaster estimates by 38.2%, despite falling 2.7% YoY to Rs 236.2 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue grows by 9.1% YoY to Rs 4,455.1 crore, due to improvements in the conductors, transformer & specialty oils, and power & telecom cables segments. The company appears in a screener of stocks with increasing return on capital employed (RoCE) over the past two years.

  • Jindal Stainless rises as it supplies high-strength stainless steel for the Vande Metro train, a shorter-distance version of the Vande Bharat Express.

  • Bajaj Electricals appoints Pooja Bajaj as Executive Director for a period of five years, effective from May 14, 2024.

  • Ashu Shinghal, the Managing Director of Mahanagar Gas, expects EBITDA per standard cubic meter (scm) to be in the range of Rs 10-13 in FY25. He also forecasts volume growth of 6-7% during the year, driven by the CNG segment. Shinghal has guided a capex of Rs 1,000 crore for FY25.

  • BASF India surges to its all-time high of Rs 4,580 per share as its net profit grows by 15.3% QoQ to Rs 161.4 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue rises by 1% QoQ to Rs 3,360 crore, due to improvements in the agricultural solutions, materials, and chemicals segments. It features in a screener of stocks with rising net cash flow and cash from operating activities.

  • Zydus Wellness rises to its 52-week high of Rs 1,745 as its net profit grows by 3.4% YoY to Rs 150.3 crore in Q4FY24, led by a fall in raw material costs. Revenue increases by 9.6% YoY to Rs 778 crore on account of improvement in the personal care segment. It appears in a screener of stocks outperforming their industries in the past quarter.

  • PVR INOX's Q4FY24 net loss narrows 61.2% YoY to Rs 129.5 crore, while its revenue rises 12.1% YoY. The movie exhibition segment contributes most towards the revenue growth. The company appears in a screener for stocks with decreasing debt.

  • Ramesh Kalyanaraman, Executive Director at Kalyan Jewellers, highlights that same-store sales growth (SSSG) remains strong so far in FY25. He anticipates a decline in gross and EBITDA margins due to its FOCO (franchise-owned company operated) model. Kalyanaraman expects revenue contribution from the Middle East to be in the early teens (10-14%).

  • Mukka Proteins rises as its Q4FY24 profit increases by 33% YoY to Rs 29.2 crore, driven by lower input and inventory costs. However, revenue declines 39% YoY during the quarter. The company appears in a screener for stocks outperforming their respective industries over the past week.

  • Devyani International posts a net loss of Rs 7.5 crore in Q4FY24 compared to a net profit of Rs 60.7 crore in Q4FY23 due to higher raw materials, employee benefits, and finance costs. However, revenue grows by 38.7% YoY to Rs 1,047.1 crore during the quarter. It shows up in a screener of stocks with low debt.

  • Sterlite Technologies is rising as it enters a strategic partnership with du Telecom, a UAE-based telecom company, to supply advanced optical cable designs featuring bend-resistant fibre.

  • B. Ramesh Babu, MD and CEO of Karur Vysya Bank, states that net interest margins (NIMs) at 4.2% remained in line with expectations. He expects NIMs to be around 4% in H1FY25, assuming no rate cuts and stable liquidity. Babu forecasts a loan growth of 14% in FY25.

  • Mankind Pharma reportedly plans to acquire Bharat Serum & Vaccines from Advent. Advent seeks a valuation of around $2 billion for Bharat Serum.

  • Metal stocks like Jindal Stainless, Jindal Steel & Power, NMDC, and JSW Steel are rising sharply in trade. All constituents of the broader BSE Metal index are also trading in the green, helping it to trade near its all-time high of Rs 32,136.6.

  • Cochin Shipyard surges as it wins an order worth Rs 500-1,000 crore from a European client to design and construct a hybrid service operation vessel, with an option for two more such vessels.

  • India’s WPI inflation jumps to 1.3% in April, from 0.5% in March, driven by higher prices of food articles, electricity, crude petroleum and natural gas, and manufacture of food products.

  • KR Choksey retains its 'Buy' rating on Cipla with an upgraded target price of Rs 1,633 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 18.2%. The brokerage believes that the company's integration with Actor Pharma in South Africa, acquisition of cosmetic and personal care business, Ivia Beaute, and in-licensing of CNS portfolio from Sanofi in India should help accelerate growth. It expects the company's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 7.2% over FY24-26.

  • The Reserve Bank of India approves Quant Money Managers to acquire a 10% stake in RBL Bank through various schemes of quant mutual funds.

  • Jindal Steel & Power surges to its all-time high of Rs 971 per share as its net profit grows by 102.2% YoY to Rs 935.4 crore in Q4FY24, owing to a decrease in raw materials and finance costs. However, revenue declines by 1.5% YoY to Rs 13,487 crore. It features in a screener of undervalued growth stocks.

  • India’s CPI inflation eases marginally to 4.8% in April. However, food inflation rises to 8.7% compared to 8.5% in March, while fuel and light inflation contracts to 4.2%.

  • Rail Vikas Nigam rises as it wins an order from Southern Railway for the provision of an automatic block signaling system. The project cost, including GST, is Rs 239.1 crore.

  • Shriram Finance is rising as its board of directors approves the sale of its subsidiary, Shriram Housing Finance, to Mango Crest Investment for Rs 4,630 crore.

  • Hindalco Industries rises as its arm, Novelis, registers a statement on Form F-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission for an Initial Public Offering.

  • DLF's net profit surges by 61.5% YoY to Rs 920.7 crore in Q4FY24, helped by a reduction in finance costs. Revenue increases by 46.6% YoY to Rs 2,134.8 crore, driven by the improvement in sales booking. It appears in a screener of stocks with increasing return on equity (RoE) over the past two years.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 22,168 (64.0, 0.3%), BSE Sensex was trading at 72,905.52 (129.4, 0.2%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 20,595.90 (84.9, 0.4%).

  • Market breadth is overwhelmingly positive. Of the 1,835 stocks traded today, 1,488 were in the positive territory and 295 were negative.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Indian Railway Finance Corporation Ltd. (157.30, 7.8%), Adani Power Ltd. (628.05, 5.6%) and NHPC Ltd. (98.95, 5.6%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Tube Investments of India Ltd. (3,757.55, -4.5%), UPL Ltd. (510.05, -4.5%) and Cipla Ltd. (1,357.35, -4.1%).

Volume Shockers

17 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included BASF India Ltd. (4,617.45, 12.7%), Cochin Shipyard Ltd. (1,343.20, 12.4%) and Finolex Industries Ltd. (301.30, 11.1%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Chalet Hotels Ltd. (788.55, -3.0%), PVR INOX Ltd. (1,297.45, -1.4%) and Eureka Forbes Ltd. (436.90, -1.1%).

Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd. (1,048.95, 4.7%) was trading at 6.8 times of weekly average. Devyani International Ltd. (156.90, 1%) and Zydus Wellness Ltd. (1,711.35, 1.5%) were trading with volumes 5.8 and 5.7 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

25 stocks hit their 52 week highs, while 1 stock tanked below their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Ashok Leyland Ltd. (204.55, 2.6%), Astral Ltd. (2,211.55, -0.2%) and Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. (1,168.60, -0.8%).

Stock making new 52 weeks lows included - Clean Science & Technology Ltd. (1,295, 1.3%).

19 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Vodafone Idea Ltd. (13.25, 5.2%) and C.E. Info Systems Ltd. (2,005.05, 4.7%). 6 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including CSB Bank Ltd. (348.20, -2.0%) and Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences Ltd. (1,950, -1.0%).

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
13 May 2024
Market closes higher, KPI Green Energy’s board fundraising Rs 1,000 crore via a QIP
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 22,104.05 (48.9, 0.2%), BSE Sensex closed at 72,776.13 (111.7, 0.2%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 20,511 (41.9, 0.2%). Market breadth is in the red. Of the 2,163 stocks traded today, 859 were on the uptrend, and 1,256 went down.

Indian indices recovered from the day’s low and closed in the green. The volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose by 11.5% and closed at 20.6 points. Varun Beverages' net profit grew by 24.9% YoY to Rs 548 crore in Q1CY24, while its revenue increased by 11.3% YoY to Rs 4,398 crore.

Nifty Smallcap 100 closed lower, while Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green following the benchmark index. Nifty Pharma and Nifty Metal closed higher than Friday’s closing level. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, hardware technology & equipment emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of over 3.2%. 

Most European indices trade flat, except for Italy’s FTSE MIB trading higher. US indices futures trade flat, indicating a cautious start. According to Reuters, the US government is expected to announce a new set of tariffs on Chinese products. Electric vehicles, semiconductors, medical supplies and solar equipment from China are expected to be impacted by new tariffs.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that stocks like Jupiter Wagons, Hindustan Zinc, Schaeffler India and Polycab India are in the overbought zone.

  • BEML surges as its net profit grows 62.8% YoY to Rs 256.8 crore in Q4FY24, owing to a reduction in employee benefits and finance costs. Revenue increases by 9.1% YoY to Rs 1,513.7 crore during the quarter. It features in a screener of high volume and high gaining stocks.

  • UPL posts a net loss of Rs 80 crore in Q4FY24 compared to a net profit of Rs 1,080 crore in Q4FY23. This is due to an exceptional loss of Rs 105 crore during the quarter. Revenue declines by 15% YoY to Rs 14,078 crore, impacted by the crop protection and non-agro segments. It shows up in a screener of stocks with declining net profit for the past four quarters.

  • Tube Investments of India falls sharply as its net profit declines by 39.2% YoY to Rs 189.5 crore in Q4FY24, caused by an increase in raw materials, employee benefits, and finance costs. Revenue grows by 18.8% YoY to Rs 4,345 crore, led by improvements in the engineering, metal-formed products, electric vehicles, gears & gear products, power systems, and industrial systems segments.

  • Om Manchanda, Managing Director of Dr. Lal Pathlabs, highlights that the company aims for double-digit revenue growth, with margins at 26% in FY25. He adds that the focus remains on improving volumes, and says there are no plans for price hikes in the near term.

  • Personal products, IT networking equipment, oil equipment & services, and other leisure productsindustries surge more than 6% over the past week.

  • Varun Beverages' net profit grows by 24.9% YoY to Rs 548 crore in Q1CY24 due to a reduction in raw material costs. Revenue increases by 11.3% YoY to Rs 4,398 crore, due to improvements in the carbonated soft drinks (CSD), juice, and water segments. It shows up in a screener of stocks with improving net cash flow over the past two years.

  • Axis Securities retains its 'Buy' call on State Bank of India with an upgraded target price of Rs 1,010 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 25.9%. The brokerage believes that the bank's improving fee income profile, and declining operating expenses & credit costs will help increase profitability. It expects the company's net profit to grow at a CAGR of 7.8% over FY24-26.

  • Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings says the risk appetite of Indian banks, indicated by increased loan growth, will continue to influence their creditworthiness. The rating agency notes that the asset quality pressures from the previous credit cycle are easing.

  • Kalyan Jewellers' net profit surges by 96.3% YoY to Rs 137.6 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue grows by 34.1% YoY to Rs 4,534.9 crore, led by the improvement in customer additions and franchised showrooms. It features in a screener of stocks with increasing return on capital employed (RoCE) over the past two years.

  • KPI Green Energy’s board of directors approves raising funds worth Rs 1,000 crore through a qualified institutional placement (QIP).

  • Sharda Cropchem rises sharply as its net profit beats Forecaster estimates by 19.9x despite falling by 27.8% YoY to Rs 143.5 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue declines by 11.5% YoY to Rs 1,312.1 crore, impacted by the agrochemical and non-agrochemical segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with zero promoter pledge.

  • Indian Oil Corp reportedly plans a capex of Rs 31,000 crore for FY25 to expand its core business and green energy projects. The company targets to achieve net-zero emissions by 2046.

  • Bank of India's net profit grows by 6.6% YoY to Rs 1,438.9 crore in Q4FY24, helped by a decline in employee benefits expenses and provisions. Revenue increases by 20.2% YoY to Rs 16,161.7 crore, owing to an improvement in the wholesale and retail banking segments. It shows up in a screener of stocks with rising net cash flow and cash from operating activities.

  • Piramal Pharma surges to its 52-week high of Rs 166.7 per share as its net profit grows by 102.1% YoY to Rs 101.3 crore in Q4FY24, driven by a reduction in raw material costs. Revenue increases by 18% YoY to Rs 2,552.4 crore, owing to improvements in the CDMO and India Consumer Healthcare (ICH) segments. It features in a screener of stocks where FIIs increased their shareholding.

  • Auto stocks like Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Auto, and TVS Motor are falling in trade. All constituents of the broader Nifty Auto are trading in the red.

  • Rajendra V Gogri, CMD of Aarti Industries says the company maintains its FY25 EBITDA guidance in the Rs 1,450-1,700 crore range. He forecasts volume growth of 20-30% for the year.

  • Neuland Laboratories plunges as its net profit declines by 20.1% YoY to Rs 67.6 crore in Q4FY24 due to higher raw material, employee benefits, and manufacturing expenses. Revenue falls by 5.4% YoY to Rs 385 crore, impacted by the prime segment. It shows up in a screener of stocks underperforming their industries in terms of price change in the past quarter.

  • Indegene’s shares debut on the bourses at a 44.9% premium to the issue price of Rs 452. The Rs 548.8 crore IPO has received bids for 69.9 times the total shares on offer.

  • Va Tech Wabag is rising as it bags a repeat order worth $49 million (approx. Rs 409.3 crore) from Kathmandu Upatyaka Khanepani to design, build, and operate three waste water treatment plants in Nepal.

  • Sanjay Purohit, Group CEO of Sapphire Foods India, highlights the impact of muted demand and increased competition in Q4, and expects it to continue in H1FY25. He says that the company targets to improve its SSSG (same-store sales growth) by 5-7%.

  • ABB India surges to its all-time high of Rs 7,791.5 per share as its net profit grows by 87.5% YoY to Rs 459.3 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue increases by 28.9% YoY to Rs 3,063.7 crore, owing to improvements in the robotics & discrete automation, motion, electrification, and process automation segments. It features in a screener of stocks where brokers upgraded their recommendation or target price in the past month.

  • Prestige Estates Projects falls sharply as its Chief Executive Officer, Venkata Narayana K, resigns with effect from Friday.

  • Vedanta's board approves the acquisition of a 46.6% stake in AvanStrate through its subsidiary, Cairn India Holdings, for JPY 12.2 billion (approx. Rs 654 crore).

  • Tata Motors' net profit surges by 3.2x to Rs 17,407.2 crore in Q4FY24 due to a deferred repayment of Rs 9,478.2 crore. Revenue grows by 13.3% YoY to Rs 1.2 lakh crore, owing to an increase in the commercial vehicle, passenger vehicle, and Jaguar & Land Rover segments. It appears in a screener of stocks with high momentum scores.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 21,970.20 (-85, -0.4%), BSE Sensex was trading at 72,573.93 (-90.5, -0.1%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 20,406.40 (-62.7, -0.3%).

  • Market breadth is in the red. Of the 1,940 stocks traded today, 839 were on the uptick, and 1,006 were down.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include ABB India Ltd. (7,984.25, 11.2%), Hindustan Zinc Ltd. (579.10, 10.2%) and Siemens Ltd. (6,620.10, 7.3%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Bank of India (124.60, -10.2%), Tata Motors Limited (DVR) (645.60, -8.6%) and Tata Motors Ltd. (959.75, -8.3%).

Volume Rockets

23 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Esab India Ltd. (5,669, 12.1%), ABB India Ltd. (7,984.25, 11.2%) and UPL Ltd. (534.10, 6.4%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Bank of India (124.60, -10.2%), Tata Motors Ltd. (959.75, -8.3%) and TCI Express Ltd. (1,009.75, -8.2%).

Cera Sanitaryware Ltd. (,7133, 5.8%) was trading at 10.8 times of weekly average. Dr. Lal Pathlabs Ltd. (2,494.30, 6.2%) and V-Mart Retail Ltd. (2,167, 3.0%) were trading with volumes 6.9 and 6.4 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

18 stocks made 52 week highs, while 8 stocks hit their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Astral Ltd. (2,215.55, 2.6%), Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. (1,177.60, 4.4%) and Cummins India Ltd. (3,512.35, 3.0%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Bata India Ltd. (1,319, 0.8%) and CCL Products India Ltd. (572.75, -0.6%).

10 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Esab India Ltd. (5,669, 12.1%) and Dr. Lal Pathlabs Ltd. (2,494.30, 6.2%). 15 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including eClerx Services Ltd. (2,175.70, -5.2%) and Sona BLW Precision Forgings Ltd. (570.65, -3.3%).

 
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The Baseline
10 May 2024
Five Interesting Stocks Today - May 10, 2024

1. Hero MotoCorp:

This two-wheeler manufacturer rose by 6.9% in the past week and hit an all-time high of Rs 4,954.4 today. The company’s net profit improved by 16.1% YoY to Rs 935 crore and its revenue increased 12.9% YoY in Q4FY24  to Rs 9,794 crore. It beat Trendlyne Forecaster’s net profit estimates by 18.8%. The company recorded its highest-ever quarterly wholesales as it grew by 9.6% YoY to 13.9 lakh units. Growth has continued in April, when wholesales surged by 34.7% YoY.

CEO Niranjan Gupta says, “We expect double-digit revenue growth for the industry in FY25. With our upcoming product launches, we aim to outperform the industry and gain market share. We should  maintain EBITDA margins at 14-16% in the long term.”

Hero Motocorp’s Q4 EBITDA margin grew by 120 bps YoY to 14.3%. However, increased spending in the electric vehicles (EV) and premium motorcycle segments, and marketing expenditure has offset this. Margins are expected to stabilise with upgrades to current stores, premium product launches and a better product mix. The company plans to expand its network of EVs to 100 cities in FY25 and launch new products in the premium, EV and entry-level segments. 

The management has guided for a capex of Rs 1,000-1,500 crore for FY25. It also foresees export contribution to increase to 10% of overall revenue in the medium to long term. The company has received approval to form a subsidiary in Brazil, which will focus on premium products. 

Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ call on Hero MotoCorp and expects it to deliver a volume CAGR of 9% over FY25-26, driven by new launches and a ramp-up in exports. The brokerage expects revenue and profit CAGR to be 13.5% and 17%, respectively over FY25-26. The company appears in a screener for stocks with broker prices or recommendation upgrades in the past month.

2. Westlife Foodworld: 

This restaurant chain has fallen by 2.5% in the last two days after announcing its Q4FY24 results. Westlife Foodworld’s net profit plunged 96.2% YoY to Rs 0.8 crore, down from Rs 20.1 crore in Q4FY23. Trendlyne’s Forecaster had estimated net profit at Rs 13.1 crore for the quarter. The sharp decline was due to the rapid addition of new stores amid a muted demand environment, higher marketing spends, finance costs, and depreciation & amortisation expenses.

During the quarter, Westlife’s revenue grew just 1.1% YoY. Its SSSG (same-store sales growth) contracted by 5% YoY. This was led by a decline in dine-in sales (-2% YoY) and bad publicity the company faced around its cheese. 

Earlier this year, allegations surfaced in Maharashtra that McDonald’s used substitutes in place of real cheese in its burgers and nuggets. But it was later confirmed that the company used 100% real cheese. Saurabh Kalra, the Managing Director, said,  “Around 70–80 restaurants were impacted by these challenges, particularly in the western region.” Rumours are hard to kill – the management says that these concerns still persist, even after Westlife’s efforts to address the cheese controversy through targeted campaigns. 

The restaurant major also witnessed pressures as customers reduced their spending on dining out and delivery services, despite attractive discounts. In fact, the QSR industry has been witnessing demand pressures in the past few quarters. According to Prabhudas Lilladher, “QSR demand remains subdued due to inflationary pressures, lower eat-out frequency, and increasing competition from unorganized players/cloud kitchens”. 

Meanwhile, the McDonald’s operator has continued to expand its store network and added 17 restaurants in Q4 FY24. The company aims to add 45-50 stores in FY25 with a focus on South India, smaller towns, and drive-thrus. The company has guided capex of Rs 200-250 crore for FY25.

Post the company’s result announcement, Dolat Capital maintains its ‘Sell’ rating with a target price of Rs 764. The brokerage believes the company has an attractive menu offering and strong brand extensions like Mc Café, but it will have to battle a high SSSG base and subdued demand.

3. Marico:

This FMCG company surged 10% on Tuesday after it reported quarterly and annual results. Marico's revenue for Q4FY24 came in line with Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates at Rs 2,293 crore, up 1.7% on a YoY basis. Meanwhile, its net profit increased 5.3% YoY to Rs 318 crore, missing estimates by 10.5%. This was due to lukewarm rural demand in the previous quarter. Parachute coconut oil, contributing 34% to its total revenue, witnessed volume and value growth of 2% each in Q4. 

Consumer intelligence firm NielsenIQ has reported a 6.6% growth in the industry's value driven by a 6.5% increase in volumes in the March quarter. Roosevelt D’Souza, head of customer success India at NielsenIQ, stated, “The FMCG industry's growth in rural areas surpassed that of urban growth for the first time in the past five quarters.”

Marico’s Managing Director & CEO Saugata Gupta, said, “We have lost market share in the bottom of the pyramid segment in value-added hair oils, where there has been significant competitive intensity.” To counter this, the company implemented project SETU at the start of the fiscal year to improve direct reach to 1.5 million outlets by FY27, from 1 million outlets currently. The expected outlay for the project is Rs 80-100 crore spread over the next three years, which will be funded through internal accruals.

Gupta expects project SETU to enhance direct reach and weighted distribution, as well as help in market share gains across categories in urban and rural markets. Gupta anticipates Marico’s food business to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 20%, reaching 2X the current scale by 2027.

Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on Marico as it expects a revenue CAGR of 12.2% in FY25-26, led by growth in the core portfolio and 20%-plus growth in new business segments. They see the portfolio diversification into premium foods and personal care products improving the company’s revenue trajectory in the long term. With a target price of Rs 620, this FMCG player has a potential upside of 5.6%.

4. Kotak Mahindra Bank:

This bank stock fell by 8.6% over the past month after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) ordered the bank to stop onboarding new customers through its online and mobile banking channels, and issuing new credit cards on April 25. This follows the RBI's observation of deficiencies in the bank's income tax examination. The company’s joint Managing Director Krishnan Venkat Subramanian resigned a few days after the news, on April 30 to ‘pursue other opportunities’. 

The bank’s management says that the ban will affect the company’s pace of customer additions, and estimates a Rs 300-450 crore decrease in its profit before tax in FY25. Speaking on the RBI directive on the bank’s earnings call, Shanti Ekambaram, Deputy Managing Director of the bank said, “Given the recent RBI directive, the focus on cards will be on servicing and nurturing our existing customers through customer engagement and loyalty programs. Our focus on personal loans and business loans will continue as is.”

The stock, however, recovered to rise by 5% on Monday, after its net profit grew by 18.2% YoY to Rs 4,133.3 crore in Q4FY24. Revenue also increased by 25.3% YoY to Rs 12,307.1 crore, helped by the treasury, corporate and retail banking segments. The growth in net profit and revenue helped it to beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 22.8% and 32.8%, respectively. The bank's asset quality also improved as its gross and net NPAs contracted by 39 bps YoY and 3 bps YoY to 1.4% and 0.3%. It appears in ascreener of stocks with increasing revenue for the past eight quarters.

The company’s advances grew by 17.6% YoY to Rs 3.8 lakh crore, with traction across all segments. Its deposits growth (23.6% YoY) outpaced advances growth (17.6% YoY) causing its credit-deposit (CD) ratio to fall by 400 bps YoY to 84%. This will help in improving the liquidity of the bank. 

Post results, ICICI Direct has downgraded the bank to a ‘Hold’ rating with a lower target price of Rs 1,800 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 9.6%. The brokerage believes that while the regulatory ban is expected to impact growth, the company’s fundamentals remain strong with the ability to drive healthy business growth. It expects the bank’s net interest income (NII) to grow at a CAGR of 13% over FY24-26.

5. Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals (MRPL):

This Refineries & Petroleum-products company fell by 17.1% over the past week after it announced its results on 3rd May. The firm beat Trendlyne Forecaster estimates for Q4FY24 for revenue by 13.5% and the net profit estimate by 83.6%. 

For Q4FY24 the company’s net profit fell by 40.5% YoY to Rs 1138.5 crore on the back of a rise in raw material costs by 7.8%, while its revenue fell by 0.5% YoY. The stock shows up in a screener for companies having a PE higher than the industry PE.

The firm’s Gross Refinery Margin (GRM) has contracted to $11.35 per bbl  in Q4FY24, compared to $15.12 per bb in Q3. The GRM decline was due to the rise in crude oil prices by an average of 17% QoQ in Q4FY24. When compared to its peers, MRPL’s GRM was still higher than most OMCs this quarter, like Indian Oil Corp.(IOCL) at $8.4 per bb and Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) at $6.9 per bb. 

The company has processed three new crudes during the year, including Siberian Light from Russia, KG-D6 from Reliance's KG-D6 block, and KG-D98 from ONGC's East Coast block. The company’s management notes that their Russian crude usage has been at around 30-40%, which has been similar for the oil industry as a whole.

The company’s management has guided an increase in their number of retail outlets from the present 100 in FY24 to 1000 by FY27. Vivek Tongaonkar, Director Finance at MRPL said “We are excited about our strategic direction for the future. Significant planning is underway for new projects aimed at enhancing our refinery's GRMs by enhancing the PET-CHEM intensity from the current 10% to 12.5%. We anticipate an investment of approximately Rs 8,000 crore over the next five years, primarily funded through internal accruals.“

Motilal Oswal has maintained a "sell" rating with a price target of Rs 175. The brokerage said: “ While MRPL delivered a solid beat vs our estimates, we believe its earnings are set to decline from Q!FY25 amid weaker GRM QoQ. We are estimating a GRM of $8/bbl in FY25/26, leading to an RoE of 18.2%/15.4%. We value the stock at 6.5x FY26E EBITDA of Rs 61 billion, to arrive at our TP of Rs 175.”

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

 
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The Baseline
10 May 2024
The US dollar is beating the world's currencies | Screener: Export stocks with bullish analyst calls
By Tejas MD

The US dollar is showing a lot of muscle in 2024.

Every major currency in the world (including the Indian rupee) has depreciated versus the US dollar this year. Emerging markets are the hardest hit, but developed regions like Japan and Europe are also feeling the dollar's heat.

On April 29, the Japanese yen fell below 160 yen to the dollar for the first time since 1990. The main reason for the yen hitting multi-decade lows is the difference in interest rates between the US (5.5%) and Japan (0%). While Japan is among the worst performers, the effects are also visible elsewhere.

High US interest rates are typically not good news for currency values around the world. And right now, the US rate of 5.5% is at its highest since the past two decades, to curb inflation.

The high rate means that American investments such as government bonds are offering better risk-adjusted returns than most of the world. So investors are doing the logical thing: selling their country’s currency and buying US dollars, to invest in higher return US securities. This rising demand for the USD is strengthening the dollar. 

It's no surprise then, that whatever the US Federal Reserve says about possible interest rate cuts is being tracked around the world. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is probably the most closely watched person globally right now (the media even attempted detailed personal profiles of him - rare for a bureaucrat - but eventually concluded with a compliment that might also be an insult: that he is "likable without being very interesting").

The appreciation of the US dollar caused the Indian rupee to hit its record low of 83.48 against the dollar on March 22. In an unusual move, South Korea warned against depreciating the won, and Indonesia’s Central bank entered the forex market to support the rupiah. 

But despite hitting a record low, the rupee is among the best-performing currencies in 2024. 

How has this happened? And is the dollar rally set to continue?

In this week’s Analyticks,

  • The Dollar Crush: How long will the world have to put up with a rising dollar?
  • Screener: Exporters outperforming their industries in the past month, with a high number of 'Buy' ratings from analysts

Rising inflation delays Fed’s rate cut plans, strengthens dollar

The recent fall in global currencies came after the US consumer price index (CPI inflation) rose higher than expected in March (up 3.5% YoY). With US inflation hanging around like the guest that doesn't leave, interest rate cuts had to be delayed. 

US and India’s CPI inflation yet to reach their Central Banks’ targets

So on May 2, the US Fed left the benchmark interest rates unchanged at 5.5% for the sixth straight meeting, in line with Wall Street estimates. But all eyes were on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments about future rate cuts. And Powell was decidedly hawkish, saying, ‘We do not expect to reduce the target range until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.’ 

US Fed holds interest rates at a 23-year high due to stubborn inflation

Higher interest rates are pulling investors back to the US, leading to a strong dollar. In reaction, major currencies have extended their losses against the dollar. 

“It has never been truer that the Fed is the world’s central bank”, Jesse Rogers, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, said. 

Indian rupee: The most resilient among major currencies

The Indian rupee stands out in the pack, as it stayed steady in 2023 and has been resilient against the dollar in 2024 compared to other currencies. 

Major currencies across the globe depreciate against the US dollar in 2024

According to CareEdge Ratings, high FPI inflows, India’s inclusion in the global bond index, a strong growth outlook and favourable current account deficit have supported the value of the Indian rupee. 

Another major factor is the RBI’s intervention in the forex market. RBI can stop the fall of our domestic currency by selling USD from its reserve and buying INR. This increases the supply of USD and reduces the supply of INR, thereby increasing the value of the rupee.

RBI is likely to have intervened in March to arrest the rupee's fall as it headed towards its all-time lows. Kishore Narne, director of commodities and currency at Motilal Oswal said, “The RBI generally tends to control the volatility, they won’t let it slip beyond 84.”

The inclusion of Indian government bonds in JPMorgan's emerging market debt index is also a bright spot for the rupee, as it is expected to bring in foreign funds. Bloomberg Index Services has also followed suit, announcing it will add Indian government bonds to its Emerging Market Local Currency Government Index from Jan 31, 2025. These inclusions are expected to bring in foreign inflows worth over $25 billion to India over the next year. This is keeping the rupee resilient. 

However a strong dollar has been more difficult to deal with for other countries. 

Indonesia raises interest rates, while Europe's Central Bank reconsiders cutting them

Indonesia’s central bank unexpectedly raised rates on April 24, to support the country’s depreciating currency. Other currencies that have fallen sharply this year include the Egyptian Pound, the Lebanese Pound and Nigerian Naira, where volatile political environments have worsened depreciation.

In Europe, policymakers at the European Central Bank have hinted that they could cut rates at their next meeting in June. But even as inflation has cooled in the EU, officials worry that lowering their interest rates before the US Fed would widen the rate difference between the EU and the United States, weakening the euro further.

Will the US dollar’s dominance continue? This depends on the rate cut path by the US Fed. If US inflation remains high, backed by a resilient US job market and strong economic growth, interest rates won’t go down any time soon. 

The whole world has to worry about US inflation. If the Fed doesn't cut, other Central Banks will think twice about cutting interest rates even with cooling inflation in their countries, as they want to avoid further currency depreciation. So consumers, including in India, are stuck with higher borrowing costs, and are paying more to buy an apartment or purchase a car on loan. The phrase ‘America sneezes and the world catches a cold’ continues to hold.

Economists and analysts will be closely watching the US inflation numbers for April, which will be released on May 14.  Fingers crossed.

Screener: Exporters outperforming their industries in the past month, with a high number of 'Buy' ratings from Forecaster 

Electrical stocks have the highest number of ‘Buy’ calls among exporters

Volatility in Indian markets is up – the Nifty VIX has risen by 52.3% over the past. Currencies have also grown volatile, which can impact those companies that get significant revenue from exports. But some exporters are more resilient than others.

This screener shows exporters outperforming their industries in the last month with a high number of 'Buy' ratings from Trendlyne's Forecaster. 

Major stocks that appear in the screener are Voltas, Deepak Nitrite, Polycab India, Mahindra & Mahindra, Havells India, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Aarti Industries, and Alkem Laboratories. 

Polycab India rose by 11% over the past month with five analysts giving the stock a ‘Buy’ rating according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster. Motilal Oswal believes that a strong distribution network and higher capex, with a focus on backward integration, will drive growth for the electrical equipment manufacturer. It also expects the company’s exports to improve on the back of capacity expansion and new distribution channels. The brokerage sees the company benefiting from favourable industry trends, and predicts a revenue CAGR of 14.4% over FY24-26.

Torrent Pharmaceuticals’ stock price increased by 4.4% over the past month and has seven ‘Buy’ ratings from analysts according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster. Prabhudas Lilladher believes that the pharmaceuticals company’s strong presence in highly profitable branded business in the domestic, Brazil and ROW markets will help expand its margins on a YoY basis. It expects the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 28% over FY24-26.

You can find more screeners here.