Kajaria Ceramics Ltd. share price target

Weak Q4 on soft demand environment and margin pressure in tile segment; ceased plywood operations due to continued losses

We have revised our FY26/27 earnings estimates downward by 7.4%/9.1% due to weak demand, the discontinuation of the Kajaria Plywood business, and margin contraction. We had downgraded our rating to Accumulate' from BUY', we value the stock at 30x FY27E EPS to arrive at revised TP of Rs878 (earlier Rs 966). The management has refrained from providing guidance due to prevailing low demand conditions but expects to outperform the industry in FY26. KJC expects margins of ~14% in FY26, However, Q4FY25 margins were...

Kajaria’s Q4FY25 performance was weak on sales volumes as well as profitability fronts and missed our expectations. However, on a positive note, it has gained market share in FY25 as sales volume growth of 6% YoY was ahead of the industry (2% YoY growth).

Kajaria Ceramics’ (KJC) 4QFY25 EBITDA was below our estimate due to lowerthan-estimated realization and higher-than-estimated other expenses. EBITDA (including discontinued operation) declined ~28% YoY to INR1.7b (~28% miss) and OPM contracted 3.8pp YoY to ~10% (est. ~13%).

Kajaria Ceramics’ Q3 revenue rose only 1% y/y to Rs 11.6bn. EBITDA/PAT fell 16.8%/25.4% y/y to Rs1.5bn/Rs777m, below ARe’s Rs1.9bn/Rs 1.2bn.

Kajaria Ceramics (KJC) reported Q3FY25 consol. revenue growth of 1% YoY with tile volume growth of 6.7% YoY (5- year CAGR of 7.2%) and realisation decline of 3.7% YoY (-1.9% QoQ). EBITDA margin shrunk 274bps YoY/69bps QoQ to 12.8% due to higher employee cost, other expenses and lower utilisation of new sanitaryware plant, resulting in 16.8%/25.4% YoY EBITDA/APAT dip.

Kajaria Ceramics (KJC)’s 3QFY25 EBITDA was below our estimate due to lowerthan-estimated revenue and weak realization.

Weak Q3 on sharp margin contraction due to weak demand in the retail market and high overhead costs of new bathware unit

We maintain a Buy on Kajaria Ceramics with a revised PT of Rs. 1,600, factoring downwardly revised estimates and considering a healthy earnings growth trajectory in the next three years.

In line with ARe, Kajaria Ceramics’ Q2 revenue grew 5% y/y to Rs11.8bn. EBITDA/PAT fell 12%/22% y/y to Rs1.6bn/Rs843m, below our estimated Rs1.7bn/Rs940m.

Weak Q2 on sharp margin contraction due to high share of outsourced sales volume and high overhead costs of new commissioned units