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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    07 Nov 2023
    Five analyst picks this week with high upside

    Five analyst picks this week with high upside

    By Satyam Kumar

    Five analyst picks this week with high upside

    This week, we take a look at analyst picks with high upsides in target price.

    1. Jindal Steel & Power: 

    ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this steel products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 795, indicating an upside of 26.2%. In Q2FY24, the company announced a nearly sevenfold YoY rise in net profit to Rs 1,387.8 crore, while its revenue fell by 9.2% YoY. “The performance missed our estimates but was in line with the consensus,” say analysts Amit Dixit, Mohit Lohia and Pritish Urumkar. 

    The analysts believe that opportunistic export sales drove the sales volume. Despite earnings not reaching the anticipated levels, they remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the company due to the expansion of its Angul-II capex plan to Rs 31,000 crore with a delayed commissioning in Q4FY25. The analysts say, “Our belief is premised in the company’s India-centric focus and steel-focused growth plan, both without pushing leverage higher.” The analysts expect EBITDA of Rs 11,049.3 crore for FY24, growing to Rs 14,507.8 crore in FY25. 

    2. Aether Industries: 

    HDFC Securities retains its ‘Buy’ call on this specialty chemicals manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,200. This indicates an upside of 35.6%. In Q2FY24, the company’s net profit grew by 34.4% YoY to Rs 36.7 crore, while its revenue grew by 21.7% YoY to Rs 178.3 crore. Analysts Nilesh Ghuge, Harshad Katkar and Akshay Mane say, “EBITDA and profit exceeded our estimates by 14% and 19%, respectively, mainly due to lower raw material costs and higher other income.”

    The analysts believe that the demand slowdown in the agrochemical industry was due to inventory destocking at the customer end and reduced realisations across products. They add that Chinese companies flooding the Indian market with aggressively priced products has adversely impacted the performance of domestic players. 

    Despite these challenges, the analysts remain optimistic about the company, on the back of capex-led growth, advanced research and development capabilities, technocratic management, market-leading position in most of its products, strong product pipeline, and marquee customer base.

    3. Carborundum Universal: 

    Prabhudas Lilladher maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this other industrial products manufacturer but lowers its target price to Rs 1,408 from Rs 1,482. This implies a still high upside of 31.8%. In Q2FY24, the company’s net profit rose by 14.5% YoY to Rs 101.9 crore and revenue increased by 1.7% YoY. Analysts Amit Anwani and Nilesh Soni attribute the slowdown in revenue growth to “a softening of demand in Europe, Chinese companies dumping products, and the forex impact”. While the ceramics and abrasive segments saw healthy growth, the electrominerals segment dragged due to negative forex movement. 

    Even though the management lowered its revenue guidance for FY24 to 5% from 10%, the analysts remain positive on the firm’s prospects. Anwani and Soni believe that the company will see healthy growth in the long term on the back of its new product launches, better market reach, strong exports, and improvement in its recently acquired subsidiaries. The analysts expect the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 11.8% over FY23-26.

    4. Bharti Airtel:

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this telecom services provider and raises its target price to Rs 1,155 from Rs 1,025. This indicates an upside of 23.3%. Analyst Omkar Tanksale remains optimistic about the stock despite its Q2FY24 net profit and revenue missing the brokerage’s estimates by 46% and 4% respectively. The company’s net profit has declined by 37.5% YoY and revenue grew by 7.3% YoY. Its bottom line was affected by a one-time charge of Rs 1,570 crore, as it paid interest on an additional tax provision related to the Supreme Court’s new ruling on variable license fees. While revenue was impacted “by the devaluation of Nigeria's Naira and other currencies during the period,” Tanksale added.  

    However, the analyst adds that the company’s EBITDA margins beat his expectations, thanks to an increase in 4G conversions and a better service mix. 

    Tanksale remains optimistic about the telecom giant due to robust growth in its 4G and 5G customer base. He believes that the company will continue to gain market share in the long term, driven by its deep rural penetration, strong subscriber growth, and increasing average revenue per user. He expects the firm’s profit to grow at a CAGR of 13.1% over FY23-25. 

    5. Mahanagar Gas: 

    Motilal Oswal maintains its 'Buy' rating on this non-electrical utilities company with a target price of Rs 1,310, indicating an upside of 24.3%. Analysts Abhishek Santosh Nigam, Aman Chowdhary, and Rohit Thorat are optimistic, with growth set to accelerate in the industrial and commercial piped natural gas segment over the next two years, primarily because CNG is now 50% cheaper than petrol and 20% cheaper than diesel. In Q2FY24, the company’s net profit grew by 106.4% YoY to Rs 338.5 crore, while its revenue grew by 10.6% YoY.

    Nigam, Chowdhary, and Thorat believe that the total volumes met their estimates. They foresee rapid growth in the gas segment over the next two years. The company has implemented consumer-friendly measures, such as removing the take-or-pay clause and offering a discount guarantee to new, heavy-usage customers. The analysts believe that the company is encouraging CNG volume growth in the commercial vehicle segments through incentives like free fuel cards with new vehicle purchases, based on gross vehicle weight.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    03 Nov 2023
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. KPIT Technologies:

    This IT consulting & software company has risen by 10% till Friday, since announcing its Q2FY24 results on Monday. Over the past week, the stock has outperformed the Nifty IT index by 9% as investors reacted to a strong set of numbers. The company’s Q2 net profit grew 5.1% QoQ to Rs 140.9 crore and revenue by 9.3% QoQ, beating Trendlyne Forecaster’s estimates by 5.3% and 2.9%, respectively. This growth was driven by the passenger vehicle vertical and improved net realisations. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with high Piotroski scores (indicating healthy financials) and high return on equity and EPS growth.

    Another contributing factor to the stock’s uptick is the management’s upgraded constant currency revenue growth guidance for FY24 to 37%, a rise from the previous 27-30%. This revision comes despite the soft demand environment in the IT industry. The management expects robust growth across verticals, driven by its strong deal pipeline. In Q2, its total contract value stood at $156 million.

    Kishor Patil, the CEO and MD of KPIT Technologies, said, “Our medium-term business fundamentals and growth drivers remain unchanged. While the geopolitical situation and economic uncertainty across geographies are leading to a softer macro environment, we keep a watchful eye on our clients’ business priorities.”

    In the near term, KPIT Technologies expects sustained growth in the passenger vehicle segment, along with plans to increase client engagement and expand services in the commercial vehicle vertical. The management plans to expand into the off-highway four-wheeler segment in the near term and to broaden its operations to other segments in the mobility space in the longer-term.

    2. Nippon Life India Asset Management:

    This asset management company rose 5.5% on Tuesday, following an 18.6% YoY surge in net profit to Rs 244.4 crore in Q2FY24. The stock has also risen by 20% over the past month, helping it appear in a screener of stocks near their 52-week highs with significant volumes.

    Its revenue improved by 20% YoY to Rs 397.5 crore during the quarter, and it beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for net profit and revenue by 12.5% and 12.6%, respectively. 

    Growth came on the back of a 23% YoY increase in assets under management (AUM) from mutual funds to Rs 3.5 lakh crore during the quarter. The improved mutual fund AUM also contributed to an 18 bps QoQ increase in its equity market share to 6.5%. This growth is aided by a boom in the mutual fund market, which has been growing at a CAGR of 21% over FY20-23. With mutual fund penetration in India as a percentage of GDP at 14%, much lower than the global average, there is significant growth potential for AMCs.

    In Q1FY24, the company was selected to oversee the Employees' Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) and Corpus for Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) investments, which began in early July 2023. The management foresees an additional AUM of Rs 1.5 lakh crore, with an annual profit impact of Rs 5-6 crore in the future.

    The firm’s overall market share (including ETF, equity and debt) increased by 16 bps YoY to 7.5%. Sundeep Sikka, the ED and CEO of the company, commented, “We continue to witness an uptick in overall market share, driven by gains across most asset classes and a strong increase in equity market share.”

    Post results, Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with an upgraded target price of Rs 430 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 9.3%. The brokerage believes that despite the relatively lower penetration of mutual funds in India, the AMC is well-positioned to enhance its AUM growth in the future. It expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 13.8% over FY23-25.

    3. Birlasoft: 

    This IT consulting and software company hit its all-time high of Rs 593 on Friday and rose by 11.1% in the past week. The surge in price comes after the company reported a 5.5% QoQ rise in its Q2FY24 net profit to Rs 145.1 crore, while its revenue grew by 3.8%. It beat Trendlyne Forecaster’s net profit and revenue estimates by 5.7% and 1.4%, respectively. The company also features in a screener for durable stocks with improving cash flow.

    The growth was led by its performance in the Americas, which accounted for 85.8% of revenue and a 5.3% QoQ rise. The manufacturing, BFSI, and digital & cloud segments have grown by 4.3%, 5.3%, and 11.9% QoQ, respectively.  Its EBITDA margin expanded by 52 basis points QoQ to 15.7% despite higher wages and subcontract costs. 

    Deal bookings during the quarter were robust, and recovered from a weak Q1FY24. Birlasoft won a $100 million-plus deal from an existing client and booked new deals worth $167 million during Q2FY24.

    The management has guided for a muted Q3 due to high attrition (27.4% in Q2FY24), which has impacted the IT sector as a whole. But the company says it will be able to limit these attrition effects, and expects growth to recover in Q4. Speaking about future prospects, Chief Financial Officer Kamini Shah said, “We continue to win deals, generate strong cash flows, and are also seeing moderating attrition levels, all of which gives us the confidence to deliver healthy growth in FY24.”

    HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ call on Birlasoft on the back of an upward earnings growth trajectory, supported by an extensive service portfolio, better market positioning compared to peers, and recent management changes. 

    4. Oberoi Realty:

    This realty firm rose 2.8% on October 27 as its Q2FY24 net profit increased by 43.4% YoY to Rs 456.8 crore due to lower operating costs. According to Trendlyne’s Technicals, the stock rose 15.2% and outperformed the Nifty Realty by 2.6% in the past week.

    In Q2FY24, the company’s revenue improved by 76.8% YoY to Rs 1,243.8 crore, exceeding Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue and net profit by 28.5% and 53.3%, respectively. The company’s operating profit margin has also improved by 7.3%  YoY. This helped the company appear in a screener of stocks with improving operating profit and margins.

    The rise in revenue was driven by robust pre-sales bookings of Rs 970 crore across Sky City in Borivali, 360 West in Worli, and a pickup in sales in Enigma in Mulund. The company anticipates launching new projects with a gross development value of Rs 1,800 core in H2FY24, and has expanded into Northern India with projects in Gurugram.

    The management expects the Borivali Mall to be completed by Q4FY24, which will add a rental income of Rs 350 crore to its yearly pot. The Commerz III project, slated for completion by Q1FY25, is projected to add an annual rental income of Rs 500 crore. The company has reduced its net debt, thanks to a robust cash flow of Rs 700 crore from its core business. This has resulted in a 3.9% QoQ increase in the closing cash balance.

    Vikas Oberoi, the Chairman & MD of the company, said, “We believe that the real estate market will continue its upward trajectory, driven by strong demand for established brands, spacious apartments and a desire for home ownership. We expect good demand in retail, fueled by the festive season and increased consumer confidence”.

    ICICI Securities expects the company’s rental income to rise to Rs 1,130 crore in FY25E from Rs 290 crore in FY23, as rental operations from these new projects start from Q1FY25E. The Pokhran Road project is also expected to add value to the company’s revenues, leading the brokerage to maintain an “Add” rating on the stock post its Q2FY24 results.

    5. Godrej Consumer Products

    This FMCG firm has risen over 4.7% in the past two days, after announcing a 20.6% YoY increase in net profit to Rs 432.8 crore in Q2FY24. The jump was driven by a moderation in raw material prices. According to Sudhir Sitapati, the Managing Director and CEO, “The quicker-than-anticipated integration of Raymond Consumer Care and favourable palm oil costs led to profit growth”. 

    Meanwhile, its revenue has increased by 6.2% YoY to Rs 3,601.9 crore, marginally beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 0.6%, led by healthy growth in overall volumes. The company has risen 2.9% over the past month, outperforming the FMCG sector by 1.1%. 

    During the quarter, sales of Godrej Consumer’s homecare segment (which contributes around 36% of revenue) grew 5% YoY, led by air fresheners. However, the personal care segment, which makes up 59% of revenue, saw a 1% contraction due to muted growth in the hair colour range. 

    In international markets (which make up over 40% of total revenue), Godrej Consumer’s Indonesia business saw an 11% YoY growth in volumes, aided by its household insecticide business, as well as a favourable macro environment. The Africa, US & Middle East business recorded a 3% growth in volumes. Sudhir Sitapati said, “The company plans to reorganise the hair fashion segment in small East African countries, including Kenya, to improve profitability.” 

    Following the earnings release, Motilal Oswal reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on Godrej Consumer Products with an upgraded target price of Rs 1,150. The brokerage has a positive outlook on the company’s international business and expects it to deliver double-digit sales growth over FY23-25E. As a result, the company features in a screener of companies where brokers have upgraded their recommendations or target prices over the past three months. 

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    03 Nov 2023
    Seven stocks that beat expectations, despite global worries | Outperformers screener for Q2

    Seven stocks that beat expectations, despite global worries | Outperformers screener for Q2

    By Tejas MD

    The earnings season is crunch time for equity markets, as investors and analysts compare the promises CEOs had made to actual results. 

    But the Q2 season has been shadowed by concerns beyond balance sheets. Factors like rising oil prices due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, stubborn inflation, and the possibility of high interest rates sticking around for longer, have slowed market momentum. 

    These concerns have also spooked foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who, after six consecutive months of net buying, sold a net of Rs 18,893.8 crore in September, and Rs 19,982.6 crore in October in Indian stocks. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have been net buyers since April.

    But India still remains the most favoured FII destination among emerging markets.

    FIIs will now look at corporate earnings for signals on where markets are headed. Currently, the Nifty 500 index shows a revenue growth of 10.3% YoY in Q2FY24, with operating profits rising by 25.8%. Let’s take a look at the sectors and stocks that are driving the Nifty 500’s overall revenue growth.

    In this week’s analytics, 

    • Seven Stars: Seven high-growth stocks from three sectors are beating expectations
    • Outperformers Screener:Companies that beat revenue and net profit estimates, and posted strong Q2 results 

    Banking and finance stocks lead the charge in beating Q2 estimates

    The banking and finance sector has taken the lead in driving the Nifty 500’s performance in Q2FY24, with several companies beating Forecaster estimates for both revenue and net profit. The other out-performers are consumer durables and , surprisingly, a few companies in the software and services sector.

    Banking and finance companies lead YoY revenue and net profit growth in Q2

    Key players driving this momentum include CreditAccess Grameen, Canara Bank, Karur Vysya Bank, Cyient, Tanla Platforms, Dixon Technologies (India) and Polycab India.

    Except for Polycab India, all the highlighted companies rose in reaction to results, with CreditAccess Grameen rising 8.5%. Over the past quarter, Dixon Technologies has led the pack overall with a 32.7% increase. 

    Banking and finance stocks rise post results, and in the past quarter

    CreditAccess, Canara Bank and Karur Vysya not only jumped on the day of results but have continued to rise since the result announcements.

    Profits roll in: Banking and finance companies build momentum

    Companies from the banking and finance (including NBFCs) industries have been resilient in the past few quarters, and posted high revenue and net profit growth in Q2 as well, mirroring positive results from sector front-runners like HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. Three companies in focus posted a net interest income increase (both YoY and QoQ), helped by strong loan demand:

    Net interest income rises YoY and QoQ as loan demand stays strong in Q2

    CreditAccess Grameen saw a 53.3% YoY jump in net interest income, thanks to an expanding gross loan portfolio. Canara Bank and Karur Vysya Bank also reported net interest income growth, fuelled by a spike in loans in the retail segment. Karur Vysya’s personal loans jumped 2.2 times YoY, while Canara Bank’s retail loans grew by 10.5%. 

    During Karur Vysya Bank's Q2FY24 earnings call, MD and CEO Ramesh Babu said, “Retail growth has remained steady (+17%) compared to the last quarter, with most of the growth coming from mortgages, both residential and non-residential”. 

    Karur Vysya and Canara Bank’s deposits also grew at 12.8% and 9% YoY respectively in Q2. However, their deposits grew at a slower pace compared to loans, which can put pressure on margins going forward. 

    Falling attrition rates help software & services companies’ margins in Q2

    Software and services firms have had some tough times recently – this sector is highly dependent on global customers, and the slowdown internationally has hit both deal wins and margins. In Q2, industry leaders TCS and Infosys saw single-digit revenue growth, and TCS marginally missed revenue estimates. 

    However, mid-cap companies like Cyient and Tanla Platforms posted strong results, beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue and profit.  

    Cyient and Tanla showcase rising revenue YoY and QoQ in Q2

    Cyient’s digital engineering and technology segment, which saw a 22% YoY increase, has been key to its revenue boost. Meanwhile, Tanla’s enterprise communications segment (SMS and WhatsApp broadcasts) drove its top-line growth. 

    While talking about new growth verticals, Cyient’s management said that its automotive segment is gaining traction on autonomous and connectivity solutions, and that the demand trend for these services looks very strong. 

    Both companies have reported YoY rises in operating profit margins due to cost optimization measures and lower employee expenses on the back of falling attrition rates. 

    Operating profit margin rises sharply YoY but moderates QoQ

    Consumer durables companies see margins rise as raw material prices fall

    Consumer electronics company Dixon Technologies posted high QoQ and YoY revenue growth in Q2, on the back of a 76.8% YoY rise in its mobile manufacturing segment. Dixon, which operates under various production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes, is set to begin production of Google Pixel 8 phones, according to Bloomberg.

    Mobile manufacturing segment drives Dixon Tech’s revenue in Q2FY24

    Polycab India, a cable and wire manufacturer, is not far behind in revenue and profit growth, with increases of 26.6% and 58.9% YoY respectively in Q2FY24. In the Q2 earnings call, Chirayu Upadhyaya, Polycab’s Head of Investor Relations, said, “The cables segment grew with rising demand in the defense sector, which accounts for over 21% of revenues in the first half of the year.”

    As both companies' top and bottom lines grew, operating profit margins also rose YoY thanks to a fall in raw material prices, and a favourable product mix. 

    Operating profit margins rise YoY on better product mix


    Screener: Companies that beat revenue and net profit estimates, with strong Q2 results

    Oberoi Realty tops Forecaster estimates in revenue surprise % 

    This screener shows stocks from the Nifty 500 that have beaten Trendlyne's revenue and net profit Forecaster estimates for Q2FY24. Stocks from Banking and Finance, Software and Services, Consumer durables, Realty and Retailing feature in the screener. 

    Major stocks that appear in the screener are Oberoi Realty, ICICI Securities, Nippon Life India Asset Management, PNB Housing Finance, HDFC Asset Management, Central Depository Services (India) and PVR INOX.

    Oberoi Realty’s revenue grew by 76.8% YoY to Rs 1,217.4 crore in Q2FY24, aiding it to beat its Forecaster estimates by 28.5%. The realty company’s revenue increased on the back of gains from Oberoi Mall, Commerz and The Westin Mumbai Garden City. Its net profit also expanded by 43.3% YoY, thanks to reduced raw material and operating expenses.

    PVR INOX’s revenue grew the most by 191.2% YoY to Rs 1,999.9 crore in Q2FY24. This helped the retailing company outperform Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 7.8%. Its revenue rose on the back of a jump in the average ticket price (ATP) and spend per head (SPH). It posted a net profit of Rs 166.3 crore in Q2FY24 against a net loss of Rs 71.2 crore in Q2FY23.

    You can find some popular screenershere.

    Signing off this week,

    The Trendlyne Team

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    The Baseline
    02 Nov 2023, 12:30PM
    Chart of the Week: Food and Hotels sectors see big promoter holding changes in Q2

    Chart of the Week: Food and Hotels sectors see big promoter holding changes in Q2

    By Akshat Singh

    For the average investor, big changes in a company’s promoter holdings  offer crucial signals. When promoters buy shares, it can indicate their confidence in the business, a positive sign for other investors.

    But a promoter's sale of shares is not an automatic red flag—it can be due to many reasons, such as realizing profits, regulatory compliance or tax planning. 

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyze the top five companies from the Nifty 500 that have seen the biggest QoQ changes in promoter holdings. We will assess two screeners: one for the highest QoQ rises and the other for the highest QoQ falls in promoter holdings over the past quarter. 

    Adani group companies see high promoter buying in Q2

    We begin with companies where promoters already holding a substantial company stake, have further increased their holdings. Bombay Burmah Trading Corp (BBTC), Adani Enterprises and Adani Energy Solutions stand out here, with promoter holdings increasing by 8.1 percentage points, 500 basis points and 490 basis points to 74.1%, 72.6% and 73.2% respectively in the past quarter. 

    BBTC’s stakes were bought by Wallace Brothers Trading & Industrial (8.1%). However, on September 12,  India Ratings, an affiliate of Fitch, downgraded BBTC to India A+ from India AA due to its 33% stake in GoAir, which raised concerns. 

    Adani Enterprises' holdings were acquired by promoter Kempas Trade and Investments (2.8%) in the previous quarter, while Adani Energy Solutions' shares were taken up by Gelt Bery Trade and Investment (4.9%) during the same period. These transactions occurred amid allegations of "opaque investments" against Adani, with reports suggesting that the group funneled millions of dollars into publicly traded stocks of its group companies through offshore structures. 

    Turning to companies with relatively lower promoter holdings that have seen an uptick in the past quarter, we have Rallis India and Piramal Enterprises. Their promoter holdings rose by 500 basis points and 270 basis points, respectively, to 55.1% and 46.2%. On July 18, Tata Chemicals acquired a 5% stake in Rallis India to strengthen its position in the company. 

    Meanwhile, Piramal Enterprises’ promoters, V3 Designs (0.3%) and PRL Realtors (0.2%), picked up stakes in the company during the same quarter.

    MFs and FIIs compensate for high promoter selling

    We now focus on firms with significant promoter holdings that have seen a sell-off by promoters in the past quarter. This includes Shyam Metalics and Energy, Patanjali Foods and Sheela Foam, where promoters reduced their holdings by 6.7 percentage points, 7 percentage points, and 7.5 percentage points respectively, leading to adjusted promoter stakes of 81.6%, 73.8%, and 65.5%.

    Shyam Metalics and Energy's promoters, Narantak Dealcomm and Shubham Buildwell, sold a 5.1% stake through an offer for sale on September 11 to comply with SEBI's minimum public shareholding norms. Domestic institutional investor (DII) Tata AIA Life Insurance Company offset the divestment by purchasing a 1.3% stake. 

    Patanjali Foods' majority promoter, Patanjali Ayurved, divested 7% of its stake in the company through a Rs 2,533.9 crore offer for sale on July 14. This offering attracted the FPI, GQG partners, which acquired 2% of the company's stake for its Emerging Markets funds, along with a 1.3% purchase by other investors. 

    Sheela Foam's Q2 promoter divestment included CEO Tushaar Gautam (3.6%), and Rangoli Resorts (1.4%). These sales were offset by purchases by mutual funds (MFs) such as SBI Small Cap Fund (0.4%), Nippon Life India Trustee (1.8%), Kotak Funds (2.5%), and the insurance company SBI Life Insurance (1.8%).

    Now, let's shift our focus to companies where already low promoter holdings have been pared down further. GMM Pfaudler and Restaurant Brands Asia stand out here, with promoters divesting 13.6 percentage points and 25.4 percentage points, respectively, in the last quarter. Consequently, their ownership has dwindled to 25.2% and 15.4%, respectively. Promoter Pfaudler sold a 13.6% stake in GMM Pfaudler on August 18, of which 9.9% was acquired by private equity (PE) investor Chrys Capital, while the remaining shares were purchased by Canara Robeco Mutual Fund (1.5%). Additionally, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) like Taiyo Greater India Fund (0.4%) and First Sentier Investors (1.3%) bought stakes in the company.

    Restaurant Brands Asia's promoter, QSR Asia, divested 25.4% of its holdings in the last quarter, making it the highest promoter sell-off QoQ in the Nifty 500. This divestment was purchased by mutual funds (MFs) such as Quant Small Cap Fund (2.8%) and Tata Mutual Fund (2.8%). FPIs alo participated, with Goldman Sachs Funds (1.2%) and Franklin Templeton Investment Funds (1%), and the insurance company ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (6.9%) acquiring shares.

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    The Baseline
    31 Oct 2023
    Five analyst picks with profit growth in Q2

    Five analyst picks with profit growth in Q2

    By Abhiraj Panchal

    Five analyst picks with profit growth in Q2

    This week, we take a look at five analyst picks with YoY profit and revenue growth in Q2FY24.

    1. ACC: 

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this cement manufacturer with a target price of Rs 2,460. This indicates an upside of 29.7%, with analyst optimism driven by strong Q2 results. In Q2FY24, the company reported a net profit of Rs 387.9 crore, against a loss of 87.3 crore in Q2FY23. Its revenue has grown by 14.5% YoY to Rs 4,644.8 crore. Analysts Uttam K Srimal and Shikha Doshi attribute ACC’s 18% volume growth to an increase in blended cement and improvements in efficiency parameters.

    The analysts say, “The recent commercialization of the Ametha integrated unit in the demand-accretive central region will support volume growth moving forward.” They expect a 13% CAGR in volume growth over FY24-FY25 for the company.

    Srimal and Doshi are positive about ACC’s various cost optimization drives, which have led to a 17% YoY reduction in overall costs per tonne. Consequently, this has increased the EBITDA margins to 12.4% in Q2FY24 from 0.4% in Q2FY23. They expect the company’s ongoing business initiatives to further bring down operating costs. They say that initiatives such as reducing the clinker factor and logistics costs, increasing sales of premium products, a higher share of green energy, and the recent hike in cement prices will expand the company’s EBITDA margins.

    2. Sona BLW Precision Forgings: 

    ICICI Securities upgrades its rating on this auto parts and equipment manufacturer to ‘Buy’ from ‘Add’, but lowers its target price to Rs 598 from Rs 630. This implies an upside of 10%. In Q2FY24, the company’s net profit rose by 33.8% YoY to Rs 123.8 crore and revenue increased by 20.3% YoY to Rs 790.8 crore. 

    Analysts Basudeb Banerjee and Vishakha Maliwal attribute the revenue growth to the battery electric vehicles (BEV) segment, a focus for Sona BLW. Segment revenue surged by 58% YoY, contributing 27% to the total revenue in Q2. They add that the firm’s profitability has improved on the back of a favourable product mix and normalising raw material prices. 

    The analysts expect Sona BLW to maintain its EBITDA margin at 28% in FY24 and FY25. They note that the management aims to keep margins at healthy levels with the help of “the production linked incentive (PLI) scheme, product breakthroughs with better pricing power and enhanced operating leverage”. Banerjee and Maliwal expect the firm’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 42.1% over FY23-25. 

    3. Dixon Technologies (India): 

    BOB Capital Markets upgrades its rating on this consumer electronics company to 'Buy' with a target price of Rs 6,000, implying an upside of 22.5%. Analysts Vinod Chari, Arshia Khosla, and Swati Jhunjhunwala are optimistic about the company due to its remarkable revenue growth of 28% YoY, driven by the mobiles segment, which accounts for 50% of the revenue. In Q2FY24, the company reported a net profit of Rs 107.32 crore, an increase of 38.9% YoY.

    The analysts note that the company, which operates under various production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes, is in discussions with global brands for production under the IT hardware PLI scheme. They anticipate that new customers, such as Xiaomi onboarded in Q1FY24, Voltas Beko, and Itel in H2FY23, will act as growth catalysts. They also expect Dixon Technologies to start designing its own products, which will contribute to improved margins.

    Chari, Khosla, and Jhunjhunwala believe that the company is exploring product categories with high margins, including electric vehicles, defense, drones, medical electronics, and telecom infrastructure, which are expected to enhance profitability.

    4. Chalet Hotels: 

    Prabhudas Lilladher keeps its ‘Buy’ rating on this hotel chain but lowers its target price to Rs 650 from Rs 656, implying an upside of 17.1%. In Q2FY24, the firm’s net profit surged by 131.6% YoY to Rs 36.4 crore and revenue increased by 26.9% YoY to Rs 314.5 crore. 

    Analysts Jinesh Joshi and Stuti Beria credit the company’s revenue and profit growth to a 24.5% YoY increase in revenue per available room (RevPAR) and a 21.2% YoY hike in the average room rate (ARR). 

    The analysts expect “H2FY24 to be much better, aided by the ongoing Cricket World Cup and the revival in foreign tourist arrivals”. Joshi and Beria note that the addition of 168 rooms in Hyderabad and 88 in Pune during Q2, along with a significant portion of the company’s leasing portfolio in Bengaluru and Mumbai, set to be handed over from Q3FY24, bodes well for future growth. They expect the hotel’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 21% over FY23-26, driven by robust RevPAR growth and the operationalisation of its hospitality and commercial assets. 

    5. Shriram Finance: 

    IDBI Capital maintains a 'Buy' rating on this non-banking financial company with a target price of Rs 2,230, implying an upside of 18.6%. Analyst Bunty Chawla holds an optimistic outlook on the company, citing a rise in net interest margins to 8.9% and strong growth guidance in Assets under Management (AUM). In Q2FY24, the company reported revenue growth of 66% YoY and net profit increase of  67% YoY to Rs 1,786.1 crore.

    Chawla foresees robust AUM growth, with management revising its guidance upward to 18-20% from the previous 15% for FY24, thanks to the expansion in the passenger vehicle and MSME segments. The company has also reported a 14% QoQ increase in disbursements to Rs 34,600 crore. Stable costs of funds, improved liquidity utilization, and enhanced product mix are expected to boost yields.

    Chawla also notes an improvement in asset quality, as GS3 stands at 5.8% compared to the previous 6.0%, largely due to increased write-offs. He expects credit costs to remain within 1.5-2% for FY24, contributing to better yields. 

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    27 Oct 2023
    Chart of the week: India’s Nifty500 outperforms global indices in the past quarter despite recent weakness

    Chart of the week: India’s Nifty500 outperforms global indices in the past quarter despite recent weakness

    By Abdullah Shah

    2023 started off on a strong note for global equities, as inflation moderated and investors looked forward to a pause in interest rates globally. Indian indices followed the global trend, and sector indices like the Nifty Auto, Nifty Bank and Nifty PSU Bank hit their all-time highs. 

    However, the uptrend in global equities quickly turned sour as inflation proved to be pretty sticky. The recent fighting between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East is also spooking markets, as analysts worry that US, Iran and other countries will get pulled into the conflict. Central banks around the world have continued with their hawkish stance, and have suggested holding interest rates higher for a longer period. The Indian indices started falling in the past month as foreign investors began a sell-off in indian equities. This fall came after indices hit record highs in September. 

    The unpredictable global environment has in recent weeks, triggered a global sell-off across indices as people hunt for less risky options like bonds. This has put world indices under pressure.

    The Nifty 500 index has hung on to some of its early gains - it’s up by 8% in 2023 overall, as of October 25. However, it has lost 0.8% in the past three months. Despite the marginal fall, and journalists announcing that it’s dark days on Dalal Street, the Nifty 500 has still outperformed most global indices over the past quarter. The index also outperformed the US Tech 100 (Nasdaq 100) and S&P 500 in 2022. However, over the past two months, foreign investors have offloaded equities worth Rs 25,960.9 crore, causing Indian indices to fall.

    The US’s US Tech 100 and S&P 500 indices have risen the most by 33.9% and 10% respectively in 2023. However, these indices have fallen by 8.1% and 6.3% over the past quarter. It is important to note that US indices fell significantly in 2022. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell 32.7% while the S&P 500 lost 18.1%. 

    With inflation remaining sticky, US indices are facing worries of a recession, even as the US economy delivered a strong quarterly performance. The banking crisis and the worsening situation in the Middle East have added to its woes. US Tech 100 suffered its worst month of 2023 in September as it fell 5.1% due to fears of the interest rates rising or staying higher for a longer period of time.  

    Japan's Nikkie 225 index has the second highest rise of 21.6% in 2023. This rise helped the index to touch its all-time high of 33,772.9 on June 20. However, it has fallen 3.8% in the last three months. This fall can be attributed to the sticky inflation in the country and the Bank of Japan’s refusal to raise interest rates, citing domestic and global uncertainties. 

    England’s FTSE 100 is down 1.8% and 2.1% in 2023 and the recent quarter, respectively. The country is facing a persistent rise in inflation and weakening consumer sentiment. Its retail sales have fallen in September after a marginal rise in August. 

    China’s Shanghai Composite index has fallen 4.3% over the last year and 5.9% in the past quarter. The country is facing a property crisis as its largest private sector developer, Country Garden, faces a default on payment of a foreign bond. The realtor has international debts aggregating at $11 billion while it has liabilities worth Rs 200 billion. 

    The Hang Seng from Hong Kong has fallen the most (both YTD and quarter) among the major global indices. It has fallen by 14.8% in 2023 while it declined by 9.3% over the past quarter. The index is facing a sell-off after foreign investors divest their stakes in the Chinese market.

    Other notable indices are the DAX (Germany), Taiwan Weighted (Taiwan) and S&P ASX 200 (Australia). The DAX and Taiwan Weighted rose by 5.3% and 15% respectively in 2023. However, they declined by 7.8% and 4.2% respectively over the last three months. 

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    The Baseline
    27 Oct 2023
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Amber Enterprises India:

    This consumer electronics company closed 6.5% higher in intraday trade on Wednesday. This uptrend was led by its revenue increasing by 23.5% YoY and EBITDA margin expanding by 154 bps YoY due to lower input costs. This rise comes despite its net loss widening by 130% YoY to Rs 6.9 crore in Q2FY24. It also missed Trendlyne Forecaster’s net loss estimates of Rs 3.2 crore. The firm’s bottom line was impacted by higher finance costs and depreciation expenses, which rose by 49.3% and 42.2% YoY, respectively. The stock shows up in a screener for companies with cash flows from operations improving over the past two years.

    Also, the street’s expectation of healthy growth from H2FY24 onwards pushed up the stock’s prices. According to reports, several analysts retained their ratings, while some raised the target price of the consumer electronics manufacturer. For instance, Jefferies India kept its ‘Buy’ rating on the company and raised its target price to Rs 3,990, implying an upside of 37.2% from the closing price on Friday. The brokerage expects the firm’s sales in the electronics and mobility divisions to double over the next two years.

    The management’s focus is on increasing revenue contribution from the non-room air conditioners (non-RAC) segments, such as the electronics and mobility segments. Jasbir Singh, the CEO of Amber Enterprises said, “We've guided that the electronics division and the mobility division, which is the railway subsystem division, are likely to double their revenues in the next two years”. He expects this growth to be driven by new client additions, new product launches and rising order books. 

    The firm expects its overall margins to improve as commodity costs have started to normalize. It plans to reduce its net debt to Rs 650-680 crore by the end of FY24, from its current levels of Rs 960 crore in Q2FY24.

    2. CreditAccess Grameen: 

    This financial services stock has outperformed the Nifty Financial Services index by 21.5% in the past month. The stock rose 18.1% in the past month according to Trendlyne’s Technical. The stock is trading at a 52-week high. 

    In Q2FY24, the firm's AUM grew by 36% YoY to 22,438 crores. The disbursements in the quarter grew by 13.5% YoY to Rs 4,966 crore. The growth in AUM was led by the new customer addition and higher ticket size. The NIM of the bank is one of the highest among its peers at 13.1%. However, the margins are expected to compress owing to an increased cost of funds and limited scope to raise interest rates. The bottom line was also aided by lower provisioning. The gross NPA remains at 0.8% backed by high-rated customers. 

    The bank is also rapidly expanding and investing in newer product lines like loan against property (LAP), two-wheeler loans, and housing loans. This stock shows up in a screener for companies with consistently high return stocks for five years in the Nifty 500.

    In its future outlook, CreditAccess Grameen Managing Director, Udaya Kumar Hebbar has indicated that “CreditAccess Grameen will focus on geographical expansion along with building a non-micro finance (MFI) loan book. The AUM growth is expected to be at 24-25% and NIMs at 12.7% for FY24. Most of the growth would be from newly launched non-MFI verticals and geographical expansion”.

    According to Axis Securities, healthy NIMs and a strong rural presence will help in maintaining the MFI loan book, while expansion into the retail side will be an added advantage. Also, the lower NPAs will result in lower credit costs. The brokerage has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.

    3. BSE: 

    This stock exchange company hit an all-time high of Rs 1,912.8 on Friday and grew 20.8% in the past week. The rise comes after the company announced a hike in transaction costs for equity derivatives, effective November 1. Under the new transaction fee structure Rs 500 per crore will be charged for transactions with a turnover of less than Rs 3 crore. Whereas Rs 3,750 per crore will be charged for transactions with a turnover between Rs 3-100 crore. Rs 3,500 per crore for transactions with a turnover between Rs 100-750 crore, going up to Rs 2,000 per crore for transactions above Rs 2,000 crore.

    BSE’s derivatives market share has also grown to 7.4% by September 2023 from 0% in April 2023. Its average daily trading volume in options, which were non-existent between January-May 2023, has risen above Rs 26 lakh crore in September 2023. The Sensex contract is currently catering to 40% of the NSE’s derivatives volume but with the launch of the Bankex contract, BSE will address 95% of NSE’s derivative volume. The launch of Bankex (Monday expiry) will cater to a larger addressable volume and there is a possibility of further gain in market share. The company’s premium market share is 3.3%, which is also expected to rise further with the launch of new contracts and trading on non-expiry days.

    In Q1FY24, the company reported a 10x YoY growth in the net profit to Rs 442.7 crore (beating Trendlyne Forecaster's estimate by 94%) while its revenue grew by 37.2% YoY. The company also features in screener for stocks with increasing profits every quarter for the past three quarters. BSE will tentatively announce its Q2FY24 results on November 10.

    ICICI Securities downgraded from 'Buy' to 'Add’ on BSE due to higher current valuation but maintains a positive outlook on the back of stellar growth in Q2FY24 and improved pricing. The brokerage expects the company to witness traction in new products like Bankex and expects large brokerages to add BSE product offerings in H2FY24.

    4. Tanla Platforms:

    This internet & software services stock rose 4% on October 20 as its net profit grew by 5.3% QoQ to Rs 142.5 crore in Q2FY24. Due to this, the company appears in a screener of stocks with increasing profit for the past four quarters.

    The company provides services like application-to-person messaging (A2P), WhatsApp, email and chatbots for broadcasting. In Q2FY24, Tanla Platform’s revenue increased by 10.7% QoQ to Rs 1,008.6 crore. This helped the company to beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for net profit and revenue by 17.9% and 3.3% respectively. However, its EBITDA margin declined by 40 bps QoQ due to increase in cost of services, employee benefits and finance costs.

    Revenue rose on the back of improvement in revenue from the digital platforms and enterprise communications segments and also the acquisition of ValueFirst India. The enterprise communications segment (SMS and WhatsApp broadcasts), which contributes to 90% of total revenue, rose by 8.4% QoQ owing to an improvement in revenue from WhatsApp, UPI, OTP SMS broadcast and a hike in National Long Distance Connection (NLD) rates. 

    Uday Kumar Reddy, Founder and CEO of the company commented, “We expect to complete the ValueFirst overseas acquisition in Q3 subject to regulatory approvals in local geographies which would add around Rs 60-70 crore to the revenue on a quarterly basis.”

    Post results, HDFC Securities maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 1,440 per share. This implies a potential upside of 47%. The brokerage expects its volumes to improve, driven by growth in transactional SMS traffic, NLD price hikes and market share gains with ValueFirst acquisition. It expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 16.1% over FY23-26.

    5. Jubilant Foodworks

    This restaurant major has fallen over 4.5% in the past two consecutive sessions, from Thursday. This comes after it reported a fall in its Q2FY24 net profit, down 26.1% YoY to Rs 97.2 crore. This was due to factors including higher finance costs and employee benefit expenses, as well as muted demand and heightened competition. However, its revenue rose by 4.9% YoY to Rs 1,368.6 crore, in line with Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates, led by Domino’s delivery channel sales. As a result of the revenue rise, it features in a screener of companies with increasing revenue every quarter for the past two quarters.

    During the quarter, Domino’s Pizza’s like-for-like or LFL sales growth (which is the YoY growth in sales for non-split restaurants opened before the previous financial year) contracted by 1.3% YoY, therefore, remaining in the negative territory for three consecutive quarters. However, the LFL ADS (average daily sales per store) for matured stores grew 1.4% QoQ. Domino’s Pizza's ‘Cheesy Rewards’ continue to gain traction, with its membership base reaching around 2 crore (up 16% QoQ). Initiatives like 20-minute delivery and discounts on combo offers by the company are expected to aid in improving its sales. 

    Further, the company continued to expand its store network in Q2FY24, and opened 60 new outlets across various brands, taking the total to 1,949 stores in India. Sameer Khetarpal, the CEO and MD said, “We are on track to meet our guidance of opening 200- 225 Domino’s stores and 30-35 Popeyes stores for FY24”.

    Post results, Prabhudas Lilladher maintains its ‘Hold’ rating on the restaurant major, with a target price of Rs 505. The brokerage expects an increase in demand led by the festival season and World Cup. It also has a positive outlook on the company considering its focus on long-term growth. 

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    25 Oct 2023
    Five analyst picks from the banking and finance sector

    Five analyst picks from the banking and finance sector

    By Suhas Reddy

    This week, we take a look at five stocks that analysts have picked from the banking and finance sector. 

    1. IndusInd Bank:

    BoB Capital Markets maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this private bank with a target price of Rs 1,755. This implies an upside of 21.6%. In Q2FY24, the bank’s net profit grew 22.8% YoY to Rs 2,181.5 crore, and its revenue rose by 29.2% YoY. 

    Analyst Ajit Agrawal attributes the bank’s growth to its robust credit growth trajectory, where vehicle finance, non-vehicle finance and microfinance (MFI) segments have outperformed. He notes that the company’s net interest margin (NIM) was stable due to the recovery of its high-yielding consumer finance division (CFD). 

    Agrawal adds, “Strong growth momentum in retail and recovery in the MFI book led to stable margins, despite higher costs.” The analyst remains optimistic about the bank’s prospects due to its favourable loan mix and stable asset quality. He expects the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 21.3% over FY23-25. 

    2. ICICI Bank:

    Edelweiss keeps its ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a target price of Rs 1,195, implying an upside of 30.1%. In Q2FY24, its net profit grew by 35.8% YoY to Rs 10,261 crore, and its net interest income (NII) rose by 23.8% YoY. It beat Trendlyne Forecaster’s net profit estimates by 6.6%.

    Analysts Raj Jha and Umang Patil attribute the bank’s growth in Q2 to a healthy rise in domestic loans. In terms of business segments, retail and business banking drove growth. The analysts also highlight improving asset quality, with declining slippages in the retail, rural and business banking segments. 

    Jha and Patil believe the firm will continue to see healthy growth on the back of asset quality improvement and growing loans. They add, “A strong digital push, focus on risk-calibrated operating returns, and a strong balance sheet will result in a re-rating of the stock.” They expect the private bank’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 17.9% over FY23-25. 

    3. Can Fin Homes:

    HDFC Securities reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this housing finance company with a target price of Rs 920. This indicates an upside of 26.6%. In Q2FY24, the company’s profit increased by 11.6% YoY to Rs 158.1 crore, while its revenue grew by 32.5% YoY to Rs 871 crore. It beat Trendlyne Forecaster’s profit estimate by 2.3%. Analysts Krishnan ASV, Deepak Shinde and Neelam Bhatia say, "Delayed asset repricing and a mild softening in the funding environment have contributed to an improvement in NIMs, which now stand at 3.8%." 

    According to the analysts, asset quality remains stable, with slippages from the restructured portfolio at 14%, which is marginally higher than the guided range. The management has reiterated its loan growth guidance of 18%, coupled with an acceleration in return disbursement. On account of a one-time provision, the analysts have slightly reduced their FY24 earnings estimates for the company by 4%.

    4. ICICI Prudential Life Insurance:

    KRChoksey reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on this life insurance company with a target price of Rs 625, indicating an upside of 20.2%. In Q2FY24, the company’s profit grew 21.9% YoY to Rs 243.9 crore, despite its revenue falling 22.3% YoY. It missed Trendlyne Forecaster’s profit estimate by 0.4% but beat the revenue estimate by 2.8%. 

    Analyst Unnati Jadhav believes that the company’s VNB margin declined by 308 bps YoY primarily because of the shift in the underlying product mix towards unit-linked insurance and a decline in non-participating business.

    The analyst remains optimistic about the insurance services provider as it has focused on expanding its non-ICICI Bank channels and expects it to reap results from H2FY24 onwards. Jadhav believes that a balanced product mix and improved productivity of the agency channel will drive premium growth in the coming quarters. She says, “We will closely monitor the trends in product mix and their impact on margins going ahead.”

    5. IIFL Finance:

    ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this financial services provider with a target price of Rs 760. This indicates an upside of 22.7%. The company’s net profit grew by 25% YoY to Rs 474.3 crore in Q2FY24, while its revenue grew by 23.5% YoY. According to Trendlyne Forecaster, it missed the profit estimate by 2.1% YoY. Analyst Renish Bhuva says, “IIFL Finance’s healthy Q2FY24 financial performance reflects the successful execution of its retail-focused strategy.” 

    Bhuva notes that controlled asset quality, sustained traction in assigned and co-lending volumes, and strong growth in higher-yielding products like MFI and digital loans led to growth in net profit. He remains optimistic about IIFL, as it has increased its physical presence by adding 184 branches in Q2FY23, taking its total branches to 4,596 in H1FY24. He believes that diversified AUM, investment in franchise development, and access to funds at competitive rates will help sustain its growth momentum. 

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    20 Oct 2023
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Angel One: 

    This capital markets stock has soared by 11.2% over the past week, hitting its all-time high of Rs 2,369.7 per share. The surge comes as its net profit grew by 43.9% YoY to Rs 305.3 crore in Q2FY24, outperforming Trendlyne Forecaster’s estimates by 6.1%. As a result, Angel One appears in a screener of stocks with improving quarterly net profit and profit margin. 

    The company’s revenue improved by 40.6% YoY on the back of a higher number of active clients, growth in average daily turnover (ADTO) and increased number of orders.  Its ADTO surged by 143.4% YoY during Q2FY24. The active client base also increased by 16% YoY to 4.9 million, helping Angel One maintain its position among the top three brokers. Its market share increased by 336 bps YoY to 14.6%. 

    Dinesh Thakkar, the MD and CEO of the company, said, “Our orders, a key revenue driver for our business, grew by 36% sequentially to over 338 million, marking a lifetime best, while the ADTO generated on our platform remains on an uptrend.” 

    Over the past year, Angel One (14.6%) has overtaken Upstox (6.6%) in terms of market share concerning the active client base. On the other hand, Groww took the top spot from Zerodha as of September 2023.

    Post results, Motilal Oswal Financial Services maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with an upgraded target price of Rs 2,550 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 8.6%. The brokerage remains confident in the stock, given its strong growth in Q2FY24 and continued technology investments to strengthen its position. It expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 16.5% over FY23-25. 

    2. Polycab India: 

    This consumer durables company – a historically strong performer currently trading at an eye-watering PE of 78 – has dropped by 2.4% since the announcement of its results on Wednesday. The decline is on account of a slowdown in its fast-moving electrical goods (FMEG) segment and demand tailwinds in the B2B business. However, the firm reported 28.9% growth in its cables and wires business. The firm's Q2FY24 profits beat Forecaster estimates by 10.4%. 

    During the quarter, Polycab’s revenue increased by 26.6% YoY to Rs 4,253 crore, led by the wires & cables and international businesses. The company’s net profit grew by 58.9% YoY to Rs 429.7 crore and EBITDA margins also improved by 160 bps YoY due to falling commodity prices and the sale of high-margin products. The firm appears in a screener of stocks with good quarterly growth in recent results.

    Polycab has almost emptied its non-rated fan inventory in Q2FY24 and expects a revival in its lighting business. The company’s newly launched economy brand ‘Etira’ and premium brand ‘Hohm’ are seeing traction. Further growth is expected to be led by institutional demand, especially by growth in the real estate sector and affordable housing. 

    Commenting on the company’s performance, Inder T Jaisinghani, the Chairman and MD, said, “The company registered its best-ever first-half yearly revenues and profitability. A favourable demand environment, with multiple growth avenues, and the Centre’s focus on infrastructure development and structural reforms, as well as continued momentum in real estate has given us a good set of results.”

    ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Hold’ rating on the firm but raises the target price to Rs 5,600 from Rs 4,100. The brokerage believes that strong institutional demand and a revival in its FMEG segment will help Polycab’s top-line growth. 

    3. Dalmia Bharat: 

    This cement company has fallen by 7.1% since announcing its result on Saturday. The decline came after QoQ decreases in the company’s net profit and revenue by 9.2% and 12.1%, respectively, in Q2FY24. 

    Despite the lackluster sequential performance, its profit rose by 156.1% YoY to Rs 118 crore, beating Trendlyne Forecaster’s estimate by 10.1%. Its revenue is also up by 7.5% YoY, at Rs 3,234 crore. Its EBITDA margins expanded by 5.8 percentage points YoY to 18.7% due to lower power & fuel and freight costs. The company features in a screener for stocks showing growth in operating profit and operating margins.

    During the quarter, Dalmia Bharat lost market share in West Bengal and Bihar due to price hikes. In response, the management has implemented corrective measures and anticipates a positive swing starting from Q4. 

    According to the management, Dalmia Bharat has benefited from rising cement prices, particularly in the East, where costs surged by Rs 40-50/bag. Taking note of improved demand, it has also upped the price by Rs 30/bag in the southern market. 

    For FY24, the company is planning a capex of Rs 6,500 crore, including Rs 3,700 crore for the acquisition of Jaiprakash Associates’ (JPA) cement assets. Meanwhile, the company's net debt increased by Rs 290 crore to Rs 1,500 crore this quarter and is expected to swell further to around 3,000-4,000 crore with the conclusion of the JPA deal.  

    Motilal Oswal reiterates a ‘Buy’ call on Dalmia Bharat and expects its volume to clock a CAGR of 11% over FY24-26. It estimates an EBITDA/tonne of Rs 1,045 in FY24, as against Rs 901 in FY23, driven by lower opex.

    4. Bajaj Auto:

    This two-wheeler manufacturer rose by 7.5% over the past week till Friday, and also touched its 52-week high of Rs 5,510. This surge follows a 17.8% YoY increase in stock price comes on the back of its Q2FY24 net profit rising by 17.8% YoY to Rs 2,020 crore. It beat Trendlyne Forecaster’s net profit estimates by 15.1%. The management attributes this improvement in profitability to normalising commodity costs and a better product mix. The stock also shows up in a screener for companies with increasing cash flows from operations over the past two years.  

    However, this growth comes despite a 0.2% YoY dip in its Q2 sales volume. The slump in exports offset strong growth in the domestic market.  falling by 0.2% YoY as growth in the domestic market was offset by a decline in exports. In contrast, Bajaj Auto's domestic On the domestic front, the company's retail sales increased by 22% YoY, outperforming the industry’s domestic retail sales growth of 10% YoY for the same period in Q2FY24. 

    The firm gained from the healthy demand for 125cc+ bikes in the domestic industry, which made up 51% of all two-wheeler sales in the 2-wheeler domestic market during Q2. Specifically, Bajaj Auto’s retail sales in this 125cc + segment grew by 36% YoY, outpacing the rest of the industry. Currently, Bajaj Auto The company has a 30% market share in the 125cc + segment, which and this segment accounts for 65% of its domestic volumes. 

    The management expects to drive growth in the near-to-medium term by increasing its market share in the 125cc+ segment through new launches. It also aims to sustain its 80% market share in the internal combustion engine (ICE) three-wheeler segment, and boost increase its presence in the electric three-wheeler market. Although the company’s exports have been sluggish are currently subdued, wholesales and retail sales in the key markets like of Africa, Latin America and Asia have started to improve on a QoQ basis. The firm expects exports to start recovering gradually as the inflation subsides in these key markets reduces. 

    5. Karur Vysya Bank:

    This banking and finance company has risen over 6% since Monday and is currently trading near its 52-week high, after reporting healthy Q2 numbers. The bank reported its highest-ever quarterly net profit of Rs 378.5 crore (up 51.2% YoY), beating Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 5.7%, owing to a sharp decline in provisions. As a result, it features in a screener of companies with increasing profits every quarter for the past four quarters. The bank’s net interest income grew 11.5% YoY to Rs 915 crore, helped by improved revenue from the treasury, corporate banking, and retail banking segments.  

    During the quarter, Karur Vysya’s deposits grew by 13.2% YoY, while its loan book was up by 15.3% YoY, driven by the MSME and housing segments. Its asset quality has also improved, as NPAs decreased by 91 bps YoY to 0.5%. According to Managing Director and CEO Ramesh Babu, "Our slippages are under control, and our gross slippages for the quarter is less than 1%, which is as per our guidance." He also highlighted the bank’s focus on retail deposit mobilisation, while maintaining a steady growth strategy. 

    Post Karur Vysya’s results, Emkay Global maintains its ‘Buy’ rating with an upgraded target price of Rs 185, implying an upside potential of 28.6%. The brokerage has a positive outlook on the bank, given its superior return ratios. It anticipates the bank to register its decadal best RoA and RoE at 1.5% and 16%, respectively, over FY24-26E.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    18 Oct 2023

    Chart of the Week: Foreign and domestic investors pick finance, auto stocks

    By Akshat Singh

    Retail investors often seek cues from market heavyweights—foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) or domestic institutional investors (DIIs)—to identify strong-performing sectors. As the final quarter of 2023 kicks off, we take a look at the sectors these institutional investors are betting on. 

    The heatmap identifies sectors with high FPI activity in 2023. The financial services sector was a favourite among FPIs,with a net investment of Rs 1,20,525 crore. In fact, from April to July 2023, FPIs put money into this sector for four consecutive months. 

    Oil & gas, on the other hand, had the highest FPI outflow of Rs 19,585 crore from January to September 2023. The FMCG sector saw cyclical FPI investments: an inflow of Rs 12,386 crore from March to July 2023, followed by an outflow of Rs 4,403 crore in August and September 2023, influenced by El Niño conditions and worries about rural consumption.

    In the capital goods sector, FPIs were net buyers from February to September 2023, with an investment of Rs 34,184 crore. However, they shifted gears in September 2023, turning net sellers with a total outflow of Rs 14,764 crore.

    FPIs invest the most in financial services and auto 

    Looking at these trends a little more closely, we start with the financial services sector, which kicked  off the year on a low note. FPIs withdrew Rs 15,204 crore from the sector in January 2023 due to concerns over its exposure to Adani Group companies. 

    However, this soon reversed, with FPIs investing Rs 36,292 crore in the sector in 2023. Despite global challenges since March 2023, India's financial sector has remained stable with continuous growth in bank credit, falling non-performing assets, and high capital and liquidity reserves. 

    The capital goods sector ranks among the highest in FPI inflows for the year, drawing an investment of Rs 34,098 crore. This increase can be attributed to a 12% YoY growth in the order books for the top 30 engineering and construction (E&C) firms, reaching $161 billion in Q1FY24. This expansion was largely driven by substantial orders from the railway and road construction sectors due to an infra capex boost of 33% in the FY24 government budget. 

    Next is automobiles, attracting Rs 25,941 crore of net FPI investment from January to September 2023. According to Geojit, the Indian automobile industry is rebounding after a five-year slump, observing an uptick in passenger vehicle volumes and a recovery in commercial vehicle sales. 

    The consumer services sector isn't far behind, registering an inflow of Rs 9,837 crore till September 2023 since the start of 2023. The sector has risen 24.2% in the past six months. 

    The once-upbeat IT sector has struggled, with a net FPI outflow of Rs 9,805 crore this year due to recession fears in its key markets, North America and Europe. However, there was a small revival with an investment of Rs 1,886 crore in September 2023. 

    The power sector saw a net FPI outflow of Rs 9,731 crore in September 2023 due to profit-booking, as stocks like Power Grid Corp and Bharat Heavy Electricals hit record highs. The rise was due to a report by the Power Ministry stating that India’s power demand touched an all-time high of 234 GW on August 17 2023. Additionally, the centre plans to expand its thermal energy capacity by 25 GW to 30 GW.

    FPIs are currently positive on the healthcare sector with a net investment of Rs 8,712 crore from April to September 2023. On the other hand, the FMCG sector had a net buying of Rs 6,832 crore YTD. According to Nuvama, this is due to falling input prices that led to rising margins from March to July 2023.

    Lastly, the oil and gas sector saw a net selling of Rs 19,585 crore this year. Market volatility due to OPEC sanctions and geopolitical factors, such as supply chain disruptions due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, played a significant role in this trend. Brent Crude futures have risen by 9.2% YTD. 

    Mutual funds mirror FPI focus on banking & finance

    J B Chemicals leads in MF investment, while Camlin tops in outflow

    Domestic investors have also shown clear preferences over the past month, as Indian markets turned volatile. According to a Trendlyne screener, MFs invested the most in banking & finance (26 companies) followed by the auto sector (10 companies). Within  banking & finance, Power Finance Corp saw the most significant spike in MF investment, surging by 350 basis points MoM. The stock recently made headlines for issuing a loan of Rs 1,229 crore to Assam Petrochemicals and rose 10% in the past month. 

    On the other hand, another screener tracking the highest outflows by DIIs highlights a steep decline in MF holdings for Camlin Fine Sciences, dropping 190 basis points in the past month.

    While FPIs pulled out of power stocks, MFs strengthened their positions in companies like Power Grid Corp. It saw a 360 basis points rise in MF holdings in the past month. Meanwhile, DIIs scaled down investments in consumer services stocks such as Krsnaa Diagnostics by 70 basis points in the past month.

    J B Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals’ MF holdings increased by 15.4 percentage points over the same period. This increase is due to the pharma company receiving US FDA approval for manufacturing and marketing the generic Doxepin Hydrochloride capsules on August 23, 2023. Mutual funds like Axis Growth Opportunities Fund, NJ Flexi Cap Fund, Invesco India and HSBC Small Cap were the leading investors in the stock. 

    Defence player Hindustan Aeronautics also saw a 6.8 percentage point MoM rise in MF holdings. The company’s order book, at Rs 81,784 crore as of July 2023, was aided by the centre's private indigenisation list. Restaurant Brands Asia, a restaurant player, also had a 5.3 percentage point surge in MF investments over the past month.

    Despite FPIs funnelling Rs 763 crore into real estate companies, MFs reduced exposure to  Phoenix Mills by 90 basis points. Similarly, banking & finance stocks like MCX and IDFC also saw declines in MF holdings, falling by 120 basis points and 140 basis points respectively in the past month

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