ACC Ltd. share price target

Revenue growth strong (~17% YoY), driven by realisations gains (~9% YoY). Premium share improved to 45% vs 41% YoY

With the proposed merger of ACC Ltd into Ambuja Cements Ltd, ACC’s share price is expected to align with Ambuja’s implied valuation based on the swap ratio of 328:100, indicating an arbitrage opportunity of ~4% at the current market price.

ACC’s 4QFY26 earnings were below our estimates. EBITDA declined ~23% YoY to INR6.2b (~22% miss). EBITDA/t fell ~28% YoY to INR518 (est. INR605). OPM contracted 4.5pp YoY to ~9% (-3pp vs. our estimate).

ACC posted modest single-digit revenue growth during the quarter. Also, higher cost of sales compressed margins and reduced net profit. That said, the company's amalgamation with Ambuja Cements is expected to considerably improve manufacturing and logistics efficiency and streamline operations, enabling more effective capital allocation and faster decision-making. Also, the Union Budget 202627 raised the government's infrastructure outlay, which is projected to support the company's growth going forward as well. In addition, strong demand, supportive policies, robust consumer spending and increasing strategic investment are...

ACC’s 3QFY26 EBITDA grew ~45% YoY to INR6.9b (~8% below our estimate due to lower-than-estimated realization/t).

ACC reported revenue of INR 59,317 Mn in Q2FY26, up 28.6% YoY but down 2.6% QoQ, reflecting continued market share gains despite the seasonal monsoon impact. Growth was driven by a 16% YoY volume increase to 10.0 Mn tons, improved realizations, and stronger premium cement mix.

ACC reported a strong EBITDA growth of ~91% YoY to INR8.2b in 2QFY26 (37% above our estimate, led by higher volume and lower opex/t vs. our estimate).

We have revised our estimates for FY26E/FY27E EBITDA by -2.3%/-6.1%, respectively, as we factor in more gradual normalization of the elevated cost structure.

ACC reduced its kiln fuel costs by 10% by optimising its fuel mix, using cheaper imported petcoke, and improving the coal supply chain and partnerships with other companies in the group. As a result, fuel cost per unit of energy decreased from...

Revenue driven by 13% YoY volume jump to 11.5mnt (down 3.3% QoQ), backed by realisations gain of 4% YoY/QoQ to Rs 4,970/tn

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

ACC’s 1QFY26 EBITDA missed our estimate due to lower blended realization/t and higher opex/t. EBITDA increased ~14% YoY to INR7.7b (10% miss).

ACC reported weak operating performance in Q1FY26 despite strong volume growth and higher realizations. Volumes grew 12.7% YoY on higher trade volume aided by MSA and strong growth in premium products. Average cement NSR grew 4% QoQ led by price recovery in Southern and Eastern markets since Mar'25. EBITDA/t grew just 2% YoY affected by higher RM costs (purchase of finished goods up 79% YoY). Improved fuel mix, lower fuel prices, greater adoption of green energy (26%), and increased volumes led to a 24% YoY reduction in power and fuel costs; while shorter lead distances and a rise in...

Q4FY25 revenue grew 11% YoY as a strong volume of 14% was offset by 3% fall in realisation, on weak pricing in key operating regions

ACC reported robust operating performance in 4QFY25 aided by strong volume growth and improved NSR. Volumes grew 14% YoY to 11.9mt aided by higher trade volume and better growth in premium products (7% YoY). Average MSA and traded volumes, all other costs have been constrained. Optimization of the fuel basket, lower fuel costs, increased use of Green share, and higher volumes led to a 22% YoY decline in P&F costs. Reduction in lead distance and higher direct dispatch resulted in a 9% YoY decline in freight costs. Strong operating leverage contributed to an 18% YoY decline in Other Expenses. These...

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

We change our rating from HOLD to BUY on the recent correction in stock price.

We maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock