By Swapnil KarkareI don’t want to sound like that building uncle (I haven’t reached the ‘uncle’ age yet) who complains about the modern world and “kids these days”.
But I have to say, life was a lot simpler for Indian consumers a few years ago. At least, it felt that way. Let's take this cup of tea, simmering by my side while I type. A cup of tea was black tea powder, milk and sugar. Dessert meant a sizzling brownie or gajar halwa. “Skincare? What’s that?”men would ask. But in the last few years, and especially after Covid, things have changed.
Now, tea can be green, fifty kinds of herbal, black, iced. Milk can be low-fat, lactose-free, A2, or oat and nut-based varieties. In addition to the usual Indian desserts, we have to resist gelato, baklava, tiramisu, parfait. And skincare? It’s a full-blown daily routine with people casually dropping names like paraben, niacinamide, and hyaluronic as if they are talking about apples, mangoes and bananas. Every decision feels complicated.
The market is all about wellness, quality and experimentation. Whether it’s food, clothes, cars, or home décor, we’re seeking premium and niche products and services.
Remember when Uber offered its ill-fated Mercedes taxi rides in India, via Uber Black? It didn’t appeal to enough customers, and Uber discontinued it in 2014. Earlier this year, Dara Khosrowshahi, the company’s CEO said, 'Indians are extremely demanding, but are not willing to pay for anything'.
But now, Uber’s premium service is growing at a much faster rate than its budget rides. That has prompted the company to bring Uber Black back. So perhaps enough Indians are willing to pay.
As India gets wealthier, a significant number of people are upgrading their lifestyle, and firms are getting on board fast to cater to them.
In this week's Analyticks:
Going premium: The rise of the 'discerning' Indian customer
Screener: Rising stocks where Forecaster expects a high target price upside in the next 12 months
Indian pockets are getting deeper
Goldman Sachs recently noted that India’s affluent class–people earning above $10,000 (equivalent to Rs. 8.3 lakhs) per annum–rose in the last couple of decades. It jumped from 20 million in 2011 to 60 million in 2023, and accounts for 4.1% of the total population. GS expects this to reach 100 million by 2027.
People Research on India’s Consumer Economy (PRICE) expects the middle-class to increase to 61% of the total population by 2047, from 31% in 2021. The combo of upward income mobility, more choices, better tech and economic growth has already upgraded the lives of many Indians. It's visible across different pockets of the country, including smaller towns and villages.
Plus, we have access to global trends, thanks to the internet. We are not just comparing our house to the people next door. Instead we are discussing the viral kitchen renovation we saw online.
Food brands react to premiumisation and rising health awareness
A positive fallout from Covid, if any, has been rising health awareness. It started with at-home workouts and better food habits. Consumers are now spending more on healthier options, and companies have noticed.
Parag Milk Foods which owns a popular dairy products brand, Govardhan, also operates a premium brand called ‘Pride of Cows’, known for single-source and organic dairy products. In 2020, it forayed into premium curd and ghee.
Tata Consumer acquired Soulfull, a health-focused millet cereals company, in 2021, and Organic India, Fabindia’s herbal tea brand, in 2024. Amul has launched a high-protein segment selling milk at Rs. 396 a litre, which is seven times the price of the Amul Taaza pouch.
Hindustan Unilever (HUL) has launched over 70% of its new products in the premium segment in the last two years while Parle has shifted 60-65% of its new launches to the premium segment, up from 40% pre-Covid. Premium products now account for 25% of total sales for HUL, up by 300 basis points (bps) in the last three years and 12% for Nestle, up by 150 bps over last five years.
Tapping high-end consumers in fashion
“Premiumisation gives us better realisation,” Shailesh Chaturvedi, Arvind Fashions’ MD & CEO says. That’s how the company managed to improve its gross margins by 80 bps last quarter. In the previous quarter, sales of Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail (ABFRL)’s luxury segment and AjioLuxe, Reliance Retail’s online luxury shopping platform, jumped 18% and 39% YoY, respectively. Shoppers Stop’s premium brands now account for 57% of total sales, up from 54% last year.
People are becoming picky about the labels they wear, thanks to influencer marketing, global exposure and rising aspirations. Google Trends shows folks getting increasingly curious about premium products – checking out reviews, buying something because their friends or colleagues have it.
Brands are figuring out how to market high-end products to mid-premium customers. This is especially crucial in a weak season, as these consumers are less sensitive to downturns, and companies can offset lower sales in the budget segment with higher margins on premium items. India’s luxury fashion revenue is projected to cross $1.5 billion in 2024, compared to $11 billion in China and $28 billion in the US.
'Premium' is becoming a whole lifestyle
Once we have fancier clothes, taking care of them means more spending. We switch from semi-automatic machines to fully automatic, from powder soap to liquids, and fabric conditioner. This has benefited the likes of P&G and HUL. India's Electronic stores are complaining that semi-automatic washing machines have become a slow-moving inventory.
It doesn’t stop here. We need everything a notch up: accessories, skincare, shoes, phones, homes, cars and so on. Surveys shows that more Indians especially prefer buying premium in 'visible luxury' categories like smartphones, clothes, shoes, and laptops.
Banks vie for affluent customers
Recently, SBI announced it would hire 2000 executives to revive its wealth management arm and attract wealthy clients. Similarly, Axis Bank has expanded its wealth management business Burgundy Private, to Tier II and III cities.
HDFC Bank has launched the BizBlack Metal Edition Credit Card this year to tap self-employed and business people. Such premium metal credit cards have become a status symbol. A few years ago, only a few big banks offered them. But in the last few years, IndusInd Bank, IDFC First Bank, Yes Bank and AU Small Finance Bank have entered this segment.
Credit cards in general are gaining popularity as more Indians indulge in high-end shopping and air travel. The allure of loyalty points, deep discounts, and lounge access is driving growth. As of July 2024, Indians hold around 10.5 crore credit cards. In the last one year, the number of outstanding cards have increased by 16%, the transaction value has jumped 19% while the number of transactions have spiked by 38%.
Impact on industrial goods
The rise of luxury products has also affected other sectors, boosting the demand for better-quality raw materials and intermediary products. For example, rising sales of sports utility vehicles (SUVs), electric vehicles (EVs) and luxury cars have benefitted the auto components industry.
Strong demand for 3BHK, 4BHK and luxury homes means better quality cement and construction materials. Cement companies data reinforce this trend. Star Cement registered its highest-ever sales of premium cement in Q1 FY25 (9% of total sales). Dalmia Bharat continues to improve its premium share from 11% in FY19 to 21% in FY24 while that of Nuvoco Vistas from 34% in FY22 to 37% in FY24.
Take Apar Industries, the world’s largest aluminium and alloy conductor manufacturer. The company leads in premium quality conductors and cables used in various sectors like renewables, power, railways, EVs, etc. In the last three years, the volume of those conductors has grown by 37% CAGR while that of cables by 48%. That’s because its clients are shifting to better quality products.
At the end, consumers are better taken care of
While I may complain about having to take so many decisions about the smallest things, it's clear that premiumization helps both businesses and consumers. But going back into 'uncle' mode - the trend also highlights the widening gap between the rich and the poor. The premium segment is still very small, even if it's fast growing.
There is an expectation however, that India's GDP growth, combined with more effective social programs, will bring more Indians into this aspirational demographic. As India continues to grow, we can expect this trend to gain ground across industries.
Screener: Rising stocks where Forecaster expects a high target price upside in the next 12 months
Fashion & lifestyle stocks see high target price upside by Forecaster
The Indian markets have been trading flat over the past week, with the Nifty 50 index rising by just 0.5%. In this environment, we look at FMCG, consumer durables, food and fashion & lifestyle stocks which have risen over the past month with a high target price upside by Trendlyne’s Forecaster. This screener shows rising stocks where Forecaster expects stock prices to gain in the next 12 months.
Notable stocks that appear in the screener are Sai Silks (Kalamandir), Raymond, Electronics Mart India, Eureka Forbes, La Opala RG, Pitti Engineering, EID Parry (India), and Arvind.
Raymond features in the screener due to its 53.3% target price upside expected by Trendlyne’s Forecaster in the next 12 months. Analysts like Motilal Oswal believe that the textile company’s de-merger of its real estate and engineering businesses will help carve out individual growth strategies for both businesses. According to the broker, the company has created strong value by selling its FMCG business, demerging the lifestyle business, and setting up an engineering unit ‘Newco’ after the MPPL acquisition. The demerger of the lifestyle business has also helped the company’s stock price to rise by 7.9% over the past month.
Electronics Mart India comes next with a Forecaster estimated target price upside of 25% in the next 12 months. According to Anand Rathi, this specialty retail company’s revenue will grow on the back of volume growth. It expects the company to increase its profitability, driven by optimising store operations and improving inventory management.
You can find some popular screeners here.
