426.00 10.35 (2.49%)
NSENov 26, 2020 03:31 PM
The 21 reports from 8 analysts offering long term price targets for Emami Ltd. have an average target of 370.13. The consensus estimate represents a downside of -13.12% from the last price of 426.00.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2020-11-09||Emami Ltd. +||Axis Direct||378.50||413.00||378.50 (12.55%)||-3.05||Buy|
|2020-11-08||Emami Ltd. +||Motilal Oswal||378.50||440.00||378.50 (12.55%)||3.29||Buy|
Emami (HMN) posted a beat on all fronts in its 2QFY21 results. Importantly, (a) strengthening rural growth (50% of HMN's sales), (b) extremely strong health and hygiene sales, (c) initial good winter demand, and (d) the low winter season sales base of last year augur well for sales and earnings growth over the next few quarters. We remain bullish on the stock, despite two primary concerns. (a) The likely delay in pledge reduction to zero (earlier targeted by Mar'21; currently at ~40% levels) is disappointing. (b) There is no evidence of a structural...
|2020-11-07||Emami Ltd. +||Nirmal Bang Institutional||378.50||400.00||378.50 (12.55%)||-6.10||Accumulate|
Emami Ltd - 2QFY21 Result Update - Strong margins delivered; similar performance expected in near term
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Strong margins delivered; similar performance expected in near term Emami's 2QFY21 consolidated revenue grew by 11.3% YoY to Rs7.35bn (vs our est. 8.6% growth to Rs7.17bn). EBITDA grew by 33.2% YoY to Rs2.57bn (vs our est. 11.4% growth to Rs2.15bn). PAT before amortization grew by 32.3% YoY to Rs2.12bn (vs our est. 6.1% growth to Rs1.7bn). Reported PAT grew by 23.5% YoY to Rs1.18bn (vs our est. Rs1.45bn) due to revision in useful life of Intangible assets related to acquired Brands and Trademarks from 10 years to 7 years, resulting in an increase in amortisation by Rs662.85mn for the quarter. Domestic business grew by 13% YoY, led by 10% YoY volume growth (in-line with expectation). Winter portfolio had a high base due to pipeline filling in the...
|2020-11-06||Emami Ltd. +||Dolat Capital||370.95||409.00||370.95 (14.84%)||-3.99||Accumulate|
Emami's Q2FY21 results came ahead of our estimates. Domestic business jumped 13%, while IB posted 11% revenue growth in Q2. Ex-winter products (88% contri) reported 28% growth was encouraging performance. Kesh King and Pain management range recorded highest ever quarterly sales during the quarter....
|2020-11-06||Emami Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||378.50||450.00||378.50 (12.55%)||5.63||Buy|
We are changing FY21/22/23 EPS estimates by 9.3%, 1.1% and -3.6% and increase target price to Rs450 @26xSept21 EPS (Rs419 earlier, valuing at 25xJune22EPS). We believe Emami is in a sweet spot given 1) highest rural salience at 55% of sales 2) early onset of winter and low base for winter...
|2020-10-06||Emami Ltd. +||Sharekhan||348.60||440.00||348.60 (22.20%)||3.29||Buy|
|2020-08-10||Emami Ltd. +||Axis Direct||307.10||325.00||307.10 (38.72%)||Target met||Buy|
|2020-08-08||Emami Ltd. +||Nirmal Bang Institutional||307.10||285.00||307.10 (38.72%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Margin beat led by sharp cut in Ad spends; July sales looking better Emami's 1QFY21 consolidated revenue declined by 25.8% YoY to Rs4.8bn (vs our est. 28% decline to Rs4.7bn). EBITDA declined by just 8.3% YoY to Rs1.2bn (vs our est. 59.5% decline to Rs544mn). PAT before amortization declined by 7.3% YoY to Rs950mn (vs our est. 66.2% decline to Rs346mn). Reported PAT grew by 1% YoY to Rs396mn (vs our est. Rs254mn loss). Domestic business declined by 26% YoY due to volume decline of ~28% YoY. International and CSD businesses declined by 18% and 38% YoY, respectively. Healthcare, Pain management and Boroplus range grew by 23%, 15% and 28% YoY, respectively while Navratna, Kesh King and Male grooming range declined by 41%, 33% and 70% YoY,...
|2020-08-07||Emami Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||324.90||419.00||324.90 (31.12%)||-1.64||Buy|
600mn savings from cost rationalization measures in FY21. Emami 1Q results were better due to 29% growth in Zandu and Boroplus even as rest of the portfolio was under pressure and declined 44%. Sales are bouncing back with double digit growth in July and outlook is improving led by strong demand for Immunity boosters, revival in Kesh king and Pain Mgt. Emami will also gain from low base in 2H21 and benign input costs. Although we would watch out for success of planned launches, we model 8.8% growth in sales and 11% in EBIDTA and 17.2% in PAT over FY20-23. We value the...
|2020-07-02||Emami Ltd. +||Sharekhan||224.60||240.00||224.60 (89.67%)||Target met||Hold|
Emami Limited's (Emami's) Q4FY2020 performance was below our as well as street expectation with revenue and PAT declining by ~17% and ~25%, respectively, during the quarter. Lockdown at the end of the quarter affected pre-season sales of the summer portfolio, resulting in a sharp decline of 19% in domestic revenue (international business decreased by just 4%). Post acquiring required approvals, the company started manufacturing essential products from April 10, 2020, and gradually scaled up its operations to 100% in some of its plants. Trade and supply chain have normalised in few...
|2020-06-30||Emami Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||220.80||207.00||220.80 (92.93%)||Target met||Sell|
We value Emami at 17x on FY22E EPS and arrive at a TP of Rs 207. Maintain REDUCE. Emami's 4QFY20 performance was disappointing as the co registered a 17% yoy decline in consolidated revenues. Boroplus, Male Grooming and Kesh King saw sharp revenue decline of 77/42/26% yoy. 4Q performance was impacted by weak category growth (even prior to Covid-19) and lockdown. Emami continued to gain market share in most of its portfolio. Co could not react fast enough to cut costs, resulting in EBITDA contraction of 36% yoy with EBITDAM declining by 569bps yoy. Co is now focusing on strategic launches and relaunches in hygiene and healthcare to drive revenue growth. Benign commodity inflation and expected savings of Rs 500-600mn from cost saving initiatives in FY21 could see margins expand for the co. However, Emami's portfolio is discretionary in nature and we expect recovery will take slightly longer than other FMCG cos. Hence, we cut EPS estimate by 6% for FY21E/FY22E.
|2020-06-30||Emami Ltd. +||Chola Wealth Direct||229.90||202.00||229.90 (85.30%)||52.58||Sell|
Chola Wealth Direct
Background: Emami is a FMCG company with niche focus on relatively under penetrated segments such as antiseptic cream, fairness cream, talcum powder, cooling oil, pain balm and pain reliever. Emami's power brands such as Navratna Oil, Boroplus Cream, Zandu & MenthoPlus Balm, Fair & Handsome, Boroplus Powder, Navratna Cool Talc, Fast Relief, SonaChandi & Zandu accounts for 75% of company's sales. Emami sales have grown at a CAGR of 38.5% (FY2010-20)....
|2020-06-30||Emami Ltd. +||Nirmal Bang Institutional||227.95||215.00||227.95 (86.88%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Promoter pledge overhang receding; all eyes now on operations Emami's 4QFY20 consolidated revenue declined by 16.8% YoY to Rs5.3bn (vs our est. 1.7% decline to Rs6.3bn). EBITDA declined by 36.6%YoY to Rs985mn (vs our est. 0.7% decline to Rs1.5bn). PAT before amortization declined by 21.2% to Rs941mn (vs our est. 7.9% growth to Rs1.3bn). Reported PAT declined by 55.4% to Rs234mn (vs our est. Rs667mn). Domestic business (including institutional) declined by 19% YoY for the quarter due to domestic volume declining by 19-20%. Revenue growth was affected by weak rural demand prior to the lockdown and followed by the supply chain disruption midMarch due to lockdown affecting the pre-season sales of the summer portfolio. Navratna, Pain management, Boroplus, Kesh King, Healthcare and Male grooming range declined by 12%, 5%, 77%,...
|2020-06-29||Emami Ltd. +||Dolat Capital||224.60||241.00||224.60 (89.67%)||Target met||Buy|
|2020-06-29||Emami Ltd. +||Motilal Oswal||220.80||245.00||220.80 (92.93%)||Target met||Buy|
HMN recorded sales decline in most of the categories in YoY), Healthcare (-9% YoY), Male Grooming (-42% YoY), and BoroPlus (- 77%). Sales / EBITDA / Adj. PAT has witnessed a ~5% CAGR or lower for five years now, which is particularly disappointing given HMNs smaller size v/s highest domestic sales proportion among peers at around 50%), b) the announcement on the call that the group cement business sale would be concluded within the next fortnight, thereby sharply removing the pledge, and c) inexpensive valuations of 16x FY22 EPS. The company maintained leadership with volume market share at 66.4% as of MAT Dec19 The Male Grooming range declined 42% in 4QFY20 and 29% in FY20. Sales / EBITDA / Adj. PAT reported a ~5% CAGR or lower for five years now, which is particularly disappointing given HMNs smaller size v/s.
|2020-02-28||Emami Ltd. +||Motilal Oswal||258.45||310.00||258.45 (64.83%)||Target met||Buy|
28 February 2020 Demand is yet to pick up after weakening in the December quarter for both the company and the sector. Sales growth in many of HMNs key categories has been impacted in recent years due to rural slowdown (52% rural dependency), liquidity crunch (~40% wholesale contribution) and category growth issue (majorly problem-solving portfolio and not everyday use products with the former getting affected more in a weak demand situation). Demand environment remains bleak, similar to the December quarter when things had worsened sequentially and YoY for both Management appeared hopeful in the third-quarter post results call that up-stocking will happen in products like Navratna oil ahead of the summer season (usually begins in mid- Feb). However, even toward end-February, sales have not picked up owing to extended winter in several parts of the country. The problem solving nature of HMNs products and not everyday use has also affected offtake in a weak demand environment.
|2020-02-10||Emami Ltd. +||Nirmal Bang Institutional||293.25||330.00||293.25 (45.27%)||Target met||Accumulate|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Emami's 3QFY20 consolidated revenues were flat YoY at Rs. 8.1bn (vs our est. 2% growth to Rs. 8.27bn). EBITDA grew by 0.2%YoY to Rs. 2.6bn (vs our est. 0.7% decline to Rs. 2.6bn). PAT before amortization grew by 3.1% to Rs. 2.15bn (vs our est. 3.9% growth to Rs. 2.17bn). Reported PAT grew by 4.9% to Rs. 1.44bn (vs our est. Rs. 1.55bn). Domestic business declined by ~2% YoY during the quarter with volumes down 2%. While overall volumes declined by 1% in the quarter. Revenue growth was impacted by underperformance of winter portfolio (down 13% YoY) and sharp decline in male grooming business (down 39% YoY) during the quarter. 60% of the portfolio (excluding the winter portfolio and Male grooming range) grew by 10 % in volume and by 13% in value in 3QFY20. Pain management,...
|2020-02-08||Emami Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||300.30||445.00||300.30 (41.86%)||4.46||Buy|
Emami's underperformance over the last 3 years has not been caused by competitive intensity rather its own challenges like (1) High wholesale dependence, (2) Core brands' dependence on seasonality, (3) Limited portfolio for premiumisation and (4) Pledge related disturbance. The company has made some progress in the last 2 years in diversifying its distribution from wholesale (~38% mix now vs. 52% earlier) to modern trade (9-10% mix now vs. 4% earlier) and direct reach (0.95mn stores vs. 0.63mn earlier). Besides, stake sale in Emami cement, will reduce the promoter pledge in Emami to ~25% vs. 72%. It will ease the pressure on promoters and will result in renewed strategy to revive domestic business. We remain bullish on Emami, given favorable risk-reward and potential rebound in domestic business. Emamis 3Q was muted across the board, with flashes of outperformance. Domestic business was impacted by delayed winter and persistent weakness in male grooming. However, 60% of domestic business (ex-winter portfolio and male grooming) posted 13/10% val/vol growth. Emami Group also sealed the sale of its stake in the Cement biz in Feb-20, which will significantly reduce promoter pledge. As a result, increased focus by the promoters on the domestic biz can fill the required gaps in domestic business in FY21. We value Emami at 30x on Dec-21E EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 445. Maintain BUY.
|2020-02-08||Emami Ltd. +||Motilal Oswal||293.25||355.00||293.25 (45.27%)||Target met||Buy|
Domestic volumes and revenue declined 2% YoY, while the international HMN recorded higher sales in Kesh King (+ 18% YoY), Navratna (+11% YoY), 7 Oils in One (+66% YoY), Pain Management (+13% YoY) and Healthcare (+4% YoY), but a decline in Male Grooming (-39% YoY) Rural segment is still under stress. However, the sharp reduction of pledge earlier this week after the sale of the group cement business and inexpensive valuations of 21.2x/18.6x FY21/22E EPS lead us to maintain Buy with a TP of INR355 (18% upside). BoroPlus Ayurvedic Antiseptic cream volume market share expanded by 120bp Pain management range grew by 13% in 3QFY20 and 5% in 9MFY20. Kesh King sales range grew by 18% in 3QFY20 and by 12% in 9MFY20. However, the sharp reduction of pledge earlier this week after the sale of the group cement business and inexpensive valuations of 21.2x/18.6x FY21/22E EPS.
|2020-02-07||Emami Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||293.25||293.25 (45.27%)||Accumulate|
Emami's outlook remain muted given 1) tepid consumer demand 2) structural issues in Male grooming and Pancharishta 3) untimely inventory push for non-winter products. A lot depends upon the timely onset of summer and trade inventory buildup for Navratna in 4Q. We remain cautious on Emami on 1) low growth in key categories like premium hair oil, male skin creams and Pancharishtha 2) slowdown in rural demand given high dependence (54-55%) and 3) limited success in categories beyond traditional strongholds. Benign input costs are likely to support...