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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    15 Nov 2024
    Superstar investors turn cautious, shuffle their portfolios | Screener: Stocks in the PE buy zone with high target price upsides

    Superstar investors turn cautious, shuffle their portfolios | Screener: Stocks in the PE buy zone with high target price upsides

    By Tejas MD

    Indian equity markets initially celebrated Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential race, rising 1.1% on Nov 6—only to take a sharp U-turn the next day, falling 1.2% as investors took a closer look at his policy plans, which include aggressive tariffs on imports.  Trump in his first term was a temperamental head of state, and he has already complained about India's trade policies: "India is very big with tariffs". Investors are in wait and watch mode this time around.

    Indian markets have been moody since September 26. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) kicked off a historical selling spree, dragging indices downward. Amid the turbulence, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have emerged as the market’s backbone, stepping in with record-breaking purchases and mitigating the slide.

    But, there are still worrying signs. Inflation has been simmering since July, and may have now boiled over.

    In October, India’s CPI inflation rose 6.21%, surpassing the expected 5.8% due to high food inflation. 

    Indian superstar investors were wary of rising markets and soaring valuations in Q1FY25. And in hindsight, they may have made the right decision. The same caution is visible in Q2, as these investors slowed the pace of investments and sold considerably more than they bought. 

    Which hidden gems did superstar investors bet on? And which sectors are they worried about? 

    In this week’s Analyticks,

    • Superstar investors get picky in their investments
    • Screener: Stocks in the PE buy zone with high durability scores and price upsides

    Let’s dive in.


    Superstar investors shuffle their portfolios, trim stakes

    Superstar investors made strategic portfolio changes in Q2FY25, with selling activity once again outpacing buying.

    Many top superstar investors saw their net worth decline (as of November 11), as recent shareholding data for Q2FY25 came in. The drop is from volatility in key holdings, and strategic selling across multiple companies. 

    Notably, the net worth of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and Associates (now managed by Rare Enterprises), Ashish Kacholia, and Dolly Khanna fell by over 10% as of Nov 11.

    Major superstar investors see net worth fall in Q3 after major sells

    Vijay Kedia stands out with a 9.4% net worth increase, driven by strong gains in his top holdings—Tejas Networks and Neuland Laboratories—which rose over 20% in the past month. 

    Dolly Khanna’s portfolio suffered the largest decline, falling 22.3%, as she reduced her stake in several companies, and with her top holding, Chennai Petroleum Corp, experiencing a 31% drop.

    Rare Enterprises also saw its portfolio fall, primarily due to stake reductions. Of the 27 stocks in the portfolio, 17 saw a reduction, with Tata Motors and Baazar Style Retail being the only ones where Jhunjhunwala's stake increased.

    Stocks sold by superstar investors outnumber the new buys

    Overall, superstar investors appear cautious, showing restraint in both new acquisitions and increasing stakes in existing holdings. Top investors trimmed stakes in 91 companies while adding to just 37. 

    Ace investor Sunil Singhania, for instance, refrained from buying new stocks or increasing his stake in any company, instead reducing holdings in 13 out of 22 companies.

    New stakes: Superstars pick financially strong and newly listed companies

    Two major themes come to light when looking into the buy list of superstars – strong financials and newly listed companies. 

    Barring E2E Networks and ASM Technologies, all other companies’ Trendlyne Durability score is in the ‘Good’ category. A high Durability score indicates consistently good financial performance: stable revenues, profits, cash flows and low debt. Newly listed companies that don’t have durability scores are not included in this list.

    Superstar investors are buying rising stocks with good financial health

    20 Microns and POCL Enterprises top the list with a durability score of 90. When overall DVM scores are considered, POCL Enterprises and Emkay Global Financial Services come out on top as they score a ‘Good’ rating across all three metrics, making them both ‘Strong Performers’. Interestingly, these three top-scoring stocks were added by Dolly Khanna to her portfolio in Q2. 

    Even the big investors got sucked into the IPO frenzy in Q2 

    One major theme among the buys is superstar investors picking newly listed companies, as the IPO frenzy continues in India, especially the Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) segment. 

    Out of 19 new buys, six are newly listed companies. Only Baazar Style and Stanley Lifestyles were Main Line IPOs among these six newly listed stocks. 

    All six companies listed in the green, with TAC Infosech’s listing gains at 187.3%. But here’s the kicker - four out of these six companies have fallen in the past quarter, with TBI Corn declining 32.7%. Volatility in the market has affected newly listed companies as well. 

    Superstar investors’ new buys in IPOs lag in the past quarter after listing above issue price

    The top performer here is Vijay Kedia’s SME stock, TAC Infosec. This software and services company has risen 47.2% in the volatile past quarter. 

    A focus on performance: Superstar investors sell overvalued, underperforming small and mid-caps

    A major theme across the sell list by superstars is that these stocks are either in the sell zone (trading higher than their historical PEs) or are underperforming the Nifty 50 in the past quarter. 

    Only three companies among the 19 sells are in the PE buy zone - Arvind Fashions (Sold by Akash Bhanshali), Mitsu Chem Plast (sold by Porinju Veliyath) and Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (sold by Dolly Khanna). 

    Most stocks sold by superstar investors trade in PE Sell Zone

    Interestingly, all stocks sold were small or mid-cap companies. In addition, half of the stocks sold have underperformed the benchmark index in the past quarter. 

    Textiles sector dominates the superstar sell list 

    Textiles apparel & accessories and commercial services & supplies sectors dominate the sell list, followed by chemicals & petrochemicals.

    The sells list also includes a loss-making company (negative net profit TTM) - Deepak Spinners. 

    Vijay Kedia’s 2020 bet Tejas Networks stands out 

    When we look at long-term bets by these superstars, Vijay Kedia’s Tejas Networks and Mukul Agrawal's Neuland Labs come out on top. Tejas Networks and Neuland Labs contribute 2.5% and 7.9% of their portfolios respectively. 

    Best performing long-term holdings: Kedia’s Tejas Networks, Mukul Agrawal's Neuland Labs


    Interestingly, high-performing Neuland Labs is Kedia’s third-largest holding as well, leading to a sharp rise in Kedia’s portfolio over the past two years.

    Bhanshali’s Gujarat Fluorochemicals (32% of total holding value) and Khanna’s Chennai Petroleum Corp (22% of total holding value) on the other hand, are lagging since they bought these stocks. However, Bhanshali's net worth has almost tripled in the past two years due to high performance in their other holdings and fresh buys in new stocks. 


    Screener: Stocks in the PE buy zone with high durability scores and target price upsides

    Auto stocks have the highest Forecaster target price upside

    In the current volatile market environment, where the Nifty 50 has fallen 3.4% over the past month, we look at stocks in the buy zone with strong durability and high target price upside. This screener shows technically strong stocks with high durability scores and target price upside.

    Stocks from the automobile & auto components, FMCG, software & services, and cement & construction sectors appear in the screener. The most noticeable stocks in the screener are Signatureglobal (India), Tata Motors, Emami, EIH, Motherson Sumi Wiring India, 3M India, ACC, and Quess Corp.

    Tata Motors has one of the highest Forecaster target price upsides, of 38.6% over the next 12 months. But the stock has declined by 27.6% over the past quarter due to lower retail sales. This cars & utility vehicles company has a good Trendlyne Durability score of 85 and a Piotroski score of 8, indicating still healthy financials. ICICI Direct believes that the company’s healthy margins, return ratios, and low leverage on the balance sheet will help in long-term growth.

    Emami also features in the screener with a Forecaster target price upside of 26.6% over the next 12 months. This personal products company also has a good Trendlyne Durability score of 80 and a Piotroski score of 9. Anand Rathi expects the company’s growth trajectory to continue on the back of a niche product portfolio, leading market position, recovery in rural sales (50-55% of total revenue), improvement in distribution, direct-to-consumer (D2C) brands, and digital ventures. Emami has also struggled in the volatile market, and its price has fallen 17.3% over the past quarter, underperforming the FMCG sector by 8.2 percentage points.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    14 Nov 2024

    Major countries shift right in 2024 elections

    By Aditi Priya

    Elections took place this year in countries representing nearly half of the world’s population. From Taiwan’s January general election to the US presidential race in November, these pivotal votes came amid climate change, inflation, and global economic and geopolitical tensions. Key issues shaping the political landscape include the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, conflicts in the Middle East, and trade friction between the US and China, the two largest economies.

    In 2024, there has been a noticeable rise in far-right parties. Right-wing governments often emphasize traditional values, reduced government regulation, and lower immigration. This year saw numerous countries undergo political changes, with new leaders or governments adopting these ideologies. These shifts suggest the rise of policies that challenge the existing global political order.

    Modi and Trump’s wins reflect rising rightward movements in India and the US

    Narendra Modi’s win in the June election secured his third term as Prime Minister, extending the BJP's leadership, but with a smaller majority. The continuity is expected to shape India's economic policies, and its approach to global issues, including climate change and trade. Donald Trump’s recent victory in the US elections highlights that this trend of populist, right-wing leaders winning elections is a global one. These leaders and their parties capitalize on frustrations among working-class voters, particularly of global trade threatening their jobs, and rising immigration. The ongoing cost of living crisis as inflation drove up the price of groceries, also contributed to rising support for far-right movements. Trump's stance on immigration was a central theme in his campaigns, and he has promised that mass deportations will start as soon as he takes office. He’s also committed to ending birthright citizenship, and expanding travel bans.

    According to Mohit Kumar, chief economist at Jefferies, immigration has become a particularly potent election issue in large Western economies grappling with aging populations and labor shortages. The increase in immigration from regions like Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East has helped fill job vacancies, but created a fertile ground for nationalist, populist movements.

    Moody's ratings indicate that India stands to benefit from these shifts in power. The agency highlights that with Trump at the helm, escalating US-China tensions and potential investment restrictions in critical sectors could lead to a redirection of trade and investment. “In the Asia-Pacific, heightened US scrutiny in strategic sectors may prompt a move away from China, potentially weakening its economy and regional growth. In contrast, countries like India and ASEAN nations could gain new opportunities in this evolving landscape,” Moody's stated.

    The European Union which includes countries like Hungary, Slovakia, France, Germany, Austria and Netherlands have also seen right-wing populist parties make strong gains or come to power in recent elections. This shift doesn’t seem to stem directly from factors like high immigration rates or poor economic conditions, but rather from broader geopolitical instability. European voters appear increasingly drawn to alternative approaches, signaling a desire for change.

    Some nations shift left amid global changes

    While voters in most major economies shifted to the right, there are a few countries that moved left. Left-wing governments advocate for greater social and economic equality, often supporting socially liberal ideas and representing socialist or progressive movements.

    The United Kingdom also held elections this year, resulting in a victory for the center-left Labour Party after 14 years of Conservative rule. The UK has experienced several years of turbulence, some caused under the Conservative government and some by external factors, that have left many voters feeling pessimistic about the nation's future. The UK's exit from the European Union, followed by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, severely impacted the economy.

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    The Baseline
    13 Nov 2024
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - November 13, 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - November 13, 2024

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. CCL Products India:

    Axis Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this tea & coffee company with a target price of Rs 820, indicating an upside potential of 17.6%. In Q2FY25 its net profit grew 21.5% YoY to Rs 74 crore beating Forecaster estimates by 6.3%, while its revenue rose 21.4% to Rs 738.7 crore, driven by  approximately 10% volume growth during the quarter. 

    Analysts Preeyam Tolia and Suhanee Shome note that the domestic business generated Rs 105 crore, with Rs 70 crore from the branded segment; the company aims for Rs 300 crore in branded sales by FY25. Analysts also mention that the company is expanding beyond Southern India into new markets. The Vietnam plant is set to start freeze-dried coffee production by Q3FY25, with high initial utilization, while the Indian plant will begin operations within a month, targeting 30% utilization in year one, 60% in year two, and 80% thereafter.

    Tolia and Shome highlight the company’s steady performance despite fluctuations in coffee prices. They project a net sales CAGR of 21.5% and EBITDA growth of 29.9% for FY25-27, considering the impact of higher coffee prices, increased depreciation, and rising interest costs.

    2. KEC International:

    Sharekhan retains its ‘Buy’ rating on KEC International with a target price of Rs 1,100, indicating an upside of 13.9%. This heavy electrical equipment company reported a net profit growth of 53% YoY to Rs 85.4 crore in Q2FY25, helped by reduced erection & subcontracting and finance costs, while its revenue increased 13.4% YoY to Rs 5,119.9 crore during the quarter.

    Analysts note that the company’s year-to-date order intake jumped 50% YoY to Rs 13,482 crore, mainly from Rs 9,000 crore in Transmission & Distribution (T&D) and Rs 1,350 crore in Railways. Management expects 20% growth in the T&D segment for FY25, supported by faster execution while the Civil segment anticipates 30% growth on a Rs 10,000 crore order backlog. KEC's new aluminum conductor plant, set to start dispatches in November, is expected to enhance competitiveness in T&D.

    Analysts are optimistic about the company’s growth, given its strong order book of around Rs 42,500 crore (including L1). The brokerage forecasts a 16% revenue growth over FY25-27, along with steady margin improvement.

    3. Blue Jet Healthcare:

    ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this pharmaceuticals company with a target price of Rs 600, indicating a potential upside of 15.8%. Blue Jet Healthcare reported revenue growth of 16.2% YoY to Rs 220.3 crore in Q2FY25, outperforming Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 10.8%.

    Analysts Sanjesh Jain and Mohit Mishra say, “Rise in revenue was partly impacted by rising goods-in-transit. But this was offset by the strong ramp-up in cardiovascular molecule supplies to innovators.”

    Analysts notes that the contrast media segment fell 11.1% YoY, due to longer European delivery times. However, Blue Jet expects growth in this area by CY25. The company recently started producing a new molecule (product) with an 80 kilolitres (KL) capacity, with invoicing starting in the fourth quarter of FY25. The pharma intermediates (PI)/ active pharmaceuticals ingredients (APIs) segment grew 172.1% YoY, supported by a new facility at Ambernath, and is on track for peak utilization by FY25 end.

    Jain and Mishra expect the company to grow revenue sharply with a good new product pipeline, and expect stable margins over the next two years. They project EBITDA growth of 31.2% in FY25 and 29.9% in FY26.

    4. Endurance Technologies:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on Endurance Technologies with a target price of Rs 2,825, indicating an upside potential of 17.8%. This auto parts and equipment manufacturer reported a net profit growth of 31.3% YoY to Rs 203 crore in Q2FY25. Revenue rose 14.8% to Rs 2.939.2 crore during the quarter. According to Trendlyne’s DVM scores it's a strong performer that is getting expensive.

    Analysts Aniket Mhatre, Amber Shukla and Aniket Desai highlight that the company’s European business also performed well, with revenue increasing by 6.4% YoY to €66.9 million (approximately Rs 600.8 crore). Analysts note order wins in the first half of FY25 totaled Rs 310 crore. Expansion plans include a new alloy wheel plant with a 4.5 million unit capacity, set to launch by September 2025, which will help Endurance increase its two-wheeler (2W) alloy wheel market share to 25%. Management also aims to increase its share of the four-wheeler business from 25% to 45% by FY30. 

    Mhatre, Shukla, and Desai estimate a CAGR of approximately 14% in revenue, 17% in EBITDA, and 24% in PAT for FY25-27, driven by a recovery in key industries, including the domestic 2W and European PV sectors.

    5. Blue Star:

    BOB Capital Markets maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this consumer electronics company with a target price of Rs 2,100, indicating a potential upside of 19.3%. Blue Star’s net profit rose 36.1% YoY to Rs 96.2 crore in Q2FY25. Revenue increased 20.6% YoY to Rs 2,294.5 crore during the quarter. Analyst Arshia Khosla highlights strong performance of the room air conditioner (RAC) segment in H1FY25, RAC volumes grew 53%. The company holds a 13.75% market share in RACs, with 50% of sales through modern retail formats.

    The company is making progress in the commercial AC market, with a Rs 5,000 crore order book, fueled by sectors like data centers and commercial real estate. Blue Star is also expanding internationally, with successful shipments to the US, despite challenges in water cooler production and slowdowns in the European market.

    Khosla expects a CAGR of 19% in revenue and 30% in earnings from FY25-27, driven by strong performance in the electro-mechanical projects (EMP) and unitary cooling products (UCP) segments, cost-saving initiatives, and enhanced operating efficiency.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)




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    The Baseline
    09 Nov 2024, 10:47AM
    Multibaggers dominate in a few sectors | Screener: Stocks which have held on to massive gains in a volatile market

    Multibaggers dominate in a few sectors | Screener: Stocks which have held on to massive gains in a volatile market

    What a difference a day makes. On November 4, the US presidential polls were a dead heat. Many experts predicted that Kamala Harris would squeak out a win, while prediction markets were betting on Trump. On election day Donald Trump swept to an easy victory, defeating Democrats even in the historic strongholds of the 'blue wall' states. 

    What does this election result mean for India? A Trump administration would be more pro-market and pro-crypto. Trump, despite claiming to be 'a friend to India', is suspicious of globalization, and has promised a universal tariff of 10% on all US imports, and retaliatory tariffs on India. 

    Still, as many are discovering today, trying to predict the future is a dangerous game. So rather than make predictions,  we look at the past and present. Past and present multibaggers, to be precise.

    In a bull market, many investor portfolios are in the green. But when markets turn volatile, some stocks are better to hanging on to their gains than others.  

    In this week's Analyticks:

    The steady ships: Companies and sectors that are holding on to their gains in a volatile market

    Screener: Multibagger stocks which are rising in the past quarter

    Let's take a closer look.


    As the multibagger count falls, which stocks are holding up? 

    While investors watch the market mood closely, the still-standing Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, has some advice: "Remember that the stock market is a manic-depressive." So amid the shifts that keep happening, we need to look for clear trendlines. 

    A useful marker of market bullishness is the number of multibaggers in the stock universe. As momentum turned positive at the end of 2023, the number of stocks with more than 100% change in share price jumped sharply, peaking in March 2024. 

    The momentum has slowed since then, although the decline has not been steep --  indices after all are still up 27% from September 2023.

    The Nifty500 index however, shows a sharper swing. Gainers had surged by the end of March, but since then  there has been a broad decline. 

    What is interesting are the stocks that have continued to surge. Currently, the big gainers in the Nifty500 are dominated by financial companies like exchanges (BSE, MCX), capital markets players (Motilal Oswal, CDSL, Nuvama Wealth), and funding agencies for the public sector (IREDA, IRFC). Manufacturing companies across industries are also upbeat - from consumer electronics players like Dixon Tech to equipment players like Kaynes Technology. In these sectors, the bullish sentiment has been consistent. 

    Capital market players  in particular, have continued to outperform the market. Companies like Motilal Oswal, BSE and others are up by double-digit percentages over the past month. A surge in IPOs and inverstor interest in stocks and mutual funds has driven the growth of demat accounts, with an average of 4 million new accounts opening every month. And despite the muted forecasts for GDP, Indian manufacturing is showing signs of a recovery, with players across verticals reporting a jump in order book volumes and a rise in demand. 

    Both trendline and sector specific movements are going to be key for investors in the coming months. While economists and analysts are seeing a slowdown in GDP growth, some sectors will stay resilient, keeping gains strong in the top performers in these segments.


    Screener: Multibagger stocks which are rising in the past quarter

    Quarter winners: Tech, consumer electronics, industrials are among the big gainers

    The Indian equity markets have seen a massive sell-off of Rs 88,267.9 crore by foreign investors in the past month, resulting in the Nifty 50 falling by 3.2% in the same period. In this volatile market, we look at multibagger stocks which have continued their growth. This screener shows multibagger stocks which are rising in the past quarter despite a volatile market.

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the software & services, pharmaceuticals & biotechnology, general industrials, banking & finance, and consumer durables sectors. Most notable stocks in the screener are Trent, Oracle Financial Services Software, Dixon Technologies (India), BSE, PB Fintech, Bharti Hexacom, Kalyan Jewellers India, and Siemens. 

    Trent turns up in the screener after rising by 221.6% in the past year. This department stores company has continued this trend in recent months, rising 27.5% in the past quarter after posting positive results in Q1FY25 where its revenue and net profit grew by 54.8% YoY to Rs 4,150.4 crore and 126.3% YoY to Rs 392.6 crore, respectively. 

    The growth in stock price is further supported by new Westside and Zudio store additions in August. The company, which has fallen 5.4% over the past month, is set to release its Q2FY25 results on Thursday with Trendlyne’s Forecaster expecting its revenue and net profit to grow by 42.8% YoY and 102.2% YoY, respectively.

    Investor darling Dixon Technologies (India) has risen 173.7% in the last year. This consumer electronics company’s stock price increased by 23.9% in the past quarter, driven by strong Q2FY25 results. Its revenue grew by 133.2% YoY to Rs 11,528.4 crore on the back of an improvement in the mobile phones, electronic manufacturing services (EMS), home appliances, and lighting products segments. On the other hand, net profit increased by 263.3% YoY to Rs 389.9 crore during the quarter. The company’s stock was also added to the MSCI index on August 13. It also entered memorandums of understanding (MoUs) with HP and Asus on September 9 and September 13, respectively, to manufacture laptops.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    08 Nov 2024, 05:33PM
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - November 08, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - November 08, 2024

    1. Larsen & Toubro:

    This construction & engineering company has risen 8.3% since October 30, after reporting its Q2FY25 results on that day and the announcement this week of the acquisition of a 21% stake in E2E Networks for Rs 1,407 crore. Its net profit and revenue grew 13% YoY to Rs 703.6 crore, and 20.1% YoY to Rs 62,655.9 crore during the quarter, respectively. This helped net profit and revenue to beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 1.2% and 5.9% respectively. The company features in a screener of stocks with negative to positive growth in sales and profits with strong price momentum.

    L&T’s revenue rose owing to improvements in infrastructure projects (51.9% of revenue), energy projects (14.2% of revenue), hi-tech manufacturing (3.5% of revenue), IT & technology services (19.2% of revenue), and financial services segments (6.2% of revenue). However, the company’s order inflow fell 10% YoY to Rs 80,045 crore due to a high base and heavy monsoons. 45% of the order inflow was from domestic clients, while international clients contributed 55%. 

    In the earnings call, Larsen & Toubro’s Executive Vice President, P Ramakrishnan said, “With the current order book at Rs 1.5 lakh crore in H1FY25, we expect the order inflow to grow 10% YoY to Rs 3.3 lakh crore in FY25. This will help our group revenues to grow by 15% YoY during the fiscal year.”

    Post the acquisition in E2E Networks, Larsen & Toubro entered a partnership with the company to provide GenAI solutions in India. L&T will utilise E2E’s cloud and AI cloud platform, and its expertise in data center management.

    Post results, ICICI Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ call on L&T with a target price of Rs 4,262 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 16.9%. The brokerage believes the company’s order backlog growth and a pick-up in execution will help to beat its guidance for FY25. It expects the company’s revenue to grow at a CAGR of 14.7% over FY25-26.

    2. Apollo Hospitals Enterprise: 

    Thishospital chain surged 6.6% on Thursday following theannouncement of its Q2 results. Apollo reported a 15.6% YoY growth in revenue, at Rs 5,628 crore, with a 62.6% YoY increase in net profit at Rs 379 crore. Both revenue and net profit surpassedForecaster estimates by 1.5% and 5.2%, respectively. JPMorgan has maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating on the stock as the results were in line with estimates.

    If we look at therevenue mix, the healthcare services segment, which contributes to more than half of the total revenue, saw a 13.8% YoY growth. This growth was driven by a higher occupancy rate of 73% this quarter, up from 68% last year, along with a 6% increase in average revenue per patient. The company plans to add over 1,700 beds by FY26, with another 1,800 expected in the following 3-4 years.

    Apollo HealthCo, the company’s digital health and pharmacy arm contributing over 40% of the total revenue, grew 17% YoY. This segment turned profitable this quarter, reporting a net profit of Rs 19 crore with an EBITDA margin of 2.3%. In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Managing Director Suneeta Reddy said, “Apollo HealthCo will achieve a 7-8% EBITDA margin over the next three years, following the integration of Keimed.” She also noted that this merger will be EPS accretive, enhancing profitability from the first year.

    Meanwhile, the retail health & diagnostics segment, Apollo Health & Lifestyle Ltd (AHLL), reported a Rs 4.6 crore loss this quarter. Reddyexpects AHLL to reach profitability by the end of this fiscal year. Apollo’s management indicated plans to enter the insurance business to boost overall margins. They highlighted that the license and other related formalities faced a one-quarter delay but expect it to be completed by Q3.

    Post results, Motilal Oswalmaintains a ‘Buy’ rating on Apollo Hospitals, anticipating that its hospital business and Apollo 24/7 (part of Apollo HealthCo) will drive future earnings. They forecast a CAGR of 16% in revenue and 30% in net profit over FY25-27. With a target price of Rs 8,660, the stock presents a potential upside of over 16%.

    3. ABB India:

    This heavy electrical equipment company has fallen by 5.2% over the past week following the announcement of its Q3CY24 results on November 4. ABB India’s net profit grew by 21.4% YoY to Rs 440.5 crore owing to lower raw materials and inventory costs. However, it missed Forecaster estimates by 7.8%. Meanwhile, revenue increased 5.6% YoY to Rs 3,005.1 crore. 

    During the quarter, revenue growth was driven by improvements in the robotics & motion (up 8% YoY) and electrification (11% YoY) segments. However, the process automation segment declined 12% YoY. Analysts highlighted that the company’s performance was below expectations due to lower-than-expected order inflows and execution. They note the quarter was impacted by a shift in the order book mix, with a higher share of long-gestation (to be executed in 18-24 months), large-sized orders. Large orders make up about 25% of the current order book.

    In Q3, ABB India’s order inflow stood at Rs 3,342 crore, up 11% YoY. The electrification segment contributed 53% of the total inflow driven by large orders from the data centre segment for smart power and distribution solutions divisions.

    ABB India’s order backlog as of September 30 stood at Rs 9,995 crore, an increase of 25% YoY, providing revenue visibility for the next few quarters. Commenting on this, T. Sridhar said “We are able to maintain the momentum of orders, comprising of both large as well as base orders, base orders being the maximum”.

    Motilal Oswal maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on ABB India with a target price of Rs 8,500 crore. The brokerage remains positive on ABB due to its ability to benefit from high growth segments - electrification, data centre, and motion, as well as its wide offerings and deeper penetration network. It projects the company’s revenue and PAT to grow by 15% YoY and 51% YoY, respectively in CY24.

    4. Cipla:

    This pharmaceuticals company rose by 3% over the past week as the company’s manufacturing facility in Goa received a Voluntary Action Indicated (VAI) from USFDA after a routine inspection. Analysts expect that this could speed up the company’s gAbraxane development process. 

    The drug is a chemotherapy treatment for various types of cancer. It was delayed for the past two years and in its recent commentary, the company’s management guided for a further delay till H1FY27 as it waits for further approvals.

    The company declared its Q2FY25 result on 29th October. Its net profit rose by 15.2% to Rs 1,302.5 crore on the back of decline in finance and depreciation expenses, while its revenue rose by 5.7%. The firm beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue by 0.2% and the net profit estimate by 7.2%. The stock appears in a screener of stocks where mutual funds increased shareholding in the past month.

    In Q2FY25, the company’s revenue grew due to strong double-digit growth in the One Africa segment, emerging markets, and Europe. The One Africa business which includes South Africa, grew by 23.9% YoY on the back of Direct-to-Market (DTM) and Business-to-Business (B2B) categories in North Africa, and opportunistic tender wins, including vaccine tenders. However, the India segment grew by only 4.7% YoY as it witnessed slower seasonal growth.

    Analysts note that currently, only one company—Sandoz(Switzerland), in partnership with Jiangsu Hengrui of China—has launched gAbraxane in the US market, with Cipla set to be the second player. Given the lack of competition in the generic market, they see this as a significant opportunity for Cipla. As a complex oncology product, Cipla has significant moat here and it’s expected to take longer for other players to enter the market. Analysts estimate gAbraxane could represent a $600-800 million opportunity, with Cipla potentially generating $80 million in sales by FY27.

    The company’s CEO Umang Vohra said, “We are on track to achieve our margin guidance for the year, between 24.5-25.5%. The last 12 months have been audit heavy with our facilities of Invagen, Kurkumbh, Patalganga, China and Goa audited. All these facilities have been cleared with either a VAI or NAI.”On the drugs in development stage, he added, “De-risking of generic asthma drug Advair has been progressing as per expectations. We expect to launch it in H1FY26.”

    KR Choksey has retained an ‘Accumulate’ rating on Cipla with a target price of Rs 1,680. The brokerage has increased its FY26 EPS estimate to Rs 62.6 from Rs 60.6 previously. It expects the company’s top-line to grow, especially in high-growth regions like South Africa and emerging markets. The brokerage anticipates a rebound in respiratory products in domestic business and launch of generic drug Advair by H1FY26.

    5. Vedanta:

    This metals stock was flat today, fell over 1.3% in the past week, and rose 5.9% up over the quarter. The company announced better than expected Q2 results that showed a turnaround in performance, reporting a net profit of Rs 5,603 crore for the September quarter as against a loss of Rs 915 crore in the quarter last year. Both the aluminium and oil businesses beat expectations, helping its overall net profit beat estimates by 79%. Weak zinc prices had hurt the business the previous year, 

    Vedanta’s numbers were also helped by lower taxes -  taxes fell to Rs 2,030 crore this quarter, from Rs 9,092 crore in the same quarter last year. Net debt came down as well, falling by around Rs 4,400 crore QoQ to Rs 56,927 crore. This brings its Net Debt/EBITDA ratio to 1.49x, the best level in six quarters. 

    Arun Mishra, the Executive Director of Vedanta, noted that this quarter delivered "our highest-ever first-half EBITDA of Rs 20,639 crore, with 46% growth YoY.” He said that he expected the rest of the year to be strong as well. “We believe the second half numbers will show a further ramp up, as major new projects come online." The cyclical metal business is right now in Vedanta's favour, with both aluminium and zinc prices up globally by double digits in the quarter.

    The consensus from analysts on the stock is a buy.  In a separate press release, the company said that the proposed demerger of its businesses (where it will split its major businesses of zinc, oil, aluminium, power, steel and base metals into six separate listed entities) is on track. The demerger was expected to be completed by the end of FY25. However, the latest press note has mentioned no specific timeline or end date.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    05 Nov 2024

    Chart of the Week: Banks & AMCs beat analyst forecasts in Q2, while OMCs & pharma disappoint

    By Satyam Kumar

    Who doesn’t enjoy surprises? The word makes us think of something pleasing and unexpected. However, when viewed through the lens of an analyst with specific forecasts about a company’s performance, surprises can be negative too, as we’ll explore in this article. 

    If you check the quarterly reports of analysts, available here, it typically begins with an assessment of whether the firm exceeded or missed estimates for revenue, net profit, margins, and other key metrics in their results. These beats and misses significantly impact the company’s share price. In this week’s chart of the week, we’ll look at Trendlyne’s Analyst Estimates dashboard to review companies that either beat or missed forecasted estimates for Q2 FY25.

    Banks shine in Q2, wealth management & related firms outperform

    Most banks reported strong results in Q2, with firms like ICICI Bank and Axis Bank exceeding analyst expectations for revenue and net profit. Improved asset quality and sustained loan growth boosted earnings; deposits however, remain a concern, impacting profitability. Changing savings preferences have driven customers away from deposit accounts, as more and more people buy into the idea of “Mutual Funds sahi hai.” 

    Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) banks like the Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank, and Union Bank of India outperformed estimates by significant margins. Many PSU banks currently offer strong valuations, with Trendlyne Valuation Scores above 70. This trend aligns with Nifty PSU Bank—an index of 12 government banks—trading at a discount of over 15% from its 52-week high.

    On the contrary, Kotak Mahindra Bank missed its consensus estimates due to higher slippages (bad debt), particularly in the credit card and microfinance segments, impacted by macroeconomic stress and borrower overleveraging. In response to this, traders and investors led Kotak’s share price down by over 4% on the result announcement day, October 21. The RBI's ban on digital customer onboarding by Kotak due to a tech embargo has also slowed growth, especially in new credit cards. A positive development for the bank, however, was the significant growth in deposits, driven by the relaunch of ActivMoney, an alternative to fixed deposits.

    All asset management companies, including HDFC AMC, Nippon Life India, UTI AMC, and Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, surpassed estimates by wide margins, reflecting increased investor confidence in India’s long-term economic growth. Other firms, like CDSL, MCX, and KFIN Technologies, also reported strong results, benefiting from similar trends.

    Consumer electronics, realty and general industrials were a mixed-bag

    The past few years have been favourable for consumer electronics manufacturers in India. Demand continues to rise, driven by rapid advancements in technology, such as the shift from 3G to 4G to 5G and the emergence of generative AI. On the supply side, the government has introduced policies to incentivize local manufacturing of electronic goods, supporting industry growth. 

    Rising disposable incomes have also blurred the line between essential and discretionary products. What was once considered a luxury is now viewed as a norm. Companies like Dixon Technologies and Amber Enterprises exceeded revenue and net profit estimates by significant margins. In contrast, Voltas missed estimates slightly during a seasonally weak quarter, as much of its revenue relies on air-conditioner sales.

    The real estate sector experienced a mixed performance, with both upbeat and downbeat results. DLF, Godrej Properties, and Prestige Estates Projects reported positive Q2 results, while Macrotech Developers, Oberoi Realty, and Phoenix Mills posted weaker-than-expected results. Similarly, in the general industrials sector, companies like BHEL and Jindal Saw exceeded expectations, whereas Grindwell Norton, Suzlon Energy, Supreme Industries, and AIA Engineering underperformed relative to Forecaster estimates.

    OMCs miss estimates on all fronts

    Q2 was a real bummer for oil marketing companies (OMCs) such as Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum. All of these firms missed net profit estimates and saw it decline for another quarter — a negative trend that started in Q2 last year. However, just before this downhill journey, these OMCs had reported all-time high net profits because of cheap Russian crude that India imported last year. Even today, India imports most of its crude oil from Russia (above 40%), but it is not as cheap, creating pressure on their profit margins.

    Meanwhile, in the pharma industry, it feels like the firms were struggling to manage both sides of the scale — one side representing revenue and the other side representing net profit. Pharma bellwethers like Sun Pharmaceutical and Cipla barely managed to meet their revenue consensus, while delivering on higher than expected net income. On the contrary, firms like Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Ajanta Pharma, and Piramal Pharma missed Forecaster's net profit estimates, primarily due to their growth-seeking approach.

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    The Baseline
    31 Oct 2024
    Some sectors show positive signs in a downbeat quarter | Screener: Stocks beating their estimates

    Some sectors show positive signs in a downbeat quarter | Screener: Stocks beating their estimates

    The CEOs are less bombastic, the analysts are concerned, and the investors are brooding over the red in their portfolios.

    Much of the talk in these past few weeks has been around India Inc's disappointing Q2 results. Revenue growth across sectors and industries looks in the range of 5-7% YoY, the slowest in four years. Large bellweather companies like Reliance Industries have reported disappointing numbers, missing estimates.

    Among the underperfomers is the cement and construction sector, whose results so far have shown negative average revenue growth and falling margins. One factor here is the strong monsoon, which while great for agriculture, has delayed construction activity across the country.

    But a bigger factor, as the Nuvoco Vistas management pointed out, is falling government spending. "Union government capex has dropped 19% YoY, and state governments’ capex declined by 6% YoY in the first five months of FY25, after a 40% surge in the previous year," they noted. "Some states have seen 35%+ drops in state capex spending." 

    Construction and cement account for one-fifth of corporate earnings, so weakness here has dragged down overall performance. Sectors such as industrial machinery and plastics are also struggling, and consumer demand remains weak across sectors like FMCG, auto, and retail.

    Still, there are some bright spots emerging in the results. In our hunt for silver linings, we take a closer look at these. 

    In this week's Analyticks:

    It's results season!: In a downbeat quarter, who are the outperformers?

    Screener: Rising stocks outperforming Forecaster estimates in revenue and EPS in Q2FY25


    Banking and tech are the front-benchers this quarter

    As Q2 results have rolled in, one emerging bright spot has been banks. Stronger deposit growth has helped drive net profits up. Net interest income is higher, although it is growing slower than it did over the past two years. Still, steady performances from major banks like ICICI Bank has helped boost sentiment for this part of India Inc. 

    Another sector that is emerging from the doldrums, is IT and software. According to tech CEOs, discretionary spending is coming back globally, with Mastek CEO Umang Nahata noting that "sentiment in the market is positive compared to what it was earlier." Infosys has increased its guidance for the second consecutive quarter amid this shift.

    A relatively surprising entry here is textiles. The textile sector has struggled for the past several quarters with rising competition from players in Vietnam and Bangladesh, as well as weak demand for intermediary products. This quarter however, there are hints of green shoots, with rising revenues overall. Welspun Group Chairman Balakrishan Goenka has pointed to the growth of the advanced textiles segment and global brands as drivers for Indian players. "Domestic demand," he notes, "has also ramped up." 


    Average revenues jump, but companies struggle with margins and profitability

    Even in these better performing sectors, there are some concerning trends. Textiles is still struggling with margin growth, despite double digit revenue expansion. Banks while growing, are seeing a more muted result than previous quarters. 

    When domestic growth slows, investors and analysts alike look to export-oriented sectors like software and textiles. While the jury is still out on the outlook for the textile sector, IT companies, particularly IT services, are coming out of the doldrums, thanks to drivers like interest rate cuts in the US and EU. Salil Parekh, the Infosys CEO noted, "Typically we have seen that when interest rate cuts begin and inflation is more in control in Western Europe and the US, spending on large technology programs increases". 

    But what is driving overall Q2 weakness? Management across sectors point to the slowing Indian economy. There are some clear warning signs: slower credit growth and higher food inflation. FMCG growth,which used to be in the double digits a couple of quarters ago, is now down to 1.5% to 2%.  All of this points to Indians growing more protective of their wallets. 

    So even as consumer spending recovers globally,  we need to keep an eye on Indian demand, particularly in urban areas. "The pressure points are coming from mega cities and metros," Nestle India Chairman Suresh Narayanan says. This lack of consumer confidence is set to suppress the performance for much of India Inc. 


    Screener: Rising stocks outperforming Forecaster estimates in revenue and EPS in Q2FY25

    Banking & finance stocks have the highest positive surprise in Q2FY25

    With the result season in full flow, we take a look at companies that have outperformed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates. This screener shows stocks rising over the past month while outperforming Forecaster estimates in revenue and earnings per share (EPS) in Q2FY25.

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the banking & finance, software & services, and consumer durables sectors. Most notable stocks that feature in the screener are Amber Enterprises, Dixon Technologies, Nippon Life India Asset Management, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, Indian Bank, Federal Bank, Great Easter Shipping, Multi Commodity Exchange of India, and City Union Bank.

    Amber Enterprises’ revenue and EPS beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 44.8% and 1,283.3% in Q2FY25. Revenue beat estimates, helped by the consumer electronics company’s revenue growing by 81.2% YoY on the back of an improvement in the consumer durables (which contributes to 64% of total revenue) and electronic manufacturing services (EMS) (contributes 29%). The company’s EPS outperformance was driven by a net profit of Rs 19.2 crore in Q2FY24 compared to a Rs 6.9 crore loss in Q2FY24.

    Nippon Life India Asset Management also shows up in the screener after beating Forecaster estimates for revenue and EPS by 21.2% and 14.3%, respectively in Q2FY25. This asset management company’s revenue beat estimates owing to higher assets under management and improved inflows in the SIP and equity funds segments. EPS beat Forecaster estimates after growing by 47.3% YoY to Rs 360.1 crore during the quarter.

    You can find some popular screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    30 Oct 2024
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - October 30, 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - October 30, 2024

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    1. Varun Beverages:

    KR Choksey maintains a ‘Buy’ call on thisbeverages company with a target price of Rs 738, indicating a potential upside of 21.1%. Varun Beverages reported revenue growth of 24.1% YoY to Rs 4,804.7 crore in Q3CY24, outperforming analyst expectations by 3.6% and Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 4.9%. This growth was primarily fueled by strong performance in its carbonated soft drinks, juices, and water segments.

    The company’s net profit grew by 23.7% YoY to Rs 619.6 crore, driven by higher sales and improved margins. The growth was partially offset by an 89.7% increase in finance costs related to the acquisition of BevCo, a Kerala-based beverage company. Analyst Dipak Saha notes that the company’s expansion in India is on track, with new facilities expected to be commissioned before summer next year. With some facilities opening in early 2025 (January-February) and the rest by August, Saha expects this expansion to double the firm’s capacity from current levels.

    The company also plans to expand its facilities in Africa to double its capacity there by February 2025. Saha remains optimistic, noting that ongoing expansion in Africa, new facilities in India, and product innovations like an upcoming jeera-based beverage should be the major growth drivers for the company.

    2. ICICI Bank:

    Edelweiss reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this bank with a higher target price of Rs 1,490. This indicates a potential upside of 11.9%. In Q2FY25, the bank's net interest income (NII) increased by 3% QoQ to Rs 20,048 crore, though net interest margin (NIM) fell by 9 bps to below 4.3%. Meanwhile, the cost-to-income (C/I) ratio improved to 38.6%, down 108 bps, as operating expenses remained stable due to lower employee costs.

    Analysts Raj Jha, Umang Patil, and Sanjana Faujdar, said, “The contraction in NIM was expected but improved C/I ratio & lower credit cost is a positive. We expect the bank to maintain strong performance due to its digital initiatives and solid balance sheet.” 

    ICICI Bank is optimistic about its balance sheet, as it does not anticipate any loan growth challenges in FY25 and is confident in generating sufficient deposits to fund loan growth. The management indicated that there are many opportunities present to drive risk-calibrated growth, particularly in the credit card segment, which currently constitutes 5% of the overall mix and has a minimal impact on credit costs.

    Jha, Patil, and Faujdar noted that operating expenses may rise slightly in H1 FY25 due to increased spending related to festive activities and technology investments. They expect the bank’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to decrease from 17.9 in FY24 to 13.4 by FY26.

    3. Strides Pharma Science:

    Sharekhan reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this pharma company with a target price of Rs 1,874, indicating a potential upside of 25.5%. The analysts highlight Strides Pharma’s investment in nasal sprays and other areas, as part of a long-term strategy focused on achieving $400 million plus in revenue from the generics segment. The company has identified three opportunities within the nasal spray market, which they believe will compensate for a decline in soft gelatin volumes.

    In Q2FY25, the company reported a 20% YoY revenue growth to Rs 1,201 crore, largely driven by its US business, which achieved record sales of $75 million. EBITDA margin improved by 71 bps YoY to 20%. The company saw unexpectedly high demand for the GLP-1 drug, used in the treatment of diabetes and obesity. The surge was driven by two key factors: the dosage requirement for pens — an injection to deliver insulin into the body, is twice as high, and some customers miscalculated their volume forecasts, resulting in greater demand than initially expected. The company also relaunched products from its inactive portfolio, resulting in a surge in market share and revenue in the US.

    The analysts note that cost control measures and a healthy product mix support the 20% annual EBITDA growth guidance for FY25. They expect a revenue CAGR of 12.5% and a net profit CAGR of 33.3% over FY25-27.

    4. Can Fin Homes:

    Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this housing finance company, with a target price of Rs 1,000, implying a potential upside of 15.9%. Can Fin Homes has shown strong growth in sanctions and disbursements, with the latter up 30% YoY to Rs 2,617 crore in Q2FY25. The company’s management anticipates this momentum to continue, projecting total disbursements of ~Rs 10,000 crore for FY25.

    Analysts Dnyanada Vaidya and Pranav Nawale said, “Driven by positive expectations on NIMs, along with the availability of multiple levers, we anticipate a healthy CAGR of 15% in NII and 17% in earnings over FY25-27.” They believe the cost ratios are expected to remain between 17-18% due to the company’s investment in technology and the establishment of a marketing team.

    The company’s management expects assets under management (AUM) growth of 13-14% in FY25, with further acceleration to 15-17% by FY26 onwards. Vaidya and Nawale attribute this growth to the addition of 15-20 branches each year and the company's expansion into North and West India.

    5. ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company:

    Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this life insurance firm with a target price of Rs 900, implying a potential upside of 17.1%. The company reported a 13.1% YoY growth in new business premium (NBP) to Rs 4,930 crore in Q2FY25. Value of new business grew 1.6% YoY to Rs 590 crore, but margins declined 460 bps on a YoY basis to 23.4%, missing analysts’ expectations of 25%. This margin decline was due to a shift towards Unit Linked Insurance Plans (ULIPs), which generally have lower margins.

    Analysts Prayesh Jain and Nitin Aggarwal are optimistic about the insurer’s strategy to grow its network and introduce new products, which cater to customers seeking investment benefits and greater liquidity. Additionally, to enhance financial stability, the company plans issuance of non-convertible debentures worth Rs 1,400 crore. 

    Analysts are optimistic as the company sees strong growth potential in its proprietary channels due to increased investments in expanding its agency network and enhancing the skills of its agents. Jain and Aggarwal expect the firm to deliver a VNB CAGR of 20% over FY25-27.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    29 Oct 2024

    Chart of the Week: Promoters are on a selling spree as markets grow volatile

    By Satyam Kumar

    The ongoing correction in the Indian stock market has left many retail investors wondering about the reasons behind the heavy selling. While the Middle East war is an important factor here, the relatively expensive valuations of the Indian firms, downbeat Q2 results, and a slowing Indian economy are other reasons.

    Foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who are the most fickle players in a stock market, have according to Trendlyne’s FII & DII dashboard, sold over Rs 90,000 crore worth of equities in the Indian market in October (the highest ever in a single month). This suggests that FIIs are booking profits and reallocating some investments to China, which currently appears to be a more affordable market. As a result, the Nifty50 is trading at a discount of over 7% from its all-time high. Even promoters, who are closely tracked for their long-term bets on their companies, have been cashing out a sizeable chunk of their holdings.

    This chart of the week takes a look at promoter activity over the past quarter. Given promoters' significant influence over board selection and key decisions, their trading activity can be a leading indicator that gives insights into the future of the business. According to Trendlyne’s shareholding stock screeners, promoters of 155 of the top 500 firms have reduced their shareholding, while just 23 increased it over the past quarter.

    Stocks with expensive PEs see corrections, promoters selling stakes

    Many stocks trading at very high price-to-earnings (PE) ratios or with a Trendlyne valuation score of below 35 have seen significant correction over the past month. An easy-to-understand value metric tracked on Trendlyne is the percentage of days the stock has traded below the current PE ratio. If this is more than 80%, it indicates that the stock usually trades below its current PE and is at a relatively high valuation, or in the “Strong Sell Zone”. This could explain why promoters are cutting their stake.

    Out of the 155 stocks where promoters decreased their stake in the last quarter, 93, or 60%, are in the Sell Zone or Strong Sell Zone. Firms like Prestige Estates Project, Vedanta, Max Financial Services, KPR Mill, and Adani Energy Solutions are in the Strong Sell Zone. Meanwhile, JK Tyre & Industries, Welspun Living, Patanjali Foods and 33 other firms are in the Sell Zone — which means that stock has traded below the current PE for at least 60% of the days.

    Notable sells by promoters

    According to a Trendlyne screener that tracks promoter stake cuts of over 2% in Nifty500 firms, 31 companies have witnessed significant promoter selling over the past quarter. Companies appearing in this screener include GE T&D India, Easy Trip Planners, Route Mobile, Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy, InterGlobe Aviation and Adani Energy Solutions among others.

    GE T&D India, an industrial machinery firm, saw its promoter offload a 15.6% stake via an offer for sale priced at Rs 1,400 per share — around Rs 300 below the then trading price. This resulted in stock hitting a lower circuit of 5% the day the offer opened for subscription on September 19.

    Meanwhile, Easy Trip Planners’ promoter, Nishant Pitti sold half of his stake in the past quarter and currently holds only 14.2%. This has reduced the cumulative promoter holding from 64.3% a quarter ago to slightly above 50% as of September 2024. The stock currently trades at nearly half its 52-week high of Rs 54.

    Similarly, at the end of August 2024, Rakesh Gangwal, co-founder and promoter of airline operator, InterGlobe Aviation (Indigo), sold a 6% equity stake valued at over Rs 10,000 crore. The Gangwal-backed promoter group’s stake has dropped from 36.7% in 2019 to 13.5% as of September 2024. This includes the 8.2% stake of Chinkerpoo Family Trust – whose trustees are Shobha Gangwal and JPMorgan Trust Company of Delaware – and Rakesh Gangwal's personal 5.3% stake.

    This all started when the partnership between co-founders Rahul Bhatia and Rakesh Gangwal soured and fell apart in 2019. In February 2022, Gangwal resigned from IndiGo’s board as a non-executive, non-independent director and announced plans to reduce his stake. “I have been a shareholder in the company for more than 15 years, and it's only natural to someday think about diversifying one's holdings,” Gangwal explained in his resignation letter.

    Significant corrections have led to stake additions

    With the ongoing correction in the Indian stock market, many stocks are trading at a substantial discount from their all-time highs. Promoters are taking this as an opportunity to increase their stakes, though the list of buyers is notably shorter compared to the number of sellers.

    While major promoter sells often make news headlines, however, the case is not the same when they increase their stake. This is likely because they don’t want to drive up the price while they are stacking up on those shares. Trendlyne’s screener, however, constantly tracks these activities and currently highlights over 20 stocks where promoters have increased their holdings over the past quarter.

    For instance, Maharashtra Seamless, a steel pipe manufacturer, saw its promoter, Jindal Group, add around 2.5 lakh shares year-till-date in 2024. Trendlyne categorises this stock as a “Value Stock, Under Radar”, noting the company’s sound financials, with the stock currently trading at a discount of over 40% from its all-time high.

    Similarly, Adani Green Energy, an Adani-Group firm, witnessed stake additions over the past two quarters as the stock currently trades at a discount of around 25% from its 52-week high. Other notable companies where promoters increased their stake over the last quarter include Indus Towers, GMR Airports Infrastructure, and Kalyan Jewellers India, among others.

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    The Baseline
    25 Oct 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - October 25, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - October 25, 2024

    1. Sona BLW Precision Forgings:

    This auto parts and equipment company surged 13.3% to Rs 730 per share on Thursday, following its strong second-quarter results. The company has also signed an agreement to acquire the Railway Equipment Division (RED) of Escorts Kubota (EKL) for Rs 1,600 crore in cash. RED is a key supplier of essential components for railways, such as brakes and suspension systems for rolling stock.

    For the quarter ending September 30, 2024 (Q2FY25), Sona BLW (Sona Comstar) posted a 16.2% YoY rise in net profit, to Rs 143.9 crore. Revenue from operations increased by 18.7% to Rs 946.1 crore, up from Rs 796.9 crore in Q2FY24. Both revenue and net profit exceeded Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 4.5% and 2.4%, respectively. At the operating level, EBITDA rose by 14.2% YoY to Rs 254.9 crore, while the EBITDA margin narrowed slightly by 33 basis points YoY to 28%. 

    Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) contributed 36% of the company’s revenue, with BEV revenue increasing by 53% YoY in the July-September period. The company also reported a net order book of Rs 23,100 crore as of September 30, 2024. Vivek Vikram Singh, the MD & Group CEO commented, "We are cautiously optimistic about our growth prospects, especially in the EV sector, even though there are slowdowns in specific markets like Europe and Indian two-wheelers." The company has intensified its focus on the electric vehicle (EV) market, with significant order wins including a driveline program for a class-5 electric truck and an in-cabin sensing product, signalling expansion and diversification of its product portfolio.

    Following the two developments, the Hong Kong-based brokerage CLSA upgraded Sona BLW to ‘Outperform,’ raising the target price to Rs 712 from Rs 690. The company’s operating performance met expectations, and its acquisition of EKL’s railway component business is seen as a key driver for future profitable growth.

    However, CLSA highlighted a potential slowdown in Sona BLW’s core business, and the importance of exploring inorganic growth opportunities. Revenue from the newly acquired railway division is expected to start contributing from FY26.

    2. Persistent Systems:

    This IT software company surged 10.9% on October 23, reaching an all-time high of Rs 5,798.7 after announcing its Q2FY25 results. The company’s net profit grew by 6.1% QoQ to Rs 325 crore in Q2FY25, while its revenue increased by 5.8% to Rs 2,897.2 crore, driven by strong growth in the BFSI (which constitutes ~32% of total revenue) and healthcare & life sciences (28% of the revenue) segments. However, the software, hi-tech & emerging industries segment (which constitutes 40% of the revenue) saw a muted growth of 1.4% during the quarter. Both net profit and revenue beat estimates by 4%  and 1.2% respectively.

    In terms of geographies, North Americas and Europe revenue grew by 6.4% and 6% QoQ, respectively, while India revenue grew by 1%. During the quarter, Persistent's total contract value (TCV) stood at Rs 4,400 crore ($529 mn), with Rs 2,574 crore from new deal wins.

    The company has outperformed its larger IT peers in profit growth. For instance, TCS reported a 1.1% QoQ decline in net profit during the quarter, while Infosys saw a 2.2%increase. Persistent has also outperformed its industry price change by 15.8% during the quarter.

    The company plans to acquire Arrka Solutions, a data privacy management firm, to enhance its offerings in data privacy, AI governance and cybersecurity. In FY24, Arrka reported Rs 2.9 crore in revenue.

    Persistent Systems maintained a flat EBIT margin of 14% from the previous quarter. CEO Sandeep Kalra said, “With the growth and cost-saving programs at Persistent, we are sticking to our target of expanding margins by 200-300 basis points over the next two years, and expect all three verticals to contribute as growth enablers.”

    Post-results, Axis Direct assigns a ‘Buy’ rating to Persistent, citing strong long-term growth potential due to multiple contracts with leading brands and improved revenue visibility. However, the brokerage also mentions worries about global growth, and supply issues that could affect the company's short-term prospects.

    3. Havells India:

    This electrical equipment maker has declined by 6.1% in the past week following the announcement of its Q2FY25 results on October 17. During the quarter, net profit missed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 15.2% despite growing by 7.7% YoY to Rs 268.2 crore. The company’s EBITDA margins contracted by 131bps to 8.3% mainly due to a sharp increase in ad-spends, and volatility in raw material prices. 

    The management expects margins to normalize in the upcoming quarters, reaching 13-14%, excluding Lloyd in Q3 and Q4. Anil Rai Gupta, the CMD said, “As the festival season is slightly earlier this year, we witnessed higher advertising spends, moderating margins across categories. We expect normalization over subsequent quarters”. EBITDA margins have witnessed a sequential decline, and stood at 9.9% in Q1, and 11.7% in Q4FY24, lower than analysts' estimates. Gupta highlighted that the company has experienced lower margins due to fluctuating raw material prices.

    Meanwhile, revenue increased by 16.4% YoY to Rs 4,539.3 crore, driven by the cables & wires (C&W), switchgear, and electrical consumer durables segments. The cables and switchgear segments (constituting over half of the revenue) witnessed healthy growth led by a pick-up in demand ahead of the festive season. 

    During the quarter, revenue in the Llyod Consumer segment (~13% of the revenue) also saw healthy growth, led by the non-RAC segment, which includes LED panels, refrigerators, and washing machines. The management aims for the Lloyd segment to contribute around 20% to Havells’ India revenue. 

    Going forward, the management expects revenue growth to be driven by residential demand and festive demand. The CMD highlighted that channel expansion and product addition by the company are also likely to contribute to revenue growth. In Q2, Havells India commissioned a new cable plant in Tumkur for the production of higher-sized cable. Due to the higher demand for the product, the company has committed an additional capex of Rs 450 crore to expand the facility. The capex planned for H2FY25 is Rs1,000 crore. 

    ICICI Securities remains positive on Havells due to its established competitive advantages and growth opportunities in white goods and durables. The brokerage maintains its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 2,120.

    4. Dalmia Bharat:

    This cement & cement products company rose by over 3% on 24th October, as its wholly owned subsidiary Dalmia Cement (Bharat) (DCBL) signed a Share Purchase & Shareholders Agreement (“SPSA”), to acquire a 5.4% stake in Atria Wind Power (Basavana Begawadi, Karnataka) to source wind power as a captive consumer for its capacity of 6 MW located in Karnataka.

    The company declared its Q2FY25 results on 21st October. Its net profit declined by 61% YoY to Rs 46 crore due to lower realization, along with plant maintenance & shutdowns, while its revenue declined by 2.3%. The firm missed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue by 1.4% and the net profit estimate by 41.2%. Despite the weak result, the stock appears in a screener for stocks showing relative outperformance versus industry over 1 month period.

    In Q2FY25, the company was impacted by a 9% YoY decline in realization, down to Rs 4,607/tonne, which negatively affected its EBITDA margin, which at 14.1%, was the lowest in several years.  The company’s cost/tonne decreased by 4% YoY to Rs 3,960, driven by lower freight and inventory adjustments. Its volume growth was 8%, which was better than expected owing to a lower base last year and the commissioning of new capacity in H1FY25.

    Analysts remain optimistic about the company despite these speedbumps, noting that the market share of major cement players has risen from 46% in 2013 to 55% in 2024, with projections suggesting it could reach 60% by FY26-27. As top companies continue to consolidate and expand their capacities, their overall market share is expected to grow, positively impacting cement pricing, economies of scale, and supply chain efficiency. Being among the top five players in the country, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on this consolidation in the medium to long term. But the competition in the sector is intense.

    The company’s CEO and Managing Director Puneet Dalmia guides a 9% volume growth, with EBITDA/tonne in the range of Rs 900-950 in H2FY25. He projects cement prices to trend slightly higher, while expecting operating efficiency to contribute Rs 150-200 in cost savings over the next three years. The company management plans to improve EBITDA margins to 18.5% by enhancing operating efficiency and clinker capacity from the current 22.4 mtpa to 27.1 mtpa, which is expected to be commissioned in FY26. 

    Axis Securities has retained a ‘Buy’ rating on Dalmia Bharat with a target price of Rs 2,040. The brokerage projects the company will grow its Volume/Revenue/EBITDA at a CAGR of 9%, 7%, 9% respectively over FY25-FY26. It adds that with the current capacity utilisation at 58%, there is substantial scope for the company to increase its utilisation levels.

    5. Kajaria Ceramics:

    Thisfurnishing company fell 5% on October 22 after announcing itsQ2FY25 results. The company’s net profit declined 22.8% YoY to Rs 85.5 crore, missingTrendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 20.2%. However, revenue rose by 5.1% to Rs 1,179.3 crore. Demand for tiles was subdued in Q2FY25 due to excessive rainfall in August and September across India. Despite the weak demand environment, Kajaria's tile volumegrew by 8.5% to 28.7 million square meters (MSM).

    Kajaria Ceramics generates most of its revenue from tiles, which accounts for 88% to 93% of total revenue. In Q2FY25, tiles accounted for approximately 88% of the total revenue. The remaining revenue comes from non-tiles segments, which include bathware (Rs 90.1 crore, 8% of total revenue), adhesives (Rs 18.2 crore), and plywood (Rs 17.5 crore).

    Ashok Kajaria, Chairman and Managing Director of the companysaid, “The second half will be better than quarter one and quarter two. So we are looking at a 9-10% volume growth for the full year (FY25) and margin guidance would be 15-17% this year.” Over the longer term, management believes they can achieve a CAGR of 11.5% for tile volumes from FY25 to FY27, leading to a total volume of 150 MSM. As part of their three-year vision, Kajaria Ceramics aims to expand its reach to over 2,000 towns across India, up from the current presence in 1,000 towns.

    Post results, ICICI Directmaintains its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 1,500. The brokerage expects the company’s tile volume and revenue to grow at around 10% annually between FY25 and FY27. EBITDA margins are projected to be 15% in FY25, and 15.8% in FY26.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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