Elections took place this year in countries representing nearly half of the world’s population. From Taiwan’s January general election to the US presidential race in November, these pivotal votes came amid climate change, inflation, and global economic and geopolitical tensions. Key issues shaping the political landscape include the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, conflicts in the Middle East, and trade friction between the US and China, the two largest economies.
In 2024, there has been a noticeable rise in far-right parties. Right-wing governments often emphasize traditional values, reduced government regulation, and lower immigration. This year saw numerous countries undergo political changes, with new leaders or governments adopting these ideologies. These shifts suggest the rise of policies that challenge the existing global political order.
Modi and Trump’s wins reflect rising rightward movements in India and the US
Narendra Modi’s win in the June election secured his third term as Prime Minister, extending the BJP's leadership, but with a smaller majority. The continuity is expected to shape India's economic policies, and its approach to global issues, including climate change and trade. Donald Trump’s recent victory in the US elections highlights that this trend of populist, right-wing leaders winning elections is a global one. These leaders and their parties capitalize on frustrations among working-class voters, particularly of global trade threatening their jobs, and rising immigration. The ongoing cost of living crisis as inflation drove up the price of groceries, also contributed to rising support for far-right movements. Trump's stance on immigration was a central theme in his campaigns, and he has promised that mass deportations will start as soon as he takes office. He’s also committed to ending birthright citizenship, and expanding travel bans.
According to Mohit Kumar, chief economist at Jefferies, immigration has become a particularly potent election issue in large Western economies grappling with aging populations and labor shortages. The increase in immigration from regions like Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East has helped fill job vacancies, but created a fertile ground for nationalist, populist movements.
Moody's ratings indicate that India stands to benefit from these shifts in power. The agency highlights that with Trump at the helm, escalating US-China tensions and potential investment restrictions in critical sectors could lead to a redirection of trade and investment. “In the Asia-Pacific, heightened US scrutiny in strategic sectors may prompt a move away from China, potentially weakening its economy and regional growth. In contrast, countries like India and ASEAN nations could gain new opportunities in this evolving landscape,” Moody's stated.
The European Union which includes countries like Hungary, Slovakia, France, Germany, Austria and Netherlands have also seen right-wing populist parties make strong gains or come to power in recent elections. This shift doesn’t seem to stem directly from factors like high immigration rates or poor economic conditions, but rather from broader geopolitical instability. European voters appear increasingly drawn to alternative approaches, signaling a desire for change.
Some nations shift left amid global changes
While voters in most major economies shifted to the right, there are a few countries that moved left. Left-wing governments advocate for greater social and economic equality, often supporting socially liberal ideas and representing socialist or progressive movements.
The United Kingdom also held elections this year, resulting in a victory for the center-left Labour Party after 14 years of Conservative rule. The UK has experienced several years of turbulence, some caused under the Conservative government and some by external factors, that have left many voters feeling pessimistic about the nation's future. The UK's exit from the European Union, followed by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, severely impacted the economy.
