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Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
05 Dec 2024, 03:54PM
Market closes higher, Aurobindo Pharma's arm Eugia gets US FDA nod for Pazopanib Tablets
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 24,708.40 (241.0, 1.0%), BSE Sensex closed at 81,765.86 (809.5, 1%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 23,277.95 (178.5, 0.8%). Market breadth is horizontal. Of the 2,246 stocks traded today, 1,097 showed gains, and 1,125 showed losses.

Indian indices closed in the green, with the benchmark Nifty 50 index closing at 24,708.4 points. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose 0.6% and closed at 14.5 points. PG Electroplast surged to an all-time high of Rs 825 as its board of directors approved the qualified institutional placement (QIP) of equity shares worth Rs 1,500 crore.

Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 closed higher. Nifty Consumer Durables and Nifty FMCG closed in the green. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Software & Services emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 2.1%.

European indices are trading higher, except for Russia’s RTSI and MOEX indices, which are trading in the red. Major Asian indices closed mixed. US index futures are trading mixed ahead of the weekly jobless claims data print scheduled for release later today, indicating a cautious start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.

  • BSE sees a long buildup in its December 26 futures series, with open interest increasing by 148.6% and a put-call ratio of 0.5.

  • Aurobindo Pharma's wholly-owned subsidiary, Eugia Pharma, gets US FDA approval to manufacture and market Pazopanib Tablets, 200 mg. The drug is used to treat advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and advanced soft tissue sarcoma (STS) in adults who have undergone prior chemotherapy. The product is expected to launch in Q4FY25 and has an estimated market size of Rs 898 crore ($106 million).

  • Marico's board appoints Ashish Goupal as the new Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the India core business, effective April 1, 2025.

  • Zen Technologies is rising as it signs a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Florida-based AVT Simulation. The companies plan to collaborate on developing advanced solutions for defence, emergency response, and commercial applications. This partnership aims to support Zen's entry into the US defence market while helping AVT expand its international business.

  • A Crisil survey shows the changing landscape of South India's real estate market, with cities like Mysuru, Mangalore, Nellore, Vellore, and Amaravati gaining momentum as larger markets slow. Developers remain optimistic about growth, particularly in Kerala, despite changing dynamics. About two-thirds of respondents are positive about Kerala's market, which accounts for 3% of total project registrations in southern states.

  • Sharekhan maintains its 'Buy' call on Mahindra & Mahindra with a higher target price of 3,600 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 18%. The brokerage remains positive on the stock due to strong demand in the PV segment, market leadership in the tractor segment, growth opportunity in the farm machinery segment, and expansion in the EV segment. It expects the firm's net profit to grow at a CAGR of 11.1% over FY25-27.

  • Hyundai Motor India is rising as the company plans to hike the prices of its vehicles with effect from January 1, 2025. The hike is due to increased input & logistics costs and higher exchange rates.

  • NBCC (India) is rising as its arm, HSCC (India), secures orders worth Rs 599.4 crore from the National Health Mission, Maharashtra. These include a Rs 259.4 crore order to establish and operate Hinduhridaysamrat Balasaheb Thackery Aapla Dawakhana, and setting up radiation oncology units in Jalna, Ratnagiri, Baramati, and Dharashiv, for Rs 340 crore.

  • HEG touches a new 52-week high of Rs 619.5 as reports suggest that 28.8 lakh shares (6% equity), amounting to Rs 172 crore have changed hands in a block deal.

  • Genus Power Infrastructure plunges to its 5% lower circuit following a search by the Directorate of Enforcement (ED) at the company’s corporate office and the Chairman’s residence.

  • Suraj Estate Developers is rising as its wholly-owned subsidiary, Iconic Property Developers, acquires a 1,464 square metre land parcel in Mumbai for Rs 101 crore. The company plans to develop a commercial building with an estimated carpet area of 1 lakh square feet and a gross development value (GDV) of approximately Rs 525 crore.

  • Muthoot Microfin is rising as it reduces interest rates for income-generated loans (IGL) by 25 bps to 23.1% and for third-party product loans (TPP) by 125 bps to 22.7%. This is the third reduction in lending rates made by the company.

  • Zomato surges to its 52-week high of Rs 304.6 as Bernstein gives an ‘Outperform’ rating with a target price of Rs 335. The brokerage notes that the company has a wider city presence and higher gross order value per restaurant compared to Swiggy. Bernstein also highlights that Zomato is well-positioned in terms of restaurant partners.

  • Adani Energy Solutions receives a Letter of Intent (LoI) from REC Power Development and Consultancy to establish a transmission system for evacuating power from Rajasthan's Renewable Energy Zone under Phase-III Part-I.

  • KIOCL is rising as it resumes operations at its pellet manufacturing plant in Mangalore.

  • Lemon Tree Hotels is rising as it bags an order from the Directorate of Tourism, Shillong, Government of Meghalaya, to re-develop, operate and maintain Orchid Hotel in Shillong.

  • Jefferies maintains its 'Buy' rating on Shriram Finance, with a target price of Rs 3,670. The brokerage highlights the company's consistent growth outlook, driven by strong asset quality. It projects the company's assets under management (AUM) to expand at a healthy rate of 18% in FY25.

  • Infosys partners with Switzerland-based Kardex to transform its business operations using SAP S/4HANA. The partnership aims to unify Kardex’s enterprise resource planning system across 30 countries, enhancing efficiency and scalability.

  • PG Electroplast surges to its all-time high of Rs 825 per share as its board of directors approves the qualified institutional placement (QIP) of equity shares worth Rs 1,500 crore at a floor price of Rs 705.2 per share.

  • Indraprastha Gas is rising as its board of directors schedules to meet on December 10 to consider and approve the issue of bonus shares to its shareholders.

  • Nomura predicts that RBI will reduce rates by 25 basis points in the latest MPC meeting and a total 100 bps cut by mid-2025, exceeding the expected 50 bps cut. The firm lowers India's FY25 GDP growth forecast to 6%, below the consensus estimate of 6.9% and RBI's projection of 7.2%. Nomura attributes this adjustment to slowing growth and easing inflation.

  • Torrent Pharmaceuticals is rising as it enters an agreement with Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH to acquire three brands - Cospiaq (empagliflozin), Cospiaq Met (empagliflozin and metformin), and Xilingio (empagliflozin and linagliptin). Empagliflozin is a sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitor used for glycemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes and has a market size of Rs 3,235 crore.

  • Vodafone Idea's board of directors schedules a meeting for Monday to consider a fundraising proposal worth Rs 2,000 crore through a preferential allotment of equity shares or convertible securities. The company's UK arm, Vodafone PLC, sold a 3% stake in Indus Towers worth approx. Rs 2,800 crore, which will be used to repay a $101 million (approx. Rs 855.6 crore) debt.

  • Bondada Engineering is rising as it receives a work order worth Rs 108.9 crore from Bihar Renewable Energy Development Agency (BREDA). The project involves installing smart solar street lights on existing electric poles, along with a five-year maintenance contract. It is executed under the Mukhyamantri Gramin Solar Street Light Yojana on an EPC basis.

  • Bharat Forge is rising as its board of directors approves the qualified institutional placement (QIP) of equity shares worth Rs 1,650 crore at a floor price of Rs 1,323.5 per share.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 24,496.75 (29.3, 0.1%), BSE Sensex was trading at 81,182.74 (226.4, 0.3%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 23,141.85 (42.4, 0.2%).

  • Market breadth is ticking up strongly. Of the 1,947 stocks traded today, 1,372 were gainers and 537 were losers.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Indraprastha Gas Ltd. (383.45, 6.4%), Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd. (4,261.25, 4.9%) and Zomato Ltd. (299.35, 4.6%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Oil India Ltd. (473.75, -3.1%), Shree Cements Ltd. (26,608, -2.9%) and Divi's Laboratories Ltd. (6,096.20, -2.6%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

13 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Maharashtra Seamless Ltd. (741.95, 11.4%), Kalpataru Projects International Ltd. (1,249.15, 7.1%) and Indraprastha Gas Ltd. (383.45, 6.4%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Bajaj Auto Ltd. (8,891.95, -1.2%) and Blue Dart Express Ltd. (7,460.20, -0.9%).

Jai Balaji Industries Ltd. (1,021.55, 2.5%) was trading at 11.4 times of weekly average. Indus Towers Ltd. (363.55, 1.8%) and Anand Rathi Wealth Ltd. (4,383.15, 4.8%) were trading with volumes 9.0 and 5.6 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

25 stocks overperformed with 52 week highs, while 1 stock tanked below their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Caplin Point Laboratories Ltd. (2,380.50, 0.8%), City Union Bank Ltd. (185.50, 0.3%) and eClerx Services Ltd. (3,700.75, 2.5%).

Stock making new 52 weeks lows included - Rajesh Exports Ltd. (235.72, 1.4%).

25 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Maharashtra Seamless Ltd. (741.95, 11.4%) and Kalpataru Projects International Ltd. (1,249.15, 7.1%). 17 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Cummins India Ltd. (3,456.70, -2.5%) and Sammaan Capital Ltd. (162.75, -2.4%).

 
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The Baseline
05 Dec 2024, 02:45PM
Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - December 05, 2024
By Divyansh Pokharna

1. Aadhar Housing Finance:

ICICI Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this housing finance company with a target price of Rs 550. This indicates a potential upside of 24.8%. Analysts Renish Bhuva, Chintan Shah, and Palak Bhatt highlight the company’s strong focus on geographical diversification. Unlike many mortgage players, where over 30% of assets under management (AUM) come from a single state, Aadhar Housing Finance (AHF) stands out with no single state contributing more than 15% of its AUM.

The company’s AUM stands at Rs 22,800 crore as of September 2024 which is among the highest in its listed peer group. AHF’s management reported minimal borrowings from the National Housing Bank (NHB) in H1FY25 but expects significant borrowing in H2FY25, which is likely to keep the cost of funds (CoF) in the range of 8.1-8.2%.  

Bhuva, Shah, and Bhatt note that AHF strategically targets the salaried segment beyond tier-2 cities, focusing on low-ticket loans under Rs 15 lakh. Aadhar’s early entry into underserved markets and focus on the formal salaried segment has helped its lending business. They expect AUM to grow at a CAGR of 20.8%, reaching Rs 31,046.2 crore by FY26.

2. The Ramco Cements:

ICICI Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this cement & cement products manufacturer with a target price of Rs 1,130, indicating an upside of 8.6%. The Ramco Cements is primarily based in South India, with around 84% of its cement capacity located in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, while the remainder is in the East. The company added 4.6 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of capacity between FY23 and H1FY25, bringing its total capacity to 24 MTPA, with plans to expand to 30 MTPA by FY26.

The company’s volume growth declined by 0.6% YoY in H1FY25, impacted by elections, monsoon, an extended heatwave, and pressure on cement prices. However, analysts Vijay Goel and Ankit Shah expect a recovery in sales volumes in H2, driven by capacity additions and stronger demand in key markets such as Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh. They believe that Ramco’s focus on expanding capacities at existing locations will support its market share growth.

The company has monetised Rs 376 crore of non-core assets during September-October 2024, aiding debt reduction and to support Rs 1,200 crore capex planned for FY25. Goel and Shah project a 12% revenue CAGR and a 64% net profit CAGR over FY25-27.

3. Lloyds Metals and Energy:

Anand Rathi initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this mining firm with a target price of Rs 1,260, indicating an upside of 17.8%. Lloyds, the only iron ore miner in Maharashtra, holds around 157 million tonnes of extractable iron ore. Analysts Parthiv Jhonsa and Prakhar Khajanchi note that the company’s Surjagarh mine, awarded through an allocation route, exempts it from paying a premium to the government, making it one of the most cost-competitive miners in India.

Lloyds Metals and Energy is establishing integrated steel facilities in Ghughus and Konsari, set to begin operations between FY27-29. The company is also constructing a 10-million-tonne, 85km slurry pipeline between Hedri (pumping station) and the Konsari plant. This pipeline is expected to deliver benefits from FY26 and will save around Rs 600 crore annually when fully utilised.

In Q2FY25, Lloyds’ revenue grew by 25% YoY to Rs 1,364.4 crore, surpassing Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 12.5%. However, its EBITDA margin declined by 130 bps to 24.9%, but analysts remain positive about margin growth. Jhonsa and Khajanchi said, “The company’s strong presence in Maharashtra and the development of integrated steel plants are expected to improve margins. Additionally, the construction of a slurry pipeline is likely to further drive up the EBITDA margin.”

4. Hindustan Unilever:

Motilal Oswal reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this personal products company with a target price of Rs 3,100, indicating an upside potential of 25.8%. In Q2FY25, the company reported a revenue growth of 2.1% YoY to Rs 16,145 crore, driven by the home care and beauty & wellbeing segments.

Despite a muted quarter for FMCG overall, analysts Naveen Trivedi and Tanu Jindal highlight that the company has a pipeline of innovative products in skin care and home care, aimed at capturing additional market share in the premium segment. The company is focusing on offering more premium products in beauty & wellbeing (B&W) and foods & refreshments (F&R) segments. HUL has a vast distribution network of 9 million outlets. Its Shikhar app services 1.4 million outlets, handling 50% of traditional trade demand. 

The analysts said, “The company remains focused on volume-led growth, complemented by low single-digit price hikes to offset raw material pressures.” HUL has achieved 30% ecommerce CAGR over the past three years.

Trivedi and Jindal note that the company aims for strong turnover growth by increasing volume, offering premium products, and changing its portfolio in B&W and F&R. They expect a CAGR of 7% in sales, 8% in EBITDA, and 9% in net profit over FY25-27.

5. Anant Raj:

Emkay initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this realty company with a target price of Rs 925, indicating an upside potential of 28.1%. In Q2FY25, the company reported a net profit growth of 75.7% YoY to Rs 105.6 crore and revenue rose 54.3% to Rs 512.9 crore.

Analysts Ashwani Sharma, Harsh Pathak and Chinmay Kabra note that the company owns 220 acres of land, with approximately 120 acres of land yet to be developed. Also, the company has around 101 acres of land bank in Delhi which has a development potential of around 12 million square feet (msf), supporting its ability to launch new projects. The company plans to increase its data center and cloud capacity to 307 megawatts (MW) in the next 4-5 years, up from the current 6 MW. 

Sharma, Pathak and Kabra expect multifold growth in this segment, driven by digital adoption, 5G expansion, better optic fiber networks, and government efforts on data protection. They project residential sales to grow at a CAGR of 18%, reaching Rs 4,600 crore. This, they say, will drive collections to grow at a CAGR of 39%, reaching Rs 2,630 crore between FY25-27, leading to a strong cash flow for the company.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
04 Dec 2024
Market closes flat, Bharti Airtel awards Ericsson a multi-billion 4G and 5G RAN contract
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 24,467.45 (10.3, 0.0%), BSE Sensex closed at 80,956.33 (110.6, 0.1%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 23,099.50 (78.7, 0.3%). Market breadth is in the green. Of the 2,260 stocks traded today, 1,323 were gainers and 913 were losers.

Indian indices closed in the green, with the benchmark Nifty 50 index closing at 24,467.5 points. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, increased by 0.5% and closed at 14.5 points. Swiggy’s Q2FY25 revenue grew by 30.3% YoY to Rs 3,601.5 crore, driven by improvements in the food delivery, quick-commerce, and supply chain & distribution segments. Net loss narrowed 4.8% YoY to Rs 625.5 crore during the quarter.

Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 closed in the green, following the benchmark index. Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Realty were among the top index gainers today. According to Trendlyne’s Sector dashboard, Healthcare Equipment & Supplies emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 3.1%.

Asian indices closed mixed while European indices are trading higher. US index futures traded in the green, indicating a positive start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures are trading in the green. Salesforce surged more than 10% in premarket trading after the cloud-based software company exceeded Q3 revenue expectations and raised the lower end of its annual revenue forecast, driven by strong demand for its enterprise cloud portfolio.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like The Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore, HEG, Laurus Labs and Caplin Point Laboratories are in the overbought zone.

  • Nazara Technologies is rising as it signs a letter of intent with Lysto to launch "The Growth Protocol," a blockchain-based Layer 1 infrastructure focused on digital marketing and growth applications.

  • Newgen Software Technologies rises sharply as it accepts a purchase order from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The order, valued at over Rs 32 crore, involves the implementation and maintenance of the regulatory application management system (RAMS).

  • Alembic Pharmaceuticals receives approval from the US FDA for its abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) for Olopatadine hydrochloride ophthalmic solution, used to temporarily relieve itchy eyes. The product is an equivalent of Alcon Laboratories’ Pataday Once Daily Relief hydrochloride ophthalmic solution, with an estimated market size of $22 million in the year ending September 2024, according to IQVIA.

  • The Association of Mutual Funds in India(AMFI) is set to re-categorize certain stocks in January 2025. Varun Beverages and ABB likely enter the large-cap space, while Timken and Metro Brands will move to midcaps. A total of 12 stocks are set for an upgrade from small to midcap status.

  • Geojit BNP Paribas downgrades Finolex Cables to 'Accumulate' from 'Buy' but upgrades target price of Rs 1,354 per share due to a reduction in expected earnings. This implies a potential upside of 11.2%. However, the brokerage believes the company's growth will return to normalised levels, led by improved construction activity and increased government spending on infrastructure in H2FY25. It expects the firm's net profit to grow at a CAGR of 15% over FY25-26.

  • Star Cement is rising as Adani Group's unit, Ambuja Cement, is reportedly in talks to acquire the company to strengthen its presence in the Northeast.

  • Honasa Consumer rises sharply as its co-founder Varun Alagh increases his stake to 31.9% with a Rs 4.5 crore investment.

  • Bajaj Auto cuts prices of its newly launched 'Freedom 125CC' bi-fuel powered motorcycle by Rs 5000-10,000 for entry & mid level variants. UBS maintains its 'Sell' rating on the company with a target price of Rs 7,900, noting that the price cut could lead to potential downside risks to market estimates. It also highlights that Bajaj Auto is facing weak demand, with domestic sales down 7% YoY in November, despite the festive season.

  • Cyient DLM signs a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Arcedo Systems to set up a 500 kilowatt peak (kWp) rooftop solar power plant at Cyient's Mysore facility.

  • Adani Energy Solutions reportedly emerges as the preferred bidder for a Rs 25,000 crore transmission project under Rajasthan Part-I Power Transmission. The project includes building 6 GW HVDC (high-voltage direct current) terminal stations at Bhadla (Rajasthan) and Fatehpur (Uttar Pradesh), along with a transmission line and AC network between the stations.

  • Bharti Airtel awards Ericsson a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar contract extension to deploy 4G and 5G random access network (RAN) solutions in India. The deal includes centralized RAN, Open RAN-ready solutions, and 4G radio software upgrades.

  • Defence stocks are rising around 4% after the Defence Acquisition Council approves five capital acquisition proposals totaling over Rs 21,772 crore. The procurement includes equipment for the Indian Navy, Coast Guard, and Air Force to boost India's maritime operations, coastal security, and aircraft defense.

  • Suzlon Energy is rising after expanding its partnership with Jindal Renewables' arm, JSP Green Wind, to develop an additional 302.4 MW wind power project in Karnataka.

  • Wonderla Holidays surges as it opens a qualified institutional placement (QIP) with a floor price of Rs 829.7 per share. The company's board approved raising around Rs 800 crore through multiple funding options, including a QIP on October 4.

  • NBCC (India) is rising as it receives a work order worth Rs 213 crore from Motilal Nehru College, New Delhi, to upgrade the infrastructure of an auditorium, expand academic buildings, and build a hostel at Delhi University. The project will be completed in phases.

  • India’s services PMI declines marginally to 58.4 in November from 58.5 in October. The PMI reading, however, stays above the 50 mark for the 40th consecutive month, driven by a surge in hiring and growth in new orders in the services sector.

  • Swiggy rises as its Q2FY25 revenue grows by 30.3% YoY to Rs 3,601.5 crore, driven by improvements in the food delivery, quick-commerce, and supply chain & distribution segments. Net loss narrows 4.8% YoY to Rs 625.5 crore during the quarter. The company features in a screener of stocks gaining over 20% in a month.

  • Aditya Birla Capital invests Rs 300 crore in its subsidiary, Aditya Birla Housing Finance, through a rights issue of equity shares.

  • L&T Technology Services secures a $50 million multi-year contract with a global network solutions firm to serve as a strategic partner. The agreement focuses on providing product integration services in North America.

  • JSW Infrastructure is rising as Investec initiates coverage with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 370. The brokerage has a positive outlook on the company due to its strong growth prospects, driven by third-party cargo expansion at the new terminal and higher JSW Group traffic from FY27E. Investec also notes that the premium valuations look justified.

  • Reliance Power surges to its 5% upper circuit as the Solar Energy Corp of India (SECI) withdraws its order, barring the company and its subsidiaries from participating in tenders issued by the SECI.

  • Indian Energy Exchange is rising as its electricity volume increases by 16% YoY to 9,689 million units (MU) in November. IEX Green Market achieves a volume growth of 331.8% YoY to 818 MU.

  • Oil & Natural Gas Corp invests Rs 4,906.2 crore in its subsidiary ONGC Petro Additions (OPaL) through a rights issue of 490.6 shares.

  • Rail Vikas Nigam is rising as it receives an order worth Rs 186.8 crore from East Central Railway. The contract includes the design, supply, erection, testing, and commissioning of traction substations and switching posts. The project upgrades the electric traction system in the Gomoh-Patratu section of the Dhanbad Division to a dual 25 kV system.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 24,479.25 (22.1, 0.1%) , BSE Sensex was trading at 81,036.22 (190.5, 0.2%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 23,069.65 (48.8, 0.2%).

  • Market breadth is surging up. Of the 1,935 stocks traded today, 1,376 were in the positive territory and 511 were negative.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include UCO Bank (50.39, 11.7%), Indian Overseas Bank (58.97, 8.3%) and Central Bank of India (61.01, 7.6%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Adani Green Energy Ltd. (1,260.85, -4.0%), Adani Total Gas Ltd. (746.65, -2.6%) and Vedant Fashions Ltd. (1,351.40, -2.5%).

Volume Shockers

28 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included HEG Ltd. (581.65, 16.2%), KEC International Ltd. (1,240.40, 13.3%) and Swan Energy Ltd. (709.40, 12.3%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Ltd. (3,325.10, -1.3%) and UTI Asset Management Company Ltd. (1,305.10, -0.3%).

Star Cement Ltd. (207.64, 6.2%) was trading at 41.7 times of weekly average. UCO Bank (50.39, 11.7%) and Central Bank of India (61.01, 7.6%) were trading with volumes 21.9 and 8.8 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

23 stocks made 52 week highs, while 2 stocks were underachievers and hit their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Caplin Point Laboratories Ltd. (2,362.50, 2.2%), City Union Bank Ltd. (184.88, 1.1%) and eClerx Services Ltd. (3,611.40, 1.5%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - Rajesh Exports Ltd. (232.59, -1.3%) and C.E. Info Systems Ltd. (1,571.30, 2.2%).

34 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Central Bank of India (61.01, 7.6%) and Star Cement Ltd. (207.64, 6.2%). 8 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd. (162.48, -2.2%) and Cipla Ltd. (1,500.85, -2.2%).

 
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The Baseline
03 Dec 2024
By Aditi Priya

The RBI's monetary policy review meeting, scheduled for December 4-6, comes at a time when markets have turned volatile, with foreign fund outflows, sticky food inflation, and global uncertainty. India's GDP growth number for Q2FY25 also landed with a thud, slowing to 5.4% in Q2FY25, far below estimates and the lowest in two years.

Gaura Sen, chief economist at IDFC Bank, lowered India’s overall FY25 GDP growth forecast to 6.3% from 6.6%. She noted that much of the weakness in the first half has come from, “a slowdown in urban demand and decline in government capital expenditure.” Brokerages like Nomura and ICICI Securities also lowered their FY25 GDP growth estimates. While Nomura and HSBC expect a rate cut in December from the RBI, consensus still remains that RBI might start rate cuts only in February 2025.  

Indian Inc’s results season was pretty muted, with many companies missing earnings expectations. This triggered an equity selloff. JM Financial analyzed 227 companies under its coverage and found that 45% missed earnings estimates, highlighting a challenging quarter.

In this week's Chart of the Week, we explore the Trendlyne's Results Dashboard to analyze which industries excelled and which ones underperformed.

Exchanges & capital markets firms continue to outperform in Q2FY25

India’s capital markets have steadily grown in recent years, with the trend continuing in the last quarter. Despite the recent volatility, markets hit new highs, with Nifty50 near its all-time high of 26,179 after rising 20.5% over the past year. As per Trendlyne's Results Dashboard, the exchange industry reported a remarkable 94.8% YoY revenue growth in Q2FY25, with operating profit margins soaring 71.3% in the same period due to increased activity in the equity derivatives segment and higher daily premium turnover. 

BSE posted a threefold jump in net profit, reaching Rs 346.8 crore for the September quarter. The average daily premium turnover in the equity derivatives segment soared to Rs 8,203 crore in Q2FY25, compared to Rs 768 crore in the same quarter last year. Similarly, MCX India's revenue jumped 68.8% YoY, rising to Rs 310.8 crore.

The capital markets industry saw overall revenue and operating profit margin growth of 44.7% and 12% respectively, in Q2. Firms like Motilal Oswal Financial Services, ICICI Securities and Angel One contributed to this surge.

Consumer electronics see growth, realty sector shows mixed performance

The consumer electronics industry saw average revenue growth of 61.3% YoY, while net profit jumped 170.7%. Once considered a luxury, room air-conditioners (AC) have become popular as summers have become hotter. AC manufacturers like Voltas and Blue Star reported net profit growth of 265.3% and 36.1% respectively in Q2FY25, driven by high demand. The operating profit margin for Voltas surged by nearly 102% and by 1.1% for Blue Star as it is significantly increasing its production and capacity to prepare better for the upcoming summer.

Voltas' unitary cooling products segment, which includes split and window AC, maintained strong growth momentum. The segment outperformed the market with a 56% surge in volumes. The company retained its leadership position in the AC segment, achieving a 21% market share as of September 2024. The AC segment revenue rose by an impressive 45% to Rs 5,384 crores, compared to Rs 3,723 crores in the same period last year. 

Another consumer electronics front-runner, Dixon Technologies posted better-than-expected Q2FY25 results. This was led by a 235% YoY revenue increase in the mobile segment. Acquisition of Ismartu in August 2024, boosted mobile production and volumes from brands like Itel, Infinix, and Tecno. The company’s net profit jumped by nearly 263% to Rs 390 crore in Q2 from Rs 107.3 crore last year. Operating profit margin also increased marginally. The company’s booming mobile phone manufacturing segment contributed 73% to the operating profit and 82% to the total revenue.

Meanwhile, the realty industry had a mixed performance in Q2FY25, with both winners and losers. Average revenue growth stood at 26.3%, with operating profit margins rising by 68.3%. Companies like Godrej Properties, Sobha, and DLF played a key role, growing due to new project launches and higher retail demand in Q2. However, the sector's net profit fell by 17.7% in the September quarter. Prestige Estates reported a 77.4% drop due to a Rs 106 crore deferred tax impact, mainly from tax code changes, including the removal of indexation benefits on capital gains.

Gems & jewellery industry report strong growth, while movies & entertainment faces a decline

The gems & jewellery industry witnessed a 54.8% revenue growth and 76% operating profit margin growth, on average. In the spotlight was industry leader Titan, which reported a 15.8% increase in revenue, but its net profit dropped by 23% due to a reduction in customs duty. The customs duty cut led to lower gold prices, boosting jewellery sales. However, increased costs and reduced margins affected net earnings. The company saw its standalone jewellery business revenue grow 26% to Rs 10,763 crore compared to the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, Kalyan Jewellers saw a nearly 37.6% surge in revenue, though its operating profit margin fell by around 24% due to the fluctuating gold prices. Senco Gold also contributed to the overall industry growth with positive revenue, net profit and operating margin growth in Q2FY25. 

The movies and entertainment industry experienced a 13.4% drop in revenue. India’s largest multiplex chain, PVR Inox, reported its third consecutive quarterly loss as the growing popularity of streaming services kept audiences at home, impacting box-office collections and food and beverage sales. 

Movie theaters have been struggling with low footfalls in recent quarters as higher inflation has led consumers to cut back on discretionary spending. In response, multiplexes have introduced lower-priced weekday passes and reduced popcorn prices to attract customers.

Cement industry and roads & highways witness revenue moderation in Q2FY25

Both cement and roads & highways industries reported a decline in revenue growth YoY in Q2. The cement industry’s average revenue and net profit growth declined by 1.4% and 75.4%, respectively in Q2. This was due to weak demand during the monsoon season. UltraTech Cement, the market leader, saw its first quarterly revenue drop in four years, with a 2% and 19% decline in revenue and operating profit margin, respectively. Grasim Industries also saw a 66.5% decline in net profit and a 22.3% reduction in its operating profit margin.

Similarly, the roads and highways industry's average revenue declined by 11.7% during Q2, but operating profit margins edged up by 0.8%. IRB Infrastructure reported a 6% decline in revenue growth for the quarter, while operating profit margins increased by 6%. Virendra Mhaiskar, Chairman and MD of IRB Infrastructure said, “We anticipate better performance in the upcoming quarters, driven by the end of the monsoon season, the onset of the festive season, and accelerated progress in under-construction projects."

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
03 Dec 2024
Market closes higher, Coal India signs an MoU with BPCL for a natural gas project
By Trendlyne Analysis

Markets closed up today. Nifty 50 closed at 24,457.15 (181.1, 0.8%) , BSE Sensex closed at 80,845.75 (597.7, 0.7%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 23,020.85 (185, 0.8%). Market breadth is surging up. Of the 2,279 stocks traded today, 1,609 were on the uptick, and 643 were down.

Nifty 50 closed higher after gaining throughout the day. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, fell 2.2% and closed at 14.4 points. KPI Green Energy rose to its 5% upper limit as it secured an order worth Rs 1,311 crore from Coal India to set up a 300 megawatt solar photovoltaic plant.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green. Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Media Index were among the top index gainers today. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Transportation emerged as the top-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 3%.

Asian indices closed in the green. European indices are trading in the green, except for Russia’s RTSI and MOEX indices, which are trading in the red. US index futures are trading flat, as investors are looking ahead to Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) jobs data later in the day, indicating a cautious start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures are trading higher as traders awaited the outcome of an OPEC+ meeting later this week.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that stocks like The Ramco Cements, Laurus Labs, Aster DM Healthcare, and CCL Products India are in the overbought zone.

  • BOB Capital retains its 'Buy' call on Hindustan Unilever with a target price of Rs 3,077 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 24.1%. The brokerage expects a favourable monsoon, improvement in agri-yield, and recovery in the rural areas to increase the company's sales and earnings. It expects the firm's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 8% over FY25-26.

  • Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders is rising as its board sets December 27 as the record date for its stock split, dividing one equity share of face value of Rs 10 each fully paid up into two equity shares of Rs 5 each.

  • Sky Gold surges to its 5% upper circuit as its board of directors sets December 16 as the record date for its 9:1 bonus share issue.

  • UBS initiates coverage on Indian real estate companies, rating DLF & Prestige Estates 'Buy' and Oberoi Realty 'Neutral' with target prices of Rs 1,005, Rs 2,175, and Rs 2,230, respectively. The brokerage believes the realty sector is in a "sweet spot," fueled by a unique combination of favorable factors expected to sustain growth for the next three to five years.

  • Tata Power rises as its subsidiary, Tata Power Renewable Energy, commissions a 431 MW direct current (DC) solar project at Neemuch, Madhya Pradesh. The project, spanning 1,635.6 acres, integrates advanced technology to improve efficiency by over 15% and reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 7,80,300 tonnes.

  • Vakrangee surges to its 5% upper circuit as it enters an agreement with the Central Bank of India to offer banking services across India as a Corporate Business Correspondent (CBC).

  • HDFC Bank is rising as 21.7 lakh shares, worth approximately Rs 396 crore, reportedly change hands in a block deal at an average price of Rs 1,822.7 per share.

  • KPIT Technologies rises over 7% as JP Morgan maintains its 'Overweight' rating with a target price of Rs 1,900. The brokerage anticipates a recovery despite recent underperformance. While investment in EV and hybrid technologies has slowed, it expects continued, though measured, investment. JP Morgan names the stock its top pick among ER&D firms, forecasting growth from 2025 driven by a recovery in the auto sector.

  • TBO Tek falls sharply as 64.3 lakh shares (5.9% stake), worth Rs 951 crore, reportedly change hands in a block deal at an average price of Rs 1,476 per share.

  • Tata Consultancy Services is rising as it partners with the Bank of Bhutan to upgrade its digital infrastructure. TCS will implement its BaNCS Global Banking Platform to improve the bank's operations and integrate with Bhutan's digital public services.

  • Nazara Technologies is rising as it invests Rs 196 crore in its subsidiaries, Nodwin Gaming, Absolute Sports & Datawrkz, and to acquire a 60% stake in Funky Monkeys & Learntube.

  • Kotak Equities expects RBI's monetary policy committee to keep the repo rate unchanged in the upcoming meeting, citing high inflation in October-November, focus on disinflation, and global economic impacts. The firm also anticipates a 50 bps Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) cut, infusing around Rs 1.2 lakh crore of liquidity and signaling the start of a monetary easing cycle.

  • Gland Pharma is rising as it receives approval from the US FDA for its latanoprost ophthalmic solution, used to treat high eye pressure in patients with ocular hypertension. The product is equivalent to the reference listed drug, Xalatan latanoprost ophthalmic solution, the market size of which is expected to reach $1.5 billion in 2024.

  • Pricol is rising as its subsidiary, Pricol Precision Products, acquires the injection-moulded plastic component division of Sundaram Auto Components (a wholly-owned subsidiary of TVS Motor) for Rs 215.3 crore. The company's board also approves an investment of up to Rs 120 crore to support the subsidiary’s operations and growth.

  • Indegene falls sharply as 1.1 crore shares (4.7% stake), worth Rs 707 crore, reportedly change hands in a block deal at an average price of Rs 623 per share. Global PE firm Carlyle-backed CA Dawn Investments is the likely seller in the transaction.

  • Zen Technologies declines over 4% as reports suggest that 21.4 lakh shares (2.6% equity), amounting to Rs 386.1 crore, have changed hands in a block deal.

  • Coal India rises as it signs a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) to explore setting up a coal-to-synthetic natural gas project at Western Coalfields (WCL).

  • Protean eGov Technologies is rising as it receives a work order worth Rs 161 crore from the Central Registry of Securitisation Asset Reconstruction and Security Interest of India (CERSAI). The company will act as the system integrator for designing, developing, implementing, and maintaining the Central KYC Records Registry (CKYCRR 2.0).

  • E2E Networks is rising as it enters an agreement with Larsen & Toubro to expand E2E's data centre capacity to 10,200 KW from 4,200 KW over the next five years.

  • Food, beverage, and tobacco companies like ITC, Godfrey Phillips, and Varun Beverages are falling after a panel of state ministers recommend a sharp tax hike for “sin goods”, including tobacco products and aerated drinks, to 35% from 28% currently, under the goods and services tax (GST) framework.

  • MOIL is rising as its November sales increase 32% YoY to 1.3 lakh tonnes. The company's production rises marginally YoY to 1.6 lakh tonnes.

  • KPI Green Energy rises sharply as it bags an order worth Rs 1,311 crore from Coal India to set up a 300 megawatt alternating current (MW AC) ground-mounted solar photovoltaic (PV) plant. The order will be executed on an engineering, procurement & construction (EPC) basis, including operation and maintenance for the next five years.

  • Solar Industries India is rising as it, along with its subsidiary, secures export orders worth Rs 2,039 crore from international clients to supply defence products; to be delivered over four years.

  • Torrent Power is rising as its board of directors approves the qualified institutional placement (QIP) of shares worth Rs 5,000 crore at a floor price of Rs 1,555.8 per share.

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 24,315.40 (39.4, 0.2%), BSE Sensex was trading at 80,529.20 (281.1, 0.4%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 22,904.05 (68.2, 0.3%).

  • Market breadth is surging up. Of the 1,925 stocks traded today, 1,500 were on the uptrend, and 379 went down.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Torrent Power Ltd. (1,689.10, 6.5%), Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd. (1,288.65, 6.0%) and Tata Elxsi Ltd. (7,098.55, 5.7%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Deepak Nitrite Ltd. (2,627, -4.8%), Vedant Fashions Ltd. (1,388.70, -3.2%) and Mankind Pharma Ltd. (2,559, -2.2%).

Volume Rockets

39 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Jindal Worldwide Ltd. (387.35, 20%), HEG Ltd. (500.55, 14.1%) and Graphite India Ltd. (570.15, 9.2%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Granules India Ltd. (534.15, -10.2%), C.E. Info Systems Ltd. (1,538.10, -9.0%) and Deepak Nitrite Ltd. (2,627, -4.8%).

TTK Prestige Ltd. (879, 3.7%) was trading at 16.8 times of weekly average. NMDC Steel Ltd. (48.25, 5.4%) and RHI Magnesita India Ltd. (553.80, 6.1%) were trading with volumes 12.6 and 11.6 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

19 stocks made 52 week highs, while 1 stock hit their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Caplin Point Laboratories Ltd. (2,312.40, 3.4%), City Union Bank Ltd. (182.90, 1.0%) and Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation Ltd. (1,358.65, -0.7%).

Stock making new 52 weeks lows included - C.E. Info Systems Ltd. (1,538.10, -9.0%).

35 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Jindal Worldwide Ltd. (387.35, 20%) and Graphite India Ltd. (570.15, 9.2%). 7 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including TVS Holdings Ltd. (11,700, -1.7%) and Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Ltd. (3,365.10, -1.0%).

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
02 Dec 2024
Market closes higher, Maruti Suzuki's total wholesales rise 10% YoY in November
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 24,276.05 (145.0, 0.6%), BSE Sensex closed at 80,248.08 (445.3, 0.6%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 22,835.85 (148.9, 0.7%). Market breadth is in the green. Of the 2,301 stocks traded today, 1,430 were in the positive territory and 846 were negative.

Indian indices closed in the green, with the benchmark Nifty 50 index closing at 24,274 points. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, increased by 1.9% and closed at 14.7 points. India’s manufacturing PMI declined to an eleven-month low of 56.5 in November, compared to 57.5 in October, driven by rising input cost inflation.

Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 closed in the green, following the benchmark index. BSE Realty Index and Nifty Realty were among the top index gainers today. According to Trendlyne’s Sector dashboard, Realty emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 2.8%.

Asian indices closed higher while European indices are trading mixed. US index futures traded in the red, indicating a cautious start to the trading session. Brent crude oil futures are trading in the green. Investors are concerned about an impending trade war after Trump threatened on Sunday to impose "100% tariffs" on BRICS nations. He criticized their efforts to create a new currency and move away from the US dollar, warning that the US could cut off trade with the bloc unless they agree to use the dollar.

  • Money flow index (MFI) indicates that stocks like CCL Products India, The Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore, and Ramco Cements are in the overbought zone.

  • Gujarat Gas announces a price hike of Rs 1.5 per kg for compressed natural gas (CNG), effective December 1. The new price will be Rs 77.8 per kg across the state of Gujarat.

  • Sterling Tools rises sharply as its subsidiary, Sterling Tech-Mobility, partners with China's Zhejiang Meishuo Electric to manufacture latching relays for power transmission in India. The partnership is expected to generate Rs 200 crore revenue by FY30 for Sterling Tools, with an initial Rs 20 crore investment.

  • Escorts Kubota is falling as its total wholesales decline 9.4% YoY to 8,974 units in November, while its exports decrease 39.5% to 244 units. The company's domestic wholesales drop by 8.1% to 8,730 units.

  • NMDC's total sales rise 5.5% YoY to 4 million tonnes (MT) in November as its production grows by 18% YoY to 4.5MT.

  • The Centre announces the removal of windfall tax on aviation turbine fuel (ATF), crude oil products, petrol, and diesel, providing relief to oil majors like Reliance and ONGC. The tax, introduced in July 2022 in response to rising global crude prices, was designed to capture revenue from producers' unexpected gains. The removal is expected to provide a significant boost to refining margins.

  • Biocon’s arm Biocon Biologics receives US FDA approval for Yesintek, a biosimilar to Johnson & Johnson’s Stelara (ustekinumab). Yesintek is a monoclonal antibody used to treat Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis, plaque psoriasis, and psoriatic arthritis. The global market size for ustekinumab is projected at around $11.4 billion in 2024.

  • Reports suggest that 1.9 crore shares (21% equity) of Home First Finance have changed hands in a block deal. The company's promoters are the likely sellers in the transaction.

  • HCL Technologies is rising as it partners with Google Cloud Security to deliver AI-driven managed detection and response (MDR) solutions. The service integrates HCLTech’s Fusion Platform with Google Cloud Security technology for better threat detection and response.

  • India’s manufacturing PMI declines to an eleven-month low of 56.5 in November, compared to 57.5 in October, driven by rising input cost inflation.

  • TVS Motor is rising as its wholesales grow 10% YoY to 4 lakh units in November, driven by a 12% YoY increase in two-wheelers and a 57% YoY growth in electric vehicles. Exports surge 25% YoY during the same period.

  • Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone handles 36 million metric tonnes (MMT) of cargo in November, led by a 21% YoY growth in the container segment. January-November cargo volumes grow 7% YoY to 293.7 MMT, driven by containers (19% YoY) and liquids & gas (7% YoY).

  • Cochin Shipyard rises to its 5% upper limit as it secures a contract worth Rs 1,000 crore from the Ministry of Defence (MoD), Government of India, for the short refit and dry docking of a large Indian naval vessel.

  • Morgan Stanley maintains its 'Equal-weight' rating on IndusInd Bank with a lower target price of Rs 1,150. The brokerage highlights the 30% drop in share price following the bank's Q2 earnings, driven by concerns over weak asset quality in the microfinance (MFI) segment. The brokerage notes that the risk-reward isn't unfavorable, but near-term risk leans towards the downside.

  • RBL Bank declines to its 52-week low of Rs 147.5 as it discontinues its eight-year co-branded credit card partnership with Bajaj Finance. This aligns with the bank’s plans to build diverse partnerships with NBFCs like Mahindra & Mahindra Finance, TVS Finance, and other brands like IRCTC and Indian Oil Corp.

  • Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy is rising as it secures a Rs 504 crore order from a repeat customer in Rajasthan for the supply, installation, and commissioning of a 396 megawatt peak direct current (MWp DC) solar project.

  • Mahindra & Mahindra is rising as its wholesales grow by 12% YoY to 79,083 units in November. Passenger vehicle sales increase 16% YoY, while exports are up 53% YoY.

  • India's GDP growth slowed in Q2FY25, primarily due to weaker performance in the industrial sector. This is the slowest growth in seven quarters, prompting economists to revise their full-year growth projections downward. Barclays has lowered its forecast for FY25 to 6.5%, down from the previous estimate of 6.8%. Despite this, there are still expectations of a recovery in the second half of the fiscal year.

  • GP Petroleums rises sharply as it secures a Rs 223 crore supply agreement with Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HPCL) to provide 50,000 metric tonnes of bulk bitumen (VG30) over a year, with a possible extension.

  • Cipla's promoter reportedly sells nearly 1.4 crore shares (1.7% stake), worth Rs 2,000 crore, in a block deal at a floor price of Rs 1,442 per share.

  • Dixon Technologies surges to its 52-week high of Rs 16,824 as its arm, Padget Electronics, signs a contract with Compal Smart Device India to launch the mass production of Google Pixel.

  • India’s GDP slows to a seven-quarter low of 5.4% in Q2FY25, down from 6.7% in Q1, below RBI’s projection of 7% growth. The decline is due to slower growth in manufacturing and deceleration in mining and quarrying.

  • Hero MotoCorp's monthly wholesales decline 6.4% YoY to 4.6 lakh units in November due to lower motorcycle sales and domestic business. However, its exports grow by 35.7% YoY to 20,028 units during the month.

  • Bajaj Auto's domestic wholesales decline by 7% YoY to 2.4 lakh units in November due to a decrease in two-wheeler and commercial vehicle sales by 7% YoY and 5% YoY, respectively. However, the company's exports grow by 24% YoY to 1.8 lakh units during the month.

  • Rail Vikas Nigam is rising as it emerges as the lowest bidder for a contract worth Rs 642.6 crore from Punjab State Power Corp (PSPCL) to upgrade power distribution infrastructure in Punjab’s Central Zone. The project focuses on reducing losses in high-tension and low-tension power lines under the revamped distribution sector scheme (RDSS).

  • KEC International secures orders worth Rs 1,040 crore for its transmission and distribution (T&D) business from international markets. The orders include supplying towers, hardware, and poles in the US and constructing 220 kV transmission lines in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 24,037.75 (-93.4, -0.4%) , BSE Sensex was trading at 79,643.55 (-159.2, -0.2%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 22,630.25 (-56.8, -0.3%)

  • Market breadth is in the red. Of the 2,011 stocks traded today, 837 were on the uptrend, and 1,109 went down.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd. (16,763.90, 6.1%), Indraprastha Gas Ltd. (343.55, 5.1%) and Torrent Power Ltd. (1,586.30, 5%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Adani Total Gas Ltd. (772.55, -4.9%), Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. (807, -4.0%) and UNO Minda Ltd. (1,021.80, -2.8%).

Volume Shockers

24 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Castrol India Ltd. (215.25, 7.2%), Affle (India) Ltd. (1,736.20, 7.2%) and Intellect Design Arena Ltd. (764.10, 6.6%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Emami Ltd. (631.25, -7.7%), Can Fin Homes Ltd. (814.55, -1.1%) and Berger Paints (India) Ltd. (489.60, -0.8%).

Home First Finance Company India Ltd. (1,074.75, 2.2%) was trading at 27.1 times of weekly average. Relaxo Footwears Ltd. (680.20, 1.5%) and Happiest Minds Technologies Ltd. (770.40, 6.5%) were trading with volumes 15.6 and 11.7 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

18 stocks hit their 52 week highs, while 2 stocks tanked below their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Caplin Point Laboratories Ltd. (2,236.05, 1.8%), Divi's Laboratories Ltd. (6,255.35, 1.3%) and eClerx Services Ltd. (3,542.05, 1.6%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - RBL Bank Ltd. (155.96, 0.6%) and Equitas Small Finance Bank Ltd. (62.52, 0.3%).

21 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Torrent Power Ltd. (1,586.30, 5%) and Cochin Shipyard Ltd. (1,656.15, 5%). 16 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Emami Ltd. (631.25, -7.7%) and Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd. (1,090, -2.8%).

 
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The Baseline
29 Nov 2024
Five Interesting Stocks Today - November 29, 2024

1. NBCC (India):

This construction and engineering company rose over 3.2% on Thursday after signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Housing & Urban Development Corp (HUDCO) to develop a 10-acre institutional plot in Noida Sector 62. The project, estimated at Rs 600 crore, will have NBCC as the project management consultant.

NBCC has risen by 6.3% over the month, driven by multiple order wins during November worth more than Rs 1,500 crore (excluding the MoU with HUDCO). These include work orders worth Rs 428 crore from the ST & SC Development Department, Government of Odisha, to upgrade primary school hostels and schools across various locations in the state.

Other orders this month include project management consultancy services for Rajasthan State Industrial Development and Investment Corp and building construction for the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) across five locations, among others. 

During Q2FY25, NBCC reported a 19.8% YoY increase in revenue to Rs 2,458.7 crore, driven by improvements in the PMC (project management consultancy), real estate, and EPC (engineering procurement and construction) segments. Net profit increased 53.4% YoY to Rs 122.1 crore during the quarter, (the company incurred an exceptional expense of Rs 65.4 crore in Q2FY24). 

The company’s current order book stands at Rs 84,400 crore. During the first half of the year, NBCC secured Rs 28,100 crore worth of orders, up 19.6% YoY. With a strong order pipeline in place, the focus now falls on the execution of projects. Speaking on this, Kellambally Mahadevaswamy, CMD of the company said, “This is one of the highest ever business secured in six months. We are targeting to take it up to Rs 1 lakh crore at the end of this financial year”.

Trendlyne classifies NBCC (India) as an Expensive Performer. The company is trading in the Strong Sell Zone, indicating that it is currently trading above its historical PE.

2. LTIMindtree:

This IT software firm has risen by 4.1% in the past week, following two developments. The company entered a partnership with Microsoft to jointly invest in AI-powered solutions and create go-to-market strategies, aimed at helping clients accelerate AI adoption. Additionally, Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) increased its stake in LTIMindtree (LTIM) from 5% to 7% between March 20 and November 19, 2024, now holding shares worth approximately Rs 12,630 crore.

LTIM reported a 10.3% QoQ growth in net profit, reaching Rs 1,251 crore in Q2FY25, surpassing Trendlyne Forecaster’s estimates by 1.8%. Revenue also rose 3.9% to Rs 9,731.8 crore, driven by growth in the banking, financial services & insurance (BFSI) and technology, media & communications segments. The EBIT margin improved modestly by 50 bps QoQ to 15.5%. The company features in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue every quarter for the past two quarters. 

The company secured $1.3 billion in deal wins in Q2, including a $200 million multi-year deal in the manufacturing segment. The company has a strong deal pipeline, with a total contract value (TCV) of $5 billion. Over the past 18 months, LTIM has closed 45+ large deals worth $2 billion, with a balanced portfolio: 30% in banking, financial services & insurance (BFSI), 33% in manufacturing, and 31% in communications. 

However, the management expects Q3 to face seasonal headwinds and furloughs (temporary employee absences), which could moderate its momentum to some extent. Chief Financial Officer Vipul Chandra said, “We expect a 200 bps margin impact from wage hikes and furloughs in Q3. Our target EBIT margin is 17-18%, but achieving this will depend on the industry returning to double-digit growth.” Analysts believe that increased spending by BFSI clients on transformation projects will drive growth, despite margin pressures.

LTIM plans to expand its scaled verticals, such as BFSI and Technology, and accelerate overall growth. The management sees AI as its key focus and expects Gen AI to drive the next wave of productivity. It has recently established an AI innovation center in Bengaluru, in partnership with IBM, to accelerate AI adoption for clients.

Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this stock with a target price of Rs 7,400, indicating a potential upside of 19.9%. The brokerage is confident in the company's expertise in data engineering and ERP modernization, positioning it well to benefit from pre-GenAI investments. It expects a net profit CAGR of 19.2% over FY25-27. However, the firm is in the PE Sell Zone, currently trading above its historical PE.

3. Tips Music:

Thismedia and entertainment company gained 3% on November 25 after announcing a direct strategicpartnership with TikTok, the short-form video platform owned by ByteDance. The deal will promote Tips music library globally, excluding India and China.

The agreement between Tips Music and TikTok aims to meet the increasing global demand for Indian music, particularly among non-resident Indians (NRIs) and expatriates. Through this agreement, TikTok users will have access to over 31,000 songs from Tips Music's library, featuring genres from Bollywood classics to regional language hits.

Kumar Taurani, Managing Director of TIPS Musicsaid, “This direct strategic partnership with ByteDance marks an important step in expanding the global footprint and engagement of TIPS Music. The TikTok platform has a massive audience base and this deal improves the discovery of our music.”

InQ2FY25, the company reported a net profit growth of 21.5% YoY to Rs 48.2 crore, while revenue surged 33.7% YoY to Rs 86.2 crore. This growth is attributed to the increasing contribution from digital platforms such as YouTube, Spotify, Saavn, Amazon Music, and Apple Music. Managementexpects overall revenue and net profit to grow by 30% for FY25 and plans to increase market share from the current 8-9% to 10-11% within the next 3-4 years.

Yes Securities hasinitiated a ‘Buy’ rating on Tips Music, with a target price of Rs 1,050. The brokerage believes that favourable industry trends, a strong content acquisition strategy and improved licensing laws will benefit the company in the medium term. They expect revenue and EPS to grow at a CAGR of 38% each over FY25-27, driven by a mix of growth in advertising revenues and premium subscriptions.

4. L&T Finance:

ThisNBFC surged 3.4% over the past week as itannounced a multi-year partnership with Amazon Finance India, a lending service provider to offer loan products through Amazon’s app and website. This will help L&T Finance (LTF) diversify its loan book as it extends loans to Amazon’s merchants as well as customers.

InQ2FY25, the company reported revenue growth of 15.6% YoY at Rs 4,024 crore, with net profit rising 16.9% YoY to Rs 696 crore. Both revenue and net profit beat Forecaster estimates marginally. As disbursements in the retail segment increased 12% YoY, assets under management (AUM) grew 28% YoY to Rs 88,975 crore. Credit costs stayed almost flat YoY which led to 32 bps YoY growth in net interest margins.

During itsinvestor day on November 25, LTF provided insights into its project Cyclops, which is an AI-based underwriting engine still in its beta phase. Managing Director and CEO, Sudipta Roy, says, “Cyclops will help the company transition from a wholesale dominant franchise to a retail-focused NBFC.” Management at LTF highlighted that they introduced the Cyclops project to the two-wheeler business in June ‘24.

Before Cyclops, LTF was able to handle 8,000 requests per day, but now it can handle over 2 lakh requests per day. Customer mix has also improved and shifted towards the ones that have the least number of delinquencies (failed payments by borrowers) due to improved borrower segmentation.

ICICI Securitiesmaintains a ‘Buy’ rating on L&T Finance as they expect these new initiatives to improve operational efficiency. LTF also plans to introduce an automated risk management system by September 2026, which will be able to generate early warning signals resulting in a further decline in credit costs. With AUM growth of 20-25% on a sustained basis, the company aims to double its loan book in the next 3-4 years.

5. Sobha:

This realty company has gained over 10% in the past week after it posted its Q2FY25 result on 15th November. Its net profit rose 74.6% YoY to Rs 26.1 crore, while its revenue increased by 24.8% YoY on the back of a 43.7% rise in real estate segment revenue. The company beat the Trendlyne Forecaster estimates for revenue by 15.5%. However, it missed the net profit estimate by 37.7% as its EBITDA margin contracted by 192bps YoY to 9%. It appears in a screener of stocks which have consistently given high returns over five years in Nifty500.

Q2FY25 was a mixed quarter for the company, with a 32% YoY decline in pre-sales, primarily due to lower demand for recent launches in the first half of the year. The company’s contract manufacturing segment also saw a 22.9% YoY revenue decline. However, completions were up by 28% YoY to around 0.9msf, supporting strong revenue growth. The company’s residential segment has been a growth driver for the company with its collections rising by 8.6% YoY to Rs 2,614 crore due to new launches. Also, the company's extensive land bank across multiple cities has further strengthened its market position.

Analysts note that the company has resolved its debt issues through better operating cash flow and successful completion of its Rs 2,000 crore rights issue, positioning it for aggressive growth. They also mention that the promoter is gradually increasing their stake, and Sobha is expanding its portfolio by acquiring land and forming more joint ventures.

Jagadish Nangineni, managing director of the company, on the EBITDA margins said, “The contracts and manufacturing can give much better margin once we choose the right set of contractual projects or we choose to deemphasize on some of kind of contracts that we are currently undertaking like civil in nature”. He adds that, “The revenue yet to be recognized from the sales that have been done till date, stands at about Rs 14,500 crore and the blended margin for this unrecognized revenue is over 33% and which would be recognized in the next 4 to 5 years.” On FY25 guidance he added, “Our previous guidance of Rs 8,500 crore in pre-sales depends on the timing of our expected launches in the next 5 months. We're hopeful that things will align, but a clearer picture will emerge in the next 2 months as we roll out new products.” 

Geojit BNP Paribas has retained an ‘Accumulate’ rating on Sobha with a target price of Rs 1,802. The brokerage expects the company to do well in H2FY25 on the back of planned launches of ~5.5msf in the latter half, from its massive pipeline of ~19.3msf. However, it also points out that as a premium player in the sector, any moderation in real estate demand is a key risk along with any delay in obtaining approvals.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

 
Trendlyne Marketwatch
Trendlyne Marketwatch
29 Nov 2024
Market closes higher, Power Mech bags an order worth Rs 510 crore from Adani Power
By Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed at 24,131.10 (217.0, 0.9%) , BSE Sensex closed at 79,802.79 (759.1, 1.0%) while the broader Nifty 500 closed at 22,687 (172.7, 0.8%). Market breadth is in the green. Of the 2,263 stocks traded today, 1,357 were in the positive territory and 867 were negative.

Nifty 50 maintained its gains in the afternoon session to close higher. The Indian volatility index, Nifty VIX, declined 5.1% and closed at 14.4 points. NCC closed over 2% higher as it secured an order worth Rs 3,389.5 crore from the Ken-Betwa Link Project Authority under the Ministry of Jal Shakti, Government of India. 

Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 closed higher. Nifty Consumer Durables and Nifty Auto closed in the green. According to Trendlyne’s sector dashboard, Fertilizers emerged as the best-performing sector of the day, with a rise of 5.4%.

European indices are trading mixed. Major Asian indices closed mixed. US index futures are trading higher, indicating a positive start to the trading session. Brent crude oil prices fell 0.5%. Investors are now focusing on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for December 5.

  • Relative strength index (RSI) indicates that stocks like Coforge, Aster DM Healthcare, Laurus Labs, and CCL Products India are in the overbought zone.

  • Nazara Technologies' subsidiary, NODWIN Gaming, acquires gaming agency Trinity Gaming for Rs 24 crore. The deal involves Rs 4.8 crore in cash and Rs 19.2 crore in equity shares, with completion expected in 60 days.

  • ITC's wholly-owned subsidiary, Russell Credit (RCL), acquires the entire share capital (4.2 crore equity shares of Rs 10 each) of Greenacre Holdings (GHL) for Rs 42.1 crore.

  • Pharma stocks like Divi's Laboratories, Torrent Pharma, Alkem Laboratories, and Cipla rise more than 3% in trade, helping the Nifty Pharma index to surge 2.5%.

  • Ajmera Realty & Infra India rises over 2% as it repays Rs 100 crore of its corporate debt, reducing outstanding borrowings to Rs 693 crore from Rs 793 crore. The debt reduction was funded through a recent equity offering of Rs 225 crore.

  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories is rising as it launches Toripalimab (Loqtorzi) in India, a drug used to treat nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), a form of head and neck cancer.

  • Aster DM Healthcare is rising as it reportedly nears an agreement to merge with Blackstone-backed Quality Care India. The combined entity will consist of over 10,000 beds, making it one of India’s largest hospital chains in terms of revenue and bed capacity.

  • Geojit BNP Paribas upgrades Exide Industries to 'Buy' from 'Hold' but lowers the target price to Rs 517 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 14.8%. The brokerage is positive about the company's medium and long-term outlook due to its focus on developing EV batteries, greenfield expansion of Li-ion batteries, and strong order book. It expects the firm's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 8.2% over FY25-26.

  • Zomato completes its qualified institutional placement (QIP), raising Rs 8,500 crore by issuing 33.7 crore shares at Rs 252.6 each. The company intends to use the proceeds primarily to expand its quick commerce unit, Blinkit, and advertising & marketing initiatives.

  • Fine Organic Industries announces the resumption of manufacturing operations on November 28, following a fire incident at a nearby plant in Badlapur, Maharashtra, in January. The company is working to restore all other plant activities to normalcy.

  • Foreign institutional investors buy equity worth Rs 13,454.4 crore in the market over the past week, according to Trendlyne's FII dashboard. Index options witness the highest outflow of Rs 18,965.1 crore from foreign investors. Meanwhile, mutual funds are net sellers in the equity market, divesting Rs 1,528.1 crore during the same period.

  • Adani Ports is rising as it reportedly signs an agreement with the Kerala government to develop the Vizhinjam Seaport. Under the agreement, Adani Ports will continue the phased development of the Vizhinjam International Seaport. The first phase commissions next month, while the second and third phases are scheduled for completion by 2028.

  • Saurabh Gupta, CFO of Dixon Technologies (India), expects their EBITDA margins to improve by 100-120 bps over the next 24-28 months as mobile component production increases. He projects a revenue of Rs 35,000-40,000 crore for FY25. Gupta highlights plans to collaborate with more Android companies to manufacture phones.

  • PCBL announces the commissioning of the final 20,000 MTPA phase of its 40,000 MTPA specialty chemical capacity at Mundra, Gujarat. This increases the company's total manufacturing capacity to 7.9 lakh MTPA.

  • ICICI Direct retains its 'Buy' call on Brigade Enterprises with a higher target price of Rs 1,450 per share. This indicates a potential upside of 17.7%. The brokerage expects the sustained recovery in commercial leasing & hospitality to drive a stable growth momentum. It expects the firm's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 17.5% over FY25-26.

  • Zee Entertainment Enterprises is rising as its shareholders reject CEO & Managing Director Punit Goenka's reappointment as Managing Director.

  • CreditAccess Grameen falls sharply as Goldman Sachs downgrades its rating to ‘Sell’ from ‘Buy’ earlier, and lowers the target price to Rs 564. According to the brokerage, the earnings visibility looks dim since asset quality remains a concern. It adds that the accelerating decline in asset quality was a negative surprise (gross NPAs rose to 2.4% in Q2), and predicts further deterioration under the new MFI guidelines.

  • Steel Authority of India (SAIL) signs a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with John Cockerill Group's Indian arm to adopt green technologies in iron and steelmaking. The partnership focuses on green steel, silicon steel, and advanced cold rolling processes for sustainable production.

  • Newgen Software Technologies is rising as it receives a purchase order worth Rs 32.4 crore from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The order includes the implementation and maintenance of the Regulatory Application Management System (RAMS).

  • Enviro Infra Engineers’ shares debut on the bourses at a 48.7% premium to the issue price of Rs 148. The Rs 650.4 crore IPO received bids for 89.9 times the total shares on offer.

  • Japan's largest banks, including Mizuho, Sumitomo Mitsui, and Mitsubishi UFJ, intend to continue supporting the Adani Group despite the bribery charges against Gautam Adani in the US. While some global banks are reassessing their exposure, Japanese lenders remain confident in Adani's ability to repay loans, citing the group's stable, cash-generating assets.

  • The Ministry of Power appoints NHPC's Chairman and Managing Director (CMD), Raj Kumar, as the new CMD of SJVN for three months.

  • NCC is rising as it secures an order worth Rs 3,389.5 crore from the Ken-Betwa Link Project Authority under the Ministry of Jal Shakti, Government of India. The project involves planning, design, engineering, and hydro-mechanical works for the Daudhan Dam on an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) basis.

  • PC Jeweller rises sharply as its board of directors approves the stock split of equity shares from one equity share with a face value of Rs 10 into ten equity shares with a face value of Rs 1; sets December 16 as the record date.

  • Reliance Industries’ wholly-owned subsidiary, Reliance Finance and Investments USA, enters a stock purchase agreement with Wavetech Helium to acquire a 21% stake for a total investment of Rs 101.4 crore ($12 million).

  • Nifty 50 was trading at 23975.65 (61.5, 0.3%) , BSE Sensex was trading at 79032.99 (-10.8, 0.0%) while the broader Nifty 500 was trading at 22570.25 (55.9, 0.3%)

  • Market breadth is highly positive. Of the 1894 stocks traded today, 1312 were gainers and 542 were losers.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Adani Green Energy Ltd. (1,323.90, 21.8%), Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. (840.50, 15.6%) and Life Insurance Corporation of India (985.50, 5%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. (2,889.75, -3.7%), Oil India Ltd. (490.60, -2.8%) and Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company Ltd. (1,233.95, -2.7%).

Movers and Shakers

15 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Easy Trip Planners Ltd. (17.99, 10.2%), Piramal Pharma Ltd. (268.75, 9.5%) and Lloyds Metals & Energy Ltd. (1,049.90, 8.4%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were CreditAccess Grameen Ltd. (902, -8.6%), Poonawalla Fincorp Ltd. (354.45, -4.9%) and TVS Holdings Ltd. (1,1620, -2.3%).

Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. (129.16, 4.9%) was trading at 5.8 times of weekly average. Life Insurance Corporation of India (985.50, 5%) and Gujarat State Fertilizer & Chemicals Ltd. (224.13, 4.8%) were trading with volumes 5.7 and 4.9 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

7 stocks hit their 52 week highs, while 3 stocks hit their 52 week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Caplin Point Laboratories Ltd. (2,196.35, 4.2%), Laurus Labs Ltd. (567.15, 2.8%) and Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd. (15,807.40, 1.3%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - CreditAccess Grameen Ltd. (902, -8.6%) and Intellect Design Arena Ltd. (715.45, -0.2%).

22 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Gujarat State Fertilizer & Chemicals Ltd. (224.13, 4.8%) and Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd. (179.04, 3.9%). 5 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd. (1,122.45, -3.0%) and Oil India Ltd. (490.60, -2.8%).

 
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The Baseline
29 Nov 2024
The debate over cutting interest rates | Screener: Stocks outperforming a bearish market
By Swapnil Karkare

One can argue that the Reserve Bank of India works like a game of dominoes. The bank makes one move, and it sets off a whole series of cascading events.

There is a Tom & Jerry cartoon that shows RBI's dilemma (my mother used to claim that cartoons were useless, but I have now proven that this is not true). In the cartoon, Jerry tries to take a piece of cheese. A string tied to the cheese pulls an alarm clock, setting off a series of events which ends up with a very heavy box hitting Tom.

In its role as the central bank, RBI is constantly trying to avoid moves that will result in a heavy hit on the Indian economy. But right now, the economy is in a difficult mood. It's dealing with high inflation, a weakening rupee, and capital outflows.

What can the RBI do? On the one hand, prices are rising and the consumer price index (CPI) has crossed the 6% mark – the upper limit of the target inflation range. On the other hand, a slowing economy is hurting businesses. 

Should RBI hold interest rates at the current level to bring inflation down, or should it cut rates to boost economic growth? The government is on the side of lower interest rates. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has pushed for lower rates to drive GDP growth, and Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has made similar remarks. This has got many hoping that the RBI may cut rates at its next meet.

The central bank however, makes up its own mind. And it sees inflation as a dangerous creature, which if let loose with low interest rates, can create havoc. So it will probably hold rates steady in its December monetary policy meeting, despite the government's displeasure.

A screenshot of a social media post Description automatically generated

In this week's Analyticks,

Push and pull: The debate over interest rates cuts as the Indian economy slows

Screener: Rising stocks recovering towards year highs, and outperforming their sectors

Inflation: No immediate relief in sight

RBI is a cautious central bank, unlikely to cut rates without clear signals. And the big picture is unfriendly right now, because of persistent inflation coming from rising food prices. These increases are partly due to unseasonal rains, which destroyed crops like onions and tomatoes, and strained already fragile supply chains. In October, vegetable prices surged by 42% year-on-year (YoY), driving up the CPI to a 14-month high of 6.2% YoY. 

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, has suggested that the RBI can ignore food inflation when setting rates. However, food makes up nearly half of household expenditure for many Indians. The central bank cannot just ignore the effect of rising food prices on overall demand. 

Despite hopes that food inflation will ease over the next few months as supply conditions improve – thanks to higher mandi arrivals, adequate reservoir levels, and better rabi sowing, the outlook right now is unclear. The State Bank of India (SBI) estimates that consumer inflation will stay higher than the RBI's projection (4.8-4.9% vs. 4.5%) till the end of FY25. This dampens hopes for a rate cut even by February, according to SBI.

Near-term risks: A stronger dollar, and the China factor

Another complicating factor is the stronger US dollar. While a strong dollar has made Indian exports more competitive, India is now importing inflation, particularly in crude oil and other commodities. Being a net importer of goods, imported inflation is hitting India hard. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and UBS expect the dollar to stay strong under a Trump administration, which could keep pushing up the cost of imports.




Then there is China. China is for now, still grappling with deflation, low demand and falling fiscal revenues despite several rounds of stimulus. Lower demand has kept commodity and crude oil prices low.

The CME Group points out that if China can reverse its economic slowdown, we could see higher commodity prices worldwide, so the central bank is keeping an eye on the Chinese recovery. 

Growth vs. Inflation: Walking a tightrope

Remember last month’s newsletter on India’s slowdown? We discussed how lower government spending dragged the economy down. However, post-elections, it has picked up compared to the previous year. The jump in government spending is expected to help the economy recover. 

Motilal Oswal expects a better second half for businesses, driven by higher government expenditure, a robust kharif crop, and strong rural demand. A rate cut may not be needed urgently if these factors kickstart the recovery.

But there are still factors that can drive prices up, from unseasonal rainfall and supply chain issues to global upheaval that hits oil and commodity prices. Governor Das has warned that a rate cut right now would be "very premature" and "risky". 

RBI is unlikely to budge on rate cuts, for now

With high inflation and upward price pressures expected to persist for at least a month, the RBI monetary policy committee is likely to hold rates. Government officials and ministers might not be thrilled with this decision, but it's a common scenario worldwide. Governments often push central banks to cut rates, and rarely call for hikes.

If the economic conditions improve — possibly by February or April 2025, when the MPC meets again —we believe the RBI will be ready to cut rates. Till then, the central bank is likely to keep both the government and investors in a sulk.

Screener: Rising stocks recovering towards year highs, and outperforming their sectors

General Industrials & IT stocks rise the most in the past month

In the current bearish market environment where the Nifty 50 is trading at a discount of 7.9% from its 52-week high of 26,277.6, we look at stocks that have risen the most over the past month, outperforming their sectors and trading near their year highs. This screener shows rising stocks over the past month trading near their year highs which are also outperforming their sectors.

The screener contains stocks from the banking & finance, pharmaceuticals & biotechnology, software & services, general industrials, and diversified consumer services sectors. Notable stocks in the screener are Kirloskar Brothers, Vijaya Diagnostic Centre, Jyoti CNC Automation, KFIN Technologies, Gillette India, Mastek, eClerx Services, and CCL Products India.

Kirloskar Brothers has risen the most, by 36.9% over the past month, helping it to outperform the general industrials sector by 33.4 percentage points. This has helped the stock to recover towards its 52-week high of Rs 2,684 per share and it is currently trading at a discount of 17%. The industrial machinery company (which manufactures engineered, industrial, agriculture and domestic pumps, valves, and hydro turbines) has been on the rise since reporting its Q2FY25 results on October 29 where its revenue and net profit grew by 14.7% YoY to Rs 1,050.1 crore and 89.9% YoY to Rs 95.1 crore, respectively. Its revenue increased on the back of Rs 1,162 crore worth of new orders during the quarter, while its net profit surged, led by higher volumes, cost control initiatives undertaken by the company, and a reduction in raw material prices.

Vijaya Diagnostic Centre comes in next after rising by 27.9% over the past month, outperforming the diversified consumer services sector by 28.6 percentage points. This has helped the stock to recover towards its 52-week high of Rs 1,250 per share and is currently trading at a discount of 7.4% from its year-high. This healthcare services company’s price rose on the back of its revenue and net profit growing by 28.7% YoY to Rs 187.5 crore and 25.9% YoY to Rs 41.9 crore, respectively, in Q2FY25. Its revenue increased on the back of an improvement in patient footfall and higher test samples. 

You can find some popular screeners here.

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The Baseline
28 Nov 2024
Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - November 28, 2024
By Ruchir Sankhla

1. Bharti Airtel:

Geojit BNP Paribas reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this telecom services provider with a target price of Rs 1,711, indicating an upside of 9.7%. The company reported a net profit growth of 168% YoY to Rs 3,593.2 crore in Q2FY25. Revenue increased by 11.6% YoY to Rs 41,728 crore, helped by improvements in the Indian mobile services, Airtel business, and home services segments. 

The analyst highlights that average revenue per user (ARPU) of the company has increased to Rs 233 from Rs 203 a year earlier, supported by recent tariff hikes. Airtel's customer base grew 4.3% YoY to 563 million. The company installed 5,000 additional towers and 15,200 mobile broadband stations, enhancing connectivity. The capital expenditure for the quarter stands at Rs 7,675 crore, with Rs 6,260 crore incurred in India and Rs 1,415 crore in Africa.

Geojit expects a CAGR of 13.4% in sales, 14.8% in EBITDA, and 40.7% in net profit over FY25-26.

2. Sansera Engineering:

ICICI Direct retains its ‘Buy’ rating on this auto parts & equipment company, setting a target price of Rs 2,000, indicating an upside potential of 29.3%. The company reported a net profit growth of 7.8% YoY to Rs 50.7 crore in Q2FY25, while revenue rose 10.6% YoY to Rs 767.2 crore during the quarter.

Analysts Shashank Kanodia, Manisha Kesari and Bhavish Doshi highlight the company’s strong order book which stands at Rs 2,010 crore as of Q2FY25 (vs Rs 1,930 crore in Q2FY24), with 51% from higher-margin segments like non-auto and auto tech agnostic parts. Around 60% of orders are from international markets. Sansera is focusing on diversifying its revenue mix, aiming to lower automotive internal combustion engine dependency from 73% to 60% and improve tech agnostic and non-auto sectors to 20% each. The management aims to grow the non-auto segment with a CAGR of 35-40%.

Kanodia, Kesari, and Doshi expect a CAGR of 17% in revenue, 22.3% in EBITDA, and 36.4% in net profit for the period FY25-27, with revenue anticipated to reach around Rs 4,500 crore by FY27.

3. Sky Gold:

Edelweiss maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this gems & jewellery manufacturer with a target price of Rs 4,500, indicating an upside potential of 16.9%. In Q2FY25, the company reported a net profit growth of 4X YoY to Rs 36.7 crore. Its revenue rose 98.7% YoY to Rs 788.6 crore, due to the recent duty cut which led to a surge in footfalls during the quarter.

Analyst Palash Kawale highlights that strong festive demand and recent acquisitions supported overall volume growth of 38% YoY to 345 kg/month this quarter. Management plans to increase volumes through new clients and higher sales to existing customers. Exports reached Rs 69 crore in Q2FY25 from Rs 14 crore in Q2FY24, contributing 9%, and are expected to reach 10% by year-end. Margin gains from value-added products, along with the sale of mutual fund holdings and reinvestment of the proceeds into fixed deposits, drove profitability.

Commenting on the results, Kawale said, “Given its record of overachieving its targets in the past combined with management’s execution capabilities, we believe that Sky Gold can be a long-term growth story.” The analyst expects revenue, EBITDA, and net profit to grow by 53%, 61%, and 73%, respectively over FY25-27.

4. CESC:

Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this electric utilities company with a target price of Rs 217, indicating an upside of 24.5%. CESC reported a net profit growth of 1.4% YoY to Rs 353 crore in Q2FY25, driven by strong performances in Haldia and Dhariwal. Dhariwal Infrastructure and Haldia Energy’s profits increased by 19% and 12%, respectively, reaching Rs 81 crore and Rs 74 crore helped by higher power generation. However, the growth was partially offset by the standalone business due to higher interest expenses. The company’s revenue rose by 2% to Rs. 4,819 crore.

CESC plans to commission 1.5 GW of solar and 1.7 GW of wind capacity by FY29, with transmission connectivity of both expected to be granted in Q3FY25. Currently, 3.2 GW of wind projects are in engineering, procurement & construction (EPC) mode with Inox Wind, Suzlon, and Ecoren. Additionally, CESC Projects, a subsidiary of CESC, plans to set up a 10,500 TPA Green Hydrogen facility within the next three years.

The company implemented a 5.7% tariff hike starting in June to recover fuel and power purchase adjustment costs. The analysts say, "The 5.7% tariff hike, along with renewable energy investments and the turnaround of the distribution business, will boost earnings." They expect the company’s revenue and net profit to grow by 7.5% and 11.5%, respectively, over FY25-27.

5. Lemon Tree Hotels:

IDBI Capital maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this hotels company with a target price of Rs 145. This indicates a potential upside of 11.6%. Lemon Tree Hotels’ (LTH) management highlights that Aurika Mumbai targets over 60% occupancy in Q3, up from 50% in Q2, by focusing on high-rate international crew business, which offers higher average rates and more predictable demand.

Analysts Archana Gude and Sarthak Awasthi note, “We remain positive on LTH within the mid-scale hotels segment due to its operational scale and the opening of Aurika, Mumbai, which will further boost earnings." They believe the management's strong outlook on inventory expansion and debt repayment is encouraging despite margin challenges in FY25 due to cost escalations.

In Q2FY25, the company reported a revenue growth of 21% YoY to Rs 284.4 crore, beating Trendlyne Forecaster estimates by 1.6%. However, net profit fell 27% due to lower available rooms and higher expenses from ongoing renovations. 

The management is upbeat about growth in H2FY25, with October-November showing 15% revenue and 20% EBITDA growth YoY, driven by increasing wedding and banquet demand, particularly from destination weddings and social events. They expect renovation spending in FY25 to be Rs 100-110 crore, with 60% focused on high-value properties like Delhi and Mumbai.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

(You can find all analyst picks here)