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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    30 Jul 2024

    Chart of the Week: IT, metals and transport stocks lead with aggressive capex growth estimates

    By Satyam Kumar

    Capital expenditure (capex) is a key number that investors watch. It tells them how forward-looking a company is, and how invested it is in its future. Such spending is essentially,  a bet on upcoming growth. 

    Capex growth forecasts by analysts is thus a useful proxy for future bullishness, and helps justify current valuations. These forecasts tell us which companies are making the biggest bets on expansion and growth. Higher forecasts suggest good financial health, and also indicate the company's confidence and commitment to long-term growth.

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we look at a screener of stocks with high Forecaster capex growth estimates. The bubble chart circles represent the size of capex growth estimates. We also look at the individual sectors poised for high capex growth in the coming year and identify the biggest contributors.

    Better-than-expected Q1 results and capex plans for FY25 suggest a turnaround in Software & Services

    Happiest Minds and Zensar Tech have the highest capex growth estimates in the software and services sector for FY25

    Five of the 25 stocks in our chart belong to the software & services sector. This expansion in the IT sector comes after around two years of slowing growth and disappointing numbers. IT firms reported better-than-expected results in Q1FY25 because of the rise in the number of deal wins. This came after major central banks have already cut or hinted at a probable rate cut i.e. lower borrowing rates starting this year, as inflation comes down in major global economies. 

    Happiest Minds Technologies leads with an estimated capex growth of 2,751.9% for FY25, the highest forecast among the Nifty500 stocks. The estimated capex for FY25 is Rs 294 crore compared to Rs 10.3 crore in FY24. This aligns with the aspirations of the company’s Chairman, Ashok Soota, who says that FY25 will be their best year in terms of revenue growth since the IPO.

    In Q1FY25, the company acquired PureSoftware and Macmillan Learning and added 1,250 employees. These acquisitions strengthen its presence in key verticals like BFSI, Healthcare, and Education. The company also looks forward to ramp-up orders from the Generative AI segment. It expects to achieve $1 billion in revenue by 2031, driven by organic growth initiatives, strategic acquisitions, and new technology capabilities in Gen AI and bioinformatics.

    Zensar Technologies follows with a capex growth estimate of 863%, while Mphasis and Birlasoft are expected to incur capex growth of 406% and 250%, respectively. Another software & services firm, Just Dial started this year on a positive note, with net profit growth of 69.3% YoY to Rs 141 crore in Q1FY25. Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects Just Dial to have an estimated capex of Rs 51 crore in FY25, signifying growth of 273% on a YoY basis. 

    Metals & mining sector companies plan to fulfill capex with internal accruals

    Maharashtra Seamless has the highest planned capex growth estimates in the mining sector for FY25

    In the metals and mining sector, Maharashtra Seamless stands out with the highest capex growth estimate of 1,395% for FY25. The company had taken debt for a Telangana plant and rig acquisition, but prepaid it in full in October ‘22 and June ‘23 respectively through internal accruals. For FY25-26, the company plans to spend over Rs 800 crore from their cash in hand and internal accruals.

    Another major player, Jindal Stainless, is expected to grow its capex by 252% in FY25. The company has announced a total expansion capex of around Rs 5,400 crore. They are also partnering with a Singapore entity to set up a 1.2 million tons per annum stainless steel weld shop in Indonesia, where JSL will hold a 49% stake with an outlay of around Rs 700 crore.

    Close behind are Lloyds Metals & Energy and Welspun Corp., with capex growth estimates of 245% and 222%, respectively, in FY25. Lloyds Metals has announced plans to remain debt-free even though the company intends to execute a capex of Rs 33,000 crore. The company has delivered a 55%+ return on employed capital in the past two years.

    Transportation sector companies are spending heavily to keep up with India’s growth in the coming years

    Three transportation sector firms have high planned capex growth for FY25

    Forecaster estimates that InterGlobe Aviation (Indigo) will incur a capex of around Rs 15,000 crore, signifying a growth of 1,253% YoY. CEO Pieter Elbers aims to double Indigo’s fleet size by 2030 from around 350 aircraft at present to 600 aircraft. The company plans to add 10 new destinations and approximately 6,000 employees in FY25. It also aims to add one new aircraft per week to expand its domestic and international operations. For this, Indigo placed an order for 500 aircraft with Airbus in June ‘23, setting a new record for the largest aircraft order in the history of commercial aviation.

    Another transportation company, JSW Infrastructure, is expected to incur capex growth of 642% in FY25. The company has planned a capex of Rs 2,500 crore in FY25 to expand its cargo handling capacity. Joint MD and CEO, Arun Maheshwari, said, “By 2027, the company anticipates a 50% increase in capacity to 258 million tonnes with an investment of Rs 14,000 crore.” He also highlighted that the company will fund these expansion plans and new projects with internal accruals, leveraging a strong balance sheet with low debt.

    Solar EPC firms to gain from India’s plan to lower carbon footprint by 2030

    Solar engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) firm Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy plans to capitalise on India’s target of 500 GW of non-fossil-based energy, aiming to reduce the carbon footprint by 45% by 2030. Reduced solar prices and overcapacity in the Chinese market have also worked in favour of  EPC players in building their captive solar power plants. Forecaster expects Sterling and Wilson’s capex to surge by 1,469% in FY25.

    Similarly, battery manufacturer Amara Raja Energy & Mobility is expected to incur capex growth of 284% in FY25. Meanwhile, Forecaster estimates Patanjali Foods and Eris Lifesciences to incur 10x capex costs compared to last year to fund their growth ambitions. 

    It is evident that companies have become more cautious about debt-driven spending after enduring a prolonged high-interest rate environment. In the past year, many companies have significantly ramped up their debt repayments to reduce their finance costs. Now, they are taking a more conservative approach and are looking to fund their growth aspirations with the cash they have on hand

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    The Baseline
    26 Jul 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 26, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 26, 2024

    1. Titan Company:

    This jewellery company jumped 6.5% on Budget day, following Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's proposal to lower customs duty on precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum. She proposed cutting the customs duty on gold and silver to 6% from 15%, and reducing the customs duty on platinum to 6.4% from 15.4%.

    Analysts expect the recent drop in gold prices to spark demand for gold jewellery in the coming quarter, boosted by the upcoming wedding season. Jewellers have reported a rise in daily demand, with some experiencing a surge of up to 20% since the duty reduction. Titan’s jewellery segment has already seen double-digit growth in the number of buyers in FY24.  On a consolidated basis, the company reported revenue growth of 26.3% YoY to Rs 51,617 crore in FY24, with net profit of Rs 3,496 crore, up 7.6% YoY.

    In the Q1FY25 business update, the company said that standalone sales grew 9% on a YoY basis. Its jewellery segment, which contributes over 85% to the total revenue, added 34 stores during the quarter, taking the total count to 699. The watches and wearables segment outperformed other segments in terms of sales growth, with a 15% rise on a YoY basis.

    Ajoy Chawla, CEO of the jewellery division at Titan, said, “Q1 is likely to be a little bit more stressed because of the absence of wedding dates and the elections, and the elevated gold prices during April to June period”. However, he expects the second half of the year to be much better compared to the first half.

    Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on Titan given its growth outlook driven by new store additions, attractive designs, and market share gains. With a target price of Rs 4,100, Titan has a potential upside of 17.3%.

    2. United Spirits:

    This breweries & distilleries company has risen 8.9% in the past week, reaching an all-time high of Rs 1,450 on Thursday. The surge came after the Andhra Pradesh government announced it would resume buying liquor from top brands, boosting shares of major alcohol companies.

    In Q1FY25, United Spirits' profit rose 1.7% YoY to Rs 485 crore, while its revenue increased by 7.6% YoY to Rs 6,273 crore, driven by strong performance in the beverage alcohol segment. EBITDA margin grew by 174 bps YoY to 19.5%. The company appears in a screener of stocks outperforming their respective industry over the past year.

    During the quarter, the company saw strong consumer demand for its premium offerings, including the successful launch of McDowell's X-series, which are new beverages targeted at mid-to-upper consumer segments. The firm also acquired stakes in specialty beverage firms like V9 Beverages and Indie Brews, expanding into zero alcohol and premium craft segments.

    United Spirits projects a volume growth of 4-5% and aims for a price mix improvement in the premium and above segments. The company’s CFO and Executive Director, Pradeep Jain said, “We project volume growth in the range of 4-5% and a price mix improvement of 6-8% on a full-year basis.” He also highlighted that the company aims to maintain its 'Prestige and Above’ (P&A) segment revenue growth rate in double digits.

    Post Q1FY25 results, Edelweiss has upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’, with a higher target price of Rs 1,630. The brokerage remains positive on the company's expansion into new premium categories like tequila and craft spirits. However, the firm is in the PE Sell Zone, currently trading above its historical PE.

    3. Newgen Software Technologies:

    This IT consulting & software company fell 2.2% on July 18 as its net profit plunged 54.8% QoQ to Rs 47.6 crore in Q1FY25 due to higher employee benefits and other expenses. Revenue declined by 16.1% QoQ to Rs 314.7 crore, caused by weakness in key geographies. The company’s revenue missed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 1.3%. EBITDA margins contracted 17.6 percentage points to 15.1% in the same period. 

    During the quarter, the company’s India and e EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) markets, both of which separately contribute around one-third of the revenue pie saw revenues fall by 23% and 32% QoQ respectively. In contrast, the APAC (Asia Pacific excluding India) and USA markets grew by 23.5% QoQ and 10.5% QoQ, respectively. 

    Q1 is typically a weak quarter for IT companies. But this year the bigwigs in the industry reported a decent first quarter, and highlighted green shoots in the banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) space. However, for Newgen, the banking segment saw a decline of 17.3% QoQ.  The products and platforms business also declined 41.3% QoQ, resulting in weak quarterly performance.

    Meanwhile, Newgen continued to seetraction from its existing and new clients in Q1 and added 13 new clients during the quarter. It secured significant orders from banks in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Qatar. In Q1, Newgen also launched a new product, Newgen LumYn, a Gen AI-powered platform designed  for the banking sector. 

    During FY24, revenue was up 27.7% YoY to Rs 1,243.8 crore, while net profit grew by 42.7% YoY. Speaking on the outlook, Virender Jeet, the CEO said, “We would like to keep the historical momentum of over 25% annual topline growth going forward, led by deal wins. We expect around 20% PAT growth and 23-24% EBITDA margins in FY25.”  

    Over the past week, Newgen Software rose by 5%, outperforming its industry by 3%. However,  it has surged by 158.6% in the past year. The company is in the PE Strong Sell Zone, and is currently trading above its historical PE. 

    Post Newgen’s results, ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Hold’ rating with a target price of Rs 1,010. The brokerage notes the strong traction in lending, trade finance, and supply chain financing solutions. It believes 25% plus growth could sustain in the near term.

    4. Gravita India:

    This lead & aluminium metals company rose by 21.7% over the past week and announced its results on Monday. For Q1FY25, the company’s net profit increased by 29.3% YoY to Rs 67.3 crore, while its revenue rose by 25.9% YoY due to a rise of 42.6% YoY in lead segment revenue. The firm beat Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates for revenue by 7.5% and for net profit by 11.3%. The stock shows up in a screener for stocks with strong momentum.

    The company’s lead and plastics segment were the revenue drivers in Q1FY25. Lead volumes rose by 43% YoY to 41.9kt, while plastics volumes rose by 18% YoY to 3.2kt. EBITDA per tonne for lead stood at Rs 19,321  and for aluminum it stood at Rs 19,414. The management has upped its lead EBITDA/kg guidance, from Rs 17-18/kg to Rs 18-19/kg for FY25.

    Yogesh Malhotra, CEO of the firm, said that the company is expecting the launch of the aluminum alloy commodity derivative on MCX shortly. He notes that this development would play a crucial role in managing price volatility risks. He added, “We are setting up a pilot project for lithium-ion recycling and our first Indian tire recycling plant at Mundra, both of which are expected to be operational in H1FY26. The paper recycling plant and steel recycling plants are anticipated to be operational by FY27.”  On MCX, aluminum prices are seeing a decline amid concerns over China’s lack of new stimulus. Lead prices have also remained flat. However, analysts predict that global lead production is expected to grow by 4.3% to more than 4.7 million tonnes in 2024. The increase will mainly be fuelled by rising output from key producers such as Australia, the US, and Russia.

    The company under its “Vision 2028” has placed  targets of revenue CAGR of >25% and  PAT CAGR of >35%, and aims to increase the proportion of  value added products (VAP) to 50% by entering new verticals. Gravita expects earnings to reach Rs 750-800 crore by 2028. 

    According to a report by Avendus Capital, the domestic battery recycling market is expected to grow to Rs 8,371.8 crore by FY30. The company has plans to invest Rs 70-100 crore in the Li-ion vertical, over the next 3 years to grab the opportunity.

    Emkay has given a “Buy” rating on Gravita India, with a target price of Rs 1,650. The brokerage has raised its target multiple to 25x, from 23x earlier, thanks to implementation of regulatory norms and a strong outlook from diversification into new verticals.

    5. Indian Hotels Company:

    This hotels company rose by 11.1% in the past week after announcing positive Q1FY25 results on Friday. The company reported net profit growth of 11.7% YoY to Rs 248.4 crore, while its revenue improved by 5.3% YoY to Rs 1,596.3 crore. However, it missed Trendlyne Forecaster’s net profit estimate by 4.4%. The company also appears in the screener for stocks outperforming their respective industry over the past quarter.

    Revenue growth was slower compared to growth in Q4FY24 (18% YoY) as extreme heat waves and elections impacted occupancy. However, its EBITDA margin expanded by 103 bps YoY to 29% due to better operating efficiencies. The firm’s revenue per available room for Q1FY25 stood at Rs 6,900, outperforming its industry and competition with a premium of 60%.

    Indian Hotels has opened six hotels in Q1FY25 and one new hotel in July 2024, and it has guided to open 25 new hotels in FY25. At present, the company's portfolio of hotels stands at 224 operational hotels with 102 new hotels in the pipeline. Speaking about growth, Managing Director Puneet Chhatwal said, “We expect a 20% plus revenue growth with sustained margins in FY25. We remain confident that we will deliver on our guidance, backed by diversified revenue growth and tailwinds for the industry.” The management expects the new businesses (Ginger, Qmin, amã Stays & Trails) to accelerate growth to 30%, and a focus on asset management should drive profitability.

    Axis Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ call on Indian Hotels Company as it expects the hospitality industry upcycle to be long and sustained. Additionally, it believes upcoming events such as the Women's World Cup hockey and kabaddi championships could improve occupancies.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations

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    The Baseline
    24 Jul 2024

    Chart of the Week: Capital goods, consumer services and telecom see highest inflows from FPIs

    By Satyam Kumar

    The FY25 Budget marked a volatile day for Indian equity markets. All major indices nosedived after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, in her Budget speech, proposed increasing taxes on stock market gains. Long-term capital gains will now attract a tax of 12.5% compared to 10% earlier, while short-term capital gains tax was raised from 15% to 20%. Taxes were also hiked on F&O transactions.

    Meanwhile, Sitharaman proposed reducing the corporate tax rate on foreign companies from 40% to 35% to become the top alternative in the “China plus one” strategy, and attract foreign capital. 

    Post-elections, the Indian equity markets in June and the first fortnight of July witnessed a total inflow of Rs 47,284 crore in equities. Before that, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) had withdrawn Rs 34,286 crore in April and May due to poll jitters and concerns over sticky inflation. Since then, a better-than-expected earnings season has helped build investor confidence and attract FPIs back to Indian equity markets.

    In this week’s Chart of the Week, we take a look at sectors with the highest FPI activity over the past year. FPIs consistently poured money into capital goods companies, with a total inflow of Rs 47,422 crore. The consumer services sector was the second favourite among FPIs, attracting a net investment of Rs 36,570 crore. 

    The financial services sector, on the other hand, witnessed the highest FPI outflow of Rs 35,066 crore in the past year. The sector has recently underperformed due to high borrowing rates, resulting in lower net interest margins as advance growth outpaced deposit growth over the past year.

    Capital goods, consumer services and telecom emerge as FPI favourites

    More than half of the total investment of around Rs 2 lakh crore by FPIs went into capital goods, consumer services and telecom sectors. Capital goods companies have benefited from a robust order backlog and a steady inflow of fresh orders. This growth was supported by stable commodity prices and increased government infrastructure spending, as well as production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes. The “China plus one” strategy has also helped the order surge.

    The consumer services sector ranked second in FPI interest, with net positive inflows even during highly volatile months leading up to the election. Higher discretionary spending over the past year has boosted investor confidence in the sector. The telecom sector caught the attention of FPIs, attracting investments worth Rs 28,461 crore, with over 90% of the total investment coming in the last five months. The recent tariff hike by telecom companies is expected to drive growth in average revenue per user and expand their net profit margins in the coming quarters. 

    IT sector is gaining traction post surprise outperformance in Q1 results

    The information technology sector also saw a notable shift, with FPIs turning net buyers and investing Rs 2,765 crore from July 1 to 15. This was a reversal from the net selling of Rs 981 crore observed in June. The IT sector showed early signs of recovery in their Q1FY25 results, driven by opportunities in the GenAI segment and potential rate cuts in the US in September. This recovery could boost orders from the BFSI segment, which constitutes around 50% of revenue for IT companies.

    Similarly, the auto sector has also seen net FPI inflows post-elections. With expectations of a good monsoon this year, analysts are predicting a volume uptick in the sales of two-wheelers and three-wheelers. The EV sector, however, received no direct subsidies or announcements in the Union Budget for FY25.

    Healthcare and FMCG sectors witness turnaround post elections

    The healthcare sector, comprising the pharma and hospital industries, witnessed an inflow of Rs 14,822 crore over the past year. Analysts expect the pharma industry to deliver earnings growth driven by better product mix, and improved margins. Over the past year, hospitals saw growth in average revenue per occupied bed, alongside steady capacity additions, leading to higher net income and revenue visibility.

    The FMCG sector, on the other hand, has seen net outflows of over Rs 20,000 crore in the past year. However, during the first July fortnight (i.e. first half of the month), the sector saw a net inflow of Rs 1,809 crore. This turnaround for FMCG came as reports surfaced of a recovery in rural demand in recent months. Tobacco company ITC rallied after the government, in the 2024 Budget, decided to maintain the current tax rates on cigarette and tobacco products, which contributed around 75% to its profit before taxes as of Q4FY24.

    Stocks that have seen the highest increase in FII holdings in the past quarter

    Banks & telecom sector stocks witness a sharp rise in FII holdings

    The above chart represents the top eight Nifty500 stocks that saw the highest jump in FII holdings in terms of percentage points on a QoQ basis. You can take a look at all the stocks where FIIs have increased their shareholding in the past quarter in the “FII/FPI increasing their shareholding” screener. 

    Telecom company Vodafone Idea (VI) has seen its share price surge from Rs 13 at the time of FPO to Rs 19 in the past month, following a fundraise of Rs 18,000 crore through the FPO. The company plans to use the proceeds for 5G expansion and to clear dues of around Rs 10,000 crore to the tower company Indus Towers. FPIs have significantly increased their shareholding in both companies in the past quarter.

    Meanwhile, FPIs have also increased their stake in Ujjivan Small Finance Bank and CSB Bank by 21.2 and 7.4 percentage points respectively. Both banks are currently trading at fair valuations as they have a Trendlyne valuation score of around 70.

    These FPI trends in different sectors reflect both global economic trends, changing investor preferences and sector-specific challenges/policies in India. Right now, the overall sentiment surrounding India is increasingly positive, and this has shown up in the return of foreign funds in recent months.

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    The Baseline
    23 Jul 2024
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - July 23, 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - July 23, 2024

    By Divyansh Pokharna

    1.Infosys:

    Axis Direct recommends a ‘Buy’ rating on this IT consulting and software company with a target price of Rs 1,950, indicating a potential upside of 6.1%. The bigwigs of IT have got a boost in Q1FY25 after several quarters of weak numbers and high attrition. In Q1FY25, the company's net profit fell by 20.1% QoQ to Rs 6,368 crore but showed a 7.1% YoY growth, beating Forecaster estimates by 1.3%. Revenue fell 1.2% QoQ to Rs 40,153 crore due to a reduction in the retail and hi-tech segments. 

    Analyst Omkar Tanksale notes a strong recovery in BFSI and other verticals, which boosted the tech major. He notes that the management expects sustained demand for Gen AI and improved client engagement, which should lead to higher realizations. The company’s total contract value (TCV) surpassed expectations by securing deals worth $4.1 billion.

    Tanksale expects improvement in the North American region and Europe to sustain strong demand. The company anticipates demand should pick up further as uncertainties resolve in the next 2-3 quarters, leading to consistent deal wins.

    2. Bajaj Auto:

    Sharekhan maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this 2/3-wheeler manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 11,400, indicating an upside of 21.5%. In Q1FY25, the company reported revenue growth of 15% YoY to Rs 12,267.4 crore, with net profit up 18.1% YoY to Rs 1,941.8 crore. Analysts attribute this growth to an improved motorcycle sales mix and an expansion in EBITDA margin by 130 bps YoY to 23.6%.

    Bajaj Auto (BAL) expects the 2-wheeler industry to grow by 6-7% in FY25, largely driven by the 125+ cc segment. The company plans to expand its manufacturing capacity for CNG motorcycles to 40,000 unitspermonth by Q4FY25. The brokerage says, “We believe BAL's segment-specific brands are attracting attention as premium segment demand surpasses entry-level segments.” African markets have yet to fully recover, but the management expects improved export performance in Q2FY25 compared to Q1FY25.

    Analysts are positive about BAL benefiting from the expanding CNG network in India, boosting demand for its CNG three-wheelers due to its market leadership. Sharekhan projects a revenue CAGR of 15.6% and an adjusted PAT CAGR of 17.9% for FY25-26.

    3. India Glycols:

    Edelweiss initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this chemicals company, with a target price of Rs 1,365, indicating a potential upside of 31.1%. The stock also hit a new year high in the past week. Analyst Ranvir Singh is positive about the company’s prospects on the back of increased biofuel opportunities. The company's bio-based specialties and performance chemicals (BSPC) segment grew 26% YoY, contributing 65% to its revenue in FY24.

    Singh expects India Glycols to benefit from its expanded ethanol production capacity, aiming to triple its production levels from FY23 by mid-FY25. He highlights the company’s diversification into biofuels, and expanded supplies for its spirits business as growth drivers. Additionally, the company has established a joint venture with Clariant International to enhance its specialty chemicals segment via Clariant’s expertise and resources.

    Singh anticipates revenue and profit CAGR of 15.9% and 40% respectively over FY25-26. He notes that the firm is focused on refining the BSPC revenue mix and improving the balance sheet by reducing the debt.

    4. Gabriel India:

    ICICI Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this auto parts and equipment manufacturer, with a target price of Rs 600, indicating an upside of 26.5%. The company’s net profit rose by 40% YoY to Rs 185 crore in FY24, while its revenue increased 12.5% YoY.

    Gabriel holds a market share of over 30% in the 2-wheeler segment and a 70% share in the electric 2-wheeler market.Analysts Shashank Kanodia and Manisha Kesar are upbeat about the company's outlook, highlighting its outperformance in the 2-wheeler segment driven by strong domestic demand and recovering export volumes. The company also plans to expand its SUV presence by entering the sunroof segment through a JV with Inalfa Roof System, bolstering its growth potential.

    Kanodia and Kesar foresee Gabriel benefiting from strong partnerships in the EV sector and a cash positive balance sheet, with continued margin strength and growth. They project a revenue and net profit CAGR of 9.3% and 24.2% respectively over FY25-26.

    5. Reliance Industries:

    BOB Capital reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating on this refineries and petroleum products company with a target price of Rs 3,585, indicating a potential upside of 20.4%. In Q1FY25 the company’s net profit fell 5.4% YoY to Rs 15,138 crore, missing Forecaster estimates by 9%. This decline was driven by a 5% lower EBITDA in retail and 4% lower in oil & gas. Revenue rose 11.7% YoY to Rs 231,784 crore due to an 18% YoY increase in revenue from the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) segment.

    Despite the estimates miss, analyst Kirtan Mehta is upbeat, noting that Digital Services' EBITDA grew 8.9% YoY in Q1 and should accelerate further in Q2, due to recent tariff hikes of 13-20%. These hikes are expected to raise average revenue per user (ARPU) for Reliance Jio by 11% annually to Rs 245 by FY27. 

    Mehta expects a 22% annual growth in EBITDA for both digital services and retail over FY25-FY27. Additionally, RIL’s overall EBITDA is projected to grow 11% annually during this period, primarily driven by a 22% CAGR in the consumer business.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    19 Jul 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 19, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 19, 2024

    1. Avenue Supermarts (DMart):

    This department store company has been rising in the past week after its quarterly results for Q1FY25. The company saw revenue growth of 19% YoY to Rs 14,111 crore, surpassing Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 1.5%. However, its net profit fell short of estimates by 3.8%, despite increasing by 17.5% YoY to Rs 773.8 crore.

    The net profit jump was driven by higher revenue from the discretionary segment. DMart’s general merchandise and apparel segment saw an uptick, driven by a growing number of DMart Ready outlets. But high EBITDA margins were offset by higher operating costs, due to investments in service sales and future capacity building. DMart added six new stores in Q1, bringing its total to 371.

    The company, like many others, has been facing heat from  quick commerce players like Zepto and Blinkit. Trent’s Zudio  has also emerged as a competitor in the value apparel segment. Neville Noronha, CEO of Avenue Supermarts, said, “We aim to open new stores as quickly as possible, but our main focus remains on how well the newly opened stores are being managed.”

    The company currently trades in the PE Neutral Zone. However, even at this neutral level, its PE stands at 123, which is higher than the industry average. The company appears in a screener of stocks with annual profit growth higher than sector growth.

    Prabhudas Lilladher downgraded DMart’s rating to ‘Accumulate’ as the company missed net profit and margin estimates. However, the brokerage is upbeat about the company’s sustained focus on tier-2 and tier-3 cities, and further acceleration in store openings in the coming years. They expect addition of 45-50 stores in FY25  to drive a 21% sales growth and anticipate a net profit CAGR of 25% over FY25-26.

    2. Asian Paints:

    This paint maker fell 1.4% on Thursday after announcing Q1 results. Asian Paints’ net profit surprised investors by declining sharply, down 24.5% YoY to Rs 1,170 crore, and missing Forecaster estimates by 15.6%. Revenue was down 2.3% YoY during the quarter. The weak profit performance was due to previously taken price cuts, higher raw material prices and employee benefit expenses, as well as restricted supply chains due to heatwaves. 

    During the quarter, domestic business, contributing around 97% to the revenue, grew by 5.9% YoY. Domestic business includes decorative and industrial segments. The decorative segment was impacted due to raw material price inflation and supply chain challenges. 

    Raw material prices were up 1.8% YoY in Q1FY25 and are expected to rise further, around 1.5% in Q2. Asian Paints announced a 0.7-1% price hike on July 10 to offset these costs, and more hikes are likely in the upcoming quarter. The industrial segment, however, outpaced decoratives, led by growth in auto OEM and powder coatings. Meanwhile, international business (constituting over 3% of the revenue) fell by 3.6% YoY due to underperformance in key markets including Nepal, Bangladesh, and Egypt. 

    The paint industry faces both cost and competitive pressures and potential market share shifts, especially with the entry of Aditya Birla Group’s Birla Opus. The next few quarters are crucial to assess the impact of Birla Opus on the industry as a whole, and on Asian Paints.

    The management highlighted that April and May were challenging months, while June saw some demand recovery, particularly in rural areas. Speaking on the outlook, Amit Syngle, the MD and CEO, said “We are seeing some green shoots in rural areas, and the progression of the monsoon is expected to support this uptick”. He adds that growth in T3 and T4 cities outpaced T1 and T2 cities. Syngle also highlights that the upcoming festive season will drive growth for the company.

    Motilal Oswal has a ‘Neutral’ rating with a target price of Rs 3,150. The brokerage expects muted revenue growth due to price cuts and competitive pressure, despite initiatives to improve volumes. The company is in the PE Buy Zone, indicating it is currently trading below its historical PE.

    3. Jubilant Ingrevia

    This specialty chemicals company fell by 6.6% over the past week and announced its results on Tuesday. For Q1FY25, the company’s net profit declined by double digits, down 15.4% YoY to Rs 48.7 crore, while its revenue fell by 4.6% YoY due to a decline in its chemical intermediaries segment revenue. The firm missed Trendlyne’s forecaster estimates for revenue by 2.2% and for net profit by 0.7%. 

    FY24 was a difficult year for the company as well. The firm saw a fall in net profit of 40.5% YoY to Rs 182.9 crore, while the revenue declined by 13.2% YoY due to weaker speciality chemicals and chemical intermediaries segment revenue. While the firm beat the forecaster estimate for revenue in FY24 by 0.9%, hit missed the net profit estimate by 4.4%. The stock shows up in a screener for stocks sold by superstar investors.

    Among the better performers this quarter was the company’s specialty chemicals segment, which constitutes 42% in the revenue mix and grew by 8.3% YoY.  EBIT margin improved to 14.5% from 9.5% in Q4FY24 for this segment. However the chemical intermediaries (acetyl) segment which constitutes 40% of the revenue mix struggled, due to lower demand coming from the paracetamol end-use segment and lower acetic acid prices.

    Deepak Jain, CEO and Managing Director of the firm highlighted that in the CDMO (contract development and manufacturing organizations) space, the company is in “advanced stage discussions” for multiple projects in pharma, agro and semiconductor end-use. He expects CDMO to grow at 25-30% in FY25. He adds that the specialty segment is expected to have an EBITDA of 20%+ in steady state, and with new launches going forward, EBITDA may reach 23-25% in the next 2-3 years.

    Prabhudas Lilladher has maintained its “Hold” rating on Jubilant Ingrevia, with a target price of Rs 592. The brokerage notes that the company has been adding capacities across segments, but challenges are expected to persist due to international pricing pressures and agrochem weakness, which the brokerage expects will only resolve in the later stages of H2FY25.

    4. Just Dial:

    This internet software company hit a new 52-week high of Rs 1,304 on Friday after surging 26.5% in the past week, following the release of its Q1FY25 results. The company’s net profit grew 69.3% YoY to Rs 141.2 crore, surpassing Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 16.5%.This was helped by lower employee benefit expenses and finance costs, and a deferred tax credit of Rs 3.9 crore. EBITDA margins were up by 13.8 percentage points YoY to 28.7%.

    The company has outperformed the internet software industry by 4% over the previous quarter. Just Dial expanded its active business network to 4.5 crore firms during the quarter, and attracted 18.1 crore unique quarterly visitors, with 85.2% accessing the platform via mobile sites and apps.

    Commenting on the company’s target, MD & CEO VSS Mani said, “We are targeting 15-17% revenue growth for FY25 and an EBITDA margin over 25%".  He also highlighted the firm’s plans to launch its B2B offerings via the JD Mart app and expand its presence in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities.

    ICICI Direct maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 1,210. The brokerage believes that the company’s focus on Tier 2/3 cities, coupled with price hikes and other initiatives, will drive future growth. It expects revenue and PAT to grow at 15% and 18.9% CAGR respectively over FY25-26.

    5. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals:

    This pharma company has risen by 13.7% in the past month and hit its all-time high of Rs 1,427 on Tuesday. In the past week, the company announced its exit from its arm Glenmark Life Sciences through an offer for sale. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals and Managing Director Glenn Mario Saldanha will divest their 7.9% stake (approx 96.1 lakh shares) for Rs 779 crore. In March, the firm also sold a 75% stake in Glenmark Life Sciences to Nirma for Rs 5,651 crore. This step was taken to improve its weak balance sheet and high debt position. After the divestment, the company has turned net cash positive.

    In the past week, the company also received US FDA approval for topiramate capsules, a bioequivalent to Topamax, used in people with epilepsy to treat and prevent seizures. It has annual sales of $21.9 million.

    Trendlyne Forecaster estimates the company’s net profit to grow approx 12X in the upcoming Q1FY25 results. In FY24, the company reported a loss of Rs 1,501.7 crore compared to a profit of Rs 297.2 crore in FY23.

    Going forward, the management expects its global brands like Ryaltris and Salmex to drive growth and become worth $300-400 million over the next five years. It expects Ryaltris’ annual sales to double by FY25 from $40 million currently. Speaking about targets, the management stated, “For FY25, our revenue target is Rs 13,500-14,000 crore (up from Rs 12,653.1 crore in FY24) and EBITDA margin target is close to 19%.” The company plans to spend Rs 700 crore in capex, and around 7% of revenue on R&D.

    KRChoksey maintains a ‘Buy’ call on the stock and expects revenue to grow at a CAGR of  10% and profit at a CAGR of 41.4% over FY25-26. It believes that the company’s domestic segment has a strong growth trajectory, as it has been able to outperform in key therapy areas such as respiratory, derma and cardiac, and it expects its market share to increase. The company appears in a screener for stocks with increasing shareholding by foreign investors and/or institutions.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    19 Jul 2024
    Rising credit is causing investors worry around bank stocks | Screener: Banking stocks with higher prices, healthier NPAs

    Rising credit is causing investors worry around bank stocks | Screener: Banking stocks with higher prices, healthier NPAs

    By Swapnil Karkare

    The Godrej steel almirah, first launched in 1923, came with a sturdy inside locker for storing valuables: jewellery, cash bundles, land deeds, letters from faraway family members. The almirah was just one signifier of a country of savers. Indian households have long been reluctant to take on debt.

    That however, is changing fast. India's household debt has grown steadily, hitting new highs of over 39% of India's GDP in FY24. The biggest growth has been in non-housing loans.

    With household debt rising and and corporate borrowings also up, banks have seen a big shift over the past two years, with their credit growth surpassing deposit growth. While the credit surge in a typically credit-starved country should be celebrated, the falling savings rates and rising household debt are red flags.  

    Banks make money from the difference between the interest they earn on loans, and the interest they pay to depositors. So a rising credit deposit gap should be good news for their profts, right? The reality is more complicated. Let's take a closer look.

    In this week's Analyticks:

    • The credit boom for banks: Is rising credit growth turning into a pain point?
    • Screener: Bank stocks with falling non performing assets

    Are banks getting stressed with high credit growth?

    From April 2022 onwards, banks have seen credit growing at an average rate of 16% YoY, surpassing deposit growth of 11% YoY. The figures exclude the merger of HDFC Ltd. with HDFC Bank.

    Credit growth has even outpaced India's nominal GDP growth rate for 7 consecutive quarters. In the June monetary policy statement, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said that bank management should try to address this persisting gap.

    RBI’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) cautioned that credit growth beyond current levels may not be sustainable. As of 28th June 2024, credit growth slowed to 14% while deposit growth was at 11%. RBI's previous analysis showed that these high-credit cycles usually last for 41 months on average.

    Banks’ provisional data and estimates from brokers also suggest that the unwinding of credit growth may have begun from Q1 FY25. But the credit-deposit gap still persists, and public sector banks in particular have been struggling with deposit growth.

    Walking the tightrope

    The credit-to-deposit (CD ratio) tells us how much money banks have lent out, compared to their deposits. A very low ratio means banks are not lending enough, while too high a ratio could mean that banks have few liquid assets (deposits) left.

    The problem with a too-high ratio is also that if depositors suddenly withdraw their funds in large amounts, banks may face liquidity challenges, making it difficult to meet short-term obligations. It's a tightrope that banks need to walk.

    The tolerable or 'normal' range for the CD ratio is around 80%. RBI does not prescribe any ideal level. The ratio has been in general, lower for public sector banks indicating better asset-liability management systems, compared to their private counterparts.

    The incremental CD ratio - the ratio of additional credit and deposits over a particular period - crossed 100% in FY24, raising eyebrows. While public sector banks have been able to bring it down, private sector banks have pushed it even higher. This indicates aggressive lending techniques in the private sector, and the merger’s impact on HDFC Bank. 

    Some banks in the public sector have started raising the term deposit rates they offer to attract depositers. But private banks, on average, have reduced these rates as per the latest available data.

    Margins are likely to see a hit if banks are pushing deposit rates higher without changing their lending rates. Brokers estimate that bank net interest margins will take a hit of 10-15 bps in Q1FY25. Although public sector banks fare better in most parameters, NIM compression as they raise deposit rates will hit their profitability.

    Right now, public sector banks are at the top 

    It is banks with lower CD ratios, higher liquidity coverage (LCR), good fundamentals (higher Durability score) and appropriate valuations (higher Valuation score) will be able to sail through volatile times ahead. 

    Our analysis finds public-sector banks such as Bank of Maharashtra and Karur Vysya Bank are in better shape than the private sector. State Bank of India and ICICI Bank, also have a good trajectory.

    1. Bank of Maharashtra:

    The bank’s credit growth has been remarkable at 3% QoQ during the quarter ending June 2024. With an ROE of more than 20%, a healthy CD ratio and liquidity (LCR), and favourable Trendlyne scores, BoM emerges as a strong performer compared to its peers. 

    1. Karur Vysya Bank:

    A bank that has maintained an LCR of more than 200% for a long time is worth adding to the watchlist. A recent ICICI Securities report highlighted that it has the lowest cost of deposit and net NPAs, compared to its peers. Provisional data for the quarter ended June 2024 showed a 4% QoQ increase in loans and deposits, one of the highest amongst peers. 

    Risks are rising, favouring the most cautious bank players

    A strong economic outlook, a possible interest rate cut and a good monsoon all point to a booming bank sector. However, we cannot ignore a key risk: rising credit.

    Considering over-leveraged households, weak consumption growth and weak rural incomes, the RBI has been taking actions to safeguard the banking system. But risks like seasonal slippages in the agricultural and microfinance sectors, lower recoveries, and NIM compression will haunt banks for at least a couple of quarters.

    In such times, investors need to be cautious. Any one or a combination of these factors can shake up the sector. 


    Screener: Banking stocks rising over the past quarter with falling NPAs in Q4FY24

    PSU and small finance banks see a decline in gross NPAs

    With the start of the Q1FY25 results season, we take a look at banks and financial institutions that saw a fall in their non-performing assets (NPAs) YoY in Q4FY24. This screener shows banking and finance companies that rose over the past quarter with a YoY decrease in gross and net non-performing assets (NPAs) in Q4FY24.

    The screener primarily consists of PSU and small finance banks. Major stocks that appear in the screener are Jana Small Finance Bank, Federal Bank, Indian Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, Bandhan Bank, Yes Bank, Punjab & Sind Bank and Central Bank of India.

    Jana Small Finance Bank has surged 58.1% in the past quarter. Its gross NPAs contracted by 180 bps YoY to 2.1% in Q4FY24, while its net NPAs fell by 208 bps YoY to 0.6% during the quarter. This helped the bank’s provisions to decline by 12.1% YoY to Rs 175.4 crore. The decline in NPAs was helped by a low gross NPA of 0.3% in the affordable housing segment which contributes to 18% of the bank’s total advances. Systematix expects the company’s deposits to grow on the back of its strategy to relocate branches to areas with potential for higher deposits. 

    Indian Bank has risen 14.6% over the past quarter on the back of strong Q4FY24 results. Its gross NPAs declined by 200 bps YoY to 4% in Q1FY24, net NPAs also contracted by 47 bs YoY to 0.4% due to a moderation in slippages and a reduction in booking loans. This decline in gross and net NPAs helped the bank’s provisions to reduce by 51.3% to Rs 1,247.8 crore during the quarter. According to ICICI Direct, the company’s focus on improving asset quality, stable margins, healthy fee income, and low operational expenses will help sustain its performance.

    You can find more screeners here.

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    The Baseline
    18 Jul 2024
    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - July 18, 2024

    Five stocks to buy from analysts this week - July 18, 2024

    By Ruchir Sankhla

    1. Varun Beverages:

    Motilal Oswal reiterates a ‘Buy’ rating on this non-alcoholic beverages company with a target price of Rs 1,900, indicating a potential upside of 18.8%. Analysts Sumant Kumar, Meet Jain and Omkar Shintre highlight the company's new exclusive snacks deal with PepsiCo for Zimbabwe and Zambia. VBL plans to invest $7 million each in these countries to build snack manufacturing plants capable of producing around 5,000 metric tons annually, with production starting by October 2025 and April 2026, respectively.

    The analysts note that the total addressable market (TAM) has expanded by 67% with the addition of these two new geographies (versusMorocco earlier in Feb 2024). They highlight the snack food products market in these regions is valued at approximately $833 million as of CY24.

    Kumar, Jain, and Shintre expect a CAGR of 21% in revenue, 22% in EBITDA, and 29% in PAT for CY25-26. They also foresee a potential partnership between VBL and PepsiCo across Africa, where PepsiCo lacks local manufacturing partners and relies on imports.

    2. Sky Gold:

    Edelweiss maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this gems & jewellery smallcap company with a target price of Rs 3,204, indicating a potential upside of 68.9%. Sky Gold recently acquired Sparkling Chains for Rs 26 crore, a chain manufacturer accounting for 20% of India's jewellery sales, and Starmangalsutra for Rs 24 crore, which holds a 15% market share in the mangalsutra segment.

    Analyst Palash Kawale writes, "These acquisitions will expand Sky Gold’s market in gold jewellery and diversify its product range." Sky Gold's addressable market share in India's jewellery sales has increased to 70%, up from 35%. The analyst also highlights that the management expects the acquired entities to generate sales of more than Rs 600 crore in FY25 and a PAT of more than 15 crore in FY25.

    Kawale expects revenue, EBITDA, and PAT to increase by 53%, 56%, and 67%, respectively over FY25–27 and says, “Sky Gold can be a long-term compounding story.” He also mentioned that following these acquisitions, the management has upgraded its FY27 sales guidance to Rs 6,300 crore with over 25% RoCE.

    3. National Aluminium Company:

    SBI Securities initiates a ‘Buy’ rating on this aluminium and aluminium products company with a target price of Rs 234.6, indicating a potential upside of 22%. Analysts highlight significant developments, including NALCO's acquisition of a mining lease for bauxite mines in Odisha and a strategic MoU with NTPC for uninterrupted 1200 MW power supply. These developments are essential for NALCO's plans to expand the smelter plant capacity in Angul, Odisha.

    Analysts note that in FY24, NALCO successfully increased production at its Utkal coal mine to 2 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), resulting in significant reductions in power and fuel costs. The upcoming Utkal Block E expansion to 4 mtpa by FY25 is expected to further enhance cost efficiencies. The brownfield alumina expansion, targeting 1 mtpa, remains on track for commissioning by the second half of FY26, with full production expected to be achieved by FY27, promising expanded revenue streams. Additionally, NALCO plans to expand its aluminum smelter capacity by 0.5 mtpa in the coming years to strengthen operational capabilities.

    4. Tata Consultancy Services:

    Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ call on this IT consulting and software company with a target price of Rs 4,750, indicating a potential upside of 11.2%. The company’s revenue grew 5.4% YoY to Rs 62,613 crore in Q1FY25, and its net profit rose 8.7% YoY to Rs 12,040 crore, driven by outperformance in manufacturing, energy and healthcare segments.

    Tata Consultancy Services plans to expand its digital transformation services and enhance its AI capabilities. The company has established new client partnerships and expects spending on tech modernizing systems to grow. Analysts are upbeat, saying that the company is working to mitigate risks from currency fluctuations and an uncertain global economy by diversifying across markets and investing in technology and talent. The management highlights consistent order bookings of Rs 700-900 crore quarterly, with an all-time high pipeline in Q1, as AI investments doubles to Rs 150 crore.

    Sharekhan anticipates TCS to sustain growth despite margin pressure from wage hikes. The firm projects a robust revenue CAGR of 11% and an adjusted PAT CAGR of 15% for FY25-26, buoyed by substantial deal wins and a healthy order pipeline.

    5. Indian Bank:

    ICICI Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this bank, raising its target price to Rs 700, indicating a potential upside of 21.6%. This PSU bank has a total business of over Rs 12 lakh crore and a strong presence with 5,847 branches nationwide.

    The bank is focused on enhancing its retail, agriculture, and MSME loan segments, which constitute about 62% of its loan book. It aims to maintain a steady CASA ratio of around 40% and expects margins to remain stable at 3.4-3.5% for FY25. Analysts Vishal Narnolia and Krishna Vyas have a positive outlook on the bank as it pursues digital transformation initiatives to improve customer experience and operational efficiency. It targets a 12-13% growth in advances for FY25, supported by new business opportunities in data centres, city gas distribution, and commercial real estate sectors.

    Narnolia and Vyas anticipate that the company will achieve a CAGR growth rate of 11% for net interest income and 18% for PAT over FY25-26. They expect Indian Bank to see steady business growth and strong asset quality, projecting an improvement in RoA to 1.2-1.3% by FY25-26.

    Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

    (You can find all analyst picks here)

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    The Baseline
    16 Jul 2024

    Chart of the Week: DVM screener delivers CAGR of 38% over 11 years

    By Satyam Kumar

    Investors are always on the lookout for strategies that yield outsize returns, yet the reality is that only a select few manage portfolios that consistently outperform their benchmarks. Legendary investor Warren Buffett once said, "The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient." Despite the temptation to trade often, its the  long-term perspective that delivers returns, and this calls for a disciplined approach in navigating stocks.

    One way to maximise returns is by using screeners that automatically search for stocks that outperform on not one or two but multiple metrics. The DVM score for example, looks at several metrics across management quality, financial health, stock valuation, as well as several dozen technicals, to identify high-scoring stocks. These scores help investors shortlist quality stocks for investing.

    In this edition of Chart of the Week, we analyse one particular DVM screener: the ‘DVM - High Performing, Highly Durable Companies’ screener. This screener selects stocks from the Nifty 500 index that have strong financial durability, reasonable valuation, and positive momentum scores. It is optimised to highlight the top five stocks with the highest durability scores. 

    The screener backtest, which ran from March 2013 to June 2024, evaluated this strategy’s quarterly performance against the Nifty 500 benchmark. The screener delivered cumulative returns of 3,676.3% over 11 years and 4 months, with a CAGR of 37.7%. In contrast, the benchmark’s CAGR stands at 16.1%. The portfolio review frequency chosen for this backtest is quarterly.

    The heatmap presents a period analysis, showcasing the strategy's quarterly returns from Q1FY14 to Q1FY25. The data reveals that this approach delivered positive returns in 31 out of 45 quarters. It also outperformed the Nifty 500 index in 29 of these 45 quarters. 

    The strategy experienced a maximum drawdown of 28.4% in Q1FY23. The term "maximum drawdown" represents the largest observed loss from a portfolio’s peak to its lowest point before a new peak is attained. This strategy is automated and did not have a set stop loss, so the drawdowns show the maximum loss potential under this approach. Introducing a stop loss can reduce periods of negative returns and lower maximum drawdowns.

    The screener currently has stocks such as Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Jindal Saw, Ambuja Cements, and Apollo Tyres.

    In the course of the backtest,Ceat gave the highest returns of 428.8%. On the other hand,Triveni Engineering & Industries’ stock price had the highest fall of 48.8%.  

    Apar Industries and EIH performs the best in the DVM screener over the past two years

    Here, we look at stocks with the highest returns over the past two years from the DVM screener’s backtest. Electrical equipments maker Apar Industries was part of the screener from March 31, 2023, to June 28, 2024. During this period, it delivered a return of 238.3%.

    Similarly, EIH, a hotel company belonging to the Oberoi Group, was active in the screener a quarter ago from December 29, 2023, to March 28, 2024. In these three months, the company gave a return of 80.2%.  The jump came as the hotel stock saw its financials improve as domestic tourism boomed. In FY24, EIH witnessed a  103% YoY rise in its net profit to Rs 639 crore, aided by growth in the luxury hotel segment, which boosted average room rates.

    Great Eastern Shipping Company, which provides shipping and offshore business services to primarily oil & gas companies, was active in the screener for a year. The stock delivered returns of 65% during the period starting June 30, 2023, to June 28, 2024.

    The tobacco major, Godfrey Phillips remained in the screener for two quarters, from September 30, 2022, to March 31, 2023. During this period, the company gave 58.5% returns. The company's decision in October 2022 to sell its chewing tobacco business and other trademarks allowed it to concentrate on the cigarette business. Consequently, its net profit surged by 57.6% YoY in FY23 to Rs 690.5 crore.

    Lastly, Kalyan Jewellers India, active in the screener from June 30, 2023, to September 29, 2023, delivered a return of 46.7%. The rise came after the company’s net profit surged by 33.3% in Q1FY24 to Rs 143.9 crore, aided by expansions in northern regions of India and the UAE.

    Adani Ports leads in one-year gain among active stocks

    Let’s now focus on the quarterly and yearly price change percentages of stocks currently active in the screener. Packaged foods company Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation’s stock price rose by 46.2% in the past quarter and 104.3% in the past year. The company’s net profit increased by 189.6% YoY in Q3FY24, followed by a surge of 116.1% in Q4FY24.

    Marine port & services company, Adani Ports & SEZ witnessed its share price surge by 14% in the past quarter and 106.5% in the past year. The company delivered a volume CAGR of 15% over FY19-24 outperforming volume CAGR of 4% for all ports in India.

    Meanwhile, industrial products manufacturerJindal Saw’s share price soared by 13.7% in the past quarter with gains of 78.4% in the past year. Ambuja Cement, on the other hand, witnessed a 12.9% uptick in its stock price in the past quarter and 64.5% in the past year.

    Lastly, Apollo Tyres saw its share price surge by 16.3% in the past quarter, with over 32.4% gains in the past year. In FY24, this tyre manufacturer brought down its debt significantly by Rs 1,646 crore to Rs 3,942 crore due to 61.2% higher cash from operations on a YoY basis.

    In summary, the screening criteria results in stocks that can potentially deliver medium to long-term gains with moderate risk, as suggested by the max drawdown of 29.9%. Despite uncertainties like the Covid pandemic and highly volatile election periods, this screener gave a mean quarterly return of 9.7%. It also consistently held an average stock count of 4.7, implying diversified investment, except for Q1FY21 when it had no stocks.

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    The Baseline
    12 Jul 2024
    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 12, 2024

    Five Interesting Stocks Today - July 12, 2024

    1. Rail Vikas Nigam (RVNL):

    This railway construction firm surged to a new 52-week high of Rs 645 on Friday after rising 49.7% in the past week. RVNL is engaged in the complete life cycle of projects in railway track construction, railway electrification, and signalling solutions. The surge followed the company's receipt of a LoA from Maharashtra Metro Rail Corp. for the construction of six new elevated metro stations in Nagpur, worth Rs 187.3 crore. The company also emerged as the lowest bidder for a South Eastern Railway contract worth Rs 202.9 crore. 

    All major railway stocks, IRFC, RVNL, and IRCON International, have risen sharply in the past week after Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw announced plans to introduce 2,500 new general passenger coaches and 10,000 non-AC coaches. He also announced the production of fifty new Amrit Bharat trains, known for their high-speed and luxury services. RVNL stands to benefit from these plans as it is involved in the construction and maintenance of coach manufacturing factories.

    RVNL reported an 8.4% YoY revenue growth to Rs 23,075 crore in FY24, with net profit increasing by 10.8% YoY to Rs 1,574 crore. The company’s order book at the end of FY24 stood at Rs 85,000 crore, with around 40-45% coming from bidding orders, which have margins higher than 10%, while the rest is from nomination projects.

    Director of Operations, Rajesh Prasad, said, “The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor announced in the G20 summit has got big opportunities for RVNL basically in the railway segment.” He highlights that the project is still in the concept stage and RVNL is certainly going to benefit when execution starts.

    IDBI Capital maintains a ‘Hold’ rating on RVNL as the company plans bids for high-speed rail projects under the Viksit Bharat 2047 scheme (currently, they have no exposure to this segment). The brokerage is optimistic given the company’s guidance for net profit growth of 10-15% in FY25, and its focus on improving EBITDA margins by targeting bidding projects.

    2. NBCC (India):

    This construction and engineering company has risen 20.9% in the past month and hit its all-time high of Rs 198.3 on Tuesday. The surge came after the company secured multiple orders worth Rs 1,120.3 crore, including major projects in urban development, educational institutions, and infrastructure.

    NBCC witnessed strong growth in FY24, with a 50.6% YoY increase in net profit to Rs 401.6 crore and a 19% rise in revenue to Rs 10,666.7 crore. This was driven by growth in its project management consultancy (PMC) and engineering, procurement & construction (EPC) segments. The company has underperformed the booming construction industry by 321.8% over the past five years, despite rising by 246%. NBCC aims to overcome this by focusing on redevelopment and real estate sectors.

    The company plans to sustain growth momentum by focusing on its order book, and expects to secure Rs 25,000 crore in new orders in FY25 across housing, railway, metro, and renewable energy sectors. The company holds a current under-execution order book of Rs 20,000 crore and intends to tender projects worth Rs 15,000 crore, aiming to achieve Rs 13,000 crore in revenue for FY25.

    Commenting on the new orders, Chairman and MD, K. P. Mahadeva Swamysaid, "We have won a record new business worth Rs 23,500 crore, which is more than 250% of the previous year. Our order book stands at Rs 64,900 crore, and we expect to achieve a top line of Rs 12,350 - 13,000 crore in FY25, driven by our focus on real estate and infrastructure projects."

    Geojit BNP Paribas has upgraded the stock to a ‘Hold’ rating from ‘Sell’, with a target price of Rs 176. The brokerage expects FY25 and FY26 EPS to rise by 10% and 6%, respectively, driven by robust tendering and execution. However, the firm is in the PE Sell Zone, currently trading above its historical PE.

    3. Tata Elxsi:

    This IT software & services company fell over 2.2% on Thursday as its net profit declined by 6.5% QoQ (-2.5% YoY) to Rs 184.1 crore in Q1FY25, missing Forecaster estimates by 6.3%. The fall was due to higher employee benefits expenses and raw material costs. In addition, EBITDA margins contracted 160 bps QoQ to 27.2% during the quarter. However, on Friday, the stock recovered its previous day’s losses and was up 1.6%, with the broader IT industry rising 4.9% on the back of positive results by heavyweight TCS. 

    Tata Elxsi’s revenue grew by 2.3% QoQ (9% YoY) to Rs 926.5 crore, due to growth in the software development & services or SDS segment, which contributes 97% of the total revenue. The SDS segment consists of transportation, media & communication, and healthcare verticals. 

    During the quarter, the transportation vertical’s revenue grew 5.3% QoQ driven by deal wins, while that of the media vertical rose marginally by 0.5% QoQ. Meanwhile, the healthcare vertical remained muted, as its revenue fell by 4.3% QoQ.  This was due to delayed renewals of some projects by a large US client.

    Commenting on the outlook, CEO & MD Manoj Raghavan said, “We expect continued growth in the transportation segment, led by a strong deal pipeline, particularly in the OEM space”. He sees green shots in the media & communication vertical and highlights the company’s M&A plans going ahead. For FY25, Raghavan projects EBITDA margins in the range of 28-29%.

    JPMorgan retains its ‘Underweight’ call on Tata Elxsi, with a price target of Rs 5,800. It believes the positive surprise in the transport vertical will be offset by headwinds persisting in the healthcare business. The brokerage cuts its earnings estimate by 2-4% over FY25-27 due to higher tax rates. The company is in the PE Sell Zone, indicating it is currently trading above its historical PE.

    4. Indigo Paints:

    This paints company rose by 10.2% over the past week as major industry players, Asian Paints and Berger Paints are expected to hike prices by 0.7-1%. Nuvama stated that the price increase is a proactive measure to compete against Birla Opus, a newcomer, and maintain healthy profit margins. For FY24, the company’s net profit increased by 11.7% YoY to Rs 147.3 crore, while its revenue rose by 21.7% YoY. The stock shows up in a screener for stocks with strong momentum.

    In the past five years, the company’s revenue grew by 20% CAGR, the highest among its peers. It currently ranks as the fifth-largest producer of decorative paints in the country. Recently, it acquired a 51% stake in Apple Chemie India (ACIL) to enter the Waterproofing and Construction Chemicals (WPCC) segment whose FY24 market size was expected to be Rs 20,105.6 crore with a CAGR growth of 13.9% over 2025-33.

    The company also launched a new water-based paint facility in Tamil Nadu and is expanding its capacities for both solvent-based and water-based paints in Rajasthan. The company currently operates five manufacturing units and its production volumes have risen in key segments like cement paints and putty.

    Analysts expect the Indian paint industry to grow at a CAGR of ~12.7% from FY25 to FY27, reaching a market size of ~Rs 1 lakh crore. They highlight that the frequency of home repainting has improved, from every 7-8 years in FY13 to 4-5 years in FY23, indicating a growing paint consumption trend in India. Additionally, the Indian government has raised its infrastructure budget by 11% for FY25. These factors are expected to be key growth catalysts for the company.

    Keynote Capital has given Indigo Paints a “Buy” rating, with a target price of Rs 1,594. The brokerage notes that the company has consistently achieved growth rates of 2-2.5X compared to its peers. We expect IPL to grow its revenue by 18% in FY25 and, due to operating leverage, expect margin to improve further.

    5. Zydus Lifesciences:

    This pharma company rose by 3.4% in the past week and hit an all-time high of Rs 1,203 on Thursday. The company also appears in a screener for stocks outperforming their respective industry over the last quarter.

    The price rise followed multiple approvals by the US FDA. The firm won approval for Sacubitril and Valsartan, used to treat chronic heart failure. These tablets have annual sales of $5.5 billion. In the past week, it also received US FDA approval to market diroximel fumarate delayed-release capsules, a treatment for multiple sclerosis, which has annual sales of $847.4 million. 

    Zydus Lifesciences has been busy over the past month – it received approval for azilsartan, indicated for the treatment of hypertension to lower blood pressure. Azilsartan has annual sales of $89 million. Zydus and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories also announced a licensing agreement for the co-marketing of a pertuzumab biosimilar, a critical treatment for breast cancer patients in India.

    Trendlyne Forecaster estimates Zydus Lifesciences’ net profit to rise 5.5% YoY in Q1FY25. In FY24, the company’s profit grew by 102.3% YoY to Rs 3,972.8 crore, while its revenue improved by 13.8% YoY. It also beat Trendlyne Forecaster’s net profit estimate by 7.8%. Speaking about the growth outlook, Managing Director Sharvil Patel says, “We expect all our businesses to register high-teen growth. We also expect to comfortably maintain FY24 margins of 27.5% in the coming year, and we will do our best to improve those margins.”

    Geojit BNP Paribas is positive about Zydus Lifesciences due to new drug launches and its existing portfolio. However, the brokerage states that the company’s valuations are looking expensive. The firm is trading in the PE Sell Zone.

    Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

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    The Baseline
    11 Jul 2024
    The big winners: Five stocks expected to top the Q1FY25 results season | Screener: Stocks with upcoming results and rising share prices

    The big winners: Five stocks expected to top the Q1FY25 results season | Screener: Stocks with upcoming results and rising share prices

    By Tejas MD

    It’s a great time to be a stock market investor. The benchmark Nifty 50 is up 11.7% post election, and has risen 26.4% in the past year. In fact, between June 25 and July 4, records fell left and right as the Nifty hit its lifetime high in every single trading session and closed in the green for a fifth straight week. 

    So right now, most investors are looking at their portfolios and feeling like geniuses. Over 50% of Nifty500 stocks are near their 52 week highs. In this bull market, losers are few. But how long will the party last?

    Analysts are divided on this. While some think this is the best time to invest in the Indian stock market, many are skeptical. 

    Kotak Securities expects Nifty 50 companies’ Q1FY25 profit to be flat YoY and decline 10.7% QoQ. Downbeat Q1 results could lead to a correction in a stock market many already find too hot, according to Bloomberg. 

    The results season will dictate the market direction, alongside the Union budget on July 23. We take a look at five growth stocks that are expected to stand out from the pack. 

    In this week’s Analyticks, 

    • Q1FY25 pre-results special: Five companies set to zoom with high growth, even in a weak results season
    • Screener: Upcoming results for Nifty500 stocks which delivered 10%+ revenue and profit growth in FY24

    The big winners: Five stocks expected to top the Q1FY25 results season

    Analysts have been picking their favourite stocks ahead of the Q1FY25 results. Among these, we shortlisted five Nifty 500 companies that are predicted to post especially high revenue and net profit growth both YoY and QoQ in the June quarter, according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster. What’s more? These companies already set the bar high with strong results in Q4FY24.

    Growth stocks in focus are from five different industries

    All five stocks in focus, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (AHEL), Natco Pharma, Varun Beverages (VBL), KPIT Technologies, and Bajaj Auto are from different industries. 

    Except for Apollo Hospitals, all stocks have risen sharply over the past year, and have also outperformed the Nifty 50.

    Only Apollo Hospitals lags Nifty 50 in the past year

    As a result of the upswing, the Trendlyne Momentum scores for these companies range from neutral to high, indicating buying interest in the market. However, low Valuation scores for Apollo Hospitals, Varun Beverages and KPIT Tech are a sign that they may be expensively priced. 

    Natco Pharma top of the five, with good Durability, Valuation and Momentum scores

    These companies also have high durability scores, thanks to strong financials and management stability. 

    AHEL’s hospitals and labs to drive growth, but expensive valuation raises concerns 

    Apollo Hospitals, the first hospital to be included in the Nifty 50 index, is expected to see a sharp rise in revenue (+54.6%) and net profit (139.7%) YoY in Q1FY25. 

    Apollo Hospital’s revenue to grow both YoY and QoQ in Q1FY25

    Healthcare services like hospitals, and diagnostics & retail health segments are expected to increase margins and drive revenue. The company’s digital business, which includes Apollo 24x7, is still spending more than it earns, and is expected to breakeven in the next six to eight quarters. 

    Apollo’s competitive advantage lies in its omnichannel brand presence: it's no longer just a hospital. From clinics, hospitals and diagnostics to pharmacies (online and offline), vertical integration is helping the company to acquire customers from one business unit to another. 

    Analysts are positive about the company as it is adding new beds, increasing high-margin surgeries, and broadening its test menu in the diagnostics segment.  

    However, analysts believe the hospital’s recent fundraising of Rs 2,475 crore through private equity firm Advent International for its Apollo 24/7 was lower than expected. When the fundraising announcement came out on April 29, the stock fell 8% intraday. But the share price has recovered since, as investors look ahead to its Q1FY25 results. With high profits expected, the company’s PE is also elevated at 103 but is in the neutral zone according to its historical averages.

    Landmark anti-cancer drug boosts Natco Pharma, generic weight loss drugs in the pipeline

    This pharma company is a specialist in complex generic products, with a focus on high-risk, high-reward drug launches in the US. Natco's export formulations make up 81% of its total revenue. This segment grew 35% in Q4FY24, mainly due to its anti-cancer drug gRevlimid.

    Analysts expect these gains to continue in Q1FY25, and for a few more quarters. The stock has a PE of 15.6 and is in the PE Strong Buy Zone indicating that it is currently trading far below its historical PE.

    gRevlimid sales to drive Natco Pharma’s topline in Q1FY25 

    To offset slowing sales from Revlimid down the line, the management plans to launch 6-7 more niche products. Drugs in the pipeline include generic Ozempic and Wegovy - the blockbuster weight loss and antidiabetic drugs - and gLynparza (anti-cancer). Natco is also banking on new first-to-file (FTF) opportunities as other companies' drug patents expire.  

    The company is also focusing on acquisitions in emerging markets. The management plans to use its cash in hand (Rs 2,004 crore available) to fund acquisitions. Rajeev Nannapaneni, CEO of Natco Pharma said, “Emerging markets give you more broad-based earnings, and consistent earnings. Acquisition there is the way to go. Acquisitions in India in comparison, are very expensive.” 

    Varun Beverages continues its momentum, expansion in Africa set to be the next growth driver

    Varun Beverages is the largest bottler of PepsiCo's beverages globally, outside the US. This company’s share price has nearly doubled in the past year and has jumped by 6.7X in the last three years. VBL’s revenue and net profit are expected to rise by 31.8% and 34.1% YoY in Q1FY25. However, the company is in the PE Sell Zone indicating that it is currently pretty expensive and trading above its historical PE. 

    Lower input prices drive margin higher in Q4FY24

    Varun Bev plans to increase its international revenue (20% of its sales volume now) and is expanding its footprint in Africa through capacity expansions, acquisitions and licensing rights from PepsiCo. In the Q4FY24 earnings call, Ravi Jaipuria, VBL’s Chairman, mentioned that the Africa business unit is expected to be a major growth engine in revenue and profitability. 

    But a growing threat for the company is its rival Coca-Cola's plan to sell a part of its bottling business, Hindustan Coca-Cola Beverages (HCCB). Coca Cola is eyeing an investment of about US$ 800 m to US$ 1 billion in a bid to grow its business and capture market share in India.

    Demand for EVs and passenger vehicles fuels KPIT Tech’s growth

    ThisIT software company hasrisen by an impressive 61.6% in the past year, outperforming theNifty IT by 24.5 percentage points.KPIT Technologies provides engineering solutions for firms in  the booming CASE (Connected Autonomous Shared and Electric) auto segment. KPIT Tech’s revenue and net profit areexpected to rise both YoY and QoQ in Q1FY25.

    However, the company is in the PE Sell Zone and is currently trading above its historical PE. 

    Rising EV demand to help KPIT Tech’s topline growth

    For FY25, the revenue growth guidance for the IT sector overall is weak. Tier-1 companies are expected to post low single-digit growth, and Tier-2 high-single-digit growth. But KPIT Tech is expected to see 22.4% revenue growth in FY25.  

    S.B. Ravi Pandit, Co-Founder and Chairman believes that the outperformance is due to the company’s focus on the mobility industry. 

    The growth in the mobility & autonomous space is driving revenue for KPIT. Feature development and integration for auto bodies and auto electronics was the fastest-growing segment for KPIT in Q4FY24, with a rise of 29.4% YoY. This segment contributes to 62% of the total revenue. The company plans to build more domain expertise by adding more capabilities through joint ventures and acquisitions.

    Analysts expect Bajaj Auto’s exports to rebound, add to topline growth

    The auto & auto components sector has had a pretty good year, with the sector rising 76.6%. But Bajaj Auto has outperformed its sector, and risen 105.9% over the same period. Despite this rise, the TTM PE ratio of this stock (34.5) is lower than its industry average of 39.4. 

    Domestic sales have outshone exports in the past year for Bajaj Auto. The 125+ cc segment, which contributes to 75% of the domestic revenue, drove revenue growth on the back of new product launches. 

    Overall sales are up, despite muted exports. The company’s export volumes in FY24 were at 65% of the peak seen in FY22. However, analysts expect export markets to recover from the macroeconomic issues they faced in the last two years. This gives Bajaj a lot of room to grow.

    Analysts expect Bajaj Auto’s exports to recover in Q1FY25

    Analysts also expect growth from domestic premiumisation and export recovery within 3-Wheelers (3W) as the company expands its footprint in CNG 3W and e-autos. 


    Screener: Upcoming results for Nifty500 companies which delivered strong FY24 net profit and revenue growth

    Finance and IT stocks rise ahead of Q1 results

    As the results season starts, we take a look at rising stocks which already saw high growth in net profit and revenue for FY24. This screener shows companies whose share prices are rising as results come up, and with over 10% net profit and revenue growth in FY24. 

    The screener is dominated by stocks from the asset management, banking, NBFC and IT consulting & services industries. Major companies that feature in the screener are Persistent Systems, Elecon Engineering, HDFC Life Insurance, HDFC Asset Management, Crisil, L&T Technology Services, Anand Rathi, and Havells India.

    Persistent Systems has risen 20.4% over the past month. This IT software & services company’s net profit increased by 18.7% YoY to Rs 1093.5 crore in FY24, driven by improved sales, strong product development, and a well-balanced portfolio mix in the healthcare and BFSI segments. KR Choksey believes that the company’s financial performance will continue to beat its larger IT peers, but may witness a relative slowdown in FY25. Trendlyne’s Forecaster expects its net profit to grow by 32.4% YoY in Q1FY25.

    HDFC Life Insurance has risen by 10.9% over the past month ahead of its results, scheduled to be released on July 15. This life insurance company’s net profit grew by 15% YoY to Rs 1,574.1 crore in FY24 due to a higher-than-expected boost in its unit-linked insurance plans (ULIPs). Geojit BNP Paribas expects the company’s cross-selling with HDFC Bank to grow; its reach in tier 2 & 3 cities is also set to improve. Trendyne’s Forecaster estimates its net profit to grow by 25.2% YoY in Q1FY25. 

    You can find more screeners here.

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