National Aluminium Company Ltd. share price target

Our TP implies an upside of 10% from CMP. Consequently, we upgrade the stock to a BUY rating from a HOLD rating.

NACL is stepping up capex intensity; FY26 at INR 20bn, FY27E/FY28E planned at INR 20bn/40-50bn FY27E production for alumina: 2.5mt; metal: 0.473mt...

NALCO’s (NACL) revenue stood in line at INR50.1b (-5% YoY and +6% QoQ), mainly driven by favorable aluminum prices. Consol EBITDA stood at INR23.5b (-15% YoY and +8% QoQ), against our est. of INR26.4b, during the quarter.

National Aluminium Company’s (NALCO) Q4FY26 EBITDA of INR 23.4bn was 4% below our estimate, as lower alumina volumes and realisations offset higher LME aluminium gains.

NACL reported a weak Q4 with EBITDA at Rs23.5bn (+7.8% QoQ), 14.7% below consensus; aluminium performance improved on higher prices, while alumina EBITDA declined due to lower alumina sales during the quarter.

Our TP implies an upside of 2% from CMP. Consequently, we downgrade the stock to a HOLD rating from a BUY rating.

NALCO’s (NACL) 3QFY26 revenue came in line with our estimate at INR47.3b (+2% YoY and +10% QoQ), primarily driven by favorable aluminum prices.

NALCO (NACL)’s revenue stood at INR42.9b (+7% YoY and +13% QoQ) vs. our est. of INR37.1b. The growth was driven by favorable aluminum prices.

National Aluminium Company (NALCO)’s Q2FY26 EBITDA, at INR 19.2bn, was 29% ahead of our estimates, largely driven by a sharp increase in alumina sales volumes.

We maintain our BUY rating.

National Aluminum (NACL) reported weak operating performance in Q1FY26 on low pricing and higher other expenses. Alumina/metal volumes grew 3x/6% YoY to 304kt/113kt on weak base. Average Q1 alumina NSR declined 37% QoQ to USD 419/t, while that for metal declined 6% YoY to USD 2,791/t. RM costs increased led by an inch up in caustic soda prices, while other expenses were elevated on account of RPO obligation compliance costs and higher repairs/ coal transportation costs, leading to below estimate EBITDA delivery. Mgmt. reiterated FY26 alumina sales guidance at ~1.28mt, supported by higher...

alumina NSR improved 83% YoY to USD670/t, while that for metal grew 22% YoY to USD2,973/t on strong LME. EBITDA grew robust 149% YoY on favorable pricing and lean cost structure supported by captive coal. Mgmt. guided for...

We maintain our BUY rating.

Nalco posted a solid quarterly performance given EBITDA of Rs23.3bn (+21.1% vs Consensus; +26.1% vs Emkay; +50.3% QoQ), with the earnings beat led by higher alumina export volumes, while benefitting from elevated alumina prices.

We upgrade from HOLD to BUY.

National Aluminium Company’s (NALCO) EBITDA was significantly lower than our/consensus estimates. We estimate Alumina sales to be down 56% YoY while Aluminium sales to be down 11% YoY.

We downgrade to HOLD from BUY.