3310.40 -49.10 (-1.46%)
476.9K NSE+BSE Volume
NSEJun 16, 2021 03:31 PM
The 31 reports from 8 analysts offering long term price targets for Avenue Supermarts Ltd. have an average target of 2707.75. The consensus estimate represents a downside of -18.20% from the last price of 3310.40.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2021-05-11||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||Geojit BNP Paribas||2844.65||3130.00||2844.65 (16.37%)||Target met||Buy|
Geojit BNP Paribas
DMart reported healthy revenue growth of 18%YoY Vs. de-growth in the first two quarters. The overall sales was trending very close to pre-covid levels in the quarter and witnessed revival in discretionary products also, but on account of Covid second wave, significant disruptions have been witnessing since March 2021. ~80% of the stores are operating fewer hours than they normally do. The company has added 13 stores in Q4FY21 (22 stores in FY21 Vs 38 in FY20). The store additions are also likely to be impacted by the second wave in the short-term. However, we do not expect disruption like last year. The recent QIP of Rs.4,098cr will support future growth....
|2021-05-10||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||2852.45||2160.00||2852.45 (16.05%)||34.75||Sell|
DCB Bank: DCB Bank's (DCBB) 4QFY21 earnings were ahead of our expectations on account of lower-than-expected provisions. Asset mobilisation witnessed an uptick (2.4% YoY) after bottoming out in the previous quarter, while deposit mobilisation was largely driven by retail term deposits (+19% YoY). Asset quality remains along expected lines, although second wave of pandemic is likely to impair collection efficiency and slippages in the near term. We revise our FY22/FY23E earnings estimates downwards by 2.4%/3.5%, due to higher credit costs and moderation in loan growth expectations. Maintain ADD with revised TP of INR136. Inexpensive valuations and the bank's conservative approach to lending underpin our stance. Avenue Supermarts: D-MART delivered largely an in-line performance across most KPIs in 4Q. Topline grew 18% YoY. GPM/EBITDAM expanded 117/170bp YoY to 14.4/8.4% (HSIE: 14.9/8.6%). Topline remained essentials heavy, as expected. However, the rub lies beyond the FY21 print. Management highlighted that the second COVID wave has been more painful as (1) ~80% of stores were operating at 4 hours/day or are shut down momentarily and (2) a more optimistic inventory plan post the unlock has led to a problem of excess inventory since the second lockdown. While we taper down our FY22 recovery/profitability expectations, our FY23 EPS estimates remain largely unchanged (-3%). We maintain our SELL recommendation and DCF-based TP of INR 2,160/sh (implying 35x FY23 EV/EBITDA for std biz + 4x sales for e-comm business). Bandhan Bank: BANDHAN Banks 4QFY21 PPOP growth (14% YoY) was lower than our estimates, while lower-than-expected provisions drove the beat in earnings. Micro-credit (EEB)...
|2021-05-10||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||Axis Direct||2852.45||2890.00||2852.45 (16.05%)||Target met||Hold|
We expect the company to continue a healthy growth trajectory going forward on the back of further easing of lockdown and revival in discretionary sales such as apparel, laundry, footwear, travel and such relevant out-of-home usage categories.
|2021-05-09||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||2895.50||3130.00||2895.50 (14.33%)||Target met||Hold|
ICICI Securities Limited
The company accelerated its store addition pace with opening of 13 D-Mart stores in Q4FY21 (FY21: 22 stores). Capex also crossed last year's figure (| 2029 crore vs. 1712 crore in FY20). CWIP was at ~ | 1020 crore vs. | 364 crore in FY20, which indicates healthy store addition pipeline in FY22E. The company added ~1 million square feet during the year and also converted two stores to fulfilment centres (FC) to scale up its e-commerce business. Following subdued store addition pace in FY21E, we expect it to make up for the same in FY22E. We bake in 80 incremental stores in FY22-23E...
|2021-05-09||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||Motilal Oswal||2852.45||2850.00||2852.45 (16.05%)||Target met||Neutral|
The EBITDA margin was 80bp higher v/s pre-COVID levels, highlighting sustainable cost optimization during the pandemic period. Given the return of COVID-led lockdown, we cut our revenue/PAT estimates by 17%/21% for FY22, but largely maintain our FY23E estimates, factoring in a 23% revenue/PAT CAGR over FY2023E. Maintain Neutral....
|2021-05-08||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||2856.15||3360.00||2856.15 (15.90%)||1.50||Buy|
We cut our EPS estimates by 20.1%/4.7% in FY22/23 due to 1) Weak 1H outlook due to local restrictions 2) lower store opening assumptions by 5 stores each for FY22/23 3) interplay between average bill value and number of orders 4) sales mix impact in FY22 due to lack of non-essential sales....
|2021-04-26||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||2808.25||2160.00||2808.25 (17.88%)||34.75||Sell|
Focus on F&L segment rises, online stack becomes more potent: Along with the increasing F&L skew in revenue mix, e-tailers have stepped up efforts to improve profitability of their F&L verticals. GMs for e-tailers have significantly improved (4-13pp over FY17-20) due to increasing (a) sourcing margins on private labels and partner brands and (b) skew of fresh brand assortment. This, is partly a consequence of weak offline retailers attempting to release cash from working capital (note: contribution margins for both e-tailers Amazon and Flipkart - are now in the positive). This, along with their ever-increasing cloud/3P commission/ad-based services, is making the online stack more potent with time. In this instalment of the From a Disruptors Lens series, we assess key vitals of offline apparel (Previous edition tracked F&G;). The sight isnt pretty! Short of a few disciplined operators, most categories (especially their tails) perfectly fit our Prone-to-Disruption framework. Meanwhile, e-tailers have evidently stepped up efforts on (1) broadening their online stack (i.e. online consumer lifetime value (LTV) continues to increase with reducing CAC), (2) improving F&L; profitability and (3) expanding footprint. This can be vetted by Indias rising relevance in global e-tailers topline, profitability and capital allocation decisions. Against this backdrop, it is prudent to limit investment exposure to highly disciplined value retailers (largely off-limits to e-tail) such as V-MART and re-capitalised brands with reasonable consumer pull (ABFRL).
|2021-02-09||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||2925.00||2160.00||2925.00 (13.18%)||34.75||Sell|
Survivors don't offer any margin of safety: While consolidation in F&G is imminent, survivors (DMART) do not offer any margin of safety at 75x+ FY23 P/E. DMART's growth is likely to be healthy (21/23/23% revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR), largely underpinned by network expansion. Alas, pressure on sales velocity and margins remains probabilistically high as deep-pocketed operators enter DMART's key catchments. We maintain our SELL recommendation on DMART with a DCF-based TP: 2,160/sh implying 34x FY23 EV/EBITDA + 2x FY23 sales for e-comm. Note: we currently have an SOTP-based fair value of Rs. 3,743bn for RRVL, implying 20x FY23 EV/EBITDA + 3x FY23 sales for its e-comm business. The view from a disruptors lens is a salivating one as short of a few well-capitalised operators, the organised Food & Grocery ecosystem remains (1) profitless, (2) cash-strapped and (3) supported by increasing crutches (high gross margins, inefficient cost structures and increasing vendor support). Our read-through across the ecosystem suggests (1) the phase of capital dumping by global/domestic biggies may soon be upon us, (2) selection/pricing arbitrage vis-a-vis industry bellwether DMART continues to shrink, (3) margin cracks are imminent and (4) Reliance Retail-FRL combination could change the complexion of competition in top Indian districts.
|2021-02-08||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||Axis Direct||2984.40||3250.00||2984.40 (10.92%)||Target met||Buy|
Avenue Supermarts Limited is an India-based company, which owns and operates DMart stores. DMart is a supermarket chain that offers customers a range of home and personal products under one roof. We recommend a BUY with a target price of Rs 3250.
|2021-01-14||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||2820.95||2160.00||2820.95 (17.35%)||34.75||Sell|
Pent-up wedding demand + stable gold prices to aid fresh purchases: Pent-up wedding demand and stable gold prices is likely to aid fresh purchases. Value growth continues to lag volume growth courtesy elevated gold prices (+30%). Most big-box jewellers' sales are expected to grow by 5 to 15% in 3Q (channel checks). Assessing ex-pent up demand remains key. Revenue pick-up and costrationalisation to ensure margins hit near pre-COVID levels. Ex-apparel all categories pivot to growth: Ex-apparel, all consumer discretionary categories are likely to pivot from recovery to growth phase. Our universe is expected to deliver 9% YoY growth. We expect 15% agg. growth (ex-Apparel). While Apparel lags the discretionary pack, recovery remains encouraging, with most hitting 70-80% of base quarter sales. Ticket sizes, though normalising remain elevated from pre-COVID levels; ergo footfall recovery yet has some catching up to do. Losses are ebbing for apparel retailers, but this improvement continues to hinge on multiple crutches 1. Over-reliance on online platforms and rental concessions.
|2021-01-11||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||2984.85||2160.00||2984.85 (10.91%)||34.75||Sell|
While we increase our FY22/23 EPS estimates by 5-6% resp. to account for marginally higher revenue/sq. ft, we downgrade the stock to Sell (Earlier Reduce) as the recent run-up leaves no room for an investment case (DCF-based TP: 2,160/sh implying 34x FY23 EV/EBITDA + 2x FY23 sales for e-comm business). D-MART finally hits the growth phase (after a disappointing 1HFY21). The grocer clocked a healthy 10% topline growth (HSIE: 8.5%). While gross margin delivery was strong (15.1% vs HSIE: 14.8%), its underpinnings remain weak (on the back of lower discounting in staples). Non-essential sales remain weak. EBITDAM expanded 52/256bp YoY/QoQ to 9.3% courtesy strong cost control. (HSIE: 9%).
|2021-01-11||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||Geojit BNP Paribas||2820.95||3110.00||2820.95 (17.35%)||Target met||Hold|
Geojit BNP Paribas
DMart reported healthy revenue growth of 10%YoY post de-growth in the last two quarters on account of Covid-19 led disruption in the industry. The overall sales & sales mix is now trending very close to pre-covid level except for discretionary products like Apparel and footwear, which is taking more time to recover, as per management. The company has added only 1 store Vs 7 stores YoY duie to Covid-19 led disruptions (Added only 9 stores in 9MFY21 Vs 20 stores YoY). However, new store additions are likely to accelerate given recent QIP of Rs.4,098cr. DMart is now considering leased stores also to accelerate growth. DMart, improved its focus on E-Com business and has...
|2021-01-11||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||Axis Direct||2984.85||3250.00||2984.85 (10.91%)||Target met||Buy|
|2021-01-11||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||ICICI Securities Limited||2984.85||3130.00||2984.85 (10.91%)||Target met||Hold|
ICICI Securities Limited
In Q3FY21, we expect construction companies to return to topline growth driven by near optimum labour availability, pick-up in execution. For real estate companies, key highlight will be strong residential sales volumes growth led by factors like pent up demand, benign interest rates, measures like stamp duty cut in Maharashtra. However, financial numbers of real estate companies will look optically weak due to rental waiver in retail...
|2021-01-10||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||Prabhudas Lilladhar||2984.85||3296.00||2984.85 (10.91%)||Target met||Buy|
leasing of D'Mart store space for E-com operations. We retain Buy and increase our target price to Rs3296 (Rs2316 earlier) despite 52% appreciation since our upgrade in October. As post covid recovery catches up, D'Mart seems gaining confidence on expansion of D'Mart ready with 1) launch in Ahmedabad, Bangalore and Hyderabad 2) allocation of store...
|2020-12-22||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||Axis Direct||2625.75||3100.00||2625.75 (26.07%)||Target met||Buy|
|2020-10-21||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||Dolat Capital||2081.35||2063.00||2081.35 (59.05%)||Target met||Sell|
|2020-10-20||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||Geojit BNP Paribas||2116.55||2200.00||2116.55 (56.41%)||Target met||Hold|
|2020-10-19||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||HDFC Securities||2094.30||1850.00||2094.30 (58.07%)||44.12||Sell|
We maintain our FY22/23 EPS estimates and our Reduce recommendation with a DCF-based target price of Rs. 1,850/sh, implying 33.5x Sept-22 EV/EBITDA for standalone business + 2x sales for e-comm business). D-MART's 2Q revenue decline was a forgone conclusion, given its high exposure to some of the most impacted Indian districts. However, revenue recovery at 87.3% of the base quarter wasn't half as bad in our view. Margin delivery remains reasonable too in the context of "essentials-heavy" consumer wallets. However, non-essentials sales have been progressively recovering (73% base quarter sales). Steady cash flow generation YoY in the backdrop of 12/37% top-line/EBITDA cut YoY is commendable
|2020-10-18||Avenue Supermarts Ltd. +||Motilal Oswal||2094.30||2100.00||2094.30 (58.07%)||Target met||Neutral|