Bajaj Auto Ltd. share price target

Domestic demand appears to have slowed down in the first couple of months of FY27, with the Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) management expecting the industry to post 7-9% growth in the near term.

Bajaj Auto Ltd (BAL) is India's second-largest motorcycle manufacturer. It is India's largest three-wheeler maker. The company is based in Pune and has plants in Chakan (Pune), Waluj (near Aurangabad) and Pantnagar (Uttarakhand). It is the country's...

About the stock: Bajaj Auto (BAL) is the second largest motorcycle manufacturer and largest 3-W OEM domestically. It also has a presence in export markets. Structural Growth from Exports, EVs and Strong Cash Generation: Bajaj Auto's diversified earnings base provides strong downside protection and structural growth optionality. Exports crossed 600,000 units in Q4 (+25% YoY), marking the highest level in four years and reflecting broad-based recovery across key markets driven by sustained momentum in Latin America and improving stability in Africa with an aim to step-up to...

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Bajaj Auto’s (BJAUT) Q4FY26 operational performance surpassed our estimate. Growth in the domestic motorcycle industry is expected to moderate to ~7–9% in the near term due to price hike(s), manpower migration and weakening consumer sentiment.

Bajaj Auto’s (BJAUT) 4QFY26 earnings at INR27.2b were in line with our estimate. Favorable currency, price hikes, and an improved mix helped offset cost headwinds and maintain margins QoQ at 20.8% (in line).

About the stock: Bajaj Auto (BAL) is the second largest motorcycle manufacturer and largest 3-W OEM domestically. It also has a presence in export markets. Structural Growth from Exports, EVs and Strong Cash Generation: Bajaj Auto's diversified earnings base provides strong downside protection and structural growth optionality. Exports crossed 600,000 units in Q3 (+18% YoY), marking the highest level in four years and reflecting broad-based recovery across key markets, while reducing dependence on volatile geographies such as Nigeria. The EV business has reached a meaningful...

Domestic volumes grew ~3% YoY, driven by CV at 9% YoY, 2W (2% YoY) offsetting prior slump. Exports rose 18% YoY, helping realisations gains

Bajaj Auto (BJAUT)’s 3QFY26 earnings at INR25.5b were in line with our estimate. Favorable currency and improved mix helped offset cost headwinds and improve margins to 20.8% (in line).

We upgrade BJAUT to BUY from Add and roll forward our TP to Dec-27E, hoisting it ~17% to Rs11,100 (from Rs 9,500).

In the domestic motorcycle market, management looks to revive the lost market share, aided by new launches that include three Pulsar variants, a new 125cc model, and a few other premium models.

In domestic sales, premium bikes and commercial vehicles demonstrated strong performance owing to the festive season. This trend is expected to continue along with benefits due to a reduction in GST rates. Demand for transportation in middle India is surging, and the company anticipates the three-wheeler strategies to continue to drive growth, enabling Bajaj Auto to outperform the industry. The recently launched e-rickshaw, along with the fit-for-purpose' portfolio, is expected to further enhance profit and drive revenue in the future. However, supply-chain...

Bajaj Auto’s consolidated revenue from operations grew 18.8% YoY (+19.8% QoQ) to INR 1,57,347 Mn, beating our estimates, led by broad-based strength across exports, premium motorcycles, and commercial vehicles. Export volumes surged 24% YoY, delivering the highest-ever quarterly export revenue, aided by strong traction in LATAM, Asia, and Africa, with notable contributions from Colombia, Mexico, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Bajaj Auto’s (BJAUT) Q2FY26 operational performance was broadly in line with our estimate. Domestic 2W industry growth is expected to pick-up pace (~6-8% volume growth) going ahead led by the benefit of GST rationalisation and strong festive season.

Aggregate domestic market volumes fell by ~5% YoY (2-W fell 6% too), offset by robust export market growth of ~19% YoY in Q2FY26

Bajaj Auto’s (BJAUT) 2QFY26 earnings at INR24.8b were broadly in line with our estimate. While margins were 50bp ahead of expectations at 20.5%, led by an improved mix and favorable currency, lower other income limited earnings upside.

Quarter of milestones, EV and exports to fuel growth About the stock: Bajaj Auto (BAL) is the second largest motorcycle manufacturer and largest 3-W OEM domestically. It also has a presence in export markets. Strong momentum across core and new growth drivers: Bajaj Auto saw broad-based recovery across domestic, export, and EV segments, reflecting the company's strategic agility and diversified portfolio. Exports reached an all-time high, supported by geographical diversification and local assembly initiatives in Latin America, ensuring resilience against...

We reiterate our “ACCUMULATE” rating on the stock, owing to sustained double-digit export growth and a calibrated ramp-up in EV-2Ws, which will support the margin expansion.

BJAUT’s 1QFY26 earnings at INR20.6b beat our estimate of INR19.8b, aided by higher-than-expected other income even as margins were in line with our estimate at 19.7%.